Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Sep 26 2012)

  • [New York Post] Humphries set for Nets opener vs. Knicks (Wed, 26 Sep 2012 00:29:39 -0500)
    Kris Humphries wasn’t surprised the NBA gave the Nets the Knicks as opponents for their historic Brooklyn opener Nov. 1. The league likes mayhem and Humphries expects it â?? in the new Barclays Center seats.
    “The NBA wants that,” the Nets forward told The Post yesterday during a kids event…

  • [New York Times] On Pro Basketball: On Pro Basketball â?? Nets Have Big Goals and Audacious Dreams (Wed, 26 Sep 2012 10:01:47 GMT)
    As they embark on their Brooklyn adventure, the Nets have their sights set on overtaking the Miami Heat, the defending National Basketball Association champions.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | College Basketball: No Cancer for North Carolina’s Roy Williams (Wed, 26 Sep 2012 05:20:04 GMT)
    North Carolina Coach Roy Williams’s surgically removed kidney tumor was not cancerous, the university said.

  • [New York Times] The Barclays Center in Brooklyn Showcases the Borough’s Food (Wed, 26 Sep 2012 03:20:04 GMT)
    The new Barclays Center, home of the Brooklyn Nets, will offer the products of 37 Brooklyn restaurateurs and food purveyors.

  • 75 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Sep 26 2012)

    1. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/09/25/is-it-better-to-be-great-or-potentially-great/

      lol

      Is that article a joke?

      1st a tautology: A good player is by definition a better player than someone that has potential to be good.

      2nd a glaring omission: To beat other teams at the cap space game, you have to accumulate the most “potential talent” under the less salary possible. Then, Bird Rights will help you break your salary cap. If you are an overachiever in this strategy you are basically in the position of OKC, who has the decision of paying lots of money to Harden or not. But they have got there banking on “potentially good” players.

    2. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      It’s not a tautology. It’s the idea that gambling (trading for Melo despite his average numbers) is a normal tendency rather than the safe bet (the person who doesn’t need to do X, Y, and Z to become an efficient player). If you want to email the editors of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology and express your displeasure with the findings of the article, go right ahead.

      Why does “potential talent” have anything to do with it? And if we’re looking for “potential talent,” why don’t we sign up a bunch of high-ceiling $500k players instead of signing Mike Bibby and Baron Davis?

    3. er

      what the hell is a high ceiling 500k player ?

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      It’s not a tautology. It’s the idea that gambling (trading for Melo despite his average numbers) is a normal tendency rather than the safe bet (the person who doesn’t need to do X, Y, and Z to become an efficient player). If you want to email the editors of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology and express your displeasure with the findings of the article, go right ahead.

      Why does “potential talent” have anything to do with it? And if we’re looking for “potential talent,” why don’t we sign up a bunch of high-ceiling $500k players instead of signing Mike Bibby and Baron Davis?

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      er:
      what the hell is a high ceiling 500k player ?

      Manu Ginobili. Landry Fields. Marcus Denmon. Jeremy Lin. Scott Machado. Will Barton. Tony Parker.

      If you believe that NBA decision makers are THAT good that top 1st round talent doesn’t fall to the second round, you have been watching a different league than I have.

      I think what I’m most incredulous about w/r/t this site is people’s faith in NBA suits. I know that sounds silly coming from a guy who views the game in a new light thanks to a few statisticians, but the idea that basketball decision makers are somehow radically more informed than we are is laughable.

    5. er

      I agree that there are some diamonds in the rough. 2 of the players are from overseas in ginobili and parker. Those can go from a dirk like talent to a yi jianlian talent. You never know what you will get from overseas players so i dont think those are fair to lump in those guys.

      fields does NOT have a high ceiling but i would have liked to see the knicks pick up Machado

      Hate to break it to you but I dont think many people have faith in nba suits. Thats why they constantly are being fired, there just arent that many good ones.

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Manu Ginobili. Landry Fields. Marcus Denmon. Jeremy Lin. Scott Machado. Will Barton. Tony Parker.

      If you believe that NBA decision makers are THAT good that top 1st round talent doesn’t fall to the second round, you have been watching a different league than I have.

      I think what I’m most incredulous about w/r/t this site is people’s faith in NBA suits. I know that sounds silly coming from a guy who views the game in a new light thanks to a few statisticians, but the idea that basketball decision makers are somehow radically more informed than we are is laughable.

    6. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Manu Ginobili. Landry Fields. Marcus Denmon. Jeremy Lin. Scott Machado. Will Barton. Tony Parker.

      If you believe that NBA decision makers are THAT good that top 1st round talent doesn’t fall to the second round, you have been watching a different league than I have.

      I think what I’m most incredulous about w/r/t this site is people’s faith in NBA suits. I know that sounds silly coming from a guy who views the game in a new light thanks to a few statisticians, but the idea that basketball decision makers are somehow radically more informed than we are is laughable.

      Again with the “NBA suits suck” thing…. Is it that hard to realize that most informed fans know that Billy King has been a terrible decision maker? Or the Vinny Del Negro has no clue what he’s doing? It’s not what NBA front offices are doing on average that’s revealing, it’s what the SMART front offices are doing. I literally could not care less what Isiah Thomas thinks about basketball evaluation, but I am very interested to know what Greg Poppovich and Sam Presti think. Especially since you’ll notice the best second round picks year after year are on the Spurs.

      On the other hand, the draft is a very inexact science, especially since teams aren’t always just trying to find the best available player. Dejuan Blair might be a lot better than Hasheem Thabeet, but there is no way you could defend wasting a number 2 pick on someone you know is going to be a role player, most teams are more than willing to take a risk to be great in that scenario. Besides, maybe some first round talent does fall late in the draft, but how often does it happen? If it’s only one or 2 guys a year, then they are more likely outliers than any kind of rule, especially since international scouting has come so far since Ginobli and Parker

    7. ruruland

      er: man im telling you if the knicks dont take all of the pundits talk personally and try to stick it to the league then idk what to think about themhttp://www.sbnation.com/2012/9/26/3410824/new-york-knicks-preview-2012-2013-festivus-hook

      Not sure why this is so difficult to figure.

      Jeremy Lin played less than a third of all point guard minutes last year, the other two thirds + of the minutes were played by the worst full-time offensive rotation players in the NBA.

      Smith and Novak averaged a combined 30 mpg last season, while Walker and Fields averaged a combined 38 mpg.

      The Knicks offense will improve even if Amar’e and Melo do not have better seasons relative to league averages, which of course they will.

      Like the graph though. The Knicks were the fifth best defensive team in the NBA last year. They must have been close to the best defensive team in the NBA post-Woodson.

    8. ruruland

      Yep, that graph shows that from about the tenth game of the season the Knicks played Boston level defense (the No.1 defensive team in NBA at 98.1), perhaps better.

      And the defense should be improved from last season.

    9. johnno

      Juany8: I think what I’m most incredulous about w/r/t this site is people’s faith in NBA suits. I know that sounds silly coming from a guy who views the game in a new light thanks to a few statisticians, but the idea that basketball decision makers are somehow radically more informed than we are is laughable.
      Again with the “NBA suits suck” thing…. Is it that hard to realize that most informed fans know that Billy King has been a terrible decision maker? Or the Vinny Del Negro has no clue what he’s doing? It’s not what NBA front offices are doing on average that’s revealing, it’s what the SMART front offices are doing.

      Let’s be serious — even the worst NBA “suits” and coaches have forgotten more about basketball than most of us will ever know. One difference between them and us is that all of their decisions are documented while none of ours are. For example, it’s real easy for me to say that I predicted that Kevin Love and Ken Faried would be good pros (which I did). However, if I’m going to be honest, I have to also admit that I laughed when I heard that some people were dumb enough to think that Dwight Howard would be a better pro than Emeka Okafor. I also thought that Alonzo Mourning would be a career benchwarmer and I thought that Sky Walker would be a great pro. I was also happy when the Knicks acquired Marbury. If I were a “suit,” no one would ever forget those dumb decisions…

    10. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: On the other hand, the draft is a very inexact science, especially since teams aren’t always just trying to find the best available player. Dejuan Blair might be a lot better than Hasheem Thabeet, but there is no way you could defend wasting a number 2 pick on someone you know is going to be a role player, most teams are more than willing to take a risk to be great in that scenario. Besides, maybe some first round talent does fall late in the draft, but how often does it happen? If it’s only one or 2 guys a year, then they are more likely outliers than any kind of rule, especially since international scouting has come so far since Ginobli and Parker

      I don’t deny that Blair should not have been a #2 pick. His knees alone were a strong enough argument for a non-guaranteed contract. But how many players were selected ahead of him in the second round? All of those teams passed on a non-guaranteed contract for what looked like one of the most statistically impressive rebounders of all-time (and although rebounds are not something with high correlation between college and the NBA, it’s worth the risk).

      But you also have no idea whether “1 or 2″ first-round caliber players drop to the second round because most of them never get adequate playing time to show whether they are, in fact, NBA quality players. I need not remind you that Jeremy Lin would maybe not have received playing time in the NBA (ever) had Toney Douglas not been terrible. You know the story. We know that he was a failure of the NBA scouting system ONLY because of a fluke. To claim that he is the exception would be to assume that there are not other Lins out there riding the pine, perhaps not “athletic” enough for PT but better than some of the veteran stiffs who get their token 10 mpg.

    11. ruruland

      Thats a counter-positive, THCJ. WP/WPAWS/Berri misses, NBA F.O.s, who’s rationales are indeterminable, also miss. But the NBA as a whole over the last 10 years has become more efficient, with more teams that stress the 3pt line in the same way they’ve always stressed rebounding. Thats trickled all the way down to high school. Is that evidence that WP has been a primary influence in the changing basketball zeitgeist? Of course not. There are plenty of ways to reach conclusions similar to those that WP”s metrics establish. WP alone does not show you how to build a great basketball– it does not sufficiently answer a great deal of questions on how the game can be played most efficiently.

    12. BigBlueAL

      Im not surprised at all by all the relatively negative predictions for the Knicks this season. What really annoys me is how the Nets are universally praised.

    13. max fisher-cohen

      The Knicks were praised heading into last season. Pundits love stars until those stars make them look foolish.

      Sample predictions for NYK in 2011/12 by media source:

      NBC Sports: 40-26
      CNNSI: Won’t compete for title this year but have potential in future
      ESPN: Stein had the Knicks as the 6th best team in the league.

      I feel like the Nets, while they probably have less talent than NY, are more logically constructed, so my guess is they’ll have similar records, both approaching 50 wins.

    14. formido

      I miss this place. The Houston fan blogs and commenters aren’t nearly as knowledgeable as the good ol’ Knickerblogger denizens. And the arguments are boring. Man I hate Dolan.

    15. daJudge

      “But you also have no idea whether “1 or 2? first-round caliber players drop to the second round because most of them never get adequate playing time to show whether they are, in fact, NBA quality players.” This is an excellent and fair point by THCJ.

    16. BigBlueAL

      max fisher-cohen:
      The Knicks were praised heading into last season. Pundits love stars until those stars make them look foolish.

      Sample predictions for NYK in 2011/12 by media source:

      NBC Sports: 40-26
      CNNSI: Won’t compete for title this year but have potential in future
      ESPN: Stein had the Knicks as the 6th best team in the league.

      I feel like the Nets, while they probably have less talent than NY, are more logically constructed, so my guess is they’ll have similar records, both approaching 50 wins.

      Thats the thing that annoys me, both teams are similar and you can argue they both should win the same amount of games. But the Nets are praised for all their “great” moves while the Knicks are easy targets to ridicule now.

      The Nets have the same exact team as last season except for they traded for one of the worst contracts in the NBA who in the past was criticized for being a good player but having a horrible contract. But now he is a great addition for the Nets?? They added a couple of nice bench players too. Great stuff. Plus that Brook Lopez contract is pure garbage. Gerald Wallace has been on the decline for the last couple of seasons and was signed for 4 years and 40 million. Plus everyone likes to completely gloss over the fact that Deron Williams has been pretty bad as a Net.

      Look I get how freaking horrible the Knicks were for the past decade and making the playoffs in back-to-back years as a 6th and 7th seed isnt anything to celebrate but shit this team is not the joke it was for a decade even with the Lin saga this summer.

      Take shots left and right at Dolan because he still deserves it but the current players dont deserve the same. Not yet anyway.

    17. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      The Knicks are going to be way better than the Nets. I think the Nets are somewhere in the 40-45 win range. The Knicks could push 52 if healthy, but the idea that a no-longer-good Deron Williams, a 30-year-old Joe Johnson, a way-past-prime Gerald Wallace and the worst max contract in the league in Brook Lopez can be a championship contender? Hilarity.

    18. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: The Knicks are going to be way better than the Nets. I think the Nets are somewhere in the 40-45 win range. The Knicks could push 52 if healthy, but the idea that a no-longer-good Deron Williams, a 30-year-old Joe Johnson, a way-past-prime Gerald Wallace and the worst max contract in the league in Brook Lopez can be a championship contender? Hilarity.

      Why would you assume that the Knicks, at best, could improve by one game from last season?

    19. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland: Why would you assume that the Knicks, at best, could improve by one game from last season?

      No one’s going to bench Amare.

    20. max fisher-cohen

      @BigBlueAL

      I agree.

      Just about every move the Nets have made since Prokhorov has been shortsighted IMO. Yeah, they lucked out re: the new CBA, which was probably the main reason Deron Williams stayed, but that’s nothing they could have known, and Favors alone has the potential to be as important a player as Deron Williams. That was their least egregious move, however.

      The most egregious was giving up the #6 pick for Wallace when he was going to be a FA this summer, meaning they could have just signed him for free. Hell, Portland probably would have taken a 2nd round pick for him if they thought it would affect Deron’s thought process.

      There’s probably a 75% chance that if they’d held onto Favors and their pick, those two alone would have been enough to land them Dwight Howard, just as if the Knicks had kept the assets from the Melo trade, there’s a 75% chance they’d have Chris Paul right now, and it wouldn’t require a carefully woven together series of explanations to make an argument that they are at least a dark horse title contender.

      The building strategies of the Nets and Knicks are remarkably similar and are both depressing when you look at the facts.

      The difference in terms of the press is that, well, the press doesn’t really care about right and wrong. They like a good story. Prokhorov is charming and funny. Jay-Z is Jay-Z. Brooklyn is hip. Dolan and the Knicks are pretty obviously foolish whereas New Jersey at least doesn’t come off as an organization run by some child pretending he’s a mafioso. They come off more organization run by a real mob guy, which Prokhorov pretty much is.

    21. jon abbey

      ruruland: c’mon, Jowles. This is where your intellectual honesty comes into question. Your answer makes no sense.

      no, it makes total sense. Melo is better at PF than SF, Amare is better at C (although not sure how Camby fits in then).

      this team would almost certainly be better off with Amare coming off the bench, especially if Smith starts over Brewer.

    22. Juany8

      jon abbey: no, it makes total sense. Melo is better at PF than SF, Amare is better at C (although not sure how Camby fits in then).

      this team would almost certainly be better off with Amare coming off the bench, especially if Smith starts over Brewer.

      At some point you have to question whether Amar’e even deserves serious minutes. Melo is a much better fit at the 4 next to Chandler, and if Amar’e is playing at the 5 then his defense and rebounding become total killers. The guy just doesn’t consistently make team plays, he can’t pass well, he doesn’t box out consistently, and he looks ridiculously bad on defense. Amar’e is the one player THCJ and I seem to actually agree on, unless he finds a way to make it work with Melo and Chandler on the floor (more Chandler than Melo since Amar’e’s defense requires either Camby or Chandler to be out there) what’s his value? I’d take Taj Gibson over last year’s Amar’e straight up, for the same salary, and the Knicks would become significantly better in the process. If his offense can get back to his Phoenix levels, I’ll change my opinion

    23. Juany8

      daJudge:
      “But you also have no idea whether “1 or 2? first-round caliber players drop to the second round because most of them never get adequate playing time to show whether they are, in fact, NBA quality players.”This is an excellent and fair point by THCJ.

      This is actually a pretty fair point, but at the same time I doubt there’s more than 1 player every draft who deserves serious playing time but just never gets it. It’s not like coaches put in rookies based on their NBA production, if the guy shows he has game in practice the coach will usually give him playing time. Not to mention that players who aren’t getting playing time are probably playing to get a contract again, so who’s to say someone like Lin didn’t practice his ass off the whole time in the NBA to get as good as he was? It’s not like he showed the same level of ability in his limited time in Golden State, hell nothing he showed in garbage time on the Knicks resembled what he did when he was given control of the offense

    24. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: This is actually a pretty fair point, but at the same time I doubt there’s more than 1 player every draft who deserves serious playing time but just never gets it. It’s not like coaches put in rookies based on their NBA production, if the guy shows he has game in practice the coach will usually give him playing time. Not to mention that players who aren’t getting playing time are probably playing to get a contract again, so who’s to say someone like Lin didn’t practice his ass off the whole time in the NBA to get as good as he was? It’s not like he showed the same level of ability in his limited time in Golden State, hell nothing he showed in garbage time on the Knicks resembled what he did when he was given control of the offense

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/09/27/what-gets-you-played-in-the-nba/

      And funny how the post on Wages of Wins today (which has absolutely nothing to do with WP48, so save your related objections) shows that coaches value volume scoring over every other measurable statistic when it comes to allocating playing time. I sure bet that coaches know a great player when they see one. I sure bet that they don’t just see a guy who scores a lot and think, “He’s good!”

    25. iserp

      Points per 48 min is a desirable characteristic, so they should have a mild correlation. Even so, the R2 is not really tight. The article rants about the no correlation between MPG and REB48, which only shows at C. But rebounds are a team concept and there are only one or two players near the basket who are responsible for most rebounds, and surprise, there is correlation there!

      THCJ, don’t be evil!

    26. ruruland

      jon abbey: no, it makes total sense. Melo is better at PF than SF, Amare is better at C (although not sure how Camby fits in then).

      this team would almost certainly be better off with Amare coming off the bench, especially if Smith starts over Brewer.

      yes. Of course theres some truth there. But the Knicks had their best stretch with Amare at 4 and Melo at 3.Secondly, the Knicks had the profile of a 51 win team last year. Even if Amare repeats the worst year of his career, the Knicks are likely to at least win 52 games. THCJ pulled the number 52 from his ass.

    27. thenamestsam

      ruruland:THCJ pulled the number 52 from his ass.

      As opposed to what? The detailed computer simulations you ran to come up with your opinion?

      52 seems like a very reasonable number to me. The Knicks still have very real questions about whether Melo and Amare can play together. We’re still under .500 in all the games they’ve played together. Tyson has only had 3 seasons where he played a higher percentage of his team’s games than he did last year in 10 previous seasons, and only one since 06-07. How does it impact your projection if you expect him to play 65 games instead of 75? The Knicks were almost exactly a .500 team if you pull out the Linsanity stretch. Doesn’t that factor in somewhere?

    28. jon abbey

      ruruland: the Knicks are likely to at least win 52 games.

      so if they win less than 52, maybe you can write a thousand word essay for this site on why Melo is overrated? and if they win more than say 58, THCJ could write a thousand words on something of your choice, maybe the biggest flaws in Berri-style analysis.

      personally 52 seems like a reasonable median, I’d maybe even say 50. I have trouble fully believing in a team when I think the whole is less than the sum of its parts (much like some of the Isiah teams, albeit with a lot more defense this time).

    29. d-mar

      BigBlueAL:
      Thats a good point, the media might be scared to criticize the Nets and face the wrath of Prokhorov lol

      Remember the LeBron-athon, where the media would fawn over the “dynamic” Prokhorov and his association with Jay-Z, and make constant distasteful references to Donnie Walsh being wheelchair bound? Had a big impact on LeBron’s decision, obviously.

    30. ruruland

      Namestam:

      I expect him to play less than 70.

      Camby is capable of playing really well with a minute reduction and missing 15-20 games, he should be able to come close to playing at Chandler’s level, which Jeffries was not.

      The Knicks best stretch was not with Linsanity, it was with Woodson.

      Here’s the easiest way to understand why the Knicks are likely to be better, perhaps much better (a chance to approach 60 wins), than the 51 win team last year
      100% Kidd/Felton/Prigioni>>>>30%Lin, 70% Bibby/Davis/Douglas

      Will either Kidd or Felton play at a .140 WS/48 level like Lin did last year? Maybe, but probably not.

      But will they play anywhere as bad as these three?

      Davis: .014
      Bibby: .061
      Douglas: -.046

      Ther’e no reason to believe they will be close to that bad, even if you have very low expectations for both Felton and Kidd. The Knicks point guard unit will be improved, perhaps significantly.

      What about shooting guard/small forward?

      Last year Landry Fields .085 ws/48 and Bill Walker .067 played an average of 38 minutes per game while Novak .181 and Smith .122 played an average of 30 mpg.

      The latter, in addition to Ronnie Brewer (career .134 WS/48) will be taking all of the former’s minutes. Even if you assume that Novak, Smith and Brewer play at a combined .120 WS/48 level (which is a very conservative projection), the Knicks wing unit will be much improved. (Let’s assume Shumpert plays as he did all of last year, not like he did in April)

      Chandler+ Camby>>Chandler+Jeffries/Harrelson

      Even if you think Chandler will miss more games and not quite play as well as he did last year, the center unit is likely to be improved.

      I happen to think Amar’e and Melo will have great years next season, but even if you expect them to play as they did last year relative to the rest of the league, the Knicks, all else being equal, will be better than the 51 win team last year.

    31. ruruland

      jon abbey: so if they win less than 52, maybe you can write a thousand word essay for this site on why Melo is overrated? and if they win more than say 58, THCJ could write a thousand words on something of your choice, maybe the biggest flaws in Berri-style analysis. personally 52 seems like a reasonable median, I’d maybe even say 50. I have trouble fully believing in a team when I think the whole is less than the sum of its parts (much like some of the Isiah teams, albeit with a lot more defense this time).

      Do you think Kidd and Felton will have a better impact on Melo and Amar’e than last year’s pg unit?

      I think it’s pretty obvious that they will. Felton has pretty good pnr chemistry with Amar’e, and say what you will about Kidd slowing down, but he’s still one of the best passers and quarterbacks in the league.

    32. ruruland

      Also, let’s remember that the Knicks defense was 5th in the league last year despite playing most of it under MDA — which is simply incredible. They were the best defensive team in the NBA under Woodson (when their schedule got more difficult), and close to it from about the tenth game of the year.

      A full camp with Woodson and the additions of Camby and Brewer, it’s hard to imagine the Knicks not in the top 5 again.

      I happen to think an offense that’s improved its passing, spot-up shooting through higher minute allocation to better (great) shooters, and featuring Amar’e and Melo (with those excellent passers) will lead to an offense at least better than league average.

    33. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Why use WS/48 over WP/48? If we’re going to rail against linear metrics based on box scores, THROW THEM ALL OUT THE WINDOW PLEASE.

    34. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey: so if they win less than 52, maybe you can write a thousand word essay for this site on why Melo is overrated? and if they win more than say 58, THCJ could write a thousand words on something of your choice, maybe the biggest flaws in Berri-style analysis.

      personally 52 seems like a reasonable median, I’d maybe even say 50. I have trouble fully believing in a team when I think the whole is less than the sum of its parts (much like some of the Isiah teams, albeit with a lot more defense this time).

      I would love to do that. I also have expressed optimism w/r/t the Camby, Kidd, and Brewer signings. I just don’t think they’ll get enough playing time and their impact will be minimized. If Brewer, Kidd, and Camby play significant minutes (hopefully J.R. Smith commits another felony and is out for the season — just kidding, I just hope he pulls a hamstring five times over the course of it), this team could be a 60+ win team. It’s about minute allocation. Amar’e is not good. Carmelo is not going to magically turn into the superstar he’s never been. I’m not optimistic, but I will write a long post about why WP failed if and when it does.

      The T-wolves, however — I am excited for their fans. They’re going to have a great year as long as their big 3 frontcourt players get the lion’s share of the MP. I don’t have enough faith in Woodson to hope for it to happen in MSG.

    35. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Why use WS/48 over WP/48? If we’re going to rail against linear metrics based on box scores, THROW THEM ALL OUT THE WINDOW PLEASE.

      I’d be happy to but I’m trying to keep this in most people’s ballparks to avoid headaches. WS/48 is the lanaguage of the board. The Knicks probably look better as currently composed with WP/48 anyway.

      I have plenty of thoughts on why this team can approach 60 without referencing linear metrics, but it’s kind of obvious why I chose to.

    36. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I would love to do that. I also have expressed optimism w/r/t the Camby, Kidd, and Brewer signings. I just don’t think they’ll get enough playing time and their impact will be minimized. If Brewer, Kidd, and Camby play significant minutes (hopefully J.R. Smith commits another felony and is out for the season — just kidding, I just hope he pulls a hamstring five times over the course of it), this team could be a 60+ win team. It’s about minute allocation. Amar’e is not good. Carmelo is not going to magically turn into the superstar he’s never been. I’m not optimistic, but I will write a long post about why WP failed if and when it does.I don’t have enough faith in Woodson to hope for it to happen in MSG.

      JR Smith actually looks pretty good the last two years in WP/48. Higher than your buddy Batum in 2011.

      You can put your fingers in your ears all day long re:assisted attempts vs unasssisted attempts, but that’ll be your essay topic in April. Kidd anf Felton are going to help guys like Amar’e, JR, and Melo a lot by changing the kinds of shots they take.

      Your predictions thus far: Knicks 48 wins. Carmelo .532TS

      What are your predictions for Amar’e? Will he repeat his career low in jump shot % again?

    37. thenamestsam

      Ruru,

      All your points are fair. It’s not like I don’t understand the arguments in favor of the Knicks as well. I do.

      I’m just saying it’s a little weird to act like 52 is some outlandish prediction when we’re talking about a team that won almost exactly that many games a year ago, and who the vast majority of informed NBA observers are picking to win almost exactly that many again. While it’s true we’ve added a lot of solid average NBA players to replace a bunch of guys who weren’t that, I just don’t think that moves the needle as much as you do apparently.

      I agree with you that we will see a decent bump in the backcourt just from getting a lot more average play. However, I think that will be offset by a pretty substantial regression at center due to Chandler playing less. I’m a lot more down on Camby then you are apparently. I think he’s very overrated defensively. Improvement on Jeffries? Sure. But I think 75-80% of games with Chandler-Camby and the rest with Camby-Thomas/Sheed (god forbid) is worse than 95% Chandler-Jeffries and 5% pupu platter. If Chandler is significantly less healthy than last year (quite likely in my opinion) I see this team falling out of the top-5 defensively. Couple that with a slight improvement offensively and you have a team that’s right back where it was last year in my eyes.

      If things go right I agree that we can win 60, but I think your mean predictions tend to sort of ignore downside.

    38. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: http://wagesofwins.com/2012/09/27/what-gets-you-played-in-the-nba/

      And funny how the post on Wages of Wins today (which has absolutely nothing to do with WP48, so save your related objections) shows that coaches value volume scoring over every other measurable statistic when it comes to allocating playing time. I sure bet that coaches know a great player when they see one. I sure bet that they don’t just see a guy who scores a lot and think, “He’s good!”

      Again, using average data for every team isn’t going to show great results for coaching since for every Poppovich there are 2 Del Negros A more interesting analysis would be comparing what, say, the top 10 teams in the league do with their minute allocations. Even better would be to try to rank the top 10 coaches, since Mike Brown and Scott Brooks are on elite teams but wouldn’t be considered great coaches in any way. Brooks allows Perkins to actually try to post up opponents, which is literally the dumbest thing I have ever seen a coach do. It’s one thing when you’re letting guys like Kobe and Melo waste possessions, but Brooks can’t keep control of fucking Perkins? Not to mention Fisher played Finals minutes for them after the Lakers payed another team to take him off their hands.

    39. Juany8

      Also, 52 wins is not unrealistic in any way. I’d say the Knicks most likely outcome will be somewhere between 50-55 wins with reasonable health and production from everyone. If another player goes the way of Toney Douglas, or if we unearth another Lin/Novak, that would obviously change. I also except more consistent effort in general from both Amar’e and Melo, and it’s fair to note that the Knicks didn’t exactly do great with injuries last year. Couple that will rotation level play for every minute of the game (seriously TD and Bill Walker were MASSIVE negatives) and I do see an outside shot at 57+ wins. 60 isn’t happening, even Miami hasn’t been able to hit that lol, there is no team in the league as good as the Lakers were a few years ago

    40. ruruland

      thenamestsam: Ruru,All your points are fair. It’s not like I don’t understand the arguments in favor of the Knicks as well. I do.I’m just saying it’s a little weird to act like 52 is some outlandish prediction when we’re talking about a team that won almost exactly that many games a year ago, and who the vast majority of informed NBA observers are picking to win almost exactly that many again. While it’s true we’ve added a lot of solid average NBA players to replace a bunch of guys who weren’t that, I just don’t think that moves the needle as much as you do apparently. I agree with you that we will see a decent bump in the backcourt just from getting a lot more average play. However, I think that will be offset by a pretty substantial regression at center due to Chandler playing less. I’m a lot more down on Camby then you are apparently. I think he’s very overrated defensively. Improvement on Jeffries? Sure. But I think 75-80% of games with Chandler-Camby and the rest with Camby-Thomas/Sheed (god forbid) is worse than 95% Chandler-Jeffries and 5% pupu platter. If Chandler is significantly less healthy than last year (quite likely in my opinion) I see this team falling out of the top-5 defensively. P>

      I don’t necessarily think 52 wins is outlandish. I think it’s a middle-low prediction, with reasonable health.

      I was responding to this:

      THCJ said :” Knicks could push 52 if healthy…”

      Can that be interpreted as anything other than 52 wins=ceiling?

      I talked about Camby being overrated before the Knicks signed him (foregoes close-outs to protect rim, average in other situations,overrated rebounder because he gives up o-boards and chases balls he doesn’t ned to)

      But Camby is still an extremely high impact defender at the rim, and while overrated as a rebounder, very good. He’s an upgrade over Jeffries to be sure.

    41. ruruland

      Juany8: Also, 52 wins is not unrealistic in any way. I’d say the Knicks most likely outcome will be somewhere between 50-55 wins with reasonable health and production from everyone. If another player goes the way of Toney Douglas, or if we unearth another Lin/Novak, that would obviously change. I also except more consistent effort in general from both Amar’e and Melo, and it’s fair to note that the Knicks didn’t exactly do great with injuries last year. Couple that will rotation level play for every minute of the game (seriously TD and Bill Walker were MASSIVE negatives) and I do see an outside shot at 57+ wins. 60 isn’t happening, even Miami hasn’t been able to hit that lol, there is no team in the league as good as the Lakers were a few years ago

      60+ wins can happen if Melo and Amar’e have great years (which they are undoubtedly and objectively primed for) and everyone else on the team plays to their 3 year averages.

      I expect the team to be pacing for 60+ wins through the ASB with a conference lead, but could slow down sometime in March due to age/wear+tear/letdown prior to playoffs (most old teams that have played together awhile experience this earlier, but Knicks have different dynamic), with a strong April push.

      I expect 55-58 wins.

    42. ruruland

      Juany8: Also, 52 wins is not unrealistic in any way. I’d say the Knicks most likely outcome will be somewhere between 50-55 wins with reasonable health and production from everyone. If another player goes the way of Toney Douglas, or if we unearth another Lin/Novak, that would obviously change. I also except more consistent effort in general from both Amar’e and Melo, and it’s fair to note that the Knicks didn’t exactly do great with injuries last year. Couple that will rotation level play for every minute of the game (seriously TD and Bill Walker were MASSIVE negatives) and I do see an outside shot at 57+ wins. 60 isn’t happening, even Miami hasn’t been able to hit that lol, there is no team in the league as good as the Lakers were a few years ago

      Let’s also acknolwedge that the Bulls have had two 60 win teams with somewhat similar construction to the Knicks. I’d make the argument that a fully healthy Knicks (Shump) team is at least as talented as the 62 win Bulls of two years ago.

    43. max fisher-cohen

      The problem with the Kidd/Felton vs. Douglas/Lin/Bibby/Davis comparison is that, while they played like shit, they weren’t the only reason for the Knicks’ struggles.

      Amar’e’s 7 game blip of decent defense and strong offense after D’Antoni resigned notwithstanding, one could argue that the main factor that differentiated the Linsanity and late season burst from the rest of the season was the fact that Melo and Stoudemire weren’t playing together and that Douglas’ shittiness was secondary. If that is the case, then this team could easily end up closer to the early season Knicks.

      To me, the transformative factors in both periods but particularly in the more sustained late season run was the fact that NY almost always had two shooters on the floor and 1-2 players who were almost always in charge of creating. During Linsanity, it was the Chandler/Lin pick and roll. During the late run, it was Melo on his own. This allowed them to space the floor and tame egos.

      What we’ll be looking at most likely next season are the Knicks with four players in the SL who need to be part of the primary attack to be most effective: Stoudemire, Anthony, Felton, Chandler, and 0-1 players who are best near the rim/ball (J.R. Smith if he starts).

      Melo has had periods when he has accepted a secondary role, and during some of those periods he has been effective, but he gets frustrated when he struggles (who doesn’t?) and knowing that he is most effective in the post as a 1st option, he pushes to get the ball.

      If you watched the LAL vs OKC this past playoffs, the major factor in LA’s implosion was when Sessions lost his confidence from 3, going 0-4 in the series (turning down open looks) after shooting 44% on the season. Suddenly, OKC could double Bynum and Pau with impunity, forcing LA to revert to the Kobe show. Bryant’s usage in the last three games was above 40%, and while he played well in 2 of those 3, it wasn’t enough to carry the team.

    44. max fisher-cohen

      oops, this: “0-1 players who are best near the rim/ball (J.R. Smith if he starts).”

      should read like this: “0-1 players who are best away from the rim/ball (J.R. Smith if he starts).”

    45. max fisher-cohen

      ruruland: Let’s also acknolwedge that the Bulls have had two 60 win teams with somewhat similar construction to the Knicks. I’d make the argument that a fully healthy Knicks (Shump) team is at least as talented as the 62 win Bulls of two years ago.

      Again, Deng: 37% 3pt shooter. Korver, 43% 3pt shooter, Hamilton 37% 3pt shooter… 2 of 3 were almost always on the floor.

      Still, one could argue that the Knicks, if Amar’e shoots well again and is content as a medium usage player, and if Felton shoots well 36%+ from three and limits his usage, and if Melo plays as well as Rose, that the Knicks could be a slightly less good version of Chicago at their peak. Gibson would be the main difference. Still, that’s a lot of ifs, the biggest one probably being Melo playing like Rose, who had a .208 WS/48 in 10/11, something Melo hasn’t come anywhere near.

    46. ruruland

      MFC, the biggest problem with Amar’e and Melo so far is quite simple. Amar’e has played without a good pnr point guard for the vast majority of time, and last year his jump shot disappeared.

      Let’s remember this: in the 24 regular season games the Knicks played with Amar’e and Melo in ’11, they had a 114.8 offensive rating!

      That number blew out the league leading Nuggets at 112.1

      The Knicks did that without a pnr point guard and with Anthony Carter, Jeffries, and Shelden Williams getting major burn.

    47. ruruland

      max fisher-cohen: Again, Deng: 37% 3pt shooter. Korver, 43% 3pt shooter, Hamilton 37% 3pt shooter… 2 of 3 were almost always on the floor. Still, one could argue that the Knicks, if Amar’e shoots well again and is content as a medium usage player, and if Felton shoots well 36%+ from three and limits his usage, and if Melo plays as well as Rose, that the Knicks could be a slightly less good version of Chicago at their peak. Gibson would be the main difference. Still, that’s a lot of ifs, the biggest one probably being Melo playing like Rose, who had a .208 WS/48 in 10/11, something Melo hasn’t come anywhere near.

      He hasn’t come anywhere near that because he hasn’t played on an elite defense like Rose did.

      Gibson is a good player, but I like different aspects of the Knicks over Chicago, we can talk about those at another point if it means anything.

    48. ruruland

      And we’re talking two years ago, not the Rose-less Hamilton squad of last season. The Bulls paced for 60 wins while playing most of their games without Rose.

    49. Z-man

      Could you have imagined 6 or 7 years ago that the day would come when the most pessimistic projection from a regular on this site would be 48-34? Hallelujah!

    50. Z-man

      FWIW, as optimistic as I am, I just don’t see 60 wins. If I had to create a 4-game spread for Knicks wins, it would be 52-56, with an over-under of 53 1/2 and a ceiling of 58 games. There’s a lot of very good teams out there, and a lot of teams with enough to beat anyone on any given night, e.g. Golden State, Toronto, Milwaukee, even Cleveland. I’d be surprised if anyone but Miami won 60 games.

    51. Z-man

      The regular season goal should be getting the 2 or 3 seed so that we can avoid Miami in the first two rounds (assuming Miami gets the 1 seed.) It’s a good goal because 1. it would mean we played very,very well all season and would have home court in the first round vs. a lesser team, then home court in the second round. If we do all that, we would be ready to play Miami in the ECF. Anything less than that would indicate that something significant went wrong, unless due to a rash of recoverable strains and sprains to key players. In other words, if we’re relatively healthy and only win 52 games, that would not bode well for playoff success unless Kid and Camby were playing possum or something.

    52. ruruland

      Z-man: Could you have imagined 6 or 7 years ago that the day would come when the most pessimistic projection from a regular on this site would be 48-34? Hallelujah!

      yeah, but the Knicks aren’t the Nuggets. The Knicks are permanentely stuck with this roster and the Nuggets can rebuild/reload at any point.

    53. BigBlueAL

      ruruland: yeah, but the Knicks aren’t the Nuggets. The Knicks are permanentely stuck with this roster and the Nuggets can rebuild/reload at any point.

      At least its just for 3 years unlike the Nets who are stuck with their current roster for the next 4-5 years.

    54. BigBlueAL

      Im optimistic as well but I dont like being too optimistic so I will set the Knicks over/under win total at 50. Anything less I would be a bit disappointed (really disappointed if its like 43-45 wins and the 6-8 seed, 47-49 with at least a 5 seed I wont be too upset).

      Anything over 50 I will be thrilled with. I dont think it will take that many wins in the East to get a 2-3 seed so even winning 50 exactly should be enough to get the 3 seed at least (last time the Knicks won 50 was in 1999-2000 when they won exactly 50 and got the 3 seed).

    55. Z-man

      BigBlueAL: I dont think it will take that many wins in the East to get a 2-3 seed so even winning 50 exactly should be enough to get the 3 seed at least (last time the Knicks won 50 was in 1999-2000 when they won exactly 50 and got the 3 seed).

      It is the exception rather than the rule that a team winning 50 games gets the 2 or 3 seed. More importantly, if we go 50-32, the chances of us getting past the second round of the playoffs are minimal. Since this is an “all or nothing” year, I would be pretty disappointed with 50 wins.

    56. Z-man

      I should clarify…not so much because of the record or the seeding, but that losing 32 games would indicate that the team didn’t gel as hoped.

    57. BigBlueAL

      Z-man: It is the exception rather than the rule that a team winning 50 games gets the 2 or 3 seed. More importantly, if we go 50-32, the chances of us getting past the second round of the playoffs are minimal. Since this is an “all or nothing” year, I would be pretty disappointed with 50 wins.

      In the last 12 seasons when 82 games was played in the East 50 wins was enough for at least the 4 seed in 11 of the 12 seasons. 50 wins was enough for the 3rd best record in the East in 8 of the 12 seasons.

      The Heat are a lock for the 1 seed but with Rose out for possibly half the season what other team is a lock to win 50?? Boston and Indiana?? Knicks, Nets and Hawks?? The East isnt as bad as it has been in the past where 50 wins was good enough for the 1 seed and 36 wins enough for the 8 seed but it isnt that top heavy this season I dont think. I think 50 wins exactly will be enough for a 3 seed, 4th seed at worst which means the Knicks should at least make it to the 2nd round.

    58. BigBlueAL

      Z-man:
      I should clarify…not so much because of the record or the seeding, but that losing 32 games would indicate that the team didn’t gel as hoped.

      I dunno, 50 wins has always been considered a pretty good regular season. The Knicks in their franchise history have only won 50 games in a season 12 times. 6 of those 12 times came in the 90s. So winning 50 games would make this one of the better regular season Knick teams in franchise history.

    59. BigBlueAL

      Shit its even worse when you look at the seasons the NBA didnt play 82 games. Only twice in those seasons did the Knicks have a win % of a 50 win team in an 82 game season. So in only 14 of the 67 seasons in franchise history the Knicks had a 50 win team in the regular season. Damn that sucks.

    60. ruruland

      BigBlueAL: At least its just for 3 years unlike the Nets who are stuck with their current roster for the next 4-5 years.

      right, it’s a 2-3 year plan and you rebuild at that point.

      There’s a long discussion here but the Knicks will have plenty of flexibility when this is over. I’m not sure that model is all that different than the one everyone seems to love, but takes an extraordinary amount of luck and foresight to achieve.

    61. BigBlueAL

      ruruland: right, it’s a 2-3 year plan and you rebuild at that point.

      There’s a long discussion here but the Knicks will have plenty of flexibility when this is over. I’m not sure that model is all that different than the one everyone seems to love, but takes an extraordinary amount of luck and foresight to achieve.

      LeBron could be a FA in the summer of 2015!!

    62. max fisher-cohen

      Knicks will have cap flexibility but not their pick. Denver can swap in 2016, the year after everyone expires. I don’t think expecting 52-ish wins is crazy. The most I could imagine from this team is 55. I’m still sitting at the 48-49 win mark as about where I expect NY to end up.

      @ruru,

      the success on offense that the Knicks had post-trade was impressive. The big difference though was Amar’e was still playing a lot of minutes at center. Also of note, we had Fields and Douglas both playing WELL then, and we had Billups, who whatever his flaws as a PnR point, is the best PG the Knicks have had since… Marbury’s second year here?

    63. ruruland

      The Knicks get worse from last year?

      I’m certainly not arguing that the Knicks will post a 115 PTs per 100 possessions and lead the league in efficiency. And it’s true that Billups, Wiiliams, Fields and Douglas were mighty efficient. But Novak and Smith are capable of combining to put up the numbers that foursome did, better actually. Also, that team did not have a center anywhere near efficient as Chandler. Thirdly, Felton should have a nice positive effect on Amare, who wasn’t amazing with Melo in “11.

      I said after the roster was finalized that the Knicks will finish top 5 in defense and top 7 offense. A 48 win projection would have them droppIng on either offense or defense, which is really hard to figure, injuries notwithstanding.

    64. jon abbey

      ruru, I’d like to congratulate you, as somehow you have me, a lifelong Knicks fan, partly rooting for them to go 34-48 while staying totally healthy and Melo to shoot like 12 percent, just to see what you’d say.

    65. ruruland

      jon abbey:
      ruru, I’d like to congratulate you, as somehow you have me, a lifelong Knicks fan, partly rooting for them to go 34-48 while staying totally healthy and Melo to shoot like 12 percent, just to see what you’d say.

      I’ll be here.

    66. Z-man

      BigBlueAL: I dunno, 50 wins has always been considered a pretty good regular season. The Knicks in their franchise history have only won 50 games in a season 12 times. 6 of those 12 times came in the 90s. So winning 50 games would make this one of the better regular season Knick teams in franchise history.

      It would be just that, pretty good. However, in the last 10 82-game seasons, only 5 0f 20 ECF teams had 50 wins or less (three in 2002 and 2003, when the EC was truly turrible), making it 2 out of the last 16. If the goal is to get to the ECFs this year, 50 wins almost certainly will not be enough. We have toseparate ourselves from Boston, Indiana and Chicago (who will have Rose back come playoff time.)

    67. johnno

      ruruland: Let’s remember this: in the 24 regular season games the Knicks played with Amar’e and Melo in ’11, they had a 114.8 offensive rating!

      Thank you for pointing this out. I can’t for the life of me figure out why all of the experts are so sure that Amare and Melo can’t play together on offense. After the trade, their problem was not offense, it was defense.

    Comments are closed.