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Monday, October 20, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Jul 19 2012)

  • [New York Post] Johnson, D’Antoni ‘point’ out surprise at Lin’s Knicks departure (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 03:36:36 -0500)
    The two head coaches who witnessed the birth of “Linsanityâ? Feb. 4 at the Garden, the Nets’ Avery Johnson, who was foiled by it, and former Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni, who thrived with it, expressed varying degrees of surprise Wednesday that Jeremy Lin was allowed to go to Houston…

  • [New York Post] Rocket-shippin’ Lin says he preferred New York (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 03:21:18 -0500)
    Jeremy Lin did not want to leave New York.
    But now, after the Knicks declined to match the Rockets’ 3-year, $25.1 million offer sheet with its virulent third-year luxury-tax implications, Lin acknowledged the Knicks were his first choice.
    “Honestly, I preferred New York,â? Lin told Sports Illustrated. “But my…

  • [New York Times] Daryl Morey Has Second Shot With Jeremy Lin (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 05:40:16 GMT)
    Daryl Morey, the Houston Rockets’ general manager, wants redemption for failing to spot Jeremy Lin’s talent the first time around.

  • [New York Times] On Basketball: Dolan Breaks Faith With Knicks Fans Again (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 05:09:06 GMT)
    James L. Dolan, the Madison Square Garden chairman, has been unwilling to do what he continually asks of Knicks fans: keep the faith and invest in the potential for success.

  • [New York Times] Sports Business: Lin Is Gone, and So Is the Buzz (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 05:09:06 GMT)
    About 13 hours after the Knicks declined to match the Rockets’ offer sheet to Jeremy Lin, his merchandise at one sporting goods chain was heavily discounted.

  • [New York Times] Brook Lopez and Nets Are Happy With Each Other, for Now (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 07:00:22 GMT)
    The Nets held a nice-that-you’re-still-around news conference for the 7-footer Brook Lopez, who had been dangled as a piece in the Dwight Howard trade talks.

  • [New York Times] Vendors and Fans Begin Switch to Lin’s New Team (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 07:09:07 GMT)
    Hours after the Knicks’ announcement, online clothing sellers were advertising Jeremy Lin Rockets T-shirts with the No. 17.

  • [New York Times] Trail Blazers Match T-Wolves Offer for Batum (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 02:39:37 GMT)
    The Portland Trail Blazers weren’t bluffing about Nicolas Batum after all.

  • [New York Times] Source: Antawn Jamison Will Sign With Lakers (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 02:36:48 GMT)
    Antawn Jamison is joining up with Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash to chase a championship with the Los Angeles Lakers.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: McHale Sees Lin as a Starter and a Leader (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 00:49:45 GMT)
    Houston Coach Kevin McHale, who won three N.B.A. titles as a player, told Jeremy Lin on Tuesday night to get ready for a journey, one that would be different from his whirlwind in New York.

  • [New York Daily News] Lin admits he wanted to stay with Knicks (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 05:36:32 GMT)
    Jeremy Lin said Wednesday that he “preferred New York” over Houston, but admitted he is now “relieved” to be joining the Rockets.

  • [New York Daily News] Lawrence: From comfort of Houston, Lin changes story on Miami (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 05:35:45 GMT)
    Even with the Knicks losing Iman Shumpert to injury in Gameâ??1, Jeremy Lin didn’t want to play and he did not play. His choice. But he hasn’t just changed his story.

  • [New York Daily News] Lin marketer tries to rope in Houston market (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 03:19:05 GMT)
    There have been worse business days for Brandon Steiner in the last 25 years of running the sports marketing and collectibles firm that bears his last name.

  • [New York Daily News] Avery happy to Net own free agents (Thu, 19 Jul 2012 03:13:19 GMT)
    Avery Johnson has a general philosophy regarding free agents such as Jeremy Lin.

  • 318 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Jul 19 2012)

    1. Z-man

      Looks like the Bulls are not going to match for Asik. Wait, Dolan owns the Bulls as well?

      Why do people keep saying “35 games” for Lin? He played 9 games of garbage time minutes before D’Antoni put him in vs. Rockets. So his Knicks career as something other than the 11th-12th man off the bench was 26 games. His record in those games: 16-10. His record after the first 7 games: 9-10. Including 7 games in the Woodson era where he shot poorly and less than 5.5 assists per game. He shot a consistent whopping .325 from 3 for all 26 games.

      He got absolutely abused by Rondo, Deron, and Chalmers. Then his knee gave out. Good news is, he has a very healthy and fresh left hand, because it was hardly used by season’s end.

      But of course, just ignore all that. Lin is clearly better than Felton based on those first 10 games. He is sure thing, a guaranteed future all star, maybe a hall of famer. He’s only a left hand, a consistent perimeter shot and a healthy knee away from being the next Steve Nash. Who, by the way, never made more than $13,125,000 salary in a season.

      I can’t wait to see Westbroook, Nash, Parker and Lawson put an end to Linsanity permanently, and Houston struggle to win 30 games with Lin and Asik as their core players who will cost them $30 million in 2014-15. And when that happens, Dolan and Grunwald will look like geniuses for not matching that ridiculous contract but nobody will give them any credit.

      Mark my words, we will miss Landry Fields more than Jeremy Lin.

    2. Frank

      Z-man: I can’t wait to see Westbroook, Nash, Parker and Lawson put an end to Linsanity permanently, and Houston struggle to win 30 games with Lin and Asik as their core players who will cost them $30 million in 2014-15. And when that happens, Dolan and Grunwald will look like geniuses for not matching that ridiculous contract but nobody will give them any credit.

      You might be right – but remember, McHale’s system made stars out of Kyle Lowry and Dragic, both of whom were pretty middling guards before he got there. Unfortunately, there’s just not enough talent there to get them into the playoffs IMHO, and Morey will just be back where he started. But if the Rockets get Howard? Howard is a GREAT PNR player, and there may be a new Lob City if Howard gets there.

      It’s likely Lin will put up big #s in that system – probably still with high TO numbers, probably will never be a good on-ball defender (maybe will be adequate, like Nash).

      btw, Rondo and Deron abuse everyone. Did you see what Rondo did to Miami’s vaunted defense?

      No question, Chalmers’s D made Lin look bad though. Thing is – Lin’s only 23. He can work on ballhandling, breaking the press, etc.

      It’s a tough situation – I’ve come to terms with it even though it feels like my dog just died or something. It’s a totally defensible decision now that I’ve had 3-4 days to get past the initial emotion of it. I don’t like it, I wish they had done otherwise, but I can’t kill it anymore. The only issue is that our team is OLLLLLD. Veteran teams win championships – OLD teams probably do not.

    3. Z-man

      Frank, I would have LOVED to have Lin back. I only take issue with those who think it was a no-brainer to match that crazy contract. You have to make an enormous leap of faith to assume that the Lin of the first 10 games was the real deal and the Lin of the last 16 games was just unlucky or injured or hampered by Melo’s petulance, whatever. Both my eyes and the stats said otherwise, that the bloom was off the rose. It doesn’t help that he is a marked man right now. As I said, he will make more money in that one year than Steve Nash EVER did in any year. After 25 games? Please.

      I also don’t want to hear any more about the stretch provision as being some kind of insurance against Lin failing. Losing $5 million in cap space for 2 years post Amare and Melo contracts doesn’t seem like a big deal now, but it could mean the difference between signing a second or third max player or not, signing a MLE player or not, triggering cap-related threshholds and paying luxury tax in those years or not. Even Balkman’s stupid contract was an issue this year.

    4. bobneptune

      Z-man:
      Looks like the Bulls are not going to match for Asik. Wait, Dolan owns the Bulls as well?

      Why do people keep saying “35 games” for Lin? He played 9 games of garbage time minutes before D’Antoni put him in vs. Rockets. So his Knicks career as something other than the 11th-12th man off the bench was 26 games. His record in those games: 16-10. His record after the first 7 games: 9-10. Including 7 games in the Woodson era where he shot poorly and less than 5.5 assists per game. He shot a consistent whopping .325 from 3 for all 26 games.

      Some pretty loltastic stuff considering this is a stat centric board.

      You are going to compare Lin with Fatty with a straight face? Seriously?

      Lifetime ws/48 felton 0.67 vs Lin 1.26

      2012 ws/48 Felton 0.42 vs Lin 1.40

      We could go to per and other stats, but that would be like clubbing a baby seal. This notion that Fatty is a capable starting NBA point guard is pretty funny, no matter what Larry Brown says. The numbers don’t lie.

      Fatty was an embarrassment to himself last season.

      As to Lin’s declining performance, an indeterminate portion of that was due to him playing on a knee that needed surgery and 12 of those games where “he” was 9-10 were under d’antoni when Melo was intentionally screwing up the spacing and throwing hissy fits to get d’antoni out.

      But sure, try to go past a first round blow out with fatty and a corpse and an 35 yr old rookie running the show, not a guy that was 16-10.

      Makes all the sense in the world.

      And even if you don’t want the guy because he sucks, don’t work a deal with Houston where you get something as an asset in return for letting houston sign him for a lesser price.

      Let your 23 and 24 yr old starting back court walk for nothing…. always a fine way to do business, but give fatty 4 guaranteed years and 2 geriatric cases 3 years. And…

    5. Brian Cronin

      Why do people keep saying “35 games” for Lin? He played 9 games of garbage time minutes before D’Antoni put him in vs. Rockets. So his Knicks career as something other than the 11th-12th man off the bench was 26 games. His record in those games: 16-10. His record after the first 7 games: 9-10. Including 7 games in the Woodson era where he shot poorly and less than 5.5 assists per game. He shot a consistent whopping .325 from 3 for all 26 games.

      He got absolutely abused by Rondo, Deron, and Chalmers

      If you’re criticizing the small sample size of 25 games, you can’t use miniscule sample size to prove your point.

      I don’t want to judge him by his best. Judge him by his overall performance. Not just the three games you cherry-pick to show him being bad (especially when you cite Deron Williams, who he outperformed in the other of the two games they played against each other!). I certainly would never judge him on the big games he had against the Lakers and the Mavericks. As someone else noted, his performance against playoff teams are nearly identical as his record against non-playoff teams. Overall, he had a very good performance in his 25 games.

      I also don’t want to hear any more about the stretch provision as being some kind of insurance against Lin failing. Losing $5 million in cap space for 2 years post Amare and Melo contracts doesn’t seem like a big deal now, but it could mean the difference between signing a second or third max player or not, signing a MLE player or not, triggering cap-related threshholds and paying luxury tax in those years or not. Even Balkman’s stupid contract was an issue this year.

      The stretch provision is only for the nightmare scenario that people were complaining about at first that the Knicks could get stuck with a $60 million luxury tax bill because of his contract even if he sucked. The stretch provision keeps that from being an issue, as that scenario never would happen.

      The stretch provision would not be needed, as Lin would play well enough to be either traded or for another Knick to be traded instead (if Lin was too good to deal).

      But really, if you are more concerned about the unlikely possibility that Player X can’t be signed in 2015-16 because of Lin’s unlikely-to-be-waived contract than the state of the “win now” Knicks in 2012-13, then sure, by all means, let us hurt the Knicks of 2012-13 (and 2013-14 and 2015-16) for the chance that maybe someone won’t get signed in 2016-17.

    6. Eyal

      The simple fact is, before Linsanity the Knicks had a loosing record with basically the same roster they’ll have in the beginning of next season, and worse Amare and Chandler are a year older. Are we going to believe that Felton and Kidd will change that? Or maybe Woodson’s genius?

      Lin brought excitement and his brilliance on the court made everyone around him believe in magic for several long, beautiful weeks. And yes, he was brilliant both in getting to the rim, and in finding easy shots for Novak and Chandler. It was such a pleasure to watch.

      I’m sorry to see him go to a different team. And I don’t think there’s a reason for optimism about the upcoming season. Wait until the first loosing streak, with all the finger pointing at Melo and JR and Amare and Woody, and watch everything goes up in flames. 45 wins seems like the absolute ceiling for this group.

      (First time long time, btw.)

    7. Frank

      Few things:

      1) so it begins — Sportvu and spatial analysis debunking myths — namely that a player doesn’t improve the efficiency of others around him (even if he is being inefficient himself in the process):

      From the increasingly impressive @kirkgoldsberry: 26% of missed NBA field goals turn into offensive rebounds; the Bulls got 41% of Derrick Rose’s misses.

      2) back to Fatty Felton – it’s not like Felton is a horrible player. He’s posted essentially league-average PERs for his career, with the main outlier being last year when he came in extra Fatty Felton. But as I posted before – after the ASB (and after McMillan was fired), he actually played quite well. Sounds like another (slightly less fatty) player on our team. And – with the caveat that I very much believe in Jeremy Lin – I sort of remember Felton also having a PER of about 19-20 and TS in mid-50s in the first 30 games or so of 2010 with MDA’s offense, before his shooting went really south before the ASB. can anyone confirm/refute?

      3) Re:

      bobneptune: And even if you don’t want the guy because he sucks, don’t work a deal with Houston where you get something as an asset in return for letting houston sign him for a lesser price.

      As Hollinger wrote (and I wrote about yesterday) – there was no way Lin would have accepted a S&T after that 1st (4y/28.8M) offer was on the table. The most he could have made on a S&T was 4y/24, and then he would willfully be forcing his new team to give up useful assets for him. S&T was a mirage. The Arenas provision REALLY makes it tough on the incumbent team because unlike normal S&T, the “signing team” (in this case, NYK) can only offer an MLE-type contract, whereas the team that wants him (HOU) can offer more. The player needs to agree to the S&T, and it makes no sense to do that if you are offered more than the MLE.

    8. Z-man

      bobneptune: Some pretty loltastic stuff considering this is a stat centric board.You are going to compare Lin with Fatty with a straight face? Seriously?Lifetime ws/48 felton 0.67 vs Lin 1.262012 ws/48 Felton 0.42 vs Lin 1.40We could go to per and other stats, but that would be like clubbing a baby seal. This notion that Fatty is a capable starting NBA point guard is pretty funny, no matter what Larry Brown says. The numbers don’t lie.Fatty was an embarrassment to himself last season.As to Lin’s declining performance, an indeterminate portion of that was due to him playing on a knee that needed surgery and 12 of those games where “he” was 9-10 were under d’antoni when Melo was intentionally screwing up the spacing and throwing hissy fits to get d’antoni out.But sure, try to go past a first round blow out with fatty and a corpse and an 35 yr old rookie running the show, not a guy that was 16-10.Makes all the sense in the world.And even if you don’t want the guy because he sucks, don’t work a deal with Houston where you get something as an asset in return for letting houston sign him for a lesser price.Let your 23 and 24 yr old starting back court walk for nothing…. …

      Fatty played a better 25 games for the Knicks than Lin did. Fatty is a proven NBA starter. Fatty is 28 years old. Fatty is not coming off serious knee surgery. Fatty has a left hand. Fatty is making $3.3 million a year. Fatty’s contract for 3 years is $4 million less than Lin’s is for one year.

      In fact, Camby, Kidd, Felton, Novak, Prigioni and Thomas COMBINED will make less than Lin will in year 3.
      If you want t blame everybody except Lin for his declining performance after people learned who is was, go ahead. PS Lin was gonna have to play with Melo and under Woodson, no?

    9. Brian Cronin

      As Hollinger wrote (and I wrote about yesterday) – there was no way Lin would have accepted a S&T after that 1st (4y/28.8M) offer was on the table. The most he could have made on a S&T was 4y/24, and then he would willfully be forcing his new team to give up useful assets for him. S&T was a mirage. The Arenas provision REALLY makes it tough on the incumbent team because unlike normal S&T, the “signing team” (in this case, NYK) can only offer an MLE-type contract, whereas the team that wants him (HOU) can offer more. The player needs to agree to the S&T, and it makes no sense to do that if you are offered more than the MLE.

      Agreed. Once the offer was on the table, they were screwed as far as trading him. Which is why they should have shopped him before he got the offer. That is, if they seriously did not consider him their point guard of the future for whatever reason (which I doubt is what actually happened), then it made no sense not to shop him early on.

      Since Grunwald is not one to do something like that, logic dictates that he was prepared to match any offer. Until they didn’t.

    10. Frank

      Eyal: The simple fact is, before Linsanity the Knicks had a loosing record with basically the same roster they’ll have in the beginning of next season, and worse Amare and Chandler are a year older. Are we going to believe that Felton and Kidd will change that? Or maybe Woodson’s genius?

      This is really an incorrect argument. We had Toney Douglas and Landry Fields playing the backcourt at the beginning of last season – let’s remember that Toney Douglas was the WORST player in the NBA last year, and when the PG is terrible, that magnifies every other weakness on the offense. Let’s also remember that (By month), Landry Fields shot 21%, 29%, 24%, and 12.5% from 3 point range last year, and Toney shot 28%, 24%, 9% (!), 0% (!!), and 25% from 3 point range.

      Even if Felton plays to his career averages (which is average), he will MORE THAN DOUBLE Toney’s PER from last year (7.06!).

      So comparing this year’s team to last year’s joke of a start is really not fair. And that’s not even including we have Jason Kidd and Marcus Camby, who are really quite good when they get out of their motorized wheelchairs.

    11. airys

      In business world an sport world, everything is about probability and risk vs. reward. Even z-man’s forecast fulfilled, not really reflect that team Dolan are geniuses, they may be just lucky.
      The problem is, in Dolan’s equation, he seems to never put “upsetting loyal fans” as a risk, or “satisfying loyal fans” as a reward.

      By the way, hard for me to see the reason u can’t wait to see Lin fail. Just to prove you are right? That young man inspire people all around the world and like bill Simmons said, shows the reason why American is the greatest country in this world.

    12. Brian Cronin

      This is really an incorrect argument. We had Toney Douglas and Landry Fields playing the backcourt at the beginning of last season – let’s remember that Toney Douglas was the WORST player in the NBA last year, and when the PG is terrible, that magnifies every other weakness on the offense. Let’s also remember that (By month), Landry Fields shot 21%, 29%, 24%, and 12.5% from 3 point range last year, and Toney shot 28%, 24%, 9% (!), 0% (!!), and 25% from 3 point range.

      Even if Felton plays to his career averages (which is average), he will MORE THAN DOUBLE Toney’s PER from last year (7.06!).

      So comparing this year’s team to last year’s joke of a start is really not fair. And that’s not even including we have Jason Kidd and Marcus Camby, who are really quite good when they get out of their motorized wheelchairs.

      Yeah, they’ll definitely improve next season from last season. They’ll be worse than what they could have easily been, but they’ll still be an improvement over last season. Which is nice.

    13. Z-man

      Brian, you are missing my point. I am saying that Lin would not help us win now any more than Felton, and might have actually hurt our chances to win now. I am also saying that signing him after it seems very reasonable to assume that he would not pan out was not without tremendous risk. I believe that there is more evidence that he would not have panned out than that he would.

      In other words, I believe that it was primarily a basketball and business decision to let him walk, and a smart decision on both counts.

    14. Frank

      Brian Cronin: Since Grunwald is not one to do something like that, logic dictates that he was prepared to match any offer. Until they didn’t.

      Yes, in retrospect the way they should have handled it probably would be to give Lin the max MLE offer at midnight July 1. That would have signaled to him that they really wanted him at that price (with no poison pill). If he went out and negotiated a poison pill offer on his own, they would have more of a PR leg to stand on.

      The #s really are astronomical for that 14-15 year for the luxury tax. And again in retrospect – it’s true that Amare/Melo’s contracts are huge albatrosses in this new CBA, but to be fair, they were signed under the last CBA. It is highly unlikely that such a contract would ever have been given out if Donnie Walsh knew that the luxury tax would be this punitive and handicapping. And those are sunk costs – you can say all you want that they matter just as much to the lux tax as Lin’s contract would have, except that you have control over whether you pay Lin’s or not – you no longer have control over the others.

      And also – I don’t mind that the Knicks aren’t saying much right now. There’s nothing they could say that wouldn’t cause an even greater backlash, other than maybe “Good luck in Houston, thank you for all you gave us and our fans” and leave it at that.

    15. Nick C.

      I hate that Lin is gone etc. , but is there someone who can put up the #s of Duhon, Felton in the first 25-35 games and compare them with Lin. With those two you have a career of meh to make you confident it was just a hot streak or D’Antoni’s system (before they got run into the ground). With Lin that represents pretty much his whole career.

    16. Brian Cronin

      Brian, you are missing my point. I am saying that Lin would not help us win now any more than Felton, and might have actually hurt our chances to win now. I am also saying that signing him after it seems very reasonable to assume that he would not pan out was not without tremendous risk. I believe that there is more evidence that he would not have panned out than that he would.

      In other words, I believe that it was primarily a basketball and business decision to let him walk, and a smart decision on both counts.

      Well, obviously, I think you’re way wrong on the basketball end of things and on the business end, it is only a smart decision if your sole goal is to save on luxury taxes. Otherwise, Lin is the only chance the Knicks had to add a good player, as the mini-MLE sure isn’t bringing anyone in, as the Knicks used it, in effect, twice this offseason and both brought them worse players than Lin.

    17. Frank

      Actually what they should have done after the 1st offer sheet was suggested (but not yet signed) – which was 3 years ~20M guaranteed + 1 year team option 9M – was offer him a 4 year full MLE at $24M but have the last year be a player option. Then the Total amount of guaranteed money in first 3 years would be very close (~18M vs. $20M) but he would have the player option in year 4. In fact, that’s DEFINITELY what they should have done. No poison pill, same amount of $.

    18. Brian Cronin

      Actually what they should have done after the 1st offer sheet was suggested (but not yet signed) – which was 3 years ~20M guaranteed + 1 year team option 9M – was offer him a 4 year full MLE at $24M but have the last year be a player option. Then the Total amount of guaranteed money in first 3 years would be very close (~18M vs. $20M) but he would have the player option in year 4. In fact, that’s DEFINITELY what they should have done. No poison pill, same amount of $.

      Yeah, that is a very smart offer.

    19. Frank

      Brian Cronin: Yeah, that is a very smart offer.

      I was just overcome by another wave of sadness. But I guess there’s really no way Grunwald didn’t think of that. They just didn’t want him. Combined with Zach Horst’s twitter thing where he saw Felton at Dolan’s July 4 party and was told on July 4th BY FELTON that he would be on the Knicks, it sure seems like they were planning on letting him go from the beginning.

    20. PrecociousNeophyte

      Given how small the sample is, you can twist and turn and slice up Lin’s numbers to fit any opinion you want to support. And his sample is further clouded by the fact we don’t know exactly when he tore his meniscus.

      Bottom line, however, Lin was a 23 year old ”rookie” that shower tremendous upside last season. On a capped out team with no legitimate means of improvement of the next few years letting him go, especially for nothing, seems unacceptable to me.

    21. Brian Cronin

      I was just overcome by another wave of sadness. But I guess there’s really no way Grunwald didn’t think of that. They just didn’t want him. Combined with Zach Horst’s twitter thing where he saw Felton at Dolan’s July 4 party and was told on July 4th BY FELTON that he would be on the Knicks, it sure seems like they were planning on letting him go from the beginning.

      I agree, it does look that way. Which I know I sure find more disheartening than Dolan just being a jerk. You?

    22. Z-man

      Brian Cronin: Well, obviously, I think you’re way wrong on the basketball end of things and on the business end, it is only a smart decision if your sole goal is to save on luxury taxes. Otherwise, Lin is the only chance the Knicks had to add a good player, as the mini-MLE sure isn’t bringing anyone in, as the Knicks used it, in effect, twice this offseason and both brought them worse players than Lin.

      Fine, there are lots of “experts” weighing in on both sides of these argumets, so neither of us should be so sure of ourselves. However, since we don’t really know who the real Lin is, you can’t definitively state that we brought in “worse” players than Lin. Lin may prove to be no better than a mediocre back-up, or a borderline starter on a lousy team, or a guy with chronic knee problems. There is a reasonable chance (in my view, at least 50-50) that both Jason Kidd and Felton turn out to be better than Lin during the next 2 years. I’ll be happy to admit that I was wrong about Lin if it turns out otherwise, and hopefully you will do the same if Lin regresses.

    23. Thomas B.

      Z-man:
      Looks like the Bulls are not going to match for Asik. Wait, Dolan owns the Bulls as well?

      Why do people keep saying “35 games” for Lin? He played 9 games of garbage time minutes before D’Antoni put him in vs. Rockets. So his Knicks career as something other than the 11th-12th man off the bench was 26 games. His record in those games: 16-10. His record after the first 7 games: 9-10. Including 7 games in the Woodson era where he shot poorly and less than 5.5 assists per game. He shot a consistent whopping .325 from 3 for all 26 games.

      He got absolutely abused by Rondo, Deron, and Chalmers. Then his knee gave out. Good news is, he has a very healthy and fresh left hand, because it was hardly used by season’s end.

      But of course, just ignore all that. Lin is clearly better than Felton based on those first 10 games. He is sure thing, a guaranteed future all star, maybe a hall of famer.He’s only a left hand, a consistent perimeter shot and a healthy knee away from being the next Steve Nash. Who, by the way, never made more than $13,125,000 salary in a season.

      I can’t wait to see Westbroook, Nash, Parker and Lawson put an end to Linsanity permanently, and Houston struggle to win 30 games with Lin and Asik as their core players who will cost them $30 million in 2014-15. And when that happens, Dolan and Grunwald will look like geniuses for not matching that ridiculous contract but nobody will give them any credit.

      Mark my words, we will miss Landry Fields more than Jeremy Lin.

      +1

    24. Brian Cronin

      Fine, there are lots of “experts” weighing in on both sides of these argumets, so neither of us should be so sure of ourselves. However, since we don’t really know who the real Lin is, you can’t definitively state that we brought in “worse” players than Lin. Lin may prove to be no better than a mediocre back-up, or a borderline starter on a lousy team, or a guy with chronic knee problems. There is a reasonable chance (in my view, at least 50-50) that both Jason Kidd and Felton turn out to be better than Lin during the next 2 years. I’ll be happy to admit that I was wrong about Lin if it turns out otherwise, and hopefully you will do the same if Lin regresses.

      I think there are separate issues.

      1. Should the Knicks have matched?

      2. Will Lin be better than Felton and Kidd next year (and 2013-14 and 2014-15).

      I think the answer to both is yes, but the answer to 2. can turn out to be “no” and the answer to 1 should still be yes, as whatever evidence we have available to us now shows us that he’ll likely be better than the two and even if he is “just as good” as them, then that’s a very valuable player to have on a team with no other avenues to add players.

      As to how Lin performs next year, while I am sure he will do very well in Houston, I’m not going to crow about it and I certainly don’t expect nor do I desire anyone to say that they were wrong. What’s the point? When the season begins, I just want to concentrate on the Knicks. Hopefully everyone else will do the same and we won’t have constant game-to-game updates on how the Knuggets are doing or how Fields is doing in Toronto or how Lin is doing in Houston.

    25. Z-man

      airys: By the way, hard for me to see the reason u can’t wait to see Lin fail. Just to prove you are right? That young man inspire people all around the world and like bill Simmons said, shows the reason why American is the greatest country in this world.

      Simple: I am a Knicks fan first and foremost and I hope that every move we make works out best for us. I also like to be right. I feel that the Lin of the last 16 games is closer to the real Lin than the Lin of the first 10 games, and always have. When the Knicks drafted Balkman ahead of Rondo, I hoped that Balkman would be great and that Rondo would suck. When the Knicks drafted Jordan Hill ahead of Lawson, Blair, etc., I hoped that Hill would be great and that the others would suck. I love when the Knicks make smart decisions (drafting Fields in the second round, for example) and hate when they make dumb one. Nothing personal against Lin, just part of the fun of being a fan and having opinions. My opinion is that Lin was mostly a flash in the pan and will be exposed for what he is this year.

      However, if Lin turns out to be Rajon Rondo, I will be OK, acknowledge that I was wrong, and keep on rooting for the Knicks to win as much as possible.

    26. Thomas B.

      Hey, since Louis Williams is a better guard than Lin, is Philly’s management even dumber than NY’s?

    27. jon abbey

      this is mostly pretty funny:

      http://i48.tinypic.com/aaehl5.jpg

      I do love that the sideshow factor, right or wrong, is gone. pretty interesting that both Tebow and Lin (not equating the two, but there are similarities) were dumped by their teams so cheaply and quickly.

    28. ephus

      As soon as the Knicks won the Early Bird arbitration, I suggested that the Knicks make a full offer (5.3/5.7/6.1/6.5) with the last year as a player option, but only if he agreed not to shop the deal elsewhere.

      The full four year MLE offer could not have been used in a S&T, because S&T contracts are limited to 4.5% raises, not the 7.5% raises that the Knicks could offer using Early Bird rights. The biggest S&T deal the Knicks could offer was (5.3/5.5/5.7/6.0), or only $16.5 million over the first three years.

      So, there was not a good choice that led to a clean S&T. Even if Lin would agree to a S&T to guarantee an extra $2.8 million in aggragate and get his freedom a year earlier than under the Rockets’ first offer, the Rockets were not going to offer much, if anything, in a S&T.

    29. Brian Cronin

      Hey, since Louis Williams is a better guard than Lin, is Philly’s management even dumber than NY’s?

      Yeah, I don’t know what Philly was thinking this offseason. I have to imagine that they have some more moves planned, because right now it is just….odd.

    30. Thomas B.

      Brian Cronin: Yeah, I don’t know what Philly was thinking this offseason. I have to imagine that they have some more moves planned, because right now it is just….odd.

      Yeah I’m thinking had we found a way to get Williams–rather than Felton and Kidd–people wouldn’t be so crazy about losing Lin. They would still be somewhat crazy, but least you could take some real solace in the idea that Williams can man your point far better than Felton can. And Williams is probably a better fit as he can shoot but really doesn’t need to shoot a lot.

      Some of the moves this summer really have confused me. I can’t be too hard on the Knicks since it seems plenty of Front Offices are confusing me this summer.

    31. ephus

      Here is my crazy, based-on-no-sources speculation: Jeremy Lin will be in Brooklyn by the trade deadline, assuming that Dwight Howard gets moved and signs an extension. At that point, once January 15 rolls around, the Nets could offer Brook Lopez plus their 2013 First Round pick to the Rockets for Lin and Asik. The Nets will need Asik’s defense and rebounding more than Lopez’s offense. Lin will make a perfect third guard in a Lou Williams role. The Nets use Lin to build their NY fan base. And because the Nets will take Lin and Asik at $8 million/year, the luxury tax hit will be managable.

    32. johnlocke

      Ha! Um, there is no way the Rockets are doing that deal.

      ephus:
      Here is my crazy, based-on-no-sources speculation:Jeremy Lin will be in Brooklyn by the trade deadline, assuming that Dwight Howard gets moved and signs an extension.At that point, once January 15 rolls around, the Nets could offer Brook Lopez plus their 2013 First Round pick to the Rockets for Lin and Asik.The Nets will need Asik’s defense and rebounding more than Lopez’s offense.Lin will make a perfect third guard in a Lou Williams role.The Nets use Lin to build their NY fan base.And because the Nets will take Lin and Asik at $8 million/year, the luxury tax hit will be managable.

    33. Brian Cronin

      Yeah I’m thinking had we found a way to get Williams–rather than Felton and Kidd–people wouldn’t be so crazy about losing Lin. They would still be somewhat crazy, but least you could take some real solace in the idea that Williams can man your point far better than Felton can. And Williams is probably a better fit as he can shoot but really doesn’t need to shoot a lot.

      I do loves me some Louis Williams.

    34. ABG

      Z-man:

      I can’t wait to see Westbroook, Nash, Parker and Lawson put an end to Linsanity permanently, and Houston struggle to win 30 games with Lin and Asik as their core players who will cost them $30 million in 2014-15. And when that happens, Dolan and Grunwald will look like geniuses for not matching that ridiculous contract but nobody will give them any credit.

      Mark my words, we will miss Landry Fields more than Jeremy Lin.

      And exactly what good does it do US if Lin is a bust? A rich asshole we all hate is a 25 million dollar richer asshole that we all hate who now perceives himself as even smarter? We don’t get any other players, have any more cap flexibility or gain any more enjoyment out of rooting for a great kid because of it.

      All not matching does is make James Dolan richer and feed his disgusting ego if Lin is a bust. If he’s any good at all, its another disaster. There’s simply no upside in not matching for us as fans.

    35. johnlocke

      This.
      There is no argument to be made that losing Lin makes us better. It also doesn’t give us any options we wouldn’t have otherwise (at least not until 2014 and 2015 –assuming we had used stretch provision), so from a fan perspective this is all downside. This is the team. We’re not getting Chris Paul or any other top flight PG. If Ray Felton is fat and Kidd too old, we will once again be screwed at that key position.

      ABG: And exactly what good does it do US if Lin is a bust?A rich asshole we all hate is a 25 million dollar richer asshole that we all hate who now perceives himself as even smarter?We don’t get any other players, have any more cap flexibility or gain any more enjoyment out of rooting for a great kid because of it.

      All not matching does is make James Dolan richer and feed his disgusting ego if Lin is a bust.If he’s any good at all, its another disaster.There’s simply no upside in not matching for us as fans.

    36. ephus

      johnlocke: johnlocke says:

      July 19, 2012 at 10:04 am

      Ha! Um, there is no way the Rockets are doing that deal.

      ephus:
      Here is my crazy, based-on-no-sources speculation:Jeremy Lin will be in Brooklyn by the trade deadline, assuming that Dwight Howard gets moved and signs an extension.At that point, once January 15 rolls around, the Nets could offer Brook Lopez plus their 2013 First Round pick to the Rockets for Lin and Asik.The Nets will need Asik’s defense and rebounding more than Lopez’s offense.Lin will make a perfect third guard in a Lou Williams role.The Nets use Lin to build their NY fan base.And because the Nets will take Lin and Asik at $8 million/year, the luxury tax hit will be managable.

      Nets could also add CJ Watson. If Lin is a star, this is not going to happen. But if he is a Mike Conley-level starting PG, the Rockets get a good offensive 5 and a stopgap PG, while the Nets build a roster that fills defensive gaps in the front court and adds offense off the bench.

    37. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Z-man:
      Why do people keep saying “35 games” for Lin? He played 9 games of garbage time minutes before D’Antoni put him in vs. Rockets. So his Knicks career as something other than the 11th-12th man off the bench was 26 games. His record in those games: 16-10. His record after the first 7 games: 9-10. Including 7 games in the Woodson era where he shot poorly and less than 5.5 assists per game. He shot a consistent whopping .325 from 3 for all 26 games.

      This is a terribly disingenuous use of statistics. You know what his record after the first six games was? 6-0. And his record after? 10-10. How about his record after the first three games? 3-0. And his record after? 13-10. Or what about his record after his first start? 1-0. And after? 15-10. Looks pretty good, right?

      Not to mention that you attribute the team’s record to ONE PLAYER. How does that make sense at all?

      This is distortion to suit your hypothesis. Essentially meaningless.

    38. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ephus: Nets could also add CJ Watson.If Lin is a star, this is not going to happen.But if he is a Mike Conley-level starting PG, the Rockets get a good offensive 5 and a stopgap PG, while the Nets build a roster that fills defensive gaps in the front court and adds offense off the bench.

      There’s no way that Houston trades Lin and Asik, both efficient young players, for the max-contract blight that is Brook Lopez.

      Lopez is, on offense at least, one of the worst centers in the league.

    39. Frank

      I have to be honest – this is feeling way less like a emotional Dolan-as-baby decision and more like a fully-thought-out risk:benefit decision to me the more I think about it. The actual answer to this is that they don’t think he’s good enough to justify that contract. As ephus points out above, S&T was really never an option. And then they other options (trade prior to balloon payment and stretch provision) each have their own very significant weaknesses. Maybe they were maybe willing to match a lesser offer, but once that super-poison-pill came out, they weren’t.

      Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong – that actually makes me feel better, not worse. At least in this scenario, it’s not just stupidity and immaturity that led to this outcome.

      If you look at the last 3 PGs (other than TD) that played in MDA’s system, they ALL overperformed for a limited amount of time, then got worse. Chris Duhon’s 2008-2009 season was really quite amazing for him – per 36 of 11 points, 7 assists, TS of 57 which are all WELL above his career averages. For the first ~30 games of Felton’s MDA career, he basically averaged 18p/9assists/4reb on a TS in mid 50s before crapping the bed in Jan/Feb before the trade (actually still averaged 15p/9a although his TS was only ~50 those 2 months). And Lin clearly overperformed in his first 10-15 games or so before coming back to earth a little bit after the ASB.

      I wish there was a way to calculate PER on the go, but I remember that at the height of Linsanity (say 10-12 games), he had a PER of 25, then ended up with a PER of 20 — which implies that he probably had a PER of 15 during the other half of the sample.

      I don’t know – I sort of over-rationalize stuff in general, and maybe I’m doing it here again. But I’m sort of coming around to this decision as a reasonable one, and I’m sure it was very difficult for Grunwald and co. also.

    40. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank:

      From the increasingly impressive @kirkgoldsberry: 26% of missed NBA field goals turn into offensive rebounds; the Bulls got 41% of Derrick Rose’s misses.

      And I’m sure Steve Kerr’s misses in ’96 were also rebounded at a greater rate than most other players. You know why? He had the greatest rebounder of all-time collecting his misses. It does not mean that Kerr is responsible for the higher rate.

      Correlation does not imply causality. And while there may be a difference between the way that a 3-point miss comes off the rim and the way a floater does, there is absolutely no way that the way Rose drives (by running and jumping and throwing the ball toward the rim) can account for a 60% improvement in OREB conversion.

      That’s a nice little nugget of trivia, but essentially meaningless.

    41. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank:

      I wish there was a way to calculate PER on the go, but I remember that at the height of Linsanity (say 10-12 games), he had a PER of 25, then ended up with a PER of 20 — which implies that he probably had a PER of 15 during the other half of the sample.

      Why use PER at all?

      A player can raise his PER by shooting 2PA at a rate of 33%+, or 3PA at 25%+. That means that a player could shoot those numbers, take all of the shots in his games, score 80 points, have the highest PER in the league, and lose 82 games in a row.

      There’s no merit that statistic, at all. It has no correlation with wins and tells us nearly nothing.

    42. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: There’s no way that Houston trades Lin and Asik, both efficient young players, for the max-contract blight that is Brook Lopez.

      Lopez is, on offense at least, one of the worst centers in the league.

      Maybe the sky is falling but I agree again with THCJ. This tweet from Chris Mannix at SI made me laugh:

      “On DH12, remember: Any offer has to be better than Lopez, Brooks, at least three firsts and cap relief. Nothing close right now.”

      Lopez on a max contract is a freaking liability, not an asset. You have to BEG people to take that. At a Javale-type contract he would probably be an ok asset ($11M/year). He’s a 1 trick pony that is better than Eddy Curry was at his “height”, but with the same weaknesses – doesn’t pass, doesn’t rebound, doesn’t defend. Well, he’s not a turnover machine, I guess.

    43. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Correlation does not imply causality. And while there may be a difference between the way that a 3-point miss comes off the rim and the way a floater does, there is absolutely no way that the way Rose drives (by running and jumping and throwing the ball toward the rim) can account for a 60% improvement in OREB conversion.

      Fair enough but if Goldsberry comes out and expands on this by telling us that the ORR for John Lucas III or CJ Watson is much less than for Rose, then I would say you have to believe it.

      Meanwhile have you ever watched Chicago play? Rose beats his man and the entire other team’s paint defense collapses on him. While they do that, the Bulls’ PF/C crash the offensive boards. How does that not make at least theoretical sense?

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Why use PER at all?

      It was just a stat that I had at hand and that I remembered, since his PER was something like 5th in the league ahead of Chris Paul at the time. I agree that PER is not the end-all and be-all. Would be interesting to split the two halves of Linsanity by WS or WP also.

    44. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is a terribly disingenuous use of statistics. You know what his record after the first six games was? 6-0. And his record after? 10-10. How about his record after the first three games? 3-0. And his record after? 13-10. Or what about his record after his first start? 1-0. And after? 15-10. Looks pretty good, right? Not to mention that you attribute the team’s record to ONE PLAYER. How does that make sense at all?This is distortion to suit your hypothesis. Essentially meaningless.

      THCJ, I only brig it up because of two things: first, Lin’s entire career is virtually meaningless in terms of figuring out who is he going to be. I only parsed things this way so that those who are convinced that Lin is destined to be a “very good” NBA player are basing it on a woefully small sample, and that if trends mean anything even within a small sample, the trends were all downward. Just like they were with your boy Landry Fields after the 50 game mark of his rookie year. Either way, my larger point is, matching Lin was an enormous financial and best-team-on-the-floor gamble.

    45. Gideon Zaga

      “@ESPNChrisPalmer: 10 Best NBA Rosters: 1. Thunder 2. Lakers 3. Heat 4. Knicks 5. Celtics 6. Nets 7. Clips 8. Spurs 9. Bulls 10. Nuggets”

      So guess a first round exit is not possible no not acceptable!

    46. Z-man

      Frank: I have to be honest – this is feeling way less like a emotional Dolan-as-baby decision and more like a fully-thought-out risk:benefit decision to me the more I think about it. The actual answer to this is that they don’t think he’s good enough to justify that contract. As ephus points out above, S&T was really never an option. And then they other options (trade prior to balloon payment and stretch provision) each have their own very significant weaknesses. Maybe they were maybe willing to match a lesser offer, but once that super-poison-pill came out, they weren’t.
      Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong – that actually makes me feel better, not worse. At least in this scenario, it’s not just stupidity and immaturity that led to this outcome.
      If you look at the last 3 PGs (other than TD) that played in MDA’s system, they ALL overperformed for a limited amount of time, then got worse. Chris Duhon’s 2008-2009 season was really quite amazing for him – per 36 of 11 points, 7 assists, TS of 57 which are all WELL above his career averages. For the first ~30 games of Felton’s MDA career, he basically averaged 18p/9assists/4reb on a TS in mid 50s before crapping the bed in Jan/Feb before the trade (actually still averaged 15p/9a although his TS was only ~50 those 2 months). And Lin clearly overperformed in his first 10-15 games or so before coming back to earth a little bit after the ASB.

      This pretty much sums up my thinking.

    47. thenamestsam

      Gideon Zaga:
      “@ESPNChrisPalmer: 10 Best NBA Rosters: 1. Thunder 2. Lakers 3. Heat 4. Knicks 5. Celtics 6. Nets 7. Clips 8. Spurs 9. Bulls 10. Nuggets”

      So guess a first round exit is not possible no not acceptable!

      I think I’d rather have just Lebron than the entire Knicks roster, so there must be a pretty big gap between #3 and #4.

    48. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank:
      Meanwhile have you ever watched Chicago play? Rose beats his man and the entire other team’s paint defense collapses on him. While they do that, the Bulls’ PF/C crash the offensive boards. How does that not make at least theoretical sense?

      Because it implies that other teams don’t do the same for any NBA player who cares to drive into the paint. Unless an opposing player is like, really bad, all NBA players have to respect other NBA players with the ball. And I think it’s your cognitive bias toward Rose’s athleticism that makes you believe that his defenders do something terribly wild against him that they don’t do to far inferior (yet similarly athletic) players like Wall or Kemba Walker.

      It’s the NBA, man. No one enters the paint without serious defensive collapsing. And since the defense collapses on him (if he gets closer to the baseline), wouldn’t that mean that there would be excellent DREB coverage by the opposing team?

      It’s about individual OREB talent, in my mind. Some players are good at it, some players are not. Who is shooting the ball likely matters very little, unless we want to deduct that it does based on our preconceptions of player ability.

      Rose is great, but you show me a PG who doesn’t get swarmed when he enters the paint.

    49. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Gideon Zaga:
      “@ESPNChrisPalmer: 10 Best NBA Rosters: 1. Thunder 2. Lakers 3. Heat 4. Knicks 5. Celtics 6. Nets 7. Clips 8. Spurs 9. Bulls 10. Nuggets”

      So guess a first round exit is not possible no not acceptable!

      That’s such a terrible list.

    50. Brian Cronin

      Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong – that actually makes me feel better, not worse. At least in this scenario, it’s not just stupidity and immaturity that led to this outcome.

      I feel worse, because I can understand Dolan being dumb (it’s what he does). I can’t understand Grunwald being dumb.

      That said, I get replacing him with Felton if their position was just that they are serious about pinching their pennies. If that’s the case then it makes sense to go for a worse, cheaper player. I don’t believe they are serious about pinching their pennies, but if that’s the word from up high, then Grunwald did a fine job with the limits he was given.

      The team got worse, but sometimes you have to do that when you’re given certain limits to work with (like when the Suns dumped Kurt Thomas for nothing – even throwing in a pick that became Serge Ibaka to facilitate Thomas’ departure).

      We shall see if the Knicks are, indeed, pinching pennies. If so, then fair enough. If not and they just didn’t want to spend on this particular player, then that’s dumb.

    51. Frank

      Gideon Zaga:
      “@ESPNChrisPalmer: 10 Best NBA Rosters: 1. Thunder 2. Lakers 3. Heat 4. Knicks 5. Celtics 6. Nets 7. Clips 8. Spurs 9. Bulls 10. Nuggets”

      So guess a first round exit is not possible no not acceptable!

      You have to love how the top 2 seeds overall last year (SA/CHI) somehow fall to #s 8 and 9. My rankings would be:

      1) Heat
      2) OKC
      3) Lakers
      4) Spurs
      5) Clips
      6) Knicks
      7) Celtics
      8) Bulls without Rose
      9) Nuggets
      10) Nets and Memphis tied

    52. Thomas B.

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: There’s no way that Houston trades Lin and Asik, both efficient young players, for the max-contract blight that is Brook Lopez.

      Lopez is, on offense at least, one of the worst centers in the league.

      Awful rebounder too.

    53. Z-man

      Brian Cronin: I feel worse, because I can understand Dolan being dumb (it’s what he does). I can’t understand Grunwald being dumb.That said, I get replacing him with Felton if their position was just that they are serious about pinching their pennies. If that’s the case then it makes sense to go for a worse, cheaper player. I don’t believe they are serious about pinching their pennies, but if that’s the word from up high, then Grunwald did a fine job with the limits he was given. The team got worse, but sometimes you have to do that when you’re given certain limits to work with (like when the Suns dumped Kurt Thomas for nothing – even throwing in a pick that became Serge Ibaka to facilitate Thomas’ departure).We shall see if the Knicks are, indeed, pinching pennies. If so, then fair enough. If not and they just didn’t want to spend on this particular player, then that’s dumb.

      Again, there is just as much (maybe more) evidence that Felton is better than Lin than that Lin is better than Felton. It was a total crap shoot at best. As I said, Fields is probably as good of a bet to exceed Lin’s career as the other way around, yet there is very little hand-wringing over him being let go. Jowles, I am still waiting for you to weigh in on the Fields non-matching…

    54. Gideon Zaga

      I dunno but maybe the Celtics and Clips could swap. I mean look at their rosters. Cp3=>Rondo, Bradley/Terry >Crawford, Pierce>Butler, Griffin>Bass, KG>Jordan. Plus the celtics also have Melo and Sullinger. Now that’s kind of a good team.

      Frank: You have to love how the top 2 seeds overall last year (SA/CHI) somehow fall to #s 8 and 9.My rankings would be:

      1) Heat
      2) OKC
      3) Lakers
      4) Spurs
      5) Clips
      6) Knicks
      7) Celtics
      8) Bulls without Rose
      9) Nuggets
      10) Nets and Memphis tied

    55. Frank

      Brian Cronin: That said, I get replacing him with Felton if their position was just that they are serious about pinching their pennies. If that’s the case then it makes sense to go for a worse, cheaper player.

      Well – let’s say with all the video, analytics etc. (which they have since MSG is a Sportvu venue) the FO thinks that his ceiling is an average PG that will have a career PER of 15 (again, using this just because it’s convenient, not because PER is the greatest thing or only thing). Felton has pretty much shown throughout his career that he’s an average player with a career PER of just about 15. Would you rather pay Felton 3 years for ~25MM total outlay if you include luxury tax or Lin 3 years for 75-80MM total outlay?

      Again, I’m not saying I agree with it – I’m just saying that I understand the thinking. It’s easy for us to say of course, spend the money and nebulous “marketing” $ will make up the difference, or that some other team will give us a break by taking expirings off our balance sheet pre-14-15 (by the way, we would have ZERO leverage in that negotiation).

      If one wanted to give the FO and Dolan the greatest benefit of the doubt, this is a PLAUSIBLE (not probable, but plausible) storyline-
      – they don’t think he’s that good
      – they appreciate all the goodwill he’s brought the team etc.
      – there is NOTHING they can say that will bring anything but bad PR if they let him go
      – nothing will make them look worse than if they tell the truth – that they don’t believe in his future – if they do, they’ll be called racists, nonbelievers, which they are being called already anyway
      – easiest thing to do is to say nothing – Lin comes off looking like the martyr (= thanks for Linsanity J-Lin! Cheers, MSG), and Dolan just gets more of the same stuff he’s been getting for years.

    56. Gideon Zaga

      Again if the Lakers get Dwight like they should,

      1.Lakers
      2.Heat
      3.OKC
      4.Celtics
      5.Knicks
      6.Spurs
      7.Clippers
      8.Bulls
      9.Dallas
      10.Memphis vs Hornets

    57. Eyal

      Brian Cronin: Yeah, they’ll definitely improve next season from last season. They’ll be worse than what they could have easily been, but they’ll still be an improvement over last season. Which is nice.

      I don’t know, Brian. We had quite a few things go really, really well last year. Linsanity, of course, and Chandler playing extended minutes and staying healthy, and the emotional surge when Woodson took over. All that achieved was mediocracy. Now what? We’re one or two points above that, because of Felton and Kidd and Camby?? With the expectations in NY being so high, this is a recipe for disaster.

      I’m not saying with Lin everything would have been great. But it could have. And everything else going on here since that awful decision is basically that dreaded “denial” phase.

    58. Brian Cronin

      Again, there is just as much (maybe more) evidence that Felton is better than Lin than that Lin is better than Felton. It was a total crap shoot at best. As I said, Fields is probably as good of a bet to exceed Lin’s career as the other way around, yet there is very little hand-wringing over him being let go. Jowles, I am still waiting for you to weigh in on the Fields non-matching…

      I could see Fields having a better career than Lin, but Lin fit this roster a heck of a lot better than Fields did. I did not have particularly high hopes for Fields on this team, especially with Woody as coach. Lin, meanwhile, seemingly had Woody’s faith (if you believe Woody, that is).

    59. JC Knickfan

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And I’m sure Steve Kerr’s misses in ’96 were also rebounded at a greater rate than most other players. You know why? He had the greatest rebounder of all-time collecting his misses. It does not mean that Kerr is responsible for the higher rate.

      Correlation does not imply causality. And while there may be a difference between the way that a 3-point miss comes off the rim and the way a floater does, there is absolutely no way that the way Rose drives (by running and jumping and throwing the ball toward the rim) can account for a 60% improvement in OREB conversion.

      That’s a nice little nugget of trivia, but essentially meaningless.

      There definitely truth in statistic, but I agree data should be refined better.

      In all Scenario Rose misses his shot.

      Scenario 1
      Derrick Rose blows by Felton and TC collapse on him tries to block his shot. Noah then roll under basket put him best position to rebound the ball. Noah gets the rebound.

      Scenario 2
      Derrick Rose blow by Felton and TC stay on Noah to box him out.
      Rose get his own rebound because Felton does not box him out.

      Scenario 3
      Derrick Rose blows by Felton and TC stay on Noah. Felton runs back and box Rose out. Knicks get rebound.

      This stat is telling when Rose get to rim it does cause defense to be in bad rebounding position in several scenarios. I would bet that guards that are able to penetrate increase offensive rebound rate because defense rotation puts defense in worse position to rebound.

    60. ephus

      Charley Rosen — whom I respect as an independent thinker — writes that the Knicks are better off without Lin.

      http://hoopshype.com/columns/rosen/on-lin-leaving-new-york

      I am still grieving the loss of Lin, because I believe that he could have brought the Knicks to a championship if he performed at Linsanity levels.

      I absolutely believe that if the Knicks wanted to keep Lin, they made a huge mistake in revealing that they would match the Rockets’ first offer sheet, because it created the impetus for the Rockets to increase the offer to a level that the Knicks would not match.

      If the Knicks were trying to bait the Rockets to increase their offer because they did not want to keep Lin once they knew they could have Felton and Kidd, they have done an awesome job of message control. The only evidence I have seen to support this idea is a tweet (reportedly from July 4) that Felton knew back then he was coming back to the Knicks. Don’t know if that is genuine.

      When given a choice between Dolan did something short-tempered and foolish and Dolan did something incredibly subtle, I vote for short-tempered and foolish.

    61. Gideon Zaga

      Same thing was said after the Melo trade but truth is we’ll always find a way to add good players. Just watch.

      Brian Cronin: Well, obviously, I think you’re way wrong on the basketball end of things and on the business end, it is only a smart decision if your sole goal is to save on luxury taxes. Otherwise, Lin is the only chance the Knicks had to add a good player, as the mini-MLE sure isn’t bringing anyone in, as the Knicks used it, in effect, twice this offseason and both brought them worse players than Lin.

    62. Brian Cronin

      Same thing was said after the Melo trade but truth is we’ll always find a way to add good players. Just watch.

      Huh?

      The thing that was said after the Melo trade was that Melo was going to bring Chris Paul here to form a new Big Three. The Knicks obviously had room to add players after getting Melo. That was the whole point of taking on Billups’ expiring contract.

    63. Z-man

      Actually, once Felton is considered, we have more ??? at SG than at PG. Who has Fields’ role been replaced with? James White? Shump may be months, even a year away. JR is more of a career 6th man. SG is a glaring need.

      And did Lin really fit this roster better than Felton? He did not seem to mesh well with either Amare or Melo. He was going to possibly play second fiddle to Kidd, and if we matched post-Felton, to Felton as well. I think if you gave Woodson truth serum, he wasn’t keen on the idea of Lin being his go-to guy, even with Kidd in the fold.

    64. PC

      The argument of smart move/bad move seems to center around his massive third year. But, I am still in utter shock about how the Knicks handled the negotiations. Two huge mistakes. First, they had a chance to offer a contract the minutes free agency opened in order to avoid all of this. Letting Lin test the market for his price was silly, a backloaded contract was reasonably foreseeable.

      Second, once Knicks got word of the first offer (which was not an offer sheet and was merely rumors), the Knicks should not have openly told the Rockets that they would match. If you’re the Rockets, and the Knicks say in public they will match, don’t you just up the offer if you want Lin? So, that’s what they did. Huge mistake by the Knicks. They deserve what they got.

      And, to top it all off, the campaign the Knicks have gone on (which I am convinced is trumpeted by Steven A. Smith likes) to bash Lin and turn fans against him to smoothen the transition, was disgraceful. Anyone with a brain knows that Lin did nothing wrong in this situation.

    65. PrecociousNeophyte

      Is there another player that has had a comparable start to Lin and then flamed out?

      Based on how his career started, isn’t there more evidence that he will be really good than bad or even merely average?

      To my knowledge, basketball is not like baseball with the ‘flash in the pan’ type phenomenon when we are dealing with a player of Lin’s age/experience.

    66. johnlocke

      I don’t think we’re better than the Celtics as currently constructed. The x-factor has now shifted from Lin to Amare to see what he’s capable of producing this year, but as the current roster stands and given last year’s performances, the Celtics have a better roster. They have a better starting PG, a better starting SG (Terry most likely), about even on the 3 (btw Pierce and Melo), a better 4 (Garnett vs. Stoudemire) and we have a better 5 (Chandler versus whoever they trot out at the 4/5)

      Frank: You have to love how the top 2 seeds overall last year (SA/CHI) somehow fall to #s 8 and 9.My rankings would be:

      1) Heat
      2) OKC
      3) Lakers
      4) Spurs
      5) Clips
      6) Knicks
      7) Celtics
      8) Bulls without Rose
      9) Nuggets
      10) Nets and Memphis tied

    67. PC

      Don’t the Celtics play Bass at the 4? Who is better than Amare. And Garnett and Chandler are a wash.

    68. Frank

      Avery Bradley is out for a while, not even clear when he’s coming back. He’s needed multiple surgeries on his right shoulder. He’s probably coming back when Shump comes back.

      The major thing with the Celts is that they are 200% reliant on the fact that Garnett can stay healthy and play lots of minutes. They have nothing else in the middle. We have very old guys, but Kidd and Camby probably won’t be expected to play more than 15-20 min/night, and if they can’t do that, we have other guys who can step up into a backup role (Kurt Thomas, Prigioni, etc.). Dunno, it’s close I guess.

    69. Frank

      That Rosen article that ephus linked to above is a very good read. Lin was probably never going to reach his ceiling here, and the CBA basically made it very hard in the minds of the FO to justify spending that much $ on the production they projected for him.

      It’s fine i guess. Still kills me though.

    70. Brian Cronin

      Actually, once Felton is considered, we have more ??? at SG than at PG. Who has Fields’ role been replaced with? James White? Shump may be months, even a year away. JR is more of a career 6th man. SG is a glaring need.

      And did Lin really fit this roster better than Felton? He did not seem to mesh well with either Amare or Melo. He was going to possibly play second fiddle to Kidd, and if we matched post-Felton, to Felton as well. I think if you gave Woodson truth serum, he wasn’t keen on the idea of Lin being his go-to guy, even with Kidd in the fold.

      All we can go on is what Woodson said with Lin and how he treated Lin while he coached Lin. I mean, don’t get me wrong, I was always waiting for Woody to turn on Lin but he didn’t. And when you add in what Woody said, he said Lin was his starter. And when we were all expecting Davis to get the nod over Lin, Woody never went there. Yes, a problem the Knicks had was that Lin, Melo and STAT all play their best when they have the ball, but so does Felton. He’s just worse at it than Lin.

      The role that Fields was relegated to under Woody is something you can replace with a vet minimum player until Shump returns. Basically, just someone who can hit a three when the ball is kicked out to him. Also, a major difference between Lin and Fields is that Fields had to improve on this season to be worth his contract. Lin just has to be as good as he already was.

    71. formido

      He sure did. He was the glue that bound. Under Woodson (read: Melo now contributing fully) the Knicks went 7-1, including three wins over playoff teams, with Lin in. There was of course the one against Philly where he went 10/10 from the line down the stretch.

      No analyst anywhere of any repute thinks Felton is as good as Lin.

      Z-man: And did Lin really fit this roster better than Felton? He did not seem to mesh well with either Amare or Melo

    72. johnlocke

      Garnett guards Amare. Whoever they have at PF/C guards Chandler.

      PC:
      Don’t the Celtics play Bass at the 4?Who is better than Amare.And Garnett and Chandler are a wash.

    73. Brian Cronin

      And oh yeah, Lin is certainly helped by this move, as far as his own personal career goes. He was one of three guys who needed the ball in New York and he, being the third on the list, would have to adjust the most to the other two. Now in Houston he will be “the man.” He will put up great numbers and likely make the All-Star team. Being a Knick for him meant subjugating his game for the good of helping the team contend for a title. Good if you are just into team success. Bad if you’re into your own personal glory. He’ll definitely do better in Houston. Same thing with Fields in Toronto.

    74. Brian Cronin

      Also, talk about a perfect opportunity for Royce White! No one in front of him, Lin as his point guard, Asik as his center? A lot of opportunities to score will arise for White.

    75. formido

      From what I’ve read from “sources”, Woodson was a committed Lin supporter. I have no idea where this “Lin isn’t a Woodson guy” meme got started, but Woodson was 7-1 with Lin, so it doesn’t quite make sense he wouldn’t want him.

      At the summer league game where Knicks brass was in attendance the day of the fateful decision, multiple people read Woodson’s lips talking to Amare with a disappointed seeming head shake, “As of now, he’s not coming back.” Amare: “Yeah, I kinda figured.”

      Brian Cronin: All we can go on is what Woodson said with Lin and how he treated Lin while he coached Lin.I mean, don’t get me wrong, I was always waiting for Woody to turn on Lin but he didn’t. And when you add in what Woody said, he said Lin was his starter. And when we were all expecting Davis to get the nod over Lin, Woody never went there. Yes, a problem the Knicks had was that Lin, Melo and STAT all play their best when they have the ball, but so does Felton. He’s just worse at it than Lin.

      The role that Fields was relegated to under Woody is something you can replace with a vet minimum player until Shump returns. Basically, just someone who can hit a three when the ball is kicked out to him. Also, a major difference between Lin and Fields is that Fields had to improve on this season to be worth his contract. Lin just has to be as good as he already was.

    76. Z-man

      PrecociousNeophyte: Is there another player that has had a comparable start to Lin and then flamed out?Based on how his career started, isn’t there more evidence that he will be really good than bad or even merely average?To my knowledge, basketball is not like baseball with the ‘flash in the pan’ type phenomenon when we are dealing with a player of Lin’s age/experience.

      Landry Fields, who was rookie of the month twice and was being compared to all-time great John Havlicek.

      Again, don’t leave out the part that Lin’s trend was significantly downward and he physically broke down after getting slammed into the hardwood game after game and trying to follow stronger, faster PGs around hard screens. Don’t leave out that we haven’t seen him play since the knee surgery.

      Also, Chris Duhon was everybody’s favorite for a while as he and DLee rocked the p&r. Then other teams scouted them and decided “hey, let’s just go with the roller and force Felton to shoot from the perimeter.

      Felton was playing to career highs and all-star levels for 40 games or so in his first go-around with the Knicks. Look at his numbers during their 13 of 14 run where Amare went wild, just as impressive as Linsanity. Then the league figured that out as well.

      Both Felton and Duhon showed signs of breaking down physically from overuse after 30 games or so, and started trending towards their career numbers. Just like Lin started trending to who he probably really was and probably will be during an 82-game campaign.

    77. Brian Cronin

      My thing with Felton is if he insists that he likes to take the weight off in training camp and that it helps him, doesn’t it make sense to then lay off him until the season starts? If he is fat then, then yeah, fuck him. But if he says he can get it off in training camp, I guess I believe him.

    78. Frank

      Brian Cronin:
      My thing with Felton is if he insists that he likes to take the weight off in training camp and that it helps him, doesn’t it make sense to then lay off him until the season starts? If he is fat then, then yeah, fuck him. But if he says he can get it off in training camp, I guess I believe him.

      Does anyone think that’s a good strategy? What actually good player shows up fat on purpose?

      Felton has to know that his short honeymoon with the NYK fans from 2010 is over. He’s coming in here to replace someone who became a world icon. He needs to bring it from day 1. If he shows up fat to training camp, he’ll be ripped to shreds.

    79. Juany8

      Man it’s been a while since I was on here but I felt like I had to comment on this whole Lin situation, especially since I happen to be a Rockets fan who got to live through both sides of the experience.

      First off, let me just say that I’m not that big a believer in Jeremy Lin, especially the way the Knicks are constucted. This team needs someone who can shoot 3’s, play excellent defense, and keep the turnovers low, none of which Lin was good at. In fact if we somehow got the Jason Kidd of 2 years ago, when Dallas won the title, I’d say he’d be the single best PG this particular roster could have, in the entire NBA. Kidd is a far better passer than Lin, and just 2 years ago Chandler was constantly feasting on easy lobs at the rim. Obviously he’s older now, but there is a chance the lockout affected him more than other players (Carlisle made a big deal about how the whole team was out of shape to start the season)

      As far as actually matching the offer, however, that was a no brainer as far as basketball moves go. Since this team is capped out, they aren’t going to be able to add players other than through the mini mid level anyways. This means that other than out “big 3″, nobody on this roster will make more than $3 million in the next several years, and most of those players are either old (Kidd, Camby) or limited (Felton, JR, Novak) enough that the Knicks aren’t getting any better players for them. The only real trade piece left on the team is Shumpert, who is currently recovering from a major injury. Ironic as it seems, Jeremy Lin represented the only real chance this team had at flexibility the next 3 years, either through his own improvement or as a legit trading chip (Shump, Kidd, Lin, and Camby for Chris Paul? If he really wanted to come here next year that’s a solid offer…) Because of the particular situation, matching Lin was always the right move basketball wise

    80. yellowboy90

      My question is why are the Knicks not going in hard after Pietrus since the Cs are clearly slow playing him? Are they waiting on Foye who appears like he will be left out of the cold for mini mle money.

      MY SG list would be

      Pietrus
      Delfino
      Foye
      Belineli
      Brewer
      C.J. Miles
      before Kidd’s accident I would’ve included Delonte West but Smith and West on the same team. I dunno but it would create a great pun on their last names. lol

    81. bobneptune

      Frank:

      3) Re:

      As Hollinger wrote (and I wrote about yesterday) – there was no way Lin would have accepted a S&T after that 1st (4y/28.8M) offer was on the table. The most he could have made on a S&T was 4y/24, and then he would willfully be forcing his new team to give up useful assets for him. S&T was a mirage.The Arenas provision REALLY makes it tough on the incumbent team because unlike normal S&T, the “signing team” (in this case, NYK) can only offer an MLE-type contract, whereas the team that wants him (HOU) can offer more. The player needs to agree to the S&T, and it makes no sense to do that if you are offered more than the MLE.

      A couple of things frank.

      I trained race horses in Ny for 30 years professionally. I never bought a horse for $250,000 that was a great buy at that price and would have been a crappy buy for $300,000. Lin was either worth the money as a player, or he wasn’t.

      I don’t buy the argument he was well worth the money with a 9.3 million 3rd year and wasn’t worth it with a 15 million 3rd year. I just don’t but that with all the ancillary income Lin represents.

      As far as the sign and trade was concerned Houston was the only other bidder for Lin’s services. Had the knicks thought he wasn’t worth keeping, they could have said to houston, throw a couple of second round picks our way and we won’t match a 4 yr 24 million offer sheet. They save $, you get assets.

      If they thought Fatty, the drunk and a 35 yr old rookie were the answer, why not get something in return for an asset?

      The obvious answer is jimmy d got somehow butthurt and took his ball and went home.

    82. formido

      So…much…wrong…where…to…begin.

      If we’re talking about personal stats, Lin’s trend started downward when he had to reintegrate Amare and Carmelo. In addition, Carmelo was not trying hard during those games. This is indisputable.

      If instead we’re talking about being a *winner*, he had a dip, and then trended strongly up. See post-Woodson. That was the promise of Lin.

      Lin had a single injury that slowed him down. Getting slammed to the hardwood didn’t slow him down. You don’t tear your meniscus getting slammed to the hardwood. Moreover, meniscus surgery is not “major knee surgery”. It’s routine knee surgery. This is Lin’s first missed time from injury playing organized basketball, from what I can gather. NBA players get injured, a lot. They miss time, a lot. Carmelo, Amare, Chandler, Shump, Davis, need I go on. Just last season. Pretending Lin’s knee injury is any more predictive of problems than anyone else is silly.

      Love the rhetorical tactic of slipping in “stronger, faster guards” as if you’ve somewhere proved that Lin is physically inadequate to play PG in the NBA. He is by no means a small or skinny guard, and NBA sport science measured his first step as almost as fast as Derrick Rose’s, so, by at least some measures of speed, he is more than adequate.

      Z-man: Again, don’t leave out the part that Lin’s trend was significantly downward and he physically broke down after getting slammed into the hardwood game after game and trying to follow stronger, faster PGs around hard screens. Don’t leave out that we haven’t seen him play since the knee surgery.

    83. Juany8

      The only way it was smart for Lin to agree to a sign and trade to the Rockets is if he absolutely wanted to go there and New York was willing to match any offer. Why would he take less than what he could make just to cost his new team assets, especially since he said he preferred to stay in New York.

      The real intelligent move, which might have happened if the Knicks were seriously going to let him go the whole time, but have been a sign and trade between Dragic and Lin. The Rockets were losing Dragic for nothing anyways, that trade gets everyone what theyr’e looking for and the Rockets would probably agree just to guarantee they have Lin, while the knicks have a straight up better player to start on the roster. This only would have happened if the Knicks were absolutely sure they didn’t want Lin though

    84. Brian Cronin

      Does anyone think that’s a good strategy? What actually good player shows up fat on purpose?

      Felton has to know that his short honeymoon with the NYK fans from 2010 is over. He’s coming in here to replace someone who became a world icon. He needs to bring it from day 1. If he shows up fat to training camp, he’ll be ripped to shreds.

      Well, did he come into training camp in 2010 overweight? I honestly don’t recall. Does anyone here remember?

    85. formido

      Luckily, we don’t only have to go off unsupported opinion. The Knicks this year with this coach had the longest period of above trend play of the season. 7-1 under Woodson. No need to speculate about Lin’s strengths fitting in with the team. They just fit. And they won.

      Actually, both of the Knick’s longest periods of above trend play were Lin led streaks, one under D’Antoni and one under Woodson.

      @ruruland did yeoman work in teasing out and demonstrating the reasons Lin was perfect fit for this lineup from a theoretical standpoint. But regardless, we have wonderful empirical data. Also, part of that streak, Lin’s knee was injured, or presumably his stats would look prettier too.

      Juany8: First off, let me just say that I’m not that big a believer in Jeremy Lin, especially the way the Knicks are constucted.

    86. PrecociousNeophyte

      Why are we comparing Felton and Duhon to Lin? The question was about young players like Lin getting their first real action/rookies.

    87. Brian Cronin

      The only way it was smart for Lin to agree to a sign and trade to the Rockets is if he absolutely wanted to go there and New York was willing to match any offer. Why would he take less than what he could make just to cost his new team assets, especially since he said he preferred to stay in New York.

      The real intelligent move, which might have happened if the Knicks were seriously going to let him go the whole time, but have been a sign and trade between Dragic and Lin. The Rockets were losing Dragic for nothing anyways, that trade gets everyone what theyr’e looking for and the Rockets would probably agree just to guarantee they have Lin, while the knicks have a straight up better player to start on the roster. This only would have happened if the Knicks were absolutely sure they didn’t want Lin though

      Agreed. That’s my point about how this was either mishandled the whole way through or it was mishandled late by Dolan. If the Knicks truly did not want Lin, they absolutely should have made an offer to Houston early on for something. Dragic or whatever. That’s the only way they could avoid Houston offering Lin the bigger contract on their own, at which point Lin obviously wouldn’t take less than that. That they did not do that sure seems to suggest that they were planning on matching whatever the Rockets came up with…until they didn’t.

    88. formido

      Well, maybe not a perfect fit. Don’t want to put words in his mouth. But an excellent one.

    89. boredNsleepy

      bobneptune: A couple of things frank.

      I trained race horses in Ny for 30 years professionally. I never bought a horse for $250,000 that was a great buy at that price and would have been a crappy buy for $300,000. Lin was either worth the money as a player, or he wasn’t.

      I don’t buy the argument he was well worth the money with a 9.3 million 3rd year and wasn’t worth it with a 15 million 3rd year. I just don’t but that with all the ancillary income Lin represents.

      As far as the sign and trade was concerned Houston was the only other bidder for Lin’s services. Had the knicks thought he wasn’t worth keeping, they could have said to houston, throw a couple of second round picks our way and we won’t match a 4 yr 24 million offer sheet. They save $, you get assets.

      If they thought Fatty, the drunk and a 35 yr old rookie were the answer, why not get something in return for an asset?

      The obvious answer is jimmy d got somehow butthurt and took his ball and went home.

      Can we all agree that Knicks office screwed the deals. We have never offer Lin any contract. The only contract Lin received was the poison pills. He has to sign it else he won’t be an nba player today. The match thing was all just bs talk, there was never written on any piece of paper.

    90. ephus

      bobneptune: As far as the sign and trade was concerned Houston was the only other bidder for Lin’s services. Had the knicks thought he wasn’t worth keeping, they could have said to houston, throw a couple of second round picks our way and we won’t match a 4 yr 24 million offer sheet. They save $, you get assets.

      Unfortunately, that does not work under the CBA. A team cannot get compensation for agreeing not to match. If the Knicks could have gotten Lin to sign for 4 years/$22.5 million, they could have elected to sign-and-trade Lin for two second round picks but (1) Lin was not saying yes to 4 years/$22.5 million once he got the 4 years/$28.6 million offer from Houston, and (2) Knicks would have gotten even more heat for letting Lin go on that deal, because it would not have triggered a huge tax liability.

    91. bobneptune

      PrecociousNeophyte:
      Is there another player that has had a comparable start to Lin and then flamed out?

      Older Knick fans will remember Billy the hill McGill. #1 pick in the 1962 draft, flamed out after a good start and was out of the league in 3 years.

    92. ephus

      bobneptune: I trained race horses in Ny for 30 years professionally. I never bought a horse for $250,000 that was a great buy at that price and would have been a crappy buy for $300,000. Lin was either worth the money as a player, or he wasn’t.
      I don’t buy the argument he was well worth the money with a 9.3 million 3rd year and wasn’t worth it with a 15 million 3rd year. I just don’t but that with all the ancillary income Lin represents.

      But the difference for the Knicks between the two contracts was about $25 million in 2014-15: five million in salary and around $20 million in tax.

      Also, the ancillary income is limited. As per Darren Rovell, except for merchandise sales at MSG or through nyknicks.com, the Knicks share all merchandising revenues equally with all 30 teams. The same is true for overseas merchandise and overseas broadcast rights. Lin might have drawn new Chinese sponsors, which would help the bottom line.

      Lin already made a huge contribution to MSG by forcing Time-Warner Cable to settle the carriage fees during the height of Linsanity. But that contract is not going to be up for renewal for many years.

      The other big box office splash that Lin would make is marketing appeal to Chinese New Yorkers. I think this would have been huge. The Knicks could have created deep bonds in the same way that the Yankees created deep bonds in the 1920s-40s with Italian immigrants with players like DiMaggio.

    93. Richmond County

      Jerome Jordan, sent to the Rockets to make salaries work on the S&T, was cut by Houston and is now back on the Knicks Summer League team, although he can’t re-sign with the real Knicks for a year. The scenarios that play out due to Free Agency Rules are maddening sometimes.

    94. bobneptune

      ephus: Unfortunately, that does not work under the CBA.A team cannot get compensation for agreeing not to match.If the Knicks could have gotten Lin to sign for 4 years/$22.5 million, they could have elected to sign-and-trade Lin for two second round picks but (1) Lin was not saying yes to 4 years/$22.5 million once he got the 4 years/$28.6 million offer from Houston, and (2) Knicks would have gotten even more heat for letting Lin go on that deal, because it would not have triggered a huge tax liability.

      My point was couldn’t they call houston and say, we know you want him as your starter/draw, we’ll agree to sign and trade him to you for 22.5 for 4. Lin had no other offers than houston, correct?

      if they didn’t think he was significantly better than the Fatty, drunk and 35 yr old rookie combo, they should have gotten something for him.

      I mean they could have offered him a contract as a RFA rather than telling him to test the waters, but they got penny wise and dollar foolish and underestimated his market.

      So, they were left with a tough choice and let an asset go for nothing because they were butthurt over underestimating his market value. And they have the mouthbreathers out in force saying it is the fault to the greedy yellow skinned guy.

    95. bobneptune

      Richmond County:
      Jerome Jordan, sent to the Rockets to make salaries work on the S&T, was cut by Houston and is now back on the Knicks Summer League team, although he can’t re-sign with the real Knicks for a year.The scenarios that play out due to Free Agency Rules are maddening sometimes.

      So he goes back to play in the serbian league for another year?

    96. DS

      I think Ray’s shooting is a bigger issue than the differences in weight and muscle in those two pics.

    97. bobneptune

      Richmond County:
      Jerome Jordan, sent to the Rockets to make salaries work on the S&T, was cut by Houston and is now back on the Knicks Summer League team, although he can’t re-sign with the real Knicks for a year.The scenarios that play out due to Free Agency Rules are maddening sometimes.

      Charley Finley had it right…. there should only be one year contracts in professional sports. Everyone is a free agent at the end of every year.

      The top guys would always get their money, but the kris humphrey’s of the world wouldn’t get 12 million a year if everyone was available every year.

    98. bobneptune

      ephus: But the difference for the Knicks between the two contracts was about $25 million in 2014-15:five million in salary and around $20 million in tax.

      Ephus,

      if Rashard Lewis and Agent zero could be traded with ridiculous contracts a 25 yr old Lin could have been moved in the last year of his contract and avoided the luxury tax.

    99. Frank

      Brian Cronin: Agreed. That’s my point about how this was either mishandled the whole way through or it was mishandled late by Dolan. If the Knicks truly did not want Lin, they absolutely should have made an offer to Houston early on for something. Dragic or whatever. That’s the only way they could avoid Houston offering Lin the bigger contract on their own, at which point Lin obviously wouldn’t take less than that. That they did not do that sure seems to suggest that they were planning on matching whatever the Rockets came up with…until they didn’t.

      Trouble with that is that the market value for both Dragic and Lin were more than the max the Knicks could offer in a sign and trade (like ephus pointed out above), not to mention that it would have been hard to make the salaries match up because of the Arenas provision.

      Again – having had a couple days to cool down from the whole debacle – I feel like a lot more thought went into this than was immediately apparent to us. I no longer think that this was just a toddler tantrum by Dolan. The combination of the Arenas rule and the new luxury tax is deadly.

    100. DS

      I hope Kobe get D’Antoni hired, Lakers win the title, and Dolan looks stupid yet again.

      Gideon Zaga: Again if the Lakers get Dwight like they should,

      1.Lakers
      2.Heat
      3.OKC
      4.Celtics
      5.Knicks
      6.Spurs
      7.Clippers
      8.Bulls
      9.Dallas
      10.Memphis vs Hornets

        

    101. ruruland

      Rosen: “Even in his dotage, though, J-Kidd remains a terrific and unselfish passer. His ability to facilitate and organize half-court offenses is superb, and his on-target long-distance passes take full advantage of running situations”

      Telling you, Kidd is going to fit quite well.

    102. Frank

      bobneptune:
      if Rashard Lewis and Agent zero could be traded with ridiculous contracts a 25 yr old Lin could have been moved in the last year of his contract and avoided the luxury tax.

      Remember, both Lewis and Arenas were traded for other contracts that similarly would have had luxury tax implications. The only way we could have escaped that is to trade him to a team with cap room or a huge trade exception. Not guaranteed by any means.

      And by the way, re: your comment about a 250K horse vs. a 300K horse — the probable difference with tax+salary between Felton and Lin was $50 MILLION dollars over 3 years. Not 50 THOUSAND. I’m pretty sure there’s a difference in terms of good buy or bad buy wit those numbers.

    103. DS

      Frank: The combination of the Arenas rule and the new luxury tax is deadly

      But with this stretch provision, they could have alleviated the “deadliness” by cutting Lin, right? The financial risks still seem minimal to me.

    104. Frank

      DS: But with this stretch provision, they could have alleviated the “deadliness” by cutting Lin, right? The financial risks still seem minimal to me.

      It makes it less horrible, but still – like I wrote yesterday or whenever – (estimating luxury tax, not exact #s but prob close)

      2012-13 –> $5M salary, 7.5-8M luxury tax = 13M
      2013-14 –> $5M salary, ~9M luxury tax = 14M
      2014-15 –> WAIVED, stretch $5M salary, ~12M luxury tax = 17M
      2015-16 –> WAIVED, stretch $5M salary + cap clogging
      2016-17 –> WAIVED, stretch $5M salary + cap clogging

      TOTAL = $54M paid for 2 years vs. ~75M paid for 3 years.
      It’s still not good. On top of that, we have $5M dead money in 15-16 and 16-17 when we would presumably be under the cap trying to sign the Kevin Loves of the world.

      Arenas + luxury tax is a killer. Not sure anyone realized how much of a killer until now. I certainly didn’t.

    105. tastycakes

      The tax hit wouldn’t exist because of Lin’s contract. It would exist because of the Knick’s TOTAL PAYROLL.

      In 2 years you could look at Melo / Tyson / STAT / Lin and make a rational decision as to which of the highest paid four was providing the least bang for buck and try to move that (soon to expire) contract, or waive the player using the napkin provision. Blanket. Curtain. Whatever.

      The idea that not signing Lin somehow gives the Knicks more flexibility is a bald-faced lie.

      It’s just as disingenuous as arguing that because Lin had a bad game against Miami that he’s criminally overrated. The dude was a rookie. If you drafted a rookie and his first 25 games looked like Lin’s, would you ever let him go without finding out what you have? None of this makes sense.

      Still gutted about my team, but I live in Austin… maybe I’ll go see Linsanity Texas Edition. Houston is lucky.

    106. Frank

      continued… now compare that to Felton, who my guess is they think he’s somewhat close to Lin in terms of projected production:

      2012-13 –> $3.5M salary + ~6M tax = 9.5M
      2013-14 –> $3.5M salary + ~7M tax = 10.5M
      2014-15 –> $3.5M salary + ~10M tax = 13.5M

      total = 33.5M for 3 years

      If you think they will have equal or near-equal production, it’s basically paying $15M more per year for Lin in EITHER scenario.

    107. New Guy

      I just realized that somewhere in Houston there is an army of RuRuland’s joining the comments section of a Rockets blog attacking every Texan who doesn’t think Jeremy Lin is worth the money.

    108. formido

      In two years Lin will have been to a couple all-star games. Probably not deserved, strictly speaking, but the recognition will make it impossible to ignore that he’s putting up near all-star numbers, whether through win shares, or PER, or adjusted +/-, or whatever your fav metric is. And the only folks’ arguments who will be remembered are those who said this was a stupid decision. “But he didn’t fit with the Knicks line-up” will sound hilariously hollow. So hollow in fact, that I promise you no one will be saying it. Instead, losing Lin will be back fit seamlessly into the story arc of the Knicks, featuring Dolan as bumbling egotistical idiot.

    109. max fisher-cohen

      @Z-Man

      I am willing to accept the argument (even though I don’t agree with it) that if you ran 100 simulations of the season, Felton’s Knicks would advance to the 2nd round more often than Lin’s. After all, the East has only one top tier team: Miami. Boston is a second tier team, and then, Indiana and Chicago are probably all slightly better than New York, with New Jersey as the Knicks’ equal. After that, it’s a mountain of crap.

      Therefore, the Felton Knicks are almost guaranteed to finish somewhere between 4th and 6th in the east, possibly win a playoff series, and then get the crap kicked out of them.

      However, with Lin, there is a chance we are crap (assuming Lin being here meant Felton would NOT be here) since Lin is not as proven as Felton, but there’s also a chance that when Lin was faltering, it was, as Ruru persistently argues, Melo and Lin hadn’t learned to play off each other, and that by the end of the season, both Melo and Lin would be putting up better numbers than EITHER had EVER in their careers.

      You see, if you are going to make the argument that Lin’s small track record makes it possible he’s a flash in the pan, you are also conceding that that same small track record means he could also be much BETTER than anything we’ve seen from him.

      that means that, yeah, there would be a few disaster seasons in those 100 simulations where the Knicks didn’t even make the playoffs, but at the same time there’d be a few miracle seasons where Lin, Melo and Stat combined to form a coherent offense, a first since Anthony came over here, and that we’d make a run to the finals.

      By choosing Felton over Lin, we rule out the very tiny chance of that miracle season. We condemn the Knicks to being the new Atlanta Hawks.

    110. DS

      Frank:
      continued… now compare that to Felton, who my guess is they think he’s somewhat close to Lin in terms of projected production:

      2012-13 –> $3.5M salary + ~6M tax = 9.5M
      2013-14 –> $3.5M salary + ~7M tax = 10.5M
      2014-15 –> $3.5M salary + ~10M tax = 13.5M

      total = 33.5M for 3 years

      If you think they will have equal or near-equal production, it’s basically paying $15M more per year for Lin in EITHER scenario.

      Frank, thanks for laying that out. I happen to think that the additional $15 million would have been a good financial risk that Lin will continue to be a marketing sensation. But I assume your point is not that Dolan made a shrewd move but that the financial implications are, indeed, significant. Fair enough.

      I happen to think the Knicks, Rangers, and FUSE network are just Dolan’s toys that he plays with as he see fits.

    111. Z-man

      max fisher-cohen: By choosing Felton over Lin, we rule out the very tiny chance of that miracle season. We condemn the Knicks to being the new Atlanta Hawks.

      True or not, it is reasonable not to take that gamble at the enormous cost of that contract. It is especially not a good idea to make a deal to placate the pie-eyed fan base who fell in love with a 10-game Cinderella story that is almost certainly too good to be true. Either way, of all the things I have to hate Dolan for, this is not one of them. Frankly, if Lin wanted to be here, he would be here. Same with Landry. Good riddance to both of them.

    112. thenamestsam

      ruruland:
      Rosen: “Even in his dotage, though, J-Kidd remains a terrific and unselfish passer. His ability to facilitate and organize half-court offenses is superb, and his on-target long-distance passes take full advantage of running situations”

      Telling you, Kidd is going to fit quite well.

      I’m very curious to hear you expand on this. One week ago you were trumpeting how well Lin was going to fit into this offense. I’m not sure there are two PGs in the league who play more different styles than Lin and Kidd. But now Kidd is also going to fit very well? That doesn’t make much sense to me.

      The way I see it our big problem in the playoffs was that the only guys on the whole team who could reliably get their own shot were Melo and JR. Amare and Tyson were both limited in effectiveness by bad PG play (also a lack of health to be fair). That forced both Melo and JR to do way way too much and let to a lot of clunking by both of them.

      Felton may help alleviate that problem if he’s in shape because he can get to the hole if he’s in shape. Kidd, not so much. When he’s on the floor I can’t see the offense being anything other than the stagnant mess it was in the playoffs this year. How was the Mavs half-court offense this year?

    113. JC Knickfan

      Frank: Trouble with that is that the market value for both Dragic and Lin were more than the max the Knicks could offer in a sign and trade (like ephus pointed out above), not to mention that it would have been hard to make the salaries match up because of the Arenas provision.

      Again – having had a couple days to cool down from the whole debacle – I feel like a lot more thought went into this than was immediately apparent to us.I no longer think that this was just a toddler tantrum by Dolan.The combination of the Arenas rule and the new luxury tax is deadly.

      Everything Woodson or Glen was quoted saying they wanted J Lin back. The only thing I read was Dolan felt betrayed by Lin. Also some people think CAA was behind this. Woodson change agent to CAA was prime example the kind influence they have. Also look at grudge Dolan kept against Woodson old agent. Plus when has Dolan every been afraid to spend money? The deadly pill wasn’t until 3 years from now?
      Every sign still seem this was personal and not about money.

    114. The Infamous Cdiggy

      ephus: But the difference for the Knicks between the two contracts was about $25 million in 2014-15:five million in salary and around $20 million in tax.

      Also, the ancillary income is limited.As per Darren Rovell, except for merchandise sales at MSG or through nyknicks.com, the Knicks share all merchandising revenues equally with all 30 teams.The same is true for overseas merchandise and overseas broadcast rights.Lin might have drawn new Chinese sponsors, which would help the bottom line.

      Lin already made a huge contribution to MSG by forcing Time-Warner Cable to settle the carriage fees during the height of Linsanity.But that contract is not going to be up for renewal for many years.

      The other big box office splash that Lin would make is marketing appeal to Chinese New Yorkers.I think this would have been huge.The Knicks could have created deep bonds in the same way that the Yankees created deep bonds in the 1920s-40s with Italian immigrants with players like DiMaggio.

      To me, this is the reason why Lin was worth it.

    115. max fisher-cohen

      Z-man: True or not, it is reasonable not to take that gamble at the enormous cost of that contract. It is especially not a good idea to make a deal to placate the pie-eyed fan base who fell in love with a 10-game Cinderella story that is almost certainly too good to be true. Either way, of all the things I have to hate Dolan for, this is not one of them.Frankly, if Lin wanted to be here, he would be here.Same with Landry.Good riddance to both of them.

      I would be fine with the “Lin is not worth the price” argument if NY was going to try to build a team that could compete. For example, if right now we accepted that this entire core would never work given the new CBA, and we put EVERYONE but Shumpert on the market for picks and youth.

      That would suggest this team intended to try to win a championship. That’s all I expect of my team: always work in the right direction. But they would never do that because Dolan is more concerned with having a team that HE built than having a team that is actually headed in a sensible direction. Unfortunately, he lacks the basketball knowledge to ever build smartly, so the only thing we knick fans were left with was praying for a miracle. We found something that walked and talked like it might be that miracle, but then we let it go, undermining my faith in the one thing I actually liked about Dolan: his deep pockets.

    116. bobneptune

      Frank: Remember, both Lewis and Arenas were traded for other contracts that similarly would have had luxury tax implications. The only way we could have escaped that is to trade him to a team with cap room or a huge trade exception.Not guaranteed by any means.

      Recently the knicks dumped eddy curry’s 11.3 M on Mn for the price of a non rotation player (randolph)

      The nuggets, jazz and dallas all have currently> 10m in trade exceptions available.

      There is maneuverability available down the road with Lin’s poison pill.

      I just don’t understand for the next 2 seasons how the knicks aren’t much better with Lin on the roster than if he is not.

    117. boredNsleepy

      max fisher-cohen: I would be fine with the “Lin is not worth the price” argument if NY was going to try to build a team that could compete. For example, if right now we accepted that this entire core would never work given the new CBA, and we put EVERYONE but Shumpert on the market for picks and youth.

      That would suggest this team intended to try to win a championship. That’s all I expect of my team: always work in the right direction. But they would never do that because Dolan is more concerned with having a team that HE built than having a team that is actually headed in a sensible direction. Unfortunately, he lacks the basketball knowledge to ever build smartly, so the only thing we knick fans were left with was praying for a miracle. We found something that walked and talked like it might be that miracle, but then we let it go, undermining my faith in the one thing I actually liked about Dolan: his deep pockets.

      Agreed. It’s not like we still have the 5 mils after we lost Lin.

    118. 2010

      Anyone know a good site that lists what cap room/exceptions teams still have?

      It seems like the market has really dried up for 2 guards and cleary that is a position of need for the knicks. Hopefully one of them will be willing to be under paid for a year for the chance to start and re-enter free agency next year.

      I’m over Lin. I hope the move was made for basketball reasons and not some personal grudge. The part that bothers me the most is the loss if the asset and flexabilty, because going forward it will be tough to make any roster additions or changes.

    119. bobneptune

      Z-man: True or not, it is reasonable not to take that gamble at the enormous cost of that contract.

      I need someone who is in favor of not matching Lin to answer a single question for me:

      For the next 2 seasons (an optimistic shelf life for chandler-amar’e – melo) are the knicks significantly better with or without Lin?

      I think that answer is obvious.

    120. boredNsleepy

      bobneptune: I need someone who is in favor of not matching Lin to answer a single question for me:

      For the next 2 seasons (an optimistic shelf life for chandler-amar’e – melo) are the knicks significantly better with or without Lin?

      I think that answer is obvious.

      I genuinely doubt that Melo will have trust with the ball in Lin’s hand. Frankly, Melo can be a better Pg than Lin if he wants to. So, I still think chemistry will continue to be our prob if Lin is our starting PG.

    121. d-mar

      bobneptune: I need someone who is in favor of not matching Lin to answer a single question for me:

      For the next 2 seasons (an optimistic shelf life for chandler-amar’e – melo) are the knicks significantly better with or without Lin?

      I think that answer is obvious.

      Please explain how you know that, just curious

    122. Z-man

      Another thing, everybody is talking about how stupid Dolan is. What about Lin? For an extra 5 million in guaranteed salary, he gave up the opportunity to be the starting PG of a sure playoff team in the media capital of the world. This decision of his (and there is no disputing that by signing that offer sheet, it was ultimately his decision) will cost him many, many multiples of the $5 million he gained by signing that ridiculous offer sheet with Houston.

    123. thenamestsam

      Z-man:
      Another thing, everybody is talking about how stupid Dolan is. What about Lin? For an extra 5 million in guaranteed salary, he gave up the opportunity to be the starting PG of a sure playoff team in the media capital of the world.This decision of his (and there is no disputing that by signing that offer sheet, it was ultimately his decision) will cost him many, many multiples of the $5 million he gained by signing that ridiculous offer sheet with Houston.

      Definitely cost him, but I don’t see how there’s any way he could have anticipated that the extra $5M would cause the Knicks not to match. You can say that it was “ultimately his decision” but he clearly could not have understood the decision he was making when he made it. Even the people who now think the Knicks made the right decision considered it a foregone conclusion that the Knicks would match. Not matching hadn’t even been broached as a possibility. The Knicks had leaked that they would match an offer up to 1 billion, and Woodson had already anointed him the starter. He should have been able to anticipate that adding the $5M would lead to not getting matched?

    124. Count de Pennies

      formido: And the only folks’ arguments who will be remembered are those who said this was a stupid decision. Instead, losing Lin will be back fit seamlessly into the story arc of the Knicks, featuring Dolan as bumbling egotistical idiot.

      Can we all agree that at this point, no one knows enough to say with any certainty how good a player Jeremy Lin will turn out to be?

      Honestly, I have no idea. It would not surprise me if he were a two-time All Star over the next two years. Nor would it shock me if he wound up glued to the bench of out or the league entirely after that same amount of time.

      But even if the latter turns out to be the case and hindsight shows that letting Lin walk was the correct basketball decision, that should in no way change the narrative that this was a decision largely made by a bumbling, egotistical idiot.

      I’m sorry; I just can’t envision any scenario in which an insecure, emotionally stunted owner who has been known to scream “I’m controlling this process! I run this fucking company!” at any employee who has exhibited even the tiniest shred of independent initiative would cede a decision of this magnitude to anyone but himself.

      I can certainly understand why some Knick fans are now straining to convince themselves that this was a decision made following a carefully considered risk/reward analysis. But the image of Dolan sitting in the MSG boardroom studiously taking notes while Grunwald presents his “Keep Lin?” Powerpoint is just comically absurd. I’ve no doubt that arguments pro and con were timidly proffered to the Big Man who, in the end, simply followed his impulse.

      Again, I’m not mad about losing Lin per se. What angers me is that this appears to be more of the same; another shoot-from-the-hip decision that’s informed pretty much every awful move made during Dolan’s doleful reign.

    125. PrecociousNeophyte

      Z-man:
      Another thing, everybody is talking about how stupid Dolan is. What about Lin? For an extra 5 million in guaranteed salary, he gave up the opportunity to be the starting PG of a sure playoff team in the media capital of the world.This decision of his (and there is no disputing that by signing that offer sheet, it was ultimately his decision) will cost him many, many multiples of the $5 million he gained by signing that ridiculous offer sheet with Houston.

      If we look at it objectively how attractive is the Knicks franchise to a young player? We are talking about a team with 1 playoff win in 10 years and arguably the worst team in the NBA over that span. Not to mention a management team that has repeatedly disgraced itself over the years and has pretty much shamed every person/player to leave the franchise.

      Jeremy Lin is 23 years old. He has a long career ahead of him. Who do you think is more likely to be a succesful and stable franchise over the next ~10 years. The Knicks or Rockets?

      Of course, the above doesn’t even address the fact that $5M is A LOT for a professional athlete that hasn’t cashed in yet. Finally, in the globalized market we live in, how much of an advantage does NY really bring in the marketing department? Especially with Lin who already has a worldwide following?

      I don’t think Lin wanted to leave NY, but honestly and objectively the Rockets are probably a far better situation for him. We are not talking about the Yankees or Giants here. The Knicks are an extremely dysfunctional franchise without a strong tradition of winning.

    126. bobneptune

      d-mar: Please explain how you know that, just curious

      I don’t “know” that with metaphysical certitude, but I believe logic dictates when you add a young player who guided this team to a 16-10 record as a starter playing part of the time needing surgery and part of that time with a “star” player that was laying down trying to get the coach fired, and then you subtract said player, the team is worse.

      Also a back court of felton, kidd, european 35 yr old, jr , PLUS Lin must be better than the same back court without lin.

      Unless you somehow believe Lin is addition by subtraction. What was the team 7-15 before Lin and 16-10 with lin? That argues he was a pretty significant positive force, no?

    127. boredNsleepy

      I won’t be mad if Knicks actually proposed 4 years 24mils contract to Lin, I would have ambush Lin if he didn’t sign it and want to test the FA market himself. The problem is we never even tried, even once.

    128. bobneptune

      Z-man:
      Another thing, everybody is talking about how stupid Dolan is. What about Lin? For an extra 5 million in guaranteed salary, he gave up the opportunity to be the starting PG of a sure playoff team in the media capital of the world.This decision of his (and there is no disputing that by signing that offer sheet, it was ultimately his decision) will cost him many, many multiples of the $5 million he gained by signing that ridiculous offer sheet with Houston.

      I don’t get this. You make like 5 million is chicken feed to a guy that was crashing on couches 6 months ago. Let me know the next time you turn down 5 million.

      And of course over the 28.1 million contract he saves 1.94 million in NOT paying NY state income tax. I realize that means nothing either to you.

      I’m also guessing he can have all the endorsements he wants in Houston and he won’t have to deal with melo’s incessant me first attitude or Kidd stabbing him in the back for more PT. Or a meddling moron of an owner who won’t allow the people he hires to do their jobs?

      The weather is better in Houston, too.

      What is so special about playing for the knicks vs the rockets, other than you are a knick fan? Think he’ll have any trouble getting laid in Texas? Probably, not, ehhhh!

    129. arthurprescott2

      Can we talk about our summer league players now? No point in discussing Lin much longer unless you guys want to talk general NBA balancing stuff in the West.

    130. massive

      Anybody watching the Olympic games? It looks like Melo is playing the hardest of all Team USA players. It’s between him and Russell Westbrook.

    131. bc2k

      I’m just glad Lin got away from this forsaken hole called NYKnicks. He can finally play somewhere else and flourish. About people saying he’ll be gettiing more endorsement deals in NYC? That’s non-sense. The world’s top 30 endorsement ranking athletes, NONE of them play or live in NY. Also during the Yao years in Houston, everyone on their team (including bench warmers) got a shoe deal from China.

    132. bobneptune

      arthurprescott2:
      Can we talk about our summer league players now? No point in discussing Lin much longer unless you guys want to talk general NBA balancing stuff in the West.

      Sure.

      Lamb, Machado, Monteijunas and Terrence Jones are tearing up the sides averaging 20.0, 8.0, 16.3, and 18.2 respectively. Lin’s gonna have him some fun when Bynum shows up under the christmas tree soon!

      Do the knicks have a summer league team with any interesting players?

    133. arthurprescott2

      bc2k:
      I’m just glad Lin got away from this forsaken hole called NYKnicks. He can finally play somewhere else and flourish. About people saying he’ll be gettiing more endorsement deals in NYC? That’s non-sense. The world’s top 30 endorsement ranking athletes, NONE of them play or live in NY. Also during the Yao years in Houston, everyone on their team (including bench warmers) got a shoe deal from China.

      I guess Eli isn’t very marketable? But I would have thought at least Jeter would be in the top 30.

    134. PrecociousNeophyte

      Please tell me this isn’t true because I’m seeing people on twitter saying Raymond Felton has a 4th year player option.

    135. arthurprescott2

      bobneptune: Sure.

      Lamb, Machado, Monteijunas and Terrence Jones are tearing up the sides averaging 20.0, 8.0,16.3, and 18.2 respectively. Lin’s gonna have him some fun when Bynum shows up under the christmas tree soon!

      Do the knicks have a summer league team with any interesting players?

      Yea the Houston draft picks look amazing. As always they seem to have an eye for draft picks that pan out well. Jared Sullinger looks good too – he was exactly what the Celtics needed. Not someone you build a franchise around for sure. But he should be in the rotation this year.

      Copeland seems ok for the Knicks and don’t count out White.

    136. BigBlueAL

      That pic of Felton eating a cupcake was a pretty famous pic going around during the lockout last year.

    137. Juany8

      Lin will be perfectly happy in Houston, he’s not going to be competing with anyone for playing time or shots and he’s getting $25 million despite having under 30 career starts. There’s also a significant Asian population in Houston, and Houston knows better than any team how to maximize Lin’s off court value in Asia (Yao Ming was a bigger worldwide star than pretty much anyone in the NBA). Food is great too, although anyone who says Houston weather is great hasn’t been to Houston haha.

      Unless the Rockets get Howard or Bynum though, Lin is going to do nothing for the Rockets in the win column. When your best case scenario is being the Denver Nuggets, you shouldn’t be overpaying for players like Lin and Asik. And anyone who thinks rooting for Denver is fun should see if they still think so 2 years down the line when a bunch of role players without much upside are losing in the first round of the playoffs to a semi-contender again.

    138. arthurprescott2

      Juany8:
      Lin will be perfectly happy in Houston, he’s not going to be competing with anyone for playing time or shots and he’s getting $25 million despite having under 30 career starts. There’s also a significant Asian population in Houston, and Houston knows better than any team how to maximize Lin’s off court value in Asia (Yao Ming was a bigger worldwide star than pretty much anyone in the NBA). Food is great too, although anyone who says Houston weather is great hasn’t been to Houston haha.

      Unless the Rockets get Howard or Bynum though, Lin is going to do nothing for the Rockets in the win column. When your best case scenario is being the Denver Nuggets, you shouldn’t be overpaying for players like Lin and Asik. And anyone who thinks rooting for Denver is fun should see if they still think so 2 years down the line when a bunch of role players without much upside are losing in the first round of the playoffs to a semi-contender again.

      JaVale though – he’s a knucklehead but so fun to watch. He put up great numbers and took the move from DC to Denver in stride.

    139. Frank

      PrecociousNeophyte:
      Please tell me this isn’t true because I’m seeing people on twitter saying Raymond Felton has a 4th year player option.

      This is just horrible if it is true. To tie up our basically pristine 15-16 cap with Felton at age 32 is just a terrible idea.

      bobneptune: The nuggets, jazz and dallas all have currently> 10m in trade exceptions available.

      Remember, to use a traded player exception the incoming player has to fit completely within that exception. You can’t use cap space + TPE or trade a salary + TPE to reach Lin’s salary. I can’t remember but has there ever been a $15MM trade exception? Even Lebron was only 13.2 million.

      Look, it seems to me on my 143rd time thinking about this, that there really was no financially feasible way out of this for the Knicks if Lin did not pan out.

      – S&T basically impossible.
      – trading his expiring contract would only lead to taking on more contracts which would still hit us over the head with the luxury tax
      – stretch provision would still lead to the Knicks paying >25MM/year to Lin AND clogging up our cap in 15-16 and 16-17 when we are projected to be BELOW the cap and with a lot of FA dreams.

      So it comes down to whether or not Lin is worth the 3 year 78MM contract. And they didn’t think he was. I’m sure there was some tantrum-related contribution to that decision, but I feel pretty good about the fact that there was some detached, cold, logical thinking as well.

    140. Z-man

      Juany8: Lin will be perfectly happy in Houston, he’s not going to be competing with anyone for playing time or shots and he’s getting $25 million despite having under 30 career starts. There’s also a significant Asian population in Houston, and Houston knows better than any team how to maximize Lin’s off court value in Asia (Yao Ming was a bigger worldwide star than pretty much anyone in the NBA). Food is great too, although anyone who says Houston weather is great hasn’t been to Houston haha.Unless the Rockets get Howard or Bynum though, Lin is going to do nothing for the Rockets in the win column. When your best case scenario is being the Denver Nuggets, you shouldn’t be overpaying for players like Lin and Asik. And anyone who thinks rooting for Denver is fun should see if they still think so 2 years down the line when a bunch of role players without much upside are losing in the first round of the playoffs to a semi-contender again.

      Yao Ming was a phenom before he got to the US, was the #1 pick in the draft, and when healthy he played like a max player for an extended period. Once the fairy tale ends (probably by December) Lin is much more likely to be like Yi than Yao.

    141. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8:
      And anyone who thinks rooting for Denver is fun should see if they still think so 2 years down the line when a bunch of role players without much upside are losing in the first round of the playoffs to a semi-contender again.

      You’re right. I’d much rather see two max contract “superstars” get bounced in the first round instead. They’re much easier to root for, those superstars.

    142. Z-man

      It is still mind boggling to me how quickly people are ready to spend other people’s money to pay a probable flash in the pan more money than 2X MVP Nash ever got paid in one year. Talk about greed, how greedy can a fanbase get?

    143. Juany8

      Z-man: Yao Ming was a phenom before he got to the US, was the #1 pick in the draft, and when healthy he played like a max player for an extended period. Once the fairy tale ends (probably by December) Lin is much more likely to be like Yi than Yao.

      I doubt he’ll be as big as Yao, my main point was that the Rockets are more positioned than any other organization to take advantage of Lin. New York provides a massive market sure, but Houston isn’t exactly a small city. As a Rockets fan though, getting Lin wasn’t exactly exciting when it took dumping Lowry and losing Dragic to get him. I’d argue that both of those players are straight up better than him and have just as high a ceiling, without the possibility of falling totally flat on their faces.

      I do think Lin is going to be a pretty good player, but he’s going to be stuck around Ty Lawson/Kyle Lowry/Jrue Holiday levels, he’s not going to be anywhere near as good as players like Rose, Westbrook, CP3, and Rondo. Hell now that Washington is starting to move in a positive direction, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker are all significantly better than him for pretty much his whole career. Having a pretty good PG just doesn’t mean much anymore, especially if that PG isn’t a good defender

    144. Z-man

      I lived in Houston for a year. Couldn’t wait to get back, the most boring and ugly big city ever, in one of the least progressive states in the country. Not to mention giant flying roaches and fire ants.

    145. ephus

      Frank: Look, it seems to me on my 143rd time thinking about this, that there really was no financially feasible way out of this for the Knicks if Lin did not pan out.
      – S&T basically impossible.
      – trading his expiring contract would only lead to taking on more contracts which would still hit us over the head with the luxury tax
      – stretch provision would still lead to the Knicks paying >25MM/year to Lin AND clogging up our cap in 15-16 and 16-17 when we are projected to be BELOW the cap and with a lot of FA dreams.
      So it comes down to whether or not Lin is worth the 3 year 78MM contract. And they didn’t think he was. I’m sure there was some tantrum-related contribution to that decision, but I feel pretty good about the fact that there was some detached, cold, logical thinking as well.

      There were trades after the first season that would work — like Chandler/Lin for Iguodola/Turner. Once you get to the second off-season, it is really hard to trade $15 million in salary for nothing coming back. You would need to find a team that had $15 million in non-guaranteed salary or was below the salary cap by enough to bring in a max contract.

    146. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: You’re right. I’d much rather see two max contract “superstars” get bounced in the first round instead. They’re much easier to root for, those superstars.

      Ask Atlanta fans how much fun it was to root for a young and up and coming team. They were exactly were the Nuggets were in 07, when they took the champion Celtics to 7 games. They even won a playoff series a couple of years. Hell the Rockets since the Melo trade have been just slightly worse than the Nuggets, which unfortunately means they don’t get to serve as fodder for the real teams. You realize that if (or when) the Melo/Amar’e core doesn’t work, the Knicks can reset everything in 3 years right? Denver is stuck with a bunch of limited players for the next several years, and they’re still working on signing guys like Lawson. Hell after these 3 years the Knicks can dump Amar’e and build around Melo and Chandler, who are a solid 2 part core, and just resign players with the gobs of cap space that open up after that year. They could even resign Lin then lol!

    147. bobneptune

      ephus: There were trades after the first season that would work — like Chandler/Lin for Iguodola/Turner.Once you get to the second off-season, it is really hard to trade $15 million in salary for nothing coming back.You would need to find a team that had $15 million in non-guaranteed salary or was below the salary cap by enough to bring in a max contract.

      Funny how donnie walsh was mysteriously able to find a parking place in Mn for fat eddy curry’s 11.3 million expiring for the cheap cost of anthony randolph.

    148. Juany8

      Z-man: I lived in Houston for a year. Couldn’t wait to get back, the most boring and ugly big city ever, in one of the least progressive states in the country. Not to mention giant flying roaches and fire ants.

      Lol I could insult the shit out of New York too, Houston has it’s problems but is this kind of talk really neccessary? I’m perfectly happy to live in Houston and your opinion doesn’t change that, but insulting each other’s hometowns isn’t a very productive discussion

    149. bobneptune

      Juany8:Hell after these 3 years the Knicks can dump Amar’e and build around Melo and Chandler, who are a solid 2 part core, and just resign players with the gobs of cap space that open up after that year. They could even resign Lin then lol!

      So this is the new battle cry… we have no point guard for the next 3 years, but wait til 2015-16 when we can sign chandler and melo going into their 14th and 12 seasons to long max dollar contracts.

      will chandler have learned a shot other than a dunk by then?

    150. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: You’re right. I’d much rather see two max contract “superstars” get bounced in the first round instead. They’re much easier to root for, those superstars.

      Denver is a really interesting case study — I think most people sort of agree now that the best contracts are underpriced max deals for guys who SHOULD make way more than that (ie. LBJ, CP3, DH12, etc.). Then the next best contracts are rookie deals. The worst deals are the 7-12MM deals — and the Denver team is chock full of them.

      (I guess it could be argued that max deals for non-max players are really the worst).

    151. ruruland

      thenamestsam: I’m very curious to hear you expand on this. One week ago you were trumpeting how well Lin was going to fit into this offense. I’m not sure there are two PGs in the league who play more different styles than Lin and Kidd. But now Kidd is also going to fit very well? That doesn’t make much sense to me.

      The way I see it our big problem in the playoffs was that the only guys on the whole team who could reliably get their own shot were Melo and JR. Amare and Tyson were both limited in effectiveness by bad PG play (also a lack of health to be fair). That forced both Melo and JR to do way way too much and let to a lot of clunking by both of them.

      Good questions.

      What I looked at with my Lin analysis was the change in percentage of assisted baskets with Melo (which is reflective of whole team)….

      What I found through my Synergy analysis was that Melo’s assisted basket attempts (pick and roll/roller, spot-up,cut,transition, offf-screen) all went up dramatically when Lin played… In fact, his unassisted attempt percentage without Lin was higher than any other non-pg I could find, including Kobe.

      Unassisted attempts are always less efficient than assisted attempts. When you actually break down Melo’s game the last 3 years (at least), he’s an excellent iso and post-up player (especially when you consider the attention he recieves) and above average to great in assisted basket attempts — he’s an elite cutter, consistently top 50-100 in transition, a very good roller, and an above average to excellent spot-up player.

      The problem was that since Andre Miller, really, the ratio of assisted attempts was very low, pulling Melo’s efficiency down.

      In fact, Melo’s scoring percentage on most plays was quite similiar to Lebron, but the distribution was different– obviously some of that is Lebron’s transition speed– but Melo can run the…

    152. boredNsleepy

      bobneptune: So this is the new battle cry… we have no point guard for the next 3 years, but wait til 2015-16 when we can sign chandler and melo going into their 14th and 12 seasons to long max dollar contracts.

      will chandler have learned a shot other than a dunk by then?

      Maybe free throw, lol

    153. Frank

      bobneptune: Funny how donnie walsh was mysteriously able to find a parking place in Mn for fat eddy curry’s 11.3 million expiring for the cheap cost of anthony randolph.

      Funny how you forgot we took back about $30MM in salary in that trade in Melo/Billups, and traded away our entire team in the process. Not exactly a simple Fat Eddy and Randolph trade.

    154. ephus

      Here is my bottom line on losing Lin. I wish that the Knicks had kept him, because I think he might have developed into the PG that could bring the Knicks a title. I believed that the Knicks would match for Lin because (1) Woodson said he was going to be the starter, (2) MSG sources said they would match “up to a billion” and (3) Dolan had ignored the effects of all previous luxury taxes. I bought into the belief that building a winner in NY was so potentially lucrative that MSG brass would pay any price to marginally increase the likelihood of a title.

      It’s possible that the progressive luxury tax constructed by the NBA finally has curbed Dolan’s willingness to spend any amount for a title.

      It’s possible that Dolan just flipped out when he learned that Lin’s final contract would cost him $25 million more than he had expected.

      It’s even possible that the ‘Bockers never intended to bring back Lin once they knew they had Kidd and Felton.

      But it’s definite that the aftermath of the Knicks winning the Early Bird arbitration has been nothing like what was expected.

    155. Z-man

      Juany8: Lol I could insult the shit out of New York too, Houston has it’s problems but is this kind of talk really neccessary? I’m perfectly happy to live in Houston and your opinion doesn’t change that, but insulting each other’s hometowns isn’t a very productive discussion

      Sorry Juany, got a bit carried away. FWIW, I had a better time in Houston than I’m letting on :)

    156. ruruland

      So, tns, what I said about Lin being the key was twofold:

      One, Lin’s penetration against a team like Miami improves the offense’s versatility by orders of magnitude. His pick and roll opened up Amar’e game, and in myriad other ways would increase the efficiency of his teammates, both by making the offense less predictable, and by creating easy shots off his talent…
      Like in football, a good passing game opens up the running game.

      When you combined Lin’s ability to score, I felt that and still feel that he was the over-the-top piece, meaning that any given year, he, along with Melo, Chandler and Amar’e could win a series against any of the elite teams so long as the supporting cast was solid.

      Now I think the Knicks will have to get really lucky next year, as I think we’ll have a decline starting two seasons from now, as the team transitions to building around just Melo and Chandler in their early 30s.
      —————————————————————————–
      However, Kidd and Felton will likely form a much improved point guard combo compared to the Knicks pgs from last year.

      Felton, contrary to the charlatans, is a fine penetrator and pnr player when fit — he is also an uptempo guard….. So long as there is penetration ability in the game, Kidd is an excellent complement to any offense, especially one as talented as the Knicks still is….. Kidd is simply one of the smartest basketball players in the world, and his passing and anticipation are still top notch.

    157. ephus

      Under the new CBA, there will be fewer teams who have big available cap space to take in an expiring contract without sending big salary back.

      Curry went to Minnesota under the old CBA, when minimum team payroll was 75% of the cap. Under the new CBA, minimum team payroll is already 85% of the cap and will move up to 90% in 2014-15. There simply will be less slack in the system.

    158. Juany8

      Z-man: Sorry Juany, got a bit carried away. FWIW, I had a better time in Houston than I’m letting on :)

      Haha to be honest you were pretty spot on with your criticisms of Houston, still love living here though. Sure most people can say that about their hometown

    159. Juany8

      ruruland: BR>—————————————————————————–However, Kidd and Felton will likely form a much improved point guard combo compared to the Knicks pgs from last year. Felton, contrary to the charlatans, is a fine penetrator and pnr player when fit — he is also an uptempo guard….. So long as there is penetration ability in the game, Kidd is an excellent complement to any offense, especially one as talented as the Knicks still is….. Kidd is simply one of the smartest basketball players in the world, and his passing and anticipation are still top notch.

      Last year the team went something like 14-5 without Lin at the end of the year, meaning Bibby and Davis were getting major burn. Letting Lin go was a dumb basketball move, but last year’s team had a scoring margin of a team expected to win around 50 games in a normal season. Considering how awful the Knicks’ luck was last year, I think it’s entirely possible they win 55+, although I’m guessing the end result is something around 51 (health permitting of course). Kidd and Camby are perfect bench role players for what the Knicks need (rim protection when Chandler sits and someone who can run a fastbreak and hit a 3 when Melo sits) Prignioni and Kurt are nice injury insurance pieces as well. Either way, I don’t think is that big an upgrade over Felton against Miami, Lin really wasn’t going to make the difference for this team if Amar’e refuses to play good defense anyways (biggest key to the whole season and this team’s chances of contention IMO)

    160. MeloDrama

      Frank: Denver is a really interesting case study — I think most people sort of agree now that the best contracts are underpriced max deals for guys who SHOULD make way more than that (ie. LBJ, CP3, DH12, etc.).Then the next best contracts are rookie deals.The worst deals are the 7-12MM deals — and the Denver team is chock full of them.

      (I guess it could be argued that max deals for non-max players are really the worst).

      It’s interesting from a few aspects … 1. Teams are really shying away from paying those kinds of deals … which tends to make those midlevel guys often relatively underpaid. A guy like Gallinari, when healthy, earned his 10 mil or so IMO a year ago. Sometimes you can zig where others zag … I suspect a few years ago, a massive bidding war would have come for a guy with his ability and potential.

      2. Denver is getting young guys in their prime locked up on these deals. Little danger of them flaming out completely at this age, and even if they do the contract lengths aren’t prohibitive. McGee is probably the scariest deal they’ve handed out, but he also could way overperform his deal since fulfulling his potential fills the scarcest thing in basketball, a strong center.

      3. The best deal *is* an underpaid max, but there aren’t many, and most gather to play in a more desirable city than Denver. Market value deals for young guys who have produced already is the next best step for a team if they want to reach the postseason; if you get a max guy, it’ll more than likely be via trade anyway, and they’d have the assets both salary and production wise to put a great deal out there.

    161. MeloDrama

      bobneptune: So this is the new battle cry… we have no point guard for the next 3 years, but wait til 2015-16 when we can sign chandler and melo going into their 14th and 12 seasons to long max dollar contracts.

      will chandler have learned a shot other than a dunk by then?

      I’ll be honest; I thought Felton would be a value signing for someone before all of this, and I still think he’ll do a solid enough job at point. It was idiotic to let Lin go, that said, because a guy like that was really NY’s best and perhaps chance to add an impact player to the core, and they’ve destroyed their upside. But they’ll win some games with Felton. Sadly, there will probably never be enough of them to erase the sting.

    162. Frank

      Damn. Celtics getting Courtney Lee for JaJuan Johnson. How do we never end up on the winning side of trades like these?

    163. Frank

      Although one could argue getting Felton and Thomas for Jared Jeffries and Gadzuric counts. As does Camby for the Toney Douglas pupu platter.

    164. Juany8

      MeloDrama: I’ll be honest; I thought Felton would be a value signing for someone before all of this, and I still think he’ll do a solid enough job at point. It was idiotic to let Lin go, that said, because a guy like that was really NY’s best and perhaps chance to add an impact player to the core, and they’ve destroyed their upside. But they’ll win some games with Felton. Sadly, there will probably never be enough of them to erase the sting.

      Felton as the backup, with Kidd and JR splitting the SG minutes, would have been a legit guard lineup, especially once Shump got back. Really, no matter how you feel about Lin there was no basketball reason to let him go, not having him on the roster decreases the team’s flexibility, it doesn’t enhance it in any way. I sstill say there was an underrated chance of the Knicks getting Chris Paul if they kept Lin. Assuming he was about as good as he was under Woodson, Shumpert, Lin, and Novak would have been a pretty nice start for a package for Chris Paul, especially if he says he wants to be in NY. Now the only way for the team to seriously improve is to have another Lin/Novak situation, which is not totally impossible. Dragic was considered totally worthless his first year in Phoenix, and Kyle Lowry was considered a throw in to the Rafer Alston trade a few years back. Isiah Thomas (on the Kings) was a second round pick last year. It really isn’t that hard to find a point guard who can give an average performance on the cheap

    165. Frank

      Well, one concern about the upcoming season laid to rest, at least for now —

      @NBAGuru: Raymond Felton in the house at Cox. Any concerns about his weight can be put to rest. Dude looks quite svelte.

    166. Thomas B.

      bobneptune: I need someone who is in favor of not matching Lin to answer a single question for me:

      For the next 2 seasons (an optimistic shelf life for chandler-amar’e – melo) are the knicks significantly better with or without Lin?

      I think that answer is obvious.

      I’d say its a push. The only plus is team chemistry probably better without a shoot first point.

    167. thenamestsam

      Frank:
      Damn. Celtics getting Courtney Lee for JaJuan Johnson. How do we never end up on the winning side of trades like these?

      Yeah very jealous of that. That’s a really nice acquisition. I think we may have played all our cards a little early in terms of chasing these old guys. There are going to be some nice deals out there to be had.

    168. Juany8

      thenamestsam: Yeah very jealous of that. That’s a really nice acquisition. I think we may have played all our cards a little early in terms of chasing these old guys. There are going to be some nice deals out there to be had.

      Worst part is Rockets probably would have accepted the package that got the Knicks Felton. Lin and Lee would have been much better than Felton alone lol

    169. Frank

      More about Ray. I think he knows that he has a very limited window to win the fans back:

      @ChrisBHaynes: Former #Blazers G Raymond Felton in Vegas. Weight is really down. Wouldn’t reveal how much he’s lost but says he’s on a mission. Looks good.

    170. PrecociousNeophyte

      @StevePopper: Landry Fields on MSG with the best line of the Lin departure – “Poison pill? That’s a tic tac for James Dolan.” #knicks

    171. JK47

      Watching this blog rationalize the PG reins being turned over to Ray Felton, he of the sub-.500 career TS% and .067 career WS/48, is one of the sadder things I’ve witnessed here.

    172. ephus

      Knicks still have two cards left to play: Baron Davis and Mike Bibby. They each can be resigned to three year deals (first year only guaranteed) using Non-Bird rights to be used in a sign and trade. The target would be someone getting under $3.7 million who has two or more guaranteed years left.

    173. EB

      Does anyone have an opinion on Novak playing the 2? I’d like to see Camby take all the backup bigs minutes which means we need to get Novak time at another position.

    174. ephus

      EB: Does anyone have an opinion on Novak playing the 2? I’d like to see Camby take all the backup bigs minutes which means we need to get Novak time at another position.

      That would be the ultimate in matador defense. Novak cannot move his feet nearly well enough to handle the position.

    175. ess-dog

      Frank:
      Damn. Celtics getting Courtney Lee for JaJuan Johnson. How do we never end up on the winning side of trades like these?

      That gives the Rockets 47 power forwards, I believe. Interesting strategy.

    176. thenamestsam

      Juany8: Worst part is Rockets probably would have accepted the package that got the Knicks Felton. Lin and Lee would have been much better than Felton alone lol

      Almost the bigger question is what in the world Morey is doing. There have to be trades coming for that team, right? They seem to be on a mission to acquire a team exclusively composed of front court players.

    177. ruruland

      JK47:
      Watching this blog rationalize the PG reins being turned over to Ray Felton, he of the sub-.500 career TS% and .067 career WS/48, is one of the sadder things I’ve witnessed here.

      Predict his numbers

    178. thenamestsam

      EB:
      Does anyonehave an opinion on Novak playing the 2? I’d like to see Camby take all the backup bigs minutes which means we need to get Novak time at another position.

      Can’t possibly guard there. Dude tries hard on defense but there’s not a 2 in the league that he could even halfway stay in front of or follow through picks. He doesn’t have the quickness.

      The rotation is going to be very crowded when everyone is healthy, but as with any NBA season that won’t be a common occurrence. I figure Novak gets Melo’s backup minutes to start with and then could also play with Melo in very offensive lineups if both Chandler and Camby sit.

    179. Dan Panorama

      I’m hoping Felton can keep his head down, get Amare going a little, hit some open 3s when Carmelo gets doubled, but honestly my hopes are pretty low. Wasn’t the whole point of Felton’s one great run (which was fading by the time he was traded) that it was in D’antoni’s speedball system? Aren’t we heading towards iso-Melo next season? Not saying he can’t adapt, just that I don’t really feel like we have a blueprint yet for what to expect.

      And, of course, it’s going to take me a long time not to have involuntary spasms of rage whenever I see Felton take the court just thinking about Dolan giving up Lin.

      Regarding rooting for Lin by the way — I don’t see how you can’t root for the guy if you were mad the Knicks gave him up. He’s the same awesome, humble, dude that made us flip out in the first place during Linsanity and nothing that’s happened has made me think even slightly otherwise. I’ll be watching Houston closely and I hope he breaks out there — it may be a better opportunity for him, miserably depressed as I am to see him go.

      Also, those hoping he sputters out realize you’re just vindicating James Dolan for the single most despised decision he’s made since the Isiah era right? Dolan will never change (certainly this week is ample demonstration), but the best you can say is that when he monumentally effs up he at least can be shamed into briefly turning over the reins to someone like Donnie Walsh for an offseason or two. Lin making a few All Star games is exactly the kind of humiliation he needs on a karmic and pragmatic level alike.

    180. SangaD

      hes on the team ! this is starting to look sweet guys. we lost the game but copeland plays like his parents are in the crowd.

    181. arthurprescott2

      ruruland:
      Lin is treated so unfairly: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8180308/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-family

      You think so? It does make sense in a Melo-sort of way. It’s unfortunate that Melo felt this way. But I don’t think I’d go so far as treated unfairly. If Melo/Grunwald/Woodson/CAA were really into this “family” thing and it was Melo’s family, I can understand him digging his heels in on this. Woodson never seemed that sold on Lin anyway.

    182. arthurprescott2

      arthurprescott2: You think so? It does make sense in a Melo-sort of way. It’s unfortunate that Melo felt this way. But I don’t think I’d go so far as treated unfairly. If Melo/Grunwald/Woodson/CAA were really into this “family” thing and it was Melo’s family, I can understand him digging his heels in on this. Woodson never seemed that sold on Lin anyway.

      That said, the misinformation campaign was atrocious.

    183. d-mar

      Regarding Dolan, I dislike the guy as much as anyone on this board, he comes across as an ignorant buffoon, can barely put two words together in a press conference and if not for his dad, would be unemployed. But does anyone have any solid evidence that the Lin decision was all his? Or for that matter the widely accepted notion that he overruled his GM in the pursuit of Carmelo?

      I’m not saying he did or he didn’t, but if someone has real proof in either case, please share it. Thanks.

    184. Z

      Has Grunwald or Dolan or anyone in the Knick FO spoken publicly to try to explain this decision? shouldn’t they at least try to explain them to a disillusioned fan base? If it was a business decision, shouldn’t they try to explain that to the population of soon to be Nets fans in this city? If their scouts truly believe Lin is worse than Elton, shouldn’t they at least come out and sell it?

    185. 2FOR18

      Z-man:
      Looks like the Bulls are not going to match for Asik. Wait, Dolan owns the Bulls as well?

      Why do people keep saying “35 games” for Lin? He played 9 games of garbage time minutes before D’Antoni put him in vs. Rockets. So his Knicks career as something other than the 11th-12th man off the bench was 26 games. His record in those games: 16-10. His record after the first 7 games: 9-10. Including 7 games in the Woodson era where he shot poorly and less than 5.5 assists per game. He shot a consistent whopping .325 from 3 for all 26 games.

      He got absolutely abused by Rondo, Deron, and Chalmers. Then his knee gave out. Good news is, he has a very healthy and fresh left hand, because it was hardly used by season’s end.

      But of course, just ignore all that. Lin is clearly better than Felton based on those first 10 games. He is sure thing, a guaranteed future all star, maybe a hall of famer.He’s only a left hand, a consistent perimeter shot and a healthy knee away from being the next Steve Nash. Who, by the way, never made more than $13,125,000 salary in a season.

      I can’t wait to see Westbroook, Nash, Parker and Lawson put an end to Linsanity permanently, and Houston struggle to win 30 games with Lin and Asik as their core players who will cost them $30 million in 2014-15. And when that happens, Dolan and Grunwald will look like geniuses for not matching that ridiculous contract but nobody will give them any credit.

      Mark my words, we will miss Landry Fields more than Jeremy Lin.

      See my strawman posts on the other thread. I think you hit all of them. This really pisses me off.

    186. ruruland

      arthurprescott2: You think so? It does make sense in a Melo-sort of way. It’s unfortunate that Melo felt this way. But I don’t think I’d go so far as treated unfairly. If Melo/Grunwald/Woodson/CAA were really into this “family” thing and it was Melo’s family, I can understand him digging his heels in on this. Woodson never seemed that sold on Lin anyway.

      What evidence do we have that Melo feels this way? Where is the attribution, where are the primary or even secondary sources? All of this is speculation from Henry Abbot’s neanderthal brain. If he wasn’t talking about public figures, this would be libel, and I think you might even be able to prove malicious intent.

      This is an opionon piece masquerading as expose journalism. It’s a disgrace.

    187. ruruland

      arthurprescott2: You think so? It does make sense in a Melo-sort of way. It’s unfortunate that Melo felt this way. But I don’t think I’d go so far as treated unfairly. If Melo/Grunwald/Woodson/CAA were really into this “family” thing and it was Melo’s family, I can understand him digging his heels in on this. Woodson never seemed that sold on Lin anyway.

      All of this specualtion is pinned to Melo’s “ridiculous” comment which is being taken completely out of context.

    188. Dan Panorama

      The buck stops with Dolan, so it’s totally fair to chalk this up to him. The entire conversation on the anti-Lin side regarding his offer sheet was about whether the luxury tax hit was worth it and that’s Dolan’s decision. There’s no basketball argument whatsoever, since the alternative is having one less 23-year old prospect, regardless of whether you think he’ll pan out in a big way or not.

    189. arthurprescott2

      ruruland: What evidence do we have that Melo feels this way? Where is the attribution, where are the primary or even secondary sources? All of this is speculation from Henry Abbot’s neanderthal brain. If he wasn’t talking about public figures, this would be libel, and I think you might even be able to prove malicious intent.

      This is an opionon piece masquerading as expose journalism. It’s a disgrace.

      No sources and no hard evidence for sure. But I wouldn’t hold it against Melo if he felt this way. It’s not a bad method to mold a team, in theory. If anything, it sort of makes me feel better about him. That he has a vision of what he wants to accomplish and takes active steps/voices his opinion.

    190. arthurprescott2

      ruruland: What misinformation campaign?

      Resentment for not playing at 85% – players were upset at the time. Lin should have signed w/ the Knicks initially instead of taking offers. etc. the kind of stuff Isola had been bandying about earlier in the week.

    191. 2FOR18

      Brian Cronin: Agreed. Once the offer was on the table, they were screwed as far as trading him. Which is why they should have shopped him before he got the offer. That is, if they seriously did not consider him their point guard of the future for whatever reason (which I doubt is what actually happened), then it made no sense not to shop him early on.

      Since Grunwald is not one to do something like that, logic dictates that he was prepared to match any offer. Until they didn’t.

      Or the _______ could have matched and then traded him in January. To get nothing for him is inexcusable.

    192. ruruland

      arthurprescott2: No sources and no hard evidence for sure. But I wouldn’t hold it against Melo if he felt this way. It’s not a bad method to mold a team, in theory. If anything, it sort of makes me feel better about him. That he has a vision of what he wants to accomplish and takes active steps/voices his opinion.

      Some of it is true. Most of it is made up.

    193. ruruland

      arthurprescott2: Resentment for not playing at 85% – players were upset at the time. Lin should have signed w/ the Knicks initially instead of taking offers. etc. the kind of stuff Isola had been bandying about earlier in the week.

      So, you’re claiming someone was feeding Isola misinformation in an effort to impugne Lin? Because Isola’s company and Dolan are on bad terms, to put it lightly.

    194. ruruland

      2FOR18: Or the _______ could have matched and then traded him in January.To get nothing for him is inexcusable.

      Absolutely. And the people at MSG who are rationalizing it from a basketball/business decision are nothing more than Dolan toadies.

      Everyone can see how stupid this was, and there’s absolutely no reason to believe that it was anyone but Dolan’s decision.

    195. ruruland

      JK47: USG: over 20
      TS%: below .500
      WS/48: around .070
      3PT%: around .315

      So, the fact that he put up much better numbers than those on 3 different teams from 2009-2011, only to see the numbers drop during the lockout year and coming in out of shape on a slow-paced team — all of that is meaningless right? Smarter just to take his career averages I’m sure.

    196. thenamestsam

      ruruland: Some of it is true. Most of it is made up.

      Okay, you say this like you have tremendous access to the inner thinking of Carmelo Anthony. I don’t mean this as a shot at you, but your claims about what Melo is thinking have exactly as much attribution and sourcing as the thing you’re blasting.

    197. BigBlueAL

      All this talk and speculation on why the decision was made to let Lin leave has grown real tiresome to me already.

      Cant wait for the Yankees to win the World Series which leads right into the NBA season starting where all this off the court, behind the scenes guess work speculation can stop and the focus goes solely on the basketball being played on the court.

    198. JK47

      ruruland: So, the fact that he put up much better numbers than those on 3 different teams from 2009-2011, only to see the numbers drop during the lockout year and coming in out of shape on a slow-paced team — all of that is meaningless right? Smarter just to take his career averages I’m sure.

      He’s had a TS% over .500 twice in his 7-year career. He’s been over .070 in WS% twice in his 7-year career. He’s shot better than .315 from 3PT% four times, so maybe I’m off on that one. His usage has been over 20 every single year of his career.

    199. Brian Cronin

      Knicks still have two cards left to play: Baron Davis and Mike Bibby. They each can be resigned to three year deals (first year only guaranteed) using Non-Bird rights to be used in a sign and trade. The target would be someone getting under $3.7 million who has two or more guaranteed years left.

      Interesting. Can you think of a team that would be so desperate to cut $1 million or so that they’d take Bibby for a year?

    200. d-mar

      Dan Panorama:
      The buck stops with Dolan, so it’s totally fair to chalk this up to him. The entire conversation on the anti-Lin side regarding his offer sheet was about whether the luxury tax hit was worth it and that’s Dolan’s decision. There’s no basketball argument whatsoever, since the alternative is having one less 23-year old prospect, regardless of whether you think he’ll pan out in a big way or not.

      But part of it is a basketball decision – is a player with 25 games of NBA experience worth $27 million? There are plenty of NBA scouts who believe Lin will be an above average PG, in which case the answer is a big no.

    201. MeloDrama

      Z-man:

      He is sure thing, a guaranteed future all star, maybe a hall of famer.He’s only a left hand, a consistent perimeter shot and a healthy knee away from being the next Steve Nash. Who, by the way, never made more than $13,125,000 salary in a season.

      I can’t wait to see Westbroook, Nash, Parker and Lawson put an end to Linsanity permanently, and Houston struggle to win 30 games with Lin and Asik as their core players who will cost them $30 million in 2014-15. And when that happens, Dolan and Grunwald will look like geniuses for not matching that ridiculous contract but nobody will give them any credit.

      Why does it matter that they’ll cost Houston 30 million that season if it only costs them 10 in each of the next two? On the salary cap, it counts as 8.3 across.

      Why are we assuming Lin’s knee didn’t begin giving him trouble during the “slump”?

      Why would we ever want a high draft pick, knowing in many cases the guy coming to us is going to have an even smaller sample size against lesser competition? When we’d have to pay them decent coin?

      Why does everyone throw up the strawman that Lin isn’t worth 15 mil, when the contract is for 8.3 mil a year? He’s worth more than 5 mil to a team just based on potential.

      Why do we assume Lin/Asik will be Houston’s core when Morey is known to make moves, many of which coming at the expense of Dolan?

      Why is every Lin supporter lumped into guaranteeing a hall of fame bid, when they’re just angry that a team that has no flexibility to add any potentially impactful players and just threw away what could be a golden ticket; for reasons of perhaps spite; but not likely for financial reasons three years from now, considering Dolan okayed lighting his tax dollars on fire by giving guarantees to two players in their 40s?

      Lin’s a risk; one NY was suited to take more than most. The potential…

    202. ruruland

      thenamestsam: Okay, you say this like you have tremendous access to the inner thinking of Carmelo Anthony. I don’t mean this as a shot at you, but your claims about what Melo is thinking have exactly as much attribution and sourcing as the thing you’re blasting.

      But I’m not pretending to be or presenting myself as a reporter. That’s the only difference that matters. I would recuse myself if I were asked to report this story, just as some reporters who get too close to their sources SHOULD. Unfortunately, it rarely works that way.

    203. thenamestsam

      ruruland: But I’m not pretending to be or presenting myself as a reporter. That’s the only difference that matters. I would recuse myself if I were asked to report this story, just as some reporters who get too close to their sources SHOULD. Unfortunately, it rarely works that way.

      I get that you’re not a reporter which is why I’m not blasting you. I agree that it’s a crap piece of journalism, and this is from someone who likes a lot of Abbot’s stuff. I’m just saying that it’s fair to say that he provides no evidence and thus should be completely ignored. But if you’re going to say that not only should be ignored but he’s actually incorrect and making it up I think the onus switches to you to provide evidence for that assertion.

    204. 2FOR18

      ephus: But the difference for the Knicks between the two contracts was about $25 million in 2014-15:five million in salary and around $20 million in tax.

      Also, the ancillary income is limited.As per Darren Rovell, except for merchandise sales at MSG or through nyknicks.com, the Knicks share all merchandising revenues equally with all 30 teams.The same is true for overseas merchandise and overseas broadcast rights.Lin might have drawn new Chinese sponsors, which would help the bottom line.

      Lin already made a huge contribution to MSG by forcing Time-Warner Cable to settle the carriage fees during the height of Linsanity.But that contract is not going to be up for renewal for many years.

      The other big box office splash that Lin would make is marketing appeal to Chinese New Yorkers.I think this would have been huge.The Knicks could have created deep bonds in the same way that the Yankees created deep bonds in the 1920s-40s with Italian immigrants with players like DiMaggio.

      Without Lin, the ______ wouldn’t have made the playoffs last year. Any idea the revenue (ticket sales, TV, merchandise) generated from the home playoff games last year?

    205. MeloDrama

      Z-man: Fatty played a better 25 games for the Knicks than Lin did.Fatty is a proven NBA starter. Fatty is 28 years old. Fatty is not coming off serious knee surgery. Fatty has a left hand. Fatty is making $3.3 million a year. Fatty’s contract for 3 years is $4 million less than Lin’s is for one year.

      In fact, Camby, Kidd, Felton, Novak, Prigioni and Thomas COMBINED will make less than Lin will in year 3.
      If you want t blame everybody except Lin for his declining performance after people learned who is was, go ahead. PS Lin was gonna have to play with Melo and under Woodson, no?

      1. No, he didn’t. Felton racked up more assists but where Lin killed him was his ability to get to the line. Given that Lin was also playing at his peak during a time where combinations like Chandler/Jeffries/Fields/Shump/Walker and Novak were his supporting cast, he was pretty much the defense’s prime target after game three and he still went to work. Felton did not play as well, and he had STAT/Gallo and Chandler around him.

      2. “Camby, Kidd, Felton, Novak, Prigioni and Thomas COMBINED will make less than Lin will in year 3.”

      That’s fantastic since Camby, Kidd, Prigioni and Thomas are all likely to be out of the NBA or useless filler by then.

    206. ephus

      Buried in Part 6 is some information that was new (or at least new to me).

      http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8179341/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-lin-camp

      Broussard claims that not only did the Knicks not make an offer (which has been previously reported), but that the “concept” that the Knicks discussed was less than a max offer for 3 years. Specifically, the Knicks apparently raised the prospect of a front loaded 3 year deal, so as to reduce the tax ramifications in 2014-15.

      If this is accurate, the Knicks really have nothing to complain about (not that I previously thought they did) with respect to Lin signing the biggest offer sheet he could get. Loyalty is a two way street. If the Knicks had made a max offer out of the box, they would have some basis to resent Lin and the Rockets going from the first offer sheet to the second offer sheet (and the article does not make clear which one initiated the second offer sheet). But the Knicks were playing hardball, and they had to expect Lin would do the same.

    207. 2FOR18

      Frank:
      Damn. Celtics getting Courtney Lee for JaJuan Johnson. How do we never end up on the winning side of trades like these?

      It’s kind of funny that Houston adds yet another PF.

    208. ephus

      2FOR18: Without Lin, the ______ wouldn’t have made the playoffs last year. Any idea the revenue (ticket sales, TV, merchandise) generated from the home playoff games last year?

      According to Rovell, the Knicks net $4 million for each home game. So, least season the Knicks netted $8 million from their playoff appearance.

    209. 2FOR18

      ruruland: What evidence do we have that Melo feels this way? Where is the attribution, where are the primary or even secondary sources? All of this is speculation from Henry Abbot’s neanderthal brain. If he wasn’t talking about public figures, this would be libel, and I think you might even be able to prove malicious intent.

      This is an opionon piece masquerading as expose journalism. It’s a disgrace.

      Another writer for you to stalk.

    210. Frank

      MeloDrama: Why does everyone throw up the strawman that Lin isn’t worth 15 mil, when the contract is for 8.3 mil a year? He’s worth more than 5 mil to a team just based on potential.

      It’s actually much worse than that. The contract averages 8.3M/year, but what the team actually has to pay out is completely different. I’ve posted several times now that the probable actual amount the Knicks would have to pay is about 3 years, $78MM. So even though the average CONTRACT amount is 8.3M/year, the actual out of pocket expense for the owner is >$25MM/year. The number on the contract only matters to Lin because that’s what goes in his pocket. The total $ outlay is what matters to the team and Dolan. So saying it’s 8.3M/year is the actual straw man.

      Talking about Melo/Chandler/STAT making a bazillion $ and that Dolan has paid millions before in luxury tax – those arguments are also a straw men. The FO has no control over those contracts anymore- those contracts have already been agreed upon and that ship has sailed. To throw more $ just because that’s what you did in the past – let’s just say that no competent financial planner would agree with that strategy. And re: Dolan’s history of paying luxury tax without blinking – the world and the economy is completely different now than it was during the Jerome James days. The CBA is fundamentally different in terms of how it handles rich teams. Prior to this CBA, a team could have a payroll of $100MM (with a tax line of $70MM) and pay out a total of $130MM. In this CBA, it would be closer to $182.5MM. Dolan may be rich, but no one sneezes at $50MM except maybe Prokhorov (who is worth 6-7x what all the Dolans collectively are worth).

      I’m not saying I agree with letting Lin go (I don’t), and I definitely think this could have been strategized better. But it IS a defensible decision.

    211. arthurprescott2

      er:
      http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1125174/2pgpw.jpg

      ray felt does not look half bad

      Did he just carry around a volleyball under his shirt before? He looks much better!

      2FOR18: It’s kind of funny that Houston adds yet another PF.

      Yea and Houston has White/Ross who are tearing up Summer League. I guess they have faith in Lamb. On its face, it looks like Morey made a terrible decision. He’s preparing to use White and/or Ross in trades from the looks of it, which is a shame. White’s a PF w/ creative passing skills/court vision – not that common in the league. Simmons seems to be right to be so high on the guy.

    212. 2FOR18

      ephus: According to Rovell, the Knicks net $4 million for each home game.So, least season the Knicks netted $8 million from their playoff appearance.

      thanks

    213. Brian Cronin

      I’ve posted several times now that the probable actual amount the Knicks would have to pay is about 3 years, $78MM.

      That applies to all the contracts signed this year, though, right? Felton is not 3 years/$10 million, he’s 3 years/$30 million. Kidd isn’t 3 years/$9 million, he’s 3 years/$27 million. Novak isn’t 4 years/$16 million, he’s 4 years/$39 million. Camby isn’t whatever his contract is, he’s whatever his contract is plus a bunch.

      Even with that being said, where are you getting $78 million from? I’m not saying your wrong, I just don’t know where the figure is coming from (and, again, note that the Knicks were never going to pay the full amount on that third year, whether it came from trading Lin or another player(s) or just waiving Lin – unless, of course, everyone was playing so well that Dolan felt it was worth paying).

    214. Robtachi

      Heartening fact: Jeremy Lin will be an unrestricted free agent in summer 2015, when he is 26 and entering his prime, the Knicks’ cap will be clean aside from Shumpert, and by then everyone in the NBA will know exactly what Lin is worth.

    215. 2FOR18

      arthurprescott2: Did he just carry around a volleyball under his shirt before? He looks much better!

      Yea and Houston has White/Ross who are tearing up Summer League. I guess they have faith in Lamb. On its face, it looks like Morey made a terrible decision. He’s preparing to use White and/or Ross in trades from the looks of it, which is a shame. White’s a PF w/ creative passing skills/court vision – not that common in the league. Simmons seems to be right to be so high on the guy.

      Terrence Ross is on Tor, or is there another Ross I’m forgetting about?

      So as of now it’s:
      Lin
      Kev Martin
      Parsons
      White
      Asik or Motiejunas

      ?

    216. ephus

      Robtachi:
      Heartening fact:Jeremy Lin will be an unrestricted free agent in summer 2015, when he is 26 and entering his prime, the Knicks’ cap will be clean aside from Shumpert, and by then everyone in the NBA will know exactly what Lin is worth.

      And after his treatment over the past week, why do you think Lin would choose to come back to the Knicks? Unless Dolan has sold the team, or he profusely and publicly apologizes, I don’t see it happening.

    217. arthurprescott2

      2FOR18: Terrence Ross is on Tor, or is there another Ross I’m forgetting about?

      So as of now it’s:
      Lin
      Kev Martin
      Parsons
      White
      Asik or Motiejunas

      ?

      Yea sorry as Brian said Jones – I keep mixing them up.

    218. JK47

      Robtachi:
      Heartening fact:Jeremy Lin will be an unrestricted free agent in summer 2015, when he is 26 and entering his prime, the Knicks’ cap will be clean aside from Shumpert, and by then everyone in the NBA will know exactly what Lin is worth.

      The Knicks will be saving that cap space for John Wall.

    219. arthurprescott2

      2FOR18: Terrence Ross is on Tor, or is there another Ross I’m forgetting about?

      So as of now it’s:
      Lin
      Kev Martin
      Parsons
      White
      Asik or Motiejunas

      ?

      As of right now:
      Lin/Machado/TD (!)
      Martin/Lamb
      Patterson/White/Jones
      Parsons/Mot/Jorts (!)
      Asik? (I guess they’re still hoping for Bynum or Howard, but it doesn’t look like its going to happen)

      Machado/White/Jones/Lamb/Mot are crushing it in Summer League (for what its worth). Fun team for sure. Getting Howard/Bynum would mean gutting young talent.

    220. Frank

      Brian Cronin:

      Even with that being said, where are you getting $78 million from? I’m not saying your wrong, I just don’t know where the figure is coming from (and, again, note that the Knicks were never going to pay the full amount on that third year, whether it came from trading Lin or another player(s) or just waiving Lin – unless, of course, everyone was playing so well that Dolan felt it was worth paying).

      2012-13– $5M salary, prob ~8M tax = 13M
      2013-14– $5M salary, prob ~10M tax = 15M
      2014-14–$15M salary, prob ~33M tax=48M

      13+15+48 = ~76MM total

      Slightly different tax guesses last time but the idea is WOW does,that last year hurt.

    221. Juany8

      Trust me guys, as a Rockets fan I love what the rookies are doing, but I would trade pretty much all of them for a chance of having an actual star on the team. Patterson is a perfect fit next to Dwight Howard anyways, I love Jones and White but you give up a pair of rookies for someone like Bynum or Dwight easily. Kyle Lowry was better than all of these guys anyways and the Rockets gave him up for a draft pick, and as a fan I love that they’re going all in on actually being good instead of getting the damn 14th pick again.

    222. BigBlueAL

      Curious about something, why are Lin’s rookie season stats completely ignored?? I know it was just 285 mins in 29 games but he had some pretty bad stats offensively. Defensively though his stats were very good.

    223. Juany8

      Frank: 2012-13– $5M salary, prob ~8M tax = 13M
      2013-14– $5M salary, prob ~10M tax = 15M
      2014-14–$15M salary, prob ~33M tax=48M

      13+15+48 = ~76MM total

      Slightly different tax guesses last time but the idea is WOW does,that last year hurt.

      Lin decision is certainly understandable from a financial point of view. It’s totally indefensible as a basketball move. If even the Lakers are wary of the tax, however, maybe we’re all being a little too greedy with Dolan’s money. Even if Felton can be 60% as effective as Lin was (and he was more than 60% as effective last time he was here) then signing Lin might actually be pretty irresponsible. But there is no way any fan that is not an MSG stockholder or related to the Dolan’s should defend this move. From a flexibility point of view, they HAD to sign Lin to have any hope of improving outside the team. But who knows, maybe Amar’e will start giving a crap about defense and completely change the dynamic of this team. Amar’e-Chandler would be the best defensive frontline in the league if a player built like Dwight Howard applied himself on that end…

    224. 2FOR18

      If you guys make a shirt with the pic of Lin in the hospital that Robert uses, I would buy it.

    225. MeloDrama

      Frank: It’s actually much worse than that.The contract averages 8.3M/year, but what the team actually has to pay out is completely different. I’ve posted several times now that the probable actual amount the Knicks would have to pay is about 3 years, $78MM.So even though the average CONTRACT amount is 8.3M/year, the actual out of pocket expense for the owner is >$25MM/year.The number on the contract only matters to Lin because that’s what goes in his pocket.The total $ outlay is what matters to the team and Dolan. So saying it’s 8.3M/year is the actual straw man.

      Talking about Melo/Chandler/STAT making a bazillion $ and that Dolan has paid millions before in luxury tax – those arguments are also a straw men.The FO has no control over those contracts anymore- those contracts have already been agreed upon and that ship has sailed.To throw more $ just because that’s what you did in the past – let’s just say that no competent financial planner would agree with that strategy.And re: Dolan’s history of paying luxury tax without blinking – the world and the economy is completely different now than it was during the Jerome James days.The CBA is fundamentally different in terms of how it handles rich teams.Prior to this CBA, a team could have a payroll of $100MM (with a tax line of $70MM) and pay out a total of $130MM.In this CBA, it would be closer to $182.5MM.Dolan may be rich, but no one sneezes at $50MM except maybe Prokhorov (who is worth 6-7x what all the Dolans collectively are worth).

      I’m not saying I agree with letting Lin go (I don’t), and I definitely think this could have been strategized better. But it IS a defensible decision.

      The third year was nine million before … how much of the tax money ramping up was due to the extra six mil added to that year?

      Basically, asking how much of the extra 50 mil or so was created due to the six mil…

    226. MeloDrama

      Frank: 2012-13– $5M salary, prob ~8M tax = 13M
      2013-14– $5M salary, prob ~10M tax = 15M
      2014-14–$15M salary, prob ~33M tax=48M

      13+15+48 = ~76MM total

      Slightly different tax guesses last time but the idea is WOW does,that last year hurt.

      I’m not sure exactly how this works, but would I be correct in assuming that Morey’s first offer would have led to a tax of something like …. 9 mil salary, 20 mil tax = 29 mil total in year 3?

      I ask this because while the sheer 3 year, 75 mil number IS a good argument for the Knicks’ side, if it turns out that they were willing to pay 3-57 but not 3-75, I’m not real sure I buy Dolan saying one is a good deal and the other isn’t doable. Most teams, yes, but not this one.

    227. ephus

      MeloDrama: The third year was nine million before … how much of the tax money ramping up was due to the extra six mil added to that year?

      Basically, asking how much of the extra 50 mil or so was created due to the six mil…

      The difference between the first offer and the final sheet was around $26 million — around $5.5 million in salary and around $20 million in additional tax.

    228. Z-man

      Juany8: Lin decision is certainly understandable from a financial point of view. It’s totally indefensible as a basketball move.

      The two can’t be separated. Fields is a great basketball move at $2.5 mill, and a terrible basketball move at $10 mill. Same with Lin.

      Juany8: Even if Felton can be 60% as effective as Lin was (and he was more than 60% as effective last time he was here) then signing Lin might actually be pretty irresponsible.

      Why is it so easy to assume that Lin will be better than Felton at all? Let’s see Lin go around the league a few times before reaching that conclusion. Felton is coming off his worst season during which he was way out of shape and uninspired playing for a team going nowhere. The two years before that were very respectable as he played for 3 different teams, shot well from 3, and had a higher eFG% than Lin did last year. He only just turned 28, and showed up at the summer league looking very fit, with 2 months still to train before preseason. You’re damn right it would have been irresponsible.

      Lin will have a big bulls eye on his back and the rest of the PGs in the league will take great pleasure in exposing him.

    229. ephus

      yellowboy90:
      So with Lee in the fold why would Pietrus go back?

      Ubuntu? More seriously, the Celtics can give 20% more than any other minimum team.

      Even if he leaves, there are many teams with cap space or the BAE left. I would love it if he came to NY, but I do not hold out much hope.

    230. Z-man

      BigBlueAL: Curious about something, why are Lin’s rookie season stats completely ignored?? I know it was just 285 mins in 29 games but he had some pretty bad stats offensively. Defensively though his stats were very good.

      Because they would conflict with the illusion. You have to ignore anything that suggests Lin will be anything but an all-star, which is easy to do when you’re spending other peoples money to the tune of tens of millions.

    231. ephus

      Z-man: BigBlueAL: Curious about something, why are Lin’s rookie season stats completely ignored?? I know it was just 285 mins in 29 games but he had some pretty bad stats offensively. Defensively though his stats were very good.

      Because they would conflict with the illusion. You have to ignore anything that suggests Lin will be anything but an all-star, which is easy to do when you’re spending other peoples money to the tune of tens of millions.

      Or maybe because the Warrior stats were almost entirely compiled during garbage time?

    232. BigBlueAL

      ephus: Or maybe because the Warrior stats were almost entirely compiled during garbage time?

      There were people here talking about how amazing Jerome Jordan is because of 108 garbage time minutes.

    233. Brian Cronin

      Because they would conflict with the illusion. You have to ignore anything that suggests Lin will be anything but an all-star, which is easy to do when you’re spending other peoples money to the tune of tens of millions.

      For the same reason you correctly complained about people giving him credit for the 35 games this season and not 25. What he did in the games he had real minutes is the important stuff. Heck, the one time he got over 20 minutes for Golden State he did very well (if you reduce it to 15 minutes, it was a mixed bag). By the way, boy did Golden State use him poorly. They tried him as a spot-up shooting guard in a bunch of games. It was idiotic.

    234. Brian Cronin

      2012-13– $5M salary, prob ~8M tax = 13M
      2013-14– $5M salary, prob ~10M tax = 15M
      2014-14–$15M salary, prob ~33M tax=48M

      13+15+48 = ~76MM total

      Slightly different tax guesses last time but the idea is WOW does,that last year hurt.

      Thanks for the tax figures, Frank!

      Lin decision is certainly understandable from a financial point of view. It’s totally indefensible as a basketball move. If even the Lakers are wary of the tax, however, maybe we’re all being a little too greedy with Dolan’s money. Even if Felton can be 60% as effective as Lin was (and he was more than 60% as effective last time he was here) then signing Lin might actually be pretty irresponsible. But there is no way any fan that is not an MSG stockholder or related to the Dolan’s should defend this move. From a flexibility point of view, they HAD to sign Lin to have any hope of improving outside the team. But who knows, maybe Amar’e will start giving a crap about defense and completely change the dynamic of this team. Amar’e-Chandler would be the best defensive frontline in the league if a player built like Dwight Howard applied himself on that end…

      Yeah, I’ve always said if you’re deciding this on just saving Dolan money, then sure, don’t sign Lin. If Grunwald had a price limit to work with, he did a good job getting a worse, cheaper player in Felton.

    235. Brian Cronin

      I love how ESPN’s article links always skip “don’t” and “not,” so I see the link and I’m like “What, he is saying blame Melo?” and the actual article is “don’t blame Melo.” Pretty funny.

    236. PrecociousNeophyte

      Personally, I have a hard time having any sympathy for Dolan’s wallet after what he has put Knicks fans though the past 10 years.

      At some level I feel we were owed Lin. I guess since he knows the Garden will be packed no matter what he has no reason to show any good will towards the fans.

    237. 2FOR18

      It is ultimately on Dolan, but if melo, either directly or through CAA, went to Dolan and told him they needed to keep Lin, then Dolan would have done it.

      We Are Family.

    238. StatsTeacher

      I am still hanging around a bit, once you’ve had a hit of Knick meth hard to leave. Rockets trying hard to get Bynum, very interesting!

      the answer BBA is VERY simple, Lin had to try and run PnR with Biedrins. I watched all his garbage minutes, and I felt he was better, far more assertive than Curry, and would have traded Curry for a better big and kept Lin if I was making decisions at GS, which of course, I am not.

      ephus: Or maybe because the Warrior stats were almost entirely compiled during garbage time?

    239. Z-man

      Brian Cronin: For the same reason you correctly complained about people giving him credit for the 35 games this season and not 25. What he did in the games he had real minutes is the important stuff. Heck, the one time he got over 20 minutes for Golden State he did very well (if you reduce it to 15 minutes, it was a mixed bag). By the way, boy did Golden State use him poorly. They tried him as a spot-up shooting guard in a bunch of games. It was idiotic.

      I basically agree, Brian, but the way that 10-15 really good/great games during a lockout year when teams had no time to practice or scout opponents (the rest were either so-so or mediocre) are being used to make the case that Houston just pulled off the heist of the century is equally ludicrous. Or that Lin is a better investment than Felton, for that matter. I will not be surprised in the least if Houston deeply regrets letting Conley and Dragic go and signing Lin.

    240. 2FOR18

      Z-man: I basically agree, Brian, but the way that 10-15 really good/great games during a lockout year when teams had no time to practice or scout opponents (the rest were either so-so or mediocre) are being used to make the case that Houston just pulled off the heist of the century is equally ludicrous. Or that Lin is a better investment than Felton, for that matter. I will not be surprised in the least if Houston deeply regrets letting Conley and Dragic go and signing Lin.

      You really harp on the scouting and lockout things to support your argument that Lin is a flash in the pan. Well, I could say that the lack of “PRACTICE??!!” and “reps” makes what Lin did even more special.
      How many times have people excused the ________ problems last season by blaming the lack of practice time and injuries? Yet Lin comes in off the street, playing with mostly no name back-ups he’s probably never heard of, and tears up the league.
      So isn’t it more likely that a full training camp of PRACTICE??!! would result in Lin improving than in him regressing?

    241. airys

      He means that D-Will and John Wall need “practice” and “scouting” to be capable to defend Lin. What a praise!

    242. Z-man

      That’s all Lin did was practice. By the time he came in, half the Knicks were hurt from overuse and he was fresh as a daisy and caught some teams by surprise. Remember Kobe not even knowing who Lin was? Not to mention that the Lakers were on the tail end of an east coast trip and had beaten the Celts in an OT thriller in Boston the night before? Well, as Kobe said, he will receive judgment this year, and now he’ll get a double dose of the Lakers.

    243. StatsTeacher

      I don’t understand why this site is so much Lin-bashing now. Let’s hope Houston does really well (that’s what I’ll be doing) AND the Knicks too — I’ll even say Amare looked great today in the interview and Felton didn’t look fat at all. Carmelo also tore up the D-League across the Atlantic and looked good doing it. Lin will put up great numbers in Houston, McHale all but guaranteed that he would play all the time and it will be up-tempo. Problem is they are re-building and most likely won’t win much in that hellish division.

      Z-man:
      That’s all Lin did was practice. By the time he came in, half the Knicks were hurt from overuse and he was fresh as a daisy and caught some teams by surprise. Remember Kobe not even knowing who Lin was? Not to mention that the Lakers were on the tail end of an east coast trip and had beaten the Celts in an OT thriller in Boston the night before? Well, as Kobe said, he will receive judgment this year, and now he’ll get a double dose of the Lakers.

    244. Z-man

      airys: He means that D-Will and John Wall need “practice” and “scouting” to be capable to defend Lin. What a praise!

      D-Will absolutely destroyed Lin the second time around. Old Man Jason Kidd outplayed Lin the second time around. John Wall? He stinks so far, and I’d still sign him over Lin. Rondo almost had a double-triple-double against Lin (18-17-20).

      How much did practice time and game experience help Landry Fields? Yet even as Fields stunk up the court game after game, people would defend him and blame the system, blame Melo, bleme everyone but Fields. Lin’s fall from grace will be steeper and harder than Fields because he has fundamental problems///can’t go left (you don’t learn that skill as a 23 year old, either you have it or you dont and he doesn’t) and a very mediocre perimeter game (career 31%, following a 4-year career 33% in college). He is a poor perimeter defender and averaged nearly 5 turnovers a game as a Knick. And he has damage to his knee cartilage that hasn’t been

    245. Z-man

      …game tested yet, since he did not come back for the playoffs and opted out of the Olympic select team.

    246. Z-man

      StatsTeacher: I don’t understand why this site is so much Lin-bashing now. Let’s hope Houston does really well (that’s what I’ll be doing) AND the Knicks too — I’ll even say Amare looked great today in the interview and Felton didn’t look fat at all. Carmelo also tore up the D-League across the Atlantic and looked good doing it. Lin will put up great numbers in Houston, McHale all but guaranteed that he would play all the time and it will be up-tempo. Problem is they are re-building and most likely won’t win much in that hellish division.

      It’s not about bashing Lin, it’s about the way that the decision not to match the ridiculous contract has been portrayed as a bad basketball (and financial) decision, or that Lin has proven that he is destined to be a top-10 PG. I hope, and strongly believe, that the Knicks did absolutely the right thing in going with Felton over Lin, so why would I root for Lin to do well? I hope I can look back and say, “whew, I’m sure glad we didn’t invest $25 million in that guy!” Others here seem to want Lin to be great and Felton to suck just to prove that Dolan and Melo are indeed the root of all evil, do you have a problem with them as well?

      Ultimately, I root for the Knicks and generally root against all other teams, selectively, of course. I hate the Celts and Heat far more than OKC, for example, so when they play, I root for OKC. When the Rockets play the Celts, I will root for the Rockets, but won’t be too upset if Lin gets smoked by Rondo again!

    247. StatsTeacher

      Well I have only been a Knick fan for a short while, but all the evidence I have seen to date, Dolan is the dumbest owner I have ever seen. He is making Sterling look like a genius. I don’t care for Melo too much based on his comments, but think he is a very talented player. I really wanted to see the Knicks all brought back to see if they could do it. My home team, GS did the EXACT same thing after the We Believe run (led by Baron) and I lost a TON of respect for that front office, and that is where I am with the Knicks. Lastly, you are referring to Dolan’s money as yours, are you actually Dolan or something?

    248. exel

      Z-man:
      He got absolutely abused by Rondo, Deron, and Chalmers.

      So Z-Man, you have stated this several times. I agree that Chalmers shutdown Lin, but how did Rondo and Deron abuse Lin? Did you watch the games or are you going by box score stats and assuming that Lin guarded both of them the whole time? Just curious.

    249. Brian Cronin

      I basically agree, Brian, but the way that 10-15 really good/great games during a lockout year when teams had no time to practice or scout opponents (the rest were either so-so or mediocre) are being used to make the case that Houston just pulled off the heist of the century is equally ludicrous. Or that Lin is a better investment than Felton, for that matter. I will not be surprised in the least if Houston deeply regrets letting Conley and Dragic go and signing Lin.

      And I am saying that you are cherry-picking. Note that no one is arguing for his best games as for what we’ll get for Lin. You, meanwhile, are arguing that he will only get worse from his lesser games – his lesser games, which weren’t even bad.

      What in the world – seriously, what at all, did you see in the 8 games under Woodson that looked like that Knick team success was not sustainable? Remember, they were 7-1 and dominating with Melo not even scoring the ball well (while still leading the team in shots per game).

      And scouting – he played well against Indiana and then they played the next night and he had an even better game.

      If all the Knicks got from Lin was what he gave to them during the 7-1 stretch, they’d be golden. And obviously there were plenty of ways for him to easily improve. One of the biggest problems I had with Lin was his lack of chemistry with Amar’e, as Lin continued to spotlight CHandler even after Amare’s return, with Davis having to be the guy to work with Amar’e. That, luckily, is one of the easiest areas in the world to fix. Just make Lin work with Amar’e in training camp. And that’s not even getting into the fact that he was 23 playing his first full season. He was, in effect, a rookie. There is no team in the world that would get production from their rookie point guard like the Knicks got from Lin and say, “Nah, he’ll likely get worse going forward.” Heck, we hear the exact opposite (“Yeah, John Wall was bad, but he was a rookie point guard. He’ll improve.”).

      In addition, unlike Fields, who never adjusted to playing in a non-SSOL offense (especially with a coach who clearly was not a fan), Lin adjusted fine. It probably wasn’t the best news for his own career, as he was likely going to put up worse numbers being #3 in the pecking order than he would be on a team where he’d be #1, but he was fine and, best of all, the team was fine. As we saw, Lin gave them someone other than Melo that they could reliably turn to when they needed someone to score.

      There was a game against Indiana late in the season that was practically a complete replay of a game they had against Indiana when Lin was playing. In both games, Melo hit a cold stretch. The Pacers made big comebacks in both games. In one game, Lin was able to take over and score 8-9 straight points and the Knicks won. In the other game, the Knicks lost horribly.

      Lin fit the team well. And he was under Knick control. And they have no way of replacing him.

      From an “on the court” standpoint, this was a no-brainer.

      From Dolan’s pocketbook standpoint, I guess it was too much. I can live with that. But I will never accept that this wasn’t a no-brainer to keep him based on their roster and what he showed them. Since it was.

    250. jon abbey

      BigBlueAL: There were people here talking about how amazing Jerome Jordan is because of 108 garbage time minutes.

      yes, it’s worth noting that Houston had no interest in keeping him on their gutted roster, and no one else seems to even have had interest in picking him up for their summer team (maybe too late, though).

    251. Kurt

      Ephus in 230:
      Thank you for pointing out the fact that the Knicks were lowballing Lin. I think if you put together the Sports Illustrated interview with Lin and the Abbot articles you see a few things that, altogether, led to this turn of events:

      1. Knicks, other than Woodson, barely spoke to Lin. Compare this to other teams that heavily recruited him. The Knicks clearly made him feel taken for granted, which leaves a bad taste in his mouth.

      2. It seems like if the Knicks had offered him their max, he would probably have taken and signed without testing the market. The Knicks lowballing him also contributed to him feeling taken for granted, as opposed to Houston, who really wanted him.

      3. Lin or his agent never went back to the Rockets themselves. It was Morey who contacted Lin to up the offer. Considering that, again, the Knicks were trying to lowball him, why should he pass up that offer sheet when he doesn’t think he’d get offered as much from the Knicks?

      4. Dolan thinks that a player who made very little money looking for his first guaranteed contract should be loyal to HIM. He and his minions portrayed Lin as “selfish” just because he was trying to get his proper value rather than caving in to him.

      5. This is combined with the fact that Dolan still listens to Isaiah, who apparently wasn’t big on Lin.

      6. Dolan gets pissed because he thinks Lin is “disloyal,” even though it’s him and the front office’s screw ups that led to the situation of Houston’s offer sheet. Again, it’s Lin who Dolan thinks is disloyal even though Lin barely heard anything from the Knicks organization. Again, what is he supposed to do? Turn the offer down?

      Combine all these factors and we see a completely dysfunctional organization. Grunwald seems somewhat at fault for not communicating with Lin/taking him for granted. But we clearly see the role of Dolan in all this.

      Hollinger quotes Stern as emphasizing the role of the owner in a winning team. This whole episode completely demonstrates it.

      Forgot to mention before Dolan’s sense of entitlement: no way Lin can do as well without the Knicks brand name, he thought.

      Also, assumes the fans will pack MSG no matter what, so Lin doesn’t make a difference. It’s clear he made an emotional decision (after the aforementioned screw-ups) rather than a basketball decision, showing contempt for the fans.

    252. Brian Cronin

      It seems like if the Knicks had offered him their max, he would probably have taken and signed without testing the market.

      I dunno. Seems like a major leap to make without any real support. Not saying he wouldn’t, but I don’t see any evidence that he would have.

      Lin or his agent never went back to the Rockets themselves.

      Do we know this for sure?

    253. Kurt

      Brian,
      Both the SI article and part 6 of the Abbot piece were clearly sourced from Lin and/or his people. In the Abbot piece it suggests that Lin would have been much less likely to test the market if he was reached out to and offered the max. Beforehand, I was assuming like everyone else that he would have tested the market no matter what. Assuming the article is even somewhat correct, it looks like my assumptions were wrong.

      You’re right that if a team reached out to him and made him an offer he couldn’t refuse, he’d be a fool not to consider it. But it seems like it would have been less likely than what happened, with the Knicks lowballing him/not communicating with him.

      Granted Morey has incentive to make himself look good. But between the Lin and the Morey interviews, that’s what it seems like. Based on everything we know about Lin, I’m much more likely to believe him as to what happened rather than what a paranoid Dolan thinks happened.

    254. exel

      Brian Cronin: I dunno. Seems like a major leap to make without any real support. Not saying he wouldn’t, but I don’t see any evidence that he would have.

      Do we know this for sure?

      In an interview with Morey, it sounds like he was the one who decided the offer Lin more money because the Rockets were desperate for a point guard.

      “We no longer had Lowry or Dragic,” Rockets general manager Daryl Morey said in an interview with SI.com late Tuesday night, “and at that point we thought it made sense to offer him more money and increase our chances of getting him.”

      Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/07/18/jeremy-lin-houston-rockets-daryl-morey/index.html#ixzz218aPNUHJ

      http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/07/18/jeremy-lin-houston-rockets-daryl-morey/index.html?sct=nba_t12_a3&sct=nba_bf3_a3

    255. JK47

      How do I know Jeremy Lin is going to be good? Because everything James Dolan does is ass-backwards. He comes out on the losing end of everything, every time. If you don’t believe me I invite you to ponder the fact that the Knicks have not won a playoff series since the year 2000. They have made the same stupid “win now” type moves ever since I can remember, getting rid of promising young assets in an attempt to build around “star” players who do not deliver wins. This Lin situation is just the latest flavor of fail.

      It can only end one way: with Lin playing brilliantly, Felton playing the sucky way he always plays and Jason Kidd gets old. I’ve seen this movie before– I’ve seen it when it was called Antonio McDyess, I’ve seen it when it was called Eddy Curry, I’ve seen it when it was called Stephon Marbury, I’ve seen it when it was called Steve Francis… It always ends the same way.

    256. Kurt

      Thanks for the quotes, exel. What was also funny in the section on the Rockets was that even WITH the poison pill they thought the Knicks would match it, barring a hissy fit from Dolan, which is what happened.

    257. 2FOR18

      Z-man: It’s not about bashing Lin, it’s about the way that the decision not to match the ridiculous contract has been portrayed as a bad basketball (and financial) decision, or that Lin has proven that he is destined to be a top-10 PG. I hope, and strongly believe, that the Knicks did absolutely the right thing in going with Felton over Lin, so why would I root for Lin to do well? I hope I can look back and say, “whew, I’m sure glad we didn’t invest $25 million in that guy!” Others here seem to want Lin to be great and Felton to suck just to prove that Dolan and Melo are indeed the root of all evil, do you have a problem with them as well?

      Ultimately, I root for the Knicks and generally root against all other teams, selectively, of course. I hate the Celts and Heat far more than OKC, for example, so when they play, I root for OKC. When the Rockets play the Celts, I will root for the Rockets, but won’t be too upset if Lin gets smoked by Rondo again!

      I understand you’re a big Knicks and that you want their decisions to work out. So out of curiosity, if the _________ matched and Lin was coming back, would you then be more supportive of Lin’s prospects? I don’t remember your take on Lin prior to the Decision not to match.

    258. MeloDrama

      Z-man: D-Will absolutely destroyed Lin the second time around.Old Man Jason Kidd outplayed Lin the second time around. John Wall? He stinks so far, and I’d still sign him over Lin. Rondo almost had a double-triple-double against Lin (18-17-20).

      How much did practice time and game experience help Landry Fields? Yet even as Fields stunk up the court game after game, people would defend him and blame the system, blame Melo, bleme everyone but Fields.Lin’s fall from grace will be steeper and harder than Fields because he has fundamental problems///can’t go left (you don’t learn that skill as a 23 year old, either you have it or you dont and he doesn’t) and a very mediocre perimeter game (career 31%, following a 4-year career 33% in college). He is a poor perimeter defender and averaged nearly 5 turnovers a game as a Knick.

      3-point shooting percentage is something we’ve seen improved greatly by many, many players over the years. (Witness Kidd’s awful shot early on … and now one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in league history. Heck, he’s hitting the NBA 3 at the same rate he did at Harvard, so he’s already trending up.

      And as far as his turnovers go, by turnover percentage he took care of the ball better than Steve Nash and Rondo and did it as a virtual rookie.

      As far as “no left hand”, maybe you’re right, but it certainly didn’t derail him last season.

      But he didn’t pass Isiah’s ever-reliable eye test, so we’ll now see if it hurts him in Houston.

    259. Kurt

      Z-man:
      I don’t want to get into the Melo aspect. Whether or not he could have/should have pushed management for Lin, i agree with ruruland that he’s getting a raw deal.

      Regarding your line about whether or not Lin is “destined to be a top-10 PG,” I want to point out this other Truehoop article:

      http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/48033/jeremy-lins-contract-in-perspective

      You see that point guards clearly outside the top 10 like Mike Conley, Devin Harris, Dragic, and George Hill, are making about the same amount of money as Lin’s 8 mil a year salary. To assume that Lin deserves 8 mil a year, you only have to assume that he’s starting point guard in the average range.

    260. JK47

      Looks like the Dwightmare is not coming to the Lakers, so we’ll have to get by with Andrew Bynum.

      These are high-class problems.

    261. MeloDrama

      And also wanted to mention that people blame Melo and the system for Fields slipping because, well, Fields doesn’t fit Melo or the system. He’s fine in an offense that stresses movement without the ball, which is something he’s pretty good at; in a Melo-centric offense where movement grinds to a standstill, he’s not nearly as useful, and the Knicks are better served to have a spot shooter – yes, JR – in Fields’ place.

    262. ruruland

      re: Felton. Let’s not forget that he was traded for Andre Miller, one of the boards favorites and deservedly so. Denver didn’t want to deal with a malconent in Felton who felt he had earned a starting spot after his fantastic stint in Denver.

      Let’s also remember that George Karl was more comfortable playing Felton over Ty Lawson down the stretch, and gave Felton the responsibility of running the offense over Ty….

      Prior to last year, Felton had put up two good seasons on three seperate teams.

    263. JK47

      ruruland:
      re: Felton. Let’s not forget that he was traded for Andre Miller, one of the boards favorites and deservedly so. Denver didn’t want to deal with a malconent in Felton who felt he had earned a starting spot after his fantastic stint in Denver.

      Let’s also remember that George Karl was more comfortable playing Felton over Ty Lawson down the stretch, and gave Felton the responsibility of running the offense over Ty….

      Prior to last year, Felton had put up two good seasons on three seperate teams.

      Yeah, he was traded for a 35-year old Andre Miller, who outplayed Felton handily. I’m not sure what that’s supposed to prove, except that trading him away was a good idea.

      George Karl’s confidence in Felton was rewarded by a .479 TS% and negative WS/48 in the playoffs. The guy he apparently wasn’t confident in, Ty Lawson, only managed a .628 TS% and a .179 WS/48 in the playoffs that year.

      Of Felton’s two good seasons, one was a complete outlier in which he shot .385 from 3PT, 50 points above his career average. In his other “good” season he had a .094 WS/48. His “similarity scores” list is a who’s who of mediocre guards: Aaron McKie, Gerald Henderson, Luke Ridnour, John Paxson, Larry Steele, Travis Best…

      Color me “meh.”

      The other point guards in the division are Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, Deron Williams, Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry. I’d rather have any of those guys than Felton. Toronto has two PGs better than Felton, so he’s the 6th best PG in a division with 5 teams. 7th best if you count Jason Kidd. He’d be a bench player for every team in the Eastern Conference except Charlotte and possibly Detroit.

      He’s the point guard you get when you can’t find anybody else.

    264. nicos

      JK47:
      The other point guards in the division are Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, Deron Williams, Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry.I’d rather have any of those guys than Felton.Toronto has two PGs better than Felton, so he’s the 6th best PG in a division with 5 teams.7th best if you count Jason Kidd.He’d be a bench player for every team in the Eastern Conference except Charlotte and possibly Detroit.

      He’s the point guard you get when you can’t find anybody else.

      The problem is you can make the argument that most of those guys are better than Lin as well. If Felton plays at his NY level he’s probably better than Holiday and on par with Calderon (who’s better offensively but one of the worst defensive guards in the league) so he’d tie for fourth. And Lin would be… a clear fourth, rather than tied for fourth.

    265. JK47

      nicos: The problem is you can make the argument that most of those guys are better than Lin as well.If Felton plays at his NY level he’s probably better than Holiday and on par with Calderon (who’s better offensively but one of the worst defensive guards in the league) so he’d tie for fourth.And Lin would be… a clear fourth, rather than tied for fourth.

      The problem with this argument is that Raymond Felton has certainly already reached his upside, while Lin has not. Lin is 23 and got his first extended playing time last year. Felton is a 7-year veteran.

      People seem to be very quick to write off Felton’s terrible 2011-2012 season, in which he was a clubhouse cancer and the cause of a PG black hole in Portland, and just assume that he’s going to play the best ball of his career next year. If he plays as well as he is possibly capable of playing, he is still mediocre. If he plays like he did last season, the Knicks are fucked. If he plays somewhere in between the Knicks are still probably fucked.

    266. 2FOR18

      Deron put up a 35/14 against Nash and a 29/8 vs Rose.

      Rondo put up a 32/15/10 vs Rose, a 16/14/11, 18/15/4, 16/7/9, 44/10/8, 21/10/6, 15/15/5, 22/14/10 against Miami, a 12/16/5 against Lawson, 17/11/3 vs Parker, 10/20/10, 17/12/14 and 20/16/3 vs Teague.

      Chalmers scored 25 on Westbrook, had a 22/6 game vs Rondo and had 29/8/7 vs Teague.

      Lin put up a 25/7 and 21/9/7 vs Deron Williams, 23/10/4 vs Wall, 20/8/6 vs Rubio, 27/11/2 vs Calderon, 28/14/4 vs Kidd, 19/13/5 vs Kyrie Irving, and 20/4/3 vs T Parker.

      Cherry picking is fun!

    267. Frank

      RE: Lin and Felton – not sure why this has to be a zero sum game. Personally, I hope Felton kills it here and that Lin has a great career. It’s not like Lin joined the Celtics or the Heat (ie. natural rivals). He’s in the other conference. The only thing I feel bad about is that unless Houston gets Dwight Howard, they are probably doomed to mediocrity for a good long while – at least 3 years. I would have loved to have seen Lin hit big shots deep in the playoffs.

      And again – I can’t emphasize this enough – it’s not useful to look at Lin’s contract as an $8MM/year contract. It IS an 8MM/year contract to Lin because that’s what he takes home. To the Knicks it’s a 3 year ~$75MM contract. Felton probably costs the Knicks roughly $15MM/year less. That’s a business decision I wish they didn’t have to make, but one that I can understand.

      Re: the “Family” angle — not sure that I really agree with that, other than the idea that if Melo/Amare/Tyson went as a group to Dolan saying we NEED this guy, then probably it would have happened. But that’s a far cry from them basically pushing him out – an error of omission rather than an error of action.

      It is a little weird that the guys probably most loyal to D’Antoni (except maybe Amare, who is unmovable anyway) – Lin, Fields, Jeffries – are all gone.

    268. Z-man

      exel: So Z-Man, you have stated this several times. I agree that Chalmers shutdown Lin, but how did Rondo and Deron abuse Lin? Did you watch the games or are you going by box score stats and assuming that Lin guarded both of them the whole time? Just curious.

      Watched every game. In fact, I watched the Nets v2 game at a KB get-together.

    269. Frank

      Re: Felton – boy is he saying and doing all the right things right now.

      – getting in shape

      – saying he never wanted to leave NY and now he’s “back home”

      – not saying a single bad thing about J-Lin – This is a great quote from ESPNNY:
      “”I thought what he did was one of the best I’ve seen in basketball in a long time and I wish him the best of luck,” he said. “I’m not here to get into that he was getting way too much. I hear a lot of people saying that. I feel like if you can get money, go get it.

      “At the same time, I’m a competitor. Do I think I’m better? Of course I’m going to say that. I think I’m better than any point guard. That’s the way I’m supposed to think, but at the same time, there’s nothing personal between me and Jeremy. I know everybody’s going to try to make it that way, and if it’ll be that way, then so be it. I’ll be ready for the challenge. I’ll be better then.” ”

      – acknowledging his fatness and craptitdue last year:
      “”When I came in, I wasn’t at the weight that I normally be in,” he said. “I’m the first one to say that, I wasn’t in shape. That’s all everybody wants to talk about. I look forward to this year to shutting up everybody’s mouth. ”

      I feel like I’ve gone through all the stages of grieving, and now I’m in acceptance. I really do wish the best for Jeremy Lin, will always be a big fan and follow his career closely. But I’m a Knicks fan, and hope/predict that we’ll have a big year.

    270. Z-man

      MeloDrama: And as far as his turnovers go, by turnover percentage he took care of the ball better than Steve Nash and Rondo and did it as a virtual rookie.
      As far as “no left hand”, maybe you’re right, but it certainly didn’t derail him last season.

      My feeling is that turnovers are directly related to 3pt% and being able to go both ways. The more ways a defense can plan to defend you, the more they can force you into situations where you either have to make the sure but unproductive pass (no turnover but no assist either) or the high-risk pass that they are expecting you to make. Lin’s assists were way down in his last 10 games, as was his shooting %, PER, WS, game score, etc. You want to blame it on his injury? Fine. I think it is just as much due to the “book” on Lin being established. Nobody knows the answer, which is why suggesting that the Knicks should pay him more than Nash ever made in 2014-15 is ludicrous.

      MeloDrama: over the years.

      This is a gross overstatement, most don’t improve very much and to pay someone $15 mill in a year on the less-than-50/50 chance that they will improve significantly in 2 years is dumb. If improvement does occur, it usually takes a long time. Knicks are in win now mode.

    271. Z-man

      Kurt: You see that point guards clearly outside the top 10 like Mike Conley, Devin Harris, Dragic, and George Hill, are making about the same amount of money as Lin’s 8 mil a year salary. To assume that Lin deserves 8 mil a year, you only have to assume that he’s starting point guard in the average range.

      First of all, it’s not $8 mill a year. It’s $15 mill in year 3…for a guy with 25 games as a starter whose statistical trend in play was significantly downward.

      None of those guys got their money without paying their dues in the league. Why should Lin?

    272. Z-man

      Brian Cronin: And I am saying that you are cherry-picking. Note that no one is arguing for his best games as for what we’ll get for Lin. You, meanwhile, are arguing that he will only get worse from his lesser games – his lesser games, which weren’t even bad.

      When you only have 25 games to go on, any use of stats is cherry-picking. What I did see is a statistical decline in just about every stat except 3-pt% which was consistently mediocre and in line with his college numbers. His turnover % decreased, but at the expense of assists (again, the assist trend was significantly downward as he started making the safe pass; he had 6 or less assists in all but one of his final 7 games).

      The argument for me is whether we are better off with Lin or Felton. I didn’t see Lin do anything that I don’t think that Felton can eventually do better except get to the FT line, and I don’t think Lin can sustain that without getting hurt or committing tons of turnovers when teams start funneling him left or giving him the mildly contested 3, or running double-teams and help defenders at him. You believe Lin can and will adjust and improve in the next 2 years enough to be worth paying him $15 million in year 3. I think that is absurd, when an option like Felton is out there at $3.3 million a year. Since it’s a done deal, I hope I’m right, and you should too!

    273. Brian Cronin

      If it was an “if or” then maybe, but it wasn’t (even then, it would just be “Boy, I hope they get the worse player because he is cheaper because what matters to me is how much money Dolan spends.”) They could easily have them both. And they should have them both.

    274. Brian Cronin

      On that point, while we obviously can all understand how it can matter to Dolan how much he has to spend, why in the world does it matter to you how much players get paid if their salaries don’t affect the Knicks’ ability to add players? If it affects their roster flexibility negatively, I get that. But if it doesn’t, why do you care what Dolan has to spend? Why do you care if a player has “paid their dues” before they got a big contract if the addition of the player makes the team better and doesn’t keep them from adding other players in the future? The open market dictates salary. It is not like the Knicks won’t be able to re-sign JR Smith because Jeremy Lin got $25 million for three years.

    275. Z-man

      For one thing, matching Lin after signing Felton and Kidd was the making of a PG controversy that ultimately would have hurt the team and probably ended up badly for Lin. Why pay tens of millions for a move that was potentially very damaging to the locker room?

      That said, I would have LOVED if Dolan decided to do it, but I’m totally OK, logically speaking, that he didn’t. I think there is a very good chance that we will be a more cohesive unit in the next two years than we would be with either both players or just with Lin. There is no way to prove that either argument is correct at this point, but to argue that Dolan fucked up is no more logical than to argue that this was a sound decision. I know it’s not my money, but when I judge moves, I try to be fair in answering the question “Is it worth it?” and to judge each move on its merits.

    276. Brian Cronin

      That said, I would have LOVED if Dolan decided to do it,

      Then why spend the time picking nits about his game? There’s “Don’t overreact to his departure” and there is attacking the guy’s game. If you’d have love to bring him back, why do the latter?

      I try to be fair in answering the question “Is it worth it?” and to judge each move on its merits.

      Worth is two discussions, though. On the court worth and whatever it is worth to the dude who’s paying the bills. ruruland did some nice work arguing that the latter would be worth it, as well, in increased revenue (heck, just an extra round of the playoffs alone pays for most Lin’s luxury tax bill), but I’ll certainly allow a lot of stuff like that is speculative (don’t even get me started on marketing and stuff – I have no idea how you calculate that stuff) but at the end of the day, it is up to the dude who’s paying to say if it is worth it or not, even if it came to a matter of him saying, “Fuck that guy, I am not spending extra money on some guy who pissed me off” – if that is what it is worth to him, so fair enough. I have always allowed that if Dolan doesn’t want to pay, then Dolan doesn’t have to pay.

      On-the-courOn the court, value-wise, though, he’s worth bringing back.

    277. Z-man

      Brian Cronin: Then why spend the time picking nits about his game? There’s “Don’t overreact to his departure” and there is attacking the guy’s game. If you’d have love to bring him back, why do the latter?

      Because what I perceive to be definite red flags in his game is the reason why I’m not pissed off that Dolan didn’t match. I think that people are overreacting to the departure because they are choosing to ignore the red flags, not to mention the possible chemistry issues on the court and in the locker room.

      Imagine this: Felton legitimately outplays Lin early on in Woodson’s eyes. Woodson decides to go with Felton and bring Kidd off the bench, Lin gets 5-10 minutes per game or less. Can you imagine the mood in the Garden and the coverage in the press, especially after a loss where Felton makes a mistake? This is what the Jets signed up for with Tebow, except that Tebow at least has a specific role (wildcat) to depend on and gets paid less than Sanchez. Once the Knicks signed Felton, I have no problem with the reasoning that it would not be wise to match a ridiculous contract for a potential backup getting paid more than Felton, Kidd and Prigioni combined.

    278. Brian Cronin

      Because what I perceive to be definite red flags in his game is the reason why I’m not pissed off that Dolan didn’t match. I think that people are overreacting to the departure because they are choosing to ignore the red flags, not to mention the possible chemistry issues on the court and in the locker room.

      Imagine this: Felton legitimately outplays Lin early on in Woodson’s eyes. Woodson decides to go with Felton and bring Kidd off the bench, Lin gets 5-10 minutes per game or less. Can you imagine the mood in the Garden and the coverage in the press, especially after a loss where Felton makes a mistake? This is what the Jets signed up for with Tebow, except that Tebow at least has a specific role (wildcat) to depend on and gets paid less than Sanchez. Once the Knicks signed Felton, I have no problem with the reasoning that it would not be wise to match a ridiculous contract for a potential backup getting paid more than Felton, Kidd and Prigioni combined.

      The Knicks only have one shooting guard on the team right now. None of the three would have been playing 5-10 minutes per game. There might have been a numbers crunch when Shump returned, but by then you would be able to make an informed decision on who got what playing time.

    279. Z-man

      Or not, just don’t sign Lin and go into camp knowing what your guard rotation will be. My point is that there are ample reasons for not matching–basketball, financial, chemistry, PR–that are just as compelling as the reasons for matching him. If you put the reasons for both sides on a scale, the scale probably balances or comes very close to it. I am having no problem living with that, and am as much of a diehard fan as anybody here. I think it was a defensible decision, you don’t. If it turns out that I am wrong in hindsight, I’ll have to live with it, it won’t be the first or last time. Hopefully I am right, and as a Knicks fan, you should hope so too.

    280. bobneptune

      Z-man: First of all, it’s not $8 mill a year.It’s $15 mill in year 3…for a guy with 25 games as a starter whose statistical trend in play was significantly downward.

      None of those guys got their money without paying their dues in the league.Why should Lin?

      wait a minute. didn’t Carmelo sign a 4 yr 15M contract off 35 games at syracuse? one season at ‘cuse is paying dues for guaranteed money?

      which is a better predictor of success, 35 games in college playing a 2-3 one or 26starting and highly successful (16-10) games in the nba?

      And plz, don’t tell us melo was a lock to be a great player cause he was drafted # 3 and worth 15M sight unseen, because the following studs drafted 2nd and 3rd since melo sez hai:

      derrick williams
      hasheem thabeet
      michael beasley
      marvin williams
      emeka okafor
      enez kantner
      derrick favors
      oj mayo
      adam morrison
      darko

    281. 2FOR18

      bobneptune: wait a minute. didn’t Carmelo sign a 4 yr 15M contract off 35 games at syracuse? one season at ‘cuse is paying dues for guaranteed money?

      which is a better predictor of success, 35 games in college playing a 2-3 one or 26starting and highly successful (16-10) games in the nba?

      And plz, don’t tell us melo was a lock to be a great player cause he was drafted # 3 and worth 15M sight unseen, because the following studs drafted 2nd and 3rd since melo sez hai:

      derrick williams
      hasheem thabeet
      michael beasley
      marvin williams
      emeka okafor
      enez kantner
      derrick favors
      oj mayo
      adam morrison
      darko

      well, I think the book is still open on whether D Williams and Kanter will be worth it.

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