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Friday, October 24, 2014

Miami Heat 2006 Poll

Continuing with the summer of polls, I ask my readers this question:

Where will Miami’s offense rank next year?

Last year Miami was ranked 2nd overall with an offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) of 108.2. So far this offseason, they’ve acquired Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, James Posey, and NBDLer Earl Barron. On the minus side, Miami has lost Eddie Jones, Rasual Butler, and Qyntel Woods.

17 comments on “Miami Heat 2006 Poll

  1. Kareem

    Wow, this is a great question. I would say we’re assuming that everyone holds up to the same level of health as last year. If Damon Jones stays, I would say they’ll be better, but it’s a tricky one. I don’t want to turn this into the same conversation as the Quenton poll, but To me, it’s all going to come down to if Miami gets the well rounded Antoine Walker from Kentucky, or NBA superstar Cybertwan.

    How many min. will he play? Will he be able to control his want to “dominate” the offense? Personally, I would have tried to find a bigger, shot blocking, version of Udonis Haslem instead of messing with the 2nd best offense in the league.

  2. Carlos

    Hard to say. None of the three new players is a especially efficient shooter (at least not as efficient as Eddie Jones) and Posey, in particular, played like crap last season. Williams is an above average point guard (at least on the offensive side) but if Damon Jones leaves, there will be no much improvement over last year at the position. Walker has shown an amazing ability to shoot the same low percentage no matter where he is, Dallas or Atlanta, so I have some doubts about his usefulness in Miami. Maybe as an instant offense sixth man?? Posey is a good defender, but I’m uncertain about his true offensive skills ?Is he the below average scorer he was for several years? ?Is he the excellent scorer of 03-04? ?Is he the disaster of 04-05?

  3. Kevin Pelton

    I hate to cop out, but I don’t see how I can answer without knowing whether Jones will be back. I think he was a lot more key to their offense than conventionally believed.

  4. Andy

    I think Walker will only hurt the offensive efficiency of the Heat. Bill Simmons had a great comment. If the Heat were down by 2 with a minute and a half left and Walker was open from 26 feet, does anyone see him not taking that shot. This isn’t meant as a total knock on Walker. He was without a doubt the key to Boston winning the Atlantic last year, basically because of one long winnning streak. But at the same time, ‘Toine shooting threes means less drives for Wade and less dunks for Shaq, no other way about it.

  5. Andy

    Just had to respond to a few of the above comments. No way is Walker being a sixth man. Last time he tried that he ended up in Atlanta. No way is Jones in the same league as Williams as a point guard. This was a big upgrade. Williams has been out of the spotlight with his minutes down playing without any other really gifted offensive stars. He will get right back into the star he was with the Kings. I’d hate to have to choose between guarding him or Wade coming on the break.

  6. McDaddy11

    This change will help J.Williams and Posey if he stays healthy will become star, but for Walker I dont know what to say, I dont think he is good teammate. We all know what brings titles, its D-FENCE

  7. Kareem

    Well, if we’re taking everything into account, I would say it’s more likely than not that:

    — Shaq will miss even more time with injury
    — Antoine Walker will not help the offense
    — Damon Jones will be gone
    — Dwayne Wade will not be as healthy as he was last year
    — The loss of Eddie Jones will be more of a problem than people think

    All of that being said, the Heat will still be a really good team offensivly. It’s just with all of those variables working against them, I wouldn’t bank on them being AS good on O. These are the kind of moves that when you’re 12 you think is a total steal for the team getting all of the “stars.” Once you’ve seen enough fantasy style squads like Barkley, Pippen, Olajuwon and Drexler or Moses Malone, Reggie Theus, Doc Rivers, Dominique Wilkens, or even last years hall of fame Lakers you realize there’s a lot more to the game than putting the biggest names in one starting lineup and ordering your rings.

    I know this is a thread about Miami’s offense, but the best guy they got in this deal is the one nobody is talking about and that’s Posey. From what I’ve seen of him even back in college, he defends the wing really well and is a reasonable role player on O. These are the pieces Miami should have been looking to add this offseason. With all of the moves they made and money they spent, I’m not sure overall they’re any better.

  8. Greebo

    oooh, losing Qyntel Woods. That’s gonna hurt ‘em.

    Any team with Shaq is gonna have a highly ranked offense. The question is how much of the time they WILL have Shaq. I’m saying they’ll slip a bit to 3rd.

    And I think Shaq will help ‘Toine immensely, (provided ‘Toine doesn’t revert to his lazy way of shooting 3’s). It’s Williams I’m more concerned about hurting their accuracy. But they’re still a scary scary team.

  9. Scott Carefoot

    Kevin: You really think switching Damon Jones with White Chocolate will significantly hurt the offence? I bet that Damon won’t shoot 43 percent from beyond the arc if he’s not playing with Shaq.

    The real wildcard here is Antoine Walker. He hasn’t been able to sublimate his ego for the good of any team he’s played for, so I don’t see why we should believe he’ll start now. I fully expect Udonis Haslem to play more minutes than ‘toine and I also expect ‘toine to bitch about it. He remains the captain of my “Players I Wouldn’t Take on My Team For Free All-Stars”.

  10. Kevin Broom

    Posey would have been a good acquisition for them if they weren’t also bringing in Walker. Not saying that Posey still isn’t a good pickup — I just think that Walker (especially at that pricetag) is a bad one. White Chocolate could be okay if he’ll play defense and make basketball plays instead of And1 stuff.

    Whether Damon Jones shoots worse without Shaq isn’t relevant. He’s actually been a decent 3pt shooter throughout his career, though I think we can probably agree that Shaq (and Wade) helped him a lot by giving him open looks. The point I’m making here is that the relevant question is what Jones can do with Shaq, etc. because if he returns he’ll have Shaq et al as teammates.

  11. Ricky

    Trying to predict where Miami will rank, is an extremely hard proposition. Basically you’d have to start with where they were last year, weigh the impact of each departed/acquired player, project whose game will improve/deteriorate,
    predict injuries, consider changes the coach might make and then do the same for every other team in the league. I’ll address how Miami will change but not necessarily where they’ll rank.

    As I see it, Toine will bring the average efficiency down but won’t have as big an impact as he did on other teams. Boston was desparate for an offensive alternative to PP, Dallas was coached by a scoring-happy muppet, and Atl signed him with the intent of letting him chuck as much as he wanted. So for different reasons all those teams tolerated or encouraged it he when would dribble around the court erractically for 15 seconds and throw up terrible shots. I think he’ll get better shots as a result of Shaq and D-wade double teams and Van Gundy will yank his chubby ass as soon as he begins to get silly.

    Williams’ passing will be an improvement over Jones. Walker’s scoring will more than compensate for Eddie Jones (more points out of the same percentage = higher efficiency). Posey won’t impact the offense much one way or another and Walker’s rebounding will be key. Shaq continues to hit 60% and Wade continues to improve.

    All said, Miami gets a little better.

  12. McDaddy11

    Its a good thing Walker went to Miami, not to Knicks, that would kill me. He will break the chemistry there, and I dont care. they will be lookin for trade in january. I just hope that I.Thomas in that time will be very happy man. That was great day when walker went to Miami, all my problems disappeard. Cant wait to see him shoot the ball from 30 feet off the drible.

  13. dave

    Because KB asked about ranking (rather than efficiency per se), and in the interest of opening this up a tad, I suppose we should consider the other piece to this puzzle.

    Who is likely to be more efficient than Miami? If Miami’s efficiency could decline then everyone else could get worse too. Below are a handful of teams poised to be the league leader or to at least make a big improvement over last season.

    * Phoenix, last year’s leader, could get worse. They will eventually need to incorporate new players who will have to find their shots. Joe Johnson will ultimately be moved, but will it be to Atlanta? Who knows? So really, other than Stoudemire and Nash it’s not entirely clear who will suit up for the Suns this fall. Still, it seems unlikely the Suns’ efficiency will slide dramatically. Nash is Nash. Kurt Thomas lives on the pick-and-pop, and Stoudemire is still improving. However, they could easily lose 5 points off last year’s efficiency.

    * San Antonio seems to me very likely to make a big jump in efficiency. Their weakest offensive player, Bowen, could see his minutes reduced with the arrival of Luis Scola and a rejuvanated Big Dog (a career 48.5% efg). Add in Nazr Mohammed, who scores almost exclusively on put-backs, and there aren’t a lot of bad shooters on that team.

    * Seattle was 3rd in efficiency, only a tenth of a point behind Miami. I see no reason for them to fall off considerably, though they have some questions. It’ll be interesting to see what impact, if any, increased minutes will have on Ridenour’s efficiency. Right now they don’t have anyone else. (They just signed Brunson)

    * Indiana was an artificially low 19th in efficiency. That was clearly the impact of the suspensions and other injuries. The Pacers, like the Spurs, could easily play themselves into the top 5 if not the league lead.

  14. Eric

    Quick note on San Antonio above, from Dave:

    Agree the Spurs could be quite good on offense. So many were surprised how strong they were against Phoenix who shouldn’t have been. Bowen was more aggressive last year on offense, which might decline, but not because of Scola. who is staying in Spain for another year. They did sign fellow Olympics mate Fabricio Oberto, but he’ll likely take very few shots (and be happy for it).

    Glenn Robinson is not a lock to be resigned, though could be a wild card punch if fully integrated into their offense off the bench.

    Barry could be more of a factor now that fitting in and confidence are no longer such problems.

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