ruruland:
You can’t undervalue penetration

My new favorite line…

http://i44.tinypic.com/1he1cx.png

limpidgimp:

Like TOs, the assist stat also flattens context. Rondo is averaging 10 assists per game. Not to take anything from his great PG skills, but he gets the benefit of more assists from straightforward spot up and shoot baskets. The way assists are counted, I think most baskets that go in within two dribbles are considered assisted, even if the passer didn’t do much to set up the play. (And even if the shooter relied heavily on his own abilities within the two dribbles to score, such as doing a head fake, fade away, side step, etc.)

I’ve seen so much variation in how scorekeepers tally assists I have no idea if they’re actually following any guidelines or not.

I agree on the idea with Lin. But I must say that there’s big difference between how the two players drive. Lin drives to score. Rondo drives to probe and kick, which makes his scoring easier. I truly believe Lin will learn this as well. If he can improve his ballhandling, he’ll learn to bring the ball back out to the midrange area after his original foray in. The defense typically isn’t going to rotate back out to shooters once they’ve collapsed, and Lin will have an open shot, too.

You can’t undervalue penetration, and it’s true that a lot of Lin’s turnovers come from passes into congestion. But they also result from a hesitancy to pass to the opening when the defense initially collapses, instead Lin moves to get all the way to the rim and THEN finds himself in trouble without a passing lane.

limpidgimp: You’re referring to what they’ve gotten Chandler doing recently right?

YEah, something the previous coach, unwilling to break out of his very limited comfort zone, would have tried.

Bruno Almeida:

no one saw him as the most efficient scorer in the league, but he had a .598 TS% last year, which is much better than any Carmelo season, so all indications were there.

That wasn’t the argument. I proposed that Melo would have a higher TS% from the all-star break forward, not that Melo would finish with a higher TS% overal.

it’s an important distinction, and I had many well-founded reasons for thinking so. I figured Harden would play around that .600 level moving forward. it implictly acknowledged the third year jump because even at the 600 level post AS break, we’re looking at a sginficant third year jump with his pre-AS break numbers.

My Melo argument was based on a number of factors, none of which has come to fruition yet, but nonetheless, the same factors I believe will allow Melo to have his most efficient offensive seasons surrounded by this personnel and combinations of talent.

I still think the floor needs to be better spread, but that this personnel has the ability to eventually do that.

Playing alongside a screen-setter like Chandler, a mid-range shooter like Amar’e, and most importantly a driving pnr point guard — in an up-tempo system—will eventually allow Melo to play his best ball ever.

the myriad factors playing into his severe underperformance are those that likely won’t remain or be repeated moving into the future.

We’ve seen Melo have an 100 game stretch with a TS in the 575 range. Certain conditions allowed him to shoot at that level– namely a pass-first pg. I think Lin can still become that player, and everything else around him is more conducive to those higher efficiency numbers. I could go on, but I’d rather not dive back into those things at the current time.

If Owen truly saw Harden as a 620+ TS guy, well, I take my hat off to him. But I don’t remember seeing…

ruruland: Unfortunately, defenses don’t like to give up layups, especially to teams that can’t shoot 3s.

The only way you’re going to get Tyson to score efficiently is by penetration… period.

Chandler scores because he gets spoonfed dunks and attacks the board for putbacks.

Announcers and articles have pointed to Chandler’s high FG%/TS%/eFG%, which is the highest in the league but it’s a pretty flimsy stat since Chandler is getting, as you say, ‘spoonfed.’ That’s not to take anything away from him, but just to say that stat is more an indicator of guard play and running more PnR than the “efficiency” of Chandler’s scoring per se.

Lazy stat-citing sports writers also pay too much attention to Lin’s TO count. It’s now a truism that he is a good player but turns the ball over too much. There’s so much context ignored by the TO stat. Lin still makes bad decisions/executions as a passer but, as another poster mentioned, the kinds of turnovers he commits have changed. Less of the kind that leads to easy transition baskets, leaving more that are the result of trying to get the ball to someone in the paint. The kind of turnovers that, while not resulting in points, are related to successful penetration, which in the game as a whole leads to many positives for offense.

Like TOs, the assist stat also flattens context. Rondo is averaging 10 assists per game. Not to take anything from his great PG skills, but he gets the benefit of more assists from straightforward spot up and shoot baskets. The way assists are counted, I think most baskets that go in within two dribbles are considered assisted, even if the passer didn’t do much to set up the play. (And even if the shooter relied heavily on his own abilities within the two dribbles to score, such as doing a head fake, fade away, side step, etc.)

ruruland: One place I really like seeing Chandler at time is in the mid-post or on the elbow feeding Melo in the low post… That’s a really effective high low if Melo is playing the 4 because Chandler effectively clears the paint out…

You’re referring to what they’ve gotten Chandler doing recently right?

ruruland: Really, that’s the only reason you jumped into the thread? interesting.

No one could have expected James Harden to be the most efficient scorer in the NBA this year. So, I’m not sure what point you’re trying to prove.

no, it’s not the only reason, I’ve been out all day long and just saw that line, and remembered the silly discussion about how Melo would have a better TS% than Harden by the end of the season.

no one saw him as the most efficient scorer in the league, but he had a .598 TS% last year, which is much better than any Carmelo season, so all indications were there.

I’m not trying to prove any point here, chill out man… just commenting on that, everyone makes bad predictions once in a while.

Z: Haha. yeah, Jon has turned his sights on others… (also, Ruru’s imported optimism has made your “we’re going to sweep the celtics in the first round” prediction seem merely cautiously optimistic :)

I don’t think even I said we were going to sweep them lol. I’m not 100% on that but I don’t think I said sweep lol.