I do think I noted most of those issues you did in my original post. And in response to Z-Man, as i said, if i were an owner I probably wouldn’t talk with such nonchalance about blowing things up and destroying attendance. I also agree there is an enormous amount of luck involved in building a successful franchise. At the same time there is a lot of skill.

Look at the production the Spurs are getting from Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Matt Bonner, Boris Diaw, and most of all Tiago Splitter this year.

Also, there is the question of aesthetics. As a fan of both defense and ball movement this just isn’t my cup of tea.

But anyway, I look forward to having egg on my face as the Knicks run off ten straight wins…..

And like so many things (like our ridiculous Congress, for instance), sometimes we should just take the really good and not worry so much about why we don’t have the “perfect”.

It takes an enormous amount of good planning but also an enormous amount of LUCK to become a true contender. IMHO the true contenders are (in no particular order) – SA, LAC, OKC, and Miami. San Antonio had to super-luck into Duncan in the lottery, and wouldn’t even have been in position for that unless Robinson had suffered a season-ending injury. They did a great job drafting Parker/Manu– everyone else on the team has changed but those 3 are the constants. But everything started (and will probably end when he retires) with Duncan, and getting him was a moonshot re: their lottery chances – and not even because they only had a 16% chance of winning the lottery, but because they happened to win it in a year that there was obviously a HoF-level talent at the top.

The Clips also won the lottery despite having a 16% chance and got Blake Griffin, another no-brainer pick. Without Griffin, I’m pretty sure CP3 doesn’t agree to a trade to them.

OKC obviously hit it big with all their picks basically, but what happens if Portland actually listens to their doctors pre-draft and take Durant instead of Oden? As I recall, there were tons of red flags about Oden’s entire bottom half back then.

And Miami just happened to be there for the taking when the Big 3 colluded (almost certainly illegally) to go there. That doesn’t count.

Once LBJ decided to go elsewhere, our chance of a chip within this 4-5 year window was basically <10%. I think we've done about as well as we could have.

On a unrelated note at one point there was talk on the board about how with Melo and Amare’s (and maybe Tyson’s) huge contracts they could not cobble together the rest of a roster and would have to fill it with dregs. Last year with Lin and Novak emerging out of nowhere and JR landing in our laps it seemed to be a moot point. This year though with Carmelo and the guys that can’t do shit on their own much less need to be guarded, having to fill out the roster and count on retired players (Kenyon and Sheed) the chronically injured for 30 games (Camby) and the past their expiration date Kidd and Kurt, do we want to revisit that theory?

I long for the Knicks to play aesthetically pleasing basketball again, but for now, I’m OK with a team that at least can win more than it loses and that has a shot at a long playoff run.

Yep. Heck, like I’ve been saying all season, I just want to see the second round for the first time in twelve years!!

Owen:
Lol, eviscerating us both with one calm, collected post.

I don’t think I am a fool to think that we could have a team that was just as good with a future that was much brighter than it is right now….

And I don’t agree that the Knicks can’t ever get one of those once in a generation players, by trade or free agency. We simply haven’t done a good job of it.

I think you have to see things from the business perspective as well. With the Garden renovation requiring $175 for seats I used to get for $40 just a few years ago, you have to have some big names on the billboard (at least it’s logical to believe that, although winning trumps big names).

Again, this team is only hopelessly capped out for the next 2.5 years. Melo is certainly a trade asset and probably will be for the duration of his contract. Only Amare is grossly overpaid right now.

My biggest gripe (and I am lucky enough to have rooted for the Reed-Frazier Knicks) is the way we play. The Spurs and the hated Celts have played the game the most like the old Knicks for the last 5-6 years. Regardless of w’s and l’s, we play ugly basketball (except for a few games earlier this year and, frankly, during some of the Linsanity games although that wasn’t really sustainable.)

I long for the Knicks to play aesthetically pleasing basketball again, but for now, I’m OK with a team that at least can win more than it loses and that has a shot at a long playoff run.

Owen:

In the spirit of amicability, here is a request. Why did Kidd pass on that shot against Toronto? My memory is that he simply bobbled the pass a bit, or was perhaps trying to one time a pass. I remember a bobble but I am not sure it actually happened. Fire up the Synergy account and take a look, i look forward to reading your reportage in the morning….

Synergy seems to be down at the moment but from what I recall, JR had the ball at the top of the key and passed to a wide open Kidd who didn’t even look at the basket and tossed it back to JR. JR one-timed it back to Kidd a second time who then bobbled it and passed it back once again to JR who then swung it to Melo for a contested (and missed) three.
I’m not sure what the answer is with Kidd- I’d love to give him a couple of weeks off and see if that helps but that won’t happen. Kidd was playing like a legitimate all-star for the first six weeks of the season- if that Kidd showed back up the Knicks would have a much better than a .9% chance of winning a title. I’d rather sit Kidd and go into the playoffs as a 4 or 5 seed (or even 6) with a fresh Kidd than be the 2 or 3 seed with Kidd ineffective. You’re probably still going to have to beat the same teams anyway and an truly effective Kidd is worth as much to me as home court advantage. The problem is there’s no guarantee any amount of rest will really help at his age and he’s almost certainly not going to shoot 60% from three like he did early in the season anyway.

jon abbey:
Kidd has been passing up pretty much every shot possible in recent weeks, and it’s not that he hasn’t been making the spectacular/special passes, it’s that he’s so predictably been making the easy/routine ones that guys are starting to jump the passing lanes on him at times and it’s led to some ugly turnovers.

exactly especially when he is out there playing the pg role