Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Jun 27 2012)

  • [New York Daily News] Melo waxes on about Knicks winning title (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 04:07:14 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony is a member of a club that he no longer wants to be a part of. Along with Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose among others, Melo is one of the NBA’s elite players who has yet to win a championship.

  • [New York Daily News] Baron looking for Knicks redux (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 01:41:39 GMT)
    Baron Davis said that he is not sure how much longer he will need the crutch and the brace on his right knee after his season-ending surgery, but he is sure of this: he will play basketball next season.

  • [New York Post] Remorseful Amar’e fined $50K for gay slur (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 02:07:08 -0500)
    Amar’e Stoudemire acted with remorse after being whacked with a $50,000 fine by the NBA for using a homosexual slur, saying he was “disappointed” in himself and there was “no excuse.”
    As expected, the league punished Stoudemire for using what the league termed “offensive and derogatory language” in…

  • [New York Post] Waxing prophetic: Melo sees Knicks title in near future (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 02:49:28 -0500)
    Carmelo Anthony has his wax figure, unveiled Tuesday at the famed Madame Tussauds in Times Square. LeBron James has his championship ring, won Thursday in South Beach.
    Anthony called Tuesday’s honor at “the top of my list,” but said winning a title and dethroning his buddy James would trump…

  • [New York Post] Baron aims for Knicks return (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 01:56:39 -0500)
    Baron Davis is not going to let his latest injury stop him from coming back and ending his career as a Knick.
    Davis, who suffered a dislocated kneecap in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, has been on the mend following the gruesome injury that some viewed as potentially…

  • [New York Post] Pat Cummings, ex-Knick, dead (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 01:52:29 -0500)
    Pat Cummings, who played forward for the Knicks in the mid-1980s, died yesterday afternoon in a friend’s apartment on Christopher Street in Greenwich Village. He was 55.The medical examiner will perform an autopsy today to determine the cause of death, though as of last night there were no…

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: In a Draft Lacking Drama, Sullinger’s Stock Plummets (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 02:05:53 GMT)
    With doctors expressing concern about the future of Jared Sullinger’s back, the Ohio State forward has fallen from lottery pick to not even being invited to attend Thursday’s N.B.A. draft.

  • [New York Times] Heat Turn Attention to Draft, Free Agency (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 09:12:37 GMT)
    The scent of champagne is gone from the Miami Heat locker room. The streets of downtown have been cleaned up from the championship parade. The final team meeting has been held.

  • [New York Times] Pistons Deal Gordon to Bobcats for Maggette (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 02:24:33 GMT)
    The Detroit Pistons traded guard Ben Gordon and a future first-round draft choice to the Charlotte Bobcats on Tuesday for swingman Corey Maggette, shedding about $15 million in salary.

  • [New York Times] Bobcats Trade Maggette to Pistons for Gordon and Draft Pick (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 02:18:14 GMT)
    The Charlotte Bobcats traded forward Corey Maggette to the Detroit Pistons in exchange for guard Ben Gordon and a future first-round draft pick, the Bobcats announced on Tuesday.

  • [New York Times] Report: Larry Bird Leaving Indiana Pacers (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 02:33:44 GMT)
    David Morway resigned Tuesday as general manager of the Indiana Pacers amid reports that Larry Bird is on the way out, too.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Carmelo Anthony Loses Weight (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:44:56 GMT)
    A motivated, sleeker Carmelo Anthony said Tuesday that he had lost 12 pounds since the end of the Knicks’ season.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Bird Set to Leave Pacers, Despite Turnaround (Wed, 27 Jun 2012 00:00:47 GMT)
    Larry Bird has engineered a big turnaround in the Indiana Pacers. But despite the success, he’s preparing to quit this job as president.

  • 112 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Jun 27 2012)

    1. SeeWhyDee77

      espn.com says the Clips r in talks with Dallas for Odom but they need a 3rd partner to take Mo Williams’ deal. Could we swing Fields in a S&T with Douglas Dallas’ way an get Williams? I think he would be great backing Lin up, but is that even feasible? Mo makes alotta money..

    2. 2FOR18

      Damn, RIP Pat.
      I vaguely remember him during the lean years in the 80′s. Nice shot and decent rebounder.

      melo: Less talky and more walky please

    3. danvt

      The laughing stock thing will fade. Barkley will keep taking cheap shots. LBJ and Wade can talk right now all they want. They won and had a relatively easy time with us, but we had NO PG and still beat them once. Again, I think, looking back, injuries were what really decimated us last year. Not that we would have beaten the Heat, but, next year it’ll be round 2 against them and it’ll be a six gamer. Barkley is still stuck in Isiah / Jamal mode in terms of his attitude toward us (plus he hates us from the broom thing when he was with Philly).

      I think we can look at the bright side. We were a playoff team. They can laugh at us but at least we were there, unlike The Bucks, etc. Plus, we know we’re as good as Boston and Indiana from the 18-6 finish.

      So, all those vestiges of trash should fade.

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland: I honestly can’t believe you would set this trap on yourself.

      Do you not see the different ways your argument will backfire?

      Denmon is going to be a late pick for the same reason guys like Novak and Eddie House were mid-to-late second rounders.

      The biggest reason is that they aren’t shot creators. They don’t add any value outside of their ability to make shots. GM’s understand this much better than the folks in the Berri club.

      While they will look like amazing players by metrics that are currently available to the public, their teammates will have to do a lot of heavy lifting for them to provide that value.

      And what’s with the obfuscation of the point Dunlap is making, the same principle we’ve argued on this board since I’ve been around (and assuredly much longer than that)?

      You claim to be a stats guy, but you resort to sophistry most of the time. Sounds like someone who has a dogma problem and can’t think himself out of it.

      More horseshit from ruruland under the guise of “basketball knowledge.”

      So you say that Dunlap is smart for wanting shooters to “keep opposing defenses honest,” which essentially means that players who drive and/or play in the low post will have an easier time simply by having a good shooter at the perimeter. So Denmon can’t fill that role adequately because he makes others “do heavy lifting” for him, which is a nebulous, or what I’d prefer to call horseshit, term. So Denmon makes his teammates have to drive harder, or shoot better, or play more strenuously, except when he makes it easier for them by being a simply fantastic shooter and standing at the 3-point line, waiting to punish teams that collapse on the “heavy lifters” of the team.

      You always want it both ways, ruruland. Carmelo’s best value is when he makes his teammates better, but he needs good enough teammates to do so.

      The reality is that it is you who is the sophist. You argue one thing, and then when people poke holes in it, you try to make up your lost ground with a strangely contrary argument.

    5. New Guy

      Grunwald has done a good job, so can’t complain.

      But a Walsh/Pritchard combo would’ve been nice to have at the Garden.

    6. TelegraphedPass

      Shot creation is so overrated sometimes. I’m really high on Denmon, but now I hope he goes undrafted so we could sign him as an undrafted free agent. He works so well off the ball. Kind of like an undersized Danny Green. He gets Jet Terry comps for being an undersized scorer but that’s not very accurate in my opinion.

    7. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      TelegraphedPass:
      Shot creation is so overrated sometimes. I’m really high on Denmon, but now I hope he goes undrafted so we could sign him as an undrafted free agent. He works so well off the ball. Kind of like an undersized Danny Green. He gets Jet Terry comps for being an undersized scorer but that’s not very accurate in my opinion.

      Whenever a player is short or “not athletic” or whatever, the argument always seems to be that his stats are inflated because he “works so well in the system” or “relies on others to create his shot.”

      Yet if he were 6’5″ with the same statistics, he’d be a top 5 pick.

    8. Frank

      This argument between Ruru and THCJ has been going on forever. All teams need someone who can break the defense consistently but they don’t need 5 guys that can break the defense. If you watched the finals, you saw that just having LBJ on the block forced all kinds of shading/shifting/overt double-teaming that led to the passes that led to the open shots. If you put Mike Miller on the block (especially at this stage of his career– the end) instead of LBJ, no one gets open shots. That’s all Ruru is trying to say.

      Having seen very little of Denmon I have nothing to base my opinion on other than his stats, which look great. But we all know that most NBA teams draft based on perceived ceiling, not perceived basement. he’s a small combo guard who averaged 2.4 assists per 40 – so he obviously can’t play the point unless you want Melo being point forward when he’s on the floor. And not only is he a combo guard, but he’s an exceptionally small combo guard:

      http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?year=All&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=2&source=All&sort=5

      Since defense probably has more to do with wingspan and reach than actual height, it’s interesting to look and see that there literally have been ZERO players with as short a wingspan as short as his that could be considered anything better than an average (or below-average) defender at the SG position – except maybe Iverson, who was a PG first of all, and also had otherwordly athleticism that Denmon doesn’t seem to have.

      So he would almost certainly be a defensive liability at the 2, and so you’d put him on the PG – but then who does Lin guard?

      Whatever- as a mid-late 2nd round pick, even a player of Eddie House’s stature would be a victory. But at this pick, I’d love to get someone who can really defend, and can hit a 3 point shot. Show me 2012′s Danny Green. I couldn’t care less about shot creation at #48 since anyone worth taking will be long gone.

    9. ephus

      I do not see any chance of the Knicks getting in on Mo Williams, because Dallas does not want to take any salary back when they trade Odom. They certainly do not want to take back more than the $2.4 million they would have to pay to waive him after July 1.

    10. Frank

      @10 – if he falls to us I would be very happy taking him. He seems like a shorter version of Faried but one who can actually shoot (while being an obviously inferior rebounder). Still, averaging 20 and 10 per 40 is no joke for a guy that’s 6’4″. Big question is whether he can hit the NBA 3. If he can, he’ll probably play in this league a long time.

    11. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      I’m willing to risk that Denmon can play passable defense if he’s as good in other areas as his stats suggest.

      The guy also had a ridiculously low TOV%. Maybe he’s not the best defender, but if he doesn’t make bad offensive decisions and makes an extraordinary number of his shots, he’d have to play historically bad defense to be a net negative.

    12. TelegraphedPass

      @9 Will Buford of Ohio State seems to match that description fairly well. He’s a long wing who has demonstrated the ability to really knock down the three, though he was disappointing from the perimeter this season. He’s not super fast or athletic like Shump, but he should still be a very solid defender in the NBA.

      Kim English doesn’t have the same physical tools as Buford, but he was a lights-out shooter at Mizzou and could probably develop enough intelligence on the defensive end to be serviceable.

      DJO is a defensive specialist who can hit the 3. I’m not super high on him, but that’s probably because he reminds me too much of TD.

      Kevin Murphy is interesting, too, though admittedly I haven’t seen a ton of him. From what I’ve seen, he’s a scorer who puts constant pressure on the defense to be aware of him. He’s a shot-taker, though, and that doesn’t seem like the most useful thing for the Knicks right now. He’s a good shooter, and long enough to be a pesky defender even without great defensive instincts, but I’m concerned about his awful A/TO ratio. Not the best decision-maker. Probably would be a reasonable facsimile of JR Smith, just not as talented.

      I HIGHLY doubt Jae Crowder falls this far, but if he’s available he’s kinda a no-brainer. He doesn’t really have a position, and he’s kind of a PF trapped in the body of a SG, but Crowder is such a workhorse and his energy is more valuable than perimeter shooting, to be honest. His offensive talents are kind of duplicitous with Landry’s, but I would MUCH rather take Jae and his versatility and effort if available and S&T Landry for a future draft pick. Jae’s jump shot is decent. He’s not as on-balance as I’d like but it’s good enough to be a threat from the arc with NBA training, I think. His biggest offensive contribution would be offensive rebounding and backdoor cuts, though.

    13. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      I’m willing to risk that Denmon can play passable defense if he’s as good in other areas as his stats suggest.

      The guy also had a ridiculously low TOV%. Maybe he’s not the best defender, but if he doesn’t make bad offensive decisions and makes an extraordinary number of his shots, he’d have to play historically bad defense to be a net negative.

      If we come out of the draft with someone that can play 10 min/game and shoot 1.5-2 3′s during that time at 40%, I’ll be very happy. Anything more than that is totally gravy from the #48 pick. In terms of defense? That’s why we have DPOY TC back there.

    14. TelegraphedPass

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m willing to risk that Denmon can play passable defense if he’s as good in other areas as his stats suggest.The guy also had a ridiculously low TOV%. Maybe he’s not the best defender, but if he doesn’t make bad offensive decisions and makes an extraordinary number of his shots, he’d have to play historically bad defense to be a net negative.

      You’re insane. Denmon would be eaten alive by starting NBA shooting guards like Avery Bradley, Tony Allen, Thabo Sefalosha, and Jordan Crawford.

    15. ruruland

      Cock:
      Notice I didn’t say that was smart. I think it was a truism said by someone who has spent much of his life studying the game, and who in all likelihood is armed with better advanced metrics than are publicly available.

      You misunderstand and then misrepresent my argument. I’ve always argued that’s it’s a symbiotic relationship, which should be obvious to everyone and it’s frankly embarrassing we have to waste so much time discussion the merit of the idea.

      To say that I argue “both ways” is to miss the nuance of what I’m talking about.

      It’s extraordinarily simple. Good shooters help space the floor for shot creators (among other positive effects). Shot creators increase the open opportunities (on a per possession basis) for shot makers.

      Very easy thought experiment that’s been used many times before. Put five Steve Novaks on the floor at the same time against a decent defense. How often do they beat the shot clock?

      We saw what happened to Steve Novak in the playoffs when the team did not have enough shot creation…..

      If you have good shot creators, you should surround them with good shot makers.That’s the only way to consistently play good half-court offense.

      Even the championship teams with preeminently dominant offensive players had shooting and floor spacing. Every single one of them.

      People like yourself interpret that to mean: of course, good teams have players than can make shots!!!!!

      The game is dynamic. Carmelo Anthony’s history in Denver shows us that the vast majority of players who played alongside him had either career highs in efficiency or above career averages in efficiency……

      The frequency of good shots increased at least in part by Melo’s presence and passing out of defensive attention. This is demonstrably true and can be shown with video in the vast majority of shots and plays.

      Understanding how special the skill is where the argument should be, not that it exits.

    16. Frank

      Actually the guy I would want most is probably Machado. The ideal backup for Lin is either a guy like Kidd (end of career veteran, not worried about minutes/shots/contracts) or a heady rookie. Guys like Sessions, or even Andre Miller probably would want to show that they are the MAN. What we really suffered from when Lin went out was the offense bogging down into iso-ball, or the ball meandering around the perimeter until 6 seconds left on the clock and then force to Melo. Probably more than anything we need someone who can get us into some semblance of an offense, and hit a 3 point shot if it’s open. Kidd seems perfect from that perspective, but if we’re going the rookie route, Machado would be good too.

      In terms of SG’s — we have a lot of guys on the roster that can do that, assuming we resign JR. Shump, JR, Fields are all guys who will demand playing time at the 2 and 3, so assuming we resign JR, I don’t necessarily think the 2 is a big position of need for us.

    17. TelegraphedPass

      Frank: In terms of SG’s — we have a lot of guys on the roster that can do that, assuming we resign JR. Shump, JR, Fields are all guys who will demand playing time at the 2 and 3, so assuming we resign JR, I don’t necessarily think the 2 is a big position of need for us.

      Yeah, I assume if we draft any of these guys we also surrender one of those wings. Hell, I’m in favor of giving Fields up either way to stave off the apron. Our biggest need is a PG, considering our depth at wing and in the middle. The offense needs to not fall apart when Lin is off the floor. I’m also a big Machado fan; I think he could be a steal.

    18. ruruland

      *exists

      And Melo had this same effect last year…. Teams trapped him frequently in the pick and roll (in large part because he was one of the best pick and roll scorers in the NBA last year) and per usual, they sent extra defenders at him in iso/post situations…..

      AS I will show soon, it created a great number of open spot-up shots, the kind that most teams take advantage of. (I will post the percentage of makes on spot-ups by Melo’s teammates, it’s below 30%)

      Outside of Novak, Lin, Smith and Melo, the Knicks were an awful spot up shooting team. That didn’t change with Lin (the only player to make shots during Linsanity was Novak) despite Lin being a better shot creator for teammates in MDA’s pick and roll system.

      Shot creators create a higher frequency of good shots for shotmakers. But the Knicks supporting cast, outside of the aforementioned players, couldn’t make shots all alone in an open gym, so there were no good shots to be created (many of the Knicks spot up shots were uncontested)….

      Fields is a very unique backcourt player who does not benefit from a drive and kick or inside-out shot creator.

      The rest: Bibby, Douglas, Jorts, Shumpert, Davis, Walker ….. All of these guys were simply awful in the kind of catch and shoot roles that support players play when combined with traditional shot creators.

      The Heat would have had no chance at winning an NBA title if they were surrounded by that kind of shooting. No team does.

    19. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      I’m willing to risk that Denmon can play passable defense if he’s as good in other areas as his stats suggest.

      The guy also had a ridiculously low TOV%. Maybe he’s not the best defender, but if he doesn’t make bad offensive decisions and makes an extraordinary number of his shots, he’d have to play historically bad defense to be a net negative.

      I think Denmon would be a good add, too.

      This team’s biggest weakness — by a long shot— was shooting and floor spacing. Some of that is not playing Novak enough early in the year, some of it was having Smith and Melo play on the ball too much.

      The Knicks are likely not in position to find a the ideal role player– a guy who can both defend, make floor plays and spot up…..

      But with Shump and a rim protector, you go for the shooting and not the athletic/long offensive projects or guys who were primarily on-ball creators.

    20. ruruland

      TelegraphedPass:
      Shot creation is so overrated sometimes. I’m really high on Denmon, but now I hope he goes undrafted so we could sign him as an undrafted free agent. He works so well off the ball. Kind of like an undersized Danny Green. He gets Jet Terry comps for being an undersized scorer but that’s not very accurate in my opinion.

      Shot creation is only overrated when you have the right team composition, which is the inference you read from Dunlap’s quote.

    21. TelegraphedPass

      JC Knickfan: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/william-bufordOne thing scary about Buford – really no improvement from 2nd year to Senior in stats.

      True, but that shouldn’t be too scary for a team drafting a role-player. He didn’t improve as a ball-handler and doesn’t get all the way to the rim off the bounce very often, but the Knicks don’t even need that. They need a willing defender, a good decision-maker, and a 3 point shooter. Buford can be all of that. He’s also a pretty mature player, and he’s one of the older guys in the draft.

      He’s not a player you draft on upside, he’s a guy you take to contribute right now. I would love to draft him and flip Landry or JR for Machado’s draft rights.

    22. ruruland

      Frank: If we come out of the draft with someone that can play 10 min/game and shoot 1.5-2 3?s during that time at 40%, I’ll be very happy. Anything more than that is totally gravy from the #48 pick. In terms of defense? That’s why we have DPOY TC back there.

      Totally agree.

    23. ruruland

      danvt:
      The laughing stock thing will fade.Barkley will keep taking cheap shots.LBJ and Wade can talk right now all they want.They won and had a relatively easy time with us, but we had NO PG and still beat them once.Again, I think, looking back, injuries were what really decimated us last year.Not that we would have beaten the Heat, but, next year it’ll be round 2 against them and it’ll be a six gamer.Barkley is still stuck in Isiah / Jamal mode in terms of his attitude toward us (plus he hates us from the broom thing when he was with Philly).

      I think we can look at the bright side. We were a playoff team.They can laugh at us but at least we were there, unlike The Bucks, etc.Plus, we know we’re as good as Boston and Indiana from the 18-6 finish.

      So, all those vestiges of trash should fade.

      There will be reckoning next year. I expect this to become the rivalry it once was the next few years.

    24. JC Knickfan

      Anyone know how much the qualifying offer was for Laundry Fields? I’ve seen one article say 1 million then another say $3.4 million.

    25. 2FOR18

      TelegraphedPass:
      @9 Will Buford of Ohio State seems to match that description fairly well. He’s a long wing who has demonstrated the ability to really knock down the three, though he was disappointing from the perimeter this season. He’s not super fast or athletic like Shump, but he should still be a very solid defender in the NBA.

      Kim English doesn’t have the same physical tools as Buford, but he was a lights-out shooter at Mizzou and could probably develop enough intelligence on the defensive end to be serviceable.

      DJO is a defensive specialist who can hit the 3. I’m not super high on him, but that’s probably because he reminds me too much of TD.

      I HIGHLY doubt Jae Crowder falls this far, but if he’s available he’s kinda a no-brainer. He doesn’t really have a position, and he’s kind of a PF trapped in the body of a SG, but Crowder is such a workhorse and his energy is more valuable than perimeter shooting, to be honest. His offensive talents are kind of duplicitous with Landry’s, but I would MUCH rather take Jae and his versatility and effort if available and S&T Landry for a future draft pick. Jae’s jump shot is decent. He’s not as on-balance as I’d like but it’s good enough to be a threat from the arc with NBA training, I think. His biggest offensive contribution would be offensive rebounding and backdoor cuts, though.

      Buford and English are projected to go higher than Crowder. He reminds me of Kawhi Leonard without the alien hands

    26. 2FOR18

      ruruland: There will be reckoning next year. I expect this to become the rivalry it once was the next few years.

      You’re delusional. The Heat are going to have Ray Allen next year, so they’ll have 4 players better than anyone on the Knicks. It will be a rivalry the way blue fish and sharks are a rivalry.

    27. ruruland

      2FOR18: You’re delusional.The Heat are going to have Ray Allen next year, so they’ll have 4 players better than anyone on the Knicks.It will be a rivalry the way blue fish and sharks are a rivalry.

      Ok.

    28. Gideon Zaga

      Wow you guys don’t stop! My 2 cents after not really having the appetite to post. Last year by this time no one knew the name Iman Shumpert. I’m hoping we boo whomever they take, always a good sign.

    29. danvt

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m willing to risk that Denmon can play passable defense if he’s as good in other areas as his stats suggest.

      I’ve always thought that if you’re not in the war room on draft day you really don’t know anything. You need to have been there at the workouts and be privy to the network of scouts you have at gyms around the country. Beyond that, different players do work out differently in different situations. Brandon Jennings, on being undrafted by the Knicks, talked about how it might not have worked out for him in NY. This is a guy who couldn’t get PT in Israel but started for Milwaukee.

      The Knicks did a great job with the Shumpert pick last year. They got positive value. Would they have taken Faried in retrospect? Sure, I guess, but an NBA season is a lot of data. So if you say, “I thought he was the pick and said so on this blog”, It’s like me saying, “I think the individual mandate on health insurance will be struck down by the supreme court”. Whether it is or it isn’t, I’m not in as good of a position to know, as is a lawyer associated with the case.

    30. 2FOR18

      danvt: I’ve always thought that if you’re not in the war room on draft day you really don’t know anything.You need to have been there at the workouts and be privy to the network of scouts you have at gyms around the country.Beyond that, different players do work out differently in different situations.Brandon Jennings, on being undrafted by the Knicks, talked about how it might not have worked out for him in NY.This is a guy who couldn’t get PT in Israel butstarted for Milwaukee.

      The Knicks did a great job with the Shumpert pick last year.They got positive value.Would they have taken Faried in retrospect? Sure, I guess, but an NBA season is a lot of data.So if you say, “I thought he was the pick and said so on this blog”, It’s like me saying, “I think the individual mandate on health insurance will be struck down by the supreme court”.Whether it is or it isn’t, I’m not in as good of a position to know, as is a lawyer associated with the case.

      True, but then why post anything about anything unless you’re an insider (or a basketball savant like ruru)?

    31. Gideon Zaga

      Ha! My reaction to the news that Amare was going to train with Hakeem Olajuwon this summer was the same as Lebron post chip interview statement : IT’S ABOUT DAMN TIME!

    32. New Guy

      2FOR18: You’re delusional.The Heat are going to have Ray Allen next year, so they’ll have 4 players better than anyone on the Knicks.It will be a rivalry the way blue fish and sharks are a rivalry.

      The Ray Allen thing is disheartening. Not that he cares, but I will lose a shred of respect for the man if he joins them.

      It’s premature, but I found myself watching the finals wondering how we would match up to their small lineups. Tyson would have to cover Bosh, who would draw him away from the basket. You’d have to put Melo on LeBron, leaving Amar’e to guard…Battier? I think we’d face the same challenge OKC did keeping our two best bigs in the game.

    33. thenamestsam

      New Guy: The Ray Allen thing is disheartening.Not that he cares, but I will lose a shred of respect for the man if he joins them.

      It’s premature, but I found myself watching the finals wondering how we would match up to their small lineups.Tyson would have to cover Bosh, who would draw him away from the basket.You’d have to put Melo on LeBron, leaving Amar’e to guard…Battier? I think we’d face the same challenge OKC did keeping our two best bigs in the game.

      On the Ray Allen thing I’m curious why that would cause you to lose respect for him. Guys taking less money and a smaller role to try to win a championship is something players are generally lauded for, except, it seems, when the place they’re going is Miami.

      As for the matchup I think the lineups they figured out as the playoffs wore on are going to pose big problems for everyone in the league, and we’re no exception. The only positive thing I’d say is that if Woodson has the stones to plant Amare on the bench for long periods we can actually match up with it decently well because Melo is one of the few guys who can reasonably guard LBJ inside and out and play the 4 without giving up a ton on the boards. A Lin, Shump, Novak (Or JR), Melo, Tyson lineup is actually a decent matchup for their closing lineup of Chalmers, Wade, Battier, LBJ and Bosh. Shump sticks Wade. Melo sticks LBJ. Novak hides on Battier.

    34. Nick C.

      thenamestsam: (Quote

      nah. I lost respect for Malone and Payton when they cherry picked the Lakers. I disliked Clemens even more when he wheedled his way to the Yankees.

    35. TelegraphedPass

      It’s really quite amazing how well Luc Richard Mbah a Moute would fit on this team. I wonder how attached the Bucks are to him. Would they like a Landry Fields or a JR Smith?

    36. 2FOR18

      TelegraphedPass:
      It’s really quite amazing how well Luc Richard Mbah a Moute would fit on this team. I wonder how attached the Bucks are to him. Would they like a Landry Fields or a JR Smith?

      I had to laugh at the thought of Skiles coaching JR :)

    37. Frank

      New Guy: The Ray Allen thing is disheartening. Not that he cares, but I will lose a shred of respect for the man if he joins them.

      To be honest, I’m not sure that Ray Allen will end up with Miami. I think he loves playing in Boston and he is trying to get Ainge to give their big 3 another run at it. With a couple friendlier calls and without the Bradley injury, they very easily could be NBA champs right now. It’s no surprise that he is using the threat of signing with Boston’s biggest rivals in the East (NYK/MIA). At the end of the day I feel like he and KG will resign in Boston, even if it’s for 1 year, and Boston will carry their cap space over to 2013 when all the huge FAs are on the market. At least that’s what I would do if I were Boston. They’re not getting DWill, and there are no other franchise-type FAs this year IMHO.

      They can easily make it worth Allen and KG’s time by giving them more than they would get on the open market for this year (ie. say 8-9M for Allen and 12 million for KG), and they’d still have enough cap space left over to have the room exception and sign all their own vet’s minimum guys.

    38. BigBlueAL

      From what Ive read Ray Allen isnt going to a team to come off the bench. He aint starting for the Heat thats for sure.

    39. Frank

      thenamestsam: A Lin, Shump, Novak (Or JR), Melo, Tyson lineup is actually a decent matchup for their closing lineup of Chalmers, Wade, Battier, LBJ and Bosh. Shump sticks Wade. Melo sticks LBJ. Novak hides on Battier.

      Um, you actually forgot our highest played player — Amare Stoudemire. =)

      I am looking forward to STAT having a bounceback year. I think the way this year went down will not sit well with him, and we’ll see a reenergized STAT in 12-13. He’ll come back lighter, faster, more explosive, and I think we will definitely see his midrange J come back. There were lots of extenuating circumstances last year that hopefully will not repeat themselves in 12-13. If he can totally buy in at the defensive end also, he may actually come somewhere near justifying his huge contract.

    40. ruruland

      TelegraphedPass:
      It’s really quite amazing how well Luc Richard Mbah a Moute would fit on this team. I wonder how attached the Bucks are to him. Would they like a Landry Fields or a JR Smith?

      SMith> MaM

    41. Frank

      ruruland: SMith> MaM

      true but we do need another wing defender to put on the LBJ’s of the world. As we saw in the ECF and NBA finals, anyone who is forced to guard Lebron regularly finds themselves in foul trouble (Pierce, KD). That’s why part of me hopes Boston blows up their team and we sign Pietrus on the cheap.

    42. danvt

      2FOR18: True, but then why post anything about anything unless you’re an insider

      Just looking for an ounce of humility here and there.

    43. TelegraphedPass

      ruruland: SMith> MaM

      Do you think Smith’s strengths are more valuable to this team than MaM’s would be? Luc is such a versatile defender, and can guard either forward spot naturally. He also doesn’t require touches on offense at all, and almost a quarter of his offensive possessions come off of cuts. Any team looking to find a way to counter Miami’s (and OKC’s for that matter) smallball lineups would benefit from having MaM.

      I can’t think of a single prospect in the draft similar to MaM. I was trying to imagine a second round steal that could fill a similar role, and literally the only one that came to mind was Jae Crowder except Jae isn’t nearly as long as Luc.

    44. ephus

      The crazy idea I keep coming back to is Atlanta sending Joe Johnson to the Clippers in return for Billups. The Clippers can make this work if they resign Billups to a three year deal (with only the first year guaranteed) for $17 million (which they can do even if the NBA wins the appeal of the Early Bird arbitration). The Hawks get out of their salary cap bind after this year. Billups front loads as much money as he would get from a 3 year MLE into one season. And the Clippers put together a team that could challenge the Thunder in the coming years.

    45. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      danvt: I’ve always thought that if you’re not in the war room on draft day you really don’t know anything.You need to have been there at the workouts and be privy to the network of scouts you have at gyms around the country.Beyond that, different players do work out differently in different situations.Brandon Jennings, on being undrafted by the Knicks, talked about how it might not have worked out for him in NY.This is a guy who couldn’t get PT in Israel butstarted for Milwaukee.

      The Knicks did a great job with the Shumpert pick last year.They got positive value.Would they have taken Faried in retrospect? Sure, I guess, but an NBA season is a lot of data.So if you say, “I thought he was the pick and said so on this blog”, It’s like me saying, “I think the individual mandate on health insurance will be struck down by the supreme court”.Whether it is or it isn’t, I’m not in as good of a position to know, as is a lawyer associated with the case.

      I think you’d be totally wrong to believe that NBA “war room” employees are some kind of secret-stats geniuses. It’s much more likely that they focus on factors that don’t really project to NBA success at all.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/08/the-basketball-college-players-guide-to-getting-paid/

    46. New Guy

      ephus:
      The crazy idea I keep coming back to is Atlanta sending Joe Johnson to the Clippers in return for Billups.The Clippers can make this work if they resign Billups to a three year deal (with only the first year guaranteed) for $17 million (which they can do even if the NBA wins the appeal of the Early Bird arbitration).The Hawks get out of their salary cap bind after this year.Billups front loads as much money as he would get from a 3 year MLE into one season. And the Clippers put together a team that could challenge the Thunder in the coming years.

      That sounds rich for Donald Sterling.

      In year 2 of that plan, Chris Paul, Joe Johnson, Blake Griffen, and DeAndre Jordan alone would make $64 million.

    47. 2FOR18

      If basketball management is anything like corporate management, then most of these guys base their decision making on trying to cover their ass.

    48. danvt

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I think you’d be totally wrong to believe that NBA “war room” employees are some kind of secret-stats geniuses. It’s much more likely that they focus on factors that don’t really project to NBA success at all.

      Well I’m sure they’d be pleased to know that smarter people then them are “willing to risk that Denmon will play passable defense if he’s as good in other areas as his stats suggest.”

    49. ephus

      New Guy: That sounds rich for Donald Sterling.
      In year 2 of that plan, Chris Paul, Joe Johnson, Blake Griffen, and DeAndre Jordan alone would make $64 million.

      Absolutely true, but it may be the best opportunity to bring in the additional talent needed to retain Chris Paul after next year. If Paul does not think that the Clippers have a chance to win a championship, I do not see him sticking around. And without Chris Paul, Blake Griffen leaves a year later.

    50. DRed

      I’d love us to get Crowder. If he were 3″ taller he’d be a lottery pick. Obviously, he isn’t, and being a 6’4″ frontcourt player in the NBA is not exactly an easy thing to be. But he played in the big east and put up fantastic stats-he’s certainly a good roll of the dice in the 2nd round.

    51. cgreene

      In regards to guarding the Heat lineups I think we could throw up a zone that could work pretty well. It would close off LeBron’s post game and force he and Wade to shoot a little more from the outside. You give up more lanes for driving but at least that keeps Tyson low to defend the drivers. Not sure why OKC didn’t try that more. Especially to hide KD’s defense… which by the way as very very exposed.

    52. ephus

      The problem with playing a zone against Miami is that teams do not practice zone regularly throughout the year. A badly implemented zone, even by one player, is a license for an offense to score at will. Playing an NBA zone is much trickier than playing the Syracuse 2-3, because of the NBA defensive 3 second rule. The Knicks considered going zone against Miami during the playoffs, but the results in practice apparently were horrible, so they scrapped the idea.

    53. BigBlueAL

      I think its even more naive to think we get anywhere near the access to advanced stats that NBA front offices use. Saw Mark Cuban the other day talking about how we have no idea the amount of stuff their coaches have access to compared to the average NBA fan or reporter.

      Scouting and predicting future success of college players is real difficult in any sport no matter what type of stats or scouting/workouts you use. How was Derrick Williams the automatic future HOFer last season??

    54. DRed

      BigBlueAL:
      I think its even more naive to think we get anywhere near the access to advanced stats that NBA front offices use.Saw Mark Cuban the other day talking about how we have no idea the amount of stuff their coaches have access to compared to the average NBA fan or reporter.

      Scouting and predicting future success of college players is real difficult in any sport no matter what type of stats or scouting/workouts you use.How was Derrick Williams the automatic future HOFer last season??

      If teams have access to such incredible information, why do they keep doing such boneheaded things with it?

    55. BigBlueAL

      ephus:
      The problem with playing a zone against Miami is that teams do not practice zone regularly throughout the year.A badly implemented zone, even by one player, is a license for an offense to score at will.Playing an NBA zone is much trickier than playing the Syracuse 2-3, because of the NBA defensive 3 second rule.The Knicks considered going zone against Miami during the playoffs, but the results in practice apparently were horrible, so they scrapped the idea.

      This is exactly what Mark Cuban said the other day. Last year the Mavs had all training camp and pre-season to work on their zone. He mentioned they played zone for an entire pre-season game to work on it. This year since they had alot of new players and such a small pre-season he mentioned they didnt have enough time to work on their zone D and it hurt them during the season.

    56. BigBlueAL

      DRed: If teams have access to such incredible information, why do they keep doing such boneheaded things with it?

      Since when has sports been such a perfect science?? Baseball teams have even better, more reliable stats to evaluate their teams and players and there are still some horribly run organizations.

      Im not saying all the people who run these teams are geniuses and deserve the benefit of the doubt, far from it. But to honestly believe we as fans could make just as smart decisions w/o ever seeing any of these players workout and see the type of stats some of these front offices use while all we do is go to basketballreference, hollinger’s insider stats and wages of win is ridiculous in my opinion. Plus we dont have to worry about things like the salary cap and other stuff real GM’s have to worry/think about.

      Having said all that I would definitely take anyone on this site to run the Knicks over Isiah lol

    57. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I think you’d be totally wrong to believe that NBA “war room” employees are some kind of secret-stats geniuses. It’s much more likely that they focus on factors that don’t really project to NBA success at all.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/08/the-basketball-college-players-guide-to-getting-paid/

      I love how you link to a website which uses data from a paper which used data from 1995-2009 (many of those years were before “Advanced stats” became available and widely used in front offices) to make a generalization about front offices in 2012.

      When you’re done patting yourself on the back about stuff that happened 5 years ago, the rest of the world will have already moved onto spatial analysis and SportVu.

      The other obvious issue with some of the self-congratulation on the WoW website is that they use WP48 to predict future success, which is in turn based on WP48. If my criteria for good players is that they were blond-haired, and lo and behold, all the blond-haired players that I predicted to be good were indeed good by that criteria (that they were blond-haired), then of course my model would seem like genius.

      They also use “minutes played” as a criteria for goodness – for pete’s sake, Chris Duhon played 2200 minutes as a rookie — does that mean he’s a good player?

    58. BigBlueAL

      Holy shit, just read on Twitter that the Thunder are looking to move up to draft Bradley Beal and are willing to trade Harden to do so.

    59. DRed

      At the same time, Frank, some team is going to take Harrison Barnes in the lottery. Harrison Barnes isn’t particularly good at playing basketball. I enjoyed this scouting report on him from Pruiti on grantland:
      Harrison Barnes

      Strength: Mid-range Game

      Harrison Barnes is a player who is good to very good in many areas without a specific refined skill. His best asset might be his mid-range game, with which he had a lot of success this past season at North Carolina. “Medium”-range shots comprised 20.8 percent of Barnes’s shots, and he made 41.2 percent of them, posting a PPP of 0.824 (top 30 percent of all college players).

      Someone is going to waste a high draft pick on a player whose best attribute is that he was one of the top 30 players in college basketball at taking the worst shot in basketball.

    60. 2FOR18

      DRed:
      At the same time, Frank, some team is going to take Harrison Barnes in the lottery.Harrison Barnes isn’t particularly good at playing basketball.I enjoyed this scouting report on him from Pruiti on grantland:
      Harrison Barnes

      Strength: Mid-range Game

      Harrison Barnes is a player who is good to very good in many areas without a specific refined skill. His best asset might be his mid-range game, with which he had a lot of success this past season at North Carolina. “Medium”-range shots comprised 20.8 percent of Barnes’s shots, and he made 41.2 percent of them, posting a PPP of 0.824 (top 30 percent of all college players).

      Someone is going to waste a high draft pick on a player whose best attribute is that he was one of the top 30 players in college basketball at taking the worst shot in basketball.

      Exactly what I was referring to above. Barnes looks like an NBA SF, he played at a big school and was a hugely hyped recruit. He can’t play, but he’s exactly the type of player a management type looking to keep his job makes.
      Meanwhile, Sullinger, who can come in right now and be productive, is going to be drafted 10-15 picks later.

    61. thenamestsam

      ephus:
      The problem with playing a zone against Miami is that teams do not practice zone regularly throughout the year.A badly implemented zone, even by one player, is a license for an offense to score at will.Playing an NBA zone is much trickier than playing the Syracuse 2-3, because of the NBA defensive 3 second rule.The Knicks considered going zone against Miami during the playoffs, but the results in practice apparently were horrible, so they scrapped the idea.

      Also, the idea that Miami is bad against zone is based on one series a year ago. If I remember correctly they were one of the best teams in the league against zone this year, and better overall against zone than man (caveat: zone sample size is obviously much smaller).

      From what I saw Dallas’ zone was largely successful because coupled with whatever was happening with Lebron both physically and mentally it succeeded in making him a passive jump shooter. From the games I saw, this year when teams tried to zone the Heat they had a very concrete plan that involved getting the ball to Lebron at the free throw line and letting him make plays. From there, he can shoot the midrange jumper, attack off the dribble or find shooters if the d collapses. Basically the same stuff they were trying to run off Lebron post ups they do instead off catches in the middle of the zone. With a plan and an aggressive Lebron zone was not having anywhere near the same impact on them.

    62. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      DRed: If teams have access to such incredible information, why do they keep doing such boneheaded things with it?

      Amen.

    63. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      BigBlueAL:
      Holy shit, just read on Twitter that the Thunder are looking to move up to draft Bradley Beal and are willing to trade Harden to do so.

      Beal projects very well, but this is an awful decision. Trade Westbrook and get yourself at minimum Beal and another future first, maybe some cap relief too. Harden? Dude’s 22, right?

    64. ephus

      Pruti is nowhere near as tough on Barnes as 2For18 or DRed. He notes Barnes’ limitations, but still gives “Danny Granger” as Barnes’ closest comparison. If a team gets Danny Granger production from the #4 – #6 pick, it should be satisfied.

    65. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      And just so we’re clear, Bradley Beal is 1″ taller than Marcus Denmon, with a couple extra inches on his wingspan. Why is he a #2 pick when Denmon is likely an undrafted rookie?

    66. thenamestsam

      BigBlueAL:
      Holy shit, just read on Twitter that the Thunder are looking to move up to draft Bradley Beal and are willing to trade Harden to do so.

      I’d still be surprised if this goes down. It makes sense for Presti to be exploring it, because most likely he will have to trade Ibaka or Harden eventually. Exploring the options now, before everyone knows he HAS to make the trade may get him a better haul, and if not, he can always walk away.

      Personally, I still think trading Harden would be a mistake, but if you have to Beal makes a lot of sense. Consensus seems to be that he will be a knock down shooter, so even if he isn’t as good as Harden, some synergy with the shot creation (if you believe in that sort of stuff, if not feel free to ignore) of Westbrook and Durant might make up some of the difference. And a top-3 pick in a very strong draft is probably a reasonable haul for Harden even if you don’t love Beal. I actually like MKG a ton for them potentially, much better than Beal. Help their D a lot, doesn’t need the ball on O, hard worker, great chemistry guy, etc.

    67. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Beal projects very well, but this is an awful decision. Trade Westbrook and get yourself at minimum Beal and another future first, maybe some cap relief too. Harden? Dude’s 22, right?

      Looks like I may be losing that bet a lot quicker than either of us expected, eh?

    68. BigBlueAL

      It all has to do with having to pay Harden as much as they will have to pay him to keep him. Just read the article and its pretty unlikely this trade happens but its interesting that the Thunder might be willing to trade Harden instead of paying him.

    69. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: Consensus seems to be that he will be a knock down shooter

      Often touted as an excellent jump shooter, Beal ranked 5th worst among the 21 players in this group in shooting efficiency pulling up off the dribble (0.615 Points Per-Possession) and below average off the catch (1.074 PPP vs. 1.12 PPP). Struggling to find his range for stretches, Beal’s excellent shooting mechanics and footwork began to pay dividends for him down the stretch, as his catch and shoot efficiency over the last 12 games of the season would have placed him third in this group at 1.372 PPP. Beal’s numbers for the whole year do not give much credence to comparisons to Ray Allen, but his play late in the year gave teams an eyeful of his prolific spot-up scoring ability.

      This study reveals a number of areas where Beal has room for improvement as well. Scoring an above average 0.93 PPP in isolation situations, Beal showed the ability to create his own shot, but struggled to show the same acumen on the pick and roll. Ranking 5th last in scoring efficient in the two man game at 0.697 PPP because he turned the ball over on 21.2% of his possessions, Beal will need to improve his decision-making in the increasingly pick-and-roll heavy offenses deployed by NBA teams.

      From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1z2C2LRL5
      http://www.draftexpress.com

    70. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What was the bet again?

      That Harden would get dealt.

      As for Beal I realize that he struggled at times shooting the ball this year, but he was dealing with a position change, a new system, and with the college season being as short as it is, his shooting slump amounted to like 20 games. Under the circumstances I’m inclined to discount those numbers somewhat in deference to the scouts who love his shot, his high school stats etc. But you’re right that it’s something to worry about for a guy whose calling card was supposed to be his shooting.

    71. BigBlueAL

      Saw that pic of Melo earlier, looking forward to seeing him playing for Team USA. Believe they start training camp next weekend.

    72. johnlocke

      Beal reminds me of a shorter, and less athletic Rudy Gay. Similar college stats:
      http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/connecticut/rudy-gay
      http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/florida/bradley-beal

      Lots of solid players but in terms of breakout star potential — give me Anthony Davis obviously (his floor is Marcus Camby) – and for underrated star potential (Austin Rivers, Jeremy Lamb) ..not that high on MKG or Thomas Robinson, though think they will be solid rotation players

    73. johnlocke

      Yeh me too…hopefully being slim doesn’t have any negative side effects (esp. boards, post-up)

      BigBlueAL:
      Saw that pic of Melo earlier, looking forward to seeing him playing for Team USA.Believe they start training camp next weekend.

    74. BigBlueAL

      johnlocke:
      Yeh me too…hopefully being slim doesn’t have any negative side effects (esp. boards, post-up)

      I believe he said the other day he was down to 239 lbs. Still not exactly a little guy lol

    75. nicos

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      And just so we’re clear, Bradley Beal is 1? taller than Marcus Denmon, with a couple extra inches on his wingspan. Why is he a #2 pick when Denmon is likely an undrafted rookie?

      Beal is also more than three years younger so you’d have to think there’s a lot more room for improvement. That said, I’m surprised Denmon has seemingly fallen out of the draft completely- he’s a lights out three point shooter who competes reasonably well on the defensive end. Yeah, he needs to put on some weight if he’s going to play the two but he has the potential to be a really nice 12-16 minute a night rotation guy. I’d be fine with the Knicks taking him-I’d prefer Crowder or Machado- but he’d be nice insurance in case the NBA wins its appeal and Novak leaves.

    76. nicos

      Also, RIP Pat Cummings. Played on some bad Knicks teams but always played hard (if not particularly well).

    77. ephus

      Thank you Pat Cummings for great memories as a young Knick fan. You will be missed. Game has changed so much since then.

    78. Kurt

      @72
      To add to your point: when Cuban was schooling Skip Bayles he seemed to say that the Mavs put in different versions of zone and switched off between zone and man, with differences subtle enough that LBJ had to take time to read the defense. When there are different versions of zone and a switch off between zone and man, it’s much more difficult to execute an anti-zone offense, no matter how prepared you are.

    79. DS

      Dear God,

      Please make Mitch Kupchak send Pau Gasol to the Knicks for Carmelo.

      Sincerely,

      DS

    80. ephus

      Pau Gasol for Carmelo Anthony would make this team even more poorly constructed. Neither Gasol nor Stoudemire can be the 3, on offense or defense. Even if you do not care for Carmelo Anthony, that trade makes no sense for the Knicks.

    81. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, I’m all for trading whoever if I think the end result improves the Knicks. I certainly do not think that this team has any “untouchables” (besides someone like Lin, who makes too little money to be worth trading) but Melo for Pau does not improve the team.

    82. DS

      I disagree. I think Fields/Shumpert-Gasol at the 2-3-4 with Stoudemire coming off the bench does improve the Knicks.

    83. cgreene

      Jeez. Gasol is on the down side of his career. He’s proven to be extremely sensitive and mentally soft (yes. this matters). He doesn’t fit the roster. Melo at least is in his prime. Has a CHANCE to improve the inefficiencies in his game. Terrible idea. Next.

    84. ephus

      cgreene:
      Jeez.Gasol is on the down side of his career.He’s proven to be extremely sensitive and mentally soft (yes.this matters).He doesn’t fit the roster.Melo at least is in his prime.Has a CHANCE to improve the inefficiencies in his game.Terrible idea.Next.

      Perfectly said.

    85. ruruland

      DS:
      It’s like talking to a bunch of you ruruland drones.Next blog.

      Why don’t you explain your reasoning as to why this trade would benefit the Knicks… Are you flipping Chandler in this deal or is Amar’e playing small forward?

    86. DRed

      ruruland: The better question is, why hasn’t WoW developed a model that allows each team in the draft to draft a good player…

      I think the simple answer to that is that there aren’t enough good players in every draft. And drafting isn’t just about taking someone who is a good player, especially when you’re drafting a player with young kids without much of a track record. I was critical of drafting Harrison Barnes in the high lottery earlier, because I think his college career provides evidence that he’s not likely to become a productive NBA player. That being said, if I was drafting, say, 22nd and I was available I might take him. He’s still young, he’s tall, he’s a fantastic athlete, and he wouldn’t be making a lot of money. At that spot, it might be reasonable to gamble that he would drastically improve in the NBA. Barnes is certainly still young enough to show significant improvement.

    87. ruruland

      DRed: I think the simple answer to that is that there aren’t enough good players in every draft.

      That was my point….. Agreed.

    88. ephus

      Listen, I have my scars from battles with Ruruland. I have been critical of ‘Melo for his sins (poor conditioning, inconsistent defensive effort, inconsistent focus). I would be open to the idea of trading ‘Melo, even if James Dolan would not. But when you suggest trading ‘Melo for Pau Gasol, you leave the team with even less perimeter scoring and make it easier for teams to pack in the defense and cut off Gasol’s offense. You cannot put Gasol/Amar’e/Chandler on the court at the same time. Your solution of playing only two of them at the same time does not work. I love Shumpert, but he cannot space the floor at the 3, particularly if Fields is playing 2.

      If you move ‘Melo, you need to get back someone who can score from the outside as well as at the rim. Your trade would make the Knicks worse.

    89. jon abbey

      DS:
      It’s like talking to a bunch of you ruruland drones.Next blog.

      dude, that is a terrible idea. how exactly are you playing Chandler/Gasol/Amare all together? and Gasol has looked pretty bad in the last two playoffs, except sporadically against Kenneth “Swiss Cheese” Faried.

    90. BigBlueAL

      DRed: I think the simple answer to that is that there aren’t enough good players in every draft.And drafting isn’t just about taking someone who is a good player, especially when you’re drafting a player with young kids without much of a track record.I was critical of drafting Harrison Barnes in the high lottery earlier, because I think his college career provides evidence that he’s not likely to become a productive NBA player.That being said, if I was drafting, say, 22nd and I was available I might take him.He’s still young, he’s tall, he’s a fantastic athlete, and he wouldn’t be making a lot of money.At that spot, it might be reasonable to gamble that he would drastically improve in the NBA.Barnes is certainly still young enough to show significant improvement.

      Thats a totally reasonable take on Barnes. Much better than saying he cant play or he is not good at basketball just because you think he is overrated though.

    91. Glew

      Pau for melo is possibly the worst trade i have ever heard..you should keep those thoughts to yourself. pau is old, signed to a terrible contract, mentally feeble and passive as fuck. I live in san diego and listen to espn la and they have been killing him on the radio. In one of the playoff games against the thunder i believe he played 38 minutes and had like 5 boards i recall looking at the box score and seeing that kobe out rebounded him with 8. that is pathetic from a 7 footer. floor spacing would be abysmal with pau.

      From some of the articles i have read melo seems like he is more committed than ever going into next season. learn to appreciate melo hes a good guy to root for.

    92. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Glew:
      I live in san diego and listen to espn la and they have been killing him on the radio.

      While I don’t disagree that Pau for Carmelo would be an awful trade, it is comments like this that make me realize that you should probably learn to close your mouth while breathing.

      If you give a shit about anything that’s said by an “analyst” on any program broadcasted by ESPN, you are a fucking moron.

    93. Glew

      so you are saying listening to people whose job it is to analyze sports makes a person a moron..that makes a lot of sense buddy

    94. ruruland

      Finally finished up the post I said I’d make yesterday.

      We talked a lot this year about how assisted baskets have a strong correlation with efficiency. This has been true throughout Carmelo’s Anthony’s career. And without going specifically back into that discussion, check out Melo’s numbers on the year with and without Lin (using Synergy’s website, I simply tallied the assisted and non-assisted attempts during the Lin stretch and used basic algebra to find his numbers without him) :

      With Lin: 50.3% assisted scoring attempts, 49.7% unassisted attempts

      Without Lin: 68% unassisted, 32% assisted
      *excludes offensive rebounds and “other plays

      What is an assisted attempt? P&R roll man, spot up, off screen, hand off, cut and most transition plays.

      What is an unassisted attempt? Isolation, post-up, screen and roll ballhandler, and some transition plays.

      Despite all the injury issues, Melo had a TS% on assisted attempts of 59.5% (using 80% on fta) . As you’ll see soon, that is lower than his shooting percentage on those kinds of plays from the previous two years. The primary reason it dropped? his spot-up 3pt percentage dropped (as well as finishing issues)….

      However, what I noticed during this period was the accuracy and timing with which Lin found Melo. The potential I see with this combination is greater than the Melo/Miller combination in Denver from 2003 to 2006.

      For example…..

      Melo’s never played with a good pick and roll point guard. Miller, Billups and Iverson lacked/lack the instincts, timing and accuracy passing to make it an effective play as a passer (though all three are or were prodigous scorers).

      Yes, bith Ama’re and Chandler are elite pick and roll players, but here is why I think the 1/3 pnr is going to be one of the primary (new) weapons unveiled next season.

      Despite playing less than a third of his games on the year with Lin, half of Melo’s pick and roll possessions occured with him.

    95. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: If you give a shit about anything that’s said by an “analyst” on any program broadcasted by ESPN, you are a fucking moron.

      Stop being so disrespectful. No need to start name calling because people listen to other sources than Berri. You really get me nervous with your arrogance.

      Pau is old, but i think he’ll age well. He relies in his talent and not his athleticism, and is a good passer. But he is best suited to play C, and making space for Bynum has really hurt him this year. Melo for Pau is an absolute nonsense and doesn’t address our main problem, that is our unbalance between backcourt and frontcourt. I heart that the Lakers may trade Pau for Josh Smith. Atlanta would be a nice destination for Pau.

    96. ruruland

      How did Melo do in this play with Lin?

      He made 8/11 shots, had no turnovers and 1 fta. Lin is such a dangerous pnr scorer, and he puts the ball right on to the moving target, this is going to be one of the Knicks close-to-impossible to defend plays next season (right up there with Lin or Melo as ballhandler with Chandler/Amar’e as roller).

      I have strong reasons to believe that many of Melo’s isolation and post-up plays are going to come off of the Lin/Melo pnr when teams start trapping Lin and sending backside help on Melo. It will be a secondary, later in the shot clock kind of shot with Lin in the game.

      This allows the Knicks to maintain the flow of the offense (very important for Amar’e) and adds quite a bit of variance to the isolation post-up. In other words, many of Melo’s isolations and post-ups will come after teams overload Lin on pick and rolls. All of this will open up a lot of weakside fun for shooters and mobile big men.

      What about cuts?

      Over the last three years, Melo has been one of the most efficient “cutters” in the NBA.Unfortunately, he hasn’t played with the kind of penetrating/ skilled passing point guard that increases the volume of this play type.

      Last year, 23 of Melo’s 54 field goal “cut” attempts came off Lin passes….

      How efficienct was this play type between Lin and Melo?

      Melo made 15/23 of his “cut” shots with two turnovers and 5 fta, which is nearly 1.5 points per possession — one of the best numbers in the NBA. He was around 1.1 ppp on passes from other players.

      Once again, these attempts were made easier by Lin’s passing skill. All great scorers seeking to be efficient– including Durant, Kobe, Lebron and Wade– need to have some easier shots created for them, or created from their off-ball movement. Kobe doesn’t get them. Lebron,Wade and Durant do.

      It gets even better.

      What about transition? First, Melo is not fast or athletic enough to make a lot of coast to coast plays…

    97. ruruland

      However, contrary to what people like Owen say, not all wings, bigs or combo guards are great runners alongside point guards. While Melo isn’t as fast or as athletic as the one-man fastbreak players in the NBA, he’s extremely dangerous alongside a point guard who can run.

      For his size, Melo is faster than average running without a ball in his hands, and just as he uses his strength in the half-court, Melo is incredibly difficult to stop with a full head of steam going towards the basket.

      Melo was 23rd in transition efficiency in 2011, and 71st in 2010.

      But once again, he’s never played with a traditional running point guard who pushes the tempo, is a significant threat to score on his own, but uses fundemantals, intilligence and timing to discern when to set up his running mate, and how to deke the defender if necessary. Iverson was a scoring fastbreak player. Miller and Billups were not “runners.”

      Most importantly, Lin’s prescence and initiative pushing the tempo increases the transition opportunities for all — even if he’s not the one who gets credited for the assist.

      This is the “Westbrook effect” that THCJ had such a hard time understanding.

      Because Westbrook is so fast, athletic and aggressive and transition, and such a proficient finisher, teams dedicate to funneling their transition defense towards the basket.

      In other words, teams lose their transition defense floor balance because of Westbrook’s prescence.

      Why does this help his teammates?

      Have you ever noticed how many spot-up 3′s Durant and Harden get trailing the break?

      Many of those are indirectly created by Westbrook’s prescence. When a defender comes out from the painted area to try to contest one of those guys, it leads to even higher efficiency semi-transition offense–the Thunder’s forte.

      So, how did Melo do in transition with Lin in the game?

      28/37 on his shot attempts with 5 threes and 4 four turnovers….

      Ridiculously efficient.

    98. ruruland

      In sum, Melo had a TS% of 78.5 on those three play types with Lin.

      What brought his TS% down to 59% on assisted basket attempts was the fact that he had a TS% of under 30% on spot-ups, hand-offs and screens.

      It’s quite the anomaly. Melo’s TS% on those three play types the previous two years:48.4% and 55.5%
      ——————————————————————
      Why do I think Melo will break his career high in efficiency next season?

      Alongside Lin, his assisted basket attempts will rise, his unassisted basket attempts will fall.

      When I combined Melo’s data from 2010 and 2011, I found that 65.4% of his shots/fta were of the unassisted variety — obviously that’s extremely high, especially compared to other great scorers.

      That’s 15 percent higher than it was with Lin last year.

      On unassisted basket attempts in 2010 and 2011, Melo’s TS% was just 50.5%, still one of the better numbers in the NBA. (and you know my position on iso/post-ups and how they benefit teammates)

      On assisted basket attempts it was 61.9%

      The problem was the distribution, as I said all along.

      If we swing his assisted basket ratio to what is was with Lin, for the sake of simplicity make it a 50/50 split, Melo’s true shooting percentage rises to 56.4.

      When we add in high efficiency offensive rebounds, Melo’s projected TS% based on 2010 and 2011 data is around .570

      But I think it will go above .570 for the following reasons:

      1)Far more of his assisted baskets will be on cuts because of Lin’s penetration. Melo’s 3 year cut efficiency is well above his total assisted make efficiency

      2) Lin’s passing ability in transition and pick and roll will create a higher volume of easy shots than Melo’s ever had before.

      3) A decrease in iso/post-up usage will increase Melo’s efficiency on those plays.

      4) A decrease in overall offensive intitiation responsibility will increase Melo’s energy on offense.

    99. ruruland

      Notice I haven’t mentioned the fact that Melo is likely to come into the season in the 230-235 range. He came into the league around 230, but he’s added a lot of muscle mass since. His body fat % is likely to be lower than ever before. For example, an extremely fit Melo came into 2009 around 240.

      He’s taking it to another level this offseason. And I think that focus will carry over into the regular season at a level he hasn’t experienced before.

      Let’s remember, when Melo came into a regular season with this kind of momentum in 2009, coming off a WCF appearance and an incredible off-season, he was averaging over 30 points per game on 58%TS the first half of the year.

      The problem was he carried a huge burden in the post/iso game (before Lawson was getting playing time) game which I think wore him down in the second half.

      He injured his wrist in late December and his numbers dropped preciptously.

      The key for Melo staying healthy is to reduce the frequency of plays where he grapples for position.

      The vast majority of Melo’s injuries wrist and elbow injuries, IMO, have been caused by the constant hand fighting.

      After coming off a monster second half in 2005 and leading Team USA in scoring in the summer of 2006, going from afterthought/dissapointment in 2004 to rising star, Melo came into the 2007 with similar momentum (though not as strong as 2009 or this season)…..

      Prior to the suspension (MSG fight) and Iverson trade, which set Melo back two years IMO, he was averaging 31.6 ppg on 50.3% from the field with a .570 TS ( and no 3pt shot)….

      That’s after averaging 27.7 ppg on 49% from the field and .573 TS in the final 67 games of 2005.

      For a variety of reasons, he’s never been able to sustain over the length of one season.

      But I think that changes this year, and Melo will be in the MVP running starting sometime in late December.

    Comments are closed.