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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Nov 28 2012)

  • [New York Daily News] Least influential of 2012? We vote for A-Rod & Fireman Ed (Wed, 28 Nov 2012 03:56:04 GMT)
    The December issue of GQ paints an unsparing portrait of who the magazine’s writer, Drew Magary, views as the 25 least influential people from the past year. Knicks owner James Dolan lands at No. 17 on the distinguished list.

  • [New York Daily News] Christine passes on Knicks-Nets question (Wed, 28 Nov 2012 03:43:29 GMT)
    Carrying on a long political tradition of playing both sides of the fence when it comes to sports loyalties, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn isn’t choosing sides in the burgeoning rivalry between the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets.

  • [New York Daily News] Kidd unable to assist (Wed, 28 Nov 2012 03:23:41 GMT)
    The Knicks have survived very well without Amar’e Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert during the first month of the season. But it took only one game to see that it’s an entirely different story when they don’t have Jason Kidd.

  • [New York Post] Chandler reaches out for Rockaway rebound (Wed, 28 Nov 2012 02:53:48 -0500)
    Knicks center Tyson Chandler did yeoman’s work in Brooklyn on Monday, with a career-high 28 points in the makeup game against the Nets from Hurricane Sandy’s Nov. 1 washout.
    But Chandler is doing his best work in Queens, on the devastated Rockaway peninsula.
    Chandler and his wife, Kimberly…

  • [New York Post] Knicks have NBA’s top jersey (Wed, 28 Nov 2012 02:39:31 -0500)
    The surging Knicks have vaulted to the best-selling jersey in the NBA, outstripping Brooklyn’s new black-and-white regalia, according to figures provided by the league. It’s the first time the Knicks have been in the top spot since 2004. The Nets ranked seventh.The rankings are based on sales…

  • [New York Post] Kidd will miss Knicks-Bucks game (Wed, 28 Nov 2012 01:30:44 -0500)
    After a minuscule sample of nine games, the Knicks were the toast of basketball at 8-1. Cue the postseason award speeches: MVP, Coach of the Year, Executive of the Year, Player Most Likely to Open a Lucrative Bagel Shop.
    Then reality â?? and some annoying ding-and-dent injuries â?? arrived. Yes, they still…

  • 25 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Nov 28 2012)

    1. KnickfaninNJ

      I have a question for discussion. If Kidd and Felton had good synergy, how would Felton and Prigioni do together?

    2. Hubert Davis

      Just wanted to carry this over from yesterday’s thread since the Honorable Cock Jowles got back to us late:

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Did you read this comment about the coefficient of determination?

      Hello, I don’t understand the way you are interpretating the r squared value. This term means that the amount of varion explained by the predictor. Based on your r squared terms, this shows there is basically no correlation between the predictor and response. Correct me of I’m wrong, but I think you are mistaking the r squared term with the p value

      Comment by Question — April 2, 2012

      The very reason that the link I posted is valid (that there is NO correlation between usage and efficiency) is the very reason that that entire study is worthless.

      His model’s R^2 suggests NO correlation between values.

      I kind of thought that was where you were going with it, but frankly I think all that chart proved was that if you pin an overwhelming amount of information on a chart without applying some intelligent level of differentiation the result will be a hodge podge of unrelated data points. I understand you don’t want to cherry pick, but you do have to categorize. There are so many reasons for FGA to spike and if you throw them all together without context you’re not really studying anything.

      If you wanted to do a study on heart failure vs diet, for instance, you wouldn’t include all the people in the world. You’d break it down among Men & Women, age groups, etc. If you included all people alive, you would probably find that there is close to 0 correlation between heart failure and an unhealthy diet. But that doesn’t mean you proved that the two have nothing to do with each other.

    3. Hubert Davis

      Also, this seems like a discussion I wandered into that has been going on for a while. If your overall point is that we should use Tyson Chandler more, I absolutely agree with you. But if you were trying to prove that more FGA’s would not reduce his remarkable efficiency, I don’t feel like that chart accomplished your objective.

    4. Brian Cronin

      Also, this seems like a discussion I wandered into that has been going on for a while.

      Hehe, whenever a new poster unknowingly discusses one of “trigger topics” we should throw up the following image…

    5. iserp

      Yes, if you want to prove a point with a plot of that characteristic, you should compare it with some kind of expectations. FGA and %TS will vary randomly from game to game, so even if you expect some kind of correlation between usage and efficiency, you might not see it. So you can try a few ideas:

      – Use the eFG% combined with the average FT% of the guy (weighted by the number of free throws per possesion). You can take some of the noise (variations in the FT% rate from game to game), out of the plot.

      – FGA per game correlate with minutes played, which has nothing to do with usage, and brings noise of its own. Use FGA per possesion played, you take more noise out of the equation.

      – We are not testing assisted baskets and putbacks efficiency. This kind of shots (under the model we are trying to test) are made with really high efficiency, and you always take all you can. So if we could deduce assisted baskets and offensive rebounds that lead to putbacks out of FGA and efficiency, we would eliminate the noise that brings to the plot.

      Now, if our model is right and we have refined this points, should our model show perfect correlation? Bluntly no, from game to game there will still be a lot of variance.

      What do we have to do now? We have to predict what kind of plot we would have if our model is right and if our model is wrong. Then we should compare it with real data points, and see where does it lie. If we got that our model is right (or wrong), we still have work to do. We have to look what is the likelihood that it happened by chance. If that likelihood is really small, then we can start talking that the model is right (or wrong)

    6. d-mar

      Someone in the last thread noted that Chandler had only 3 defensive rebounds and Evans and Lopez had 13 offensive rebounds combined. I do think Chandler needs to do a better job on the boards, but I swear that 4 of Evans’ 6 off. boards came while Camby was on the court (and by on the court I mean in a stationary position).

      Now that Bibby is gone, we may have to start referring to him as “The Corpse of Marcus Camby”

    7. Robtachi

      I’ve gotta say, 13 games into the season, and having played quite a bit of NBA 2K13, the Knicks’ new duds have gone from “Meh, better, but what the fuck is up with (this and that nitpick)” to “solid”.

    8. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: http://www.thenbageek.com/articles/the-value-of-shots-taken

      No one advocates for blind adherence to any statistic, but Chandler, Faried, Leonard, George, and Hill would be a dreamy starting five.

      Those 5 guys FGA/36 and FTA/36 from last year when they put up the efficiency numbers that earned there way into this “dream” lineup:
      Chandler: 6.2, 5.5
      Faried: 10.7, 5.7
      Leonard: 9.5, 2.1
      George: 11.7, 3.3
      Hill: 10.7, 3.3

      In total that’s 48.8 shots and 19.9 FTA. By comparison the Knicks current starting lineup averages a combined 59 shots per 36 minutes and 17.4 FTA. Assuming a relatively similar distribution of bench and starter shots that leaves us short about 9 possessions a game. So even ignoring the different kind of shots those guys may or may not have to take once they take a full creative load, each of those guys is going to have to start putting up 2 shots more per 36 minutes on average than they do now.

      What kind of effect might that have on their efficiency? Interestingly enough two of those players play on the Pacers. A team that saw their relatively low efficiency star go down. Consequently both of them have raised their FGA/36 by almost exactly 2 shots. George Hill has seen his TS% go from .557 to .504. Paul George from .555 to .518. Anecdotal evidence obviously, but compelling to my eyes at least.

    9. Z-man

      Getting back to jon abbey’s point re: Felton’s poor shooting benefitting Chandler, I would argue that if Felton made his shots, that would open up more opportunities for Chandler to receive passes at point-blank range for dunks, so now you’d have both Chandler and Felton shooting at high efficiency. One does not necessarily lead to the other.

    10. JC Knickfan

      Juany8:
      As far as the whole “crediting Felton for part of Chandler’s scoring”, I talked about it with Jon Abbey some, but I really think the way to fix the issue in a model is to erase both the offensive rebound and missed shot for the individual players. That way, Felton doesn’t get credit for Chandler’s shots, he just doesn’t get penalized for making a play that still led to points. 3-13 is better than 3-17. As far as Chandler, the offensive rebounding gets counted purely as a type of shot creation instead of as a rebound AND made shot. Chandler would still get solid credit for scoring on the play, and Felton isn’t receiving points for missing a shot, this way both get credit and the model matches up better with what happens in real life. Offensive rebound isn’t much different than saving a sure turnover from going out of…

      You can’t negate something did happen. If Felton miss shot, it has count to determine hit shooting %. It would better for team for Felton just make the shoot.

      What I would love see the stat on how often does team get O-reb when player penetrates and force 2nd player to rotate to protect the rim. I my guess it would high as defense would be in bad rebounding position.

    11. ephus

      As was pointed out in yesterday’s Post-Game Thread, the Nets defense against the Felton/Chandler PNR was to stay home on the wings and either trap Felton (leading to free Chandler dives to the hoop) or let Felton have the open J (leading to lots of bad misses from Felton on open shots that he HAS to take).

      In the circumstance where Felton just cannot make a team pay for leaving him open on the PNR, the Knicks should try the following:

      1. Let ‘Melo be the ball handler on the PNR. As Ruru has pointed out, ‘Melo is quite good in that roll. Should lead to open ‘Melo jumpers or wide-open Chandler dives. If teams double off of Felton, at least he will be getting the ball as a spot-up three shooter.

      2. Have the two weakside wing players run a pindown screen to open up a free elbow (or 3pt) shot.

      ‘Melo left it all on the court in Brooklyn. In the first half, he was getting more elevation on his jumper than I have ever seen. By OT, he had nothing left in the tank physically. He made some good defensive rotations in OT, making up for getting caught ball watching in the 4th quarter.

    12. Juany8

      JC Knickfan: You can’t negate something did happen. If Felton miss shot, it has count to determine hit shooting %.It would better for team for Felton just make the shoot.

      50-70% of what happens on the court is not recorded in a box score. If we can ignore charges, hockey assists, screens, and deflections, we can certainly ignore missed shots that lead to put backs. The model isn’t perfect, but there is no reason on a putback that one player gets credit for creating a new possessions AND scoring, he couldn’t have scored if someone didn’t take a shot, and certain shots have a higher chance of being rebounded than others (This has been proven, it is not conjecture)

      The little model I made isn’t perfect for obvious reasons, but I’m at the point where I see offensive rebounding as a type of shot creation (like being able to penetrate or shoot a 3) as opposed to something that should be counted among with defensive rebounds in any way. For one, going all out for defensive rebounds doesn’t really hurt your team in any noticeable way (maybe you get less leak out fast breaks but that’s pretty minor) while going all out for offensive rebounds is a terrible strategy for any team (if all 5 players are trying to offensively rebound your’re going to have a shit defense)

      As far as Chandler getting more touches, unless you want to see a bunch of turnovers and perimeter shots from him it’s not going to happen. There is NOTHING Chandler can do well with the ball in his hands more than a few feet from the rim. That doesn’t affect his efficiency, it determines his shot selection. Chandler is easy to stop from taking a shot attempt, and if he’s not shooting it doesn’t matter how well he shoots lol. He could have a 10% change in TS% and it would barely move the team’s efficiency either way, his offense isn;t bad, it’s irrelevant

    13. EB

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Really though? They imposed a cutoff for minutes played, so the whole “benching” argument is moot.

      And if players get benched for playing like shit, explain how Ryan Hollins, Antawn Jamison, Al Harrington, Juwan Howard, Corey Maggette, ‘Toine Walker, Andre Blatche, Kareem Rush, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, DeSagana Diop, Terrence Williams, Norris Cole (and dozens of others) not only receive playing time, but veteran contracts when their shitty rookie contract is up.

      You do know you posted a chart without any methodology? I’m not going to infer from that they had a minimum of minutes played. Anyway Toney Douglas last year played seven less minutes a game than he did the year before last. This resulted in 1.7 fewer shots per game. Why did he have fewer fga per game? Because he played less not because he shot less. In fact he shot more per 36 with a higher usage, but that study misses this and situations like this.

    14. Hubert Davis

      ephus:

      In the circumstance where Felton just cannot make a team pay for leaving him open on the PNR, the Knicks should try the following:

      1.Let ‘Melo be the ball handler on the PNR.As Ruru has pointed out, ‘Melo is quite good in that roll.Should lead to open ‘Melo jumpers or wide-open Chandler dives.If teams double off of Felton, at least he will be getting the ball as a spot-up three shooter.

      2.Have the two weakside wing players run a pindown screen to open up a free elbow (or 3pt) shot.

      These are great calls, particularly the first one. It has been troubling to watch Woodson fail to adjust when something is not working. I feel like we’re a top 5 team this year, and much of that credit goes to Woodson, but a coach who doesn’t adjust is a death sentence that will be exploited.

    15. EB

      I would question Melo’s ability to see the floor and hit the open man if the other team ran a third defender at the pick and roll or hit Chandler with the consistency that a pg does.

      I thought last year he could find the open man sometimes running the pick and roll but the pass would be a little wild and the open shooter would have trouble handling it and not get a good shot off. Of course this perception is influenced by the fact that Fields and Douglas were taking the majority of these shots.

      Yeah they should give it a shot though.

    16. Juany8

      EB:
      I would question Melo’s ability to see the floor and hit the open man if the other team ran a third defender at the pick and roll or hit Chandler with the consistency that a pg does.

      I thought last year he could find the open man sometimes running the pick and roll but the pass would be a little wild and the open shooter would have trouble handling it and not get a good shot off. Of course this perception is influenced by the fact that Fields and Douglas were taking the majority of these shots.

      Yeah they should give it a shot though.

      I don’t think Melo will be as good a passer as Felton in the pick and roll, but if teams are staying on everyone else and daring Felton to shoot, it’s not like there’s going to be passing lanes open for him anyways. That being said, I thought they should run screens with Melo and JR/Felton. While Melo can’t set screens as well as Chandler or dive to the rim as effectively, he could pick and pop like a beast and can make any play from the high post. If teams try to corral the ball handler, they’ll either have to give Melo space or help big time off Chandler/one of the corners.

      Even better, I’d like to see New York go full Dallas Mavericks mode and start running staggered screens with Felton/JR. Dallas ran this play to tremendous effect with Dirk, Chandler, and Terry, and while Melo isn’t the shooter Dirk is, he’s far more dynamic

    17. yellowboy90

      Juany8: I don’t think Melo will be as good a passer as Felton in the pick and roll, but if teams are staying on everyone else and daring Felton to shoot, it’s not like there’s going to be passing lanes open for him anyways. That being said, I thought they should run screens with Melo and JR/Felton. While Melo can’t set screens as well as Chandler or dive to the rim as effectively, he could pick and pop like a beast and can make any play from the high post. If teams try to corral the ball handler, they’ll either have to give Melo space or help big time off Chandler/one of the corners.

      Even better, I’d like to see New York go full Dallas Mavericks mode and start running staggered screens with Felton/JR. Dallas ran this play to tremendous effect with Dirk, Chandler, and Terry, and while Melo isn’t the shooter Dirk is, he’s far more dynamic

      Last year when Melo would screen for Lin it almost always ended in a basket or a trip to the free throw line. I too wonder why Melo doesn’t run more PnRs up top with the Pgs.

    18. ephus

      yellowboy90: Last year when Melo would screen for Lin it almost always ended in a basket or a trip to the free throw line. I too wonder why Melo doesn’t run more PnRs up top with the Pgs.

      The problem if you put ‘Melo into the PnR as the dive man is that teams will blitz the play by sending three defenders, challenging Chandler (or whoever is playing the 5) to make a jump shot from outside of the lane.

    19. nicos

      Melo and Chandler ran the pnr very successfully early in the year last year- both Chandler and Melo scored well off of it but it never seemed that Melo liked running it (I think that Melo’s reluctance to run the pnr was one of the bones of contention between he and D’A). What you give up with Melo rather than Felton is the kicks out to the perimeter for threes- Melo is great at kicking to the perimeter out of double teams but not nearly as good off of the dribble. That said, given the way the Nets played the pnr, those looks were gone anyway so it would have made sense to at least try a Melo/Chandler pnr (though Wallace is a much tougher guy to create separation on/lob over than DWill).

    20. Z-man

      So, would anyone agree with me in saying that Kidd being out could be a good thing for Felton? At the end of the day, the ball is going to be his for the most part, so learning how to play more efficiently w/o Kidd babysitting him might force him to step up as a PG. I would also like to see a bit more of James White, hopefully he gets some of Kidd’s 2-guard minutes.

      Two other things:

      1. JR’s TS% has plummeted lately, so felton has to figure out a way to get him going. He had almost zero quality touches during the Nets game.

      2. Camby is woefully out of NBA basketball shape. I wonder if Woody is irate with him because he feels that Camby reported out of shape and then pulled a calf muscle because of it, compounding the problem because with the sore calf, he only got more out of shape. The guy looked like an old, slow Anthony Randolph vs. the Nets. I remember reading that Camby was “shocked” that he was offered a long-term deal at this stage. He may be to us what Sheed was to the Celts a couple of years back, which is not a good thing. I hope not because we really need him!

    21. Juany8

      Z-man:
      So, would anyone agree with me in saying that Kidd being out could be a good thing for Felton? At the end of the day, the ball is going to be his for the most part, so learning how to play more efficiently w/o Kidd babysitting him might force him to step up as a PG. I would also like to see a bit more of James White, hopefully he gets some of Kidd’s 2-guard minutes.

      Two other things:

      1. JR’s TS% has plummeted lately, so felton has to figure out a way to get him going. He had almost zero quality touches during the Nets game.

      2. Camby is woefully out of NBA basketball shape. I wonder if Woody is irate with him because he feels that Camby reported out of shape and then pulled a calf muscle because of it, compounding the problem because with the sore calf, he only got more out of shape. The guy looked like an old, slow Anthony Randolph vs. the Nets. I remember reading that Camby was “shocked” that he was offered a long-term deal at this stage. He may be to us what Sheed was to the Celts a couple of years back, which is not a good thing. I hope not because we really need him!

      Crazy that the best big man acquisition this off season was Sheed. He last played 2 years ago and was far and away the worst of the 3 back then. Now after 2 years off from professional basketball, he’s playing better than he has in 5 years.

    22. JK47

      @22

      Ray Ray just is who he is. He’s been in the league quite a long time. I don’t think he’s just going to learn how to play PG any better than he already can, whether or not Jason Kidd is there to “babysit” him.

    23. flossy

      JK47: Ray Ray just is who he is. He’s been in the league quite a long time. I don’t think he’s just going to learn how to play PG any better than he already can, whether or not Jason Kidd is there to “babysit” him.

      Exactly. If playing without Jason Kidd was going to make him a better PG, what explains the last six years of his career?

    24. Brian Cronin

      So, would anyone agree with me in saying that Kidd being out could be a good thing for Felton? At the end of the day, the ball is going to be his for the most part, so learning how to play more efficiently w/o Kidd babysitting him might force him to step up as a PG. I would also like to see a bit more of James White, hopefully he gets some of Kidd’s 2-guard minutes.

      Two other things:

      1. JR’s TS% has plummeted lately, so felton has to figure out a way to get him going. He had almost zero quality touches during the Nets game.

      2. Camby is woefully out of NBA basketball shape. I wonder if Woody is irate with him because he feels that Camby reported out of shape and then pulled a calf muscle because of it, compounding the problem because with the sore calf, he only got more out of shape. The guy looked like an old, slow Anthony Randolph vs. the Nets. I remember reading that Camby was “shocked” that he was offered a long-term deal at this stage. He may be to us what Sheed was to the Celts a couple of years back, which is not a good thing. I hope not because we really need him!

      I certainly understand the logic in thinking Felton would be better off learning to do without Kidd because Kidd is not always going to be there, but I just don’t think that I have much faith in Felton’s ability to change his game that dramatically at this point. He’s basically the same exact player we saw in 2010-11, isn’t he? And I mean that in both a bad way and a good way. 2010-11 Felton was a pretty good player. He just isn’t going to be a guy who’s ever really going to embrace being a Kidd-like point. It’s too bad, though, as I think he does have the skills to do it.

      And absolutely yes to your other two points. JR is getting awful looks (although obviously he is to blame for that, as well – that gif from the Brooklyn game is hilariously awful) and there is little doubt that Woody is fuming at Camby’s conditioning.

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