Thomas, SAR, and Toine (and also Darius Miles) were very “NBA
ready” because of athleticism, size, and/or a tremendous skill set.
Thomas and moreso Miles fell more into the athleticism and size
categories and never developed upon impressive skill sets (for
such young players). Toine was obviously very skilled and has sort of
an unconventional athleticism (he worked on the size in a horizontal
manner over the years).

Danilo should be a better outside shooter than any of the above. He can also score off the dribble or in the post (sort of the best case scenario for TT or Toine, but again probably a better shooter than either).
He also seems very determined, something Miles, TT, and Toine obviously lack to varying degrees.
——————————-

Comparing him to European prospects seems most useful at the moment (since there is a statistical comparison to be made for other Euroleague players).

Unfortunately, not many (any?) established 20 year old wings have made the jump. Guys like Jiri Welsch and Victor Kryapa were drafted on their potential, potential both have failed to live up to even in Europe (Welsch is a solid rotation player, Kryapa doesn’t see the floor for Europe’s best team, CSKA Moskow). Zoran Planinic has gone on to a solid career in Europe, but not spectacular and he just doesn’t do anything at an NBA level.

Kirilenko’s game is very different from what I expect Danilo to develop into, but his adjusting quickly to the NBA game is still a positive sign. I don’t think AK ever played in the Euroleague.

Pau also has a different game from Danilo’s, but also hit the NBA running. Like Danilo, Pau had already established himself as a good player in Europe before coming to the NBA at an early age. I’ll have to look for his Euroleague stats. In the ACB (Spanish League) he took a HUGE step forward from his first full season to his second: paying almost twice as many minutes, scoring over three times the points, better 3p%, etc.
MPG: 15 to 24
PPG: 4.2 to 11.4
RPG: 2.6 to 5.2
3p%: 30 to 35
2p%: 58 to 59
FT&: 52 to 59
He was already a skilled post player (2p%), but not that developed overall. He did play very well in the playoffs his 20 year old season (2nd full season, 00-01) scoring 15.6 ppg and shooting 75% from the free throw line. He took another big step as an NBA rookie, though.

Manu’s another guy I’ll take a look at.

Partly because the list may be overgenerous, being based on PER. IMO, defense in young players usually lags behind offense and this doesn’t factor that in enough. But forget that – aside from a few wildcards (Darius Miles, Antoine Walker, Tim Thomas, SAR!)… the list of 20-year-olds who were above average is basically a list of superstars. Even excellent players like Dirk and Joe Johnson were well below average. So unless you think Gallinari is superstar or near-superstar material, I wouldn’t expect him to be good in the short run.

It doesn’t mean I don’t like him, or that he’ll be a disappointment. In the last 12 years there have been 72 players taken top-six of the draft (duh). That’s 72 players… 150 NBA starters… so a reasonable expectation for a #6 pick is only to get a somewhat above average starter, a few years from now. Even if there have been 12-15 “good” 20-year-olds, you can figure the odds on the rookie season.

The good news is, players get better fast when they’re that young!

An interesting caveat: Gallinari’s skill mix seems pretty close to Thomas, SAR and Antoine Walker. Hopefully he’ll turn out better — but maybe there is something about that type of player which makes for quick adaptation to the NBA.

Agree that PER isn’t the best way to measure Balkman’s production, while WoW likely overrates him as a high rebound guy for his position. I would still say he was average at best last season and obviously took a big step backwards: looking at those same metrics from his rookie year he put up a PER of 16, a Roland Rating of +2.9, and a WP48 of .262. Again, I also expect him to play better than last season, but who knows.

“The Roland Rating is as much a total production measure as a “rate” system — if you barely play, your Roland Rating will be low.”

Guess who led the Knicks in Roland Rating? Jerome James. The sample size was really small and I’m not suggesting he’s the Knicks’ best player, but there are plenty of other examples out there of guys who played limited minutes and had good Roland Ratings. I don’t know the math, but it basically combines +/- and PER/opponent’s PER. I don’t know if that’s the best way to evaluate individuals, but for teams I found the average Roland Rating (weighted by minutes played) to be more predictive of wins than either PER (by a long shot)or WP48.

“You’d be hard-pressed to find half a dozen players who were actually above average at age 19. Garnett, LeBron… um… um….”

I don’t know what we’re defining as above average, but I’ll start with PER of 15 because it’s the most easily accessible data.

I’ll start with players who played 25 mpg + on teams that won 30 games or more to elimiate the Kevin Durants and anyone who was a 10 mpg player on a 50 win team.

Besides LeBron and KG

Player………….age…wins..MPG…..PER

Stephon Marbury….19….40….34.7….16.1
Amare…………..20….44….31.3….16.2
Melo……………19….43….36.5….17.6
Kobe……………19….61….26……18.5
Chris Bosh………19….33….33.5….15.1
Chris Paul………20….38….36……22.1
Dwight Howard……19….36….32.6….17.2
Chris Webber…….20….50….32.1….21.7
AK……………..20….44….26……18.8

Missed cut

Thaddeus Young…..19….40….21……16.5
Darius Miles…….19….31….26.3….14.7
Mike Miller……..20….43….29.1….13.2
Tim Thomas………20….31….23.1….14.9
Tyrus Thomas…….20….49….13.4….14.8
Al Jefferson…….20….45….14.8….16.6

Under 15 PER but 25 MPG on good team

Luol Deng……….19….47….27.3….14.2
Tony Parker……..19….58….29.4….11.7
Joe Johnson……..20….42.5..24.9….11.8 (average Boston and Phoenix)

Bad team, solid PER

Josh Smith………19….13….27.7….15.4
Nene……………20….17….28.1….15.5
Durant………….19….20….34.6….15.8
Elton Brand……..20….17….37……20.6
Lamar Odom………20….15….36.4….16.8
Ron Artest………20….17….31.1….13.4
Mike Bibby………20….8-42..35.2….14.8
SAR…………….20….14….35……17.4
Toine…………..20….15….36.2….15.5
Rajon Rondo……..20….24….23.5….13.1

Euro rookies

AK……………..20….44….26……18.8
Peja……………21….27-23.21……13.5 (strike season)
Manu……………25….60….20.7….14.7
Pau…………….21….23….36.7….19.5
Hedo……………21….55….16.8….11.7
Tony Parker……..19….58….29.4….11.7
Radmanovic………21….45….20.2….12.7
Zydrunas Ilgauskas.22….47….29……19.7
Dirk……………20….19….20.4….12.8

I included 20 year olds, but the only non-rookie was a 19 year old Kobe

If Danilo’s going to be a very good player some day, I think he can be an average player even at 19. If he’s going to be an average or slightly above average player on his career, then probably not.

Not sure any of this applies much to Chandler as he already has one below average year in the NBA. Although some of these guys had similar seasons at 20 and went on to be pretty good.

Oh yeah, forgot Simmons was part of that Jersey trade. They could still send a combo of Gadzuric and Desmond Mason for $5 mil apiece, Charlie Bell & Jake Voskuhl at $3 mil, Williams at $7.5 if they’re going with Sessions… that team is loaded with stupid contracts.
I wouldn’t pay attention to 2nd or 3rd hand reports about what Kohl supposedly said.

It wasn’t 2nd or 3rd hand. He said it in the press conference where he let Larry Harris go. See this link: http://www.brewhoop.com/story/2008/3/20/101946/351

I’m not saying that we can’t find a team to trade Randolph to. I’m just saying it’s very unlikely that the bucks would take him. And for all those saying we could get more for Randolph, consider this: Essentially, Portland paid us 20 million dollars to take randolph. Sure, they got Frye, but I think most people already sensed taht Frye was not going to be much of a player.

Add to that that Randolph averaged 24 and 10 the previous season and was a year younger, while here he only averaged 17.5 and 10, and joined a team that had been mediocre the previous year, being pretty much the only personnel change, and ended up making them outright terrible.

I’m not saying he’s untradeable, or taht the deal with LAC was the best possible, I”m just saying it was pretty darn good, and given the fact taht Zach and Eddy are terrible side by side, it would have been really great to have him gone.

how about a poll, we each pick the one guy we’d most like to see off the roster? I predict a very tight contest between Marbury, Randolph, and James.

Seattle, Portland, Denver, and Sacramento did a four team trade not long ago (Earl Watson, Reggie Evans, Byron Russell, Voshon Leonard, etc…)

Three team trades are not uncommon. They happen every year.

Basically multiple team trades happen because of salary complications. In theory they involve two sellers and two buyers and make salary matches possible (or in the Patrick Ewing case three dumpers and one eater. I think there was a 5 team trade originally agreed to involving Detroit and Vin Baker in the Ewing saga but the league rejected it because Detroit was simply dumping all their crap on us and Stern felt it unreasonable. Layden was able to recover from the league’s denial and still make the trade happen with pretty much the same amount of junk but the not-yet-horrible Vin Baker out of it.)

I suppose it’s hard to make everyone happy, but it does happen, and the last four team trade won’t be the last.

Yes, Thomas, there is one four way trade that went down in the past 10 years that is still horribly fresh in my mind. It involved the Sonics, the Lakers, the Suns, and a team called the New York Knicks. The Knicks got Luc Longley in that trade…

I’m hating on you now because Caleb liked your trade and dissed mine and I’m totally jealous. Don’t take it personally…

That trade would never happen. It is damn near impossible to get a three way trade worked out and you propose a four way deal? Can you even find a four way deal that went down in the last 10 years? There is a total of 14 players changing teams plus picks. That has to be some kind of record. The Knicks have seven players coming in with five going out, we already have 16 contracts before the trade, your deal brings us to 18 contracts. That means three players have to go. Who are you going to toss? Do your calculations allow us to keep Lee when he becomes a restricted free agent? Or do you plan to package him with Odom in Feb for Joe Johnson?

That aside, great trade. :-)