Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Jul 16 2013)

  • [New York Post] Knicks sign World Peace to 2-year deal (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:51:04 -0500)
    LAS VEGAS — Metta World Peace wanted the challenge next season of breaking a 41-year championship drought, wanted the Big Apple, wanted to retire a Knick.
    The former Ron Artest is coming home.
    World Peace agreed to become a Knick yesterday in Las Vegas, agreeing to terms on a two-year deal…

  • [New York Post] J.R. could miss start of season after knee surgery (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:13:32 -0500)
    LAS VEGAS — On the day the Knicks added Metta World Peace, they lost J.R. Smith — possibly for all of training camp and the first two weeks of the regular season.
    Four days after announcing his new four-year, $24.7 million package, Smith underwent surgery yesterday in New York to…

  • [New York Post] Leslie will learn from new mentor (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 01:12:58 -0500)
    LAS VEGAS — Knicks rookie combo forward C.J. Leslie believes the addition of Metta World Peace will help his transition. Leslie scored 15 points — 6-of-15 from the field — in yesterday’s 84-71 summer-league loss to the Bobcats.Leslie, who fell out of the draft in a stunner, plays roughly the…

  • [New York Newsday] Knicks, World Peace agree to deal (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:16:16 EDT)
    Metta World Peace is coming home.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Agent: Tyler might have shot with Knicks (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:03:33 EDT)
    LAS VEGAS — After three games in the NBA summer league, center Jeremy Tyler has emerged as a compelling candidate to secure one of the Knicks’ four remaining roster spots.Gabe Giordano, the agent for Tyler, who’s averaging close to a double-double, told ESPNNewYork.com that he envisions a future for his client on the Knicks.”While there have been no formal negotiations with the Knicks to this point, there is every indication that the Knicks would like to have Jeremy in training camp,” Giordano said.

  • [New York Times] Operation Could Delay Season for Knicks’ Smith (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 04:32:48 GMT)
    The Knicks’ J. R. Smith, the league’s Sixth Man Award winner, had knee surgery on Monday and could miss the start of the N.B.A. season.    

  • [New York Times] Metta World Peace Finds His Way Back Home (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 02:30:20 GMT)
    Metta World Peace confirmed Monday on the MSG Network, during a Knicks summer league game, that he had agreed to a two-year deal with the team.    

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks’ J.R. out 3-4 months after undergoing knee surgery (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 06:05:37 GMT)
    The Knicks suffered a devastating blow on Tuesday when the club announced that J.R. Smith could miss four months after having patellar tendon surgery and an arthroscopy for a tear in the lateral meniscus of his left knee.    

  • [New York Daily News] World Peace comes to N.Y.: Metta joins Knicks (Tue, 16 Jul 2013 06:05:26 GMT)
    Metta World Peace agreed to a two-year deal with the Knicks, 14 years after the club passed him over in the NBA draft.    

  • 217 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Jul 16 2013)

    1. Hubert

      Man, I made the mistake of taking a cab to work this morning that had Mike & Mike on the radio.

      They discussed the MWP signing like a cute little homecoming “that ultimately will have no bearing on anything that matters next year because, let’s be honest, the Knicks were the 5th best team in the East next year without him, and they’re the 5th best team in the East next year with him.”

      Now, I’ve raged against this a lot and I will spare anyone having to read it again. I just have one question:

      Can anyone remember a competitive 6 game series that ever scored a more decisive victory in the court of public opinion?

      When in the history of basketball has losing a 6 game series with your two best players nursing injuries meant you can never, ever, ever finish ahead of that team in the regular season the following year?

      My god, the stupidity.

    2. er

      Hubert:
      Man, I made the mistake of taking a cab to work this morning that had Mike & Mike on the radio.

      They discussed the MWP signing like a cute little homecoming “that ultimately will have no bearing on anything that matters next year because, let’s be honest, the Knicks were the 5th best team in the East next year without him, and they’re the 5th best team in the East next year with him.”

      Now, I’ve raged against this a lot and I will spare anyone having to read it again.I just have one question:

      Can anyone remember a competitive 6 game series that ever scored a more decisive victory in the court of public opinion?

      When in the history of basketball has losing a 6 game series with your two best players nursing injuries meant you can never, ever, ever finish ahead of that team in the regular season the following year?

      My god, the stupidity.

      lol i hear ya, but ive tuned it out

    3. DRed

      Hubert:
      Man, I made the mistake of taking a cab to work this morning that had Mike & Mike on the radio.

      They discussed the MWP signing like a cute little homecoming “that ultimately will have no bearing on anything that matters next year because, let’s be honest, the Knicks were the 5th best team in the East next year without him, and they’re the 5th best team in the East next year with him.”

      Now, I’ve raged against this a lot and I will spare anyone having to read it again.I just have one question:

      Can anyone remember a competitive 6 game series that ever scored a more decisive victory in the court of public opinion?

      When in the history of basketball has losing a 6 game series with your two best players nursing injuries meant you can never, ever, ever finish ahead of that team in the regular season the following year?

      My god, the stupidity.

      Come on, man. Be realistic. Over the series the Pacers outscored us 537 to 537. That’s a pretty substantial beating.

    4. Hubert

      DRed: Come on, man.Be realistic.Over the series the Pacers outscored us 537 to 537.That’s a pretty substantial beating.

      Enough to warrant overlooking the fact that we finished 4.5 games ahead of them last year.

      Honestly, short of winning a championship next year, I want nothing more than a second crack at Indiana.

    5. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      DRed:
      “But purely from ability perspective Knicks are in th3 top 3-4 teams imo.”

      Believing the Knicks are one of the top 3-4 teams in ability is about as realistic as believing aliens have been landing in Zimbabwe.

      Perfect analogy. Judging from his nonsense about paradigms of truth and media censorship, ruruland believes both!

      I can’t believe people take him seriously.

    6. Hubert

      Brian Cronin: The Knicks have been in salary cap hell from before the salary cap even existed, so this will only be the second time ever that the Knicks had significant cap room during an offseason (2009 being the first one, of course). 1996 was the closest, where they cleared enough cap space to be able to sign Houston and Childs, but obviously that was nowhere near the room they had in 2009 or what they will have in 2015 (provided, of course, that Melo stays true to his…uhmmm…I don’t want to say “word” since he hasn’t actually promised anything…how about his “implied intentions” and doesn’t opt out this coming offseason).

      Most of us here keep assuming we have this plan to be players in free agency in 2015.

      Based on track record, I say it’s 60/40 that this time next year we’ve forfeited that cap space. That we’re here talking about how we flipped Amar’e and/or AB’s expiring contracts to bring in some other flawed, overpriced players on longer deals because we’re in “win now” mode, and because Melo applied some pressure to the organization with his opt out.

      To deny that is more likely is to deny a mountain of historical evidence staring you in the face.

    7. Juany8

      Man if some people on this board were Miami fans, they’d be bitching about how Riley bombed the number 2 pick in the draft and that they could have 4 all NBA players on that team. Ruruland can be exhausting with his ability to spin literally anything that happens into a positive, but at least he makes you feel hopeful and puts forth some interesting observations.

      I just read a post from a previous thread bitching about how we always overpay for players in free agency while ignoring that last year the problem was refusing to pay for the outgoing players (fields and Lin, both smart moves) or complaining about a late first round pick when the average return for a pick that late is a non rotation player. It’s not ideal sure, but it doesn’t change almost anything long term. People bitch about how we never pick up young players with upside, ignoring that Lin, Novak, and copeland came out of nowhere to be valuable, and that shump is starting to look awesome. Then they bitch about signing CJ Leslie because they don’t like his current level of play.

      People still complain about Melo and ignore that deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Dwight Howard have won their new teams a combined 1 playoff series since they were traded to new teams. Denver has won zero series, and is now looking at a shell of last year’s team. Or that Tyson chandler and Amare stoudemire have played about 2 healthy playoff games since they arrived combined.

      Knicks have done nothing but improve on the team they had in the playoffs this offseason (assuming Martin returns of course), getting rid of useless players (cope wasn’t, but he didnt play much) and hopefully getting their top players healthy for next season. It’s not that awful to root for a team with a good chance of winning in the mid 50′s and making the ECF, where even a little bit of injury or shooting luck can lead to an unexpected finals appearance. And they can even blow it up if it fails.

    8. MeloDrama

      NY could finish anywhere in the East standings and it wouldn’t shock me. Lot of potential for guys being injured, but a lot of talent as well to mixand match with. Woodson did a very good job of that last REGULAR SEASON ;) so I wouldn’t lose hope, at least with anything short of a Ty Chandler injury.

    9. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: Knicks have done nothing but improve on the team they had in the playoffs this offseason (assuming Martin returns of course), getting rid of useless players (cope wasn’t, but he didnt play much) and hopefully getting their top players healthy for next season. It’s not that awful to root for a team with a good chance of winning in the mid 50?s and making the ECF, where even a little bit of injury or shooting luck can lead to an unexpected finals appearance. And they can even blow it up if it fails.

      Definitely not winning mid-50s this year. Not a chance.

    10. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Definitely not winning mid-50s this year. Not a chance.

      Well THCJ has declared the Knicks dead, since he had such wild success saying the nuggets would be contenders in the west last year, I guess we can all stop watching now and accept that this team might not even make the top 5 in the east. If only we hadn’t traded Ronnie brewer….

    11. johnno

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Believing the Knicks are one of the top 3-4 teams in ability is about as realistic as believing aliens have been landing in Zimbabwe.

      The aliens have not been landing in Zimbabwe. According to Baron Davis, they are landing somewhere next to the highway that runs from LA to Vegas.
      By the way, for anyone who doesn’t realize it, it is a 100% certainty that Derrick Rose and Danny Granger are going to come back from catastrophic injuries and vault their teams into the Eastern Conference Finals next year, just as it is a 100% certainty that the Knicks are totally screwed because of JR’s injury.

    12. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: Well THCJ has declared the Knicks dead, since he had such wild success saying the nuggets would be contenders in the west last year, I guess we can all stop watching now and accept that this team might not even make the top 5 in the east. If only we hadn’t traded Ronnie brewer….

      George Karl sunk that team. Nothing to do with the players.

    13. johnno

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Definitely not winning mid-50s this year. Not a chance.

      See, the Knicks’ problem is that their “best” player is a high volume, low efficiency player who plays no defense and does nothing to make his team better. They will never be a winning team until they unload him. What? They were 47-18 last year with him in the lineup and 7-10 without him? Stop bothering me with facts! I know that he stinks and, if I keep repeating it, maybe some of you dopes will start to realize that it’s true!

    14. mokers

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: George Karl sunk that team. Nothing to do with the players.

      Would you say it was possible that George Karl may have also been responsible for sinking other teams during his Nuggets tenure? What is the statistical method we use to define how a coach has sunk a team?

    15. d-mar

      @7 Thank you, Juany8, for putting it all in perspective. Winning a championship in the NBA is so goddamn difficult, more than in any other sport by far. Not having one since 1973 sucks big time, but look at Boston, they have exactly one title since those storied 80′s teams, and no one would ever criticize their front office. We won 54 games last year and lost in the 2nd round with a less than 100% healthy team. And we’re probably a better team this year. Really, what’s there to complain about?

    16. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: George Karl sunk that team. Nothing to do with the players.

      So you’re saying that your prediction method can’t take into account a factor which has the capability to sink a team? A factor which was in no way a surprise given that George Karl had been there for 8 seasons and flopped in the playoffs consistently? Doesn’t that just make you a shitty predictor (which is exactly what Juany was pointing out)?

    17. Hubert

      Juany8:
      Man if some people on this board were Miami fans, they’d be bitching about how Riley bombed the number 2 pick in the draft and that they could have 4 all NBA players on that team.

      I just read a post from a previous thread bitching about how we always overpay for players in free agency while ignoring that last year the problem was refusing to pay for the outgoing players (fields and Lin, both smart moves) or complaining about a late first round pick when the average return for a pick that late is a non rotation player.

      what a curious point to make. we follow a team that isn’t favored to make it out of the second round (actually they’re probably not favored to make the second round, even though I think that’s foolish, but that is the reality), and from time to time we lament the flawed decision-making process that led to the construction of such a limited team. you equate that to whining about a wasted draft pick after winning back to back titles?

      i’d like to think we win two titles in a row, we’d be discussing running through the streets of NYC drunk and crazy for 4 straight weeks. you act as if we’re spitting on the mona lisa here.

    18. Hubert

      “and from time to time we lament the flawed decision-making process that led to the construction of such a limited team”

      and considering we watched that process repeat itself twice this offseason, it seemed like an appropriate time to bring it up.

      also, what is this late first round pick you speak of? Are you referring to the 2016 1st round pick? I love how everyone is assuming this pick is going to be #26 in a weak draft. It could easily be the 18th pick in the draft, which we used to draft Iman Shumpert 2 years ago. Mid round picks are very valuable.

    19. Juany8

      Hubert: what a curious point to make.we follow a team that isn’t favored to make it out of the second round (actually they’re probably not favored to make the second round, even though I think that’s foolish, but that is the reality), and from time to time we lament the flawed decision-making process that led to the construction of such a limited team. you equate that to whining about a wasted draft pick after winning back to back titles?

      i’d like to think we win two titles in a row, we’d be discussing running through the streets of NYC drunk and crazy for 4 straight weeks.you act as if we’re spitting on the mona lisa here.

      Actually I don’t mean you Hubert, you’ve been critical of some moves but that’s to be expected. I’m talking about guys like bobneptune and dogrufus, who have literally nothing to say but talking shit about everything this team does. There’s a big difference between being objective and being pessimistic, the Knicks haven’t aced every move they’ve made, but I think it’s fair to say that neither has any other team. In fact the clippers and grizzlies have bombed MAJOR moves recently, literally throwing away top 3 picks and overpaying players as much as anyone, and yet people act like trading a late pick for Bargs is a sign of how useless this team will always be.

      There’s a difference between lamenting a few less than optimal moves and guaranteeing that the Knicks are going to win 10 less games than last year.

    20. Hubert

      Juany8: Actually I don’t mean you Hubert, you’ve been critical of some moves but that’s to be expected. I’m talking about guys like bobneptune and dogrufus, who have literally nothing to say but talking shit about everything this team does. There’s a big difference between being objective and being pessimistic, the Knicks haven’t aced every move they’ve made, but I think it’s fair to say that neither has any other team. In fact the clippers and grizzlies have bombed MAJOR moves recently, literally throwing away top 3 picks and overpaying players as much as anyone, and yet people act like trading a late pick for Bargs is a sign of how useless this team will always be.

      There’s a difference between lamenting a few less than optimal moves and guaranteeing that the Knicks are going to win 10 less games than last year.

      Understood.

      For the most part I think I am rather optimistic…until game day when I become a schizophrenic disaster who can see the sky falling on top of him, that is…

      I tend to be less forgiving of the cracks in the process, though. Perhaps it’s because I work in finance, but overpaying on trades & signings really riles me up.

      On the one hand, I’m happy we didn’t lose JR for nothing, there is no upside in that. On the other, I think we overpaid, and I think those two final years will haunt us down the road.

    21. Degree_Absolute

      The Knicks are clearly a playoff team, which is not really something you could say about the majority of Knicks teams over the last decade. Will they finish in the top 5 in the East? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, this will be a legitimately interesting team to watch every night.

      World Peace gives us a versatile, passionate defender who contributes something on offense as well. Plus we got him on an extremely cheap deal for two years. Bargnani, when healthy, has shown a rare offensive tool-set for a seven-footer. He can create mismatch problems and, maybe as second or third option, his known flaws won’t be as much of an issue. Based on athletic ability alone, he is a defensive improvement over Novak.

      That said, if neither of these guys work out, Amare gets hurt again, and Chandler is ineffective, it is only two seasons before they are all off the books. It may be hard to fathom, but this is real progress for the Knicks as an organization. Clowns like Layden and Thomas never paid attention to the cap like GG has. While still remaining competitive, Knicks management actually created and planned an exit strategy. This, in my mind, is the most pleasant outcome of this off-season.

    22. chrisk06811

      Assuming K Mart resigns…..How do you figure our team reacts this year when KG starts rambling on about breakfast cereal? I’d think Artest / K mart will object to that much more than last yrs squad did.

    23. Juany8

      Hubert: Understood.

      For the most part I think I am rather optimistic…until game day when I become a schizophrenic disaster who can see the sky falling on top of him, that is…

      I tend to be less forgiving of the cracks in the process, though.Perhaps it’s because I work in finance, but overpaying on trades & signings really riles me up.

      On the one hand, I’m happy we didn’t lose JR for nothing, there is no upside in that.On the other, I think we overpaid, and I think those two final years will haunt us down the road.

      That’s a perfectly fair assessment, the Knicks certainly tend to overpay in trades and that adds up down the line. On the other hand, I’ve seen the opposite happen with the rockets, where everyone is treated a bit too much like an asset and they get kind of fed up and start demanding more. Happened with dragic and Lowry, and it seems to be happening with asik. I think there is some value in paying a bit more to keep a core happy. Loyalty works both ways of course, hard for a team to ask a player to give everything for the cause when you’re perfectly happy giving him up for the cause. Even harder to ask him to take a paycut that makes him an attractive asset, which means he’s more likely to get traded.

      I’m more bothered with the Knicks throwing away picks left and right while never signing their young guys to team friendly second years. It’s why Houston is paying the same for parsons that we are for World Peace. Copeland would have signed anything you put in front of him last year, it’s not like the roster spot is impossible to recover

    24. DRed

      Degree_Absolute:

      World Peace gives us a versatile, passionate defender who contributes something on offense as well.Plus we got him on an extremely cheap deal for two years.Bargnani, when healthy, has shown a rare offensive tool-set for a seven-footer.He can create mismatch problems and, maybe as second or third option, his known flaws won’t be as much of an issue.Based on athletic ability alone, he is a defensive improvement over Novak.

      Bargnani may very well have a rare offensive tool set for a seven footer, but what he doesn’t have is an effective one. He’s posted a TS% above league average for his position 0 times in the last 4 seasons. And he’s bad on defense and a historically terrible rebounder. Bargnani is about as bad of a basketball player as you’ll see in the NBA. If the plan is to blow it up and reload in 2 years, it’s a defensible trade, but it is very unlikely to make the Knicks better next season.

      I like the MWP pickup, at least in isolation. There’s some risk of significant decline, but he should be an effective player next year, and he’s a tremendous quote machine. The Knicks will probably make the playoffs, but unless a whole lot of things go right in a big way we’re not going to seriously contend for a title.

    25. Bruno Almeida

      Hubert: what a curious point to make.we follow a team that isn’t favored to make it out of the second round (actually they’re probably not favored to make the second round, even though I think that’s foolish, but that is the reality), and from time to time we lament the flawed decision-making process that led to the construction of such a limited team. you equate that to whining about a wasted draft pick after winning back to back titles?

      i’d like to think we win two titles in a row, we’d be discussing running through the streets of NYC drunk and crazy for 4 straight weeks.you act as if we’re spitting on the mona lisa here.

      that’s the point.

      Juany, Ruruland keep talking about this team like it’s a clear contender that just needs a couple of lucky breaks and complimentary pieces to win a title.

      the Knicks might win 54-55 this year, but does it really matter?

      the moves this team has made in the offseason have put this team closer to a title? at the same time that Brooklyn and Chicago will (possibly) be considerably better?

      it’s just a fact when you look at the other teams… the Knicks are a flawed team that has a eastern conference finals ceiling (with some lucky, i.e. Rose doesn’t return to his 2011 form), and has done pretty much nothing to address these flaws.

      ruruland can spin every Knicks piece of news into a positive however he wants, all I care is about the 2014 playoffs.

    26. Bruno Almeida

      d-mar:
      @7 Thank you, Juany8, for putting it all in perspective. Winning a championship in the NBA is so goddamn difficult, more than in any other sport by far. Not having one since 1973 sucks big time, but look at Boston, they have exactly one title since those storied 80?s teams, and no one would ever criticize their front office. We won 54 games last year and lost in the 2nd round with a less than 100% healthy team. And we’re probably a better team this year. Really, what’s there to complain about?

      less than 100% healthy team? this is seriously a pro-Knicks argument?

      Indiana missed Granger for the entire year, Chicago missed Rose, the 2011 MVP, Miami went through the whole playoffs with Wade and Bosh battling multiple injuries…

      injuries happen to everyone, we were even or better than all those teams in the injury criteria.

    27. Hubert

      I was just looking at the salary caps for 2015, when our supposed reset will take place.

      As it stands now (and this is taking into consideration the deals just signed), 20 out of 30 teams stand to have $40mm or more in cap space!

      I don’t think I can recall a situation like that. The new CBA is really changing things.

      Next year, there’s only 6.

    28. d-mar

      Bruno Almeida: less than 100% healthy team? this is seriously a pro-Knicks argument?

      Indiana missed Granger for the entire year, Chicago missed Rose, the 2011 MVP, Miami went through the whole playoffs with Wade and Bosh battling multiple injuries…

      injuries happen to everyone, we were even or better than all those teams in the injury criteria.

      Melo had a torn labrum, JR we now know had a pretty serious knee problem, Chandler’s weight was down 15 lbs. from some illness and Amare was coming back from knee debridement. Yes, I think that’s worse than not having the overrated Danny Grainger on Indiana.

    29. Frank O.

      I think the Knicks will win better than 50 games. I think their defense was good last year and will be even better this year. With MWP, Shump and Chandler pushing the team to play tougher on D this team will have the mental and physical toughness to go toe to toe with the Bulls, Heat and Pacers.
      The Knicks already have sound depth and they still have a few roster spots to fill.
      With Felton, Shump, Peace, Melo and Chandler starting, you have Amare, Bargnani, JR and Prigs as depth.

      People keep calling Melo a volume scorer, but he was a pretty efficient scorer last year. The Knicks starters are sound rebounders and defenders and you have three top of the line scorers off the bench.

      I don’t see how this is not an enviable position.
      With massive injury issues last year, the Knicks won better than 50 games. Will the Bulls be tougher? Sure. The Pacers made some pick ups and could be better as well. The Heat is the Heat. Honestly, the Nets are better, but KG and Pierce are in decline. AK is a good add as well.
      I still see the Knicks winning 50+. They will feast on the bottom half of the east and hold their own against the best. It is now a battle tested, playoff team with continuity. The greatest challenge will be Woodson’s management of substitutions and his in game management, which I think could have been better.
      I’m pretty excited to see this team run. I have a feeling Amare’s impact will be key, but I always feel that way.

    30. Juany8

      Bruno Almeida: less than 100% healthy team? this is seriously a pro-Knicks argument?

      Indiana missed Granger for the entire year, Chicago missed Rose, the 2011 MVP, Miami went through the whole playoffs with Wade and Bosh battling multiple injuries…

      injuries happen to everyone, we were even or better than all those teams in the injury criteria.

      Thanks for proving my point Bruno. If the only criteria you have for success is being a top 3 favorite for the title, then there are no set of moves this team could have possibly made that would have made you happy once Lebron went to Miami. That’s a fact. Knicks didnt get a lucky number 1 pick (Chicago), get 3 top 20 players to collude (Miami), get 3 top 20 players in the draft, all lower than they would go today (OKC) get 2 awesome bigs as throwaway trades (Memphis) get an awesome point guard because the commissioner vetoed a trade (Clippers).

      You need a ton of luck to win a championship or even contend for one, if every team had this kind of defeatist attitude about it’s prospects, Dallas would have hated dirk and Houston would have tanked instead of accumulated prospects. I’m perfectly happy rooting for a team that can win 54 games and be an outside threat to win a championship. If you’re not, you might as well go root for the heat, even the spurs were getting blown out of the playoffs just 3 years ago

    31. Hubert

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Definitely not winning mid-50s this year. Not a chance.

      I’m just curious, are you factoring in the league-wide tanking that will take place next year and likely lead to inflated records for the teams that are actually competing?

      I would say a normal 45 win team has a chance to win 48-50 games next year just based on the tanking alone.

    32. DRed

      d-mar: Melo had a torn labrum, JR we now know had a pretty serious knee problem, Chandler’s weight was down 15 lbs. from some illness and Amare was coming back from knee debridement. Yes, I think that’s worse than not having the overrated Danny Grainger on Indiana.

      All those injuries are great news for the Knicks because it means all those players will be better next year. Now if you’ll excuse me, I believe there is a UFO touching down on my lawn and I need to discuss floor spacing and shot creation with our visitor.

    33. Bruno Almeida

      Juany8: Thanks for proving my point Bruno. If the only criteria you have for success is being a top 3 favorite for the title, then there are no set of moves this team could have possibly made that would have made you happy once Lebron went to Miami. That’s a fact. Knicks didnt get a lucky number 1 pick (Chicago), get 3 top 20 players to collude (Miami), get 3 top 20 players in the draft, all lower than they would go today (OKC) get 2 awesome bigs as throwaway trades (Memphis) get an awesome point guard because the commissioner vetoed a trade (Clippers).

      You need a ton of luck to win a championship or even contend for one, if every team had this kind of defeatist attitude about it’s prospects, Dallas would have hated dirk and Houston would have tanked instead of accumulated prospects. I’m perfectly happy rooting for a team that can win 54 games and be an outside threat to win a championship. If you’re not, you might as well go root for the heat, even the spurs were getting blown out of the playoffs just 3 years ago

      oh, here comes the ruruland’s “you shouldn’t be a fan then” argument, congratulations!

      and I’m sorry, but it’s all about the way you build your roster… take OKC, one of your examples.

      you say Westbrook and Harden would have gone higher today in the draft and that’s absolutely obvious, but at the time of the draft, pretty much every “NBA specialist” hammered them for signing a guy who was a 2-guard and couldn’t shoot (Westbrook) and a polished but not spectacular guy (Harden) ahead of “so many better options” like Evans, Rubio or Curry.

      it’s all about strategy, and the Knicks strategy has been an inherently flawed one from the start.

      in the NBA, you either get 2/3 superstars to come together or you build through the draft and hope to be lucky.

      our experiment was pairing 2 superstars, Anthony and Amare, and…

    34. Garson

      Hubert:
      I was just looking at the salary caps for 2015, when our supposed reset will take place.

      As it stands now (and this is taking into consideration the deals just signed), 20 out of 30 teams stand to have $40mm or more in cap space!

      I don’t think I can recall a situation like that.The new CBA is really changing things.

      Next year, there’s only 6.

      Dont buy any Jerseys until 2015!

    35. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Z-man: h

      It’s illogical to say that Karl had the right players, but put the wrong ones into the game? How is that illogical?

      I have never said that coaches don’t matter. I have said that coaches, replaced by other NBA coaches, will not yield a change in per-minute production.

      Coaches are entirely responsible for playing individual players, and that is where George Karl is terrible. George Karl is more interested in his coaching philosophy than in individual player production.

      Benching centers to play more Corey Brewer is a sure-fire way to make your team lose. Playing the small-ball game instead of playing your best 5 is a sure-fire way to make your team lose. JaVale McGee, no matter how stupid on the court, is better than Corey Brewer. He should not be benched for more than half the game in the playoffs. It doesn’t matter what bullshit match-up argument you want to mount: you do not bench your two 7-footers during the playoffs.

      Now everyone get pissy because I corrected a misrepresentation of my position. Go!

    36. Bruno Almeida

      and Juany, your Dallas example is even more misguided.

      I would be totally fine if the Knicks did what Dallas did: stick to Dirk and keep trying to build around him.

      stick with Anthony and build around him… but you know what the difference is? Cuban was able to clear cap space and maintain flexibility while piling up assets, which in turn allowed him to keep Jason Terry and trade for Kidd, Marion and Chandler.

      the Knicks, on the other hand, are stuck with a pathetic Amare Stoudemire contract that is pretty much the most untradeable contract in the NBA, and have no young attractive assets other than Shumpert and maybe J.R Smith (and no draft picks).

    37. Juany8

      THCJ, as many have said time and time again, if your solution for Denver’s problems was to play javale McGee, there were no solutions for Denver’s problems. When you have to hope a shitty player gets more minutes to improve your team, you’re not a contender. When you bitch about George Karl every single year and yet say the nuggets will be contenders despite knowing he’s still there, people are going to call you shitty at predictions. You’re trying to mask the fact that you made an awful call bag pretty much anyone could have seen coming. Plus it’s quite amusing to hear you say Melo has a terrible playoff record while ignoring that his coach was George Karl most of the time. That’s called being intellectually dishonest, and it’s why everyone treats WP and most of the things you say as a joke

    38. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: So you’re saying that your prediction method can’t take into account a factor which has the capability to sink a team? A factor which was in no way a surprise given that George Karl had been there for 8 seasons and flopped in the playoffs consistently? Doesn’t that just make you a shitty predictor (which is exactly what Juany was pointing out)?

      It does take that into consideration during the playoffs. It can project how different minute distributions will affect win probability. Wages of Wins has determined the difference between regular season minute allocations and playoff allocations. They then predict how a team will fare. The problem is that Karl decides that the strategy that made his team win in the regular season won’t work in the playoffs.

      That doesn’t make WP48 a shitty predictor. It makes Karl a shitty coach. And were WP to factor in Karl’s strange, unpredictable minute allocations, I’m sure you’d see that Nuggets would be far less favored to win, especially against Golden State, which was a very strong basketball team. It wasn’t Nuggets-Bucks. It was Nuggets-Team That Almost Made It To The WCF During A Tough Year.

      Did you read Roundball Mining Co. during the playoffs? Their fans were pissed. Shit like, “WHY THE FUCK IS COREY BREWER PLAYING?” and “WHY IS FARIED PLAYING CENTER? HE HAS NOT DONE THIS MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES ALL YEAR.”

    39. Hubert

      Degree_Absolute:

      That said, if neither of these guys work out, Amare gets hurt again, and Chandler is ineffective, it is only two seasons before they are all off the books.It may be hard to fathom, but this is real progress for the Knicks as an organization.Clowns like Layden and Thomas never paid attention to the cap like GG has.While still remaining competitive, Knicks management actually created and planned an exit strategy.This, in my mind, is the most pleasant outcome of this off-season.

      Again, I think people are being a little to optimistic with sentiments like this.

      The new cba limits the length of contracts, and suddenly everyone thinks we crafted an escape plan.

      As I mentioned above, TWENTY of the thirty teams in the league will have enough cap space for two max free agents. I think the design you believe is the Knicks’ is in fact the NBA’s. We’re headed towards whirlwind summers filled with player movement that keep the league in the news year round, and limit the amount of destruction bad teams can cause themselves.

    40. Z-man

      So are you saying that if Denver had a different coach, they would have finished with a better record and higher seed? Could losing Gallo have had anything to do with their getting unceremoniously bounced in the first round? Or was it just bad coaching?

    41. Juany8

      Bruno Almeida:
      and Juany, your Dallas example is even more misguided.

      I would be totally fine if the Knicks did what Dallas did: stick to Dirk and keep trying to build around him.

      stick with Anthony and build around him… but you know what the difference is? Cuban was able to clear cap space and maintain flexibility while piling up assets, which in turn allowed him to keep Jason Terry and trade for Kidd, Marion and Chandler.

      the Knicks, on the other hand, are stuck with a pathetic Amare Stoudemire contract that is pretty much the most untradeable contract in the NBA, and have no young attractive assets other than Shumpert and maybe J.R Smith (and no draft picks).

      Are you joking? Dallas was one of the top payers in the league EVERY year they had dirk. They continuously have out massive contracts to crappy players, they bombed all their picks or have them away for other overpaid players, and were considered a distant threat to win the year they actually won it. In fact the only difference between Dallas and the Knicks now is that Dallas was able to get away with throwing away cap space because of the old CBA. Now teams can’t keep overpaying people to bring them in like Dallas used to, so the Knicks won’t be overpaying Brendan Haywood and Caron butler to be mostly worthless in the playoffs. They got Kidd because they traded a younger player that had just made an all star team to get him.

      If anything the problem is that the Knicks are following the Dallas model in a world where the Dallas model is more limited. The trade for Bargs would have been a classic Dallas move back in the day, overpay for a veteran on a big contract that might end up being useful. That’s exactly what they did with Tyson chandler lol, bobcats literally dumped him after he was dumped by New Orleans. And they had Brendan Haywood making $55 million at he time lol

    42. jon abbey

      so so so funny. Denver lost the GS series because they lost home court advantage in game 2, in a game where Barnes/Jack/Curry/Thompson combined to shoot a ridiculous 40-63 for 100 points. and genius THCJ (otherwise known as ‘Phil Jackson of the couch’) blames Karl for not playing his centers more? I mean, you can’t make that up.

      and that’s not even getting into McGee and Faried being sieves defensively when they are in there. you know, the half of the game that PJOTC (my new acronym for THCJ) always chooses to ignore.

    43. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: It does take that into consideration during the playoffs. It can project how different minute distributions will affect win probability. Wages of Wins has determined the difference between regular season minute allocations and playoff allocations. They then predict how a team will fare. The problem is that Karl decides that the strategy that made his team win in the regular season won’t work in the playoffs.

      That doesn’t make WP48 a shitty predictor. It makes Karl a shitty coach. And were WP to factor in Karl’s strange, unpredictable minute allocations, I’m sure you’d see that Nuggets would be far less favored to win, especially against Golden State, which was a very strong basketball team. It wasn’t Nuggets-Bucks. It was Nuggets-Team That Almost Made It To The WCF During A Tough Year.

      Did you read Roundball Mining Co. during the playoffs? Their fans were pissed. Shit like, “WHY THE FUCK IS COREY BREWER PLAYING?” and “WHY IS FARIED PLAYING CENTER? HE HAS NOT DONE THIS MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES ALL YEAR.”

      If you had read the blog any time before, you would have realized that Karl playing odd lineups was nothing new, and that Andre miller, a WP favorite, was getting as much shit as Karl. They all want him gone. You don’t get a pass for ignoring he was there when I’m predicting Denver will flameout in part because of George Karl. You don’t get bonus points for ignoring information, that shit is literally the antithesis of moneyball.

    44. Juany8

      jon abbey:
      so so so funny. Denver lost the GS series because they lost home court advantage in game 2, in a game where Barnes/Jack/Curry/Thompson combined to shoot a ridiculous 40-63 for 100 points. and genius THCJ (otherwise known as ‘Phil Jackson of the couch’) blames Karl for not playing his centers more? I mean, you can’t make that up.

      and that’s not even getting into McGee and Faried being sieves defensively when they are in there. you know, the half of the game that PJOTC (my new acronym for THCJ) always chooses to ignore.

      THCJ never let’s facts get in the way of good statistics!

    45. er

      Bruno Almeida: oh, here comes the ruruland’s “you shouldn’t be a fan then” argument, congratulations!

      and I’m sorry, but it’s all about the way you build your roster… take OKC, one of your examples.

      you say Westbrook and Harden would have gone higher today in the draft and that’s absolutely obvious, but at the time of the draft, pretty much every “NBA specialist” hammered them for signing a guy who was a 2-guard and couldn’t shoot (Westbrook) and a polished but not spectacular guy (Harden) ahead of “so many better options” like Evans, Rubio or Curry.

      it’s all about strategy, and the Knicks strategy has been an inherently flawed one from the start.

      in the NBA, you either get 2/3 superstars to come together or you build through the draft and hope to be lucky.

      our experiment was pairing 2 superstars, Anthony and Amare, and…

      OKC got FOUR top 5 picks for god sake. Only terrible management could mess that up. This obsession with condemning every Knick move is just annoying. The Knicks took a gamble in signing Stat and so far it looks like they lost. But ill be damned if i dont give this team a chance. I look forward to our options at the 4 and 5 and also to see the growth of THJ and Lesilie while pipe is on the shelf.

    46. Bruno Almeida

      Juany8: Are you joking? Dallas was one of the top payers in the league EVERY year they had dirk. They continuously have out massive contracts to crappy players, they bombed all their picks or have them away for other overpaid players, and were considered a distant threat to win the year they actually won it. In fact the only difference between Dallas and the Knicks now is that Dallas was able to get away with throwing away cap space because of the old CBA. Now teams can’t keep overpaying people to bring them in like Dallas used to, so the Knicks won’t be overpaying Brendan Haywood and Caron butler to be mostly worthless in the playoffs. They got Kidd because they traded a younger player that had just made an all star team to get him.

      If anything the problem is that the Knicks are following the Dallas model in a world where the Dallas model is more limited. The trade for Bargs would have been a classic Dallas move back in the day, overpay for a veteran on a big contract that might end up being useful. That’s exactly what they did with Tyson chandler lol, bobcats literally dumped him after he was dumped by New Orleans. And they had Brendan Haywood making $55 million at he time lol

      they still had enough assets to trade for 3 of the main contributors on the team, Chandler, Kidd and Marion.

      what you said only proves, this time, what I said about the Knicks in the first place: it’s a stupid and flawed strategy.

    47. Bruno Almeida

      er: OKC got FOUR top 5 picks for god sake. Only terrible management could mess that up. This obsession with condemning every Knick move is just annoying. The Knicks took a gamble in signing Stat and so far it looks like they lost. But ill be damned if i dont give this team a chance. I look forward to our options at the 4 and 5 and also to see the growth of THJ and Lesilie while pipe is on the shelf.

      the Bobcats have been doing it on a fairly consistent basis, the Kings too.

      and I’m also tired about this obsession that if you criticize the Knicks, you have no place here, there can only be space for the usual spin doctors that love every Knicks move and then start making excuses by the 2nd round of the playoffs.

    48. Hubert

      d-mar: Melo had a torn labrum, JR we now know had a pretty serious knee problem, Chandler’s weight was down 15 lbs. from some illness and Amare was coming back from knee debridement. Yes, I think that’s worse than not having the overrated Danny Grainger on Indiana.

      Don’t you know? Danny Granger became the bionic man last year. That’s why everyone is talking about his return in the same breath as Derrick Rose, instead of putting it in the same category as getting Amar’e Stoudemire back, which would be a far more apt comparison.

    49. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: If you had read the blog any time before, you would have realized that Karl playing odd lineups was nothing new, and that Andre miller, a WP favorite, was getting as much shit as Karl. They all want him gone. You don’t get a pass for ignoring he was there when I’m predicting Denver will flameout in part because of George Karl. You don’t get bonus points for ignoring information, that shit is literally the antithesis of moneyball.

      There is literally not a single good point in this entire post.

    50. Hubert

      Bruno Almeida:

      but you know what the difference is? Cuban was able to clear cap space and maintain flexibility while piling up assets, which in turn allowed him to keep Jason Terry and trade for Kidd, Marion and Chandler.

      You know those acquisitions were all pretty much derided at the time, right?

      They got killed for the Kidd trade. Terry was a reclamation project. Chandler was available to anyone who wanted him. I think Marion was the only one that was considered a no-brainer. They let Steve Nash walk, FFS.

      The only thing Dallas did that was considerably smarter than anything we’ve done was find a great coach.

    51. Bruno Almeida

      Hubert: You know those acquisitions were all pretty much derided at the time, right?

      They got killed for the Kidd trade.Terry was a reclamation project.Chandler was available to anyone who wanted him.I think Marion was the only one that was considered a no-brainer.They let Steve Nash walk, FFS.

      The only thing Dallas did that was considerably smarter than anything we’ve done was find a great coach.

      I do, but that’s what GMs should be doing, moves that actually have good results, even if they aren’t praised by the common sense.

      instead, the Knicks have made moves that have been widely “praised” (at least on this board), and the results…

    52. Juany8

      Hubert: You know those acquisitions were all pretty much derided at the time, right?

      They got killed for the Kidd trade.Terry was a reclamation project.Chandler was available to anyone who wanted him.I think Marion was the only one that was considered a no-brainer.They let Steve Nash walk, FFS.

      The only thing Dallas did that was considerably smarter than anything we’ve done was find a great coach.

      Lol thanks Hubert, this is what I was talking about as the difference between objective criticism and blind pessimism. I’m not a huge fan of blind optimism either, but at least I want to believe it, life is stressful enough without forcing myself to be miserable on a message board to prove a point to people I’ll likely never meet.

    53. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: Thank god, the day you ever agree with one of my posts is the day I’ll know Something went horribly wrong.

      “economics is a pseudoscience”

      Tremendous dipshit.

    54. er

      Bruno Almeida: the Bobcats have been doing it on a fairly consistent basis, the Kings too.

      and I’m also tired about this obsession that if you criticize the Knicks, you have no place here, there can only be space for the usual spin doctors that love every Knicks move and then start making excuses by the 2nd round of the playoffs.

      Good points on the kings and Hornets. By no means am i saying you complainers don’t belong. Of course you do, its just that the team has alotta potential this year and certain posters think the sky is falling because Bargnani is the worst player ever etc .

      Carry on the complaints, i just dont understand it after years of irrelevance, to now a team with a chance to win the chip

    55. er

      Bruno Almeida: I do, but that’s what GMs should be doing, moves that actually have good results, even if they aren’t praised by the common sense.

      instead, the Knicks have made moves that have been widely “praised” (at least on this board), and the results…

      What Knick move has been praised in the last 2 years?

      Kidd?
      Wallace?
      Barfs?
      LIN????
      Fields?

      Hell even the Melo trade has been criticized the last few years

    56. Bruno Almeida

      er: What Knick move has been praised in the last 2 years?

      Kidd?
      Wallace?
      Barfs?
      LIN????
      Fields?

      Hell even the Melo trade has been criticized the last few years

      by ruruland, Juany and the spin doctors? pretty much every one, from Sheed to MWP.

    57. Bruno Almeida

      Juany8: Lol thanks Hubert, this is what I was talking about as the difference between objective criticism and blind pessimism. I’m not a huge fan of blind optimism either, but at least I want to believe it, life is stressful enough without forcing myself to be miserable on a message board to prove a point to people I’ll likely never meet.

      objective criticism, ok.

      do you really think objective criticism is something that happens around here, on this board (or anywhere for that matter)?

      if that’s really your position, then I’m done here.

    58. Hubert

      Bruno Almeida:
      and I’m also tired about this obsession that if you criticize the Knicks, you have no place here, there can only be space for the usual spin doctors that love every Knicks move and then start making excuses by the 2nd round of the playoffs.

      I’ve found criticism to be welcome here. I don’t understand what your criticism is, though. You just seem angry that the Knicks have employed a flawed strategy. But the counterpoints that people are trying to make is a) even flawed strategies occasionally win a title, and b) after LeBron formed his super team in Miami, the only strategies that were available were flawed and it was just a matter of degrees.

    59. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: It does take that into consideration during the playoffs. It can project how different minute distributions will affect win probability. Wages of Wins has determined the difference between regular season minute allocations and playoff allocations. They then predict how a team will fare. The problem is that Karl decides that the strategy that made his team win in the regular season won’t work in the playoffs.

      That doesn’t make WP48 a shitty predictor. It makes Karl a shitty coach. And were WP to factor in Karl’s strange, unpredictable minute allocations, I’m sure you’d see that Nuggets would be far less favored to win, especially against Golden State, which was a very strong basketball team. It wasn’t Nuggets-Bucks. It was Nuggets-Team That Almost Made It To The WCF During A Tough Year.

      Did you read Roundball Mining Co. during the playoffs? Their fans were pissed. Shit like, “WHY THE FUCK IS COREY BREWER PLAYING?” and “WHY IS FARIED PLAYING CENTER? HE HAS NOT DONE THIS MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES ALL YEAR.”

      You’re completely missing the point as usual. George Karl being a sucky postseason coach was extremely predictable. It’s one of several reasons that most people didn’t think the Nuggets were contenders. The fact that you ignored that information when you called the Nuggets contenders doesn’t somehow make your prediction better.

      My prediction: The Heat will be the worst team in the league.

      Me, one year from now: “Oh I didn’t realize they were going to play Lebron and Wade and Bosh this year. My prediction was actually good, Spoelsta just screwed it up.”

    60. Hubert

      Bruno Almeida: I do, but that’s what GMs should be doing, moves that actually have good results, even if they aren’t praised by the common sense.

      But that’s exactly what Grunwald is trying to do and you are panning the moves before you even see the results!

    61. Juany8

      er: Good points on the kings and Hornets. By no means am i saying you complainers don’t belong. Of course you do, its just that the team has alotta potential this year and certain posters think the sky is falling because Bargnani is the worst player ever etc .

      Carry on the complaints, i just dont understand it after years of irrelevance, to now a team with a chance to win the chip

      This sums up my points perfectly er. You can root however you want, doesn’t make me a spin doctor because I think trading Novak and copeland for bargs is a tiny, sideways trade that won’t hurt or help much. I’ve been shitting on Amar’e too, so it’s hard for me to see where I’ve tried to spin everything the Knicks do as a good move. If anything my biggest spin attempt of the year was trying to pretend OKC had done fine with the harden trade before watching them let Kevin Martin leave for nothing.

      Bruno Almeida: objective criticism, ok.

      do you really think objective criticism is something that happens around here, on this board (or anywhere for that matter)?

      if that’s really your position, then I’m done here.

      Great! You’re fully the anti-ruru for the day, how many times has he made a big deal about leaving a message board because other people had wildly different opinions from him?

    62. Bruno Almeida

      Hubert: I’ve found criticism to be welcome here.I don’t understand what your criticism is, though.You just seem angry that the Knicks have employed a flawed strategy.But the counterpoints that people are trying to make is a) even flawed strategies occasionally win a title, and b) after LeBron formed his super team in Miami, the only strategies that were available were flawed and it was just a matter of degrees.

      I agree with a, but I disagree completely with b.

      the only available strategies to “contend” right now were flawed? yes.

      but this franchise has employed a ideal that it would always be able to attract the premier free agents or trade options of the market, and this has been a huge mistake, from the Lebron chase to the endless speculations about Chris Paul, Steve Nash and others.

      turns out, that misguided perception has led this franchise to spend a max contract on a deeply flawed (and always injured) Stoudemire, and on Anthony, who is obviously a great player.

      so no, I really don’t agree that the way the Knicks of 2013 has been built was the only strategy.

      I would have rather kept the multiple draft picks traded in recent years and went through with that.

    63. Bruno Almeida

      Juany8:
      Great! You’re fully the anti-ruru for the day, how many times has he made a big deal about leaving a message board because other people had wildly different opinions from him?

      who said anything about leaving? all I said was that if you truly believe your opinions are objective criticism (or that objective criticism is even possible on a message board), I’m done discussing anything with you.

    64. Bruno Almeida

      Hubert: But that’s exactly what Grunwald is trying to do and you are panning the moves before you even see the results!

      I’m panning the moves because it is a different NBA, Dallas could maintain flexibility while spending a lot, under the new CBA this is no longer possible.

    65. jon abbey

      Bruno Almeida:

      I would have rather kept the multiple draft picks traded in recent years and went through with that.

      which is legit, but let’s not pretend there’s even a fifty percent chance NY would be better positioned to win now or even in the future, and the franchise value certainly wouldn’t have doubled over the last seven years employing your strategy (not that there’s any reason for fans to care about this, but obviously there is for owners):

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/07/15/values-of-cowboys-dodgers-and-knicks-soar-despite-playoff-failures/

    66. Bruno Almeida

      jon abbey: which is legit, but let’s not pretend there’s even a fifty percent chance NY would be better positioned to win now or even in the future, and the franchise value certainly wouldn’t have doubled over the last seven years employing your strategy (not that there’s any reason for fans to care about this, but obviously there is for owners):

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/07/15/values-of-cowboys-dodgers-and-knicks-soar-despite-playoff-failures/

      well, that’s a great point, one can obviously understand it from the business standpoint.

      I agree with you on the less than 50%, but I still rather have a 30% of being a true contender, than having to hope Stoudemire gets healthy and suddenly turns himself into a great defender.

    67. Hubert

      Bruno Almeida:

      so no, I really don’t agree that the way the Knicks of 2013 has been built was the only strategy.

      I would have rather kept the multiple draft picks traded in recent years and went through with that.

      I didn’t say it was the only strategy. I said all the strategies were flawed. Your recommendation in the last sentence is flawed, as well. OKC basically hit three home runs in a row in the draft. I give them massive credit for that, but it’s hard to replicate and I wouldn’t have like our chances to do it.

      Look, for instance, what would have happened if, after striking out on LeBron, we just rolled over the cap space over and fielded a non-playoff team the following year. We would have landed in the lottery and, unless we got amazingly lucky and won it and drafted Kyrie, our top 10 pick would have likely been someone from the Derrick Williams, Tristan Thompson, Jan Vesely, Bismack Biyombo, Jimmer Fredette, Kemba Walker, Brandon Knight crew.

      As it turns out, we got a better player at 17 than any of those lottery guys!

      We had a choice of strategies that had a low probability of yielding a title, and while this may not have been the smartest one to choose, at least it provides us some entertaining basketball while it doesn’t work!

    68. lavor postell

      Bruno Almeida: by ruruland, Juany and the spin doctors? pretty much every one, from Sheed to MWP.

      Was last year really that bad? We won the division for the first time since 1994. We won 54 games. We beat a hated rival in the first round and exorcised some demons in doing so. We lost to a very good Pacers team that took the champion Heat. who have added nothing significant to their roster yet this offseason, to 7 games.

      We won the season series against Miami, swept San Antonio, won a memorable game in OKC with the a banged up Tyson Chandler platooning the center position with a banged up KMart and Copeland. We finished our regular season with a very memorable flourish and clinched the 2 seed.

      Was I pissed when we lost to Indiana because Woodson decided that the corpse of Jason Kidd and JR Smith should be allowed maximum game time over Copeland who was giving us some nice complementary scoring? Absolute. Maybe if Hibbert didn’t magically get treated like the next coming of Kareem Abdul Jabbar while Chandler simultaneously was physiclly incapable of competing against him the outcome may have been different as well.

      I mean maybe people are happier just being pissed about the end result, but we actually did accomplish some positive things last season without obtaining the ultimate prize. We will be able to reshuffle the deck in 2 years with our last remaining outstanding asset owed a 2016 first rounder with JR Smith, THJ and Felton definitely under contract for around $10 million. I just have a really hard time getting super worked up about this when I figured this was the reality once we traded the majority of our remaining assets for Melo.

    69. thenamestsam

      To each his own but I saw almost as much good basketball from the Knicks this year as the past 10 years combined. They finished 2nd in the East in the regular season and lost an extremely tightly contested series against a team that took the eventual champs to 7 games in the finals. I’m happy the Knicks are good again and if I had to go back and do it again no way do I go for a strategy that means a higher chance of sitting through a bunch more years in the lottery watching 50-60 loss teams. I dream of a championship but that doesn’t mean I’m indifferent between watching a horrible team and a very good one.

      On a completely different note: Miami amnestying Miller is good news for the rest of the East. He barely laid in the regular season but he was critical in both of the last 2 playoff runs for them. It may only weaken them slightly, but every little bit counts.

    70. Juany8

      jon abbey: he’s hardly alone in that opinion, there are dozens if not hundreds of columns on the web that agree, include plenty of economists. here’s one to start:

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-pseudoscience-economics

      I love that he thinks that simple proclamation is enough to ignore everything else I have to say. Especially since I stand firmly behind that position, for the very reasons this article articulates better than I can. The fun thing is that the same ideas apply to basketball statistics. Not at all surprising that berry is an economics professor

    71. Bruno Almeida

      jon abbey: he’s hardly alone in that opinion, there are dozens if not hundreds of columns on the web that agree, include plenty of economists. here’s one to start:

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-pseudoscience-economics

      that’s a nice text, thanks!

      I still do believe that statistics are, sometimes, useful tools, and should be used accordingly.
      there’s no use in throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

      however, I find it increasingly amusing that Juany agrees with this text, yet thinks his analysis on this board could be called “objective criticism”.

    72. massive

      The idea that both Charlotte and Sacramento have been picking inside the top 5 for years is false. DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans were picked 5th and 4th. Nobody else on Sacto’s roster is a top 5 pick. Tyler Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went 4th and 2nd. Nobody else on Charlotte’s roster is a top 5 pick. OKC had 4 picks, and got bad returns on James Harden (Jeremy Lamb) and Jeff Green (Kendrick Perkins sucks). Another thing about OKC is that everyone crowns them champions of the front office but they haven’t won a championship yet. They probably never will, too.

      All teams need luck to win. Unfortunately for us, we haven’t had any yet. But pretty much every system works except the Billy King/Isiah Thomas way of doing things.

    73. thenamestsam

      massive: Another thing about OKC is that everyone crowns them champions of the front office but they haven’t won a championship yet. They probably never will, too.

      Wow, this is such an aggressive statement. Why do you think they never will? They’re pretty clear 2nd favorites for next year and their core is still extremely young. The Harden trade hasn’t worked out and the Perkins trade continues to haunt them, but they still have the 2nd best player in the league, a 2nd top 10 guy and a 3rd all-star level player, all under 25. Chances are significantly better than 50-50 that they win one in the next 5 years in my opinion.

    74. er

      thenamestsam: Wow, this is such an aggressive statement. Why do you think they never will? They’re pretty clear 2nd favorites for next year and their core is still extremely young. The Harden trade hasn’t worked out and the Perkins trade continues to haunt them, but they still have the 2nd best player in the league, a 2nd top 10 guy and a 3rd all-star level player, all under 25. Chances are significantly better than 50-50 that they win one in the next 5 years in my opinion.

      I don’t think this incarnation will win either. Steven Adams could be a viable replacement for Perk though. They wont win til they get a better coach or an offense.

    75. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: You’re completely missing the point as usual. George Karl being a sucky postseason coach was extremely predictable. It’s one of several reasons that most people didn’t think the Nuggets were contenders. The fact that you ignored that information when you called the Nuggets contenders doesn’t somehow make your prediction better.

      So what does this have to do with the Nuggets’ players being overvalued by WP?

    76. Frank

      thenamestsam: Wow, this is such an aggressive statement. Why do you think they never will? They’re pretty clear 2nd favorites for next year and their core is still extremely young. The Harden trade hasn’t worked out and the Perkins trade continues to haunt them, but they still have the 2nd best player in the league, a 2nd top 10 guy and a 3rd all-star level player, all under 25. Chances are significantly better than 50-50 that they win one in the next 5 years in my opinion.

      Sure feels like Scott Brooks is standing in the way of that. Really surprised that Presti hasn’t gone and gotten someone better.

    77. Juany8

      Bruno Almeida: that’s a nice text, thanks!

      I still do believe that statistics are, sometimes, useful tools, and should be used accordingly.
      there’s no use in throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

      however, I find it increasingly amusing that Juany agrees with this text, yet thinks his analysis on this board could be called “objective criticism”.

      Jesus you get worked up over little things, will it make it better if I say attempted objective criticism? You really can’t see the difference between someone who tries to be fair and look at both the good and bad side of moves instead of bitching about how the Knicks always lose trades and make bad moves? All you’re doing is complaining, call what I do subjective analysis if it makes you happy, doesn’t make my arguments any less valid.

    78. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: So what does this have to do with the Nuggets’ players being overvalued by WP?

      Do you read what other people write or are you just arguing with voices in your head? This is like the non sequitur to end all non sequiturs. Did anyone actually make that statement?

    79. MeloDrama

      There are so many ways to build a successful franchise.

      Sam Presti is an EXCELLENT talent scout. He made the most of that with a slew of great, early round draft picks.

      Daryl Morey understands how to value assets more than most, is pretty much the NBA’s godfather of advanced stats.

      LAL and Boston built champions through trades.

      Pat Riley set up a vision to sign three players in one summer, including the best, and nailed it.

      Denver built an excellent team through a combination of good scouting and, mostly, extremely smart trades.

      Memphis lucked out with Marc Gasol (becoming as good as he is as a 2nd rounder), made a great deal for Z-Bo, nailed the Conley pick and brought in Tony Allen.

      San Antonio got lucky with the Duncan draft, but also scouts extremely well and have a great grasp of what’s important in valuing a player, just like Presti in OKC.

      Look, NY has a big handicap in James Dolan. LA is about to see firsthand what that’s like with little Buss. Some of our options as far as rebuilding are taken off the table when he can “take over negotiations” on one of his ridiculous whims. But Grunwald’s built a pretty nice roster. It’s two stars, Chandler and Melo, compliment each other extremely well. A team like Denver has a lot more flexibility in theory to manuever around, but then again NYK’s books are like COMPLETELY CLEAR in 2 years, something that seems to get ignored. They’ve handled the cap so much more responsibly in the past few seasons, even post-Walsh.

      We saw this team beat OKC on its home floor, take Miami down 3 times, make a fantastic comeback against the Spurs. We saw them finally finish off Boston. We saw them reignite the Indiana rivalry. We saw this team play truly relevant basketball in April and May … and really, all year long.

      Could they do a better, smarter job of building? Absolutely. But the “championship or it doesn’t matter” crowd, I can’t get behind. I wouldn’t trade in the Ewing years…

    80. DRed

      thenamestsam: Do you read what other people write or are you just arguing with voices in your head? This is like the non sequitur to end all non sequiturs. Did anyone actually make that statement?

      I think there are basically two arguments here that have been conflated into one dispute today. One, is that WP was wrong to pick the Nuggets to win a lot of games. Early in last season there was a lot of smug laughter from Juany and other posters who dont think it’s a good stat when the Nuggets were playing poorly. In the end it turned out the WP guys picked the Nuggets to win 56 games, and they won 57.

      On the other hand, there’s also an argument that it was always wrong to consider the Nuggets a contender while Karl was there coach because of his poor playoff record.

    81. thenamestsam

      er: They wont win til they get a better coach or an offense.

      Frank: Sure feels like Scott Brooks is standing in the way of that. Really surprised that Presti hasn’t gone and gotten someone better.

      Brooks sucks, that’s basically indisputable. But let’s remember that even with him at the helm OKC has a 107-41 record over the last two regular seasons. And I know it’s been almost completely forgotten the way that losers usually are, but lots of people expected OKC to beat Miami last year, and lots of people felt Brooks outcoached Pop in the WCF. And they were a blown foul call at the end of Game 2 away from having a great shot at having a 2-0 lead in the finals. They also had the lead in the 4th quarter of games 3 and 4 in Miami (lost both games by 6 points). It seems like everyone remembers that series as some kind of blowout because it only lasted 5 games and Miami won the 5th so decisively, but it really wasn’t.

      Even with Brooks they have a very real chance of winning a title. And there’s a good chance he’ll be replaced in the next year or so if they don’t win one.

    82. DRed

      Presti’s an odd case-he’s made some very savvy moves, but also made two trades that really hurt his chances of winning a title and he seems to be giving Scotty Brooks too much time. Anyone who plays Kendrick Perkins that much in the playoffs needs to be fired.

    83. thenamestsam

      DRed: I think there are basically two arguments here that have been conflated into one dispute today.One, is that WP was wrong to pick the Nuggets to win a lot of games.Early in last season there was a lot of smug laughter from Juany and other posters who dont think it’s a good stat when the Nuggets were playing poorly.In the end it turned out the WP guys picked the Nuggets to win 56 games, and they won 57.

      On the other hand, there’s also an argument that it was always wrong to consider the Nuggets a contender while Karl was there coach because of his poor playoff record.

      Fair enough. As far as I can tell nobody has referenced the first argument in this thread, so I don’t see its relevance here (though for the record I was on his side about their regular season prowess and pointed out at least a couple times the extreme difficulty of their early season schedule when people were crowing about their mediocrity).

    84. Frank

      @90 – this site is literally ground zero for the “grass is greener” mentality. It’s so much easier to criticize a result than to create that result.

    85. Juany8

      DRed: I think there are basically two arguments here that have been conflated into one dispute today.One, is that WP was wrong to pick the Nuggets to win a lot of games.Early in last season there was a lot of smug laughter from Juany and other posters who dont think it’s a good stat when the Nuggets were playing poorly.In the end it turned out the WP guys picked the Nuggets to win 56 games, and they won 57.

      On the other hand, there’s also an argument that it was always wrong to consider the Nuggets a contender while Karl was there coach because of his poor playoff record.

      Uhhhhh…. That WAS my argument, that Denver’s regular season record overrates their playoff performance. They did do better in the regular season than I predicted (57 to 51) but so did the Knicks (54 to 52). In fact pretty much all the top teams had a few more wins than I predicted, but I nailed the nuggets being total non contenders once the playoffs came around, which was the key part of my prediction.

      On the other hand, I emphatically made the prediction that the heat would win under 60 and that went terribly wrong. That’s a much better place to attack me if you want to call me out. Of course WP also predicted under 60 wins so…. Lol

    86. Hubert

      Just for fun I looked at the last couple of drafts and tried to figure out where we would have ended up and what we would have done if we’d not signed Amar’e and done the Melo trade in 2010-11.

      We’d probably have been just good enough to not win the lottery. So let’s put us picking somewhere between 5 and 10. Given our coach is MDA and he’s been running Chris Duhon for 2 out of the last 3 years, the guy I think most likely to be our “reward” for not going all in is…Kemba Walker.

      The lockout ends, we’re still a laughing stock so no one wants to come here. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony is engineering a trade to bring his best friend, Chris Paul, to come join him on the Nets.

      Finally, in year 4, it all bottoms out. MDA quits, Dolan fires Donnie. We suck miserably. But we don’t win the lottery. We end up with the #2 pick and take Bradley Beal.

      I mean, do the people who advocate that we should have gone the OKC route even look at the players drafted in the last two lotteries?

      How would you like to be supporting a Kemba Walker-Bradley Beal-Timofey Mozgov-Wilson Chandler-Danilo Gallinari team right now, with Landry Fields and Jeremy Lin off the bench (of course), only Linsanity never happened because we didn’t have Tyson Chandler and the defense that really keyed that 7-0 run…

      My god this is depressing. I am so happy I don’t live in that reality.

      This strategy may not yield a title, but I like it better than trying to imitate Sam Presti’s success.

    87. Juany8

      Also Denver had one of the most lopsided home and away records I’ve ever seen, and I wrote more than one post about how road record was a better predictor of success than total record since some teams have a built in advantage at home during the regular season. There’s plenty of things I’m dead wrong about, but last year’s nuggets aren’t it.

    88. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8:
      Also Denver had one of the most lopsided home and away records I’ve ever seen, and I wrote more than one post about how road record was a better predictor of success than total record since some teams have a built in advantage at home during the regular season. There’s plenty of things I’m dead wrong about, but last year’s nuggets aren’t it.

      Typical…

    89. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: Uhhhhh…. That WAS my argument, that Denver’s regular season record overrates their playoff performance. They did do better in the regular season than I predicted (57 to 51) but so did the Knicks (54 to 52). In fact pretty much all the top teams had a few more wins than I predicted, but I nailed the nuggets being total non contenders once the playoffs came around, which was the key part of my prediction.

      And how does WP explain their playoff performance? That their players suddenly become awful? No. It says, “You reduced the minutes of the players who were productive and raised the minutes of the players who were not productive.”

      This is a far better argument than the subjective analyses of George Karl, which have nothing to do with his inexplicable reduction in PT for his two 7-footers.

    90. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And how does WP explain their playoff performance? That their players suddenly become awful? No. It says, “You reduced the minutes of the players who were productive and raised the minutes of the players who were not productive.”

      This is a far better argument than the subjective analyses of George Karl, which have nothing to do with his inexplicable reduction in PT for his two 7-footers.

      There have been at least 5 posts on this very thread that said it is your own fault for claiming the nuggets were contenders while George Karl is the coach. Even DRed, who generally disagrees with me, could see that it was foolish to predict playoff success for the nuggets when George Karl has a history of playing ridiculous lineups and doing odd things as a coach.

      Furthermore, want to know who predicted awesome regular season results for the nuggets, but lousy playoff results? Ruruland.

    91. Eternal OptiKnist

      So, count me among those who did not like the inclusion of the 1st rd pick in the Bargniani trade. It was comforting to find out that Denver has swap rights with us, but then maybe their pick winds up better than ours…who knows. At any rate, we’ll have to wait and see if that turns out to have been good or bad. However, speaking specifically about on-court performance and the next two years ONLY, I dont see how this trade doesn’t have upside. I really feel like the fresh start, reduced expectations, can be more of a follower here could pay real dividends. I am a believer in the mental side of things…confidence is huge in all aspects of life; perhaps more true in direct physical competition. If the guy feels good about himself i think that could raise his ceiling. Please debate what shade of rose the lenses of my glasses are colored..

    92. Juany8

      Eternal OptiKnist:
      So, count me among those who did not like the inclusion of the 1st rd pick in the Bargniani trade.It was comforting to find out that Denver has swap rights with us, but then maybe their pick winds up better than ours…who knows.At any rate, we’ll have to wait and see if that turns out to have been good or bad.However, speaking specifically about on-court performance and the next two years ONLY, I dont see how this trade doesn’t have upside.I really feel like the fresh start, reduced expectations, can be more of a follower here could pay real dividends.I am a believer in the mental side of things…confidence is huge in all aspects of life; perhaps more true in direct physical competition.If the guy feels good about himself i think that could raise his ceiling.Please debate what shade of rose the lenses of my glasses are colored..

      Well I fully agree with everything you said, so since I’m a pro Knicks spin master I’d say your glasses are the deepest shade of red :)

    93. er

      Hubert:
      Just for fun I looked at the last couple of drafts and tried to figure out where we would have ended up and what we would have done if we’d not signed Amar’e and done the Melo trade in 2010-11.

      We’d probably have been just good enough to not win the lottery.So let’s put us picking somewhere between 5 and 10.Given our coach is MDA and he’s been running Chris Duhon for 2 out of the last 3 years, the guy I think most likely to be our “reward” for not going all in is…Kemba Walker.

      The lockout ends, we’re still a laughing stock so no one wants to come here.Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony is engineering a trade to bring his best friend, Chris Paul, to come join him on the Nets.

      Finally, in year 4, it all bottoms out.MDA quits, Dolan fires Donnie. We suck miserably.But we don’t win the lottery.We end up with the #2 pick and take Bradley Beal.

      I mean, do the people who advocate that we should have gone the OKC route even look at the players drafted in the last two lotteries?

      How would you like to be supporting a Kemba Walker-Bradley Beal-Timofey Mozgov-Wilson Chandler-Danilo Gallinari team right now, with Landry Fields and Jeremy Lin off the bench (of course), only Linsanity never happened because we didn’t have Tyson Chandler and the defense that really keyed that 7-0 run…

      My god this is depressing.I am so happy I don’t live in that reality.

      This strategy may not yield a title, but I like it better than trying to imitate Sam Presti’s success.

      YUP

    94. Donnie Walsh

      d-mar: Chandler’s weight was down 15 lbs.

      I’m pretty sure I saw Ty running in West LA today and he looked real skinny. I had to do a double-take.
      (*This has been a KB exclusive report*)

    95. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is a far better argument than the subjective analyses of George Karl, which have nothing to do with his inexplicable reduction in PT for his two 7-footers.

      btw according to B-R, Faried and Javale McGee both played slightly more minutes per game in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. Koufos played 6 less minutes per game. That was the difference in the series? Lawson and Iguodala both played 5-6 more minutes per game in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. The guy who got a lot more minutes was Wilson Chandler, who played about 25 min/game in the reg season and 33 min/game in the playoffs.

      Or were you talking about Timmy Mozgov?

      Like jonabbey wrote above- Denver lost because GS went small and absolutely obliterated them from the outside. In game 2 they shot 64.6% from the field. The reason Koufos and McGee didn’t play much in that game is because neither of them can cover a PNR to save their life.

      I feel a little bad for Denver this season because Gallo went down at just the wrong time, and because they ran into one of the most ridiculous displays of shooting I’ve ever seen. If GS just shoots a little worse, maybe Denver wins that series in spite of Karl and Gallo. But them’s the playoffs – outliers happen and then suddenly you’re going home.

    96. Eternal OptiKnist

      Juany8: Well I fully agree with everything you said, so since I’m a pro Knicks spin master I’d say your glasses are the deepest shade of red :)

      :) I at least don’t see how we’re any worse!

    97. jon abbey

      it’s a shame that THCJ will never in a million years try to give an intelligent, reasoned response to Frank’s fantastic post above, but next time the Nuggets come up, he’ll go right back to blaming their first round elimination on Karl going small.

    98. johnno

      MeloDrama: Look, NY has a big handicap in James Dolan.

      The Knicks also have a huge advantage in James Dolan. He is willing to spend more than any owner (with the possible exception of Prokhorov). Did anyone else see the list of taxpayers over the last 10 years or so? The Knicks are the runaway leader. Put it this way — if Dolan owned OKC, do you think that there is a chance in hell that James Harden would have gotten traded, or do you think that he would be playing on a max contract for them right now? I am not a huge Dolan fan but let’s be fair — he is not ALL bad.

    99. DRed

      jon abbey:
      it’s a shame that THCJ will never in a million years try to give an intelligent, reasoned response to Frank’s fantastic post above, but next time the Nuggets come up, he’ll go right back to blaming their first round elimination on Karl going small.

      The response to this is actually pretty simple. Karl went small too often in the regular season as well, but the Nuggets had Gallo most of that time. Gallo is a productive player. Karl responded to GS’s small lineup by running out a lineup of his own smaller players, who happen to be inferior to Golden State’s. He should have played his bigs and tried to get easy baskets inside on the other end and beat up the Warriors on the glass. Teams that are successful at going small aren’t successful because of some inherent advantage to playing smallball. They are successful because they have really good small players. The Nuggets don’t, and that’s why what Karl did was stupid.

    100. dtrickey

      I really don’t see this team any worse than last year to be honest. It seems a lot of people have forgotten that soooooo many teams in the East, heck even in our own division will be tanking. We’re talking serious tanking not just the, “Oh how about we play some players out of position to try something different, whoops we’re a lottery team” tanking (see Toronto, Philly, Boston). Yes it will be tight at the top, but I really tthink 7th – 15th will suck harder than an industrial vaccume.

      Quiet frankly I am happy that the franchise has actually been able to be in a win now situation, unlike our attempts between 2000-2010. I would much prefer us to continually put a contender together than tank and go the OKC way, whcih by the way is no guarantee to work (see Bobcats, Kings, pre-CP3 & Griffin Clippers).

      Maybe building through the draft is an option post-Melo, but why not keep adding “superstars” if they want to play for us? I’ll be the first to say I am a sucker for the romanticism that is drafting players who stay with team their whole career and are successful, but historically that’s not how this team has been, and with an owner that is happy to spend big it’s unlikely to change.

    101. jon abbey

      DRed: The response to this is actually pretty simple.Karl went small too often in the regular season as well, but the Nuggets had Gallo most of that time.Gallo is a productive player.Karl responded to GS’s small lineup by running out a lineup of his own smaller players, who happen to be inferior to Golden State’s.He should have played his bigs and tried to get easy baskets inside on the other end and beat up the Warriors on the glass.Teams that are successful at going small aren’t successful because of some inherent advantage to playing smallball.They are successful because they have really good small players.The Nuggets don’t, and that’s why what Karl did was stupid.

      but he did play his bigs, did you not read that post?

    102. Juany8

      DRed: The response to this is actually pretty simple.Karl went small too often in the regular season as well, but the Nuggets had Gallo most of that time.Gallo is a productive player.Karl responded to GS’s small lineup by running out a lineup of his own smaller players, who happen to be inferior to Golden State’s.He should have played his bigs and tried to get easy baskets inside on the other end and beat up the Warriors on the glass.Teams that are successful at going small aren’t successful because of some inherent advantage to playing smallball.They are successful because they have really good small players.The Nuggets don’t, and that’s why what Karl did was stupid.

      So after winning 57 games going small against a team that had never gone small before, the correct answer was to go big and play his bigs more than they ever had during the season? Makes sense

    103. DRed

      jon abbey: but he did play his bigs, did you not read that post?

      Of course I read the post. It’s accurate but misleading. I’ll try to explain myself better. Karl did play them more in the playoffs. Slightly more than he did in the regular season, in which he also did not play them enough. Koufos and McGee were 8th and 9th on the team in minutes played during the regular season. In the playoffs they were 7th and 8th on the team in minutes played. They still might have lost to GS even if they’d played more, but it was stupid not to try. Karl basically went with a strategy guaranteed to fail-he tried to match up by playing Golden State’s game-a game Golden State plays better than the Nuggets.

    104. Mike Kurylo Post author

      This is really enjoyable reading people trying to prove or disprove a method based on 7 games. “Guys I just flipped a coin 7 times and 5 were tails. Your theory of 50/50 odds is silly when everyone knows ‘tails never fails’.”

    105. domiknick

      Please correct me if I’m wrong but, I think another way to say what DRed is positing is, had Koufos and McGee played even more minutes in the regular season, they would have finished with more wins than the 57 they actually finished with.

      Juany8 and jon abbey, I’m assuming, would disagree with that result?

    106. BigBlueAL

      Mike Kurylo:
      This is really enjoyable reading people trying to prove or disprove a method based on 7 games. “Guys I just flipped a coin 7 times and 5 were tails. Your theory of 50/50 odds is silly when everyone knows ‘tails never fails’.”

      Well even though the Knicks won 5 more games than the Pacers during the regular season the fact that they beat the Knicks in 6 games in the playoffs has apparently universally made them a much better team than the Knicks. So bringing up the fact the Nuggets cant win a playoff series if their life depended on it should be fair game.

    107. Frank

      BigBlueAL: Well even though the Knicks won 5 more games than the Pacers during the regular season the fact that they beat the Knicks in 6 games in the playoffs has apparently universally made them a much better team than the Knicks.So bringing up the fact the Nuggets cant win a playoff series if their life depended on it should be fair game.

      +1

      The more I think about it, the more I think the 13-14 Knicks will be better than the 12-13 Knicks. Hopefully that’s enough to get us into the ECFs. It’ll be close because there’s no doubt Chicago should be better with Rose and brooklyn will be very tough. I will be quite surprised if we are not a top 4 seed.

    108. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey: but he did play his bigs, did you not read that post?

      He reduced Koufos’s minutes by five per-game and increased McGee’s by 0.6/G. This means five minutes of taking away Koufos’s higher efficiency and replacing it with…?

    109. BigBlueAL

      Hey I totally agree that a small sample size like a playoff series isnt a true indicator on how good a team really is. But its tiring reading about how great the Nuggets are since the Melo trade when they havent gotten out of the 1st round since. The Knicks had a great regular season and won 6 playoff games but they arent that good yet the Nuggets are still great its just their coach who screwed them in the playoffs?? Bullshit.

    110. Juany8

      domiknick:
      Please correct me if I’m wrong but, I think another way to say what DRed is positing is, had Koufos and McGee played even more minutes in the regular season, they would have finished with more wins than the 57 they actually finished with.

      Juany8 and jon abbey, I’m assuming, would disagree with that result?

      I’d say that I don’t really know for sure, they might have or they might not. Nobody really knows, regardless of what they’ll tell you. So to assume Denver would have benefited from going big is pure conjecture. Furthermore, what’s getting lost in all this, is that WP says David lee should have been a big loss, not a benefit for the team. So while I get Jon arguing that David lee was a loss, for DRed and THCJ to do so would mean to defy WP anyways. A humorous, but underrated part of this discussion. As is the fact that golden state went right back to playing big against San Antonio. Their awesome small ball lineup didnt last long lol.

      Of course to be fair, DRed’s argument is a bit more nuanced, and I do admit that a better coach might have played Denver’s bigs, resulting in some favorable matchups. I disagree with his conclusion, however, because Denver was a team with shitty spacing who was getting killed by 3 point shooting on the other end. The answer to this problem is very rarely to go big, particularly when none of your options are going to be posting people up or spacing the floor.

      Furthermore, the original argument is that Denver was supposed to be a contender according to WP. They couldn’t even beat golden state, how were they suddenly going to have a chance against San Antonio, OKC, Memphis, Miami, etc? It would be like a Dallas fan arguing their 67 win 2007 team was awesome lol.

    111. Mike Kurylo Post author

      BigBlueAL:
      Hey I totally agree that a small sample size like a playoff series isnt a true indicator on how good a team really is.But its tiring reading about how great the Nuggets are since the Melo trade when they havent gotten out of the 1st round since.The Knicks had a great regular season and won 6 playoff games but they arent that good yet the Nuggets are still great its just their coach who screwed them in the playoffs?? Bullshit.

      You’d expect two teams with similar strength to do about the same in the playoffs. But if one happens to go further in the playoffs it doesn’t necessarily prove that it was superior. Yes winning is the name of the game (esp. in the playoffs) but that would be a foolish way to go about business if your a front office person. How many teams get lucky in the playoffs, and therefore ignore their regular season results and work on that assumption? If you’ve followed the Jets you know exactly what I mean. Grabbing Nugent in the second round, and sticking with Sanchez because he had playoff magic cost the team about 3-4 seasons.

      In other words, it’s better to gauge the strength of your team on their point differential than playoff wins. The 2007 Warriors upset the Mavericks, yet the next year Dallas made the playoffs and Golden State watched from home. Basing a team’s strength on one series is heavily flawed.

    112. jon abbey

      Vecsey’s idea for 3rd point guard of Jamaal Tinsley seems like a good one, also bringing home another local boy.

      also Nate Robinson becomes even a better fit on this team with JR out and then getting back to speed, he could be Melo’s second fiddle high usage guy until JR is ready. can’t we get him some money under the table somehow? here is my new plan:

      Bloomberg is richer than Prokhorov, maybe he can sponsor a city-awarded scholarship to fund a tax credit/giveback: all basketball players playing more than 20 NBA games per year in the borough of Manhattan (fuck you Nets) not only don’t pay income tax, but get a $1M check from the city in addition. FL and TEX are allowed to have no state tax and gain an advantage that way, so this should be legal and would sure help us fill out the back end of the roster… :)

    113. jon abbey

      it is crazy to me to think that another coach would have somehow gotten more than 57 wins out of DEN, especially since it took a while for such a young team to gel and Iguodala to fully fit in. they started off 9-10 (13 of those on the road), and from there went 48-15 (62.4 win pace in a full season).

      they beat every other top team in the West in the season series, they were positioned really well going into the playoffs, #3 seed and red hot. Gallinari going out hurt a lot but also their massive home court advantage seems to be a lot less when the other team can get acclimatized, it’s not an accident that GS ran by them in their second straight game there, also DEN had bad luck in drawing a team with even younger athletes than them.

    114. nicos

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: He reduced Koufos’s minutes by five per-game and increased McGee’s by 0.6/G. This means five minutes of taking away Koufos’s higher efficiency and replacing it with…?

      Koufas was beyond awful in that series (-43 over the course of the series) so Karl wasn’t exactly out of his mind not to play him. I’m not sure how you argue that playing him more would have helped

    115. nicos

      Even if you accept that WP is the most valuable general statistic, you can’t apply it to every single specific situation. Koufus is a nice player but he got pnr’ed to death by Golden State (exacerbated by Lawson’s crappy defense but still). Over the course of the season that stuff balances out but with Golden State going small and having multiple guys able to run the pnr there was no way to hide him in this series and he doesn’t have the kind of offensive game to generate enough usage to make it up on the other end. Just because someone’s wp is higher than another player’s doesn’t mean he’s a better fit in every single situation.

    116. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Also, let’s be real: a team shooting 64% on 3PA is a fucking joke. That’s video-game-on-Rookie-mode shit. You can watch highlight videos of the All-Star Three-Point Shootout and find guys who can’t put up those numbers with no one guarding them.

      Trying to attribute that kind of shooting to poor defense alone is just silly.

    117. nicos

      Agreed but acting like a coach shouldn’t adjust his rotations to try to slow them down is silly too. You can’t just rely on the law of averages in a short series- Golden was able to attack Koufus successfully throughout the series (again -43) so how can you argue that Karl was a fool not to give him more playing time?

    118. jon abbey

      this is the difference between the regular season and the playoffs (kind of what Mike is saying, I think): the regular season is an average of how you do against everyone but the playoffs are of course very specific matchups. WP advocates pretty much always advocate going bigger, but in today’s NBA I’m almost certain that is successful decidedly less than half the time. matchups are why NY couldn’t touch Chicago and Houston in the regular season last year (Noah and Asik dominated Chandler on both ends), but why they would have had a reasonable chance against Miami if they’d actually gotten to them and been healthy.

      so yeah, playoff success often has a huge degree of luck, SA this year is a great example. they drop into the #2 seed at the end and end up in a much easier half of the West (MEM/OKC/LAC/HOU all on the other side), and then Westbrook goes down. PHI the year before had Rose and then Noah go down to get by CHI after looking like a bad lottery team down the stretch of the regular season. that doesn’t mean we can’t learn a lot from a series a lot of the time, though.

    119. Juany8

      Mike Kurylo: You’d expect two teams with similar strength to do about the same in the playoffs. But if one happens to go further in the playoffs it doesn’t necessarily prove that it was superior. Yes winning is the name of the game (esp. in the playoffs) but that would be a foolish way to go about business if your a front office person. How many teams get lucky in the playoffs, and therefore ignore their regular season results and work on that assumption? If you’ve followed the Jets you know exactly what I mean. Grabbing Nugent in the second round, and sticking with Sanchez because he had playoff magic cost the team about 3-4 seasons.

      In other words, it’s better to gauge the strength of your team on their point differential than playoff wins. The 2007 Warriors upset the Mavericks, yet the next year Dallas made the playoffs and Golden State watched from home. Basing a team’s strength on one series is heavily flawed.

      Saying Dallas was a better team than the warriors is ok, saying they were a favorite to win the title is not. My point continues to be that the nuggets were not contenders, and contenders simply don’t lose in the first round to good but not great teams. Not the first time a team has performed vastly different in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. So maybe Denver is equal, or even a little better than golden state. Congrats, that was the 6th seed in the west last year, and had the worst differential of all the western playoff teams. And they lost their only all star, a player who nobody thought they would benefit from losing ahead of time.

    120. Juany8

      Considering Denver has lost to a team with a worse differential for 3 years in a row in the playoffs, it is not that hard to mentally adjust their regular season performance down a little bit. People get too rigid about using numbers, there’s no reason you can’t start with a base model like even WP and make smart adjustments based on known issues with the numbers. Same with Boston up until this year, they had a lead in the 4th quarter of the finals a during a year in which they were the 4th seed and placed behind the Atlanta hawks.

    121. Frank O.

      lavor postell: Was last year really that bad?We won the division for the first time since 1994.We won 54 games.We beat a hated rival in the first round and exorcised some demons in doing so.We lost to a very good Pacers team that took the champion Heat. who have added nothing significant to their roster yet this offseason, to 7 games.

      We won the season series against Miami, swept San Antonio, won a memorable game in OKC with the a banged up Tyson Chandler platooning the center position with a banged up KMart and Copeland.We finished our regular season with a very memorable flourish and clinched the 2 seed.

      Was I pissed when we lost to Indiana because Woodson decided that the corpse of Jason Kidd and JR Smith should be allowed maximum game time over Copeland who was giving us some nice complementary scoring?Absolute.Maybe if Hibbert didn’t magically get treated like the next coming of Kareem Abdul Jabbar while Chandler simultaneously was physiclly incapable of competing against him the outcome may have been different as well.

      I mean maybe people are happier just being pissed about the end result, but we actually did accomplish some positive things last season without obtaining the ultimate prize.We will be able to reshuffle the deck in 2 years with our last remaining outstanding asset owed a 2016 first rounder with JR Smith, THJ and Felton definitely under contract for around $10 million.I just have a really hard time getting super worked up about this when I figured this was the reality once we traded the majority of our remaining assets for Melo.

      Nice post. It was a good year. It’s ridiculous to think otherwise. A few things break differently and the playoffs go even better.
      Most teams most years don’t win a championship. It’s been to long for the Knicks, but last year was good progress.

    122. Frank O.

      Frank:
      @90 – this site is literally ground zero for the “grass is greener” mentality.It’s so much easier to criticize a result than to create that result.

      Seriously…it’s like the entire board went hormonal at once.

    123. Z-man

      nicos:
      Agreed but acting like a coach shouldn’t adjust his rotations to try to slow them down is silly too.You can’t just rely on the law of averages in a short series- Golden was able to attack Koufus successfully throughout the series (again -43) so how can you argue that Karl was a fool not to give him more playing time?

      Right on, nicos.

    124. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Also, let’s be real: a team shooting 64% on 3PA is a fucking joke. That’s video-game-on-Rookie-mode shit. You can watch highlight videos of the All-Star Three-Point Shootout and find guys who can’t put up those numbers with no one guarding them.

      Trying to attribute that kind of shooting to poor defense alone is just silly.

      I knew it was only a matter of time before we were regaled with the ol’ outlier defense.

    125. lavor postell

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Also, let’s be real: a team shooting 64% on 3PA is a fucking joke. That’s video-game-on-Rookie-mode shit. You can watch highlight videos of the All-Star Three-Point Shootout and find guys who can’t put up those numbers with no one guarding them.

      Trying to attribute that kind of shooting to poor defense alone is just silly.

      Right but if you suck at defending the pick and roll, which was a major complaint of many Nuggets posters throughout the season, the likelihood of getting scorched like that increases. This is why the Knicks consistently got murdered by Curry and the rest of the Dubs’ crew this year. I don’t remember anybody giving Felton a pass even though Curry nailed his faire share of pull up threes a few feet behind the arc. Obviously Curry was lights out but our inability to corral any kind of adequate point guard is why we got burned so often, not just because every team made a disproportionate amount of threes as compared to their average.

    126. Brian Cronin

      Saying Dallas was a better team than the warriors is ok, saying they were a favorite to win the title is not. My point continues to be that the nuggets were not contenders, and contenders simply don’t lose in the first round to good but not great teams.

      The Spurs won 61 games and lost to a good but not great team in the first round and then brought back the same basic team and went to the Western Conference Finals the next year. So they went from not being contenders to being contenders without changing. I think you’re attributing way too much retrospective reasoning. The Spurs weren’t a contender then, the Mavericks weren’t a contender when they won 55 games and lost in the first round but they were a contender the next year when they won 57 games and the NBA title? It’s a meaningless distinction. As a Rockets fan, you could have “predicted” that the Rockets were going to lose in the first round every year because they kept losing in the first round, but there would be no real logic behind such a prediction. There was nothing inherent in those Rocket teams that made them bad playoff teams and there is nothing inherent in the Nuggets (both with Melo and without him) that make them a bad playoff team (besides injuries to key players, of course, which they suffered both with Melo and without). Good teams win a lot of games. Sometimes they then don’t do well in the playoffs. Sometimes they do. There is no rhyme or reason to it. I recall the 2012 playoffs, I know that no one here gave the #3 seed Mavs any chance, mostly because the #2 seed Mavs the previous year also lost in the first round. None of it is really logical.

    127. yellowboy90

      Jr deal is only 3yrs not 4? Interesting if true. I didn’t mind either way but why not correct the reports that said the deal was 4 yrs?

    128. jon abbey

      Brian, I think you’re very much overstating the case. just because it’s not always logical doesn’t mean it never is, or even most of the time. the better team usually wins a seven game series in the NBA, even if it’s not always the team we thought was better at the start. what you’re saying is a lot more true for the MLB postseason than the NBA, IMO anyway. for every 2011 Dallas and 2004 Detroit, there are a lot of Jordan Bulls and Shaq/Kobe Lakers and current Heat, teams that are favored all season and go on to win repeatedly.

    129. Juany8

      Brian Cronin: The Spurs won 61 games and lost to a good but not great team in the first round and then brought back the same basic team and went to the Western Conference Finals the next year. So they went from not being contenders to being contenders without changing. I think you’re attributing way too much retrospective reasoning. The Spurs weren’t a contender then, the Mavericks weren’t a contender when they won 55 games and lost in the first round but they were a contender the next year when they won 57 games and the NBA title? It’s a meaningless distinction. As a Rockets fan, you could have “predicted” that the Rockets were going to lose in the first round every year because they kept losing in the first round, but there would be no real logic behind such a prediction. There was nothing inherent in those Rocket teams that made them bad playoff teams and there is nothing inherent in the Nuggets (both with Melo and without him) that make them a bad playoff team (besides injuries to key players, of course, which they suffered both with Melo and without). Good teams win a lot of games. Sometimes they then don’t do well in the playoffs. Sometimes they do. There is no rhyme or reason to it. I recall the 2012 playoffs, I know that no one here gave the #3 seed Mavs any chance, mostly because the #2 seed Mavs the previous year also lost in the first round. None of it is really logical.

      Spurs traded George hill for Leonard and added Tiago splitter. It was a pretty big change.

    130. Juany8

      Not to mention Dallas added Tyson chandler, and the nuggets aren’t always going to lose, they’re just generally going to be overrated by their team’s record. Rockets were losing in the first round every year because of injuries back in the day, and their players were injury prone, which is why it kept coming true. Now it has nothing to do with this team.

      So the nuggets will continue to be overrated by their regular season record because of their built in home court advantage, but now that Karl is gone they won’t be playing wacky lineups and relying on sheer speed to win (maybe). It’s not hind sight when you find an observable pattern, the Knicks went from being jokes with the Melo-Amare-chandler core to being a good team not because “Melo learned to share” but because they replaced a bunch of terrible NBA players with a bunch of solid ones. Miami went from losing to Dallas the first year to winning the past 2 championships in large part because Lebron didn’t shit the floor in the finals (shot like 40% for the first 2 finals he played)

      There is obviously some luck involved, but not so much so that we can disregard the results as meaningless. You can’t predict for sure Miami was going to win the title, but you can predict they’re serious favorites. You can analyze previous patterns and do your best to predict the future based on that information. Generally when teams go from losing in the first round to even making the finals, there were either big breaks involved or significant changes to the roster. All the examples you listed above could be pretty easily explained by logic. Still stand by my statement that teams that lose in the first round aren’t going to suddenly go to the finals if you replayed the same season, and the fact that the nuggets, 2007 mavericks, and 2011 spurs made serious shake ups immediately after losing reinforces my point. Exceptions for major injuries of course

    131. EB

      Brian Cronin: As a Rockets fan, you could have “predicted” that the Rockets were going to lose in the first round every year because they kept losing in the first round, but there would be no real logic behind such a prediction. There was nothing inherent in those Rocket teams that made them bad playoff teams and there is nothing inherent in the Nuggets (both with Melo and without him) that make them a bad playoff team

      The Rockets is a bad example as the injury prone superstars they had is a very inherent flaw. Some teams certainly have inherent flaws when it comes to the playoffs. Teams start adjusting to what a specific opponent does, so if they only do one thing they will struggle. If the Nuggets can’t adjust to a plan centered around beating them then they are seriously, inherently flawed. That said, replacing Gallo with Wilson Chandler likely had more to do with their struggles.

    132. Brian Cronin

      Spurs traded George hill for Leonard and added Tiago splitter. It was a pretty big change.

      Leonard helped them this year, to be sure, which is why I didn’t mention the squad that went to the NBA Finals, as he is a major factor on that team so that was a major difference, but he wasn’t a major factor last year in the playoffs. Their biggest improvement was that they didn’t face off against Memphis in last year’s playoffs.

      Just like the Rockets and Nuggets’ biggest weakness for years was that they played really good teams in the first round.

    133. Brian Cronin

      So JR’s contract is only 3 yrs and the 3rd yr is the player option?? Very interesting:

      http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/17/sports/basketball/smiths-knee-surgery-does-not-surprise-the-knicks-who-are-investing-less.html?smid=tw-share

      Before the offseason began, we discussed how it was unlikely for JR to even want a four-year deal, since he’d be able to get full Bird Rights if he just signed for two more years and then had a third-year player option just in case. And that’s exactly what happened? Bizarre. How did that slip by every reporter?

    134. Brian Cronin

      Brian, I think you’re very much overstating the case. just because it’s not always logical doesn’t mean it never is, or even most of the time. the better team usually wins a seven game series in the NBA, even if it’s not always the team we thought was better at the start. what you’re saying is a lot more true for the MLB postseason than the NBA, IMO anyway. for every 2011 Dallas and 2004 Detroit, there are a lot of Jordan Bulls and Shaq/Kobe Lakers and current Heat, teams that are favored all season and go on to win repeatedly.

      In the last ten years, the team with the best or second best record in the NBA has won the title: 4 times
      In the last ten years, the teams with the best or second best record in MLB has won the title: 3 times (not once since 2009).

      When you expand to top three records, the difference is basically the same (I think they each add 2 more teams).

      But yes, there was definitely a period there where there was less parity in the NBA. Basically when Bird and Magic retired and Jordan was by himself for a while. And we could be headed that way with the Heat, but that remains to be seen, of course.

    135. Z

      Brian Cronin: How did that slip by every reporter?

      It seems to have slipped by Grunwald, too.

      “We’re pretty comfortable that this is something that’s fixable and won’t present any problems, in certainly the foreseeable future, over the next four years or whatever,” he said.

      Weird.

    136. BigBlueAL

      Just saw this thanks to Twitter. According to Stephen A. Smith Dolan was thinking about trading Shump because he didnt want to play Summer League. Its mentioned right at the beginning of the video (SAS is interviewing Dwight Howard and they are talking off air when SAS mentions this). Hilarious seeing SAS shake his head when he mentions this:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3__nJPp1ak

    137. BigBlueAL

      Also I know some here have mentioned Bobby Brown (a Euro League PG) as someone the Knicks should look at. According to Jared Zwerling he worked out with the Knicks in Vegas and might be an option for them.

    138. Brian Cronin

      Holy mother effing shit, is that for fucking real? How insane do you have to be to have that opinion on Shump? What the fuckety fuck is wrong with Dolan to think that? I hope it was, like, some bizarre joke or something.

    139. massive

      So JR Smith thinks it’s a good idea to opt out in the summer of 2015? I think someone at CAA told Melo to be patient and compete with the team he has now, and that in 2015 the Knicks will deliver him Rajon Rondo and his choice of bigs between Love, Bynum, Gasol, Lopez, and Aldridge. We have a bunch of space that summer.

      And seriously, fuck James Dolan for being the douche he is. You want to trade Shump over Summer League? What a moron.

    140. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin: In the last ten years, the team with the best or second best record in the NBA has won the title: 4 times
      In the last ten years, the teams with the best or second best record in MLB has won the title: 3 times (not once since 2009).

      this isn’t a great comparison, as there’s often a pacing factor in the NBA regular season (Popovich does it the most, but Miami did it a ton at the end of this year too), and on the flip side you have a team like Chicago that goes too hard in the regular season, leaving them burnt out and hurt by playoff time. it’s much less frequent in MLB.

    141. jon abbey

      the best players/teams have another gear for the playoffs, like when David Robinson won MVP only to be abused head to head by Hakeem in the playoffs, same with Derrick Rose/LeBron in 2011.

    142. yellowboy90

      Really Sas, that would be nice. smh. also, Howard was quick to move Harden to the 1 to make room for Shump.

    143. BigBlueAL

      yellowboy90:
      Really Sas, that would be nice. smh. also, Howard was quick to move Harden to the 1 to make room for Shump.

      Yeah, guess he prefers Shump to Lin lol.

    144. Brian Cronin

      this isn’t a great comparison, as there’s often a pacing factor in the NBA regular season (Popovich does it the most, but Miami did it a ton at the end of this year too), and on the flip side you have a team like Chicago that goes too hard in the regular season, leaving them burnt out and hurt by playoff time. it’s much less frequent in MLB.

      The same thing happens in the MLB. You have a five man starting rotation in the regular season and roughly a three-man rotation in the playoffs, plus your closer and your best set-up men pitch every game and your back-ups never play (especially noticeable with back-up catchers, who never play during the postseason – and yet Bobby Cox insisted on carrying three catchers for years before he realized how stupid it was after a decade or so).

    145. Brian Cronin

      What was the point of that interview? Was it SAS asking what players Howard would like on the Rockets? if so, did he seriously, of all the players over 27, single out David fucking West for some reason?

    146. BigBlueAL

      Difference in MLB though is the regular season is actually important. Up until last season only 8 out of 30 teams made the playoffs. Still now 10 out of 30 (if you want to call losing the WC game still making the playoffs) is a big difference compared to 16 out of 30.

    147. yellowboy90

      so what does Brown mean for Murry? Would it be overkill to add both or is Murry shump’s replacement.lol. Wait I shouldn’t joke about things so stupid that could come true.

    148. BigBlueAL

      Brian Cronin:
      What was the point of that interview? Was it SAS asking what players Howard would like on the Rockets? if so, did he seriously, of all the players over 27, single out David fucking West for some reason?

      I think the point was they were talking about last season only 1 team had only 1 player older than 27 and that was the Pacers with West being that player and I guess the Knicks were the opposite with only having 1 player younger than 27 which was Shump. I assume that was what they were talking about.

    149. yellowboy90

      Brian Cronin:
      What was the point of that interview? Was it SAS asking what players Howard would like on the Rockets? if so, did he seriously, of all the players over 27, single out David fucking West for some reason?

      I think the convo must have been about how the knicks didn’t have anyone young and the pacers only had 1 guy in his 30s. Probably talking about the changes in the eastern conference.

    150. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin: The same thing happens in the MLB. You have a five man starting rotation in the regular season and roughly a three-man rotation in the playoffs, plus your closer and your best set-up men pitch every game and your back-ups never play (especially noticeable with back-up catchers, who never play during the postseason – and yet Bobby Cox insisted on carrying three catchers for years before he realized how stupid it was after a decade or so).

      no, that’s totally different from what I’m talking about. that is the rough equivalent to shortening rotations in the NBA and playing stars more minutes, that happens also.

      what I’m talking about is how Charles Barkley used to refer to the regular season as the preseason, there is more coasting by the top players and top teams during the regular season, in part because more teams making the playoffs allows more of that, in part because the better team wins a NBA game more often than they do a MLB game. for instance, Miami started slow this year and people talked about how they were worse, when in fact it quickly became clear that they were having trouble motivating. once they started, they won 27 in a row. after their winning streak ended, they went back to sitting their guys and barely trying until the playoffs.

    151. BigBlueAL

      Also looks like the Knicks play the Heat at 10pm in the Summer League playoffs. Knicks finally get their shot at the Heat in the playoffs lol.

    152. Brian Cronin

      I think the point was they were talking about last season only 1 team had only 1 player older than 27 and that was the Pacers with West being that player and I guess the Knicks were the opposite with only having 1 player younger than 27 which was Shump. I assume that was what they were talking about.

      Oh phew, okay, gotcha. Yeah, that’s a really weird thing about that series.

    153. Brian Cronin

      no, that’s totally different from what I’m talking about. that is the rough equivalent to shortening rotations in the NBA and playing stars more minutes, that happens also.

      what I’m talking about is how Charles Barkley used to refer to the regular season as the preseason, there is more coasting by the top players and top teams during the regular season, in part because more teams making the playoffs allows more of that, in part because the better team wins a NBA game more often than they do a MLB game. for instance, Miami started slow this year and people talked about how they were worse, when in fact it quickly became clear that they were having trouble motivating. once they started, they won 27 in a row. after their winning streak ended, they went back to sitting their guys and barely trying until the playoffs.

      I disagree that playing your starters bigger minutes is akin to going with three starters instead of five, with your top 2 starters potentially pitching six of the seven games in a series. The baseball example is just as transformative as an NBA team deciding to put their whole ass into thing and it is how the San Francisco Giants are able to do so well in the playoffs while not exactly dominating in the regular season.

      Buy anyhow, in the NBA, the best regular season teams are the ones who win the championships. Note that in NBA history, only two seeds below #3 have won an NBA title (one #4 seed in 1969 and one #6 seed in 1995, and the latter team got Clyde Drexler for Otis freakin’ Thorpe at the trade deadline, so their record was misleading). Only seven teams below the #3 seed have even made it to the NBA Finals and one of them was due to a since-changed NBA rule about the three division winners being guaranteed the top three seeds.

      The best regular season teams are the best teams in the playoffs, as well. Except sometimes one of the best teams gets upset. Then some other year, they don’t get upset. The only rhyme or reason to it all is “You really ought to be one of the best three teams in your conference if you want to win a title – or hope for Russell Westbrook to get hurt”

    154. jon abbey

      first of all, when was the last time two starters pitched six times in a series? that didn’t even happen in the 2001 WS with Schilling/Johnson, you might have to go back to Koufax/Drysdale or something.

      and your second and third paragraph totally contradict each other, I’m not sure what else to say here. a postseason MLB series is way more random than an NBA one, the better team wins NBA ones far more often than they do in MLB. there is a ton of ‘rhyme and reason’ to it and far less luck than you seem to be saying.

    155. Brian Cronin

      I’m saying that a 61 win team is a title contender, whether they lose in the first round to a #8 seed or not.

    156. BigBlueAL

      Most teams dont go to a 3-man rotation in the playoffs though. The 2009 Yankees used only 3 SP’s for the entire postseason and that was a pretty big deal because it hadnt been done in forever, especially during the Wild Card era. Teams will use only 3 occasionally in the Division series but rarely will they do so also in the LCS and WS. Even Arizona in 2001 used 4 SP’s in every series including the WS. Schilling started on 3 days rest twice in the WS but Randy Johnson didnt. Brian Anderson and Miguel Batista started Games 3 and 5.

    157. Brian Cronin

      Randy Johnson didn’t start on 3 days rest, but he pitched in three of the 7 games, including Game 7 on no day’s rest. Something he’d never do in the regular season.

    158. jon abbey

      BigBlueAL:
      Most teams dont go to a 3-man rotation in the playoffs though.The 2009 Yankees used only 3 SP’s for the entire postseason and that was a pretty big deal because it hadnt been done in forever, especially during the Wild Card era.Teams will use only 3 occasionally in the Division series but rarely will they do so also in the LCS and WS.Even Arizona in 2001 used 4 SP’s in every series including the WS.Schilling started on 3 days rest twice in the WS but Randy Johnson didnt.Brian Anderson and Miguel Batista started Games 3 and 5.

      the 2009 Yankees could only do that because of all the off days, I don’t think you can do that anymore. even still, no one even pitched three times in a series, because the ALCS and WS both ended in six.

    159. Brian Cronin

      Teams can still do it, depending on the off days. It wasn’t an option for the Yankees the past two years, but it was an option for the Tigers and A’s in the first round. They just each chose not to do it, primarily because Verlander doesn’t like doing it.

    160. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin:
      I’m saying that a 61 win team is a title contender, whether they lose in the first round to a #8 seed or not.

      most of the time I’d say that’s correct, but a handful of exceptions don’t equal randomness and chaos.

      and actually that GS #8 seed won in a very similar way to how GS beat DEN this year: steal one of the first two on the road and rely on a fantastic home crowd to win their three home games.

    161. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin:
      Teams can still do it, depending on the off days. It wasn’t an option for the Yankees the past two years, but it was an option for the Tigers and A’s in the first round. They just each chose not to do it, primarily because Verlander doesn’t like doing it.

      it’s more than he doesn’t like doing it, I’m pretty sure he’s never pitched on three days rest even once in his entire MLB career.

    162. Brian Cronin

      it’s more than he doesn’t like doing it, I’m pretty sure he’s never pitched on three days rest even once in his entire MLB career.

      Because he doesn’t like doing it.

    163. BigBlueAL

      Brian Cronin:
      I’m saying that a 61 win team is a title contender, whether they lose in the first round to a #8 seed or not.

      Totally agree, the point I initially brought up was really just talking about how the national media considers the Pacers to be clearly better than the Knicks strictly based on them beating them in the playoffs (completely ignoring the regular season). Hell many make it seem like they freaking swept the Knicks ignoring the fact that the series went 6 games and both teams actually scored the same amount of points. Yet the Knicks beat the Celtics in 6 and they “struggled” to beat them when they outscored the Celtics by 32 points for the series and were up 3-0 and the Celtics needed OT (and JR missing the game) just to avoid a sweep.

      You can certainly argue that the Pacers are better than the Knicks but it seems universally accepted that its no contest between them. Thats b.s.

    164. Brian Cronin

      Definitely agreed, Al. But even there, the Pacers were at least one of the three best teams in their conference, ya know?

    165. jon abbey

      the Tigers or A’s would have had to keep using all three guys on three days rest throughout the ALCS also, I don’t think any team has done this in decades.

      the Yankees only got away with it in 2009 because of the inexplicable off day between games 4 and 5 of the ALCS which allowed them to keep Burnett on full rest for game 5. Burnett and Pettitte didn’t have to go on 3 days rest until games 5 and 6 of the WS, Burnett got shelled and Pettitte came through.

    166. Brian Cronin

      most of the time I’d say that’s correct, but a handful of exceptions don’t equal randomness and chaos.

      I mean, obviously there are some very notable exceptions based on injuries or players not being available until the playoffs (often the same thing), but I think when there isn’t any plainly stated exception it is pretty much randomness. Like one team just matching up really well against another (Grizzlies/Spurs) or another team just going cold out of nowhere (Sonics/Nuggets) or whatever.

    167. BigBlueAL

      Brian Cronin: Because he doesn’t like doing it.

      No SP in baseball likes doing it. The stats for SP’s who start on 3 days rest in the playoffs were pretty horrible there for awhile, dunno if the trend has changed recently (dunno who has even done it since the 2009 Yankees to be honest). Torre tried to do it in the 2000 ALDS and it almost cost them the series because Clemens and Pettitte pitched horribly in Games 4 and 5 on 3 days rest.

      Most managers now are afraid to do it even with their aces. Most SP’s arent like CC who basically demanded to do it and has a track record of doing it well dating back to his final month with the Brewers in 2008.

    168. jon abbey

      I think the Pacers are clearly better than the Knicks right now also, in fact I’d call them the current favorites to win the East, depending on Wade’s health. they’re young, they’re mostly getting better, and they’ve got another year with the core together. if Granger can fit in and Stephenson keeps improving and Hibbert stays the guy he was in the postseason, they’re the current faves to me. NY has way more questions right now, I don’t even think it’s close.

    169. Brian Cronin

      I just got an Amber alert on my cellphone. Are they doing that now? Am I seriously getting an alarm going off on my cell phone at nearly 4am to tell me about a missing kid somewhere in Manhattan? Is this real life?

    170. Brian Cronin

      I think the Pacers are clearly better than the Knicks right now also, in fact I’d call them the current favorites to win the East, depending on Wade’s health. they’re young, they’re mostly getting better, and they’ve got another year with the core together. if Granger can fit in and Stephenson keeps improving and Hibbert stays the guy he was in the postseason, they’re the current faves to me. NY has way more questions right now, I don’t even think it’s close.

      Yeah, I don’t think that’s unfair. Indiana and Chicago should each likely be considered better than the Knicks going into next season (provided Rose actually shows he is ready to play). But if the Knicks end the season with 57 wins and the Pacers 48 or something like that, the odds will be that the Knicks ended the season as the better team overall.

    171. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin: I mean, obviously there are some very notable exceptions based on injuries or players not being available until the playoffs (often the same thing), but I think when there isn’t any plainly stated exception it is pretty much randomness. Like one team just matching up really well against another (Grizzlies/Spurs) or another team just going cold out of nowhere (Sonics/Nuggets) or whatever.

      the higher seeded team wins 75 or 80 percent of the series, how is that anywhere near random? I am sorry for not letting this go, but I really don’t get your perspective here.

    172. Brian Cronin

      No SP in baseball likes doing it.

      But as Jon notes, he doesn’t like doing it so much that he’s never let them do it to him in his career. Which is kind of weird. You figure a guy should at least give it a shot once if he’s asked, no?

    173. Brian Cronin

      the higher seeded team wins 75 or 80 percent of the series, how is that anywhere near random? I am sorry for not letting this go, but I really don’t get your perspective here.

      Right, so I’m saying that the 20-25% of the time is (if there is no other major exception, like an injury to Westbrook) random bad luck. And that’s just the first round, right? I find it hard to believe that #2 seeds win 75% of their series against #3 seeds.

    174. BigBlueAL

      Brian Cronin:
      Definitely agreed, Al. But even there, the Pacers were at least one of the three best teams in their conference, ya know?

      Of course, but everyone seems to completely disregard the Knicks winning 54 games and finishing 2nd in their conference.

      Im not disregarding the Pacers, hell I wasnt even that upset because the Knicks lost to a pretty good Pacers team. But it is so easy it seems for the media (and people on this site) to easily dismiss the success the Knicks had last year but continue to praise teams like the Nuggets. Thats annoying.

    175. Brian Cronin

      Oh agreed. I think the Knicks should definitely be praised for their season. As you note, I think it should just be treated the same way. The Knicks were legit contenders, as were the Nuggets. Well, until Gallo got hurt. That obviously gave them little real shot of contending. Same with the Thunder when Westbrook went down.

    176. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin: But as Jon notes, he doesn’t like doing it so much that he’s never let them do it to him in his career. Which is kind of weird. You figure a guy should at least give it a shot once if he’s asked, no?

      Leyland won’t ask him, going on 3 days rest is hard. Cliff Lee also has never done it, even when he was crushing people in the playoffs in 2009 and 2010.

    177. jon abbey

      Brian Cronin: Right, so I’m saying that the 20-25% of the time is (if there is no other major exception, like an injury to Westbrook) random bad luck. And that’s just the first round, right? I find it hard to believe that #2 seeds win 75% of their series against #3 seeds.

      it’s overall, all four rounds combined.

      I agree there’s some luck involved (Houston’s bouncer to beat Miami in the Van Gundy days, or even this year’s Finals game 6), but running into a bad matchup like DAL did with GS back in the day or DEN did with GS this year is partly luck but also partly a weakness in the better team for not being able to adjust to that matchup. NY didn’t seem like they would have beaten CHI this year if they’d played 50 times, so their overall regular season records wouldn’t have mattered if they played each other.

    178. BigBlueAL

      Yeah, going on 3 days rest isnt as simple a plan to use in the playoffs as Brian is making it out to be. Its an option yes but it is rarely used and when it has happened it has by no means guaranteed success.

    179. BigBlueAL

      1999 deserves an asterisk because of the 50 game schedule. I mean the Knicks were the 8th seed but finished only 6 games behind the 1st seed Heat.

    180. jon abbey

      also I agree that the Knicks were legit albeit pretty long shot contenders this past year, if a whole lot of things had broken right. I doubt they will get as close this year, honestly, but that’s a long long long long way away still.

    181. Brian Cronin

      I agree there’s some luck involved (Houston’s bouncer to beat Miami in the Van Gundy days, or even this year’s Finals game 6), but running into a bad matchup like DAL did with GS back in the day or DEN did with GS this year is partly luck but also partly a weakness in the better team for not being able to adjust to that matchup. NY didn’t seem like they would have beaten CHI this year if they’d played 50 times, so their overall regular season records wouldn’t have mattered if they played each other.

      I suppose I just think luck is a bigger factor than you. Like Charles Smith not making that layup in 1993. I think that that was just bad luck more than anything. Or Ewing missing the finger roll in 95. Or Duncan missing the shot in Game 7 this year. Or the rebound bouncing just the right way on the first Lebron three miss that allowed Wade to make the play and get Lebron another look in Game 6 to cut the lead to two.

      I think if the 2011 Spurs play the 2011 Grizzlies in ten series, I think the Spurs win six of them. Same with the 2007 Mavericks and 2007 Warriors (heck, there I think the Mavs likely win seven out of ten). I think the 1993 Knicks would split ten series with the 1993 Bulls. The 2007 Mavericks brought back the same team that nearly won the title the previous year and they lost to the #8 seed? I don’t think that’s a sign of a problem with their team, I think it was just bad luck. Same with the Sonics in 1994.

      also I agree that the Knicks were legit albeit pretty long shot contenders this past year, if a whole lot of things had broken right. I doubt they will get as close this year, honestly, but that’s a long long long long way away still.

      I agree that the Knicks were longshot contenders, as were the Pacers and the Nuggets (in this strange instance, when the #5 seed was just 2 wins behind the #2 seed and 4 wins behind the #1, I think I’d throw in the Grizzlies and the Clippers as longshot contenders, as well). The favorites were the Heat, Spurs and Thunder.

      As for this year, it obviously won’t be as easy since the Pacers and Bulls will be improved and who knows how the Nets will turn out, but the Knicks should still be right there in the thick of it.

    182. johnno

      BigBlueAL: the point I initially brought up was really just talking about how the national media considers the Pacers to be clearly better than the Knicks strictly based on them beating them in the playoffs (completely ignoring the regular season).

      I think that it’s interesting that EVERYONE, including everyone on this site, ignores the fact that the Pacers have been extraordinarily lucky when it comes to injuries the last two years. Except for Granger, they have had virtually no injuries (and a good argument can be made that Granger is duplicative and doesn’t really make them any better). They are due to “regress to the mean” this year and have more injuries than they’ve had in the past.

    183. johnno

      BigBlueAL: So JR’s contract is only 3 yrs and the 3rd yr is the player option?? Very interesting:

      I think that it’s going to be hilarious when JR opts out in two years and everyone on this site is screaming over how stupid the front office is for not locking him up…

    184. johnno

      Brian Cronin: You’re way underselling the absence of Granger.

      No I’m not. He plays the same position as their best player. Losing him was not nearly as big a deal as it would be if they were to lose Hibbert, West or Hill since there is a huge dropoff between them and their replacements.

    185. Brian Cronin

      Sure, but to term that as the Pacers being “extraordinarily lucky when it comes to injuries” is way underselling the absence of Granger.

      “Extraordinarily lucky” would be, you know, not having an All-Star miss the entire season.

      The Heat, for instance, have been extraordinarily lucky when it comes to injuries. Heck, the only time they had sort of bad luck was with Chris Bosh last year and that almost got them eliminated!

    186. Juany8

      Brian, you keep ignoring that every single one of the teams that lost in the first round when they were supposedly contenders made very significant changes the next season. Dallas and the nuggets fired their coach, and the spurs traded half their role players. When Dallas won the championship they added Tyson chandler, saying they only thing that changed is that they went from 55 wins to 57 wins is wildly misleading. By that token I could say that the 94 bulls were only a few wins worse than the 93 bulls, like losing Michael Jordan didnt make a difference.

      So while maybe those teams might have won the first round if they replayed that round, that doesn’t mean they were suddenly a legit threat to win 4 more. The fact that all of those teams admitted as much by making serious changes should prove as much, teams don’t change multiple starters on the team and trade key role players when they think they just had some bad luck. The spurs barely changed at all from last year and are barely changing going into next year, mostly because they see that they were a few bounces away from winning the title both years and had no problem giving the group another shot. You’re not going to see a George hill for Kawhi Leonard level trade, or even the trade that got them Boris diaw and Stephen Jackson.

    187. Brian Cronin

      The 2007 Mavericks did not dramatically change their team or fire their coach. They fired Johnson when they lost in the first round the following year.

      The 1999 Heat made no notable changes (in fact, they very well might not have made a single change – wait, back-up point guard they changed).

      The 1994 Sonics made no notable changes (they made some minor changes when they lost again in the first round the following year).

      The 2011 Spurs added Leonard, but that was not in response to their loss to the Grizzlies, it was because Hill was going to become expensive soon and Leonard was being foolishly underrated by all the other NBA GMs out there so it was a combo of needing to cut some salary while seeing an underrated cost-controlled rookie. Zach Lowe did an extensive piece on the Leonard/Hill trade and I assure you that at no point did they mention the previous year’s loss as a reason for getting Leonard. In fact, they specifically noted that the Spurs were concerned about other small forwards, which wasn’t their problem against the Grizzlies, where they just got manhandled by Randolph and Gasol in the post. And they had been trying to bring Splitter over for a while before finally getting him here. They did not say “We have to blow things up based on this loss,” they just made normal roster changes, the same way they had been doing for years, even when winning (the Spurs revamp their roster constantly).

    188. Juany8

      In other words Brian, I fully agree that one series is not a definitive statement on which of 2 teams is better. But when you’re supposed to be winning 4 series against progressively harder teams, losing in the first round to a decent but not exactly contending opponent is more than bad luck. It would be one thing if a team that lost in the first round kept everything the same and then suddenly went to the finals the next year, but the more common scenario is that the team considers the team flawed in major ways and makes wide scale changes. You can try to minimize those changes by saying that it only resulted in a few changes in regular season wins, but again, Michael Jordan suddenly retiring and leaving the bulls with nothing only cost them like 2 wins. I think we can all agree that the regular season record understates how much of a blow losing Jordan for nothing cost their championship hopes. Just as I think we can all agree that the 2011 mavericks did more to improve their team than their measly 2 win increase would suggest, Tyson chandler wasn’t a minor addition.

    189. Juany8

      Brian, I gotta say that bringing up teams that lost in the first round 2 years in a row does not exactly prove that those teams were contenders the first year they lost in the first round. I’ll admit I forgot about the sonics and that is therefore a correct example, although the first round used to be shorter back then so there was more room for randomness than in a 7 game series.

    190. Juany8

      Also it’s irrelevant why the spurs made those changes in 2011 since they worked so well, Stephen Jackson, Boris diaw, Kawhi Leonard, and splitter all made legit contributions and Danny green started playing for them in 2012. If the Knicks added a bunch of players that good I’d feel much better about their chances of winning next year

    191. Brian Cronin

      You made it relevant by saying that all those teams made significant changes because of their loss. I am saying that they did not. Because they saw their losses as “just” bad luck, as well, and not signs that they needed to dramatically change things.

    192. Juany8

      Brian Cronin:
      You made it relevant by saying that all those teams made significant changes because of their loss. I am saying that they did not. Because they saw their losses as “just” bad luck, as well, and not signs that they needed to dramatically change things.

      Ok fine then I’ll admit I shouldn’t have assumed to know what the front offices were thinking, but it doesn’t change the fact that those teams needed major changes to actually become contenders. The 2008 mavericks losing in the first round kind of suggests that the 2007 mavericks weren’t exactly an awesome team. The 2012 spurs were a completely different team than the 2011 version, other than Duncan Parker and ginobli all their role players were new in the playoffs. Same with the 2011 mavericks and 2010, adding a DPOY candidate isn’t a minor detail.

      So back when the first round was 5 games an underdog did have more of a chance, those extra games make a noticeable difference. Since 2003 though, if you want to go from the first round to even the conference finals from one year to the next, you need serious improvement, it’s not all bad luck.

    193. Juany8

      Also the spurs changed maybe one player in the past 2 offseasons, the constant shaking up of the roster only happened when they won zero second round games for 3 years in a row. Now that they were a bounce away from winning the finals they were happy to pay their players to stay.

    194. johnno

      Brian Cronin: Sure, but to term that as the Pacers being “extraordinarily lucky when it comes to injuries” is way underselling the absence of Granger.
      “Extraordinarily lucky” would be, you know, not having an All-Star miss the entire season.

      Sorry. I think that it is extraordinarily lucky when the only guy who gets injured is replaced by a guy who is a better all-around player, especially when you don’t have good backups for your other important players. Name one other significant guy who has missed more than a few games in the last two years. It would be like Amare missing last year and having Blake Griffin or Kevin Love step in to take his place and Melo, Felton, Chandler, JR, Sheed, Camby, Kurt, etc. not missing more than a couple of games each. How would they be if Granger missed the entire year and West, Hibbert and Hill missed the number of games that Knicks players missed? Probably barely a playoff team, if that.

    195. Juany8

      johnno: Sorry.I think that it is extraordinarily lucky when the only guy who gets injured is replaced by a guy who is a better all-around player, especially when you don’t have good backups for your other important players.Name one other significant guy who has missed more than a few games in the last two years.It would be like Amare missing last year and having Blake Griffin or Kevin Love step in to take his place and Melo, Felton, Chandler, JR, Sheed, Camby, Kurt, etc. not missing more than a couple of games each.How would they be if Granger missedthe entire year and West, Hibbert and Hill missed the number of games that Knicks players missed?Probably barely a playoff team, if that.

      I’d say the pacers missing granger is about the equivalent of the Knicks missing Amare. Both are overrated because of their past, but they’re useful players who would certainly help if healthy. But they need to do so as bench players playing a certain role, not as featured players. I wouldn’t say the pacers were lucky with their injury problems though, just a bit above average. It just looks incredible when you’re used to dealing with the Knicks medical staff and wondering just why JR took 2 months after the playoffs ended to get surgery

    196. johnno

      Juany8: I wouldn’t say the pacers were lucky with their injury problems though, just a bit above average.

      David West missed 9 games. The rest of their top 8 players from last year missed 19 games COMBINED. That is extraordinary health. Aside from Granger, I think that the only team in the league that was healthier was the Thunder. I don’t have the numbers from the year before, but I think were just as good or better.

    197. johnno

      By the way, the total of 28 games missed by their top 8 players includes about 12 that they voluntarily sat out during the last week of the season.

    198. Z

      Didn’t George Hill get injured during the series and miss a crucial game? That’s not an insignificant injury. (…and it was extraordinarily bad-luck too, because of the NBA rule stating he wasn’t allowed to play even if he wanted to man up).

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