Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Sunday, Feb 17 2013)

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks’ ‘Flight’ gets grounded during Slam Dunk competition (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 06:40:45 GMT)
    Knicks reserve James (Flight) White missed all seven of his dunk attempts in the second round and finished in last place in the Slam Dunk competition â?” ending a disappointing All-Star Saturday night for Big Apple participants.

  • [New York Daily News] Lupica: As Jordan turns 50, Knicks have new nemesis in LeBron (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 05:51:30 GMT)
    The Knicks aren’t going to get past LeBron James the way the old Knicks couldn’t get past Michael Jordan. Because they are in the same conference with one of the great all-around players and great team players in the history of basketball, now playing at the highest possible level.

  • [New York Times] Ross Wins Slam Dunk Title, Irving Top Long-Range Gunner (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 06:30:39 GMT)
    Toronto Raptors guard Terrence Ross won the NBA’s Slam Dunk Contest on Saturday with a one-handed, though-the-legs rim-rattler after leaping over a ballboy.

  • [New York Times] Raptors’ Ross and Cavs’ Irving Shine in Dunk and 3-Point Contests (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 06:04:48 GMT)
    The Toronto rookie Terrence Ross and Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving were the winners Saturday in the prelude to Sunday’s N.B.A. All-Star Game.

  • [New York Times] Ross Beats Evans in Dunk Contest (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 05:27:55 GMT)
    Terrence Ross had to settle his nerves at the start of the All-Star dunk contest. By the end, he was calming down a ball boy he needed as a prop for his winning slam.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Nets and Knicks Centers Become 2-Way Threats (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 05:04:17 GMT)
    Brook Lopez of the Nets and Tyson Chandler of the Knicks play the same position in the same city, but their styles could hardly be more different.

  • [New York Times] Ross Beats Evans in Dunk Contest (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 04:43:05 GMT)
    Toronto rookie Terrence Ross beat defending champion Jeremy Evans to win the slam-dunk contest during All-Star Saturday night.

  • [New York Times] New York to Host 2015 N.B.A. All-Star Game (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 03:43:41 GMT)
    Both Madison Square Garden and Barclays Center have applied to host the 2015 N.B.A. game. No other cities are under consideration, making it a near certainty that New York will host the game.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Players Dismiss Union Leader (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 03:43:23 GMT)
    Billy Hunter was fired by the N.B.A. players union on Saturday, ending his long and sometimes tumultuous tenure as executive director.

  • [New York Times] Kings Dominate Stern’s Last All-Star Briefing (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 02:57:58 GMT)
    No new details on Sacramento against Seattle, though the next All-Star decision might be New York versus New York.

  • [New York Times] Hunter Voted Out as Head of NBA Players’ Union (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 01:21:51 GMT)
    Billy Hunter was ousted from his job as executive director of the union in a unanimous vote by NBA players who said Saturday they will “no longer be divided, misled, misinformed.”

  • [New York Times] LSU Rolls Past Mississippi State, 80-68 (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 00:24:52 GMT)
    Charles Carmouche hit five 3-pointers on his way to a season-high 21 points, and the Tigers won for the fifth time in six games while handing Mississippi State its 10th straight loss, 80-68, on Saturday.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Fascination Lingers for Three Stars of Warriors’ Brief Run (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 00:18:41 GMT)
    In the Bay Area in the 1980s, the Golden State Warriors cornered the market on cool for sports.

  • [New York Times] 30 Seconds: With Greg Anthony (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 00:11:00 GMT)
    An interview with Greg Anthony, who was the Knicks’ first-round draft choice in 1991, and is now an analyst on Nets telecasts on the YES Network.

  • [New York Post] White’s â??Flight’ gets cut short (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 04:14:07 -0500)
    HOUSTON â?? James White has two dunks in regular season games for the Knicks this season, but could only finish one in last night’s Slam Dunk Contest.
    White’s participation in the annual All-Star Weekend event had been anticipated ever since he signed a one-year deal with the Knicks during…

  • [New York Post] Chandler’s gritty work earns first All-Star honor (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 04:09:50 -0500)
    HOUSTON â?? Grab your handy NBA player stats package. Go to the glory entry, scoring â?? the statistic almost everybody cares about. Find the All-Stars.
    There’s Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, James Harden. Keep going and find the Knicks’ Tyson Chandler. We’ll wait.
    Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook…

  • [New York Post] LeBron: I can be best ever (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 03:57:25 -0500)
    HOUSTON â?? LeBron James has the ability to be the greatest ever. Says who?
    LeBron James.
    “For me, I want to maximize my potential. I want to maximize the gifts I’ve been given and go out there and showcase it to the world every night I step on the floor…

  • [New York Post] Nets, Knicks favorites for ’15 game (Sun, 17 Feb 2013 03:57:25 -0500)
    HOUSTON â?? The All-Star Game appears to be headed back to the Big Apple.
    The Knicks and the Nets have both applied to host the NBA All-Star Game, and deputy commissioner Adam Silver said last night it’s likely one or the other will be hosting the event in 2015 â?? the…

  • 33 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Sunday, Feb 17 2013)

    1. Owen

      That’s really interesting actually, that Lin is on that list. He does have extremely quick hands, which I thought was a very underrated aspect of his game.

      I do miss Lin and I wish it could have worked, although its fair to say Lin and Melo were as duplicative as Melo and Stat.

      In other news, hard to quantify my disappointment with James White. I was expecting something amazing and maybe something life changing for him. But that was basically an epic fail…..

      Also, all the slam dunk misses, kind of ruin it for me. Hard to watch….

    2. Donnie Walsh

      JC Knickfan:
      I was looking at mid-season awards on NBA.com and found this on DPOY. Based on PMAR TC should #3 on list, but for some reason he listed much lower.

      There also one ex-Knick that was surprised to find on this list.

      http://www.nba.com/hoop/the_devil_is__the_dtails_2013_02_05.html

      That list doesn’t claim to be in order: just a “top 20″ group. That said, it is a little strange they are all placed in descending PMAR order with the lone exception of Chandler.

    3. flossy

      JC Knickfan:
      I was looking at mid-season awards on NBA.com and found this on DPOY. Based on PMAR TC should #3 on list, but for some reason he listed much lower.

      There also one ex-Knick that was surprised to find on this list.

      http://www.nba.com/hoop/the_devil_is__the_dtails_2013_02_05.html

      Josh Smith being listed as “Bulls Power Forward” scared me fore a minute. Steph Curry and “elite defender” being in the same article surprised me more than Lin, to be honest.

    4. jon abbey

      heh, Lin’s coach has benched him in crunch time more than a few times this year for incompetent defense. takeaway: we need better metrics, as always.

    5. Juany8

      jon abbey:
      heh, Lin’s coach has benched him in crunch time more than a few times this year for incompetent defense. takeaway: we need better metrics, as always.

      Yea that’s kind of what I was thinking lol… Although he does get steals and I’d say he can be an average even by next year. He just smashes into picks way too often to be even a mediocre pick and roll defender.

    6. Brian Cronin

      While I agree that Lin is not a standout defender, I don’t think going by anything Sampson did as a Rockets coach is too informative, since the times Sampson benched him for defense were idiotic. Douglas came in and did absolutely no better against the guys Lin was being lifted for (Lillard and Nate Robinson were the two most notable examples). The Chicago game was particularly ridiculous, as Robinson scores, like, 9 points in a few minutes on Douglas. Lin comes in and Robinson scores 8 points in a few minutes on Lin and Lin then gets pulled and benched the rest of the game.

      McHale is no great shakes, either, but he has not made Lin take a seat for defensive reasons (when he went to Beverley a few times, it was for offensive purposes).

    7. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey:
      heh, Lin’s coach has benched him in crunch time more than a few times this year for incompetent defense. takeaway: we need better metrics, as always.

      Appeal to authority.

    8. Unreason

      stats.NBA.com data as of the all-star break and some thoughts
      Top 8 Highest USG%
      Rank Baller USG% PACE TS% NetRtg AST%
      1 Melo 34.1% 92.20 56.4% 8.0 13.9%
      2 Westbrook 31.9% 96.08 52.2% 11.7 39.0%
      3 Kobe 31.2% 97.60 56.6% 1.8 26.9%
      4 Lebron 29.9% 93.81 63.7% 12.2 32.6%
      5 Durant 29.8% 95.45 65.7% 12.3 20.1%
      6 Irving 29.6% 97.23 56.7% -4.1 28.9%
      7 Harden 29.1% 99.26 60.0% 1.6 25.0%
      8 Wade 29.0% 94.20 56.8% 12.3 23.6%

      Teams ranked by # players in top 20 highest OffRtg
      Rank Team # on team Players
      1 OKC 6 Martin, Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Sefalosha, Perkins
      2 Heat 5 Chalmers, James, Wade, Bosh, Battier
      3 Knicks 5 Chandler, Felton, Anthony, Novak, Kidd
      4 Clips 3 Paul, Jordan, Griffin
      5 Rockets 1 Delfino

      Top 6 Teams by Win%
      Rank Team Win% TS% Rnk AST% Rnk OffRtg Rnk DefRtg Rnk
      1 Spurs .778 57.6% 3 63.1% 4 107.4 4 98.4 3
      2 OKC .736 58.3% 1 57.5% 22 110.0 2 99.5 6
      3 Heat .720 58.2% 2 57.4% 24 110.4 1 101.8 10
      4 Clips .696 55.1% 5 61.1% 10 106.5 7 99.7 8
      5 Griz .647 51.1% 25 57.5% 23 100.6 20 97.7 2
      6 Knicks .647 54.6% 6 53.6% 30 108.8 3 108.8 14

      Patterns
      1. Stars are OK. 4 of 6 top teams are very star-focused. A 5th, the Spurs is only slightly less so: Duncan & Parker are among top 15 in USG%.
      2. Bright stars are good. The NetRtg of Stars on top teams is much higher than those on star-focused teams that have struggled.
      3. Stop caring about sharing? Anthony dishes way less than the other high USG% stars. The assist numbers for the Knicks overall have been the worst in the league by some measures. Yet they are among the 4 of 6 top teams that have several non-stars with very high offensive productivity judging from OffRtg. And oddly enough, 3 of the top 6 teams have among the worst AST% in the league. Not something I expected.
      4. Which of these don’t belong (in the finals)? That’s easy. It’s the team with the OffRtg in the bottom 3rd of the league (Griz), oh and the one with the DefRtg equaling it’s OffRtg (Shit!).

    9. Unreason

      More thoughts
      Where’d that damned D go?
      To join the 4 elite teams (Heat, OKC, Spurs, Clips) our knoblemen must offer less hospitality toward honored contestants: “Hello my name is Raymond. I’ll be serving you this evening. May I suggest this charming little spot right over here?” The elite are all in the top 10 at holding down opponents FG%. The refined graciousness of the Knickerbockers, on the other hand, has been exceeded only by 11 clubs composed of even more lovely gentlepersons. Are there clues in the zones as which Knickers’ plusfours are most spotless? The problem is not in the paint (thank you TC, my apologies). Opponent FG% in just “the paint” itself, excluding the Restricted Area, is the lowest in the league. That misnamed “Restricted Area” has been an especially welcoming place though: 3rd worst in the league, in fact. Midrange shots and non-corner 3’s have been similarly awful. Coverage of the corners has been decent. I’d say a culture rather than a culprit is to blame. Coaches? Leaders? Time to step up.

    10. cgreene

      @12 I believe your stat about the Knicks DRtg is incorrect. Their O and D are not equal. According to ESPN the Knicks DRtg is 103.0 and ORtg is 108.8 and that their differential on Rtg is good. Still dont think they can compete w Miami.

    11. Z-man

      Not surprised that James White did so poorly, he said beforehand that he was not practicing for the contest. It really is a stupid contest, a drawn-out scrubfest with nowhere near the drama of the 3-pt contest for me. I think the skills competition is a joke as well.

      I think what they should do with the dunk competition is something like this:

      1. make most of the dunks mandatory standard “historic” dunks, e.g. the dunk from the FT line, the bounce-catch-reverse, etc. There is enough room for stylin’ within these dunks t make it interesting, and it would connect current dunkers with the greats of the past.
      2. max out at 2 attempts for a single dunk, or even a single “replacement” dunk per round like they had in the past. The missing the same dunk over and over is at best tedious and at worst painful to watch.
      3. Allow an “extra credit” dunk per round where dunkers can attempt their own more creative dunk (1-2 attempts, max) but not be basically eliminated if they don’t succeed as they are now.

      2.

    12. Z-man

      Re: Lin, he is playing well, there’s really no disputing that. He’s staying healthy and turning the ball over less lately, two major concerns at signing time. His 3-pt shooting is still an issue, but he’s not hurting the team by attempting too many. Still don’t think he was a no-brainer at what it would have cost to keep him, but he is certainly playing well enough to justify Morey’s offer.

    13. jon abbey

      the whole weekend is a waste of time, including tonight’s game. the Saturday night thing is the best argument for a DVR ever, I went through the 2:45 show in 45 minutes, and I could have done it faster.

    14. flossy

      Z-man:
      Re: Lin, he is playing well, there’s really no disputing that. He’s staying healthy and turning the ball over less lately, two major concerns at signing time. His 3-pt shooting is still an issue, but he’s not hurting the team by attempting too many. Still don’t think he was a no-brainer at what it would have cost to keep him, but he is certainly playing well enough to justify Morey’s offer.

      Yeah, he seems to be playing as well as an average starting PG, which for 32 mpg every night is worth roughly $8 million. But he seems to do well with the run and gun team they’ve got in Houston, and he seems to mesh well with Harden, insofar as he pushes the pace, distributes the ball and doesn’t get in the way. If he can improve his outside shooting, he’ll have been a great investment for Morey.

      Already the backcourt Morey assembled this summer is clearly better both on the court and, especially, from a value standpoint than another new, very hyped-up backcourt duo that came to be this past offseason…

      Backcourt A (74.4mpg) – 33.7 pts, 11.1 ast, 6.6 rebs, 1.5 st, 4.7 TOs

      2013 salary: $37 million
      2014 salary: $39 million

      Backcourt B (70.9mpg) – 38.7 pts, 11.9 ast, 8.2 rebs, 3.8 st (!!), 6.7 TOs

      2013 salary: $14 million
      2014 salary: $21 million

    15. JK47

      If you look at Lin’s last 40 games or so he has a .550 TS%, which is more or less the same number he had last year with the Knicks.

    16. Unreason

      cgreene: I believe your stat about the Knicks DRtg is incorrect. Their O and D are not equal. According to ESPN the Knicks DRtg is 103.0 and ORtg is 108.8 and that their differential on Rtg is good.

      You are right. Sorry. They’re DRgt is still ranked 14th which is not promising but isn’t nearly as bad as what I wrote. Thanks for the correction.

    17. Owen

      I did the same thing. It does drive me a little crazy. And it is pointless. Especially when All-star game mvps and scoring totals get cited as evidence of a player’s greatness. (ahem, kobe).

      But it beats watching hockey or reality tv….

      jon abbey:
      the whole weekend is a waste of time, including tonight’s game. the Saturday night thing is the best argument for a DVR ever, I went through the 2:45 show in 45 minutes, and I could have done it faster.

    18. sidestep

      The double-standard for Lin’s defensive stats shows its head again here. Most of the players on that PMAR list adhere to general ideas of who plays good defense but somehow Lin’s numbers are singled out as a supposed example of how the metrics is flawed. Yes, anything that runs against counter to your preconceived ideas is thrown out even though the other results of the list are retained as valid.

      Last season, Lin’s Synergy stats were brought up here and roundly dismissed, and this year those stats also look good. It’s very unfortunate the metric is never valid when it applies to a single player in the league. Brilliant.

      Lin is a good defender, despite it being a circle jerk truism here that maintain otherwise. As for Juan’s contention about him ‘smashing into picks’ — wow, talk about picking out one thing to represent the whole, what is that if not confirmation bias — I don’t see how that even applies to this season since the general practice of Houston’s backcourt defense is to have guards go under the pick. Even that game against Nate Robinson, the points he scored against Lin happened when Lin went under the pick and gave Nate the shot. Isn’t that how Nate is supposed to be played? Unless you’re maintaining Nate is a great perimeter shooter. Meanwhile, when Douglas came back in he got burned off the dribble by Nate.

      Just try to be a little bit unbiased. If you only consider stats that merely affirm your own preconceptions, then stats are effectively worthless tools. You will never learn anything from them, but merely use them to back up stuff you think you already know. Not much to say at that point.

    19. JK47

      The other knock on Lin was that he was supposed to be an injury waiting to happen, and that he’d never be able to stay healthy with his style of play. He’s played 1800 minutes though, more than any player on the Knicks, and appears to be gaining steam as the season is progressing.

    20. sidestep

      I am of course not saying that any advanced metric should be accepted wholesale. It works as a feedback loop with our touchstone references for what is true: if most of the conclusions of an advanced metric correspond to what is generally considered true (whether that be the eye-test or some general consensus) then the outlier results (in this case, Lin’s numbers) should be given new consideration so that they can challenge and revise what we know.

      Now, no one disputes any of other the results of the PMAR metric, yet Lin is singled out as ‘proving’ that the metric is flawed. It is pretty egregious how little intellectual honesty there is in making such a move. If the results of advanced metrics are discarded whenever they run against your preconceptions, then you might as well throw out all metrics altogether, since that is tantamount to claiming that you know everything there is know from the get go. If metrics cannot challenge the eye-test, what the heck are they good for anyway?

    21. jon abbey

      JK, I actually think he changed his style of play quite a bit this year to try to stay healthier. Juany8 can speak to this a lot better than me, but when I’ve watched him, he doesn’t intentionally draw contact constantly like he did last season, he plays much more like a ‘conventional’ PG, which is very smart and was essential for him to continue his career IMO.

    22. sidestep

      JK47:
      The other knock on Lin was that he was supposed to be an injury waiting to happen, and that he’d never be able to stay healthy with his style of play.He’s played 1800 minutes though, more than any player on the Knicks, and appears to be gaining steam as the season is progressing.

      Lin is not shooting more floaters this year, perhaps fewer actually. In the recent Rockets-Clippers game before the All-Star Break, he got hammered going into the paint, perhaps even headhunted given how much contact was directed at him.

      I think the major difference compared to last season is that when Lin gets into the paint, he now kicks the ball out more instead of taking the shot himself. Often this has meant, in my view, giving up a high-percentage shot (high-percentage in terms of either making the shot or getting to the charity stripe) in the paint in order to set up a teammate for an assist. It is better for his health I suppose, but I also question that there is any PPP advantage in opting for the assist. First, there is a chance of turning the ball over with the attempted assist, whereas a shot attempt has no risk of wasting the possession. Second, the teammate’s shot is not necessarily more likely to go in that his own shot in the paint. The kick-out is usually for a 3 point shot, so I guess the PPP may be in favor of kicking out but I’m not so sure the inside-out style is in fact superior.

      In any case, Lin’s style when he does shoot on penetration is still very physically taxing. His penetration style is more straight bee-line, which often means a collision course with the secondary or tertiary help defender, whereas the style of, say, Parker is more to take a curved trajectory into the paint which involves less contact. Given how few calls Lin gets when he does get pummeled, the inside-out game is better for his long term health.

    23. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      sidestep:
      I am of course not saying that any advanced metric should be accepted wholesale. It works as a feedback loop with our touchstone references for what is true: if most of the conclusions of an advanced metric correspond to what is generally considered true (whether that be the eye-test or some general consensus) then the outlier results (in this case, Lin’s numbers) should be given new consideration so that they can challenge and revise what we know.

      Now, no one disputes any of other the results of the PMAR metric, yet Lin is singled out as ‘proving’ that the metric is flawed. It is pretty egregious how little intellectual honesty there is in making such a move. If the results of advanced metrics are discarded whenever they run against your preconceptions, then you might as well throw out all metrics altogether, since that is tantamount to claiming that you know everything there is know from the get go. If metrics cannot challenge the eye-test, what the heck are they good for anyway?

      Be my valentine.

    24. jon abbey

      not a totally unwarranted rant, but a bit over the top. you use quotes on the word ‘proving’ but the only one I see using that word here is you.

    25. Juany8

      Sidestep, while I didn’t say anything about PMAR and haven’t looked at it, I do think that with every advanced metric, no matter how excellent the metric may otherwise be, is going to have outliers and players who are simply overrated because they do a few things that fit the model particularly well. I admit that throwing out a metric simply because of one player is pretty silly, but on the other hand saying that ANY metric ‘proves’ that player A is better than player B is just as bad. PMAR can be a good metric and Lin can still be a mediocre defender. The two conclusions aren’t mutually exclusive.

    26. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      And a totally unproductive response from abbey.

      if you would like to pay me a huge sum to write about basketball metrics at great length, feel free to make me an offer. in the meantime, I will continue to combine drive-by comments with occasional posts of substance, none of which I expect to ever sway you even momentarily from your Tom Cruise-like faith in your religion, but thankfully you’re not the only one posting here.

      also I am very sure that my POS/TA (posts of substance/throwaway) ratio is decidedly higher than yours here, maybe we should have someone compile those numbers. :)

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