Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Jan 03 2013)

  • [New York Times] Warriors Hand Clippers 2nd Straight Loss, 115-94 (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 07:25:43 GMT)
    Stephen Curry’s shooting stroke flowed so smoothly he swished shots without even looking at the basket.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: Heat Rally to Beat Mavericks in Overtime (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 07:09:09 GMT)
    Miami trailed by 12 in the opening minutes and dug its way out of a 6-point hole in the final 3 minutes 2 seconds of regulation to beat Dallas.

  • [New York Times] Knicks’ Defense Loses Its Edge, Forcing Offense to Rally (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 07:09:04 GMT)
    The Knicks have gone just 5-5 in their last 10 games, allowing an average of 101.3 points per game, which ranks a dismal 25th for that span.

  • [New York Times] Nets 110, Thunder 93: Johnson Scores 33 in Nets Rout of Thunder (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 07:04:03 GMT)
    Joe Johnson scored 33 points and Deron Williams had 13 assists as the Nets, coming off a dismal December, beat Oklahoma City for the first time in eight attempts.

  • [New York Times] Boozer Leads Bulls’ Bigs in 96-94 Win Over Magic (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 06:49:33 GMT)
    The Chicago Bulls haven’t felt like themselves for much of the past few weeks.

  • [New York Times] James Helps Heat Scrape Past Mavs in Overtime (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 06:28:28 GMT)
    LeBron James got off to a surprisingly slow start but kicked into top gear to lift the NBA champion Miami Heat to a 119-109 overtime win over the stuttering Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.

  • [New York Times] Hayward’s 17 Lift Jazz Over T-Wolves 106-84 (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 04:52:50 GMT)
    Gordon Hayward scored 17 points, Enes Kanter had 15 and the Utah Jazz beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 106-84 on Wednesday night to snap a three-game losing streak.

  • [New York Times] Suns Beat 76ers to End Six-Game Skid (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 04:49:33 GMT)
    Luis Scola scored 19 of his 21 points in the second half and the Phoenix Suns beat the Philadelphia 76ers 95-89 Wednesday night to snap a six-game losing streak.

  • [New York Times] Conley, Grizzlies Hold Off Celtics 93-83 (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 04:13:42 GMT)
    Tony Allen scored a season-high 15 points to help his current team beat his old one. Then he went down the sideline trading fist-bumps and hugs with his former teammates and coaches.

  • [New York Times] Heat Scrape Past Mavs in Overtime (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 04:01:31 GMT)
    LeBron James got off to a surprisingly slow start but kicked into gear to lift NBA champions Miami to a 119-109 overtime win over the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.

  • [New York Times] Spurs Beat Bucks for Seventh Straight Victory (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:52:49 GMT)
    Tim Duncan had 28 points, 13 rebounds and six assists, and the San Antonio Spurs used torrid first-half shooting to beat the Milwaukee Bucks 117-110 Wednesday night for their seventh consecutive victory.

  • [New York Times] Harden, Rockets Beat Hornets 104-92 (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:46:44 GMT)
    James Harden had 31 points and seven assists to lead the Houston Rockets to a 104-92 victory over the New Orleans Hornets on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Nets Drop Thunder 110-93 as Durant Ejected (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:40:54 GMT)
    Joe Johnson scored a season-high 33 points, Deron Williams added 19 points and 13 assists, and the Brooklyn Nets snapped Oklahoma City’s 12-game home winning streak by beating the Thunder 110-93 Wednesday night in a game featuring the first ejection of Kevin Durant’s career.

  • [New York Times] James Scores 32, Heat Beat Mavs in OT, 119-109 (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:40:47 GMT)
    LeBron James scored 32 points and finished one assist shy of a triple-double, Dwyane Wade scored 27 and the Miami Heat rallied both early and late before beating the Dallas Mavericks 119-109 in overtime Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Stoudemire Takes a Shot at D’Antoni (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:23:25 GMT)
    Amar’e Stoudemire, at Knicks practice on Wednesday, took a swipe at his former coach, Mike D’Antoni, saying that he had never been properly taught how to play defense.

  • [New York Times] Thompson, Cousins Lead Kings Past Cavaliers 97-94 (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 02:56:23 GMT)
    Jason Thompson scored 19 points and DeMarcus Cousins had 18 points Wednesday night, leading the Sacramento Kings to their second road win of the season, 97-94 over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

  • [New York Times] Pacers Beat Wizards for 6th Straight Home Win (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 02:49:49 GMT)
    Paul George had 29 points and 13 rebounds, D.J. Augustin scored 18 points, and the Indiana Pacers beat the Washington Wizards 89-81 on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Ross Scores 26 Points, Raptors Beat Trail Blazers (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 02:49:44 GMT)
    Terrence Ross scored a career-high 26 points, DeMar DeRozan had 24 and the Toronto Raptors snapped an eight-game losing streak against Portland by beating the Trail Blazers 102-79 on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] On Pro Basketball: The Existential Crisis of Deron Williams (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 02:17:13 GMT)
    Explanations for the struggles of the Nets’ point guard include fatigue, a bum wrist and, according to him, a loss of confidence.

  • [New York Times] Pistons’ Villanueva Fined $25,000 for Flagrant Foul (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 00:04:27 GMT)
    Detroit Pistons forward Charlie Villanueva has been fined $25,000 for a flagrant foul on Sacramento Kings guard Isaiah Thomas, the National Basketball Association said on Wednesday.

  • [New York Daily News] Amar’e needles defenseless D’Antoni (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 04:25:29 GMT)
    Amar’e Stoudemire added some fuel to the New York-L.A. rivalry when he heaped praise on Mike Woodson on Wednesday, while also indirectly criticizing Mike D’Antoni for his failure to teach defense when he was coaching in New York.

  • [New York Daily News] Lawrence: Knicks hope Kidd can Spur defense (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:37:43 GMT)
    From their alarming defensive lapses, to Raymond Felton’s absence and to the return of Amar’e Stoudemire possibly screwing up Carmelo Anthony’s MVP bid, the Knicks find themselves in their first great crisis of the season.

  • [New York Daily News] Amar’e can’t defend D’Antoni’s approach (Thu, 03 Jan 2013 03:21:10 GMT)
    Too bad the Knicks and Lakers are done playing for this season . . . unless they meet in the Finals.

  • 28 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Jan 03 2013)

    1. KnickfaninNJ

      Nate Taylor wrote in the NY Times that the Knicks have trouble with young, quick point guards. It’s true that Lillard is young and quick, but good young point guards give everyone trouble. But to me, it’s an opponent having an excellent front line that can defend Chandler’s pick and roll and has more than one offensive threat that characterizes team the Knicks lose to. Does anyone have comments which is more true?

    2. johnlocke

      Knickfan, in the beginning of the season I would have agreed with your hypothesis when we lost to Memphis and Brooklyn. Over the course of the season these are the teams we’ve lost to with Melo in the lineup thus far — Nov: (@Memphis, @Dallas, @Houston, @Brooklyn) Jan/Dec: (Chicago, @LA, Portland). Of the bunch only Memphis, Portland and Houston have a young, quick point guard. Our issue is really poor defense in general (points in the paint, defending the 3 point line and staying in front of guards) and specifically the eFG% and points per game we are giving up. In the 7 losses with Melo in the lineup we’re giving up well over 100 points a game.
      @Memphis – 105
      @Dallas – 114
      @Houston – 131
      @Brooklyn – 96 (OT)
      Chicago – 110
      @LA – 100
      @ Portland 105

      We’ve only lost 2 games all season when keeping the opposition below 100, and one of them was w/o Melo. I’d argue that for this team, Shump’s return is much more important than Amare’s for the reasons above. We need to improve our defense, our offense has been very good. We’ve only not scored 100 points or more in 4 games this season with Melo in the lineup and we’re 2-2 in those games.

    3. thenamestsam

      KnickfaninNJ:
      Nate Taylor wrote in the NY Times that the Knicks have trouble with young, quick point guards. It’s true that Lillard is young and quick, but good young point guards give everyone trouble.But to me, it’s an opponent having an excellent front line that can defend Chandler’s pick and roll and has more than one offensive threat that characterizes team the Knicks lose to.Does anyone have comments which is more true?

      The elite defensive center thing is the one I had noticed. For me the guys who really standout as guys who can limit the other team’s pick and roll opportunities almost single-handedly (Chandler excluded) are Noah (0-2), Asik (0-2), Howard when he’s healthy (1-1), Gasol (0-1), Duncan (1-0) and Garnett (0-0). So I have us down as 2-6 against those elite PnR stoppers. Some other factors obviously at play in those games, but when team’s defend our pick and roll fairly successfully without having to help excessively it dries up a lot of the ball movement and open 3s that we’ve relied on. It puts a ton of the onus on Melo and JR to create everything.

      That said, quick guards definitely give us trouble. Felton’s defense is extremely overrated to my eyes, Kidd will get a couple steals with his amazing hands but he’s too slow to consistently cover those guys, and while I like Prigioni’s defense overall he’s not exactly the fleetest of foot either and he tends to gamble for steals.

      The second problem is an issue with an obvious solution (Shump, we love you baby. We miss you. Please come back.) The 2nd problem isn’t one that I think anyone can do anything about. Good defensive centers are good (Duh) and they slow down a lot of offenses. Hopefully our own one shows up more often in the playoffs than he has at times so far this year.

    4. DRed

      Brian Cronin:
      Your comment just reminded me that the Knicks have somehow not played the Celtics yet. What’s up with that?

      It’s ridiculous. I’ve been waiting since 2012 for a piece of the Celts.

    5. thenamestsam

      Brian Cronin:
      Your comment just reminded me that the Knicks have somehow not played the Celtics yet. What’s up with that?

      Yeah, I had a bit of a double take on that too, wondering if I somehow forgot one right at the start of the year. It IS weird not having played them yet. I’m looking forward to it because I haven’t watched them play much (they’re like the opposite of a league-pass team, no matchup involving them looks enticing) and so I don’t have much of a handle on their struggles except that their defense falls apart without KG and I guess they’re not good enough elsewhere to compensate for it.

    6. StatsTeacher

      Hollinger’s ratings have Knicks vs. MIL 1st round. Long way off, but that may not be a great matchup, speaking of guard speed. But MIL shoots an ungodly # of bad jumpers (led by Monta, of course).

      http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

      Hollingers (ESPN still says “Hollinger” but he doesn’t work there anymore(?)) number crunching has moved Knicks down a bit, the model didn’t like the Portland loss. The model loved the GS over LAC win for GS and HOU is 5th overall. West is a beast.

      http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

    7. Brian Cronin

      I think they’re going to keep the name since the program runs by itself without Hollinger’s input. It’s just his system, so it’ll remain “Hollinger.” Although I wouldn’t be surprised if they got a new system next year by someone else (Perhaps Lowe?).

    8. StatsTeacher

      The model sure doesn’t like East teams, at least for now. Something like a 70-75% chance the champ is from the West. I doubt the model takes into consideration that the playoffs in the West will be a battle to the death, the victor looking like Russell Crowe. . . . . .

    9. Nick C.

      If I had to choose I would go with the center who can handle the PnR. In theory adding Amare to the mix should alter that. I’d give it a few weeks or half dozen games to see how it works, and if it doesn’t blame it on Felton being out and if it still doesn’t on Felton beign rusty …
      Speaking of Felton, notwithstanding the injury, does it seem like groundhog day with him. Early on team rolls. Everybody loves Raymond. Then “you know he shoots too much” 1.0 I think he was taking pull up threes late in games missing and making quotes after the game about confidence or some such thing. Also over time the defense did not seem so hot or perhaps the expectations were unrealistic.

    10. Frank

      Very interesting article here about how Synergy thinks Novak is a very good defender:

      http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53195/the-defense-of-a-shooter

      This paragraph, especially, seems quite true to me:

      “More obvious than Novak’s lack of speed, however, are the wide eyes of his opponents. Basically, what the video shows is player after player with an almost visible thought bubble over their heads: HOLY COW I HAVE STEVE NOVAK ON ME AND HE’S HORRIBLE. TIME TO FIRE AWAY. “

    11. DRed

      “Novak’s defensive ratings are, in fact, especially elite in isolation.”

      Steve needs to add the Mutombo finger wag to the DDC after he locks down another man one on one.

    12. Frank

      DRed:
      “Novak’s defensive ratings are, in fact, especially elite in isolation.”

      Steve needs to add the Mutombo finger wag to the DDC after he locks down another man one on one.

      That would seriously be epic GIF’ing if that ever happened. He really has to do this.

    13. thenamestsam

      Frank:
      Very interesting article here about how Synergy thinks Novak is a very good defender:

      http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/53195/the-defense-of-a-shooter

      This paragraph, especially, seems quite true to me:

      “More obvious than Novak’s lack of speed, however, are the wide eyes of his opponents. Basically, what the video shows is player after player with an almost visible thought bubble over their heads: HOLY COW I HAVE STEVE NOVAK ON ME AND HE’S HORRIBLE. TIME TO FIRE AWAY. ”

      Yeah, great stuff by Abbot. I think it’s important in all these discussions to be careful about phrasing, so I’ll point out that it’s not really true to say “Synergy thinks Novak is a very good defender”. As Abbot says “They’re not really in the business of rating players. They’re in the business of charting plays.”

      Synergy thinks that Novak’s man rarely scores which is not really the same as being a good defender. He’s basically always hidden on the other team’s worst offensive player, and he is a truly horrid help defender (one area where his truly astounding lack of quickness really hurts him). But I’ve definitely noticed a positive defensive impact occasionally just because teams try to force-feed the guy going against him and throw off their whole offense. I actually noted it just the other day when Portland was just shredding us with PnR over and over again, Novak came in and they ran a post-up for JJ Hickson against him. Yeah, he had Novak on him, but Hickson is not a one-on-one post up player at all and he predictably turned it over. The phenomenon is definitely real. I wonder if it’s mostly limited to bad teams however.

    14. nicos

      thenamestsam: Yeah, great stuff by Abbot. I think it’s important in all these discussions to be careful about phrasing, so I’ll point out that it’s not really true to say “Synergy thinks Novak is a very good defender”. As Abbot says “They’re not really in the business of rating players. They’re in the business of charting plays.”

      Synergy thinks that Novak’s man rarely scores which is not really the same as being a good defender. He’s basically always hidden on the other team’s worst offensive player, and he is a truly horrid help defender (one area where his truly astounding lack of quickness really hurts him).

      Agree- one thing I miss about Sheed is him screaming “Novak!” about once a game as an opposing player lays it in after Steve blows a rotation. Of course this should soon be replaced with screams of “Amar’e!”

    15. Douglas

      nicos: Agree- one thing I miss about Sheed is him screaming “Novak!” about once a game as an opposing player lays it in after Steve blows a rotation.Of course this should soon be replaced with screams of “Amar’e!”

      It’s like a world-weary police sergeant barking at the precinct’s clumsiest cop.

      “NOVAK! ONE MORE SCREW UP LIKE THAT AND I’M BUSTING YOU DOWN TO THE DOCKS!”

    16. d-mar

      Interesting that we’re a 1 point favorite tonight. I would expect a lot of money on the Spurs, but somehow I think we might figure out a way to win this one (maybe Parker was out clubbing till the wee hours, hopefully didn’t run into JR)

    17. Brian Cronin

      If Parker was out clubbing, there’s always the chance he’ll get caught up in another Chris Brown/Drake brouhaha (man, how effed up was that? To get seriously injured in a fight that you had nothing to do with? Ridiculous).

    18. Juany8

      The synergy rankings ignore help defense, which is pretty damn important. The only point Abbott proved is that stupid players will play even stupider when they are playing against Novak. Smart teams will put his man in motion and laugh as they get easy layups. There’s a reason all of the major lineups involving Novak are getting blown out, the guy is by far the Knick’s worst player.

    19. KnickfaninNJ

      JohnLocke,

      The defense is definitely worse lately. The team just looks asleep sometimes. Like Tuesday it was like they were the ones who had been on the road in NYC on New Year’s Eve instead of Portland. Part of that may be that Melo has moved to the four and also that Sheed is hurt,but it could also be that the mix of teams we have played lately isn’t as favorable for us. But Stams stats also suggest that good defensive front lines will continue to give us trouble. I hope Amare helps. He showed some signs of working well with Prigione Tuesday and, unlike Chandler, his short range jump shot is a real threat, and this will make him harder to defend. If he can learn something new on defense, that will help us too.

    20. thenamestsam

      Juany8:
      The synergy rankings ignore help defense, which is pretty damn important. The only point Abbott proved is that stupid players will play even stupider when they are playing against Novak. Smart teams will put his man in motion and laugh as they get easy layups. There’s a reason all of the major lineups involving Novak are getting blown out, the guy is by far the Knick’s worst player.

      When he’s shooting 47% on 3s on 10 attempts per 36 like he did last year he’s a pretty decent player in my eyes. Tremendously flawed in many ways, but amazing at the one thing he does well. But when he’s shooting “only” 43% on 7 attempts per 36 he suddenly looks a lot less playable.

      I think the Heat kind of unmasked him in the playoffs last year. A big part of his advantage last year was the surprise factor where teams just didn’t realize or weren’t taking seriously how automatic he was when open. But the Heat showed that if you pay real attention to him you can completely shut down his attempts, and that has clearly carried over to this year with the dramatic decrease in attempts per 36. It’s backed up by the eye test as well. Teams definitely seem to be wary of helping off of him, and teams are very alive to the threat when he comes off picks. At least a once a night it seems the Knicks run a play from a timeout that looks designed to free Novak and teams are usually hyper alive to it. I’m not sure I’ve seen him get an open 3 out of it yet.

    21. ephus

      Others have already made this point, but Novak’s failings on defense are in rotations and help. The numbers show this. As Abbot writes, 82games.com shows that the Knicks give up 2.2 points more per 100 possessions when Novak is on the floor (107.7 vs. 105.5). Since Novak’s teammates do not become less active on defense when he is on the floor, the most likely explanation is that Novak is much worse at defensive rotations than whomever he replaces. Since Novak ordinarily replaces ‘Melo (who has often had defensive lapses on rotations, although he has been much more focused this year), we can conclude that Novak is much worse at defensive rotations than ‘Melo.

      As JVG is fond of saying on air, the key to great defense is to “help the helper.” Novak is horrible at this.

    22. max fisher-cohen

      top ten scoring point guard/combo guards:

      1) James Harden
      2) Kyrie Irving
      3) Russell Westbrook
      4) Stephen Curry
      5) Monta Ellis
      6) Tony Parker
      7) Jrue Holiday
      8) Damian Lillard
      9) OJ Mayo
      10) Kemba Walker

      NY record vs above players’ teams: 7-4
      Above teams’ win percentage (adjusted for # of games vs. above players’ teams): 0.425
      Knicks margin of victory vs. above teams: +1.8 pts
      Knicks margin without games vs. Houston: +6.8 pts

      If you look instead at PGs/CGs with the best WS/48, and you expand things out to top 15, you get this list. I removed Kidd from the list since for obvious reasons:

      1) Chris Paul
      2) Tony Parker
      3) James Harden
      4) Russell Westbrook
      5) Kyle Lowry
      6) George Hill
      7) Stephen Curry
      8) Mike Conley
      9) Jarrett Jack
      10) Jose Calderon
      11) Louis Williams
      12) Eric Bledsoe
      13) Jamal Crawford
      14) Goran Dragic
      15) Kyrie Irving

      the first thing I notice is that somehow NY has only played the above 11 teams 8 times and will play 20 of their final 51 games vs them. The math also looks quite a bit worse:

      NYK record: 5-3
      combined win % of above teams (adjusted): 0.512
      Knicks average margin vs. above teams: -3.1

      So the record is a bit deceptive since all 3 losses were by double digits and 4 of the 5 wins were close games.

      Irving and Conley were the only 2 to play with above average efficiency (harden scored well but with below average efficiency) while Parker, Dragic and Hill all sucked, so it could be the Knicks do a decent job containing the initial attack but struggle to rotate. My theory is that NY has 3 major weaknesses: Scoring guards (due to poor guard footspeed), fast defenses (they can closeout Knick 3 ball shooters, most of whom struggle off the dribble), and strong rebounding teams (due to their lack of size). In recent games, with perimeter shooters struggling, I would add a 4th category: disciplined defenses that know who to double off of, and stick with Chandler on PnRs.

    23. DRed

      ephus:
      Others have already made this point, but Novak’s failings on defense are in rotations and help.The numbers show this.As Abbot writes, 82games.com shows that the Knicks give up 2.2 points more per 100 possessions when Novak is on the floor (107.7 vs. 105.5).Since Novak’s teammates do not become less active on defense when he is on the floor, the most likely explanation is that Novak is much worse at defensive rotations than whomever he replaces.Since Novak ordinarily replaces ‘Melo (who has often had defensive lapses on rotations, although he has been much more focused this year), we can conclude that Novak is much worse at defensive rotations than ‘Melo.

      As JVG is fond of saying on air, the key to great defense is to “help the helper.”Novak is horrible at this.

      The numbers from 82 games last season show the Knicks as being slightly better on defense with Novak on the court.

    24. thenamestsam

      Camby-man will start at the 4. Makes sense to switch up the starting lineup I think. They need to do something to get off to better starts. I’d rather see JR for Brewer, but at least we’re tinkering.

    25. ruruland

      thenamestsam:
      Camby-man will start at the 4. Makes sense to switch up the starting lineup I think. They need to do something to get off to better starts. I’d rather see JR for Brewer, but at least we’re tinkering.

      this is exciting. Woodson has figured out that Chandler and

      thenamestsam:
      Camby-man will start at the 4. Makes sense to switch up the starting lineup I think. They need to do something to get off to better starts. I’d rather see JR for Brewenr, but at least we’re tinkering.

      Woodson’s figured out that Camby and Chandler complement each other extremely well on defense. Would love to see Camby start, getting 25ish minutes moving forward.

    26. jon abbey

      was out all day and missed this thread totally, but it’s worth noting on the Hollinger rankings (which I think are superb, by the way, both last year and this I’ve been very impressed with them) who the second highest Atlantic team is, nipping at our heels…

      that’s right, the red-hot Toronto Raptors.

    Comments are closed.