Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Knicks Win Fourth Straight

Tonight the New York beat the Bobcats at home 110-107. The Knicks led for most of the game, and started off the fourth quarter with a 14 point lead. But Charlotte whittled away and dropped it down to 3 (94-91) with 8:09 left, making the Knicks earn the victory. New York shot well from inside the arc (58%), outside the arc (40%) and the free throw line (96%). They had 25 attempts from the charity stripe, led by Gallo (8-8), Stoudemire (7-7) and Felton (5-5).

Toney Douglas was en fuego racking up 22 points on just 12 shots in only 24 minutes. All the Knick starters scored in the teens (Turiaf’s 12 counts as a teen, right?) and each of them had at least one blocked shot. Turnovers was an issue and Amar’e racked up 7.

The Knicks head to Charlotte tomorrow for a back-to-back game. They haven’t won 5 straight games since January 11th 2005, when they defeated Dallas 117-115 in overtime. Larry Brown was the coach, and the Knicks would win a 6th against the Hawks before dropping their next 10 games.

44 comments on “Knicks Win Fourth Straight

  1. BigBlueAL

    TD was on fire tonight but every time Felton sat and TD was left to play PG the offense went to crap, especially early in the 4th quarter which prompted D’Antoni to bring Felton back quicker than he wanted to.

  2. massive

    10 straight losses? Wow.

    I hope we can sweep the Bobcats in this home and home series and get this team to .500. It was nice to see Toney Douglas play so well again. I almost forgot how fun he was to watch when he’s on.

  3. Z

    Another solid win. Had to hit free throws at the end, but like against the Clips, GS, and Kings, Knicks controlled the game, playing like the better team for (almost) all of the game.

    A lot to like. FTs!, blocks!, steals!, Interior D!, and shot selection! (At least I didn’t yell at the TV at all. Maybe all shots look like well selected shots when they go in :)

  4. Nick C.

    A very nice win. Dicey at the end but no bone head plays, ill advised shots, foolish fouls, missed FTs or any number of buffooneries that caused them to lose these games in years gone by. What’s good is there seem to be two or three different players every game that are the “stars” for the team, plus Felton. Here as mentioned above it was Fields, TD and Turiaf. In other games Gallo and Stat. Its a good thing and for the unmpteenth time so great to have a team to root for where the biggest drama is how will our 10th man with a world of potential (Randolph) react to watching and learning. BTW did they set some sort of record for charging calls and what is with the TOs coming in bunches???

  5. Z-man

    @9 re: bonehead plays, I thought there were a number of bonehead plays: Felton’s turnover near the right baseline and Amar’e getting trapped in the corner, to name two. The play for the first 8 minutes of the fourth, and again when we were up by 8 with 2 minutes to go, was very sloppy. Amar’e regressed back to the first few games offensively, and the 3 unnecessary offensive fouls also affected him defensively, he was much less aggressive once he got into foul trouble. He did make those monster blocks and scored a big bucket in the post down the stretch, though.

    I was glad we hung tough, but hate to depend on making every single free throw down the stretch in a game where we have a 14 point lead going into the 4th quarter. Still, this would have ended in a devastating loss two weeks ago.

  6. Z-man

    It is nice that on a night when certain key guys are having off-games (Chandler and Amar’e, and even Gallo to an extent) others stepped up (TD, Turiaf, Fields.) That’s a mark of a good team.

  7. Nick C.

    You are right about the bonehead plays. I guess I was just thinking in the last minute or so…but with 20 TOs there were plenty to go around in the previous 46 minutes. :-)

  8. NYK Ewing

    I was at the game, and it shouldn’t have been as close as the final score showed.

    We outplayed them most of the game. Our defense was looking much smarter (less stupid fouls, forced bad shots, a bunch of shot clock violations) than we have in the past. One of the biggest things we’ve got to improve on is not letting them get second chances after we stop them by grabbing boards.

    The reason they came back was foul trouble. I think Amare’s first 4 were all offensive fouls, and they were all pretty legitimate calls. The refs called a lot of garbage getting to the end of the 4th, especially the last one against Amare to send him to the bench with 5. Mozgov has overcompensated on not fouling by playing soft on defense, so he really wasn’t a presence when he was in.

    Speaking of which, I really hope we give that big Russian oaf more minutes. Taking him off starters might’ve shaken his confidence… he had three easy buckets off assists from Felton that he just bobbled and turned over. I think he’ll give us some solid rebounds and decent D eventually, and I’m still convinced his problems are mainly just transitioning from playing in Europe.

  9. DS

    #1 Has there ever been a more shiny example of why advanced stats are superior to traditional stats than Ronny Turiaf??

    #2 I’m sure this has been posted but… after last season’s pattern of the Knicks always falling short on comebacks it’s nice to at least be on the other side of the fence as the team who almost gave the game away but holds on for the W.

    Now, lets focus on holding onto leads a little better!

  10. d-mar

    DS: #1 Has there ever been a more shiny example of why advanced stats are superior to traditional stats than Ronny Turiaf??
    #2 I’m sure this has been posted but… after last season’s pattern of the Knicks always falling short on comebacks it’s nice to at least be on the other side of the fence as the team who almost gave the game away but holds on for the W.
    Now, lets focus on holding onto leads a little better!  

    DS – re your #2 – I was thinking the same thing, we’ve had plenty of games in the past where we were the team making the comeback and falling short (and Clyde of course pointing out that “the Knicks can ill afford to trade baskets”)We never gave up the lead in this game, and didn’t seem too rattled at the end, which is a departure from prior Knick teams. Boston also has a habit of blowing big leads and hanging on at the end,…

  11. david

    We looked pretty good until the end, I thought. We are going to need to figure out how to play with Felton getting a bit more time on the pine, though — he was a wreck at the end of the game. Rather than having TD bring it up and do whatever initiation he does, I’d prefer to see one of our better handling forwards do a point forward thing — Gallo or Chandler, perhaps. Or Fields. Alternatively, have td bring it up and run that double high post thing (which we overrely on, but when Felton is out may be necessary) but do the hand-off play with the wings rather than the PG cutting around. TD is a nice player, particularly on defense, but he can’t run the D’Antoni offense at the point guard…

    Anyone have other suggestions on how we can stay in games while Felton rests?

  12. david

    OR alternately, some analysis that suggests that we aren’t as bad off as I think when Felton is off — i haven’t looked at the plus/minus or the offensive efficiency numbers or anything.

  13. domiknick

    david: Anyone have other suggestions on how we can stay in games while Felton rests?  (Quote)

    I’m thinking (hoping?) that when we get Azu, perhaps he’s an option at the 2 who has more experience and better ball-handling. Although, that’s purely speculation, because I haven’t seen him play much. Can anyone back this up at all?

  14. NYK Ewing

    Here’s the thing about running a fast-break offense. You can get a huge amount of points quickly, but you can also lose points just as quickly. When we blew that 16 point lead, at least 6 points came off of fast breaks where we threw the ball away and, since we had numbers on the break, they had numbers on the other side of the court for an easy bucket. We need to get better at transition passing, though I wouldn’t say it’s a weak point.

  15. rama

    d-mar – “#1 Has there ever been a more shiny example of why advanced stats are superior to traditional stats than Ronny Turiaf??”
    True dat!

    z-man – “It is nice that on a night when certain key guys are having off-games (Chandler and Amar’e, and even Gallo to an extent)” — I love that 15 point on 7 shots, 6 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1 block is an off-game! I mean, compared to Gallo’s recent games, it sort of is…but it does underscore what the expectations are for the guy. Over two points per possession and doing a good job defensively (even beyond the stats) is a good game no matter how you slice it.

  16. Z-man

    Yeah, Gallo has gone up in stature to where I had hoped he would be. Would be really tough to trade him now, although I want to see him step up vs. the stiffer competition we will be facing soon.

    Re 15 points on 7 shots, I still have a hard time understanding the use of the pts/shot attempt metric. For example, if you are 2-8, but get sent to the line 5 times on loose-ball fouls on defensive rebounds or reach-ins on dribbles at the mid-court line, and make 12 FTs, technically you scored 16 pts on 8 shots. Even fouls on shots in the act that don’t fall are not counted as shot attempts. Aside from foul trouble implications, why is it better to get 16 points in the above scenario vs 16 points on 8-14 shooting from 2-pt range with no FTs?(which would be 16 pts on 14 attempts)

  17. Z-man

    Just to belabor the point, suppose Gallo went 10-20 from the line and 2-7 from the field, that would technically be 14 pts on 7 shots, despite horrific shooting…

  18. Frank O.

    NYK Ewing: Here’s the thing about running a fast-break offense. You can get a huge amount of points quickly, but you can also lose points just as quickly.   (Quote)

    This is a really good point, and I think it is why the Knicks show such dramatic shifts in leads, their opponents’ and their own.
    Missed shots or turnovers often turn into fast break points, and the Knicks aren’t particularly good at second chance points. They’re only getting 12.9 second chance points per game vs. 15.3 for their opponents on average.

    So, they either score a bunch of points fast, or they don’t and their opponents are able to leverage mistakes or missed shots to create momentum.

    It would seem to me that the Knicks have been shooting pretty well, generally, so you probably won’t see much change there.
    The best way to counteract this problem is by rebounding better on the O boards, or limiting turnovers. To me, the best option for the Knicks, given their O rebounding issues, is to focus on protecting the ball better.
    Last night, the Knicks gave up 30 points off of 20 TOs, which is pretty dismal.
    Amare and Felton accounted for 11 of those.
    Also, I don’t know where to find a break down of offensive and defensive fouls, but I know Amare committed four, which in my view raises the TO count to 24.
    Not acceptable, and a likely contributor to the Knicks’ lead swings.

  19. Nick C.

    I think in most metrics FT = .44 possession so 2-7 (2-6 from 3) and 9-10 FT for 15 points on 7 shots is really 15 points on 11.4 poss, which is good but not as good. I guess a shorthand would be to for every 2 FT add a possession (FGA).

    Wow the Felton stuff is pretty bad. Here I am thinking he is our most consistent player, turns out he is a net negative per on/off court numbers.

  20. cwod

    Frank O.:
    Also, I don’t know where to find a break down of offensive and defensive fouls, but I know Amare committed four, which in my view raises the TO count to 24.  

    I’m not sure I understand this. Offensive fouls count as turnovers anyway.

    We could probably use AR’s rebounding in some instances. Mozgov probably missed a couple last night, just because his hands are so awful.

  21. Caleb

    @18-19 the point of “points per shot” is not to measure how sweet someone’s stroke is; it’s just a quickie way of asking – how efficient is this player when he tries to score? There are better ways, like TS%, but you can’t just pop out a number the same way.

    Felton’s +/- are grotesque. Part of it is just the randomness of small sample size – he hasn’t been off the court all that much.

    Also – especially earlier in the year, when Timo was starting – I would guess that Turiaf was spending a lot of time on the court without Felton. If that’s true, you’re seeing spillover from the Turiaf/Mosgov comparison. It’s also possible that TD has been an even better defender than we’ve given credit for. All other things being equal, you can be the 2nd best defensive PG in the league and still have a bad +/- if the team’s other PG is the #1 defensive PG. (not that Felton and Douglas are #1 and 2 – but you get the idea).

    I might also guess that Felton plays more minutes with Chandler on the bench, than Douglas does.

    None of that explains the bad offensive #s.

  22. phreesh

    I’d be curious how our foul situation is. Seems like we’re getting to the line a LOT more this year than in recent memory.

    I’m also impressed by the quality of our bench this year. We can go 10 deep this season and still have a quality unit on the floor.

    VERY please with Fields. That pick looks like a steal right now.

  23. ess-dog

    A few points:

    – we are still 1st in blocks! truly amazing.

    – Fields is 1st in rookie TS% and 5th in rookie PER. He’s probably not a rookie of the year thanks to Griffin and Wall, but his stats match up with every top rookie. His reb% is the same as Splitter’s, a grown man, power forward with years of pro experience.

    -3 of our starters have a TS% over .600 and Ray is at .591. Amare is inching closer as well.

    – 4 starters have WS48 over .130 and Amare is improving.

    – Gallo and Fields are both top 12 in the league in offensive rating.

    – Darko is 1st in the league in block % :( BUT Ronny, Wilson and Amare are 11, 12 and 18 respectively.

    – TD is 6th and Ray is 18th in steal %.

    – We’re 3rd to last in opponent FG%. We have to improve that. OKC and Portland are the only winning teams in the bottom third of the league in opposing FG% (Phoenix is dead last and is actually 7-7 thus far.)

    -Gallo is currently 14th in Win Shares – tied with Carmelo Anthony !

  24. BigBlueAL

    I would like to know opponent’s FG% on jumpers/3pters in the 4th quarter because it must be at around 90% lol.

    Any time the Knicks get a fairly big lead the opponent is guaranteed to answer with a 3pter. Granted its usually a wide open one which is the problem. The game when the Knicks play a team that is just plain off from the perimeter the Knicks could win by 50 pts lol.

  25. Nick C.

    Frank O.: This is a really good point, and I think it is why the Knicks show such dramatic shifts in leads, their opponents’ and their own.Missed shots or turnovers often turn into fast break points, and the Knicks aren’t particularly good at second chance points. They’re only getting 12.9 second chance points per game vs. 15.3 for their opponents on average.So, they either score a bunch of points fast, or they don’t and their opponents are able to leverage mistakes or missed shots to create momentum.It would seem to me that the Knicks have been shooting pretty well, generally, so you probably won’t see much change there.The best way to counteract this problem is by rebounding better on the O boards, or limiting turnovers. To me, the best option for the Knicks, given their O rebounding issues, is to focus on protecting the ball better.Last night, the Knicks gave up 30 points off of 20 TOs, which is pretty dismal.Amare and Felton accounted for 11 of those.Also, I don’t know where to find a break down of offensive and defensive fouls, but I know Amare committed four, which in my view raises the TO count to 24.Not acceptable, and a likely contributor to the Knicks’ lead swings.  (Quote)

    I seem to remember hearing it said about Phoenix that they would have big leads that would always come down just as fast as they got them or something to that effect.

  26. JK47

    Let’s compare our rookie Landry Fields with two swingmen who were lottery picks: Wes Johnson and Evan Turner.

    TS%
    Landry Fields .638
    Evan Turner .492
    Wes Johnson .483

    eFG%
    Landry Fields .606
    Wes Johnson .467
    Evan Turner .439

    PER
    Landry Fields 16.0
    Evan Turner 9.5
    Wes Johnson 9.1

    Minutes Played
    Wes Johnson 427
    Landry Fields 419
    Evan Turner 418

    Total Rebound Pct.
    Landry Fields 13.2
    Evan Turner 11.7
    Wes Johnson 6.0

    Total Assist Pct.
    Evan Turner 11.9
    Wes Johnson 11.9
    Landry Fields 8.3

    Win Shares/48 Min
    Landry Fields .133
    Evan Turner .031
    Wes Johnson .015

    Landry Fields is a year younger than Wes Johnson, and a few months older than Evan Turner, and is outplaying both of those guys quite handily. He’s been the third best rookie in the NBA after Griffin and Wall. Landry Fields is a lottery pick who fell to us in the second round, and is a key asset. Amazing find by Donnie Walsh.

  27. BigBlueAL

    So in Hollinger’s Playoff Odds after winning last night, the Knicks odds of making the playoffs actually dropped and is now barely over 20% and only ahead of 2 teams in the East. You have to be kidding me.

    Of course last year in January the Knicks playoff odds were almost at 50% after their decent stretch so there you go lol.

  28. latke

    BigBlueAL: So in Hollinger’s Playoff Odds after winning last night, the Knicks odds of making the playoffs actually dropped and is now barely over 20% and only ahead of 2 teams in the East.You have to be kidding me.Of course last year in January the Knicks playoff odds were almost at 50% after their decent stretch so there you go lol.  

    Yeah, it had a similar change in his power rankings. At first I thought their SOS was worse, but that wasn’t it, because it was already so low (.380 or something) that the bobcats (.357 WP) weren’t going to lower it much. I think what happened was the Wizards win cycled out of the last “last 10″ stats, which really hurt our L10 margin (it was 21 point win), which lowered our ranking overall. Hollinger’s rankings value SOS and average win margin very highly.

  29. Z-man

    @28 JK47
    Yeah, but even Walsh picked Rautins before Fields ;>)

    Seriously, between Fields, TD and the new and improved Gallo, Walsh has done pretty well by us. And who knows, maybe Jerome Jordan develops into something. Rautins? Well, you can’t win ‘em all.

  30. Z-man

    Caleb: @18-19 the point of “points per shot” is not to measure how sweet someone’s stroke is; it’s just a quickie way of asking – how efficient is this player when he tries to score? There are better ways, like TS%, but you can’t just pop out a number the same way.   (Quote)

    Still don’t understand how 2-7 with 10 FTs for 14 points is more efficient than 7-12 with no FTs for 14 points. Even if the first case goes 10-10, if each FT is equal to .5 shot attempts, that translates to 7-12, in which case they are equally efficient. If the second case went 10-20, that translates to 7-17, in which case the 14 points on 12 shots is way more efficient than the 14 points on 7 shots.

  31. Spree8nyk8

    BigBlueAL: So in Hollinger’s Playoff Odds after winning last night, the Knicks odds of making the playoffs actually dropped and is now barely over 20% and only ahead of 2 teams in the East.You have to be kidding me.Of course last year in January the Knicks playoff odds were almost at 50% after their decent stretch so there you go lol.  

    It’s because the hollinger odds are based off of the remaining schedule and our remaining schedule is quite brutal so while the Knicks have improved as of late, some of our remaining schedule has improved as well. I posted in the game thread last night that our ten game schedule starting on December 15th is amazingly brutal. Going 5-5 during those ten games would probably take a miracle. We could go a lot worse and if we are only at .500 when we reach that stretch it’s going to be very difficult to get back to .500. They really are going to need to be 4-5 games over .500 going into that stretch. If they go 5-5 on those ten games you’ll see those odds skyrocket.

  32. Ben R

    Z-man the reason free throws are weighted at .44 of a shot rather than .50 of a shot is because of and 1’s, fouls on three pointers, clear path fouls, flagrant fouls and technical free throws. So while technically if a player went 2-7 and then got 10 free throws on 5 shots if would be exactly the same, free throws are weighted at .44 because I guess 12% of all free throws come from one of the above reasons and therefore need to be accounted for.

  33. latke

    Z-man:
    Still don’t understand how 2-7 with 10 FTs for 14 points is more efficient than 7-12 with no FTs for 14 points. Even if the first case goes 10-10, if each FT is equal to .5 shot attempts, that translates to 7-12, in which case they are equally efficient.If the second case went 10-20, that translates to 7-17, in which case the 14 points on 12 shots is way more efficient than the 14 points on 7 shots.  

    It’s because a certain proportion of your free throws don’t consume possessions: things like and-ones, technicals, and clear path free throws. Apparently, around 12% of free throws come in this form — that’s why FTAs get multiplied by .44 and not .5. If you really wanted to get technical, you could count the number of non-possession consuming FTAs a player has and subtract those from the total FTAs before doing the formula. In that case, if the player we’re talking about got all of his free throws from shooting fouls and never made the FGA on the foul, the real true shooting percentages would be equal.

  34. Frank

    Re: why we seem to have huge leads going to the 4th quarter then nearly lose them, does anyone know if there is one lineup that tends to just get killed out there? Presumably most of the comebacks are happening between 12 and 4-5 min left in the game- is that the second unit that is killing us each time? Maybe MDA needs to switch up his rotations?

  35. ess-dog

    Frank: Re: why we seem to have huge leads going to the 4th quarter then nearly lose them, does anyone know if there is one lineup that tends to just get killed out there? Presumably most of the comebacks are happening between 12 and 4-5 min left in the game- is that the second unit that is killing us each time? Maybe MDA needs to switch up his rotations?  

    I was surprised to see this lineup as our most successful of the heavy usage lineups D’Antoni has put out there: Felton-Fields-Chandler-Gallinari-Stoudemire.

    I know this lineup happens when D’Antoni has had it with Mozgov halfway through the first and subs Chandler for Mosgov. But since Turiaf has been starting, I’m not as sure, although clearly Turiaf has been much better as a starter than Mozgov.

    It seems like Amar’e is actually the one killing us in the 4th just by the eye. The offense stops moving and the ball is then “forced” into Stoudemire which is where most of the turnovers happen either from him or on the passing end from Ray and TD. I think everyone believes that Amare needs to make “big plays” in the 4th and that’s where we get into trouble, and it’s also why Amar’e’s +/- is in the toilet.

    Also it appears that Chandler defends much better compared to his production which softens the blow of his inefficiency somewhat.

  36. Thomas B.

    I would write the game preview but since I stopped posting the Knicks have been winning. So as much as you loyal fans love my work, I’m on hiatus until the Knicks lose.

    Hey, my KB store t-shirt arrived today. Sweet. Great quality fashion for the price of good. Pick up your shirt today.

  37. ess-dog

    Thomas B.: Hey, my KB store t-shirt arrived today. Sweet.Great quality fashion for the price of good. Pick up your shirt today.  

    Did you go with the ‘Mozgov’ or the ‘Pringles’?

  38. Spree8nyk8

    Thomas B.: I would write the game preview but since I stopped posting the Knicks have been winning. So as much as you loyal fans love my work, I’m on hiatus until the Knicks lose.Hey, my KB store t-shirt arrived today. Sweet.Great quality fashion for the price of good. Pick up your shirt today.  

    The knicks have won every game since I started wearing my hoodie while watching, needless to say tonite is a hoodie night.

  39. Z-man

    @36 and @37 Thanks, that makes sense, but doesn’t address the larger issue of whether a player should be said to have been “efficient” just because he scored 14 point on 7 shots, or “inefficient” because he scored 14 points on 12 shots. The .44 vs. .5 differential makes only a marginal impact on this.

  40. Caleb

    @33 You are right – I was just suggesting a way to look at points-per-shot.. it’s not precise, and there are stats that measure efficiency much better, but with PPS at a glimpse you can see if a player generally had an efficient game.

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