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Agree the Spurs could be quite good on offense. So many were surprised how strong they were against Phoenix who shouldn’t have been. Bowen was more aggressive last year on offense, which might decline, but not because of Scola. who is staying in Spain for another year. They did sign fellow Olympics mate Fabricio Oberto, but he’ll likely take very few shots (and be happy for it).

Glenn Robinson is not a lock to be resigned, though could be a wild card punch if fully integrated into their offense off the bench.

Barry could be more of a factor now that fitting in and confidence are no longer such problems.

Who is likely to be more efficient than Miami? If Miami’s efficiency could decline then everyone else could get worse too. Below are a handful of teams poised to be the league leader or to at least make a big improvement over last season.

* Phoenix, last year’s leader, could get worse. They will eventually need to incorporate new players who will have to find their shots. Joe Johnson will ultimately be moved, but will it be to Atlanta? Who knows? So really, other than Stoudemire and Nash it’s not entirely clear who will suit up for the Suns this fall. Still, it seems unlikely the Suns’ efficiency will slide dramatically. Nash is Nash. Kurt Thomas lives on the pick-and-pop, and Stoudemire is still improving. However, they could easily lose 5 points off last year’s efficiency.

* San Antonio seems to me very likely to make a big jump in efficiency. Their weakest offensive player, Bowen, could see his minutes reduced with the arrival of Luis Scola and a rejuvanated Big Dog (a career 48.5% efg). Add in Nazr Mohammed, who scores almost exclusively on put-backs, and there aren’t a lot of bad shooters on that team.

* Seattle was 3rd in efficiency, only a tenth of a point behind Miami. I see no reason for them to fall off considerably, though they have some questions. It’ll be interesting to see what impact, if any, increased minutes will have on Ridenour’s efficiency. Right now they don’t have anyone else. (They just signed Brunson)

* Indiana was an artificially low 19th in efficiency. That was clearly the impact of the suspensions and other injuries. The Pacers, like the Spurs, could easily play themselves into the top 5 if not the league lead.

As I see it, Toine will bring the average efficiency down but won’t have as big an impact as he did on other teams. Boston was desparate for an offensive alternative to PP, Dallas was coached by a scoring-happy muppet, and Atl signed him with the intent of letting him chuck as much as he wanted. So for different reasons all those teams tolerated or encouraged it he when would dribble around the court erractically for 15 seconds and throw up terrible shots. I think he’ll get better shots as a result of Shaq and D-wade double teams and Van Gundy will yank his chubby ass as soon as he begins to get silly.

Williams’ passing will be an improvement over Jones. Walker’s scoring will more than compensate for Eddie Jones (more points out of the same percentage = higher efficiency). Posey won’t impact the offense much one way or another and Walker’s rebounding will be key. Shaq continues to hit 60% and Wade continues to improve.

All said, Miami gets a little better.

Whether Damon Jones shoots worse without Shaq isn’t relevant. He’s actually been a decent 3pt shooter throughout his career, though I think we can probably agree that Shaq (and Wade) helped him a lot by giving him open looks. The point I’m making here is that the relevant question is what Jones can do with Shaq, etc. because if he returns he’ll have Shaq et al as teammates.

The real wildcard here is Antoine Walker. He hasn’t been able to sublimate his ego for the good of any team he’s played for, so I don’t see why we should believe he’ll start now. I fully expect Udonis Haslem to play more minutes than ‘toine and I also expect ‘toine to bitch about it. He remains the captain of my “Players I Wouldn’t Take on My Team For Free All-Stars”.

Any team with Shaq is gonna have a highly ranked offense. The question is how much of the time they WILL have Shaq. I’m saying they’ll slip a bit to 3rd.

And I think Shaq will help ‘Toine immensely, (provided ‘Toine doesn’t revert to his lazy way of shooting 3′s). It’s Williams I’m more concerned about hurting their accuracy. But they’re still a scary scary team.

– Shaq will miss even more time with injury
– Antoine Walker will not help the offense
– Damon Jones will be gone
– Dwayne Wade will not be as healthy as he was last year
– The loss of Eddie Jones will be more of a problem than people think

All of that being said, the Heat will still be a really good team offensivly. It’s just with all of those variables working against them, I wouldn’t bank on them being AS good on O. These are the kind of moves that when you’re 12 you think is a total steal for the team getting all of the “stars.” Once you’ve seen enough fantasy style squads like Barkley, Pippen, Olajuwon and Drexler or Moses Malone, Reggie Theus, Doc Rivers, Dominique Wilkens, or even last years hall of fame Lakers you realize there’s a lot more to the game than putting the biggest names in one starting lineup and ordering your rings.

I know this is a thread about Miami’s offense, but the best guy they got in this deal is the one nobody is talking about and that’s Posey. From what I’ve seen of him even back in college, he defends the wing really well and is a reasonable role player on O. These are the pieces Miami should have been looking to add this offseason. With all of the moves they made and money they spent, I’m not sure overall they’re any better.