Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Melo Out 1-2 Weeks. We Need More Jeremy Lin!

According to ESPN:

New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony is out approximately 1-2 weeks after straining his right groin, the team announced Tuesday.

Coach Mike D’Antoni offered no update on Amare Stoudemire either, which means the Knicks will roll out the same Band-Aid starting line up that handled Utah Monday night.

Anthony scored two points and played just five minutes in Monday’s 99-88 win over the Jazz. He threw an alley-oop to Tyson Chandler midway through the first quarter and started to limp shortly after.

He called timeout on the next play and went to the bench before heading to the locker room. Anthony did not return to the game but did rejoin the bench in street clothes. He was not available to reporters after the game.

Vio-Lin?:

I swear, if everyone shows up at Madison Square Garden with violins, and every time he does something awesome the entire crowd starts aggressively doing bow work, it will be the greatest sports phenomenon of all time. This is the best idea ever, and the only good thing I have ever contributed to the world. You’re welcome, New York. This one’s on the house. With that said, the next citywide rallying cry will come at a steep price, either by way of a lifetime supply of steak from Smith & Wollensky or all-time next at Rucker Park.

Statistical-Lin-ly speaking:

Much of Lin’s production has come from his ability to penetrate and create easy baskets for his teammates. Assist percentage is the percentage of teammates’ field goals a player assisted on while he was on the floor.
Highest Assist Percentage This Season
Steve Nash 53.5
Deron Williams 44.8
Rajon Rondo 44.7
Jose Calderon 43.6
Jeremy Lin 42.1
>> Min. 135 minutes played

Among players with at least 135 minutes played this season, Lin has the fifth-best assist percentage, trailing only some of the league’s marquee point guards.

He’s been especially effective in the pick-and-roll game, something the Knicks have sorely lacked this season — they are 16th in the NBA in points per possession in the pick-and-roll.

More than 61 percent of Lin’s offense has been in the pick-and-roll, the sixth-highest rate in the NBA. Only five players with at least 80 pick-and-roll plays have more points per possession and Lin is one spot ahead of LeBron James.

58 comments on “Melo Out 1-2 Weeks. We Need More Jeremy Lin!

  1. nicos

    It’ll be interesting to see how Lin does the next couple of games- both Washington and the Lakers can really defend the rim so expect him to have a more difficult time finishing in the paint.

  2. ROUGH

    Among other weaknesses, the Wizzards have a mediocre front court, bad defense, and also commit a lot of TOs. So the Knicks should be ok if they a) play with the same defensive energy as on Monday against the Jazz, and b) stay out of foul trouble (which they did not do against the Jazz, but were lucky enough to get away with it)

  3. Gideon Zaga

    He still can’t go left, just saying, slow your horses, you jumped on Shump so early and now he’s back to earth.

  4. d-mar

    @1 and 2 – you left the most important thing out – if the Knicks don’t hit their 3′s at a decent clip, they will lose to every team in the NBA without Melo and STAT.

  5. max fisher-cohen

    well, the schedule is pretty easy for the next five games. Only one game vs. a team over .500 (LAL) and 3 games vs. bottom 5 teams in Sacramento, Washington and New Orleans. If we can go 3-2, get Melo, Amaré and possibly Baron Davis should be back by then.

  6. BigBlueAL

    Nice question and answer in Hollinger’s chat today:

    Do you buy into this idea that Melo’s injury could be a “blessing in disguise”?

    John Hollinger
    (2:13 PM):

    Only if you’re the Rockets and are hoping to get the No. 6 overall pick (its top-5 protected). Carmelo may be a bit overrated, but he’s still massively better than anyone else on the Knicks except Chandler.

  7. Frank

    d-mar:
    @1 and 2 – you left the most important thing out – if the Knicks don’t hit their 3?s at a decent clip, they will lose to every team in the NBA without Melo and STAT.

    Ummmmm… they only shot 32% from 3 last night and won going away… and shot 14% from 3 against NJ with Melo worse than ineffective and STAT out with foul trouble.

    What they need to do is play the same kind of D they played in quarters 1, 2, and 4 last night. We will definitely need STAT back to have any chance against the Lakers friday though. I don’t think Bill Walker is going to cut it at the 4 against Gasol.

  8. cgreene

    BigBlueAL:
    Nice question and answer in Hollinger’s chat today:

    Do you buy into this idea that Melo’s injury could be a “blessing in disguise”?

    John Hollinger
    (2:13 PM):

    Only if you’re the Rockets and are hoping to get the No. 6 overall pick (its top-5 protected). Carmelo may be a bit overrated, but he’s still massively better than anyone else on the Knicks except Chandler.

    Yes. This blessing in disguise thing is a fallacy. We need wins.

  9. d-mar

    Frank: Ummmmm… they only shot 32% from 3 last night and won going away… and shot 14% from 3 against NJ with Melo worse than ineffective and STAT out with foul trouble.

    What they need to do is play the same kind of D they played in quarters 1, 2, and 4 last night.We will definitely need STAT back to have any chance against the Lakers friday though. I don’t think Bill Walker is going to cut it at the 4 against Gasol.

    I guess I should have said they will lose to any team that has a semblance of a shot blocker or inside presence, as Linsanity might not have such an easy path to the basket as he did against NJ and Utah. So then it will come down to hitting 3′s.

  10. Frank O.

    cgreene: Yes.This blessing in disguise thing is a fallacy.We need wins.

    He’s not massively better than Stat. That’s just silly.

  11. cgreene

    Frank O.: He’s not massively better than Stat. That’s just silly.

    Totally agree. Typical national press exaggeration crap. Regardless though we want Carmelo Anthony playing as many games as possible. We continue (pun intended) to have a lack of continuity with players playing together. Lin very well may be the adequate PG we need to fill out the puzzle of the offense but playing with Melo and Stat is important. He actually said he never played on their team in practice. So…

  12. Bruno Almeida

    Frank O.: He’s not massively better than Stat. That’s just silly.

    agree, and the whole thing about the “blessing in disguise” is not to say that this team is better with Bill Walker starting at SF, Carmelo is obviously better.

    the point is that the team played a terrible kind of basketball many times with Melo on the court, and now they will be forced to drop that and try something else, which we have seen in the past two games, has worked pretty well so far.

    Hollinger is terrible, imo.

  13. ess-dog

    If we defend the three the way we did last night, we should beat these bad teams. I think we have to go 4-2 over the next six games. We still need bench scoring though. Novak and Walker are fool’s gold.

  14. hoolahoop

    These past two games, maybe four games, offer very valuable lessons that I hope the knicks can learn from.
    Winning basketball is easiest when the team plays together, as a unit, moving the ball often and quick, till you find a man with a good shot. The scrap heap of the knick roster beat a formidable foe. It’s not that you don’t need talent to be an elite team. You do. But the talent should play just like the knicks B team. Scrappy, unselfish, and defensively intense.
    Imagine if Melo gives up hero ball and continues to develop his role as facilitator, taking pride in dishing out good assists, more so than making field goals. Everyone on the team will follow suit. This team would put several good win streaks together and be a good PG and a rotation player or two from being on the level of Miami and Chicago.
    I keep pointing to Melo because his presence is dominating. He stirs the drink.
    The most important things for the knicks right now is for Lin to develop as a serviceable, S. Nash “style” PG, Melo to be a consummate team player, and continue intensifying the defense.

  15. DRed

    If Balkman was one of the only 5 Knicks available to play, how long do you think it would take D’Antoni to bench him?

  16. Brian Cronin

    While I don’t disagree on the blueprint, hoolahoop, I’d like to again point out that Melo was doing what you said he should do when he got injured. We don’t have to tell him he needs to do it, because he is already doing it. He has bought in to the blueprint.

    And, of course, one of the best things about him buying in is that it benefits him, too! Imagine how many easy buckets he would have gotten last night! This system benefits him a lot as he is able to score in a variety of different ways, and opening up the court allows the team to take advantage of his great scoring skills while still keeping the spacing open for the rest of the team. Also, you sure can’t double him and Lin.

  17. Brian Cronin

    If Balkman was one of the only 5 Knicks available to play, how long do you think it would take D’Antoni to bench him?

    I think even D’Antoni would play Balkman if he was one of only five players available to play. Now if there were six, then yeah, Balkman would get something like 2 minutes.

  18. villainx

    I’m with whoever on here is saying they want to see what the Knicks team can do with Melo, Stat and Lin on the floor. Not sure if Lin can keep this up but if he keeps on dishing and penetrating (and control the turnover) that’s enough to make a big difference.

    I don’t see anyone on the Knicks being stubborn. Maybe Shump a little with his outside shooting. But the main issue was lack of credible PG play. If Lin is in, it’ll be interesting to see what the full Knick squad does.

  19. Z

    Jeremy Lin has now done what Rick Carlisle, Earl Baron, and Timofey Mozgov never achieved in Knick Uniforms: Back-to-Back ridiculous breakout games designed only to tease, and ultimately let down, Knick fans… Just 30 more of these and we may have a keeper!

  20. Z

    Re:Statistic-Lin-Ly Speaking–

    BBR has Lin’s assist% at 47.2%, which actually puts him second only to Steve Nash. But, of course, 135 minutes isn’t worth the cyberspace it’s printed on, so who really cares. (I guess that’s more of a comment for the folks at true hoop and not KB, but since I read it here first…)

  21. hoolahoop

    Brian Cronin:
    While I don’t disagree on the blueprint, hoolahoop, I’d like to again point out that Melo was doing what you said he should do when he got injured. We don’t have to tell him he needs to do it, because he is already doing it. He has bought in to the blueprint.

    And, of course, one of the best things about him buying in is that it benefits him, too! Imagine how many easy buckets he would have gotten last night! This system benefits him a lot as he is able to score in a variety of different ways, and opening up the court allows the team to take advantage of his great scoring skills while still keeping the spacing open for the rest of the team. Also, you sure can’t double him and Lin.

    You’re right, since the Denver debacle Melo has played much less iso ball. That why the knicks have looked so good in the games against Boston and Chicago. I love when he plays team ball. All I’m saying is he has to continue on that trajectory.

  22. danvt

    I love Lin, but we won because of Chandlers defense. Utah scored 35 in the third quarter with him on the bench and 15 in the fourth when he was back in. He’s just a monster defending the basket.

    Really looking forward to Stat and Lin in the P and R. Jeremy would have had MANY more assists if people had finished plays more. Lots of foul shot though so it may not matter that much.

    With Jeffries taking charges and Novak keeping the defense honest we really have good bench play right now.

    It was awesome watching the Garden come alive with the Giants players on the sidelines.

    Starting to see what Iverson was talking about re: practice. K’s and coach D are learning through playing. These games have really been high intensity, very public scrimmages.

  23. Brian Cronin

    I love Lin, but we won because of Chandlers defense. Utah scored 35 in the third quarter with him on the bench and 15 in the fourth when he was back in. He’s just a monster defending the basket.

    Oh yeah, Chandler might very well be the best all-around Knick player, so it was not surprising to see them struggle while playing the equivalent of two quarters without him.

  24. d-mar

    danvt:
    I love Lin, but we won because of Chandlers defense.Utah scored 35 in the third quarter with him on the bench and 15 in the fourth when he was back in.He’s just a monster defending the basket.

    You know, in a lot of ways, he’s the one guy we can’t afford to lose for any extended period. I think it would be eye opening (and a flashback to the recent past) to watch our defense without Chandler in the middle. Plus we know he can defend guys like Bynum one and one, which is a luxury.

  25. Z-man

    One thing I really worry about is Lin getting overused and breaking down. That is D’Antoni’s MO, did it to Duhon (unnecessarily for the purpose of alienating Steph, who was by far the better player) and to Felton, who’s stats also declined in the several weeks before he was traded. Hearing him say “I’m gonna ride him like freakin’ Secretariat” makes me very concerned.

  26. André

    quickest first step in nba:

    1 – Tony Parker

    2 – Leandro Barbosa

    3 – Jeremy Lin ?

    ( excuse my poor english…I am an international fan who got emotional about Lin’s history in the last two games. I’ve watched the two previous games in nba league pass international. I Love Ramones, Spider Man, Knicks and, of course, NY )

  27. daJudge

    Mike, thanks for the extra help on stats. The breakdown assists guys like me who chewed a little Skoal during math class. Thanks for the dime. Anyway, we need to continue to be patient simply because we haven’t watched this squad with a proper point guard. I don’t think anyone on this awesome board would seriously posit that we have played with a complete team. Right? No point guard. Let’s see what happens now. Assuming, as many have argued, that Stat and Melo are overrated. Even if true (red herring to me), you need to reserve your judgment to be intellectually honest. If you’re into purely empirical data and honest, your data is big time impure. You need to wait and see what happens now. If you don’t you are tumbling headlong into the same slippery slope you properly criticize.

  28. Spree8nyk8

    I am just hoping we can tread water until we get back to full strength. I am extremely optimistic about seeing us with a decent pg. And I think Lin is just that. I’m not that worried about what is going to happen when we play teams with shotblockers because if you look at the way he’s played in his brief stint thus far, he makes the right decisions. In the first half against Utah he was doing much more setting up, using his drive to create for his teammates, and when Utah moved more into the passing lanes then he became the primary scorer. I can’t really see this kid being fluky. He just plays fundamentally sound ball. Nothing real flashy about it. And I do agree with one of the previous posters that said he would have had a lot more assists with Melo/Amare available and chandler not stuck in foul trouble. He had so many great setups cancelled out last night. When those passes are going to finishers his numbers are gonna really look amazing. If they can find a way to win until Stat/Melo return I think they have a reasonable chance of getting this thing turned around pretty quickly. Of course his points are going to go way down I would think when those guys come back, it’s nice to know he can fill it up if he had to.

  29. Bruno Almeida

    the problem I see is that Melo played with decent / good Point Guards his whole career and has been an inefficient scorer even on those situations.

    forgetting the Iverson years, he played quite some time with Andre Miller and Chauncey Billups and was what he was.

    I do hope he changes his mindset, because he has a lot of talent, and there were some indications to that on the last couple of games… let’s hope it’s permanent and he has truly realized that he needs to cut down on the inefficient plays and play together with the team.

  30. Spree8nyk8

    And honestly of all the plays this kid has made in 2 games the most telling play to me was actually a very simple one. In last nights game after he forced a steal he made a pass to Novak for a 3. But lost in that play was the fact that initially Shumpert was wide open on the elbow and instead of doing the easy pass to Shumpert he made a simple hand gesture to get Shumpert out of the way so that he could pass the ball to the better shooter, which to me showed me that he not only spots his open players but he also has the presence of mind to pick out the best option. To this point I think every player we have had would have made the easier quick pass to Shumpert there instead of adjusting to make the correct decision.

    He also had a pass to Chandler that wasn’t placed to Chandlers hands but slightly behind him where Chandler had to adjust and gather himself, but looking at the play again there was a defender that was poised to make a play on that pass and putting the ball where he put it meant that the defender could not make a play on the ball and forced him to deal with Chandler instead at a point where he had little hope of stopping him.

    The second half turnovers were not good but fatigue might have been a factor, but for now I’m not worried about his minutes. Those should straighten out once we get players back. And for now until we have straightened the team out I’d rather see MDA ride Lin than lose winnable games.

  31. Spree8nyk8

    @37 I think Melo has bought in, he’s definitely looking to find teammates more and I think having a pg that controls the offense will bolster this. Not saying there won’t be points where he reverts but overall I think that a teamball thought process will become the predominant one.

  32. Bruno Almeida

    Spree8nyk8:
    @37I think Melo has bought in, he’s definitely looking to find teammates more and I think having a pg that controls the offense will bolster this.Not saying there won’t be points where he reverts but overall I think that a teamball thought process will become the predominant one.

    that’s what I’m hoping for, I think he’s a smart guy, and I still trust D’Antoni to motivate him.

  33. Spree8nyk8

    idk, everyone I know seems to think that he can’t continue to play this well. But hey, it’s only been 2 games…….he could get better :)

  34. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Like I said, he had the 12th highest PAWS40 in the 2010 draft.

    He projected as a solid NBA player, so even if he comes down, he maybe won’t come down to the level of a Mike Bibby.

    Do I think he’ll end the season with a +.200 WS48? No. But for what they’re paying him, if they get .100, it’s a steal.

  35. Brian Cronin

    Brian will be happy with the Cavs and Bucks both losing today :-)

    1 game out of the #8 spot (1/2 game out of the #9 spot)!

    Of course, they are also facing multiple games without either STAT or Melo, so they might be kind of screwed. But if they can keep within 2 or 3 games of the #8 spot by the time that Melo and STAT come back, they should be in good shape as far as making the playoffs goes.

  36. Spree8nyk8

    Is there any reason to think we wouldn’t be able to re-sign him? He won’t have bird rights. And I know this is WAYYY ahead of time, but what if he keeps this up? Would we be able to afford him?

  37. BigBlueAL

    Brian Cronin: 1 game out of the #8 spot (1/2 game out of the #9 spot)!

    Of course, they are also facing multiple games without either STAT or Melo, so they might be kind of screwed. But if they can keep within 2 or 3 games of the #8 spot by the time that Melo and STAT come back, they should be in good shape as far as making the playoffs goes.

    Just win tomorrow. Knicks had a chance to lose both games this weekend even at full strength anyway so I wont get upset if that happens especially w/o Melo and possibly w/o Stat too. But from now on the Knicks HAVE to win all their remaining games vs the crappy teams like the Wizards. Plus its a game vs an Eastern conference opponent which are games Knicks have to win to help their conference record.

  38. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    Like I said, he had the 12th highest PAWS40 in the 2010 draft.

    even a stopped clock is right twice a day. the 2010 draft looks pretty lousy by any measure right now, but I can’t help but note that your beloved PAWS40 whiffed badly on Greg Monroe.

  39. jon abbey

    this next six game stretch is huge for NY, as the rest of the schedule after that is way tougher than it’s been so far. they really need to get close to .500 by the end of that, hopefully tomorrow is the last game Amare misses.

  40. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    jon abbey: even a stopped clock is right twice a day. the 2010 draft looks pretty lousy by any measure right now, but I can’t help but note that your beloved PAWS40 whiffed badly on Greg Monroe.

    What do you mean? It had him as an “above average” prospect and he’s been good so far in his young career. How did it “whiff?”

    Berri doesn’t claim that PAWS is exact. I can tell you that if there’s an undrafted rookie who is in the top 12, I’d want him on my team for the rookie minimum. You wouldn’t?

    Don’t forget that PAWS40 is not voodoo magic. It’s just an aggregate of a player’s impact as measured by the box score, with emphasis on the stats (like rebounding) that “translate” well from college to the pros. (Scoring does not.)

  41. Bruno Almeida

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: What do you mean? It had him as an “above average” prospect and he’s been good so far in his young career. How did it “whiff?”

    Berri doesn’t claim that PAWS is exact. I can tell you that if there’s an undrafted rookie who is in the top 12, I’d want him on my team for the rookie minimum. You wouldn’t?

    Don’t forget that PAWS40 is not voodoo magic. It’s just an aggregate of a player’s impact as measured by the box score, with emphasis on the stats (like rebounding) that “translate” well from college to the pros. (Scoring does not.)

    my guess is that’s why the Rockets got him even though they already had 3 PGs… however, Lowry and Dragic are playing too well and they still have Flynn, they just couldn’t find minutes for him.

  42. hoolahoop

    The best part about Lin is his PG mentality. He’s not Steve Nash, but he plays in the mold of Steve Nash. For a reason I am at a loss for, there are so few true PG’s. Lin seems like he may be one. As he gets more comfortable out there he may deliver consistent penetration and ball distribution, breaking down defenses and getting the ball to teammates in easy scoring position.
    If he gets too cocky and starts upping his shots his efficiency will decline and he’ll be useless. But, he’s a smart kid. If he approaches his position as a student of the game understanding the true role of a PG , we got ourselves a good asset, cheap.

  43. Ben R

    For what it’s worth Ed Weiland at HoopsAnalyst, my favorite draft preview guy, had Jeremy Lin as the 2nd best PG in his draft class and a top 30 player overall. He also had Landry Fields as a top 30 guy as well.

    Here is a link to his draft preview of Lin:
    http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487

    Combine that with his good play in d-league last year and his numbers this year are not completely out of nowhere.

  44. TheRant

    Ben R: Combine that with his good play in d-league last year and his numbers this year are not completely out of nowhere.

    I agree. I’m interested in his D-league play.

    Everyone is talking about Lin as if he came out of nowhere, which I guess he did. But there was also the report that after being sent to the D-league, on January 20 (just a few weeks ago), Lin had a triple-double with 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 12 assists.

    I don’t know enough about D-league play. If someone can be a standout player there, doesn’t that mean they merit a look for the main Knicks roster? Or are there people who play standout ball at the D-league level who are still a surprise when they can do it on the big stage?

  45. Brian Cronin

    I don’t know enough about D-league play. If someone can be a standout player there, doesn’t that mean they merit a look for the main Knicks roster? Or are there people who play standout ball at the D-league level who are still a surprise when they can do it on the big stage?

    It is hard to tell, since so few D-Leaguers ever even get a chance in the NBA. Lin was one of the best players in the D-League last year. Possibly the best was Ivan Johnson, who is playing solidly in limited minutes for the Hawks this year. Latavious Williams was another standout who likely would be in the NBA now if not for the lockout (he went to go play in Europe because of the lockout). I guess Marqus Blakely would be the next test. He was signed by the Rockets but cut before the season began. Reggie Williams played in the D-League for nearly a full season in 2009-10.

  46. TheRant

    Thanks. It sounds a little like D-League play is invisible, the way that other teams feel they are watching the Knicks and the Lakers in the media spotlight. Half the country’s supposed basketball fans don’t know the play of Kevin Durant, because he plays for OKC. And half again didn’t know who Pau Gasol was until he joined the Lakers.

    Perhaps one of the greatest stories of Jeremy Lin is his ability to handle being on this stage and playing this ball, while still (at least outwardly) talking about team and not about himself. Let’s hope it lasts.

  47. Z

    Brian Cronin: It is hard to tell, since so few D-Leaguers ever even get a chance in the NBA. Lin was one of the best players in the D-League last year. Possibly the best was Ivan Johnson, who is playing solidly in limited minutes for the Hawks this year. Latavious Williams was another standout who likely would be in the NBA now if not for the lockout (he went to go play in Europe because of the lockout). I guess Marqus Blakely would be the next test. He was signed by the Rockets but cut before the season began. Reggie Williams played in the D-League for nearly a full season in 2009-10.

    Jamarion Moon started in Albany before taking hold in the NBA.

    Speaking of Albany, back when there was a CBA quite a few NBA players got noticed there. Seemingly more than once it became a designated “minor league” for the the NBA. On the patroons alone such players as Scott Brooks, Tony Campbell, Sidney Lowe, Mario Elie, and Vincent Askew went on to be contributors at the NBA level. (and of course the Patroon coaches went on to contribute even more: Bill Musselman, George Karl, and Phil Jackson all started there).

  48. Brian Cronin

    Yeah, it definitely seems like more players came from the CBA than the D-League. What is up with that? I suppose the answer is that with the influx of foreign players, it is harder for the Starks and Masons of the world to get a job in the modern NBA.

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