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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Feb 13 2013)

  • [New York Daily News] Melo out to finish King James’ rule (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 08:03:25 GMT)
    Unlike last season, when Carmelo Anthony graciously conceded the Most Valuable Player award to LeBron James long before the race was over, the Knicks’ All-Star forward isn’t about to surrender anything to his good friend.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Novak, Copeland could battle for minutes (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 00:20:31 EDT)
    Steve Novak makes his biggest impact on the Knicks’ offense in two main ways. One is that his presence opens up lanes for his teammates, which Mike Woodson discussed on ESPN New York 98.7 FM on Tuesday.
    “When opposing teams play us, they know he can make shots, so they glue to him,” Woodson said. “But what it’s done offensively for us some is open up other doors for other guys to make plays, because if he’s on the back side of a pick and roll, and you don’t leave the roll guy, he’s open.

  • [New York Times] Warm Homecoming for Jeremy Lin at San Francisco Bay (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 09:05:49 GMT)
    Houston Rockets point guard Jeremy Lin returned to the San Francisco Bay area for a warm welcome and a 116-107 victory over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.

  • [New York Times] LeBron on a Roll Unlike Any in NBA History (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 08:24:48 GMT)
    When LeBron James first heard about this streak of games with at least 30 points and 60 percent shooting, he did not immediately think about who was on the list.

  • [New York Times] Lakers Beat Suns With 4 Points From Kobe (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 07:33:31 GMT)
    Just when the Los Angeles Lakers thought their season was fully saturated with weirdness, Kobe Bryant made one shot and committed eight turnovers in one of the worst games of his career â?? and the Lakers still beat Phoenix.

  • [New York Times] LeBron James Sets New Shooting Mark Before Home Crowd (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 07:11:53 GMT)
    LeBron James’ red-hot shooting hit record level on Tuesday as he became the first NBA player ever to score 30 points while shooting 60 percent in six straight games.

  • [New York Times] Harden Leads Rockets Past Warriors 116-107 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 06:15:34 GMT)
    James Harden had 27 points and seven rebounds on a nagging left knee, Chandler Parsons added 21 points and nine assists and the Houston Rockets beat the slumping Golden State Warriors 116-107 on Tuesday night.

  • [New York Times] Jefferson Helps Jazz Cool Off Thunder 109-94 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 05:06:54 GMT)
    Al Jefferson scored 23 points, Paul Millsap had 18 and the Utah Jazz beat Oklahoma City 109-94 Tuesday night to break the Thunder’s four-game winning streak.

  • [New York Times] Gay Drains Winning Basket as Raptors Stun Nuggets (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 05:05:47 GMT)
    Rudy Gay drained the game-winning shot in the final seconds as the rejuvenated Toronto Raptors withstood a furious fightback from the Denver Nuggets for a 109-108 victory over one of the NBA’s hottest teams on Tuesday.

  • [New York Times] Jefferson Helps Jazz Cool Off Thunder 109-94 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:37:06 GMT)
    Al Jefferson scored 23 points, Paul Millsap had 18 and the Utah Jazz beat Oklahoma City 109-94 Tuesday night to break the Thunder’s four-game winning streak.

  • [New York Times] LeBron Sets Mark, Heat Top Blazers 117-104 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:30:51 GMT)
    It’s not the type of streak that LeBron James ever thought about, this run of putting together at least 30 points and 60 percent shooting in six straight games.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: Heat’s LeBron James Shoot Way Into Record Book (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:17:35 GMT)
    LeBron James became the first player in N.B.A. history to score 30 points and shoot at least 60 percent in six straight games.

  • [New York Times] Gasol, Conley Lead Grizzlies Past Kings, 108-101 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:01:28 GMT)
    Marc Gasol had 24 points and 12 rebounds, Mike Conley scored 22 points and the Memphis Grizzlies beat the Sacramento Kings 108-101 on Tuesday night.

  • [New York Times] The Knicks Are Waiting for Shumpert to Be Himself (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 03:09:59 GMT)
    In 12 games Iman Shumpert has yet to produce a defensive highlight show, but Coach Mike Woodson remains confident Shumpert will return to the level of last season.

  • [New York Times] Raptors Edge Nuggets 109-108 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 02:54:52 GMT)
    Rudy Gay hit a pull-up jump shot with less than five seconds remaining and the Toronto Raptors beat the short-handed Denver Nuggets 109-108 on Tuesday.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Nuggets’ Kenneth Faried Joins Group Fighting Homophobia in Sports (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 00:03:31 GMT)
    Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried became the first N.B.A. player to join Athlete Ally, an organization aimed at combating homophobia in sports.

  • [New York Post] Knicks coach Woodson: No need for and-1 (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 02:40:27 -0500)
    There have been rumors and gossip and trade reports for the Knicks, as there always are when the NBA schedule gets to within a slingshot toss of the trade deadline.
    So while there has been speculation of the Knicks making a move by the 3 p.m. deadline on Feb…

  • [New York Post] Mistake to move Iman (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 01:23:55 -0500)
    Practice was over. At least technically it was. But the teaching continued.
    Iman Shumpert, Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and coaches Mike Woodson and Herb Williams remained on the court at the Knicks practice facility yesterday going through an extra session of the high pick-and-roll defense.
    It’s amazing how…

  • [New York Post] Anthony won’t concede MVP to LeBron (Wed, 13 Feb 2013 01:23:01 -0500)
    Carmelo Anthony has been the offensive shoulder â?? and back, knees and intestines â?? the Knicks have leaned upon all season. With the Knicks flirting with the top spot in the Eastern Conference, Anthony’s name enters in MVP discussions.
    Though many are ready to carve LeBron James’ name upon the MVP…

  • 58 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Feb 13 2013)

    1. thenamestsam

      Hasn’t been discussed much on these boards, but how ’bout that Lebron guy? I mean god damn. I really though KD was closing the gap a little bit earlier this year but Lebron is just pulling away again. The way he has been playing recently is as impressive a run as any I can remember as a basketball fan. Awe inspiring stuff.

    2. briand

      Bill Simmons Tweet: “Fake Trade of the Day: Who says no to Amar’e and Shumpert + 3 mill for Dudley, Gortat + Wes Johnson’s expiring deal… NYK or Phx?”

      My first reaction was “heck no!” But the more I think about it, getting out from under Amare’s massive contract is awfully tempting. I don’t know how Gortat and Chander would play together though. I guess Gortat would just be the backup C, and it would be a whole lot of Melo at the 4.

    3. johnlocke

      I say Hell No. Neither Dudley or Gortat are difference makers. A healthy Shump brings more to the table than Dudley and Amare is a better offensive player than Gortat. Also not sure this trade would free up enough cap room to go get difference making talent, so this trade proposal is not a nice appetizer, it’s just a shitty entree.

      Things/skills the Knicks need, are largely on the roster, but are injured, recovering from injury or not being played.

      We need a healthy big man that can block shots and play great help defense and intimidate and spell Tyson. Camby, Sheed where are you guys?

      We need J.R. to not be the 2nd leading scorer on the team, that’s a recipe for disaster in the long-term. We need to get Amare more looks down low. Welcome back.

      We need better defensive game plans, schemes. Woody – stop switching.

      We need to provide more playing time to players that can create (start giving Copeland some/more of Novak’s minutes).

      We need to change the starting lineup: Start JR so he can focus on spot ups and takes pressure of Melo to start games. Let’s see what a Prigs – Kidd backcourt brings to the table once the subs are in.

      Please feel free to add / subtract….

      briand:
      Bill Simmons Tweet: “Fake Trade of the Day: Who says no to Amar’e and Shumpert + 3 mill for Dudley, Gortat + Wes Johnson’s expiring deal… NYK or Phx?”

      My first reaction was “heck no!”But the more I think about it, getting out from under Amare’s massive contract is awfully tempting.I don’t know how Gortat and Chander would play together though.I guess Gortat would just be the backup C, and it would be a whole lot of Melo at the 4.

    4. briand

      John Locke: I mostly agree with all of your points regarding this year’s team. Although I think that, overall, Gortat/Dudley vs. Amare/Shump, for just this year, is pretty much a wash. You give up a little bit of offense, and gain a little bit of defense.

      But in the more long term, I think this deal makes sense. Amare make $20 Mil per year for the next two years. To me, the core of this team over the next few years is Melo, Chandler and Felton. Getting rid of Amare would give the Knicks flexibility to bring in better guys to surround them with.

      Downside, ofcourse, is that Shump turns into a star after being traded.

    5. lavor postell

      briand:
      Bill Simmons Tweet: “Fake Trade of the Day: Who says no to Amar’e and Shumpert + 3 mill for Dudley, Gortat + Wes Johnson’s expiring deal… NYK or Phx?”

      My first reaction was “heck no!”But the more I think about it, getting out from under Amare’s massive contract is awfully tempting.I don’t know how Gortat and Chander would play together though.I guess Gortat would just be the backup C, and it would be a whole lot of Melo at the 4.

      I think that it’s a terrible trade. Gortat’s offensive numbers across the board have dropped since Nash left and he is also a terrible iso/post up player. The ability to command a defensive’s attention that helps create open shots for other players is not something that can be attributed to Gortat. If I’m trading STAT, who has been a beast inside since he came back, I need a lot more than decent bench wing scorer and a defensive center who is only going to get max 15 minutes a game.

      Both Dudley and Gortat are good, solid rotation players no question, but they are what they are. STAT was a superstar and has shown glimpses of his old ability as well as a new post game which makes a decline in athleticism less relevant.

      Shumpert has the potential to be a elite defender with a solid offensive game and I think we’ll see it when he gets his legs back under him. Maybe he doesn’t reach that potential, but he’s the one young player we have that can really improve on his game in a major way and brings things to the table we desperately need.

      Trading him for a marginal improvement in the very immediate future is shortsighted and in combination with dealing STAT I think lessens our ability to compete against Miami and Chicago in the East.

    6. lavor postell

      briand:
      John Locke:I mostly agree with all of your points regarding this year’s team.Although I think that, overall, Gortat/Dudley vs. Amare/Shump, for just this year, is pretty much a wash.You give up a little bit of offense, and gain a little bit of defense.

      But in the more long term, I think this deal makes sense.Amare make $20 Mil per year for the next two years.To me, the core of this team over the next few years is Melo, Chandler and Felton.Getting rid of Amare would give the Knicks flexibility to bring in better guys to surround them with.

      Downside, ofcourse, is that Shump turns into a star after being traded.

      The trade still leaves us about 17.5 mill over the cap after the sign given we just let Wesley Johnson’s contract to expire. So we still would only be able to use the same exceptions available to us currently. Even assuming we let Gortat expire the following year and make no signings this upcoming summer and sell our first rounder for money (which will never happen) we’d still be 10 mill over the cap, so the same is applicable. Basically this trade would only be worth it if the Knicks were in dire financial straits which they are not.

      Downgrade in talent and no real improvement in cap situation other than that we may drop under the tax threshold after next season assuming no player moves occur during that time. The downside is also far greater than Shump just becoming a star. That would hurt a lot on its own, but STAT replicating his All-Star form of previous seasons would also suck ass. I’d actually both of them to accomplish just that once the ridiculously amazing Phoenix Suns medical staff got a hold of them.

    7. flossy

      The proposed Gortat/Dudley trade is a non-starter. Worsens the team and makes no dent in our cap situation. That deal is Bill Simmons trolling Knicks fans, period.

      I’m a bit more intrigued by the trade rumors with the Wolves, though. If they’re looking to clear cap in order to make room for Pekovic, I’d entertain an offer for J.J. Barea, something like Prigioni and any one of Brewer/Copeland/White.

      Unlike either Kidd or Prigioni, Barea can get into the paint, break down defenses and either pass or score. He’s a good PnR player and, of course, has great chemistry with Kidd/Chandler and high-level playoff experience from that Mav’s title run. His defense is not good, so he’ll fit right in with our backcourt.

      That deal would save the Wolves $4 mil this next year and the year after, and we wouldn’t be losing anyone we’d seriously miss. If they’d want anyone else, though (Novak? Though it wouldn’t help their cap) I’d pass.

    8. thenamestsam

      flossy:
      The proposed Gortat/Dudley trade is a non-starter.Worsens the team and makes no dent in our cap situation.That deal is Bill Simmons trolling Knicks fans, period.

      I’m a bit more intrigued by the trade rumors with the Wolves, though.If they’re looking to clear cap in order to make room for Pekovic, I’d entertain an offer for J.J. Barea, something like Prigioni and any one of Brewer/Copeland/White.

      Unlike either Kidd or Prigioni, Barea can get into the paint, break down defenses and either pass or score.He’s a good PnR player and, of course, has great chemistry with Kidd/Chandler and high-level playoff experience from that Mav’s title run.His defense is not good, so he’ll fit right in with our backcourt.

      That deal would save the Wolves $4 mil this next year and the year after, and we wouldn’t be losing anyone we’d seriously miss.If they’d want anyone else, though (Novak?Though it wouldn’t help their cap) I’d pass.

      The salaries aren’t even close to matching on that. For the Knicks to bring in Barea, one of Novak or Camby (or JR/Felton but those are obvious non-starters) basically has to be going the other way. They obviously wouldn’t want either of those guys though since it’s taking a worse contract for a worse player, so you’d have to sweeten the pot, which again, probably means Shump. Something like Barea for Shumpert and Novak works under the cap but I can’t see the Knicks moving Shump for so little. If they throw in Buddinger I certainly like the trade from the Knicks side but that might be a little too much for them.

    9. thenamestsam

      A more general post related to my post above is that based on goofing around with the trade machine I think it’s going to be very hard for the Knicks to swing any kind of trade for a couple reasons.

      First, all of their expiring contracts are for very low money. Secondly, of the non-expiring guys, all are basically critical to the team (Felton, JR, Kidd) or ugly contracts (Novak, Camby). What that means is that they can’t match salaries on basically anyone (like Barea for example) using only expiring contracts, so they can’t really help a teams cap situation in any trade. To get even a relatively low salary player they have to send out either the Shump/Kurt Thomas combo (plus some filler potentially) or one of Novak or Camby. But if they trade Novak or Camby they’re clogging the cap space of the receiving team with a crummy contract. So no team is going to dump a player on the Knicks. They’d have to be getting something nice back. Which effectively means Shump.

      Conclusion: I can’t see how the Knicks can make any sort of deal for a guy who would have any impact without sending Shump the other way.

    10. flossy

      thenamestsam: The salaries aren’t even close to matching on that. For the Knicks to bring in Barea, one of Novak or Camby (or JR/Felton but those are obvious non-starters) basically has to be going the other way. They obviously wouldn’t want either of those guys though since it’s taking a worse contract for a worse player, so you’d have to sweeten the pot, which again, probably means Shump. Something like Barea for Shumpert and Novak works under the cap but I can’t see the Knicks moving Shump for so little. If they throw in Buddinger I certainly like the trade from the Knicks side but that might be a little too much for them.

      Oh yeah. I forgot that Prigs makes about ten dollars.

    11. thenamestsam

      flossy: Oh yeah.I forgot that Prigs makes about ten dollars.

      Would you do Buddinger/Barea for Shump and Novak? I think I would. Our backcourt would be an absolute horror show on defense, but Barea’s creativity and penetration would be incredibly valuable on the 2nd team offense and would provide some insurance against Felton getting hurt again. Buddinger would be a nice fit as well when he’s healthy as a good shooting wing who actually has other aspects to his game (unlike Novak). Plus he has a great contract.

      Chandler, Amare, Sheed/Camby, Melo, Buddinger, JR, Kidd, Felton, and Barea is a solid and flexible looking rotation.

    12. flossy

      thenamestsam: Would you do Buddinger/Barea for Shump and Novak? I think I would. Our backcourt would be an absolute horror show on defense, but Barea’s creativity and penetration would be incredibly valuable on the 2nd team offense and would provide some insurance against Felton getting hurt again. Buddinger would be a nice fit as well when he’s healthy as a good shooting wing who actually has other aspects to his game (unlike Novak). Plus he has a great contract.

      Chandler, Amare, Sheed/Camby, Melo, Buddinger, JR, Kidd, Felton,and Barea is a solid and flexible looking rotation.

      Yikes, I’m not sold on that. Replacing Shumpert with Barea is essentially flying a permanent white flag on defense, and how long will we have to wait for Budinger to get back to full health, get acclimated, find his niche, etc?

      Of the rotation you listed, only Chandler, Amar’e, Melo, JR, Kidd, Felton and Barea could play in the foreseeable future. That rotation is tiny and will get massacred on defense.

    13. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam:
      Hasn’t been discussed much on these boards, but how ’bout that Lebron guy? I mean god damn. I really though KD was closing the gap a little bit earlier this year but Lebron is just pulling away again. The way he has been playing recently is as impressive a run as any I can remember as a basketball fan. Awe inspiring stuff.

      It was silly of me, last week, to claim that Durant was the best player in the league. LeBron is one of the few players who can decide to stop taking low-percentage shots and show the league (and pundits on both sides of the adv. stats debate) what can happen when a player decides to play smart.

      Dude’s TS% is, like, 63. And that’s with a relatively low FT%.

    14. yellowboy90

      thenamestsam:
      A more general post related to my post above is that based on goofing around with the trade machine I think it’s going to be very hard for the Knicks to swing any kind of trade for a couple reasons.

      First, all of their expiring contracts are for very low money. Secondly, of the non-expiring guys, all are basically critical to the team (Felton, JR, Kidd) or ugly contracts (Novak, Camby). What that means is that they can’t match salaries on basically anyone (like Barea for example) using only expiring contracts, so they can’t really help a teams cap situation in any trade. To get even a relatively low salary player they have to send out either the Shump/Kurt Thomas combo (plus some filler potentially) or one of Novak or Camby. But if they trade Novak or Camby they’re clogging the cap space of the receiving team with a crummy contract. So no team is going to dump a player on the Knicks. They’d have to be getting something nice back. Which effectively means Shump.

      Conclusion: I can’t see how the Knicks can make any sort of deal for a guy who would have any impact without sending Shump the other way.

      This is alos why I do not see a trade happening. Next year yes if needed. Although the Wolves talk could be potential for a 3 team deal to take Camby off NYs hand. IDK.

      Camby to Phx with Shump. There not in a win now mold and Camby 3rd yr is non-guaranteed.

      Minny gets White. They save some money

      Ny

      Barea
      Dudley
      Oneal
      1st(i can dream) really the 1st rounder is the only reason I think about trading shump.

    15. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      lavor postell: Both Dudley and Gortat are good, solid rotation players no question, but they are what they are.

      I fail to see how a guy who’s got 1.31 PPS on the season (his career average, by the way, so it’s no fluke) is not a massive upgrade over Shumpert, who’s got a 1.04 PPS career average and is even worse so far this year. Right now, Dudley is about 50% more efficient than Shumpert (especially given that Shumpert has been absolutely terrible at drawing fouls so far). Do you think that even an elite defender can drop his opponent’s efficiency by 50% on a nightly basis?

      How can you say that a guy shooting 47% TS has a good likelihood to be a “solid” offensive player “at some point?” I mean, the guy has been an abyss on the offensive end over 2000 minutes. Can you point to a guy who suddenly figured out how to shoot after being awful in his first thousand minute

    16. lavor postell

      The only reason people want to trade Shumpert is because he hasn’t been great since he returned from injury. If somebody even suggested this trade after last season before the injury they probably would have been berated by a vast majority of people here.

      He clearly is still feeling his way back, but there are some positive signs. The biggest thing is how improved his perimeter shot has been which he had shown flashes of down the stretch last season. Also while has struggled finishing at the rim, he has shown at least the ability and handle to get to the rack. He seems hesitant when finishing, which I think is a sign he’s still a bit tentative coming off of an ACL surgery.

      I certainly don’t doubt his ability to be an elite on-ball defender based on what I saw last year, but his off-ball defense is where he gets burned. Playing and gaining more experience, while getting back up to the speed of the NBA game should improve this considerably from some of his recent performances.

      Being patient and riding out the season with this squad will give us a much better sample to make trades especially considering all the injuries we’ve dealt with. Even if you account for our elder veterans inevitable missing games both Shumpert and STAT missed major time. Felton missed like 10+ games. Melo’s missed I think 6 games. They are still kind of feeling each other out in these games, but I think I’ve seen enough to kind of agree with Melo and Woody that there is enough here to make a legitimate run if a few key guys can step up at the right time.

    17. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Given a normal minutes share, he’ll end the season below 33 3P%. He had a 30 3P% in college, so let’s not pretend that it’s likely he stays in the elite range from beyond the arc.

      The likelihood of him doing that is quite low.

    18. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I fail to see how a guy who’s got 1.31 PPS on the season (his career average, by the way, so it’s no fluke) is not a massive upgrade over Shumpert, who’s got a 1.04 PPS career average and is even worse so far this year. Right now, Dudley is about 50% more efficient than Shumpert (especially given that Shumpert has been absolutely terrible at drawing fouls so far). Do you think that even an elite defender can drop his opponent’s efficiency by 50% on a nightly basis?

      I think the spread overall is not as much as you think especially if you look at PPP. I know there are issues with Synergy, but if you take into account how much better Shump is as a defender, their net individual ratings are not that far apart.

      2011-12 Shump offensive PPP – 0.8
      2012-13 Shump offensive PPP – 0.76

      2011-12 Shump defensive PPP-against – 0.81
      2012-13 Shump defensive PPP-against – 0.71

      2011-12 Dudley offensive PPP – 1.05
      2012-13 Dudley offensive PPP – 1.03

      2011-12 Dudley defensive PPP-against – 0.91
      2012-13 Dudley defensive PPP-against – 0.92

      So on offense Dudley is far more efficient – in fact he’s top 20 in the league mostly because he does nothing but spot-up and shoot off screens. Fine.

      Shump is much better on defense – as can be seen above.
      So in net, Dudley is maybe 10% more efficient (0.1 PPP net) than Shump – that’s a lot actually. But if we believe that his 3 point shooting is real (which it might be), then suddenly he’s far more valuable – he has a PPP of 1.23 on spot-ups – good for 19th in the league. Many of his other bad stats on O look like outliers – 0.35 PPP in transition for a guy with his athleticism (20% of his possessions)?

      Shump is obviously an unknown quantity. Young guy, much lower usage than he was in college, playing off ball now, coming off injury. But the tools, attitude, work ethic are…

    19. KnickfaninNJ

      Jason Kidd was pretty bad. It’s hard to check advanced stats on a cell phone but it looks like he shot less than 40% for quite a while early in his career

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I fail to see how a guy who’s got 1.31 PPS on the season (his career average, by the way, so it’s no fluke) is not a massive upgrade over Shumpert, who’s got a 1.04 PPS career average and is even worse so far this year. Right now, Dudley is about 50% more efficient than Shumpert (especially given that Shumpert has been absolutely terrible at drawing fouls so far). Do you think that even an elite defender can drop his opponent’s efficiency by 50% on a nightly basis?

      How can you say that a guy shooting 47% TS has a good likelihood to be a “solid” offensive player “at some point?” I mean, the guy has been an abyss on the offensive end over 2000 minutes. Can you point to a guy who suddenly figured out how to shoot after being awful in his first thousand minute

    20. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Given a normal minutes share, he’ll end the season below 33 3P%. He had a 30 3P% in college, so let’s not pretend that it’s likely he stays in the elite range from beyond the arc.

      The likelihood of him doing that is quite low.

      Dude is 22 years old. You don’t think it’s possible that he improved his shooting?

      I can think of lots of guys who got better shooting the long ball – Carmelo Anthony: Denver 3P% 30.8%, NYK 3P% 38.6% (680 attempts in NY)

      David Lee: shot 33% from 16-23 feet his first 3 years, since then has been ~41%.

      “Ason” Kidd first 10 years – 32.4% from 3
      Jason Kidd since – 37.1% from 3

      Players are not slaves to their pasts. Changes in coaching, shot selection, off-dribble vs. spot-up etc. and especially practice all affect %s.

      Your insistence that Shumpert cannot overcome his college and less than 1st season’s worth of shooting numbers is one of the laziest arguments you’ve made – especially when you say “Can you point to a guy who suddenly figured out how to shoot after being awful in his first thousand minute?” You obviously haven’t spent the time to look and see if there might be someone – as usual, sticking your flag in the ground, assuming you’re right, and challenging others to come up with evidence you’re wrong. Whatever you arbitrarily think is not necessarily right. you need evidence just like everyone else does.

      btw I can think of someone who did the opposite – who looked great shooting the ball for his first 1000 minutes and has sucked ever since – Landry Fields.

      Now you might be right about Shump. Maybe he never figures it out. But maybe he does. If he does, and can get his TS into at least the average range? That’s a very valuable player if you consider his defensive attributes.

    21. Frank

      btw re: this whole Minnesota thing, Alex Kennedy from Hoopsworld (who was also the 1st one to tweet about the Shumpert/Dudley thing) just tweeted that the Knicks have interest in Ridnour. That’s interesting.

    22. yellowboy90

      Frank:
      btw re: this whole Minnesota thing, Alex Kennedy from Hoopsworld (who was also the 1st one to tweet about the Shumpert/Dudley thing) just tweeted that the Knicks have interest in Ridnour. That’s interesting.

      is Amar’e talking to the FO? lol. Didn’t he want Luke in Ny?

    23. Frank

      Novak for Ridnour works straight up. Let’s see:

      - Minny has the worst 3P shooting in the league (no doubt because Budinger and Love have been hurt the whole year).
      - They’ve got 3 PGs who do basically the same thing.
      - Novak is a legend in that part of the country.
      - Woodson said on Michael Kay that Copeland might be getting some of Novak’s minutes.

      I love discount triple-check but really- he’s been a disappointment so far this year despite his still-impressive 3P%.

    24. Hubert Davis

      Robert Sarver is broke and he wants to get rid of Dudley’s contract.

      I’d offer him Copeland + the expiring contracts of Ronnie Brewer and Rasheed Wallace. I know that’s garbage, but I think he would do that. He once sold a lottery pick (that turned out to be Luol Deng) for $3 million.

      If someone trumps that, so be it.

      Time to stop overpaying in trades.

    25. Frank

      alternatively Knicks could trade a bunch of flotsam expiring this summer if Minnesota wants room to retain Pekovic / Budinger – Thomas, Cope, Brewer, and White would work. All are expiring or nonguaranteed for next year. Cope is restricted so they would get some upside on the deal. And according to Darren Wolfson the beatwriter for the TWolves, Minny wanted Brewer this past offseason.

    26. thenamestsam

      I’ll say that I think it’s pretty obvious that Dudley is better than Shump right now. Better offensive player, and while his defense is clearly worse I do think he’d get some bump from moving back to a contender and playing for a team that has some focus on the defensive end of the court (even if it hasn’t shown in the results). It boils down to how much you think you’re losing in the long run by giving up Shump and that’s a tricky question because projection is always extremely difficult. Eye test tells me he has the potential to be an above average offensive player – his shot doesn’t go in as much as you’d like but it doesn’t look broken, he can get to the rim, he makes some nice passes at times, etc. On the other hand, he really hasn’t put it together at that end for more than short stretches either in college or in the pros. How do you balance those two things? It’s not easy.

    27. thenamestsam

      Frank:
      alternatively Knicks could trade a bunch of flotsam expiring this summer if Minnesota wants room to retain Pekovic / Budinger – Thomas, Cope, Brewer, and White would work. All are expiring or nonguaranteed for next year. Cope is restricted so they would get some upside on the deal. And according to Darren Wolfson the beatwriter for the TWolves, Minny wanted Brewer this past offseason.

      Doing a 4 for 1 trade during the season presents a lot of added complexities though. They’d have to cut a bunch of guys and we’d be scrambling to find 2 or 3 guys on d league rosters to fill in. With Sheed and Camby still hurt we would be SERIOUSLY thin for the near term.

    28. Hubert Davis

      Shumpert guards lightning quick PG’s extremely well in a league full of lightning quick PG’s. He may not be doing it now because he’s coming back from the same injury suffered that Derrick Rose is still recovering from. Dudley may be better than Shumpert now, but factoring age + contract + potential, Shumpert is vastly more valuable asset. VASTLY.

    29. Hubert Davis

      The only reason, by the way, you would want to get rid of Amar’e's contract is if you plan on gutting the team in 2014 to make another run at LeBron. Otherwise, his contract isn’t as burdensome as twits like Simmons imply. We’re over the cap the next two years with him, we’re over the cap the next two years without him.

    30. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank: Players are not slaves to their pasts. Changes in coaching, shot selection, off-dribble vs. spot-up etc. and especially practice all affect %s.

      Right. And Shumpert started practicing with the team again a month ago. Anyone know the timetable on ACL injuries? When do you think he started practicing again on his own? Not just physical therapy and knee-strengthening, but in shooting? Do you really want to make the argument that a guy who was sidelined for 9 months with a knee injury put in enough practice to add 10 points to his 3P%? Or might it be more likely that the first 200 minutes of this season — 29 attempts! — might be an outlier.

      It’s not about the realm of the possible vs. the impossible. Barry Bonds hitting 73 home runs at the age of 37 or whatever is in the realm of the impossible (without steroids). Shumpert tacking on 10 points to a dismal career 3PT shooting (in 500 career attempts) is in the realm of the possible. 29 attempts so far this season. Do you want to wager on 29 attempts as indicative of an upward trend? Or perhaps is it more likely that this is an outlier?

      I don’t see how my position is unreasonable at all, yet I think all the hate directed toward me on this board makes my reasonable arguments harder to swallow.

      I mean, come on. 29 attempts. Is it likely that he’s a better shooter? Or that this is a small sample size and thus indicative of very little w/r/t positive trends?

    31. yellowboy90

      Hedo busted for Steroids. Funny thing is I was discussing the lack of Steroid suspension in the NBA and then this plus the last time I can remember a player being suspended for Steroids in the NBA was Rashard Lewis, who was also a member of Orl.

    32. EB

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Right. And Shumpert started practicing with the team again a month ago. Anyone know the timetable on ACL injuries? When do you think he started practicing again on his own? Not just physical therapy and knee-strengthening, but in shooting? Do you really want to make the argument that a guy who was sidelined for 9 months with a knee injury put in enough practice to add 10 points to his 3P%? Or might it be more likely that the first 200 minutes of this season — 29 attempts! — might be an outlier.

      It’s not about the realm of the possible vs. the impossible. Barry Bonds hitting 73 home runs at the age of 37 or whatever is in the realm of the impossible (without steroids). Shumpert tacking on 10 points to a dismal career 3PT shooting (in 500 career attempts) is in the realm of the possible. 29 attempts so far this season. Do you want to wager on 29 attempts as indicative of an upward trend? Or perhaps is it more likely that this is an outlier?

      I don’t see how my position is unreasonable at all, yet I think all the hate directed toward me on this board makes my reasonable arguments harder to swallow.

      I mean, come on. 29 attempts. Is it likely that he’s a better shooter? Or that this is a small sample size and thus indicative of very little w/r/t positive trends?

      Gallo took years to get his athleticism back after an injury, why can’t Shump be given some time? Shump has elite one on one defensive ability and is still learning.

      Shooting is the most likely area to improve for young players. People can and do improve in shooting. Why can’t Shump?

      Shump both last year and in college played pg often and was counted on to score and handle the ball. If we limit his shot attempts to spot ups why can’t he improve?

      Last of all on a team ranked #3 in offensive and #16 in defense, why would we want to get rid of…

    33. Hubert Davis

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Can you point to a guy who suddenly figured out how to shoot after being awful in his first thousand minute

      Bruce Bowen.

      Can you name a player whose first 1,000 minutes occurred in a condensed 66 game season and a post-ACL recovery period?

      If you really think you know what Shump is, and you’re sure of it, and you’re willing to sell now, you are probably missing something.

    34. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Right. And Shumpert started practicing with the team again a month ago. Anyone know the timetable on ACL injuries? When do you think he started practicing again on his own? Not just physical therapy and knee-strengthening, but in shooting?

      There you go again making an assumption, assuming you’re right without even taking a few minutes to check it. In fact,Shump started shooting even before training camp. There is video of him working with Hopla going back to the beginning of October. There is video of him talking about how all he did for much of his rehab was shoot spot up jumpers because he was allowed to go up and down but not side to side. So I don’t know this part for sure, but it’s likely he has shot hundreds of jumpers a day for months before his return. Practice.

      Your position isn’t unreasonable. I said that specifically- “now you might be right about shump”. It’s your reasoning- that a 22 year old with a good work ethic can’t improve his jumpshot – and your lazy guess that no one has ever become a good shooter after having a bad feat 1000 minutes- that is what was unreasonable.

    35. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank: Your position isn’t unreasonable. I said that specifically- “now you might be right about shump”. It’s your reasoning- that a 22 year old with a good work ethic can’t improve his jumpshot – and your lazy guess that no one has ever become a good shooter after having a bad feat 1000 minutes- that is what was unreasonable.

      When did I say that he CAN’T? This is a load of bullshit.

      I said it was UNLIKELY. And he’s been shooting since October? Wowie. Other players have entire offseasons to work, and somehow Shumpert improves after a few months of “intense” shooting work? Twenty-nine attempts is not enough to say whether it changed anything.

      I’m pretty sure he worked on his shooting before the knee injury without improving his three-point shot in any measurable way…

    36. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      EB: Shooting is the most likely area to improve for young players. People can and do improve in shooting. Why can’t Shump?

      I absolutely did not say that he couldn’t improve. Many players improve their shot over time. I would guess that most do.

      What I said is that a twenty-nine shot sample is not enough to say that Shumpert has miraculously become an exceptional shooter. And it is unlikely, given his efficiency numbers in the five hundred attempts we have between college and his rookie season, that he will become an elite shooter.

      Unlikely. Not impossible. Unlikely.

    37. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I don’t see how my position is unreasonable at all, yet I think all the hate directed toward me on this board makes my reasonable arguments harder to swallow.

      Your hateful demeanor is what makes your reasonable arguments hard to swallow.

    38. nicos

      A guy I would like to see the Knicks go after who might be gettable is Ed Davis as he’s barely playing in Memphis- he’s a solid two-way player who fit pretty well alongside either Chandler or Amar’e. Problem is I’m not sure the Knick’s have any way to make the salaries match so a third team might have to get involved.

    39. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Can you point to a guy who suddenly figured out how to shoot after being awful in his first thousand minute

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I absolutely did not say that he couldn’t improve. Many players improve their shot over time. I would guess that most do.

      So somewhere between “name one person who has ever done this” and “many players improve their shot over time” is what you actually think?

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And he’s been shooting since October? Wowie. Other players have entire offseasons to work, and somehow Shumpert improves after a few months of “intense” shooting work?

      Let’s say Shump puts up 300 shots/day (it’s probably more). Let’s say he rehabs 6 days/week (it’s probably 7). Let’s say 3 months = 14 weeks. So 300*6*14 = 25000 shots put up.

      Now consider that Jamal Crawford admitted that after 12 years in the league, this summer was the first summer he actually did shooting drills.

      I think 25000 reps of anything is a lot. And I’m not sure what other players do in the offseason is necessarily representative of anything.

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What I said is that a twenty-nine shot sample is not enough to say that Shumpert has miraculously become an exceptional shooter.

      This, though, is true. But one can hope. Which is IMHO 90% of the fun of being a fan.

    40. massive

      I’m not sure how anyone can really disagree with THCJ here. Shumpert has never been a good 3 point shooter, so we shouldn’t value his 29 attempts too highly. Ronnie Brewer had a hot shooting start, too. Now Shumpert’s form isn’t as ghastly as Brewer, but I wouldn’t be suprised if Shumpert’s 3 point shooting regressed to the low 30s

    41. flossy

      massive:
      I’m not sure how anyone can really disagree with THCJ here. Shumpert has never been a good 3 point shooter, so we shouldn’t value his 29 attempts too highly. Ronnie Brewer had a hot shooting start, too. Now Shumpert’s form isn’t as ghastly as Brewer, but I wouldn’t be suprised if Shumpert’s 3 point shooting regressed to the low 30s

      As Frank pointed out, Shumpert for his career has been about a net .1 PPP worse than Dudley over the same time span.

      But Dudley is a finished product who has played the same role for the same team for several straight seasons, whereas Shumpert is a rookie playing under basically the worst conditions possible–first forced to step in and play big minutes out of position at PG after zero training camp for a team in disarray, then forced to step back onto the court after a major injury and prove his worth right away for a team with an outside shot at contending.

      I guess it’s not objectively “wrong,” but it pushes the boundaries of “reasonable” to take the most pessimistic view possible of a young player’s career trajectory without regard to those mitigating circumstances.

      Ignoring the fact that this team is already 3rd in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency, you have to bank on Dudley coming in and producing at his career levels right away and Shumpert never improving at all to say that a one-for-one trade is a slam dunk in Dudley’s favor.

    42. massive

      Oh, I’m not talking about Shumpert vs. Dudley. I understand that Dudley would be an offensive upgrade, but Iman Shumpert is my favorite Knick and I’m vehemently opposed to the prospect of his being traded. I’m just saying he’s not wrong for being apprehensive about Iman Shumpert’s newfound shooting prowess. Even if all he did was shoot jumpers with our shooting coach, we should wait until he’s taken a couple more 3s before we pass any judgment either way.

    43. Hubert Davis

      I can’t believe the way some in the stats-based community give statistics from the 66 game season equal weight to a regular season.

      It’s even sillier when it comes to rookies. It’s aggressive speculation to project how a player will evolve after his rookie season. It’s idiotic to project his future value based on THAT rookie season.

    44. nicos

      Shumpert’s entire career is still too small a sample size to make any real judgments about- 59 games last year with no training camp/summer league and 12 games this year coming off of about the most serious injury a basketball player can have (and let’s not forget he injured his knee early last season and may not have been 100% in some of that season as well). He’s shot poorly but at least his shot doesn’t look broke. He’s a good ball-handler (especially for a two) with a good cross-over and first step. He drives with his head up and is certainly strong and athletic enough to be a good finisher. Healthy, he’s plus defender who has legit all-nba potential. In short, he’s a guy with real potential who you have locked up on a rookie contract. Dudley’s a solid player but these days you can find guys like him on the cheap pretty easily in the off-season. You only trade Shump for Dudley if you’re sure he’s the missing piece to a championship puzzle

    45. Donnie Walsh

      Shumpert was a horrible shooter in college. Big sample. 3000 minutes = sub 40% shooting. Got worse as he aged (down to 27% 3pt shooting his senior year).

      Betting on Shumpert to become a statistically good shooter in his NBA career is a bad bet.

    46. Juany8

      Hubert Davis:
      I can’t believe the way some in the stats-based community give statistics from the 66 game season equal weight to a regular season.

      It’s even sillier when it comes to rookies.It’s aggressive speculation to project how a player will evolve after his rookie season.It’s idiotic to project his future value based on THAT rookie season.

      There are notable exceptions, but the online basketball stats community is less concerned in searching for truth than they are in proving how smart they are to everyone else. If they were, the formulas for things like WS, WP, and PER would be constantly updated as new information came out and sources of data better than the box score were established. Instead the people behind these models spend all their time creating increasingly absurd defenses for their clearly outdated ideas. Thus Berri tries to convince us that because Steve Kerr and Derrick Rose are a similar height, their offensive games are more comparable than that of Steve Kerr and Steve Novak, who do the exact same fucking thing on offense.

      In other words, you shouldn’t bother with people quoting WP anymore than you bother with people quoting Points per game.

    47. flossy

      massive:
      Oh, I’m not talking about Shumpert vs. Dudley. I understand that Dudley would be an offensive upgrade, but Iman Shumpert is my favorite Knick and I’m vehemently opposed to the prospect of his being traded. I’m just saying he’s not wrong for being apprehensive about Iman Shumpert’s newfound shooting prowess. Even if all he did was shoot jumpers with our shooting coach, we should wait until he’s taken a couple more 3s before we pass any judgment either way.

      Fair enough. I don’t expect him to continue shooting .400+ from downtown, but I also don’t think that (once healthy) he necessarily needs to be any more than an average 3-point shooter to be a plus player or provide a net value higher than someone like Dudley, especially if he can hone in on a few hot spots like the corners and shoot well from there, a la Bowen.

    48. nicos

      Donnie Walsh:
      Shumpert was a horrible shooter in college. Big sample. 3000 minutes = sub 40% shooting. Got worse as he aged (down to 27% 3pt shooting his senior year).

      Betting on Shumpert to become a statistically good shooter in his NBA career is a bad bet.

      If you watch game tape of him at GT his shot selection would make JR cringe- really poorly coached. What you need him to hit here are the spot-up threes he’s been making so far this year and lots of guys have been able to improve that over the course of their careers.

    49. DRed

      Juany8: There are notable exceptions, but the online basketball stats community is less concerned in searching for truth than they are in proving how smart they are to everyone else. If they were, the formulas for things like WS, WP, and PER would be constantly updated as new information came out and sources of data better than the box score were established. Instead the people behind these models spend all their time creating increasingly absurd defenses for their clearly outdated ideas. Thus Berri tries to convince us that because Steve Kerr and Derrick Rose are a similar height, their offensive games are more comparable than that of Steve Kerr and Steve Novak, who do the exact same fucking thing on offense.

      In other words, you shouldn’t bother with people quoting WP anymore than you bother with people quoting Points per game.

      But should we bother with people who discuss WP by making false claims about what it says? You’re beating the stuffing out of a strawman and then crowing about how tough you are.

    50. nicos

      Interesting Zach Lowe article on the Nuggets: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8937394/are-george-karl-denver-nuggets-really-title-contenders
      Iwas particularly interested in this bit-
      Denver’s internal stats show that the team scored 1.4 points per possession, up from about 1.05 overall, when a wing player has rebounded the ball and gone. “Everyone says the outlet pass [from a big man] is faster than the dribble,” Karl philosophizes. “But sometimes the dribble can be faster than the pass.”
      This would seem to support the bump that WoW gives to rebounding wings/guards. I’d love to see WoW incorporate this level of number crunching for individual players- Chandler’s offensive rebounds are much more likely to wind up as put-back dunks than Ronnie Brewers so shouldn’t they be worth a lot more?. You can say that Chandler gets the value added to his WoW score when he scores so it equals out but Brewer is still getting a bump that he doesn’t deserve because his offensive rebounds don’t have the same value- the likelihood of generating a high percentage shot- that most other guys do. Similarly, LBJ or Wade’s defensive rebounds are much more likely to wind up as fast breaks so aren’t they worth more than Fields? They’ll get some assists and lay-ups (but often the guy who makes the initial push won’t get either) but again I’d argue that Fields is getting a bump he doesn’t deserve because one of the values of guards/wings defensive rebounds is their ability to get out on the break more easily and that doesn’t happen with Fields. I brought this up last year and THCJ’s remark was a rebound is a rebound is a rebound. If you’re going to place such a value on rebounds run the numbers- they’re out there- and figure out just how much each guy’s are truly worth

    51. jon abbey

      Juany8:
      In other words, you shouldn’t bother with people quoting WP anymore than you bother with people quoting Points per game.

      PPG is a way better stat, at least that actually means something. it needs context, but it’s not flat out wrong like WP.

    52. EB

      Donnie Walsh:
      Shumpert was a horrible shooter in college. Big sample. 3000 minutes = sub 40% shooting. Got worse as he aged (down to 27% 3pt shooting his senior year).

      Betting on Shumpert to become a statistically good shooter in his NBA career is a bad bet.

      You are right, Shumpert WAS a horrible shooter in college. This says nothing about potential to develop a better shot. The idea that who Shumpert was or is as a shooter entails his future development as a shooter is flawed, several examples have been posted.

      Two more points, 1) Shumpert played point in college and so often took looks of a different quality than he will be asked to take in the NBA. 2) Shumpert’s shooting percentage dipped in his final year in college, however that year he was asked to take on a greater scoring load (Source: Draft Express) and likely threw up even more poor shots.

      Not all shot attempts are equal, JR Smith was recently reported to shoot around 40% on spot ups and around 9% after he took a dribble. Shump is not going to be asked to carry the offensive load in the NBA, he will be asked to defend well and hit the occasional three.

    53. Donnie Walsh

      Sounds like a lot of excuses. Fact is, he was a bad shooter in college and he’s been a bad shooter in the pros. He might become a good shooter, but if you’re betting on it to happen you’ll most likely turn up bust.

      Love shump for what he is, not what he might become. Sprewell was never a good shooter. But he did enough other stuff to make himself valuable. But don’t wait in vain for spots to change.

    54. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey: PPG is a way better stat, at least that actually means something. it needs context, but it’s not flat out wrong like WP.

      Laughably stupid. Like, unfathomably stupid.

    55. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      nicos: Similarly, LBJ or Wade’s defensive rebounds are much more likely to wind up as fast breaks so aren’t they worth more than Fields?

      I’m guessing that this point is moot because LBJ and Wade will have better assist/shooting efficiency numbers from those fast break opportunities.

    56. nicos

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m guessing that this point is moot because LBJ and Wade will have better assist/shooting efficiency numbers from those fast break opportunities.

      Yes, though certainly there are times when they make the push and wind up with a hockey assist that doesn’t show up in the box score. My point is that Berri has obviously determined that backcourt/wing rebounding correlates with winning in a way that front court rebounding does not- otherwise there’d be no reason to make that positional adjustment no? And now via sports-vu (and hell, you could do it just by obsessively breaking down box scores) you can see the value of player x’s rebounds vs. player y’s rather than just coming up with a general thumbnail number that applies to all players equally. As you point out (and I did in my original post) good players will see a bump- though perhaps incomplete- in their numbers anyway through made baskets/assists but that thumbnail number will exaggerate the value of players who aren’t getting the ball out in transition quickly (and whose rebounds might be of no more value than a centers). Now that presupposes that the only value of a guard/wing rebound is greater likelihood of a transition bucket which I’m sure isn’t the case but I do think that as a stat rpg isn’t that much more telling than ppg you really need more context to really determine it’s value. A statistical revolution is brewing and I think Berri is on the wrong side of it by insisting on a one size fits all formula that is sure to produce plenty of outliers.

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