He didn’t play much better in 09-10 than 08-09. His peripherals only improved slightly (blocks most noticeably… which certainly could be from a healthier/healthy back). If he came out and was way more active/productive in 09-10–more rebounds, more playmaking, more getting to the hoop–than I would give him a mulligan for 08-09. However, he was with the team most or all of the season, played in 28 games (not abnormal for a rookie at all), and played pretty much the same way he did in 09-10. Based on the lack of improvement from his “mulligan” season 08-09 to 09-10… it’s hard to project him to make the rebounding and playmaking and inside scoring improvements necessary to reach his absolute potential. Which is not to say he can’t be a valuable player as a jump shooting wing with a great jumper and solid defense.

We’ll have to see how much he improves this season. It’s certainly a possibility that his back was holding him back (and might for his entire career), but I don’t know why you take it as a given that he underachieved because of the back and will be healthier this season. Most professional players are pretty healthy their whole careers and are still not even NBA players, let alone good ones (not saying Danilo’s not good, just that health doesn’t necessarily mean improvement at the NBA level). There wasn’t much indication that Danilo wasn’t in NBA shape last season. At his age I certainly expect Danilo to continue improving, I just don’t personally expect a radical reformation into an All-NBA first team caliber player. Unless it’s as a Reggie Miller or Peja level jump-shooter.

“Of course, it’s possible he hasn’t taken advantage of his opportunity, and will be substantially the same player we saw. but in this one case, I really doubt it. Everything he’s said has pointed toward a dedicated player who “gets it” and should show up ready.”

Work ethic is definitely extremely important; however, it’s not everything. Natural skill/talent also plays a role. I just don’t see Danilo as having the natural talent to be a stand-out athlete at the NBA level, but we’ll have to see. He’s already a useful player and should improve across the board from his 21 year old season, I just don’t know that the back is an excuse anymore. Wilson Chandler has been in the NBA 3 full seasons and people are still making excuses that he’s way better than he has played but didn’t have enough time to improve in the offseasons. Plenty of players have offseason surgeries and still play at a high level. Someone like Chris Paul will suffer when seriously injured, but still play 2x better than Danilo or especially Wilson Chandler. I guess a study on the subject would be needed to say anything conclusively.

I’m pretty interested in seeing the team as it is now play, but would love to add Carmelo. It’s crazy to see all these posts arguing about whether or not Carmelo would be a good addition to the team considering the Knicks’ situation not long ago.

Of course Gallo should have a “mulligan” on 08-09 – that’s when he hurt his back! In preseason, down low against Tractor Traylor. He may have played 28 games during the season, but he was seriously limited, told to stay out of the paint, and eventually was shut down. And again, before 09-10 he had surgery on his spine. SURGERY ON HIS SPINE. That’s extremely serious stuff, to where there was a question whether he’d come back at all. So while I wouldn’t say athleticism can improve, I’d say recovery from a major injury/surgery can take time. He couldn’t work on his body after the surgery, so he came to camp not physically at his best. This off-season, he’s had the OPPORTUNITY to work on his body, fully rebuild it after needing months off, and do the basic work to create an NBA body he was never, ever able to do.

I expect much, much more from him this year.

Of course, it’s possible he hasn’t taken advantage of his opportunity, and will be substantially the same player we saw. but in this one case, I really doubt it. Everything he’s said has pointed toward a dedicated player who “gets it” and should show up ready.

Ted Nelson:
Beasley is criticized because he plays games high and doesn’t give full effort… Hard to reach your potential when you’re stoned out of your mind, ask Balkman.  

Uh oh, Ted– you’re making assumptions that aren’t backed up by stats! Has anyone seen Balkman or Beasley play sober? They may be even worse. There is a way to tell for sure. Some people can’t even get out of bed in the morning without a little stimulation, let alone play ball at a high level. Khan’s non-medical personal opinions aside, there’s no published study on the subject that the medical team at High Times doesn’t dispute.

There is one way to statistically analyze the effects of marijuana on performance: check Allen Iverson’s 1st half stats vs. his second half stats. Everyone knows he used to puff the magic dragon at halftime in the parking lot of the 1st Union Center…

Z-man: Off topic, interesting (and somewhat troubling) take on Felton by Gian at P&T:http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2010/8/19/1630688/predicting-raymond-feltons#storyjump  

I loved this article — finally someone talking about changing teams and roles and how that might affect advanced stats, rather than just assuming that because someone’s rebound rate was 12% in one place means that it will be the same in another place and role. We need more studies like this.

http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2010/8/19/1630688/predicting-raymond-feltons#storyjump

Gallo certainly has potential, but not many players improve their athleticism. He played in 28 games the season before and spent the entire season with the team, so I don’t really buy the rookie thing 100%. It holds some weight, but he didn’t play any better in 09-10 than 08-09 so it’s hard to give him a mulligan on 08-09.

Frank,

I agree that it’s a tough choice. It doesn’t just come down to ceilings, but realistic expectations. Anthony Randolph has played better to date. I would love to see it, but would put the chances of Danilo developing into a Dirk type of bigman at about 1%.

It also comes down to what the Knicks would look like. Danilo would complement Melo with his outside shooting, but otherwise they are really similar. AR is not much of a scorer, but playing next to Melo he’s bring defense and rebounding. I don’t know which is better. Depends on how you value scoring vs. the rest of the game.

“I’m going to assume this is a joke.”

David Kahn was fined for saying Beasley “abused” pot in Miami and that’s why he underachieved there earlier this summer. He said that he heard it directly from Beasley, but that Beasley promised to change his ways.
Balkman is Rastafarian… they believe marijuana brings you closer to god… He refuses to ever cut his hair again in his life due to religious conviction, so I’m pretty sure he doesn’t take a pass on one of the tenants of the religion. Would also explain why D’Antoni decided to dump him at first glance.

“so the “Curry expiring” value is less than before in my opinion.”

Expiring contracts were valuable before 2010. I’m not saying Denver will or won’t go for Curry/Gallo, I’m just saying that the Knicks have no reason to substantially outbid any other offer. What other team is offering 2 blue-chip prospects over 6-10?

“Existing numbers are the only hard evidence we have and those say that Gallo + Curry (a.k.a. nothing) doesn’t equal Melo.”

Only so many NBA trades are equal on paper. Furthermore, you can’t realistically assume zero development from Gallo. He’s a 22 year old who has already proven to be an excellent NBA scorer. You can’t just assume he’s going to reach his absolute potential, but the Nuggets are going to have a hard time trading Melo in a good trade if they refuse to acknowledge the player development arc.

“I don’t think it’s too early/late to consider everything and anything.”

I don’t either, but you can’t just make trades out of fear that your team’s most pessimistic case scenario is going to be realized. It’s like me saying that there’s a chance Danilo is Dirk and AR is KG so they should in no way be traded for Melo. Neither the best or the worst is what we realistically expect to happen. Realistically, they should both improve a bit on their 09-10 numbers. If we want to talk worst case, maybe Amare’s knee gives out and Melo breaks his neck…