He’s taking it to another level this offseason. And I think that focus will carry over into the regular season at a level he hasn’t experienced before.

Let’s remember, when Melo came into a regular season with this kind of momentum in 2009, coming off a WCF appearance and an incredible off-season, he was averaging over 30 points per game on 58%TS the first half of the year.

The problem was he carried a huge burden in the post/iso game (before Lawson was getting playing time) game which I think wore him down in the second half.

He injured his wrist in late December and his numbers dropped preciptously.

The key for Melo staying healthy is to reduce the frequency of plays where he grapples for position.

The vast majority of Melo’s injuries wrist and elbow injuries, IMO, have been caused by the constant hand fighting.

After coming off a monster second half in 2005 and leading Team USA in scoring in the summer of 2006, going from afterthought/dissapointment in 2004 to rising star, Melo came into the 2007 with similar momentum (though not as strong as 2009 or this season)…..

Prior to the suspension (MSG fight) and Iverson trade, which set Melo back two years IMO, he was averaging 31.6 ppg on 50.3% from the field with a .570 TS ( and no 3pt shot)….

That’s after averaging 27.7 ppg on 49% from the field and .573 TS in the final 67 games of 2005.

For a variety of reasons, he’s never been able to sustain over the length of one season.

But I think that changes this year, and Melo will be in the MVP running starting sometime in late December.

What brought his TS% down to 59% on assisted basket attempts was the fact that he had a TS% of under 30% on spot-ups, hand-offs and screens.

It’s quite the anomaly. Melo’s TS% on those three play types the previous two years:48.4% and 55.5%
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Why do I think Melo will break his career high in efficiency next season?

Alongside Lin, his assisted basket attempts will rise, his unassisted basket attempts will fall.

When I combined Melo’s data from 2010 and 2011, I found that 65.4% of his shots/fta were of the unassisted variety — obviously that’s extremely high, especially compared to other great scorers.

That’s 15 percent higher than it was with Lin last year.

On unassisted basket attempts in 2010 and 2011, Melo’s TS% was just 50.5%, still one of the better numbers in the NBA. (and you know my position on iso/post-ups and how they benefit teammates)

On assisted basket attempts it was 61.9%

The problem was the distribution, as I said all along.

If we swing his assisted basket ratio to what is was with Lin, for the sake of simplicity make it a 50/50 split, Melo’s true shooting percentage rises to 56.4.

When we add in high efficiency offensive rebounds, Melo’s projected TS% based on 2010 and 2011 data is around .570

But I think it will go above .570 for the following reasons:

1)Far more of his assisted baskets will be on cuts because of Lin’s penetration. Melo’s 3 year cut efficiency is well above his total assisted make efficiency

2) Lin’s passing ability in transition and pick and roll will create a higher volume of easy shots than Melo’s ever had before.

3) A decrease in iso/post-up usage will increase Melo’s efficiency on those plays.

4) A decrease in overall offensive intitiation responsibility will increase Melo’s energy on offense.

For his size, Melo is faster than average running without a ball in his hands, and just as he uses his strength in the half-court, Melo is incredibly difficult to stop with a full head of steam going towards the basket.

Melo was 23rd in transition efficiency in 2011, and 71st in 2010.

But once again, he’s never played with a traditional running point guard who pushes the tempo, is a significant threat to score on his own, but uses fundemantals, intilligence and timing to discern when to set up his running mate, and how to deke the defender if necessary. Iverson was a scoring fastbreak player. Miller and Billups were not “runners.”

Most importantly, Lin’s prescence and initiative pushing the tempo increases the transition opportunities for all — even if he’s not the one who gets credited for the assist.

This is the “Westbrook effect” that THCJ had such a hard time understanding.

Because Westbrook is so fast, athletic and aggressive and transition, and such a proficient finisher, teams dedicate to funneling their transition defense towards the basket.

In other words, teams lose their transition defense floor balance because of Westbrook’s prescence.

Why does this help his teammates?

Have you ever noticed how many spot-up 3′s Durant and Harden get trailing the break?

Many of those are indirectly created by Westbrook’s prescence. When a defender comes out from the painted area to try to contest one of those guys, it leads to even higher efficiency semi-transition offense–the Thunder’s forte.

So, how did Melo do in transition with Lin in the game?

28/37 on his shot attempts with 5 threes and 4 four turnovers….

Ridiculously efficient.

He made 8/11 shots, had no turnovers and 1 fta. Lin is such a dangerous pnr scorer, and he puts the ball right on to the moving target, this is going to be one of the Knicks close-to-impossible to defend plays next season (right up there with Lin or Melo as ballhandler with Chandler/Amar’e as roller).

I have strong reasons to believe that many of Melo’s isolation and post-up plays are going to come off of the Lin/Melo pnr when teams start trapping Lin and sending backside help on Melo. It will be a secondary, later in the shot clock kind of shot with Lin in the game.

This allows the Knicks to maintain the flow of the offense (very important for Amar’e) and adds quite a bit of variance to the isolation post-up. In other words, many of Melo’s isolations and post-ups will come after teams overload Lin on pick and rolls. All of this will open up a lot of weakside fun for shooters and mobile big men.

What about cuts?

Over the last three years, Melo has been one of the most efficient “cutters” in the NBA.Unfortunately, he hasn’t played with the kind of penetrating/ skilled passing point guard that increases the volume of this play type.

Last year, 23 of Melo’s 54 field goal “cut” attempts came off Lin passes….

How efficienct was this play type between Lin and Melo?

Melo made 15/23 of his “cut” shots with two turnovers and 5 fta, which is nearly 1.5 points per possession — one of the best numbers in the NBA. He was around 1.1 ppp on passes from other players.

Once again, these attempts were made easier by Lin’s passing skill. All great scorers seeking to be efficient– including Durant, Kobe, Lebron and Wade– need to have some easier shots created for them, or created from their off-ball movement. Kobe doesn’t get them. Lebron,Wade and Durant do.

It gets even better.

What about transition? First, Melo is not fast or athletic enough to make a lot of coast to coast plays…

The Honorable Cock Jowles: If you give a shit about anything that’s said by an “analyst” on any program broadcasted by ESPN, you are a fucking moron.

Stop being so disrespectful. No need to start name calling because people listen to other sources than Berri. You really get me nervous with your arrogance.

Pau is old, but i think he’ll age well. He relies in his talent and not his athleticism, and is a good passer. But he is best suited to play C, and making space for Bynum has really hurt him this year. Melo for Pau is an absolute nonsense and doesn’t address our main problem, that is our unbalance between backcourt and frontcourt. I heart that the Lakers may trade Pau for Josh Smith. Atlanta would be a nice destination for Pau.

We talked a lot this year about how assisted baskets have a strong correlation with efficiency. This has been true throughout Carmelo’s Anthony’s career. And without going specifically back into that discussion, check out Melo’s numbers on the year with and without Lin (using Synergy’s website, I simply tallied the assisted and non-assisted attempts during the Lin stretch and used basic algebra to find his numbers without him) :

With Lin: 50.3% assisted scoring attempts, 49.7% unassisted attempts

Without Lin: 68% unassisted, 32% assisted
*excludes offensive rebounds and “other plays

What is an assisted attempt? P&R roll man, spot up, off screen, hand off, cut and most transition plays.

What is an unassisted attempt? Isolation, post-up, screen and roll ballhandler, and some transition plays.

Despite all the injury issues, Melo had a TS% on assisted attempts of 59.5% (using 80% on fta) . As you’ll see soon, that is lower than his shooting percentage on those kinds of plays from the previous two years. The primary reason it dropped? his spot-up 3pt percentage dropped (as well as finishing issues)….

However, what I noticed during this period was the accuracy and timing with which Lin found Melo. The potential I see with this combination is greater than the Melo/Miller combination in Denver from 2003 to 2006.

For example…..

Melo’s never played with a good pick and roll point guard. Miller, Billups and Iverson lacked/lack the instincts, timing and accuracy passing to make it an effective play as a passer (though all three are or were prodigous scorers).

Yes, bith Ama’re and Chandler are elite pick and roll players, but here is why I think the 1/3 pnr is going to be one of the primary (new) weapons unveiled next season.

Despite playing less than a third of his games on the year with Lin, half of Melo’s pick and roll possessions occured with him.

Glew:
I live in san diego and listen to espn la and they have been killing him on the radio.

While I don’t disagree that Pau for Carmelo would be an awful trade, it is comments like this that make me realize that you should probably learn to close your mouth while breathing.

If you give a shit about anything that’s said by an “analyst” on any program broadcasted by ESPN, you are a fucking moron.

From some of the articles i have read melo seems like he is more committed than ever going into next season. learn to appreciate melo hes a good guy to root for.