The Honorable Cock Jowles:
I’d rather live in Toronto than NYC. Cleaner, cheaper, and safer. Plus, NBA players don’t spend much time at home during the winter months. Why would he care that it’s frigid as hell in the winter? Summertime in Montreal and Toronto is like Chicago: sunny, clear, and sun-dressy. Plus I hear Canadians are a nice people.

all of this.

toronto is a great, cosmopolitan, beautiful , clean, safe city. the summer is the nuts there with all the sailboats on lake ontario, a huge ethnic southern chinese community. its is a nicer city than nyc. it has all of the good things and less of the crap.

Frank:
I’m not selling Toronto short from my personal point of view. I’m just saying that the last time any coveted free agent ever considered Toronto was….never.

This is incorrect. I remembered reading about this when Turkoglu was signing there:

http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2009/07/how-toronto-charmed-turkoglu-and-wife/

I’m not saying Turkoglu is good, but any player commanding over $10M a year should be considered a “coveted” FA.

If the Raptors offer Lin a max contract, I think he signs it, hoping that the Knicks match but ready to move to the Great White North.

Exactly. That’s what I was referring to. Lin would be signing it figuring the Knicks would match and if they don’t, hey, it’s a guaranteed $36 million for four years instead of $10 million for two years. And again, this is before he knows if he will be healthy next season and before he knows if he won’t suffer another injury next season. Heck, he doesn’t even know that he’ll play well next year (okay, I imagine he is pretty confident that he will play well next year).

And, again, if the Knicks are making it clear that they will match any offer, what is the risk to Toronto? Three days of not signing anyone when they won’t be signing anyone anyways? The guys the Raptors will end up getting are the ones who shop around until they settle for Toroto. There is no one nearly as good as Lin that they’re going to miss out on by not being in the game for three days. No one. Plus, if the Knicks match, at least they screw up the cap room of a team in their own division. So there is basically zero risk for Toronto to sign Lin to a $36 million contract. Except, of course, the aforementioned risk that he could get hurt or not be as good as we hope/think he will be.

Frank: I’m not selling Toronto short from my personal point of view. I’m just saying that the last time any coveted free agent ever considered Toronto was….never.

I take Toronto as a more serious threat, because the cultural issues that push many other free agents away cut differently for Lin. Toronto’s population is more than 12% Chinese, with big immigration from Hong Kong. When Lin hit the big late 3 against the Raptors, at least 20% of the crowd went nuts for him.

If the Raptors offer Lin a max contract, I think he signs it, hoping that the Knicks match but ready to move to the Great White North.

I hear all the talk about no young player ever having turned down this kind of money. I really just don’t see him leaving for Toronto.

No young player has ever walk away signing huge contract. If Toronto only team that pony up and give max offer which I believe is around 36 million. I will wager he does not walk away from that. Also look situation – he has not made ton money, this provides instant financial stability against injuries and I think agent f-up on not getting more Christian friendly endorsement. Seriously – just Volvo deal?

I would bet Dolan still matches that offer.

Lin has to really WANT to go to Toronto in order to even sign that offer sheet, because you know what? There are lots of good PGs on the market, including certain HoFer that lives in NYC in the offseason and might take a MLE deal that would be left over if Lin goes to Toronto, and the Knicks just might not match a crazy offer. And then he’s stuck playing in another country with Bargnani and Amir Johnson rather than Tyson Chandler, Amare, and Melo.

The only team that makes me nervous is NJ- if they strike out with DWill they are certain to come after Lin. And they will have tons of cap space, a new arena, and the urban rep of Brooklyn as a draw for other FAs.

I think ephus’s prediction is the most likely thing. Lin resigns with us for MLE x 2 years with a 3rd year player option. And then we have to hope JR and NOvak take below market deals, and that a decent backup PG decides to come for the minimum.