Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, September 1, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Aug 01 2013)

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Wall Extends Contract With Wizards (Thu, 01 Aug 2013 04:10:41 GMT)
    Point guard John Wall, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 N.B.A. draft, agreed to a contract extension with the Wizards.    

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Braxton Leads Liberty Past Mystics (Thu, 01 Aug 2013 04:08:45 GMT)
    Kara Braxton scored 22 points, Cappie Pondexter had 19, and the Liberty defeated the Mystics.    

  • [New York Times] Ossie Schectman, N.B.A.’s First Scorer, Dies at 94 (Thu, 01 Aug 2013 01:18:12 GMT)
    The 6-foot Knicks guard and captain made history on a layup a minute or so into a game against the Toronto Huskies on Nov. 1, 1946.    

  • 31 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Aug 01 2013)

    1. d-mar

      Nets sign Alan Anderson for the vets minimum. Another shrewd and brilliant move, and another piece added to the championship puzzle, woohoo!

    2. Hubert

      You know, if you don’t want to have a negative outlook on JR Smith’s knee injury, don’t be a soccer fan (or read what I’m about to say).

      Over in my other message board universe we continue to discuss a player who, like JR Smith, was having knee problems, played through them, and ultimately had to have surgery to repair his patellar tendon and a torn meniscus. Initial diagnosis: out 4 months, full recovery expected. That was 11.5 months ago. Player still hasn’t been able to practice.

      This has prompted a long review of other players who have had the same injury, and every day someone finds another terrible example. Today it’s former Brazilian superstar and World Player of the Year, Ricardo Kaka.

      Kaka had surgery on his left knee to repair a torn meniscus and damage to his patellar tendon in August 2010. It was an injury he nursed throughout the prior season and played on for months. He was expected to be out for 3-4 months.

      He came back 6 months later and was incapable of playing a full game for the entire year. He went from best player in the world to 30 minute substitute (and an ineffective one at that). His career was pretty much derailed.

      Sorry to be gloom and doom (and even more sorry to sound like Frank Isola), but I continue to think there is very good reason to expect JR Smith to not be useful next year. I will, however, promise not to beat this drum again now that I’ve (more than) sufficiently made my point.

    3. DS

      I doubt Jamison could be had for the vet minimum; but he could prob. add some bulk to a lineup at the 4. It would seem a little redundant with Kenyon and Metta, but he’s a better rebounder to stick next to Kenyon in the event that Chandler’s on the bench.

      Dude can still play pretty well at 37.

    4. lavor postell

      Kaka was already on the decline in effectiveness, durability and production following his ridiculous 06-07 season in which he won World Player of the Year and put on an absolute clinic against Manchester United in the Champions League semis. While he remained dominant against domestic competition in Serie A, his numbers in Europe against the best teams in the Champions League fell off a cliff. Many players who depends significantly on pace in creating chances for them and their teammates suffer a decline in their mid-20′s (i.e. Wayne Rooney who now is often made to play deeper in a midfield role rather than as an out and out striker).

      All that being said Kaka hasn’t been an awful footballer at all at Madrid, but rather been a victim of his price tag, politics in the board room and the general hysteria that surrounds playing for Real.

      09-10: 33 appearances, 9 goals, 8 assists
      10-11: 20 appearances, 7 goals, 6 assists
      11-12: 40 appearances, 8 goals, 14 assists
      12-13: 27 appearances, 5 goals, 4 assists

      Remember that after the 09-10 season Madrid immediately purchased Ozil who plays in the same exact position, effectively relegating Kaka to the bench. In the 11-12 season when he was given opportunities not just off the bench but also in starting he was productive. While he hasn’t reached the heady heights of 06-07 since joining Real his price tag and the expectations surround his arrival in combination with Ronaldo I think has clouded the narrative. It doesn’t help that his ridiculous wages have made it impossible for Real to move him as much as they’ve tried the past 3 summers and instead he must content himself with 30 minute cameos.

    5. Hubert

      Kaka was never a player who relied on pace. The issue of his effectiveness before an after the injury is debatable. Regardless of how effective he was, he was *always* a player capable of playing 90 minutes before the injury. It took him two years to be able to play a full match again.

      And the player whose health is currently worrying me, by the way, is Younes Kaboul, if you’re familiar with Tottenham. Guy’s been out 11.5 months with JR’s injury. Every time he comes back there’s a complication. 11 months we were all sounding just like everyone else here. 4 months, he’ll be back, it’s minor.

      Hopefully I’m just freaking out.

    6. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Eternal OptiKnist: And melo shot 27, 35, 37, 32, 33..then he hits NY and bam..43. Ur telling me a 7-foot gifted shooter in a new situation that is designed to maximize his particular strength can’t hit 39? Especially playing alongside a player that requires a double team? Forget not that he’s still 28. I’m not saying he’s going the average 10 rebs…just that he’ll shoot it well. Alright dRed, its a bet!

      This is totally disingenuous, par for the course on this site.

      Carmelo Anthony shot well for 27 games after the trade, and the last two years has essentially equaled his career 3P% rate. If you’re going to explain the rise for those 27 games, you have to be able to explain the regression, too.

      Every player has a ceiling. Arguing which players are inhibited from reaching that ceiling and why is so specious it’s not even worth our time.

    7. Hubert

      KnickfaninNJ:
      Well, Hubert, given that you are normally an optimist, this is depressing reading.

      HA!!!! You must not have been here the day of game 6 in Boston when they announced Bennett Salvatore was reffing the game.

      I’m not an optimist. I’m bipolar.

    8. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is totally disingenuous, par for the course on this site.

      Carmelo Anthony shot well for 27 games after the trade, and the last two years has essentially equaled his career 3P% rate. If you’re going to explain the rise for those 27 games, you have to be able to explain the regression, too.

      In classic THCJ form, this is totally disingenuous, par for the course for his posts.

      Did you even bother to look at the percentages before you made that statement?

      Carmelo’s Denver numbers:
      Total minutes played = 20521
      3P made: 410
      3P attempted 1320
      3P% 31.1%
      3PA/36 = 2.32

      Carmelo’s NYK numbers (total)
      Total minutes played: 5335
      3P made: 278
      3P attempted: 742
      3P%: 37.5
      3PA/36: 5.01

      Carmelo’s NYK numbers not counting those super-special first 27 games:
      Total minutes played: 4358
      3P made: 225
      3P attempted: 617
      3P%: 36
      3PA/36: 5.1

      So I think what you meant to say is that Melo increased his eFG on 3 pointers from 46.6% to 56.3% while increasing his 3P volume by 117%. And that every player has a ceiling, but that we don’t know what that ceiling will be in any given situation. It may be the same ceiling as before, or it might not. I think that’s what you meant to say.

    9. Hubert

      JK47:
      Why, oh why:

      http://theknicksblog.com/knicks/stephen-a-smith-lebron-james-to-strongly-consider-knicks-in-2-years/

      Not gonna lie, I’ve been harboring this fantasy in an inner recess of my heart, and I think we all should be.

      Everyone thinks these guys are going to opt out in 2014. Here’s the compelling argument for each of them to opt in:

      LeBron: could quite possibly be defending a threepeat. At the very least, unless Dwyane Wade completely falls off a cliff this season, he’ll be coming off a strong Heat season and their prospects for 2015 will look good. It will be hard to walk away from that.

      Carmelo: money. This is something everyone who suggests Melo is certain to opt keep missing. It would cost him money, and not just a little. I’ve outlined this before, but the reason it would be costly comes down to the 9% raises under his old-CBA contract and the 5% maximum raises under the new CBA. If he opts out in 2014 and signs a max contract, it will be over $11 million less than the max contract he can sign in 2015. Furthermore he would be swapping the ability to earn $24mm in 2014-15 for whatever the market would give him as a 36 y/o FA in 2016 (not $24mm).

      The same applies to LeBron, by the way. They both stand to make more money in the long run by opting in.

      And if they both opt in and are free agents together in 2015…well that’s where my fantasy begins.

    10. Brian Cronin

      Did Melo seriously tell a reporter that he wasn’t ready to commit to the Knicks beyond this season? Did that really happen or is the media just spinning some BS?

    11. DRed

      Brian Cronin:
      Did Melo seriously tell a reporter that he wasn’t ready to commit to the Knicks beyond this season? Did that really happen or is the media just spinning some BS?

      Let’s hope he did. Whatever you think of Melo now, giving a ton of money to him in his decline years is a terrible idea for the Knicks going forward. He gets banged up every year and he’s 29. How good do you really think he’s going to be at 33? Melo opting out and going somewhere else would be terrific for the long term health of the Knicks. Or it would be if we could get rid of guitar jimmy at the same time.

    12. flossy

      Frank: In classic THCJ form, this is totally disingenuous, par for the course for his posts.

      Did you even bother to look at the percentages before you made that statement?

      Carmelo’s Denver numbers:
      Total minutes played = 20521
      3P made: 410
      3P attempted 1320
      3P% 31.1%
      3PA/36 = 2.32

      Carmelo’s NYK numbers (total)
      Total minutes played: 5335
      3P made: 278
      3P attempted: 742
      3P%: 37.5
      3PA/36: 5.01

      Carmelo’s NYK numbers not counting those super-special first 27 games:
      Total minutes played: 4358
      3P made: 225
      3P attempted: 617
      3P%: 36
      3PA/36: 5.1

      So I think what you meant to say is that Melo increased his eFG on 3 pointers from 46.6% to 56.3% while increasing his 3P volume by 117%.And that every player has a ceiling, but that we don’t know what that ceiling will be in any given situation. It may be the same ceiling as before, or it might not. I think that’s what you meant to say.

      Have mercy!

    13. lavor postell

      Hubert:
      Kaka was never a player who relied on pace.The issue of his effectiveness before an after the injury is debatable.Regardless of how effective he was, he was *always* a player capable of playing 90 minutes before the injury.It took him two years to be able to play a full match again.

      And the player whose health is currently worrying me, by the way, is Younes Kaboul, if you’re familiar with Tottenham.Guy’s been out 11.5 months with JR’s injury.Every time he comes back there’s a complication.11 months we were all sounding just like everyone else here. 4 months, he’ll be back, it’s minor.

      Hopefully I’m just freaking out.

      Yeah I guess pace was the wrong word, but his quick acceleration and agility has not been the same since then. Be it an injury that slowly manifested itself or just a natural regression in his level of play.

      And yeah that sucks for Tottenham but if this rumor of a $158.5 million bid for Bale is true they might have some money to splash on replacing that problem. The football transfer windows really are something.

    14. Hubert

      Money break down, for those interested:

      Salary for 2014-15 if Melo opts in: $23,530,000
      Max salary for 2014-15 if Melo opts out: $22,564,500

      That $1mm difference may seem minor but because the contracts are eligible for 5% raises every year, it compounds and gets wider.

      Max he can sign for in 2014 if he opts out: 5 yrs, $124,683,106.34
      Max he can sign for in 2015 if he opts in: $136,519,008.48

      That’s a difference of $11.8mm.

      But here is the kicker:

      This is probably Melo’s last max contract. If he opts out in 2014, he sacrifices a year of being a max player. He’s not going to earn as much as a 36 y/o FA in 2020 as he will now.

      So really, the two options he will have in front of him for the next 6 years:

      Opt out & sign in 2014: 5 years, $124.6mm + whatever you can earn as a 36 y/o free agent in 2020.
      Opt in & sign in 2015: 6 years, $160.0mm through 2020.

      That’s a massive difference!!! If he doesn’t opt in, he needs a new accountant.

    15. er

      Hubert:
      Money break down, for those interested:

      Salary for 2014-15 if Melo opts in: $23,530,000
      Max salary for 2014-15 if Melo opts out: $22,564,500

      That $1mm difference may seem minor but because the contracts are eligible for 5% raises every year, it compounds and gets wider.

      Max he can sign for in 2014 if he opts out: 5 yrs, $124,683,106.34
      Max he can sign for in 2015 if he opts in: $136,519,008.48

      That’s a difference of $11.8mm.

      But here is the kicker:

      This is probably Melo’s last max contract.If he opts out in 2014, he sacrifices a year of being a max player.He’s not going to earn as much as a 36 y/o FA in 2020 as he will now.

      So really, the two options he will have in front of him for the next 6 years:

      Opt out & sign in 2014: 5 years, $124.6mm + whatever you can earn as a 36 y/o free agent in 2020.
      Opt in & sign in 2015: 6 years, $160.0mm through 2020.

      That’s a massive difference!!!If he doesn’t opt in, he needs a new accountant.

      Nice breakdown Hubert. I never really knew why it was assumed he was opting out.

    16. KnickfaninNJ

      Hubert: HA!!!!You must not have been here the day of game 6 in Boston when they announced Bennett Salvatore was reffing the game.

      I’m not an optimist.I’m bipolar.

      I think bipolar is an infection caused by being a Knicks fan for a long time. I wish there were more ups than downs.

    17. Loathing

      I could think of worse people to join the Knicks than LeBron. Like ANYBODY. Love him of hate him, he’s the MVP for a reason. I’d take him as a 1 to ‘Melo’s 1A or vice versa. Either would be a better 4 than STAT right now.

    18. JK47

      Loathing:
      I could think of worse people to join the Knicks than LeBron. Like ANYBODY. Love him of hate him, he’s the MVP for a reason. I’d take him as a 1 to ‘Melo’s 1A or vice versa. Either would be a better 4 than STAT right now.

      I meant “why, oh why must I be tortured like this.”

      Yeah, sure, it’d be great if LeBron came here. I’m not getting my hopes up again.

    19. Brian Cronin

      Alan Anderson is a nice player at the vet minimum. That move annoyed me. Hopefully the Knicks get one of the better remaining players out there for the vet minimum, like Udrih or Odom.

    20. flossy

      Hubert:
      Money break down, for those interested:

      Salary for 2014-15 if Melo opts in: $23,530,000
      Max salary for 2014-15 if Melo opts out: $22,564,500

      That $1mm difference may seem minor but because the contracts are eligible for 5% raises every year, it compounds and gets wider.

      Max he can sign for in 2014 if he opts out: 5 yrs, $124,683,106.34
      Max he can sign for in 2015 if he opts in: $136,519,008.48

      That’s a difference of $11.8mm.

      But here is the kicker:

      This is probably Melo’s last max contract.If he opts out in 2014, he sacrifices a year of being a max player.He’s not going to earn as much as a 36 y/o FA in 2020 as he will now.

      So really, the two options he will have in front of him for the next 6 years:

      Opt out & sign in 2014: 5 years, $124.6mm + whatever you can earn as a 36 y/o free agent in 2020.
      Opt in & sign in 2015: 6 years, $160.0mm through 2020.

      That’s a massive difference!!!If he doesn’t opt in, he needs a new accountant.

      If we agree to pay Carmelo Anthony $26 million dollars in his 36th year, I just don’t even…

    21. Frank

      flossy: Have mercy!

      lol – perhaps that was a bit strong. But deserved.

      Hubert: So really, the two options he will have in front of him for the next 6 years:

      Opt out & sign in 2014: 5 years, $124.6mm + whatever you can earn as a 36 y/o free agent in 2020.
      Opt in & sign in 2015: 6 years, $160.0mm through 2020.

      I’m sort of hoping he looks in his bank account and realizes that (by end of 13-14 season) he’s already made $140MM on-court and probably $50MM off-court — and that he’ll make much more off-court if he wins a championship. And that the best way to a championship is for him to take a little less so that the team can pay other players. Ruru said he thinks Melo might be thinking the same way. Would be nice.

    22. Hubert

      I’m sort of hoping he looks in his bank account and realizes that (by end of 13-14 season) he’s already made $140MM on-court and probably $50MM off-court — and that he’ll make much more off-court if he wins a championship. And that the best way to a championship is for him to take a little less so that the team can pay other players.Ruru said he thinks Melo might be thinking the same way. Would be nice.

      What I’m saying is he can have both, and never leave NY, if he & LeBron opt in for 2014-15 and he convinces LBJ to join him here like Wade did.

      Only problem with that scenario? He has to be patient. We saw how that worked out in the winter of 2011.

      In other words, it will never happen. But I like to dream that it will.

    23. Brian Cronin

      ’m sort of hoping he looks in his bank account and realizes that (by end of 13-14 season) he’s already made $140MM on-court and probably $50MM off-court — and that he’ll make much more off-court if he wins a championship. And that the best way to a championship is for him to take a little less so that the team can pay other players. Ruru said he thinks Melo might be thinking the same way. Would be nice.

      That’s the thing with the recent story about him not being willing to commit to the Knicks past this season (in the story, he also sure sounds a bit dejected over what the Nets did this offseason). In effect, I have no clue where Melo’s head is at right now.

      I was fully expecting him to opt in and then take a reduced salary in 2015 when the Knicks have all that cap room (by “reduced,” I was figuring $18 million instead of $23 million). But now, I dunno, I really don’t know where his head is at.

    24. Z

      Hubert:

      The two options he will have in front of him for the next 6 years:

      Opt out & sign in 2014: 5 years, $124.6mm + whatever you can earn as a 36 y/o free agent in 2020.
      Opt in & sign in 2015: 6 years, $160.0mm through 2020.

      That’s a massive difference!!!If he doesn’t opt in, he needs a new accountant.

      Yeah, I think any competent accountant would recommend the guaranteed money over the potential money. If Anthony is healthy this coming season, his accountant will recommend option #1. Certainty trumps uncertainty, especially when the difference is relatively small, as it is in this case. It will be up to Carmelo Anthony to weight his accountant’s advice against the advice he’s getting from Ruruland.

    25. DRed

      If following the Yankees has taught me anything it’s that you shouldn’t give big money long term contracts to people over 30.

    26. Eternal OptiKnist

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is totally disingenuous, par for the course on this site.Carmelo Anthony shot well for 27 games after the trade, and the last two years has essentially equaled his career 3P% rate. If you’re going to explain the rise for those 27 games, you have to be able to explain the regression, too.Every player has a ceiling. Arguing which players are inhibited from reaching that ceiling and why is so specious it’s not even worth our time.

      Frank: In classic THCJ form, this is totally disingenuous, par for the course for his posts.Did you even bother to look at the percentages before you made that statement?Carmelo’s Denver numbers:Total minutes played = 205213P made: 4103P attempted 13203P% 31.1%3PA/36 = 2.32Carmelo’s NYK numbers (total)Total minutes played: 53353P made: 2783P attempted: 7423P%: 37.53PA/36: 5.01Carmelo’s NYK numbers not counting those super-special first 27 games:Total minutes played: 43583P made: 2253P attempted: 6173P%: 363PA/36: 5.1So I think what you meant to say is that Melo increased his eFG on 3 pointers from 46.6% to 56.3% while increasing his 3P volume by 117%. And that every player has a ceiling, but that we don’t know what that ceiling will be in any given situation. It may be the same ceiling as before, or it might not. I think that’s what you meant to say.

      Haha, i win

    27. Eternal OptiKnist

      Frank: In classic THCJ form, this is totally disingenuous, par for the course for his posts.Did you even bother to look at the percentages before you made that statement?Carmelo’s Denver numbers:Total minutes played = 205213P made: 4103P attempted 13203P% 31.1%3PA/36 = 2.32Carmelo’s NYK numbers (total)Total minutes played: 53353P made: 2783P attempted: 7423P%: 37.53PA/36: 5.01Carmelo’s NYK numbers not counting those super-special first 27 games:Total minutes played: 43583P made: 2253P attempted: 6173P%: 363PA/36: 5.1So I think what you meant to say is that Melo increased his eFG on 3 pointers from 46.6% to 56.3% while increasing his 3P volume by 117%. And that every player has a ceiling, but that we don’t know what that ceiling will be in any given situation. It may be the same ceiling as before, or it might not. I think that’s what you meant to say.

      Thanks Franky. Busy day at work and i didnt have time to reply!

    28. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Frank: In classic THCJ form, this is totally disingenuous, par for the course for his posts.

      Did you even bother to look at the percentages before you made that statement?

      Carmelo’s Denver numbers:
      Total minutes played = 20521
      3P made: 410
      3P attempted 1320
      3P% 31.1%
      3PA/36 = 2.32

      Carmelo’s NYK numbers (total)
      Total minutes played: 5335
      3P made: 278
      3P attempted: 742
      3P%: 37.5
      3PA/36: 5.01

      Carmelo’s NYK numbers not counting those super-special first 27 games:
      Total minutes played: 4358
      3P made: 225
      3P attempted: 617
      3P%: 36
      3PA/36: 5.1

      So I think what you meant to say is that Melo increased his eFG on 3 pointers from 46.6% to 56.3% while increasing his 3P volume by 117%.And that every player has a ceiling, but that we don’t know what that ceiling will be in any given situation. It may be the same ceiling as before, or it might not. I think that’s what you meant to say.

      Yeah, and you’re still comparing his “Denver” years to his “New York” years indisciminately. Adding in his abysmal years, notably 2006, means that you have to explain how he got to .371 in 2009 — REMEMBER, THIS IS BEFORE HE CAME TO NEW YORK — which is damn near exactly his efficiency here in New York. You really want to compare Carmelo Anthony from his rookie seasons to his years in New York and claim causality on the change in location. Totally and ridiculously specious, still.

      Stop calling checkmate when you’re, likewise, doing and saying nothing.

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