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Sunday, April 20, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Aug 11 2012)

  • [New York Times] On Pro Basketball: Dwight Howard Trade Gives Lakers Large Piece of Puzzle (Sat, 11 Aug 2012 05:50:06 GMT)
    Los Angeles acquired the best big man of the era — for the second time since signing Shaquille O’Neal in 1996 — and with Steve Nash, can also claim the N.B.A.’s top starting backcourt.

  • [New York Times] Dwight Howard Joins Star-Studded Lakers (Sat, 11 Aug 2012 06:39:05 GMT)
    Dwight Howard could complement the Lakers’ roster in a smoother way than have past star-driven mash-ups.

  • [New York Times] Basketball: U.S. Coach Riled by Question on His Impact (Sat, 11 Aug 2012 00:41:22 GMT)
    U.S. men’s basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski is rarely rattled by anything on the hardcourt, but a question at his post-game press conference on Friday set him off.

  • [New York Times] Dwight Howard to Lakers in 4-Team, 12-Player Deal (Sat, 11 Aug 2012 01:20:38 GMT)
    Dwight Howard held some of the championship trophies in the Los Angeles Lakers’ facility Friday, the first act of the next phase of his NBA career.

  • 98 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Aug 11 2012)

    1. danvt

      I guess Stern couldn’t jump in and keep the Lakers from getting the championship two years in a row. Wow, what an organization! You keep Pau, you upgrade Bynum, and you don’t even have to rebuild once Kobe retires, which won’t be for three years anyway.

      This move is a complete dog from the Magic’s perspective. Protected draft picks, Affalo, Harkless, and no significant cap relief. Now the whole league has them to thank for giving the Lakers their next dynasty. I don’t blame Denver or Philadelphia at all. How don’t you do that if you’re those teams.

      I guess I should be thankful that he didn’t go to Brooklyn but it’s just more proof that, as a basketball fan, I was born on the wrong coast.

    2. danvt

      http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/08/10/sports/basketball/10reuters-oly-bask-bkmbbl-krzyzewski.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

      I would think there would be a lot of stupid questions, especially at the Olympics where you don’t get veteran basketball writers. I wonder what set him off. Maybe there’s a grain of truth to it. I can imagine the players do what they want often. Still, I think the guy is a great coach. It must be hard to keep guys confident who are used to starting and being the man on their club teams. I mean, Carmelo has been an effective backup 4/5. You gotta give coach K some credit for that.

    3. sidestep

      It’s kind of an asshole question to ask since there is no way to answer it straight without screwing yourself. If you say anything that remotely points to your actual contribution, it can be cause for ridicule given the superiority of USA talent. Responding to the question with sarcasm seems apt to me here.

    4. Gideon Zaga

      Wrong Coast my ass we still have the Yanks (1st class org in history), Giants, and the rest lol

    5. Tony Pena

      We’ll see. The Eagles made all the splashy moves last year too, while the Giants shored up holes on the roster.

    6. Z-man

      I found this article re: accuracy of predictions for NBA seasons. Interestingly, Hollinger (and others) consistently outperformed WoW.

      http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/accuracy-of-predictions-for-wins-in-nba-in-2010-11/

      “WARP, Wins Produced and Win Shares did a surprisingly poor job in the last 3 seasons so even though it doesn’t tell us anything about those ratings I have a theory: you shouldn’t base your predictions on numbers from previous year and just plug them into a system because there are too many unpredictable variables… you really should get a little wild and add some changes not based on numbers. True or false?”

      Of course that is false. Either the model works or it doesn’t, right?

    7. Z-man

      I strongly suspect that there is still a serious statistical flaw with the way the WP metric deals with rebounding, especially defensive rebounding, and with low-volume scoring efficiency. Even with the adjustment, Landry Fields went from being the 6th best to the 8th best player in the NBA, while Kevin Love is still a better player than LeBron James.

      Figuring out why Kevin Love grades out higher in this metric than LeBron James (even though the position-adjusted aspect of WP would suggest that LeBron has a greater physical advantage over 3′s than Love has over 4′s) would probably result in a better metric.

      Perhaps the answer lies in the “transferability” of skills from one realm to another. LeBron can be his team’s top scorer in one game, top rebouncer in the next, and top assist-guy in the next, all at high efficiency (low turnovers, high TS% at high volume, etc.) while Love would hardly ever lead his team in assists (or is the ability to handle the ball and pass not a sizable contributor to team wins compared to defensive rebounding?)

    8. Z-man

      Before you jump down my throat, THCJ, I am NOT suggesting that WP is a bad metric..it may very well be as good or better than any current advanced metric, despite its flaws. Clearly, Kevin Love is a top-20 player, and possibly top-5-10, so it’s pretty balls-on for him in a gross sense. And if you admit (as you repeatedly have) that it is not a perfect metric, then working from the best seasons of the most perfect all-around (2-way) high-usage players out (PG: Magic, SG: Jordan, SF: LeBron, PF: Duncan, C: Olajuwan would probably be my choices) could not possibly be outscored by a player with one or two exceptional skills.

      Unless you truly want to argue that the Timberwolves won more games with Love than they would have with LeBron, or that the outcome is within a “reasonable” margin of error, why not look there for the flaw?

    9. Z-man

      Correction: could *result in a better metric in which a transcendent player having a typical season could* not possibly be outscored by a player with one or two exceptional skills.

    10. Z-man

      My guess is that doing this would lead to adjustments that do not undermine the essential WP philosophy, yet lead to more accurate player valuations.

    11. formido

      Incidentally, Hollinger razzed the Knicks heavily for letting Lin go (the claim it was a financial decision looking even sillier in the wake of LA’s payroll and both of those markets’ revenue generation). And Hollinger’s player rating had Lin as a top 40 player last year.

      Z-man:
      I found this article re: accuracy of predictions for NBA seasons. Interestingly, Hollinger (and others) consistently outperformed WoW.

      http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/accuracy-of-predictions-for-wins-in-nba-in-2010-11/

      “WARP, Wins Produced and Win Shares did a surprisingly poor job in the last 3 seasons so even though it doesn’t tell us anything about those ratings I have a theory: you shouldn’t base your predictions on numbers from previous year and just plug them into a system because there are too many unpredictable variables… you really should get a little wild and add some changes not based on numbers. True or false?”

      Of course that is false. Either the model works or it doesn’t, right?

    12. ephus

      Here is Charley Rosen’s take on the Dwight Howard trade. Read with asbestos mitts for the scalding comments directed to Dwight Howard (“Because of his dim-witted immaturity, he’s a loser.”) and Jim Buss.

      http://hoopshype.com/columns/rosen/the-trade-of-the-century

      If this provides any insight into the thinking of his former boss (Big Chief Triangle), I do not think we should expect Jackson to resurface in LA anytime soon.

    13. ruruland

      http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/49063/melos-improved-jumper-is-golden-for-usa

      “He’s making over eight 3-pointers per 48 minutes. He’s never made as many as two 3-pointers per 48 minutes in an NBA season. The most 3-pointers per 48 minutes in a season in NBA history is 5.3 by J.R. Smith in 2007-08.”

      Sure, one can argue the competition in the Olympics doesn’t compare to the NBA. But Carmelo is averaging nearly 13 more points per 48 minutes than any other USA player. Every other USA player is around or below their per 48 minutes average from last season.

      He’s shooting 53 percent on jump shots, tops of any Olympian with at least 25 attempts.”

      Similarly, Carmelo has drastically improved on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers the last couple seasons. His percentage skyrocketed from 29 in 2009-10 to 47 last season, which ranked 5th of the 134 players with at least 50 attempts. Giving extra value to 3-pointers, he had the 3rd-highest effective field-goal percentage of those same 134 players.

      Maybe he’s shooting so well because he’s getting a ton of open shots? Not really. Only 35 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers have been unguarded in the Olympics……..”

      Wait for it, wait for it……….
      “Last season, more than a third of his plays were isolation. He’s been the most efficient isolation player in the Olympics. But only 14 percent of his plays have been isolation.

      Instead, more than half of Carmelo’s points have come on transition and spot-up plays. Thirty percent of his points have come from catch-and-jumpers in the Olympics, whereas only 12 percent of his points were scored that way last NBA season.

      If Carmelo can find easier ways to score other than isolation, the Knicks the Knicks could reap the benefits of his best NBA season yet.”

    14. ephus

      The only way for ‘Melo to score more in transition is for the Knicks to run more in transition. Anthony seems to be in shape to run, Stat has always been a transition player, JR Smith literally brings the crowd to its feet and Tyson Chandler is a strong rebounder to initiate, but who is going to run the center of the break? Historically, Kidd was a great transition PG, but his speed is long gone. Felton needs to be in shape to run. And I have no idea whether Prigioni can get the job done.

    15. flossy

      I don’t think much of Raymond Felton and am pissed that he’s our starting PG, but (last year aside?) he has always been one of the league’s fastest end-to-end players with the ball in his hands. We’ve actually got a lot of players who thrive in transition (Amar’e, JR Smith, Shumpert hopefully, Brewer) so if Carmelo gets with that program, I think Felton can push the ball well enough–and it will be to everyone’s benefit. It’s if Carmelo slows the offense down that will be the real problem, since Felton can’t shoot and is not that good in the halfcourt.

    16. ruruland

      ephus:
      The only way for ‘Melo to score more in transition is for the Knicks to run more in transition.Anthony seems to be in shape to run, Stat has always been a transition player, JR Smith literally brings the crowd to its feet and Tyson Chandler is a strong rebounder to initiate, but who is going to run the center of the break?Historically, Kidd was a great transition PG, but his speed is long gone.Felton needs to be in shape to run.And I have no idea whether Prigioni can get the job done.

      Having gone through last year’s video with Kidd, he’s still one of the game’s best fast-break initiators.

      These days he runs the break much the same way Andre Miller always has, which is to say he doesn’t run much at all. Miller has spent much of his career racking up assists on long, pinpoint accurate passes from behind the half-court line to athletic teammates streaking ahead of him, Melo being at the front of that list.

      Kidd had far and away the best rebound rate of any point guard in the NBA last year, and he’s led NBA pgs in defensive rebound rate every year of his career going back to at least 2001, and last year he was a better defensive rebounder than most shooting guards about half of the qualified small forwards.

      Kidd’s incredible anticipation is not limited to rebounds. Obviously, the benefits of having a guard get the rebound means he has more time to analyze how the floor is being shaped in front of him. It also lets Kidd get a little bit of a head start on the break, taking the middle of the floor so his wings can find their lanes.

      Kidd sees things before they happen, which sometimes mea

    17. ruruland

      means he’s passing ahead to great finishers who are in advantageous position against the transition defense.

      Kidd doesn’t get as many assists as he used to on the break, but he puts guys in very good position to score from 2-3 dribbles out.

      Felton is also a very good transition player when he’s fit. He does everything great except finish.

      Amar’e and Melo have traditionally been two of the most dangerous runners at their position in the game. We haven’t seen that in New York yet for obvious reasons. Kidd and Felton will change that.

    18. ephus

      I have no doubt that if Felton is in shape, he is a very strong transition PG. He always has reminded me of Sherman Douglas. When Douglas went from round to pudgy, he lost his ability to lead the break.

      If Kidd runs the break by passing the ball from half court, he will not be a good match-up with Novak. Novak needs for the ball to get pushed into the paint so that he is open for the transition 3.

      Given the strengths and weaknesses of the players on this roster, I think Woodson is going to have a real challenge putting together the most synergistic rotations.

    19. Juany8

      Z-man:
      I found this article re: accuracy of predictions for NBA seasons. Interestingly, Hollinger (and others) consistently outperformed WoW.

      http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/accuracy-of-predictions-for-wins-in-nba-in-2010-11/

      “WARP, Wins Produced and Win Shares did a surprisingly poor job in the last 3 seasons so even though it doesn’t tell us anything about those ratings I have a theory: you shouldn’t base your predictions on numbers from previous year and just plug them into a system because there are too many unpredictable variables… you really should get a little wild and add some changes not based on numbers. True or false?”

      Of course that is false. Either the model works or it doesn’t, right?

      Not very surprising that Vegas dominates these ratings. If you want to know who’s doing serious statistical analysis on basketball, that’s as far as you need to go. Which means any system that gives significantly different results from Vegas is clearly wrong. That’s a pretty simple little check for anyone trying to develop a player/team rating system to predict future results. Nobody beats Vegas.

    20. Juany8

      Also pretty funny that ESPN forecast is one of the best predictors of future success. Wins Produced and Wins Shares are getting out predicted by random writers on ESPN lol…

    21. sidestep

      From the LAL press conf with Kupchak:

      Q: “Going forward, having Dwight, your payroll is huge. Any concern about that?”

      A: …Dr. Buss is a very competitive owner, and his family is also very competitive. And when it comes down to making a decision about a couple dollars or a million dollars or 10 million dollars or putting another banner up? He can’t help himself. He chooses to go for the banner.”

    22. er

      wow so we are making jeremy lin – dwight howard comparisons now i would laugh but its just terrible

      sidestep:
      From the LAL press conf with Kupchak:

      Q: “Going forward, having Dwight, your payroll is huge. Any concern about that?”

      A: …Dr. Buss is a very competitive owner, and his family is also very competitive. And when it comes down to making a decision about a couple dollars or a million dollars or 10 million dollars or putting another banner up? He can’t help himself. He chooses to go for the banner.”

    23. sidestep

      er:
      wow so we are making jeremy lin – dwight howard comparisons now i would laugh but its just terrible

      Your ability to read is not as good as your imagination. I wasn’t comparing players. I was thinking It’s good to be a Lakers fan; they can actually do what fans should do, which is be happy about their FO spending money so they can be entertained. When did you ever read a Lakers board where fans are crying about the luxury tax implications of their assets? Meanwhile, the Dolan apologists speak so protectively of Dolan’s money as if it were their own. /disgust

    24. Gideon Zaga

      +1000 as usual. I have said this before but Woodson has a lot of tools that just don’t fit. The good thing though is that we are versatile if not for egos but Woodson has shown that he can handle that a bit. We are like the Lakers in this regard we can play the Dantoni offense, the triangle, up tempo, slow tempo, the Melo/iverson offense and our defense is bomb. I wish the FO has somebody to scour the net during games for ideas and in game management tactics. I’m sure teams do this all the time. A lot of good info flows during games and I was very surprised with Woody when he couldn’t solve Miami fronting Melo during the playoffs but hey we’ll see maybe he’s working on his game too. But i really believe the season comes down to Woodson.

      ephus:
      I have no doubt that if Felton is in shape, he is a very strong transition PG.He always has reminded me of Sherman Douglas.When Douglas went from round to pudgy, he lost his ability to lead the break.

      If Kidd runs the break by passing the ball from half court, he will not be a good match-up with Novak.Novak needs for the ball to get pushed into the paint so that he is open for the transition 3.

      Given the strengths and weaknesses of the players on this roster, I think Woodson is going to have a real challenge putting together the most synergistic rotations.

    25. jon abbey

      can we stop with the fat Felton comments? we saw pix after the trade, dude looks skinnier than he did when he was on NY last time.

    26. knicknyk

      jon abbey:
      can we stop with the fat Felton comments? we saw pix after the trade, dude looks skinnier than he did when he was on NY last time.

      And the old man Kidd comments. Just give the players the benefit of the doubt.

    27. jon abbey

      well, Kidd is old. how good he is can be debated, but there’s no debating that he will turn 40 in March. Felton is almost certainly not fat anymore, though.

    28. knicknyk

      jon abbey:
      well, Kidd is old. how good he is can be debated, but there’s no debating that he will turn 40 in March. Felton is almost certainly not fat anymore, though.

      I know he is old. But he can still be productive. He is going to be a back up anyway and a lot of the positives he brings is off the court as well, leadership, breaking down tape with Shump and JR, a cool head. There is a lot of good things he does for the team, but it seems that some are diminishing everything he does and solely focusing on his age.

    29. knicknyk

      jon abbey:
      well, Kidd is old. how good he is can be debated, but there’s no debating that he will turn 40 in March. Felton is almost certainly not fat anymore, though.

      And you are right about Feltion he was looking good last time I saw. And this is coming from someone that has never been high on Felton.

    30. Z-man

      formido: Incidentally, Hollinger razzed the Knicks heavily for letting Lin go (the claim it was a financial decision looking even sillier in the wake of LA’s payroll and both of those markets’ revenue generation). And Hollinger’s player rating had Lin as a top 40 player last year.

      As he/it should; the only question about Lin’s numbers is sample size, and downward trajectory of his post-Linsanity play. You could make compelling cases for either decision. Until Lin sustains .140WS level of play (he dropped off significantly after the first 10 games), I choose to believe that he is more likely to regress than to improve or even stay the same.

    31. knicknyk

      Z-man: As he/it should; the only question about Lin’s numbers is sample size, and downward trajectory of his post-Linsanity play. You could make compelling cases for either decision. Until Lin sustains .140WS level of play (he dropped off significantly after the first 10 games), I choose to believe that he is more likely to regress than to improve or even stay the same.

      Wait, hold on. You keep talking about a downward trajectory post Linsanity play that isn’t true. I have seen you say this like 30 different times and I never said anything before but now it is getting silly. Let’s not go all revisionist history just because the kid is gone.

    32. Z-man

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/splits/2012/

      Look at the Lin splits by month and compare February to March, since this divides his meaningful 26 games into 2 halves (February’s 14 games include his breakout game vs. Nets and 12 starts, March has last 13 starts)

      FG% Feb: .472; March .407
      FT attempts: Feb: 99; March 67
      Assists: Feb 118; March: 82

      His 3-pt% was lousy for both halfs: .325 vs. .324
      The good news: his turnovers wnet down (

    33. Z-man

      I don’t think that there is enough data to judge Lin’s ultimate career trajectory, and I think that the data that exists makes an equivalent case for regressing as it does for improving. You can choose to believe otherwise and I do not have enough data to refute you. But the same is true the other way. It is truly a coin flip. If you want to be optimistic, go ahead, but you are doing nothing more than guessing. Was it Lin’s injury that slowed him down? Was it the drama of Melo’s return and D’Antoni’s departure? Or was he an overhyped flash in the pan on his way to reverting to who he was projected to be once the league got to know him? I’m going with the class is half-empty and Dolan/Grunwald got this one right. We’ll see.

    34. sidestep

      The post-split performance was affected by his undiagnosed meniscus tear. It’s unclear how many games that influenced, but those stats have an asterisk next to them.

    35. knicknyk

      You are not applying any perspective whatsoever to your figures. His usage rate went down. The ball was in his hands less and less. Baron Davis came back so him and Lin played for periods on the floor together and Lin’s minutes went down as well. Melo came back so the ball was taking out of Lin’s hands and put in Melo’s. You watched the games I know you did because you commented in the game threads so you should know all of this. So many different factors that are not being mentioned. Focusing purely on his last 7 games under Woodson (which was when I felt he played his best basketball) he averaged per 36, 18 & 8 I believe. Over that same period only two other pg’s had numbers better than him Parker and CP3. Like you said his TO’s went down, his defense was better, was going left with a lot more confidence, his FT shooting improved etc. There was a point where he was shooting technicals for the Knicks.There were times when the starters weren’t even playing in the fourth quarter because we were blowing out teams. With him and Melo managing the offense, we were having 6 or 7 guys in double digits, and he was taking on average about 14 shot attempts. It was clear that he was more comfortable playing with Melo and Amare under Woodson than he was under Dantoni. It was a little bit more of a structured offense and him and Melo were playing well together (which is why I laugh at the whole Melo vs Lin thing). All of this is what I remember off the top of my head. To be frank, that 7 game period was the best basketball I saw all season, better than Linsanity and better than Melo’s April. That was what I wanted to see for next year but c’est la vie. Don’t get me wrong he isn’t perfect he has his flaws and had plenty of bad games. But for somebody that was not even supposed to start, Lin played well for us. Give credit where it is due. What I can’t stand is all this revisionist history and Knick fans trying to convince themselves that Lin sucked. It is childish to…

    36. knicknyk

      Z-man:
      I don’t think that there is enough data to judge Lin’s ultimate career trajectory, and I think that the data that exists makes an equivalent case for regressing as it does for improving. You can choose to believe otherwise and I do not have enough data to refute you. But the same is true the other way. It is truly a coin flip. If you want to be optimistic, go ahead, but you are doing nothing more than guessing. Was it Lin’s injury that slowed him down? Was it the drama of Melo’s return and D’Antoni’s departure? Or was he an overhyped flash in the pan on his way to reverting to who he was projected to be once the league got to know him? I’m going with the class is half-empty and Dolan/Grunwald got this one right. We’ll see.

      I respectfully disagree. How did the league get to know him if he was still putting up above average numbers in his last 7 games? That defies logic. I also find it very hard to believe that Dolan and Grunwald got this right because there decision wasn’t motivated by basketball reasons. I think we all know this, let’s not start defending Dolan. I don’t think it is a matter of being optimistic I think it is actually being sensible. Daryl Morey (analytics guys) has a history of finding undervalued guards (once back ups) who prove to be solid starters, Lowry, Dragic. And the rockets were high on him since he came out of college. I disagree that there is an equivalent case for regressing as there is for improving. In fact most signs point to the fact that he will improve. You don’t do what he did ( mainly how he did it) for 25 games and then regress. He doesn’t have the style of play that is conducive to being a “flash in the pan”. Unless he becomes slow, fat, dumb and blind his quick first step, court vision, high BBIQ won’t disappear. Turnovers, ball handling, shooting can improve but all that other stuff sticks…

    37. Z-man

      sidestep: The post-split performance was affected by his undiagnosed meniscus tear. It’s unclear how many games that influenced, but those stats have an asterisk next to them.

      That’s one theory. Another is that he wasn’t a surprise anymore and teams figured out how to more effectively force him away from his strenghts and exploit his weaknesses. In this case, the asterisk should be next to his first 10 games, when he came out of nowhere with no scouting report during a lockout season. There is far to little data to confirm either scenario. Either conclusion is nothing more than speculation.

    38. Z-man

      knicknyk: Focusing purely on his last 7 games under Woodson (which was when I felt he played his best basketball) he averaged per 36, 18 & 8 I believe

      I watched those games and looked at the stats. What I saw was a mediocre-shooting, defensively challenged, turnover-prone PG who was not getting the foul calls on drives to the basket.

      I also saw 3 road games vs. Boston, San Antonio and Dallas in early March where there was no evidence that the knee was acting up but he was far from the difference maker he was earlier.

      I saw a guy who had lots of trouble on the defensive end vs. Calderon, Jennings, and Chalmers, not to mention Rondo, Parker and Williams.

      Ultimately, I saw a marginal starter or very good backup worth around the mini-MLE, and maybe the full MLE due to his marketability. I have no problem with you seeing something differently.

      I know we’ve been down this road ad nauseum, and to be fair, I didn’t even bring Lin up, formido did and I was only responding to him in the context of Hollinger, WP48, etc. In a few months, we’ll have a much better idea who the real Jeremy Lin is.

    39. Z-man

      knicknyk: I also find it very hard to believe that Dolan and Grunwald got this right because there decision wasn’t motivated by basketball reasons. I think we all know this, let’s not start defending Dolan. I don’t think it is a matter of being optimistic I think it is actually being sensible. Daryl Morey (analytics guys) has a history of finding undervalued guards (once back ups) who prove to be solid starters, Lowry, Dragic.

      Morey is a genius. You can tell because his teams have done so well. He’s been GM in Houston for 6 years and his teams have won one playoff series. I think he made a monumental blunder basketball-wise in letting both Dragic and Lowry go and replacing them with Lin and it looks like Machado, another PAWS48 wonder. Not that the Rockets were going anywhere anyway.

      Looking forward to see how Lin fares in his 20+ games vs. Westbrook, Parker, Nash and Paul, and Lawson.

    40. knicknyk

      Z-man: Morey is a genius. You can tell because his teams have done so well. He’s been GM in Houston for 6 years and his teams have won one playoff series. I think he made a monumental blunder basketball-wise in letting both Dragic and Lowry go and replacing them with Lin and it looks like Machado, another PAWS48 wonder. Not that the Rockets were going anywhere anyway.

      Looking forward to see how Lin fares in his 20+ games vs. Westbrook, Parker, Nash and Paul, and Lawson.

      Lol. Are we really insulting Rockets ownership when we have James Dolan is our owner? Please just stop it. Pot calling the kettle black. And it is highly hypocritical to talk about a small sample size and then cherry pick games where you think he performed poorly. But I am sure you have heard this all before. Anyway, agree to disagree I am not going to beat a dead horse all over again. I commented because you keep talking about a downward trajectory of performance which is frankly inaccurate as I said above.

    41. Z-man

      First of all, Morey is the GM, not the owner. Second, if we were talking about 26 games from any other NBA player, it would be blasted as cherry-picking, which is my entire point, one you can’t seem to comprehend…Lin’s entire career is too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, you can parse out the positives or the negatives, but it’s cherry-picking either way.

      Regarding Morey, the proof is in the pudding, what has he accomplished as Rockets GM? He’s been there six years…SIX YEARS…and his team is in full rebuilding mode. In the last 6 years, Dolan’s GMs (Walsh and Grunwald) have turned the Knicks from a capped-out, scandal-ridden laughing stock to a team projected by most analysts to be a top-5 team in the EC at worst. But I’m sure that Lin ans Asik will both become all-NBA players by the time they are making a combined $30 million in 2014-2015.

    42. Juany8

      Z-man:
      First of all, Morey is the GM, not the owner. Second, if we were talking about 26 games from any other NBA player, it would be blasted as cherry-picking, which is my entire point, one you can’t seem to comprehend…Lin’s entire career is too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, you can parse out the positives or the negatives, but it’s cherry-picking either way.

      Regarding Morey, the proof is in the pudding, what has he accomplished as Rockets GM? He’s been there six years…SIX YEARS…and his team is in full rebuilding mode. In the last 6 years, Dolan’s GMs (Walsh and Grunwald) have turned the Knicks from a capped-out, scandal-ridden laughing stock to a team projected by most analysts to be a top-5 team in the EC at worst.But I’m sure that Lin ans Asik will both become all-NBA players by the time they are making a combined $30 million in 2014-2015.

      When you have 2 All-NBA players suddenly disappear from your roster, and you have an entire, capped out team built around those 2 players, your team isn’t going to do good, no matter how good the gm is. Would Sam Presti be a terrible GM if Portland had drafted Durant 1st and he had been stuck with Oden? Houston has had as much bad luck these past few years as any team has ever had, no one would be this excited about Dwight and Bynum if Yao was still around

    43. knicknyk

      Z-man:
      First of all, Morey is the GM, not the owner. Second, if we were talking about 26 games from any other NBA player, it would be blasted as cherry-picking, which is my entire point, one you can’t seem to comprehend…Lin’s entire career is too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, you can parse out the positives or the negatives, but it’s cherry-picking either way.

      Regarding Morey, the proof is in the pudding, what has he accomplished as Rockets GM? He’s been there six years…SIX YEARS…and his team is in full rebuilding mode. In the last 6 years, Dolan’s GMs (Walsh and Grunwald) have turned the Knicks from a capped-out, scandal-ridden laughing stock to a team projected by most analysts to be a top-5 team in the EC at worst.But I’m sure that Lin ans Asik will both become all-NBA players by the time they are making a combined $30 million in 2014-2015.

      I know what Morey is but anyway my point still stands that he has been successful at selecting undervalued guards who prove that they are solid or better. The Mavs were also high on Lin. But please lets question there management as well to prove our point that they can’t see talent. And the entire point of this discussion was to apply perspective to your statements. You watch the games so you know exactly what I am talking about and yet you apply no perspective with your criticism that is all (see the hot mess that you posted in 39).

    44. Z-man

      Juany8: When you have 2 All-NBA players suddenly disappear from your roster, and you have an entire, capped out team built around those 2 players, your team isn’t going to do good, no matter how good the gm is. Would Sam Presti be a terrible GM if Portland had drafted Durant 1st and he had been stuck with Oden? Houston has had as much bad luck these past few years as any team has ever had, no one would be this excited about Dwight and Bynum if Yao was still around

      I’m shocked to hear you say this, especially considering that you have been critical of letting Lowry and Dragic go and have said that both of them are probably better than Lin.

      Even allowing for Yao and McGrady, do you honestly think Houston’s roster and prospects are better now than they were 2 years ago, and that they are heading in the right direction? Don’t they keep making roster moves to free up cap space for the big FAs that never come (see: CP3, Howard)? Valuable pieces like Scola, Landry, Dragic, Lowry, and Battier are gone, and what have they been replaced by?

      No to mention that he drafted Marcus Morris over PAWS48 favorites Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried, not to mention Shump and Singleton. And he traded the draft rights to Nicholas Batum for the rights to Darrell Arthur and Joey Dorsey. And he waived Lin for a pittance of cap space for a signing that never materialized, only to buy him back at 25X the cost.

      Look, I don’t have a problem with Morey, only with the logic that Lin must be good because Morey always liked him and signed him to a $25 mill contract. He’s clearly a stats-savvy smart guy with lots of good finds, like Budinger (who was also just churned for a draft pick, no?). Like most GMs, he is far from infallable, and I think his ditching of Dragic and Lowry and sighing Lin for relatively equal money will come back to haunt him.

    45. Z-man

      knicknyk: You watch the games so you know exactly what I am talking about and yet you apply no perspective with your criticism that is all (see the hot mess that you posted in 39).

      Not sure what you mean by this, so I won’t lower myself to respond. “You watch the games” is about the most invalid response one can make on this stats-oriented blog.

      knicknyk: The Mavs were also high on Lin.

      Then why didn’t they offer him a 4-year max deal with 2 years of poison pill salary?

    46. Juany8

      Z-man: I’m shocked to hear you say this, especially considering that you have been critical of letting Lowry and Dragic go and have said that both of them are probably better than Lin.

      Even allowing for Yao and McGrady, do you honestly think Houston’s roster and prospects are better now than they were 2 years ago, and that they are heading in the right direction? Don’t they keep making roster moves to free up cap space for the big FAs that never come (see: CP3, Howard)? Valuable pieces like Scola, Landry, Dragic, Lowry, and Battier are gone, and what have they been replaced by?

      No to mention that he drafted Marcus Morris over PAWS48 favorites Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried, not to mention Shump and Singleton. And he traded the draft rights to Nicholas Batum for the rights to Darrell Arthur and Joey Dorsey. And he waived Lin for a pittance of cap space for a signing that never materialized, only to buy him back at 25X the cost.

      Look, I don’t have a problem with Morey, only with the logic that Lin must be good because Morey always liked him and signed him to a $25 mill contract. He’s clearly a stats-savvy smart guy with lots of good finds, like Budinger (who was also just churned for a draft pick, no?). Like most GMs, he is far from infallable, and I think his ditching of Dragic and Lowry and sighing Lin for relatively equal money will come back to haunt him.

      RC Buford traded big for Richard Jefferson and Sam Presti drafted Jeff Green with a top pick. The problem with Morey is that he’s been stuck in such a bad situation, up until last year he was still trying to build a team around a Yao Ming that never got healthy. Suddenly, he was stuck in mediocrity but either he or the ownership refused to tank to rebuild. Even then, if the CP3 trade doesn’t get vetoed, Houston looks a lot better right now

    47. Juany8

      That being said, just because Morey was willing to give Lin a nice contract doesn’t guarantee he will be good, but the only reason Morey cut Lin was because he had 2 better PG’s on the roster and didn’t want to cut Flynn’s guaranteed contract after basically getting him for free. The way he handled the PG situation this off season was a little… inexplicable, but the team wasn’t going anywhere last year anyways

    48. Z-man

      Yao was a bad break, but once his feet went bad, there was good reason to go to plan B asap rather than hope for a recovery(see Walton and Bowie), not that there was much he could do with that salary, but you don’t have to continue to build around him. And as a Berri/moneyball guy, there was no reason for him to pick Marcus Morris over Leonard, Faried, or even Shumpert. He also thought Ariza could be a prime time player, and that didn’t work out too well.

    49. sidestep

      Z-man keeps emphasizing that the sampling size is tiny and therefore there is no basis to conclude anything. Setting aside the 26 games (since that’s already been discussed, and left at either agree-to-disagree, or simply silent dismissal), it is simply not true that there’s barely any data. There’s Lin’s college record, summer league, D-league — all of which looks good and does not point to regression. When numbers guys like Morey are crunching data, that includes all this info, which Z-man is happy to conveniently ignore.

      Big contracts have given to college players with much smaller sample sizes and ZERO NBA games, yet somehow Lin’s college record, summer league games, and D-league play and 26 games all somehow add up to a tiny sampling size on which nothing can be judged. The double-standard here is absurd, yet meanwhile the draft is predicated on a sampling size without a single NBA game.

    50. Z-man

      Lin was a mediocre shooter in 4 years at the great basketball powerhouse Harvard, shooting .333 from the much shorter 3-pt line against grossly inferior competition and never developing a left hand. He is shooting about the same mediocre 3-pt percentage in the NBA, including a consistently whopping .325 during the entire 26 games of his meaningful games. And are you seriously going to base anything on D-League and Summer League competition? If D-league stats are reliable, then Jerome Jordan is the next Wilt Chamberlain and Josh Selby is the next Chris Paul.

    51. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Z-man:
      *If D-league (Jordan) and Summer league (Selby)

      Jerome Jordan was good in the limited NBA minutes he played, though. Even if they’re garbage minutes, it’s a lot better to put up a +.200 WS/48 than a -0.100.

    52. knicknyk

      Juany8:
      That being said, just because Morey was willing to give Lin a nice contract doesn’t guarantee he will be good, but the only reason Morey cut Lin was because he had 2 better PG’s on the roster and didn’t want to cut Flynn’s guaranteed contract after basically getting him for free. The way he handled the PG situation this off season was a little… inexplicable, but the team wasn’t going anywhere last year anyways

      Morey has a history of finding undervalued guards who prove there worth. That was my point. I am laughing at how adamant some people are that Lin will fail. It is kind of funny, never seen this in my life before.

    53. knicknyk

      The draft is predicated on giving contracts to players who have yet to play in any NBA game. I am laughing that people do not see that. And so much focus on sample size and being a flash in the pan when considering his style of play it is highly doubtful that he will be a flash in the pan. You talk to death about his outside shooting being bad, and despite that he was still able to get buckets. And I find it hilarious that we are insulting another front office when ours is (please insert appropriate word). The Knicks have the worst record of any franchise since Dolan took over. But please, let’s look down our nose at another franchise.

    54. Bison

      Z-man:
      Lin was a mediocre shooter in 4 years at the great basketball powerhouse Harvard, shooting .333 from the much shorter 3-pt line against grossly inferior competition and never developing a left hand. He is shooting about the same mediocre 3-pt percentage in the NBA, including a consistently whopping .325 during the entire 26 games of his meaningful games. And are you seriously going to base anything on D-League and Summer League competition? If D-league stats are reliable, then Jerome Jordan is the next Wilt Chamberlain and Josh Selby is the next Chris Paul.

      You are desperately grasping at straws, Z-man. Your hatred of Lin must be deep and seriously irrational.

      For your information, plenty of great point guards never developed a reliable 3, including the greatest of them all, Magic Johnson (lifetime 3P%: 0.303, far, far worse than Lin). More complete table:

      PlayerCareer 3P%
      Magic Johnson0.303
      Derrick Rose0.310
      Tony Parker0.310

      et cetera ad nauseum. So poor shooting from downtown is NOT a bar to greatness in a PG. Lin does not really need a three point shot.

      But he might develop one anyhow. The latest information from his summer training has him hitting 76% of his threes (sample size: 500 shots). Of course, practice time is not NBA game time, but I think he is likely to improve.

      So ripping Lin’s three point shot is not only pointless, as plenty of great guards never needed one, but it is also grossly premature. You have forgotten what “fairness” means, Z-man.

    55. knicknyk

      Bison:
      Does anyone know how to write a table with decently aligned columns?

      What do you mean?
      If you explain exactly what you need I may be able to help. If it involves excel specifically.

    56. ruruland

      I’m a big Lin believer, but bringing up his lack of 3pt ability is fair in the context of an offense where he would have often been off the ball in open spot-up situations.

      I don’t see Lin ever developing into a prolific 3 point shooter for the simple fact that his shooting release is very slow.

      He can make all-star games as a guy who drives hard to the basket and takes the hits. Moreover, I don’t think his floor vision or release will allow his game to age very well. He’s likely to develop as a score-first, primary option point guard. None of those things are really here nor there though.

    57. knicknyk

      That is a totally reasonable thing to say. But Lol, the All Star Games have little to do with talent and merit. It is a popularity contest and seeing as how he is popular he will make it. But I do here where you are coming from. :)

    58. Bison

      knicknyk: What do you mean?
      If you explain exactly what you need I may be able to help. If it involves excel specifically.

      What I mean is, I want to know how to post a multi-column table here, where the columns are clean rectangles. But no matter what I do, the outcome is a series of lines with all the columns mashed together.

      I’ve tried using the TABLE html tag, but that doesn’t work either.

      Is there some way to do it?

    59. Z-man

      Bison: You are desperately grasping at straws, Z-man. Your hatred of Lin must be deep and seriously irrational.

      knicknyk: I am laughing at how adamant some people are that Lin will fail. It is kind of funny, never seen this in my life before.

      And the extreme language coming from you makes me wonder whether you are either Lin’s agent, lover or mother, ready to scratch the eyes out of anyone who dares to question his obviously awesome abilities and HOF potential. For the millionth time, I am not saying or hoping that he will fail, just skeptical that he will be worth the contract he signed with Morey, based on what I think are red flags. Why does that seem so patently irrational to you? Is it any more irrational than your willingness to overlook any possible downside to his game? Seriously, has a guy with 26 games of NBA experience ever been defended so passionately?

      And are we really going to compare Lin to the likes of Magic Johnson and Derrick Rose in any possible context, and expect to be taken seriously? Wow. And I’m the one who’s irrational?

    60. Bison

      ruruland:
      I’m a big Lin believer, but bringing up his lack of 3pt ability is fair in the context of an offense where he would have often been off the ball in open spot-up situations.

      No, it’s not fair for Z-man to dump on Lin’s 3-point shooting while professing to be happy with Felton. Felton was much worse last season: his 3P% was 0.305 versus Lin’s 0.320. So where’s the fairness?

      ruruland:
      I don’t see Lin ever developing into a prolific 3 point shooter for the simple fact that his shooting release is very slow.

      Shooting speed is to a large extent a function of confidence. As Lin improves his 3-pointer, his confidence will grow. As I mentioned above, he is currently hitting 76% in practice; I think his confidence will grow rapidly.

      ruruland:He can make all-star games as a guy who drives hard to the basket and takes the hits. Moreover, I don’t think his floor vision or release will allow his game to age very well. He’s likely to develop as a score-first, primary option point guard. None of those things are really here nor there though.

      Lin may well develop as a score-first PG, especially in Houston where he will have few restrictions. But I have hopes that he will see the light and follow Jason Kidd’s example.

      I think I was the first to see the similarities between the two guards, and that was why I wanted Lin to be more Kidd-like. I was happy when the Knicks signed Kidd as a mentor for the younger guard. I think he saw what I did, that the 8.3 assists per 36 that Lin racked up in 2012 suggests that vision won’t be a problem.

      There is hope that Lin might change, because he is quite aware of the need to do so: he admitted in an interview during Linsanity that he couldn’t take the hits indefinitely.

    61. knicknyk

      Your overreacting and exaggerating to prove a point. All I said was you aren’t applying perspective when presenting your critique that is all. That was my stance from the beginning of this conversation. I see him for exactly what he is strengths and weaknesses. Your crying just because I disagree with you and Jerry Stackhouse that he will live up to the contract and think that you are overblowing these “red flags” because of your lack of perspective. And please show me where I ever said he has HOF potential I dare you? And has a guy who did nothing but good things for the Knicks and the city of NY been critiqued so heavily? It goes both ways. Between the fans wishing Melo will fail to the fans wishing Lin will fail (not talking about you) I don’t know who is worse. Added to that is the revisionist history that is going around amongst some Knick fans. And I love the classic “don’t compare him to Magic or Rose” bit. All Bison was doing was adding a bit of “perspective” to the discussion of 3 pt shooting. You know what perspective is right? Did he ever say that Lin was going to become the next Magic or Rose? Please just stop it

    62. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Jerome Jordan was good in the limited NBA minutes he played, though. Even if they’re garbage minutes, it’s a lot better to put up a +.200 WS/48 than a -0.100.

      I liked him, but would not recommend signing him to a backloaded $25 million contract.

      knicknyk: The draft is predicated on giving contracts to players who have yet to play in any NBA game.

      Yes, and those contracts are limited by recent CBAs precisely because in the past, so many of these players turned out to be cap-busting stiffs. The whole point is to let players prove that they are worth the money. Tell me, how many draft picks are signed for $25 mill after 26 meaningful games and 1,200 minutes of overall NBA experience, especially those with zero big-time college or european pedigree to speak of?

      Look, Lin deserves every bit of it, business is business and he made the best of his opportunity. That doesn’t make him a sure-fire winner, though.

    63. Z-man

      knicknyk: All I said was you aren’t applying perspective when presenting your critique that is all.

      So if I agree with you, I have perspective, and if not, I don’t. That’s fair.

    64. knicknyk

      Z-man: So if I agree with you, I have perspective, and if not, I don’t. That’s fair.

      Nope. It has nothing to do with you agreeing with me or not. I am fine with us not agreeing on something. It is just seeing both sides of the story, which you are not doing. It is really that simple. You are way to far left, and you are also assuming that I am way to far right (which I am not).

    65. knicknyk

      I maybe mistaken but didn’t Kyrie play in like only a handful of college games? He was still the number one draft pick and his salary his approximately 30 million over 4 years if I am not wrong?

    66. Z-man

      knicknyk: I maybe mistaken but didn’t Kyrie play in like only a handful of college games? He was still the number one draft pick and his salary his approximately 30 million over 4 years if I am not wrong?

      knicknyk: I maybe mistaken but didn’t Kyrie play in like only a handful of college games? He was still the number one draft pick and his salary his approximately 30 million over 4 years if I am not wrong?

      Yes, you are both mistaken and wrong (what a shock!) Talk about perspective…Irving was the consensus #1 pick in the draft and rookie of the year. #1 pick salary is largely determined by the CBA and is generally for a base amount, with +/- 20% negotiation room which is almost always negotiated up to the max. Irving’s deal was very typical and comes in at around $23 million for 4 years, $2 mill less than Lin. Irving will make $7 million less than Lin will over the next 3 years. Lin will make more in year 3 than Nash ever made in any year. He will make nearly as much in his first 5 years as Paul and Williams did, or Westbrook will. He will make more in his first 5 years than MVP Derrick Rose made in his first 4.

      Again, I don’t begrudge Lin at all. He found a visionary (or sucker) willing to pay him superstar money based on a handful of games. Time will tell. At this point, I’m taking the under, and will not be surprised if he has his ass handed to him regurlarly next year by opposing PGs, especially the ones mentioned above.

    67. Z-man

      knicknyk: Nope. It has nothing to do with you agreeing with me or not. I am fine with us not agreeing on something. It is just seeing both sides of the story, which you are not doing. It is really that simple. You are way to far left, and you are also assuming that I am way to far right (which I am not).

      Really? You are the one who only sees one side of the story. Your narrative is this: Lin’s attributes are proven, irrefutable and maintainable, and his flaws are insignificant or correctable with practice. Mine is that while I loved a lot of what I saw and was as berserk as anyone during Linsanity, I also saw cause for serious question marks, especially on defense but on offense as well. Basketball-wise, my opinion is that he doesn’t merit a contract that pays him on par with the top PGs in the game at this point in his career. It’s just an opinion, and I have no problem with you disagreeing with it. What I have a problem with is that you think I have some hidden agenda, or that I have an irrational hatrid for Lin, or that I have not fully considered both sides of the argument. Then you throw data from the summer league and Harvard at me, like they have any real relevance.

    68. sidestep

      When people toss out the 15million number, it’s intellectually dishonest, because it conveniently ignores that the first two years pay out 5-million a year, which is a bargain. The contract averages 8 mil a year, which is how it should be talked about, and for Houston it counts as 8 mil a year for luxury tax purposes. Stop with the 15 million already.

    69. sidestep

      “Lin will make more in year 3 than Nash ever made in any year.”

      You are better than this. This is a straw argument.

    70. Z-man

      sidestep: When people toss out the 15million number, it’s intellectually dishonest, because it conveniently ignores that the first two years pay out 5-million a year, which is a bargain. The contract averages 8 mil a year, which is how it should be talked about, and for Houston it counts as 8 mil a year for luxury tax purposes. Stop with the 15 million already.

      Really? So, if he’s traded after year 2, the receiving team only has to pay 8 million in salary to him? If not, then it’s relevant, isn’t it?

      That said, I don’t think Lin’s “accomplishments” justify $8 million over 3 years either. I think $5 million is fair, but hardly a bargain, considering the risk…oh, I forgot, you have conclusively proven that there is no risk, he’s a sure-fire top-15 PG next year.

      We’ll see…

    71. Z-man

      sidestep: “Lin will make more in year 3 than Nash ever made in any year.”You are better than this. This is a straw argument.

      If you think so…

    72. Brian Cronin

      That said, I don’t think Lin’s “accomplishments” justify $8 million over 3 years either. I think $5 million is fair, but hardly a bargain, considering the risk…oh, I forgot, you have conclusively proven that there is no risk, he’s a sure-fire top-15 PG next year.

      So your knock on him is that you think he is unreasonably betting that Lin will be a top-15 PG next year? Even though you yourself said that a reasonable expectation (not a “chance,” but “a reasonable expectation) for Lin next season was that he would be (in those precise words) a top-15 PG?

      Odd.

    73. Z-man

      Not “unreasonable”, just very risky; I see the logic on both sides of the argument. If I had to make the decision, it would be a tough one, far from the no-brainer that many (including you) have made it out to be. First, I think it is 50-50 at best that he is a top 15 PG next year, and doubtful that he is in the top 10. I also think he could be anywhere from the top 10 to the bottom 10. It’s a total crap shoot, in my opinion.

      If he is in fact #15, does that justify a 3-yr/$25 million contract? I don’t know salaries as well as you, so tell me, what does the #15 PG traditionally earn when he is fairly paid? Then factor in the small sample size/uncertainty of a 26 game sample in a weird season. Finally, ignore marketability issues by assuming that the goal in the short run is to come as close to winning a title as possible during the Melo-Chandler-Amare window, not to maximize income.

      It’s “reasonable” to expect that Felton will have a breakout year, Amare will revert back to his pre-injury efficiency, and Melo will finally become a statistical superstar. It’s also reasonable to expect that Felton will get fat and play like he did last year, Amare will continue to decline, and Melo will lay to his career numbers. Reasonable doesn’t mean “probable” or “certain” or worth a Morey-sized gamble, or worth a $40 million luxury tax risk. It just means that it can be justified by a fair application of available information. In this instance, it is no less reasonable to predict that he will be, say, a 16-25 PG (and conclude that Felton/Kidd/Prigioni is a better combo than Lin and any of the others).

    74. knicknyk

      Z-man: Really? You are the one who only sees one side of the story.Your narrative is this: Lin’s attributes are proven, irrefutable and maintainable, and his flaws are insignificant or correctable with practice. Mine is that while I loved a lot of what I saw and was as berserk as anyone during Linsanity, I also saw cause for serious question marks, especially on defense but on offense as well. Basketball-wise, my opinion is that he doesn’t merit a contract that pays him on par with the top PGs in the game at this point in his career. It’s just an opinion, and I have no problem with you disagreeing with it.What I have a problem with is that you think I have some hidden agenda, or that I have an irrational hatrid for Lin, or that I have not fully considered both sides of the argument. Then you throw data from the summer league and Harvard at me, like they have any real relevance.

      Lmao. When did I say all of this? Your putting words in my mouth again.

    75. knicknyk

      Z-man: knicknyk: I maybe mistaken but didn’t Kyrie play in like only a handful of college games? He was still the number one draft pick and his salary his approximately 30 million over 4 years if I am not wrong?

      Yes, you are both mistaken and wrong (what a shock!) Talk about perspective…Irving was the consensus #1 pick in the draft and rookie of the year. #1 pick salary is largely determined by the CBA and is generally for a base amount, with +/- 20% negotiation room which is almost always negotiated up to the max. Irving’s deal was very typical and comes in at around $23 million for 4 years, $2 mill less than Lin. Irving will make $7 million less than Lin will over the next 3 years. Lin will make more in year 3 than Nash ever made in any year. He will make nearly as much in his first 5 years as Paul and Williams did, or Westbrook will. He will make more in his first 5 years than MVP Derrick Rose made in his first 4.

      Again, I don’t begrudge Lin at all.He found a visionary (or sucker) willing to pay him superstar money based on a handful of games. Time will tell.At this point, I’m taking the under, and will not be surprised if he has his ass handed to him regurlarly next year by opposing PGs, especially the ones mentioned above.

      Are these figures incorrect?
      http://hoopshype.com/salaries/cleveland.htm

    76. knicknyk

      “At this point, I’m taking the under, and will not be surprised if he has his ass handed to him regurlarly next year by opposing PGs, especially the ones mentioned above”.

      You say things like this and you wonder why some would assume or have the perception that you are wishing that he fails.

    77. knicknyk

      You keep contradicting yourself. And overreacting and exaggerating and putting words in peoples mouths. This isn’t the first time. And when somebody calls you out on it, you start putting all sorts of ridiculous conditions on your argument. Just stop it.

    78. exel

      Z-man:
      Finally, ignore marketability issues by assuming that the goal in the short run is to come as close to winning a title as possible during the Melo-Chandler-Amare window, not to maximize income.

      Wouldn’t this be a point to sign Lin? Knicks are over the salary cap and don’t have the assets to add players who can potentially be a top 10 point guard. Would you rather have Lin filling the 12th roster spot as opposed to say, James White? Lin has shown he can play in the NBA and has a skill set that can be used effectively against playoff-calibre teams, see 4th quarter performance against Philly and Indiana under Woodson after he had been “scouted.”

    79. ruruland

      knicknyk:
      That is a totally reasonable thing to say. But Lol, the All Star Games have little to do with talent and merit. It is a popularity contest and seeing as how he is popular he will make it. But I do here where you are coming from. :)

      I understand that but for the sake of brevity many of us use all-star to denote by proxy a player who is one of the best at his position in the conference.

    80. ruruland

      Bison: No, it’s not fair for Z-man to dump on Lin’s 3-point shooting while professing to be happy with Felton.Felton was much worse last season: his 3P% was 0.305 versus Lin’s 0.320.So where’s the fairness?

      Shooting speed is to a large extent a function of confidence.As Lin improves his 3-pointer, his confidence will grow.As I mentioned above, he is currently hitting 76% in practice; I think his confidence will grow rapidly.

      Lin may well develop as a score-first PG, especially in Houston where he will have few restrictions.But I have hopes that he will see the light and follow Jason Kidd’s example.

      I think I was the first to see the similarities between the two guards, and that was why I wanted Lin to be more Kidd-like. I was happy when the Knicks signed Kidd as a mentor for the younger guard.I think he saw what I did, that the 8.3 assists per 36 that Lin racked up in 2012 suggests that vision won’t be a problem.

      There is hope that Lin might change, because he is quite aware of the need to do so: he admitted in an interview during Linsanity that he couldn’t take the hits indefinitely.

      Nah, Lin’s release is not going to change unless he reforms his shot, which takes hundreds of hours.

      Kidd’s vision and anticipation are supernatural talents that can’t be taught. I think Lin can improve, but he’ll never have Kidd or Nash’s ability.

    81. knicknyk

      ruruland: I understand that but for the sake of brevity many of us use all-star to denote by proxy a player who is one of the best at his position in the conference.

      Really? I find it funny that people do that.

    82. Z-man

      knicknyk: You say things like this and you wonder why some would assume or have the perception that you are wishing that he fails.

      It’s not a wish, it’s a prediction (more of a guess, since my entire point is that we don’t know enough about him yet.) I am also predicting that Landry Fields will not earn his $20 mill contract in Toronto (although I really like his personality.) Yet you don’t seem to be bothered too much by that. At this time last year, the big question was: Who is the real Landry Fields: the emerging star he was the first 50 games or the player he had regressed to for the rest of the year, culminating in wetting the bed the playoffs? There were some great jon abbey vs. THCJ exchanges on this topic back then. I hoped Landry would improve during the long off-season (I do have a rooting interest in seeing all things Knick succeed) but soon lost confidence and joined the abbey camp. It wasn’t anything personal. Now that Landry’s in Toronto, I have no reason to “hope” for him to succeed. Same is true for Lin. It’s nothing personal. So why are you so bent out of shape about my criticism of Lin but haven’t said a word about Fields? There are metrics that have predicted (and still do) that Fields is a top-flight player. Juany8, jon abbey and others have not only been dismissive of nice guy Fields, they have used him as a one-man refutation of Berri and WP48.

      At this point, I feel pretty much the same about Fields and Lin, based upon pretty much the same reasoning: that while they have significant upside in the long term, they are most likely middling players in the short term who are not worth more than the MLE and easy to replace for anything more than that. Nothing personal.

    83. Z-man

      exel: Wouldn’t this be a point to sign Lin? Knicks are over the salary cap and don’t have the assets to add players who can potentially be a top 10 point guard. Would you rather have Lin filling the 12th roster spot as opposed to say, James White? Lin has shown he can play in the NBA and has a skill set that can be used effectively against playoff-calibre teams, see 4th quarter performance against Philly and Indiana under Woodson after he had been “scouted.”

      That’s a logical point, and had Lin (and/or Fields) been matched, I would not have had a problem with it, it’s Dolan’s $ after all. I also see the logic in NOT matching…do you really want a guy on the end of the bench making more $ and getting more hype than starters and key players (JR, Brewer, Felton)? Do you want to invite a potential PG controversy, exacerbated by a starstruck fanbase and fickle media, to distract your new coach during the most critical year in the last decade? I see the logic in saying no to all that, not to mention overpaying for a guy I don’t believe is worth it.

      Right now, everybody rotation player on the team seems to have a defined role, and the coach can plan around that, starting now. Would that be true if both Felton and Lin were here?

    84. Juany8

      Z-man: That’s a logical point, and had Lin (and/or Fields) been matched, I would not have had a problem with it, it’s Dolan’s $ after all. I also see the logic in NOT matching…do you really want a guy on the end of the bench making more $ and getting more hype than starters and key players (JR, Brewer, Felton)?Do you want to invite a potential PG controversy, exacerbated by a starstruck fanbase and fickle media, to distract your new coach during the most critical year in the last decade? I see the logic in saying no to all that, not to mention overpaying for a guy I don’t believe is worth it.

      Right now, everybody rotation player on the team seems to have a defined role, and the coach can plan around that, starting now. Would that be true if both Felton and Lin were here?

      It’s actually kind of ironic that my view on Lin’s value is close to the same as yours, yet my stance on keeping him is the total opposite. Last year didn’t give us enough information to make a full appraisal of his value, and I saw plenty of things I didn’t particularly like that make me wary of his future. That being said, the guy had some legit skills that aren’t likely to just go away, even if there is a ‘learning curve’ so that he can apply his skills well in any role (and not the “do absolutely everything” role he had in D’Antoni’s system and is likely to have in Houston)

      Matching on Lin was still the right move, however, if the main goal was getting this core closer to a championship. Right now the only player on the team that is a good trade chip is Shumpert (maybe Chandler, but moving him forfeits any chance at contention) Lin was the only other player that had a chance of either seriously improving or being traded for another good piece. That’s a gamble anyone needs to take, although it is Dolan’s money and not mine

    85. knicknyk

      I wish nothing but success for all former Knick players. If you had critiqued Landry applying no perspective like you did for Lin I would have responded with just as much vigour. But nobody was talking about Landry so your questioning is pointless. I guess I am just a different type of fan. I sincerely hope that both Landry and Lin, Gallo, Jarred and even pathetic little Douglas all succeed to be honest. I am not of the mentality that if your no longer a knick you are “dead to me” that some fans have. And once again they did not need to be replaced because we could have had them for nothing. Perspective.

    86. knicknyk

      Now this is what I agree with you on and why I felt it was necessary to not match both offer sheets. Although it would be nice if we had players with greater mental fortitude and maturity and a desire to field the best team possible that eclipsed everything else, although I digress. Lin in particular brought way to many distractions, the NY media clearly could not handle it, the fan base either, and he was to much of a polarizing figure it seems. Clearly there were some locker room issues as well. Houston, the fans media and franchise, has past experience with the “excitement” that he brings in and in a smaller media market to boot. Woodson clearly did not have enough faith in Landry either and if there would be locker room issues for his contract as well it was best that he leave. Plus, Toronto is a young and dynamic team that isn’t in win now mode so I firmly believe that Fields will bounce back somewhat in a new environment and I am definitely rooting for him. The repercussions of both of these decisions are that, this year is the Knicks chance really. The coach everyone wants, no more distractions, full off season full training camp full regular season, the Bulls vulnerable. No more excuses. With or without Landry and Lin I have always had my doubts as to how far this team will go (prediction of second round exit) although I would love to be proven wrong. And yet seeing as how we are in “win now” mode the Knicks have to at minimum make it to ECF or it is a failed season. I do think that these decisions will come back to haunt the knicks in one way or another though.

    87. knicknyk

      ruruland: Nah, Lin’s release is not going to change unless he reforms his shot, which takes hundreds of hours.

      Kidd’s vision and anticipation are supernatural talents that can’t be taught. I think Lin can improve, but he’ll never have Kidd or Nash’s ability.

      Was there not a ESPN sports science video that said that he had a quick release? Also, I am of the belief that with more experience comes better decision making and better decision making improves court vision so for most reasonably talented players that should improve as well.

      Anyway, I am super excited for the NBA to start back up. There are going to be so many narratives and I am just going to miss watching basketball now that the Olympics are over. Sigh.

    88. Z-man

      Juany8: It’s actually kind of ironic that my view on Lin’s value is close to the same as yours…P>Matching on Lin was still the right move, however, if the main goal was getting this core closer to a championship. Right now the only player on the team that is a good trade chip is Shumpert (maybe Chandler, but moving him forfeits any chance at contention) Lin was the only other player that had a chance of either seriously improving or being traded for another good piece. That’s a gamble anyone needs to take, although it is Dolan’s money and not mine

      Melo is a pretty good trade chip, no? ;)

      I have seen too many instances where people wrung their hands at the impossibility of the Knick situation since we signed Amare, Melo and Chandler. Somehow, we were able to sign Novak, JR, Kidd, Felton, Camby and Brewer. Honestly, I don’t get why you feel this way about Lin and not about Fields. Why doesn’t Fields “have a chance of seriously improving or being traded for another good piece? Isn’t he just a more consistent J away from being as good or better than Lin if Lin doesn’t develop? Yet nobody seems to care that we didn’t match him and think matching Lin was a no-brainer. I really don’t get that.

      I truly think that there’s a roughly even chance that we miss Fields more than Lin next year, and that Fields ultimately develops into the better player. Or that Felton and Brewer are both better than Lin and Fields for the next 2 years. By saying an even chance, I’m not committing to either side, but suggesting that since Felton and Brewer are far cheaper, it isn’t an illogical position to move on from Fields and Lin.

    89. Z-man

      knicknyk: Anyway, I am super excited for the NBA to start back up. There are going to be so many narratives and I am just going to miss watching basketball now that the Olympics are over. Sigh.

      On this we can agree! :)

    90. knicknyk

      Lol finally some common ground. Anyway, thanks for the discussion it was definitely very dynamic.

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