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Saturday, October 25, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Apr 19 2012)

  • [New York Newsday] Carmelo, Knicks jump on Nets early and hold on (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:32:37 EDT)
    The Knicks played their last game in New Jersey Wednesday night and had similar results as they have had at home lately, which was appropriate since they were treated as if they were the home team.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Playoff picture: 6th still remote possibility (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:46:35 EDT)
    The Celtics clinched the Atlantic Division title with their win Wednesday over the Magic, but they left the Knicks with a small window to catch Orlando for the sixth spot in the East.
    Orlando’s loss left the Magic with a 36-26 record, three games ahead of the Knicks (33-29) with four to play.
    Orlando’s magic number to freeze the Knicks out of the No. 6 seed is two.
    If Orlando wins twice, or New York loses twice, the Knicks will have no chance to finish in sixth.

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Melo hears "M-V-P!" chants in Jersey (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:09:32 EDT)
    Carmelo Anthony drilled a 3-pointer, turned and nodded in approval. He drilled another jumper and stuck his tongue out while he trotted down court. He played to the crowd and the crowd played back. It looked like he was playing at home.
    And it sounded like it, too.
    When Anthony stepped to the free throw line with a little more than four minutes remaining in the Knicks’ 104-95 win over the Nets on Wednesday night, the crowd rained down the “M-V-P!

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Best and worst case for Amare, Melo (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:03:01 EDT)

    Carmelo Anthony had another superb night on Wednesday.
    He hit his first six shots and finished with 33 points, topping the 30-point mark for the third straight game. He had 21 in the first quarter, just one fewer than the Nets, in a performance that left Tyson Chandler shaking his head.
    “He’s unbelievable,” he said.
    Making it even more unbelievable? Twenty-four hours earlier, Anthony put together a 35-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist outing against the Celtics.

  • [New York Times] Knicks 104, Nets 95: Knicks Beat Nets, Saying Goodbye to New Jersey (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:25:36 GMT)
    The Knicks moved four games over .500 for the first time this season and strengthened their bid for the seventh playoff spot by beating the Nets.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: Depleted Bulls Extend Bobcats’ Losing Streak to 18 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:15:02 GMT)
    If Charlotte (7-54) loses its final five games, it will finish with the worst winning percentage in N.B.A. history.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Takes a Look at Jersey Sponsorship (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:20:05 GMT)
    The recent presentation to the N.B.A.’s board of governors suggested that the league might become the first of the four established leagues in the United States to allow its players to wear advertising.

  • [New York Times] Celtics Dispel Magic to Claim Atlantic Crown (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 06:02:14 GMT)
    Paul Pierce nailed a vital jump shot in the closing seconds to ensure the Boston Celtics clinched the Atlantic Division title with a 102-98 win over the Orlando Magic on Wednesday.

  • [New York Times] Lakers Rout Warriors 99-87, Await Kobe’s Return (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 06:14:37 GMT)
    Kobe Bryant walked out of the visitor’s locker room to a few dozen fans waiting with hugs and handshakes for the Los Angeles Lakers’ star and a circle of reporters ready to stick a microphone near his face.

  • [New York Times] Splitter, Neal Lead Spurs Past Kings (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:55:54 GMT)
    Tiago Splitter and Gary Neal scored 17 points each, leading the San Antonio Spurs to a 127-102 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night for their fifth straight win.

  • [New York Times] Harden’s 40 Leads Thunder Past Phoenix 109-97 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:58:57 GMT)
    James Harden scored a career-high 40 points, including making 5 of 8 3-pointers, and the Oklahoma City Thunder dealt Phoenix a blow in its scramble to make the playoffs with a 109-97 victory over the Suns on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Harris Has 27 in Jazz’s 112-91 Win Over Blazers (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:47:09 GMT)
    Devin Harris had 27 points, including a career-high six 3-pointers, and the Utah Jazz continued to jockey for a playoff spot with a 112-91 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Knicks’ Mike Bibby Makes Contribution at Point Guard (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 07:09:07 GMT)
    At the tail end of an otherwise undistinguished season, Mike Bibby has stepped in with significant performances in two straight victories for the Knicks.

  • [New York Times] Martin Leads Clippers Past Nuggets 104-98 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:01:59 GMT)
    Kenyon Martin helped beat his old team with a tip-in and blocked shot in the final half-minute, leading the Los Angeles Clippers past the Denver Nuggets 104-98 on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Celtics Clinch Division Title With Win Over Magic (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 03:49:59 GMT)
    The Boston Celtics clinched the Atlantic Division title on Wednesday with a 102-98 win over the Orlando Magic with Paul Pierce nailing a crucial jump shot in the final seconds to seal the game.

  • [New York Times] Nowitzki Scores 35, Mavericks Beat Rockets 117-110 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:14:01 GMT)
    Dirk Nowitzki should have been tired after playing 96 minutes in consecutive overtime losses.

  • [New York Times] Pierce Leads Celtics to 102-98 Win Over Magic (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:26:15 GMT)
    Need a big basket? Give the ball to Paul Pierce. Sharp passes and solid foul shooting? He provides that, too.

  • [New York Times] Grizzlies Clinch Playoff Berth (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 02:53:09 GMT)
    Rudy Gay scored 26 points and Mike Conley added 20 as the Memphis Grizzlies clinched a playoff berth for the second straight season with a 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Hornets on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Argentina Plan Long Term-Sports Chief (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 02:40:58 GMT)
    Backed by unprecedented funding, Argentina can sow seeds of Olympic success in London this year looking to reap the rewards at the Rio de Janeiro Games in 2016, the government’s Sports Secretary Claudio Morresi told Reuters.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Cavaliers Continue Slide; Pistons Play for Pride (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 03:42:20 GMT)
    The Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons aren’t playoff-bound, but there still is something to play for: lottery ping-pong balls. The Cavaliers seem to be embracing the lottery more than the Pistons.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Chandler Could Make Some Knicks History (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 03:17:26 GMT)
    Tyson Chandler of the Knicks is a leading contender for the N.B.A.’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Waiting for Brown, S.M.U. Joins Legions of His Basketball Employers (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 03:23:18 GMT)
    Larry Brown has never been a long-term guy, to put it mildly, but that hasn’t seemed to stop suitors like S.M.U.

  • [New York Times] James Gets 28, Heat Roll Past Raptors 96-72 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 02:59:52 GMT)
    LeBron James wants some rest. He also wants to play.

  • [New York Times] Hawks Tune Up for Playoffs, Rout Pistons 116-84 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 02:44:08 GMT)
    Tracy McGrady led six players in double figures and the playoff-bound Atlanta Hawks built a 37-point lead in the first half on the way to a 116-84 rout of the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Times] Anthony Leads Knicks in Last Visit to New Jersey (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 02:08:01 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony scored 21 of his 33 points in the first quarter, and the New York Knicks beat the Nets 104-95 on Wednesday night in their last trip to New Jersey.

  • [New York Times] Holiday’s Hot Shooting Leads 76ers Over Cavs (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 01:49:57 GMT)
    Jrue Holiday made five 3-pointers and scored 19 of his 24 points in the third quarter as the Philadelphia 76ers kept their hold on the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot with a 103-87 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.

  • [New York Post] Smith, Novak cool off in Knicks’ win (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 02:52:44 -0500)
    The long-range shooting of Steve Novak and J.R. Smith carried the Knicks to their win over Boston Tuesday.
    But after going a combined 15-for-20 from behind the 3-point arc against the Celtics, they predictably came back to reality in Wednesday night’s 104-95 victory over the Nets in Newark…

  • [New York Post] Knicks prevail in final Jersey trip (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:05:31 -0500)
    The Knicks will miss this place.
    Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks ransacked and pillaged the sold-out Prudential Center last night with virtually all of the 18,711 fans reveling in the Knicks’ wire-to-wire 104-95 romp over the Nets in their last visit to Jersey.
    It better be different in Brooklyn…

  • [New York Post] Move to Brooklyn will help Knicks-Nets rivalry (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:40:46 -0500)
    Ok, show of hands:
    How many of you woke up depressed this morning because the reality hit you hard, sometime around 4 in the morning, that there will never be another Knicks-Nets game in New Jersey ever again?
    Anyone? Bueller?
    All caps? Italics?
    THERE WILL NEVER BE ANOTHER KNICKS-NETS GAME…

  • [New York Post] Knicks-Nets rivalry shifts from inter-state to intra-city (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:17:51 -0500)
    The New Jersey portion of the Knicks-Nets rivalry ended Wednesday night in Newark with the home team going without two major players, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez, without half its bench and, seemingly, without any of its fans.
    The rivalry â?? or what has passed for a rivalry â?? will continue next…

  • [New York Post] Woody keeps trust in bibby (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:17:51 -0500)
    Veteran Mike Bibby started last night against the Nets and it’s not inconceivable for interim coach Mike Woodson’s favorite son to be the starting point guard in the first round of the playoffs if Baron Davis breaks down.
    Bibby made a good case with his strong performance last…

  • [New York Post] Mase: Give Melo the damn ball (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:17:52 -0500)
    Even when Linsanity sent the rest of the Knicks into the background, Anthony Mason never forgot who mattered most. As much as the 45-year-old former Knicks forward admires Jeremy Lin as a person and a player, Mason said yesterday the former phenom’s knee injury and subsequent absence has been…

  • [New York Daily News] Melo and Knicks make themselves at home (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 07:42:32 GMT)
    The Knicks-Nets game Wednesday night became a simple math problem: One superstar beats zero. The Knicks had Carmelo Anthony, while the Nets played without Deron Williams, who was scratched.

  • [New York Daily News] Melo, Knicks drive by Nets, 104-95 (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 06:17:58 GMT)
    With the crowd chanting “M-V-P,â? Carmelo Anthony finished with 33 points in 34 minutes as the Knicks bid farewell to Springsteen and the Vince Lombardi rest stop by defeating the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets 104-95.

  • [New York Daily News] Virus bags Knicks’ Baron (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 05:07:41 GMT)
    Baron Davis, who has struggled through injury and illness all season, missed Wednesday night’s game with a stomach virus. The veteran point guard is expected to be available for Friday’s game in Cleveland.

  • [New York Daily News] Knick fans take over Jersey home (Thu, 19 Apr 2012 04:56:17 GMT)
    Mikhail Prokhorov once said he’d turn Knicks fans into Nets fans. It’s safe to say none of the thousands were swayed Wednesday night in Newark.

  • 292 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Thursday, Apr 19 2012)

    1. Brian Cronin

      Nope. Just a bunch of “likely to return” stories. Even the likely to return stuff, though, is sort of like “inching toward likely to return.” Really vague stuff.

    2. johnno

      I have a question — how come the narrative is always “Melo has only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once?” How come it is not, “George Karl is a pretty lousy coach. He’s had some really good teams and has only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once in the last ten years?” Look at last year — going into the playoffs, they were one of the hottest teams in the league — without Melo — and they crashed and burned in the playoffs. And how come the narrative is always, “Melo refused to play defense” and not “George Karl is a lousy defensive coach?” Melo is proving that he can play defense this year and the Melo-less Nuggets are in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency, after years of being a top 10 defensive team with Melo.

    3. TelegraphedPass

      This is going back a game, but I really liked Melo stopping Novak from celebrating during the Celt’s game. The narrative has been something along the lines of, “Melo cares more about himself than winning!” so it was nice to see him assert himself as a leader and be the voice of reason.

      I think the whole, “[X player] doesn’t have the heart to go all the way.” idea is ludicrous anyways, so that display of responsibility and tenacity meant a lot to me.

    4. Garson

      Saw this on Rotoworld: Cant say im surprised. Will this give us more felxibily with Novak? I think not as most we can offer is the mini mid level.

      J.R. Smith is expected to decline his player option and become a free agent.
      Smith had a player option built into his deal with the Knicks to protect himself in case he sputtered in New York, but he’s carved out a nice role in the rotation under Mike Woodson and will look to lock up a multi-year deal in the offseason. He’ll appeal to a handful of teams searching for a scoring punch in the second unit.

    5. villainx

      I’m hoping Lin and Amare (and Jeffries and Baron) can come back relatively productive and make a big push. This year feels like it’s going to be a great opportunity to make a push with the current roster. Next year should still be good, but with a couple of different pieces, and with our associated angst and expectations for those different players. But this year, with these players, I hope some thing special happens.

    6. massive

      That really sucks about JR Smith. Almost every championship team I can think of had a scoring punch coming off the bench, and that could have been his role here. It’s too bad Lin is getting our MLE this year.

    7. TelegraphedPass

      Garson,

      Yeah it seems like there isn’t any hope of retaining JR. I’m disappointed. JR, for all his warts, is the kind of player who can swing a series for a team with his streaky shooting. Plus, he’s just fun to root for.

      I can’t stress enough how much I want the Knicks to draft Marcus Denmon this summer. Can they buy up just to make sure they get him? Like whatever 2nd rounder we end up with plus $2m for the 39th or 40th overall pick?

    8. massive

      TelegraphedPass:
      Garson,

      Yeah it seems like there isn’t any hope of retaining JR. I’m disappointed. JR, for all his warts, is the kind of player who can swing a series for a team with his streaky shooting. Plus, he’s just fun to root for.

      I can’t stress enough how much I want the Knicks to draft Marcus Denmon this summer. Can they buy up just to make sure they get him? Like whatever 2nd rounder we end up with plus $2m for the 39th or 40th overall pick?

      I don’t think we have a pick in this year’s draft at all, but I agree on Marcus Denmon. I want him or Doron Lamb (who graduated HS with my brother at Bishop Loughlin).

    9. Brian Cronin

      Saw this on Rotoworld: Cant say im surprised. Will this give us more felxibily with Novak? I think not as most we can offer is the mini mid level.

      J.R. Smith is expected to decline his player option and become a free agent.
      Smith had a player option built into his deal with the Knicks to protect himself in case he sputtered in New York, but he’s carved out a nice role in the rotation under Mike Woodson and will look to lock up a multi-year deal in the offseason. He’ll appeal to a handful of teams searching for a scoring punch in the second unit.

      While obviously none of us would be shocked if that happened, at the same time, you’d like to see something other than “____ is expected” as a source, ya know?

    10. Garson

      TelegraphedPass:
      Garson,

      Yeah it seems like there isn’t any hope of retaining JR. I’m disappointed. JR, for all his warts, is the kind of player who can swing a series for a team with his streaky shooting. Plus, he’s just fun to root for.

      I can’t stress enough how much I want the Knicks to draft Marcus Denmon this summer. Can they buy up just to make sure they get him? Like whatever 2nd rounder we end up with plus $2m for the 39th or 40th overall pick?

      If we renounce JR… does this help us with Novak?

    11. Brian Cronin

      I don’t think we have a pick in this year’s draft at all, but I agree on Marcus Denmon. I want him or Doron Lamb (who graduated HS with my brother at Bishop Loughlin).

      The Knicks will have a second round pick in this year’s draft. They would only have lost it if it was #56-60, and it cannot be #56-60, so they’ll have it this year.

    12. Garson

      Brian Cronin: While obviously none of us would be shocked if that happened, at the same time, you’d like to see something other than “____ is expected” as a source, ya know?

      True True… they were just stating the obvious. He can surely get more on the open market … at this point i guess it comes down to his loyalty and how much he likes playing For Woodson. Although , Woodson is no certainty either.

    13. Brian Cronin

      I have a question — how come the narrative is always “Melo has only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once?” How come it is not, “George Karl is a pretty lousy coach. He’s had some really good teams and has only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once in the last ten years?” Look at last year — going into the playoffs, they were one of the hottest teams in the league — without Melo — and they crashed and burned in the playoffs. And how come the narrative is always, “Melo refused to play defense” and not “George Karl is a lousy defensive coach?” Melo is proving that he can play defense this year and the Melo-less Nuggets are in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency, after years of being a top 10 defensive team with Melo.

      Because George Karl has over 1,000 wins with a close to .600 winning percentage as a coach and has made the playoffs in 18 of the previous 19 seasons as a head coach. Whether it is fair or not (and believe me, I have plenty of complaints about George Karl as a head coach), he is not going to get blame from the media in a comparison with a player.

    14. Brian Cronin

      True True… they were just stating the obvious. He can surely get more on the open market … at this point i guess it comes down to his loyalty and how much he likes playing For Woodson. Although , Woodson is no certainty either.

      Yeah, geez, when we talk about all the uncertainty with the Knicks regarding their free agents, we forget sometimes that the coach is a free agent, too. Hopefully the Knicks can make it to the second round for Woodson’s sake. If they do, he’ll get the job next year definitely (I also think Game 6 of the first round against either Miami or Chicago gets him a job next year – I dunno if Game 6 against Indiana would do the same). And if he comes back, hopefully Smith will be swayed, as well (Smith just said the other day that this is the most fun he has had in his NBA career).

    15. TelegraphedPass

      Given Orlando’s recent history and needs, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they splurged on JR. Of course it would probably be a terrible idea for them and further exacerbate their cap situation, but anything they can do to keep Dwight around. If Dwight walks, that team is in some trubble.

    16. Brian Cronin

      Shit, I can’t believe Orlando is not over the luxury tax. I thought even with Arenas’ contract wiped off the books that they’d be over the luxury tax. But nope. So yeah, they would, in fact, be able to offer JR the full MLE this offseason.

    17. art vandelay

      Brian Cronin: Yeah, geez, when we talk about all the uncertainty with the Knicks regarding their free agents, we forget sometimes that the coach is a free agent, too. Hopefully the Knicks can make it to the second round for Woodson’s sake. If they do, he’ll get the job next year definitely (I also think Game 6 of the first round against either Miami or Chicago gets him a job next year – I dunno if Game 6 against Indiana would do the same). And if he comes back, hopefully Smith will be swayed, as well (Smith just said the other day that this is the most fun he has had in his NBA career).

      I think we also forget that the GM (Grunwald) is a free agent (or interim, at least)…..there is uncertainty everywhere surrounding this franchise…should be a very interesting offseason!

    18. Owen

      Ruruland:
      “Some of us actually watch these games. Raise your hand if you thought Harden would have one of the most efficient offensive seasons for a guard in the last two decades.”

      Since our bet (2/28/12)

      Carmelo 55.02% ts%.

      One more good game and he will go over league average for the season (league average has improved significantly over the last month.) Since March 26, the first game after Amare left the lineup, his TS% is exactly 60%. And yes, I am cherry picking that date because he has been incandescent since then.

      If you were wondering, yes, I do think the Carmelo of the last 13 games is an All-NBA player, although his rebounding has been a little light for a guy playing power forward.

      Harden 67% ts%

      Did I expect Harden to be the most efficient scorer in the NBA? No. He was a much better bet than Carmelo though.

    19. massive

      Woodson needs to be retained. We’re 15-5 under his coaching, going 7-4 against playoff teams, and playing without 2 of our top 3 guns for most of the stretch. He’s the right coach for this bunch of guys.

      Anybody think Carmelo Anthony played himself onto one of the All-NBA teams?

    20. TelegraphedPass

      massive: Woodson needs to be retained. We’re 15-5 under his coaching, going 7-4 against playoff teams, and playing without 2 of our top 3 guns for most of the stretch. He’s the right coach for this bunch of guys.Anybody think Carmelo Anthony played himself onto one of the All-NBA teams?

      If Melo finishes the season on this tear, I can’t see how he doesn’t make 3rd team. His reputation got him a starting spot on the All-Star team; I’d imagine it could do the same for the All-NBA. ESPECIALLY considering Philly’s fall from grace.

    21. Brian Cronin

      With the JR talk, a quick refresher on the Knicks’ free agent situation.

      The Knicks will have eight possible free agents this offseason: Jeremy Lin, JR Smith, Steve Novak, Baron Davis, Jared Jeffries, Mike Bibby, Landry Fields and Bill Walker.

      To sign these eight players, here are their options:

      1. For JR Smith, they have a $2.5 player option for him for next year. That is his choice to use it or not. If he does, then the following offseason, the Knicks will be able to sign him to a five-year deal for the MLE without worrying about their cap.
      2. For Fields and Walker, the Knicks can go over the cap to re-sign them without affecting their cap (because the Knicks have full Bird Rights on Walker and Early Bird Rights on Fields). So what they do with these two guys (if they even want to re-sign Walker) has no effect on their other free agents.
      3. For the other players, the Knicks have available to them the following:
      a) The $5 million exception
      b) the $2 million exception
      c) the ability to give any of their free agents a 20% raise

      Lin is obviously going to get 3a. They’ll try to use 3b on Novak. That leaves just 20% raises for Davis, Jeffries and Bibby (if they want Bibby back, that is).

      They could also give JR or Novak the $5 million exception (they won’t, but it is an option).

      They can also sign any veteran free agent for the vet minimum without it affecting their cap (this is how they signed Novak, Jeffries, Bibby and Davis). I am sure there will be some decent players out there who will want to play with the Knicks next season. Heck, just look at what the Knicks did for Novak’s value.

    22. Brian Cronin

      I think we also forget that the GM (Grunwald) is a free agent (or interim, at least)…..there is uncertainty everywhere surrounding this franchise…should be a very interesting offseason!

      True, but I think Grunwald has a ton more security than anyone else. There’s no way they’ll fire him. They might hire another GM (like a coach/GM combo) but they won’t fire him. And since he is only the interim GM, I don’t think he would quit if they did replace him (unlike Woodson, who is either going to be the coach for the Knicks next year or a coach somewhere else). I don’t think there is a coach/GM combo that they’d replace Grunwald with, so I think he is definitely coming back as GM next year, but there is at least a chance he could be replaced.

    23. johnno

      That is exactly my point — he makes the playoffs almost every year but has done NOTHING in the playoffs in the last 10-15 years. His career playoff winning percentage is 43% (40% if you take out the one good run he had about 20 years ago). And he has had some REALLY good teams (pre-Melo) knocked out in the first or second round — 63 and 57 win teams in ’94 and ’95 went out in the first round and a 61 win team went out in the second round in ’98. Face it — most members of the media unfairly paint Melo in a bad light. For example — last year in the pre-season, Melo apparently quietly went to management before the season started and told them that he wouldn’t sign an extension with them. He then kept his mouth shut for months and played hard. Management could have traded him in the pre-season, but they dragged the trade talks out and dragged them out and dragged them out until they got a really good package in return — and virtually EVERYONE trashed Melo — yet no one trashed Chris Bosh for jerking his team around for a year and then leaving the Raptors high and dry.

      Brian Cronin: Because George Karl has over 1,000 wins with a close to .600 winning percentage as a coach and has made the playoffs in 18 of the previous 19 seasons as a head coach. Whether it is fair or not (and believe me, I have plenty of complaints about George Karl as a head coach), he is not going to get blame from the media in a comparison with a player.

    24. Owen

      johnno:
      I have a question — how come the narrative is always “Melo has only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once?”How come it is not, “George Karl is a pretty lousy coach.He’s had some really good teams and has only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once in the last ten years?”Look at last year — going into the playoffs, they were one of the hottest teams in the league — without Melo — and they crashed and burned in the playoffs.And how come the narrative is always, “Melo refused to play defense” and not “George Karl is a lousy defensive coach?”Melo is proving that he can play defense this year and the Melo-less Nuggets are in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency, after years of being a top 10 defensive team with Melo.

      None of the top seven minute getters for the Nuggets this year play center. Nene was hurt most of the season. Anderson has battled injuries. Mozgov has battled injuries. Gallo has battled injuries. Faried was plugged in late and doesn’t play much defense anyway apparently.

      Decomposing their defense, they have actually been strong in three of the four factors. But their efg% allowed has been abysmal, 27th in the league, just ahead of the Bobcats.

      They still are the 12th best team in the league by efficiency differential, though they are still in a dogfight to make the playoffs out West.

    25. massive

      I’m hoping Jason Kidd comes here to finish his career. He’d be a really good mentor for Jeremy Lin, and he’d definitely get playing time here. He even said he plans on playing next season, so I think he’d take the vet’s min to pass the ball to Melo, Stat, Chandler, Shump, and maybe Smith if he picks up his player option.

    26. Brian Cronin

      yet no one trashed Chris Bosh for jerking his team around for a year and then leaving the Raptors high and dry.

      Chris Bosh is not nearly as famous as Melo. Bosh was jerking the Raptors around while the greatest player in the NBA was doing the same thing to Cleveland, so all the eyes were on Lebron. When Melo had his stuff, he was center stage. Just like Dwight Howard is now center stage (D-Will thanks you very much for that, Dwight!). But when people actually cared enough to write about Bosh, he did get trashed the same as everyone else. And Bosh got a lot of crap from writers for his willingness to not even be Robin to another player’s Batman, but, like, Alfred the Butler to two other players’ Batman and Robin.

    27. JK47

      If Smith and Novak both leave we will be utterly bereft of quality outside shooting. For all of JR’s streakiness he has still been the teams second best three-point bomber.

      There aren’t very many good options for three-point shooters that fall into our price range. Maybe Marco Belinelli. The Knicks are going to have to get creative.

    28. massive

      Brian Cronin: Chris Bosh is not nearly as famous as Melo. Bosh was jerking the Raptors around while the greatest player in the NBA was doing the same thing to Cleveland, so all the eyes were on Lebron. When Melo had his stuff, he was center stage. Just like Dwight Howard is now center stage (D-Will thanks you very much for that, Dwight!). But when people actually cared enough to write about Bosh, he did get trashed the same as everyone else. And Bosh got a lot of crap from writers for his willingness to not even be Robin to another player’s Batman, but, like, Alfred the Butler to two other players’ Batman and Robin.

      Bosh is more like Catwoman than Alfred the Butler.

    29. Brian Cronin

      I’m hoping Jason Kidd comes here to finish his career. He’d be a really good mentor for Jeremy Lin, and he’d definitely get playing time here. He even said he plans on playing next season, so I think he’d take the vet’s min to pass the ball to Melo, Stat, Chandler, Shump, and maybe Smith if he picks up his player option.

      Yeah, I could definitely see that. I’d much rather Jason Kidd with a fork in his back to Mike Bibby with a fork in his back.

    30. art vandelay

      Brian Cronin: True, but I think Grunwald has a ton more security than anyone else. There’s no way they’ll fire him. They might hire another GM (like a coach/GM combo) but they won’t fire him.And since he is only the interim GM, I don’t think he would quit if they did replace him (unlike Woodson, who is either going to be the coach for the Knicks next year or a coach somewhere else). I don’t think there is a coach/GM combo that they’d replace Grunwald with, so I think he is definitely coming back as GM next year, but there is at least a chance he could be replaced.

      No, I wasn’t saying that there was a doubt whether he would return, but there certainly is the possibility he is not the top dog in the front office come next year…Allan Houston could be made President or GM (since Dolan loves him, I think this would be a bad move based on the adroit moves Grunwald has made so far), they could promote Warkentien, or hire someone from outside to be the chief decision-maker….just saying Grunwald may not necessarily by the GM next season, as he might return to his old role as senior VP of Bball Ops or whatever it was exactly.

    31. Brian Cronin

      Oh yeah, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree there is some uncertainty there, although I find it hard to believe they’d dump him for anyone in house after the year he just had (Lin alone should do it, ya know?). Someone out of house? Possibly (depending on who the someone is, of course).

    32. ephus

      Do the Knicks have Early Bird rights on Jeffries? He was signed for part of last year, and all of this year, and was never waived.

    33. Frank

      I would sort of be surprised if Orlando made a run at JR – they have Richardson already signed to a long-term deal and need to probably give Ryan Anderson a significant pay bump (which will probably put them over the lux tax). They could jettison Redick (his 6M is non guaranteed) but I’m not totally sure dumping Redick to sign JR to a long-term deal is a good idea.

      I just hope hope hope that JR is having such a good time and that he loves Woody so much that he agrees to take that option year. It’d be a big risk for him though.

      I honestly think regardless of what happens in the playoffs, we should resign Grunwald and Woodson. I am very impressed with their work this year, and there is no shame in losing to battle-tested teams like Miami or Chicago with 2 of your top 5-6 players injured/playing hurt. Sure a 4-0 or 4-1 series loss would hurt, but I think they have earned a chance to run the franchise for a few more years.

    34. JK47

      Denver’s defense is bad because they do a horrible job of defending the perimeter. They allow the worst 3-point percentage in the league as well as the most attempts.

      When you look at their perimeter defenders it makes sense– Lawson is a midget, Afflalo’s defense is overrated, Harringon and Gallinari do not close out well and Andre Miller is old.

    35. Frank

      ephus:
      Do the Knicks have Early Bird rights on Jeffries?He was signed for part of last year, and all of this year, and was never waived.

      That’s a great question. I would think he would. I’ll ask Larry Coon on twitter, hopefully he replies.

    36. art vandelay

      JK47:
      If Smith and Novak both leave we will be utterly bereft of quality outside shooting.For all of JR’s streakiness he has still been the teams second best three-point bomber.

      There aren’t very many good options for three-point shooters that fall into our price range.Maybe Marco Belinelli.The Knicks are going to have to get creative.

      The goal should somehow be to retain 2 out of the 3 of Lin, Novak and JR Smith, or essential Lin + one of the other 2….I think having all 3 back is looking unrealistic from a financial standpoint….any other player on Knicks who will be a FA (Baron, Jeffries, Bibby, even Fields) to my mind is expendable/replaceable at low cost to the team’s expected performance next season. Jeffries would probably come back for the 20% raise since he seems to love NY, unless he chases MDA to some other city if another team hired MDA for next season.

    37. ephus

      massive:
      I’m hoping Jason Kidd comes here to finish his career. He’d be a really good mentor for Jeremy Lin, and he’d definitely get playing time here. He even said he plans on playing next season, so I think he’d take the vet’s min to pass the ball to Melo, Stat, Chandler, Shump, and maybe Smith if he picks up his player option.

      Kidd has already been reported as wanting to stay with Dallas as first pg off the bench, if they bring in a new starting PG (a.k.a. Deron Williams).

    38. Brian Cronin

      Kidd has already been reported as wanting to stay with Dallas as first pg off the bench, if they bring in a new starting PG (a.k.a. Deron Williams).

      I can totally see that, but would he want to stay if he was behind D-Will and Roddy B?

    39. Brian Cronin

      My belief on Jeffries is that the Knicks renounced his Bird Rights to get far enough under the cap to sign Chandler, as they figured (justifiably at the time) that it would not be an issue as he wouldn’t ever need more than the vet minimum to return him to the team going forward.

    40. massive

      You know, I really don’t think Chicago is battle-tested. They only played 1 good team in the playoffs last year, and then they were demolished.

    41. art vandelay

      Brian Cronin:
      My belief on Jeffries is that the Knicks renounced his Bird Rights to get far enough under the cap to sign Chandler, as they figured (justifiably at the time) that it would not be an issue as he wouldn’t ever need more than the vet minimum to return going forward.

      He has had his best season as Knick for sure, but do we really believe Jeffries is worth more than the vet’s min (or vet’s min +20%) going forward?

    42. jon abbey

      I personally hate talking about next season when the possibilities left for this season are so exciting, but you heard this here first:

      it looks like with Howard’s injury, now Tyson Chandler will be on the Olympic team along with Melo this summer. this will almost certainly have a hangover effect at the start of next season, and will mess up our first month or two.

    43. massive

      art vandelay: He has had his best season as Knick for sure, but do we really believe Jeffries is worth more than the vet’s min (or vet’s min +20%) going forward?

      I don’t think Jeffries believes he’s worth more than the vet’s min. Besides, at the Knicks season ticket holders event (where Landry Fields was singing), he stated he’d do whatever it took to stay in New York, and that he was a New Yorker now. I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

    44. Brian Cronin

      He has had his best season as Knick for sure, but do we really believe Jeffries is worth more than the vet’s min (or vet’s min +20%) going forward?

      Well, it’s all relative, right? For instance, Matt Carroll has a $3.5 million player option for next season. Jeffries is a lot better than Matt Carroll. So yeah, if the Knicks did have Jeffries’ Early Bird rights, he’d be “worth” paying more than the vet minimum.

    45. PC

      Is spending any money on Fields a waste? He seems to fragile to ever be a real contributor.

      I read somewhere (maybe Hahn’s twitter) that the Heat opened the game with talking immense shit to him. The league has to know he doesn’t want to touch the ball anymore. And he shoot like my old high school coach in rebounding drills.

    46. Brian Cronin

      I personally hate talking about next season when the possibilities left for this season are so exciting, but you heard this here first:

      it looks like with Howard’s injury, now Tyson Chandler will be on the Olympic team along with Melo this summer. this will almost certainly have a hangover effect at the start of next season, and will mess up our first month or two.

      That’s so hilarious cynical of you.

      The hilarious part is that is exactly what I thought when I saw that news, as well.

      Man, we really are a tortured fan base.

    47. Brian Cronin

      Is spending any money on Fields a waste? He seems to fragile to ever be a real contributor.

      He’s a restricted free agent. So they can keep him next year for a $1 million bucks (provided no one signs him to an offer sheet). It’d be hard to pass up on that. They’re paying Douglas more than double that as a flier next year, so I’d imagine they’d do the same with Fields.

    48. Frank

      I think a healthy JJ is worth the biannual exception at least. A healthy JJ that would dunk the freaking ball instead of throwing up weak layups that roll out would be worth maybe a mini-midlevel.

    49. Brian Cronin

      I think a healthy JJ is worth the biannual exception at least. A healthy JJ that would dunk the freaking ball instead of throwing up weak layups that roll out would be worth maybe a mini-midlevel.

      I think that is a fair assessment.

    50. Frank

      I think you need to resign Landry even if his shot looks worse than Joakim Noah’s. Give him 3 years for 3.5-4M total (so his # comes off the cap the same year as Melo and Amare), maybe with team options on year 2 and 3, and hope that an entire offseason and training camp is enough to fix a shot that wasn’t broken before. If he can even be an average 3 point shooter his value goes way up because his drive game will be even better if defenders need to run him off the line. He’s a very good passer, a passable defender for the most part, and moves well without the ball. His inability to shoot infects his whole game, though.

      I think Landry would take it because of 1) loyalty, 2) NYK will be a fun team to be on, and 3) no one else is going give him more than the minimum given how awful he has been this year. Especially with team options, it would be a low-risk medium reward proposition.

    51. Brian Cronin

      Right, Frank, but in that case, why not just give him the qualifying offer of $1 million and see what happens? If someone signs him to a reasonable offer sheet, match it. Otherwise, let him go. I bet if they offer him the $1 million qualifying offer, he wouldn’t get a better offer sheet. Then they’d have his full Bird rights the following season if he turns things around.

    52. PC

      re Landry – seems like money (no matter how little) that we can spend on someone else. Its a waste of a roster spot. His jumper has no chance of recovery, in my opinion. Has there ever been a solid three point shooter and FT guy who lost it completely (and by completely I mean aiming flatlined darts at the basket) and then figure it out again….

    53. Frank

      Brian Cronin:
      Right, Frank, but in that case, why not just give him the qualifying offer of $1 million and see what happens? If someone signs him to a reasonable offer sheet, match it. Otherwise, let him go. I bet if they offer him the $1 million qualifying offer, he wouldn’t get a better offer sheet. Then they’d have his full Bird rights the following season if he turns things around.

      with a 3 year deal with 1-2 years essentially non-guaranteed (team options), you’d have him locked in at a below-market contract if he overcomes this weird Steve Sax Knoblauch shooting thing. Just signing him to a 1 year deal (and getting his bird rights) would just mean that we would have to spend more on him going forward (which wouldn’t matter for the cap but WOULD matter for the lux tax).

      those are my off-the-top-of-my-head thoughts anyway.

    54. Brian Cronin

      But in that scenario, what is Fields’ motivation for accepting such a deal? Wouldn’t it make more sense for him to just take the qualifying offer and try to earn a better deal the next season? The guaranteed money would be the same, so the risk would be the same, while the reward would only be on the Knicks’ side.

    55. TelegraphedPass

      PC: re Landry – seems like money (no matter how little) that we can spend on someone else. Its a waste of a roster spot. His jumper has no chance of recovery, in my opinion. Has there ever been a solid three point shooter and FT guy who lost it completely (and by completely I mean aiming flatlined darts at the basket) and then figure it out again….

      I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a waste of a roster spot. This year has been rough for a lot of guys, and there isn’t strong evidence to suggest that he can’t regress back to being a three point threat. Since it doesn’t affect our other signings, why not bring him back?

    56. Frank

      PC:
      re Landry – seems like money (no matter how little) that we can spend on someone else. Its a waste of a roster spot. His jumper has no chance of recovery, in my opinion. Has there ever been a solid three point shooter and FT guy who lost it completely (and by completely I mean aiming flatlined darts at the basket) and then figure it out again….

      I kinda think that if your only job in the world is to be a good basketball player and you have time/resources to shoot 1000 shots a day, you can make it better. I know it’s probably harder with a mental block like this prob is for Landry, but it’s not like we’re giving him the MLE – I’m just suggesting something barely more than the vet’s minimum.

    57. Frank

      Brian Cronin:
      But in that scenario, what is Fields’ motivation for accepting such a deal? Wouldn’t it make more sense for him to just take the qualifying offer and try to earn a better deal the next season? The guaranteed money would be the same, so the risk would be the same, while the reward would only be on the Knicks’ side.

      Yeah, you’re probably right. Maybe 3 years, 4M with 2 years guaranteed and a player option for year 3? And if he outplays his contract, it’s only 1 more year he’s stuck.

      For a guy who is basically playing himself out of the league right now, 2 guaranteed years might be enough to get him to bite. He might be playing the worst of any rotation player on the playoff teams. Except for Duhon, but that’s not saying much.

    58. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, you’re probably right. Maybe 3 years, 4M with 2 years guaranteed and a player option for year 3? And if he outplays his contract, it’s only 1 more year he’s stuck.

      For a guy who is basically playing himself out of the league right now, 2 guaranteed years might be enough to get him to bite. He might be playing the worst of any rotation player on the playoff teams. Except for Duhon, but that’s not saying much.

      Sure, I could see something like that working for him. The wild card, of course, is that we have no idea if other teams feel that they can “fix” him. If you’re a team who thinks you can get his shot working, there are plenty of places he’d fit in. So if a team signs him to an offer sheet for something like, I dunno, two years/$6 million (or whatever), it’ll be interesting what the Knicks do. I imagine they’d match, if only because it won’t affect their cap (besides the luxury tax, but Dolan wipes his ass with $100 bills, I believe, so that’s not a major concern). But it’d be interesting.

    59. JC Knickfan

      Brian Cronin:
      My belief on Jeffries is that the Knicks renounced his Bird Rights to get far enough under the cap to sign Chandler, as they figured (justifiably at the time) that it would not be an issue as he wouldn’t ever need more than the vet minimum to return him to the team going forward.

      JJ is going to 31 and going 11 year in NBA next year. I pretty sure he can only get vet minimum due to him getting injury so frequently. Every team could use 3pt shooter (novak) and charge master (JJ). It very important for Knicks get young 3rd string PF/C combo who probably will see significant minutes year. I rather just keep Melo at 3 and play larger lineup. I’m not fan of Jort that for sure.

    60. Jafa

      @25:

      I know its late but thank you very much Brian for outlining our options (I know I can always count on this site for insight and clarity). Based on that, I would do the following:

      1. Try to convince JR to pick up his option and sell him on the fact that he will be playing on a championship contender, playing for a coach he likes and with Melo, and will be way more valuable in free agency next year as the 6th man on a championship team (or a team that just made the finals). If he does not bite then wish him well.
      2. Sign Lin to the MLE (fills our starting PG/3rd scoring option need and helps cushion the loss of JR’s scoring if he does not exercise his option. Plus he’s a cash cow and could be a core rebuilding piece after our 3 year window.
      3. Sign Novak to the $2 M exception (unless we can find another 3 point specialist PF for the minimum, since we seem to find one each year like Extra E from last year).
      4. Offer Billy Walker and Jared Jefferies veteran minimum 1 year deals.
      5. Let Fields walk. Shumpert can assume the starting SG role.
      6. Let Baron Davis and Mike Bibby walk. Use Toney Douglas, Jerome James and Josh Harrelson as trade bait to get a better back up PG (preferably one that give us a scoring punch off the bench) or scan the free agency bargain bin for someone who will take the minimum.

      So that’s a rotation of:

      PG: Lin, TD (or whomever we trade for or get in FA for the minimum)
      SG: Shumpert, Walker
      SF: Melo
      PF: STAT, Novak
      C: Chandler, JJ

      Horrible bench I know but I don’t think we have many options.

    61. Brian Cronin

      JJ is going to 31 and going 11 year in NBA next year. I pretty sure he can only get vet minimum due to him getting injury so frequently. Every team could use 3pt shooter (novak) and charge master (JJ). It very important for Knicks get young 3rd string PF/C combo who probably will see significant minutes year. I rather just keep Melo at 3 and play larger lineup. I’m not fan of Jort that for sure.

      Oh yeah, sure, I’d never dream of giving Jeffries something like the $2 million over any of the other Knick free agents. I’m just talking in general terms what he is “worth.” I would not actually give him the $2 million exception (since I’d rather have Novak and even if Novak says no, there are good players who would take the $2 million from the Knicks).

    62. Jafa

      massive:
      I’m hoping Jason Kidd comes here to finish his career. He’d be a really good mentor for Jeremy Lin, and he’d definitely get playing time here. He even said he plans on playing next season, so I think he’d take the vet’s min to pass the ball to Melo, Stat, Chandler, Shump, and maybe Smith if he picks up his player option.

      Why do that when you can back up a better PG in Derron Williams, stay with the same team that you won a ring with, don’t uproot your family at the tail end of your career and possibly slide right into an assistant coaching position in Dallas (if that’s what he wants)?

    63. art vandelay

      PC:
      re Landry – seems like money (no matter how little) that we can spend on someone else. Its a waste of a roster spot. His jumper has no chance of recovery, in my opinion. Has there ever been a solid three point shooter and FT guy who lost it completely (and by completely I mean aiming flatlined darts at the basket) and then figure it out again….

      If we weren’t already over the salary cap, I would agree with this, but not signing Fields to the QO for $1 million does not, in actuality, free up any additional salary space to sign another FA since they will be over cap and only really have the exceptions to play with…for a team worried about pay luxury tax this might be a concern, but Dolan has never shown a fear of paying $125 Million for teams that win 20 games in the past so I doubt he would begin to change his modus operandi now. I think it is worth retaining a player who has shown eminent promise at times (moreso last season and at times on occasion this season)….it is not like he never had a decent shot…he shot 37% from 3-point range last season. Taking a flier on a 23-year-old for $1 million when we wouldn’t save anything in terms of FA-space by not signing him seems like a pretty big no-brainer to me.

    64. Brian Cronin

      I was thinking the same response, AV, but I think he’s actually arguing more that he thinks the roster spot is wasted on Fields period, not so much the money. You know, he’d rather have Veteran X for the minimum than Fields for $1 million. I disagree, but it is a different argument from “we shouldn’t sign Fields because we need to free up salary space.”

    65. Jafa

      JK47:
      If Smith and Novak both leave we will be utterly bereft of quality outside shooting.For all of JR’s streakiness he has still been the teams second best three-point bomber.

      There aren’t very many good options for three-point shooters that fall into our price range.Maybe Marco Belinelli.The Knicks are going to have to get creative.

      When it comes to finding 3PT specialists, I trust the front office. Two years in a row they have found hidden gems to do that for us. It’s JR’s ability to create his own shot that I will miss the most if he leaves.

    66. Jafa

      ephus:
      Do the Knicks have Early Bird rights on Jeffries?He was signed for part of last year, and all of this year, and was never waived.

      I wouldn’t worry about Jefferies. He clearly likes us and I don’t think he would have a problem coming back for the veteran’s minimum.

    67. Brian Cronin

      Why do that when you can back up a better PG in Derron Williams, stay with the same team that you won a ring with, don’t uproot your family at the tail end of your career and possibly slide right into an assistant coaching position in Dallas (if that’s what he wants)?

      If he is the back-up, then of course he’ll stay. But wouldn’t Roddy B be the back-up?

    68. JC Knickfan

      Jafa:
      @25:

      Sign Novak to the $2.5 M exception (unless we can find another 3 point specialist PF for the minimum, since we seem to find one each year like Extra E from last year).

      Does any know how much Bi-annual exception is next year? I reading it’s only going to about 1.9 Million. Novak probably will get 3y 9million contract (Matt Bonner type deal). I just don’t see anyway to keep Novak given that he probably want financial security.

    69. Brian Cronin

      Does any know how much Bi-annual exception is next year? I reading it’s only going to about 1.9 Million. Novak probably will get 3y 9million contract (Matt Bonner type deal). I just don’t see anyway to keep Novak given that he probably want financial security.

      I don’t know for sure but it is definitely lower than $2.5 M (I actually edited Jafa’s post to fix that for him). The best guess is roughly $2 M.

    70. Frank

      RE: JJ – I think the most any other team would sign him for would be the biannual exception (~2M). It think the Knicks can still offer him a 20% raise on his current salary, which would be 1.2*1.229M = ~1.48M. Give him 2-3 years at that # (8% raises allowed/year) and he probably would take it. For a guy who has bounced around the league and has found a home here (and who has already made $40M in his career – thanks Isiah!), I think that’s good for everyone.

      FWIW, I think Novak has played himself out of NY if he so chooses. I would totally offer him the biannual exception for 12-13 with as many subsequent years as are allowed at the maximum raise and as player options. He would be taking a below-market contract and should be allowed both the security of a multi-year contract and the flexibility of player options.

    71. TelegraphedPass

      I feel like we’re overvaluing signing an over-the-hill vet like Kidd to “mentor” Lin. What is he supposed to teach Lin than common sense, video sessions, and google can’t?

      Kidd won’t stop Lin from turning the ball over. Jeremy doesn’t need Kidd to learn to go left.

      Do we have sufficient evidence to support the idea that signing a veteran will positively impact the development of a young PG?

    72. JC Knickfan

      Guys Knicks will resign Fields. They 15 roster spot and he still has upside if get his jumper shot back.
      They would match any offer sheet also as no team would make insane backloaded offer to him anyways.

    73. Jafa

      Brian Cronin: If he is the back-up, then of course he’ll stay. But wouldn’t Roddy B be the back-up?

      I don’t think they have much faith in Roddy B or he would be the starter right now over J Kidd. I think if they get DWill, they will trade Roddy B to add debth to their team (like someone to play Jet’s role or the role Odom was supposed to play for them).

    74. Brian Cronin

      I feel like we’re overvaluing signing an over-the-hill vet like Kidd to “mentor” Lin. What is he supposed to teach Lin than common sense, video sessions, and google can’t?

      Kidd won’t stop Lin from turning the ball over. Jeremy doesn’t need Kidd to learn to go left.

      Do we have sufficient evidence to support the idea that signing a veteran will positively impact the development of a young PG?

      I’m thinking of him as less of a mentor as much as he’d be a decent back-up point guard that they could get cheap.

    75. Brian Cronin

      Guys Knicks will resign Fields. They 15 roster spot and he still has upside if get his jumper shot back.
      They would match any offer sheet also as no team would make insane backloaded offer to him anyways.

      No team would make a backloaded offer, that’s true. But what if a team offered him the MLE? I doubt the Knicks would match that. I’m actually quite curious now as to how high an offer would have to be for the Knicks to match.

    76. iserp

      Well, veterans care about family, financial security, championships, legacy instead of about fame, girls, sports cars … It’s not so bad to have someone in the team that can be respected. Said that, i find Melo, Amare and Chandler truly professional.

      One question… how early can we offer an extension to JR? If he picks up his option an then signs an extension on september (with his early bird rights, that would amount to the MLE), he would not have time to injure himself…, so it would be more about leaving 2 million on the table than about financial security.

    77. Brian Cronin

      It think the Knicks can still offer him a 20% raise on his current salary, which would be 1.2*1.229M = ~1.48M. Give him 2-3 years at that # (8% raises allowed/year) and he probably would take it.

      Yeah, they’re allowed to offer any free agent a 20% raise, even non-Bird free agents. And I agree, I think Jeffries would take it, as well. The only way he’s not a Knick next year is if D’Antoni gets a job on a good team this offseason.

      FWIW, I think Novak has played himself out of NY if he so chooses. I would totally offer him the biannual exception for 12-13 with as many subsequent years as are allowed at the maximum raise and as player options. He would be taking a below-market contract and should be allowed both the security of a multi-year contract and the flexibility of player options.

      I sadly agree that he is likely gone. I mean, good for him, of course, but sad for us.

    78. Jafa

      Frank:
      FWIW, I think Novak has played himself out of NY if he so chooses.I would totally offer him the biannual exception for 12-13 with as many subsequent years as are allowed at the maximum raise and as player options. He would be taking a below-market contract and should be allowed both the security of a multi-year contract and the flexibility of player options.

      I would also say to Novak:

      “Look at what happened to Extra E when he left us for more money to join a team that did not run our type of offense that enabled him to flourish. You’ve bounced around the league looking for a team with an offensive system that suits your strengths while hiding your weaknesses, and a coach willing to give you playing time (even crunch time playing time) and teammates who would rather look to pass the ball to you on the break than try to go for an easy dunk. You’ve finally found that team and its us. Here’s $2 M and my realtors phone number. I’ll see you at training camp next year.”

    79. Frank

      Brian Cronin:
      I sadly agree that he is likely gone. I mean, good for him, of course, but sad for us.

      We should totally put Novak in touch with Shawne Williams, so he can see how well leaving a good situation for $ works out.

    80. Brian Cronin

      One question… how early can we offer an extension to JR? If he picks up his option an then signs an extension on september (with his early bird rights, that would amount to the MLE), he would not have time to injure himself…, so it would be more about leaving 2 million on the table than about financial security.

      You can’t sign an extension on a two-year deal. He wouldn’t be able to re-sign with the Knicks until next offseason. It definitely would be a scary situation for him, security-wise.

    81. Frank

      Jafa: I would also say to Novak:

      “Look at what happened to Extra E when he left us for more money to join a team that did not run our type of offense that enabled him to flourish.You’ve bounced around the league looking for a team with an offensive system that suits your strengths while hiding your weaknesses, and a coach willing to give you playing time (even crunch time playing time) and teammates who would rather look to pass the ball to you on the break than try to go for an easy dunk.You’ve finally found that team and its us.Here’s $2 M and my realtors phone number.I’ll see you at training camp next year.”

      lol great minds think alike.

    82. Shad0wF0x

      I was at the Nets game last and I have to say, I feel kinda bad for them. The Knicks fans clearly outnumbered the Nets fans.

    83. Frank

      Hey Brian – is there any limit to the amount of players you can use early bird or bird rights on? For example, if we somehow convinced both Novak and JR to stay, could we claim early bird rights on both and sign them both to MLE-level contracts next offseason?

    84. Brian Cronin

      I was at the Nets game last and I have to say, I feel kinda bad for them. The Knicks fans clearly outnumbered the Nets fans.

      I think a lot of that, though, has to do because they’re in their last year in New Jersey. Why would you support the team still if you’re a New Jersey native? I bet they will get more support once they’re in Brooklyn (while of course still getting a substantial amount of Knick fans at the game. I know I’ll be trying to get tickets to see the Knicks play them).

    85. Brian Cronin

      Hey Brian – is there any limit to the amount of players you can use early bird or bird rights on? For example, if we somehow convinced both Novak and JR to stay, could we claim early bird rights on both and sign them both to MLE-level contracts next offseason?

      No limit. That was actually something that the owners have tried to challenge often over the years (putting a limit on how many players you can use Bird rights on) but it has never passed (I presume because even the small market teams know they might need such a provision at some point in time).

    86. iserp

      Brian Cronin: You can’t sign an extension on a two-year deal. He wouldn’t be able to re-sign with the Knicks until next offseason. It definitely would be a scary situation for him, security-wise.

      Mmm… too bad. If that’s the situation, i find really hard that he doesn’t accept the MLE from any othe team. Something really good has to happen on the way (conference finals), to make him stay.

    87. JK47

      I’m sure Fields will once again find his form and become a top-10 player in all of basketball just like Dave Berri said he was last year.

    88. Brian Cronin

      Mmm… too bad. If that’s the situation, i find really hard that he doesn’t accept the MLE from any othe team. Something really good has to happen on the way (conference finals), to make him stay.

      Yeah, really, all we can hope is that he really, really likes playing for the Knicks. Because otherwise, the Knicks’ chances shouldn’t be that good logically. But hopefully his enjoyment trumps logic!

    89. TelegraphedPass

      iserp: Well, veterans care about family, financial security, championships, legacy instead of about fame, girls, sports cars … It’s not so bad to have someone in the team that can be respected. P>

      lolwut?

      I really don’t like the profiling that goes on regarding NBA players.

      Veterans don’t care about fame or girls? Really? Young players DON’T care about family, financial security, and championships?

    90. TelegraphedPass

      JK47: I’m sure Fields will once again find his form and become a top-10 player in all of basketball just like Dave Berri said he was last year.

      *presumptious sniff*

      Clearly you haven’t read The Layman’s Guide to Advanced Statistics.

    91. iserp

      TelegraphedPass: lolwut?

      I really don’t like the profiling that goes on regarding NBA players.

      Veterans don’t care about fame or girls? Really? Young players DON’T care about family, financial security, and championships?

      lolwut?

      The same could be said about everybody. Young people vs Old people. Haven’t you been young? were you the same guy? Didnt you get drunk in a terrible way you won’t repeat anymore?

    92. New Guy

      Is there any reason we couldn’t have tacked on a team option to Novak’s deal at the start of the year? Or Lin’s even? If we could have, it’s pretty crappy planning on our part, especially after just losing Shawne Williams due to the same crappy planning.

    93. Jafa

      *Hat tip* to Frank.

      Here’s my speech to JR to convince him to exercise his option:

      “You suffered for years under George Karl and the handcuffs he kept trying to put on you and your game (I remember one game when JR was lights out hot for Denver and the coach takes him out and then puts him back in for the last second shot. He promptly drains a 3 to send the game to OT *I think* and had this look on his face like “dude, stop playing with my emotions – either play me or sit me”).

      Back to my speech:

      “You suffered for years under George Karl and the handcuffs he kept trying to put on you and your game. Now you have a coach who will let you be you and just give you some guidance to be the best player you can be. He plays you more minutes than the starting SG, he trusts your instincts so much that he plays you in crunch time, the team’s star players don’t get mad at you when you shoot (even if your shot is not falling), and in NY you can get a shoe deal to make up for that extra $2.5 M for one year (ask Al Harrington – he got a shoe deal while he was here, and no, I’m not joking). You’ve got everything you need here. Do you really want to go somewhere else and try to “fit in” with a new coach and teammates or stay here where you already are comfortable? Pick up the option and help us get a ring. If you do that, Dolan himself will petition David Stern to create an exception that allowed him to give you as much money as your heart desires. And I’ll get a tattoo if that will make you happy. I’ll even let you pick out which one. Happy? Sign this and stay out of trouble until training camp”

    94. TelegraphedPass

      iserp: lolwut?The same could be said about everybody. Young people vs Old people. Haven’t you been young? were you the same guy? Didnt you get drunk in a terrible way you won’t repeat anymore?

      I understand that experience breeds responsibility in many people.

      That said, let’s not forget that Kidd was involved in spousal abuse scandals. Jeremy Lin, Landry Fields, Iman Shump, and Jorts have a squeaky clean history to my knowledge. I think there’s some stereotyping afoot.

    95. jon abbey

      JK47:
      I’m sure Fields will once again find his form and become a top-10 player in all of basketball just like Dave Berri said he was last year.

      the best part about that is he played a good chunk of last season at a similar level.

    96. TelegraphedPass

      New Guy: Is there any reason we couldn’t have tacked on a team option to Novak’s deal at the start of the year? Or Lin’s even? If we could have, it’s pretty crappy planning on our part, especially after just losing Shawne Williams due to the same crappy planning.

      It’s my understanding that when claiming a player off the waiver wire a team may only sign them for the length of their original deal.

    97. ruruland

      Frank:
      I would sort of be surprised if Orlando made a run at JR – they have Richardson already signed to a long-term deal and need to probably give Ryan Anderson a significant pay bump (which will probably put them over the lux tax).They could jettison Redick (his 6M is non guaranteed) but I’m not totally sure dumping Redick to sign JR to a long-term deal is a good idea.

      I just hope hope hope that JR is having such a good time and that he loves Woody so much that he agrees to take that option year. It’d be a big risk for him though.

      I honestly think regardless of what happens in the playoffs, we should resign Grunwald and Woodson. I am very impressed with their work this year, and there is no shame in losing to battle-tested teams like Miami or Chicago with 2 of your top 5-6 players injured/playing hurt.Sure a 4-0 or 4-1 series loss would hurt, but I think they have earned a chance to run the franchise for a few more years.

      JR has to be thinking of the deal after this deal. I don’t know how many coaches in this league are good fits for him — good teams I mean. I don’t know how many good teams have a 30 mpg role where he has total freedom, a coach who likes and supports him, a loyal friend, family nearby, and the best home crowd in the NBA with the most eyes (and JR is all about eyes)….

    98. Brian Cronin

      It’s my understanding that when claiming a player off the waiver wire a team may only sign them for the length of their original deal.

      You are correct.

    99. ruruland

      Jafa:
      *Hat tip* to Frank.

      Here’s my speech to JR to convince him to exercise his option:

      “You suffered for years under George Karl and the handcuffs he kept trying to put on you and your game (I remember one game when JR was lights out hot for Denver and the coach takes him out and then puts him back in for the last second shot.He promptly drains a 3 to send the game to OT *I think* and had this look on his face like “dude, stop playing with my emotions – either play me or sit me”).

      Back to my speech:

      “You suffered for years under George Karl and the handcuffs he kept trying to put on you and your game.Now you have a coach who will let you be you and just give you some guidance to be the best player you can be.He plays you more minutes than the starting SG, he trusts your instincts so much that he plays you in crunch time, the team’s star players don’t get mad at you when you shoot (even if your shot is not falling), and in NY you can get a shoe deal to make up for that extra $2.5 M for one year (ask Al Harrington – he got a shoe deal while he was here, and no, I’m not joking).You’ve got everything you need here.Do you really want to go somewhere else and try to “fit in” with a new coach and teammates or stay here where you already are comfortable? Pick up the option and help us get a ring.If you do that, Dolan himself will petition David Stern to create an exception that allowed him to give you as much money as your heart desires.And I’ll get a tattoo if that will make you happy.I’ll even let you pick out which one.Happy?Sign this and stay out of trouble until training camp”

      Al Harrington really got a shoe deal?

      Nice post. I’m sure Grunwald and Warkentein have been working hard on him. The dad is the only guy I’d worry about.

    100. New Guy

      ruruland: JR has to be thinking of the deal after this deal.

      But if he picks up his option with us, the deal after this deal can’t be more than the full mid-level deal he’s likely going to be offered this summer from another team.

    101. ruruland

      Owen:
      Ruruland:
      “Some of us actually watch these games. Raise your hand if you thought Harden would have one of the most efficient offensive seasons for a guard in the last two decades.”

      Since our bet (2/28/12)

      Carmelo 55.02% ts%.

      One more good game and he will go over league average for the season (league average has improved significantly over the last month.) Since March 26, the first game after Amare left the lineup, his TS% is exactly 60%. And yes, I am cherry picking that date because he has been incandescent since then.

      If you were wondering, yes, I do think the Carmelo of the last 13 games is an All-NBA player, although his rebounding has been a little light for a guy playing power forward.

      Harden67% ts%

      Did I expect Harden to be the most efficient scorer in the NBA? No. He was a much better bet than Carmelo though.

      Yeah, I was 7 or 8 games off it looks like. I predicted he’d be a 60 TS player in the second half and it looks like he’ll come up a little short of that.

      I thought Harden would regress some. I knew that Melo would at some point blow up.

    102. Brian Cronin

      The big “fear” we have is that JR, like Novak, will price himself out of the market by playing really well. If JR is, say, the Knicks’ #2 scorer in the playoffs, will there be a team that will exceed the MLE for him this offseason? If so, how can he possibly turn that down? The MLE, I can see him possibly saying no. But more than the MLE?

    103. ruruland

      New Guy: But if he picks up his option with us, the deal after this deal can’t be more than the full mid-level deal he’s likely going to be offered this summer from another team.

      Yeah, I mean, Knicks work is cut-out selling that to him (his father). The deal after the MLE could be the big, big one (a post-Amar’e deal when he still has a 3-4 solid years left). If he’s say, a really good fourth or fifth player on a great team that could be a big deal.

      How much was Harrington’s shoe deal?

    104. Z

      Frank:
      I think a healthy JJ is worth the biannual exception at least. A healthy JJ that would dunk the freaking ball instead of throwing up weak layups that roll out would be worth maybe a mini-midlevel.

      To put “being a Knicks fan” in perspective for Ruru and other new arrivals: we are actually worrying about whether we can afford to KEEP Jared Jeffries at the same time that Houston is taking our 1st round draft pick for our DUMPING of Jared Jeffries.

      (And y’all wonder why a few good games by Carmelo doesn’t quite do it for us :)

    105. johnlocke

      Lin not coming back, Amare will come back, boot Fields out of line up even if he plays at his bad pre-All Star Game level. I have a gut feeling he will be in BEAST mode.

      villainx:
      I’m hoping Lin and Amare (and Jeffries and Baron) can come back relatively productive and make a big push. This year feels like it’s going to be a great opportunity to make a push with the current roster. Next year should still be good, but with a couple of different pieces, and with our associated angst and expectations for those different players. But this year, with these players, I hope some thing special happens.

    106. johnlocke

      Yes on Woody. No on Melo.

      massive:
      Woodson needs to be retained. We’re 15-5 under his coaching, going 7-4 against playoff teams, and playing without 2 of our top 3 guns for most of the stretch. He’s the right coach for this bunch of guys.

      Anybody think Carmelo Anthony played himself onto one of the All-NBA teams?

    107. Frank

      This Dwight Howard stuff is really amazing – Zach Lowe just tweeted that DH12 apparently told the OWNER that he wouldn’t play for SVG again even if healthy.

      The thing that tells you this is actually true is that this kind of “leak” doesn’t help anyone. It only makes Dwight look like even more of a baby than everyone already thinks he is. And for the Magic, the more of this locker-room cancer stuff comes out, the worse their leverage is in any trade discussions next year.

      That whole herniated disc thing didn’t make much sense anyway. Obviously here are different levels of “herniation” but Baron was out for 3+ months with his, and Amare had a less severe “bulging” disk and was out 2-4 weeks. But DH12 was out 12-14 DAYS? Conveniently right when the playoffs start?

      Makes you feel like ORL should have just dumped him this year for the best deal regardless of the fact he is the best center in the league.

    108. Z

      re:Fields’s future–

      I’m a big Fields fan, but at this point I’d have to think the FO should trade him for a daft pick if they can. It’s been a long time since he has had an extended period of good play (over a year), and the future is clearly Shumpert.

      Ithink Fields has enough perceived value to get a decent pick for. He was 4th in ROY voting last year and is a starter on a playoff team. (and It seems every year there is a player dealt for a 1st rounder that makes you say WHAAT?! (Marcus Williams, anybody?))

    109. Frank

      Z:
      re:Fields’s future–

      I’m a big Fields fan, but at this point I’d have to think the FO should trade him for a daft pick if they can. It’s been a long time since he has had an extended period of good play (over a year), and the future is clearly Shumpert.

      Ithink Fields has enough perceived value to get a decent pick for. He was 4th in ROY voting last year and is a starter on a playoff team. (and It seems every year there is a player dealt for a 1st rounder that makes you say WHAAT?! (Marcus Williams, anybody?))

      Hmm. I don’t think anyone is giving anything of use away for a guy who totally overachieved in 1/2 of his first season, and who has since played like one of the worst players in the NBA. Maybe a bottom of the barrel 2nd round pick, but is that even worth it?

    110. JC Knickfan

      New Guy:
      Is there any reason we couldn’t have tacked on a team option to Novak’s deal at the start of the year?Or Lin’s even?If we could have, it’s pretty crappy planning on our part, especially after just losing Shawne Williams due to the same crappy planning.

      Both Novak and Lin where pickup on waivers not FA.

    111. gjknick

      It’s just so damn frustrating!!!! We finally have a roster that could do some major damage but do to coaching/injuries/Dolan (why Dolan? whynot!), we’re probobly stuck with a moral victory by giving Miami a hard series but losing.
      And then, while there is a chance that the roster will stick together -Smith opts in, Novak takes the 2 mil exception, Jefferies takes vet min, Lin gets the 5 mil exception, resign Fields and Walker cheap and hope for the best, bring back Woodson. You just know since they’re the Knicks and they will cause us pain, this won’t happen! Damn my father for bringing me up a Knicks fan. (Bless him for bringing me up a Yankees fan though)

    112. JK47

      I’m a big Fields fan, but at this point I’d have to think the FO should trade him for a daft pick if they can.

      Hopefully not a “daft” pick.

    113. gjknick

      JK47: I’m a big Fields fan, but at this point I’d have to think the FO should trade him for a daft pick if they can.Hopefully not a “daft” pick.

      Someone would have to be daft to give up a first rounder for him

    114. Ben R

      I think Fields still has plenty of upside. After last year we all wanted Fields to develop an off the dribble game, pass better and improve on the defensive end. This year he came back with a nice slashing game, added a full assist per 36 and half a steal. His defense has improved and is solid, I would say good at the 3 and average at the 2. If his shot hadn’t completely fallen apart he would have had a nice 2nd year. Over 5 rebs, 3 asts and 1.5 stls per 36 are very good non-scoring stats.

      He seems to be a hard worker that was a solid shooter in college and a good shooter last year. To say that he is done and he won’t fix his shot is premature. Maybe his shot will never recover and he will never be anything more than an end of the bench player but the gamble to see if it does recover is very low risk.

      Add a good spot up three and good free throw shooting to Fields’s great all-around and slashing game and you have a very nice complementary player.

    115. johnno

      Here’s the bottom line — veterans who have made loads of money (i.e., Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries) are much more likely to pick a team because they like playing for them, even if it means taking less money, than guys who have never had a big payday (i.e., Novak and J.R.). If someone offers Novak or J.R. $5 million a year, I don’t think that there’s a chance in hell that they’ll accept $1 million to stay with the Knicks no matter how much they love it here — and who could blame them?

    116. Z

      Frank: Hmm. I don’t think anyone is giving anything of use away for a guy who totally overachieved in 1/2 of his first season, and who has since played like one of the worst players in the NBA.Maybe a bottom of the barrel 2nd round pick, but is that even worth it?

      That’s your “I’m a rational person who looks at hard evidence before forming an opinion” side talking. History has taught us that there are a good handful of GMs in the league that don’t have that side. (Fields is cheap, has no personal baggage, and has shown he can be an effective starter in the league. To say he has no “value” ignores the reality that everybody (with the exception of Eddy Curry@$11,000,000) seems to have value to somebody in this league).

    117. Jafa

      We all like Fields. We all liked Charlie Ward too but would have taken a better PG in a minute. We all liked Extra E but are not crying for him because we now have Novak. We all like Toney Douglas but we have no complaints with Lin (and the corpses of Baron Davis and Mike Bibby) playing ahead of him right now.

      That is what happened to Fields. Someone better came along. His name is Iman Shumpert and he is right now a better SG. That’s what makes Fields expendable.

    118. Jafa

      johnno:
      Here’s the bottom line — veterans who have made loads of money (i.e., Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries) are much more likely to pick a team because they like playing for them, even if it means taking less money, than guys who have never had a big payday (i.e., Novak and J.R.).If someone offers Novak or J.R. $5 million a year, I don’t think that there’s a chance in hell that they’ll accept $1million to stay with the Knicks no matter how much they love it here — and who could blame them?

      Great point. I think we can find another Novak for the veteran’s minimum but where will we get another JR? Where’s Wilson Chandler when you need him?

    119. Brian Cronin

      We all like Fields. We all liked Charlie Ward too but would have taken a better PG in a minute. We all liked Extra E but are not crying for him because we now have Novak. We all like Toney Douglas but we have no complaints with Lin (and the corpses of Baron Davis and Mike Bibby) playing ahead of him right now.

      That is what happened to Fields. Someone better came along. His name is Iman Shumpert and he is right now a better SG. That’s what makes Fields expendable.

      But again, all the Knicks have to do to have a shot at keeping him is offer him the qualifying offer of $1 million. Since they have already taken a $2 million flier on Douglas for next season, there is likely less than a zero percent chance they don’t at least tender him the qualifying offer. “Expendable” comes into play when you have to choose between players (like if you have to choose between Lin and Novak, Novak is “expendable”), not when you can bring a guy back for a million bucks. If someone gives him an offer sheet, then expendable also comes into play.

    120. TelegraphedPass

      Jafa: We all like Fields. We all liked Charlie Ward too but would have taken a better PG in a minute. We all liked Extra E but are not crying for him because we now have Novak. We all like Toney Douglas but we have no complaints with Lin (and the corpses of Baron Davis and Mike Bibby) playing ahead of him right now.That is what happened to Fields. Someone better came along. His name is Iman Shumpert and he is right now a better SG. That’s what makes Fields expendable.

      But if re-signing him takes zero risk, why sacrifice depth? Especially at that price. Look at the best teams in the league. Short of the Heat, all the best teams are incredibly deep.

    121. JC Knickfan

      Fields needs offseason to practice his jump shot get back to average. Otherwise he probably not cracking the rotation next year. His average for FT in college was like 68% which pretty putrid for Guard. Our best bet is we can use him as backup 3 where he can be high energy off bench for max 12-18 minutes during non-garbage time. Also I think been OK running the PNR and has great on court chemistry with Lin specially on alley oops.

    122. gjknick

      He is expendable as a starter and even as a top 8 in the rotation type right now. However, someone has to come along who is better as a 9th or 10th or 11th man off the bench now. That’s why the Knicks will keep him.

      Jafa: We all like Fields. We all liked Charlie Ward too but would have taken a better PG in a minute. We all liked Extra E but are not crying for him because we now have Novak. We all like Toney Douglas but we have no complaints with Lin (and the corpses of Baron Davis and Mike Bibby) playing ahead of him right now.That is what happened to Fields. Someone better came along. His name is Iman Shumpert and he is right now a better SG. That’s what makes Fields expendable.

    123. PC

      I don’t like Fields so I’m not sure who “all” is.

      Having Douglas and Fields on a roster that lacks size and rebounding is why we will never be elite next year. We need a bench full of guys that fix our starters problems. We don’t rebound well (we only have Chandler). Having guards that look like they’re playing waterpolo on the court is a joke. Fields cannot make an open shot.

      I love the idea for trading him. Let’s trade him for a sack of referee whistles and then beat toney douglas to death with it.

    124. TelegraphedPass

      PC: I don’t like Fields so I’m not sure who “all” is. Having Douglas and Fields on a roster that lacks size and rebounding is why we will never be elite next year. We need a bench full of guys that fix our starters problems. We don’t rebound well (we only have Chandler). Having guards that look like they’re playing waterpolo on the court is a joke. Fields cannot make an open shot. I love the idea for trading him. Let’s trade him for a sack of referee whistles and then beat toney douglas to death with it.

      I’m on record as never ever liking the FSU guy ever and I think you’re going way too far. Gotta chill, dawg.

      Also, I disagree with your larger points. We don’t rebound well, so we should drop Landry? Dallas didn’t seem to have too much of a problem lacking strong rebounders outside of Chandler (and Matrix).

    125. ruruland

      PC:
      I don’t like Fields so I’m not sure who “all” is.

      I love the idea for trading him. Let’s trade him for a sack of referee whistles and then beat toney douglas to death with it.

      haha

    126. Jafa

      Brian & Telegraph,

      OK, keep Fields at the $1 M qualifying offer for depth. But please get us a better back up PG, a scoring wing (if JR departs), a 3PT specialist (if Novak departs) and a rebounding big of the bench (if Harrellson and Jordan can’t fill this role).

      If keeping Fields does not stop us from doing that, then by all means he can stay.

    127. TelegraphedPass

      Jafa: Brian & Telegraph,OK, keep Fields at the $1 M qualifying offer for depth. But please get us a better back up PG, a scoring wing (if JR departs), a 3PT specialist (if Novak departs) and a rebounding big of the bench (if Harrellson and Jordan can’t fill this role).If keeping Fields does not stop us from doing that, then by all means he can stay.

      Jorts and Jerome Jordan have both posted very nice TR% in their time on the floor. Obviously we haven’t seen enough to be sure, but it still stands. Also we have them both under contract through next season, so we should be solid there.

      We absolutely need a scoring wing (like Marcus Denmon ;)) and a few threats from deep, and lack a ton of money to throw at them. That’s why I’d rather use the draft to try and find a scoring wing and maybe try the D-league for a back-up PG.

    128. Doug

      Z: That’s your “I’m a rational person who looks at hard evidence before forming an opinion” side talking. History has taught us that there are a good handful of GMs in the league that don’t have that side. (Fields is cheap, has no personal baggage, and has shown he can be an effective starter in the league. To say he has no “value” ignores the reality that everybody (with the exception of Eddy Curry@$11,000,000) seems to have value to somebody in this league).

      Denver didn’t want him when his value has at its peak, why would anyone want him now when his value is at “reclamation project” status?

    129. ruruland

      thenamestsam:
      Think you might like this:

      http://blogs.thescore.com/tbj/2012/04/19/here-is-carmelo-anthonys-giant-carmelo-anthony-painting/

      It’s honestly hard for me to imagine what it is like to be the kind of person who feels okay about having a giant picture of their own head hanging above their fireplace. It’s incomprehensible to me.

      Yeah, pretty sure Melo is the interior designer of the home, the one inviting people inside to take pictures. Do you have pictures of you and your family in your home?? Do you ever look at those pictures when you can;t see your family for weeks or months?

      Are those really all that much different than a portrait. IF you had tens of millions of dollars to spend wouldn’t you buy your portrait???

      Nah, he’s a narcissistic scum bag, I can easily infer that from the fact that he has his own portrait in his home.

      Anyway, BR new game log tool is awesome;

      Here is the 53 game stretch where Melo had a .612 TS. 26.3/8.3/3.1 in just 36.5 mpg. (the last 4 months with Iverson) after Barkley called him out.

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/gamelog/2008/

    130. Nick C.

      That painting is more than half the size of the couch. Maybe the uberwealthy just have bigger homes so it takes up proportionately as much space as 8x14s on people’s walls and mantles.

    131. TelegraphedPass

      I’m not going to begrudge these millionaire athlete’s their absurd purchases. Is it really that much worse than Shaq’s Superman bed? Or Clyde’s mirrored ceiling?

    132. PC

      Having a huge picture of you at the age you currently are – means only you and your wife and 5 year old look at the current you on the wall. That’s wierd. Shaq’s superman bed is so episodes of cribs aren’t boring. Clyde’s mirrored ceiling is for humping and pumping.

      The picture is for….oh man. I was starting to like Melo’s personality too.

      As long as he keeps up the scoring machine thing, he could put himself on Mt. Rushmore.

    133. Doug

      TelegraphedPass:
      I’m not going to begrudge these millionaire athlete’s their absurd purchases. Is it really that much worse than Shaq’s Superman bed? Or Clyde’s mirrored ceiling?

      A-Rod’s centaur portrait?

    134. SeeWhyDee77

      I’m no cap expert and I know little to nothing about our cap situation and what we can do with it..but I looked at our roster and tried to imagine it going forward. More than half the team are FA’s. Lin is a lock to be re-signed. And I know Earl has a PO for next season which he’s sure to opt out of. Which kinda sucks because I would love a combo of Shump/Smith at the 2. I hoped Walker and Fields were still under contract so that we could move those 2..Fields should bring back something. Only problem is he’s on a 2nd rounder’s salary. But they are FA’s too so no dice there. I would love to see Novak, Smith, and Jeffries return. I’d also be open to packaging the other JJ or Jorts if it meant we could get Anthony Randolph back- I’d like to see him return..he could learn ALOT from Chandler. We could very well be stuck with a combo of Lin/Douglas at the one next season an that scares me. And even if Stat comes back and sets the world on fire with no limitations from that bulging disk..no one will trade for him. We may very well be forced to move one of our 2 most indispensible players in Melo and Chandler. That REALLY scares me. Face it, we need Melo a whole helluvalot more than we need Stat. I’m wondering if Stat can “Karl Malone-ize” his game, becuz that’s the only way I see him fitting in and helping our cause. If nothing else Melo, for all his flaws, has proven since Stat went down that he deserves to be the player the team builds around. And maybe Woodson’s not so bad a choice for the HC gig. I like what we have rite now, but I’m just worried goin forward. Thoughts?

    135. d-mar

      jon abbey: no one still takes that site seriously, right?

      in like 20 years, there will be basketball sabermetric conventions, and in between the real lectures/discussions, they will have people read old WoW posts, and the crowds will laugh and laugh and laugh.

      Someone takes it very seriously, but I can’t remember his name because it’s been so long since he posted. Something like The Vulnerable Spotted Owls?

    136. SeeWhyDee77

      and AR is only 22 and has proven he can defend and rebound..he just needs someone in his ear like Woodson and Chandler would be to give him a lil push

    137. gjknick

      thenamestsam: Think you might like this:http://blogs.thescore.com/tbj/2012/04/19/here-is-carmelo-anthonys-giant-carmelo-anthony-painting/It’s honestly hard for me to imagine what it is like to be the kind of person who feels okay about having a giant picture of their own head hanging above their fireplace. It’s incomprehensible to me.

      Good thing I don’t know Melo personally and most likely never will. I do know he’s pretty good at basketball and I could care less if he hangs a potrait of his penis on the wall. What goes on in his home is his business as long as its legal. Now, go put on 35 points on 20 shots, win us a playoff series this year, then he can pray at the alter of himself if he so chooses all off season! It’s OK with me.

    138. TelegraphedPass

      Tyson had a rep as injury prone his whole career. His best year according to WS/48 happened his 3rd year in Chicago (pre-Dallas).

    139. SeeWhyDee77

      TelegraphedPass: This is false.

      well..I guess he did ok his last season and a half as a Bull…but he didn’t put it all together until he got 2 Nawlins is what i’m tryina say to be more accurate.

    140. TelegraphedPass

      SeeWhyDee77: and AR is only 22 and has proven he can defend and rebound..he just needs someone in his ear like Woodson and Chandler would be to give him a lil push

      Ant Rand can defend? You mean like how he’s given up 1.16 points per possession on 54.4 FG% in the post this year?

      His 13.3 rebound percentage is just a tad worse than Amar’e Stoudemire’s this year. And .3 better than Renaldo Balkman. Welp.

    141. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey: no one still takes that site seriously, right?

      in like 20 years, there will be basketball sabermetric conventions, and in between the real lectures/discussions, they will have people read old WoW posts, and the crowds will laugh and laugh and laugh.

      What do you disagree with in that article? Or are you, as usual, talking straight out of your asshole?

    142. TelegraphedPass

      Ant Rand is very talented. He’s long and athletic. He could develop into a good player. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into on-court success. Maybe he can overcome his weaknesses, focus, and become a very productive player. Z-Bo certainly did. I’m not sure NY is in the position to take that gamble on a player who is FAR from reliable.

    143. thenamestsam

      ruruland: Yeah, pretty sure Melo is the interior designer ofthe home, the one inviting people inside to take pictures. Do you have pictures of you and your family in your home??Do you ever look at those pictures when you can;t see your family for weeks or months?

      Are those really all that much different than a portrait. IF you had tens of millions of dollars to spend wouldn’t you buy your portrait???

      Nah, he’s a narcissistic scum bag, I can easily infer that from the fact that he has his own portrait in his home.

      Anyway, BR new game log tool is awesome;

      Here is the 53 game stretch where Melo had a .612 TS. 26.3/8.3/3.1 in just 36.5 mpg. (the last 4 months with Iverson) after Barkley called him out.

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/gamelog/2008/

      No need to work yourself into your usual Melo defending tizzy. I don’t think I said or implied that he was scum. I said it was incomprehensible to me, which is true. I honestly can’t imagine wanting to have the me equivalent of that hanging in my home (but then again artists aren’t actually lining up to do massive portraits of me). That doesn’t make it a bad thing. The lifestyle of an eskimo is also incomprehensible to me, but I don’t think they’re scum either. I just thought it was pretty funny, and I think I’m going to stand by that opinion.

    144. TelegraphedPass

      Just to finish on the whole Ant Rand thing:

      Ant Rand has been a worse rebounder and defender this year than Jorts. He has also been a worse spot up shooter and scored less efficiently as the PnR roll man.

      There isn’t very much Ant Rand has done better than Jorts this year.

    145. SeeWhyDee77

      TelegraphedPass: Ant Rand can defend? You mean like how he’s given up 1.16 points per possession on 54.4 FG% in the post this year?

      His 13.3 rebound percentage is just a tad worse than Amar’e Stoudemire’s this year. And .3 better than Renaldo Balkman. Welp.

      lol..I completely missed that. I guess I’m goin off of what I’ve seen him do with extended PT. I just think he would do well off the bench with guys like Woodson, JJ, Lin and Chandler around. Plus he’s more offensively gifted than those 3, so if he can harness his abilities in the current atmosphere I think he would be a good piece. He’s definitely not the waste that Eddy Curry has become. I will admit tho..his bball IQ does not match his “potential”. I think coaches see him run, jump, and dribble and expect too much out of him. But then again he was a 1st round draft pick. I still believe if u put him in a position where he understands his role and limitations he will flourish..kinda like Jeffries is doin as a Knick. But what about the rest of the roster though? I’m still kinda worried movin forward.

    146. TelegraphedPass

      @167 Lmao yo I want the best for Ant Rand as well, but he’s just been terrible. He has all the tools to be effective, but hasn’t even come close to harnessing them.

    147. SeeWhyDee77

      SeeWhyDee77: Plus he’s more offensively gifted than those 3, so if he can harness his abilities in the current atmosphere I think he would be a good piece.

      err..I meant more offensively gifted than Chandler, JJ and Jorts. I like Jorts tho..so I’m not knockin him. I’m just sayin AR can be a better rim protector than Jorts..but so can the other JJ. I do wish Woodson would give Jorts more burn though.

    148. Z

      Doug: Denver didn’t want him when his value has at its peak, why would anyone want him now when his value is at “reclamation project” status?

      I’m not sure if you’re being serious or not, but Denver didn’t not want Fields. They wanted Gallinari more (which has nothing to do with Fields’ current value).

      As I said in the post that you quoted, GMs make trades that aren’t very good. Marcus Williams, a “reclamation project” who was never good or even average, was traded straight up for a lottery pick; a 34 year old Kurt Thomas was traded for 2 first rounders; The Knicks once managed to trade a very damaged Charles Smith for a 1st round pick; The same Knicks also once effectively traded 3 first round picks (though the picks were already made) for Chris Mills…

      The point is, whenever you ask of a trade “what GM would do that?”, the answer, in the NBA, is almost always: “somebody”.

    149. TelegraphedPass

      @170 Also, remember Fields was once a top 10 player. Hopefully he can reclaim that former glory.

    150. nicos

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What do you disagree with in that article?

      Well, if you’re willing to take 12 games as a sample size (and obviously they are)- in the last 12 games before Amar’e got hurt he averaged 18.6 pts and 7.8 rpg (20.4 and 8.7 per 36) with a TS% of .626 and a rebound rate of 14.7. Does that really sound like a guy you’d want to leave on the bench??

    151. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What do you disagree with in that article? Or are you, as usual, talking straight out of your asshole?

      Not even trying to pick a fight with you, but this article was lazy, poorly researched etc.

      #1 – why even bother writing a post saying that Amare should just stay off the court even when healthy? is that ever going to happen? no.

      #2 – the Amare analysis completely ignores the fact that prior to his (most recent) injury, he was playing REALLY well to the tune of 19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per 36 on a TS of 60.2 in the 14 games after the ASB. He looked strong and quick, and was playing better D. Is 14 games a small sample? Of course. But his whole article is premised on a 13 game stretch after Amare went down.

      #3- the Knicks were 6-1 with J-Lin, Amare, and Melo all playing together, which included 3 wins against playoff teams (Indy home-and-home and Philly before Philly sucked). And in fact, the Knicks record WITH Lin/Amare/Melo under Woodson is BETTER than their record without Lin and Amare (9-4). The schedule has probably been tougher but not by that much if you consider Indy is one of the hottest teams in the NBA.

      I know you reflexively defend all things that have “WOW” in them, but this was a pretty crappy article if you ask me. If it were published on Knickerblogger rather than wagesofwins.com you would be ripping the crap out of it.

    152. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: What do you disagree with in that article? Or are you, as usual, talking straight out of your asshole?

      that’s like the crazy homeless guy outside the subway station asking me “what do you disagree with in what I just said?”. let’s just say that we have different ways of looking at the world, and leave it at that.

    153. Frank

      @nicos – this is the second time TODAY someone else has posted the exact same thing as me at the same time. amazing.

    154. JC Knickfan

      Frank:

      #3- the Knicks were 6-1 with J-Lin, Amare, and Melo all playing together, which included 3 wins against playoff teams (Indy home-and-home and Philly before Philly sucked).And in fact, the Knicks record WITH Lin/Amare/Melo under Woodson is BETTER than their record without Lin and Amare (9-4).The schedule has probably been tougher but not by that much if you consider Indy is one of the hottest teams in the NBA.

      Don’t forget we did lose to Indy with Melo only version of the Knicks. We 15 pt lead in 4th QT, but still lost. Many poster on this board was saying if we had Lin, he wouldn’t let that lead evaporate.

    155. JC Knickfan

      Basically we have wait and see what happen when Amare get back. If Woodson can go 4-0 with Amare playing, even we get sweep in the Playoff, Knicks should bring him back next year.

    156. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland,

      Do you fantasize about being friends with Carmelo or something? Or did you know him growing up? Are you his pastor? Or does he donate to your non-profit?

      Also, jon: You provide nothing constructive. You didn’t read that article — admit it — and you dismiss it because that site uses a statistic that runs contrary to everything you intuitively believe about player value. Nothing you say matters. Thanks, THCJ

      Frank,

      It’s obvious hyperbole to say that a max player shouldn’t play when healthy. But their metric claims that he’s so inefficient (and has been over the last year and a half) that maybe the team would be better if he weren’t on it. I tend to agree with that.

      What’s the Knicks’ record with and without Amar’e? When the “bullshit” metric (PoP, in this case) correlates with the actual wins the way that it does, it makes me question whether it is me, and not the metric, that is wrong about something. I’m willing to put my ego aside and say, “Hey, maybe I’m wrong about who’s good and who’s not.”

      Abbey’s comments about how we’ll look back on this era of statistical analysis as the stone age (or whatever) is the same as saying that because Freud and Darwin were wrong in their methods/assumptions, that they weren’t important to their movements. Maybe basketball statistics aren’t as important as psychology or natural science, but just because they’re flawed doesn’t mean that they’re not better than the analysis that the posters on this board seem to think is appropriate.

      I hesitate to even call this board a place for advanced statistics anymore.

    157. nicos

      Frank:
      @nicos – this is the second time TODAY someone else has posted the exact same thing as me at the same time.amazing.

      Great minds!
      And while we’re talking about small sample sizes here’s Amar’e’s numbers during a 20 game stretch-11/9 to 12/15- last year (i.e without Nash) 28.9 pts, 9.4 rpg, 2.4 asts, 2.1 blks. with a TS% of .631! I post this less to praise Amar’e than to slightly dampen the Melo madness- very good players go on runs like this. Is it sustainable in Melo’s case? Who knows? If he can shoot 40% from three like he’s done during this run and did last year after the trade then yeah, he could be a 58-59 TS guy. I tend to doubt he’ll keep shooting it that well but I certainly could be wrong.

    158. Z-man

      Owen: Since March 26, the first game after Amare left the lineup, his TS% is exactly 60%. And yes, I am cherry picking that date because he has been incandescent since then.
      If you were wondering, yes, I do think the Carmelo of the last 13 games is an All-NBA player, although his rebounding has been a little light for a guy playing power forward.

      Come on, Owen, that is a bit of a chepa shot, he is not really playing power forward, it is more like the Knicks are playing without a PF and instead have two SFs. Anthony is almost exclusively being guarded by SFs, and he is often guarding PFs on D and doing well at it. Furthermore, the Knicks as a team have been rebounding well and he’s a big part of that.

    159. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:

      What’s the Knicks’ record with and without Amar’e? When the “bullshit” metric (PoP, in this case) correlates with the actual wins the way that it does, it makes me question whether it is me, and not the metric, that is wrong about something. I’m willing to put my ego aside and say, “Hey, maybe I’m wrong about who’s good and who’s not.”

      My answer to this is simple – it doesn’t take an advanced metric to know that Amare sucked for most of this year. Or maybe more appropriately – just about ANY metric showed that Amare sucked from 12/25/11 until the ASB. Raw FG%? Check. He sucked. Unadjusted +/-? Check. He sucked.

      WOW made its name by predicting that certain players would be better players than “regular” statistics might predict. And as a tool for finding these inefficiencies, I think it’s useful, as long as it is not considered to be the end-all and be-all, and as long as people who use it don’t use it in a tautology. What I mean by this is the old Nick Fazekas example which is that WOW predicts he’s awesome, and lo and behold look at his WOW numbers – they’re awesome so he must be awesome! And coaches who see he can’t play at this level must be wrong because the WOW #s are great.

      What jonabbey, I, and others find dissatisfying about current stats is how messy they are. Tons of confounders, nothing to assess the pass before the assist, nothing reliable in terms of defensive stats, etc. Basketball stats are a mess right now – it doesn’t mean that you can’t make important conclusions based on them, but — and this is my main point — to ridicule others based on really crappy #s just seems totally unwarranted.

    160. nicos

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:

      I’m willing to put my ego aside and say, “Hey, maybe I’m wrong about who’s good and who’s not.”

      Really?? You seem pretty unwilling to criticize WoW even when it says stuff like Jason Kidd was the best player on the Mavs last year.

    161. Bruno Almeida

      the board is definitely not a place for advanced stats anymore, and the ones who do think they are useful tools for analysis are definitely in the minority, like me.

      yes, Carmelo Anthony is playing really well, but I don’t get why this is a knock on advanced stats.

      all the stats say is that he, throughout his career, hasn’t been able to score efficiently and consistently.

      they don’t predict that he’ll never do that… the same exact thing happened with Pierce, who had crappy efficiency numbers and has turned into a really efficient player post-big 3 trade.

      I don’t get why some people would want to ditch the advanced stats, however flawed they may be… why can’t we compliment our own analysis with the data?

      focusing only on stats is stupid, but ignoring them altogether is even more stupid, in my opinion.

      and I’m not saying to cherry pick the stats which help your analysis, like many here do, but to use them as a tool.

      if Carmelo Anthony gets a .600 TS% and keeps it that way for a long period of time, I don’t think anyone will complain about that… if he plays defense really well too, obviously every sensible person would agree that he’s a terrific player, me and every other guy who thinks the stats are useful.

      it just hasn’t happened yet.

    162. Garson

      I have heard alot of people on this board saying that its better for us to be in the 8th seed and face Bulls.

      However, if we land in 7th and somehow pull an upset, we would be facing the winner of the Indiana – Magic series as opposed to the Celtics.

      Ill take 7.

    163. Frank

      Bruno Almeida:
      the board is definitely not a place for advanced stats anymore, and the ones who do think they are useful tools for analysis are definitely in the minority, like me.

      I don’t think anyone here wants to ditch the stats that we use. WS, WP, other efficiency statistics. Some people here DO, however, think that players are doomed to repeat what their stats say they have done IN THE PAST, regardless of new teams, roles, coaches, etc.

      But no one here wants to go back to valuing players just based on PPG etc. What’s happened here is that the level of discourse across the internet has been raised to the point where it feels routine. Efficiency stats, PPP, TS%, etc. are all in the mainstream media now thanks to guys like Zach Lowe, Hollinger, etc.

      If you look at most of the posts, we’re all using language no one used before Knickerblogger existed. It just feels normal now, as opposed to cutting-edge like it did before. That’s a good thing, I guess.

    164. thenamestsam

      I’m not a big WoW guy, and the article is clearly (to my mind) relying on hyperbole somewhat. That said, I don’t think the fundamental point of the article (that Amare is vastly overrated at this point) is incorrect. He’s just not that valuable in my mind. A few points on that thought:

      1. WoW is clearly imperfect, but if we can understand its imperfections we can still use it in meaningful ways as long as we mentally correct for its imperfections. So what are some of the reasons that a player might be underrated by WoW?

      The biggest and most important one has to do with over-penalizing low efficiency scorers due to the fact that the higher efficiency guys can’t actually get high efficiency looks every time. So Amare’s ability to be a high-usage guy may have value above what WoW says if he’s only taking shots that would otherwise be last second heaves by JR etc. However it doesn’t seem to me like this is a huge issue for the current Knicks team. When Melo is out of the game there are times when the lack of a high usage type is apparent, but with the exception of Fields’ 5 possessions a game and some for the backup guards there aren’t a ton of possessions for Amare to use that I wouldn’t rather have the current user use. My point being that while this aspect of WoW probably underrates Amare, I don’t think it is by a huge amount. Amare may make the offensive game easier for everyone else by his presence, but I don’t think it’s obvious that this is a large factor the way it clearly is with Melo.

      The other big thing is defense, but if anything as a bad defender on a very good defensive team Amare’s defense is probably overrated by WoW.

      2. Second quick point is that by my eye test the team just doesn’t miss Amare that much. Lin definitely, but with the exception of the few minutes that Melo sits there haven’t been a lot of moments where I thought “If only we had Amare right now” and I haven’t seen many comments on these boards to that…

    165. Jafa

      I don’t want to face either the Bulls or the Heat in the first round. So it makes no difference to me if we are 7th or 8th. I am already preparing myself for a 4-2 heartbreak. I know this will happen, yet I root for my Knicks.

      Now, if Orlando spotted us that 6th seed, I’d really get excited.

    166. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:

      I hesitate to even call this board a place for advanced statistics anymore.

      thankfully.

      and your Freud/Darwin comparisons are hilarious, as if anyone will remember the name Dave Berri for any reason in 10 or 20 years. a better comparison would be if there was a field of ‘science’ built on the obvious fact that the earth is flat.

      Bruno, complementing one’s own analysis with the data would of course be ideal, but the data is often so flawed that it’s worthless and/or misleading.

    167. Brian Cronin

      Dave Berri is interesting. While I certainly don’t use his stats in specific, he clearly has had a very positive overall effect on basketball stats. I don’t think there’s a single NBA front office that hasn’t read his work and incorporated his ideas into their own measurements. I just think that is the key with Berri – taking his good ideas and dropping his not-so-good ideas. But overall, he has been a positive force in better understanding basketball (as has Hollinger, of course – same concept – PER in and of itself is outdated, but the ideas he came up with in developing PER were very valuable).

    168. ruruland

      Frank: My answer to this is simple – it doesn’t take an advanced metric to know that Amare sucked for most of this year.Or maybe more appropriately – just about ANY metric showed that Amare sucked from 12/25/11 until the ASB.Raw FG%? Check. He sucked. Unadjusted +/-? Check. He sucked.

      WOW made its name by predicting that certain players would be better players than “regular” statistics might predict.And as a tool for finding these inefficiencies, I think it’s useful, as long as it is not considered to be the end-all and be-all, and as long as people who use it don’t use it in a tautology.What I mean by this is the old Nick Fazekas example which is that WOW predicts he’s awesome, and lo and behold look at his WOW numbers – they’re awesome so he must be awesome!And coaches who see he can’t play at this level must be wrong because the WOW #s are great.

      What jonabbey, I, and others find dissatisfying about current stats is how messy they are. Tons of confounders, nothing to assess the pass before the assist, nothing reliable in terms of defensive stats, etc. Basketball stats are a mess right now – it doesn’t mean that you can’t make important conclusions based on them, but — and this is my main point — to ridicule others based on really crappy #s just seems totally unwarranted.

      Right, no one argues with the numbers, they are what they are… They argue with what they mean, not just predictively, but what unquantifiable variables made them so….. The numbers are only important if you understand how they were produced.

    169. TelegraphedPass

      There was a piece I read a bit ago on HP that said that stats like PER shouldn’t be used to prove points or make definitive statements. Rather, PER serves to better help us re-examine how we think about player’s and their value and contribution. I tend to lean towards that side.

      There is this strange dichotomy developing of “advanced stats guys” vs. “eyetest guys” and I don’t think it’s very productive. Or accurate, to be honest. Ruru, jon abbey, etc. don’t avoid or dispute the validity of advanced stats to my knowledge. So I get a bit confused when THCJ and Bruno Almeida lament the devolution of this board into a realm where advanced stats get no respect.

      Just because some of us disagree with the lens through which we’re using the stats doesn’t mean we discount their value.

      I just don’t see the point of this becoming a constant us vs. them type of situation just because people disagree.

    170. Bruno Almeida

      jon abbey: thankfully.

      and your Freud/Darwin comparisons are hilarious, as if anyone will remember the name Dave Berri for any reason in 10 or 20 years. a better comparison would be if there was a field of ‘science’ built on the obvious fact that the earth is flat.

      Bruno, complementing one’s own analysis with the data would of course be ideal, but the data is often so flawed that it’s worthless and/or misleading.

      I agree that the data still has a LONG way to go, but some of them (in my opion, TS% and the ones like ast%, trb% and ppp) are useful if used in the proper way.

      the stats that try to evaluate the whole contribution of a player, like PER, WP and WS are still very, very flawed, misleading and really close to useless, but those specific ones are a very good tool.

      with the really obvious stuff, we don’t need stats… no one needs TS% or EFG% to see that LeBron James is a really good and efficient player… it’s with the more subtle stuff that advanced stats really help, for example, on how to evaluate players like Vince Carter or Tracy McGrady when their performance is more flash than substance, but they got hyped by the media nonetheless.

    171. jon abbey

      ruruland: Right, no one argues with the numbers, they are what they are… They argue with what they mean, not just predictively, but what unquantifiable variables made them so….. The numbers are only important if you understand how they were produced.

      maybe we’re saying the same thing, but I actually do argue with (some of) the numbers. points are obviously easy to attribute correctly, rebounds too (although some are crucial and others are meaningless), but assists, steals, blocked shots, and especially turnovers, all of these are routinely miscredited. until this is remedied, it’s hard to take metrics based on these often mistaken fundamental numbers too seriously.

    172. jon abbey

      TelegraphedPass:
      Or accurate, to be honest. Ruru, jon abbey, etc. don’t avoid or dispute the validity of advanced stats to my knowledge.

      I definitely do, I don’t think I could be more clear about that. they tend to be metrics generated from faulty data with mistaken assumptions factored in, just as often wrong as they are right.

    173. Owen

      Ruruland – “Yeah, I was 7 or 8 games off it looks like. I predicted he’d be a 60 TS player in the second half and it looks like he’ll come up a little short of that.”

      You were actually 14 games off, not 7 or 8. Melo was shitting the bed until Amare went out, shooting 41.7% from the field after the break. And he isn’t coming up a little short at the moment. he is still 5% off your prediction and not that far above league average for the post all star break period.

      But you know what, if Melo continues to shoot 44% from three and play like this, sure, my feelings might change.

      Z – “And y’all wonder why a few good games by Carmelo doesn’t quite do it for us :)”

      At least we have a much better record than the Nuggets do and clearly won that trade. We are an elite team, a championship contender, and we have enough cap space to add the pieces we need.

      Right?

      I don’t see any issue with Kareem’s piece. Seems pretty humble actually. I think he would look a little silly if he pretended he fell anywhere short of being one of the very greatest college basketball players of all time.

      And that painting is craptacular…..

      Jon – I don’t know what people will think of Berri in 20 years. But people don’t look at scorers in the same way anymore, even the general public. And he has a lot to do with that.

    174. jon abbey

      Owen:

      Jon – I don’t know what people will think of Berri in 20 years. But people don’t look at scorers in the same way anymore, even the general public. And he has a lot to do with that.

      yep, and while there certainly was a time when points per game was overrated, to me this has gone too far, with assertions like “anyone in the NBA can score” becoming way too widely believed. right now, efficient scoring is way overrated in a vacuum, it’s so much more context dependent than seems to be generally accepted.

      I mean, does anyone really think that if NY had Harden instead of Melo for the past 3 weeks, that NY would have as good of a record? Harden is great and seemingly still getting better, but to compare a primary scorer who is getting very little help to a third option just makes no sense to me.

    175. nicos

      @190 You’re assuming that Melo is going to continue on this torrid shooting pace which may not be sustainable. If Amar’e’s healthy he can put up the same kind of efficiency numbers Melo is putting up now so having him take some of Melo’s shots (let alone those of others) doesn’t hurt the team at all. And while the rebounding drop off isn’t huge between Amar’e and Melo (though as a 4 Amar’e is a better rebounder) the difference between have Melo as your three and Smith/Fields does make a difference as far as rebounding is concerned- if you look at the Knicks during this streak they’ve been out-rebounded in every one of their losses and I’d say that rebounding was probably the main reason they lost to both Miami and Chicago so having Amar’e back would have helped in those games. All of this is dependent on Amar’e’s health, of course. If he’s truly healthy then there’s no way he doesn’t help the team as long as he defends with the energy he was playing it with just before he went out. If he’s not healthy which is a distinct possibility, then yeah he could hurt the team.

    176. ruruland

      jon abbey: maybe we’re saying the same thing, but I actually do argue with (some of) the numbers. points are obviously easy to attribute correctly, rebounds too (although some are crucial and others are meaningless), but assists, steals, blocked shots, and especially turnovers, all of these are routinely miscredited. until this is remedied, it’s hard to take metrics based on these often mistaken fundamental numbers too seriously.

      yeah… Those are problems for sure. But to me it’s all about the data interpretation, which in part acknowledges both the imperfections of their collection, fraught with incomplete measures of single plays, but the complex relationships with which they were produced.

    177. Owen

      Jon – I understand you prefer an aesthetic approach to basketball. And I can understand your frustration with linear metrics. But it’s a little extreme to say advanced stats have no place.

    178. johnlocke

      Every time Melo is on the bench I think that. Stats are very useful as tools, but you also have to combine them with context. I take Amare at his word that coming into the season he was out of rhythm b/c of back rehab, etc. His stats over the last 7+ games before his injury and after having lost the weight are more in line with his career averages. If he is healthy, what is more likely? That the Amare of Game 1 in Boston and all of last season returns or that he’s worse than Landry Fields?

      thenamestsam:

      2. Second quick point is that by my eye test the team just doesn’t miss Amare that much. Lin definitely, but with the exception of the few minutes that Melo sits there haven’t been a lot of moments where I thought “If only we had Amare

    179. jon abbey

      nicos:
      if you look at the Knicks during this streak they’ve been out-rebounded in every one of their losses and I’d say that rebounding was probably the main reason they lost to both Miami and Chicago so having Amar’e back would have helped in those games.

      let’s not forget that Amare is a terrible rebounder for a big man. he had 5 and 3 rebounds respectively in the games we lost to Miami on 2/23 and Chicago on 3/12.

    180. TelegraphedPass

      jon abbey: I definitely do, I don’t think I could be more clear about that. they tend to be metrics generated from faulty data with mistaken assumptions factored in, just as often wrong as they are right.

      Haha my point was that you aren’t completely writing them off and supporting only the eye test and box scores. It seems that some posters, who claim this board is no longer a place where advanced stats are welcome, believe that you don’t believe in the use of advanced stats at all.

      I certainly don’t want to speak for you, though.

    181. johnlocke

      What he said….

      ruruland: Right, no one argues with the numbers, they are what they are… They argue with what they mean, not just predictively, but what unquantifiable variables made them so….. The numbers are only important if you understand how they were produced.

    182. jon abbey

      Owen:
      Jon – I understand you prefer an aesthetic approach to basketball. And I can understand your frustration with linear metrics. But it’s a little extreme to say advanced stats have no place.

      to me, there are so many errors in the system that the end data ends up being close to useless.

      another factor is that the NBA season ratchets up in intensity as it progresses, January games are at a higher level than November games (on average, of course), March games are at a higher level than January games, and the playoffs are at a higher level than 95% of regular season games. this is a crucial, fundamental truth that every NBA observer knows, yet it is not reflected anywhere in statistical analysis.

    183. Bruno Almeida

      jon abbey: yep, and while there certainly was a time when points per game was overrated, to me this has gone too far, with assertions like “anyone in the NBA can score” becoming way too widely believed. right now, efficient scoring is way overrated in a vacuum, it’s so much more context dependent than seems to be generally accepted.

      I mean, does anyone really think that if NY had Harden instead of Melo for the past 3 weeks, that NY would have as good of a record? Harden is great and seemingly still getting better, but to compare a primary scorer who is getting very little help to a third option just makes no sense to me.

      the numbers don’t say that, you’re taking them out of the context.

      when we look at advanced stats, we have to look at the way these numbers were produced… Harden’s numbers are incredibly good for a guy who’s the 3rd option on his team.

      but I don’t think anyone really believes if you change Harden’s role significantly, he’ll still have the same exact production.

      it’s like thinking Novak’s insane TS% would be the same if he had to create his own offense.

      however, the argument against high usage scorers is that it is possible to play basketball in a way where you can have many Harden’s on a team and don’t depend on one Carmelo to solve everything.

      I’m still undecided on that topic, I tend to think a team with all high-efficiency guys and good defenders can compete for a title, but such a team was never built and may not be possible to do at all.

    184. jon abbey

      Bruno Almeida:
      however, the argument against high usage scorers is that it is possible to play basketball in a way where you can have many Harden’s on a team and don’t depend on one Carmelo to solve everything.

      it is possible, but close to impossible to build a title-contending team along these lines. Detroit did it with Billups/Hamilton/Prince/two Wallaces, but it took having five guys all playing at close to All-Star levels as well as fitting together perfectly for them to succeed.

      it would be a fascinating test if Derrick Rose weren’t able to play in the entire postseason, that would be a nice test case.

    185. nicos

      jon abbey: let’s not forget that Amare is a terrible rebounder for a big man. he had 5 and 3 rebounds respectively in the games we lost to Miami on 2/23 and Chicago on 3/12.

      He’s actually slightly above league average for a PF this year. He was awful last year esp. considering he played a lot of 5 but he’s been fine this year. And for his career, he’s probably a little above average. He’s not a great rebounder but he’s not nearly as bad as people make him out to be- his numbers this year have been better than the numbers Melo has put up since he shifted to the 4 so it’s hard to say that the team’s numbers wouldn’t improve when he comes back.

    186. jon abbey

      nicos: He’s actually slightly above league average for a PF this year.He was awful last year esp. considering he played a lot of 5 but he’s been fine this year. And for his career, he’s probably a little above average.He’s not a great rebounder but he’s not nearly as bad as people make him out to be- his numbers this year have been better than the numbers Melo has put up since he shifted to the 4 so it’s hard to say that the team’s numbers wouldn’t improve when he comes back.

      I’m just projecting from those two games, since those are our two potential playoff opponents, it looks like.

      don’t get me wrong, we need an effective Amare to have any chance against either of those teams, but I am more confident about his scoring than his rebounding.

    187. Bruno Almeida

      jon abbey: it is possible, but close to impossible to build a title-contending team along these lines. Detroit did it with Billups/Hamilton/Prince/two Wallaces, but it took having five guys all playing at close to All-Star levels as well as fitting together perfectly for them to succeed.

      it would be a fascinating test if Derrick Rose weren’t able to play in the entire postseason, that would be a nice test case.

      yeah, I agree that it’s a very rare occurrence, and not easier at all than finding a true superstar who can carry your team, and complimentary pieces.

    188. Owen

      I think Harden could adjust to being a primary scorer quite easily. I don’t think he’d post a 65% ts% because it’s never been done. But that guy has talent to spare.

      He is also really really good in other aspects of the game.

      Given a choice between Harden and Melo I would take Harden in a second. Jon, who would you take? Especially considering Harden won’t get maxed?

      Regarding your point about the intensity ratcheting up, it would be interested to see that demonstrated empirically. (not sure how it could be) But I would say on an aggregate basis across the NBA it’s probably not true. So many bad teams are tanking at this point or have nothing to play for. And so many good teams are holding out there best players. Obviously, for the teams with something at stake it is far more intense. But I think NBA players are actually aware, even early in the season, that every game counts.

    189. jon abbey

      on a different note, can one of the guys here who does those blog pieces for the NYT take up the topic of TV coverage of basketball games? it seems like the bigger the game, the more useless angles they feel compelled to show and the worse job they end up doing. a few years ago, the big thing was to cutaway on a breakaway dunk to a shot behind the basket, entirely killing the momentum of the play for viewers. I don’t remember now if it was the BOS or NJ game, but they missed three major plays with their irrelevant camera work. one was a backcourt Shumpert steal leading to a Melo 3 (so maybe it was the NJ game).

      rules for televising basketball games:

      1. if the ball is in play, show the person with the ball.
      2. don’t switch camera angles. the normal one works just fine.

      rant over, but someone should run with this, because it’s ridiculous.

    190. Owen

      Also, Jon, I think the idea that scoring is a unique talent that can’t be replaced is highly questionable. It’s efficent scoring with good peripherals that’s hard to replace.

      People constantly underrate how good the guys on the bench in the NBA are. They often turn out to be able to score pretty prolifically, as the Knicks saw this year when Amare and Melo went down.

      Man, Linsanity seems like an aeon ago. And I definitely miss it.

    191. Bruno Almeida

      I’d take Harden too, because I think he could adjust, all I was saying is that his numbers would take a hit, like you said.

    192. Brian Cronin

      it seems like the bigger the game, the more useless angles they feel compelled to show and the worse job they end up doing. a few years ago, t

      Omigod is that irritating.

      They did that recently in some other game and it drove me nuts (I think it was the Chicago/Boston game the other week). They were showing us a shot from behind the backboard while a guy is shooting, so we missed whether the shot went in!!

    193. jon abbey

      Owen:
      I think Harden could adjust to being a primary scorer quite easily. I don’t think he’d post a 65% ts% because it’s never been done. But that guy has talent to spare.

      He is also really really good in other aspects of the game.

      Given a choice between Harden and Melo I would take Harden in a second. Jon, who would you take? Especially considering Harden won’t get maxed?

      Regarding your point about the intensity ratcheting up, it would be interested to see that demonstrated empirically. (not sure how it could be) But I would say on an aggregate basis across the NBA it’s probably not true. So many bad teams are tanking at this point or have nothing to play for. And so many good teams are holding out there best players. Obviously, for the teams with something at stake it is far more intense. But I think NBA players are actually aware, even early in the season, that every game counts.

      to win games this year, I would take Melo over Harden, no contest. going forward, dunno, Harden is still so young and he actually might end up with a max deal if he goes to free agency.

      and this season is an outlier in every way, so many players and teams came into the year out of shape or unfamiliar with their teammates. but there’s no question that guys like Melo and Chandler and Amare ratchet up the intensity as the year goes on, and that the playoffs are at a different level entirely. I almost never agree with Barkley, but when he called the regular season the preseason, he could not have been more right.

    194. jon abbey

      Owen:
      Also, Jon, I think the idea that scoring is a unique talent that can’t be replaced is highly questionable. It’s efficent scoring with good peripherals that’s hard to replace.

      right, this is what I don’t agree with, especially against the tougher defenses in the more important games. there’s this idea that all rebounds are crucial but anyone can score, and I don’t think either of those is correct.

    195. Owen

      “I almost never agree with Barkley, but when he called the regular season the preseason, he could not have been more right.”

      Win a few more of those meaningless early season games and we are no longer looking down the barrel of a first round elimination at the hands of Chicago or Miami.

      Also, to my eye, Chandler has offered unstinting effort all the way through. The same clearly can’t be said for Melo.

      “right, this is what I don’t agree with, especially against the tougher defenses in the more important games.”

      Everyone plays worse against the tougher defenses. By definition. I don’t know, some people love to judge players by how they play in “statement” games. I don’t.

    196. jon abbey

      Chandler has clearly given bigger efforts in some of the big games in recent weeks. the two areas where this is evident is his offensive game and his tipping loose balls out to the perimeter. he’s been great all year, but at a different level in some of the recent games. again, not sure if this is evident via any stats or not.

    197. jon abbey

      Owen:

      Everyone plays worse against the tougher defenses. By definition. I don’t know, some people love to judge players by how they play in “statement” games. I don’t.

      right, because there’s no way to do this statistically. to me, it makes no sense not to give guys more credit for doing well in big games, and to dock them for coming up short in those same games.

      it also hits my pet peeve of awarding the MVP based on the regular season, so you have MVPs like David Robinson/Karl Malone/Derrick Rose all abused by superior players in the games that really matter (Hakeem/Jordan/LeBron respectively), very silly way to do things.

    198. Owen

      Maybe, I don’t get to watch every minute of every game like I used to.

      I do think in general though that everything looks a little different when you are in danger of being eliminated from the playoffs.

      And I don’t think anyone could play harder than Chandler did during our Linsanity stretch.

      I think he is clearly this team’s MVP and best player hands down.

      (that’s my parting shot at Ruru) ;-)

    199. Gideon Zaga

      Yes Cock back finally. Owen vs Ruru made me forget how much exciting Abbey vs THCJ was. That’s our version of Manny vs Floyd, except in our case I don’t know who is the undefeated Floyd lol

    200. formido

      The claim that there are so many errors in the data that it’s basically worthless is obvious nonsense. If so many steals were misattributed that the data was nonsense, steals rates would have no predictive value. But, in fact, just like other stats, you can absolutely predict future steals for players from past results. Steals rates are NOT in fact randomly fluctuating.

      Unfortunately, the human brain is governed by cognitive biases. Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel prize for his research into them and these days, at least in the circles I run, it’s well known that bias is the rule, not the exception. Everyone knows about confirmation bias: You see a guy who you don’t think can play defense, and the first time he gets burned it’s “confirmed” for you, perhaps despite plenty of strong defensive play leading up to it. Basketball forums, including this one, are rife with confirmation bias.

      As far as I can guess, the reason a vocal contingent of people dismiss objective analysis is because, as it gets stronger, it threatens to refute their subjective analysis.

    201. Juany8

      My absolute biggest problem with advanced statistics is the ridiculous assumption that the average of a random sample automatically tells you ANYTHING about the sample itself. Unless the random variable (let’s say rebounds per game for instance) is normally distributed, the average isn’t even a good measure of central tendency, and either way it totally ignores the individual variance and bias present within every tabulated box score in the NBA. The linear metrics in use today are not really scientific analysis in and of themselves, they’re advanced fantasy basketball with complicated formulas.

      Some statistics are valuable, but they’re never the generalized statistics thrown around. For example, I find it very informing to look at Synergy information on different types of scoring plays, or Shot location info from hoopdata. TS% says little about a player’s ability to shoot, it only describes the location and type of shots a player happens to take.

      Chandler has the highest TS% in the league because he only takes super high percentage shots, not because he is actually the most efficient player in the league. He actually has a very similar eFG% on shots at the rim compared to Dwight Howard (both are around 75% at the rim) but Dwight Howard has a 56.9 TS% while Tyson Chandler has a 70.3 TS%. Penalizing Dwight Howard’s offensive contributions because he is capable of efficiently making much harder shots or because he’s much better at getting to the foul line is ridiculous. Taken independently of any context, TS% would have you believe that Tyson Chandler is a better offensive player than Dwight Howard in some regard, which is just not true

    202. jon abbey

      formido:
      The claim that there are so many errors in the data that it’s basically worthless is obvious nonsense. If so many steals were misattributed that the data was nonsense, steals rates would have no predictive value. But, in fact, just like other stats, you can absolutely predict future steals for players from past results. Steals rates are NOT in fact randomly fluctuating.

      there is a lot of room between being correct and randomly fluctuating.

      as for steals, it seems as if they’re just very stingy, giving maybe 2/3 of what they should, and often to the person grabbing the loose ball instead of the one who actually initially disrupts the play. also, plays where turnovers are forced but the ball goes out of bounds are totally ignored.

      I would have more respect for basketball stats if rebounds, assists, steals, were all split up when appropriate. for instance, if Melo is doubled, swings the ball, and two crisp passes later, Novak is open for a jumper, give those three players 1/3 of an assist each. if two guys go for an uncontested rebound, give each of them 1/2 a rebound.

      and Owen is another Kahneman lover, he’s recommended his book to me here before. as with anything else, some people have more accurate intuition and understanding than others.

    203. Juany8

      formido:
      The claim that there are so many errors in the data that it’s basically worthless is obvious nonsense. If so many steals were misattributed that the data was nonsense, steals rates would have no predictive value. But, in fact, just like other stats, you can absolutely predict future steals for players from past results. Steals rates are NOT in fact randomly fluctuating.

      Unfortunately, the human brain is governed by cognitive biases. Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel prize for his research into them and these days, at least in the circles I run, it’s well known that bias is the rule, not the exception. Everyone knows about confirmation bias: You see a guy who you don’t think can play defense, and the first time he gets burned it’s “confirmed” for you, perhaps despite plenty of strong defensive play leading up to it. Basketball forums, including this one, are rife with confirmation bias.

      As far as I can guess, the reason a vocal contingent of people dismiss objective analysis is because, as it gets stronger, it threatens to refute their subjective analysis.

      The statistics themselves can be consistent and have absolutely no real informative value. Precision and validity are two totally different things, just because a player’s production can be accurately predicted still tells you absolutely nothing about the actual value of that production. I figured Faried would put up around the numbers he is putting up, for instance, so knowing that he’d get a lot of rebounds and score efficiently at a low usage is not something you’d need an analytical model to predict. Translating that production into Win% is quite a bit harder, especially once you realize that two players getting the same exact statistics does not mean they had the exact same value. It’s simply not a linear relationship

    204. max fisher-cohen

      Yes, all you want out of an all-in-one metric is that it is somewhat predictive of wins. Its purpose is to simplify so OF COURSE it is going to be wrong sometimes and have flaws. It’s like criticizing an MP3 for not sounding like the raw recording. Of course it doesn’t but it also contains about 10x less info (and thus takes up 10x less space). Like an all-in-one metric, that’s it’s PURPOSE — to try to capture the music (or in the case of an advanced statistic, the player’s value) as clearly as possible while minimizing the amount of information in presents to the viewer (or listener).

      Worse than MP3s, basketball metrics are at a disadvantage because their baseline is not even the raw product. THey start with box score statistics, which are derivative of the raw product (the game itself), so to expect them to be flawless is asinine.

      The fact that a person has to dig up exceptions is evidence that a metric is at least doing SOMETHING right. The questions is how much does it do right, and how can its flaws be improved without creating new flaws?

      We need metrics though because we can’t sit down and review every game tape of every game a player has had every time we have a discussion, every time we try to evaluate that player, and for all their flaws, these metrics have one thing going for them: they aren’t subjective. They don’t like one player more because of what team he played for or because he had a freakin amazing dunk on sportscenter or because he scored 40 points in three straight games. That’s something that humans do, and furthermore, humans are different in what they perceive. Some people might notice the amazing blocks and steals and big man defense while ignoring the idiotic shots that player takes or vice versa. People tend to see things to fit what they WANT to be the truth rather than the truth itself.

      Therefore, I’ll take a comparison of a player’s advanced stats any day over some bound-to-be-biased discussion of the player’s…

    205. Juany8

      jon abbey:
      and Owen is another Kahneman lover, he’s recommended his book to me here before. as with anything else, some people have more accurate intuition and understanding than others.

      +100, people become experts at things all the time, and almost always it involves dealing with the natural biases that come with being human. Statistics also have their own inherent biases, they just happen to be carefully hidden from anyone who doesn’t totally understand the math involved. In fact, for most scientific research, observation tends to be more important than the numbers involved, until you understand what’s physically happening the numbers hold no meaning.

    206. Bruno Almeida

      Robert Silverman:
      Wait, is there really a player named “Ant Rand??” I thought it was an arch Radical Objectivism joke.

      Oh. Anthony Randolph. Derp

      lol me too, I was preparing to swear at Ayn Rand and then I reread it.

    207. JC Knickfan

      nicos: He’s actually slightly above league average for a PF this year.He was awful last year esp. considering he played a lot of 5 but he’s been fine this year. And for his career, he’s probably a little above average.He’s not a great rebounder but he’s not nearly as bad as people make him out to be- his numbers this year have been better than the numbers Melo has put up since he shifted to the 4 so it’s hard to say that the team’s numbers wouldn’t improve when he comes back.

      Amare horrible team rebounder. Most rebound is him just standing one side basket and by law average falls to him. Does horrible job boxing out or tangling himself with offensive player to let one teammate get the rebound. You seldom see Amare do TC tip ball to one of teammates.
      If your 6 10 and have above average hops of course your going get some rebounds due defensive positioning.
      We need his backup to be his polar opposite of him. JJ fits the bill, but he just as fragile as Amare. How many game will miss if we resign next year?
      Definitely offseason we need another PF big man. Jort and James, I think too slow for PF position.
      Kim kardashian ex-bitch Kris Humphries I think would really good fit for us, but of course too expensive to get.

    208. ruruland

      MFC:

      “Therefore, I’ll take a comparison of a player’s advanced stats any day over some bound-to-be-biased discussion of the player’s”

      I really like your original analogy. But I don’t see why advanced stats need to be at total odds with subjective observation — I think there is some level of empiricism.

      In fact, they should ideally go in hand-in-hand.

      The whole idea — to me at least– of advanced stats, is to get a better idea of raw performance. While it still leaves much to be desired for individual players, I think advanced stats are best when applied to five man units or teams.

      It’s much more difficult to measure how a play, let along hundreds and thousands, by their individual parts than it is to measure the final result of a unit’s output.

    209. ruruland

      Bruno Almeida: lol me too, I was preparing to swear at Ayn Rand and then I reread it.

      I mean, I know we’re all excited that “Atlas Shrugged Part 2″ is almost out.

    210. ruruland

      Juany8: The statistics themselves can be consistent and have absolutely no real informative value. Precision and validity are two totally different things, just because a player’s production can be accurately predicted still tells you absolutely nothing about the actual value of that production. I figured Faried would put up around the numbers he is putting up, for instance, so knowing that he’d get a lot of rebounds and score efficiently at a low usage is not something you’d need an analytical model to predict. Translating that production into Win% is quite a bit harder, especially once you realize that two players getting the same exact statistics does not mean they had the exact same value. It’s simply not a linear relationship

      Whenever Juany shows up in this discussion it typically ends. That’s no coincidence. Love your insight.

    211. Gideon Zaga

      Stats are flawed, the eye test is also flawed but we all know that the eye isn’t perfect. It’s when you tell me that these numbers don’t lie and the fact the Harden has a higher TS% than Melo means that Harden is more valuable without even taking into account player roles and the variables that surround them. Yeah maybe if Harden was being dumped on with the ball with 5 seconds on the clock then his TS will plummet too. I agree with everything Abbey’s stand. Stats are flawed not just the advanced stats, they are flawed at the core, the base or where they are collected. These numbers lie their asses off.

    212. ruruland

      jon abbey: there is a lot of room between being correct and randomly fluctuating. as for steals, it seems as if they’re just very stingy, giving maybe 2/3 of what they should, and often to the person grabbing the loose ball instead of the one who actually initially disrupts the play. also, plays where turnovers are forced but the ball goes out of bounds are totally ignored.I would have more respect for basketball stats if rebounds, assists, steals, were all split up when appropriate. for instance, if Melo is doubled, swings the ball, and two crisp passes later, Novak is open for a jumper, give those three players 1/3 of an assist each. if two guys go for an uncontested rebound, give each of them 1/2 a rebound. and Owen is another Kahneman lover, he’s recommended his book to me here before. as with anything else, some people have more accurate intuition and understanding than others.

      Abbey and I are in total agreement on this aspect of it.

      In other words, it would be like saying one shortstop is better than another shortstop because he has more put-outs.

      Uh, no, his pitchers pitch to contact more frequently. We don’t have range factor yet in the NBA.

      That is to say, every single outcome is treated the exact same way.

      As you said, if Melo gets doubled –as he so frequently has in his career–and that creates a shot for a teammates 5-7 seconds later against a rotation, Melo isn’t getting any credit for creating that play.

      The end result is often disproportionately rewarded to the wrong player. Advanced stats are incredibly biased towards opportunity players and specialists. Guys who either scavenge off the work of others or are fed easy opportunities by teammates.

      That’s just the beggining of it for me.

    213. jon abbey

      it’s actually why I think +/- can be useful, as it implicitly contains elements like that that no other stats do.

      there’s lots of noise in that too (like Fields coasting behind Melo’s production in the first quarter last night), but it also covers ground that no other stat does (that I know of).

    214. ruruland

      Owen: I think Harden could adjust to being a primary scorer quite easily. I don’t think he’d post a 65% ts% because it’s never been done. He is also really really good in other aspects of the game. Given a choice between Harden and Melo I would take Harden in a second. P>

      We don’t know Harden won’t get maxed.

      Let me ask you this, Owen. We understand you believe that Andre Iguodala and Luol Deng, among a few hundred others, are better players then Melo (even though the advanced stats don’t support it).

      Given this contradiction in logic (if it can be so said), then we must assume you place a “hueristic” value on players with reputations as great defenders.

      Extending this logic now, how can you NOT believe that Harden’s efficiency isn’t considerably misleading?

      Given that you pick and choose when advanced stats matter — and that you’ve chosen Harden as a player who’sefficiency matters and that you seem to have a bias towards players with defensive reputations, how do you resolve this contradiction?

      Shouldn’t you feel that Harden’s efficiency would be greatly diminished if: a)he didn’t play against second teamers for many of his minutes b) he didn’t play against opponents second or third best wing defenders when he’s on the floor against opposing starters (sharing minutes with Durant and Westbrook)

      Harden doesn’t face any of the elite defenders, and often doesn’t even face team’s second best wing defenders…. To say nothing of the fact that Harden isn’t facing team defenses designed to stop him specifically.

      This is not simpy a matter of usage. In fact, the big trio’s usage will often be tilted in Harden’sfavor.

      Why? Because he faces the weakest defender;he has the biggest mismatch.To say nothing of the peripheral effects of playing with Westbrook andDurant on the floor.

    215. ruruland

      Owen: “I almost never agree with Barkley, but when he called the regular season the preseason, he could not have been more right.”Win a few more of those meaningless early season games and we are no longer looking down the barrel of a first round elimination at the hands of Chicago or Miami. Also, to my eye, Chandler has offered unstinting effort all the way through. The same clearly can’t be said for Melo. “right, this is what I don’t agree with, especially against the tougher defenses in the more important games.”Everyone plays worse against the tougher defenses. By definition. I don’t know, some people love to judge players by how they play in “statement” games. I don’t.

      Actually, there have been quite a few games where Chandler’s effort was not great. Considering he can essentially take off 70-80 percent of the team’s offensive possessions, it’s hard to say he playsfar and away the hardest of any player not named Shump– I think it’s true on defense, but Tyson doesn’t exert anywhere near the kind of energy Melo does offensively–shot creation is difficult, just as hedging screens, recovering to shooters and rooting out big men inside is hard work.

      If you actually believe that melo was the only player not working as hardunder MDA as hehas been under Woodson, then it’s very difficult to not credit Melo for the huge turnaround.

      And, implicitly, if you credit Melo for the turnaround, what does it say about an individual player when he can, by simply playing harder, turn a sub.500 team into a 70% win team???

      That player would seemingly be extremely valuable.

    216. ruruland

      Owen: Maybe, I don’t get to watch every minute of every game like I used to. I do think in general though that everything looks a little different when you are in danger of being eliminated from the playoffs. And I don’t think anyone could play harder than Chandler did during our Linsanity stretch. I think he is clearly this team’s MVP and best player hands down.(that’s my parting shot at Ruru) ;-)

      I think Chandler has definitely been the MVP of the team, but he simply does not have the same kind of impact Melo has when Melo plays like he’s capable and given the keys to the car.

      Melo, playing well, is a GREAT player, one of the5-10 best in the NBA without a doubt. Chandler can never have the impact of a top 5 or 10 player because he simply does do anywhere near enough on one end of the floor. Indeed, he’s very, what do we call it? One-dimensional (actually, I love Chandler and hate it when one-dimensional is mis-applied. Chandler does a lot more than one thing well.)

      As for Harden, when he can put 32-33 ppg on around 60 TS with no other offensive threat on the floor, against all of the best defenses and defenders in the NBA (and do it when his team needs him most), then yeah, maybe you have to consider Harden over Melo.

    217. ruruland

      We need to root hard for Miami tonight. The otherway to avoid the Heat if the 6th seed doesn’t work out is for Miami to re-gain top seed. They’ll be one back if they win. Chicago plays @ Indiana and a Dallas team desperate for wins. There’s a chance there for sure.

    218. massive

      It never ceases to amaze me how an undersized shooting guard with no consistent scoring game outside of 15 feet can be so good. Dwyane Wade’s athleticism really takes him far.

    219. daJudge

      The human brain also cognitively assimilates information at an incredibly quick rate (perhaps outside of conventional time) and formulates opinions and insight from that process, which is why we are an evolving surviving species. The abstract bits of information that we use as stats are measurable, but are neither exclusive nor exhaustive. But they are measurable, so the stats certainly help. But even with the so called biases, many of our subjective impressions are highly useful and often valid. Why not combine the two approaches? This is particularly germane with folks that are immersed in the subject matter and also adept at using the abstract measurements. It’s like a Frankenstein’s monster created out of the corpses of Jon and THCJ.

      formido:
      The claim that there are so many errors in the data that it’s basically worthless is obvious nonsense. If so many steals were misattributed that the data was nonsense, steals rates would have no predictive value. But, in fact, just like other stats, you can absolutely predict future steals for players from past results. Steals rates are NOT in fact randomly fluctuating.

      Unfortunately, the human brain is governed by cognitive biases. Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel prize for his research into them and these days, at least in the circles I run, it’s well known that bias is the rule, not the exception. Everyone knows about confirmation bias: You see a guy who you don’t think can play defense, and the first time he gets burned it’s “confirmed” for you, perhaps despite plenty of strong defensive play leading up to it. Basketball forums, including this one, are rife with confirmation bias.

      As far as I can guess, the reason a vocal contingent of people dismiss objective analysis is because, as it gets stronger, it threatens to refute their subjective analysis.

    220. ruruland

      daJudge: The human brain also cognitively assimilates information at an incredibly quick rate (perhaps outside of conventional time) and formulates opinions and insight from that process, which is why we are an evolving surviving species. The abstract bits of information that we use as stats are measurable, but are neither exclusive nor exhaustive. But they are measurable, so the stats certainly help. But even with the so called biases, many of our subjective impressions are highly useful and often valid. Why not combine the two approaches? This is particularly germane with folks that are immersed in the subject matter and also adept at using the abstract measurements. It’s like a Frankenstein’s monster created out of the corpses of Jon and THCJ.

      +1

    221. StatsTeacher

      Z-man:
      Playoffs 2 years in a row, woo-hoo! Man, did the Bucks fold or what?

      The Bucks were chippy tonight, almost had a mini-brawl. For a minute looked like a Dunleavy/Sanders vs West/Granger WWF. Techs for everyone. Skiles didn’t even leave the bench, I think he liked that they were willing to fight at the end. What killed them (among other events) was losing in DC last night.

    222. Z-man

      One thing that is getting overlooked is how well Indiana has played pretty much all year but especially lately. I know we’d prefer playing them to the Bulls or Heat, but they’re no slouches.

    223. BigBlueAL

      daJudge:
      I know this has been asked and answered, but what happens if the Knicks and the Magic tie?

      Knicks have tie-breaker since they won the season series 2-1.

    224. BigBlueAL

      Knicks make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons!! A far cry from the 14 straight playoff appearances between 1988-2001 but hey its a start lol

    225. daJudge

      Thank you BBA. Off the topic, but Jon, I think you’re involved with the music scene somehow. Sorry to read that the great Levon Helm died today. He was something else!

    226. jon abbey

      daJudge:
      Thank you BBA.Off the topic, but Jon, I think you’re involved with the music scene somehow.Sorry to read that the great Levon Helm died today.He was something else!

      yep, played their second self-titled record today.

      in the playoffs! such a good job by Woodson, it will be a real shame if he doesn’t get a multiyear deal out of this.

    227. JC Knickfan

      Now Miami reasonable chance get the 1st seed. Star could align we move up 6th spot. We match reasonable well against Indy and then get Bulls in 2nd round. These next 7 days could be very interesting.

    228. johnlocke

      He’s a beast on the low block and has mastered the bank shot and has great handle and maniacally competitive….love how he plays.

      massive:
      It never ceases to amaze me how an undersized shooting guard with no consistent scoring game outside of 15 feet can be so good. Dwyane Wade’s athleticism really takes him far.

    229. jon abbey

      johnlocke:
      He’s a beast on the low block and has mastered the bank shot and has great handle and maniacally competitive….love how he plays.

      he’s also an incredible cheap shot artist. I’m always amazed he doesn’t get more flak for this, but I guess it’s because he has a good reputation.

    230. DS

      3 of Orlando’s last 4 games are against West Conf. teams who could very well be jockeying for playoff spots; Utah (bravo, by the way), Denver, and Memphis. Unfortunately, I think Orlando may have tanked just a day or two too late.

      P.S. Ain’t to proud to beg for fans of Woodsanity on Facebook:
      http://www.facebook.com/Woodsonity

    231. nicos

      ruruland: I think Chandler has definitely been the MVP of the team, but he simply does not have the same kind of impact Melo has when Melo plays like he’s capable and given the keys to the car.

      Melo, playing well, is a GREAT player, one of the5-10 best in the NBA without a doubt. Chandler can never have the impact of a top 5 or 10 player because he simply does do anywhere near enough on one end of the floor. Indeed, he’s very, what do we call it? One-dimensional (actually, I love Chandler and hate it when one-dimensional is mis-applied. Chandler does a lot more than one thing well.)

      Disagree- Chandler is arguably the best defensive player in the game- certainly top 5. And I’d say his efficiency and offensive rebounding make him a solidly above average offensive player as well. I’d say Melo at his best defensively is no better than Chandler is on the offensive end- very good man defender, still not a great help defender or transition defender. Maybe over the last 13 games Melo has been as good offensively as Chandler has been on D (maybe) but over the course of a full season… The Knicks were 22nd in defensive rating last year, this year they’re 5th- some of that is Shump but most of it is Chandler. Could Melo’s presence do the same for the 22nd ranked offensive team? If he played the way he’s played for this last stretch maybe but it’s no sure thing.

    232. ruruland

      nicos: Disagree- Chandler is arguably the best defensive player in the game- certainly top 5. And I’d say his efficiency and offensive rebounding make him a solidly above average offensive player as well. I’d say Melo at his best defensively is no better than Chandler is on the offensive end- very good man defender, still not a great help defender or transition defender. Maybe over the last 13 games Melo has been as good offensively as Chandler has been on D (maybe) but over the course of a full season… The Knicks were 22nd in defensive rating last year, this year they’re 5th- some of that is Shump but most of it is Chandler. Could Melo’s presence do the same for the 22nd ranked offensive team? If he played the way he’s played for this last stretch maybe but it’s no sure thing.

      Right, Chandler is a good offensive rebounder for a center and sets solid screens. The fact that he finishes wide open dunks is nice, but he’s absolutely not a threat to do anything with the ball and actually makes it more to difficult to play offense because there are no plays you can run to him, and there are no plays where he can convert on the defense without being at the basket, or with a clear lane to it. He fundamentally hurts the offense compared to a good offensive center who can do a few things.

      Melo at his best defensively– what we saw when he could conserve some of his energy from offense –is great. He was not just playing good man defense when Lin and Amar’e where healthy, he was all over the place and consistently sprinting back.

      He’s not going to be a great defender all the time when he’s carrying the load on offense.

      Melo’s played on quite a few top ten defenses in his career.

      The last 13 games, what Melo has done offensively, is clearly better than what Chandler does defensively — and Chandler is a top 5 defensive player.

    233. ruruland

      I sort of left out the premise which is that great offense is more valuable than great defense every time.

      There just aren’t a lot of guys who can produce great offense against great defense.Melo’s done just that.

      It would be like Chandler not just shutting down a healthy and focused Dwight Howard, without the double teams, but also getting blocked shots,pestering shooters, and getting a lot more rebounds.

      That, to me, is what Melo is doing offensively — taking on great defenders, taking on tilted defenses, producing very efficientlywith extremely high usage against great defensive teams geared to stop him, and creating a large percentage of the team’s good shots.

    234. DS

      DS:
      Let’s revisit this debate AFTER Carmelo surpasses Lou Williams in Win Shares for this season.

      You schmuck, that already happened. You must mean WS/48 where Lou Williams leads ‘Melo.

    235. DS

      Defensive abilities aside, Chandler gets 11.5 ppg with about a 3rd of the usage while you could argue ‘Melo should be passing the ball rather than forcing it up against against “great defensive teams geared to stop him.”

      Chandler was the common denominator in both Linsanity and Woodsanity.

    236. johnlocke

      Disagree with your premise. Melo has been in beast mode but great defense can be much more consistently relied on than great offense. The vast majority of Championship teams all have a bedrock of strong defense.

      Also I think you’re underrating Chandlers value offensively. Setting screens, cutting and offensive tap outs are extremely valuable and he has demonstrated himself as a strong pick and roll finisher. Chandler is the MVP of the season. He is not hurting the team offensively.

      Having said all that Melo is the MVP of the last 13 games or so, because of what he is doing in O and D as a two-way player. I’m rooting for him to keep it up. But T1000 is the man, don’t brush his impact aside in the O.

      ruruland:
      I sort of left out the premise which is that great offense is more valuable than great defense every time.

      There just aren’t a lot of guys who can produce great offense against great defense.Melo’s done just that.

      It would be like Chandler not just shutting down a healthy and focused Dwight Howard, without the double teams, but also getting blocked shots,pestering shooters, and getting a lot more rebounds.

      That, to me, is what Melo is doing offensively — taking on great defenders, taking on tilted defenses, producing very efficientlywith extremely high usage against great defensive teams geared to stop him, and creating a large percentage of the team’s good shots.

    237. nicos

      ruruland: Right, Chandler is a good offensive rebounder for a center and sets solid screens. The fact that he finishes wide open dunks is nice, but he’s absolutely not a threat to do anything with the ball and actually makes it more to difficult to play offense because there are no plays you can run to him, and there are no plays where he can convert on the defense without being at the basket, or with a clear lane to it. He fundamentally hurts the offense compared to a good offensive center who can do a few things.

      Melo at his best defensively– what we saw when he could conserve some of his energy from offense –is great. He was not just playing good man defense when Lin and Amar’e where healthy, he was all over the place and consistently sprinting back.

      He’s not going to be a great defender all the time when he’s carrying the load on offense.

      Melo’s played on quite a few top ten defenses in his career.

      The last 13 games, what Melo has done offensively, is clearly better than what Chandler does defensively — and Chandler is a top 5 defensive player.

      I think you overrate Melo’s defense- if nothing else, wing defenders have less value than guys who can pressure guards on the ball or defend the rim neither of which Melo does well. When he’s really working hard he’s effective but he doesn’t have the defensive IQ of someone like Jeffries who knows both where he should be and where his teammates are supposed to be (and tells them to get there). I’ve been really impressed with his effort level- both in the post and getting out to shooters on rotation but he’s pretty useless as an interior help defender.
      Two, Chandler is as active a big on the perimeter as I’ve ever seen with maybe the exception of KG- He influences just about every play on that end of the floor every bit as much as Melo does on the offensive end AND he’s a great…

    238. ruruland

      DS: Defensive abilities aside, Chandler gets 11.5 ppg with about a 3rd of the usage while you could argue ‘Melo should be passing the ball rather than forcing it up against against “great defensive teams geared to stop him.” Chandler was the common denominator in both Linsanity and Woodsanity.

      See, this is where we have big differences. Please propose ways for Chandler to get more involved.

    239. ruruland

      johnlocke: Disagree with your premise. Melo has been in beast mode but great defense can be much more consistently relied on than great offense. The vast majority of Championship teams all have a bedrock of strong defense.Also I think you’re underrating Chandlers value offensively. Setting screens, cutting and offensive tap outs are extremely valuable and he has demonstrated himself as a strong pick and roll finisher. Chandler is the MVP of the season. He is not hurting the team offensively.Having said all that Melo is the MVP of the last 13 games or so, because of what he is doing in O and D as a two-way player. I’m rooting for him to keep it up. But T1000 is the man, don’t brush his impact aside in the O.

      I love Chandler, don’t get that twisted and he has without a doubt been one of the most valuable players in the entire league–total stand-up guy, positive leadership, culture changer much like KG (complete opposite personalities) and one of the 3-5 best, most impactful defensive players in the game.

      He’s fantastically good in his extremely limited role on offense, but I don’t think that’s enough to qualify him as a “good” offensive center.

      Here are the good offensive centers who start: Gortat, Howard, Peckovic, Bynum, Hibbert, Monroe, Duncan, Gasol, Brook Lopez, Bargnani, Horford, Nene, Jefferson, Bogut, DeMarcus Cousins,

      In-between: Ibaka, Dalambert, Kaman,

      Here are the high efficiency centers who are opportunity players: Noah, Chandler, Varejao, DeAndre Jordan (.615 career TS, 12.7 usage), healthy Pryzbilla, Joel Anthony, Collison.

      I’d say Chandler is the best opportunity center in the NBA, and clearly a better offensive player than Dalambert and Kaman, but not what you would call a good offensive center.

    240. Gideon Zaga

      This argument is quite simple TC makes his team mates better on the defensive end while Melo makes them better on the offensive end. Both are very valuable and you can’t fully quantify their worth. But the relationship is quite symbiotic.

    241. ruruland

      I’d take a 570-580TS on 20-22 percent usage over a 680-700 TS on 12.9 percent. If you consider that while there’s a 100-120 point TS difference, and just an 8 percent usage difference, the player with the higher usage is a) creating better shots for himself than he would most of his teammates, especially those with extremely low efficiency guards b) creating better shots for his guards merely by handling the ball and creating defensive attention (something not typically shown in usage) c) creating better shots at the rim or on the perimeter because he threatens the defense even without the ball (prescence points I call ‘em).

      And yes, unfortunately, a player who cannot make a shot outside of three feet, nor one who can make a shot without someone setting him is a detriment offensively (as is). Chandler goes from being a big net negative to a total wash because he’s a really good finisher and ft shooter, a solid offensive rebounder, and a solid screen setter — that takes to a zero sum wash, or slightly above in my book— especially on a team that throughout the year has been indire need of a scoring prescence inside.

    242. Gideon Zaga

      Well you also overrated Chandler’s offense. All I’m saying is TC and Melo is like a perfect marriage, opposites do attract you know. Oldest play in the book.

      nicos: I think you overrate Melo’s defense- if nothing else, wing defenders have less value than guys who can pressure guards on the ball or defend the rim neither of which Melo does well.When he’s really working hard he’s effective but he doesn’t have the defensive IQ of someone like Jeffries who knows both where he should be and where his teammates are supposed to be (and tells them to get there).I’ve been really impressed with his effort level- both in the post and getting out to shooters on rotation but he’s pretty useless as an interior help defender.
      Two, Chandler is as active a big on the perimeter as I’ve ever seen with maybe the exception of KG- He influences just about every play on that end of the floor every bit as much as Melo does on the offensive end AND he’s a great…

    243. nicos

      ruruland: See, this is where we have big differences. Please propose ways for Chandler to get more involved.

      I’m with ruru on this one- even during Linsanity with both Amar’e and Melo out his usage was only about 17. And his high TS% is mitigated a bit by his high turnovers (and probably just as many turnovers by guards trying to force the ball into him which doesn’t show up in Chandler’s numbers). His numbers are still great but I think he’s pretty much maxed out unless he develops some kind of faceup jumper (which would lower his TS but could really increase his usage).
      And not to beat a dead horse but to get back to Melo’s defense- even at his absolute best he’s at best the 4th best defender on the Knicks behind Chandler, Shump, and Jeffries. I’d say JR has been as good or better and a healthy BD would most likely be more of an impact guy as well. On the Bulls he’d be at best 6th behind Deng, Noah, Brewer, Gibson and Asik. On the Heat, LBJ, Wade, Anthony, and probably still Battier are better. On OKC, Ibaka, Perkins, Collison, Westbrook and Sefolosha all have more impact on that end of the floor. And so on- He’s been good, but even at his best he’s not really a difference maker on defense. Also- while offensive guys who can score against good defenses may be rarer, even great offensive players go through slumps- a great defender should have much less variance in their ability to impact a game. Chandler’s had a few off games- he certainly wasn’t great against Miami last week- but he’s been very, very consistent.

    244. ruruland

      nicos: I think you overrate Melo’s defense- if nothing else, wing defenders have less value than guys who can pressure guards on the ball or defend the rim neither of which Melo does well. When he’s really working hard he’s effective but he doesn’t have the defensive IQ of someone like Jeffries who knows both where he should be and where his teammates are supposed to be (and tells them to get there). I’ve been really impressed with his effort level- both in the post and getting out to shooters on rotation but he’s pretty useless as an interior help defender.Two, Chandler is as active a big on the perimeter as I’ve ever seen with maybe the exception of KG- He influences just about every play on that end of the floor every bit as much as Melo does on the offensive end AND he’s a great…

      I agree, Chandler is just like KG in his ability to come out, harrass,and recover. and contest.

      He’s a great defensive player (but not an in-prime KG, because that guy could guard guards and hedge on screens as well as anyone ever has, Chandler might be more physical)…..

      But CHandler is not perfect defensively. His rate for acenter is merely solid, same with his block percentage. Now, I think his rebound rate is a little lower because he’s often outside contesting shots. But, he does get beat a lot more inside than great rebounding centers do. I also think blocked shots can be extremely empty as a stat, but one per game would make a truly incredibe, once-a-decade defender. I don’t know if he’s quite that.

      I really don’t want to go through that again. I hate coming off as though I’m criticizing this guy — really think the world about that guy.

    245. ruruland

      Gideon Zaga: This argument is quite simple TC makes his team mates better on the defensive end while Melo makes them better on the offensive end. Both are very valuable and you can’t fully quantify their worth. But the relationship is quite symbiotic.

      Yes, it seems like Knicks fans are always getting drawn in to debates about who is better on the team. I feel sick after that. They’re great compliments to one another and watching them together the next few years is going to be a blast, health willing (pray pray they stay healthy).

    246. ruruland

      nicos: I’m with ruru on this one- even during Linsanity with both Amar’e and Melo out his usage was only about 17. And his high TS% is mitigated a bit by his high turnovers (and probably just as many turnovers by guards trying to force the ball into him which doesn’t show up in Chandler’s numbers). His numbers are still great but I think he’s pretty much maxed out unless he develops some kind of faceup jumper (which would lower his TS but could really increase his usage).And not to beat a dead horse but to get back to Melo’s defense- even at his absolute best he’s at best the 4th best defender on the Knicks behind Chandler, Shump, and Jeffries. I’d say JR has been as good or better and a healthy BD would most likely be more of an impact guy as well. On the Bulls he’d be at best 6th behind Deng, Noah, Brewer, Gibson and Asik. On the Heat, LBJ, Wade, Anthony, and probably still Battier are better. On OKC, Ibaka, Perkins, Collison, Westbrook and Sefolosha all have more impact on that end of the floor. And so on- He’s been good, but even at his best he’s not really a difference maker on defense. Also- while offensive guys who can score against good defenses may be rarer, even great offensive players go through slumps- a great defender should have much less variance in their ability to impact a game. Chandler’s had a few off games- he certainly wasn’t great against Miami last week- but he’s been very, very consistent.

      Yeah, I’m willing to concede the point just so I don’t have to think about it anymore. I really think Chandler and Melo are forming a pretty coold leadership duo. I think Melo has become a better leader under Chandler’s guidance (and Melo has played with the full range of personalities and “leaders”) while Chandler has given Melo the opportunity to be a full leader on offense — talking, giving directions, owning the offense per se.

    247. jon abbey

      Gideon Zaga:
      This argument is quite simple TC makes his team mates better on the defensive end while Melo makes them better on the offensive end. Both are very valuable and you can’t fully quantify their worth. But the relationship is quite symbiotic.

      yep, it’s very similar to Dirk/Chandler, Iverson/Mutumbo and even Pierce/Garnett, although it remains to be seen if they can have anywhere near the success that those duos did at their peak.

    248. ruruland

      Something to think about and watch for: Memphis.

      In order for the Knicks to win the 6th seed, Orlando has to lose to Memphis on the last day of the regular season. Unfortunately, that means that Memphis HAS to be playing for something on that day (if they were playing the day before they may not know if their game would be important).

      Memphis is one loss behind the Clippers, which means that beating the Clippers next week will put Memphis in position to move to the four seed and get the critical HCA against LAC in the first round (and with an upset two rounds there).

      Memphis should be able to win out with an extremely soft schedule —@Charlotte Portland,Cleveland, Orlando.

      The Clippers have three games left and own tiebreaker: @Knicks @ Atlanta, New Orleans.

      That means in order for Memphis’ game to be meaningful they Clippers will have to lose to Atlanta and us…

    249. nicos

      And I’ll concede that Melo’s playing like a top 3-5 offensive guy right now, certainly top 10, so if he keeps this up he’d be more valuable than Chandler. And while I still think Melo could have handled himself a lot better this year, his teammates (besides Lin, maybe) all seem to genuinely like him which says he’s probably not as bad a guy as some people (meaning me and G. Karl) think.

    250. Gideon Zaga

      I know it’s been a bit overstated but there is some truth to this. Amare is the odd man out In the TC/Melo duo situation. What I would love to see when he returns is what Denver often did with Nene and sometimes K-mart. Surprisingly they’ve run it like twice already this season this season. When Melo gets the ball right or left mid to low post, Amare should zip or whatever they call it to the top of the key area and the free throw line area. This gives him two options; he either gets a mid range jumper when his man decides to help off to Melo or can beat his man off ball for a dive pass and dunk, if his man plays him too tight. I remember Denver running this with Nene in the paint and Kmart on the top of the free throw line area with Melo in the post during the Playoffs, surprised Ruru never mentioned this but if Woodson can’t figure it out then no extension for him.

    251. Gideon Zaga

      How do you know Lin doesn’t like him? Are you Jared Jefferies or the towel boy and who cares if he doesn’t like him. Good for him to continue like that, he should remember that he almost got cut because Dantoni was too stupid to check out all of his players, if his back wasn’t against the Wall again because Melo was dogging it he wouldn’t have a job like Dantoni now either. You Lin and Tebow fans, sheesh.

      nicos:
      And I’ll concede that Melo’s playing like a top 3-5 offensive guy right now, certainly top 10, so if he keeps this up he’d be more valuable than Chandler.And while I still think Melo could have handled himself a lot better this year, his teammates (besides Lin, maybe) all seem to genuinely like him which says he’s probably not as bad a guy as some people (meaning me and G. Karl) think.

    252. nicos

      And one last thing on Chandler: unlike a lot of guys with a 3 foot shooting range you still have to account for him 12 to 14 feet from the hoop because he’s so mobile- it’s tough to cheat too far off of him because as soon as his defender turns his head he cuts straight to the basket for a lob. He can’t spread the floor like Bargnani but I don’t think there’s that big a difference between him and people like Gortat, Jefferson, or Bogut in terms of spacing the floor.

    253. ruruland

      Gk has always had ups and downs with his star players (Gary Payton fueded for a long time, he wanted to trade Shawn Kemp in ’93, Ray Allen still hates him)

      GK had an up-and-down relationship with Melo, and of course they were both extremely bitter at the end, but let’s remember that they had a nice 20 minute talk before the Nuggets game at MSG.

      GK recently said this about Melo:
      Nuggets coach George Karl believes that Carmelo Anthony is eager to play with Jeremy Lin because his former player wants to get “that monkey of losing off his back.

      “They’ve got to figure out how to coexist with one another in a positive way, which I think everybody’s pretty excited about,” Karl told Bruce Murray on SiriusXM. “But there’s this little window of doubt, there’s this little window of, ‘Oh, it might not work.’ But my experience with Melo, Melo’s a very bright player. And he’s a great scorer but he can also be a great passer, he can be a great rebounder and he can be a very good defender. I think he’ll get excited about playing and getting back into the winning mode and getting that monkey of losing off his back. And I think you’re going to see him come out and prove the world wrong.

      “Carmelo Anthony’s a talented, talented, talented kid that wants to win a championship. He just hasn’t figured it out yet, and I think this is his opportunity to move in that direction.”

      Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/ny-knicks-rookie-iman-shumpert-compete-nba-slam-dunk-contest-jeremy-lin-reportedly-lend-a-hand-article-1.1023789#ixzz1sYhTCLp3

    254. nicos

      Gideon Zaga:
      How do you know Lin doesn’t like him? Are you Jared Jefferies or the towel boy and who cares if he doesn’t like him. Good for him to continue like that, he should remember that he almost got cut because Dantoni was too stupid to check out all of his players, if his back wasn’t against the Wall again because Melo was dogging it he wouldn’t have a job like Dantoni now either. You Lin and Tebow fans, sheesh.

      You’re right- that was my point- I don’t know Melo or anything about what goes on in the locker room so my perception of Melo as a person is totally meaningless.

    255. ruruland

      That was GK coming to Melo’s defense, really, at a time he was being skewered by the national and NY media.

      I think the things GK said and didn’t say about Melo right after the trade — look, those were the worst 3-4 months. The two were married to each other in many ways and had really developed a strong bond. GK helped Melo develop quite a bit, and saw him through his most difficult times. GK was there for Melo when he got into trouble. The figured it out in the early years and actually were pretty close during the Chauncey days….

      I think time heals and that GK’s strong feelings were indicative of a strong attachment to Melo, heartache that he wanted to go elsewhere.

      Of course, I don’t think GK is a stars coach in the first place, and this is the kind of team he’s always wanted, but you don’t go through everything they went through over 7 years—all the wars, all the long philosophical conversions where GK was trying to teach Melo how to be a complete player early in his career–without getting attached.

    256. ruruland

      nicos: And one last thing on Chandler: unlike a lot of guys with a 3 foot shooting range you still have to account for him 12 to 14 feet from the hoop because he’s so mobile- it’s tough to cheat too far off of him because as soon as his defender turns his head he cuts straight to the basket for a lob. He can’t spread the floor like Bargnani but I don’t think there’s that big a difference between him and people like Gortat, Jefferson, or Bogut in terms of spacing the floor.

      Good point about mobility. And he’s dangerous in screen and role action.

    257. ruruland

      Haha, what I have I been telling you about Gallo:

      “I’ve been trying to play winning basketball, and I know the stats matter more to you than me as long as we’re winning,” Gallinari said. “As Coach said, I need to be a little more aggressive and take a little more responsibility in the offense. You have to be positive.’

      Read more: Nuggets’ Danilo Gallinari staying “positive” through slump – The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/ci_20435186/nuggets-danilo-gallinari-staying-positive-through-slump#ixzz1sYn9oTuj
      Read The Denver Post’s Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

    258. Bruno Almeida

      jon abbey: yep, it’s very similar to Dirk/Chandler, Iverson/Mutumbo and even Pierce/Garnett, although it remains to be seen if they can have anywhere near the success that those duos did at their peak.

      however, Chandler has already proven that he can be a key piece to a championship team, while Melo hasn’t.

      you can’t win a title without a Chandler on your team, imo.

    259. ABG

      Interesting that Amare cut some side deal exclusive with Yahoo. Wonder how that will play with the NY media after he’s been ignoring them for a month?

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