Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Knicks SIgn Ronnie Brewer

The Knicks will soon announce that they have signed Ronnie Brewer to a one-year contract for the vet minimum.

Brewer will likely get a good shot at taking the starting job at the #2 while Iman Shumpert is out. Like Shump, Brewer is a strong defender. Also like Shump, Brewer can’t hit a three-pointer (he is a career .244 shooter from three-point land. It will be like Landry Fields never left!).

Still, his defense will be a great addition to the team. I was afraid that Brewer would not be willing to play for the veteran minimum. I am pleased that he is willing to do so.

294 comments on “Knicks SIgn Ronnie Brewer

  1. Jafa

    Great signing, particularly at the price point, after an off-season full of poor signings/trades/non-signings.

  2. jon abbey

    I’m excited about this. I feel good about the potential of this team now (which IMO had zero chance to win a title with or without Lin), and will be curious to see what Woodson gets out of them. they’ll be far from the most aesthetically pleasing team in the league, but I can always watch OKC if I want aesthetically pleasing.

    anyway, despite what ruru has said all offseason about JR Smith starting, I think he’s a better fit coming off the bench (unless ruru knows that JR signed here for less because they promised him he could start):

    Felton or Kidd
    Brewer
    Melo
    Amare
    Chandler

    Kidd or Felton
    Smith
    Novak
    Kurt Thomas
    Camby

    Prigioni
    White
    Copeland
    Shumpert once he’s back

    so we have 14 of 15 spots filled now? am I forgetting anyone?

  3. johnlocke

    I think you got them all. Felton, if in shape, should be the starter. He and Kidd can share the backcourt together at times I think. Still not sure we have enough jumpshooting to complement a Carmelo isolation offense, where he’ll be getting double teamed and swinging the ball. JR, Novak and Kidd are the only Knicks that shoot the three at or above the league average, and Novak is the only elite shooter in the group. From what I’ve seen of JR so far he’s either red-hot or terrible game to game – very streaky. I think our defense will be good, and our jump shooting will improve, but still won’t be a strength next year.

    jon abbey:
    I’m excited about this. I feel good about the potential of this team now (which IMO had zero chance to win a title with or without Lin), and will be curious to see what Woodson gets out of them. they’ll be far from the most aesthetically pleasing team in the league, but I can always watch OKC if I want aesthetically pleasing.

    anyway, despite what ruru has said all offseason about JR Smith starting, I think he’s a better fit coming off the bench (unless ruru knows that JR signed here for less because they promised him he could start):

    Felton or Kidd
    Brewer
    Melo
    Amare
    Chandler

    Kidd or Felton
    Smith
    Novak
    Kurt Thomas
    Camby

    Prigioni
    White
    Copeland
    Shumpert once he’s back

    so we have 14 of 15 spots filled now? am I forgetting anyone?

  4. xcat01

    Nope, you got them all. Now the Knicks have a chance to put the cherry on top of this team and sign either AK47 or Kenyon Martin to backup Stat. That would complete a title contending team.

  5. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    This is an uncharacteristically awesome move. Brewer’s got a career WP48 of 0.216. If he even comes close to returning to pre-’11 form, this could be the steal of free agency.

  6. Nick C.

    I like this move. Can he team with Kidd and take the guys that are too quick for Kidd to defend?

  7. massive

    Another good signing. At least our back court is loads better than last year’s opening day back court. He’s not what I would call a shooter, but we have Kidd and Smith to do that from the 1 and 2 spots.

  8. Juany8

    The Brewer signing is amazing, he’s basically a better version of Fields in every possible way unless Fields regains his shooting touch (which looked totally broken last year). He can also play the backup 3 and help guard some of the bigger SF names while Melo rests, which was a huge problem last year. The Knicks are now the only team in the league I can think of that has a full rotation of wings capable of matching up athletically and defensively with Lebron and Wade. The Knicks won’t have OKC’s problem of trying to guard Lebron with James Harden haha (seriously, Scott Brooks is a fucking terrible coach. Not sure why Woodson gets put down so much compared to someone like Brooks.)

  9. xcat01

    Nick, that will probably be the configuration at the end of games as Kidd doesn’t care about starting but cares about closing. Kidd and Brewer at the end of the game is a good match.

  10. Jafa

    “From what I’ve seen of JR so far he’s either red-hot or terrible game to game – very streaky.” – johnlock

    Do you think Kidd can reign in JR’s gunner tendencies? If he runs with the 2nd team, he could enhance JR’s shot selection by getting him the ball in better spots and force him to pass the ball if he does not have a good shot.

  11. jon abbey

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    This is an uncharacteristically awesome move. Brewer’s got a career WP48 of 0.216. If he even comes close to returning to pre-’11 form, this could be the steal of free agency.

    you liked Kidd and Camby a lot too, I thought?

  12. massive

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:
    This is an uncharacteristically awesome move. Brewer’s got a career WP48 of 0.216. If he even comes close to returning to pre-’11 form, this could be the steal of free agency.

    Still sticking with 48 wins?

  13. ephus

    I would be surprised if the Knicks filled the 15th slot, but I have been surprised by many things the Knicks have done. It would make sense to wait until further into the season, and see if you can bring in a Gadzuric-type at veteran’s minimum with non-guaranteed salary for next season. Knicks can also still do a Mike Bibby or Baron Davis sign and trade to bring back someone who has two (or more) guaranteed years left @ $1.8 million (or less)/year.

    I am happy that the Knicks were able to get Brewer for the veteran’s minimum, but if Brewer is the starting 2, the Knicks will have the same offensive flow issues that they had with Fields last year. Neither Felton nor Brewer commands defensive attention from distance. So opponents will feel free to sag off of them to help on ‘Melo isolations and to blitz the Felton/Chandler or Felton/STAT PnR.

  14. Juany8

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is an uncharacteristically awesome move. Brewer’s got a career WP48 of 0.216. If he even comes close to returning to pre-’11 form, this could be the steal of free agency.

    Although Ronnie Brewer was a complete steal, according to WP he was better than Rose the season Rose won the MVP. Pretty sure that means it’s safe to ignore what WP has to say about Brewer (Of course Landry Fields also being better than Rose that year means WP should probably be discounted entirely)

  15. Thomas B.

    I hope Amare can stay healthy this season. We look painfully thin at the 4.

    The Ronnie Brewer signing will really help those who miss Shumpert’s wonderful defense and horrible outside shooting. Brewer is .244 for his career from deep, yikes! Brewer makes Shumpert look like Steve novak.

    I think a Brewer/Felton backcourt is going to offer very little in the way of “see I told you so” to those of us in the we-don’t-need-Lin-camp.

  16. ruruland

    Juany8:
    The Brewer signing is amazing, he’s basically a better version of Fields in every possible way unless Fields regains his shooting touch (which looked totally broken last year). He can also play the backup 3 and help guard some of the bigger SF names while Melo rests, which was a huge problem last year. The Knicks are now the only team in the league I can think of that has a full rotation of wings capable of matching up athletically and defensively with Lebron and Wade. The Knicks won’t have OKC’s problem of trying to guard Lebron with James Harden haha (seriously, Scott Brooks is a fucking terrible coach. Not sure why Woodson gets put down so much compared to someone like Brooks.)

    Important post. The Knicks have 3 guys they can throw at Lebron and Wade.

    Shumpert and Brewer can defend them about as well as the Bulls can… Melo’s pretty good in that spot as well, but you can now move him to the 4 quite a bit against whoever, he can guard Bosh and whoever else they put there.

  17. Jafa

    Thomas B.:
    I hope Amare can stay healthy this season.We look painfully thin at the 4.

    The Ronnie Brewer signing will really help those who missShumpert’s wonderful defense and horrible outside shooting. Brewer is .244 for his career from deep, yikes!Brewer makes Shumpert look like Steve novak.

    I think a Brewer/Felton backcourt is going to offer very little in the way of “see I told you so” to those of us in the we-don’t-need-Lin-camp.

    Don’t hedge your bets Thomas B. You made your bed already. When its bed time, don’t go fixing up the couch.

  18. Z-man

    Thomas B.: I hope Amare can stay healthy this season. We look painfully thin at the 4. The Ronnie Brewer signing will really help those who miss Shumpert’s wonderful defense and horrible outside shooting. Brewer is .244 for his career from deep, yikes! Brewer makes Shumpert look like Steve novak.I think a Brewer/Felton backcourt is going to offer very little in the way of “see I told you so” to those of us in the we-don’t-need-Lin-camp.

    Camby, Melo and Thomas can provide 20 minutes a night at the 4, no? That said, agree that we should try to fill that spot, hopefully with KMart, but would be just as happy with another perimeter threat.

    Re: Lin, he of the .325 3pt% as a Knicks starter, .310 for his nba career, and .333 3pt% as a 4-year college player?

  19. ruruland

    Thomas B.:
    I hope Amare can stay healthy this season.We look painfully thin at the 4.

    The Ronnie Brewer signing will really help those who missShumpert’s wonderful defense and horrible outside shooting. Brewer is .244 for his career from deep, yikes!Brewer makes Shumpert look like Steve novak.

    I think a Brewer/Felton backcourt is going to offer very little in the way of “see I told you so” to those of us in the we-don’t-need-Lin-camp.

    Lin is no longer on the team. Not all posters should have to preface their points by reiterating their position on Lin. The vast majority of us understand the Knicks ceiling was higher with Lin.

    Brewer is flex guy who knows how to get open for easy baskets and he’s a great finisher.

    And unlike Fields, there is no misconception about his ability to shoot. He’s Fields with great defense– really incredible signing.

  20. Z-man

    Frank: LOL – you should read my posts where I did the math to see how much it would cost us to use the stretch provision. I’ll do it again for remediation:2012-13 –> $5M salary, ~8M luxury tax = $13M total2013-14 –> $5M salary, ~8.5M luxury tax = $13.5M total2014-15 –> WAIVED, $5M salary, ~9M luxury tax = $14M total2015-16 –> $5M salary, dead $ on cap while trying to sign Kevin Love + others2016-17 –> $5M salary, dead $ on capTotal = $50.5M for 2 seasons played, + 2 seasons of dead money on cap when we may need every dollar to refill this roster.Call me crazy, but $25M/year + 2 seasons of dead money seems like a reasonable reason to let him go for business reasons.Re: the Balkman contract — I honestly don’t remember what that was all about. We just waived him right? We’d have had to pay him whether on the team or not.

    Been saying this for a while, Frank, thought this was important to have in this thread…

  21. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: Although Ronnie Brewer was a complete steal, according to WP he was better than Rose the season Rose won the MVP. Pretty sure that means it’s safe to ignore what WP has to say about Brewer (Of course Landry Fields also being better than Rose that year means WP should probably be discounted entirely)

    I think it’s safe to confirm preexisting notions of player value whenever possible.

  22. Jafa

    Does anybody esle get the feeling the Knicks are looking more an more similar to the 2010-11 bulls? Take a look:

    - Defensive minded coach (Woodson/Thibbs)
    - Star player who will carry the scoring load (Melo/Rose)
    - Defensive minded center (Tyson/Noah)
    - Lots of size inside for defense and rebounding (Tyson, Camby, – Kurt Thomas/Noah, Asik, Kurt Thomas)
    - Defensive minded wing players (Shump, Brewer/Deng, Brewer, Bogans)
    - PF who is overpaid and supposed to be 2nd scoring option but probably does not deliver (Amare/Boozer)
    - 3PT shooting specialist off the bench (Novak/Korver)

    The similarities go on and on. If this is the case, I’ll gladly watch a 62 win season with Melo winning the MVP (Ruru would die from excitement) and Woodson winning COY (we would all die from shock) even if it ends at the hands of LeBron James in the ECF. Or maybe I’m reaching….

  23. ephus

    Balkman is $1.7 million of dead cap space this year. He was waived in order to create a roster space for JR Smith last year. No team was willing to take him in a trade, so he remains on the Knicks’ cap until his contract terminates at the end of this season.

  24. Z-man

    And as THCJ puts it, that $1.7 mill almost cost us Novak, etc. So why is it so hard to see that $5 million of dead cap space for 2 years wouldn’t have mattered much?

  25. Frank

    Jafa: Does anybody esle get the feeling the Knicks are looking more an more similar to the 2010-11 bulls?

    We have A LOT more offensive firepower on this team, whereas that team has a better defensive coach. And I still believe that Amare can be that 2nd guy on offense. Post-ASB he was basically the Amare of old – ~22pts/36, 60+ TS. And better defense.

  26. Brian Cronin

    Speaking of the Bulls, while I don’t like Dolan not matching on Lin, that’s nothing compared to how much the Bulls ownership is screwing their team due to luxury tax issues. They’re doing the same thing as the Knicks with Lin with Asik, but they also let go of Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and CJ Watson because of not wanting to pay luxury tax past the apron at all. Is Taj Gibson their only back-up 4/5?

    When a team like the Bulls does that right around the same time we’re talking about how much money NBA teams are going to make selling ads on their jerseys, it must piss their fans off mightily.

  27. DS

    Jafa: The similarities go on and on. If this is the case, I’ll gladly watch a 62 win season with Melo winning the MVP (Ruru would die from excitement) and Woodson winning COY (we would all die from shock) even if it ends at the hands of LeBron James in the ECF. Or maybe I’m reaching….

    Ha! You might be reaching there, buddy. But if they win 62, I heard it from you first…. AK47 or Carl Landry would be home runs but I doubt the Knicks have the $$ freed up to compete to sign them.

  28. ruruland

    Jafa:
    Does anybody esle get the feeling the Knicks are looking more an more similar to the 2010-11 bulls?Take a look:

    - Defensive minded coach (Woodson/Thibbs)
    - Star player who will carry the scoring load (Melo/Rose)
    - Defensive minded center (Tyson/Noah)
    - Lots of size inside for defense and rebounding (Tyson, Camby, – Kurt Thomas/Noah, Asik, Kurt Thomas)
    - Defensive minded wing players (Shump, Brewer/Deng, Brewer, Bogans)
    - PF who is overpaid and supposed to be 2nd scoring option but probably does not deliver (Amare/Boozer)
    - 3PT shooting specialist off the bench (Novak/Korver)

    The similarities go on and on.If this is the case, I’ll gladly watch a 62 win season with Melo winning the MVP (Ruru would die from excitement) and Woodson winning COY (we would all die from shock) even if it ends at the hands of LeBron James in the ECF.Or maybe I’m reaching….

    it’s a good comp. I don’t think the Knicks will play Bulls level defense for most of the year, as they won’t be quite as tough inside or as cohesive outside, but they’ll likely be better offensively.

    JR Smith is a more capable 3rd scorer than the Bulls can offer. And both Felton and Kidd give the Knicks a superior passing dimension when combined with Melo’s ability to create draw and kicks and inside/out.

  29. Jafa

    Frank: We have A LOT more offensive firepower on this team, whereas that team has a better defensive coach.And I still believe that Amare can be that 2nd guy on offense. Post-ASB he was basically the Amare of old – ~22pts/36, 60+ TS. And better defense.

    Hey Frank,

    I wasn’t making a bad comparison, just saying it looks similar. And who is our extra firepower? JR Smith is streaky, so you can’t count on his offense every night. Felton/Kidd will probably give you the same offense that Deng gave them that year. Apart from Amare being the opposite of Boozer offensively that year, who am I missing?

  30. Brian Cronin

    Oh, sorry, the Bulls signed Nazr Mohammed. So he’s their back-up 5. Pretty rough.

    Also, by using the Bi-Annual Exception to sign Marco Belinelli, the Bulls locked their cap at $74 million this year.

  31. ruruland

    Frank: We have A LOT more offensive firepower on this team, whereas that team has a better defensive coach.And I still believe that Amare can be that 2nd guy on offense. Post-ASB he was basically the Amare of old – ~22pts/36, 60+ TS. And better defense.

    I think there is little doubt. When you throw in the kind of off-season he’s having with the addition of Felton, I think you’ll see a return to the 600 on 20+ppg.

  32. DS

    Brian Cronin:
    Oh, sorry, the Bulls signed Nazr Mohammed. So he’s their back-up 5. Pretty rough.

    Also, by using the Bi-Annual Exception to signMarco Belinelli, the Bulls locked their cap at $74 million this year.

    They signed Hinrich too… and not that he’s worth mentioning but Vladimir Radmanovic as well.

  33. ruruland

    Brian Cronin:
    Oh, sorry, the Bulls signed Nazr Mohammed. So he’s their back-up 5. Pretty rough.

    Also, by using the Bi-Annual Exception to signMarco Belinelli, the Bulls locked their cap at $74 million this year.

    They’re no longer a top 4 seed, IMO. At least not with Rose’s issues.

    Look, a team that maximizes its talent, if it loses momentum I think you’ll likely see lower energy output overall the following year.

    I see the Bulls having a hard time winning 50 this season.

    The Knicks will be fighting off Boston and Brooklyn for the second seed in the East. Though I believe with the BRewer signing the Knicks are in play for home court again THIS YEAR.

  34. ruruland

    Jafa: Hey Frank,

    I wasn’t making a bad comparison, just saying it looks similar.And who is our extra firepower?JR Smith is streaky, so you can’t count on his offense every night.Felton/Kidd will probably give you the same offense that Deng gave them that year.Apart from Amare being the opposite of Boozer offensively that year, who am I missing?

    JR Smith is streaky, but most third scorers are. Look, when Smith is put off the ball he’s devastating. He was the third option on a conference championship team.

    He’s widely acknowledged as real firepower, a guy who can get you 20+ pts on a pretty consistent basis.

    Melo/Amare with JR/Felton as guys who can give you 20+ any night. A lot of efficient scoring everywhere else.

    More firepower than Dallas had a couple years back.

  35. ephus

    If Rose comes back strong in January, the Bulls are a top 4 team. If he does not return until March (current rumor), the Bulls are fighting for a playoff spot. And if Thibodeau can make that roster into an elite defensive unit, his scheme should be adopted by every NBA team.

  36. Z-man

    So, last year’s roster 1-14:

    Amare
    Melo
    Chandler
    Fields
    Lin
    Novak
    JR
    Shump
    Jeffries
    Jorts
    Baron
    Bibby
    Jordan
    TD

    This years roster 1-14

    Amare
    Melo
    Chandler
    Felton
    JR
    Kidd
    Camby
    Novak
    Shump
    Brewer
    Prigioni
    White
    Copeland

    So, we’ve replaced:

    Felton with Lin (probably a wash, downgrade on O, upgrade on D)
    Baron with Kidd (probable upgrade)
    Jeffries with Camby (probable upgrade)
    Fields with Brewer (probable upgrade on D, a wash on O)
    Jorts with Copeland (probable wash)
    Bibby with Prigioni (probable upgrade)
    Jordan with Thomas (probable wash)
    TD with White (probable upgrade)

    All without adding any contracts guaranteed beyond 2015 (except maybe $4 mill for Felton?)

    Fantastic job, Grunwald!

  37. Thomas B.

    Thomas B.:
    I hope Amare can stay healthy this season.We look painfully thin at the 4.

    The Ronnie Brewer signing will really help those who missShumpert’s wonderful defense and horrible outside shooting. Brewer is .244 for his career from deep, yikes!Brewer makes Shumpert look like Steve novak.

    I think a Brewer/Felton backcourt is going to offer very little in the way of “see I told you so” to those of us in the we-don’t-need-Lin-camp.

    No not hedging at all. Just acknowledging that one thing Lin did well was put the ball in the bucket. Brewer and Felton aren’t going to outshine Lin on offense. I understand that will be an are in which this backcourt may not exceed the Lin/TBD pairing. But I am prety sure neither of the guys score as well as Lin, that’s all.

  38. Jafa

    By the start of the 2014-2015 season,

    Replacing Lin with Felton (probably a downgrade)
    Replacing Baron with Kidd (probably a wash)
    Replacing Jefferies with Camby (probably a wash)
    Replacing Fields with Brewer (probably a downgrade)
    Replacing Jorts with Copeland (probably a wash)
    Replacing Bibby with Prigioni (probably a wash)
    Replacing Jordan with Thomas (probably a downgrade)
    Replacing TD with White (probably a wash)

    So by that season, that’s 3 probable downgrades and 5 washes (vs. 5 upgrades and 3 washes as per Z-man). We better hit a home run on our 2013 1st round pick and get solid production from our next 2 tax-payers MLEs.

    Grunwald, you have your work cut out for you.

  39. Thomas B.

    Z-man: Camby, Melo and Thomas can provide 20 minutes a night at the 4, no? That said, agree that we should try to fill that spot, hopefully with KMart, but would be just as happy with another perimeter threat.

    Re: Lin, he of the .325 3pt% as a Knicks starter, .310 for his nba career, and .333 3pt% as a 4-year college player?

    Bad as that is, it is way better than Brewer. Apples and Oranges I know but yikes is he a terrible shooter from deep. I hate to be the nattering naybob of the post, but does not the horrid three point shooting worry anyone? Brewer is like the anti-Joe Johnson. How will he be used in the Woodson offense? Will he be expected the keep the defense honest without a deep threat? Do you folks not mind that huge hole in his game?

    I mean the guy is the projected starter at shooting guard and he can’t do half of his job description. Hey maybe with this front court you won’t need much from the 1 and 2. Hey hopefully it will work out. I’m just not ready to go nuts over the signing until I see how it all fits together.

  40. ephus

    Z-man: Lin with Felton (probably a wash, downgrade on O, upgrade on D)
    Baron with Kidd (probable upgrade)
    Jeffries with Camby (probable upgrade)
    Fields with Brewer (probable upgrade on D, a wash on O)
    Jorts with Copeland (probable wash)
    Bibby with Prigioni (probable upgrade)
    Jordan with Thomas (probable wash)
    TD with White (probable upgrade)
    All without adding any contracts guaranteed beyond 2015 (except maybe $4 mill for Felton?)
    Fantastic job, Grunwald!

    If Lin for Felton is a wash, then the Knicks have had a spectacular off-season. Unfortunately, I I do not think that Felton will be able to run the PnR as effectively as Lin, so I expect a substantial downgrade on offense and a wash (at best) on defense.

    The back-of-the-roster moves matter much less than the changes in the rotation. IMO, Shumpert’s recovery from his injury is the biggest wildcard for this team. If he can come back and produce at the level he played as a SG, this team still should be favored to win its first round playoff series. If Brewer has to play all of Shumpert’s minutes, I am much less optimistic.

  41. DRed

    jon abbey: you liked Kidd and Camby a lot too, I thought?

    Kidd and Camby were both very productive last year and are significant upgrades over the players they’re replacing. The problem with them is that they’re at an age where a rapid decline can occur, basically, at any moment, so it’s not a smart move to rely on them to be productive next year. They’re also significant more likely to be injured.

  42. Z-man

    Agree for the most part, but honestly, did you think it was possible to replace 8 players and upgrade 5 positions after the Heat bounced us in May? For an “over-the-tax threshold, win now” team, pretty impressive.

    I disagree that Fields will be better than Brewer in year 2, but it is possible.

    Also, Thomas, Prigioni, Copeland and White can be cut and replaced. Kidd, Camby and Felton’s contracts are not complete albatrosses that can’t be moved by slick GMing by then.

  43. Z-man

    Thomas B.: I mean the guy is the projected starter at shooting guard and he can’t do half of his job description. Hey maybe with this front court you won’t need much from the 1 and 2. Hey hopefully it will work out. I’m just not ready to go nuts over the signing until I see how it all fits together.

    Not necessarily, JR may still start, with Brewer playing alongside Novak, Kidd, Camby and one of Amare, Melo, or Thomas, all good shooters.

    Is Extra E still available? He might be a good 15th guy.

  44. chrisk06811

    I like the 2nd team. Pass 1st PG dishing to Smith and Novak, with strong interior D (Camby / Thomas). We no longer have to settle for either O or D on the 2nd unit.

    The thing I really love (until he gets hurt) is Camby. So, when Stat or Chandler get 2 early fouls, somebody can guard the rim.

    I also like that we seem to have a team where everyone has an established role…as long as Felton / Kidd are cool sharing PG.

    Finally, I’m looking forward to a healthy Amare, with a lot less pressure on him. I’m hoping much better than last year, but understandably not as good as the yr before.

  45. Z-man

    DRed: Kidd and Camby were both very productive last year and are significant upgrades over the players they’re replacing. The problem with them is that they’re at an age where a rapid decline can occur, basically, at any moment, so it’s not a smart move to rely on them to be productive next year. They’re also significant more likely to be injured.

    True, but neither will have to play big minutes or would be a critical loss. Camby is probably more vital, but he and Thomas should have 10-15 healthy minutes in them at a minimum. And if they both DO stay heathy, they will be very, very helpful in keeping Chandler and Amare fresh. Again, there were not a lot of better options up front at that price, so considering that, Grunwald did well.

  46. ruruland

    ephus: If Lin for Felton is a wash, then the Knicks have had a spectacular off-season.Unfortunately, I I do not think that Felton will be able to run the PnR as effectively as Lin, so I expect a substantial downgrade on offense and a wash (at best) on defense.

    The back-of-the-roster moves matter much less than the changes in the rotation.IMO, Shumpert’s recovery from his injury is the biggest wildcard for this team.If he can come back and produce at the level he played as a SG, this team still should be favored to win its first round playoff series.If Brewer has to play all of Shumpert’s minutes, I am much less optimistic.

    Why? Brewer’s three year defensive numbers are special. And I had the wrong initial impression. The guy is just about as close to an elite wing defender as you can get — he’s more effective than Deng, and in two of the last three years his Synergy numbers are better than Iggy’s….

    Obviously he was more impressive than Shumpert last season as well.

  47. Jafa

    Thomas B.: Bad as that is, it is way better than Brewer. Apples and Oranges I know but yikes is he a terrible shooter from deep.I hate to be the nattering naybob of the post, but does not the horrid three point shooting worry anyone?Brewer is like the anti-Joe Johnson.How will he be used in the Woodson offense?Will he be expected the keep the defense honest without a deep threat?Do you folks not mind that huge whole in his game?

    I mean the guy is the projected starter at shooting guard and he can’t do half of his job description.Hey maybe with this front court you won’t need much from the 1 and 2.Hey hopefully it will work out.I’m just not ready to go nuts over the signing until I see how it all fits together.

    First of all Thomas B., you are parsing a guy who was signed for the veteran’s minimum. At that price, we expect you to bring just one NBA skill to the table, and he does that (defense). If he could shoot it well from deep as well, he would be worth well more than the veteran’s minimum.

    Secondly, we have Novak (who shot 47% taking 5 a game last year), Kidd (who shot 35% shooting almost 5 a game last year), Felton (who shot 46% taking 3 a game during his stint with Denver) and JR (who shot 35% taking almost 6 a game last year).

    If we get JR to cut his 3PA from 6 to 3 a game (maybe Kidd cant limit his attempts), get Kidd to decrease from 5 to 3 a game (playing 20 mins a night should do it right?) and get Novak to increase his from 5 to 8 a game (I have no idea how to achieve this but it needs to happen), we may solve our 3PT% problem.

    Feel better?

  48. Frank

    We really would be so much better off starting this lineup:

    Tyson
    Melo
    Novak
    Brewer
    Felton

    with Camby/Amare/someone/JR/Kidd as 2nd unit.

    Man this team is deep now.

  49. johnlocke

    I don’t think Lin ever really got comfortable with Amare’s slipping/hedging picks on the PnR, he was always more comfortable with Chandler. On PnRs with Amare, he would more often shoot or pass to a wing, than get the ball to Amare. Felton, based on past history, may end up being a better PnR player for Amare.

    ephus: If Lin for Felton is a wash, then the Knicks have had a spectacular off-season.Unfortunately, I I do not think that Felton will be able to run the PnR as effectively as Lin, so I expect a substantial downgrade on offense and a wash (at best) on defense.

    The back-of-the-roster moves matter much less than the changes in the rotation.IMO, Shumpert’s recovery from his injury is the biggest wildcard for this team.If he can come back and produce at the level he played as a SG, this team still should be favored to win its first round playoff series.If Brewer has to play all of Shumpert’s minutes, I am much less optimistic.

  50. Bruno Almeida

    man, that’s a fantastic signing, thank god… now we basically have 2 “Shumperts”, 2 excellent defensive wings who we can throw at the Wades, Kobes, even LeBrons of the league.

    I couldn’t care less that he can’t hit 3-pointers, he’s actually a pretty underrated slasher and can finish pretty well when he gets the chance… we have enough 3 point shooters with Novak, Smith, Melo, Kidd and even Felton has had some decent years shooting the 3, so that’s ok.

    this team would still be better with Lin in my opinion, but this is a very rootable team, and could potentially be a scary team if everything goes right.

    naturally, since I assume the dream scenario to always be wrong, unlike some posters here, we’ll still be not much better than the NY Hawks, but this team will be more watchable than the Knicks have been for the past 12 years, and that’s ok for me.

  51. Caleb

    Z-man:
    And as THCJ puts it, that $1.7 mill almost cost us Novak, etc. So why is it so hard to see that $5 million of dead cap space for 2 years wouldn’t have mattered much?

    More likely we would have just bitten the bullet and spent a lot of money on Lin that one year, while paying a reasonable salary all the years before and after. And we could have offset more than half the cost by not signing Kidd & Felton. And if we think Lin costs a lot that year, Amare and Melo will each cost around $100 million that one single year, depending how the tax goes. 40-year-old JKidd will cost us $12 million. But I digress….

    Brewer’s a great signing. At least we can all agree on something! That was the one spot that really needed shoring up, and that’s how you fill out a team.

    I’m not worried about the 4, at all – Melo and Amare have it nailed down. If either gets hurt, the other can play most of the minutes with Camby and Novak filling in.

    Someone mentioned Woodson as a defensive coach, which isn’t really true – he just likes a slow pace. His Atlanta teams were all better on offense than defense.Abbey is right that we will be one of the ugliest teams to watch, but we’ll be very good.

    Biggest short-term danger is Felton hogging the ball – on his last go-round he routinely did a Kobe Bryant impression and took more shots than Stoudemire or Gallinari, our key guys at the time. Hopefully Woody can put a lid on that – having serviceable backups (we think) in Kidd and Prigioni might be enough leverage to keep Felton honest.

  52. ruruland

    ephus: If Lin for Felton is a wash, then the Knicks have had a spectacular off-season.Unfortunately, I I do not think that Felton will be able to run the PnR as effectively as Lin, so I expect a substantial downgrade on offense and a wash (at best) on defense.

    The back-of-the-roster moves matter much less than the changes in the rotation.IMO, Shumpert’s recovery from his injury is the biggest wildcard for this team.If he can come back and produce at the level he played as a SG, this team still should be favored to win its first round playoff series.If Brewer has to play all of Shumpert’s minutes, I am much less optimistic.

    I think it’s pretty clear that Felton is a better pnr passer than LIN.

    Lin has a tendency to wait too long and penetrate too deep. Go back and watch Amar’e pnr catches with Felton — great timing when Amar’e slips screen.

    Obviously Felton is not the finisher that Lin is, nor will he ever be able to get to the line at the same rate (as I see Lin’s fta/36 increasing moving forward)….

    I think there’s a good chance that Felton improves his teammates more than Lin did last year — though I think Lin could have developed into an elite distributor here, he may not have been receptive to that role.

    A couple more wins last year and the Knicks could have made the second round. It would be shocking if they finished below the 4th seed and or lost in the first round.

  53. Z-man

    ephus: If Lin for Felton is a wash, then the Knicks have had a spectacular off-season. Unfortunately, I I do not think that Felton will be able to run the PnR as effectively as Lin, so I expect a substantial downgrade on offense and a wash (at best) on defense.

    While there are ample reasons to conjecture that Lin will be better on O than Felton (getting to the FT line, finishing are two), running the p&r should bot be one of them. Felton and Amare were running it so well for two solid months that Amare was playing at an elite level and Felton was being given all-star consideration.

    On defense, I would seriously doubt thet they will be a wash.

    We’ll see.

  54. ruruland

    Caleb:

    Biggest short-term danger is Felton hogging the ball – on his last go-round he routinely did a Kobe Bryant impression and took more shots than Stoudemire or Gallinari, our key guys at the time. Hopefully Woody can put a lid on that – having serviceable backups (we think) in Kidd and Prigioni might be enough leverage to keep Felton honest.

    Well, consider that he was the only guy who could really create his shot on that team. IN MDA’s offense the pg is basically asked to make every play.

  55. ruruland

    Z-man: While there are ample reasons to conjecture that Lin will be better on O than Felton (getting to the FT line, finishing are two), running the p&r should bot be one of them. Felton and Amare were running it so well for two solid months that Amare was playing at an elite level and Felton was being given all-star consideration.

    On defense, I would seriously doubt thet they will be a wash.

    We’ll see.

    On good defensive teams, Felton has been very good defensively,

  56. Caleb

    I like Felton’s D, and most of his coaches do, but I don’t think he’s a big difference-maker. Lin was ok – lot of steals and ball-hawking but also a lot of rookie mistakes. Brewer is big – along with JR we can defend wings pretty consistently. But Basically if Chandler stays healthy, we’ll have a really good defense, and if he goes down, not so much. Although Camby is a better backstop than we’ve had in the past.

  57. dogrufus

    This is such a good signing that if we hadn’t completely raped and destroyed our offseason with Dolan’s big fuckup, I’d be really excited about this roster and think it had a chance to win 65.

  58. Jafa

    “It would be shocking if they finished below the 4th seed and or lost in the first round.” – ruruland

    It would NOT be shocking if we finished below the 4th seed. As far as I’m concerned the top 2 seeds in the East are already accounted for (Miami and Boston). The next 2 seeds have 3 teams competing for them (New York, Indiana and Brooklyn). If the Celtics win the Atlantic, then automatically one of those seeds will go to Indiana (assuming they win the Central). That leaves just one top 4 seed for New York and Brooklyn to fight over. So not shocking as it is a possibility.

    Now, losing in the first round would be shocking.

  59. ruruland

    Caleb, Felton’s shots per 36 were much higher in NY than they’ve been elsewhere.

    Felton is normally in the Andre Miller/Ty Lawson range.

  60. Frank

    Not having our PGs turning the ball over 5 times/36 will help both our offense and defense mightily also. Both our main PGs last year (Baron/Lin) averaged about 5 per 36!

    I think an in-shape Felton probably has a lot more on-ball defensive skill than Lin. Lin is really good at getting steals on quick doubles/traps, and is also a really good rebounder for a PG. But in terms of actual man and team defense, Felton is superior at this stage of Lin’s career.

  61. ruruland

    Jafa:
    “It would be shocking if they finished below the 4th seed and or lost in the first round.” – ruruland

    It would NOT be shocking if we finished below the 4th seed.As far as I’m concerned the top 2 seeds in the East are already accounted for (Miami and Boston).The next 2 seeds have 3 teams competing for them (New York, Indiana and Brooklyn).If the Celtics win the Atlantic, then automatically one of those seeds will go to Indiana (assuming they win the Central).That leaves just one top 4 seed for New York and Brooklyn to fight over.So not shocking as it is a possibility.

    Now, losing in the first round would be shocking.

    I don’t see any reason to think Boston is head and shoulders better than NY — not by any stretch.

    We beat that team twice last season, and could have won both games in Boston.

    In fact, the Knicks SRS (and of course expected wins) was higher than Boston’s last year..

    I’d argue that the Knicks had a better off-season (Terry is less effective than Allen, and Stiemsma was excellent for them)

    Moreover, Garnett showed real signs of decline throughout the regular season, and Pierce showed it in the post-season…
    They rely on their old guys. The Knicks, less so.

  62. johnlocke

    My assessment on regular season record based on roster breakdown is that Miami is definitely better than us, Boston is slightly better, Indiana is even money and we’re definitely better than Brooklyn. In the playoffs, there is no team we couldn’t beat in a 7 game series in the East, not named the Miami Heat.

    Jafa:
    “It would be shocking if they finished below the 4th seed and or lost in the first round.” – ruruland

    It would NOT be shocking if we finished below the 4th seed.As far as I’m concerned the top 2 seeds in the East are already accounted for (Miami and Boston).The next 2 seeds have 3 teams competing for them (New York, Indiana and Brooklyn).If the Celtics win the Atlantic, then automatically one of those seeds will go to Indiana (assuming they win the Central).That leaves just one top 4 seed for New York and Brooklyn to fight over.So not shocking as it is a possibility.

    Now, losing in the first round would be shocking.

  63. Frank

    Jafa:
    “It would be shocking if they finished below the 4th seed and or lost in the first round.” – ruruland

    It would NOT be shocking if we finished below the 4th seed.As far as I’m concerned the top 2 seeds in the East are already accounted for (Miami and Boston).The next 2 seeds have 3 teams competing for them (New York, Indiana and Brooklyn).If the Celtics win the Atlantic, then automatically one of those seeds will go to Indiana (assuming they win the Central).That leaves just one top 4 seed for New York and Brooklyn to fight over.

    Call me crazy but I’m not really sure why everyone thinks Brooklyn is going to be so good. This is the same team as last year, minus players like Anthony Morrow, and plus Joe Johnson. Is Joe Johnson the difference between a 27-win team and a 54-win team? They still have zero in the way of a real inside defensive presence, unless you count Reggie Evans (I don’t). We all know how horrible Lopez is on D and on the boards. Hump is pretty good, but not really someone you can count on to guard the Amares or Boshes of the world. And forget it – if the Knicks went small and played Melo at the 4? It would roasted Hump for dinner. I just don’t see how the Nets will be able to get stops consistently. I think it’s much more likely that Brooklyn becomes Atlanta North, not us.

    I think Miami is the clear-cut #1 seed. I think we have a good chance of winning the Atlantic — maybe not 50/50 but not so far off either — remember, the Celts are 10000% reliant on the fact that KG can play big minutes and stay healthy – NOT a given. He has played >50K minutes in his career! On top of that, they really don’t try that hard in the regular season. Indiana will get homecourt, but I put us as a heavy favorite over BKN even if we don’t win the Atlantic.

  64. ephus

    I rate Lin as a better PnR player than Felton because Lin has more ability to finish the play on a penetration or step-back jumper. With Felton, you are going to see lots of teams go under the screen and dare him to shoot the long jumper.

  65. Juany8

    Jafa: “It would be shocking if they finished below the 4th seed and or lost in the first round.” – rurulandIt would NOT be shocking if we finished below the 4th seed. As far as I’m concerned the top 2 seeds in the East are already accounted for (Miami and Boston). The next 2 seeds have 3 teams competing for them (New York, Indiana and Brooklyn). If the Celtics win the Atlantic, then automatically one of those seeds will go to Indiana (assuming they win the Central). That leaves just one top 4 seed for New York and Brooklyn to fight over. So not shocking as it is a possibility.Now, losing in the first round would be shocking.

    If the Knicks are as injured as they were last year (Chandler was terrible due to the flu the first 2 games, no Lin, Amar’e missed half the series, Baron and Shump went down with season ending injuries… Mike Bibby was starting game 5) then losing a first round series is very possible. Chicago lost to the Sixers last year didn’t they?

  66. ruruland

    ephus:
    I rate Lin as a better PnR player than Felton because Lin has more ability to finish the play on a penetration or step-back jumper.With Felton, you are going to see lots of teams go under the screen and dare him to shoot the long jumper.

    Lin was a great pnr scorer last year. But, he was not a great pnr passer. Synergy does not include passing numbers. I think given Felton’s passing advantage they’d be roughly even..

    Felton’s been a solid spot-up player while Lin was poor last season. The biggest differences will be transition scoring and isolation scoring.

  67. Z-man

    I’m not so high on Indiana. We beat them back to back last year and they needed a 40+ point 4th Q to beat us in the last game. Hibbert moves like a 50 year old and just got a max contract. Who is their starting PG now?

  68. ruruland

    Frank: Call me crazy but I’m not really sure why everyone thinks Brooklyn is going to be so good. This is the same team as last year, minus players like Anthony Morrow, and plus Joe Johnson. Is Joe Johnson the difference between a 27-win team and a 54-win team? They still have zero in the way of a real inside defensive presence, unless you count Reggie Evans (I don’t).We all know how horrible Lopez is on D and on the boards. Hump is pretty good, but not really someone you can count on to guard the Amares or Boshes of the world.And forget it – if the Knicks went small and played Melo at the 4?It would roasted Hump for dinner.I just don’t see how the Nets will be able to get stops consistently.I think it’s much more likely that Brooklyn becomes Atlanta North, not us.

    I think Miami is the clear-cut #1 seed.I think we have a good chance of winning the Atlantic — maybe not 50/50 but not so far off either — remember, the Celts are 10000% reliant on the fact that KG can play big minutes and stay healthy – NOT a given. He has played >50K minutes in his career! On top of that, they really don’t try that hard in the regular season.Indiana will get homecourt, but I put us as a heavy favorite over BKN even if we don’t win the Atlantic.

    Nets will finish with high 40s wins next year, IMO. I think Williams will finally be motivated to play, and they should be solid offensively and poor defensively.

  69. Juany8

    johnlocke: My assessment on regular season record based on roster breakdown is that Miami is definitely better than us, Boston is slightly better, Indiana is even money and we’re definitely better than Brooklyn. In the playoffs, there is no team we couldn’t beat in a 7 game series in the East, not named the Miami Heat.

    If Miami went small like they did against the Thunder, a Felton/Kidd-Shump-JR-Melo-Chandler lineup would match up with Miami offensively and defensively better than perhaps any in the league. That’s 4 people capable of shooting effectively enough to be guarded, and all of them are capable of handling the ball and running a fast break. Chandler will make this lineup elite defensively while everyone else will be fast enough to cover shooters. Most importantly, they don’t have a player that one of Lebron/Wade/Bosh can straight up exploit.

    Sadly, this lineup’s biggest problem is that Amar’e isn’t in it. He and Chandler won’t be able to play together if the Heat decide to keep their small lineup permanently

  70. ruruland

    Frank, let’s also remember that Miami has a tendency to coast in the regular season a bit, and they’re coming off a title and two long playoff runs. Boston coasts every year and it will only get worse as they age.

    It’s teams like New York that typically overachieve a bit in the regular season, at least relative to playoff competition.

  71. dogrufus

    Frank:
    Not having our PGs turning the ball over 5 times/36 will help both our offense and defense mightily also. Both our main PGs last year (Baron/Lin) averaged about 5 per 36.

    Yeah, and not having a PG that has ANY ability to get to the basket should do wonders for us as well.

    Nothing good every happens when your primary ballhandlers can beat their defenders and be a threat to finish in traffic at the rim. It’s so great we rid ourselves of that terrible burden, and got ourselves a great playmaker more like an overweight Howard Eisley.

  72. Z-man

    ephus: I rate Lin as a better PnR player than Felton because Lin has more ability to finish the play on a penetration or step-back jumper. With Felton, you are going to see lots of teams go under the screen and dare him to shoot the long jumper.

    After the first half of Linsanity was over, he shot 40% from the field and had never shot above .325 % from 3. What makes you so sure that people won’t go under the screen with him, especially now that they will surely force him to finish to his left and not bail him out with fouls like they were early on?

    We’ll see…

  73. d-mar

    If anyone doubts there is an anti-NY bias in the sports media, Chad Ford gave the Knicks a C- for off season moves. The only teams worse was the Magic with an F.

  74. ruruland

    Z-man:
    I’m not so high on Indiana. We beat them back to back last year and they needed a 40+ point 4th Q to beat us in the last game. Hibbert moves like a 50 year old and just got a max contract. Who is their starting PG now?

    Agreed. Knicks, IMO, are clearly better than Indiana.

  75. yellowboy90

    Someone should take Ronnie Brewer to see Tom House or another swing specialist who can analyze his shooting motion and refine his shot based on his elbow injury.

  76. Frank

    btw, here is the most hilarious article to come out of Wages of Wins in a while. You gotta love how they try to explain away why D-Will was bad last year (and not great the year before), while not acknowledging that for most of the year, Melo was passing to 2 of the worst shooters in the entire NBA.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/19/are-the-nets-better-than-the-knicks/

    It’s almost as if they are admitting that your teammates matter! well, at least when one of their pet players’ results don’t conform to their worldview.

  77. Caleb

    ruruland: I don’t see any reason to think Boston is head and shoulders better than NY — not by any stretch.

    We beat that team twice last season, and could have won both games in Boston.

    In fact, the Knicks SRS (and of course expected wins) was higher than Boston’s last year..

    I’d argue that the Knicks had a better off-season (Terry is less effective than Allen, and Stiemsma was excellent for them)

    Moreover, Garnett showed real signs of decline throughout the regular season, and Pierce showed it in the post-season…
    They rely on their old guys. The Knicks, less so.

    Miami is in a class of its own, in the east.

    Chicago will have a much rougher ride in the regular season, but if Rose is healthy by the playoffs – big IF – they’re still #2, IMO. Beatable, but #2. They’ve relied a lot on depth the past few years but that’s less important in the playoffs.

    I think Boston had a great offseason, but I don’t think they’re better than the Knicks, and they are definitely more fragile, relying so much on old guys. They did help themselves by getting a lot deeper. If Jeff Green comes back strong and Bradley comes back healthy and Garnett/Pierce stay durable then yeah, they could win 55. But that’s a lot of IFs.

    Jersey will be winning in the 40s somewhere, and they could miss the playoffs with a few well-timed injuries. I don’t see any real upside, unless you think Brook Lopez is turning into an All-Star.

    For the regular season, I could see Indy, New York, Boston, Chicago or even Atlanta making a run at the #2 seed.

    Of course Dwight Howard could shake things up. If he gets traded to the Hawks or the Nets, watch out. And if he somehow stays in Orlando and gets re-motivated, they could be a top-4 seed.

    Philly took a step back but I’d still give them the edge over Toronto and Milwaukee for final playoff spots.

  78. ephus

    Until Shumpert gets back, I think the rotation will look like this:

    PG: Felton (28 minutes)/Kidd (20 minutes)/Prigioni (spot minutes)
    SG: Brewer (24 minutes)/Smith (24 minutes)
    SF: ‘Melo (28 minutes)/Novak (14 minutes)/Smith (6 minutes)
    PF: STAT (30 minutes)/Thomas (10 minutes)/’Melo (8 minutes)
    C: Chandler (30 minutes)/Camby (12 minutes)/STAT (6 minutes)

    White and Copeland will get time only in case of foul trouble, injury or garbage time.

    When Kidd and Smith are on the floor together, particularly against quick PGs, I think you may see Kidd play the 2 defensively.

  79. ruruland

    dogrufus: Yeah, and not having a PG that has ANY ability to get to the basket should do wonders for us as well.

    Nothing good every happens when your primary ballhandlers can beat their defenders and be a threat to finish in traffic at the rim.It’s so great we rid ourselves of that terrible burden, and got ourselves a great playmaker more like an overweight Howard Eisley.

    Felton isn’t overweight, and he’s a decent penetrator, especially in pnr. Secondly, Felton’as assists per 36 were higher in MDA’s offense than Lin’s. (8.5 vs 8.3)

  80. Z-man

    dogrufus: Yeah, and not having a PG that has ANY ability to get to the basket should do wonders for us as well.Nothing good every happens when your primary ballhandlers can beat their defenders and be a threat to finish in traffic at the rim. It’s so great we rid ourselves of that terrible burden, and got ourselves a great playmaker more like an overweight Howard Eisley.

    So, what do you attribute Felton’s 25-game stretch of all-star level basketball in his first go-around with the Knicks? Go back into the KB archives and read the posts from then. Because it was inconsistent with his career #s? Wasn’t Lin’s play for a dozen games inconsistent with his prior numbers (oh, that’s right, he didn’t have any prior career), and didn’t they tail off dramatically?

  81. ABG

    I think this team is going to win 55+ games with what they’ve built–an excellent defensive team with two very good scorers. I think they will wear lesser teams down defensively, similar to how they did in the 90s and how the Bulls have done over the last couple years.

    I’m not that confident in them going very far in the playoffs, however, because that strategy falls short against elite offensive competition (just as happened to the Bulls in 10, and us throughout the 90s).

  82. ABG

    ephus:
    Until Shumpert gets back, I think the rotation will look like this:

    PG: Felton (28 minutes)/Kidd (20 minutes)/Prigioni (spot minutes)
    SG: Brewer (24 minutes)/Smith (24 minutes)
    SF:‘Melo (28 minutes)/Novak (14 minutes)/Smith (6 minutes)
    PF: STAT (30 minutes)/Thomas (10 minutes)/’Melo (8 minutes)
    C:Chandler (30 minutes)/Camby (12 minutes)/STAT (6 minutes)

    White and Copeland will get time only in case of foul trouble, injury or garbage time.

    When Kidd and Smith are on the floor together, particularly against quick PGs, I think you may see Kidd play the 2 defensively.

    I think you’ll see Camby get a full 20 minutes by dropping Chandler to 28, and Stat to 32. And I’d support that fully.

  83. ephus

    Z-man: After the first half of Linsanity was over, he shot 40% from the field and had never shot above .325 % from 3. What makes you so sure that people won’t go under the screen with him, especially now that they will surely force him to finish to his left and not bail him out with fouls like they were early on?

    We’ll see…

    First of all “we’ll see” is clearly correct. My predictions about the future are WAGs, like everyone else’s.

    Having said that, I expect that teams will hedge and double against Lin, rather than go under the screen, because he is so much more effective when he can turn the corner against the big man and get up a head of steam. Felton is not the same sort of penetration threat, so he is less likely to get the defense to commit a third man against the PnR.

  84. ruruland

    Frank:
    btw, here is the most hilarious article to come out of Wages of Wins in a while. You gotta love how they try to explain away why D-Will was bad last year (and not great the year before), while not acknowledging that for most of the year, Melo was passing to 2 of the worst shooters in the entire NBA.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/19/are-the-nets-better-than-the-knicks/

    It’s almost as if they are admitting that your teammates matter! well, at least when one of their pet players’ results don’t conform to their worldview.

    bookmarked

  85. Frank

    dogrufus: Yeah, and not having a PG that has ANY ability to get to the basket should do wonders for us as well.

    Nothing good every happens when your primary ballhandlers can beat their defenders and be a threat to finish in traffic at the rim.It’s so great we rid ourselves of that terrible burden, and got ourselves a great playmaker more like an overweight Howard Eisley.

    I know your main goal is to troll this board – but remember, we had an offensive efficiency of 107.6 in April last year when we had Baron Davis and his gimpy back manning the point. And we were much worse than that (100.7) when Lin was running the point.

    Oh, and by the way, no one has ever accused Felton of not being quick with the ball in his hands. He is undeniably one of the fastest AND quickest guys in the league when in shape. Obviously the “when in shape” is a big caveat. He doesn’t finish as well as Lin in the lane and he doesn’t draw contact as well, but he has averaged about 7-8 assists per game in his career (with a relatively low TO-R) so it’s not like he’s a slouch when it comes to passing the ball.

  86. ruruland

    Caleb: Miami is in a class of its own, in the east.

    Chicago will have a much rougher ride in the regular season, but if Rose is healthy by the playoffs – big IF – they’re still #2, IMO. Beatable, but #2. They’ve relied a lot on depth the past few years but that’s less important in the playoffs.

    I think Boston had a great offseason, but I don’t think they’re better than the Knicks, and they are definitely more fragile, relying so much on old guys. They did help themselves by getting a lot deeper.If Jeff Green comes back strong and Bradley comes back healthy and Garnett/Pierce stay durable then yeah, they could win 55. But that’s a lot of IFs.

    Jersey will be winning in the 40s somewhere, and they could miss the playoffs with a few well-timed injuries. I don’t see any real upside, unless you think Brook Lopez is turning into an All-Star.

    For the regular season, I could see Indy, New York, Boston, Chicago or even Atlanta making a run at the #2 seed.

    Of course Dwight Howard could shake things up. If he gets traded to the Hawks or the Nets, watch out. And if he somehow stays in Orlando and gets re-motivated, they could be a top-4 seed.

    Philly took a step back but I’d still give them the edge over Toronto and Milwaukee for final playoff spots.

    You think Boston had a great off-season? Green and Terry are solid, Lee is ok, but look at what they lost. I don’t think they’re better than last season.

  87. Juany8

    Frank: btw, here is the most hilarious article to come out of Wages of Wins in a while. You gotta love how they try to explain away why D-Will was bad last year (and not great the year before), while not acknowledging that for most of the year, Melo was passing to 2 of the worst shooters in the entire NBA. http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/19/are-the-nets-better-than-the-knicks/It’s almost as if they are admitting that your teammates matter! well, at least when one of their pet players’ results don’t conform to their worldview.

    I find it stupefying that there are people who actually buy into Wins Produced, it’s a stat which values Kris Humpries and Reggie Evans more per minute than players like Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, or Russell Westbrook (or even players like Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash, and Rajon Rondo lol) I think all you need to know about Wins Produced is that Landry Fields was considered a top 10 player in his rookie year. Dave Berri puts his name on a number that says Landry Fields was a better choice than Derrick Rose for MVP 2 years ago (and considered Fields a better Knick than Carmelo and Lin LAST YEAR)

  88. ruruland

    Juany8: I find it stupefying that there are people who actually buy into Wins Produced, it’s a stat which values Kris Humpries and Reggie Evans more per minute than players like Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, or Russell Westbrook (or even players like Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash, and Rajon Rondo lol) I think all you need to know about Wins Produced is that Landry Fields was considered a top 10 player in his rookie year. Dave Berri puts his name on a number that says Landry Fields was a better choice than Derrick Rose for MVP 2 years ago (and considered Fields a better Knick than Carmelo and Lin LAST YEAR)

    And doesn’t THCJ think it still values shot creation too much. That Evans is still undervalued by the metric. Hilarious.

  89. Frank

    I think WP48 and the like will be more valuable when more is known about rebounds, how they happen, which ones are more “contested” than others, etc., because as it is, rebounds are ridiculously overrated leading to guys like Evans/Fields/Troy Murphy etc. being overvalued. If you remove uncontested rebounds from the equation (ie. anyone standing there could have gotten it) then maybe it’ll make more sense. But as it is now, some of the outliers are so outlandishly obviously incorrect that it’s hard to give credence to it.

  90. Juany8

    As far as total wins, setting the bar at 55+ might be too much with the injury concerns on this team, especially since Shump is a bit of an unknown at this point. Only 4 teams went past 55 wins last season and only 6 the year before. The only one of those teams that hasn’t won a championship since 2007 is the Bulls, who had the best record in the league the past 2 years. Optimistically, I think the Knicks can play like solid contender (Think Magic before last year, or Memphis in the West) in the playoffs assuming their core is healthy. They’ll have a ton of versatility at the very least (I think everyone except Camby and Chandler spent consistent time at 2 positions last year)

  91. Juany8

    Frank: I think WP48 and the like will be more valuable when more is known about rebounds, how they happen, which ones are more “contested” than others, etc., because as it is, rebounds are ridiculously overrated leading to guys like Evans/Fields/Troy Murphy etc. being overvalued. If you remove uncontested rebounds from the equation (ie. anyone standing there could have gotten it) then maybe it’ll make more sense. But as it is now, some of the outliers are so outlandishly obviously incorrect that it’s hard to give credence to it.

    The rebounds aren’t even that big a problem, it’s the way the stat handles offense. Low usage players don’t get many turnovers per minute (which are primarily a function of how long you have the ball), which is why so many of the obvious outliers are super low usage players. Next, Wins Produced treats going 1-2 with no Ft’s for 3 points the same as going 10-20 for 30 points. It’s pretty damn obvious which game is better to everyone ever, except the Wins Produced crowd apperently (not that I think Wins Shares does much better on the subject)

    Even more glaring than the offensive inconsistencies are the stat’s defensive issues. Basically Wins Produced assumes that when a 5 man unit gets a certain defensive rating, all 5 guys contributed exactly the same to the defense. By this logic, Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire are 100% equal defenders when they are out on the court together. I don’t know how someone can be aware of that and still agree with anything WP has to say

  92. ruruland

    Juany8:
    As far as total wins, setting the bar at 55+ might be too much with the injury concerns on this team, especially since Shump is a bit of an unknown at this point. Only 4 teams went past 55 wins last season and only 6 the year before. The only one of those teams that hasn’t won a championship since 2007 is the Bulls, who had the best record in the league the past 2 years. Optimistically, I think the Knicks can play like solid contender (Think Magic before last year, or Memphis in the West) in the playoffs assuming their core is healthy. They’ll have a ton of versatility at the very least (I think everyone except Camby and Chandler spent consistent time at 2 positions last year)

    You can easily make the argument that Brewer is an upgrade over Shumpert on both ends… at least in the short run…The guy’s Synergy defensive numbers are elite — better than Deng and Iguodola.

    Let’s remember, 51 projected wins last year, 18-6 under Woodson — and all the things that went wrong.

    Look, Utah, Denver, Houston, Phoenix,New Orleans, even Dallas, Orlando and San Antonio — all teams that have been in the 55 win area the last few years. All teams, I’d argue the Knicks are quite comparable or superior to in terms of talent.

  93. ruruland

    Juany8: The rebounds aren’t even that big a problem, it’s the way the stat handles offense. Low usage players don’t get many turnovers per minute (which are primarily a function of how long you have the ball), which is why so many of the obvious outliers are super low usage players. Next, Wins Produced treats going 1-2 with no Ft’s for 3 points the same as going 10-20 for 30 points. It’s pretty damn obvious which game is better to everyone ever, except the Wins Produced crowd apperently (not that I think Wins Shares does much better on the subject)

    Even more glaring than the offensive inconsistencies are the stat’s defensive issues. Basically Wins Produced assumes that when a 5 man unit gets a certain defensive rating, all 5 guys contributed exactly the same to the defense. By this logic, Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire are 100% equal defenders when they are out on the court together. I don’t know how someone can be aware of that and still agree with anything WP has to say

    No doubt. It’s pretty horrendous when you consider those things.

  94. Juany8

    ruruland: You can easily make the argument that Brewer is an upgrade over Shumpert on both ends… at least in the short run…The guy’s Synergy defensive numbers are elite — better than Deng and Iguodola. Let’s remember, 51 projected wins last year, 18-6 under Woodson — and all the things that went wrong. Look, Utah, Denver, Houston, Phoenix,New Orleans, even Dallas, Orlando and San Antonio — all teams that have been in the 55 win area the last few years. All teams, I’d argue the Knicks are quite comparable or superior to in terms of talent.

    I think the Knicks will be in the ball park of 55 wins (I’d say 54 if asked right now) but that even small injuries will derail the team from winning something like 57. JR, Felton, and Melo are the only players who could be considered a low injury risk next year (maybe Novak?)

  95. Z-man

    ephus: Having said that, I expect that teams will hedge and double against Lin, rather than go under the screen, because he is so much more effective when he can turn the corner against the big man and get up a head of steam. Felton is not the same sort of penetration threat, so he is less likely to get the defense to commit a third man against the PnR.

    So far, Lin has a dozen or so games when he was phenomenal at getting to the rim and/or to the line. I’m not convinced that he will continue to be able to do that now that his tendencies are fully understood. One scenario would be for him to become a Tony Parker-type of PG. Parker is not a great 3pt shooter and not a physical beast, but nobody has quite figured out how to keep him from getting to the rim. To me, it all depends on Lin’s left hand, which is a tough thing to fix at age 23.

  96. Caleb

    Z-man: So, what do you attribute Felton’s 25-game stretch of all-star level basketball in his first go-around with the Knicks? Go back into the KB archives and read the posts from then. Because it was inconsistent with his career #s? Wasn’t Lin’s play for a dozen games inconsistent with his prior numbers (oh, that’s right, he didn’t have any prior career), and didn’t they tail off dramatically?

    Lin didn’t tail off that dramatically. His volume was down once Melo came back, but his turnover rate was actually lower post-Linsanity – it dropped steadily all season – and if I recall, he had a TS% of .590 over his last 10 games.

    I’m not trying to beat a dead horse, but a lot of the comments here make it sound like Lin fell off a cliff after his first 10 games. I’d say his overall play was pretty steady, and gradually improving, he just wasn’t getting 20 shots a game. We should be looking at rate #s, not per-game stats. This is Knickerblogger, dammit!

  97. Jafa

    ruruland: I don’t see any reason to think Boston is head and shoulders better than NY — not by any stretch.

    We beat that team twice last season, and could have won both games in Boston.

    In fact, the Knicks SRS (and of course expected wins) was higher than Boston’s last year..

    I’d argue that the Knicks had a better off-season (Terry is less effective than Allen, and Stiemsma was excellent for them)

    Moreover, Garnett showed real signs of decline throughout the regular season, and Pierce showed it in the post-season…
    They rely on their old guys. The Knicks, less so.

    Boston won 39 games, which over an 82 game season is 48 wins. We won 36 games which would be 45 wins. They replaced Ray Allen with Jason Terry, added Jeff Green, Courtney Lee and two mid 1st round picks (Jared Sullinger, a former lottery talent, and Fab Melo) while losing Steimsma. They have a better coach, a deeper bench to give their old guys (KG and PP) a rest during the season and a core that has been together for a long time and won a championship together. I think they end up with a better regular season record than us again.

    This is not about us beating them head-to-head, its about playoff positioning (we beat Indiana head-to-head last year 2-1 and they still got a better playoff spot than we did).

  98. Jafa

    Z-man:
    I’m not so high on Indiana. We beat them back to back last year and they needed a 40+ point 4th Q to beat us in the last game. Hibbert moves like a 50 year old and just got a max contract. Who is their starting PG now?

    Again, not about head-to-head. If they win their division (which is a good possibility with Rose injured), they are automatically in the top 4 in regards to playoff seeding.

  99. Juany8

    Z-man: So far, Lin has a dozen or so games when he was phenomenal at getting to the rim and/or to the line. I’m not convinced that he will continue to be able to do that now that his tendencies are fully understood. One scenario would be for him to become a Tony Parker-type of PG. Parker is not a great 3pt shooter and not a physical beast, but nobody has quite figured out how to keep him from getting to the rim. To me, it all depends on Lin’s left hand, which is a tough thing to fix at age 23.

    Although I tend to trust Daryl Morey on player evaluation, I still can’t figure out why he chose to pay Lin the same amount he would have had to pay Dragic. Lowry had wanted to leave anyway and the Rockets at least got a high draft pick for him. Going from Dragic to Lin is a sideways move at best (although it does give the Rockets more attention than they’ve had since Yao Ming retired)

    I think the Knicks needed to keep him since they were capped out anyways, the way the Rockets handled the PG situation made absolutely no sense (seriously, what if Dolan had just matched…)

  100. Caleb

    ruruland: You think Boston had a great off-season? Green and Terry are solid, Lee is ok, but look at what they lost. I don’t think they’re better than last season.

    “Great” might be too dramatic, since we’re talking secondary players, but they added a lot more than they lost. I’d say Courtney Lee is probably a better player than Allen at this point in their careers – he’s certainly a much better defender – and Terry still has something in the tank. They made their end-of-season and playoff run without a lot of Ray-Ray, so that looks like a pretty big upgrade. It looks like they’re losing Stiemsma, but they got better anyway by landing Sullinger, who fills the one hole they really had – no true post scorer. He’ll probably play more like a top-10 pick than a #21. Meanwhile, Green is a straight-up addition to last year’s roster.

    Wilcox is bad, but no worse than Hollins.

  101. Caleb

    Juany8: Although I tend to trust Daryl Morey on player evaluation, I still can’t figure out why he chose to pay Lin the same amount he would have had to pay Dragic. Lowry had wanted to leave anyway and the Rockets at least got a high draft pick for him. Going from Dragic to Lin is a sideways move at best (although it does give the Rockets more attention than they’ve had since Yao Ming retired)

    I think the Knicks needed to keep him since they were capped out anyways, the way the Rockets handled the PG situation made absolutely no sense (seriously, what if Dolan had just matched…)

    I think Dragic is a great comp to Lin – they look pretty similar to me in terms of style and talent level. But Lin is three years younger so you get more potential reward, along with more risk. And he’s costing the Rockets less – $25 million over 3, instead of $36 million over 4.

  102. Juany8

    Caleb: Lin didn’t tail off that dramatically. His volume was down once Melo came back, but his turnover rate was actually lower post-Linsanity – it dropped steadily all season – and if I recall, he had a TS% of .590 over his last 10 games. I’m not trying to beat a dead horse, but a lot of the comments here make it sound like Lin fell off a cliff after his first 10 games. I’d say his overall play was pretty steady, and gradually improving, he just wasn’t getting 20 shots a game. We should be looking at rate #s, not per-game stats. This is Knickerblogger, dammit!

    Well then let’s be fair and mention that him handling less of the offense probably caused his turnovers to decrease more than any change in skill would have. I actually liked the way he played under Woodson more than the Linsanity games (way more under control, was sharing the ball with Amar’e and Melo nicely after ignoring them routinely under MDA) but I don’t know if that version of Lin is going to be that much better than Felton this year, especially since Lin was a poor defender other than steals (and even Allen Iverson got a lot of steals, it doesn’t mean shit if you can’t cover a pick and roll properly)

  103. Juany8

    Caleb: I think Dragic is a great comp to Lin – they look pretty similar to me in terms of style and talent level. But Lin is three years younger so you get more potential reward, along with more risk. And he’s costing the Rockets less – $25 million over 3, instead of $36 million over 4.

    Not sure where you’re getting $36, most places I’ve looked have placed it between $30-32, which averages less than what Lin would average over the first 3 years. Lin is younger, but Dragic is young enough that the extra year shouldn’t have been a problem. It’s basically the same money, but I don’t know how you refuse to give it to Dragic but then give it to Lin with the added risk that a rich owner could match and leave you with nothing (not to mention the fact that Dolan’s best basketball move was to match)

  104. Frank

    Caleb: Lin didn’t tail off that dramatically. His volume was down once Melo came back, but his turnover rate was actually lower post-Linsanity – it dropped steadily all season – and if I recall, he had a TS% of .590 over his last 10 games.

    I’m not trying to beat a dead horse, but a lot of the comments here make it sound like Lin fell off a cliff after his first 10 games. I’d say his overall play was pretty steady, and gradually improving, he just wasn’t getting 20 shots a game. We should be looking at rate #s, not per-game stats. This is Knickerblogger, dammit!

    Interesting thing about Jeremy – I think we can agree that his best offensive attribute is his ability to get to the free throw line and convert there. He averaged 7 FTA/36 last year, which seemed to me to be outlandishly high for a PG.

    So I created a season finder at B-R with these attributes:
    - last 5 seasons, guard, 6’4″ or shorter, qualified for minutes leaderboard, 7 FTA/36

    And only 7 names showed up – Wade, Iverson, Billups, Westbrook, Devin Harris, Louis Williams, and Ramon Sessions.

    Now if you add to that search that the player has to play >28 min/game (starter minutes), then Sessions and Williams drop out. Billups probably shouldn’t be considered in the same conversation because his FTA are all cheapos, so really it’s just Wade, Iverson, Russ, and Harris. Other than Iverson, the other 3 guys are much bigger than Lin.

    If you go back all the way TWENTY seasons, you don’t add that many names – Arenas, Sam Cassell x1, and Steve Francis.

    In terms of style of FTA acquisition, Lin is a lot more like Francis, Wade, Iverson, and Westbrook. Is he going to be able to hold up physically? It’s a big question. To last in this league, he will need to find other ways to score.

  105. Caleb

    Juany8: Well then let’s be fair and mention that him handling less of the offense probably caused his turnovers to decrease more than any change in skill would have. I actually liked the way he played under Woodson more than the Linsanity games (way more under control, was sharing the ball with Amar’e and Melo nicely after ignoring them routinely under MDA) but I don’t know if that version of Lin is going to be that much better than Felton this year, especially since Lin was a poor defender other than steals (and even Allen Iverson got a lot of steals, it doesn’t mean shit if you can’t cover a pick and roll properly)

    I’m too lazy (or too employed) to calculate an actual TOV ratio for Lin, by month, but I thought I’ve seen his TOV rate was down the second half of the year. His Assist/TO ratio was basically identical his first 13 games, to his second 13 (1.68:1 then 1.66:1).

    I am pretty optimistic on his scoring efficiency – he posted a .552 TS% with a 28.1 usage rate, and he did it without any flukishly good 3-point shooting. He’s not a good 3-point shooter but his efficiency last year wasn’t based on making shots, it came from getting to the line. Apologies to THCJ but you’d expect efficiency to go up as his usage rate drops to a more normal territory, say 23 or 24.

    On defense, someone posted the Synergy #s which said Lin was better, one-on-one, than Felton last year. I don’t actually think he’s a better man defender – that’s just one piece of data – but I wouldn’t overstate his defensive problems, especially for a young player.

  106. Caleb

    Juany8: Not sure where you’re getting $36, most places I’ve looked have placed it between $30-32, which averages less than what Lin would average over the first 3 years. Lin is younger, but Dragic is young enough that the extra year shouldn’t have been a problem. It’s basically the same money, but I don’t know how you refuse to give it to Dragic but then give it to Lin with the added risk that a rich owner could match and leave you with nothing (not to mention the fact that Dolan’s best basketball move was to match)

    Ah, you’re right on the contract, don’t know why I remembered $36m. So they’re basically getting paid the same – about $500k apart.

    Why’d he do it? Calculcated gamble – he did it because he thinks Lin is better. Time will tell. In general, I think it’s smart to bet on the higher-risk, higher-reward player, because that’s the only way to crack the group of the top teams.

  107. Z-man

    Caleb: Lin didn’t tail off that dramatically. His volume was down once Melo came back, but his turnover rate was actually lower post-Linsanity – it dropped steadily all season – and if I recall, he had a TS% of .590 over his last 10 games. I’m not trying to beat a dead horse, but a lot of the comments here make it sound like Lin fell off a cliff after his first 10 games. I’d say his overall play was pretty steady, and gradually improving, he just wasn’t getting 20 shots a game. We should be looking at rate #s, not per-game stats. This is Knickerblogger, dammit!

    Caleb, look at his feb vs. march splits, which basically cuts Lin’s relevant career into two neat halves.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/splits/2012/

    Does .407 fg% with .324 3pt% translates to .600TS? On 5 FTs per game at 85%, it doesn’t sound right. He also went from nearly 8 fts per game down to 5. His assists rate went down as well. Injury? Maybe, maybe not.

  108. ephus

    If the Rockets had not gotten Lin, I think they would have either brought back Aaron Brooks or made a trade with Atlanta for Devin Harris (after September 11).

  109. Frank

    Caleb:
    On defense, someone posted the Synergy #s which said Lin was better, one-on-one, than Felton last year. I don’t actually think he’s a better man defender – that’s just one piece of data – but I wouldn’t overstate his defensive problems, especially for a young player.

    Synergy defensive #s are tough to use IMHO – mostly because the PPP-against for any particular player is very much impacted by the other guys on his team — ESPECIALLY for the backcourt guys. Lin played tons of minutes with Tyson Chandler guarding the rim, hedging PNRs, etc., and we all know the DPOY makes everyone look good.

  110. Caleb

    Z-man: Caleb, look at his feb vs. march splits, which basically cuts Lin’s relevant career into two neat halves.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/splits/2012/

    Does .407 fg% with .324 3pt% translates to .600TS? On 5 FTs per game at 85%, it doesn’t sound right. He also went from nearly 8 fts per game down to 5.His assists rate went down as well. Injury? Maybe, maybe not.

    I’m not sure what you’re asking… his TS% on the year was .552, with a 28.1 usage rate.

    My main points were:
    - it wasn’t artificially high, as if he shot 42% from 3, or something he’ll never do again. He only hit 32% from 3, which seems in line with his college and rookie numbers. So the scoring efficiency seems sustainable.

    - If anything, efficiency should go up as usage goes down. Lin’s usage rate was really high, and would have gone down next year. (as-is, he might be the Allen Iverson of Houston next year)

    Last year, Lin’s usage rate went way down once Melo was back on the court.. Lin took fewer shots, had fewer assists, made fewer TOs, etc… he just had the ball less. His TS% actually went up, as you see on Frank’s chart.

  111. Caleb

    Frank: Synergy defensive #s are tough to use IMHO – mostly because the PPP-against for any particular player is very much impacted by the other guys on his team — ESPECIALLY for the backcourt guys.Lin played tons of minutes with Tyson Chandler guarding the rim, hedging PNRs, etc., and we all know the DPOY makes everyone look good.

    Sure, I’d agree with that.

  112. DRed

    “Next, Wins Produced treats going 1-2 with no Ft’s for 3 points the same as going 10-20 for 30 points”

    No, it does not.

  113. Z-man

    Caleb: I’m not sure what you’re asking… his TS% on the year was .552, with a 28.1 usage rate. My main points were:- it wasn’t artificially high, as if he shot 42% from 3, or something he’ll never do again. He only hit 32% from 3, which seems in line with his college and rookie numbers. So the scoring efficiency seems sustainable. – If anything, efficiency should go up as usage goes down. Lin’s usage rate was really high, and would have gone down next year. (as-is, he might be the Allen Iverson of Houston next year)Last year, Lin’s usage rate went way down once Melo was back on the court.. Lin took fewer shots, had fewer assists, made fewer TOs, etc… he just had the ball less. His TS% actually went up, as you see on Frank’s chart.

    I was wondering why the numbers for all 13 games in March were significantly lower than the numbers for the last 10 games. It looks like the 3 games not accounted for were the early March road games vs. Boston, Dallas and San Antonio. Including those 3 games gives a more representative sample, imho, than leaving them out because in includes 2 elite PGs and two elite teams. The toughest team Lin faced in the last 10 games was Chicago (Rose’s first game back from injury?) then Indiana and Philly, both of whom had second-level PGs at best; the rest were bad teams. I would agree that this is fruitless in that no matter how you look at 26 games, it shouldn’t mean that much, but if we are to do so anyway, those last 10 games are not as representative and telling as the last 13 games.

  114. Z-man

    Looking at it another way, to go deep in the playoffs in the east, the Knicks are gonna have to deal with the likes of Rondo, Williams, and Rose, not to mention Chalmers backed up by the fearsome Heat roster. My opinion is that Felton is a safer bet to hold his own vs. those guys next year, and possibly thereafter.

  115. JC Knickfan

    Caleb: Ah, you’re right on the contract, don’t know why I remembered $36m. So they’re basically getting paid the same – about $500k apart.

    Why’d he do it? Calculcated gamble – he did it because he thinks Lin is better. Time will tell. In general, I think it’s smart to bet on the higher-risk, higher-reward player, because that’s the only way to crack the group of the top teams.

    I agree with assessment why Morey didn’t pursue Goran harder. Plus Lin is 2 years younger then Goran. Also has there every been player have his first 25 games as starter be the best of his career?

    Lin’s Basic Athletic Measurement (BAM) against Wall/Rose/Irving
    http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/03/life-in-the-fast-lane/

  116. Juany8

    DRed: “Next, Wins Produced treats going 1-2 with no Ft’s for 3 points the same as going 10-20 for 30 points”No, it does not.

    Actually you’re right, I misinterpreted part of the calculation. What it actually does is say 1-2 for 2 points is BETTER than 10-20 for 20 points. It also says that going 3-4 for 6 points is better than 11-20 for 22 points. Either way it overvalues efficiency while disregarding the effects of role on a player’s shots and turnovers (guess who probably gets more turnovers, the guy with 20 shots or with 2 shots?), while making anyone below a certain efficiency treshhold become a worse player for taking more shots

  117. iserp

    GO SPAIN!!!

    I feel that although LeBron James is awesome because he does it all, in a good team, Melo is more useful in a good team because he has better SF skills.

  118. ephus

    iserp:
    GO SPAIN!!!

    I feel that although LeBron James is awesome because he does it all, in a good team, Melo is more useful in a good team because he has better SF skills.

    I literally cannot imagine a team where I would rather have Carmelo Anthony than Lebron James.

  119. Juany8

    iserp: GO SPAIN!!!I feel that although LeBron James is awesome because he does it all, in a good team, Melo is more useful in a good team because he has better SF skills.

    Melo does have a wider range of skills than Lebron, but Lebron is elite at more things than Melo is. 2 of those skills in particular (fast break ability and team defense) are what makes Lebron so good and why Miami won the championship last year. Once Lebron’s speed starts wearing off though, it’ll be interesting to see if he’s still skilled enough to impact the game at an historic level.

    It’s also fun to point out that Lebron actually had his worst playoff series against the Knicks last year, even though Tyson Chandler was just a shell of himself in game 1 and not much better in game 2 (and Lebron only really went off in game 1 when Chandler was so weak due to the flu that he went 0-7 after having an outstandingly efficienct season)

  120. Juany8

    ephus: I literally cannot imagine a team where I would rather have Carmelo Anthony than Lebron James.

    Actually the Celtics team that won the title a few years ago comes to mind. Melo’s game is a lot closer to Pierce’s than Lebron at least, and I personally like Melo off the ball just as much as Lebron. The defense is still obviously in Lebron’s favor, but I can at least see teams where Melo would be just as useful offensively as Lebron.

  121. BigBlueAL

    Melo is killing Spain so far, 23 pts on 8 for 10 shooting and I dont think he has dribbled more than twice. Love seeing this version of Melo, of course it would help if the NBA had the international 3pt line and if LeBron played for the Knicks to help set Melo up lol

  122. johnlocke

    Passing is the other skill you forgot to mention, where he is amazing. If his teammates are open, he’s finding them and he’s strong enough to throw accurate cross court passes more effectively than pretty much anyone else in the league.

    Juany8: Melo does have a wider range of skills than Lebron, but Lebron is elite at more things than Melo is. 2 of those skills in particular (fast break ability and team defense) are what makes Lebron so good and why Miami won the championship last year. Once Lebron’s speed starts wearing off though, it’ll be interesting to see if he’s still skilled enough to impact the game at an historic level.

    It’s also fun to point out that Lebron actually had his worst playoff series against the Knicks last year, even though Tyson Chandler was just a shell of himself in game 1 and not much better in game 2 (and Lebron only really went off in game 1 when Chandler was so weak due to the flu that he went 0-7 after having an outstandingly efficienct season)

  123. dogrufus

    ruruland: Felton isn’t overweight, and he’s a decent penetrator, especially in pnr. Secondly, Felton’as assists per 36 were higher in MDA’s offense than Lin’s. (8.5 vs 8.3)

    Felton’s a MUCH worse penetrator than Lin.

    Felton: 3.7 attempts at rim per 40, 27% of his shots at rim,
    Lin: 5.9 at rim per 40, 36% of shots at rim, .477 fta/fga .193

    Can we please stop kidding ourselves about these extremely easily verifiable statistical realities? For Ewing’s sake, Lin’s FT ratio is more than TWICE as high. Finishing at the rim at high volume through contact is not the kind of thing you just do as a fluke. It’s not like a hot shooting streak from three point range. It’s a rare and special ability that very few players have. We just gave up a prospect who may be able to do that at an elite level, for a mediocre journeyman who we know to a certainty can’t.

    Let’s please not kid ourselves by pretending Felton can penetrate like Lin. And let’s please also not kid ourselves by forgetting how incredible we’d be if we had a PG rotation of Lin-Felton-Kidd instead of Felton-Kidd-Prigioni.

    Whatever we have must always be compared against that: against the true elite caliber team we could have been if Dolan had finally opened his wallet the one time it was justified after doing it 100 times where it wasn’t. We could have been a 65 win team, the kind of team that’s a FAVORITE for the finals. Instead we’re a maxed out 50-55 win team, the kind that wins a series or two.

    Do you really think Felton’s good numbers playing with Amar’e were due to his brilliance? All Felton did was make some competent passes and shoot a little hot for a month or two. It was Amar’e who was displaying his last burst of truly elite athleticism and scoring ability before beginning this big long steady decline that will make his contract one of the worst in…

  124. ephus

    I do not doubt that Carmelo Anthony has great scoring skills and will not fight that there might be teams where Anthony’s offensive skills are

    Juany8: just as useful offensively as Lebron

    What I laugh at is the idea that

    iserp: Melo is more useful in a good team because he has better SF skills

    I think even Ruru would admit that Lebron is a better defender, a better passer and a better ball handler.

    In short, Lebron James matches Carmelo Anthony’s offensive strengths, and has strengths that Carmelo Anthony cannot match. I defy anyone to name a team that would prefer to have Carmelo Anthony over Lebron James, everything else being held equal.

  125. johnlocke

    The Syracuse Alumni Basketball Team…

    ephus: What I laugh at is the idea that

    iserp: Melo is more useful in a good team because he has better SF skills

    I think even Ruru would admit that Lebron is a better defender, a better passer and a better ball handler.

    In short, Lebron James matches Carmelo Anthony’s offensive strengths, and has strengths that Carmelo Anthony cannot match.I defy anyone to name a team that would prefer to have Carmelo Anthony over Lebron James, everything else being held equal.

  126. jon abbey

    dogrufus: We could have been a 65 win team, the kind of team that’s a FAVORITE for the finals.

    oh my god, no no no no no no no. no one in the entire league has won 65 games since two teams did it in 2008-2009, people really need to get some perspective.

    I’m personally not convinced that NY would have been better without Lin, I’d guess that we’re in the 50-55 win range either way, and maybe a seed somewhere in the 3-6 range.

  127. johnlocke

    Dude, I loved Lin, but he is NOT the difference between us being finals contenders or not, that’s just silly. Amare and Melo need to both play to their full potential, Lin would have made us a better team, but the difference is not as dramatic as you’re describing.

    dogrufus:

    Whatever we have must always be compared against that:against the true elite caliber team we could have been if Dolan had finally opened his wallet the one time it was justified after doing it 100 times where it wasn’t.We could have been a 65 win team, the kind of team that’s a FAVORITE for the finals.Instead we’re a maxed out 50-55 win team, the kind that wins a series or two.

  128. nicos

    dogrufus:
    Do you really think Felton’s good numbers playing with Amar’e were due to his brilliance?All Felton did was make some competent passes and shoot a little hot for a month or two.It was Amar’e who was displaying his last burst of truly elite athleticism and scoring ability before beginning this big long steady decline that will make his contract one of the worst in…

    But remember that Chandler played the best ball of his career during that stretch, ditto Fields, Gallo’s put up a .600 TS% and tied the highest ws of his career, and Amar’e played the best sans Nash ball of his career. All with a fat, piece of crap, trigger happy, non-penetrating point guard. Look I wanted to re-sign Lin too, that doesn’t mean Felton sucks- he played pretty well when he was here and if he plays like that again will probably have a top ten offense to go with a top ten defense.

  129. JK47

    The way I figure it, the Knicks should be a good defensiv team that struggles to score. I’m not a believer in the Felton/Kidd backcourt, and I also think the Knicks have too many guys who are mediocre to poor jump shooters.

    Unless Stoudemire has a miracle return to 600 TS form and Melo has that big breakout season, there just aren’t enough efficient offensive players on the Knicks. I think the team will look a lot like last year’s team, which played fine defense at times but really struggled on offense. Keep in mind that the Knicks had the easiest schedule in the NBA last year– dead last in the NBA in Strength of Schedule. People who are looking for 55+ wins are going to be disappointed.

  130. johnlocke

    This could be true, worried about our shooting as I’ve said on numerous occasions — Lin is also a mediocre to poor jump shooter also though and he was much less efficient with a healthy Knicks roster than he was when the 2nd and 3rd go to scorers were Chandler and Novak.

    JK47:
    The way I figure it, the Knicks should be a good defensiv team that struggles to score. I’m not a believer in the Felton/Kidd backcourt, and I also think the Knicks have too many guys who are mediocre to poor jump shooters.

    Unless Stoudemire has a miracle return to 600 TS form and Melo has that big breakout season, there just aren’t enough efficient offensive players on the Knicks. I think the team will look a lot like last year’s team, which played fine defense at times but really struggled on offense. Keep in mind that the Knicks had the easiest schedule in the NBA last year– dead last in the NBA in Strength of Schedule. People who are looking for 55+ wins are going to be disappointed.

  131. dogrufus

    Look, you can disagree on whether we’d have been good enough to win 60+ with Lin, fine.

    But you can’t disagree that we’d have a much better chance to be that good if our PG rotation was Lin/Felton/Kidd instead of Felton/Kidd/Prigioni. Now we’re maxed out and have no chance of getting there in the near future. We have no possible way to get a better PG than Felton without giving up Chandler.

    When you trade all your picks and go all in on a win-now strategy, maxing out at a 50 win level is failure, and that’s what our FO knowingly chose.

  132. dogrufus

    nicos: But remember that Chandler played the best ball of his career during that stretch, ditto Fields, Gallo’s put up a .600 TS% and tied the highest ws of his career, and Amar’e played the best sans Nash ball of his career.All with a fat, piece of crap, trigger happy, non-penetrating point guard.Look I wanted to re-sign Lin too, that doesn’t mean Felton sucks- he played pretty well when he was here and if he plays like that again will probably have a top ten offense to go with a top ten defense.

    Fields’ better play had nothing to do with Felton. He got more rebounds because we had like the worst rebounders in the league at the 3-5 positions. He hit a few of the wide open threes that he missed like every one of last season. Other than that he was exactly the same.

    Wilson had a predictable down year from being in China. Gallo wasn’t any better than he’s been in Denver pre injury.

    Even then, the overachievement of that unit was due to Amar’es last burst of elite athleticism, not the efforts of a PG who’s been mediocre for 100% of the rest of his career. 2012 Amare looks NOTHING like 2010 Amare. There’s zero chance of him regaining even that form.

  133. Juany8

    I’d say having Novak and JR for a full year should help with spacing tremendously. I’d also say that both Kidd and Felton are better shooters than any guard the Knicks had last year (except JR, who came in pretty late). Unfortunately this team doesn’t have a truly consistent shooter outside of Novak, and he’s very limited in every single other aspect of his game. If Battier can shoot like 60% from 3 during the Finals after being an average shooter during the season, however, players like JR and Kidd are certainly capable of doing the same for a series

  134. iserp

    I’d repeat what i said in the other thread: i don’t understand why you think that NY is entitled to be at a financial advantage over the rest of the teams. The FO considered Felton / Kidd / Camby > Lin, that’s it; that’s the reality of the NBA.

  135. dogrufus

    jon abbey: oh my god, no no no no no no no. no one in the entire league has won 65 games since two teams did it in 2008-2009, people really need to get some perspective.

    I’m personally not convinced that NY would have been better without Lin, I’d guess that we’re in the 50-55 win range either way, and maybe a seed somewhere in the 3-6 range.

    You’re not convinced we’d be better with Lin/Felton/Kidd than Felton/Kidd/Prigioni, and I’m the one who needs to get perspective?

    The evidence says this is a talented roster. We had the SRS or a 50 win team last year in a year when absolutely everything went wrong at all times. Had we kept Lin, we’d have added a ton of depth while losing no talent. We’d be ROCK solid at pretty much every position with youth, talent, defense, and experience.

    Lin/Felton/Kidd
    Shump/JR/Kidd
    Melo/Brewer
    Amare/Novak/KT
    Tyson/Camby/KT

    Now we’re a fatally flawed team with the worst PG rotation int he league and an offense that has zero chance of being top 10. We’ve completely maxed out (losing Lin for nothing gives us LESS assets and LESS flexibility).

    Going from the worst PG rotation in the league to an average one makes a big difference. You can argue what our ceiling was, but you can’t argue that we didn’t destroy our opportunity to reach it.

  136. BigBlueAL

    jon abbey: oh my god, no no no no no no no. no one in the entire league has won 65 games since two teams did it in 2008-2009, people really need to get some perspective.

    I’m personally not convinced that NY would have been better without Lin, I’d guess that we’re in the 50-55 win range either way, and maybe a seed somewhere in the 3-6 range.

    If the Knicks are in the 50-55 win range no way they wind up with a seed below 5, most likely they would get a seed between 2-4.

  137. dogrufus

    iserp:
    I’d repeat what i said in the other thread: i don’t understand why you think that NY is entitled to be at a financial advantage over the rest of the teams. The FO considered Felton / Kidd / Camby > Lin, that’s it; that’s the reality of the NBA.

    I don’t think it’s entitled, I simply acknowledge the obvious reality that it is. To not use that massive advantage is criminally stupid.

    Lin had no impact on the Knicks’ ability to get Felton/Kidd/Camby. If they weren’t crippled by criminally incompetent ownership I have little doubt that getting Felton/Kidd/Camby and KEEPING Lin was Grunwald’s vision for making us a contender right now, hopelessly frustrated by his incompetent, pampered, infantile shitbag of an owner.

  138. jon abbey

    dogrufus:
    Look, you can disagree on whether we’d have been good enough to win 60+ with Lin, fine.

    But you can’t disagree that we’d have a much better chance to be that good if our PG rotation was Lin/Felton/Kidd instead of Felton/Kidd/Prigioni.

    actually I can, I think there’s a really good chance that a Lin/Felton/Kidd PG rotation would have ended up with three disgruntled PGs. there’s only 48 minutes to go around there per game, maybe 60 tops if they play a bit of SG also.

  139. nicos

    I’m hopeful Brewer’s TS% will bounce back somewhat- As a current Chicago resident I can tell you that while Thibs may be a defensive genius, the Bulls half court sets suck. He’s a very Landry-esque cutter and excellent in transition as well but spent most of his time in Chicago standing around so as not to get in Rose’s way. Really good defensively- as good as anybody on 2′s and solid on 3′s and bigger points as well.

  140. johnlocke

    Not so sure that was the calculus. The FO considered Felton to be approximately ~ the same level of production over the next 3 years (the championship window) as Lin, but at a MUCH lower cost to the franchise given both salary and luxury tax implications. NY is already at a financial advantage over other teams in the league in that they bring in more auxiliary revenue from MSG to be able to pay luxury taxes with more freedom than other teams might, which is why many (myself included) think that while there were financial/basketball reasons to choose Felton over Lin, emotions/loyalty also played a role in the calculus as well

    iserp:
    I’d repeat what i said in the other thread: i don’t understand why you think that NY is entitled to be at a financial advantage over the rest of the teams. The FO considered Felton / Kidd / Camby > Lin, that’s it; that’s the reality of the NBA.

  141. dogrufus

    Juany8:
    I’d say having Novak and JR for a full year should help with spacing tremendously. I’d also say that both Kidd and Felton are better shooters than any guard the Knicks had last year (except JR, who came in pretty late). Unfortunately this team doesn’t have a truly consistent shooter outside of Novak, and he’s very limited in every single other aspect of his game. If Battier can shoot like 60% from 3 during the Finals after being an average shooter during the season, however, players like JR and Kidd are certainly capable of doing the same for a series

    Actually, going into last season, Fields and Douglas’ stats showed them to be far better 3 point shooters than Kidd and Felton have ever been the last two seasons. They both shat the bed, just like Kidd is predictably going to now that he doesn’t have Dirk getting him wide open 3s (which he made at a really mediocre percentage).

    Oh, and Felton is a shitty 3pt shooter, probably worse than Lin projects to be. He was .305 last year and has been below .333 in 5 of 8 seasons. Don’t expect us to be in the top 15 3 point shooting teams. None of our starters are good shooters. Good thing we have a great penetrating PG to run the offense! Oh wait, we let that guy leave for absolutely nothing even though other teams valued enough to pay him near max money.

  142. dogrufus

    jon abbey: actually I can, I think there’s a really good chance that a Lin/Felton/Kidd PG rotation would have ended up with three disgruntled PGs. there’s only 48 minutes to go around there per game, maybe 60 tops if they play a bit of SG also.

    Why would Kidd be disgruntled? You really think he wants anything more than to collect his nice swansong contract? I’m sure he wouldn’t mind if he never played another game. If he was really that bad we could just cut him or trade him. Lin would have trade value based on marketing alone (esp. since his contract is not nearly as bad for non-tax teams), and Felton’s contract is tradeable. We could at least get picks from under-the-cap teams.

    Even if Lin/Felton/Kidd turned out to be a disaster we’d have much more assets and flexibility to improve the situation. Now we have to hope Chris Paul takes the mini midlevel. Saying this situation is equivalent, where it’s a virtual given that we have the worst PG rotation in the league, is pretty much willful blindness.

  143. nicos

    dogrufus:

    Now we’re a fatally flawed team with the worst PG rotation int he league and an offense that has zero chance of being top 10.We’ve completely maxed out (losing Lin for nothing gives us LESS assets and LESS flexibility).

    Weren’t the Knicks a top ten offense with Felton at the point in 2010/11? And I seem to recall Denver’s offense not skipping a beat once he arrived and ran the point over Lawson a good deal of the time (at least until the playoffs that is). I get that Lin has far more upside but the idea that the offense is doomed because of Felton puzzles me because the Knicks’ offense ran just fine when he was here- they were a .500 team because their defense was atrocious.

  144. ruruland

    BigBlueAL:
    Melo is killing Spain so far, 23 pts on 8 for 10 shooting and I dont think he has dribbled more than twice.Love seeing this version of Melo, of course it would help if the NBA had the international 3pt line and if LeBron played for the Knicks to help set Melo up lol

    It’s just dribble penetration. Melo shoots the ball better behind the line than from 1 1/2 feet inside in the NBA at most spots.

    The more you put him off the ball, the higher his efficiency will be. This is how he’s always played on Team USA, with the exception of the Italy semfinal game in 2006, where he took over with the ball in his hands.

  145. nicos

    dogrufus: Fields’ better play had nothing to do with Felton.He got more rebounds because we had like the worst rebounders in the league at the 3-5 positions.He hit a few of the wide open threes that he missed like every one of last season.Other than that he was exactly the same.

    Wilson had a predictable down year from being in China.Gallo wasn’t any better than he’s been in Denver pre injury.

    Even then, the overachievement of that unit was due to Amar’es last burst of elite athleticism, not the efforts of a PG who’s been mediocre for 100% of the rest of his career.2012 Amare looks NOTHING like 2010 Amare.There’s zero chance of him regaining even that form.

    Please, check Fields’ splits at hoopdata- he had far higher % of assisted buckets during Felton’s tenure than he did after Felton left (or playing with Lin for that matter). Chandler never played that well before or since. Gallo shot as well as he ever shot. Neither Billups or Lin had as much success with Amar’e as Felton did. Was his usage too high for a guy with his TS%? Yes, but you can’t deny that he got guys good shots- the guy is perfectly capable of running an efficient offense.

  146. ruruland

    dogrufus: Actually, going into last season, Fields and Douglas’ stats showed them to be far better 3 point shooters than Kidd and Felton have ever been the last two seasons.They both shat the bed, just like Kidd is predictably going to now that he doesn’t have Dirk getting him wide open 3s (which he made at a really mediocre percentage).

    Oh, and Felton is a shitty 3pt shooter, probably worse than Lin projects to be.He was .305 last year and has been below .333 in 5 of 8 seasons.Don’t expect us to be in the top 15 3 point shooting teams.None of our starters are good shooters.Good thing we have a great penetrating PG to run the offense!Oh wait, we let that guy leave for absolutely nothing even though other teams valued enough to pay him near max money.

    Why do you believe that only Dirk can create open shots for Kidd out of double teams?

    Melo has more averaged assists than Dirk throughout his career despite roughly playing the same kind of offense.

  147. ruruland

    dogrufus: You’re not convinced we’d be better with Lin/Felton/Kidd than Felton/Kidd/Prigioni, and I’m the one who needs to get perspective?

    The evidence says this is a talented roster.We had the SRS or a 50 win team last year in a year when absolutely everything went wrong at all times.Had we kept Lin, we’d have added a ton of depth while losing no talent.We’d be ROCK solid at pretty much every position with youth, talent, defense, and experience.

    Lin/Felton/Kidd
    Shump/JR/Kidd
    Melo/Brewer
    Amare/Novak/KT
    Tyson/Camby/KT

    Now we’re a fatally flawed team with the worst PG rotation int he league and an offense that has zero chance of being top 10.We’ve completely maxed out (losing Lin for nothing gives us LESS assets and LESS flexibility).

    Going from the worst PG rotation in the league to an average one makes a big difference.You can argue what our ceiling was, but you can’t argue that we didn’t destroy our opportunity to reach it.

    Translation: Lin will win the MVP next season

  148. ruruland

    JK47:
    The way I figure it, the Knicks should be a good defensiv team that struggles to score. I’m not a believer in the Felton/Kidd backcourt, and I also think the Knicks have too many guys who are mediocre to poor jump shooters.

    Unless Stoudemire has a miracle return to 600 TS form and Melo has that big breakout season, there just aren’t enough efficient offensive players on the Knicks. I think the team will look a lot like last year’s team, which played fine defense at times but really struggled on offense. Keep in mind that the Knicks had the easiest schedule in the NBA last year– dead last in the NBA in Strength of Schedule. People who are looking for 55+ wins are going to be disappointed.

    Why would it be a miracle for Amare to return to .600 TS when that’s what he did after losing weight, much of that with a far inferior point guard situation….?

    He’s going to feast with Kidd and Felton.

    You’re talking about having a front-court that could quite easily combine to shoot over .600 ts, averaging close to 60 ppg.

    Throw in Novak and Smith, who could both easily combine for over .600 TS, and of course the offense can be elite.

  149. dogrufus

    nicos: Weren’t the Knicks a top ten offense with Felton at the point in 2010/11?And I seem to recall Denver’s offense not skipping a beat once he arrived and ran the point over Lawson a good deal of the time (at least until the playoffs that is).I get that Lin has far more upside but the idea that the offense is doomed because of Felton puzzles me because the Knicks’ offense ran just fine when he was here- they were a .500 team because their defense was atrocious.

    They were a top 10 offense with Amare’ playing like his .600 TS Phoenix self for most of the early season. That’s gone and it’s never coming back.

  150. Unreason

    Brewer is a sweet sign. Not only will the D be stifling, I think it could really help Woodson make JR accountable for his decisions. Last year Woodson was hamstrung because of Fields’ disappointing production and mediocre D and Shump being a j-less rook. I hope JR only gets to stay in at the end of games this year when he’s playing smart.

    I think the competition for minutes with elite defenders will also help bring out the best in JR’s D. It could also open up some really interesting small ball possibilities when Shump gets back.

    The thing I like most about Felton is the history of effectiveness with Amare. Getting Amare anywhere close to his early Knick could be really pretty huge. Having Kidd and Prigioni should help keep Felton accountable too. The thing I like least about him is that his fearlessness deludes him into thinking he’s a better shooting option than his more talented teammates.

  151. dogrufus

    ruruland: Why would it be a miracle for Amare to return to .600 TS when that’s what he did after losing weight, much of that with a far inferior point guard situation….?

    He’s going to feast with Kidd and Felton.

    You’re talking about having a front-court that could quite easily combine to shoot over .600 ts, averaging close to 60 ppg.

    Throw in Novak and Smith, who could both easily combine for over .600 TS, and of course the offense can be elite.

    Because he’s gonna be on the wrong side of 30, his knees are made of glass, his back is made of glass, he hasn’t looked legimately explosive/impressive/superstar-like for about 18 solid months, all of his utility is based on having peerless athleticism/explosiveness.

    He has NO back to the basket game. He contributes nothing on defense and is average at best on the glass. He’s either giving you .600 TS% on high volume or he’s a massive liability and one of the worst PFs in the league. He requires a ton of spacing (i.e. no Chandler and no defense) to be effective.

  152. dogrufus

    dogrufus: Because he’s gonna be on the wrong side of 30, his knees are made of glass, his back is made of glass, he hasn’t looked legimately explosive/impressive/superstar-like for about 18 solid months, all of his utility is based on having peerless athleticism/explosiveness.

    He has NO back to the basket game.He contributes nothing on defense and is average at best on the glass.He’s either giving you .600 TS% on high volume or he’s a massive liability and one of the worst PFs in the league.He requires a ton of spacing (i.e. no Chandler and no defense) to be effective.

    Oh, and the starting guards surrounding him are going to be some of the worst shooters in the NBA, so there’s that as well. We somehow managed to replace Lin, whose 3pt shooting was one of his biggest weaknesses, with one of the few PGs who is a worse shooter.

  153. ruruland

    dogrufus: Because he’s gonna be on the wrong side of 30, his knees are made of glass, his back is made of glass, he hasn’t looked legimately explosive/impressive/superstar-like for about 18 solid months, all of his utility is based on having peerless athleticism/explosiveness.

    He has NO back to the basket game.He contributes nothing on defense and is average at best on the glass.He’s either giving you .600 TS% on high volume or he’s a massive liability and one of the worst PFs in the league.He requires a ton of spacing (i.e. no Chandler and no defense) to be effective.

    Right, again, you believe that Lin is a future HOF, 2013 MVP frontrunner because of a great 25 game stretch.

    Amar’e had a +.600 Ts after the all-star break (21 games), not coincidentally, after he lost weight and was in basketball shape.

    Secondly, he was still an ELITE roll man last year, despite playing much of it without a pnr point guard like Felton. The problem was his distribution of shots was heavily tilted toward spot-ups, where Amar’e had a 15% drop in jump shooting percentage.

    His finished at the same rate last year as he has most of his career. Get him in more pick and rolls, a few easier looks on cuts and transition from Kidd, and have his jump shot back to normal percentages and he’ll likely come in above .600 TS given the reduced usage.

  154. ruruland

    Unreason:
    Brewer is a sweet sign. Not only will the D be stifling, I think it could really help Woodson make JR accountable for his decisions. Last year Woodson was hamstrung because of Fields’ disappointing production and mediocre D and Shump being a j-less rook. I hope JR only gets to stay in at the end of games this year when he’s playing smart.

    I think the competition for minutes with elite defenders will also help bring out the best in JR’s D. It could also open up some really interesting small ball possibilities when Shump gets back.

    The thing I like most about Felton is the history of effectiveness with Amare. Getting Amare anywhere close to his early Knick could be really pretty huge. Having Kidd and Prigioni should help keep Felton accountable too. The thing I like least about him is that his fearlessness deludes him into thinking he’s a better shooting option than his more talented teammates.

    Kidd, JR, Felton, Shump, Brewer and Melo — that’s a pretty darn good defensive backcourt.

    Kidd may be a liability against quick guards, but now we’ve got two guys who can take care of that issue — Kidd is still a plus team defender and on bigger guards.

  155. dogrufus

    ruruland: Translation: Lin will win the MVP next season

    So me saying he’d take our horrible PG rotation and turn it into an average one = me saying he’s the MVP?

    And I’m the one whose trolling, ruru?

    It appears your reflexive need to be a pro-Garden shill has overpowered your usual reasonableness for the moment.

  156. ruruland

    dogrufus: Oh, and the starting guards surrounding him are going to be some of the worst shooters in the NBA, so there’s that as well.We somehow managed to replace Lin, whose 3pt shooting was one of his biggest weaknesses, with one of the few PGs who is a worse shooter.

    I’ll go over the spot numbers in a bit, but the Knicks should be good in that area with Kidd (above average) Melo (above average), Felton (average), Novak (best in NBA), Smith (elite)……

    I’ll post his three year numbers here shortly

  157. Frank

    dogrufus: They were a top 10 offense with Amare’ playing like his .600 TS Phoenix self for most of the early season.That’s gone and it’s never coming back.

    So I know you are relatively new to this board, but usually we try to cite some evidence before making categorical statements. As a matter of fact, Amare looked very much like his Phoenix self (at least statistically) after he came back from the All Star Break – specifically, he averaged 20 points and 9 rebounds per 36, with a TS of 60. His usage was lower in this offense, which is why his pts/36 were down, but the efficiency was there. He finished at the rim with a better FG% than most of his years in PHX. So that Amare already came back.

    Is he going to be athletically the same as the 22 year old Amare that terrorized the league with Nash? No – but his jumper is better, and he has more than 1 move. I think he’ll be very good next year.

  158. ruruland

    dogrufus: So me saying he’d take our horrible PG rotation and turn it into an average one = me saying he’s the MVP?

    And I’m the one whose trolling, ruru?

    It appears your reflexive need to be a pro-Garden shill has overpowered your usual reasonableness for the moment.

    Kidd and Felton is the worst point guard duo in the NBA. How can that be interpreted as anything other than trolling. With Lin the Knicks are a great team, without him doomed. What else should I do with that?

  159. dogrufus

    ruruland: Right, again, you believe that Lin is a future HOF, 2013 MVP frontrunner because of a great 25 game stretch.

    Amar’e had a +.600 Ts after the all-star break (21 games), not coincidentally, after he lost weight and was in basketball shape.

    Secondly, he was still an ELITE roll man last year, despite playing much of it without a pnr point guard like Felton. The problem was his distribution of shots was heavily tilted toward spot-ups, where Amar’e had a 15% drop in jump shooting percentage.

    His finished at the same rate last year as he has most of his career. Get him in more pick and rolls, a few easier looks on cuts and transition from Kidd, and have his jump shot back to normal percentages and he’ll likely come in above .600 TS given the reduced usage.

    Right, again, you insist creating a straw man to tear down rather than engaging my actual arguments. Kind of becoming a habit for you.

    I didn’t mention Lin in the post you’re replying to at all, but that didn’t stop you.

    It’s a much different thing to have .600 TS as the second or third option in the offense, which is what Amare was towards the end of last season. There’s no evidence he’s capable of 25+ ppg on 60% TS, which is kind of the only thing he’s ever been notable for.

    If he was still as good as he was in 2010, he’d be finishing at a better rate given the large reduction in volume. In 2010 he’d often finish in traffic after creating his own shot. The fact that he’s taking fewer and easier attempts without an increase in efficiency is just more evidence for what’s plain to everyone but you and a few Knick fans prone to wishful thinking – he’s in massive, inexorable, irreversible decline, and there’s no chance we’ll ever see anything close to even 2010 Amare, which was itself a pale shadow of his .200+ WS Phx days.

    Sure am glad we’re saving on…

  160. ruruland

    Frank: So I know you are relatively new to this board, but usually we try to cite some evidence before making categorical statements. As a matter of fact, Amare looked very much like his Phoenix self (at least statistically) after he came back from the All Star Break – specifically, he averaged 20 points and 9 rebounds per 36, with a TS of 60. His usage was lower in this offense, which is why his pts/36 were down, but the efficiency was there. He finished at the rim with a better FG% than most of his years in PHX.So that Amare already came back.

    Is he going to be athletically the same as the 22 year old Amare that terrorized the league with Nash?No – but his jumper is better, and he has more than 1 move.I think he’ll be very good next year.

    And for the folks who think he has no b2basket game, he was a top 80 post player two years ago, and was very good three years ago.
    Many of isos turn into deep post plays…… He’s not a double and kick guy though like Melo.

  161. dogrufus

    ruruland: Kidd and Felton is the worst point guard duo in the NBA. How can that be interpreted as anything other than trolling. With Lin the Knicks are a great team, without him doomed. What else should I do with that?

    Name 3 point guard rotations worse please.

    It should be rather obvious that adding an above average starter to a PG rotation while losing nothing will significantly improve its quality since you can move the former start to the backup slot.

    I didn’t say we’re doomed to the lottery without Lin. I said we’re doomed to being a maxed out <55 win team perpetually one piece away.

  162. dogrufus

    ruruland: And for the folks who think he has no b2basket game, he was a top 80 post player two years ago, and was very good three years ago.
    Many of isos turn into deep post plays…… He’s not a double and kick guy though like Melo.

    Top 80? Seriously? Are there even 80 players that take a significant volume of shots in the post?

    Because this pretty much seems to support my thesis that Amare has no b2b game.

  163. ruruland

    dogrufus: Right, again, you insist creating a straw man to tear down rather than engaging my actual arguments.Kind of becoming a habit for you.

    I didn’t mention Lin in the post you’re replying to at all, but that didn’t stop you.

    It’s a much different thing to have .600 TS as the second or third option in the offense, which is what Amare was towards the end of last season.There’s no evidence he’s capable of 25+ ppg on 60% TS, which is kind of the only thing he’s ever been notable for.

    If he was still as good as he was in 2010, he’d be finishing at a better rate given the large reduction in volume.In 2010 he’d often finish in traffic after creating his own shot.The fact that he’s taking fewer and easier attempts without an increase in efficiency is just more evidence for what’s plain to everyone but you and a few Knick fans prone to wishful thinking – he’s in massive, inexorable, irreversible decline, and there’s no chance we’ll ever see anything close to even 2010 Amare, which was itself a pale shadow of his .200+ WS Phx days.

    Sure am glad we’re saving on…

    he doesn’t need to be Phoenix Amar’e to be incredibly effective on offense.

    You’re absolutely right in your argument. No one is supposing Amar’e will return to his Suns days with Nash, but we’re saying he’ll be one of the more efficient 4s in the league and should average close to 20ppg next year GIVEN the reduction in usage.

    With a focus on defense (which never happened with MDA but did with Woodson), you’re getting an excellent player. Not an elite big man, but close. Certainly good enough as the team’s third best player on a very deep team.

  164. ruruland

    dogrufus: Top 80?Seriously?Are there even 80 players that take a significant volume of shots in the post?

    Because this pretty much seems to support my thesis that Amare has no b2b game.

    Top 80 is very good. There are 400 players ranked in Synergy, and even those with far fewer post-attempts get a ranking. So much of that top 80 is made of guys who aren’t stars or even full-time rotational players. Anything in the top 150 is good.

  165. dogrufus

    Frank: So I know you are relatively new to this board, but usually we try to cite some evidence before making categorical statements. As a matter of fact, Amare looked very much like his Phoenix self (at least statistically) after he came back from the All Star Break – specifically, he averaged 20 points and 9 rebounds per 36, with a TS of 60. His usage was lower in this offense, which is why his pts/36 were down, but the efficiency was there. He finished at the rim with a better FG% than most of his years in PHX.So that Amare already came back.

    Is he going to be athletically the same as the 22 year old Amare that terrorized the league with Nash?No – but his jumper is better, and he has more than 1 move.I think he’ll be very good next year.

    Amare’s TS% the last 5 years:
    .656, .617, .615, .565, .541

    Yes, I’m the one who ignores evidence. There’s no clear, unmistakeable trend here that anyone with eyes could see.

    Youre perfectly right, we should take a few weeks of okay efficiency at reduced volume at the end of the season over five years of steady, consistent, massive decline. How could I be so biased?

    Clearly you, the one expecting a return to age 27 form from our injury-prone, completely athleticism-dependent star after his 30th birthday, are the reasonable one here.

  166. dogrufus

    ruruland: Top 80 is very good. There are 400 players ranked in Synergy, and even those with far fewer post-attempts get a ranking. So much of that top 80 is made of guys who aren’t stars or even full-time rotational players. Anything in the top 150 is good.

    Probably 250 of those ranked must not be big men then. I’d guess most of the top rankings are populated by big men. For a big men to not even be in the top 50, he’s probably a pretty shitty post player.

    Post play is not an evenly distributed skill in the NBA. Most players rarely or never attempt shots in the post. If I said someone was a top 80 3pt shooter, would you be impressed?

  167. dogrufus

    ruruland: he doesn’t need to be Phoenix Amar’e to be incredibly effective on offense.

    You’re absolutely right in your argument. No one is supposing Amar’e will return to his Suns days with Nash, but we’re saying he’ll be one of the more efficient 4s in the league and should average close to 20ppg next year GIVEN the reduction in usage.

    With a focus on defense (which never happened with MDA but did with Woodson), you’re getting an excellent player. Not an elite big man, but close. Certainly good enough as the team’s third best player on a very deep team.

    So we should be happy we’re getting a non-elite big man for the bargain price of $20+ million? Amare’s salary was irrelevant when Dolan was willing to pay any price to compete, but now that he’s not, isn’t he just a giant millstone preventing us from having any flexibility?

    Amare sucks at everything but scoring so much that the only way he can even hope to justify his salary is to be a super elite efficiency, high volume scorer. Now that ownership is no longer using its advantage of having infinite money, Amare’s lack of production commensurate with his contract will be all the more crippling.

  168. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL:
    Tell Tyrus Thomas the old Amar’e is gone and will never be back lol

    I’m sure he already knows, being an NBA player whose seen him play an

    ruruland: I’ll go over the spot numbers in a bit, but the Knicks should be good in that area with Kidd (above average) Melo (above average), Felton (average), Novak (best in NBA), Smith (elite)……

    I’ll post his three year numbers here shortly

    Felton average? The guy who shot .305 last season? Kidd above average? The guy who was 35% last season and only takes wide open shots? How well did Bibby’s shooting hold up when he got insanely old? Isn’t Kidd’s game falling off a cliff the most predictable outcome in the world here? Does it really matter if Melo is average? He can’t exactly pass out of double teams to himself.

    There are exactly 2 above average shooters on this team and neither of them will start. There’s zero reason to expect we will hit above 35% as a team.

  169. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: Probably 250 of those ranked must not be big men then.I’d guess most of the top rankings are populated by big men.For a big men to not even be in the top 50, he’s probably a pretty shitty post player.

    Post play is not an evenly distributed skill in the NBA.Most players rarely or never attempt shots in the post.If I said someone was a top 80 3pt shooter, would you be impressed?

    Considering the 80th best 3pt shooter by % last season shot 36% yeah I would be pretty impressed by the 80th best 3pt shooter in the NBA. If you take out qualifications the 80th best 3pt shooter by % shot .377% which is even more impressive.

  170. BigBlueAL

    You must not be that big a Knick fan or didnt watch all the games last season if you didnt get why I referenced Tyrus Thomas. Last game of the season Tyrus got a pretty good view of Amar’e still having his ability to jump.

    Im not saying one play is an example he still is his 25 yo self but Amar’e still has plenty left in the tank.

  171. ephus

    BigBlueAl,

    In fairness, I do not think that willingness to sit through a meaningless Knicks/Charlotte game on the last day of the regular season is the best barometer of Knick fandom. I recall watching the game (and the play you are referencing) and silently scolding myself for not having something better to do.

  172. SeeWhyDee77

    Nice. I love this signing. I can see Brewer filling a Sefalosha type role…as long as he can up his 3 pt percentage up to around 33%. Now with Chandler, Camby, Thomas, Shumpert, Brewer, Kidd, an Felton…we should have really good perimeter and interior D

  173. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    ruruland: And doesn’t THCJ think it still values shot creation too much. That Evans is still undervalued by the metric. Hilarious.

    Win Shares, dipshit.

  174. BigBlueAL

    ephus:
    BigBlueAl,

    In fairness, I do not think that willingness to sit through a meaningless Knicks/Charlotte game on the last day of the regular season is the best barometer of Knick fandom.I recall watching the game (and the play you are referencing) and silently scolding myself for not having something better to do.

    Our seed was still up in the air so the game did have some meaning if I remember correctly.

    Since he quoted my Tyrus Thomas comment and obviously had no clue why I mentioned him I figured Id respond in jest.

  175. EB

    I think it is a pretty well known fact that Amare struggled not because of a decrease in athleticism but missing his jumpshot, which is in no way an indicator of declining athleticism.

  176. ruruland

    dogrufus: Name 3 point guard rotations worse please.

    It should be rather obvious that adding an above average starter to a PG rotation while losing nothing will significantly improve its quality since you can move the former start to the backup slot.

    I didn’t say we’re doomed to the lottery without Lin.I said we’re doomed to being a maxed out <55 win team perpetually one piece away.

    There is virtual consensus on this board on the idea of Lin being an upside and flexibility piece, as well as a better pg than both Felton and Kidd — but worst duo in the NBA?????????????????????????

    Two years ago Dallas won an NBA championship with Kidd and Barrea as their 1/2 point guard, and Jason Terry isn’t exactly a penetrating two guard.

    Out of playoff teams last year, I think Felton/Kidd is comparable or better than Chalmers/Cole, Collison/George,Harris/Watson, Sessions/Blake, Kidd/Roddy B, Teague/Hinrich, Nelson/Duhon

  177. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Juany8: The rebounds aren’t even that big a problem, it’s the way the stat handles offense. Low usage players don’t get many turnovers per minute (which are primarily a function of how long you have the ball), which is why so many of the obvious outliers are super low usage players. Next, Wins Produced treats going 1-2 with no Ft’s for 3 points the same as going 10-20 for 30 points. It’s pretty damn obvious which game is better to everyone ever, except the Wins Produced crowd apperently (not that I think Wins Shares does much better on the subject)

    Even more glaring than the offensive inconsistencies are the stat’s defensive issues. Basically Wins Produced assumes that when a 5 man unit gets a certain defensive rating, all 5 guys contributed exactly the same to the defense. By this logic, Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire are 100% equal defenders when they are out on the court together. I don’t know how someone can be aware of that and still agree with anything WP has to say

    You really have never read about Wins Produced and you have no idea what you’re talking about.

  178. EB

    I assume JR will get most of the minutes at the 2 guard which by itself will make our 3 point shooting much better than last years’ team.

    Also maybe Woodson won’t require us to shoot 3′s on every possession this year despite being 21st in shooting them last year. Maybe now only good shooters will actually shoot them this year. For example none of guards from last year will be shooting.

  179. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL: Our seed was still up in the air so the game did have some meaning if I remember correctly.

    Since he quoted my Tyrus Thomas comment and obviously had no clue why I mentioned him I figured Id respond in jest.

    I did see that game, I just didn’t think you’d actually think one play was notable enough to cite against a mountain of statistical evidence.

  180. ruruland

    dogrufus: So we should be happy we’re getting a non-elite big man for the bargain price of $20+ million?Amare’s salary was irrelevant when Dolan was willing to pay any price to compete, but now that he’s not, isn’t he just a giant millstone preventing us from having any flexibility?

    Amare sucks at everything but scoring so much that the only way he can even hope to justify his salary is to be a super elite efficiency, high volume scorer.Now that ownership is no longer using its advantage of having infinite money, Amare’s lack of production commensurate with his contract will be all the more crippling.

    We all know that. The team is still well above the tax and outspends pretty much every team in the NBA. We all loathe Dolan, but this was not a referendum on Amar’e.

    We were discussing his ability to be a very efficient player next year and one of the better power forwards in the game next season……

    And excuse me for my earleir post, Amar’e was the 14th!! ranked post player in 2010-2011 with 236 post plays.

    That’s not to say he’s better than Dwight, Bynum or Gasol, guys he ranked higher than, perhaps not close, but he certainly has the ability to get baskets with his b2b, typically off of an iso move to get deep position .

    It looks different than a typical post play with a post entry pass, but he still gets the job done, though without shot creating doubles.

  181. ruruland

    dogrufus: Amare’s TS% the last 5 years:
    .656, .617, .615, .565, .541

    Yes, I’m the one who ignores evidence.There’s no clear, unmistakeable trend here that anyone with eyes could see.

    Youre perfectly right, we should take a few weeks of okay efficiency at reduced volume at the end of the season over five years of steady, consistent, massive decline.How could I be so biased?

    Clearly you, the one expecting a return to age 27 form from our injury-prone, completely athleticism-dependent star after his 30th birthday, are the reasonable one here.

    You’re wrong. The greatest reason for Amar’e's efficiency declines the last two years has been distribution of shots. His rate of isolations and post-ups went up significantly after leaving Phoenix, and his rate of roll plays went down — almost in exact proportion to his TS% declines.

    He’s still a good iso player, but obviously not on Melo’s level, certainly when we take into account passing and attention creation.

    So, leave that to Melo when it’s needed. Get his distribution more in line with his Phoenix days, which he can certainly do with Kidd/Felton.

  182. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: I did see that game, I just didn’t think you’d actually think one play was notable enough to cite against a mountain of statistical evidence.

    This coming from someone who is sure Kidd only signed with the Knicks to get another contract and is sure Kidd wouldnt mind if he didnt play in another NBA game again.

  183. ruruland

    dogrufus: I’m sure he already knows, being an NBA player whose seen him play an

    Felton average?The guy who shot .305 last season?Kidd above average?The guy who was 35% last season and only takes wide open shots?How well did Bibby’s shooting hold up when he got insanely old?Isn’t Kidd’s game falling off a cliff the most predictable outcome in the world here?Does it really matter if Melo is average?He can’t exactly pass out of double teams to himself.

    There are exactly 2 above average shooters on this team and neither of them will start.There’s zero reason to expect we will hit above 35% as a team.

    The Mavericks could not keep Kidd off the floor despite his lack of ability to shot create on a team that needed it (and Roddy B is certainly better at that). Kidd’s 3pt shot decline is actually pretty much in line with the rate of average decline for the rest of the league.

    Kidd’s skill-set typically has a very long NBA shelf-life. We won’t be asking him to play 30 mpg, and his 3pt shots are going to be the kind that retired NBA players can make in their 60s.

    Bibby is a guy who needs lift on his shot, hence the steep decline. Kidd shoots more of set-shot, per se. That’s why he needs space to get it off. But he’s a genius at creating space for himself and teammates through ball movement– that’s never been a problem.

  184. Bruno Almeida

    ruruland: You’re wrong. The greatest reason for Amar’e’s efficiency declines the last two years has been distribution of shots. His rate of isolations and post-ups went up significantly after leaving Phoenix, and his rate of roll plays went down — almost in exact proportion to his TS% declines.

    He’s still a good iso player, but obviously not on Melo’s level, certainly when we take into account passing and attention creation.

    So, leave that to Melo when it’s needed. Get his distribution more in line with his Phoenix days, which he can certainly do with Kidd/Felton.

    if you can’t see the ‘slight’ difference from 2005 Nash to Fatty Felton and 40-year old Kidd, well, that explains why you think this team is surely a contender.

    I’m so anxious to watch again Felton chucking 18-footers with 16 seconds on the shot clock, such good memories.

  185. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    ruruland: Landry Fields > Rajon Rondo

    The end.

    Well, I guess we can rule out WP48 as an accurate indicator of value since ruruland says so.

  186. ephus

    At the risk of restarting the Lin flame wars, here is the latest from Jeremy about how the final Rocket offer sheet came into being:

    First, they were going to pay him about $9 million in each of the final two years, but then they made it $14.8 million in the third year. But Lin said he had nothing to do with that.

    “I didn’t go back to them and ask for more money,” Lin said. “It wasn’t like they gave me the choice to sign one of the two and I chose the one that would hurt the Knicks. I had one contract offer. That was it.”

    I do not know if Lin’s people orchestrated the increased offer with Morey, or if Morey came up with it on his own. But I am certain that if Dolan reacted out of anger to the increased offer and told Grunwald not to match because he was angry that Lin had not shown enough gratitude, it was incredibly short-sighted and foolish. If I were running the Knicks, I would have matched Lin at any price for 3 years. I also would have offered Lin the full MLE with a player option for year 4. But, if the Knicks were going to have a breaking point, they needed to have a matrix plotted out before hand, so that the decision was made on substance and not emotion.

  187. Bruno Almeida

    ephus:
    At the risk of restarting the Lin flame wars, here is the latest from Jeremy about how the final Rocket offer sheet came into being:

    I do not know if Lin’s people orchestrated the increased offer with Morey, or if Morey came up with it on his own.But I am certain that if Dolan reacted out of anger to the increased offer and told Grunwald not to match because he was angry that Lin had not shown enough gratitude, it was incredibly short-sighted and foolish.If I were running the Knicks, I would have matched Lin at any price for 3 years.I also would have offered Lin the full MLE with a player option for year 4.But, if the Knicks were going to have a breaking point, they needed to have a matrix plotted out before hand, so that the decision was made on substance and not emotion.

    well, since it’s Dolan, I’ll go with the “short-sighted and foolish” alternative anytime.

  188. ruruland

    EB:
    I assume JR will get most of the minutes at the 2 guard which by itself will make our 3 point shooting much better than last years’ team.

    Also maybe Woodson won’t require us to shoot 3?s on every possession this year despite being 21st in shooting them last year. Maybe now only good shooters will actually shoot them this year. For example none of guards from last year will be shooting.

    Let’s remember that the Knicks ranked 21st in 3pt shooting and 17th in spot-ups with Fields, Douglas, Davis and Bibby combining for near 3,000 minutes (and shooting well under 30% from 3 and likely combining to form the worst spot up quartet in the NBA).

    Smith and Novak combined for 1000 fewer minutes. So, you’re right, replacing those minutes with those two and Kidd and Felton (superior to the others from last season), you’ll see a nice rise in both spot-ups and 3pt %…..

    And if Melo and Amar’e do what I and others think they’ll do this year, the Knicks should have an above average 3pt and spot-up team.

  189. Unreason

    dogrufus: Whatever we have must always be compared against that: against the true elite caliber team we could have been

    Doesn’t this perspective pretty much guarantee disappointment and unhappiness? Reality falls short of imagined ideals. Focusing exclusively on that makes it hard to see the stuff that’s legitimately worth celebrating. It’s like buying a stock low and selling high but instead of being glad at the payoff, being pissed because of not selling at the absolute peak. Plus, no one knows what kind of team the Knicks would have been with Lin. So its more like being pissed at selling below some completely imagined future peak price. I’m not trying to tell you how to be a fan. If that’s your style, go for it. But if there’s good stuff going on and all you want to talk about is how it’s not as good as it could have been, you’re going to come across as needlessly cranky.

  190. ruruland

    Bruno Almeida: if you can’t see the ‘slight’ difference from 2005 Nash to Fatty Felton and 40-year old Kidd,well, that explains why you think this team is surely a contender.

    I’m so anxious to watch again Felton chucking 18-footers with 16 seconds on the shot clock, such good memories.

    Felton is prone to bad shots on occasion, but his fga/per 36 was at a career peak with NYK in SOS/4-out MDA offense.

    That’s what MDA teaches. if the intial pnr isn’t there and the side pnr isn’t there after the rotation, shoot it if you’re open.

    His normal fga per 36 is pretty average for pgs. more in line with Lawson and Miller than with Westbrook.

    Secondly, Felton gets good penetration, though he misses shots at the rim and doesn’t get fouled. He’s actually an average spot-up shooter, and he should get more spot-up opps with Melo.

    I think there’s a good chance he sets a career mark in efficiency with more off-ball opportunities and a fastbreak starter in Kidd.

    There should be very good shot creation balance next season, though not as good as it COULD have been with Lin of course.

  191. BigBlueAL

    ephus, I dont think its a war here between people thinking the Knicks shouldve kept Lin and those who think they shouldnt have. Everyone here is in agreement that letting Lin go for nothing was incredibly stupid.

    Now how big an impact it will have on the team with replacing him with Felton instead and how good a player Lin is and will be is another debate.

  192. BigBlueAL

    Unreason: Doesn’t this perspective pretty much guarantee disappointment and unhappiness? Reality falls short of imagined ideals. Focusing exclusively on that makes it hard to see the stuff that’s legitimately worth celebrating. It’s like buying a stock low and selling high but instead of being glad at the payoff, being pissed because of not selling at the absolute peak. Plus, no one knows what kind of team the Knicks would have been with Lin. So its more like being pissed at selling below some completely imagined future peak price. I’m not trying to tell you how to be a fan. If that’s your style, go for it. But if there’s good stuff going on and all you want to talk about is how it’s not as good as it could have been, you’re going to come across as needlessly cranky.

    Amen.

  193. ruruland

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Well, I guess we can rule out WP48 as an accurate indicator of value since ruruland says so.

    Or anyone who disagrees with Fields> Rondo, which is everybody but the cultists on world of warcraft, er, wages of wins or whatever the fuck it’s called.

  194. ruruland

    Bruno Almeida: if you can’t see the ‘slight’ difference from 2005 Nash to Fatty Felton and 40-year old Kidd,well, that explains why you think this team is surely a contender.

    I’m so anxious to watch again Felton chucking 18-footers with 16 seconds on the shot clock, such good memories.

    I trust you’ve watched enough basketball that if you sat down and watched the Mavericks from last year you could appreciate why Carlisle had a hard time keeping the old man off the court despite his inability to guard point guards or get penetration for scores.

    Once again, and go read the piece I posted from Moneyball or Rosen’s report, the guy is still an elite passer who creates great offense in all phases of the game, especially when he’s surrounded with talent. And the Knicks supporting cast is more offensively talented than that of either of the last two Mavs teams.

  195. Bruno Almeida

    ruruland: Felton is prone to bad shots on occasion, but his fga/per 36 was at a career peak with NYK in SOS/4-out MDA offense.

    That’s what MDA teaches. if the intial pnr isn’t there and the side pnr isn’t there after the rotation, shoot it if you’re open.

    His normal fga per 36 is pretty average for pgs. more in line with Lawson and Miller than with Westbrook.

    Secondly, Felton gets good penetration, though he misses shots at the rim and doesn’t get fouled. He’s actually an average spot-up shooter, and he should get more spot-up opps with Melo.

    I think there’s a good chance he sets a career mark in efficiency with more off-ball opportunities and a fastbreak starter in Kidd.

    There should be very good shot creation balance next season, though not as good as it COULD have been with Lin of course.

    what always irritates me with Felton is how he’s irrationally confident, he really seems to think he’s one of the top 5 point guards in the league… that’s a good aspect in some players, mainly 6th man types, like Terry or J.R, but that’s terrible when the guy is your starting point guard.

    if he lowers his weight, plays hard defense (like he’s very capable of doing) and initiates the offense on the pick and roll decently, and keeps his FGA where it should be (imo, 4th on the team, behind Melo, Amare and J.R), that’s good enough.

    I’d still rather have Lin, but that’s gone already and there’s no point discussing that.

    however, even if Felton really can be as effective as you think (and I agree with you that Kidd will be good), there’s just no way Amare will be getting feed like he was in Phoenix with Nash, Nash’s play during those years was magical, MVP level basketball.

    I do believe Amare will be better, but I have absolutely no hope he’ll ever be good enough anymore to make up for his ridiculous salary.

  196. dogrufus

    Kidd 2 years ago had a PER of 14.4, which was a career low, until last season’s 13.1. Next season he’ll make another drop, probably even a bigger one. The guy is a 38 year old NBA PG. He’s going to fall off a cliff literally ANY second.

    Just for kicks, here it goes by PER (YES I KNOW PER HAS FLAWS):

    ’13 NYK
    Felton 13.4
    Kidd 13.1

    That figure for Kidd is highly optimistic, it’ll probably be closer to 11 or 12.

    ’11 MAVS
    Kidd 14.4
    Barea 14.8

    Look at that, this terrible PG team had two PGs better than our best.

    INDY
    Collison 13.4
    Hill 15.7

    Both better than both our PGs. They actually traded Collison away but picked up DJ Augustin (14.1).

    UTAH
    Harris 16.0
    Watson 9.5

    Well, Harris is a lot better than either of our guards, but at least their backup PG is maybe worse than Kidd will be next year! Seriously though Watson did have a down year and is only 32, so hes a much better bet to bounce back. They got rid of Harris and next year will have Mo Williams (15.0), who is also significantly better than both our PGs.

    LAL
    Sessions 16.7
    Blake 8.5

    Sessions is a LOT better than either of our PGs, and delivers about a level of production we might have expected from Lin. Blake had an uncharacteristically terrible year shooting the ball (.335 from 3, only time below 37% in 9 yrs). Of course they got Nash so obviously much better than us going forward.

    ATL
    Teague 15.8
    Hinrich 9.5

    Teague is a lot better than both our PGs. Hinrich sucks, but they got Devin Harris (16.0) and kept Teague, so they now have 2 PGs far better than ours.

    ORL
    Nelson 14.6
    Duhon 8.4

    Nelson’s better than both our starters, but Duhon does suck. They got Ish Smith (13.1), who will probably be their backup this season. This is the closest PG rotation to being as bad as ours, but it’s still better.

    HEAT
    Chalmers 12.9
    Cole 7…

  197. dogrufus

    So the Heat PGs do come out worse, and it looks like they’re the only ones in the league who do… I guess all we have to do to win a championship and let our superstar SF play point forward!

    That should work out well, right?

  198. dogrufus

    So the Heat PGs do come out worse, and it looks like they’re the only ones in the league who do… I guess all we have to do to win a championship with such terrible PG play is let our superstar SF play point forward!

    That should work out well, right?

  199. Bruno Almeida

    ruruland: I trust you’ve watched enough basketball that if you sat down and watched the Mavericks from last year you could appreciate why Carlisle had a hard time keeping the old man off the court despite his inability to guard point guards or get penetration for scores.

    Once again, and go read the piece I posted from Moneyball or Rosen’s report, the guy is still an elite passer who creates great offense in all phases of the game, especially when he’s surrounded with talent. And the Knicks supporting cast is more offensively talented than that of either of the last two Mavs teams.

    hey, I loved the Kidd signing and I think he’ll be a terrific option for this team.

    all I’m saying is that he will never help Amare in the way Nash did back in Phoenix, because his playing style now is much, much different from the pick and roll artistry of Nash in those times.

    he’ll help Amare, and so will Felton, but he’ll never get the same quality of passes he got with Nash with those 2 pgs.

  200. jon abbey

    BigBlueAL:
    Everyone here is in agreement that letting Lin go for nothing was incredibly stupid.

    I am not in agreement with this, for the record. I think that Lin is better than Felton and Kidd in a vacuum, but we’re not talking about a vacuum, we’re talking about how he would fit with the rest of this already locked in roster, and I am far from certain that Lin/Felton/Kidd would be a better fit for this team than Felton/Kidd/Prigioni.

    I hate to agree with Thomas B on anything, including that the sky is blue, but on this I believe we’re in agreement.

  201. Bruno Almeida

    dude, no, Felton and Kidd is not one of the worse PG rotations in the league, there are far worse ones.

    and if you think Devin Harris, Darren Collison, Jameer Nelson or Ramon freaking Sessions are so much better than Felton and Kidd, you are absolutely crazy.

  202. BigBlueAL

    jon abbey: I am not in agreement with this, for the record. I think that Lin is better than Felton and Kidd in a vacuum, but we’re not talking about a vacuum, we’re talking about how he would fit with the rest of this already locked in roster, and I am far from certain that Lin/Felton/Kidd would be a better fit for this team than Felton/Kidd/Prigioni.

    I hate to agree with Thomas B on anything, including that the sky is blue, but on this I believe we’re in agreement.

    Im pretty sure if they kept Lin they wouldnt have gotten Felton. Its pretty obvious the Felton move was made once they decided not to keep Lin. I agree with you that Lin/Felton/Kidd wouldve possibly caused problems due to the minutes.

  203. dogrufus

    ruruland: We all know that. The team is still well above the tax and outspends pretty much every team in the NBA. We all loathe Dolan, but this was not a referendum on Amar’e.

    We were discussing his ability to be a very efficient player next year and one of the better power forwards in the game next season……

    And excuse me for my earleir post, Amar’e was the 14th!! ranked post player in 2010-2011 with 236 post plays.

    That’s not to say he’s better than Dwight, Bynum or Gasol, guys he ranked higher than, perhaps not close, but he certainly has the ability to get baskets with his b2b, typically off of an iso move to getdeep position .

    It looks different than a typical post play with a post entry pass, but he still gets the job done, though without shot creating doubles.

    Exactly… The stuff he did that was categorized as post play was really him doing iso moves to create space… Exactly the kind of iso moves he showed many times he no longer had the quickness and explosiveness to execute this season. Even if he was physically the same, it’d probably be much harder for him to have the same kind of effectiveness doing that with Chandler crowding the paint.

    Actual b2b post play, which draws doubles and forces defenses to rotate well, is a far different beast.

    That’s the problem with Amar’e. In order to create the conditions necessary for him to thrive on offense, you basically can’t have Tyson Chandler out there, which for us means we can’t have an above average defense. If you aren’t creating said conditions, he’s a slightly above average, 20 million dollar millstone.

  204. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL: This coming from someone who is sure Kidd only signed with the Knicks to get another contract and is sure Kidd wouldnt mind if he didnt play in another NBA game again.

    Yeah, it’s not like anything in his off-the-court conduct lately would suggest he’s letting himself go.

    I just make stuff up.

  205. EB

    dogrufus: I am not in agreement with this, for the record. I think that Lin is better than Felton and Kidd in a vacuum, but we’re not talking about a vacuum, we’re talking about how he would fit with the rest of this already locked in roster, and I am far from certain that Lin/Felton/Kidd would be a better fit for this team than Felton/Kidd/Prigioni.

    So these point guards shoot more than ours do? Thats all PER says really. Plus Ruru was just listing tandems that made the playoffs

  206. BigBlueAL

    It will be pretty impossible for Amar’e to live up to his 20mil salary but he could still be a very good player which is all Im hoping for. Even last season with his diminished efficiency he wasnt exactly a scrub (his WS/48 was .128).

    In regards to his salary like Melo likes to say “It is what it is”. Cant continue to harp on it.

  207. ruruland

    Bruno Almeida: hey, I loved the Kidd signing and I think he’ll be a terrific option for this team.

    all I’m saying is that he will never help Amare in the way Nash did back in Phoenix, because his playing style now is much, much different from the pick and roll artistry of Nash in those times.

    he’ll help Amare, and so will Felton, but he’ll never get the same quality of passes he got with Nash with those 2 pgs.

    Of course this is true, but we’re not looking for .650+ TS on 25ppg like Nash provided amare….

    Kidd is a solid pnr passer but Amar’e is really good at getting the ball on the move in semi-transition from about 10-12 feet away — one of Kidd’s specialties.

    Amar’e has great body control in that range and with a full head of steam

  208. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: Yeah, it’s not like anything in his off-the-court conduct lately would suggest he’s letting himself go.

    I just make stuff up.

    So him getting drunk at a party and crashing his car 2 months before training camp starts is a sign he doesnt want to play basketball anymore??

  209. Bruno Almeida

    I love how people are self-righteous when talking about players…

    pretty much all under-40 men I know have already driven while drunk, and that’s ok, but when Kidd does it he’s suddenly the antichrist.

    I know he’s had issues with his ex-wife, but the hyposcrisy is astonishing.

  210. dogrufus

    Unreason: Doesn’t this perspective pretty much guarantee disappointment and unhappiness? Reality falls short of imagined ideals. Focusing exclusively on that makes it hard to see the stuff that’s legitimately worth celebrating. It’s like buying a stock low and selling high but instead of being glad at the payoff, being pissed because of not selling at the absolute peak. Plus, no one knows what kind of team the Knicks would have been with Lin. So its more like being pissed at selling below some completely imagined future peak price. I’m not trying to tell you how to be a fan. If that’s your style, go for it. But if there’s good stuff going on and all you want to talk about is how it’s not as good as it could have been, you’re going to come across as needlessly cranky.

    The signing of Lin wasn’t an imagined ideal. It was akin to decidiing to call when you have pocket aces and the other guy pushes all in. We decided to fold.

    If this was just one isolated incident of staggering incompetence crippling the franchise you might have a point. But it’s been a consistent pattern for all of Dolan’s tenure, so to be blunt, take your Garden apologism and shove it.

  211. dogrufus

    ruruland: Felton is prone to bad shots on occasion, but his fga/per 36 was at a career peak with NYK in SOS/4-out MDA offense.

    That’s what MDA teaches. if the intial pnr isn’t there and the side pnr isn’t there after the rotation, shoot it if you’re open.

    His normal fga per 36 is pretty average for pgs. more in line with Lawson and Miller than with Westbrook.

    Secondly, Felton gets good penetration, though he misses shots at the rim and doesn’t get fouled. He’s actually an average spot-up shooter, and he should get more spot-up opps with Melo.

    I think there’s a good chance he sets a career mark in efficiency with more off-ball opportunities and a fastbreak starter in Kidd.

    There should be very good shot creation balance next season, though not as good as it COULD have been with Lin of course.

    How great it must be to be ruruland. Every player on your team is just chomping at the bit to set a career mark in efficiency next season. Surely Felton’s 8 years of shitty efficiency will magically come to an end. Since you’ve basically already chalked up Amare and Melo for .600+ TS, and we know Chandler is good for .650+, you must have us running a top 5 offense!

  212. ruruland

    dogrufus: Exactly… The stuff he did that was categorized as post play was really him doing iso moves to create space…Exactly the kind of iso moves he showed many times he no longer had the quickness and explosiveness to execute this season.Even if he was physically the same, it’d probably be much harder for him to have the same kind of effectiveness doing that with Chandler crowding the paint.

    Actual b2b post play, which draws doubles and forces defenses to rotate well, is a far different beast.

    That’s the problem with Amar’e.In order to create the conditions necessary for him to thrive on offense, you basically can’t have Tyson Chandler out there, which for us means we can’t have an above average defense.If you aren’t creating said conditions, he’s a slightly above average, 20 million dollar millstone.

    Well, regardless, it’s a move that is not created by another player and it occurs with his b2b.

    And Amar’e numbers were still great with Shaq in the middle.

    He’ll still be getting 20 minutes a game or so (hopefully) where a perimeter center is in the game (Camby)

  213. ephus

    I agree that the Knicks should have matched the offer sheet to Lin. But the Knicks had to have step 2 in the plan. Either they were cool with paying the tax (which would be fine with me), or they had to figure that they would trade one or more of the big 4 pieces before next season. I would have tried to move Chandler & Lin for Iguodola & Turner (Iguodoloa’s expiring after 2014).

  214. Bruno Almeida

    ruruland: Of course this is true, but we’re not looking for .650+ TS on 25ppg like Nash provided amare….

    Kidd is a solid pnr passer but Amar’e is really good at getting the ball on the move in semi-transition from about 10-12 feet away — one of Kidd’s specialties.

    Amar’e has great body control in that range and with a full head of steam

    well, if my team is paying 20+ mil a year for a 7-footer who’s a pretty bad rebounder, terrible defender and gets injured pretty often, yes, I’m looking for .650+ TS%.

    as usual, I hope you’re right in every aspect of your arguments, and I’m more optimistic than last year because Grunwald is a genius, but still…

  215. dogrufus

    Bruno Almeida:
    dude, no, Felton and Kidd is not one of the worse PG rotations in the league, there are far worse ones.

    and if you think Devin Harris, Darren Collison, Jameer Nelson or Ramon freaking Sessions are so much better than Felton and Kidd, you are absolutely crazy.

    Yeah, I must have made up all that crazy statistical evidence I posted of all of those guys being better than both of our PG’s.

    But surely your uninformed, Dolan-fellating drivel should be given credence over actual numbers.

  216. Thomas B.

    We could have been a 65 win team, the kind of team that’s a FAVORITE for the finals.Instead we’re a maxed out 50-55 win team, the kind that wins a series or two.

    65 wins?! Um you do know the NBA didn’t expand the schedule to 100 games in the new CBA right?

  217. dogrufus

    EB: So these point guards shoot more than ours do? Thats all PER says really. Plus Ruru was just listing tandems that made the playoffs

    I’m pretty sure all or nearly all of them score a lot more efficiently while also shooting more.

    Apparently, ability to put the ball into the basket is a pretty useful ability in your most important offensive players. Who knew?

  218. Bruno Almeida

    dogrufus: Yeah, I must have made up all that crazy statistical evidence I posted of all of those guys being better than both of our PG’s.

    But surely your uninformed, Dolan-fellating drivel should be given credence over actual numbers.

    man, if PER is good statistical evidence, then I’m Justin Bieber.

  219. ruruland

    dogrufus: How great it must be to be ruruland.Every player on your team is just chomping at the bit to set a career mark in efficiency next season.Surely Felton’s 8 years of shitty efficiency will magically come to an end.Since you’ve basically already chalked up Amare and Melo for .600+ TS, and we know Chandler is good for .650+, you must have us running a top 5 offense!

    yeah, like I said, I think it’s likely that Chandler/Melo/Amare/Novak/Smith combine for 580-600 TS and around 80 ppg…..

    Even if you get below average efficiency from Shump, Brewer, Kidd, Felton and Camby, we’re talking about at least a top 10 offense, just as it was once the Knicks started playing Novak, acquired Smith and stopped playing Toney Douglas.

    Top 5 is definitely possible if things go well.

  220. dogrufus

    Thomas B.: 65 wins?! Um you do know the NBA didn’t expand the schedule to 100 games in the new CBA right?

    Great teams, the kind of team we’d have been if we’d kept Lin, have a chance to win that many games. We’re playing in an extremely weak conference where if we’d kept Lin and had our best possible season we could hit 65. Now I’d say that Number is around 55-57, pretty safely out of the range of contention for things like championships.

  221. ruruland

    dogrufus: I’m pretty sure all or nearly all of them score a lot more efficientlywhile also shooting more.

    Apparently, ability to put the ball into the basket is a pretty useful ability in your most important offensive players.Who knew?

    Well, it would take time to look at scoring efficiency, passing and defense on three year trends.

  222. BigBlueAL

    So rooting for this team and hoping they do good is proof that you must like Dolan and kiss his ass??

    I fucking hate Dolan and wish he sold the team tomorrow but it aint happening. Im not going to hope this team sucks just so Dolan doesnt get the satisfaction of owning a good team for once.

  223. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL:
    It will be pretty impossible for Amar’e to live up to his 20mil salary but he could still be a very good player which is all Im hoping for.Even last season with his diminished efficiency he wasnt exactly a scrub (his WS/48 was .128).

    In regards to his salary like Melo likes to say “It is what it is”.Cant continue to harp on it.

    When there’s 6 fat guys on the elevator and a baby gets on and exceeds the weight limit, we really have to 100% blame the baby? We can’t say anything to any of the fat guys?

  224. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: Great teams, the kind of team we’d have been if we’d kept Lin, have a chance to win that many games.We’re playing in an extremely weak conference where if we’d kept Lin and had our best possible season we could hit 65.Now I’d say that Number is around 55-57, pretty safely out of the range of contention for things like championships.

    Yeah, no team has ever come close to winning a championship having only won 55-57 games during the regular season.

  225. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL:
    So rooting for this team and hoping they do good is proof that you must like Dolan and kiss his ass??

    I fucking hate Dolan and wish he sold the team tomorrow but it aint happening.Im not going to hope this team sucks just so Dolan doesnt get the satisfaction of owning a good team for once.

    When did I say I hoped the team sucked? What I hope is irrelevant. I’ve said I think they’ll win 45-55.

    If I hope the team sucks it’s only so we can stop being Atlanta Hawks North with no chance of ever winning a championship, and rebuild through the draft like the next dynasty (OKC) did.

  226. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: When there’s 6 fat guys on the elevator and a baby gets on and exceeds the weight limit, we really have to 100% blame the baby?We can’t say anything to any of the fat guys?

    You come up with the worst analogies.

  227. Bruno Almeida

    dogrufus: Great teams, the kind of team we’d have been if we’d kept Lin, have a chance to win that many games.We’re playing in an extremely weak conference where if we’d kept Lin and had our best possible season we could hit 65.Now I’d say that Number is around 55-57, pretty safely out of the range of contention for things like championships.

    you do realize that no more than 2 years ago Dallas won 57 games on the regular season and won the championship?

    and the year before, the Lakers also won 57 and were champions?

    the Heat won in 2006 with 52 wins also…

    really, you’re just a troll and you have no idea what you’re saying.

  228. ruruland

    Bruno Almeida: well, if my team is paying 20+ mil a year for a 7-footer who’s a pretty bad rebounder, terrible defender and gets injured pretty often, yes, I’m looking for .650+ TS%.

    as usual, I hope you’re right in every aspect of your arguments, and I’m more optimistic than last year because Grunwald is a genius, but still…

    And Warkentein. Rest assured they both hated seeing Lin go.

    This is not about whether Amare deserves his contract. I remember when KMart got his max in Denver and Nuggets fans were fixated on how he fell short of earning it when he was a really valuable piece on those teams (IMO better than Camby, especially in the postseason)

  229. EB

    dogrufus: When there’s 6 fat guys on the elevator and a baby gets on and exceeds the weight limit, we really have to 100% blame the baby?We can’t say anything to any of the fat guys?

    Well in that metaphor the fat guys could get off the elevator, in this situation were stuck with the six fat guys. And were not blaming the baby were simply making a decision at the current moment which is that the baby can’t get on the elevator without exceeding the weight limit and the rest of the people can’t get off without taking back an equally fat person.

  230. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL: Yeah, no team has ever come close to winning a championship having only won 55-57 games during the regular season.

    Championships won by teams with less than 57 wins in the last 30 years: 4

    Championships won by teams with 57 or more: 26

    Which group would you rather be in?

    We had a choice this offseason to be in one or the other, and Dolan chose group 2.

  231. Bruno Almeida

    ruruland: And Warkentein. Rest assured they both hated seeing Lin go.

    This is not about whether Amare deserves his contract. I remember when KMart got his max in Denver and Nuggetsfans were fixated on how he fell short of earning it when he was a really valuable piece on those teams (IMO better than Camby, especially in the postseason)

    sure, he can be a valuable piece, he’ll never be worthy of the contract but well, nothing we can do about it.

    I keep coming back to that because I hate to even think we’ll be paying him 24 million in a couple of years to get some of the worse matador defense I ever saw in my life, but I do have to let it go lol.

  232. ruruland

    dogrufus: When did I say I hoped the team sucked?What I hope is irrelevant.I’ve said I think they’ll win 45-55.

    If I hope the team sucks it’s only so we can stop being Atlanta Hawks North with no chance of ever winning a championship, and rebuild through the draft like the next dynasty (OKC) did.

    Please. Chandler and Melo are clearly better players than Johnson/Smith… The Knicks are not Atlanta North, though that team has had some tough luck with injuries.

    Secondly, you know how many teams over the last 20 years tried to build a dynasty like OKC did. What are the odds of doing that?

    I’m not saying that’s not a route to go at some point, but not when you have a roster as talented as the Knicks with Chandler and Melo in their primes.

    You give it a ride, and if it comes up short like the ’90s Knicks, well, it was worth the ride, right?

  233. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL: So him getting drunk at a party and crashing his car 2 months before training camp starts is a sign he doesnt want to play basketball anymore??

    It’s probably a sign he doesn’t take basketball as seriously anymore/isn’t prioritizing professionalism and training like he ought to. Would this incident even be in Steve Nash’s range of possible outcomes? You wouldn’t even catch him eating a sugar cookie.

  234. dogrufus

    Bruno Almeida: man, if PER is good statistical evidence, then I’m Justin Bieber.

    Is TS% meaningless too? Because pretty much all those guys beat the shit out of both our PGs in it.

    PER has flaws, yes, but let us weigh it against the evidence you have offered to support your argument: fucking nothing.

    Yeah, I guess I’ll go with PER for now.

  235. EB

    Sessions TS% 535
    Collison TS% 526
    Nelson 524
    Teague 551
    Harris 564

    Most these guys aren’t exactly stellar and certainly not too much more effective than Felton when he was in New York. Nelson had an off year last year but Teague had an unprecedently good year his career TS% is 521.

  236. Bruno Almeida

    dogrufus: Is TS% meaningless too?Because pretty much all those guys beat the shit out of both our PGs in it.

    PER has flaws, yes, but let us weigh it against the evidence you have offered to support your argument:fucking nothing.

    Yeah, I guess I’ll go with PER for now.

    TS% on a vacuum, yes, it’s meaningless.

    Kidd’s contributions to a team aren’t possible to measure decently with the analytical tools we have, unfortunately.

    I’m a big believer in advanced stats, but using them on a vacuum or believing them without question is stupid.

  237. dogrufus

    ruruland: And Warkentein. Rest assured they both hated seeing Lin go.

    This is not about whether Amare deserves his contract. I remember when KMart got his max in Denver and Nuggetsfans were fixated on how he fell short of earning it when he was a really valuable piece on those teams (IMO better than Camby, especially in the postseason)

    That’s the killer aspect of all this. My faith in Knicks management has actually never been higher than it is now. Grunwald has shown himself to be sharp, creative, resourceful, and responsible. He’s made several moves that have flat out impressed me. But it’s all worthless because any time we get close to getting over the top, Dolan will just fuck it up.

    Why were those fans wrong to be fixated on that deal? That shitty contract was ultimately what likely cost Denver the flexibility/cap room to get Melo a legitimate no. 2 for most of his prime. The Melo Nuggets were a failure at building around their superstar lotto pick. If you’re going to commit to multiple max guys and not getting to the 60 win range, that’s a defeat to be rued, not a victory to be celebrated.

  238. EB

    dogrufus: Is TS% meaningless too?Because pretty much all those guys beat the shit out of both our PGs in it.

    PER has flaws, yes, but let us weigh it against the evidence you have offered to support your argument:fucking nothing.

    Yeah, I guess I’ll go with PER for now.

    FWIW Kidd is elite in WP so looking at it that way we are significantly better off. See I can site flawed statistics too!

  239. dogrufus

    EB:
    Sessions TS% 535
    Collison TS% 526
    Nelson 524
    Teague 551
    Harris564

    Most these guys aren’t exactly stellar and certainly not too much more effective than Felton when he was in New York. Nelson had an off year last year but Teague had an unprecedently good year his career TS% is 521.

    Collison also had a really bad year by his usual standards’. Teague’s still young enough that his breakout year was likely just him improving.

  240. Bruno Almeida

    if you use PER only, like dogrufus did, you get awesome stuff like Greg Monroe, Kenneth Faried and Paul Millsap all being better than Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Smith, James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Gasol, Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett, to name just a few.

    so to compare those PGs using PER only is absolutely useless.

  241. dogrufus

    EB: FWIW Kidd is elite in WP so looking at it that way we are significantly better off. See I can site flawed statistics too!

    Oh, okay. Well then we just have to make sure his elite production doesn’t decline. 39 year old PGs who’ve had microfracture surgery aren’t high risks to fall off a cliff, right?

    Nothing bad could come of signing such a player to a 3 year guaranteed deal for a significant portion of what we’d have paid Lin, right?

  242. ruruland

    dogrufus: That’s the killer aspect of all this.My faith in Knicks management has actually never been higher than it is now.Grunwald has shown himself to be sharp, creative, resourceful, and responsible.He’s made several moves that have flat out impressed me.But it’s all worthless because any time we get close to getting over the top, Dolan will just fuck it up.

    Why were those fans wrong to be fixated on that deal?That shitty contract was ultimately what likely cost Denver the flexibility/cap room to get Melo a legitimate no. 2 for most of his prime.The Melo Nuggets were a failure at building around their superstar lotto pick.If you’re going to commit to multiple max guys and not getting to the 60 win range, that’s a defeat to be rued, not a victory to be celebrated.

    trust me, I understand your argument and you make a nice case here. We all lament the loss of Lin and share our hatred of Dolan.

    All you can hope for at this point is that CAA starts to control the show… heheh, I kid, but that would actually lead to some good results in the short term, IMO.

    Let’s see if these guys can figure out that last move in the next two years.

  243. dogrufus

    Bruno Almeida:
    if you use PER only, like dogrufus did, you get awesome stuff like Greg Monroe, Kenneth Faried and Paul Millsap all being better than Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Smith, James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Gasol, Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett, to name just a few.

    so to compare those PGs using PER only is absolutely useless.

    Yes, I used a stats that has a few flaws, as you already pointed out.

    It’s still a lot more persuasive than the evidence you’ve offered: fucking nothing.

  244. dogrufus

    Bruno Almeida: you do realize that no more than 2 years ago Dallas won 57 games on the regular season and won the championship?

    and the year before, the Lakers also won 57 and were champions?

    the Heat won in 2006 with 52 wins also…

    really, you’re just a troll and you have no idea what you’re saying.

    Teams in the last 30 years that have won championships after winning less than 57 games: 4

    Teams that have won after winning 57+: 26

    Since this seems to be tough for you to understand let’s use something non-basketball related. There are 2600 pornstars with big penises, and 400 with small penises. If you were interested in being a pornstar, what size penis would you want to have?

  245. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: Championships won by teams with less than 57 wins in the last 30 years: 4

    Championships won by teams with 57 or more:26

    Which group would you rather be in?

    We had a choice this offseason to be in one or the other, and Dolan chose group 2.

    The win totals of the NBA champions from 2000 thru last season were 67, 56, 58, 60, 54, 59, 52, 58, 66, 65, 57 and 57.

    Your point was its a waste to be a team who wins 55-57 games because to be in championship contention you have to win closer to 65 games. 8 of the past 12 champions won less than 60 games.

    The win totals of the teams to lose in the NBA Finals in those seasons were 56, 56, 52, 49, 56, 54, 60, 50, 57, 59, 50 and 58.

    So yeah winning 55-57 games is good enough for me. Of course 65 would be better but building a 55-57 win team is enough to be a title contender.

  246. dogrufus

    ruruland: trust me, I understand your argument and you make a nice case here. We all lament the loss of Lin and share our hatred of Dolan.

    All you can hope for at this point is that CAA starts to control the show… heheh, I kid, but that would actually lead to some good results in the short term, IMO.

    Let’s see if these guys can figure out that last move in the next two years.

    See, this kills me too. The idea of CAA swooping in to deliver Paul would be a lot more believable if we’d retained Lin, giving us a PG asset that other teams would highly value even in excess of his basketball skills. Lin could have potentially been a major piece in a trade where we get Paul without giving up Chandler. Sterling is just the kind of cynical, money-grubbing owner that wouldn’t care that Paul is a lot better than Lin on the court. He’d just be happy to rake in billions selling Chinese fans Blake/Lin merchandise.

    Now, what asset are we possible going to give to land Paul? The only possibility is Chandler, and it’s an open question whether landing a 30 year old Paul in exchange for the reigning DPOY and one of the very few rock solid C’s would even help the team. How would we even possibly go about replacing Chandler with no picks? We’d be back to a no-defense, no rebounding team. Might as well even re-hire D’Antoni.

  247. dogrufus

    BigBlueAL: The win totals of the NBA champions from 2000 thru last season were 67, 56, 58, 60, 54, 59, 52, 58, 66, 65, 57 and 57.

    Your point was its a waste to be a team who wins 55-57 games because to be in championship contention you have to win closer to 65 games.8 of the past 12 champions won less than 60 games.

    The win totals of the teams to lose in the NBA Finals in those seasons were 56, 56, 52, 49, 56, 54, 60, 50, 57, 59, 50 and 58.

    So yeah winning 55-57 games is good enough for me.Of course 65 would be better but building a 55-57 win team is enough to be a title contender.

    You’re happy with being a fringe contender, when we could have been a strong contender at the cost of only Dolan’s pride. I’m not.

    In the 90′s we fell short but at least we knew management was doing everything it possibly could, instead of betting every chip but one then folding to a raise.

  248. ruruland

    dogrufus: See, this kills me too.The idea of CAA swooping in to deliver Paul would be a lot more believable if we’d retained Lin, giving us a PG asset that other teams would highly value even in excess of his basketball skills.Lin could have potentially been a major piece in a trade where we get Paul without giving up Chandler.Sterling is just the kind of cynical, money-grubbing owner that wouldn’t care that Paul is a lot better than Lin on the court.He’d just be happy to rake in billions selling Chinese fans Blake/Lin merchandise.

    Now, what asset are we possible going to give to land Paul?The only possibility is Chandler, and it’s an open question whether landing a 30 year old Paul in exchange for the reigning DPOY and one of the very few rock solid C’s would even help the team.How would we even possibly go about replacing Chandler with no picks?We’d be back to a no-defense, no rebounding team.Might as well even re-hire D’Antoni.

    Right, and CAA is not nearly as involved as it’s made out to be or would want to be from what I understand…..
    Look, their are some moves on the chess board we/cap experts didn’t see before, and we have ephus ;)…….

  249. Unreason

    dogrufus:…so to be blunt, take your Garden apologism and shove it.
    Don’t take it so personally. You make good points sometimes or I wouldn’t have bothered posting anything to you. Dial it back a bit.

    dogrufus /strong>: …The signing of Lin wasn’t an imagined ideal. It was akin to decidiing to call when you have pocket aces and the other guy pushes all in.
    True, the signing wasn’t an imagined ideal. It could really have happened and I wish it had. The imagined ideal was the elite team the Knicks would have become if he signed. I was definitely in favor of signing him. I was hoping he would prove to be as good as he seems capable of and would mesh well with Melo and Amare and would stay healthy, and all the other zillion things needed to create and sustain an elite team would fall into place.
    That’s a lot of ifs no? So that elite team wasn’t in the bag if we signed him. It was an imagined ideal. I imagined it too. I was disappointed by what seems like another Dolan screw up. But we’re talking about fans predicting the future performance of our favorite sports team relative to all the other teams in the NBA. That’s always based on hope as much as analysis or wisdom and is definitely never a certainty. Don’tcha think?

  250. ruruland

    Knicks 3 year spot numbers from 2009-2011)

    Amar’e: .95 (165th), .96 (180th), .81 (238th)

    Felton: .95 ppp (165th) 36.6% from 3, 1.06 (93rd), 1.25 (15th) 44% from 3, .99 (123rd) 33% from 3

    Melo: 1.01 (118th) 37.5% from 3, 1.23 (19th) 40% from 3, 1.11 (61st) 38% from 3, .91 (187th)

    Smith: 1.11 (59th) 38.2% from 3, 1.28 (8th) 46.6% from 3 !!, 1.07 (56th) 39% from 3

    Novak: 1.02 (101st) 31.9% from 3, 1.59 (3rd) 57% from 3!!, 1.51 (2nd) 54.4% from 3

    Kidd: 1.23 (10th) 43% from 3 (on 344 3pt spot up attempts),1.03 (118th) 35.7% from 3, .97 (140th) 34% from 3

    Brewer: .69 (338th) 27% from 3, .79 (278th) 36% from 3, .72 (288th) 28% from 3

  251. ruruland

    Remarks about spot-up numbers:

    The Knicks biggest offensive weakness last year was spot-up efficiency.

    Next year’s team should make a considerable jump in efficiency in this very important category.

    First, NY will likely dole out a much higher percentage of its minutes to Novak and Smith, who are probably the best spot-up combo in the game (how can you not be excited about this next year, remember what they did to Boston in April?)

    Second, Ray Felton is an average spot-up player, with the potential to be better when his offensive burden is decreased and open opps. increased as they were in Denver, where he was the 15th best spot up guy in the NBA.

    Third, Jason Kidd, despite a slip the last two years, is at the very least an average spot-up guy, and not far removed from being elite.

    Brewer is awful but won’t take many shots.

    The Knicks can become an elite spot-up team if Melo returns to the form he had in 2010-2011. Guess what one of his primary training goals is this off-season? Off-ball play.

    You saw what he did today against Spain in catch and shoot, and most of you know what kind of season I think he’s headed for in 2012-2013

    You can also see that Amar’e had a big slip, but chances are he rebounds given the substantial differences in off-season circumstances.

  252. dogrufus

    @Unreason:

    Sure, even if we’d sign Lin we were by no means guaranteed to be a truly elite team. A lot would still have to go right. Woodson would have to push the team hard without losing the locker room. Lin himself would have to avoid injury and play to the level I expect (55-56% TS 15/8/4/2 per game). Melo would have to give us his peak all-around season even while shouldering the burden of being “the guy.” Amare would have to return to at least some reasonable facsimile of his 2010 form, maybe trading a bit of explosiveness for some new moves learned from his training sessions with Olajuwon. Felton would have to excel in the role he was born to play: backup PG on a great team. Novak, Smith, and Kidd would have to hit their open threes. Shump and Brewer would have to lock down the Wades and Brons of the world.

    But it’s be possible. Even if one or two things went wrong I think we could try the Heat sorely in the ECF. I think winning could have been in the range.

    And now, it’s not. We have maybe the worst PG rotation in the NBA. All of our PGs have likely seen their best days. None can finish at the basket. None is a great shooter. None can shoot well off the dribble. The only team with arguably a worse PG rotation is the heat, and their real PG is LeBron James.

  253. Unreason

    ruruland: Remarks about spot-up numbers:

    Very good post and very exciting prospect if you’re right. Of the things you mention, the biggest question mark to me is Amare’s return to form. I don’t know what he’s doing to get that back but I hope it works.

  254. dogrufus

    Unreason: Very good post and very exciting prospect if you’re right. Of the things you mention, the biggest question mark to me is Amare’s return to form. I don’t know what he’s doing to get that back but I hope it works.

    Yeah, I know we shot amazingly bad like all of last season. Multiple shooters who were in the high 30′s last season nosediving like TD and Fields did has to be a big statistical anomaly. That was one of the reasons, along with our good young PG prospect and the improbable bird rights ruling, that had me so excited about this season.

    Goddammit. Everything good about the team now just feels bittersweet. We’ll probably have our best record in about 15 years, and what should be the sweet taste of a triumphant payoff after years of hopelessness will instead taste of ashes.

    Fak u dolan

  255. BigBlueAL

    dogrufus: Yeah, I know we shot amazingly bad like all of last season.Multiple shooters who were in the high 30?s last season nosediving like TD and Fields did has to be a big statistical anomaly.That was one of the reasons, along with our good young PG prospect and the improbable bird rights ruling, that had me so excited about this season.

    Goddammit.Everything good about the team now just feels bittersweet.We’ll probably have our best record in about 15 years, and what should be the sweet taste of a triumphant payoff after years of hopelessness will instead taste of ashes.

    Fak u dolan

    It doesnt have to taste like ashes though, just close your eyes and imagine it tasting like strawberries. Or in my case a Big Mac and fries lol

  256. jon abbey

    dogrufus: Great teams, the kind of team we’d have been if we’d kept Lin, have a chance to win that many games.We’re playing in an extremely weak conference where if we’d kept Lin and had our best possible season we could hit 65.

    this to me is crazy, flat out crazy.

  257. jon abbey

    also, Ronnie Brewer is a CAA guy, in case anyone had any doubt about who was running the Knicks now and why he would pass on likely better offers to come here. is JR Smith CAA too (I don’t know)?

  258. Bruno Almeida

    ruruland:
    Remarks about spot-up numbers:

    The Knicks biggest offensive weakness last year was spot-up efficiency.

    Next year’s team should make a considerable jump in efficiency in this very important category.

    First, NY will likely dole out a much higher percentage of its minutes to Novak and Smith, who are probably the best spot-up combo in the game (how can you not be excited about this next year, remember what they did to Boston in April?)

    Second, Ray Felton is an average spot-up player, with the potential to be better when his offensive burden is decreasedand open opps. increased as they were in Denver, where he was the 15th best spot up guy in the NBA.

    Third, Jason Kidd, despite a slip the last two years, is at the very least an average spot-up guy, and not far removed from being elite.

    Brewer is awful but won’t take many shots.

    The Knicks can become an elite spot-up team if Melo returns to the form he had in 2010-2011. Guess what one of his primary training goals is this off-season? Off-ball play.

    You saw what he did today against Spain in catch and shoot, and most of you know what kind of season I think he’s headed for in 2012-2013

    You can also see that Amar’e had a big slip, but chances are he rebounds given the substantial differences in off-season circumstances.

    I agree with this reasoning and I’m excited to see much improved shooting, but for all those spot up opportunities to come up, we need 2 things: guys commanding double teams, and dribble penetration.

    Carmelo will force double teams often and Amare sometimes will too, but should we be really confident on the second part?

    I mean, are you sure, ruruland, that Felton will be able to create spot up opportunities for all those guys?

    because we know Kidd can’t do it anymore, Carmelo might be able to, against slower defenders, and…

  259. Bruno Almeida

    jon abbey:
    also, Ronnie Brewer is a CAA guy, in case anyone had any doubt about who was running the Knicks now and why he would pass on likely better offers to come here. is JR Smith CAA too (I don’t know)?

    yeah, J.R too.

  260. bobneptune

    Interesting thread. Some thoughts:

    Good value pick up in Brewer. However, there is a reason the guy is available for the minimum. Awful free throw shooter, awful 3 point shooter, only effective at the rim. Plus, plus defender which will be helpful. Speaking of defense….

    This team will never be a top, championship level defending team until its 2 stars buy into the importance of defense and pay more than lip service to it.

    I honestly think offense against the better teams will be a problem. Other than throw the ball into Melo, what sort of offense is going to be run ? The numbers on Kidd last year were damning. He took 17 shots at the rim and 249 threes! How do you run any pnr’s for amare and chandler when the guy with the ball isn’t ever going hard to the rim?

    My fear is the lack of 3 point shooters is going to make doubling Melo easier and he’ll just pound the ball before hoisting up a fall away 19 footer. The back court is awful lacking a single player who can create his own shot other than psycho JR who is so special he couldn’t get a legit offer from the other 29 GM’s in the league.

    This team will beat a lot of bad teams, but I can’t see it going very far with the back court as presently constructed.

  261. Unreason

    jon abbey:
    also, Ronnie Brewer is a CAA guy, in case anyone had any doubt about who was running the Knicks now and why he would pass on likely better offers to come here. is JR Smith CAA too (I don’t know)?

    I know nothing about this aspect of the league. What kind of influence can they assert on owners and GMs? Can they credibly threaten to prevent players they represent from signing with a team? Won’t that damage their reputation with players if they’re perceived to be making moves motivated by their own interests? What kind of agenda apart from getting their players the biggest possible contracts might they pursue?

  262. Eric Chen

    First, quick intro. I casually lurked here (and P&T) during the season for my smart-fans’ Knicks-Lin fix and obsessively lurked while the Lin free agency played out to its frustrating end. I’m a heavily ‘right brain thinker’ so I appreciate the stats-based analytical approach you guys favor, which adds a helpful dimension to my impressions. Thank you.

    I’m delurking now because I want your reactions to my Knicks-Lin thoughts before KB closes the book on Linsanity.

    I believe the Knicks will miss Lin more than they realize now, and more than Felton and Kidd can provide. They will miss Lin’s versatility (especially that), energy, playmaking, high basketball IQ, big-moment clutchness, and creative isolation scoring. Winning in the play-offs requires several isolation scorers, ball movement, and a knack for clutch plays – Lin would have provided the Knicks all three.

    The Knicks Eli. I was struck by the recent comments about thin-slicing and the quality Lin shares with Eli Manning: the rare ability to make big plays in the clutch. Can’t teach it. My favorite Lin snapshot was the bruising 76ers game where he started 1-11. Anthony was playing poorly so Woodson put the ball in Lin’s hands in the 4Q. Lin repeatedly broke through an amped 76ers defense (remember that vicious cross-over?), took a beating, and pulled out the win. Lin had a bad game on paper, but for me, the 76ers game exemplified why the Knicks need him. The current PGs may be able to make up a lot of Lin’s production, but can they make up for his big-play closing ability in, as Kidd said it, the game-changing last 6 minutes? It seems to me that, for a team with title hopes, it’s hard to put a price tag on a PG (or a QB) who can pull out improbable wins.

    Lin’s versatility. The Knicks guards are specialists. Every pairing takes something off the table. Pairing any Knicks guard with Lin’s do-everything combo guard game would have compensated for the limited skills of the other Knicks…

  263. kng94

    Frank:
    btw, here is the most hilarious article to come out of Wages of Wins in a while. You gotta love how they try to explain away why D-Will was bad last year (and not great the year before), while not acknowledging that for most of the year, Melo was passing to 2 of the worst shooters in the entire NBA.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/19/are-the-nets-better-than-the-knicks/

    It’s almost as if they are admitting that your teammates matter! well, at least when one of their pet players’ results don’t conform to their worldview.

    …Did they REALLY put Gerald Wallace over Melo? I mean, Melo may not have had the best season last year barring the last 2 months and Gerald Wallace isn’t a terrible player either but… COME ON. If an AVERAGE small forward like Melo can drop 27 against the Spanish national team.. Well, looks like the rest of the world needs to step it up a bit. I’d say the only thing this article was spot-on with is Tyson Chandler. But I do have to give Brook Lopez a bit of credit. He is far from the worst center in the league.

  264. Eric Chen

    Continued from 280 … of the other Knicks guards.

    Anthony and Lin. The popular opinion seems to be Anthony and Lin could only succeed by diminishing the other. I don’t agree. I believe they had the potential to become one of the best G/F dynamic duos in the NBA, at least in the conversation, if not the same class, with Westbrook/Durant and Wade/James. Both Anthony and Lin have very versatile offensive games and are skilled passers (for iso scorers). Before Lin was hurt last season, they were just starting to develop a 2-man game. Moreover, the top teams in the NBA – like the Heat and Thunder – play more than one elite scorer. Anthony tends to be streaky. When he’s not on, somebody has to pick up the slack; in the 76ers game, Woodson had Lin to turn to when Anthony didn’t have it. Then, when the Knicks run up against play-off defenses, Anthony is going to get really lonely without that reliable perimeter scorer and playmaker sharing the load.

    Lin and Iso-Melo. I’m not convinced Woodson, with Lin, would have simplified his offense to a repetitive Iso-Melo. I think Lin would still have run pick-and-rolls with Chandler and Stoudemire and taken his shots as the team’s primary ball-handler. But even in Iso-Melo, I think Lin would have excelled as the primary kick-out option. Lin has a strong off-the-ball game. Anthony will pass when the defense sags on him and Lin is adept at getting open. Lin doesn’t always read defenses well when he’s head down and handling but he reads defenses well off-the-ball. Imagine the ball swinging to Lin on the weak side with a defense caught scrambling in rotation. He would have feasted. Anthony to Kidd to Lin would have given Lin an assist or score opportunity every time. It could have been poetry.

    I don’t know that the Knicks will win fewer regular season games without Lin. The team will be more boring without him. Lin’s absence will be felt in the play-offs when the team needs a game-changing play or another iso scorer…

  265. jon abbey

    god, with all due respect, WHO CARES? it’s all hypothetical at this point, the dude is gone.

  266. jon abbey

    what can be tested is my belief that Lin will never stay healthy for a full season playing 30+ minutes per game without drastic changes to his style.

  267. BigBlueAL

    Berman tweeted the other day that he thinks the Knicks know something about Lin’s knee that worries them. I think he mentioned having a level of arthritis on that knee which lead to the meniscus tear while only being 23 yo is not a good sign. Dunno if he is just speculating or someone in the org actually told him this.

  268. Eric Chen

    jon abbey:
    what can be tested is my belief that Lin will never stay healthy for a full season playing 30+ minutes per game without drastic changes to his style.

    I am concerned that Lin will be overused by the Rockets while he pushes himself too hard trying to justify his contract and carry a young team. For next season, I was hoping for a balanced, efficient 33-35 MPG while he learned to switch gears, like Kidd said he was going to teach him. Play within the system, play with and off of his star teammate Anthony, then turn it on and take over when needed. I believe Lin would have learned to play in a more measured, self-protective way with the Knicks in Woodson’s system. Now it’s sink or swim, ready or not, in Houston.

  269. jon abbey

    Eric Chen: I believe Lin would have learned to play in a more measured, self-protective way with the Knicks in Woodson’s system.

    I mean, he’s obviously a smart guy, so it’s possible, but it seemed to me that his style is too deeply rooted and instinctual to change as much as I think he needs to to have a lengthy and healthy career. it is possible, though, if I were him I’d never stop watching film of Tony Parker.

  270. Brian Cronin

    What’s crazy to me is not so much that AK-47 expects to make roughly $8 million a year in 2012-13, when he didn’t play in the NBA last year, hasn’t played 70 games in a season since 2008 and is 31 years old. No, what’s crazy to me is that Minnesota seems to be trying to work out a trade that will allow them to pay him that much money.

    Apparently, Minny will trade Wesley Johnson, Brad Miller’s non-guaranteed contract and a first round pick to the Suns, who will trade Hakim Warrick, a signed Robin Lopez (three years/$15 million, which, in and of itself, is a surprise) and two second round picks to the Hornets, who will in turn sign and trade Andrei Kirilenko to the T-Wolves.

    Crazy, man, crazy.

    The Nets owner apparently could not threaten enough of AK-47′s relatives in Russia to make Kirilenko take the vet minimum from Brooklyn.

  271. Frank

    Eric Chen: I am concerned that Lin will be overused by the Rockets while he pushes himself too hard trying to justify his contract and carry a young team. For next season, I was hoping for a balanced, efficient 33-35 MPG while he learned to switch gears, like Kidd said he was going to teach him. Play within the system, play with and off of his star teammate Anthony, then turn it on and take over when needed. I believe Lin would have learned to play in a more measured, self-protective way with the Knicks in Woodson’s system. Now it’s sink or swim, ready or not, in Houston.

    The question is – and it’s a valid question IMHO – whether Lin is worth the contract he was going to be given (with luxury tax included) if you’re not really going to maximize his best asset – which is high volume scoring. You’ve already made a financial commitment to Amare and Melo (for better or worse, it’s already done and over with), both of whom need a usage of 25+ to be effective. Then on top of that, if you’re going to ask him to play in a more self-protective manner, you take away his one truly elite skill, which is his ability to draw contact in the paint on drives. He’s not really a good shooter, he’s a pretty good passer but not any better than Felton. And if you’re going to ask him to be purely a ballhandler/distributor, he has a fairly high turnover rate even without counting his drives. And he was going to cost the Knicks >$25MM/year.

    Obviously he’s only 23 and can improve these aspects of his game. And dogrufus, no one is arguing that we’re “better off” as a basketball team without Lin – all I’m saying is that while I hate Dolan too, I can see the reasoning behind letting Lin go and bringing on the guys we have. If $ were not an issue, then obviously we’d all want Lin back. To say “who cares about Dolan’s $” is just not realistic.

  272. bobneptune

    BigBlueAL:
    Berman tweeted the other day that he thinks the Knicks know something about Lin’s knee that worries them.I think he mentioned having a level of arthritis on that knee which lead to the meniscus tear while only being 23 yo is not a good sign.Dunno if he is just speculating or someone in the org actually told him this.

    More spin control from the Knicks….”psssst, Berman…. we were really too concerned about Lin’s knee because he had a cartiliage tear!”

    By that attitude, Shumpert is absolutely finished (2 serious knee injuries in his rookie season including one reconstruction).

    Also, the Knick’s medical staff has been soooooooo good at predictions moving forward: Mc Dyess, Houston, Amare, Camby couldn’t stay sound for 30 seconds with the knicks staff, but has been virtually indestructible for denver, portland , etc

  273. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Frank: The question is – and it’s a valid question IMHO – whether Lin is worth the contract he was going to be given (with luxury tax included) if you’re not really going to maximize his best asset – which is high volume scoring.You’ve already made a financial commitment to Amare and Melo (for better or worse, it’s already done and over with), both of whom need a usage of 25+ to be effective.Then on top of that, if you’re going to ask him to play in a more self-protective manner, you take away his one truly elite skill, which is his ability to draw contact in the paint on drives.He’s not really a good shooter, he’s a pretty good passer but not any better than Felton.And if you’re going to ask him to be purely a ballhandler/distributor, he has a fairly high turnover rate even without counting his drives.And he was going to cost the Knicks >$25MM/year.

    Obviously he’s only 23 and can improve these aspects of his game. And dogrufus, no one is arguing that we’re “better off” as a basketball team without Lin – all I’m saying is that while I hate Dolan too, I can see the reasoning behind letting Lin go and bringing on the guys we have.If $ were not an issue, then obviously we’d all want Lin back. To say “who cares about Dolan’s $” is just not realistic.

    You know they could have cut him after year two and saved most of that money owed to the league in year 3, right?

  274. The Infamous Cdiggy

    Eric Chen:
    I believe the Knicks will miss Lin more than they realize now, and more than Felton and Kidd can provide. They will miss Lin’s versatility (especially that), energy, playmaking, high basketball IQ, big-moment clutchness, and creative isolation scoring. Winning in the play-offs requires several isolation scorers, ball movement, and a knack for clutch plays – Lin would have provided the Knicks all three.

    The Knicks Eli. I was struck by the recent comments about thin-slicing and the quality Lin shares with Eli Manning: the rare ability to make big plays in the clutch. Can’t teach it. My favorite Lin snapshot was the bruising 76ers game where he started 1-11.Anthony was playing poorly so Woodson put the ball in Lin’s hands in the 4Q. Lin repeatedly broke through an amped 76ers defense (remember that vicious cross-over?), took a beating, and pulled out the win. Lin had a bad game on paper, but for me, the 76ers game exemplified why the Knicks need him. The current PGs may be able to make up a lot of Lin’s production, but can they make up for his big-play closing ability in, as Kidd said it, the game-changing last 6 minutes? It seems to me that, for a team with title hopes, it’s hard to put a price tag on a PG (or a QB) who can pull out improbable wins.

    COSIGN!
    I wrote this on my blog back in February shortly after the Giants won the Superbowl: http://stoptryingtoplayme.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/a-blue-valintine-story/

    My apologies to you advanced stat guys. I love the debate going on (THCJ and Ruru make me want to sit back and watch them go at it while scarfing down popcorn), but I really believed I saw some of Eli Manning in Lin’s play and demeanor. Funny: Eli had problems with turnovers too.

    One day maybe we’ll move on from this JLin debate, but that gorilla-guts 3-ball to win the game in Toronto will stay with me for a…

  275. Eric Chen

    The Infamous Cdiggy: COSIGN!
    I wrote this on my blog back in February shortly after the Giants won the Superbowl: http://stoptryingtoplayme.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/a-blue-valintine-story/

    I can’t take credit for the Eli-Lin comparison. I read 2 commenters talk about it on KB a few days ago and it just made sense, down to a raw Manning in 2008 – less polished then as a QB than Lin is now as a PG – making game-winning plays. For a while Manning didn’t pass the ‘eye test’ either and dealt with loud doubters, especially when he was compared to co-drafted QBs Philip Rivers and Ben Roesthlisberger.

    Can’t scout for the clutch gene. Can’t teach it. Whether you find it in a role player like Horry, a deep 2nd round pick like Manu, or an all-time great like Jordan, the smart play is to hold onto the clutch gene when you’re lucky enough to find it. The Knicks found it and gave it away.

  276. Eric Chen

    Frank: The question is – and it’s a valid question IMHO – whether Lin is worth the contract he was going to be given (with luxury tax included) if you’re not really going to maximize his best asset – which is high volume scoring.You’ve already made a financial commitment to Amare and Melo (for better or worse, it’s already done and over with), both of whom need a usage of 25+ to be effective.Then on top of that, if you’re going to ask him to play in a more self-protective manner, you take away his one truly elite skill, which is his ability to draw contact in the paint on drives.He’s not really a good shooter, he’s a pretty good passer but not any better than Felton.And if you’re going to ask him to be purely a ballhandler/distributor, he has a fairly high turnover rate even without counting his drives.And he was going to cost the Knicks >$25MM/year.

    Frank, that’s why I emphasized Lin’s versatility. Looking at each facets under a microscope, it’s easy to say this guard can match Lin in this specific situation. But if you put them together, Lin would have had key roles in all of them: Iso-Melo and pressure-valve kick-outs, pick-and-rolls with the other Big 3 stars, fastbreaks from better defense, bail-out iso scoring when the “clumsy” fitting Big 3 ruined yet another play, closing games, the type of combo guard Kidd needs to pair with at the end of his career…Lin would have been the common denominator. Besides, an instinctive scorer who’s the primary ballhandler is going to score. At Harvard, 7SOL on-the-ball high-volume scoring was not Lin’s elite skill. While he scored plenty against top opponents, Lin’s calling card was actually his across-the-board, whatever-the-team-needs production. Next season, Lin would have earned his pay as the 1-man-toolkit lynchpin guard that held together the Knicks mismatched, mix-and-match team.

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