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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Oct 09 2012)

  • [New York Daily News] Melo fit and ready to lead Knicks (Tue, 09 Oct 2012 03:39:17 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony has usually had to work his way into top shape in training camp after a typical off-season. Not this time. He and Tyson Chandler, the Knicks’ other gold-medal winner in London, reported to camp in prime condition.

  • 70 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Oct 09 2012)

    1. Frank

      Shump shooting corner 3′s – video on the front page of theknicksblog.com. Looks pretty good to me although is not really jumpshooting at this point (more like a set shot).

    2. David Crockett

      You know hoops is just around the corner when you get a patented in-the-best-shape-of-his-life article.

    3. Nick C.

      I seem to recall those articles last season too. On Amare-Hakeem, did they workout again in the last week or two because this is otherwise news that seems to have been originally reported months ago.

    4. d-mar

      David Crockett:
      You know hoops is just around the corner when you get a patented in-the-best-shape-of-his-life article.

      Although I’m not sure Raymond Felton could have made that claim before last season with the Blazers

    5. ruruland

      David Crockett:
      You know hoops is just around the corner when you get a patented in-the-best-shape-of-his-life article.

      Youll continue to hear about it, because it will be obvious to everyone.

      The only year he came in out of shape was ’04. He’s always put in a lot of off-season work. But this was next level.

      He’s in the best shape of his career — better then ’09 and ’06.

      Here’s how he started those years prior to the wheels coming off (injuries ’09, suspensio, Iverson trade in ’06)

      First 30 games prior to elbow injury suffered against Mavs: 30.4/6.4/3.3/2.9 .478/35/871 TS: .581 TS 34.2 usage, 116 Orating

      Probably the league’s MVP at that point
      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/gamelog/2010/

      2006: 22 games prior to suspension

      31.6/5.6/4.1 .503/265/801 .570 TS, 35.4 usage
      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/gamelog/2010/

      This year: less demand to create, more off-ball opportunities, better 3pt shooter then he was in ’09 and certainly ’06, 20 pound weight loss should get his finishing back to where it was in ’07.

    6. njasdjdh

      Ahhh, ruru in mid-season form with cherry-picked Melo stats that have no relevance to any sort of reasonable discussion of what to expect from Melo.

    7. ruruland

      njasdjdh:
      Ahhh, ruru in mid-season form with cherry-picked Melo stats that have no relevance to any sort of reasonable discussion of what to expect from Melo.

      You’re right, players will almost always perform the same.Any fluctuations are completely random or due to age. Therefore, Melo will be horrible this year.
      You are born the way you play.

    8. ruruland

      njasdjdh:
      Ahhh, ruru in mid-season form with cherry-picked Melo stats that have no relevance to any sort of reasonable discussion of what to expect from Melo.

      Right here, right now, what’s your Melo TS projection.

    9. njasdjdh

      ruruland: You’re right, players will almost always perform the same.Any fluctuations are completely random or due to age. Therefore, Melo will be horrible this year.
      You are born the way you play.

      Melo is not horrible, he’s an extremely skilled guy, solid player at the 3, star at the 4. That’s how I feel. My point is that there is absolutely nothing instructive from these stretches of brilliant play you choose to highlight. Players are always going to get hurt, shit is always going to go wrong, so you can’t really take much from how they play when everything is perfect. It’s more instructive to look at the body of work as a whole.

    10. ruruland

      njasdjdh: Melo is not horrible, he’s an extremely skilled guy, solid player at the 3, star at the 4. That’s how I feel. My point is that there is absolutely nothing instructive from these stretches of brilliant play you choose to highlight. Players are always going to get hurt, shit is always going to go wrong, so you can’t really take much from how they play when everything is perfect. It’s more instructive to look at the body of work as a whole.

      Did Melo play any differently on the Olympic team then he did with the Knicks last year?

      Is there anything instructive about that contrast?

      Is it ok to ignore the difference in efficiency between assisted and unassisted attempts?

      Do you think it is harder to sustain high efficiency over an 82 game season when you’re at 35 % usage and virtually every posession is a wrestling match with the opponent’s best wing defender?

      Is it possible that has a cumulative effect on the body? Is it possible that a more worn/banged up body is less likely to produce fluid movements?

      Do most NBA players have 35% usage and do most play the way Melo has?

      Could it be that reducing the burden on Melo to create shots will not only lead to a higher proportion of efficient attempts, but will allow him to stay healthier over an entire season?

      Is it possible that a player is affected by a suspension and the change from a passing point guard to the highest-usage shooting point guard in NBA history?

      Is it possible that losing 20 pounds has a positive effect on an NBA player?

      So, Melo is an average NBA small forward. Lin is better then him, right?

      What’ your projection for Melo’s TS%?

    11. Frank

      I think Melo has it in him to have a Paul Pierce-like change in his game at this age. He’s certainly saying all the right things so far. Not sure he’ll ever be as good a 3 point shooter as Pierce who has shot high 30s for the last half-decade. Their main difference otherwise is really shot distribution – Melo just really has to stop settling for those long 2s. Hopefully there will be fewer possessions this year that require him bailing the team out with a few seconds left on the shot clock.

      I’ll say a TS of 56.5 on usage a shade under 30.

    12. jon abbey

      if Melo and JR Smith would both stop settling for so many 22 footers, I’d feel a notch better about the team.

    13. njasdjdh

      ruruland: Did Melo play any differently on the Olympic team then he did with the Knicks last year?

      Yes.

      Is there anything instructive about that contrast?

      No. Vastly different role, different rules (3 point line).

      Is it ok to ignore the difference in efficiency between assisted and unassisted attempts?

      No.

      Do you think it is harder to sustain high efficiency over an 82 game season when you’re at 35 % usage and virtually every posession is a wrestling match with the opponent’s best wing defender?

      Yes.

      Is it possible that has a cumulative effect on the body? Is it possible that a more worn/banged up body is less likely to produce fluid movements?

      Yes. Yes.

      Do most NBA players have 35% usage and do most play the way Melo has?

      No.

      Could it be that reducing the burden on Melo to create shots will not only lead to a higher proportion of efficient attempts, but will allow him to stay healthier over an entire season?

      Perhaps.

      Is it possible that a player is affected by a suspension and the change from a passing point guard to the highest-usage shooting point guard in NBA history?

      Sure.

      Is it possible that losing 20 pounds has a positive effect on an NBA player?

      Sure.

      So, Melo is an average NBA small forward. Lin is better then him, right?

      I never said he was average, I said he was solid. Not sure how you misread that. I will chalk it up to differing interpretations of the word. I didn’t mention Lin in my post, not sure why he’s relevant to this discussion.

      What’ your projection for Melo’s TS%?

      See above.

    14. JK47

      Melo’s TS% will probably be the same it always is, somewhere between .540 and .560. The guy is actually a pretty consistent performer who has pretty much the same season year in, year out so I don’t know why anybody would expect a huge breakthrough. TS% around .550, WS/48 around .140, first round playoff exit. Just another year at the office.

    15. njasdjdh

      ruruland: Why higher than last season?

      I meant 54.1, which is still higher than last season, but I think Melo (like the rest of the league) had a bit of a down year. I think the difference compared to the league average will be smaller than the year to year number would indicate.

      I think the disconnect that we are having is that you believe that if A, B, C change then Melo will now do X instead of Y. In theory, I recognize the validity of that, but…Melo has been incredibly consistent over the course of his career regardless of who he’s played with and how healthy he’s been (in terms of what his year end numbers look like, not what your cherry-picked portions of the schedule look like). So, in the end, I’m extremely confident Melo will score 26-29 points per 40 with a TS somewhere around the league average while doing a good job on the boards and being a defensive sieve. That all assumes he plays the 3. If he plays the 4, then I have some hope.

    16. ruruland

      nja:

      Regarding Melo’s consistency, that’s simply not true.

      If you look at Melo’s career through the prism of single-seasons, then yes, Melo has been pretty consistent.

      But if you actually looked at how his shots break down with the teammates he’s surrounded by over the course of multiple seasons, and I’ve broken them down on this board before, you’ll notice that there is significant change based on the kinds of point guards he plays with.

      Melo’s first and second years were inefficient compared to everything prior to last year. A lot of players his age struggle. And it took him time to develop an NBA body and mentality.

      But if you take a look at his numbers from early December 2005 — when many felt things really started to click for him — and take it through the next 90 or so games (prior to the Andre Miller trade), Melo shoots over 50% from the field with a .573 TS.

      That’s more than a full season where he was way above league average efficiency on extremely high usage.

      The sample is large, larger than a regular NA season, but was it cherry-picked?

      No, it is not random. In that sample, around 60% of Melo’s baskets are assisted by one of the better passing point guards in the NBA.

      When the Nuggets trade for Iverson, Melo’s efficiency takes a dramatic dip for the first 40 or so games with Iverson. But more importantly, his assisted basket percentage takes an even larger dip.

      But around December of 2007, Melo’s numbers start ticking up again dramatically. In his last 62 games with Allen Iveron, Melo’s ts% is .577.

      What changes? Well, his assisted baskets don’t go up, but his offensive rebound rate skyrockets.

      Melo learned how to play with Iverson by attacking the offensive glass on his wild forays to the basket.

      From the time Andre Miller was traded, Melo was forced to become an isolation-dominant offensive player.

      Maybe I’ll put together some a tend line with Melo’s assisted basket percentage and his…

    17. ruruland

      JK47:
      Melo’s TS% will probably be the same it always is, somewhere between .540 and .560.The guy is actually a pretty consistent performer who has pretty much the same season year in, year out so I don’t know why anybody would expect a huge breakthrough.TS% around .550, WS/48 around .140, first round playoff exit.Just another year at the office.

      You think the Knicks will lose in the first round if they’re relatively healthy and have HCA? Melo’s never lost in that situation. Or do you think the Knicks will finish outside the top 4 seeds?

    18. Juany8

      JK47:
      Melo’s TS% will probably be the same it always is, somewhere between .540 and .560.The guy is actually a pretty consistent performer who has pretty much the same season year in, year out so I don’t know why anybody would expect a huge breakthrough.TS% around .550, WS/48 around .140, first round playoff exit.Just another year at the office.

      He’s averaged around a .160 WS with the Knicks, and it hasn’t exactly been under ideal conditions lol. Futhermore, I think a healthy Knicks team is at least as good, if not better, than the Pacers, Sixers, Nets, Hawks, or whoever takes the Hawks’ place if they fall. There’s an excellent chance of the Knicks advancing to the second round, and a decent chance of them making them the ECF (Boston and Chicago are both suspect because of health issues) There’s simply no way any team in the East is actually beating Miami though lol

    19. ruruland

      Melo will be playing with the same caliber passing point guards — probably better — then he played with at any point in his career.

      When Melo played alongside Andre Miller, he hadn’t developed a 3pt shot, which actually made them a pretty redundant combination. The 3pt shot is the reason Melo will break his efficiency high this season.

      Melo should also see a usage decrease as Amar’e’s usage increases because he’ll be more easily utilized, which should lead to a higher percentage of good shots for both players.

      Let me ask you and anyone else these two basic questions.

      Is is true that the biggest reason Melo’s efficiency is middling is because he takes far too many difficult two-point shots?

      Is it also demonstrably true that over his career those kinds of shots get reduced when he plays alongside playmaking point guards?

      And for extra credit, shouldn’t Melo be able to eclipse his previous efficiency high now that he has a 3pt shot in combination with passing point guards?

    20. njasdjdh

      Ruru, I acknowledge all you’re saying, but what it comes down to, for me, is that there have been years where Melo got more assisted baskets than others, years where he could shoot the 3, years where he couldn’t shoot the 3, years where he played with ball hogs, years where he played with good/great passers and these are his TSs since he became Melo (i.e. after his 2nd year): 56.3, 55.2, 56.8, 53.2, 54.8, 55.7, 52.5. That, to me, is remarkably consistent. I would be absolutely shocked if Melo, 5 years removed from his high in TS%, would suddenly eclipse that high now that he’s playing with those Raymond Felton and the corpse of Jason Kidd.

    21. ruruland

      njasdjdh: Ruru, I acknowledge all you’re saying, but what it comes down to, for me, is that there have been years where Melo got more assisted baskets than others, years where he could shoot the 3, years where he couldn’t shoot the 3, years where he played with ball hogs, years where he played with good/great passers and these are his TSs since he became Melo (i.e. after his 2nd year): 56.3, 55.2, 56.8, 53.2, 54.8, 55.7, 52.5. That, to me, is remarkably consistent. I would be absolutely shocked if Melo, 5 years removed from his high in TS%, would suddenly eclipse that high now that he’s playing with those Raymond Felton and the corpse of Jason Kidd.

      Why is it hard for folks to acknowledge that Felton and Kidd are good, possibly very good passers? Great offensive players? No

      They’re both likely to be considerably better than any outside of Lin, that Melo or Amar’e has played with in New York.

      And Melo’s assisted attempts went way up with Lin, as I documented a few months ago.

    22. Juany8

      Melo might get a career high in TS%, but it’s not going over .580. The simply reason is that he doesn’t get easy transition opportunities for himself the way other star wings do. It’s a similar problem to Kobe, they’re great in half court sets but simply aren’t speed demons like a lot of lesser players are. Add in the fact that they’re only solid at spot up shooting, and it means that they’re just never going to be as super efficient as someone like Durant or Lebron, players who take a fuck ton of dumb shots too. Kobe’s efficiency will probably go up since he now has a secondary offensive creator in Nash to free up some of his responsibilities, but Melo is going to have to create a fair bit of the offense against elite pick and roll defenses who will be happy to let Felton shoot as much as he wants. The only way Melo’s TS% will increase significantly, regardless of Melo’s improvement, is if he becomes an elite spot up threat, and starts shooting 38%+ from 3. I like Melo but I see that as unlikely lol

    23. Juany8

      Also some interesting fodder for discussion: Melo’s WS/48 in the playoffs the last 4 years has been better than Paul Pierce’s. You can’t say it’s because Melo has been losing in the first round since the only year he advanced past the first round he had a .201 WS/48 for the playoffs. If he’s performing at Paul Pierce levels in the playoffs, is that still nowhere near good enough? No one is saying he’s suddenly going to turn into a top 5 player in the NBA….

    24. Frank

      njasdjdh:
      Ruru, I acknowledge all you’re saying, but what it comes down to, for me, is that there have been years where Melo got more assisted baskets than others, years where he could shoot the 3, years where he couldn’t shoot the 3, years where he played with ball hogs, years where he played with good/great passers and these are his TSs since he became Melo (i.e. after his 2nd year): 56.3, 55.2, 56.8, 53.2, 54.8, 55.7, 52.5. That, to me, is remarkably consistent. I would be absolutely shocked if Melo, 5 years removed from his high in TS%, would suddenly eclipse that high now that he’s playing with those Raymond Felton and the corpse of Jason Kidd.

      You’re probably right. But look at Paul Pierce and how his game completely changed in the 2007-2008 season and afterward – usage down, shots down, efficiency up.

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01.html

      There are a few possible explanations for this – unforutnately hoopdata only goes back to the 2006-7 season but he abruptly started taking about 2 fewer 16-23 foot jumpers/game, so that helped his overall efficiency. IN addition, 07-08 was the arrival of the big 3, so presumably he received less defensive attention that year. But crucially, that was also the year that Rajon Rondo became an everyday starter, taking over for the pupu platter that was Sebastian Telfair and Delonte West.

      Before Rondo got there, Pierce actually led the team in assists, followed by West and Ricky Davis!. He had a pretty good efficiency that year and the year before when Gary Payton was the PG (I don’t remember GP on the celts at all?). Then had 2 awful efficiency years TS 51.7 and 53.2 when he had Jiri Welsch and Mike James manning the point, or Antoine Walker mostly bringing the ball up.

      Of course I’m biased, but I see a lot of similarities here. I think Melo will have a very good year.

    25. thenamestsam

      Juany8:
      Also some interesting fodder for discussion: Melo’s WS/48 in the playoffs the last 4 years has been better than Paul Pierce’s. You can’t say it’s because Melo has been losing in the first round since the only year he advanced past the first round he had a .201 WS/48 for the playoffs. If he’s performing at Paul Pierce levels in the playoffs, is that still nowhere near good enough? No one is saying he’s suddenly going to turn into a top 5 player in the NBA….

      I do think he’s capable of raising his game to a Paul Pierce level. Your question is “Is that still nowhere near good enough?” I think the reality is that a lot will be in the hands of his teammates. Pierce never won shit without a great cast around him, and until he won he had plenty of critics. He certainly didn’t have the rep that he does now.

      If Melo plays like Pierce then we can win it all as long as the team around him is very strong. I don’t think we’re strong enough, partially because the top teams in the league are better than they were when the Celtics won, and partially because I don’t think our supporting cast is as strong as Pierce’s was. I love Tyson, but KG when they won was much better than what Tyson is, and the rest of that cast was solid. We have them beat 8-12 maybe, but that part doesn’t matter much.

      Reality is until he wins something Melo will be criticized, even if he plays as well or better than Pierce. Not fair, but true.

    26. johnlocke

      It isn’t rocket science. Melo’s issue is and has been for a long time the fact that he takes too many long 2s, many contested and it’s one of the main reasons he’s not as efficient. Hidden in the back and forth between njasdjdh (that’s your name?) and ruru is whether Melo wants to / can change. Ultimately we won’t know until the rubber hits the road but he’s saying all the right things. Lebron had his best TS% year of his career by reducing his number of 3 point attempts dramatically, from an average of about 4.5 attempts per game over the last 5 seasons to 2.4 attempts per game last year. Last season was the first season in which Kevin Durant shot more threes than 16-23 footers – he had a career high in TS%. Will Melo change? Ruru is saying if he has a PG that can pass he will, NJ… not so much. Melo shoots primarily layups and 16-23 footers (~66% of his shots). It’s also the area of the floor in which his shot is least assisted. In 2008 when Melo shot his highest TS% for a full season, his assisted baskets rate was the highest ever FOR 16-23 FOOTERS… so I think it’s both a function of having better PGs AND Melo shooting different shots / shot selection that could lead to a much more efficient season. He has the point guards (maybe), but will he change?

    27. jon abbey

      Woodson says JR won’t start at the 2 guard, even with Shumpert out and Brewer possibly not ready for Opening Day. Kidd and Felton both starting, maybe?

    28. ruruland

      Juany8:
      Melo might get a career high in TS%, but it’s not going over .580. The simply reason is that he doesn’t get easy transition opportunities for himself the way other star wings do. It’s a similar problem to Kobe, they’re great in half court sets but simply aren’t speed demons like a lot of lesser players are. Add in the fact that they’re only solid at spot up shooting, and it means that they’re just never going to be as super efficient as someone like Durant or Lebron, players who take a fuck ton of dumb shots too. Kobe’s efficiency will probably go up since he now has a secondary offensive creator in Nash to free up some of his responsibilities, but Melo is going to have to create a fair bit of the offense against elite pick and roll defenses who will be happy to let Felton shoot as much as he wants. The only way Melo’s TS% will increase significantly, regardless of Melo’s improvement, is if he becomes an elite spot up threat, and starts shooting 38%+ from 3. I like Melo but I see that as unlikely lol

      he will set career high mark from 3 this year. Melo obviously is never going to get the amount of transition dunks Lebron or Wade get.

      But let’s remember that Andre Miller, like Jason Kidd, is a great pass ahead transition pg-like the outlet pass, a highly underrated skill.

      Melo was among the league leaders in dunks in’05, ’06 and ’07. When he’s this small he can fill the wing. A 235 pound Melo is much faster than a 260 pound Melo.

    29. ruruland

      jon abbey:
      Woodson says JR won’t start at the 2 guard, even with Shumpert out and Brewer possibly not ready for Opening Day. Kidd and Felton both starting, maybe?

      Id imagine

    30. thenamestsam

      jon abbey:
      Woodson says JR won’t start at the 2 guard, even with Shumpert out and Brewer possibly not ready for Opening Day. Kidd and Felton both starting, maybe?

      I think it’ll be Kidd and Felton. Honestly, at this point Kidd is more of a 2 anyway in my opinion. He can’t guard the point, and he’s not going to dominate the ball on offense because he can’t penetrate at all. In half court sets he mostly camps outside the 3 points range. If Woodson really intends to keep a lot of Dantoni’s concepts and plays (what we’ve been hearing) then he can’t really plan to play Kidd at PG much. Kidd doesn’t run Pick and Roll anymore. He’s basically the furthest thing from a Dantoni PG.

      It will be super interesting to see what the rotation looks like.

    31. ruruland

      johnlocke:
      It isn’t rocket science. Melo’s issue is and has been for a long time the fact that he takes too many long 2s, many contested and it’s one of the main reasons he’s not as efficient. Hidden in the back and forth between njasdjdh (that’s your name?) and ruru is whether Melo wants to / can change. Ultimately we won’t know until the rubber hits the road but he’s saying all the right things.Lebron had his best TS% year of his career by reducing his number of 3 point attempts dramatically, from an average of about 4.5 attempts per game over the last 5 seasons to 2.4 attempts per game last year. Last season was the first season in which Kevin Durant shot more threes than 16-23 footers – he had a career high in TS%.Will Melo change? Ruru is saying if he has a PG that can pass he will, NJ… not so much. Melo shoots primarily layups and 16-23 footers (~66% of his shots). It’s also the area of the floor in which his shot is least assisted. In 2008 when Melo shot his highest TS% for a full season, his assisted baskets rate was the highest ever FOR 16-23 FOOTERS… so I think it’s both a function of having better PGs AND Melo shooting different shots / shot selection that could lead to a much more efficient season. He has the point guards (maybe), but will he change?

      great post. Look at how Melo has played on Team USA. Question why his assisted basket rate was high early onion his career? Choice or necessity or perceived necessity?

    32. ruruland

      thenamestsam: I think it’ll be Kidd and Felton. Honestly, at this point Kidd is more of a 2 anyway in my opinion. He can’t guard the point, and he’s not going to dominate the ball on offense because he can’t penetrate at all. In half court sets he mostly camps outside the 3 points range. If Woodson really intends to keep a lot of Dantoni’s concepts and plays (what we’ve been hearing) then he can’t really plan to play Kidd at PG much. Kidd doesn’t run Pick and Roll anymore. He’s basically the furthest thing from a Dantoni PG.

      It will be super interesting to see what the rotation looks like.

      Not necessarily true. He ran a lot of PnR last season. He’s not a great penetrator but he’s far from a stationary spot-up shooter.

    33. njasdjdh

      ruruland: great post. Look at how Melo has played on Team USA. Question why his assisted basket rate was high early onion his career? Choice or necessity or perceived necessity?

      Melo taking long (often contested 2s) is a bad thing because they are low-value shots. Their low value aside, he’s actually kind of decent/good at them. Unfortunately, Melo is an inconsistent (at best) 3 point shooter because his range doesn’t quite go that far yet. And somehow, when playing international competition where the 3 point line is shorter, Melo’s ability to nail 3s somehow gets better. Hmmmmmmmmm. Wonder why that is…

    34. d-mar

      massive:
      THE WAGES OF WINS WEBSITE BELIEVES THE KNICKS WILL BE THE 2ND BEST TEAM IN THE CONFERENCE AND THAT CARMELO ANTHONY WILL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING THIS YEAR’S MV FREAKING P.

      I bet you never thought you would read that about the Carmelo Anthony led Knicks lol. Read it for yourself. Some of it came off as ridiculous, but hey. I’ll take it.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/09/the-scientific-nba-rankings-1-to-180-30-to-16-to-1-and-an-early-preview/

      Somewhere THCJ is screaming “NOOOOOOOOO. this can’t be!” and sending angry emails (texts?) to Berri.

    35. thenamestsam

      ruruland: Not necessarily true. He ran a lot of PnR last season. He’s not a great penetrator but he’s far from a stationary spot-up shooter.

      83% of his shot attempts were 3s. 28 FTA all year. Yeah, “Not a great penetrator”. I’ll say. Hollinger scouting report: “Shoots spot-up 3s but is a non-factor in the half-court offense”. You sure you didn’t actually throw on a JKidd video from 5 years ago?

    36. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      d-mar: Somewhere THCJ is screaming “NOOOOOOOOO. this can’t be!” and sending angry emails (texts?) to Berri.

      “If” they stay healthy. My guess is that Kidd, Brewer, and Camby won’t get enough minutes to offset the mediocrity of J.R. Smith and Amar’e Stoudemire, hence my 48 win prediction.

    37. Brian Cronin

      The Melo for MVP comment was not them saying he’ll be the MVP but rather that he’ll get the credit for the Knicks’ improvement and thus win the actual award, which I think does seem like a strong likelihood, like how Amar’e got all of the credit for the early turnaround a couple of years ago (even with the team barely finishing over .500, he still finished in the top ten).

      It is actually fascinating that Melo has never finished in the top five of MVP voting and only cracked the top ten once. This will likely be his year to at least crack the top five.

      I really don’t get how anyone could view this Knicks team and think that they don’t have a decent chance of finishing second. There is just waaaaaaaay too many question marks with all of the other good Eastern teams that I don’t see how anyone could reasonably look at the Knicks and say, “Yeah, there’s no way you can’t be #2.”

      It doesn’t mean that they will be #2, but it is surprising to me to see such resistance to the idea that they have a good chance at finishing second from the mainstream media.

    38. ruruland

      thenamestsam: 83% of his shot attempts were 3s. 28 FTA all year. Yeah, “Not a great penetrator”. I’ll say. Hollinger scouting report: “Shoots spot-up 3s but is a non-factor in the half-court offense”. You sure you didn’t actually throw on a JKidd video from 5 years ago?

      Meh, you’ll see what I mean soon enough.

      Hollinger is likely to talking about Kidd’s directstatitistical contribution to the offense. The Mavericks weren’t playing him tons of minutes the last two years because of his defense, they weren’t excited to bring him back at the age of 40 because of his 3pt shooting.

      He does so many great things for an offense. You can only get so many assists playing hot potato on the 3pt line.

      You’ll see and we can talk then.

    39. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: “If” they stay healthy. My guess is that Kidd, Brewer, and Camby won’t get enough minutes to offset the mediocrity of J.R. Smith and Amar’e Stoudemire, hence my 48 win prediction.

      TS prediction for those two

    40. ruruland

      njasdjdh: Melo taking long (often contested 2s) is a bad thing because they are low-value shots. Their low value aside, he’s actually kind of decent/good at them. Unfortunately, Melo is an inconsistent (at best) 3 point shooter because his range doesn’t quite go that far yet. And somehow, when playing international competition where the 3 point line is shorter, Melo’s ability to nail 3s somehow gets better. Hmmmmmmmmm. Wonder why that is…

      You see where some those 3s he made came from?

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAKg0Awz3E

      Still shot them at higher percentage than he does from normal in mid-range — they were all assisted attempts.

      His spot-up 3 % the last 3 years is pretty good. More of those, less off-dribble 3s, his percentage should naturally rise.

    41. jon abbey

      Jesus, that’s a stupid ranking list of players, Kawhi Leonard and Faried are each like 100+ spots ahead of Russell Westbrook, to name just one hysterical example (Landry Fields ahead of Kyrie Irving is another entertaining one).

      I’m pretty sure Wages of Wins is an elaborate social experiment to see if people will believe any type of gibberish if the formulators stick to it long enough. I eagerly await the eventual “gotcha!” piece, maybe in The Atlantic or Harper’s.

    42. Juany8

      jon abbey:
      Jesus, that’s a stupid ranking list of players, Kawhi Leonard and Faried are each like 100+ spots ahead of Russell Westbrook, to name just one hysterical example (Landry Fields ahead of Kyrie Irving is another entertaining one).

      I’m pretty sure Wages of Wins is an elaborate social experiment to see if people will believe any type of gibberish if the formulators stick to it long enough. I eagerly await the eventual “gotcha!” piece, maybe in The Atlantic or Harper’s.

      I’ve been wondering about this too, there’s no way any serious researcher would keep defending WP the way Berri does, yet he insists the Nuggets are suddenly a top 3 team now that they traded a solid role player in Afflalo and an underrated Harrington (he at least wasn’t a net negative last year) for a super role player in Iguodala. If they had some solid interior defense they would be intriguing, but of course WP superstar Kenneth Faried will continue to kill them on that end. Their only hope is Javale McGee becoming a legit star. Good luck Nuggets

    43. Juany8

      massive:
      THE WAGES OF WINS WEBSITE BELIEVES THE KNICKS WILL BE THE 2ND BEST TEAM IN THE CONFERENCE AND THAT CARMELO ANTHONY WILL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING THIS YEAR’S MV FREAKING P.

      I bet you never thought you would read that about the Carmelo Anthony led Knicks lol. Read it for yourself. Some of it came off as ridiculous, but hey. I’ll take it.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/09/the-scientific-nba-rankings-1-to-180-30-to-16-to-1-and-an-early-preview/

      Best part of this article: Apparently if Bargniani and Brook Lopez go down with season ending injuries tomorrow, the Raptors and Nets will become contenders. Might be the most stupefying thing I’ve ever read about basketball

    44. thenamestsam

      ruruland: Meh, you’ll see what I mean soon enough.

      Hollinger is likely to talking about Kidd’s directstatitistical contribution to the offense. The Mavericks weren’t playing him tons of minutes the last two years because of his defense, they weren’t excited to bring him back at the age of 40 because of his 3pt shooting.

      He does so many great things for an offense. You can only get so many assists playing hot potato on the 3pt line.

      You’ll see and we can talk then.

      Right dude. You spout some bullshit, I come back with statistical and scouting evidence, and your response is “You’ll see”. You’re not the only one who watches basketball. Step off with your condescending bullshit.

    45. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey:
      I’m pretty sure Wages of Wins is an elaborate social experiment to see if people will believe any type of gibberish if the formulators stick to it long enough. I eagerly await the eventual “gotcha!” piece, maybe in The Atlantic or Harper’s.

      You’re right. There’s no way that a guy with a .618 TS% on 18.7 USG% who averaged 4.9 ORB/36 could be better than Russell “.538 TS%” Westbrook. Do you know what Westbrook is good at? Taking shots and turning the ball over.

      But no, you’re right, abbey: no way Faried’s better than that. I trust your eyes to make a quality judgment.

    46. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: I’ve been wondering about this too, there’s no way any serious researcher would keep defending WP the way Berri does, yet he insists the Nuggets are suddenly a top 3 team now that they traded a solid role player in Afflalo and an underrated Harrington (he at least wasn’t a net negative last year) for a super role player in Iguodala. If they had some solid interior defense they would be intriguing, but of course WP superstar Kenneth Faried will continue to kill them on that end. Their only hope is Javale McGee becoming a legit star. Good luck Nuggets

      I’m through arguing with you, too: you tell me that any box score statistic can be thrown out the window and you post WS48 numbers in the very same thread to make some claim that fits more with the abbey/ruruland POV.

      Your assessment of Harrington and Iguodala is backed up by nothing but your own presumed expertise. To my eyes, worthless.

    47. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m through arguing with you, too: you tell me that any box score statistic can be thrown out the window and you post WS48 numbers in the very same thread to make some claim that fits more with the abbey/ruruland POV.

      Your assessment of Harrington and Iguodala is backed up by nothing but your own presumed expertise. To my eyes, worthless.

      Good, I’m pretty happy my worldview doesn’t agree with yours, you ignore all my real arguments in favor of insulting any perceived mistake on my part anyways. Maybe if you actually addressed any of the arguments I make against WP we could have a serious discussion about it, no matter how many times you attack me personally it won’t fix your precious little stat.

      As far as this whole “expertise” thing you care so much about, there is not a single scientific analysis in the history of mankind that did not involve a high level of expertise on the subject. That expertise isn’t gained by making up fancy numerical models, it’s gained through observation and experience. Even when scientists get to numerical models, they don’t do something as laughably simple as using a linear regression on a bunch of entirely unscientific data. Nor do they use personal attacks to try to defend their ideas against reasonable objections. Science doesn’t care about the ego of an economics professor

      It’s funny that it’s economics by the way, there’s a pseudo-science if there ever was one. I wonder if Berri called the 2008 market crash an outlier lol

    48. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: You’re right. There’s no way that a guy with a .618 TS% on 18.7 USG% who averaged 4.9 ORB/36 could be better than Russell “.538 TS%” Westbrook. Do you know what Westbrook is good at? Taking shots and turning the ball over.

      But no, you’re right, abbey: no way Faried’s better than that. I trust your eyes to make a quality judgment.

      I love that you refuse to acknowledge that Faried is one of the worst defensive players in the league.

    49. jon abbey

      honestly, if there was a player who never left the offensive end of the floor, never took a single shot, and just focused all their attention on rebounding, WoW would have article after article about how they’re better than Jordan or LeBron.

    50. iserp

      Hollinger is really high on the Nuggets too. But i am afraid he counts too much on Iguodala improving the defense for them. It should be easy to plan for the Nuggets and attack Faried / McGee, let’s see.

      THCJ, WP48 is a joke. It is hard to discuss with you if you don’t accept that it is a joke. Trying to determine from a single number the win totals added or taken is absolutely laughable, because it so far from the range of validity of a single number. It’s statistical significance is totally correlated to the stability of rosters. If you shuffled the teams from season to season, WP48 would fluctuate wildly. It has hailed bad players like Landry Fields to the point of stardom. It has so many question marks, that i don’t know why people don’t try to improve it.

      I mean, PER is bad. But Hollinger doesn’t try to justify everything from it; he uses it as a measure to compare players, usually on the offensive end, and usually too, he compares similar players. He acknowledges its limitations and would point out when PER is not working.

      Berri says thing with common sense: go for the high percentage shots, rebound, etc… That many times are forgotten in the view of a flashy highlight. But you can’t forget that some players can carry a team on his back, no matter their teammates. Role players are important, but they have a role… and struggle out of it, and have a hard time when the other team plans specifically against them. Stars can give you whatever your team needs (and obviously there are stars and fake stars, but let’s not act as if Lebron is the only star out there). Why teams don’t specifically plan against role players? because there usually another player who would take advantage of it, usually your ‘star’, because he is the one that adapts the most against opposing defenses.

      So Berri is right in many things, but tries to do too much with “common sense”. Basketball is more complex than that, and quantifying it with new variables would be…

    51. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: Good, I’m pretty hur precious little stat.

      As far as this whole “expertise” thing you care so much about, there is not a single scientific analysis in the history of mankind that did not involve a high level of expertise on the subject. That expertise isn’t gained by making up fancy numerical models, it’s gained through observation and experience. Even when scientists get to numerical models, they don’t do something as laughably simple as using a linear regression on a bunch of entirely unscientific data. Nor do they use personal attacks to try to defend their ideas against reasonable objections. Science doesn’t care about the ego of an economics professor

      It’s funny that it’s economics by the way, there’s a pseudo-science if there ever was one. I wonder if Berri called the 2008 market crash an outlier lol

      How can you even compare macroeconomics to microeconomics? They deal with two completely different types of systems. That you would compare the market crash to NBA basketball is beyond me.

      Yes, you’re right. Scientists begin with observation. But when a model is created and a hypothesis is tested, good scientists don’t say, “Well, the model is valid and our methodology is sound, but the conclusion is not what we expected. Back to the drawing board!” That’s pseudo-science. That’s using experiment and analysis to justify one’s own preestablished beliefs. WP48 advocates do not claim that the box score is infallible. But they do claim that there are trends in box scores that allow us to weigh certain recorded outcomes in a way that correlates strongly with wins over a large period of time. I’m not about to dismiss that precision because you claim (macro)economics to be a pseudoscience.

    52. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      iserp:

      THCJ, WP48 is a joke. It is hard to discuss with you if you don’t accept that it is a joke. Trying to determine from a single number the win totals added or taken is absolutely laughable, because it so far from the range of validity of a single number. It’s statistical significance is totally correlated to the stability of rosters. If you shuffled the teams from season to season, WP48 would fluctuate wildly. It has hailed bad players like Landry Fields to the point of stardom. It has so many question marks, that i don’t know why people don’t try to improve it.

      I mean, PER is bad. But Hollinger doesn’t try to justify everything from it; he uses it as a measure to compare players, usually on the offensive end, and usually too, he compares similar players. He acknowledges its limitations and would point out when PER is not working.

      This is a ridiculous argument. While WP48 has limitations and does not account for defense in a way that seems helpful, the PoP ratings correlate EXTREMELY well with individual wins and the WP numbers correlate similarly well over the course of the last thirty years.

      Your skepticism does not invalidate the model.

    53. njasdjdh

      jon abbey: I love that you refuse to acknowledge that Faried is one of the worst defensive players in the league.

      I think Russell Westbrook is a better player than Kenneth Faried. That said, this is a weird point to make because Westbrook is not a good defender.

    54. ruruland

      thenamestsam: Right dude. You spout some bullshit, I come back with statistical and scouting evidence, and your response is “You’ll see”. You’re not the only one who watches basketball. Step off with your condescending bullshit.

      not trying to be condescending at all. Nice job with Hollinger stats. We both know Kidd is not a big time penetrator in the traditional way at this point. But to say he’s a non-factor on offense?

    55. njasdjdh

      ruruland: stsa

      The quote was that he’s a non-factor in the half-court offense, which is different than being a non-factor on offense. I know you like to turn around what people said in an effort to further your agenda, since you already did it to me in this thread, but try to be honest.

    56. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is a ridiculous argument. While WP48 has limitations and does not account for defense in a way that seems helpful, the PoP ratings correlate EXTREMELY well with individual wins and the WP numbers correlate similarly well over the course of the last thirty years.

      Your skepticism does not invalidate the model.

      It does correlate, but there are more sources of correlation than being a good model. And that model is swarmed by static points (players who don’t change teams / systems). If you want to check the stability of the model, you should allow for more freedom. But coaches usually just use their players in the way they think they are most suited.

      So the subjective view of coaches biases the results of your fits. Are they right? I don’t know, but most of them don’t take role players and give them much more responsibility (read %USG). And only they do that when they see that it doesn’t affect other areas. So, %TS and %USG aren’t tied one to the other because basketball is that way, or because coaches only let outlier players to make a shift in %USG?

      So, in WP48, you are including the subjectivity of coaches; and so, fails to account for system / player roles / coaching changes.

    57. thenamestsam

      ruruland: not trying to be condescending at all. Nice job with Hollinger stats. We both know Kidd is not a big time penetrator in the traditional way at this point. But to say he’s a non-factor on offense?

      If you’re not trying then you’re bad at not sounding condescending. The majority of your posts sound like you think you’re a professor talking to his students, but getting back to the topic at hand:

      The original discussion was not whether he’s a non-factor on offense, or in half-court. I said that he was the farthest thing from a Dantoni style PG. You responded:

      ruruland: Not necessarily true. He ran a lot of PnR last season. He’s not a great penetrator but he’s far from a stationary spot-up shooter.

      My point is that you’re giving him far too much credit with this: “We both know Kidd is not a big time penetrator in the traditional way at this point.” The only players in the league who had a higher percentage of their shots as 3s were Novak and Deshawn Stevenson. The other guys rounding out the top 5? Daequan Cook and James Jones. He took 28 fta all year and had 10 (10!!!) shots at the rim. That’s almost 50 games, 30 minutes a game. 10 shots at the rim. One every 5 games. Can he still pass the rock? Absolutely. But if you’re still arguing that he’s capable of playing the Dantoni PG role you are out of your freaking mind.

    58. ruruland

      njasdjdh: The quote was that he’s a non-factor in the half-court offense, which is different than being a non-factor on offense. I know you like to turn around what people said in an effort to further your agenda, since you already did it to me in this thread, but try to be honest.

      My personal agenda? Lol, being a Knicks fan.

      Let me ask both of you guys this question.

      Somehow you acknowledge that Jason Kidd has value in the “full-court”, yet you (presumably) both believe Kidd is a “non-factor” in the half court because he can’t move, correct?

      If he can’t move, why is he good in the full court?

      (hoping Socratic method comes off less caustic)

    59. ruruland

      Stsam: Good post, but no, I definitely don’t believe he can play full-time MDA pnr.

      Youre right on about his shot attempts. He can’t finish anymore and rarely tries. But he moves ALOT in the offense . All over the place to help keep the offense working. He also penetrates to find shooters a lot more then quite a few pgs in the league. He doesn’t use PnR to score unless he has to, and he doesn’t use it much above 3pt line, but he uses it and still very effective in it.

    60. thenamestsam

      ruruland:
      Stsam: Good post, but no, I definitely don’t believe he can play full-time MDA pnr.

      Youre right on about his shot attempts. He can’t finish anymore and rarely tries. But he moves ALOT in the offense . All over the place to help keep the offense working. He also penetrates to find shooters a lot more then quite a few pgs in the league. He doesn’t use PnR to score unless he has to, and he doesn’t use it much above 3pt line, but he uses it and still very effective in it.

      Okay, I think we mostly agree then. I don’t think he’s useless in half court O, just quoted Hollinger as part of trying to make my initial point. I agree with you that he’s valuable keeping an offense moving. I just think if Woodson really wants to run Dantoni concepts he’s going to have to do it primarily with someone other than Kidd at the point. I think Kidd can still do a lot of the things he does well playing primarily off the ball. His instincts for finding pockets of space, for quickly choosing and throwing the right pass to keep the ball moving, and his ability to knock down open jumpers will all serve him well on the weak side while Felton and Amare/Chandler run PnR.

    61. Juany8

      THCJ, I called economics a pseudo-science period, I don’t care what it’s specifically referring to. As to the rest of your argument, do I really need to go beyond correlation does not imply causation?

      Put it this way, rebounds might correlate with wins, but that’s in large because they are correlated with defense. An elite defensive team will cause more misses, creating more rebound opportunities. This means part of the high team correlation with wins and rebounds is because there is a high correlation between defense and wins.

      On an individual level, it means that the player causing the other team to miss is just as important as the player collecting the rebound. WP, however, doesn’t adjust for individual defense in any way, which means the player getting the rebound is also getting some credit for the miss (the whole team gets credit at once) This means that players like Faried or Love, who are terrible defenders, get the same credit as someone like Dwight Howard, someone who gets stops and rebounds in the same possession. By not accounting for defense at an individual level, you are giving terrible defenders credit for the good defensive play of others. That’s why it’s not the same when Faried and Chandler put up a similar TS% and Rebounds per minute. Chandler is dominating the defensive end, Faried is screwing his team over, and they both get the same rating lol

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