Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Feb 09 2013)

  • [New York Daily News] Thanks to storm, Mike’s club stays in Minnesota (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 05:09:25 GMT)
    The blizzard that crippled air traffic in the Northeast on Friday forced the Knicks to spend another night in Minnesota.

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks storm back in fourth, Melo scores 36 in win over ‘Wolves (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:52:32 GMT)
    The difference in Friday night’s 100-94 Knicks victory in Minneapolis is that one team has a superstar and the other doesn’t. Carmelo Anthony scored 12 of his 36 points in the final nine minutes as the Knicks overcame an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit.

  • [New York Times] Boozer’s Big Fourth Lifts Bulls Over Jazz (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 08:33:29 GMT)
    After dealing with foul trouble most of the night, Carlos Boozer got mad.

  • [New York Times] Bryant Leads Lakers Over Bobcats 100-93 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 08:30:41 GMT)
    Kobe Bryant barely shot the ball in the first half Friday night against the Charlotte Bobcats.

  • [New York Times] Knicks 100, Timberwolves 94: After Sluggish Defense, Anthony and Knicks Deliver Rousing Comeback (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 06:15:31 GMT)
    The Knicks were slow in defending pick-and-rolls and trailed Minnesota by 11 in the fourth quarter, but Carmelo Anthony led a 24-7 closing run.

  • [New York Times] James Scores 30 Again, Heat Top Clippers 111-89 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 04:57:35 GMT)
    A few moments after getting hit in the face, LeBron James was shaken up to the point where he didn’t even bother contesting a jump ball.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Pistons’ Andre Drummond Out Four to Six Weeks (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 04:36:09 GMT)
    The Detroit Pistons rookie Andre Drummond is expected to miss four to six weeks because of a stress fracture in his back.

  • [New York Times] LeBron Continues Hot Streak as Heat Burn Clippers (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 04:32:47 GMT)
    LeBron James equalled a franchise record with his fourth straight 30-point game as the Miami Heat routed the Los Angeles Clippers 111-89 on Friday.

  • [New York Times] Wizards 89, Nets 74: With Wall Back, Wizards Handle Nets (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 04:18:31 GMT)
    The turbocharged John Wall led the suddenly surging Wizards to their third straight win. They outscored the Nets, 30-11, in the second quarter.

  • [New York Times] Spurs’ Streak Ends in 119-109 Loss to Pistons (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 04:15:35 GMT)
    Gregg Popovich was explaining before the game how his San Antonio Spurs had managed to win 11 in a row despite injuries to Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

  • [New York Times] Bryant Leads Lakers Over Bobcats 100-93 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 04:15:29 GMT)
    Even though Kobe Bryant and the Lakers were able to escape with a 100-93 win Friday night over the Charlotte Bobcats, the Los Angeles star was left feeling “irritated” after the game.

  • [New York Times] Grizzlies Upend Warriors 99-93 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:54:55 GMT)
    Marc Gasol scored six of his 20 points down the stretch to help the Memphis Grizzlies defeat the Golden State Warriors 99-93 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Harden Scores 35, Rockets Beat Blazers 118-103 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:48:51 GMT)
    James Harden had 35 points and 11 assists, Chandler Parsons scored 20 and the Houston Rockets beat the Portland Trail Blazers 118-103 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Melo’s 36 Lift Knicks Over Wolves, 100-94 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:45:55 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony had 36 points and nine rebounds, scoring 12 points down the stretch to rally the New York Knicks to a 100-94 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Thunder Romp to 3rd Straight Blowout, 127-96 (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:31:11 GMT)
    Kevin Durant scored 21 points, Thabo Sefolosha had a season-high 18 and the Oklahoma City Thunder rode a gigantic third-quarter run to a 127-96 victory Friday night over the Phoenix Suns.

  • [New York Times] Raptors Rally Late, Surprise Pacers 100-98 in OT (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:27:46 GMT)
    Rudy Gay scored 17 of his 23 points in the fourth quarter and overtime Friday night, rallying the Toronto Raptors to a 100-98 victory over the weary Indiana Pacers.

  • [New York Times] Cavs Send Magic to 12th Straight Loss (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:27:39 GMT)
    Kyrie Irving scored 24 points and the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated Orlando 119-108 on Friday night, sending the Magic to their 12th straight loss.

  • [New York Times] Vasquez’s Triple-Double Leads Hornets Past Hawks (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 03:15:41 GMT)
    Greivis Vasquez had his first career triple-double and Eric Gordon scored 27 points, leading New Orleans to a 111-100 victory over the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night and a rare winning streak for the last-place Hornets.

  • [New York Times] Wizards 89, Nets 74: Nene Helps Wizards Pull Away for Win Over Nets (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 02:33:31 GMT)
    The Washington Wizards held the Nets without a field goal for nearly nine minutes in the first half, survived a second-half slump and held on for the win.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Nets Said to Be Considering Deal to Send Humphries to Bobcats (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 02:31:26 GMT)
    A proposed trade with Charlotte could bring Ben Gordon to Brooklyn, easing the Nets’ frontcourt logjam.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Section 15: Love for the Lakers (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 02:28:19 GMT)
    The Lakers’ visit to Barclays Center gave young Eric Sawnders-McGuire a chance to see his favorite player, Kobe Bryant.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Knicks Hope to Get Back for Game at Garden (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 02:19:32 GMT)
    After visiting the Timberwolves on Friday, the Knicks are scheduled to play the Clippers on Sunday at Madison Square Garden. But weather and travel problems could intervene.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: The Rockets Catch Fire (Sat, 09 Feb 2013 02:12:40 GMT)
    Led by James Harden and Jeremy Lin, the Houston Rockets have become one of the N.B.A.’s most exciting teams, scoring more than 100 points in seven consecutive games.

  • 90 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Feb 09 2013)

    1. danvt

      I love reading the recaps here at KB after a bad loss. After, the Wizards game, Robert’s summary really made me feel better. It’s sort of like getting to your pain threshold and then it’s all more manageable. It just makes me feel better that others find this stuff meaningful and that I’m not the only idiot with a contact high style depression until we get our next W. (I also love reading the adjective “execrable”, though I don’t think he used it the other night). Even in a win I get that players will get C’s, but I do feel that, many pundits, bloggers and paid Hessians alike, tend to treat basketball like a corporate quarterly performance report.

      It’s basketball, people! It’s pure chaos theory acted out on HD screens. Over the course of a full season you see who the better teams are. In the meantime, it’s a round ball and it spins and bounces in infinite variations. One night you score 46, the next 9. 20 rebounds three games in a row is followed by 13 and then 7.
      And, Yes, the Knicks have a hard time denying John Wall’s forays into the painted area. I imagine they’re not alone in having that problem. Sometimes the other team also has professional basketball players. Stop treating a fourth quarter deficit like a personal insult.

      Last nights game was the type of game we haven’t won regularly since the Jeff Van Gundy era and even the Ewing Knicks would lose to a motivated Vin Baker and Milwaukee, periodically. Constructive criticism is what we’re made of here, I get it, but let’s tip our hat to the opposition and try to enjoy our 32-16 team.

    2. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      This is why I believe everything ruruland says from his expert memory:

      https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2201941

      Hey, I know one of the authors of that paper!

      Though this probably goes without saying, it has fuck-all to do with the utility of repeated observation in evaluating the skills and tendencies of NBA players in conjunction with statistical analysis. I’m pretty sure he’d say you’re just being a twat, although the fact that anyone would stand behind a metric that says Ronnie Brewer has produced more wins for the Knicks this season than Carmelo Anthony suggests that further inquiry into the matter of self-delusion and false memory is probably merited.

    3. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: OH, BULLSHIT

      Are you suggesting that Ruruland has been shown doctored images of Carmelo Anthony succeeding at basketball, from games that never existed, and therefore falsely remembers non-existant instances of Melo’s successful play?

      Because otherwise you either don’t understand the study you cited or are just trolling. But please, jam on that caps-lock, professor.

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      flossy: Are you suggesting that Ruruland has been shown doctored images of Carmelo Anthony succeeding at basketball, from games that never existed, and therefore falsely remembers non-existant instances of Melo’s successful play?

      Because otherwise you either don’t understand the study you cited or are just trolling.But please, jam on that caps-lock, professor.

      Wow. Are you kidding me with this equivocal bullshit?

      It’s about the way that preconceived notions and bias can lead a person to misremember (or invent) information.

      That you think it’s about “doctored images” or whatever makes me think that it’s you who doesn’t understand the study, chief.

    5. Owen

      Don’t want to interrupt guys….

      Just wanted to note James Harden’s game last night for no particular reason. 35 points on 17 true shots, with 7 boards and 11 assists….

    6. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Wow. Are you kidding me with this equivocal bullshit?

      It’s about the way that preconceived notions and bias can lead a person to misremember (or invent) information.

      That you think it’s about “doctored images” or whatever makes me think that it’s you who doesn’t understand the study, chief.

      Are you serious, Professor? Did you even read the abstract of the study you cited?

      “In the largest false memory study to date, 5,269 participants were asked about their memories for three true and one of five fabricated political events. Each fabricated event was accompanied by a photographic image purportedly depicting that event. Approximately half the participants falsely remembered that the false event happened, with 27% remembering that they saw the events happen on the news.”

      We’re not talking about “fabricated events” here. If you honestly think this study in any way invalidates the analysis of someone who has watched literally thousands of hours of game play and combined their observations with statistical analysis to come to the conclusion that Carmelo Anthony is a good basketball player, or at the very least has produced more wins this season than Ronnie “DNP-CD” Brewer, than you are too fucking dense to function. Please troll smarter, not just harder, thanks.

    7. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      flossy: Are you serious, Professor?Did you even read the abstract of the study you cited?

      “In the largest false memory study to date, 5,269 participants were asked about their memories for three true and one of five fabricated political events. Each fabricated event was accompanied by a photographic image purportedly depicting that event. Approximately half the participants falsely remembered that the false event happened, with 27% remembering that they saw the events happen on the news.”

      We’re not talking about “fabricated events” here.If you honestly think this study in any way invalidates the analysis of someone who has watched literally thousands of hours of game play and combined their observations with statistical analysis to come to the conclusion that Carmelo Anthony is a good basketball player, or at the very least has produced more wins this season than Ronnie “DNP-CD” Brewer, than you are too fucking dense to function.Please troll smarter, not just harder, thanks.

      A follow-up study supported the explanation that events are more easily implanted in memory when they are congruent with a person’s preexisting attitudes and evaluations, in part because attitude-congruent false events promote feelings of recognition and familiarity, which in turn interfere with source attributions.

      Right. This isn’t relevant at all.

      Keep talkin’, pal.

    8. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Owen:
      Don’t want to interrupt guys….

      Just wanted to note James Harden’s game last night for no particular reason. 35 points on 17 true shots, with 7 boards and 11 assists….

      His stats are inflated, though, Owen, as opposed to Westbrook, who scrapes, tooth and nail, for each possession he uses to score.

    9. Z-man

      “Statistics from football tend to be inconsistent. This suggests a player’s numbers are influenced by his teammates. Although it’s suspected this is true in the NBA, the consistency of performance across time suggests that teammates don’t have much impact on an individual player’s productivity. Consequently, it seems safe to assume that the statistics tracked for an individual player represent that player’s contribution to team success.”

      This is taken from the WoW FAQ page. It represents one of the most asinine assumptions ever made to serve as a backbone of a statistical analysis system.

      We have argued here often about how “role” rather than “position” is what matters in NBA basketball. Comparing a guy that is expected (and getting paid for) having a usage% of 30 or more to a guy that is expected to have one of 20 or less is dumb. Player stats tend to be relatively consistent in the NBA across years and teams because their primary role stays consistent. When their role changes, their production changes as well. THCJ can’t deal with this concept.

      Nearly every NBA team has 1-2 primary scorers, 1-2 primary rebounders, 1-2 primary rim protectors, 1-2 primary perimeter defenders, etc. Tyson Chandler is a primary rebounder/rim protector, but could never be a primary scorer or perimeter defender on a successfully balanced NBA team. Melo is a high-volume scorer and has many NBA-level secondary skills. He could absolutely be a 10-plus rebound guy if that was his primary role, but could never be a NBA-level PG or rim protector.

      Melo should only be compared to other extremely high volume scorers, regardless of position. He is not as good as Durant or James, but is as good or better than Kobe or Harden and better than Joe Johnson, Pierce (at this stage) Ellis or Gay.

      Tyson Chandler should only be compared to other rebounders/rim protectors. Felton should only be compared to other primary assist-producers. Why is that such a difficult concept?

    10. Juany8

      flossy: Are you serious, Professor?Did you even read the abstract of the study you cited?

      “In the largest false memory study to date, 5,269 participants were asked about their memories for three true and one of five fabricated political events. Each fabricated event was accompanied by a photographic image purportedly depicting that event. Approximately half the participants falsely remembered that the false event happened, with 27% remembering that they saw the events happen on the news.”

      We’re not talking about “fabricated events” here.If you honestly think this study in any way invalidates the analysis of someone who has watched literally thousands of hours of game play and combined their observations with statistical analysis to come to the conclusion that Carmelo Anthony is a good basketball player, or at the very least has produced more wins this season than Ronnie “DNP-CD” Brewer, than you are too fucking dense to function.Please troll smarter, not just harder, thanks.

      Flossy this is a very good point, but you have to keep in mind that you’re not having an actual discussion. He’s not actually saying anything in retort to a single one of your points, he’s just quoting some study that isn’t totally relevant to the point at hand and insulting you. It’s annoying, but as long as you keep in mind that he blindly backs a model that thinks Felton and Melo combined have contributed less to the Knicks combined than Pablo Prigioni, it becomes safe to just ignore him and let him have his little caps lock rants

    11. Z-man

      PS so long as one’s role doesn’t change, minutes played matters less, so per minute production numbers are more likely to stay the same. On the other hand, imagine what would happen to Chandler’s WP48 if you made him your primary PG/perimeter defender. What makes LeBron so great is that he could play numerous roles at an all-star level, to the point that he is one of the few players that transcend the typical role delineations.

    12. Juany8

      Great point Z-man, but again, THCJ isn’t here to have a legitimate discussion about the merits of WP or statistical analysis. He’s here to be a douche.

    13. Z-man

      Juany8: Flossy this is a very good point, but you have to keep in mind that you’re not having an actual discussion. He’s not actually saying anything in retort to a single one of your points, he’s just quoting some study that isn’t totally relevant to the point at hand and insulting you. It’s annoying, but as long as you keep in mind that he blindly backs a model that thinks Felton and Melo combined have contributed less to the Knicks combined than Pablo Prigioni, it becomes safe to just ignore him and let him have his little caps lock rants

      Did the knicks play better statistically when Felton was out and those extra minutes went to Prigs and Kidd? WP says they should have by a pretty wide margin, no?

    14. Z-man

      Juany8:
      Great point Z-man, but again, THCJ isn’t here to have a legitimate discussion about the merits of WP or statistical analysis. He’s here to be a douche.

      I disagree, he actually believes very deeply in the merits of the Wins Produced metric, as do many bright analytical guys. The way he goes about defending it makes him a douche and a troll, but he’s not just blindly trolling, like hoolahoop, eg.

      Again, to act like you or your demigod Berri have uncovered the holy grail of NBA player valuation when it to often runs so absolutely contrary to the obvious (your Melo+Felton<Prigioni example is one of millions that can be cited) is idiotic. To completely discount interaction effects because you believe this bullshit assumption: "the consistency of performance across time suggests that teammates don’t have much impact on an individual player’s productivity[...c]onsequently, it seems safe to assume that the statistics tracked for an individual player represent that player’s contribution to team success" is beyond unscientific.

    15. mokers

      People should stop with all of the abuse to THCJ. I mean, when you post a link to a study and provide no context to your snarky comment, wouldn’t you feel entitled to call people stupid for misunderstanding your original point? And let’s be honest, do you actually expect him to read and respond to the actual points you make in your replies? Andre Drummond is out for a month. He’s gotta find some other fantasy material to dream about until Drummond returns. Cut the man some slack.

    16. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: It’s annoying, but as long as you keep in mind that he blindly backs a model that thinks Felton and Melo combined have contributed less to the Knicks combined than Pablo Prigioni, it becomes safe to just ignore him and let him have his little caps lock rants

      It’s posts like this that make me miss Mike K.’s input on this site. As much as I love Jim’s and Bob’s posts, they never step in to remark that the “appeal to common sense” bullshit on this site is not in its spirit at all. Mike, where are you?

      This is, ironically, exactly the kind of cognitive bias that the study talks about — that your bias toward what you intuit about basketball blinds you to the fact that a player who shoots as often and as poorly as Raymond Felton just might not be as valuable as you think he is, no matter what the small sample size created by his time off-the-floor suggests.

      The most prevalent condemnation of WP48 on this site is that it doesn’t pass the eye- (or smell-) test. If your eyetest is prone to cognitive bias, as countless studies have shown, time and fucking time again, what the fuck does it mean in the first place?

      I’m not saying that WP48 doesn’t have fault, because it admittedly does, but when you’re using WS48 or PER to prove your point because it matches your eyetest, there’s a big fucking problem there.

      And again, WP48 is not an explanatory device. It’s a device about results. It can tell you that offensive rebounds and steals are good, but it can’t tell you what makes a player like Faried, Drummond, or Chris Andersen so awesome at grabbing them. My opinion has been that we should be “rolling the dice” on high WP players and having coaches work on their playstyle, rather than getting players who grade low on efficiency and trying to turn them into Harden.

      (And you really think Carmelo’s better than Harden?…

    17. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      mokers:
      People should stop with all of the abuse to THCJ. I mean, when you post a link to a study and provide no context to your snarky comment, wouldn’t you feel entitled to call people stupid for misunderstanding your original point? And let’s be honest, do you actually expect him to read and respond to the actual points you make in your replies? Andre Drummond is out for a month. He’s gotta find some other fantasy material to dream about until Drummond returns. Cut the man some slack.

      Do I really have to explain the summary of the summary of the study? As if I couldn’t be any more condescending…

    18. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And you really think Carmelo’s better than Harden?

      I think they are comparable. I personally like Melo’s game better but agree that Harden is really, really good. However, he is not as good statistically as he was in a more limited role, which is an important point that you seem to ignore whenever it’s convenient.

      But that’s not the issue here. Most would agree that if you replaced Melo with Harden, we would still have a very good team. The more important question is: do you REALLY think that Prigioni has produced more wins for the Knicks this season than Melo and Felton combined?

    19. danvt

      Meanwhile, I really like Faried and Lawson and others that Jowles has promoted. The K’s would have done well to make those picks. I learn a lot from his posts when they’re real posts. Does Scott Machado have a job anywhere?

    20. Jenny

      Don’t know if anyone has posted this (so I apologize if someone has), but I thought this was pretty interesting.

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1521268-the-truth-behind-nba-chemistry-who-has-it

      It’s from Bleacher Report, but it’s written by Jared Wade, who contributes to 8 Points, 9 seconds, the Pacers Truehoop Network blog. It’s about the best 3-, 4-, and 5-man units league wide in terms of +/-. More specifically, it mentions that although Raymond Felton is nothing special in terms of individual statistics, he is still somehow important part of their success. Here’s the relevant quote:

      “Getting down to three-man units, we’re starting to weed out some of the players who may be simply benefiting from those around them. The New York Knicks, for example, had two four-man units in the top seven.

      But looking at their only elite three-man unit shows us just how vital Raymond Felton has been to their success.

      In the team’s two uber-successful four-man units, we see the names of both Jason Kidd and J.R. Smith, two players who have been lauded for their ability to move the ball around the perimeter this year.

      The three-man potency of Felton, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler, however, suggests that they are the three straws that are really stirring the drink. This also aligns with the quick drop-off in wins the Knicks experienced when Felton was sidelined.”

      The entire article was a good read. I think it really tries to get at the interaction effects and on-court “chemistry” between players that is hard to quantify.

    21. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      danvt:
      The statistic has to somewhat match the eye test though.

      No it doesn’t. This is where you’re wrong.

    22. DRed

      The thing about Felton’s impact is that it’s hard to tell how much of it is some skill that is unique to Felton, or if it’s just that he’s the only PG on the roster capable of getting past his man on the perimeter. Felton could be valuable to the Knicks without being that valuable of a player just because of who his backups are.

    23. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: A follow-up study supported the explanation that events are more easily implanted in memory when they are congruent with a person’s preexisting attitudes and evaluations, in part because attitude-congruent false events promote feelings of recognition and familiarity, which in turn interfere with source attributions.

      Right. This isn’t relevant at all.

      Keep talkin’, pal.

      No, it’s not relevant at all. The only way it would be relevant is if ESPN were rebroadcasting “footage” of Carmelo Anthony’s heroic efforts to lead the Knicks past the Heat in game 7 of last year’s first round playoff series, and ruruland was commenting along like “Oh yeah! I remember that game! It was so awesome! Carmelo 4 evar!”

      Back on planet earth, that doesn’t fucking happen, ever. Our biases impact which false memories of fabricated events our brains choose to believe. Unless you are proposing that the games we are seeing on TV are not what is actually transpiring on the court, your citing of this particular study is unbelievably asinine.

    24. danvt

      I like this blog not so much for the straight stats based stuff as for the commentary. Silverman and Cavan are extremely accurate in their presentations. If someone get’s burned they see it. There’s no wishful seeing.

      Posters who weave relevant numbers into their analysis are what I look for here. Getting away from sensationalism followed by one video highlight of a breakaway dunk is why I rely on this site for NYK news and not ESPN-NY.

      The, “don’t you see that this guy is terrible”, or “does this or that terribly and will never change…” arguments, which use a given measure to prove it, are tiresome. Melo may never catch Lebron statistically but we needn’t argue it because Melo does his job well. Other factors will determine the conference champ. Eli Manning didn’t need to be as good as Tom Brady. NYG Just needed to be better than NE.

      So, what needs to happen for NYK? Amar’e needs to work on his handle. Felton or Shumpert need to take a charge (I miss Jared Jeffries). The team needs to maybe not switch on defense quite as much. I’m sure there are stats to back all that up and I’m sure I don’t need to see them to know it.

      I think one argument that lacks statistical rigor is the idea that guys aren’t trying hard enough. You hear it from coaches and pundits alike. It seems to me like the guys are busting their asses out there no matter the score god bless ‘em. Nice the other night how the Pistons didn’t give up. Did anyone give them credit?

      I’d rather people talk in real terms about strategy and skills in the game of basketball. Straight stats and conjecture about motivation are less captivating.

    25. flossy

      Juany8: Flossy this is a very good point, but you have to keep in mind that you’re not having an actual discussion. He’s not actually saying anything in retort to a single one of your points, he’s just quoting some study that isn’t totally relevant to the point at hand and insulting you. It’s annoying, but as long as you keep in mind that he blindly backs a model that thinks Felton and Melo combined have contributed less to the Knicks combined than Pablo Prigioni, it becomes safe to just ignore him and let him have his little caps lock rants

      Oh I know, I just happen to personally know one of the authors of this study and have talked with him at length about it, which I why I find THCJ’s perversion of the study’s basic premise to be so hilarious and pathetic, especially coming from someone who is supposed to be an academic of some kind?

      It’s amazing how blind adherence to an ideology combined with a personal axe to grind can cause people to say the stupidest shit, but what THCJ is actually saying is a lot closer to “because some people have been shown to be susceptible to hypnosis, ruruland has been hypnotized into thinking that Carmelo Anthony is good, ergo I don’t trust him” than it is to anything even remotely related to substantive basketball analysis (or even to a defense of the broken metric to which he so desperately clings).

      Sad, really.

    26. danvt

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: No it doesn’t. This is where you’re wrong.

      See, this is the kind of post that fails another kind of eye test. Tell me about what you mean. Chris Paul is one of the best PGs in the game. I don’t even know his ppg average, but am I wrong? Is there a difference making player out there that I’m not aware of? Is there a stat out there that I don’t see evidence of when a player plays? Does Ronnie Brewer have a to secret mission that only certain learned people are aware of?

    27. Z-man

      Is there a site that calculates WP on a single game basis? In other words, how many wins produced did each player on the Knicks and how many did each player on the T’wolves have? Overall, the Knicks produced one win (they won), and the T’wolves produced 0 wins (they lost). Wait, maybe the Knicks only produced 0.89 wins and the Wolves only produced 0.87 wins, so because the Knicks did more things associated with producing wins, they won? Or is it possible that the Wolves collectively produced more wins than the Knicks but lost anyway? I’m confused. Please tell me that such a site exists so that I can make more sense of this oracle of basketball statistics.

    28. Unreason

      IMO we all want to know what’s real and try to avoid bias. None of us succeed. Judgment and decision making research tries to illuminate biases that affect “eye tests”. Theories of experimental design, measurement, and statistical inference try to illuminate biases that affect conclusions based on data mining.

      There’s a lot of uncertainty about when and why either is useful in thinking more clearly about hoops. Enough uncertainty that neither provides a solid ground for knowing for sure when a expert judgment or an advanced stat is biased. I’m pretty sure that most of us with an interest in these things know lots of reasons why they don’t provide that. They all boil down to not having a criterion for truth against which biases can be assessed. Without that, I think we would agree there’s no science to be had here.

      That said, we all love hoops and obviously it’s fun to speculate about how our favorite ideas could lead to cool insights etc.

      It is much less fun, IMO, when the drive to push those ideas forward gets mixed with a drive for social dominance within some imagined board hierarchy and therefore who is worthy of ridicule.

      Kid gloves are no fun either, but jibes in the context of mutual respect are very different than open animosity. For the sake of fun if nothing else, a little more humility and respect all the way around would be much appreciated by me at least.

    29. danvt

      BigBlueAL:
      After seeing some of the posts made today I figured for fun to post this article about Melo’s clutchness :-)

      http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-on-basketball/21675442/knicks-carmelo-anthony-is-still-devastating-in-the-clutch

      “He’s just got that ability to take it to the hole or make jumpers,” Adelman said. “You know, you do the best you can but he’s a great player.”

      That means a lot coming from him. Anyone have any Greg Popovich quotes on Melo?

    30. JK47

      The Knicks’ most common lineup this year has been Felton-Kidd-Brewer-Melo-Chandler. The second most common lineup is exactly the same but replaces Ronnie Brewer with JR Smith.

      WP48 easily prefers Ronnie Brewer to JR Smith, by a wide margin. The eye test seems to prefer JR Smith.

      With Brewer in the lineup, the Knicks average 1.14 PPP and allow 1.13 PPP. With Smith in the lineup, they average 1.23 PPP and allow 1.00 PPP.

      When Ronnie Brewer is on the floor in general, the Knicks average 1.07 PPP and allow 1.07 PPP. When he’s off the floor they average 1.14 PPP and allow 1.06.

      Yet some people will still tell you that Ronnie Brewer is doing a good job “producing wins” for the Knicks. To the rest of us, it’s obvious why Ronnie Brewer is now in DNP-CD land.

    31. Owen

      My lord, who even brought up the WOW?

      Nuggets are playing the Cavs on NBATV, should be fun….

      And especially fun are the Cleveland commentators….

      Who knew Alonzo Gee was known as 3G?

    32. jon abbey

      I love Varejao, but it’s worth noting that CLE was 5-20 with him (3-11 with Irving, 2-9 without both) and is now 11-14 without him.

    33. jon abbey

      11, I included those. also the guys Memphis handed them in recent weeks are helping the depth, but I still think it’s enough games to be at least worth noting.

    34. Owen

      I mean, if Varejao hasn’t established his value, and brittleness, at this point, who has.

      I don’t think he is as good as his numbers to start the year. but after being the second best player on a number of great teams I think he has earned some respect.

      I have always loved Varejao though, not wholly objective….

    35. Owen

      BTW, Mcgee did something totally awesome. Tipped in a full court pass from Miller to try to beat the buzzer. Didnt get it in time but put it in. And it looked freakin gorgeous…

      Love the Nuggets.

      Maybe I should do a reverse Ruru, move to Denver and root for Dean Oliver and the Nuggets….

    36. jon abbey

      I’m just saying that chemistry is a very fluid thing in the NBA, guys like AV and Rondo that we all agree are awesome, top 10 or top 20 most valuable in the league, go out and their teams sometimes improve, at least in the short term. Rondo is an even smaller sample size but Boston sure looks good so far without both him and Sullinger (their best big man not named Garnett), somehow.

    37. Owen

      Because seriously, they are so much fun to watch.

      Miller to Brewer cutting through the lane who flips it up to Mcgee for an alley oop. Just awesome….

    38. jon abbey

      will they have weed concession stands at Nuggets games in a few years? now that would be a nice selling point…

    39. Owen

      A bigger draw than Gallo, Lawson, Faried, and Mcgee?

      I hear you about chemistry but strange things happen in small samples, that’s my stock answer anyway….

    40. flossy

      Suns want Shumpert for Jared Dudley. They’ve got 3 first round picks this year (theirs, the Lakers, Memphis’s). How many do we have to get back before that trade become palatable?

    41. ruruland

      Owen:
      A bigger draw than Gallo, Lawson, Faried, and Mcgee?

      I hear you about chemistry but strange things happen in small samples, that’s my stock answer anyway….

      ,

      They are fun to watch, have been for awhile. Still won’t do well in playoffs.

      BTW, they’ve got like 15 players better than Melo, why in the heck aren’t they ahead of where Melo, Nene and Billups had them a couple of years back?

    42. njasdjdh

      I don’t think Rondo is a Top 20 NBA player and certainly not a Top 10. I think he is barely a Top 10 PG.

      jon abbey:
      I’m just saying that chemistry is a very fluid thing in the NBA, guys like AV and Rondo that we all agree are awesome, top 10 or top 20 most valuable in the league, go out and their teams sometimes improve, at least in the short term. Rondo is an even smaller sample size but Boston sure looks good so far without both him and Sullinger (their best big man not named Garnett), somehow.

    43. njasdjdh

      Define “won’t do well in the playoffs.” I think if they finish with the 3 or 4 seed they will make the 2nd round. If they finish with the 5 seed and MEM gets the 4, I still think they make it to round 2. Not being good enough to beat SAS, OKC or LAC (if CP3 is healthy) isn’t some kind of organizational black eye IMO.

      ruruland: They are fun to watch, have been for awhile. Still won’t do well in playoffs.

      BTW, they’ve got like 15 players better than Melo, why in the heck aren’t they ahead of where Melo, Nene and Billups had them a couple of years back?

    44. Owen

      I wouldn’t say any team Melo has ever been on is better than the current Nuggets squad.

      Ok, the Olympic team….

      They don’t miss Melo, that’s for sure….

      ruruland: They are fun to watch, have been for awhile. Still won’t do well in playoffs.

      BTW, they’ve got like 15 players better than Melo, why in the heck aren’t they ahead of where Melo, Nene and Billups had them a couple of years back?

    45. Garson

      ruruland: They are fun to watch, have been for awhile. Still won’t do well in playoffs.

      BTW, they’ve got like 15 players better than Melo, why in the heck aren’t they ahead of where Melo, Nene and Billups had them a couple of years back?

      Melo forced his way out… You talk as if it’s their fault for trading him.

      Do you feel better about yourself every time you respond to a nugget compliment with ” they’ll never get out of the first round ” comment?

    46. ruruland

      Owen:
      I wouldn’t say any team Melo has ever been on is better than the current Nuggets squad.

      Ok, the Olympic team….

      They don’t miss Melo, that’s for sure….

      You said this the prior two years. OKC sure doesn’t miss Harden. har har

    47. massive

      Don’t look now, but Denver is 4th in the Western Conference, and 1.5 games behind the 3rd place Clippers. I’m hoping for a GSW/Denver playoff series out west come playoff time.

    48. jon abbey

      massive:
      Don’t look now, but Denver is 4th in the Western Conference, and 1.5 games behind the 3rd place Clippers. I’m hoping for a GSW/Denver playoff series out west come playoff time.

      don’t see that happening, DEN will not be top two and I don’t think GS will stay in the top six, 8-11 in their last 19 after the fast start.

    49. BigBlueAL

      Surprised not much talk here about the rumored Shump for Jared Dudley plus maybe a 1st round pick trade. I know we all love Shump but Dudley sure would be a great fit on this team.

    50. BigBlueAL

      My bad, completely skipped the game recap today lol.

      I dunno, its a tough call because of how young Shump is and the belief we have in his future but people who say Dudley brings nothing to the table and is similar to Novak/Copeland are nuts. He is a career 40% 3pt shooter who would be a perfect fit in the starting lineup at SF. The fact that the Suns would also reportedly be giving up a future 1st round pick as well to me probably makes it a deal the Knicks should do. Only negative is he still has 3 yrs left on his contract after this year at a bit more than 4m per year.

    51. Z-man

      Z-man:
      Is there a site that calculates WP on a single game basis? In other words, how many wins produced did each player on the Knicks and how many did each player on the T’wolves have? Overall, the Knicks produced one win (they won), and the T’wolves produced 0 wins (they lost). Wait, maybe the Knicks only produced 0.89 wins and the Wolves only produced 0.87 wins, so because the Knicks did more things associated with producing wins, they won? Or is it possible that the Wolves collectively produced more wins than the Knicks but lost anyway? I’m confused. Please tell me that such a site exists so that I can make more sense of this oracle of basketball statistics.

      Still waiting on an answer here…and wondering why others are not curious as to the relationship between team WP and the result of an individual game. Does the team with the highest WP for a particular always win that game?

    52. maxwell_3g

      BigBlueAL:
      Surprised not much talk here about the rumored Shump for Jared Dudley plus maybe a 1st round pick trade.I know we all love Shump but Dudley sure would be a great fit on this team.

      the dude is scoring 12 points per 30 for a crappy team….not exactly filling it up. also, shump is shooting well from 3. better % than dudley. if the knicks give up on shump this quick for a marginal player, they are just insane

    53. Owen

      Insane?

      This would be a great deal for the Knicks. Dudley is a highly efficient wing who doesn’t need the ball a lot. A perfect complement to Melo. And having seen both of them play this year, there is little doubt in my mind that Dudley would give us a better chance to win a series against the Heat.

      If it’s win now, it’s Dudley. It’s probably Dudley if we want to win later too.

      If he weren’t coming off a major knee injury, if he weren’t shooting 44% ts% from the floor, if he hadn’t played generally terribly, i might feel different.

      But it’s a no brainer in my book…

    54. BigBlueAL

      maxwell_3g: the dude is scoring 12 points per 30 for a crappy team….not exactly filling it up.also, shump is shooting well from 3.better % than dudley.if the knicks give up on shump this quick for a marginal player, they are just insane

      Dudley is not a marginal player. His TS% on the season is just shy of 60% and for his career its 58%. I love Shump like everyone else but the facts are he continues to be an awful offensive player with the only thing saving him right now is he has made his 3pters this season but who knows how real that is since even Brewer was drilling 3pters early in the season. Shump even with shooting 43% from 3pt range so far has a TS% of only 44%!!

      I dunno I just think alot of people here who are fans of Shump have an irrational belief in his offense improving. The facts are he may not look as bad as Brewer offensively but he is just as bad as him. Felton and Brewer get killed for their poor shooting but Shump gets a pass for his just because he is still young and there is a hope he will improve.

      I doubt this trade happens and I am not wishing it happens but if it does I certainly wont complain, heck I would actually be a bit excited because it would certainly improve the offense pretty significantly imo.

    55. massive

      Well there really is no question as to who is the better player between Iman Shumpert and Jared Dudley. But Shumpert is my favorite Knick, and it would hurt me if we traded him. I wouldn’t cry about a Dudley + lottery pick for Shumpert trade, but I can’t act like trading another homegrown Knick wouldn’t hurt.

    56. yellowboy90

      By the way how great did the Nash trade work out for Phx. Who would have thought they would get a lottery pick out of it?

      regarding Dudley: Is it fair to say he is basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin minus the Ft% and the usage. However on the Knicks his usage wouldn’t be high anyway.

      I am on the fence on the trade but it seems like the Suns really want Shump. If they want him bad enough I would ask for Dudley, Gortat, and a 1st for Shump, Camby, and Novak. Camby is an expiring contract next year since his 3rd year is not guaranteed. If they want really want Shump come get him. lol.

    57. ruruland

      njasdjdh:
      Define “won’t do well in the playoffs.” I think if they finish with the 3 or 4 seed they will make the 2nd round. If they finish with the 5 seed and MEM gets the 4, I still think they make it to round 2.Not being good enough to beat SAS, OKC or LAC (if CP3 is healthy) isn’t some kind of organizational black eye IMO.

      I agree. They’ll be a better regular season than post-season team as currently constructed under Karl. That’s all. Call it trite, but it’s true. Game slows down, they just aren’t the same. No structure on offense.

    58. ruruland

      yellowboy90:
      By the way how great did the Nash trade work out for Phx. Who would have thought they would get a lottery pick out of it?

      regarding Dudley: Is it fair to say he is basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin minus the Ft% and the usage. However on the Knicks his usage wouldn’t be high anyway.

      I am on the fence on the trade but it seems like the Suns really want Shump. If they want him bad enough I would ask for Dudley, Gortat, and a 1st for Shump, Camby, and Novak. Camby is an expiring contract next year since his 3rd year is not guaranteed. If they want really want Shump come get him. lol.

      I really like this thinking.

    59. ruruland

      BigBlueAL: Dudley is not a marginal player.His TS% on the season is just shy of 60% and for his career its 58%.I love Shump like everyone else but the facts are he continues to be an awful offensive player with the only thing saving him right now is he has made his 3pters this season but who knows how real that is since even Brewer was drilling 3pters early in the season.Shump even with shooting 43% from 3pt range so far has a TS% of only 44%!!

      I dunno I just think alot of people here who are fans of Shump have an irrational belief in his offense improving.The facts are he may not look as bad as Brewer offensively but he is just as bad as him.Felton and Brewer get killed for their poor shooting but Shump gets a pass for his just because he is still young and there is a hope he will improve.

      I doubt this trade happens and I am not wishing it happens but if it does I certainly wont complain, heck I would actually be a bit excited because it would certainly improve the offense pretty significantly imo.

      He hasn’t improved his 3 point shot?

    60. ruruland

      Owen:
      Insane?

      This would be a great deal for the Knicks. Dudley is a highly efficient wing who doesn’t need the ball a lot. A perfect complement to Melo. And having seen both of them play this year, there is little doubt in my mind that Dudley would give us a better chance to win a series against the Heat.

      If it’s win now, it’s Dudley. It’s probably Dudley if we want to win later too.

      If he weren’t coming off a major knee injury, if he weren’t shooting 44% ts% from the floor, if he hadn’t played generally terribly, i might feel different.

      But it’s a no brainer in my book…

      Extremely simplistic way of looking at Shump’s game and future.

    61. ruruland

      Owen:
      I wouldn’t say any team Melo has ever been on is better than the current Nuggets squad.

      Ok, the Olympic team….

      They don’t miss Melo, that’s for sure….

      This is so fucking stupid I have no idea why you continue to post here.

    62. lavor postell

      yellowboy90:
      By the way how great did the Nash trade work out for Phx. Who would have thought they would get a lottery pick out of it?

      regarding Dudley: Is it fair to say he is basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin minus the Ft% and the usage. However on the Knicks his usage wouldn’t be high anyway.

      I am on the fence on the trade but it seems like the Suns really want Shump. If they want him bad enough I would ask for Dudley, Gortat, and a 1st for Shump, Camby, and Novak. Camby is an expiring contract next year since his 3rd year is not guaranteed. If they want really want Shump come get him. lol.

      That is a deal that would make me want to lay heavy on our Knicks to emerge from the East.

    63. MJG1789

      Maybe I did underrate Dudley…but he is not a difference-maker. I’ve seen a lot of him living in SA and seeing tons of Spurs games. Kevin Martin is not a good comp. Dudley doesn’t really penetrate, he’s basically a catch and shoot player. His statistics are very good, as I reviewed them after seeing his TS posted. In real life however, his game doesn’t translate well to playoff basketball. Matt Bonner also has excellent shooting stats but is similarly playoff-useless. My own beloved Dale Ellis was similar in the 90s. I’m probably seeing the world through Shump-colored glasses but I hate giving up on young guys who get after it defensively, especially when he’s actively working on his shooting.

    64. Z-man

      Shump is not Brewer. He can hit the three and can’t be left alone out there. He can knock down a free throw. He can handle the balll and pass well enough to play spot PG minutes. He was being talked about as a possible DPOY candidate last year. Why are we so quick to forget that defense is hald of the game? We have serious challenges with perimeter D this year, this trade would hit us hard in that area (if Shump returns to form, there is no reason to believe that he wont in time.) I would be livid if we make this trade.

      Now if Dragic is involved…

    65. maxwell_3g

      BigBlueAL: Dudley is not a marginal player.His TS% on the season is just shy of 60% and for his career its 58%.I love Shump like everyone else but the facts are he continues to be an awful offensive player with the only thing saving him right now is he has made his 3pters this season but who knows how real that is since even Brewer was drilling 3pters early in the season.Shump even with shooting 43% from 3pt range so far has a TS% of only 44%!!

      I dunno I just think alot of people here who are fans of Shump have an irrational belief in his offense improving.The facts are he may not look as bad as Brewer offensively but he is just as bad as him.Felton and Brewer get killed for their poor shooting but Shump gets a pass for his just because he is still young and there is a hope he will improve.

      I doubt this trade happens and I am not wishing it happens but if it does I certainly wont complain, heck I would actually be a bit excited because it would certainly improve the offense pretty significantly imo.

      people….shump is less than a month back from an ACL surgery. he is rusty. he is also a “dog” (in a good way), as he is the exact type of player whose defense could swing a playoff series, especially against a team featuring a deadly, but aging, d wade. Dudley is a decent player, but absolutely nothing great. to give up on shump would be to give up on our one piece that has the greatest chance to improve between now and the end of the season. Im pretty sure Woody knows all of this, so Im not really that concerned about it happening. Its just amazing how so many Knicks fans constantly complain about us giving up on young talent and yet want to do it again and again

    66. Z-man

      Owen:
      I think this is what you are looking for….

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/06/introducing-points-over-par/

      Thanks, Owen, much appreciated, but I was looking more for a way to look at WP the same way we look at a box score on a daily basis. B-R posts somethig called a Game Score which I don’t understand at all but at least I can look at it and make my own judgments. Why doesn’t WoW or thenbageek.com publish game-by-game WP stats? They don’t seem that hard to calculate.

      As to PoP, since we don’t really debate that here, not sure if they are relevant to the current conversation. I guess that because they are derived from WP, there’s a tangential argument, but even in the example they gave, they only give the stats for one team.

    67. Owen

      Which Melo team was better than this edition of the Nuggets?

      The Nuggets are really good. And really young. Better than the Knicks I think.

      Z-man – Win Score is really the game metric I guess. Wins Produced is its translation, adjusted for pace, defense, league average, etc…..

      That’s as much as I know anyway….

      I

      ruruland: This is so fucking stupid I have no idea why you continue to post here.

    68. Frank

      Owen: Which Melo team was better than this edition of the Nuggets?

      The Nuggets are really good. And really young. Better than the Knicks I think.

      I think the argument against the post-Melo Nuggets has always been that without “superstars”, a team that relies so much on running is going to have a tough time in the playoffs. OKC is a running team but they also had 3 absolutely special talents during their playoff run last year that could take a game over even in the halfcourt.

      This current Nugget team looks nice, but it very much remains to be seen whether it’s any better than the old Melo-Nugget teams or better than this Knick team.

      Re: the whole Shump thing – per twitter, Woodson says Shump is going to start on CP3 today. It’s about time, although CP3 is going to run him into about 100 picks.

    69. Frank

      And apparently Woodson told his daughter (who went to GaTech like Shump) that “he’ll be right here with me”.

      Nothing to see here everyone re: these trade rumors — move on.

    70. Juany8

      Owen:
      Which Melo team was better than this edition of the Nuggets?

      The Nuggets are really good. And really young. Better than the Knicks I think.

      Z-man – Win Score is really the game metric I guess. Wins Produced is its translation, adjusted for pace, defense, league average, etc…..

      That’s as much as I know anyway….

      I

      If the Nuggets come within a few stolen inbounds passes of making the Finals this year, I’ll start coming on this site and annihilating ruru for his Melo love while singing Harden’s praises every single day. I’ll start backing up any advanced stat you feel like and I’ll actually make good arguments to back them up instead of relying on a childish level of debate to make my points. I’ll do anything, because I know for a fact that this Nuggets team isn’t even close to as good as the Melo-Chauncey Nuggets, nor even this Knicks team that has the second best chance in the East of making the Finals. The Nuggets MIGHT win a 1st round series against a non contender, but anyone writing off the Grizzlies should keep in mind that the year they made the playoff run that put them on the map they were an eighth seed missing Rudy Gay.

    71. Will the Thrill

      So this means that CP3 will mostly be guarded by Tyson Chandler and Stoudemire, correct?

      Frank: although CP3 is going to run him into about 100 picks.

    72. Frank

      Frank:
      And apparently Woodson told his daughter (who went to GaTech like Shump) that “he’ll be right here with me”.

      Nothing to see here everyone re: these trade rumors — move on.

      whoops. Jared Zwerling just tweeted that Woody told Shump he couldn’t assure him he wouldn’t be moved. Ouch.

    73. njasdjdh

      Juany8: If the Nuggets come within a few stolen inbounds passes of making the Finals this year, I’ll start coming on this site and annihilating ruru for his Melo love while singing Harden’s praises every single day. I’ll start backing up any advanced stat you feel like and I’ll actually make good arguments to back them up instead of relying on a childishlevel of debate to make my points. I’ll do anything, because I know for a fact that this Nuggets team isn’t even close to as good as the Melo-Chauncey Nuggets, nor even this Knicks team that has the second best chance in the East of making the Finals. The Nuggets MIGHT win a 1st round series against a non contender, but anyone writing off the Grizzlies should keep in mind that the year they made the playoff run that put them on the map they were an eighth seed missing Rudy Gay.

      It’s not as simple as that. OKC, SAS and LAC (if CP3 is healthy) are all better than any WC-playoff team from that ’08-’09 run with the exception of the ’08-’09 LAL and LAL vs those 3 teams is a good debate.

    74. Juany8

      njasdjdh: It’s not as simple as that.OKC, SAS and LAC (if CP3 is healthy) are all better than any WC-playoff team from that ’08-’09 run with the exception of the ’08-’09 LAL and LAL vs those 3 teams is a good debate.

      San Antonio was 2 years removed from winning a championship that year and they’ve been 2-2 in the last 2 playoffs when they started winning big in the regular season. Dallas had the whole “choker” label thing, but they were a very good team that was still in a midst of a decade long run of 50+ wins. Many of the same players that would make up their championship run were on that team, including Kidd, Dirk, Terry, and Barea. Houston had Yao Ming and Ron Artest, both still near the top of their games, and a very nice surrounding core.

      That Lakers core made 3 straight Finals and won 2 championships. Up until this point, none of the top 3 WCF teams are even remotely close to those Lakers. Miami might be, but they’re in the East. The Nuggets came the closest to beating those Lakers in 2009, a few mistakes on inbounds passes swung that series in the Lakers favor early on. Furthermore that Nuggets team was the second seed that year, and was winning at a high rate the next year before George Karl went out with cancer and their entire front line was injured. Hell the year the Nuggets made the WCF Melo and Kenyon Martin only played 66 games.

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