Brian Cronin: I mean, yes, if the Knicks were as bad as the 2004 Nets or the 2000 Pacers or the 2001 Sixers, then fair enough, but they’re better than those teams. They’re more similar to the 2009 (9, right?) Orlando Magic.

This is where we differ. I do think NY is similar to that Orlando team in that they will have a big hole to dig out of when they do give up on their core because they have so much invested in aging players. However, I don’t think they’ve proven that they are closer to ORL than the 2001 76ers. You can’t look at 20 games where you had basically the entire rotation playing at levels that they’d never sustained across a season (or in Kidd’s case, several years) and treat that evidence the same as those west teams that’ve won 55+ games across seasons in a MUCH tougher conference.

I didn’t just randomly choose to rank the Knicks lower. THey just have two disadvantages that most other competitive teams, with the exception of BKN, IND, CHI and BOS (all ranked lower than NY BTW) have. They are REALLY old, have no cap space, and gave away a potential lottery pick in the Melo trade. All those west teams I rank so highly, with the exception of LAL & SAS, have young stars who’re likely to at least sustain their high level of play for the next 6 years. The Knicks’ 3rd best player is Kidd, who is LIKELY to turn back into a pumpkin before the season is over. For that reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if, for example, a team like ATL finished ahead of NY in the standings this season.

I understand your point about empty potential in the case of teams like ORL, WAS, MIL & Utah, and even POR, CHA & DAL, so I could see putting the Knicks around 15th or 16th, but it’s hard for to see them any higher, especially with only 30 games of evidence, the last 1/3 of which hasn’t been that impressive.

Philadelphia might (stress might) have a brighter future, but it is an extremely unclear one, so how could you project them to have a better chance at winning a title in the next six years? Charlotte, Portland, Atlanta, Orlando, Milwaukee, we know nothing of what their future will hold, so how in the world can we project them at having better odds at winning a title over a team that we know is a top team right now?

When projecting chances of winning an NBA title in the next six years, you simply have to go with the teams that are the best right now first. And the worst part is that you did that for all the Western teams and then just abruptly decided to drop the Knicks from the rankings for no compelling reason that I can see.

Chicago, by the way, is also playing without their best player who is young and is going to return this season. They were a #1 seed just last season with many of the same players, so when Rose returns, they should be a realistic title threat, as well, so should also be higher than teams like Charlotte who we know nothing about, future-wise.

I don’t see how my rankings are that absurd. In August, Hollinger and Ford’s future power rankings ranked the Knicks 20th, and their rankings include the weight of the Knicks being a great market. They were 29th in future cap space, 29th in future draft picks and 15th in players. The players rank is kind of low, and probably should be more like 7-12th, but their future hopes are near nil.

This season will be the Knicks’ best more than likely until after my 6 year window is over. Stoudemire’s contract is just too big and bad for the team to overcome when they lack a true superstar, and the roster is too old.

Maybe the Knicks make it to the conference finals this year, but that’s no more an achievement in this awful eastern conference than the Iverson Sixers or the Kidd era Nets. Did you ever really believe those times would win a title? If not, maybe you’re wearing orange and blue colored glasses.

Juany: “Who cares if you have youth if none of those players are ever going to be on the level of Chandler or Melo?”

If LA had said that when they traded for the Kobe draft pick, where would they be? What about the Spurs when they had the option to tank in duncan’s draft year? Yes, the vast majority of draft picks suck. However, you’re more likely to find the next MJ, LBJ or Duncan in your random lottery pick than for Carmelo Anthony or Amar’e Stoudemire to put up even one Lebron caliber season. You’re also more likely to have a chance @ recruiting one of those players via free agency if you actually have the cap space to pay them… or the draft picks to trade for them.

If you find one, all you need is some prudence & wisdom and you’re likely to be a top 3 team. Without one, everything needs to be perfect, and you need great luck.

Brian Cronin:
Max, the Knicks’ location on your list is just absurd. They are likely going to be the #2 seed in the East this year. So to say that the current #2 seed is the 23rd most likely team to win a title in the next six years is ridiculous.

Also, Chicago and Boston are also way too low, especially Chicago.

I thought it was joke at first, at least I laughed out loud reading it. Who cares if you have youth if none of those players are ever going to be on the level of Chandler or Melo? How is there no mention of front office level of ability? I’d take Sam Presti over the next 6 years over everything Washington, Sacramento, and Phoenix have combined.

Also, Chicago and Boston are also way too low, especially Chicago.

1) OKC (1-6 all legit title contenders this year)
2) Miami
3) Memphis
4) LA Clippers
5) San Antonio
6) LA Lakers
7) Minnesota (future superstar rubio, superstar love, intriguing supporting cast)
8) New Orleans (future superstar Davis, youth, picks, cap space)
9) Cleveland (future superstar Irving, youth, picks, cap space)
10) Golden State (solid core, cap space)
11) Houston (youth, budding superstar, cap space)
12) Charlotte (cap space, picks, youth)
13) Portland (Lillard, Batum)
14) Utah (cap space, young talent)
15) Denver (youth, picks, some bad contracts)
16) Philadelphia (youth, bynum’s health)
17) Atlanta (cap space, good contracts)
18) Dallas (Dirk, cap space, aging core)
19) Orlando (picks)
20) Chicago (rose/noah core, Rose’s knee)
21) Milwaukee (youth, unappealing location)
22) Washington (youth, lottery, bad contracts)
23) New York (solid Melo and Chandler core, aging supporting cast, lacking picks & youth, amar’e's contract, ownership content with 2nd rate team)
24) Sacramento (Cousins, cap space, poor ownership)
25) Detroit (lacking cap space, bad contracts)
26) Toronto (Valanciunas, Lowry, bad contracts, unappealing location)
27) Phoenix (mediocre & middle aged roster, LA’s draft picks)
28) Boston (old, lacking cap space)
29) Indiana (middle aged, Hibbert’s bad contract, Granger’s health)
30) Brooklyn (overpaid aging stars, lacking cap space & picks)

The parentheticals show reasons to worry and to be excited. The numbers above are pretty close to how psyched I would be for New York to be in each of the above teams’ situations.

To make an analogy, it’s like the Knicks just got an open dunk when they were down 3 with 1 second left. Why should I be excited about that?

Injured hands aren’t exactly an ideal condition Felton was much better earlier on, and has in fact never shot this badly, so no this isn’t normal. Also…

“Jesus I don’t get why it’s so hard to understand my argument. Lin is a better player than Felton, but he’s like the number 18 PG compared to the number 20, it’s not a big fucking difference. Lin has the potential to get better while Felton does not, so in a year or 2 it’ll probably be a bigger difference.”

If we’re going to have a realistic discussion you can’t misrepresent my arguments, which are actually many of your arguments. Also, I don’t care how many times I have to say this, the problem with being over the cap is NOT a lack of ability to sign players. It’s not like the mid level was going to get you a great player as opposed to the mini mid level, and guys like Ray Allen and Shane Battier have been perfectly happy to take the smaller amount for a chance to play in a city they want on a contender. No the real problem is the restrictions on trades that happen. Teams like Dallas and the Lakers used to be able to take on big contracts from crappy teams in order to get better, they never cared about how much over the cap they were. After the new CBA, both made direct cost cutting moves to keep flexibility. Dallas got Tyson Chandler after being over the tax for years. That would no longer happen

BigBlueAL:
I think its safe to say the Lakers could win the championship this season and ruru would say it was in spite of D’Antoni’s horrible coaching lol.

lol that’s true, now that the team is playing better it’s all because of Ron Artest :p