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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Apr 23 2013)

  • [New York Times] Bulls Shut Down Nets 90-82, Even Series at 1-1 (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 07:42:03 GMT)
    Joakim Noah gave a meek smile, looking as if he was hiding either the truth or the pain.    

  • [New York Times] Clippers Edge Grizzlies on Paul’s Shot (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 06:45:07 GMT)
    Chris Paul’s running jumper with a tenth of a second left gave the Los Angeles Clippers a victory over the Memphis Grizzlies and a 2-0 lead in their first-round playoff series.    

  • [New York Times] Bulls 90, Nets 82: Fighting Out of Corner, Bulls Edge Nets to Win Round 2 on Points (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:36:38 GMT)
    Run over in the series opener, the Chicago Bulls wizened up, buckled down and handed the Nets a stern wake-up call.    

  • [New York Times] Knicks’ Pablo Prigioni Likely to Return in Game 2 Against Celtics (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:24:50 GMT)
    Pablo Prigioni, who sprained his right ankle in the Knicks’ regular-season finale, practiced Monday and was listed as probable.    

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Knicks’ J.R. Smith Wins Sixth Man of the Year Award (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:14:21 GMT)
    J.R. Smith of the Knicks averaged 18.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game in 80 games this season.    

  • [New York Times] Game 2: Nets vs. Bulls (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:09:02 GMT)
    The Bulls pulled away in the third quarter and held on to beat the Nets to even their best-of-seven playoff series at one game apiece.    

  • [New York Times] Bulls Shut Down Nets 90-82, Even Series at 1-1 (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:00:05 GMT)
    Whatever pain Joakim Noah was feeling in that achy right foot would have to wait.    

  • [New York Times] Knicks’ J.R. Smith Wins NBA Sixth Man Award (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 02:32:50 GMT)
    J.R. Smith won the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award Monday after turning a role he didn’t want into one of the strengths of the New York Knicks’ first division championship team in nearly two decades.    

  • [New York Times] Chris Ford, Former Celtics Player, Among Knicks’ Aides for Coach Mike Woodson (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 02:27:58 GMT)
    Mike Woodson’s coaching consultant, Chris Ford, spent 15 years with Boston as a player and a coach, but is now trying to oust his former team from the playoffs.    

  • [New York Times] David Lee’s Playoff Experience Is Brief After a Long Wait (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 02:00:20 GMT)
    David Lee, the Golden State All-Star forward who was making the first playoff appearance of his career, tore his right hip flexor in the Warriors’ Game 1 loss to Denver and is done for the postseason.    

  • [New York Times] On Basketball: Knicks’ J.R. Smith Wins Sixth Man Award (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 01:53:24 GMT)
    The Knicks’ J.R. Smith, who won the N.B.A.’s Sixth Man of the Year Award, has been regarded as one of the most gifted shooting guards in the league, but with a questionable head. In mid-March, his outlook changed.    

  • [New York Times] Boston Celtics’ List of Things to Improve Has a Bit of Everything (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 01:29:21 GMT)
    Paul Pierce’s list of adjustments for the Celtics against the Knicks in Game 2 include: fewer turnovers, more patience on offense and a bigger role for the bench and Kevin Garnett.    

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks Melo will tell you what time it is (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 07:05:40 GMT)
    From Syracuse to the Denver Nuggets to the Knicks, where he was the NBA’s leading scorer in 2013, Carmelo Anthony knows a thing or two about time well spent.    

  • [New York Daily News] J.R. named NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 06:52:09 GMT)
    It was a little more than a year ago when J.R. Smith sauntered into the Knicks locker room with his blue jeans hanging low enough to expose whether he is a boxers or briefs guy. ‘Pull up your goddamn pants,’ Mike Woodson screamed, having already addressed Smith’s fashion statement one week earlier.    

  • [New York Daily News] Raissman: Long NBA Playoff slate is no fast break (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 05:43:01 GMT)
    Anyone mesmerized by the Celtics’ eight-point, fourth-quarter outburst in the Gulag Saturday afternoon received a verbal slap in the face courtesy of Jeff (Shecky) Van Gundy. His message was clear: The time you are wasting is your own. “No one in the East can beat the Heat,â? he said on ABC as the Knicks slogged their way to an 85-78 win.    

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks Insider: Chandler ready to stick neck out (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 05:33:32 GMT)
    Tyson Chandler reported feeling minor stiffness in his neck while claiming, “I feel great honestly. “It’s just when you’re out for so long, you’re not playing against some Park and Rec dudes, you’re playing against the best of the best,â? Chandler said Monday.    

  • [New York Daily News] Lawrence: Sixth senseless? J.R. award could mean no Knicks title (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 02:06:15 GMT)
    Kudos to J.R. Smith and now we pretty much know the Knicks are not winning the title. Of course they weren’t going to win it, anyway, not as long as LeBron James continues to take the floor for the Miami Heat.    

  • [New York Post] Rivers goes with flow of unfamiliar Celts bench (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:41:39 -0500)
    Less than one year ago, the Celtics were one game away from their third NBA Finals in five seasons.
    Doc Rivers is still standing on the sideline, Kevin Garnett is still working on the block and Paul Pierce is still operating around the perimeter, but Ray Allen is running around…

  • [New York Post] Knicks’ Iman in Game 2 stopper role (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:41:26 -0500)
    Going into Game 2 of the Knicks’ first-round playoff series last year, Iman Shumpert was finished for the year with a torn ACL.
    Now, going into Game 2 of the Knicks’ first-round playoff series, Shumpert likely will be assigned to guard the Celtics’ most dangerous scorer.
    With Pablo Prigioni probable…

  • [New York Post] Prigioni back for â??must-win’ game (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:41:13 -0500)
    With deep emotions swirling around Boston, the Knicks want nothing to do with heading there in a deadlocked series.
    With guard Pablo Prigioni ready to return tonight to make the Knicks’ starting lineup whole again, the Knicks talked of an urgency to take a 2-0 lead in the series.
    Game…

  • [New York Post] Knicks guard Smith embraces his â??Sixth’ sense (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:40:57 -0500)
    J.R. Smith was ticked during training camp. The enigmatic yet supremely talented Smith wanted to finally be an NBA starter and was crushed when coach Mike Woodson sat down with him with the news he would be the team’s Sixth Man.
    It couldn’t have worked out any…

  • [New York Post] Father Time is no match for ageless Kidd (Tue, 23 Apr 2013 03:10:53 -0500)
    Jason Kidd can still survey the court and see things Father Time cannot defend. He can still steal the ball from Father Time’s dribble, he can still outthink Father Time when the game is on the line, even on 40-year-old legs.
    Sometimes the great ones find a way, sometimes…

  • 64 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Tuesday, Apr 23 2013)

    1. ephus

      Mitch Lawrence. Here is a sentence for you to repeat 100 times, or until it permeates your thoughts:

      “Correlation is not Causation.”

      Lawrence’s thesis for today’s stupidity – that the Knicks are doomed not to win the title because (1) JR Smith won the 6th man of the year award and (2) only 4 out of the last 30 6 MOY winners have won the championship that year – would get him fired as a first year analyst on Wall Street. This is the mindset that allows Nate Silver to seem like a descended god (and he is pretty awesome) when he debunks the conventional wisdom that holds sway on the sports pages.

      An intelligent article could explore whether there is something about the stats generally recognized by 6th MOY that makes it unlikely that a team constructed to create a 6th MOY winner would be a serious title contender. Like maybe (and I have not crunched the numbers) the award tends to go to high volume scorers who nonetheless have a low PER. But since Harden helped to carry the Thunder last season, Manu won the award in a year that helped the Spurs get to the WCF (and has won multiple titles with Spurs), and Schrempf helped the Pacers get to the Finals in one of the two years he won the award, I do not think that theory would bear scrutiny. I do not think that question even passed through Mitch Lawrence’s mind.

      I would rather read THCJ’s most outrageous provocations than the inanity that fills some sports columns. But, then again, I love performance art.

    2. Nick C.

      Did you know that no NBA team has won a title with Mitch Lawrence employed as a sportswriter for one of the team’s daily newspapers? I also heard one one of the pre-games that no team that finished last in the NBA in rebounding has won the title. Apparently the Heat finished last this season. It’s astounding the amount of crap they put out to fill space. It would be just as insightful better if he just reprinted his kids homework assignment.

    3. Juany8

      It’s like all the statements that teams who win game 1 win the series a really high number if times. When you consider that half the first round series right now are being played by teams with about a 10 win difference in their record (all the 1-8 and 2-7 matchups) you could say all of those teams would have had a high chance of winning before even playing a game. And even if they lost the first game they’d still have an excellent chance of winning. It’s why linear correlations in sucks complex sport are mostly useless. My favorite correlation ever was that in football, teams that took a kneel down in the 4th quarter win 100% of the time.

      The next time a WP acolyte tells you that stats correlate well year to year, tell them they don’t correlate as well as kneeling down does with winning in football. Same with that moronic 6th man stat, 4 of the past 5 guys to win it (before JR) all at least made a finals within a year of getting the award (Jason terry, Lamar odom, and James harden, ginobli). Jamal Crawford looks out of place, but no media award is particularly objective anyways, it’s just a nice fun thing to fet

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8:
      It’s like all the statements that teams who win game 1 win the series a really high number if times. When you consider that half the first round series right now are being played by teams with about a 10 win difference in their record (all the 1-8 and 2-7 matchups) you could say all of those teams would have had a high chance of winning before even playing a game. And even if they lost the first game they’d still have an excellent chance of winning. It’s why linear correlations in sucks complex sport are mostly useless. My favorite correlation ever was that in football, teams that took a kneel down in the 4th quarter win 100% of the time.

      The next time a WP acolyte tells you that stats correlate well year to year, tell them they don’t correlate as well as kneeling down does with winning in football. Same with that moronic 6th man stat, 4 of the past 5 guys to win it (before JR) all at least made a finals within a year of getting the award (Jason terry, Lamar odom, and James harden, ginobli). Jamal Crawford looks out of place, but no media award is particularly objective anyways, it’s just a nice fun thing to fet

      What about the linear correlations that tell us that eFG%, ORB%, TOV%, and FTM/FGA can predict game outcomes with startling accuracy? You want it one way, but it’s the other way.

      Also, yes. The 6MOY award is stupid. Complain about WP all you want, but they found common traits in the winners: highest scoring “sixth man” (regardless of efficiency), plays on a high-seed playoff team but usually not the best team in the league. That is not a recipe to choose the “best” player.

    5. Kurt

      From previous thread:

      First, for Melodrama: I see you’re also a NOLA resident. I just emailed llcoolbp about scheduling something for Sunday. If you’d like to be part of a NOLA Knicks playoff watching (hopefully the last game in the series, knock on wood), please let me know what your email address is.

      Also: I agree with ruruland that I’d love to have more video analysis on the site at some point.

      I’d like to disagree with ruru about Derrick Rose for a few reasons:
      1. Team ownership gave away the season by giving away players like Korver in a salary dump. If you know you’re not going to win anyway with that supporting cast it’s not worth the risk of injury.

      2.Big difference between a bit role player like Shumpert coming back and integrating himself into the team scheme and Rose, who’d be expected to carry the team from the time he starts playing. Also considering that playoff basketball is even more intense, its a major jump of a load.

      3. As you know, it takes a while to get integrated into such a major offensive change. Even if he practiced well, its different from beginning on the fly in the playoffs.

      4. Regarding your football argument, without any real knowledge of football, I assume that offenses, defenses, burdens of roles have much less differences based on particular players playing, with the exception of quarterbacks.

    6. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What about the linear correlations that tell us that eFG%, ORB%, TOV%, and FTM/FGA can predict game outcomes with startling accuracy? You want it one way, but it’s the other way.

      Also, yes. The 6MOY award is stupid. Complain about WP all you want, but they found common traits in the winners: highest scoring “sixth man” (regardless of efficiency), plays on a high-seed playoff team but usually not the best team in the league. That is not a recipe to choose the “best” player.

      you don’t deserve to quote Omar, dude. don’t do that.

      and again, I am very curious to hear who the more deserving 6th man of the year candidates were this year, over JR and Crawford, mostly so I can have another one-liner to mock you with for the foreseeable future.

    7. lavor postell

      Also: I agree with ruruland that I’d love to have more video analysis on the site at some point.

      I’d like to disagree with ruru about Derrick Rose for a few reasons:
      1. Team ownership gave away the season by giving away players like Korver in a salary dump. If you know you’re not going to win anyway with that supporting cast it’s not worth the risk of injury.

      2.Big difference between a bit role player like Shumpert coming back and integrating himself into the team scheme and Rose, who’d be expected to carry the team from the time he starts playing. Also considering that playoff basketball is even more intense, its a major jump of a load.

      3. As you know, it takes a while to get integrated into such a major offensive change. Even if he practiced well, its different from beginning on the fly in the playoffs.

      The thing is it’s not like he tried to test it out in a regular season game when he had the chance and suffered a setback. He simply has not been willing to even take the chance on testing it out in game and for this I can’t accept it.

      Look I’ve never torn an ACL so I can only imagine how hard it must be to overcome the injury both physically and mentally. That being said it’s really hard to give somebody the benefit of the doubt when they themselves are telling you they are physically completely fine, but just need to overcome it mentally. I would imagine it might actually mentally overcome such an obstacle by actually facing it and playing in a game.

      Chicago’s front office didn’t have a particularly good summer, but they actually did ok for themselves. Hinrich’s a good defensive point guard who could be a nice fit next to Rose next year, or whenever Rose is mentally ready to come back. Korver is a nice piece and to lose him when he only got a one-year deal is surprising, but Belinelli has been a decent replacement and Nate has replaced the scoring punch. They lost Asik, but a defensive dropoff has not been a…

    8. jon abbey

      I don’t buy the “team ownership gave away the season” argument. Noah, Boozer, Deng are all still there, so is Gibson. yes, their bench is a lot weaker without Asik, but Jimmy Butler is probably an upgrade on Korver in the end, and little Nate has also played great for them. with zero help from Rose (if you don’t count lecturing Boozer while in a suit), they have a solid shot at being a second round team.

    9. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey: and again, I am very curious to hear who the more deserving 6th man of the year candidates were this year, over JR and Crawford, mostly so I can have another one-liner to mock you with for the foreseeable future.

      Where to start?

      Amir Johnson
      Andre Miller
      Kevin Martin
      Carl Landry
      Javale McGee (too few minutes, but I don’t see this as a bad thing — it means that he used fewer minutes to produce more points)
      Jimmy Butler
      Matt Barnes

    10. johnno

      I watched parts of Nets-Bulls last night and have five comments –
      – Gerald Wallace is an atrocious basketball player. His four year $40 million contract is one of the most amazingly bad front office decisions I have ever seen (especially when you throw in the fact that they traded the Damian Lillard pick to get him).
      – The softball treatment Derrick Rose gets from the announcers is hilarious. They were actually praising him for coaching and encouraging his teammates. If I were Noah, I would have turned to him and said, “If you don’t feel up to playing, shut the f*#@ up!”
      – After seeing what Woodson has been able to do with a guy like JR Smith, I would have loved to have seen if he could have gotten through to a knucklehead like Nate Robinson.
      – I think that Brook Lopez is a much better player than most people give him credit for.
      – If Melo EVER threw out a stinkbomb like Deron Williams did last night in a home playoff game, he would be getting KILLED by everyone — media, bloggers, reporters — everyone…

    11. thenamestsam

      jon abbey:
      I don’t buy the “team ownership gave away the season” argument. Noah, Boozer, Deng are all still there, so is Gibson. yes, their bench is a lot weaker without Asik, but Jimmy Butler is probably an upgrade on Korver in the end, and little Nate has also played great for them. with zero help from Rose (if you don’t count lecturing Boozer while in a suit), they have a solid shot at being a second round team.

      Yeah I agree with this. They may have tried to throw the season away to a certain extent but the bottom line is that they’re here now. They have a solid roster and in the most essential way their situation now is exactly the same as it would have been with Rose for the whole year and as it will almost certainly be next year – they will have to beat Miami in a playoff series to make the finals.

      A rotation of Rose, Hinrich, Nate/Bellinelli, Butler, Deng, Boozer, Gibson and Noah may not be as foreboding as the one they might have had, but it’s pretty darn good, and if Rose was really ready to go I think they’d have a punchers chance at Miami, which is all anyone outside of OKC and maybe the Spurs (if healthy) really has. Asik is awesome, but they don’t miss him that much. A 4th viable big man is a luxury item in today’s NBA (particularly against Miami). Korver’s shooting would be a big boon for them, but I can’t really believe that the absence of Kyle Korver is the difference between Rose thinking they can win and thinking they have no shot.

    12. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What about the linear correlations that tell us that eFG%, ORB%, TOV%, and FTM/FGA can predict game outcomes with startling accuracy? You want it one way, but it’s the other way.

      Uh? What predictions? I mean ACTUAL predictions… the only kind of predictions i’ve seen for WP48 is that after all the season has happened … if i had the WP48 i just calculated, i could have predicted exactly the number of wins. Which is totally biased, because… ahem … you knew the results before predicting anything.

      If WP48 is to be really tested, proponents have to be serious about its research. Obviously you can’t predict injuries, or how well rookies will translate to the NBA; and i feel it would be acceptable to have that kind of input to make the kind of retroactive predictions WP proponents use. But if you fully calculate a new set of WP48 the exercise is futile. The correlation will be the best (obviously), but that idealized “predictive power” is just bad methodology.

    13. Kurt

      Johno: I was able to see it coming as soon as they signed him. Since he can’t really shoot, Wallace’s game depended completely on his athleticism. Players who want to maintain their level after declining athleticism work on their game (Just imagine if Amar’e never developed his game beyond his first seasons in Phoenix). Wallace hasn’t really done that, so he’s now an albatross.

      I don’t have anything personal against Brooklyn, but I root against them because a management team stupid enough to trade for Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace does not deserve to get past the second round of the playoffs.

      johnno:
      I watched parts of Nets-Bulls last night and have five comments – – Gerald Wallace is an atrocious basketball player.His four year $40 million contract is one of the most amazingly bad front office decisions I have ever seen (especially when you throw in the fact that they traded the Damian Lillard pick to get him).

    14. mcliff05

      johnno: I watched parts of Nets-Bulls last night and have five comments –– Gerald Wallace is an atrocious basketball player. His four year $40 million contract is one of the most amazingly bad front office decisions I have ever seen (especially when you throw in the fact that they traded the Damian Lillard pick to get him).– The softball treatment Derrick Rose gets from the announcers is hilarious. They were actually praising him for coaching and encouraging his teammates. If I were Noah, I would have turned to him and said, “If you don’t feel up to playing, shut the f*#@ up!”– After seeing what Woodson has been able to do with a guy like JR Smith, I would have loved to have seen if he could have gotten through to a knucklehead like Nate Robinson.– I think that Brook Lopez is a much better player than most people give him credit for.– If Melo EVER threw out a stinkbomb like Deron Williams did last night in a home playoff game, he would be getting KILLED by everyone — media, bloggers, reporters — everyone…

      I absolutely agree with the points with Rose, Lopez and D-Will/Melo, especially the latter. There is a strange media fascination with Melo right now that forces everyone in the basketball world to develop a strong conviction, pick a side and vehemently agrue their belief. I call it the politics of Melo. Blue state, red state. No middle ground. Its like after Lebron won a title and Dwight Howard became largely irrelevant due to the Lakers sucking, the NBA & ESPN needed a new villian to root against.

      And I see your point on Wallace. He’s definitely overpaid but I think he is a very nice piece for a playoff team. If you put a hustle guy that can play strong defense, around a bunch of shooters than his impact as an offensive liability is mitigated. Unfortuntately, they play Wallace with Rick Ross the Nets are playing 3-3 on…

    15. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      flossy:
      Remember how much shit Jeremy Lin took from the fans and media for not returning from injury to play in the playoffs, despite not being 100% recovered?He’d have been risking his entire financial future if he’d re-injured himself before free agency.Rose is just protecting his pride.Say what you will about Amar’e, but at this rate it’s looking like he might come back from two different knee surgeries before Rose sees the floor again.

      False comparison. Do you really think that a debridement is the same thing as an ACL repair? Bullshit rhetoric, right here.

      Also, Rose is protecting his pride? There’s some armchair psychology bullshit, too! What analysis this site has.

    16. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank: LOL at THCJ making wild assumptions about someone/something (Ruru in this case) with little evidence.

      For all you knew Ruru suffered a career ending injury playing basketball. you don’t know the first thing about him, and yet you take that tone.

      And you say you’re actually a teacher of students?

      And for all you know I’ve had ACL/MCL repairs on both knees. Or I don’t. Or maybe it was just one.

      Either way, it’s not your fucking knee so it’s not your fucking decision to make. Do you like that tone? Because yeah, I’m a little heated about this “sacrifice for the good of team” bullshit going around professional sports these days.

      Honestly, I think you’d make a great Pee-Wee football coach, Frank.

      Frank: You took quite the shot on that last play.

      Kid: I’m a little woozy, coach. [leans against table with orange slices and Capri-sun pouches]

      Frank: It’s okay. When I played football, I got my bell rung all the time. You play through the pain. You think this game is about you, kid?

      Kid: No, coach. I just [throws up in his mouth] I don’t think I can go back out there.

      Frank: You trying to protect your pride, little girl? Get the fuck out there before I give you another concussion.

      [Kid faints]

      Frank: Fuckin’ pussy.

      And… scene.

      Fuck right off with your personal attacks, Frank. I don’t come at your professional acumen just because you have a fucked up sense of argumentation. (i.e. “BUT HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT RURULAND HASN’T HAD HIS OWN ACL INJURY, THCJ? HUH?”)

      It doesn’t matter if ruruland broke his fucking neck in a basketball accident. Derrick Rose’s injury is his fucking own, and you and none of the lackeys on this site are in no position to psychoanalyze him based on an assumption that his knee is fine. I don’t give a fuck what the doctors say. Rose knows when he’s ready.

      And I…

    17. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      iserp: Uh? What predictions? I mean ACTUAL predictions… the only kind of predictions i’ve seen for WP48 is that after all the season has happened … if i had the WP48 i just calculated, i could have predicted exactly the number of wins. Which is totally biased, because… ahem … you knew the results before predicting anything.

      If WP48 is to be really tested, proponents have to be serious about its research. Obviously you can’t predict injuries, or how well rookies will translate to the NBA; and i feel it would be acceptable to have that kind of input to make the kind of retroactive predictions WP proponents use. But if you fully calculate a new set of WP48 the exercise is futile. The correlation will be the best (obviously), but that idealized “predictive power” is just bad methodology.

      Wrong. Totally wrong. The WP formula does not change from season to season. The average adjusted WP changes, but that is a simple normalization. A great center (relatively to his peers) in 2013 is likely worth more than a great center in ’95.

      WP predicts based on historical trends. Do you want to see the numbers? They’re really not all that exciting. Aside from whiffing on the Nets, Warriors, and Timberwolves (understandably with all the injuries), they look pretty tight.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

    18. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And for all you know I’ve had ACL/MCL repairs on both knees. Or I don’t. Or maybe it was just one.

      Either way, it’s not your fucking knee so it’s not your fucking decision to make. Do you like that tone? Because yeah, I’m a little heated about this “sacrifice for the good of team” bullshit going around professional sports these days.

      Honestly, I think you’d make a great Pee-Wee football coach, Frank.

      Frank: You took quite the shot on that last play.


      Kid: I’m a little woozy, coach. [leans against table with orange slices and Capri-sun pouches]

      Frank: It’s okay. When I played football, I got my bell rung all the time. You play through the pain. You think this game is about you, kid?

      Kid: No, coach. I just [throws up in his mouth] I don’t think I can go back out there.

      Frank: You trying to protect your pride, little girl? Get the fuck out there before I give you another concussion.

      [Kid faints]

      Frank: Fuckin’ pussy.

      And… scene.

      Fuck right off with your personal attacks, Frank. I don’t come at your professional acumen just because you have a fucked up sense of argumentation. (i.e. “BUT HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT RURULAND HASN’T HAD HIS OWN ACL INJURY, THCJ? HUH?”)

      It doesn’t matter if ruruland broke his fucking neck in a basketball accident. Derrick Rose’s injury is his fucking own, and you and none of the lackeys on this site are in no position to psychoanalyze him based on an assumption that his knee is fine. I don’t give a fuck what the doctors say. Rose knows when he’s ready.

      And I…

      lol

    19. Frank O.

      Holy crap. where did all the ugly come from?
      The Knicks are about to play their second playoff game.
      They stand a good chance of winning it and the series, and they’re likely to get back a few injured guys as they go.
      Good times.
      On Rose, I’m glad he’s not playing.

      last point, I think if Amare had not been injured, JR doesn’t get sixth man, and Amare may have won it even in an abbreviated season. The guy was a beast.
      lol

    20. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Wrong. Totally wrong. The WP formula does not change from season to season. The average adjusted WP changes, but that is a simple normalization. A great center (relatively to his peers) in 2013 is likely worth more than a great center in ’95.

      WP predicts based on historical trends. Do you want to see the numbers? They’re really not all that exciting. Aside from whiffing on the Nets, Warriors, and Timberwolves (understandably with all the injuries), they look pretty tight.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

      The reality though is that prediction for a large number of teams is fairly straight forward, so saying something they “mostly look pretty tight” isn’t a very impressive standard.

      By my count WS?48 worst misses were: They’re 10 wins low on Miami, 17 low on the Nets, 7 high for Orlando, 8 low for the Thunder, 21 high for Minnesota, 11 low for Memphis, 15 high for New Orleans, 10 low for Golden State, and 8 low for the Mavs.

      Lets compare that to somebody else’s predictions. I picked Matt Moore for CBS sicne that’s what came up when I googled. His worst misses were: 8 high for Boston, 7 low for New York, 13 high for Philly, 18 high on the Lakers, 9 low on the Clippers, 14 high on the T Wolves, 8 high on Phoenix, 15 low on the Rockets (makes me think these predictions were pre-Harden deal).

      Based on the comparison worst misses in only 1 year’s predictions (not the best way to do it obviously) it doesn’t seem like they’re doing much better than any idiot with a basketball blog. If they know some big secret shouldn’t they do better than that?

    21. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Well, if you care about ruruland’s opinion, I guessed last year’s record perfectly but I did it using the wrong data, so it was invalid. So there’s that.

      I don’t think anyone could foresee something like a 27-game win streak or Rondo, Rush, or Lou Williams’s knee injuries. And the Lakers? What the hell happened, there? Kobe’s best season in years and they barely make the playoffs? Unforeseeable. No one had them as an 8-seed.

    22. Juany8

      thenamestsam: The reality though is that prediction for a large number of teams is fairly straight forward, so saying something they “mostly look pretty tight” isn’t a very impressive standard.

      By my count WS?48 worst misses were: They’re 10 wins low on Miami, 17 low on the Nets, 7 high for Orlando, 8 low for the Thunder, 21 high for Minnesota, 11 low for Memphis, 15 high for New Orleans, 10 low for Golden State, and 8 low for the Mavs.

      Lets compare that to somebody else’s predictions. I picked Matt Moore for CBS sicne that’s what came up when I googled. His worst misses were: 8 high for Boston, 7 low for New York, 13 high for Philly, 18 high on the Lakers, 9 low on the Clippers, 14 high on the T Wolves, 8 high on Phoenix, 15 low on the Rockets (makes me think these predictions were pre-Harden deal).

      Based on the comparison worst misses in only 1 year’s predictions (not the best way to do it obviously) it doesn’t seem like they’re doing much better than any idiot with a basketball blog. If they know some big secret shouldn’t they do better than that?

      There’s a simple way to test WP’s predictive power. Plug the wp48 numbers for this season into the minutes played of the next season, and see how close the results match up. This eliminates injury issues and coaching decisions since that will be accounted for with the actual minutes played. Any time someone has done any kind of study like this to test WP’s predictive power, it tends to do the worst out of any of the main systems. Hollinger’s numbers usually end up being some of the best, amusingly enough.

      Truth is that if the system was at all good at predicting outcomes, berri wouldn’t need to result to squirrelly and obviously dumb justifications, like saying that the system works becuase player statistics correlate year to year. Nobody cares if they do….

    23. thenamestsam

      Juany8: There’s a simple way to test WP’s predictive power. Plug the wp48 numbers for this season into the minutes played of the next season, and see how close the results match up. This eliminates injury issues and coaching decisions since that will be accounted for with the actual minutes played. Any time someone has done any kind of study like this to test WP’s predictive power, it tends to do the worst out of any of the main systems. Hollinger’s numbers usually end up being some of the best, amusingly enough.

      Truth is that if the system was at all good at predicting outcomes, berri wouldn’t need to result to squirrelly and obviously dumb justifications, like saying that the system works becuase player statistics correlate year to year. Nobody cares if they do….

      Fails to factor in the possibility of improvement or decline in the player’s abilities, but that would be an interesting study. Do you have a link?

    24. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And for all you know I’ve had ACL/MCL repairs on both knees. Or I don’t. Or maybe it was just one.

      Either way, it’s not your fucking knee so it’s not your fucking decision to make. Do you like that tone? Because yeah, I’m a little heated about this “sacrifice for the good of team” bullshit going around professional sports these days.

      Honestly, I think you’d make a great Pee-Wee football coach, Frank.

      Frank: You took quite the shot on that last play.


      Kid: I’m a little woozy, coach. [leans against table with orange slices and Capri-sun pouches]

      Frank: It’s okay. When I played football, I got my bell rung all the time. You play through the pain. You think this game is about you, kid?

      Kid: No, coach. I just [throws up in his mouth] I don’t think I can go back out there.

      Frank: You trying to protect your pride, little girl? Get the fuck out there before I give you another concussion.

      [Kid faints]

      Frank: Fuckin’ pussy.

      And… scene.

      Fuck right off with your personal attacks, Frank. I don’t come at your professional acumen just because you have a fucked up sense of argumentation. (i.e. “BUT HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT RURULAND HASN’T HAD HIS OWN ACL INJURY, THCJ? HUH?”)

      It doesn’t matter if ruruland broke his fucking neck in a basketball accident. Derrick Rose’s injury is his fucking own, and you and none of the lackeys on this site are in no position to psychoanalyze him based on an assumption that his knee is fine. I don’t give a fuck what the doctors say. Rose knows when he’s ready.

      And I…

      Professor Cock Jowles, ladies and gentleman

    25. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Well, if you care about ruruland’s opinion, I guessed last year’s record perfectly but I did it using the wrong data, so it was invalid. So there’s that.

      So you only do multiple choice tests I presume.

    26. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: Fails to factor in the possibility of improvement or decline in the player’s abilities, but that would be an interesting study. Do you have a link?

      It tries to factor in projections based on similar players at similar ages.

    27. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland: So you only do multiple choice tests I presume.

      I only let them write from personal expertise. A+ papers always have conjecture bookended with remarks like, “But I know this because I’m basically an expert. If you had as much experience as an expert as I do, you’d agree. But you don’t, so you won’t.”

      You’d do well.

    28. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: It tries to factor in projections based on similar players at similar ages.

      http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/how-wins-produced-fails-in-being-the-magical-assessor-of-player-value/

      “All they’re doing is dressing up a team’s efficiency numbers and allotting each piece to a player, and then summing those results to show how close they’re correlated to wins. Well, of course they are; everyone knows a team’s points scored and allowed per possession can explain wins. If you have the audacity to ask them how defense can be explained by steals, blocks and rebounds, you’ll get a response about how your little brain can’t comprehend a counterintuitive result. My advice is to view Wins Produced as an interesting summation of box score stats, and not to sway your complete view of a player. Using Wins Produced as your only method in evaluation a player is like zooming in on one feature of an animal. Maybe that one part can lead you to a conclusion about the rest of the animal, but you could likely become the blind man holding the elephant’s trunk and believe it’s a snake instead of something much more powerful.”

    29. Juany8

      thenamestsam: Fails to factor in the possibility of improvement or decline in the player’s abilities, but that would be an interesting study. Do you have a link?

      Cant find it right now unfortunately :/ still it should be really easy for Berri himself to do if he had half a mind to it. The fact that he doesn’t bother with the most important obvious bit of proof that his system is valid probably means the numbers are ugly. Or that Berri is just trolling the Internet as some kind of thought experiment on how easy it is to dupe people with statistics. Unfortunately Berri is not the only person I’ve seen involved in academia that makes ridiculous proclamations based on wild assumptions and faulty data, only to vigorously insult anyone who doesn’t agree with them as an anti-intellectual. It’s the same style of “debate” we see when anyone who didnt support the Iraq war was labeled unamerican, or how anyone who thinks welfare programs will bankrupt this country is a rascist who hates the poor. It’s easier to throw insults than it is to use logic, especially if you have no logic to stand on….

    30. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I only let them write from personal expertise. A+ papers always have conjecture bookended with remarks like, “But I know this because I’m basically an expert. If you had as much experience as an expert as I do, you’d agree. But you don’t, so you won’t.”

      You’d do well.

      You use this line every time.

      Pretending that I only use conjecture in my posts does not make it so no matter how many times you repeat it.

      Find someone on this board who will agree with you. Not even Owen will agree with you on that.

      If WP is your expertise, you are either terribly ignorant or intellectually constrained in defending it.

      Every time we have one of these discussions you run and hide.

    31. Juany8

      ruruland: http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/how-wins-produced-fails-in-being-the-magical-assessor-of-player-value/

      “All they’re doing is dressing up a team’s efficiency numbers and allotting each piece to a player, and then summing those results to show how close they’re correlated to wins. Well, of course they are; everyone knows a team’s points scored and allowed per possession can explain wins. If you have the audacity to ask them how defense can be explained by steals, blocks and rebounds, you’ll get a response about how your little brain can’t comprehend a counterintuitive result. My advice is to view Wins Produced as an interesting summation of box score stats, and not to sway your complete view of a player.Using Wins Produced as your only method in evaluation a player is like zooming in on one feature of an animal. Maybe that one part can lead you to a conclusion about the rest of the animal, but you could likely become the blind man holding the elephant’s trunk and believe it’s a snake instead of something much more powerful.”

      Lol this article summed up my feelings exactly. I actually started posting on this board because I always hated the arrogance with which they defended such an obviously flawed model. My first post here was basically ripping the stat apart. Now only THCJ makes any reference to it, even the other statistically oriented members of this board don’t use it for serious analysis.

    32. thenamestsam

      ruruland: http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/how-wins-produced-fails-in-being-the-magical-assessor-of-player-value/

      “All they’re doing is dressing up a team’s efficiency numbers and allotting each piece to a player, and then summing those results to show how close they’re correlated to wins. Well, of course they are; everyone knows a team’s points scored and allowed per possession can explain wins. If you have the audacity to ask them how defense can be explained by steals, blocks and rebounds, you’ll get a response about how your little brain can’t comprehend a counterintuitive result. My advice is to view Wins Produced as an interesting summation of box score stats, and not to sway your complete view of a player.Using Wins Produced as your only method in evaluation a player is like zooming in on one feature of an animal. Maybe that one part can lead you to a conclusion about the rest of the animal, but you could likely become the blind man holding the elephant’s trunk and believe it’s a snake instead of something much more powerful.”

      Interesting article. Thanks for posting.

    33. jon abbey

      “My advice is to view Wins Produced as an interesting summation of box score stats”

      and the really funny part about this is that box score stats suck, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum. rebounds are sometimes misleading, shot attempts are often misleading (like the game where Melo missed five shots he immediately put back for hoops himself), assists are often misleading (the guy who draws the double often gets no credit), turnovers are often credited wrong, etc.

      it’s the Scientology of ‘advanced stats’, thoroughly amusing.

    34. ruruland

      A great post from someone I respect a lot:
      “What? No, that is not at all the critism of WP48. The method is inconsistent, that is one issue, the other issue is that things on a team level do not scale down to the individual level. Berri assumes two specific things he NEVER showed are true. First, that each boxscore metric has an intrinsic value which can be determined by regression, and second that each player can be looked at as if he would be a “team”. Neither things were shown by Berri nor are those two things true.

      Berri’s way of “proving” his metric is completely inconsistent and does not show anything. You can basically take the uniform numbers, adjust them by “position” and then make a team adjustment and the result will be a pretty much “perfect” correlation to the overall team wins. The high correlation is controlled by the adjustments not by the initial unadjusted metric. I showed that in another thread by just taking a scoring rate, adjust that with a team defensive adjustment and I get an even better correlation than Berri. I can make the same steps to “prove” that this metric has some value and get the very same result as Berri. Well, Berri is ignoring two very important biases: selection bias and hindsight bias.”

      Cont: “The players are pre-selected by scouts and coaches and will in almost all cases be used in a similar way. No coach will try to make his “enforcer” to be his main “scorer” for example. The players will have similar roles and minutes in consecutive seasons. That just a simple fact. And using hindsight data to predict something which already happened is not something which is really impressive. In fact, we have a better method to predict team wins, pythagorean expectation, than the linear relationship Berri is using….”

    35. ruruland

      “….Berri’s method is inconsistent, because at the beginning he is proposing that boxscore entries would have intrinsic value which can be determined by regression. Well, Berri is doing one regression and one regression only, he uses linear regression to determine the win% by using offense and defensive efficiency as independent variables. After that Berri is using league average values to determine the marginal values of each boxscore entry. So far, so good. The issue is that now we get a pretty good differentiation between players, bigs are incredible valuable while smalls are not. At that point Berri is doing something which is completely unscientific, he is introducing an adjustment for somewhat arbritrary positions. Well, if Berri would have stayed with his original hypothesis, he would have just taken the results and would have concluded that bigs are in fact more valuable than smalls. By changing that make the assumption that each “position” would be equally valuable, he also changes the marginal values for each different position. In that way 2pt scoresd by a center are less valuable than 2pt scored by a point guard. Makes no sense to everyone except to Berri and his followers.
      That step also is very important in regard to the consistency. Because adjusting for position just means that boxscore entries do not have an intrinsic value, thus we can’t use regression in order to determine such value. That makes the whole thing complete bogus.

      Well, and at the end Berri does also assume that every player on a specific team has the same impact on the overall team defense. He is basically saying that each player is the same in terms of help or weakside defense. That is obviously complete nonsense, but Berri believes that this is true. That adjustment is rather important, because it controls the correlation between WP48 and overall team wins….”

    36. ruruland

      .”…Can we show that all what I wrote is actually true? Yes, we can. Two things in which WP48 would need to perform worse are correlations to lineup performance level and in out of sample tests. WP48 can’t say anything about the lineup performance, we can use a coin and will have the same ability to predict lineup performances as WP48. Other boxscore metrics such as Win Shares or my SPM are MUCH better regarding this. The other question is the out of sample test. Even when we take the real values in the respective season for rookies into account WP48 is worse than basically everything else except of PER. WP48 as a tool is worthless in terms of predicting outcome of games in the future.

      Which fellow economists? Seriously, Berri is publishing his stuff in low-impact journals, sometimes Berri himself is in the editorial board or was. Berri is basically publishing his stuff without any kind of serious peer-review. He is not cited by any meaningful people and the only citations you can find are those from people in his staff or those who are critizing the method.
      We also talk about a group of people which have not a strong mathematical background. They can use SPSS in order to make a regression, that’s basically it. The APBR comunity consists of people with a PhD in math, physics, etc., a much stronger mathematical background than that of those economy people. As a geophysicist I had more math in my first 2 semesters than Berri in his whole life, just to make clear what kind of differences we are talking about.

      Hollinger does not claim that his method is scientific, but his methods are all open. No idea how you can say otherwise. Rosenbaum has also described his method in great detail and the work by others is influenced by that. The difference between those +/- based people and Berri is: A lot of them are actually really working for teams and thus do not publish their results openly. But with enough math knowledge we can easily reproduce such things.

    37. jon abbey

      awesome stuff, ruru. another example of why it’s a real shame we don’t have a more permanent format here, so this kind of thing could be easily relinked.

    38. Juany8

      Well put Ruru’s friend, it’s like he synthesized every argument made against WP and then wrote it in one go. He didnt even bother mentioning that even if the box score stats could be used to entirely describe a player’s performance, the current box score is a pile of crap. I bet you that if each of us tried to make a box score for every Knicks game of the season, every single one of us would have different numbers for everything but scoring. I bet it turns out that turnovers and assists are nowhere near close either. Wonder how it would affect a point guard’a value if assists were tallied by someone who had a vested interest in seeing that player do well. Like maybe the fans who actually keep the box scores every game.

    39. Frank

      I won’t requote THCJ’s wild tantrum, but let’s just recap:

      1) Ruruland says that doctors have cleared him to play, he’s dominating practices, and so he should try to play. (Note: despite whatever bad storytelling THCJ came up with, I agree that at the end of the day, if Rose doesn’t feel his knee is right, then maybe he shouldn’t play. I would say that he should just say that the knee isn’t right yet, as opposed to “Only God knows when I’m coming back”)

      2) THCJ mocks any opinion ruruland has because he just knows that ruruland doesn’t have any personal experience with it– and I quote:

      “You ever rehab from a knee injury for 12 months? You’re the consummate analyst, so you must have some sort of insight.”

      3) Frank calls out THCJ for just assuming that Ruru has had an injury-less life. And then admittedly throws in a personal dig about THCJ’s fitness to teach students anything. (another aside – did a teacher of students really just say that as long as you get the right answer it doesn’t matter how you got there?)

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Well, if you care about ruruland’s opinion, I guessed last year’s record perfectly but I did it using the wrong data, so it was invalid. So there’s that.

      4) THCJ goes postal with a poorly written drama about Frank and some pee-wee football player — never mind that Frank hadn’t said anything about Derrick Rose at all — he only said that THCJ shouldn’t make assumptions about people he doesn’t know at all.

      Not even sure why I’m getting wrapped up in this, but it’s just another example of THCJ and his North Korea-like brinksmanship. Call me out? I’ll just yell louder! Doesn’t matter if there’s any truth to what I say!

    40. Juany8

      On the other hand guys, THCJ won. We just filled up an entire thread repeating arguments that have been presented ad nauseum against someone that is clearly not interested in changing his point of view. There’s a Knicks playoffs game today, in a series against the celtics which we are both winning and likely to continue doing so, and we’re sitting here talking about wins produced. The rose injury discussion was at least interesting from a philosophical perspective.

    41. Frank

      Juany8: Wonder how it would affect a point guard’a value if assists were tallied by someone who had a vested interest in seeing that player do well. Like maybe the fans who actually keep the box scores every game.

      There was a lot of talk about assist-padding in New Orleans for Darren Collison after CP3 went down with injury a few years back. If I remember correctly there was a pretty reasonable disparity between home/away assists numbers.

    42. jon abbey

      Juany8:
      On the other hand guys, THCJ won. We just filled up an entire thread repeating arguments that have been presented ad nauseum against someone that is clearly not interested in changing his point of view. There’s a Knicks playoffs game today, in a series against the celtics which we are both winning and likely to continue doing so, and we’re sitting here talking about wins produced. The rose injury discussion was at least interesting from a philosophical perspective.

      not so much Knicks to talk about that we haven’t done already. we need Chandler to be more of a factor (he couldn’t be much less), we need the tiny starting lineup of Prigioni/Felton/Shumpert to not get killed by Green and Pierce, and some foul trouble for a couple of key Boston guys would be nice too.

    43. Frank

      Juany8:
      On the other hand guys, THCJ won. We just filled up an entire thread repeating arguments that have been presented ad nauseum against someone that is clearly not interested in changing his point of view. There’s a Knicks playoffs game today, in a series against the celtics which we are both winning and likely to continue doing so, and we’re sitting here talking about wins produced. The rose injury discussion was at least interesting from a philosophical perspective.

      lol – the thing is, I actually enjoy THCJ being here. Most of the threads are just mudslinging, but at least it brings entertainment value. And I especially love it when he gives us cogent analysis like this:

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      ??? ???? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? Jowles? ?? ?? ??? ? ?????!

      =)

    44. Frank

      jon abbey: not so much Knicks to talk about that we haven’t done already. we need Chandler to be more of a factor (he couldn’t be much less), we need the tiny starting lineup of Prigioni/Felton/Shumpert to not get killed by Green and Pierce, and some foul trouble for a couple of key Boston guys would be nice too.

      yeah most of the talk from the beatwriters said that Woodson is trying to keep JR from getting into foul trouble early guarding Pierce – but actually I’d be more concerned with Felton getting into foul trouble early. JR’s volume scoring is useful, but we have a few guys that can do that. Losing Felton’s ability to penetrate (and his offensive rebounding ability!!!) because of early foul trouble would be just as big a loss IMHO.

    45. thenamestsam

      Anyway as much fun as it is reading people debunk Berri over and over again (and I do enjoy it) I heard somewhere that the Knicks are playing a pretty important game tonight, so here are a few thoughts on that. Immediately after watching the first game live at MSG I was extremely enthusiastic. My feeling was that we played like absolute crap and still won. After rewatching it on TV i started feeling worse, and I’ve been getting less and less confident over the last couple days. That’s probably just mostly the result of being traumatized by 15 years of failure but I felt like when I watched the game the second time they consistently got better shots than us, especially (obviously) in the first half. Now fortunately we have much better role players than them, so we knocked down more 3s than they did even though a bunch of theirs were wide open and from the corner, but I felt like they did some things against us that present longer term worries.

      On defense we know the concerns. We rely so much on switching and the consequent doubling that our rotations always have to be on point or teams end up with easy layups and open corner 3s. There were times when Boston got wide open corner 3s off something as simple as passing to Pierce in the post, waiting for the double, and swinging it around the perimeter. Nothing fancy, no misdirection, just the simplest possible offense. Needs to tighten up or we’re really gambling on Terry, Lee, and Bradley not getting hot.

      On offense I’m worried that we showed some of the same problems with having too many one dimensional guys that we had last year. Boston ran Novak, Copeland, Kidd, Shumpert, Felton, etc. off the 3 point line and dared them to create things in the lane. Felton handled it well and had a really nice game, but the others looked a little lost. Close outs are a half a step quicker in the playoffs and I’m worried that may impact our offense more than it does for other teams.

    46. mcliff05

      Really interesting breakdown. The arbitrary position adjustment seems to muddy the validity of the end result. l appreciate you bringing these resources to the blog becuase I certainly dont have the time to analyze these figures or actively seek out educated opinions of people who do.

      Also, it comes across a bit hypocritical to denigrate community college. Elitism is not a good look, especially since you are criticizing the very same tactic used by people defending this metric.

    47. jon abbey

      nice rundown, thenamesteam. the thing I’d add is that we’ve got to get into the offense a little quicker, don’t just let Boston stand around for 18 seconds without working on each possession.

      Boston has only gone down 2-0 twice in 16 postseason series under Rivers, both to Miami. it’s not going to be easy to make it three, but I think the Knicks know that very well.

    48. BigBlueAL

      Gonna be very interesting to see the Knicks defensive strategy to start the game. Woodson said yesterday with Prigs starting Game 2 Felton will cover Pierce and Shump Green. Im worried this will mean alot of aimless double-teaming at the start leading to alot of open 3pters and layups for the Celtics. Or if their rotations are on point like they were in the 2nd half of Game 1 alot of forced turnovers.

      Again very curious to see how the Knicks start off defensively tonight.

    49. thenamestsam

      jon abbey:
      nice rundown, thenamesteam. the thing I’d add is that we’ve got to get into the offense a little quicker, don’t just let Boston stand around for 18 seconds without working on each possession.

      Very valid point. Given how much they fall off defensively when KG isn’t on the floor and that he can’t possibly be in great shape given how little he has played recently I think it’s especially critical to make them work hard every possession.

      BigBlueAL:
      Gonna be very interesting to see the Knicks defensive strategy to start the game.Woodson said yesterday with Prigs starting Game 2 Felton will cover Pierce and Shump Green.Im worried this will mean alot of aimless double-teaming at the start leading to alot of open 3pters and layups for the Celtics.Or if their rotations are on point like they were in the 2nd half of Game 1 alot of forced turnovers.

      Again very curious to see how the Knicks start off defensively tonight.

      Yeah, that’s a big concern. I’d almost rather let Pierce post Felton 1 on 1 and try to score early then double every possession and give up a bunch of open 3s. Pierce settled for foul line jumpers a few times that I remember in Game 1 when he had a guard on him, and I’m not sure he has the legs left to carry that team with a 35-40 point type night. If we can keep their secondary scorers from finding a rhythm I think we’ll be in good shape. The important thing is to make them pay for the mismatch at the other end as well. Prigs will have to look to be assertive and use his quickness advantage against whoever is guarding him.

    50. jon abbey

      “I’m not sure he has the legs left to carry that team with a 35-40 point type night. ”

      I am sure he does, unfortunately. hopefully it won’t be enough to win, but it’s coming.

    51. Juany8

      I think we’re understating some of the Things the Knicks did, JR missed a lot of wide open 3′s for instance, and the ball movement suffered without Prigs to act as a nice relief valve for the offense. I don’t think the Knicks are about to run away with the series, but you can’t really expect Jeff green to play like James worthy consistently can you? I predict a series a lot like last year’s finals, a bunch of close games where one team is nevertheless superior and ends up winning in 5.

    52. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:

      WP predicts based on historical trends. Do you want to see the numbers? They’re really not all that exciting. Aside from whiffing on the Nets, Warriors, and Timberwolves (understandably with all the injuries), they look pretty tight.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

      amusingly just saw this post where it showed they were right near the bottom with these predictions, hehe:

      http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2013/04/23/checking-2012-13-nba-win-predictions-projections/

    53. nicos

      thenamestsam: Prigs will have to look to be assertive and use his quickness advantage against whoever is guarding him.

      This is what worries me about starting Prigs in the playoffs- he can’t pound the ball on the perimeter as he’s wont to do. He can’t pass up open looks late in the clock. He has to be willing to drive the lane on occasion. He’s done those things only sporadically during the regular season so I’m expecting big things from him. I think he’ll help a lot when Felton’s off the floor but I’d guess Woodson will be forced to go big (or at least bigger) rather than Doc going small to match Prigs.

    54. Hubert Davis

      johnno:
      – After seeing what Woodson has been able to do with a guy like JR Smith, I would have loved to have seen if he could have gotten through to a knucklehead like Nate Robinson.

      Could we end up seeing this if JR leaves?

      That would liven up the comments here.

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