Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Sep 15 2012)

  • [New York Times] Olajuwon Will School Knicks Lessons in Low-Post Moves (Sat, 15 Sep 2012 05:09:08 GMT)
    Hakeem Olajuwon, a two-time N.B.A. champion and a leading teacher of low-post moves, will visit the Knicks’ training facility next week to give lessons to the team’s big men.

  • [New York Times] Essay: Before Nets, a Ball, Park and Dream Defined Basketball (Sat, 15 Sep 2012 05:07:26 GMT)
    The Nets are arriving in a different era in Brooklyn. In simpler times, Brooklyn ballers only needed a ball, a park and a dream.

  • [New York Post] Bosh says look out for Knicks (Sat, 15 Sep 2012 04:25:12 -0500)
    Despite the fact the Heat easily knocked the Knicks out of the playoffs last season, Miami’s Chris Bosh said he thinks the Knicks will be a stiffer test for the defending champions this season.
    “I just want to say â?? the freakin’ Knicks, man,â? Bosh told ESPN.com Thursday. “I…

  • 22 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Sep 15 2012)

    1. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Z-man: Agreed, not indefensible, but at the end of the day, the “best team” over a 5-year period should get to the NBA finals at least once, especially when coached by arguably the best coach in the league. I will concede that they are a top-tier team and very enjoyable to watch, especially from a purist perspective. I never saw basketball played more beautifully than in their two wins vs. OKC and was surprised at how they just fell apart.

      I was referring to the best team LAST year, which I still think was the Spurs in the West, but if you want to talk about a five-year period, consider this: the highest draft pick that the Spurs have had since Tim Duncan? #20 in 2009. Here’s their first round history since Duncan: (no pick, 29, 20, (no pick), 26, 28, (no pick), 28, 28, 28, 26, 28, (no pick), 29, 24, Duncan.

      I’m not knocking the Thunder by any means, but they turned the #2, #4, and #3 overall picks in consecutive years into a contender, plus some great drafting with Ibaka at #24. But if we’re going to talk about which franchise has been best over the last five years, it’s gotta be the Lakers. But the Spurs have made the WCF twice, and the SF once. Without a pick even in the teens (!!!) they’ve been able to do that. That’s an accomplishment in itself.

    2. Z-man

      If you are saying that the Spurs are a great team, especially in terms of how long they have stayed in the top echelon, in part by maxing out value of low draft picks via smart, stats-based analysis, I agree 110%. That said, I stand by my point that their status as the “best” team in any of the past 5 years is devalued by not getting to the NBA finals. You could make the argument that all of their championship success is due to having the most underrated “legend” caliber player of all time as the sage of the team. And ironically, with all of their smart decision-making and HOF coaching, they totally lucked into Duncan.

      The problem with the Spurs in the last 5 seasons is that Manu (some age, more injuries) and Duncan (more age, some injuries) are still the centerpieces of the team along with Parker. IMO, that’s what keeps them from being the “best” team. They are basically the Celts West. They probably should have turned those guys over while they still had big-time value, although how could you do that to them after all they have meant to the franchise?

      Leonard was a great move, and I only liked him and Irving more than Shump in that draft (sorry, not Faried.) Still, I don’t know what the Spurs do to replace Duncan and Manu, because clearly the talent/speed in the West is passing these guys by.

    3. danvt

      Hi,
      I was really disappointed with the Lin non signing and I thought about turning in my Knick fan card but I read some comments to that affect a few threads ago and they made my stomach turn. I just gotta root for the team. On some level, even though everything is different, it still is the team of Red Holtzman and Clyde Frazier. I don’t think it’s possible for me to ditch this team no matter how much I hate Dolan.

      So rather than be two faced and post something positive after the first five game winning streak, I’ll go on record now and say I’m fairly sanguine on their prospects. Maybe they really felt Felton was a better value. Either way I’m buying his Jersey now. I’m ready to move on.

    4. Z-man

      Bravo, danvt. I am a Knick-Jet-Met fan and have lived through about 120 years worth of bad management. My feeling is that professional sports, while a big part of my life, are not so important that I should bail on my childhood teams just because of bad ownership, heartbreak, etc. As for the Lin thing, it is such small potatoes compared to past indiscretions that to bolt over it is ludicrous, at least until Lin becomes an all-star and Felton stinks up the court.

      The Knicks are like one of my children, no matter what, I could never root against them. When things get bad, I just remind myself that it’s only sports.

      Z, if you’re out there, I hope you’re listening…

    5. danvt

      Z-man: As for the Lin thing, it is such small potatoes compared to past indiscretions that to bolt over it is ludicrous

      Thanks Z-Man,
      I think if Lin was coming back I’d be really nervous about 25 Million for a PG who might average a shade under 10 points with 6 assists 3 turnovers per game and who might not be strong enough to take the pounding that his style of play seems to bring on. Plus, chemistry issues with how much he’d need to dominate the ball. I’d be worried that the league had figured him out since Linsanity and that we’d be getting essentially a Raymond Felton at a premium (and maybe with less defense). I think his numbers will be better in Houston where he’ll essentially have the 8 game winning streak team with shooters spreading the floor and him having license to to what he does best.

      Of course, lots of opinion I respect love Lin and hate Felton so maybe he would have been the second coming of Clyde, but, overall, I think, we’re 180 degrees from where we were in the playoffs against Miami at the PG position (and most of last year). So, I’m ready tune in on November 1st and watch them christen the Barclays center by putting a loss on the home team.

    6. knicknyk

      Z-man:
      As for the Lin thing, it is such small potatoes compared to past indiscretions that to bolt over it is ludicrous, at least until Lin becomes an all-star and Felton stinks up the court.

      I don’t think people were bolting only over the Lin thing. I think for a few people, at least the ones I have talked to, the Lin thing is the final straw after decades of incompetency. It’s not like fans were great with all the stupid shit that the Knicks did before hand, Lin comes around, they let him walk & they are no longer a fan only because of the Lin decision. What I have noticed has been happening is that all the other really dumb decisions of the past, for some seemed to have been rectified by Lin showing up, then letting him walk was like the final straw. The common response is that you survived through all the other stupid shit & Lin is your final straw that is silly. Well that is like saying you survived through decades of physical abuse & your husband or wife calling you stupid was the final straw. To each his own really, I think after everything the Knicks have gone through, Knick fans have earned the right to leave & come back when they are ready if that is there choice.

    7. er

      I agree with what you say, it is very astute. At the same time though i think it is a little fair weather ish if you come back

      knicknyk: I don’t think people were bolting only over the Lin thing. I think for a few people, at least the ones I have talked to, the Lin thing is the final straw after decades of incompetency. It’s not like fans were great with all the stupid shit that the Knicks did before hand, Lin comes around, they let him walk & they are no longer a fan only because of the Lin decision. What I have noticed has been happening is that all the other really dumb decisions of the past, for some seemed to have been rectified by Lin showing up, then letting him walk was like the final straw. The common response is that you survived through all the other stupid shit & Lin is your final straw that is silly. Well that is like saying you survived through decades of physical abuse & your husband or wife calling you stupid was the final straw. To each his own really, I think after everything the Knicks have gone through, Knick fans have earned the right to leave & come back when they are ready if that is there choice.

    8. knicknyk

      danvt: Thanks Z-Man,
      I think if Lin was coming back I’d be really nervous about 25 Million for a PG who might average a shade under 10 points with 6 assists 3 turnovers per game and who might not be strong enough to take the pounding that his style of play seems to bring on.Plus, chemistry issues with how much he’d need to dominate the ball.I’d be worried that the league had figured him out since Linsanity and that we’d be getting essentially a Raymond Felton at a premium (and maybe with less defense).I think his numbers will be better in Houston where he’ll essentially have the 8 game winning streak team with shooters spreading the floor and him having license to to what he does best.

      Of course, lots of opinion I respect love Lin and hate Felton so maybe he would have been the second coming of Clyde, but, overall, I think, we’re 180 degrees from where we were in the playoffs against Miami at the PG position (and most of last year).So, I’m ready tune in on November 1st and watch them christen the Barclays center by putting a loss on the home team.

      I think keeping Lin would have mean’t making a commitment to him having the ball in his hands a lot because that was when he was most effective. He isn’t a very good spot up shooter. I do think in Houston he will have a coach that believes in him, will use him the right way & will let him play through his mistakes, something that he would not have had in NY. I was fine with letting him leave I just didn’t like that he left for nothing (trading for Lowry would have been nice), bringing back Felton & nor did I like the MSG spin campaign. In regards to Felton I think he is a upgrade from any of the (Baron,TD,Bibby) pg’s. At best he is a average pg & his numbers even in his best year in NY prove that. Our sucess will ultimately come down to Melo, Amare & Tyson complimenting each other on the court & Woodson…

    9. knicknyk

      becoming a better coach. I see the Knicks as a 4th seed at best behind Miami Boston Indy. I also predict a second round exit which would be a major failure (anything but a ECF exit would be a failure seeing as how we are in win now mode & supposedly have the best team that we have ever had in ten years). I think our weak coaching, guard play, and lack of offense will be exposed. Honestly, I think just having a consistent season & a high seeding would be nice for a change.

    10. jon abbey

      a second round exit would certainly not be a “major failure”, more like about what this team should expect.

    11. Z-man

      knicknyk: The common response is that you survived through all the other stupid shit & Lin is your final straw that is silly. Well that is like saying you survived through decades of physical abuse & your husband or wife calling you stupid was the final straw. To each his own really, I think after everything the Knicks have gone through, Knick fans have earned the right to leave & come back when they are ready if that is there choice.

      Correct, to each his own, but I have a right to an opinion regarding the decisions of others and the motivation behind them. In my opinion, leaving over the Lin thing, especially at a time where the same management that let him go went out and got Chandler, Brewer, and Camby (all super-highly rated WP48 players) and when the team is expected to go further in the playoffs than it has for over a decade is silly.

    12. Z-man

      danvt: Thanks Z-Man,I think if Lin was coming back I’d be really nervous about 25 Million for a PG who might average a shade under 10 points with 6 assists 3 turnovers per game and who might not be strong enough to take the pounding that his style of play seems to bring on. Plus, chemistry issues with how much he’d need to dominate the ball. I’d be worried that the league had figured him out since Linsanity and that we’d be getting essentially a Raymond Felton at a premium (and maybe with less defense). I think his numbers will be better in Houston where he’ll essentially have the 8 game winning streak team with shooters spreading the floor and him having license to to what he does best. Of course, lots of opinion I respect love Lin and hate Felton so maybe he would have been the second coming of Clyde, but, overall, I think, we’re 180 degrees from where we were in the playoffs against Miami at the PG position (and most of last year). So, I’m ready tune in on November 1st and watch them christen the Barclays center by putting a loss on the home team.

      Agreed. I made a lot of these same points back in July-August.

      jon abbey: a second round exit would certainly not be a “major failure”, more like about what this team should expect.

      I dunno, jon, if we go out in the second round, it would be a major disappointment to me as a fan. This team is built to win this year. I don’t (yet) see a scenario where they would be better (and better positioned) next year than this year, especially if the Bulls regroup and the Nets, Indy, Celts get better.

    13. jon abbey

      ok, just saying the odds are you’re going to be disappointed. someone did something here a couple of months ago along the lines of:

      missing the playoffs-triple bogey
      first round exit-bogey
      second round exit-par
      conference finals loss-birdie
      Finals loss-eagle
      title-hole in one

      which is pretty accurate IMO.

    14. Z-man

      jon abbey: ok, just saying the odds are you’re going to be disappointed. someone did something here a couple of months ago along the lines of:missing the playoffs-triple bogeyfirst round exit-bogeysecond round exit-parconference finals loss-birdieFinals loss-eagletitle-hole in onewhich is pretty accurate IMO.

      Well, more like a par on a par-5 like Augusta’s 13th hole in that it would be a bitterly disappointing par, for me at least. The key is avoiding the Heat in the first 2 rounds; then a loss to any other team would be tough to take. Most pessimistic projections are based at least in part on a “these are the same old Knicks” default position. I’m simply saying that from a fan’s perspective, we have more reason to “expect” a birdie and “hope” for an eagle this year than we have since 1999.

      All this could change once preseason starts. Bosh’s and Shaq’s comments are not in the mainstream yet, but if there is in fact a “Kidd-Camby-Thomas (Kurt, not Isiah!)-Woodson-even Olajuwan effect” on the chemistry and focus of the team, this is a very formidable and deep team, every bit as much as Chicago was last year before Rose went down. All of the players seem to be ding the right things…olympics, early camp, Hakeem mentoring, Felton back in shape, etc.

      Yeah, I would say that bogey or worse is losing to anyone but the Heat (or being swept by the Heat) in the playoffs, par would be getting soundly beaten, but not swept, by the Heat in the ECF’s, birdie would be going 6-7 tough games with them. I don’t theink there is a convincing argument that any other team in the East is clearly superior to the Knicks.

    15. jon abbey

      well, if someone held a gun to my head and made me pick who would have a better year, the Knicks or the Celtics, I’d certainly take the Celtics right now.

      the Knicks still have too many question marks that need to be answered for me to even feel confident about them winning one playoff round. is Amare going to be the second-team All-NBA player he was two seasons ago, the guy who didn’t really even deserve rotation minutes for long stretches of last year, or somewhere in between? presumably somewhere in between, but that’s a LOOOOOT of room.

      but again, the biggest problem: almost every Knick is good on one end of the floor and bad on the other. I’ve said it already a few times, but if the NBA just puts in a rule to give each team 100 timeouts per game so we can reset personnel constantly, NY will be a title contender. :)

    16. Z-man

      jon abbey: well, if someone held a gun to my head and made me pick who would have a better year, the Knicks or the Celtics, I’d certainly take the Celtics right now.

      Yeah, but I bet

      jon abbey: but again, the biggest problem: almost every Knick is good on one end of the floor and bad on the other.

      you’d be crappin’ in your pants making that pick, no? Don’t the Celts have HUGE question marks? Too old, too small, too slow, injuries, etc.?

      I think this is somewhat exaggerated. Melo is a better defender than given credit for; Chandler is limited but super efficient on O; Felton isn’t great on O but not “bad.” JR is solid on both ends. The rest of the guys are role players, who by definition are limited in some way.

      I also see no reason, barring injury, that Amare can’t improve somewhat on D. He has not been well coached on D for most of his career and now has both a defensive-minded coach and a team with some big-time defensive mindsets on it in Chandler, Camby, Thomas, and Kidd, not to mention Brewer, Shump and possibly Felton.

    17. massive

      Even if Amar’e doesn’t get any better on defense, he is still a really good help-side shot-blocker. Even if he’s a terrible defender, he can still make a big play every now and again.

    18. knicknyk

      Z-man: Yeah, but I bet

      you’d be crappin’ in your pants making that pick, no? Don’t the Celts have HUGE question marks? Too old, too small, too slow, injuries, etc.?

      I think this is somewhat exaggerated. Melo is a better defender than given credit for; Chandler is limited but super efficient on O; Felton isn’t great on O but not “bad.” JR is solid on both ends. The rest of the guys are role players, who by definition are limited in some way.

      I also see no reason, barring injury, that Amare can’t improve somewhat on D. He has not been well coached on D for most of his career and now has both a defensive-minded coach and a team with some big-time defensive mindsets on it in Chandler, Camby, Thomas, and Kidd, not to mention Brewer, Shump and possibly Felton.

      I do think Second round exit is what is going to happen next season but it would be a major disappointment because we are built to win now from all the reason z-man listed above. But I don’t think we will make it past the second round so I personally won’t be disappointed but others would be justifiably. I think major progress would be an ECF exit or advancing even further. Aside from our players I think Woodson is also a really big question mark in the playoffs.

      In regard to 11) sure yes this team will go further than it has in a decade to the second round & likely exit there. So based on that low estimation (actually winning a series) I can see why people would not choose your route.

      The celtics have far less question marks than we do, they made it to the ECF last year. Have an amazing pg & an amazing coach & great players that know how to win. Every year people repeat the same stuff about the Celtics. It is silly. The rest of your post is just a little to much “sun shine & rainbows” for me. I stand with Abbey on this one.

    19. Frank

      knicknyk:

      The celtics have far less question marks than we do,

      I tend to agree with you with one huge caveat- they are 1000% dependent on Kevin Garnett staying healthy and effective- a guy who is 36 and has already played 46k minutes in his career (10th all time!). We have a bunch of old guys but none are expected to play more than 15-20 min per game off the bench. If KG gets hurt or age catches up, they are a very average team.

      In order for that not to happen, KG will probably be limited to 24-28min per game, which may open up seeding possibilities.

      Truth is, the only team I’d be expecting us to lose to in the second round is Miami. We have a pretty damn good chance against anyone else, especially if we somehow get home court. It is absolutely paramount that we don’t have a repeat of last year and draw Miami in the first round.

    20. knicknyk

      Frank: I tend to agree with you with one huge caveat- they are 1000% dependent on Kevin Garnett staying healthy and effective- a guy who is 36 and has already played 46k minutes in his career (10th all time!). We have a bunch of old guys but none are expected to play more than 15-20 min per game off the bench. If KG gets hurt or age catches up, they are a very average team.

      In order for that not to happen, KG will probably be limited to 24-28min per game, which may open up seeding possibilities.

      Truth is, the only team I’d be expecting us to lose to in the second round is Miami. We have a pretty damn good chance against anyone else, especially if we somehow get home court. It is absolutely paramount that we don’t have a repeat of last year and draw Miami in the first round.

      I have trouble seeing Woodson being able to out coach Doc. Aside from Woody’s weaknesses, I still think Boston can beat us in a series.

    21. Z-man

      knicknyk: I have trouble seeing Woodson being able to out coach Doc. Aside from Woody’s weaknesses, I still think Boston can beat us in a series.

      Doc was a lame duck when the big 3 were assembled, not expected to last the season. Next thing you know, he wins a title. Woodson is in a similar situation. At the end of the day, it’s a player’s league. Did Brooks outcoach Popovich?

    22. Brian Cronin

      missing the playoffs-triple bogey
      first round exit-bogey
      second round exit-par
      conference finals loss-birdie
      Finals loss-eagle
      title-hole in one

      which is pretty accurate IMO.

      Yeah, I think that is accurate. I mean, come on, the Knicks haven’t won a playoff series in 12 years (by the time the playoffs begin, it will be 13!)! So I don’t see how you could freak out too much with them winning one this year. Although, yes, the loss of Lin really does make what they do this year that much more important, since they almost certainly will be worse in the following year (and then perhaps “holy shit!” bad the following year…unless, of course, either A. Shump makes a gigantic leap in his offensive game and/or B. Someone really good agrees to take $3 million next year for some reason).

    Comments are closed.