Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Last Year’s 2010 Over/Under

A quick look back at last year’s over/under.

The Youngsters

Gallo 3 point shooting percentage: 40%
My Pick: Under
Actual: 38.1% – Under

Gallo shot a sizzling 44.4% in 2009, and appeared near automatic that year from downtown. My reasoning was that 412 wasn’t enough minutes to warrant a true measure of his skill. Interestingly enough he shot greater than 40% in only one month (I’m not counting the 3 games in October) and really dogged it in February.

Month Games 3P%
October 3 50.0%
November 14 40.5%
December 14 36.2%
January 15 38.7%
February 11 31.1%
March 16 35.9%
April 8 38.6%

Jordan Hill minutes played: 1100.5
My Pick: Under
Actual: 624 – Under
Hill only played 252 minutes for the Knicks and 372 for the Rockets.

Toney Douglas True Shooting Percentage: 50%
My Pick: Under
Actual: 57.1% – Over

Yeah I was way wrong on this one. Douglas had an awful summer league in terms of shooting, and ironically he had another bad summer shooting (49.7% TS%) this year too. But during the season he was incredibly efficient.

Lottery Pick Centers

Darko Milicic total points on the season: Eddy Curry total points on the season
My Pick: Over
Actual: 215 to 26 – Over

This looked good for Curry, especially when Milicic was essentially sent home from the team. Eddy outscored Darko as a Knick (26 to 16), but Milicic racked up another 199 points in Minnesota to win this cripple fight.

UFOs (or I’ll Believe It When I See it)

Jared Jeffries 3 pointers attempted per 36 minutes: 1.5
My Pick: Over
Actual: 1.4 – Under

Jeffries was averaging 1.53 3pa/36 before he was traded to Houston. The Rockets put a crimp on his Sam Perkins imitation and Jeffries’ rate went under. This was actually much closer than I expected.

(Smells Like) Team Spirit

Number of Knicks traded during the 2010 season: 0.5
My Pick: Under
Actual: 6 – Over

New York made 3 deals, and sent Nate Robinson, Marcus Landry, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Larry Hughes, and Darko Milicic packing.

Number of Wins From March 1 – April 14th: 9.5
My Pick: Under
Actual: 9 – Under

New York underachieved, although who would have guessed that winning 9 games from March 1st onward would actually be an improvement on the season? The Knicks were 20-38 at the end of February (.344) and 9-15 down the stretch (.375).

Defensive efficiency: 110.8
My Pick: Under
Actual: 111.6 – Over

The Knicks were just awful on defense, much worse than they were the year before. D’Antoni refused to play any of the defensive minded centers given to him (Darko, Hill), conceding the paint to the opposition.

Playoff Spots Earned: 0.5
My Pick: Under
Actual: 0 – Under

I tend to eat healthier than the average person, so drinking Kool-Aid isn’t in my diet.

The Free Agents

Number of additional games Nate Robinson plays as a Knick in his career: 82.5
My Pick: Over
Actual: 30 – Under

Um, no comment.

David Lee’s Annual Salary in 2011: $7.5M
My Pick: Under
Actual: $10.8M – Over

A few years ago if you told me that someone would sign David Lee to a contract where the first year salary was $10.8, I would wonder how Dave Berri got a job as an NBA GM.

72 comments on “Last Year’s 2010 Over/Under

  1. Garson

    I am hearing some rumors that the Nuggets want to trade Melo mid-season.

    When the Nuggets are contending at that point, and are in the 2-5 seeding zone, how can they trade him? Wouldn’t the fans go crazy? And if so, they are looking for cap relief and draft picks. As good as the offers are, nothing will compensate for the immediate loss they would take in Melos absence.

    This might not go down as smoothly as they want it to.

    Either way, i think the best possible situation is Melo either staying the entire season and us getting him in the off-season OR the nuggets trading him as a “rental” to a team he does not want to extend with. of course the latter would not happen being that no team would trade for him without the extension guarantee.

  2. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Garson,

    The fans would go crazy until they ripped 10 in a row with Deng and Noah, who would potentially make the Nuggets a 60-win team. Nuggets fans perhaps are not so thrilled about this possibility, but they absolutely should be. Carmelo is going to make one unlucky fan base quite unhappy.

    A certain economist has posited that wins, not “star power,” matter when it comes to selling tickets. With Deng and Noah, I wouldn’t worry much.

  3. ess-dog

    I don’t think a Harris/Lopez/Melo team would be much better than a Stoudemire/Gallo/Randolph team. In other words, a 13 – 18 first rounder.

    Fernandez apparently turned down a trade to N.O. Looks like he’s very willing to sit out the year if he can’t go to a preferred team i.e. the Knicks. I can only imagine that the Blazers will not deal him to us out of spite at this point. But he really would fit well in our lineup.

  4. DS

    @6 Yeah, that’s BS. If the Nuggets were intrigued, it would be a done deal. I think the Nets would have to think about taking back Denver’s worst contract.

    I like how Gallo and Randolph are such question marks, according to ESPN, but somehow Favors isn’t.

  5. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    If a player is a hyped, high draft pick, he’s obviously going to be first-team All-NBA. John Wall will be an all-star between 2012 and 2020 simply because ESPN made him a household name before he turned 18. Oh, he’ll lead the league in FGA and TO, and perhaps post a .500 TS% with 2.5 REB/36, but he’ll be an all-star, all right.

  6. Ted Nelson

    BigBlueAL: Seriously?? Favors, Murphy, Humphries and a future 1st round pick is apparently an intriguing offer for Melo??  

    I think that’s a pretty good offer for the Nuggets, yeah. They’re not going to get a young player with more potential than Favors, Murphy is a good player with an expiring contract, and then a pick… I don’t know what more they can get for a top 20 player who might be making over $20 mill per year.

    Garson: Do they understand that a Harris Melo Lopez Nets teams pick is not so good?  

    Favors is a top 3 pick, so they know for a fact they get a #3 pick. Not even sure he can be traded yet, though, assuming he’s signed a contract.

    DS: I think the Nets would have to think about taking back Denver’s worst contract.

    Al Harrington is Denver’s worst long-term contract and they can’t trade him yet because they just signed him to that bad deal a couple months ago… Also, probably don’t want to trade him if they just signed him.
    http://hoopshype.com/salaries/denver.htm
    Denver has a tremendous amount of cap flexibility going forward.

    ess-dog: Fernandez apparently turned down a trade to N.O.

    I haven’t followed the situation particularly closely, but what authority does Rudy Fernandez have to turn down a trade?

    DS: I like how Gallo and Randolph are such question marks, according to ESPN, but somehow Favors isn’t.  

    Favors is absolutely a question mark, but his upside is huge. There’s a reason he was a consensus top 4 pick. Gallo and Randolph have both been in the NBA two seasons and created as many question marks as they’ve answered. Favors is a blank slate and Denver may or may not have been very high on him entering the draft.

    If nothing else Denver can use this offer as a benchmark for other teams. Say Favors and AR/Gallo are equal. Murphy is obviously more valuable than Curry and when is the next time the Knicks can offer a pick? So, either a. the Knicks can’t meet Denver’s demands or b. Denver has leverage on the Knicks.

    I don’t really want the Knicks to get into a bidding war for Melo.

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: If a player is a hyped, high draft pick, he’s obviously going to be first-team All-NBA. John Wall will be an all-star between 2012 and 2020 simply because ESPN made him a household name before he turned 18.

    I don’t think it was ESPN that hyped John Wall… His talent is pretty ridiculously obvious. No one can say for sure how his career will turn out, but his chances of being a great NBA player are very high relative to other NBA prospects. He wasn’t the consensus #1 recruit and #1 pick just because of ESPN…

  7. cgreene

    Ted, Let’s say you are correct and that Favors is the equivalent of AR or Gallo (which I don’t think is true if one uses advanced stats. Both AR and Gallo project to be very good NBA players who have shown they can play in the NBA. Cousins is a #3 pick with no track record. That’s it.) But even if you are right the Knicks can add any of Chandler, Fields, Moz, Tony Douglas or even 2 of those 4 to the deal plus Curry and the 2014 pick and that offer is simply better than the Nets (plus the small aside that I do not believe that Melo will sign the Nets extension so it’s moot)

    But what really annoys me is the phrase “don’t have the assets”. I asked Hahn (who repeatedly says that phrase) on Twitter if he would trade BOTH AR and Gallo in a deal for Melo and he said he would not. So how can people say, on the one hand, the Knicks don’t have the assets and, on the other, that a given scenario is too much to give up. Doesn’t that defy logic???

  8. ess-dog

    I really hope that Favors doesn’t equal Gallo AND AR.
    Re: Fernandez, he can just continue to threaten not to report I guess.
    As much as I want the Knicks to assemble a perfect team as soon as possible, I don’t know if forced trades are good for the league.
    I believe in the potential of Randolph and Gallo, but there trade value is just not there right now, especially with Randolph coming back from injury. I think we’ll have to play with what we have for now (which I’m fine with since I think Gallo/AR at a low price is > Melo at a high price.)
    I’m also really excited that Curry just isn’t showing up to camp. All he would provide is a distraction to this team so according to my math no Curry > Curry.
    I wish we had a bona fide solution at the sg spot but hopefully somebody will step up.

  9. Jafa

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the Nets have a 5 year plan to win a championship? Don’t these type of plans normally involve drafting and developing talent in the first years, and then making a big splashy trade/FA signing when you believe you are on the cusp and just one impact player away? Why are they acting like my Knicks of old, giving away draft picks and talent for what they consider a sure thing when all it will get you is a 1st round playoff appearance.

    You won’t even be able to build off that success because you lost young talent plus draft picks just getting there, and you’ll be searching for FAs to complete you roster, like my Knicks of today.

    Think about it: In 2 years time (when they move to Brooklyn), the Nets could be a very attractive up and coming team, with an all-star center in Lopez and a budding PF in Favors. Hence, your front-court would be almost complete (and if Terrence Williams is any good, complete). And maybe they have a good PG/SG with one year of experience (lottery pick in 2011) and the ability to draft another good PG/SG in 2012. Then you may be ready to trade some young players for solid in-their-prime players to complete the roster and make a push for a deep playoff run in the debut year in Brooklyn.

    I am completely off base with this plan or is there a reason I don’t work in the NBA?

  10. Ted Nelson

    cgreene: (which I don’t think is true if one uses advanced stats. Both AR and Gallo project to be very good NBA players who have shown they can play in the NBA. Cousins is a #3 pick with no track record. That’s it.)

    No track record is not always a bad thing.. Everyone has no track record when they come into the league, regardless of whether they go on to be great or terrible.

    Both Gallo and AR have raised as many questions since entering the league as they’ve answered.
    -Gallo missed most of his rookie year with a back injury, and–though I have zero medical expertise and have clearly not examined Gallo’s back personally–backs are a pretty complicated thing. He’s been limited to being a spot-up shooter since he’s been in the league. I see the Peja/Reggie-type potential to be a tremendous shooter or even the potential to develop more of a post game and/or playmaking skill, but I also see the Kyle Korver potential and back-injury potential. He’s been a pretty league average player for two seasons, so even though as a young guy he has the potential to be much more it’s by no means assured.
    -AR has struggled to get minutes, due to both fragility and not getting along with/impressing a very successful NBA coach. Maybe it proves to be nothing, but we can’t just ignore that risk and pretend it doesn’t exist. His offensive skills are also very underdeveloped. Even I–an optimist on AR–don’t know how much they will develop, and there is a risk a pessimist might point out that they hardly develop at all. For all his defensive potential, he hasn’t actually been a good defender in NBA games (there’s more to defense than blocking a shot occasionally and pulling down boards). I don’t think GS was wrong to trade him for David Lee; although, I also like the deal for the Knicks.

    The advanced stats on DeMarcus Cousins would suggest he’s going to be a beast, but I don’t know where he comes into the conversation. Favors came in 5th on Hollinger’s 2010 Draft Rater, which is more encouraging when you consider most thought he underperformed at GTech. If nothing else he’s not likely to shrink or become unathletic, and his defensive potential is very good. Offensively… I’m not that impressed but he has potential. Considering that Denver’s GM just came from Toronto, maybe he sees Chris Bosh in Favors. I would say Joe Smith at worst. When you actually meet these guys, see them work out, at least talk to people who have… you probably also get a feel for their work ethic and such… it’s subjective, a small sample, and not always reliable, but pretty hard to ignore if one guy busts his ass and one guy is a total ass.

    cgreene: But even if you are right the Knicks can add any of Chandler, Fields, Moz, Tony Douglas or even 2 of those 4 to the deal plus Curry and the 2014 pick and that offer is simply better than the Nets (plus the small aside that I do not believe that Melo will sign the Nets extension so it’s moot)

    1. That would require the Knicks to give up even more assets for Melo. I don’t really want them to trade AR/Gallo AND Toney Douglas AND a future pick to get him. Just because you can make a trade doesn’t mean you should. Nets also have other reserves to bid such as Terrence Williams and further future picks. If their owner REALLY wants Melo, I’d say let him have the guy.
    2. Troy Murphy is way more valuable than Eddy Curry. He’s a very productive NBA bigman. Denver would have 3 big expiring bigman contracts (K-Mart, Nene, and Murphy) and would probably look to deal one to fill the hole on the wing trading Melo would create.

    cgreene: So how can people say, on the one hand, the Knicks don’t have the assets and, on the other, that a given scenario is too much to give up. Doesn’t that defy logic???  

    They don’t have the assets that fit with a market value deal for Melo, I suppose, is what people are saying… They could overpay by blowing every other offer out of the water, but that’s probably not a good idea. Even then Murphy is so much better than Curry and a 2012 1st is way better for a GM with a couple years to prove himself that the Knicks offer of their two young studs might not be that overwhelming.

    ess-dog: I really hope that Favors doesn’t equal Gallo AND AR.

    Gallo or AR… I really hope the Knicks don’t intend to trade both AR AND Gallo for Anthony.

    ess-dog: As much as I want the Knicks to assemble a perfect team as soon as possible

    If you want to assemble the perfect team you probably don’t want Carmelo Anthony, especially at $20 mill per.

    ess-dog: I wish we had a bona fide solution at the sg spot but hopefully somebody will step up.

    Short of a bonafide solution, getting a bunch of cheap guys with a reasonable chance of making the rotation seems like the best solution… Better than overpaying someone who is half-way bonafide.

  11. Ted Nelson

    Jafa,

    You may very well be right.

    There are some “illegitimate” reasons they might want him:
    A. Some teams are just incompetent. Billy King never struck me as a good decision maker in Philly, and given that those teams were built around AI… building around a high volume scorer may just be his M.O.
    B. Their owner strikes me as impulsive… impatient… flashy… looking for a big splash… gets what he wants… driven to be the best… Carmelo is a big name and some people consider him to be a top 3-5 player in the NBA (though I don’t know why).

    And also some legitimate or semi-legitimate reasons:
    A. Slow, youth driven rebuilding plans don’t always work. Favors is a good prospect and may be Chris Bosh 2.0 or whatever, but he may also be Joe Smith. A future draft pick? Who knows what pick it will be let alone who it will be and how they’ll do… Melo, on the other hand, is a proven commodity. Even if you are a realist on his skill/productivity, he’s an All-Star player. Throw in that Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are already good players. Nets might not have to wait 3-5 years to be decent.
    B. As you say, Nets have a potential All-Star C. All-Star offensive C, All-Star wing scorer, borderline All-Star PG… Throw in some “role players” (Damion James, Morrow, Farmar, Outlaw, T-Will…)… On paper that looks a lot better than any Layden or Isiah team to me… a pretty well constructed roster with playoff talent (Layden’s problem) and not too many obvious nut-jobs (Isiah’s problem). Every team has a plan to win a title in the next 5 years, but a maximum of 5 can… and more likely it’s only going to be 2 or 3 who do.

  12. Donnie Walsh

    Ted Nelson:
    -AR has struggled to get minutes, due to both fragility and not getting along with/impressing a very successful NBA coach.

    That “very successful NBA coach” has feuded with everyone. His bosses (Cuban, Mullin), the media (NY), and Seemingly all of his best players during his tenures at GS (webber, Ellis, Murphy, biedrins, dunleavy, Harrington. Plus starks and ewing in NY. And that’s just off the top of my head).

    I wouldn’t say that “not getting along with Don Nelson” is an indictment against one’s basketball ability.

  13. ess-dog

    Broussard is saying Melo won’t re-sign with New Jersey. And I highly doubt he would re-sign with Houston or Sacramento. What does that leave? Maybe the Clippers? What would their offer be again? Gordon, Kaman and a draft pick? That’s a pretty good deal for Denver. Maybe Dallas or Orlando could offer something that isn’t draft picks that would be better than our offer. Melo could make it rough on Denver, but he clearly wants to go to a big market/good team if not the Knicks.

  14. DS

    @18 – Agreed. Not to mention he prob. had his hand in the Billy Owens for Mitch Richmond and Chris Webber for Tom Gugliota swaps.

    Ted, I think you make some good points but I think Randolph’s career thus far suggests he WILL produce if he’s given minutes.
    When AR played over 25 mins. per game this past season he averaged 16 ppg, 9 rpg, and 2.3 bpg in 30 mpg (all better than Josh Smith in 35 mpg).
    His rookie year at age 19: 13.2 ppg, 9.6 rpg, and 1.75 bpg in 32 mpg.

    And you already know his advanced stats and per 36 numbers:
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randoan01.html

  15. Ted Nelson

    Donnie Walsh: I wouldn’t say that “not getting along with Don Nelson” is an indictment against one’s basketball ability.  

    No, but him not playing you and not getting along with him are two different things. I shouldn’t have even mentioned that they didn’t get along, just that he didn’t play him. Personality issues aside Don Nelson has won a lot of games and played good players a lot of minutes. AR has plenty of non-Don Nelson related question marks that I identified in that post:
    -not impressing a HOF coach enough to get minutes on a bad team
    -offensive game extremely raw
    -lack of defensive intensity/defensive rawness
    -fragility

    Another is lack of position. Maybe he’ll transcend position with his strengths, but no outside shot, an unwillingness to play inside, and a questionable attitude/work ethic might be a bad combo for him.

    I’m high on Anthony Randolph, all I’m saying is that just because he has a couple of NBA seasons under his belt does not make him automatically a better prospect than Favors. He has a downside as well as an upside. Not getting burn and getting on your coach’s shit-list generally increase the probability of ending up closer to the downside than upside. It’s not always the case, but something teams have to consider.

    “Seemingly all of his best players during his tenures at GS (webber, Ellis, Murphy, biedrins, dunleavy, Harrington.”

    I don’t care to defend the guy, but he didn’t seem to have a problem with Dirk and Nash in Dallas. Ewing and Starks were a terrible stylistic fit with Nelson. I don’t know about any problems with Dunleavy/Murphy, but… Dunleavy has been maddeningly inconsistent and underachieving on his career. Ellis is a jerk-off who would not pass the ball to his starting PG because he was having a hissy-fit the team drafted the kid instead of letting Monta shoot whenever he pleased the season after jeopardizing his career in a recreational accident. He’s virtually untradable or else just about any team would have dumped him. Webber underachieved his whole career (yes, even in Sacramento… never reached his potential, though he was still an All-Star) and was also let go by the next team after GS because they didn’t like his attitude. Harrington also has had ego issues in Indiana as well as GS: forced his way off a 50-60 win Indy team to be “the man” on a 20 win Atlanta team. I don’t know if his problems with Biedrins go beyond him just not wanting to play Biedrins much (which I think is generally a mistake, though for whatever reason Biedrins was terrible last season). Nelson’s been right to some degree on pretty much all accounts… I hope it’s more of a Chris Webber degree with AR. Nelson doesn’t seem to have much of a problem with hard workers… Even S-Jax was one of his favorites despite having problems at other stops. S-Jax also managed to earn the respect of the other great coaches he’s played for in Pops and LB.

  16. Ted Nelson

    ess-dog: Broussard is saying Melo won’t re-sign with New Jersey. And I highly doubt he would re-sign with Houston or Sacramento. What does that leave? Maybe the Clippers?

    He’s got to sign somewhere… He’s probably going to have to make compromises in terms of location/wins/money because I don’t know that he can maximize all 3 (even the Big 3 compromised $, and I would argue location)… Hopefully if he chooses to maximize location in NYC Walsh gets him to compromise money rather than wins…

    DS: Ted, I think you make some good points but I think Randolph’s career thus far suggests he WILL produce if he’s given minutes.

    I agree. The question isn’t whether he’ll produce, though. It’s whether he’s a better prospect than Derrick Favors.
    If AR couldn’t win over Don Nelson, there is no guarantee he’ll win over D’Antoni either. Chris Webber didn’t win over Nelson, but he did get 32 mpg from his as a 20 year old rookie and then when he left he also failed to win over the Bullets. There are other questions about AR besides attitude AR has to answer, but I agree it should be more a question of whether he’s good or great… not whether he’s even any good.

    DS: Not to mention he prob. had his hand in the Billy Owens for Mitch Richmond and Chris Webber for Tom Gugliota swaps.

    C-Webb wasn’t traded for Gugs straight up, GS also got 3 eventual lottery picks in that deal. If they had used those picks wisely it would have been an amazing deal for them: Kobe, Peja, Nash, and JO all came in the 6 picks after they took Fuller, they drafted Vince Carter…to swap for Jamison… and could have taken Dirk or Pierce instead, and then they could have had Crawford or Przybilla with the Mihm pick they dealt in the Larry Hughes deal. Even one correct call–Kobe, Dirk…–would have made that deal a winner for the Warriors.

    Billy Owens was the 3rd pick in the draft when they traded Richmond for him, so it wasn’t totally crazy… clearly a bad move though.

  17. Donnie Walsh

    Sure, Nellie’s problems have come primarily with jerks and under-achievers. But last I checked, that’s about 95% of NBA players. At some point you have to coach the players you have instead of alienating them so they either run away or get traded by increasingly frustrated GMs/Owners.

    Nelson’s handling on Webber was the entire reason Webber left GS after winning ROY. And that was such a debacle that I am shocked Nelson was ever able to return to GS. To acquire Webber it cost the Warriors Penny Hardaway plus 3 future 1st rounders (one that became Mike Miller, one that became Vince Carter). Only to lose Webber after one year because of “irreconcilable differences” with the coach.

    I’m sure Nellie got along great with Tom Gugliotta. I’m sure that made GS fans very happy, seeing the two of them canoodling at swank SF resaurants while Webber was making 1st team all-NBA just an hour east of Oakland.

  18. DS

    @22 ” It’s whether he’s a better prospect than Derrick Favors.”
    I think young, tall, prospects w/ massive potential who (and this is most important) have appeared to be on the right track after two or three years in the league — as much as Randolph appears to be — are better bets than almost any draft pick. Besides your Tim Duncans and LeBrons.

    “Billy Owens was the 3rd pick in the draft when they traded Richmond for him, so it wasn’t totally crazy… clearly a bad move though. ”

    Well that’s at least one example of a #3 pick swap that didn’t pan out well. Interesting anecdotes about the Webber deal though.

    I know what you’re saying about the difference between feuding with Nelson and not earning minutes but in any event I find it highly plausible that Nelson could decide to not use a player for whatever reason and that that player can thrive under D’Antoni

  19. Ted Nelson

    Donnie Walsh,

    Don Nelson’s not really the one on trial here so much as Anthony Randolph. I agree with you that I didn’t *really* need to mention Don Nelson’s doghouse as a big negative, but it’s also not a positive.

    “To acquire Webber it cost the Warriors Penny Hardaway plus 3 future 1st rounders”

    And they turned around and got 3 lottery picks plus Gugs (who they immediately moved for an underachieving rookie top 5 pick in Donyell Marshall. They didn’t do all that terribly in the end.

    DS: I think young, tall, prospects w/ massive potential

    Also describes Favors to a T…
    I also prefer AR, but if I were a Nets fan I’d probably view Favors more optimistically and AR less so.

    DS: have appeared to be on the right track after two or three years in the league — as much as Randolph appears to be

    The consensus around the NBA seems to be that Randolph has not been on the right track… If he were a sure thing KG/T-Mac hybrid GS would probably have gotten more for him than Lee when also including 2 borderline rotation guys in the deal.

    DS: are better bets than almost any draft pick

    It’s a pretty theoretical question because every single case is different. I can respect saying I’m only going with track record guys, but that leaves you open to only taking other team’s retreats while passing on the chance to get fresh talent in the draft. I just would not make that a general rule. You can argue that AR is a better prospect than DF, but how much? Certainly they’re close as of today. Intelligent people would argue on both sides of the discussion.

    Billy Owens was one #3 pick, but Michael Jordan was another… One example doesn’t make a rule. Generally speaking, on average, #3 you’re getting an NBA rotation player.

  20. ess-dog

    I would love Kahn to swoop in and get a deal done without an extension. Partly I would find it amusing, but partly it might not be such a bad move. You have to figure as the only suitor willing to go without the extension, Minny could at least get 90 cents on the dollar for Melo. They could probably swing a Love and first rounder plus filler.
    Love hates it there and would love out and they have Pekovic who is a natural 4 and should be pretty good. Darko and Koufos can man the middle. If they want to go small, they could put Beasley at the 4.
    Then they spend the year convincing Melo to stay there. What better way to seduce Rubio to come over the following year? Wes Johnson can play the 2. I mean, that franchise has to do something. And if Melo leaves after the year, you could work with him to do a sign and trade. At least get A. Randolph or Danilo back from the Knicks and change.
    Love meanwhile would be a perfect fit on Denver where he can focus on scoring and boarding. And they would get at least a late lottery or mid-round pick. Minny doesn’t really have any big expirings, but they have some filler and maybe a trade exemption no?

  21. AY

    If New Jersey gets Melo, they make the playoffs. He’s good enough to lead your team into the 2nd round. Right now, virtually no one has them even making the playoffs, so it’s a big upgrade.

    As a team, your best case is you get someone good to take your money. Melo is really good.

    I’m a big Knicks fan, but I think people are going a little bananas overvaluing Gallinari and AR. Before the draft, would the Nets have traded the #3 pick for either of those guys? No.

    Favors > Gallinari or AR
    Murphy > Curry
    #1 Pick > Douglas, Fields, etc.

    I’d give the Nuggets anything they want for Melo. Gallinari, AR, Douglas, Chandler, Fields, Mozgov all balled together. If you have Melo, Amare, and Felton, that’s a strong playoff team you can then build around.

    Even if we said that to the Nuggets, they’d probably say “Meh. I’d rather take just about any other team’s offer than all of your question marks and baggage.”

    I think Melo winds up someplace else and signs an extension (NJ, Houston, LAC). Then, we can get back to hoping our guys pan out, which I’m totally game for, as I think it’ll be entertaining and promising. But if a star becomes available, I’d trade any of our unproven support guys.

  22. Ted Nelson

    AY: If New Jersey gets Melo, they make the playoffs. He’s good enough to lead your team into the 2nd round.

    He’s been to the 2nd round once in his career…

  23. Z

    Donnie Walsh:To acquire Webber it cost the Warriors Penny Hardaway plus 3 future 1st rounders (one that became Mike Miller, one that became Vince Carter). Only to lose Webber after one year because of “irreconcilable differences” with the coach.   

    Ted Nelson: C-Webb wasn’t traded for Gugs straight up, GS also got 3 eventual lottery picks in that deal. If they had used those picks wisely it would have been an amazing deal for them: Kobe, Peja, Nash, and JO all came in the 6 picks after they took Fuller, they drafted Vince Carter…  

    So wait, Webber was traded for the picks that became Fuller and Vince Carter not once, but twice? And why the hell did GS throw in 3 1st rounders along with Penny Hardaway? Wasn’t that kind of a high price? (Imagine if Chicago had traded Rose for Beasley on draft day last year and Miami included 3 future 1st rounders. Obscene! (Though not totally out of line, production wise I suppose…))

    AY: I’d give the Nuggets anything they want for Melo.Gallinari, AR, Douglas, Chandler, Fields, Mozgov all balled together.   

    I don’t think all those guys balled together even equals out salary wise. Which is a good thing!

  24. Robert Silverman

    I think the Nets swiping ‘Melo would be the best thing that could happen to the Nix. He’s Dominique Wilkins 2.0 — a perennial all-star who really doesn’t have the complete game to lead a team past the 2nd round.

  25. Z-man

    Tall, 3-pt shotting non-bangers: second year comparisons for Gallo, Peja, Dirk and Rashard:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=stojape01&y1=2000&p2=gallida01&y2=2010&p3=nowitdi01&y3=2000&p4=lewisra02&y4=2001

    Although he played to a lower PER, Gallo’s stats seem to fit in pretty well with this group. It is noteworthy that all of the other player’s teams won at least 40 games, i.e. they either played with better players and/or more stability than Gallo, or were worth at least 9 more wins; then there’s the back issue…how much did it impact him last year and will there be a visible difference in training camp now that he’s a year (and a summer’s worth of training) removed from it?

    Long, lanky, rafter-dwellers with at least some offensive skill: second year comparisons for AR, Camby, KG and Josh Smith:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=randoan01&y1=2010&p2=cambyma01&y2=1998&p3=smithjo03&y3=2006&p4=garneke01&y4=1997

    AR actually surpassed each of these players in multiple stats, although injury and Nellie’s doghouse limited his minutes. Still, it seems like he belongs in the mix with these guys.

    Is there anyone here who isn’t psyched to see these two flanking Amar’e on the court?? ONE MORE WEEK!!!

  26. Z-man

    Robert,
    Respectfully, I disagree with you on ‘Nique. If Melo was as good, I wouldn’t hesitate. Wilkins suffered from the same career roadblocks as Ewing: playing with no other HOFers/perennial all-stars and getting knocked off by the Bird Celts, Isiah Pistons and Jordan Bulls. Ainge said that if he had played with Parish and McHale instead of Bird, he would have the championships.

  27. BigBlueAL

    I am alot more optimistic about Gallo becoming more than just a tall, 3pt shooting non-banger.

    The reason I say this is because he has shown flashes of being able to do alot of other things than just shooting 3’s and its just a matter of doing it more consistently obviously. He had 6 games of 10 or 11 rebounds and in 5 of those games he played between 30 and 33 minutes. He had season highs of 4 in both blocks and steals with several games of 2 or more in each category.

    In terms of his scoring he started getting to the FT line alot more in the last half of the season. He had 6 games of 10 or more FTA with a season high of 14 FTA’s in a game. In his career high of 31 pts in the April win vs the Celtics he only went 1 of 4 from 3pt range but shot 10 for 15 overall and 10 for 11 from the FT line. The one thing he never showed an ability to do was get many assists except for the game in Golden St which was a joke of a game where he had 8 assists.

    Also his best month of the season was April where in 8 games he averaged 22.4 pts and 5.9 rebs per game in 39.5 minutes so it showed he wasnt exhausted by the end of the season on the contrary actually. Again of course the key is to show an all-around game consistently not just in flashes here and there and to avoid many of his games where he basically only shoots 3pters and gets little to no stats in any other category other than points. I really believe (well at least really hope) that Gallo is capable of being an 18-20 ppg scorer who will get 6-7 rpg and close to 1 steal and block per game with of course great efficiency.

  28. Robert Silverman

    Z-man: Robert,
    Respectfully, I disagree with you on ‘Nique.If Melo was as good, I wouldn’t hesitate. Wilkins suffered from the same career roadblocks as Ewing: playing with no other HOFers/perennial all-stars and getting knocked off by the Bird Celts, Isiah Pistons and Jordan Bulls.Ainge said that if he had played with Parish and McHale instead of Bird, he would have the championships.  

    Well, if ‘Nique had played with McHale and Parish he probably would have won at least one title. But no, he’s not close to being the player Bird was (pre-injury). But, to keep going w/your analogy – say the Nix deal some combo of Gallo/AR/future 1sts/expirings for ‘Melo, where are the Nix going to get their present day McHale/Parish to pair with our “Nique?” And please don’t say Amar’e. Stat’s a very good PF, but he’s not nearly as good as McHale was in his prime and Mozgov (or whomever’s left on the roster) isn’t going to be as good as Parish.

    Basically, If we’re paying 20 million to Anthony, then we’re going to have 40 mil of cap room invested in two guys only and be utterly unable to craft a team capable of beating Miami or LA, and down the road, OKC. You’re building a consistent 50 win team that’s going to lose in the 2nd round at best.

    On the other hand — there’s a chance that AR or Gallo could become a top 10 player. Not a great one, but a chance. ‘Melo, as good as he is, is maybe 10th right now and is at his peak Right now you’d have to rate LeBron, Bryant, Wade, Howard, Durant, Paul, Deron, Brandon Roy, Dirk and either Rondo or Nash ahead of him. The majority of the players on that list have the ability to improve as well. So no, I would not gut the roster and the cap to get Carmelo. Paul or Deron? That’s another conversation altogether

    So if the goal is to win a championship, then trading for Carmelo is the absolute last thing the Knicks should do.

  29. Robert Silverman

    In retrospect, I think there’s an 80’s forward who’s a better comparable for Carmelo — A devastating scorer who can take over a game but barely adequate defender/passer/rebounder.

    It’s our very own Bernard King at his peak (’83 to ’85, up until he blew out his knee v. the then-KC Kings. I still semi-blame Reggie Theus for that.)

  30. Z

    Robert Silverman: In retrospect, I think there’s an 80?s forward who’s a better comparable for Carmelo — A devastating scorerwho can take over a game but barely adequate defender/passer/rebounder.It’s our very own Bernard King…  

    Both Wilkins and King are good 80’s comps to Anthony. I’ll add another high-scoring, low-everything else 80’s SF to the conversation… our own (kind of) Kiki Vandeweghe.

    here’s the 4 player comp site:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=wilkido01&y1=1989&p2=kingbe01&y2=1984&p3=vandeki01&y3=1987&p4=anthoca01&y4=2010

  31. Robert Silverman

    But doesn’t that prove my point? You really can’t win a title if a volume shooting SF (like Melo, King, Nique or Kiki) is your best player. Since Magic won in 1980, every champion has had a top 5-10 guy and 1-2 all-stars backing him up. (the exception that proves the rule being the ’04 Pistons).

    If you’re ok w/a series of 50-win teams but no title, then sure – trade for Carmelo.

  32. Z

    “But doesn’t that prove my point? You really can’t win a title if a volume shooting SF (like Melo, King, Nique or Kiki) is your best player.”

    Yeah, but Z-Man’s point is valid. If ‘Nique played for the Celtics and Bird the Hawks, then he’d have rings and that argument would be moot.

    Here are three high-scoring, low-everything else comps to Anthony that DID win championships:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=anthoca01&y1=2010&p2=worthja01&y2=1989&p3=dantlad01&y3=1983&p4=ricegl01&y4=1996

    (well, okay, fine. Dantley didn’t win a ring, but he came really, really close. Perhaps he proves your point, but the bigger point is: it doesn’t matter who your volume-scorer is. What matters is what complimentary pieces you put around them. Domonique, Kiki, King, Carmelo never play(ed) with Isiah, Magic, or Shaq type talent. If they had, they’d have rings too. What it comes down to is whether Carmelo takes up too much cap space to put other pieces around him. The answer to that question is no; (or at least not necessarily, but it leaves little margin for error, and would require a healthy dose of luck).

  33. Z-man

    King (for 2 years) and ‘Nique were not simply high volume scorers and little else. They were excellent all-around players that dominated games. Had they had better players around them, they would have won titles. Bernard and ‘Nique both took the peak Celts team to 7 games with far inferor teams. I really think the Patrick Ewing analogy holds best. But agree, neither of these guys was close to Larry Bird, but very few were.

    RS,
    Ironically, the guy most comparable to McHale is AR (check Mike K’s similariity scores.)

  34. Ted Nelson

    Z-man: AR actually surpassed each of these players in multiple stats, although injury and Nellie’s doghouse limited his minutes. Still, it seems like he belongs in the mix with these guys.

    I’m hesitent to compare him to Camby and KG at this point. A whole lot of both player’s value–the majority–comes from his defensive prowess on the interior. To date, despite his block and rebound numbers, AR has shown no indication that he wants to play the 4 let alone the 5. You can excuse some of it to lack of physical maturity, but since coming to NY he’s said in interviews that he’s a hybrid 1-through-3… as in he considers himself more of a PG than a PF. Even though he can’t shoot, he considers himself a SG. If he’s coachable maybe this is meaningless, but the only indication we have so far is that he’s not particularly coachable. (Total speculation, but perhaps Don Nelson’s problem with AR was that he wanted him to be a bigman and AR insisted on dancing around on the perimeter…) So, I have a hard time comparing AR to former DPOYs until he shows me something resembling the necessary attitude.
    The blocks and rebounds tend to correlate to strong defense, and I also hope that he will develop in this regard. I’m not sure it’s a given, though.

    BigBlueAL: I am alot more optimistic about Gallo becoming more than just a tall, 3pt shooting non-banger.
    The reason I say this is because he has shown flashes of being able to do alot of other things than just shooting 3?s and its just a matter of doing it more consistently obviously.

    Gallo rebounds like Peja… A guy like David Lee can get 20, 25 rebounds in a game, but that doesn’t mean he will become “more consistent” and average 20, 25 rebounds a game. Maybe Gallo will improve different aspects of his game (I certainly expect him to improve some), but right now his numbers match up with those of spot-up shooters.

    BigBlueAL: I really believe (well at least really hope) that Gallo is capable of being an 18-20 ppg scorer who will get 6-7 rpg and close to 1 steal and block per game with of course great efficiency.  

    That’s basically Peja Stojakovic, who is… a 3-pt specialist. Peja has averaged 6 rpg 3 seasons on his career. He’s averaged 1 spg and 1.8 apg on his career. He’s been a valuable player on his career, but no one is calling Peja a “banger.” The other two players Z-Man compared Gallo to are Dirk and Rashard Lewis. Rashard averages almost 6 rpg on his career, 1.1 spg, and 1.8 apg. Dirk averages 8.5 rpg plus a steal and a block per game. I don’t understand how you can argue with Z-Man’s comparisons by saying that Danilo will average 6, 7 rpg when that’s that these guys are doing… I mean he is comparing him to a perennial MVP candidate, a guy who was the most valuable offensive player in the league one season, and the 2nd best player on a serious contender and that’s not good enough? Is Danilo going to be the next LeBron? Right not Danilo’s numbers make him the worst rebounder and the worst playmaker in the group for his experience level. Maybe he significantly improves, but I’m not counting on it. Guys like Peja and Reggie Miller have been very valuable primarily as dead-eye spot-up shooters.

  35. Ted Nelson

    Robert Silverman: If you’re ok w/a series of 50-win teams but no title, then sure – trade for Carmelo. 

    Considering that the Knicks have been to the playoffs twice in the last decade without advancing past the 1st round and have little shot at winning a title in the foreseeable future…
    I’m not that high on Carmelo either, but I don’t see either “teams don’t win titles with volume scoring SFs” or “team X didn’t win a title” as valid arguments against getting him. Championships are won by teams and only one team per year can win one, plus Knicks would like trade a volume scoring SF–Gallo–for Melo.

  36. Lost My Knickers

    I dont understand the arguement that blames Randolph’s for his strained relationship with Nelson and for his lack of PT. On this team we saw Nate get benched for 14 or so games in a row because D’antoni couldnt stand him. In the first game back out of the doghouse, Nate scorched the hawks for 41 and a win. When D’antoni finally had enough and shipped him off to Boston, Nate played tremendously in Boston’s semi-surprising playoff run. Randolph’s lack of time shouldnt be an indictment on his talent but can be chalked up to “philosohpical differences” between him and Nelson.

  37. Garson

    I think the most important question is : Does Melo coming to the knicks block the possiblity of us obtaining Paul or Deron in 2012.

    Can we possibly afford one of them? If so, trading or signing for Melo is a no brainer. A nucleous of Paul/Deron , Melo and Stat is our best possible chance of taking down the fairies of south beach.

  38. Frank O.

    I refuse to get excited. I refused to get excited.

    —-

    ESPN reports that in the past 72 hours, Carmelo Anthony’s representatives have increased pressure on Denver to deal the superstar to either the Knicks or Bulls before training camp opens next week.

    The Knicks remain Anthony’s top choice but the Bulls are now firmly established as a close second. The Nets and Rockets are also in the picture.

    Some within the Denver organization favor slowing down the process, hoping that Anthony might reconsider his stance once he is back with the team on a daily basis.

    The Knicks are offering either Danilo Gallinari or Anthony Randolph, but not both, along with the expiring contract of Eddy Curry. New York may also include its 2014 first-round pick.

    The Bulls appear to be unwilling to offer Joakim Noah, proposing instead a deal centered around Luol Deng, Taj Gibson and a first-round pick.

    Contrary to a recent report, the Rockets are not making Kevin Martin available in their bid to acquire Anthony.

    Read more: http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/69206/20100922/melos_camp_steps_up_pressure_for_trade_to_knicks_or_bulls/#ixzz10GumOFeR

  39. DS

    @44 – No. If the Knicks can unload some combination of Felton, Turiaf, Kelenna, Chandler they can afford an elite PG AND ‘Melo.

    @41 Ted, even if Nelson’s opinion of Randolph matters (which I don’t think it does) you have to consider that AR WAS starting and/or getting major minutes when he had his season ending injury. GRANTED Golden St. had some major injuries and we’ve seen players like Nate Robinson go from starter to “DNP – Coach’s decision” in a flash — I still think it’s worth considering.

  40. Ted Nelson

    Lost My Knickers: I dont understand the arguement that blames Randolph’s for his strained relationship with Nelson and for his lack of PT.

    Not having any inside knowledge of the Warriors’ organization makes it hard to definitively argue either way. Even if we all worked for the Warriors I’m not sure we’d know the answers.
    In general the posters on this site will probably be as receptive to the idea that playing time is often beyond a players control as just about any other site (why we quote per 36 and rate stats more than per game stats). A lot of posters will agree with you. However, the players who end up in a coach’s doghouse to the point where they’re getting 20 mpg on a bad team are rarely guys with All-NBA talent who are busting their butt and working their hardest. Take your Nate example. As much as I think Nate is an above-average NBA combo-guard who has produced his game is limited by his height and no one has ever called him a team leader. He played well in the playoffs, but was still in-and-out of Doc Rivers’ rotation and KG’s doghouse (not that Rivers is anymore infallible than D’Antoni or another coach). I disagreed with Nate’s benching, but it wasn’t like not benching him would have made the Knicks a significantly better team… the way some nut job coach benching a really great player might.
    Back to AR… not playing for or getting along with Nellie doesn’t doom him by any means, but it raises some questions. In a few years we may look back at it as nothing more than Nellie’s disagreeableness and/or AR’s immaturity, but we also might see it as the first in a line of coaches AR failed to impress/get along with… maybe somewhere between the two. At this point we can really only speculate unless you have some more inside knowledge. Hearing AR call himself a perimeter player when he has little perimeter game doesn’t really push me towards thinking he’s got his head on totally straight either.

    Garson: A nucleous of Paul/Deron , Melo and Stat is our best possible chance of taking down the fairies of south beach.  

    I don’t know that a nucleus containing Melo is necessarily any better than one with Gallo and AR. Depends mostly on how those two develop, as well as whether Melo develops any further.

    Frank O.: I refuse to get excited. I refused to get excited.

    I’m not that excited to trade for him before the season… Would be more excited for him to hit free agency in 2011 or at least a mid-season trade. I don’t want to trade either Gallo or AR, though I can understand why Walsh would almost have to trade either one for Melo at this point in time…

    DS: @41 Ted, even if Nelson’s opinion of Randolph matters (which I don’t think it does) you have to consider that AR WAS starting and/or getting major minutes when he had his season ending injury.

    He averaged 20 mpg playing on the Warriors. Again, I’ve never said that Nelson’s opinion dooms AR. I’m saying that it is a negative and that it does raise questions. How many truly great players got into coach’s doghouses? People are running around comparing AR to KG… but, guess what, KG never got in any coach’s doghouse that I know of. He was playing 40 mpg and leading his team to the playoffs at 20 years old. He reportedly works as hard as anyone in basketball. Not being KG doesn’t mean AR can’t be a very valuable contributor to the Knicks (or Nuggets), but I also can’t just pretend like great players with great attitudes and work ethics end up in coach’s doghouses to the extent it cuts their minutes in half on a bad team all the time… it almost never happens. As I say above, in a few years we might say it was nothing or we might say it was the start of a recurring pattern… at this point we just don’t know. And even guys with recurring attitude problems can have long, productive careers when they’re as talented as AR (C-Webb, Spree, Sheed, Artest to name a few… 3 of those 4 guys attitude problems did translate to great defensive intensity at least, which I’m waiting to see how much AR brings…).

  41. Garson

    @47 Ted: I don’t know that a nucleus containing Melo is necessarily any better than one with Gallo and AR. Depends mostly on how those two develop, as well as whether Melo develops any further.

    Point taken, however Paul is clearly intrested in creating his own 3 headed monster. Melo is monster #2.

  42. DS

    @47 “I’m saying that it is a negative and that it does raise questions. How many truly great players got into coach’s doghouses?”

    MY POINT was that it seemed like Nelson WAS starting to trust Randolph.

    But in any event, it took Jermaine O’Neal, Kobe, and KG to be worked into their respective teams’ rotation. Couple that with fact that Nelson doesn’t have the best track record and I think it’s a very small negative. How many great players had dragged their coach across a gym floor by the neck screaming that they were going to kill him before we traded for Spree?

  43. Ted Nelson

    Garson: Point taken, however Paul is clearly intrested in creating his own 3 headed monster. Melo is monster #2.  

    Could be the best way to go, but by then Gallo and AR might both be monsters… I guess the chances of both hitting their ceiling is limited, so hopefully if Knicks trade for Melo they ditch the right one…

    DS: MY POINT was that it seemed like Nelson WAS starting to trust Randolph.

    I don’t see that… http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randoan01/gamelog/2010/
    Not that it REALLY matters. Point is that red flags were raised. Sometimes those turn out to mean nothing, sometimes they mean a lot… usually somewhere in between. Only time will tell.

    DS: But in any event, it took Jermaine O’Neal, Kobe, and KG to be worked into their respective teams’ rotation.

    I also find this erroneous. JO was a late bloomer, but he played on a stacked Portland team while AR’s GS teams were bad. Even then I don’t remember hearing JO causing problems in Portland. Perhaps it’s injuries, but I would not compare JO to KG or Kobe. Kobe and KG both played for better teams (due in no small part to their own presence) and still managed to earn close to 40 mpg by age 20… These guys were the best and second best players on playoff teams at an age where AR was fighting to get off the bench for a lottery team. Again, none of this dooms AR and he can be a very valuable Knick even if he’s never KG, Kobe, or JO. But I can’t pretend like the situations are comparable.

    DS: How many great players had dragged their coach across a gym floor by the neck screaming that they were going to kill him before we traded for Spree?  

    When was Spree ever great? He was a solid player but no where near great. If AR becomes Sprewell… that’s a nice piece of the rotation but I don’t hesitate to trade him for Carmelo Anthony.

  44. Ted Nelson

    Brian Cronin: What’s the most attractive reasonable offer the Rockets can make for Melo?  

    Maybe Battier, Jordan Hill and/or Patrick Patterson (Patterson would require another salary to make the deal work), Chuck Hayes, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, the Knicks next 2 1st round picks, rights to Sergio Llull and/or Lior Eliyahu… with other teams involved and/or lined-up to take a couple of those guys for bigger contracts so Denver has 15 players.

    Or maybe Kevin Martin, Chuck Hayes/Jordan Hill, Patterson, Budinger, and the Knicks next 2 1st rounders… plus Llull or Eliyahu.

    I might prefer Battier, but I don’t know.

  45. Z

    Garson: I think the most important question is : Does Melo coming to the knicks block the possiblity of us obtaining Paul or Deron in 2012.
    Can we possibly afford one of them? If so, trading or signing for Melo is a no brainer. A nucleous of Paul/Deron , Melo and Stat is our best possible chance of taking down the fairies of south beach.  

    Unfortunately, it’s impossible to know until the new CBA is put in place.

    Under the current CBA it would be difficult to add Paul as a FA in 2012 with ‘Melo on the books. But he could be brought in in a deadline trade 18 months from now for the expiring contracts of Felton, Chandler, and Turiaf ($15 mil) plus Randolph/Gallo (whichever doesn’t get traded for Carmelo).

  46. Z

    Brian Cronin: What’s the most attractive reasonable offer the Rockets can make for Melo?  

    How about:

    Rockets get: Anthony, Billups

    Nuggets get: Hill, Jeffries, Knicks’ 2011 pick, Brooks, and Yao.

  47. ess-dog

    If it’s between the Bulls and the Knicks, and the Bulls won’t give up Noah, then I imagine that the Knicks would win that battle. It would be tough to part with Gallo or Randolph though.
    Ted, you’ve seen Randolph actually say he’s a 1-3 on the court? I would love to try him at the 2 as a hybrid guard if he can defend the position, but I can’t see that happening. Basically the goal should be to get Amare, Gallo and Randolph the most minutes possible. These guys probably wouldn’t gel until 2011, but a lineup of Felton, Randolph, Gallo, Amare, Mosgov is just dripping with potential. But Melo is the bird in the hand while Gallo/Randolph are the two in the bush. It’s a tough call. What odds are greater? That Walsh can actually put together a 3 headed monster of Paul-Melo-Amare or that one of Gallo/Randolph will become an all-star?

  48. Ted Nelson

    ess-dog: Ted, you’ve seen Randolph actually say he’s a 1-3 on the court?

    I think it was on Mike and Mike in the morning or similar. I’ve seen it in writing not just heard it, so I’m sure it’s out there.

    It’s not like he was a jerk or a knuckle-head in the interview (I don’t think), but the disconnect with reality there (I play the perimeter, but I’m 6-11, a very good rebounder, block shots, finish well, can’t shoot, and my ball-handling/passing are raw at best…) struck me as a red flag. Maybe D’Antoni convinces him he’s a 4/5, but maybe he resists D’Antoni and has similar problems with D’Antoni as with Nelson… D’Antoni proved he’s stubborn enough to bench one of his best players just last season…

    ess-dog: I would love to try him at the 2 as a hybrid guard if he can defend the position, but I can’t see that happening.

    If you have the frontcourt figured out and some very good shooters, he could have a lot of value there. Since the Knicks only have one lock in the front-court and most of their shooters play the 2, I think AR is a lot more valuable to them at the 4/5 (if he could, theoretically, play either on the wing or the D’Antoni frontcourt close to equally effectively… I mean his skill set/strengths/limitations might determine his position for him). If AR is the Knicks 2, where are the shooters? He can’t shoot, Felton can’t shoot (well), and Amare’s range is limited plus he’s not a *great* shooter anyway… Turiaf/Mozgov… so Gallo is the only shooter for a coach who likes to jack up the 3s and/or he’s playing TD as his primary PG when that’s not something Coach D seems to want to do. I could see AR guarding SGs for stretches when the match-up calls for/allows it (throw a difference defender at a top SG or play big for example), but I’d like to see him play the 4/5 and limit his outside shots until he can actually hit them.

    ess-dog: a lineup of Felton, Randolph, Gallo, Amare, Mosgov is just dripping with potential.

    I don’t think it would ever “gel” for the reasons stated above… No one is shooting the ball from the outside besides Gallo.

    ess-dog: It’s a tough call. What odds are greater? That Walsh can actually put together a 3 headed monster of Paul-Melo-Amare or that one of Gallo/Randolph will become an all-star?  

    I think it’s simpler than that. It’s what you are trading vs. what you are getting. In theory/realistically I would say that odds are only one of AR/Gallo hits his potential at best… If the Knicks guess right they could ditch the one who doesn’t for something close to what their potential is anyway, guess wrong and they might regret the move. Then again, maybe neither hits his potential: medium-medium or worst-case-worst-case… And there’s a slim but definitely not insignificant chance both hit their potential on the head and are both appreciably better than Melo. So, maybe it’s actually not that simple…

    This deal shouldn’t be made with CP3 on the front of anyone’s mind I don’t think, but in the back yes. A lot can happen between now and then… CP3’s coming off an injury plagued season where his production suffered (still one of the best PGs in the NBA but not clearly All-NBA first team). He’s got no cartilage in his knees and is short, so the chances of him playing much past 30 are slim. He’d be entering his 27 year old season after free agency 2012.
    The Knicks can’t ignore CP3 either… and not really CP3 but just flexibility in general. Hopefully Melo could be open to at least taking a Miami sized deal to make getting more talent down the line easier. Those deals are pretty unprecedented, though, and I expect Melo to get the max he can…

  49. Ted Nelson

    Ted Nelson: ess-dog: a lineup of Felton, Randolph, Gallo, Amare, Mosgov is just dripping with potential.

    I don’t think it would ever “gel” for the reasons stated above… No one is shooting the ball from the outside besides Gallo.

    Could be a big part of the rotation, I suppose, but a healthy dose of… say… TD and Azu would be needed. Some guys who can really bomb it from downtown. I just think D’Antoni would go mad coaching that team, and even more conventional coaches would struggle to get the offense going unless Gallo really steps up his usage.
    Would love to see TD outplay Felton, but he obviously looks more like a combo-guard.

  50. Ted Nelson

    Brian Cronin: I assume/hope that a significant increase in Gallo’s usage is a major part of the plan this year.  

    I agree, but I’m talking to around 30%… from 16 to 19.3 to 30… it’s possible but it would be remarkable. It’s hard to find that many spot-up jump shots… Reggie and Peja both had/have career usages in the low 20s, touching mid-20s in their mid-20s.
    Or if AR’s shot improves really significantly (he didn’t improve from year 1 to year 2 and was an awful jump shooter both seasons… eFG% of .333 and .342 on 56% Js).
    Otherwise, you don’t want Felton shooting, you don’t want AR shooting, and you don’t want Timo shooting much besides chip shots… playing AR at the 2 cuts directly into the minutes of two of your most efficient scorers in TD and Azu… not to mention WC who people are hoping for score at about a 55% TS% this season. It also cuts into AR’s strengths as a rebounder and basket defender… fine on other teams maybe, but the Knicks need him to do both because no one else stands out in those areas. Short-term I’d like to see what AR can do in the front-court for D’Antoni and not to rely on Gallo/Stat for 60% of the offense or watch Felton and AR hurl the ball in the general direction of the basket. Long-term I guess things can figure themselves out.

  51. Z-man

    Gallo and Randolph have been working out at the Knicks training facility for the better part of a month already. AR has apparently been working on shooting with Phil Weber (I think) and Gallo on explosiveness, flexibility and post-up moves. This coming after a summer of both working out independently (AR bulked up and rehabbed his ankle and Gallo on the same things mentioned above.) So far, at least, all the right things are happening.

  52. Z-man

    @41 “I’m hesitent to compare him to Camby and KG at this point.”

    I think comparing is OK, but will concede that predicting these guys as AR’s destiny is premature. There certainly are similarities at this point, physically and statistically. The validity of the comparison probably depends mostly on what is between AR’s ears and inside his chest. The concerns you raise are certainly valid, but so far I like what we’ve seen and heard since the trade.

    I don’t think it’s a given that AR will be a bad mid-range shooter, especially if he’s willing to work at it, which is what he’s been doing. The good FT% is promising in that regard. He may not become Gallo, but he might be something like KG in that regard if he works at it.

  53. Ted Nelson

    Z-man,

    61: Definitely encouraging, and there’s plenty of reason to think both will take strides towards becoming the players they are capable of being (whatever that is… in both cases it’s very good, but we’ll see exactly how good… that’s not pessimism, just that no one can know for sure). Still… Shaq has worked on his free throw shooting for years and I’ve read articles about how hard Mike Dunleavy Jr. works in the offseason on explosiveness…
    I am more skeptical about Danilo gaining athleticism–maybe the back has been an issue as some speculate… and even with no explosiveness or quickness whatsoever Hedo manages to do a lot on the court. Still, his stats scream Peja Stojakovic, which is not a bad thing. While Randolph’s shot should improve the question is how much… even with a good, solid improvement he’s still a bad/mediocre jump shooter… I certainly hope he does, but realistically I doubt he goes from awful to great in one off-season. Maybe he’s managed to fix his mechanics or just never did any work in the past, but short of that it’s going to take a couple of years in even the best case scenario where he becomes a strong jump shooter. (And that’s relevant in the conversation of whether AR should be the Knicks starting SG this season, which was what was being discussed.)

    Z-man: The validity of the comparison probably depends mostly on what is between AR’s ears and inside his chest.

    That’s all I’m saying… People are comparing him to former DPOY bigmen and at the same time hoping he’ll play SG… He’s a very versatile player with a lot of upside to go with already strong production, but… he can’t do everything all at once. He’s shown little inclination to play inside, on the one hand, and little perimeter skill in the half-court, on the other. I think there’s a good chance that his skills and athleticism will transcend position, but there’s also a chance his limitations will keep him from excelling at any one position.

    Z-man: I don’t think it’s a given that AR will be a bad mid-range shooter, especially if he’s willing to work at it,

    I never said he won’t or can’t… I said that he hasn’t been for two seasons and showed no improvement from year 1 to year 2… Those are just facts, I’m not stating any opinion whatsoever. I also said what I said in the context of calls for AR to be the Knicks starting 2-guard in a line-up that also features Felton, Amare, and Timo… none of whom is a good outside shooter. In my meaningless opinion, AR’s value to the Knicks is in the frontcourt. That’s based both on his career production (reb, blks, jump shooting) and on D’Antoni’s history with Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw. Frontcourt talent is scarce, and the Knicks have a potentially excellent frontcourt player. I personally wouldn’t have him dancing around on the perimeter as a 2 guard.

  54. Ted Nelson

    Also, in D’Antoni’s offense there should be plenty of opportunities for AR to play on the perimeter as a frontcourt player next to an inside guy like Amare, Timo, or Turiaf. I just see him as a 4/5 for D’Antoni, but maybe I am wrong.

  55. Z-man

    @64
    Agree, although it is possible that on the defensive end he might be valuable on the perimeter in a big lineup configuration.

  56. Ted Nelson

    Z-man: @64
    Agree, although it is possible that on the defensive end he might be valuable on the perimeter in a big lineup configuration.  

    It’s possible, but the Knicks need more help in the middle than on the perimeter at this point.

  57. Z-man

    Not sure I agree with that. Mozgov, Turiaf and Amar’e should be capable in the middle, and Gallo doesn’t really have the lateral quickness to be effective guarding 1’s and 2’s. Randolph might be good at defending PGs in certain situations, like Jeffries did at times (I recall it being very disruptive, even when we had Lee masquerading as a post defender.) I’m sure that D’Antoni will experiment with it and I am curious about it myself.

    Overall, though, I agree that AR should spend the majority of his time on the court near the paint.

  58. Ted Nelson

    I’m not sure you actually disagree with me. You specifically say that “AR should spend the majority of his time on the court near the paint.” This is in 100% agreement with what I said. I also specifically said earlier that I do think AR can guard a perimeter player when the match-ups warrant it. That is not the discussion here. The discussion is whether AR should be the Knicks primary SG or not.

    It’s not that the Knicks interior defense looks terrible (should certainly get better than it’s been… which has been among the worst in the league… and that’s not all Lee, because their primary 4 was Al Harrington…), but it could certainly be better than Amare/Turiaf/Timo. Going based on the presumption that interior defense is generally more valuable than perimeter defense, I’d rather have AR helping out in the middle and maximizing his most valuable skills as a rebounder and shot blocker. I think this also matches up with the Knicks other personnel 100%.

    Amare is not a terrible interior defender, but he’s also not good. The criticism he takes for his defense is exaggerated, but not baseless. He will never be a candidate for all-defense.
    Turiaf is also not a great defender, though he may be solid. He’s a guy who has never played 20 mpg and played on some terrible defensive teams in GS that he failed to help. He can guard the post and block a shot here and there, but no one is going to confuse him for Bill Russell.
    As much as I’m optimistic, Timo has shown nothing in the NBA and didn’t even dominate in Europe. He’s far too foul prone to be counted on as your primary interior defender. Theoretically you can ask him to do that for the 15-20 minutes he’s on the court and live with the fouls, or play him more minutes and ask him to be less aggressive.

    On the perimeter the Knicks have strong defenders in WC, TD, and Felton. Azu is solid and so is Mason. No one is going to ask Gallo to play guard–although D’Antoni did actually use him on 1s pretty frequently last season. I’m suggesting he play the 3. Everyone on this site has a fit when I even suggest Gallo is an average defender because they think he’s such a great defender…

    Again, to repeat this another time, D’Antoni can’t run his offense with only one shooter on the court. Getting a shooter in there at the 2 seems like a logical step if you assume Amare, Gallo, and AR are the Knicks’ best players and Felton is their only true PG.

    All this assumes that AR can actually guard frontcourt players and secure the lane with help defense, which I myself pointed out is a leap of faith. I’d just rather give him a chance to fail in the “middle” before using him on the wing. (*D’Antoni’s version of the middle… something like Boris Diaw/Shawn Marion hybrid.)

  59. Z-man

    I was specifically referring to the point that they need more help in the middle than on the perimeter. Whatever we turn out to be, we are vastly improved defensively in the middle, which isn’t saying much. A legitimate defensive strategy is to harass the perimeter to create shot selection/shot clock problems and to disrupt the P&R. If you have Gallo, Amar’e and Turiaf/Timo at the 3-4-5, you might not pay as high a price when the strategy breaks down up top. I understandd that there would be less perimeter shooting capability on the offensive end, but I am less down on Felton than you are in this regard (he shot pretty well from 3 last year) and TD is also a PG option on the perimeter. Both are good in the passing lanes and if AR’s length causes issues for opposing ball movement up top, what we lose in perimeter shooting we can gain in turnover/transition baskets.

  60. Ted Nelson

    I guess we do disagree then… (which is odd since you specifically said that you think AR should be in the frontcourt… which is why I think we’re basically saying the same thing in different ways) I think Anthony Randolph is about as good a fit for a D’Antoni bigman as you can get, especially if his jumper becomes at least respectable. I’m not worried about the perimeter defense (WC, Felton, TD… maybe the 3 strongest defenders on the team for their positions). I also don’t want to see AR sacrifice his biggest strengths on both sides of the ball to float around on the perimeter full-time.

    Z-man: Whatever we turn out to be, we are vastly improved defensively in the middle, which isn’t saying much.

    Exactly, it’s not saying anything… AR still has the most defensive potential of any bigman on the roster. Far more than Amare and Turiaf, certainly. The only one you could even argue for is Timo, and the evidence just suggests he’s very foul prone. Think of all the guys AR is compared to favorably… KG, Camby, Lamar Odom, Josh Smith… None of those guys play primarily on the wing. They are all frontcourt players in today’s NBA. If Larry Brown’s your coach I can see AR primarily on the wing, I can’t see it with D’Antoni.

    Z-man: I was specifically referring to the point that they need more help in the middle than on the perimeter.

    WC, Felton, TD, and Azu don’t strike you as relatively better defenders at their position than Amare and Ronny Turiaf?

    Z-man: if AR’s length causes issues for opposing ball movement up top, what we lose in perimeter shooting we can gain in turnover/transition baskets.  

    What you lose in perimeter shooting, plus what you lose in AR’s rebounding and potential as an interior/help defender. Plus what you lose in AR’s superior finishing ability by forcing him to take more Js than he should be (ala Ariza in Houston).

    I can see going with either strategy, but I can only see Mike D’Antoni going with one as his *primary* strategy. I have specifically said I can see AR guarding the perimeter on D for stretches (can’t really see him playing the 2 on offense). Boris Diaw played primarily at the 5 for D’Antoni, but he would also guard PGs at times. I can even see a Felton, Gallo, AR, Amare, C line-up for stretches, I just hope that it’s not the Knicks primary line-up with Mike D’Antoni as their coach… I’m more inclined to look at D’Antoni’s history for clues than to assume he completely changes his philosophy on the game and team strategy and becomes Larry Brown.

    Z-man: I am less down on Felton than you are in this regard (he shot pretty well from 3 last year)

    I am not “down” on him… I simply looked at the stats. Even if he can repeat his 2009-10 shooting (which is far from a given… and that’s on 156 3PAs after he hit .280 and .285 from 3 the two previous seasons… on his career he’s semi-decent .327 3P shooter), he’s still not a strong outside shooter. Solid, but not strong for a coach who likes his team to take more 3s than any other team. If you have a 2 a 4 and a 5 who take zero 3s combined… that puts a lot of pressure on the 3 and 1 spots on any team. Felton is not an awful outside shooter overall, but for a PG he’s definitely not a good one. Not if Amare is going to be the 3rd most accomplished 3pt shooter in your primary line-up…

    Randolph has 1 career NBA 3Per… Even if he improves by leads and bounds as a shooter, is it really fair to assume he’s going to be a 3pt threat in year 1?

  61. Z-man

    I agree that we are saying the same things in different ways, and that this is better a 2nd or 3rd defensive strategy option than a primary one (I never said that this is what we should hang our hat on, and I agree that if D’Antoni does, he’s making a mistake.) I am probably more optimistic than you regarding how effective it might be when it is used, even on offense (in this lineup, Gallo should slide to the 2 on O and the 3 on D.) There were times when it was very effective last year with Jeffries out on the perimeter, and he had nothing behind him and not much 3pt shooting on the other end either, not to mention his own deficiencies. I just think that it is a good situational option to work into the overall strategy. Compared to last year, it is nice that we have several defensive options that don’t expose glaring weaknesses all over the place (well, maybe rebounding?)

  62. Ted Nelson

    Haven’t tried to quantify it, but I’m not worried about rebounding. Turiaf/Amare is the only weak rebounding front-court combo: Amare being average and Turiaf being below. If you do have Randolph on the wing with those two, I’m not worried about rebounding. Any combo with 2 of Amare/Timo/AR figures to be a strong enough rebounding front-court (depending on whether Timo plays to his Euro #s or WC #s… even if he splits the difference he should be a solid rebounder though). The Knicks perimeter guys seem to be largely at least average for their positions (Bill Walker being one negative exception).

    So I can see why a potential Turiaf/Amare starting front-court raises rebounding questions, but in the larger rotation Turiaf is probably only getting 20 mpg… if he beats Timo out. If the Knicks miss a couple rebounds that your average team would have gotten it doesn’t doom them if they’re scoring efficiently, holding onto the ball, playing defense, and creating TOs. If they struggle in one or more of those areas, it might compound any rebounding deficiencies.

    Considering that the Knicks played mostly terrible rebounding 4s next to Lee last season–Harrington, Gallo, Jeffries–they should be improved this season over last season. AR isn’t much of a step down from Lee last season (though he might not get as many minutes), and Amare/Turiaf/Timo are better rebounders than Harrington/Gallo/Jeffries. If D’Antoni settles on or is forces to play a primary group of Amare, Gallo, Walker, Douglas, Felton… then I’d be worried about rebounding–and more so with Turiaf in for Amare–but then the Knicks would probably also have bigger issues with injuries and/or production.

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