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Friday, July 25, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Apr 24 2013)

  • [New York Times] Warriors Cruise Past Nuggets 131-117 (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 07:38:55 GMT)
    David Lee went from Golden State’s All-Star power forward and double-double machine to the Warriors’ biggest cheerleader and strategic adviser during timeouts.    

  • [New York Times] Heat Lead Series 2-0, Wade Heads Back to Milwaukee (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 07:23:54 GMT)
    A banner bearing Dwyane Wade’s jersey number hangs in the arena the Milwaukee Bucks call home, in tribute of his days as a standout at Marquette.    

  • [New York Times] Anthony, Knicks Rout Celtics for 2-0 Series Lead (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 07:20:44 GMT)
    In what they considered a “must-win” game, the New York Knicks couldn’t lose. Not the way they defended after halftime.    

  • [New York Times] Knicks Slow Garnett by Forcing Him Into Foul Trouble (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 06:45:25 GMT)
    Boston’s Kevin Garnett finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds, but was saddled with foul trouble, and the Knicks took advantage.    

  • [New York Times] Curry Leads Warriors Past Nuggets 131-117 (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 05:50:37 GMT)
    The Golden State Warriors hardly missed much of anything Tuesday night.    

  • [New York Times] Game 2: Knicks vs. Celtics (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 05:03:28 GMT)
    The Knicks defeated the Celtics, 87-71, and took a 2-0 lead in their first-round playoff series.    

  • [New York Times] Game 2: Knicks 87, Celtics 71: In Game 2, Knicks Reiterate Message, Dominating Celtics (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:39:08 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony was dominant again, scoring 34 points, and the Knicks outscored the Celtics by 45-23 in the second half to take a 2-0 series lead.    

  • [New York Times] In Game 2, Boston’s Offense Fades a Quarter Earlier (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:30:33 GMT)
    For the second game in a row, Boston’s offense suddenly vanished, as if it had all been a mirage.    

  • [New York Times] Anthony, Knicks Rout Celtics for 2-0 Series Lead (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:23:37 GMT)
    The New York Knicks are heading to Boston, then perhaps finally back to the second round.    

  • [New York Times] Pressure on Anthony to Carry Team to Playoff Success (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:14:23 GMT)
    A gifted scorer, Carmelo Anthony has always had the talent to put the ball in the basket but rarely has he been able to put his team deep into the playoffs.    

  • [New York Times] Roundup: Heat Pull Away From Bucks and Take a 2-0 Series Lead (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:05:40 GMT)
    Mike Dunlap was fired after one season as coach of the Charlotte Bobcats. Indiana Pacers forward Paul George was named most improved.    

  • [New York Times] Heat Take Off Late, Top Bucks 98-86 for 2-0 Lead (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 02:44:34 GMT)
    Everyone in the Miami huddle was bracing for a grind to the finish. On the other end, the sense around the Milwaukee bench was that an upset was there for the taking.    

  • [New York Times] Rutgers Hires Eddie Jordan to Restore ‘Dignity’ to Basketball Program (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 00:44:23 GMT)
    Rutgers University introduced Eddie Jordan, a star player on its 1976 Final Four team, as the new head basketball coach on Tuesday and said he would restore an atmosphere of respect to the program.    

  • [New York Newsday] Knicks dominate Celtics in second half to take 2-0 series lead (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 00:40:17 EDT)
    Carmelo Anthony found his stroke in the second half, about the same time the Knicks displayed the playoff type of defense and intensity that could drive them deep in this postseason.

  • [New York Newsday] Carmelo Anthony warms up despite Celtics' multiple defenders (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 00:35:27 EDT)
    There seems to be a pattern developing here, and if it keeps up the Knicks soon will find themselves in the second round of the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2000.

  • [New York Newsday] Raymond Felton making most of playoff opportunity (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 00:42:00 EDT)
    Raymond Felton waited two years for this moment, two years to be in a big playoff game at Madison Square Garden, two years to be a starter on a team that has a chance to go somewhere.

  • [New York Newsday] Celtics cold in third quarter again (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 00:26:17 EDT)
    Call it the Celtics' second-half snooze.

  • [New York Post] Felton responds to playoff pressure (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:29:16 -0500)
    Raymond Felton is using the playoffs to make his case in the inevitable comparisons with Jeremy Lin.
    There was no more controversial event in the Knicks’ offseason than when the team parted ways with Lin and brought in Felton from Portland to run the point.
    Felton was absolutely terrific in…

  • [New York Post] Foul trouble plagues KG (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:29:03 -0500)
    Ever since the Celtics staged their tribute to sleep-walking in the fourth quarter of Game 1, they stressed their laundry list of “to-doâ? items for the second game. There were usual goodies like “Try not to give the basketball to the Knicks a lot.â? But also high on the list…

  • [New York Post] J.R.: I want to retire here (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:28:50 -0500)
    Fresh off his Sixth Man Award, J.R. Smith is almost certain to opt out of his contract and become a free agent July 1. The Knicks are praying they are not outbid.
    At Monday’s press conference, Smith evaded a question on his contractual future, saying he will “worry…

  • [New York Post] Finishing fading team in Boston would be wise move (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:09:35 -0500)
    You know what’s coming: the parquet below, the banners up on high. The constant loop of highlights, Havlicek stealing the ball and Bird stealing the ball and Dave Cowens diving after loose balls like Pete Rose reaching for third base.
    You know how it’s going to sound, this…

  • [New York Post] Tip ins (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 01:33:36 -0500)
    HERO

    Nearly everybody played well for the Knicks in the second half, but this is Carmelo Anthony’s team and it was his third quarter. Anthony went 5-of-6 for 13 points in the third as the Knicks outscored the Celtics 32-11. He finished with 34.
    ZERO

    Since pouring in 20…

  • [New York Post] Knicks keep homecourt with 2nd-half shutdown of Celtics (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:28:39 -0500)
    Game 2 was déjà vu.
    For the second straight playoff game at the Garden, Carmelo Anthony erupted as the Celtics offense disintegrated in the second half. The Knicks awoke from a first-half slumber with another historic defensive performance in the 87-71 victory to ensure they are heading to Boston with…

  • [New York Post] Shumpert’s trey-mendous spurt in third quarter sparks Knicks (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:29:32 -0500)
    When Iman Shumpert checked out of Tuesday night’s game with 2:24 left in the third quarter, J.R. Smith looked back from the free-throw line toward the Knicks’ sideline and started clapping.
    That was because Shumpert keyed the Knicks’ game-breaking third-quarter run in their 87-71 Game 2 victory…

  • [New York Post] Knicks’ Stoudemire works toward return next series (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 04:28:23 -0500)
    Amar’e Stoudemire said Tuesday night he will begin full-speed running by week’s end and if all goes “great,â? he could suit up for the second round of the playoffs â?? if the Knicks make it.
    Stoudemire, who has spoken rarely since right knee debridement surgery March 11, said a…

  • [New York Post] Anthony Celtics’ worst fear (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:15:59 -0500)
    For a while there at the start, anyone could have called Carmelo Anthony an overrated ballhog who will never win an NBA championship, because it was Anthony and J.R. Smith against the Boston Celtics, and only Smith was putting the ball in the basket.
    But by the time Game…

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Notebook: Knicks' second-half D key (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 02:18:13 EDT)
    Carmelo Anthony has a combined 70 points in Games 1 and 2, both wins for the Knicks. As for the Celtics, as a whole, they’ve only scored a combined 48 points in second halves.
    So what was the difference for the Knicks after halftime on Tuesday night?
    “Just being aggressive defensively,” Raymond Felton said. “Just staying into our man and playing great help defense. Everybody locking in and understanding what we need to do to get the lead and take the lead and try to win the game.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Felton stars as 'engine' that could (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 01:50:33 EDT)
    Before the season started, there was grumbling over what Raymond Felton would contribute to the New York Knicks. Some said, “He’s not Jeremy Lin.” Others said, “He’ll be out of shape,” something that had plagued him in previous seasons.
    But Felton attacked the season like he attacks the paint, establishing himself as the team’s consistent third-best scorer. While a fractured right pinky on Christmas Day set him back a bit, he has turned it up a notch down the stretch this season, especially in the playoffs.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Anthony: You haven't seen the best Melo (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 01:30:04 EDT)
    Bad news, Boston.
    After scoring 70 points in the first two games of the Knicks-Celtics playoff series, this is how Carmelo Anthony summed up his performance:
    “I have to make some shots. I’ve been missing some shots that I feel like I can make in both games, missing shots I normally make.”
    In other words, the Boston Celtics haven’t seen the best of Carmelo Anthony yet.
    And they are still down, 2-0.
    Anthony led the New York Knicks to a Game 2 win by pouring in 34 points, 13 of which came in a pivotal third-quarter run.

  • [New York Daily News] Halfway there: Melo leads Knicks to Game 2 rout of Celtics (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 06:18:17 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony nearly outscored Boston in the second half as the Knicks shut down the offensively-challenged Celtics for the second straight game and captured Game 2 87-71. The Knicks lead the best-of-seven-series 2-0 with Game 3 scheduled for Friday in Boston.    

  • [New York Daily News] If Knicks advance, Amar’e could play as early as next round (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 06:17:14 GMT)
    Before Tuesday’s Game 2 against the Celtics at the Garden, the $100 million forward floated the possibility of being ready as early as the next round if the Knicks should advance.    

  • [New York Daily News] Lawrence: Knicks knockdown of Celtics shows KO is coming (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 06:05:05 GMT)
    The Knicks didn’t finish off the Celtics at a raucous Garden on Tuesday night. But it sure seemed that way. The Knicks are up 2-0 after their 87-71 romp, so they’ve merely protected their home court in this first-round series. But there is no question that they manhandled the Celtics.    

  • [New York Daily News] Woodson knows backcourt at forefront of win (Wed, 24 Apr 2013 05:53:17 GMT)
    The Celtics have found out what life is like without a true point guard since Rajon Rondo blew out his knee, and it has showed through two games of their first-round playoff series against the Knicks.    

  • 120 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Wednesday, Apr 24 2013)

    1. Hubert Davis

      ephus:
      Quick preview of my forthcoming article on JR Smith’s salary status:

      My conspiratorial mind tells me that CAA may convince JR Smith to take one more one-year deal from the Knicks, and get the $18 million max deal next year.He would have a $3.5 million insurance policy (in his player option) against a major injury.I think this scenario may already have been presented to JR Smith, leading to his big talk about “loyalty” and “seeing the plan” last summer when Jeremy Lin was allowed to depart to Houston.

      All of these scenarios are based upon my reading of Larry Coon’s cbafaq.com The knowledge is from Larry Coon.Only the mistakes are mine.

      Hey Ephus, digging this up from yesterday. Great work, first of all, and thanks for sharing. I was talking about your theory with a buddy last night. I agree with you that it seems plausible.

      But then he reminded me of the Joe Smith saga. Wouldn’t we be extremely punished for doing this?

      (I can still see us doing it, by the way, and losing all draft picks for the next 8 years. It’s a very, very Knicks thing to do.)

    2. Frank

      Somehow I must have missed ephus’s post about this– but I think that would be a MAJOR mistake for the Knicks. $18MM for JR Smith? You must be kidding me.

      I think max — MAX — JR is worth is in the $8-10MM/year range. If I’m the Knicks, I give him a 3 year deal at full Early Bird with an ETO after year 2. That’ll be roughly $11.5MM total in the 2 years + another ~$6MM in guarantee with his player option = ~17.5MM. Then in 2 years if he continues to grow as a player, we can talk about a bigger deal. This way he has basically 17.5MM in guarantees in 3 years as opposed to ~$6.5MM over next 2 seasons if he goes the way Ephus was implying.

    3. johnno

      Z-man:
      I am absolutley loving perusing the hated opposition’s blog

      Thanks for the link. Celtics fans whining about how the refs treat Garnett and Pierce? Funny, funny stuff.
      By the way, when Shumpert was blindsided by KG’s screen in the backcourt (which he set for no reason other than to get a shot in at Shumpert) did anyone else immediately think back to last year when Chandler did the exact same thing to LeBron, the only difference beng that Chandler got called for a flagrant foul and LeBron wobbled around the court pretending to be in a daze for the entire time the refs reviewed the play…

    4. Frank

      Also – if JR opts out of his deal in 2 years in the scenario I outlined above, our cap hold on him will be relatively small ($9MM or so I guess) going into our offseason when we finally get out from under Amare’s contract (and Tyson/Melo’s contracts are expiring then too).

      Considering how well Grunwald has managed the team, I can’t possibly imagine that he would cede all flexibility like that. Of course he did give 2015-16 guaranteed years to Novak and Felton, so who knows?

    5. Nick C.

      Z-man:
      http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/4/24/4260066/celtics-vs-knicks-nba-playoffs-2013-kevin-garnett

      I am absolutley loving perusing the hated opposition’s blog after this double-barrel trouncing. Since the last time the Knicks were in any position to crow in the playoffs (not that we should do so yet!) blogs weren’t really invented yet!

      I didn’t go so far as to read the comments but the writer sounded positively Rurulike in his optimism about the Knicks with quotes alogn the lines of: “when Melo inevitably got hot it was over”, “Chandler still looks a step slow” “done it without an explosion from JR Smith other than the 9 points in 19 secodns at the end of the first quarter.” Good to see not every Boston writer is at Dan Shaughnssey (sp?) speed limit IQ level.

    6. d-mar

      Was at the game, and I have to say having been to many playoff games going all the way back to the late 80′s, the crowd was not one of the loudest or more boisterous I’ve heard. I think what’s happening is that the more expensive seats (which is about 3/4 of MSG) are being filled by tourists and corporate types, so all the noise and anti-Boston chants are coming from the 300 and 400 levels. Much crazier in the old days when the whole Garden was rocking.

      The sad thing is if we do get to Conference finals, MSG will jack prices up to such astronomical levels that this situation may only get worse, not better, even against the hated Heat.

    7. Hubert Davis

      Frank:
      Somehow I must have missed ephus’s post about this– but I think that would be a MAJOR mistake for the Knicks. $18MM for JR Smith? You must be kidding me.

      I think max — MAX — JR is worth is in the $8-10MM/year range. If I’m the Knicks, I give him a 3 year deal at full Early Bird with an ETO after year 2. That’ll be roughly $11.5MM total in the 2 years + another ~$6MM in guarantee with his player option = ~17.5MM. Then in 2 years if he continues to grow as a player, we can talk about a bigger deal.This way he has basically 17.5MM in guarantees in 3 years as opposed to ~$6.5MM over next 2 seasons if he goes the way Ephus was implying.

      I only posted part of it. Whole post is in the JR wins sixth man thread and is worth a read – he lays out every option.

      But his theory was essentially that JR already agreed to a 3 year, $24 million deal this past summer ($2.5mm this year, $3.5mm next year, and $18mm in two years). Some of JR’s tweets around the time (about loyalty and the plan) would seem to support this.

      Ephus was not, I don’t think, advocating to sign JR to a multi-year deal at $18mm annually.

    8. bidiong

      Melo is getting crushed on espn radio today because he doesn’t pass enough and get assists. He’s also inefficient apparently. Which we know he hasn’t been so far this series.

    9. er

      bidiong: Melo is getting crushed on espn radio today because he doesn’t pass enough and get assists. He’s also inefficient apparently. Which we know he hasn’t been so far this series.

      lol if its Cowherd, you know hes butthurt

    10. Keniman Shumpwalker

      er: lol if its Cowherd, you know hes butthurt

      ESPN Radio is like the Fox News of sports journalism: just a bunch of uninformed, biased, blowhard jackasses spouting off about nothing at all. I like Greeny and Golic, but their knowledge of anything beyond football is non-existent.

    11. Frank

      Yeah even Melo haters should have a tough time hating his stats so far. USG is ridiculous at 39.6, but his TS is 57.9 and his TOV% is 6.2. WS/48 of 0.340 against a tough defensive team that is scheming in particular to stop him.

    12. Count de Pennies

      DRed:
      Cowherd is nothing but a troll.

      What’s funny is that in the weeks leading up to the Melo deal, Cowherd was one of the loudest voices urging the Knicks to pull out all the stops to make it happen.

      IIRC his refrain at that time was something along the lines of “The NBA is a superstar’s league… and neither Gallinari, Chandler, Fields, and Felton are superstars. Melo is. If you’re given the chance to package up a bunch of ‘B’ players to get one ‘A’ player, you grab it with both hands.”

      Of course, that viewpoint was very much the prevailing wisdom at the time and guys like Cowherd earn their living by perpetuating whatever the conventional wisdom du jour happens to be. Today’s narrative is that Melo is a one-dimensional ball-stopper and, predictably, Cowherd has jumped right on board that train.

      The next time Colin Cowherd expresses an idea that’s not of a piece with the dominant narrative will be the first time.

    13. bidiong

      It’s the playoffs and the offense is being ran through our star. They said he’s completely not passing. He’s a 1 year old who’s afraid he won’t get the ball back. What a bunch of nonsense.

    14. bidiong

      Melo has been doing great with getting a double team passing out of it and then getting his teammates involved.

    15. mokers

      Z-man:
      http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/4/24/4260066/celtics-vs-knicks-nba-playoffs-2013-kevin-garnett

      I am absolutley loving perusing the hated opposition’s blog after this double-barrel trouncing. Since the last time the Knicks were in any position to crow in the playoffs (not that we should do so yet!) blogs weren’t really invented yet!

      The series hasn’t hit the garden and it seemed like the longest discussion was whether to amnesty pierce or rondo and tank next season in hopes of rebuilding.

    16. Nick C.

      Frank:
      Yeah even Melo haters should have a tough time hating his stats so far. USG is ridiculous at 39.6, but his TS is 57.9 and his TOV% is 6.2. WS/48 of 0.340 against a tough defensive team that is scheming in particular to stop him.

      And of course I am sure Cowherd has the mental capacity to process that. :-)

      IN ESPN’s defense the early bird guys Lundberg and Max something or other have come around on Melo after being big detractors. They and the often blowhardy Kay/LoGreca all have referenced “hockey assists.” One of them in the am went so far as to say Marbury would only pass if he could get an assist.

    17. DRed

      Would it be nice if Melo had more than 2 assists this series? Sure. A few more rebounds wouldn’t hurt either. But its not like he’s killing the knicks out there. Cowherd’s argument is that Carmelo can’t win in the playoffs, so it should be interesting to hear him switch to something else after we put the celts out of their misery.

    18. DRed

      Maybe ruru can send Cowherd his hatchet job on Chandler from the other night so he has a round 2 target.

    19. jon abbey

      “Would it be nice if Melo had more than 2 assists this series? Sure. A few more rebounds wouldn’t hurt either. But its not like he’s killing the knicks out there. ”

      so ridiculous in every way, sorry.

      individual stats like assists and rebounds are so overrated, they’re as bad as RBIs and SP wins in baseball. often it’s the guy doing the blocking out that allows someone else to get the ball, and often the guy who draws the defense’s attention and allows the space for the open shot isn’t the one who gets the actual assist.

      and the Chandler stuff is funny, too. talk about a guy who’s gotten a free pass from pretty much everyone this year (nice to see Kevin give him a realistic grade last night). as I said a few months back, if Melo had played like Chandler this year in his more statistically obvious role, he’d be getting ripped on the back pages of the papers three times a week.

    20. Hubert Davis

      I was just catching up on some of the Derrick Rose talk from a few days ago and had an idea that I can’t get any info to support or refute.

      Does anyone know if being on a long term injured list prevents players from being tested for PEDs?

    21. DRed

      jon abbey:
      “Would it be nice if Melo had more than 2 assists this series? Sure. A few more rebounds wouldn’t hurt either. But its not like he’s killing the knicks out there. ”

      so ridiculous in every way, sorry.

      If your rebound theory was true you’d see more year to year variation in rebounding numbers, wouldn’t you?

      That being said, Chandler has been pretty useless so far. Did I argue otherwise?

    22. ConnecTVSports

      The Celtics are 1-9 all-time when trailing a best of 7 playoff series 0-2 and the Knicks seem to be very in control of this series. I predict the Celtics will take the game on Friday when they make the emotional return to the Garden for the first time since the Boston Marathon bombings, but after that I really think NY is going to close it out. What do you think: Knicks in 5?

    23. jon abbey

      DRed: If your rebound theory was true you’d see more year to year variation in rebounding numbers, wouldn’t you?

      it’s not a ‘theory’. and why? Melo showed towards the end of the season he is perfectly capable of getting 15 or 18 boards if that is part of his role for a specific game, but it rarely is.

    24. DRed

      So, rebounding numbers are very consistent year to year, but that doesn’t matter because of a 4 or 5 game stretch by Carmelo?

    25. johnlocke

      Also, if you want to have a good laugh during games, watch Q-Rich’s reactions on the bench…they’re amazing.

    26. Juany8

      DRed:
      So, rebounding numbers are very consistent year to year, but that doesn’t matter because of a 4 or 5 game stretch by Carmelo?

      The correct answer is that rebounding numbers being consistent from year to year means only that rebounding numbers are consistent year to year. It tells us nothing about the value of each individual rebound, it just means that NBA players get roughly the same number of rebounds this year when averaged out to every player. Since the vast majority of players don’t change roles from year to year, even when they switch teams, your little evidence just as strongly supports the hypothesis that rebounds are heavily correlated with role as well as talent. But seriously, if you say defense is a team activity then everything that happens on a basketball court is a team activity, so giving one player the full value for a team rebound is just displaying ignorance of how rebounding works.

    27. jon abbey

      Juany8: The correct answer is that rebounding numbers being consistent from year to year means only that rebounding numbers are consistent year to year. It tells us nothing about the value of each individual rebound, it just means that NBA players get roughly the same number of rebounds this year when averaged out to every player. Since the vast majority of players don’t change roles from year to year, even when they switch teams, your little evidence just as strongly supports the hypothesis that rebounds are heavily correlated with role as well as talent. But seriously, if you say defense is a team activity then everything that happens on a basketball court is a team activity, so giving one player the full value for a team rebound is just displaying ignorance of how rebounding works.

      exactly, thank you for saving me some time. so much of this is common sense, it’s amazing to me it’s not more widely recognized by people who have presumably watched hundreds or thousands of games.

    28. MeloDrama

      Count de Pennies: What’s funny is that in the weeks leading up to the Melo deal, Cowherd was one of the loudest voices urging the Knicks to pull out all the stops to make it happen.

      IIRC his refrain at that time was something along the lines of “The NBA is a superstar’s league… and neither Gallinari, Chandler, Fields, and Felton are superstars. Melo is. If you’re given the chance to package up a bunch of ‘B’ players to get one ‘A’ player, you grab it with both hands.”

      Of course, that viewpoint was very much the prevailing wisdom at the time and guys like Cowherd earn their living by perpetuating whatever the conventional wisdom du jour happens to be. Today’s narrative is that Melo is a one-dimensional ball-stopper and, predictably, Cowherd has jumped right on board that train.

      The next time Colin Cowherd expresses an idea that’s not of a piece with the dominant narrative will be the first time.

      Cowherd’s bad at sports analysis but he’s good at his job, which is to stir up big markets. Hating on Melo is a lowest common denominator way to get NY’s attention, and hence there he is.

      Seriously, a few months ago I was driving at night and they had him on a commercial plugging his show and how he was going to have “FORMER NEW YORK KNICK Antonio Davis,” which was completely LOL b/c Davis played with the Knicks for like a minute in the irrelevant part of his career.

    29. MeloDrama

      jon abbey:
      “Would it be nice if Melo had more than 2 assists this series? Sure. A few more rebounds wouldn’t hurt either. But its not like he’s killing the knicks out there. ”

      so ridiculous in every way, sorry.

      individual stats like assists and rebounds are so overrated, they’re as bad as RBIs and SP wins in baseball. often it’s the guy doing the blocking out that allows someone else to get the ball, and often the guy who draws the defense’s attention and allows the space for the open shot isn’t the one who gets the actual assist.

      and the Chandler stuff is funny, too. talk about a guy who’s gotten a free pass from pretty much everyone this year (nice to see Kevin give him a realistic grade last night). as I said a few months back, if Melo had played like Chandler this year in his more statistically obvious role, he’d be getting ripped on the back pages of the papers three times a week.

      The ironic thing about the holy war on this board between the Melo peeps and the Jowles patrol:

      When you think about it, this season has tied it up perfectly. All of the WP48 darlings who can contribute to the game in a ton of ways without taking shots basically constitute a perfect fit to put around a Melo and a JR Smith. One is a perfect fit with the other.

      Everyone hates playing with “Melo the ballhog” unless, you know, they don’t and could care less about shots because they’ve embraced other roles. Like Chandler. Like Kidd. Like Kenyon.

    30. johnno

      MeloDrama: Hating on Melo is a lowest common denominator way to get NY’s attention,

      Could you imagine the media frenzy if it had been the Knicks and not the Celtics who had scored 48 second half points in two games? For that matter, could you imagine the frenzy on THIS board?
      Here’s something interesting — the Melo haters criticize his rebounding because he plays power forward and, for a 4, he doesn’t get enough rebounds. OK, so he’s a power forward. Has anyone ever looked at the assist leaders among power forwards? There are a lot of small forwards who average more assists than he does, but there are only two or three power forwards in the whole league who average more assists than he does. So, if you want to say that he doesn’t get enough assists for a small forward, you also have to say that he gets a ton of rebounds for a small forward.

    31. DRed

      jon abbey: exactly, thank you for saving me some time. so much of this is common sense, it’s amazing to me it’s not more widely recognized by people who have presumably watched hundreds or thousands of games.

    32. DRed

      jon abbey: exactly, thank you for saving me some time. so much of this is common sense, it’s amazing to me it’s not more widely recognized by people who have presumably watched hundreds or thousands of games.

      Jon, if I understand you correctly you’re arguing that rebounding, like rbi, is a stat heavily dependent on teammate performance, but it doesn’t matter that rebounding stays consistent

    33. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      From yesterday:

      “The players are pre-selected by scouts and coaches and will in almost all cases be used in a similar way. No coach will try to make his “enforcer” to be his main “scorer” for example. The players will have similar roles and minutes in consecutive seasons. That just a simple fact. And using hindsight data to predict something which already happened is not something which is really impressive. In fact, we have a better method to predict team wins, pythagorean expectation, than the linear relationship Berri is using….”

      1) No one advocates for WP48 as the end-all, be-all of player evaluation. No one has ever advocated for putting four Reggie Evanses and one Chris Paul on the floor. A high WP48 can be achieved through a number of different efficiency types. You might want to pair Reggie Evans up with someone who scores efficiently but is not particularly adept at defensive rebounding. No one says this is not okay.

      2) Hindsight bias has nothing to do with the selection of variables in this case. We know the four things that a team must do to win games. We know this. This is objectively true. We know that scoring efficiently, offensive rebounding, turnovers, and free throws are the key to success on both sides of the ball, and they can predict game outcome with exceeding accuracy. All WP48 tries to do, like the other linear metrics, is determine the value of each of those variables on the individual level. If WP48 is guilty of hindsight bias, so is the Four Factors method.

      3) Pythagorean expectation explains team wins in the crudest possible way. And it’s also very accurate. But it doesn’t account for transactions on the court that do not directly produce points. That means rebounds, steals, turnovers, fouls, assists, technicals, etc. are accounted for, but implicitly. WP is an attempt to come to the same conclusion while assigning explicit values to those smaller transactions that affect but do not directly translate to points.

    34. Nick C.

      I agree that rebounding is at least in part based on role. But there is a lot of variance among players with the same general role: Jason Kidd as pass first PG or Eddy Curry or Dwight Howard as low post C.

      I think the Melo example may be small sample size but may prove the point. I also wonder how much Brook Lopez’ drop in reb from his first seasons is due to Evans and Humphries.

    35. Juany8

      DRed: Jon, if I understand you correctly you’re arguing that rebounding, like rbi, is a stat heavily dependent on teammate performance, but it doesn’t matter that rebounding stays consistent

      Won’t speak for Jon but that was certainly my argument yes. Partly because we have wildly different definitions of “staying consistent”. For one thing, who cares about rebounds per minute as a stat, a team that plays at a faster pace is obviously going to get more rebounds. So is a great defensive team, you’re kind of limited by how many times the other team actually misses the ball. Of course if you’re a great defensive team who plays fast but has shitty rebounders, that will have an effect too lol.

      Seriously though, I don’t even have to provide real arguments, all I have to say that correlation does not imply causation and your whole premise just falls apart. Once again, rebounding being consistent from year to year proves nothing except that rebounding is consistent from year to year. Anything else you draw from that is your own interpretation, it doesn’t mean anything to anyone else

    36. DRed

      It strongly suggests that it is not heavily dependent on teammates. If rebounding was strongly affected by teammates rebounding numbers should fluctuate more.

    37. Juany8

      Gotta give it up to the statistics geeks, they figured out that getting good shots, rebounding the ball, avoiding turnovers, and getting to the free throw line are important for winning basketball games. Must have been difficult to statistically prove something every pee wee coach in the country takes for granted. Even in those stupid miked up coach sessions where they say things like “play harder guys!”, all they talk about is getting good shots, rebounding the ball, avoiding turnovers, and getting to the foul line. Next thing you know Berri will be pointing out that good teams tend to win more frequently in the playoffs and passing it off as proof of his expertise. Or the Jeff van Gundy line: “advanced stats show that micheal Jordan was good at basketball!”

    38. BigBlueAL

      DRed:
      It strongly suggests that it is not heavily dependent on teammates.If rebounding was strongly affected by teammates rebounding numbers should fluctuate more.

      So you really think if Melo played 82 games at PF along side Copeland as the starting Center he will still only average 6.5 rebs a game?? If Melo played 82 games as basically the main big on the team his rebounding wont increase??

    39. Juany8

      DRed:
      It strongly suggests that it is not heavily dependent on teammates.If rebounding was strongly affected by teammates rebounding numbers should fluctuate more.

      If rebounding was strongly affected by teammates and your teammates didnt change, you’d have a consistent relationship from year to year. Do you think team compositions drastically change in the NBA each year? Regardless, it’s not just teammates but role as well. And on every team in the NBA that picked him up, Reggie Evans types are brought in to rebound. So his numbers would only change if his teammates forced his role to change for some reason. Thus the actual proof you need to provide is that rebounding stays consistent even if a player drastically changes both his role and team. I doubt you could find more than 10 players that fit that description on a yearly basis, so it might be hard to take any data you actually gather seriously because of sample size issues. Maybe a 95% plus correlation year to year would also get my attention, but that’s not what is actually shown.

    40. jon abbey

      BigBlueAL: So you really think if Melo played 82 games at PF along side Copeland as the starting Center he will still only average 6.5 rebs a game??If Melo played 82 games as basically the main big on the team his rebounding wont increase??

      we just saw in that stretch towards the end of the season that of course this wasn’t true, but some people never let facts get in the way of their nonsensical beliefs.

      the RBI comparison isn’t a great one because it’s everyone’s job to try to knock in runners when they come to the plate with guys on base. it’s not every player’s job to try to get rebounds on every possession.

    41. DRed

      if you played Reggie Evans in the Steve Novak role, would he get more rebounds than Steve Novak?

      I’m not saying that teammates and role have no influence on rebounding. I’m saying the evidence shows that its not large enough an effect to conclude that rebounds are a worthless individual stat.

      If Carmelo played all his games with chris copeland at center, it’s likely he’d have more rebounds. Would he get as many rebounds as Reggie Evans? No-Reggie evans is a better rebounder.

    42. Juany8

      jon abbey: we just saw in that stretch towards the end of the season that of course this wasn’t true, but some people never let facts get in the way of their nonsensical beliefs.

      the RBI comparison isn’t a great one because it’s everyone’s job to try to knock in runners when they come to the plate with guys on base. it’s not every player’s job to try to get rebounds on every possession.

      A more interesting comparison might be sacks. Everyone knows it’s good to get a sack in football, but corners don’t seem to be penalized for their lack of sacks in football. And if the corner doesn’t slow down the wide receiver, then it doesn’t matter how good your defensive line is, the quarterback is going to get quick completions. In the same way, it can be a player’s role to box out a good rebounder, which might not get him a lot of rebounds but it will increase the team’s chance of getting them. Of it can be a players role to guard a point guard out on the perimeter, and if he succeeds he’s not going to be in great position for a rebound. It’s all interconnected…

    43. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: A more interesting comparison might be sacks. Everyone knows it’s good to get a sack in football, but corners don’t seem to be penalized for their lack of sacks in football. And if the corner doesn’t slow down the wide receiver, then it doesn’t matter how good your defensive line is, the quarterback is going to get quick completions. In the same way, it can be a player’s role to box out a good rebounder, which might not get him a lot of rebounds but it will increase the team’s chance of getting them. Of it can be a players role to guard a point guard out on the perimeter, and if he succeeds he’s not going to be in great position for a rebound. It’s all interconnected…

      Totally false analogy. Every basketball player has to dribble, pass, shoot, rebound, steal, and not turn the ball over. Basketball is a MUCH more homogeneous game than football. Point guards still get rebounds. Some of them get many more rebounds than others do. You can come up with a justification as to why Jason Kidd’s phenomenal (and anomalous) defensive rebounding is good or bad, but the fact is that without solid evidence that attention to rebounding leads to some kind of inefficiency elsewhere, you’re asking us to prove that something doesn’t exist. I’m not willing to play that game. Occam’s razor works for me: rebound more, have more possession to score.

    44. jon abbey

      DRed:
      if you played Reggie Evans in the Steve Novak role, would he get more rebounds than Steve Novak?

      I’m not saying that teammates and role have no influence on rebounding. I’m saying the evidence shows that its not large enough an effect to conclude that rebounds are a worthless individual stat.

      If Carmelo played all his games with chris copeland at center, it’s likely he’d have more rebounds. Would he get as many rebounds as Reggie Evans? No-Reggie evans is a better rebounder.

      yeah, no one is calling them worthless, but individual rebounds in general are misleading and overvalued. even team rebounds are somewhat overrated, some are very valuable and some much less so. grouping them all together blindly just adds noise to the numbers, and when only four rebounds per game by a team separates the best in the league (IND) from the middle of the league and three more separate the middle from the worst (MIA, amusingly), this introduces so much error as to make the numbers close to meaningless.

      and there’s a reason Reggie Evans bounces from team to team, did you hear Steve Kerr (who I think has quickly jumped to the best analyst around) talking in game 2 about how having him out there along with a bad shooter like Wallace kills the spacing on offense for Brooklyn?

    45. DRed

      Jon, who is overvaluing individual rebounds and by how much are they overvalued? And how do you know this?

    46. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Totally false analogy. Every basketball player has to dribble, pass, shoot, rebound, steal, and not turn the ball over. Basketball is a MUCH more homogeneous game than football. Point guards still get rebounds. Some of them get many more rebounds than others do. You can come up with a justification as to why Jason Kidd’s phenomenal (and anomalous) defensive rebounding is good or bad, but the fact is that without solid evidence that attention to rebounding leads to some kind of inefficiency elsewhere, you’re asking us to prove that something doesn’t exist. I’m not willing to play that game. Occam’s razor works for me: rebound more, have more possession to score.

      Show me a point guard who gets 10 rebounds a game or a center that gets 10 assists per game and we’ll talk about homogenous. You realize corners get sacks and that linemen get interceptions right? Also the only thing I’m asking you to prove is that individual rebounds can be linearly translated to team rebounding stats. Also in your specific case, I’d like to know how someone can say something as stupid as “rebounds can be consistently valued” while at the same time saying “a rebound by a point guard is worth more than a rebound from a center”. Just because you’re using numbers doesn’t exempt you from logic.

    47. jon abbey

      DRed:
      Jon, who is overvaluing individual rebounds and by how much are they overvalued? And how do you know this?

      seriously? it’s like we’re speaking different languages and nothing I say, no matter how well researched or not, is going to change your opinion anyway, so I will just stop.

    48. BigBlueAL

      In the end the team who wins is not the team with the most rebounds it’s the team who scored more points. Boom!!

    49. MeloDrama

      Melo doesn’t rack up rebounds like a true big, but he effectively acts as the league’s Super-stretch 4 … Ryan Anderson’s a heck of a player in New Orleans, and Melo and he drain 3′s at about the same clip.

      People harping on his assists are missing the point that the Knicks offense was extremely effective this year, largely because 1. having Melo pulling a 4 out of the lane creates a nightmare for a defense 2. Even when he does, most of them can’t check him and he can get to the rim and 3. His turnover rate is so low that it makes up for any possessions he fails to get us on the boards.

      Put it this way: in this series, when Melo has the ball, we’re close to guaranteed to get a shot up, no turnover. If the Celtics can’t turn us over, they have to play halfcourt ball. If they have to do that, they score 23 points in a half.

    50. Juany8

      By the way here’s a tip on science for Everyone, but especially a few people: you can’t causally prove anything from an observation (saying rebounds are consistent is a mere observation and this can’t prove anything about rebounds)

      Another key bit of oft-ignored truth: if EVERYONE disagrees with you (or at least a vast, vast majority) then YOU have the burden of proof if you want to convince them otherwise. I don’t believe I know how valuable rebounds are exactly, but if you want to convince me that you do, you need to provide indisputable proof that you’re correct. If you showed me a large sample of players that changed teams and roles and had very similar rebounding numbers across time, then I’d be at least seriously intrigued. As it is you’re just making observations and passing off your interpreted hypothesis as some kind of conclusion. It’s poor science all around.

    51. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Totally false analogy. Every basketball player has to dribble, pass, shoot, rebound, steal, and not turn the ball over.

      That’s where you’re wrong. Cornerbacks generate a small number of sacks and tackles in the same way that a Steve Novak generates a small number of rebounds, turnovers, assists, and steals.

      If Steve Novak were to generate a higher number of those stats it’s likely and indictment on his teammates inability to do those things, just as a cornerback with a lot of tackles is likely and indictment on the defense of the team.

      That’s because of role.

      Should a “safety” that plays in the box like a linebacker be penalized for not accumulating deflections and interceptions?

      What is the defense trying to do?

      You see, as Oliver talked about, position designations are the crudest descriptions of team role.

      They don’t tell us that Steve Novak, a power forward, is used as a floor spacing shooter.

      It doesn’t tell us about team dynamics. Does it benefit the Knicks for Jason Kidd and the other guards to grab as many uncontested rebounds as possible to generate a fastbreak or semi-transition?

      Of course.

      How do you get the Knicks guards to grab rebounds? You have your smaller frontcourt box-out bigger players.

      JR Smith shattered his previous high in def % rebound. Did he all of a sudden become a better leaper, stronger, better at boxing out?

      No, his role changed.

      Melo has had better defensive rebounding years as a SMALL FORWARD?

      Does that mean he was contributing less to team defensive rebounds?

      No, it means that Melo’s responsibility was to keep his larger opponent from grabbing offensive rebounds, which he excelled.

      Melo could have grabbed more defensive rebounds without focusing as much on face-guarding his opponent, but he wouldn’t have been helping his team as much.

      Every facet of the…

    52. Juany8

      jon abbey: seriously? it’s like we’re speaking different languages and nothing I say, no matter how well researched or not, is going to change your opinion anyway, so I will just stop.

      It’s frustrating isn’t it? Everyone else seems to understand the points we’re trying to make, even if they don’t agree. How hard is it to understand that proving a year to year correlation with rebounding doesn’t prove the value of an individual rebound.

    53. ruruland

      MeloDrama:
      Melo doesn’t rack up rebounds like a true big, but he effectively acts as the league’s Super-stretch 4 … Ryan Anderson’s a heck of a player in New Orleans, and Melo and he drain 3?s at about the same clip.

      People harping on his assists are missing the point that the Knicks offense was extremely effective this year, largely because 1. having Melo pulling a 4 out of the lane creates a nightmare for a defense 2. Even when he does, most of them can’t check him and he can get to the rim and 3. His turnover rate is so low that it makes up for any possessions he fails to get us on the boards.

      Put it this way: in this series, when Melo has the ball, we’re close to guaranteed to get a shot up, no turnover. If the Celtics can’t turn us over, they have to play halfcourt ball. If they have to do that, they score 23 points in a half.

      Melo, as an undersized small forward often pitted against power forwards and centers in the paint, was most effective for the team face guarding/boxing out larger players and allowing teammates to grab rebounds.

      As an individual, he could have generated more rebounds facing the basket, but he would have also given up more offensive rebounds to bigger players.

      Melo was the lineman paving the way for his running backs.

      He’s had much better defensive rebounding years based on position adjustment, and probably a lesser impact on team rebounding.

    54. ruruland

      Juany8: . Also in your specific case, I’d like to know how someone can say something as stupid as “rebounds can be consistently valued” while at the same time saying “a rebound by a point guard is worth more than a rebound from a center”. Just because you’re using numbers doesn’t exempt you from logic.

      Exactly.

    55. ruruland

      DRed:
      Jon, who is overvaluing individual rebounds and by how much are they overvalued? And how do you know this?

      Melo had a higher rebound percentage than Tyson Chandler season d reb % when he played Tyson Chandler’s role (with Martin out).

      That does not mean he contributed more to team defensive rebounding when Chandler and Martin played and it does not mean he’s better at playing Tyson Chandler’s role.

      For the love of god tell me you understand.

    56. KnickfaninNJ

      Kenyon Martin was quoted today in the NY Times recently:

      “It [Boston signing him in February] was real close,” he said. “Like, the deal was almost done. They didn’t pull the trigger. So now I’m here and I’m going to make them pay.”

      I hope he does. He’s off to a good start.

    57. JK47

      The Knicks were very strong in terms of two fundamentals this year: protecting the ball on offense and boxing out for defensive rebounds. The only true big that logged major minutes for NYK this year was Chandler, yet the Knicks finished 4th in DRB%. That’s pretty impressive when you think about it.

    58. DRed

      ruruland: Melo had a higher rebound percentage than Tyson Chandler season d reb % when he played Tyson Chandler’s role (with Martin out).
      That does not mean he contributed more to team defensive rebounding when Chandler and Martin played and it does not mean he’s better at playing Tyson Chandler’s role.
      For the love of god tell me you understand.

    59. DRed

      Whoops- what I meant to say is that you’re saying chris copeland is elite when it comes to faceguarding other centers so that melo can rack up rebounds. Did I get it?

    60. ruruland

      DRed:
      Whoops- what I meant to say is that you’re saying chris copeland is elite when it comes to faceguarding other centers so that melo can rack up rebounds.Did I get it?

      To be honest, I haven’t paid enough attention to how Copeland rebounds, but I do think he boxes out pretty well at times.

      I think faceguarding is generally a rare thing. But Melo is probably the shortest/least long pf in the nba

    61. Juany8

      DRed:
      Whoops- what I meant to say is that you’re saying chris copeland is elite when it comes to faceguarding other centers so that melo can rack up rebounds.Did I get it?

      Is it really impossible for you to imagine a world where a player can hurt his team by going for more rebounds? How is that any different than when a player decides he’s going to help his team score more by shooting more? Why do we demonize players who mess up in ways easily identified by the box score, yet not for mistakes that don’t show up on the box score? For instance, ibaka is a vastly overrated shot blocker since nobody bothers to keep track of all the times he leapt out of position to chase a block, leaving his opponent with either an easy basket or an easy offensive rebound. It would be like keeping track of all the makes and assists and just ignoring missed shots and turnovers.

      Likewise it is possible to make a good basketball play that reduces your chances of getting credit in the box score, as with hockey assists and boxing out. Hell, we can all agree that charges are awesome and totally valuable, yet no one bothers to account for them.

    62. Juany8

      Oh man Jeremy Lin just got demoted to shooting guard lol. Patrick Beverly is starting, guarding Westbrook, and bringing the ball up (switching up with Harden really). Lin’s ceiling might really be a rich man’s JJ Barea (and the Mavs didn’t mind the normal Barea, so it’s so bad)

    63. Juany8

      Oh and just for fun, the biggest WP “stars” to change teams last year, often into dramatically different roles, were Andre Iguodala, Ryan Anderson, Omer Asik, James harden, and Dwight Howard (not counting Nash or Kidd because of their ages and Nash because of injuries). The MINIMUM drop in WP48 among them was James Harden, at .046. Again that’s the minimum drop, Ryan Anderson isn’t even considered an average player anymore, and you could argue that at Harden and Asik’s age they were supposed to get better, which makes their very noticeable drop all the more stark.

      Of course we’re going to get the whole “outliers” defense, but when you constantly highlight those players as examples of stars that don’t get the attention they deserve, it would really help if their stats didn’t drop off significantly as all the silly “naysayers” say they would. You can’t even get your stat to give you the numbers you want! We don’t even have to point out that Ronnie Brewer has still produced more wins for the Knicks than Carmelo Anthony :)

    64. jon abbey

      I think Melo was ahead of Brewer by the end, but still the 7th or 8th most valuable Knick. :)

    65. KnickfaninNJ

      Juany8:
      Oh man Jeremy Lin just got demoted to shooting guard lol. Patrick Beverly is starting, guarding Westbrook, and bringing the ball up (switching up with Harden really). Lin’s ceiling might really be a rich man’s JJ Barea (and the Mavs didn’t mind the normal Barea, so it’s so bad)

      If I understand you correctly he’s still starting and so Harden but Beverly is also starting. That’s not necessarily a demotion. Is it a demotion for Felton when Prigioni starts alongside him? Maybe Houston is impressed with Woodson’s moves.

    66. Juany8

      By the way I love Dwight Howard saying that “everyone knows” why he finished 14th in DPOY voting. Of course we do, you were playing on a shitty defensive team and looked like a shell of your former self for vast stretches of the season. Of course Serge Ibaka beating out guys like Omer Asik and Joakim Noah is a travesty, so the award shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Gasol was a good choice though

    67. Juany8

      KnickfaninNJ: If I understand you correctly he’s still starting and so Harden but Beverly is also starting.That’s not necessarily a demotion.Is it a demotion for Felton when Prigioni starts alongside him? Maybe Houston is impressed with Woodson’s moves.

      Prigs doesn’t play more minutes than Felton. Kind of a meaningful distinction, especially since we’ve also started the likes of James White, Copeland, Kurt Thomas, and literally any body we can throw in there so we can keep JR coming off the bench and Melo at the 4. Prigs also doesn’t normally have a higher usage or number of assists than Felton.

      So the real analogy is that Beverly is Felton and Lin is Prigs. And yes, if Prigs started playing more minutes than Felton and taking a bigger role in the offense, I would absolutely call that a demotion. Lin is now the 4th option on the Rockets, and is being asked to guard the weakest offensive player on the opposing team. Right now I’m not sure I’d take him over Prigs for the Knicks.

    68. KnickfaninNJ

      If Lin is playing fewer minutes than before then I agree, that’s a deMotion. I’m not watching the game so I can’t tell if that’s the case.

    69. jon abbey

      Lin got hurt in the first half anyway. he looked better in the first half than game 1, but still not very good.

    70. Juany8

      Rockets really need some kind of inside presence, they rely far too much on fast break points and pick and rolls attacks from the perimeter. It works decently well when they go small and shoot lights out, but parsons is not a particularly good defensive power forward. The defense just falls apart and quite a few teams are just as capable of going small and actually defending well. I’d love to get LaMarcus Aldridge somehow, but I don’t know how much of a possibility that is. Harden could really benefit from some kind of mid range game too, even a floater would help him when he can’t fully get to the rim.

    71. johnlocke

      Asik taking over! Harden unclutch thus far…

      Juany8:
      Rockets really need some kind of inside presence, they rely far too much on fast break points and pick and rolls attacks from the perimeter. It works decently well when they go small and shoot lights out, but parsons is not a particularly good defensive power forward. The defense just falls apart and quite a few teams are just as capable of going small and actually defending well. I’d love to get LaMarcus Aldridge somehow, but I don’t know how much of a possibility that is. Harden could really benefit from some kind of mid range game too, even a floater would help him when he can’t fully get to the rim.

    72. Juany8

      Will the Thrill:
      Even with those, Beverly is playing awesome lol

      Might be the best rockets player tonight, him and asik have brought the rockets all the way back. Harden playing pretty hard too, it not particularly efficiently.

    73. ess-dog

      Juany8:
      Oh man Jeremy Lin just got demoted to shooting guard lol. Patrick Beverly is starting, guarding Westbrook, and bringing the ball up (switching up with Harden really). Lin’s ceiling might really be a rich man’s JJ Barea (and the Mavs didn’t mind the normal Barea, so it’s so bad)

      LOL the Rockets are just trying finding someone who can stay in front of possibly the fastest player in the NBA. Do you think Felton or anyone but a few people can guard Wesbrook much better? SMH at the nonstop Lin hate.

      As for the rebounding issue, I just think DRed is saying sure, rebounding isn’t a perfect stat, but no one knows how varied of a stat it is. Agreed that per minute isn’t an accurate stat, and there are clearly outlier rebounds that are meaningless for every team. But I don’t think you can write off individual rebounding stats as meaningless.

      I think what’s interesting is how different teams have drastically different styles of play now due to personnel. The Spurs offense vs. the Heat for instance, a passing offense or an isolation offense. Both can do well, but they create for a wide variance in team stats. It’s funny how the Knicks went from a motion offense to an iso offense almost overnight (clearly the right move if you have Melo) and it made a hell of a difference.

    74. johnlocke

      Kenyon Martin interviews are some of the best in the business… he will literally say almost anything with complete confidence

      KnickfaninNJ:
      Kenyon Martin was quoted today in the NY Times recently:

      “It [Boston signing him in February] was real close,” he said. “Like, the deal was almost done. They didn’t pull the trigger. So now I’m here and I’m going to make them pay.”

      I hope he does.He’s off to a good start.

    75. Juany8

      Lol OKC started playing like the series was over. Totally disjointed right now, kind of funny to watch.

    76. Juany8

      Asik is getting every rocket miss. Was kind of worried this series would be a straight blowout, although if the rockets actually have to rely on Aaron Brooks it might be. Hoping for a win tonight at least

    77. johnlocke

      This is exciting… will be interesting to see who takes the shots down the stretch Westbrooke or Durant..(I’m thinking Westbrook). Durant forgot one “Second” on his SI cover article. I’m “second on my time in both being an alpha male and taking shots”…despite leading the league in scoring the last three years

      Juany8:
      Lol OKC started playing like the series was over. Totally disjointed right now, kind of funny to watch.

    78. Hubert Davis

      What’s up w the ref staring at Perkins mugging “parson chandler” (as fratello called him) and not calling it? On the replay they showed him staring right at it!

    79. Juany8

      johnlocke:
      This is exciting… will be interesting to see who takes the shots down the stretch Westbrooke or Durant..(I’m thinking Westbrook). Durant forgot one “Second” on his SI cover article. I’m “second on my time in both being an alpha male and taking shots”…despite leading the league in scoring the last three years

      The answer…. Sefalosha and ibaka lol. And of course they make them…. Kind of scary that the thunder are actually passing well though; they were last in the league in assists last year if I recall correctly

    80. Juany8

      Hubert Davis:
      What’s up w the ref staring at Perkins mugging “parson chandler” (as fratello called him) and not calling it?On the replay they showed him staring right at it!

      Been a lot of odd calls near the end, sefalosha got called for a foul for being elbowed in the face inadvertently. Neither of these teams has much of a right to complain about refs though lol, between Durant, harden, and Kevin Martin draw a lot of floppy fouls.

    81. yellowboy90

      Juany8:
      Rockets really need some kind of inside presence, they rely far too much on fast break points and pick and rolls attacks from the perimeter. It works decently well when they go small and shoot lights out, but parsons is not a particularly good defensive power forward. The defense just falls apart and quite a few teams are just as capable of going small and actually defending well. I’d love to get LaMarcus Aldridge somehow, but I don’t know how much of a possibility that is. Harden could really benefit from some kind of mid range game too, even a floater would help him when he can’t fully get to the rim.

      How would J.J. Hickson look with Houston.

    82. johnlocke

      Yeh, despite the Perkins grab, that was a great pass by Durant. Harden missing FTs comes back to bite them in the ass. Harden is 9-24 this game after a really inefficient game 1…

      Juany8: The answer…. Sefalosha and ibaka lol. And of course they make them…. Kind of scary that the thunder are actually passing well though; they were last in the league in assists last year if I recall correctly

    83. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      yellowboy90: How would J.J. Hickson look with Houston.

      I think Millsap is more deserving of a big deal, but either one wouldn’t hurt.

    84. johnlocke

      Btw man Atlanta sucks. Indiana scoring 111 against them tonight. ATL is putting up no resistance. Good luck to whoever gives Josh Smith a max deal this summer.

    85. Unreason

      Re the convo on rebounding.
      Numbers and examples that illustrate their meaning could reduce the frustration at talking past each other. Qualitative descriptions like “is consistent from year to year” aren’t well defined. That’s part of what makes it hard for everyone to agree on what they mean. Anchoring the meaning in a quantitative measure across a range of cases could help.

      E.g, if the question is: Do individual rebounding rates reflect a fixed skill that is not significantly affected by team mates? A way to start investigating that would be to calculate and compare the same consistency measure on rebounding and other skills that clearly are or are not affected by team mates.

      These are made up coefficient of variation (CV: Mean/SD) #s over one regular season among all NBA players with an average of 5+ total PnR PPG with 2+ PnR partners. They illustrate how doing something like this might be useful.

      Skill Measure CV Affected by team mates?
      Free throws FT% 2% No
      Rebounding TRR% 12% ?
      Pick n roll scoring PnR/TotPt% 22% Yes

      If % of points off PnR are clearly related to team mates and FT % clearly isn’t and the CV for total rebounding rate of 12% is midway between those two, it gives a more meaningful sense both of how consistent rebounding is and how it might be affected by team mates. Nothing definitive, obviously, but maybe a more start than a qualitative description alone.

    86. Juany8

      yellowboy90: I was thinking of him too but though Hickson may come cheaper and Hickson is 24.

      Don’t think Hickson Would make much of a difference but he’d be a nice fallback option. I like Millsap for the Rockets, but he won’t take that much offensive pressure off Harden, which might be more important than rebounding or defense with Asik inside and Parsons growing.Maybe one of the rookies actually does something who knows.

    87. flossy

      Juany8:
      Rockets really need some kind of inside presence, they rely far too much on fast break points and pick and rolls attacks from the perimeter. It works decently well when they go small and shoot lights out, but parsons is not a particularly good defensive power forward. The defense just falls apart and quite a few teams are just as capable of going small and actually defending well. I’d love to get LaMarcus Aldridge somehow, but I don’t know how much of a possibility that is. Harden could really benefit from some kind of mid range game too, even a floater would help him when he can’t fully get to the rim.

      Houston should go after Josh Smith. Asik and Smith would make up for a lot of bad backcourt defense, and Smith is a beast in transition (and will shoot the 3, for better or worse). Asik/Smith/Pasons is is a solid core in support of Harden and hopefully Lin takes a step forward also.

    88. er

      flossy: Houston should go after Josh Smith.Asik and Smith would make up for a lot of bad backcourt defense, and Smith is a beast in transition (and will shoot the 3, for better or worse).Asik/Smith/Pasons is is a solid core in support of Harden and hopefully Lin takes a step forward also.

      Lin will probably be traded next yr

    89. lavor postell

      flossy: Houston should go after Josh Smith.Asik and Smith would make up for a lot of bad backcourt defense, and Smith is a beast in transition (and will shoot the 3, for better or worse).Asik/Smith/Pasons is is a solid core in support of Harden and hopefully Lin takes a step forward also.

      Right but Smith/Asik kills your floor spacing offensively which is huge for Harden. They are built around spreading the floor for Harden where he can attack the rim with little resistance. They would benefit slightly from his transition ability and defensive ability, but I think you could expect both Lin and Harden’s numbers to nosedive if paired with a Smith/Asik frontcourt.

    90. lavor postell

      er: Lin will probably be traded next yr

      How many teams really want to take on Lin knowing he’s got 15 mill coming his way in 2015? Lin is not an easy contract to pawn off under the new CBA.

    91. lavor postell

      johnlocke:
      Kenyon Martin interviews are some of the best in the business… he will literally say almost anything with complete confidence

      Kind of refreshing to see a guy confident enough to give you some real answers to a question.

    92. jon abbey

      yeah, no one is trading for Lin. the funniest part of that whole thing last summer is when people like THCJ said he could always be traded down the road, when it was obvious that if he didn’t play well, no one was taking the last year or two of that deal.

    93. Tony Pena

      I see 8,8,8 in other sites. Regardless, it’s Lin vs. Felton + JR, so… that’s pretty clear.

    94. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Hindsight bias has nothing to do with the selection of variables in this case. We know the four things that a team must do to win games. We know this. This is objectively true. We know that scoring efficiently, offensive rebounding, turnovers, and free throws are the key to success on both sides of the ball, and they can predict game outcome with exceeding accuracy. All WP48 tries to do, like the other linear metrics, is determine the value of each of those variables on the individual level. If WP48 is guilty of hindsight bias, so is the Four Factors method.

      Each of these 4 things is hugely dependent on other things: role, game plan, teammates; to ignore this is beyond simple-minded. Ronnie Brewer is a bad basketball player. Landry Fields is a bad basketball player. That WP48 grossly inflates their talent, skill, value, etc. is enough to completely abandon the metric.

    95. Z-man

      So, after a Landry Fields-like playoff performance, Jeremy Lin first gets benched in favor the immortal Patrick Beverley and then gets hurt. Felton is posting a .200+ WS48. Anyone still think matching that “ridiculous” contract was a no-brainer?

    96. Nick C.

      Sheesh yet when THCJ or someone comes in “i tolda ya soing” all over the place they get lambasted. Apparently its endemic here and beyond tedious.

    97. Juany8

      Z-man:
      So, after a Landry Fields-like playoff performance, Jeremy Lin first gets benched in favor the immortal Patrick Beverley and then gets hurt. Felton is posting a .200+ WS48. Anyone still think matching that “ridiculous” contract was a no-brainer?

      Ok I will say that if we just look at the cap situation, the trade off talent wise would be Lin and Prigs, not Felton. I don’t know that I’d take prigs over Lin talent wise the next 3 years, so looking at it from the perspective that I don’t give a shit how big dolan’s tax bill is (I’m not paying for it) it was still a smart move to match. I did think he’d play better than he has though, and I thought he’d stay well known enough to always have some dumb suitor. As it turns out most teams seem to like the fact that he’s not doing much. Makes them look less dumb for passing up on him when he was out there for free.

      He is being pretty badly outplayed by Patrick Beverly though….

    98. Juany8

      As far as lin’s salary, he is getting paid $5, $5, $15. However, the hit on the rockets cap space is only $8 million a year. The cap hit is not always the same as the salary, as in the case of bought out players. I could be wrong however, someone with more knowledge of the cap could probably provide a better answer

    99. Frank

      Pretty much feeling that (assuming we get by the Celts and the Pacers continue their Hawk-ass-kicking) this second round series against the Pacers is going to be a war. Still think we take them because their offense is not good.

    100. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Z-man: Each of these 4 things is hugely dependent on other things: role, game plan, teammates; to ignore this is beyond simple-minded.Ronnie Brewer is a bad basketball player. Landry Fields is a bad basketball player. That WP48 grossly inflates their talent, skill, value, etc. is enough to completely abandon the metric.

      Moneyball, Moneyball, Moneyball…

    101. flossy

      lavor postell: Right but Smith/Asik kills your floor spacing offensively which is huge for Harden.They are built around spreading the floor for Harden where he can attack the rim with little resistance.They would benefit slightly from his transition ability and defensive ability, but I think you could expect both Lin and Harden’s numbers to nosedive if paired with a Smith/Asik frontcourt.

      I think you’d have the same problem with any of the FA big men on the market this summer. Paul Millsap is not exactly going to be raining threes either. Smith, at least, thrives in transition and is an elite defender. Millsap is definitely a better rebounder (though on a team with Asik, that’s probably less important) and a more efficient scorer, but he does his work close to the basket.

    102. lavor postell

      flossy: I think you’d have the same problem with any of the FA big men on the market this summer.Paul Millsap is not exactly going to be raining threes either.Smith, at least, thrives in transition and is an elite defender.Millsap is definitely a better rebounder (though on a team with Asik, that’s probably less important) and a more efficient scorer, but he does his work close to the basket.

      Difference being you’d have to respect Millsap from the mid-range since that’s his bread and butter. Smith is an abominable shooter in all regards who insists on hoisting terrible shots from the perimeter. Other than Millsap you’re abolsutely right though. We really are spoiled having a superstar like Carmelo who can play the 4 the way that he is capable of.

    103. Juany8

      flossy: I think you’d have the same problem with any of the FA big men on the market this summer.Paul Millsap is not exactly going to be raining threes either.Smith, at least, thrives in transition and is an elite defender.Millsap is definitely a better rebounder (though on a team with Asik, that’s probably less important) and a more efficient scorer, but he does his work close to the basket.

      That’s why my ideal is Aldridge. He can shoot the mid range well enough to provide spacing, kg works fine for spacing despite the lack of a 3 point shot. Josh smith can’t really shoot though, he just wouldn’t help that much for the contract you’re paying him.

    104. flossy

      Juany8: That’s why my ideal is Aldridge. He can shoot the mid range well enough to provide spacing, kg works fine for spacing despite the lack of a 3 point shot. Josh smith can’t really shoot though, he just wouldn’t help that much for the contract you’re paying him.

      Well, of course someone like Aldridge (or Kevin Love) would be best, but I’m just thinking of people who are actually free agents this off-season. I haven’t watched enough Rockets games this year to have a super informed opinion, but it certainly seems like defense and not offense is what’s holding the team back. There’s only so far you can go when almost everyone is a negative on defense except your starting center (although that does sound familiar…).

    105. AHouston20

      yellowboy90: I was thinking of him too but though Hickson may come cheaper and Hickson is 24.

      I live in Portland, and from what I have seen of Hickson I wouldn’t ever pay him more than 4 million a year. He’s truly atrocious defensively; he’s basically like a chicken with his head cut off out there. He rebounds a lot but as Highkin from USA Today sports likes to point out the Blazers rebounded slightly better with him on the bench this season. I think he is definitely a player who chases rebounding stats. I don’t think he solves anything for Houston, Greg Smith is probably better than him and much cheaper

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