Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Kyle O’Quinn Hindering Knicks Chemistry

The New York Knicks have a Kyle O’Quinn problem.

O’Quinn’s been the top option at backup center so far. Kyle has played 34 minutes this season or about 35% of New York’s first two games. Head coach Jeff Hornacek could reduce O’Quinn’s minutes by splitting the team’s center minutes between Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah. If he staggers them correctly, the duo could still play together for stretches while still optimizing the position for a full game.

While O’Quinn’s per minute stats have always been solid, posting quality rates across multiple categories, he does have his weaknesses. On defense, O’Quinn struggles to protect the paint, and doesn’t have the foot speed necessary to defend smaller fours. That leaves him guarding the opponents’ biggest player, putting him closest to the hoop where his inability to wall off the rim can be exposed. For O’Quinn to be a successful defender he has to be near perfect from a mental standpoint – reading and anticipating plays by taking away angles. He lacks the physical tools to make up for mental mistakes.

O’Quinn also hurts the team on the defensive glass. The Knicks rebounded worse with him on the court last season and the trend has continued early this season. On the offensive end, O’Quinn can’t create shots and isn’t able to punish smaller players in the post.

Perhaps O’Quinn’s skillset is just ill-fitted for this team, and his style of play pushes them away from the characteristics needed to get the most out Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. O’Quinn’s court presense alone is taking time away from Porzingis playing at center. He forces the second-year forward farther from the rim defensively instead of allowing him to maximize his length near the basket.

O’Quinn needs another big man next to him with his defensive deficiencies, hence has played 23 of his 34 minutes paired with either Porzingis or Willy Hernangomez (KOQ and Hernangomez should never ever happen – there’s not a worse pairing of players to put together on the roster). This harms Carmelo, as Anthony benefits from the ability to play the 4 where it suits him.

A smaller role for Quinn might be with Noah. Playing two bigs with Joakim can work due to his passing ability. Noah can make up for the lack of physical space with superior ball movement.

Hornacek should grasp what O’Quinn is as a player and how his role affects the team’s on the floor chemistry. It’s not just that Porzingis and Noah are both better than KOQ, but keeping one of the two at center pushes the Knicks towards more athletic, versatile groups. Reserves such as Justin Holiday, Lance Thomas, Ron Baker and Maurice Ndour are all capable of guarding multiple positions. The Knicks’ coach should realize he can make the team more cohesive with some of the other options on the bench.


Liked it? Take a second to support bgibberman on Patreon!

68 comments on “Kyle O’Quinn Hindering Knicks Chemistry

  1. jkhar

    I thought O’Quinn has looked decent so far in 2 games, but I do agree his minutes should be limited… to about 15-18 a game tops. Also, KP is not a center right now, I think you wouldn’t be playing to his strengths by using him that way. I honestly think he stands to get hurt playing any real minutes at center at this stage in his career.

  2. lavor postell

    I’m not a fan of KOQ, but we’re 2 games in. Chopping and changing the lineup this soon is silly.

    I think Hornacek understands that reacting dramatically to this small of a sample size is the kind of thing that makes it difficult for players to develop a comfort zone. I also think it’s very hard for KOQ to have a positive rebounding impact when he’s often playing in lineups with minus rebounders at every other position, so I don’t hold that too much against him.

    Offensively I thought he was good against Memphis because he made quick decisions with the ball and was smart about crashing the offensive glass. It’s defensively where he’s a huge liability, often stemming more from poor positioning, lack of awareness, subpar athleticism and most frustrating, an annoying propensity to commit asinine fouls.

    My feeling is that as frustrating as he is at times a good coach can extract decent back-up C play from him. It’s early, but I see signs from Hornacek that he might be that guy.

  3. Nick C.

    Didn’t Noah foul out last game? That could explain some of O’Quinn’s playing time. Beyond that do we really want to go all D’Antoni with Noah and KP and ride the treads off their tires? Backup center, if we are looking for a rebounding, paint clogging defensive presence is lacking, but that probably is the case with most teams.

  4. Mike Kurylo

    Those of you who worship at the altar of stats maybe choose to ignore that context or don’t think its relevant, and that’s fine. You see the cold numbers for what they are…
    I and others disagree with you and reasonably infer from those same stats, the contextual background that perhaps the physical and psychological toll of two devastating knee injuries, likely surmountable for today’s modern athlete, may take more time than the cold stats you fervently cling to. That perhaps you take into consideration the unique factor of everyone’s ability to cope with potentially life altering injuries , since you know, athletes aren’t robots like your cold hard numbers suggest, but flesh and bone human beings.

    You’re right. We rely on stats too much when evaluating professional basketball.

    By the way, how is the winner of a basketball game decided? I forget. Do the officials huddle up and qualitatively consider the unique factor of everyone’s ability? Do they rate the effort of the flesh and bone human beings involved in the contest and declare a winner?

    Surely they don’t use a non contextual method as looking at a cold hearted number…

  5. Frank

    Copying forward from previous thread (this KOQ thread started right after I posted!)

    A thought i had this morning as I was looking at the Adams 4/$100MM, Oladipo 4/$84MM contracts, Schroder, etc. It seems the NBA world in general is happy to overpay for the first 2 years of a contract as long as the player “grows into” the contract, whereas the opposite is not true. ie. – if Joakim Noah outperforms a $18MM deal for the first two years and underperforms it for the last two, is that not basically the same as the first set of examples?

    btw, color me completely surprised at how well the Bulls are playing. Lopez isn’t shooting well but has been a monster on the offensive boards, and it turns out that NOT running the offense through him actually makes him NOT turn the ball over. Amazing. And just imagine when the next coming of Chris Paul — Jerian Grant — actually gets to dress for games instead of getting Marshall Plumlee’d on the bench. They will be unstoppable. lol. sorry, couldn’t resist.

    The guy who has been really interesting from the Rose trade (for me) has actually been Justin Holiday. He looks like a beast on defense — with his wingspan and quick twitch athleticism, he kinda looks Corey Brewer-ish out there. If he can shoot league average from 3, he IS an asset. Obviously it’s a small sample, but I feel way better about our wing defense now (between Lee, Holiday, and hopefully Lance) than I did at the start of the year.

    I’m really looking forward to the next couple games. Would love to see how Noah matches up against Drummond, and if Hornacek decides to go stretches with KP as a stretch 5 in a small lineup against the Jazz to get Gobert away from the basket.

  6. Mike Kurylo

    And I get the point that looking at stats without context can be a mistake. Rose might play well. His last 2 years might be a function of his poor health. There could be something outside of the numbers (or some things) that have caused the numbers to be less relevant to how Rose will function on this team this year. It’s entirely possible that Rose outplays his last 2 seasons.

    However I stand firm to the notion that the default position on Rose is that the rational expectation for him this year is in line with those numbers until proven otherwise.

  7. Nick C.

    The poor guy who wrote this thread must be crushed that all is have served as is a repository of posts recycling other often much discussed topics.

  8. lavor postell

    Maybe he’s being showcased for a trade?

    It’s possible but I don’t see it that way. The Knicks need somebody to give them 10-15 MPG at back-up center and while Willy may get there in time, that time isn’t now. I like what Hornacek is doing by trying to get KOQ some decent burn in spelling Noah alongside some of the starters and also mixing in Willy here and there to help his development. He has already demonstrated a much better understanding of how to balance wanting to win games with a desire to develop his young guys.

    I also suspect that if Lance’s struggles continue for 8-10 games into the season, Kuz will get a chance to steal some minutes. Ndour also should figure get some burn at some point if KOQ’s inconsistencies continue.

  9. Z-man

    You have to wonder whether Plumlee could be as effective in KOQ’s minutes. O’Quinn is so herky-jerky that he stumbles into getting fouled and can rack up FTAs. But he is a horrible finisher, useless in the PnR, has no post game, doesn’t run the floor and is at best a mixed bag on D.

    I’m not for giving his minutes at C to KP per se, but would like to see the Knicks quietly shop him and take a risk that a better (maybe MUCH better) alternative can be found. There’s always the next Hassan Whiteside lurking out there somewhere.

  10. Frank

    I see NDour being more a replacement for Lance Thomas than for KOQ. I was really disappointed by NDour’s play in the preseason. Theoretically he’s perfect for playing next to Melo being able to crossmatch the 3/4 positions, having some rim protection attributes, and having some semblance of a jump shot, but he was just all over the place. His jumper was way way off. Hopefully he’s showing better in practice and is able to get some minutes.

  11. lavor postell

    @Frank

    I think the Knicks agree with your assessment of Ndour and I suspect is a reason why they signed Inglis back to Westchester. Very similar player in size and position.

    I agree Ndour isn’t a like-for-like replacement for KOQ, but my thinking is Ndour would siphon his mintues with KP getting more time at C and the Knicks would play smaller

  12. Brian Cronin

    Good piece, Bryan! I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from O’Quinn this season, either. Hopefully he improves, though, as I don’t see a good replacement.

  13. Owen

    Good post. I had the same feeling watching KOQ. He does some things well but definitely he feels like the hollow core of the defense when he is out there.

    Also, writers gonna write people, whether it’s been two games or not. Can we all operate with the understanding that it’s going to be a short sample for the next six weeks and just pretend that there is a footer at the bottom of every email that says Small Sample Size observation?

  14. Mike Kurylo

    I see NDour being more a replacement for Lance Thomas than for KOQ.

    Yes. My thinking was put Porzingis as the second team center, which would open up some minutes for Ndour to play at the 3/4. Also I don’t think power forward suits Zinger as well as C. The numbers show he’s slightly more efficient at the 5, but his defense is better at the 4. Although, as we are all aware, this is just 2 games of stats, so not really statistically meaningful.

  15. sugarslim5

    @Lavor Postell

    I Agree he needs to stop with the crossover. Its basically pointless. He’s 7’3 just go up stronger. And His 3 Ball hasnt been connecting. He really Needs to find more consistency on Jumper.

    Rose’s defense has been good so far. The ball is still ticking in Melo’s hands entirely too long. He needs to give the ball up after missed shots and let the guards push it. He’s still trying to bring the ball up. Thats annoying. I hope Phil and Jeff speak to him AGAIN about that. Let Rose push it on the break and fill the lane. Flare out for 3’s & than maybe we’ll see some more Assists.

    And the spacing is still not great. Not many great Driving lanes. Rose is creating really from nothing. Imagine when they start playing KP at the 5 with Rose. More driving lanes. More assists.

    The Knicks are running something called the triangle. Not sure why you’d take the ball out of Melo’s hands. Spacing issue is do to Phil’s weird anti 3 philosophy. Biggest weakness so far if you ask me.

  16. ILoveHatetheKnicks

    Come on Mike, that’s bull. I never said it was unreasonable to base your analysis of who Rose is now and will always be, on stats. I explicitly even stated it was a rational and plausible opinion to have. I can see how some of what was in my initial post, like “statheads” or “worship at the altar of stats” can come off sounding condescending or dismissive of your point of view, but that doesn’t mean you should intentionally cherry pick my post to make some unnecessary point that I don’t understand the relevance or place of stats, when nothing in my initial post indicates that.

  17. DRed

    O’Quinn is fine. Is he as good as Noah or Porzingis? No, but that’s why he’s the backup.

    It would be interesting to roll out some Porzingis or Noah at center with some of our combo-ish forwards (Ndour, Carmelo, Kuz, Holiday or Lee) at the 3/4 but I wouldn’t say any of those lineups are definitely better than playing O’Quinn.

  18. Brian Cronin

    Ray Allen officially retired. What an odd way to handle retirement. “I’ll hold off on saying anything for a couple of seasons and then retire when everyone has stopped caring about whether I retire or not”

  19. d-mar

    Would it be hyperbole to say Allen’s 3 point shot to send game 6 against the Spurs into OT was the most clutch shot in Finals history? He said later that he used to practice receiving the ball and running out to the corner to launch 3’s.

    And if he misses, Lebron is 2-5 in the Finals, 1-5 going into last season. Whole different narrative.

  20. JK47

    O’Quinn is fine as a backup big who plays fewer than 20 MPG. He’s a low-IQ player and he does a couple of dumb things pretty much every game but at least he brings some production to the table. Last year some of these minutes were going to Kevin Seraphin, who is terrible at everything, so if you subtract 526 terrible Seraphin minutes and give those to O’Quinn, that is certainly an upgrade. That would mean O’Quinn plays something like 1200-1300 minutes, which seems about right. That’s around 15 MPG.

  21. Brian Cronin

    Would it be hyperbole to say Allen’s 3 point shot to send game 6 against the Spurs into OT was the most clutch shot in Finals history?

    I don’t think so. I think it’s fair to call it that.

  22. Brian Cronin

    O’Quinn is fine as a backup big who plays fewer than 20 MPG. He’s a low-IQ player and he does a couple of dumb things pretty much every game but at least he brings some production to the table. Last year some of these minutes were going to Kevin Seraphin, who is terrible at everything, so if you subtract 526 terrible Seraphin minutes and give those to O’Quinn, that is certainly an upgrade. That would mean O’Quinn plays something like 1200-1300 minutes, which seems about right. That’s around 15 MPG.

    I don’t like O’Quinn much, but yeah, he’s the best they’ve got right now. And thank heavens he isn’t Seraphin!

  23. Early Bird

    I’m always for trying new things, but without O’Quinn we’re likely to get killed on the boards. He’s our second best rebounder by a wide margin.

  24. shanferg

    This was very astute analysis. You are dead on. The Cavs game turned when J Horn put KOQ & Willy on the floor at the same time. KOQ does some good things offensively at times (good passer, can knock down a jumper), and can get boards, but he is such a liability defensively. He just can’t defend the rim. The majority of the time he comes in the Knicks give ground. This article is completely accurate.

  25. chrisk06811

    Of course Plumlee can do it, he’s a Plumlee. They are all basically the same. The closest statistical match for a Plumlee is other Plumlees, and to now there has pretty much been no deviation. Give him 15 minutes and he will do Plumlee things.

  26. johnno

    “Would it be hyperbole to say Allen’s 3 point shot to send game 6 against the Spurs into OT was the most clutch shot in Finals history? He said later that he used to practice receiving the ball and running out to the corner to launch 3’s.
    And if he misses, Lebron is 2-5 in the Finals, 1-5 going into last season. Whole different narrative.”
    And what no one ever mentions is that, right before that shot, LeBron completely bricked a shot from the top of the key, barely hitting the side of the rim. If Allen doesn’t hit that shot, LeBron’s brick would have been talked about for years.

  27. JK47

    O’Quinn also hurts the team on the defensive glass. The Knicks rebounded worse with him on the court last season and the trend has continued early this season.

    O’Quinn is a perfectly fine defensive rebounder– his career DRB% is a solid 24.2, and he was easily the best defensive rebounder on the team last year. If the team rebounds worse with him on the floor it certainly doesn’t seem like it’s his fault because dude rips down plenty of rebounds. His career DRB% is higher than Noah’s.

    Perhaps some of this is the effect of Robin Lopez’ vaunted ability to box out? Maybe O’Quinn does not box out, so while he gets a lot of boards, he doesn’t create those opportunities for his teammates? It’s just odd that the team would be worse at defensive rebounding when they have their best defensive rebounder on the floor.

  28. Early Bird

    The Knicks rebounded worse with him on the court last season and the trend has continued early this season.

    Just want to point out that basketball reference lists the Knicks’ top 5 man lineups from last season.

    For O’Quinn it lists these two lineups:
    The 1st lineup counting for 115 min has Derrick Williams and Lance Thomas as his forwards.
    The 2nd lineup counting for 33 minutes has Derrick Williams and Arron Afflalo as his forwards.

    O’Quinn played 764 min. last year. At least 148 min (19.4%) of which were with two of the worst sets of rebounding forwards I can think of.

    Knick Lineups

  29. Mike Kurylo

    I can see how some of what was in my initial post, like “statheads” or “worship at the altar of stats” can come off sounding condescending or dismissive of your point of view…

    And also this.

    “You believe due to the sample size post injury, that this reasonable inference is the new Derrick Rose reality, and there’s no way you can be convinced otherwise.

    So here’s a question. Let’s say going forward Derrick Rose is a 51.5% ts% guy post injury, not the 48.2% player he’s been the last 3 years. By mid-season or end of season Rose’s ts% will be close to 51.5% as you would expect. Do you not think statistical minded folk will then see that as the new reality? Or will statisticians (namely I) hold onto the belief that he’s still a 48.2% guy?

    Now follow-up question, we don’t know what Rose’s ts% actually is. Perhaps he’s improved and cured of the ailments/trial/context that made him a 48.2% shooter. Perhaps he’s just that same inefficient player and those are merely excuses to mask his new lack of talent. It’s entirely possible that Rose’s condition is degenerative and his production will decrease. How would you know? Would it be presumptuous to assume he’s no longer a 48.2% shooter? Based on what evidence?

    Context can help describe anomalies in statistics. But unless you have empirical data showing that specific context is directly affecting the player(s) in question, it’s just subjectivity, no?

  30. Early Bird

    Continuing my last post, Boxscore Geeks lists the avg production for Bigs, Wings, and Pgs.
    AVG Wing REB: 6.4
    AVG Big REB: 12.4
    AVG Pg REB: 5.5

    Wings*:
    Lance Thomas: 4.8 reb, -1.6 below avg
    Arron Afflalo: 5.4 reb, -1 below avg

    Bigs:
    Derrick Williams: 9.9, -2.5 below avg
    Kyle O’Quinn: 15.7, +3.3 above avg

    The guards in the lineups were Grant and Galloway who grade out to +.2 above average for the remaining Pg & Wing spots.

    *Note too that Afflalo and Thomas are supposed to be the 3’s in the lineup and so are likely even further behind that average.

    Box Score Geeks Knicks 2015

  31. JK47

    The Pistons’ starting point guard is Ish Smith, and he’s a small and skinny dude who simply does not have the body to play NBA-level defense. He’s a fucking terrible player. This is a good opportunity for Rose to have a big game.

  32. JK47

    @JK47 I’m guessing Smith will guard Courtney Lee with KCP guarding Rose.

    Yeah, I saw some Pistons fans say the same thing. SVG knows what he is doing when it comes to coaching defense, too. Lee is even a worse size mismatch for Ish than Rose, though, so hopefully Hornacek figures out some way to exploit that.

  33. JK47

    So are we saying that defensive rebounding isn’t Kyle O’Quinn’s fault, and that he’s actually good for our team in that respect?

    I mean, his personal rebounding numbers have to count for something. He had a 24.5 DRB% last year, and if he had qualified in minutes that would have placed him just outside of the top 20 in the league.

  34. glidepath

    Yeah, no disrespect, Mike, but citing team rebounding and ignoring individual rebounding is basically the contrapositive of “wins are the only stat that matters”

  35. Brian Cronin

    Freaking CBS Sports. What are they thinking? They dumped Zach Harper. What the heck? Do they just have no money at all?

  36. lavor postell

    Do they just have no money at all?

    Gotta keep as much money as you can to make sure Phil Simms stays broadcasting meaningful NFL games

  37. Brian Cronin

    Ha! It really does seem like it. They are just hemorrhaging all of their great online writers. Jon Heyman, like him or dislike him, is one of the most famous baseball sportswriters out there and they just tossed him. They must be in dire straits.

  38. swiftandabundant

    Man, I sure got a lot of flack for my “wins are the only stat that matter” line. And I can see why.

    Someone responded to me basically saying that the headline of this blog says “statistical analysis” so if I was going to be anti-stats then maybe I didn’t belong here.

    Here’s the thing. I’m not anti-stats. I just think that there are some hardcore stat heads on here who love to talk down to those of us who are less stats oriented. If it was just as easy as picking the players with the best stats then I truly believe more teams would do that. And when drafting players, picking free agents, making trades I totally believe in taking that into account.

    What I take issue with is people cherry picking stats or bludgeoning a fan who disagrees with your assessment of the stats bc its been shown pretty handily that stats do not tell the whole story. Regarding Rose, we won the game. So its frustrating as a knicks fan to go to a blog the next day and read so much negativity regarding the team and a particular player when we won the game against a team we’ve lost to 6 times in a row. No talk about the awesomely efficient KP or Noah or Lee or Hornaceck’s rotations. Just complaint about Rose. That’s lame guys.

    It also says “Knicks” up there and “humor.” The humor is what initially drew me to this blog years ago. That’s been jettisoned both by the writers of the blog and the commentators. Its too much negativity and “I told you so” on this blog. IF you’re stats obsessed or knowledgeable, that’s great. Write about it in your comments. But don’t act like you have a crystal ball or belittle those of us who chose to be positive about the team.

    And I bring this up many times the last few years. CAN WE PLEASE BRING BACK THE GAME RECAPS AND PLAYER GRADES?!?!??? Its what drew me to this blog in the first place. They were awesome.

  39. lavor postell

    And I bring this up many times the last few years. CAN WE PLEASE BRING BACK THE GAME RECAPS AND PLAYER GRADES?!?!??? Its what drew me to this blog in the first place. They were awesome.

    This

  40. Mike Kurylo

    Freaking CBS Sports. What are they thinking? They dumped Zach Harper. What the heck? Do they just have no money at all?

    Making the books look good for the possible Viacom merger? (Re-merger?)

  41. Mike Kurylo

    Yeah, no disrespect, Mike, but citing team rebounding and ignoring individual rebounding is basically the contrapositive of “wins are the only stat that matters”

    No disrespect taken. I didn’t write the article.

    I’m more curious knowing what the truth is.

  42. Cock Jowles, El Más Honorable

    Here’s the thing. I’m not anti-stats. I just think that there are some hardcore stat heads on here who love to talk down to those of us who are less stats oriented. If it was just as easy as picking the players with the best stats then I truly believe more teams would do that.

    The first baseball “sabermetrics” book was published in 1964 by Cook and Bill James began self-publishing in 1977.

    “Better” numbers were available before the advent of personal computers, but a billion-dollar industry did not widely employ those numbers until the 2000s. Let that sink in, and then reconsider what you said in the above quote.

    It’s not just basketball! There’s overwhelming consensus from statisticians and strategists that punting is bad football, yet punting is still the overwhelming choice by football decision-makers. The problem is not with the numbers; it’s with the culture that says, “Don’t trust the numbers. Trust the experts.”

    After fifteen years of ineptness — spelled briefly by my low-usage savior Tyson Chandler — how could anyone look at the Knicks and say, “Trust the experts?”

  43. Mike Kurylo

    And I bring this up many times the last few years. CAN WE PLEASE BRING BACK THE GAME RECAPS AND PLAYER GRADES?!?!??? Its what drew me to this blog in the first place. They were awesome.

    Problem is the lack of resources. Also uber-talented writers like Jim, Robert, etc. end up going on to bigger/better things because — heck they should. Knickerblogger is like the Westchester Knicks. Be excited when we get that awesome guy — but also be prepared to experience that loss when they go on to the big show.

    That said I’ll put up a “Help Wanted” sign.

    Of course if you know anyone that is interested or see any good prospects on other sites/twitter/etc. Send them my way!

  44. kevin5318

    And I bring this up many times the last few years. CAN WE PLEASE BRING BACK THE GAME RECAPS AND PLAYER GRADES?!?!??? Its what drew me to this blog in the first place. They were awesome.

    +1. Its the best part of Knickerblogger besides reading Theo’s comments.

  45. Mike Kurylo

    It also says “Knicks” up there and “humor.” The humor is what initially drew me to this blog years ago. That’s been jettisoned both by the writers of the blog and the commentators. Its too much negativity and “I told you so” on this blog. IF you’re stats obsessed or knowledgeable, that’s great. Write about it in your comments. But don’t act like you have a crystal ball or belittle those of us who chose to be positive about the team.

    The rest of the internet is full of sites that are willing to turn a blind eye to stats and be optimistic homers. Statistical minded folk don’t really have a corner where the objective component is first, hence when we go elsewhere we get belittled about our ideas. Heck this blog wouldn’t exist if it weren’t for my experiences on RealGM and trying to convince people that Vin Baker wasn’t going to be the magical piece that turns this franchise around.

    You can literally go to any Knicks site, forum, article, sub, etc. and talk happy about the Knicks in a positive manner and be warmly accepted as one of the gang. I don’t have that. And yes I created a stats-first space here for the Knicks, but you think I get that anywhere as a Jets fan?

    Additionally some of us don’t want to be happy with mediocrity (a polite term for what we’ve gotten.) To me that’s the antithesis of being a real fan, something I’m often accused of not being. Why should I get s++t in a bowl served to me and call it a sundae?

    I demand that my team, the one I root for, the one I die for, is the best. Not to pretend it is, while everyone else around me is having fun with their playoff-bound teams.

    Sorry if your optimistic smile is crushed by our realistic world view. There’s lots of places for you to go to stay happy. But if you’re here, we’re not going to sugar coat the world for you. I welcome all to come here, and I look forward to the day the optimists come here to laugh at me. Been waiting almost 13 years…

  46. Cock Jowles, El Más Honorable

    Also, teams do have access to better stats and apparently use them, hence why the Spurs had cycled through bargain-basement-priced big men without ever having to offer one a long contract.

    http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players/1383-dewayne-dedmon

    I doubt he’ll stay at those ridiculous rate numbers, but I also doubt he starts playing like a replacement player anytime soon, especially since his previous 1500 MP were pretty damn good…

  47. Frank

    by the way OKC just does not seem to care about 1st rounders at all. They traded Ilyasova PLUS a protected 1st (1-20) to get Jerami Grant?!? Really? Doesn’t Jerami Grant sort of suck, or at least not do anything better than Andre Roberson? And I haven’t really looked that much into it but the cap savings from Grant seem to matter only for this season according to Woj.

    Check that – he has a WS/48 of 0.148 this year. Oh wait. that’s NEGATIVE 0.148 this year.

  48. Ras1980

    We should look to get Nerlens Noel. He’d be a nice frontcourt piece to add. A shame we don’t have shit to trade for him though.

  49. Ras1980

    And His 3 Ball hasnt been connecting.

    Two games in and you’re complaining about KP’s three point shooting? What?

  50. Brian Cronin

    by the way OKC just does not seem to care about 1st rounders at all. They traded Ilyasova PLUS a protected 1st (1-20) to get Jerami Grant?!? Really? Doesn’t Jerami Grant sort of suck, or at least not do anything better than Andre Roberson? And I haven’t really looked that much into it but the cap savings from Grant seem to matter only for this season according to Woj.

    They traded Harden just to avoid the luxury tax. I think that they are just that cheap.

  51. Frank

    It’ll be interesting to see whether draft picks will be as valuable under the new collective-bargaining agreement. From all reports it sounds as if rookie salary as will be going up, and also the cap Hold during restricted free agency will be going up as well.

    The reason draft picks were so valuable was not just that you could get a potential great player, but also that that player would be relatively underpaid compared to veterans, and that you could play the caphold game in order to basically get extra cap space during free agency. The new CBA seems to have addressed some of those inefficiencies.

  52. Brian Cronin

    It’ll be interesting to see whether draft picks will be as valuable under the new collective-bargaining agreement. From all reports it sounds as if rookie salary as will be going up, and also the cap Hold during restricted free agency will be going up as well.

    The reason draft picks were so valuable was not just that you could get a potential great player, but also that that player would be relatively underpaid compared to veterans, and that you could play the caphold game in order to basically get extra cap space during free agency. The new CBA seems to have addressed some of those inefficiencies.

    You can improve rookie scale and rookie cap holds and they’re still going to be extremely cost efficient assets. Let’s say Porzingis’ salary was doubled, he’d still be way under the value he would get on the open market, with the drafting team still owning the ability to keep KP for the fifth year through restricted free agency and the ability to cut bait after three if the rookie doesn’t pan out.

    Plus, rookie scale is only really for the first round – second round picks are still going to be super cost efficient.

  53. lavor postell

    That pick philly is getting won’t be conveyed at the earliest in 2020 since they still have a pick they need to send Utah for the Kanter deal which may happen in 2018 but might not be conveyed until 2020.

  54. GoNyGoNyGo

    And I get the point that looking at stats without context can be a mistake. Rose might play well. His last 2 years might be a function of his poor health. There could be something outside of the numbers (or some things) that have caused the numbers to be less relevant to how Rose will function on this team this year. It’s entirely possible that Rose outplays his last 2 seasons.

    However I stand firm to the notion that the default position on Rose is that the rational expectation for him this year is in line with those numbers until proven otherwise.

    @9 – MikeK.
    I want to take the opportunity, as one of the way-too-positive, sun-is-shining, dudes, to say that I agree with this post 100%. I too understand the heavy reliance on stats. Anyone that’s seen my fantasy baseball analytics is blown away by my reliance on stats. But, stats, devoid of context, are sometimes misleading. I’m the one that keeps saying that I rely on the eye-test, which is true. But I don’t ignore advanced stats. In the case of Rose, and Noah, health is one of those factors. It’s big question mark hanging over both of them. I hope they stay healthy and start to produce.

    But one fact remains. Comparing Rose to Calderon is like comparing Pete Rose to Celerino Sanchez.

  55. Geo-n-SoCal

    Of course Plumlee can do it, he’s a Plumlee. They are all basically the same. The closest statistical match for a Plumlee is other Plumlees, and to now there has pretty much been no deviation. Give him 15 minutes and he will do Plumlee things.

    on topic with the OP (maybe a first for me)…this is the way i’d go with it…out with KOQ – in with Plumlee…i think we’d be better served with rebounding and defense…i have more faith in Plumlee bringing that to the table than KOQ…

Comments are closed.