Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Aug 21 2012)

  • [New York Post] Amar’e pumped up after Hakeem visit (Tue, 21 Aug 2012 04:00:59 -0500)
    Forget the defending NBA champion Heat and the retooled Lakers, Amar’e Stoudemire believes the Knicks can be a “top teamâ? this year capable of winning a championship.
    Now that he is fully healthy, the All-Star power forward thinks he and Carmelo Anthony can thrive once they have a full…

  • [New York Times] Knicks’ Amar’e Stoudemire Learns From Hakeem Olajuwon (Tue, 21 Aug 2012 05:48:03 GMT)
    The Knicks’ Amar’e Stoudemire called the results of his low-post crash course with the Hall of Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon phenomenal.

  • 61 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Aug 21 2012)

    1. Gideon Zaga

      How about that Prokorov vs Dolan. Heard there have been some shots fired. Guess the rivalry is really real, as real as the jets and giants which means it doesn’t exist haha

    2. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      So the question of the day:

      ruruland, are you or have you been affiliated with CAA at any point?

    3. er

      why are u guys so obsessed with this? he said he knows melo, thats all you need to know to understand why he says what he says and why he says it so strongly. CAA or not its irrelevant

      Jafa: I highly doubt we get a straight answer.

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Nothing like a little unbiased, objective analysis on the web’s premier source for Knicks analysis. God, this site gets better and better!

    5. Jafa

      er:
      why are u guys so obsessed with this? he said he knows melo, thats all you need to know to understand why he says what he says and why he says it so strongly. CAA or not its irrelevant

      I’d say that equates to a conflict of interest and a disclosure he should make everytime he posts about Melo. This way, we don’t take his post as objective analysis.

    6. Juany8

      Isn’t it much more likely that Ruru just knows Melo personally and has a bit too much optimism about his favorite player/team? Why would convincing a bunch of die hard Knicks fans on message board that Melo is a superstar rank high on CAA’s list of priorities? Even if he for some reason was involved with CAA, does it make any intelligent comment he makes less valid? A lot of what I post is at least somewhat similar to what ruru posts (we at least agree a lot) and I’m just some guy in Houston bored at his office job.

      Either way, it should be obvious that ruru probably overvalues Melo a bit and that you’re not going to agree with everything he says, but as long as he’s not personally attacking people or writing actual advertisements for another company, is it that big a deal? I’ve seen Kobe supporters much worse than Ruru lol

    7. er

      read again please , he stated already that he knows him. What else do you need for your judgement on objectivity?

      Jafa: I’d say that equates to a conflict of interest and a disclosure he should make everytime he posts about Melo.This way, we don’t take his post as objective analysis.

    8. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Nothing like a little unbiased, objective analysis on the web’s premier source for Knicks analysis. God, this site gets better and better!

      In my 5-6 years here, this site has always had a mix of objective (by your definition) and subjective analysis, sardonic humor, and hardcore fanspeak from fanboys and haters. Sadly, some of the guys you allude to have chosen to either silently lurk or move on, and even Mike K rarely contributes; ironically at a time when the Knicks actually have a contending team to discuss and normal people occupying the GM and coaching positions. I, for one, am glad not to be discussing whether we have an outside chance of making the playoffs on the coattails of David Lee and Trevor Ariza, as much as I am glad that we no longer have to hang our hopes on the likes of Steph, Eddy, and Jamal. This team is far from perfect, but it is light years better than the excrement we have endured during what you think of as KB’s golden age.

      I couldn’t care less about ruru’s background, credentials or affiliations, or about yours, Caleb’s, Owen’s, Ted Nelson’s or Mike K’s. None of what any of us write here makes any difference in policies or outcomes, so what difference does it make?

    9. Zanzibar

      If he’s tied into CAA, maybe he could lobby for this trade which could be done tomorrow if Paul wanted out to Knicks right away. Which team would say no? I only bring it up because Raptors are looking to move Calderon.

      > Knicks get Chris Paul
      > Toronto gets Tyson Chandler
      > Clippers get Calderon/Shumpert/Toronto 1st round pick. Also, Clippers would net about 6m of cap in the deal which could be used for free agent next off-season.

    10. Jafa

      Zanzibar:
      If he’s tied into CAA, maybe he could lobby for this trade which could be done tomorrow if Paul wanted out to Knicks right away. Which team would say no? I only bring it up because Raptors are looking to move Calderon.

      > Knicks get Chris Paul
      > Toronto gets Tyson Chandler
      > Clippers get Calderon/Shumpert/Toronto 1st round pick. Also, Clippers would net about 6m of cap in the deal which could be used for free agent next off-season.

      Wow! What a lopsided trade. I think the going rate for a superstar trade is at least 2 1st round picks. And what would the Clippers want with 6 M of cap space? Which free agents are dying to go there if CP3 isn’t there anymore?

    11. Zanzibar

      @11 OK what if Toronto added another 1st round pick? And most free agents will go where they get the most money. If Paul wants to go to Knicks, Clips have to decide if package of Calderon/Shump/1 or 2 1st rounders/6m of cap….is better than just having 18m of free cap.

    12. Juany8

      Giving up Tyson Chandler for Chris Paul is not making this team better unless Camby and Thomas turn back the clock a few years. With Amar’e as the PF, this team needs a strong defensive/rebounding presence inside

    13. ephus

      Zanzibar: @11 OK what if Toronto added another 1st round pick? And most free agents will go where they get the most money. If Paul wants to go to Knicks, Clips have to decide if package of Calderon/Shump/1 or 2 1st rounders/6m of cap….is better than just having 18m of free cap.

      This does not work for many reasons:

      1. Toronto has already traded away its 2013 First Round pick (top 3 protected) to Houston. The next pick that Toronto could trade is 2015, followed by 2017. No one working for Donald Sterling is going to reap the benefit of a 2017 first round pick.

      2. If the Clippers do not trade Chris Paul to NY, he cannot get here. The Knicks have no cap room, and since they will be over the Apron, they cannot do a sign-and-trade after the season.

      3. Calderon is not an asset. According to widely published accounts, Toronto not only cannot get anyone to take him without sending back more salary, they did not Amnesty Calderon because they knew that no other team would bid more than $5 million (which would leave Toronto on the hook for $5 million – the difference between Calderon’s $10 salary and the Amnesty bid).

      The only way the Clippers trade Paul to NY is if CAA convinces Sterling that CP3 will go to a team with cap space during the off-season, and will only accept a trade to NY.

    14. Zanzibar

      The only way the Clippers trade Paul to NY is if CAA convinces Sterling that CP3 will go to a team with cap space during the off-season, and will only accept a trade to NY.

      Yes that was the implicit assumption of my post. Paul tells them he will go to Mavs or Hawks if he is not traded to Knicks. IF Sterling believes that, would he take that deal or just prefer to have the cap space? The 2 draft picks could be trade assets later for Clippers, am I right? Shumpert’s got a very attractive contract. Clips could have Calderon extended for a couple of years for about 8m/year. Calderon is still one of the best shooters and passers with low turnover ratio at the PG position. My understanding is Toronto wants a trade exception for Calderon (which limits the number of trade partners) but if they can get badly needed interior defense in Chandler, imo they would take that.

    15. JC Knickfan

      Ephus,

      This actually exact detail of Toronto pick to Houston which almost guarantees lottery pick to Houston.

      Toronto’s own 2013 1st round pick to Houston (Top-3 Protected and 15-30 Protected in the 2013 Draft, top-2 protected and 15-30 protected in 2014, top-2 protected and 15-30 protected in 2015, top-1 Protected and 15-30 protected in 2016, top-1 protected and 15-30 Protected in 2017 and unprotected in the 2018 Draft.

    16. Zanzibar

      Juany8:
      Giving up Tyson Chandler for Chris Paul is not making this team better unless Camby and Thomas turn back the clock a few years. With Amar’e as the PF, this team needs a strong defensive/rebounding presence inside

      Paul has the better chance of making the PnR with Amare work CONSISTENTLY. Camby’s superior shooting ability compared to Tyson helps in this regard as well in terms of spacing. And Paul can knock down 3s at a far more efficient rate than Felton which is critical to improving Melo’s efficiency. And this team needs Paul to provide steady leadership at the end of the game just like he did against Spain in the Olympics. I think all of that is worth taking the risk. Keep in mind that we would be able to package Felton or Kidd in January with hopefully some non-guaranteed contracts to get a 7-8m defensive oriented big to shore up interior defense.

    17. Jafa

      Zanzibar,

      You are trying to hard to justify this trade, which means it won’t work. I don’t think you can con a GM in this league to trade for Felton or Kidd – Felton because he is not very good and Kidd because of that contract based on his age. Now, if we had retained Lin by signing him at the beginning of free agency, then when we trade for CP3 there would be a ready market for Lin that could net you a good enough C to help with TC’s departure. As it stands now, our trade pieces are very limited (Shump is the only trade piece).

    18. ruruland

      If you want talk about the future, I’d say you should focus on a core of Melo at 4, Chandler and Shumpert. Everyone knows CP3 and NY want to get together, but its still not likely, even with some of the best brains in the biz. I thinks it’s quite unlikely this core changes next two years.

    19. ruruland

      I think the FO understands how synergestic Chandler and Melo are together, and that their games are conducive to longer primes.

      Melo’s time at the 4 last season opened a lot of people’s eyes to different roster possibilities in a couple of years.

      There isn’t a guy in the league outside of Lebron who can guard 4s more than adequately, space the floor, post-up 3s, and playmake — and he should be able to do all those things into the forseeable future.

      That means you can do a lot of things at the small forward position in 2014 at earliest pr 2015 (let’s remember it’s 2013 this year), especially if Melo (having learned from his original mistake and with more than enough money) changes how his next contract is structured.

      Deng, Granger, Pierce, Gay, could all be available at that time to pair with Melo/Chandler/elite pg

      But that’s too far down the line to really be interesting to me now. You saw how fast things can change this off-season.

    20. ruruland

      Jafa:
      Zanzibar,

      You are trying to hard to justify this trade, which means it won’t work.I don’t think you can con a GM in this league to trade for Felton or Kidd – Felton because he is not very good and Kidd because of that contract based on his age.Now, if we had retained Lin by signing him at the beginning of free agency, then when we trade for CP3 there would be a ready market for Lin that could net you a good enough C to help with TC’s departure.As it stands now, our trade pieces are very limited (Shump is the only trade piece).

      Jafa, the Knicks, based on strength of schedule and point margin, were projected to win 51 games last season

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

    21. Zanzibar

      ruruland:
      I think the FO understands how synergestic Chandler and Melo are together, and that their games are conducive to longer primes.

      Hmm if I’m Dolan I’m thinking Melo is more likely to extend if Paul is here. I’m also considering how it seemed Chandler, historically injury prone, hit a wall toward the end of the season and really didn’t play all that well thereafter. Even in the Olympics, Mike K didn’t put him in when we were getting torched inside. And maybe there is no good solution to his clogging the middle and adversely affecting Amare’s game. Like you say, things can change, but there does seem to be one immutable fact: Amare is not tradeable for the next 3 years even if he plays well. So why not get the guy who can provide leadership and maximize Melo’s and Amare’s efficiency? And who’s to say Melo wouldn’t be synergistic at the 4 with Camby and other centers? And that Amare will be more synergistic with Camby who can space the floor unlike Chandler? Do you not feel that some subset of Felton/Kidd/Prigioni/Novak/Brewer/non-guaranteed contracts would have a good chance of netting us a decent center? BTW you talked about the FO’s mindset – is that yours as well or would do the proposed trade?

    22. Juany8

      Zanzibar: Hmm if I’m Dolan I’m thinking Melo is more likely to extend if Paul is here. I’m also considering how it seemed Chandler, historically injury prone, hit a wall toward the end of the season and really didn’t play all that well thereafter. Even in the Olympics, Mike K didn’t put him in when we were getting torched inside. And maybe there is no good solution to his clogging the middle and adversely affecting Amare’s game. Like you say, things can change, but there does seem to be one immutable fact: Amare is not tradeable for the next 3 years even if he plays well. So why not get the guy who can provide leadership and maximize Melo’s and Amare’s efficiency? And who’s to say Melo wouldn’t be synergistic at the 4 with Camby and other centers? And that Amare will be more synergistic with Camby who can space the floor unlike Chandler? Do you not feel that some subset of Felton/Kidd/Prigioni/Novak/Brewer/non-guaranteed contracts would have a good chance of netting us a decent center? BTW you talked about the FO’s mindset – is that yours as well or would do the proposed trade?

      If Camby will actually be effective for another few years and Amar’e is willing to at least be an average defender, trading Chandler for Paul makes a lot of sense. That is a lot of ifs though, especially since Chandler is one of the top 2 defensive players in the league, and he has a solid, if not very versatile, offensive game.

    23. Juany8

      Jafa:
      ESPN West Standing Projections:

      http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8273800/2012-nba-summer-forecast-west-standings

      I still say SAS will finish with a better record than LAL.Both OKC and SAS should win more than 60 games as well.

      After the top 6 in the west, the rest of the conference it pretty weak.Could the Jazz make the playoffs in the East?

      I like the Spurs to again be the top team in the west, although I think the Lakers destroy them in a series, and OKC should beat them more easily than they did last year. I don’t get why the Nuggets suddenly jumped in front of the Grizzlies, having Zach Randolph back a full year should be a much bigger improvement than going from Afflalo and Harrington (who was not as bad as people make him out to be, he certainly wasn’t a net negative) to Iguodala, especially since I’m not convinced Iguodala’s shooting was as good as he showed last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slip back into the low 30’s from 3, and if Gallo and Lawson remain inconsistent shooters from long range, the starting lineup is going to have some ugly spacing issues against anyone who can force them into a half court game, which is all the elite teams in the league. Denver continues to set the standard for super-mediocrity, luckily they keep changing the roster around so much no one is really paying attention to the fact that they haven’t been a top 10 team the past 2 years, and now they have to pay all those young players (plus Iguodala)

    24. ABG

      ephus: This does not work for many reasons:

      1.Toronto has already traded away its 2013 First Round pick (top 3 protected) to Houston.The next pick that Toronto could trade is 2015, followed by 2017.No one working for Donald Sterling is going to reap the benefit of a 2017 first round pick.

      2.If the Clippers do not trade Chris Paul to NY, he cannot get here.The Knicks have no cap room, and since they will be over the Apron, they cannot do a sign-and-trade after the season.

      3.Calderon is not an asset.According to widely published accounts, Toronto not only cannot get anyone to take him without sending back more salary, they did not Amnesty Calderon because they knew that no other team would bid more than $5 million (which would leave Toronto on the hook for $5 million – the difference between Calderon’s $10 salary and the Amnesty bid).

      The only way the Clippers trade Paul to NY is if CAA convinces Sterling that CP3 will go to a team with cap space during the off-season, and will only accept a trade to NY.

      Sure would be nice if we had a young, marketable point guard with a 15 million dollar cap number to match up in a trade for CP3. But where would we find one of those?

    25. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Are you really knocking the Nuggets? They just added one of the best SG/SF in the league while getting rid of their worst player (Harrington). They were 6th in SRS and had the 9th best expected pythagorean record in the league. And they did this after shipping out the superstar of Carmelo Anthony. That’s “super-mediocrity?” I’m not saying that they’re going to beat OKC or the Spurs, but damn, they haven’t had a pick better than #20 since they took Carmelo in ’03 and they’re still going to be a 50-win team this year.

      Maybe they’re A’s, but I’d much rather have that than what we’ve had in the Knicks for ten years.

    26. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Maybe they’re A’s, but I’d much rather have that than what we’ve had in the Knicks for ten years.
      The Honorable Cock Jowles

      You must have meant the last 2 years, since Melo was a Nugget for the other 8.

      Also, since you are a “wins produced” guy, if the Knicks produce more wins this year than Denver, and go further in the playoffs, would you come around on that statement somewhat?

    27. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Considering that I think OKC, SAS, LAL, DEN, and MIN will be better than all of the East teams after Miami this season, no, I wouldn’t. I will be surprised if the Knicks make it out of the first round again, and I would be shocked if they made it to a Conference Finals. Against the Heat, however, they still have no chance.

    28. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Are you really knocking the Nuggets? They just added one of the best SG/SF in the league while getting rid of their worst player (Harrington). They were 6th in SRS and had the 9th best expected pythagorean record in the league. And they did this after shipping out the superstar of Carmelo Anthony. That’s “super-mediocrity?” I’m not saying that they’re going to beat OKC or the Spurs, but damn, they haven’t had a pick better than #20 since they took Carmelo in ’03 and they’re still going to be a 50-win team this year.

      Maybe they’re A’s, but I’d much rather have that than what we’ve had in the Knicks for ten years.

      They lost to a Lakers team with a worse SRS. This is the second playoffs in a row they have done that, and both times their opponents went on to be non-threats in the playoffs, with OKC and the Lakers both getting blown off the floor after beating Denver. They’re probably not going to get home court advantage this year considering how loaded the west is, and any of the top 3 would destroy this Nuggets team. Iguodala is a nice addition, but he’s not a monster improvement alone, the Nuggets are still going to get killed defensively because of Lawson, Gallo, and Faried (I’m curious to see if McGee improves) Maybe now the Nuggets don’t have to double team Kobe, Durant, and Ginobli, but they still have zero answer for Westbrook, Parker, Duncan, Gasol, or Howard, not to mention teams like Memphis, the Clippers, and even Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets might have finally made themselves a top 10 team, but if that isn’t the definition of “super-mediocrity” I don’t know what is, especially since they’re going to lose in the first round again.

    29. BigBlueAL

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Considering that I think OKC, SAS, LAL, DEN, and MIN will be better than all of the East teams after Miami this season, no, I wouldn’t. I will be surprised if the Knicks make it out of the first round again, and I would be shocked if they made it to a Conference Finals. Against the Heat, however, they still have no chance.

      Minnesota?? I mean I think they might be able to sneak into the playoffs this season but be a Top 5 team in the West and better than all non-Heat East teams??

      This is why I love THCJ :-)

    30. ruruland

      I’m biased, but love Denver’s team. But As Juany mentioned, they still aren’t going to be a good playoff team unless a guy like McGee figures it out. Lawson is about as good as he’s going to get, and the rest of the team is composed of luxury role players. Still going to win a ton of regular season games and be the most entertaining team in NBA. And really, most of what theuve done was accomplished outside of Gallo trade. If Gallo had more value he’d be the guy traded for Iggy, not Afflalo. Chandler sucks offensively.

    31. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      BigBlueAL: Minnesota??I mean I think they might be able to sneak into the playoffs this season but be a Top 5 team in the West and better than all non-Heat East teams??

      This is why I love THCJ :-)

      They added a ton of great role players and ditched Milicic, Beasley, and Wes Johnson, three awful players who logged over 3000 minutes for the Wolves last year. Three AWFUL players.

      Wes Johnson: 0.99 PPS on a staggeringly bad .477 TS%, grabbed half as many OREB/48 (0.08) as the average SF.

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/184-wesley-johnson

      Milicic: TS% of .458 (HOLY SHIT THAT’S BAD), awful rebounding, committed way too many turnovers, below average in assists, steals, and everything else save blocks (and he was only marginally better than average).

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/186-darko-milicic

      Beasley: .502 TS% (so very bad), no steals, 40% fewer steals than the average SF. Again, a very bad player.

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/180-michael-beasley

      ———————–

      ALL OF THESE PLAYERS ARE GONE. Even if they were replaced by average players, the Wolves would likely win an additional five to eight games, by my estimation. We’re talking three of the worst players in the league to accrue significant playing time, here.

      And they added Stiemsma, Budinger, Cunningham (see his net possessions to assess that dude’s value; so efficient), and Kirilenko, who, if he’s anywhere near as good as he was during his time in the league before last year, will absolutely destroy at SF/PF.

      Remember that they also have Kevin Love, who is a bona fide superstar/volume scorer. We’re not talking about a team like the Nuggets who “have no central scoring option.” We’re talking about replacing three awful players with four above average/good role players, one of which was one of the best players in the league before heading to…

    32. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland:
      I’m biased, but love Denver’s team. But As Juany mentioned, they still aren’t going to be a good playoff team unless a guy like McGee figures it out. Lawson is about as good as he’s going to get, and the rest of the team is composed of luxury role players. Still going to win a ton of regular season games and be the most entertaining team in NBA. And really, most of what theuve done was accomplished outside of Gallo trade. If Gallo had more value he’d be the guy traded for Iggy, not Afflalo. Chandler sucks offensively.

      Chandler was a very bad signing at that price, but then again, the Nuggets turned some inflated contracts (Nene and Afflalo) into some serious pieces, so I’m not sure it’s a bad thing.

    33. ess-dog

      Aside from the Knicks making noise, I would love to see a Denver-Philly finals. Won’t happen this year, but maybe in 2-3 years?

      As for us, I’m a believer in starting and finishing with your best players, in our case, Kidd, JR, Melo, Stat, Chandler. Kidd would platoon with Felton, 24 minutes each.

      If Melo’s hot, you pull Stat early and then bring him back with Felton to work against the 2nd team.

      I think we’ll be lucky to get past a 2nd round series. Indy is tough and has gelled as a team. The 6ers are younger but better. Boston is still going to be very tough. I would not be surprised if we’re a 4 or 5 seed.

      If Shump comes back strong, I give us the edge in the 1st round matchup, but I still think we lose to Boston or Miami, maybe in 6 or 7 games if we’re lucky.

    34. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Chandler was a very bad signing at that price, but then again, the Nuggets turned some inflated contracts (Nene and Afflalo) into some serious pieces, so I’m not sure it’s a bad thing.

      It’s true. Kroenke and Masai have been nothing short of great outside of those three deals. I still think if they had their druthers they’d have kept AAA over Gallo though.

    35. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Wes Johnson: 0.99 PPS on a staggeringly bad .477 TS%, grabbed half as many OREB/48 (0.08) as the average SF.

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/184-wesley-johnson

      Milicic: TS% of .458 (HOLY SHIT THAT’S BAD), awful rebounding, committed way too many turnovers, below average in assists, steals, and everything else save blocks (and he was only marginally better than average).

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/186-darko-milicic

      Beasley: .502 TS% (so very bad), no steals, 40% fewer steals than the average SF. Again, a very bad player.

      http://www.thenbageek.com/players/180-michael-beasley

      ———————–

      ALL OF THESE PLAYERS ARE GONE. Even if they were replaced by average players, the Wolves would likely win an additional five to eight games, by my estimation.

      Haven’t posted for a while but thought this was an interesting post for a guy who is habitually so down on the Knicks.

      Here’s a list of Knicks and their TS from last year, in descending order:

      TC 70.8
      Novak 68.4
      Balkman 57.0
      Jordan 56.1
      Lin 55.2
      Amare 54.1
      Bill Walker 52.6
      Melo 52.5
      JR 50.8
      Landry 50.6
      Jorts 50.5
      Shump 48.4
      JJ 48.4
      Baron 45.7
      Bibby 40.4
      TD 39.3

      Notice something? Everyone south of JR Smith totaled about 6700 minutes last year which = about 101 minutes per game – so 42% of all the minutes played were played by guys with a TS of 50.6 or less.

      I’ll let THCJ finish it for me

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: ALL OF THESE PLAYERS ARE GONE. Even if they were replaced by average players, the [Knicks] would likely win an additional five to eight games, by my estimation. We’re talking [seven] of the worst players in the league to accrue significant playing time, here.

    36. Z-man

      ess-dog: I think we’ll be lucky to get past a 2nd round series. Indy is tough and has gelled as a team. The 6ers are younger but better. Boston is still going to be very tough. I would not be surprised if we’re a 4 or 5 seed.

      Lucky? I disagree. It will definitely be a challenge, but I see us as a favorite vs. either Indiana or Philly, and probably even money vs. Boston if we have home court.

      I really think that this will not be the same ol’ Knicks. (Maybe ol’, but not the same.) Kidd and Camby are old, but not crippled (like Baron) or flawed even in their prime (Turiaf, Bibby), or deferential to Melo, JR and Amare. Brewer is no worse than Fields on offense and far better on D. Felton is middling, but not a scrub and can play both ends of the court. We have an all-time leader in shooting efficiency and DPOY in the middle. All prospects of us getting eliminated in the first 2 rounds involve either Melo or Amare holding the team back, and I wouldn’t bet against either guy this year. We are also much bigger than Boston up front. It’s not like they blew us off the court during the last 2 years, and I would say we improved more than they have.

    37. Z-man

      Frank: Notice something? Everyone south of JR Smith totaled about 6700 minutes last year which = about 101 minutes per game – so 42% of all the minutes played were played by guys with a TS of 50.6 or less.

      Great point, Frank. And Jowles himself raved about the Camby and Brewer acquisitions.

    38. yoda4554

      Z-man: Great point, Frank. And Jowles himself raved about the Camby and Brewer acquisitions.

      2011-2012 TS% of players brought in to replace the players we lost–

      Jason Kidd 52.4%
      Raymond Felton 49.1%
      Kurt Thomas 48.3%
      Ronnie Brewer 46.5%
      Marcus Camby 45.5%

      They also lost last season’s highest-efficiency volume scorer and best passer in Lin, and given that any regression to career norms by Stoudemire and Smith is likely to be balanced by Novak and Chandler coming down a bit from their career years (and that, to beat a dead horse, our team is now really, really old), I don’t see our offense being dramatically better.

    39. Juany8

      Not only were the players the Knicks lost at the bottom of the TS% bad offensive players, they were all terrible defenders (save Shump, who is still on the team, and Jeffries, who was constantly injured or would probably still be here) The roster additions this year are all solid defenders (even the old guys) who have serious experience playing in advanced half court offenses. You won’t see a TD dribbling with his head down against Charlotte, or a Landry Fields having an ocean of room to throw up a brick from 3 (or the free throw line lol) All of these guys know how to play and will limit their mistakes, which doesn’t sound like a lot but is huge considering how terrible most of the team was at the beginning of the season.

    40. massive

      Somebody is going to have to explain to me how Philadelphia and Indiana are better than us. Philly was the #8 seed last year and got rid of their 3 best players (Iggy, Brand, and Lou), replacing them with Nick Young, Jason Richardson, and Andrew Bynum. That’s one good-great player and two average players. By getting rid of their 2 best back-court/wing players, that means they’ll be playing Evan Turner (career TS%? 48.4) a lot more this year. Not to mention that their wing defenders aren’t better than average now that Iguodala is gone.

      Indiana is a very good team, and I love Paul George, but they didn’t make any off-season moves worth speaking of (unless you want to mention how they over-payed Roy Hibbert). Unless Paul George plays as good as early 2000s Tracy McGrady, I’d bet we’d beat them in 5 or 6 games if we saw them in the post season.

    41. er

      let alone the bk nets…..but i think this could work in our favor as added motivation, while last year the high expectations were more of a burden

      massive:
      Somebody is going to have to explain to me how Philadelphia and Indiana are better than us. Philly was the #8 seed last year and got rid of their 3 best players (Iggy, Brand, and Lou), replacing them with Nick Young, Jason Richardson, and Andrew Bynum. That’s one good-great player and two average players. By getting rid of their 2 best back-court/wing players, that means they’ll be playing Evan Turner (career TS%? 48.4) a lot more this year. Not to mention that their wing defenders aren’t better than average now that Iguodala is gone.

      Indiana is a very good team, and I love Paul George, but they didn’t make any off-season moves worth speaking of (unless you want to mention how they over-payed Roy Hibbert). Unless Paul George plays as good as early 2000s Tracy McGrady, I’d bet we’d beat them in 5 or 6 games if we saw them in the post season.

    42. jon abbey

      I still think it’s too early to think about specific pecking order in the East after Miami and maybe Boston, but one thing that Philly has certainly lost which was a big strength for them last year was chemistry via continuity. they got off to a fantastic start despite the lockout because they were I believe the only team that kept the same eight man rotation from 2010-2011 to 2011-2012, and they even played as a unit in pickup games over the summer, even running plays from the PHI playbooks. obviously that’s gone now.

    43. ruruland

      yoda4554:

      They also lost last season’s highest-efficiency volume scorer and best passer in Lin, and given that any regression to career norms by Stoudemire and Smith is likely to be balanced by Novak and Chandler coming down a bit from their career years (and that, to beat a dead horse, our team is now really, really old), I don’t see our offense being dramatically better.

      ill get to this soon….key points off the top of my head are as follows

      1) assuming gamblers fallacy is correct, and that regressions to mean from Amare, Melo and Smith are countered by regressions from Novak and Chandler, which do you think will have a bigger impact? Yeah, the Former three have much higher usage

      2)you’re missing the picture at the surface level. First, the Knicks were tied for 10th last year in TSpercent. Adding Camby, Kidd, Brewer and Felton won’t be a massive upgrade in scoring efficiency, but it will be a significant upgrade in offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, turnover creation and fast break opportunities….

      3) Ignoring 3-5 year trends and only focusing on last season would be foolish. Ignoring the context of the team and how each player should fit in iis a mistake.

      4) Knicks will be giving Smith and Novak much higher percentage of seasons shots than last year.

      I think of it like this: Camby, Kidd, Brewer, Felton and Shumpert are fully capable of about 530 combined TS on 30 percent of scoring attemp usage

      Novak, Chandler, Smith, Melo, Amare are fully capable of a combined .590 on 70 percent of scoring attempt usage.

      The Knicks were tenth last year in TS, they should be between 560 and 575 this season….but it’s the offensive rebounding improvements on surface that should bump offensive efficiency, I predicted top 7 in NBA.

    44. ruruland

      Offendive rebound and decreased turnovers, if we’re doing superficial projections, will bump Knicks offensive efficiency.

    45. Mike Kurylo Post author

      Z-man: In my 5-6 years here, this site has always had a mix of objective (by your definition) and subjective analysis, sardonic humor, and hardcore fanspeak from fanboys and haters. Sadly, some of the guys you allude to have chosen to either silently lurk or move on, and even Mike K rarely contributes; ironically at a time when the Knicks actually have a contending team to discuss and normal people occupying the GM and coaching positions. I, for one, am glad not to be discussing whether we have an outside chance of making the playoffs on the coattails of David Lee and Trevor Ariza, as much as I am glad that we no longer have to hang our hopes on the likes of Steph, Eddy, and Jamal. This team is far from perfect, but it is light years better than the excrement we have endured during what you think of as KB’s golden age.

      I couldn’t care less about ruru’s background, credentials or affiliations, or about yours, Caleb’s, Owen’s, Ted Nelson’s or Mike K’s. None of what any of us write here makes any difference in policies or outcomes, so what difference does it make?

      I don’t have the ability to read the site during hours when everyone else is commenting, so it’s actually pretty frustrating when I see a comment that I’d love to jump on but can’t. Although I think you guys are doing a great job without me. Maybe in the future I’ll have the ability to have my voice heard, so be careful what you wish for. ;-)

      Also I think it doesn’t matter where we come from. Just like the athletes we follow, I’m sure many of our favorites are people that we would find repulsive in real life. Basically we are, to each other, just words on a page. In a way it’s a good thing that all the rest is left behind, and it’s our content that we have to stand upon.

    46. Jafa

      Wow! Finally some people on this board (THCJ, ess-dog, Frank, yoda, jon abbey) who can see what I see: We are good, but not that good! We will kill it on defense and be average on offense, will win between 45-50 games and be seeded between #3 and #5 in the playoffs. Felton is not a good PG and should not start over 39 year old Kidd (that’s how bad Felton is). Only alarming thing you guys said was JR should be starting (oh the nightmare).

      But man, I was getting depressed reading Z-man, ruru and juany8 fawn endlessly about our team and how we are the 2nd best team in the East and should give Miami a run for their money. Like you guys said, we will be very lucky to get past the 2nd round and we will all exhale when the Knicks get past the 1st round.

      In the words of Jim Mora: “Finals? Finals? Dont talk to me about Finals! We just trying to win a playoff series!”

    47. Juany8

      Jafa:
      Wow!Finally some people on this board (THCJ, ess-dog, Frank, yoda, jon abbey) who can see what I see:We are good, but not that good!We will kill it on defense and be average on offense, will win between 45-50 games and be seeded between #3 and #5 in the playoffs.Felton is not a good PG and should not start over 39 year old Kidd (that’s how bad Felton is).Only alarming thing you guys said was JR should be starting (oh the nightmare).

      But man, I was getting depressed reading Z-man, ruru and juany8 fawn endlessly about our team and how we are the 2nd best team in the East and should give Miami a run for their money.Like you guys said, we will be very lucky to get past the 2nd round and we will all exhale when the Knicks get past the 1st round.

      In the words of Jim Mora: “Finals? Finals? Dont talk to me about Finals!We just trying to win a playoff series!”

      The Knicks aren’t making the Finals, and they certainly won’t be the second best eastern team in the playoffs, but because Boston doesn’t care about the regular season and Rose is injured, I see the Knicks as a contender for the second seed along with the Pacers, Celtics, and possibly Sixers. We do also happen to have certain match up advantages against Miami that no other team in the East really possesses, but that just means maybe the Knicks slow them down before they inevitably make the Finals (no team in the East other than Miami is all that good)

    48. ruruland

      Wondering why you’re so enamored with Boston. KG really had to dig deep to play at the level he did. Lets remember they were beating Miami with a banged up Bosh( who didnt play much of series) and Wade. Rondo played a once in alidetime series. They pretty much talked about last year as their last run. The temptation to rebuild was really strong last season. Pierce is slowing down. They aren’t going to win with those two guys as 70 minute focal points forever.

    49. ruruland

      Sometimes it bothers me when Knicks fans claim they’ve cornered the market on cynicism, but not in this case.

    50. ruruland

      Juany8: The Knicks aren’t making the Finals, and they certainly won’t be the second best eastern team in the playoffs, but because Boston doesn’t care about the regular season and Rose is injured, I see the Knicks as a contender for the second seed along with the Pacers, Celtics, and possibly Sixers. We do also happen to have certain match up advantages against Miami that no other team in the East really possesses, but that just means maybe the Knicks slow them down before they inevitably make the Finals (no team in the East other than Miami is all that good)

      The Heat were 12-2 in the playoffs last year WITH BOSH……who was statistically their second best player in the playoffs last season, and only legitimate inside prescence who could play more than 20 minutes.

      The Heat were 5-5 in the playoffs WITHOUT Bosh.

      The Celtics won three straight games against Miami with BOSH out, and out-rebounded the Heat by the following percentages in those 3 games: 16.3, 5, (-12)

      The Heat were unable to exploit the Celtics biggest weakness (rebounding) , and turned it into a strength.

      Boston won those three games by a total of 16 points.

      Boston’s four losses were by a combined 51 points. When Bosh was in the lineup, Boston lost by 32 combined points in the final two games of the series.

      It took them seven games to beat Philadelphia (they could have easily lost game 1) and 6 (including one OT win) to beat Atlanta.

      I fail to see what was so impressive about their run last year. Their best shooter is gone, their best interior bench player is gone, and they’re asking KG and Pierce to carry the same load they did last year in a full 82 game schedule.

      The Knicks will take that 7th seed match-up every day.

    51. ruruland

      Juany8: The Knicks aren’t making the Finals, and they certainly won’t be the second best eastern team in the playoffs, but because Boston doesn’t care about the regular season and Rose is injured, I see the Knicks as a contender for the second seed along with the Pacers, Celtics, and possibly Sixers. We do also happen to have certain match up advantages against Miami that no other team in the East really possesses, but that just means maybe the Knicks slow them down before they inevitably make the Finals (no team in the East other than Miami is all that good)

      Also, why is Chicago clearly a top playoff team when they’ve underperformed two years in a row,, just lost their best shooter, their second best defensive big, their second best perimeter wing, and their steady pg, and replaced them with players who don’t even fit their system.

      Chciago’s biggest strength was its defense and rebounding depth, they’ve lost much of it, and will likely get much worse offensively.

      That’s another 7 seed the Knicks should want to face.

    52. jon abbey

      Boston was playing without Avery Bradley and Jeff Green, both of whom are back, plus they added Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger and Courtney Lee. combine them with the exisiting core of Garnett/Pierce/Rondo plus Brandon Bass plus Pietrus and that’s the second best team in the East if they stay healthy.

      and Rondo is a 26 year old who has consistently shown an ability to raise his level of play in big games, I wouldn’t be so sure that he played a “once in a lifetime” series.

    53. ruruland

      jon abbey:
      Boston was playing without Avery Bradley and Jeff Green, both of whom are back, plus they added Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger and Courtney Lee. combine them with the exisiting core of Garnett/Pierce/Rondo plus Brandon Bass plus Pietrus and that’s the second best team in the East if they stay healthy.

      and Rondo is a 26 year old who has consistently shown an ability to raise his level of play in big games, I wouldn’t be so sure that he played a “once in a lifetime” series.

      True, Bradley makes some difference, but consider that Mike Miller could barely move inthat series.

      They are worse with Terry than they were with Allen.

      Lee is a solid player, but doesn’t address their issues rebounding and scoring where they were bottom 3 in the NBA.
      Most would be surprised if Sullinger is as effective as Stiemsma was last year. If Garnett and Pierce had smaller roles I might buy it….but last years run was a function of lucking out with their seed and not having to face the one guy who could exploit them inside.

      They will be solid, but Rondo and an aging core will only take them so far.

    54. jon abbey

      their rebounding is intentionally low (they were the worst offensive rebounding team in history last season) due to their teamwide philosophy of trying to get back on D over crashing the boards.

      the last thing I want to do is tout the Celtics, I would prefer they all go down in a fiery plane crash over making the playoffs, but if someone held a gun to my head and made me pick who would have a better season this year under penalty of death, Boston or NY, it would not take me much time to answer Boston.

    Comments are closed.