Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Apr 06 2013)

  • [New York Daily News] Bondy: Now & Zen, Jackson likes Woodson’s Knicks (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 07:39:18 GMT)
    Phil Jackson was just one of the ’73 champion Knicks joyfully celebrating their 40th anniversary together at the Garden, the same way they shared the basketball on the court. The new Knicks, the ones who played the Bucks on Friday night, play a very different brand of basketball.

  • [New York Daily News] Injured Ware gets Stoudemire assist (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 04:26:52 GMT)
    Kevin Ware will not just be on the Louisville bench for Saturday night’s national semifinal against Wichita State. His image will be all over the Georgia Dome. Knicks forward Amar’e Stoudemire is picking up the tab for 1,000 giant likenesses of Ware’s head that will be distributed to Cardinals students at the game.

  • [New York Daily News] Melo scores 41 as Knicks top Bucks, honor 1972-73 championship team (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 02:10:06 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony rightly dubbed it “a legendary game,â? and he clearly wasn’t just referring to the 40th anniversary celebration the Knicks held Friday night for their 1972-73 championship team.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Heat, Minus Stars, Roll Past Bobcats (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 06:12:52 GMT)
    Mike Miller scored a season-high 26 points on seven 3-pointers, and the injury-depleted Miami Heat beat the host Charlotte Bobcats.

  • [New York Times] Phil Jackson Among 1973 Knicks Honored at Madison Square Garden (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 05:30:21 GMT)
    As the Knicks celebrated the 40th anniversary of their most recent N.B.A. title, among the former players saluted was Phil Jackson, who became a New York rival as a coach.

  • [New York Times] Rockets Defeat Blazers 116-98 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 05:24:58 GMT)
    James Harden had 33 points and the short-handed Houston Rockets edged closer to clinching a playoff spot with a 116-98 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Kobe’s Lakers Hold Off Grizzlies 86-84 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 05:09:54 GMT)
    Kobe Bryant had 24 points and nine assists, Pau Gasol added 19 points, and the Los Angeles Lakers stayed in the final playoff position in the Western Conference with an 86-84 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Curry’s 18 Points, 15 Assists Lead Warriors to Win (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 04:52:09 GMT)
    Stephen Curry scored 18 points and matched his career high with 15 assists, sinking two late free throws to seal Golden State’s 111-107 victory over Phoenix on Friday, extending the Suns’ losing streak to a season-worst eight games.

  • [New York Times] Mavs Beat Kings 117-108 to Snap Two-Game Skid (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 04:42:51 GMT)
    Shawn Marion had 25 points and 12 rebounds, and the Dallas Mavericks snapped a two-game losing streak with a 117-108 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Anthony Scores 41, Knicks Win 11th Straight (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 04:25:19 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony gave fans his own reason to celebrate 40.

  • [New York Times] Thunder Wins 97-75 at Indiana to Tie for West Lead (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 04:13:05 GMT)
    Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook refused to let anyone celebrate at their expense Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Knicks 101, Bucks 83: Knicks Win 11th Straight as Carmelo Anthony Reaches 40 Points Again (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 03:49:34 GMT)
    Carmelo Anthony led the Knicks past the Bucks, becoming the first Knick with 40 points or more in three straight games since Bernard King in 1984.

  • [New York Times] Hayward, Millsap Help Jazz Beat Hornets 95-83 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 03:43:07 GMT)
    Gordon Hayward scored 23 points after a 1-of-8 start and the Utah Jazz beat the New Orleans Hornets 95-83 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Miller, Injury-Depleted Heat Topple Bobcats 89-79 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 02:58:07 GMT)
    Mike Miller scored a season-high 26 points on seven 3-pointers, and the injury-depleted Miami Heat beat the Charlotte Bobcats 89-79 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Robinson, Deng Lead Bulls Over Magic, 87-86 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 02:52:09 GMT)
    Nate Robinson scored 12 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter, Luol Deng finished with 19 after a slow start, and the Chicago Bulls beat the Orlando Magic 87-86 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Gay, Raptors Hold Off Timberwolves 95-93 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 02:49:23 GMT)
    Rudy Gay had 26 points and five rebounds to lead the Toronto Raptors to a rare road victory in the West 95-93 over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Cavs End 10-Game Skid With 97-91 Win at Boston (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 02:31:11 GMT)
    Tristan Thompson had career highs with 29 points and 17 rebounds and the Cleveland Cavaliers ended a 10-game losing streak with a 97-91 victory over the Boston Celtics on Friday.

  • [New York Times] 76ers Start Strong, Beat Hawks 101-90 (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 02:07:12 GMT)
    Evan Turner had 24 points and 11 rebounds, and the Philadelphia 76ers opened with their highest-scoring quarter of the season and beat the Atlanta Hawks 101-90 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Nuggets Without Danilo Gallinari for Rest of Season (Sat, 06 Apr 2013 00:01:37 GMT)
    The Denver Nuggets will be without the versatile forward Danilo Gallinari for the rest of the season after tests showed he tore his left A.C.L. against Dallas on Thursday.

  • 59 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Saturday, Apr 06 2013)

    1. jon abbey

      also that has us with the 4th highest probability in the league to make the Finals, behind Miami, OKC and just behind Indiana.

    2. Hubert Davis

      So much for my theory yesterday that Boston could get the 6 seed.

      Either they are playing possum and saving it for the postseason, or they just suck.

      I still think they think they can take us. But a healthy Knicks team should smoke them in 5 games.

    3. Hubert Davis

      And I wasted so much energy hoping Chicago would climb to 5, now that’s just going to give our second round opponent a nice easy 4 game sweep against Atlanta.

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Man, I feel bad for Gallo. Helping his team to make a run for the top spot in the West and he gets cut down just before the season ends. This means much more Corey Brewer and Wilson Chandler, which likely means an earlier exit for the Knugs.

      Also, Camby’s been playing with plantar fasciitis? I have no idea how guys do that. I just developed it for the first time and the pain is intense and lingering. I put about 1/5 of the weight I usually squat on the bar and my foot felt like it was on fire.

    5. jon abbey

      Hubert Davis:
      So much for my theory yesterday that Boston could get the 6 seed.

      Either they are playing possum and saving it for the postseason, or they just suck.

      they have been playing without Garnett for weeks, last night was without Pierce too. if anyone thinks they’re going to be an easy out, I think they’re crazy.

    6. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Man, I feel bad for Gallo. Helping his team to make a run for the top spot in the West and he gets cut down just before the season ends. This means much more Corey Brewer and Wilson Chandler, which likely means an earlier exit for the Knugs.

      Also, Camby’s been playing with plantar fasciitis? I have no idea how guys do that. I just developed it for the first time and the pain is intense and lingering. I put about 1/5 of the weight I usually squat on the bar and my foot felt like it was on fire.

      Yeah, I always liked Gallo and hope he comes back strong. Seems like ACLs are epidemic these days. I was also a fan of WC, so would like to see him step up.

      As to plantar fasciitis, it is a bitch, but I think every case is different. I had a milder case that I was able to play through resolved well in a few months, but the mornings were extremely painful. Hopefully Camby can play through whatever pain he’s feeling in the playoffs.

    7. lavor postell

      Bernard from all players I’ve watched live or in highlights has always stood out to me as the best iso scorer in league history. If he and Ewing got to team up when king was healthy I highly doubt the bulls first 3 peat happens. Absolute beast and the love he still gets from Knicks fans says a lot about how good he was.

    8. jon abbey

      also about how relatively pitiful the Knicks history has been unfortunately, although Bernard at his peak (all too brief) was indeed incredible.

    9. lavor postell

      jon abbey:
      also about how relatively pitiful the Knicks history has been unfortunately, although Bernard at his peak (all too brief) was indeed incredible.

      Yeah we are forced into being the most nostalgic fans in the league. Though this current team has a certain fuck everybody else mentality which is refreshing to see.

    10. Z-man

      I loved King and his mega-exciting combination of spin moves, quick release, and transition wing dunks. Those couple of years were high times for me and my Knicks fan posse.

      I wouldn’t say he was the greatest iso scorer ever, though. The post-up PF/Cs (Wilt, Kareem, Hakeem, Moses, McHale) and some of the great SF/SGs (Jordan, Bird, Barkley, Gervin, and now LeBron) could iso with anyone. What made King unique is that at 6’6″ he played a 7-footer’s game on the low block, and his quick spins lightning release made blocking his shot nearly impossible to time. So I would say that he was the most exciting dominant low-post scorer ever because of his small size and unique quickness.

    11. Hubert Davis

      jon abbey: they have been playing without Garnett for weeks, last night was without Pierce too. if anyone thinks they’re going to be an easy out, I think they’re crazy.

      I don’t think Pierce & Garnett are that injured, either. They’re locked in to 7, and they’re gearing up for it by resting their big guys.

    12. Hubert Davis

      lavor postell:
      Bernard from all players I’ve watched live or in highlights has always stood out to me as the best iso scorer in league history. If he and Ewing got to team up when king was healthy I highly doubt the bulls first 3 peat happens.Absolute beast and the love he still gets from Knicks fans says a lot about how good he was.

      Funny then, that the idiot who prevented them from teaming up is also getting inducted into the hall of fame.

    13. d-mar

      I was at MSG for game 6 vs. Boston in 1984, and he went off for 44 points on 16-25 from the field in a 2 point victory. The crowd was absolutely nuts.

      Here were some of Bernard’s teammates from that game: Rory Sparrow, Truck Robinson, Ernie Grunfeld, Trent Tucker, Louis Orr. The Celtics? Bird, Parrish, McHale, etc. and they went on to win the title.

      Still in my mind one of the greatest individual performances in NBA playoff history, given the makeup of the 2 teams.

    14. appenb

      > They’re locked in to 7, and they’re gearing up for it by resting their big guys.

      I think it’s pretty clear even if you know nothing about basketball besides what you get watching the Knicks this season (that’s me, basically) that you gotta play your way to basketball shape. Woodson’s not playing Tyson because he thinks Tyson’s fit to play, it’s because Tyson’s not gonna be fit if he doesn’t play.

      The “rest the big guys” story makes a lot more sense to me if minutes go down; not so much if minutes go away.

    15. Hubert Davis

      I had an argument with a younger fan the other day who thought Pitino was a great Knicks coach. I’m afraid many people think the same thing. I, for one, will always remember him as the a**hole who inherited Ewing, Jackson, Bernard, and Oakley…cut Bernard, and decided to run a full court press with the other 3.

      Can you all imagine, btw, if this blog existed in 1989?

      Look at the pace that guy ran at back then:

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1989.html

      Understand that the East and West were essentially different leagues at that time (with the west essentially running and gunning bc they thought it spiked attendance), so I think you have to look at our pace vs the rest of the East to understand just how absurd it was:

      1. Knicks 104.4
      2. Bullets 100.8
      3. Nets 100.1

      I feel like that man ruined the Knicks and wasted a golden opportunity. I’m just curious if anyone else agrees.

    16. Hubert Davis

      appenb:
      > They’re locked in to 7, and they’re gearing up for it by resting their big guys.

      I think it’s pretty clear even if you know nothing about basketball besides what you get watching the Knicks this season (that’s me, basically) that you gotta play your way to basketball shape.Woodson’s not playing Tyson because he thinks Tyson’s fit to play, it’s because Tyson’s not gonna be fit if he doesn’t play.

      The “rest the big guys” story makes a lot more sense to me if minutes go down; not so much if minutes go away.

      True. But if they both got back for the final 5-6 games I think they’d be fine.

    17. BigBlueAL

      Im too young to remember Pitino’s Knicks team (my first memory of the Knicks was their comeback against the Celtics in the 1990 playoffs). But I was always under the impression that him leaving was a pretty big blow that set the franchise back a couple of years and basically wasted a couple of Ewing’s prime years with Stu Jackson and John Macleod coaching the Knicks.

      Pitino was the first coach in the NBA to embrace the 3pt shot and recognize its value. He made the playoffs in his only 2 seasons as Knicks coach and his 2nd season (the afforemention 1988-89 Knicks) they won 52 games and swept Barkley’s 76ers in the 1st round before being upset by Michael Jordan in the 2nd round. They were 6th in offense and 10th in defense so thats pretty good and they were a very young team who were actually very well suited to play a high tempo system from what I can tell.

      He didnt inherit Oakley, his 1st season Cartwright was still with the Knicks. They traded him for Oak before Pitino’s 2nd season. Ive heard Mark Jackson say Pitino is the best coach he has ever played for and Ewing also has always spoken very highly of Pitino.

      But again I wasnt old enough to remember those years so Im sure there are alot others here who can speak better about Pitino’s Knicks years but again I always thought that Pitino quitting was a pretty big blow to the franchise that wasnt rectified until Riley was hired 2 years later.

    18. jon abbey

      appenb:
      >

      The “rest the big guys” story makes a lot more sense to me if minutes go down; not so much if minutes go away.

      so you think LeBron and Wade are really hurt too, huh?

      what’s funny/a bit strange is that these teams are just calling the NBA on the season being too damn long, and Stern isn’t doing anything about it. ticket prices aren’t dropping without all of these stars, those buyers are just screwed.

    19. jon abbey

      heh, Forbes used Dave Berri numbers to determine who was the most overpaid. for those not paying attention, those numbers still have Ronnie Brewer contributing more to this season than Melo.

    20. max fisher-cohen

      @jon

      They’ve played the last 3 weeks I think better than anyone would have predicted, myself included. Still, you’re looking at playoff odds, not power rankings, where NY is still sitting at 8th overall. Their playoff odds are better because the East sucks.

      You’ll note too that the major change Woodson made was using Prigioni more, which is exactly what I hoped Woodson would do. Prigioni’s net rating in the streak continues to be tops on the team despite getting about 6 more MPG compared to February.

      Shumpert has played a ton better but he’s still the worst rotation player on the team. He’s gone from terrible to pretty good much more quickly than I thought would be the case. I still think that when Stoudemire comes back, New York is better off moving him to play in the second unit. Smith’s game is just a much better complement to Anthony’s.

      Anyway, I just wrote a lot of words, but I’m not sure why. Is there a specific point to which I can reply? I’m really not sure that we disagree on much if anything.

    21. jon abbey

      max fisher-cohen:
      Still, you’re looking at playoff odds, not power rankings, where NY is still sitting at 8th overall. Their playoff odds are better because the East sucks.

      right, but they’re in the East, that’s not going to change. it doesn’t matter if every team in the West is better than them, they still only have to beat one to win a title.

      they’re pretty close to the teams ahead of them in the Power Rankings too, a win tomorrow in OKC (not that I expect that) would almost certainly vault them up a few spots there also.

    22. danvt

      jon abbey: a win tomorrow in OKC (not that I expect that) would almost certainly vault them up a few spots there also.

      I bet Durant rests, Knicks win, get 50, the Atlantic division, then they can start thinking about resting people.

    23. ephus

      Bernard King was the greatest Knick of my basketball fandom, at least for peak value. I started following the team in 1977, so I missed the Reed/Clyde/Bradley/Monroe/DeBusschere championship teams. As great as Ewing was, he never had a season like Bernard’s 1983-84. BK played with an offensive ferocity that could not be contained, even when the Knicks were playing horribly.

      Bernard should have been inducted a decade ago. I am going to get to Springfield to watch this happen. Meetup, anyone?

    24. thenoblefacehumper

      jon abbey:
      heh, Forbes used Dave Berri numbers to determine who was the most overpaid. for those not paying attention, those numbers still have Ronnie Brewer contributing more to this season than Melo.

      I agree that Berri’s numbers are flawed drastically and I pay no attention to them, but I don’t like going about the argument this way. If you told the casual baseball fan that Ben Zobrist was more valuable than Josh Hamilton last year they’d think it was (almost) as crazy as Brewer>Melo. Having said that, Ronnie Brewer kind of sucks and Melo is awesome. I’m younger than most of the posters here, but I haven’t seen many runs like this, even of just 3 games.

    25. jon abbey

      thenoblefacehumper: I agree that Berri’s numbers are flawed drastically and I pay no attention to them, but I don’t like going about the argument this way. If you told the casual baseball fan that Ben Zobrist was more valuable than Josh Hamilton last year they’d think it was (almost) as crazy as Brewer>Melo. Having said that, Ronnie Brewer kind of sucks and Melo is awesome. I’m younger than most of the posters here, but I haven’t seen many runs like this, even of just 3 games.

      there are a thousand different ways to go about the argument, Berri’s numbers are so misguided so often that they are worthless, and to base a ‘value’ article on that then just shows why Forbes peaked as a news organization a few generations back.

      Brewer has played a total of 54 minutes since going to OKC 22 games ago, by the way. do they not know he’s better than Melo? :)

    26. BigBlueAL

      ephus:
      Bernard King was the greatest Knick of my basketball fandom, at least for peak value.I started following the team in 1977, so I missed the Reed/Clyde/Bradley/Monroe/DeBusschere championship teams.As great as Ewing was, he never had a season like Bernard’s 1983-84.BK played with an offensive ferocity that could not be contained, even when the Knicks were playing horribly.

      Bernard should have been inducted a decade ago.I am going to get to Springfield to watch this happen.Meetup, anyone?

      Ewing’s 1989-90 season was pretty amazing and he had a pretty good playoff run that season too.

      But yeah his value was more in just being great every year, remarkably consistent from 1989-97. Also obviously his value was just as good if not greater at the defensive end.

    27. thenoblefacehumper

      jon abbey: there are a thousand different ways to go about the argument, Berri’s numbers are so misguided so often that they are worthless, and to base a ‘value’ article on that then just shows why Forbes peaked as a news organization a few generations back.

      Brewer has played a total of 54 minutes since going to OKC 22 games ago, by the way. do they not know he’s better than Melo? :)

      I suppose you could make the argument that it’s not really worth dissecting a system that says we’d be better off with Thabo Sefolosha and Ronnie Brewer over Earl the Pipemaster and ‘Melo. Still, the fact that it says these things shouldn’t discredit it right off the bat. However, I would like to hear from THCJ or any other Berri person; do you honestly believe, as someone who has watched this team in it’s present incarnation, that we would be better if Ronnie Brewer had all of ‘Melo’s minutes?

    28. d-mar

      The way the standings look right now, with the Knicks 2 games up on Indy and Boston 2 games up on Atlanta, if Doc really wants us, he should rest Pierce, Garnett, Green and Bradley the rest of the season to make sure they don’t accidentally move up to the 6 seed.

    29. ruruland

      d-mar:
      The way the standings look right now, with the Knicks 2 games up on Indy and Boston 2 games up on Atlanta, if Doc really wants us, he should rest Pierce, Garnett, Green and Bradley the rest of the season to make sure they don’t accidentally move up to the 6 seed.

      Can’t be sure the Knicks won’t slip to third. I don’t buy anyone tanking right now.

      Why would a team tank for a first round opponent when it ensures facing Miami in the second?

      Boston is resting their old guys because that’s the one shot they have in the postseason.

      Indiana lost to OKC and then a much improved Wizards team. They may have peaked early, imo.

    30. johnlocke

      This. The Pacers are not scared of the Celtics. Paul George has just played like crap the last two games. They have a well balanced team, but I’m not convinced that George is a superstar just yet, they will miss Granger. Durant v Melo should be epic tomm. If the Knicks somehow win (doubtful) I really don’t see how they don’t lock up that 2 seed the rest of the way and get home court in the 2nd round.

      ruruland: Can’t be sure the Knicks won’t slip to third. I don’t buy anyone tanking right now.

      Why would a team tank for a first round opponent when it ensures facing Miami in the second?

      Boston is resting their old guys because that’s the one shot they have in the postseason.

      Indiana lost to OKC and then a much improved Wizards team. They may have peaked early, imo.

    31. ruruland

      thenoblefacehumper: I suppose you could make the argument that it’s not really worth dissecting a system that says we’d be better off with Thabo Sefolosha and Ronnie Brewer over Earl the Pipemaster and ‘Melo. Still, the fact that it says these things shouldn’t discredit it right off the bat. However, I would like to hear from THCJ or any other Berri person; do you honestly believe, as someone who has watched this team in it’s present incarnation, that we would be better if Ronnie Brewer had all of ‘Melo’s minutes?

      They never have nor ever will comment on that in this space. I’ve asked countless times if Jowles thinks Brewer is a vastly superior player to Melo as WP says he is.

      Owen and Jowles:
      Forgot to post this new 2013 study by Duke, Northwestern, British Columbia that measures interaction effects and defensive attention.

      It found that Carmelo Anthony is a top 5 offensive player

      http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1861192

      A few good reads below, there are plenty more:

      “”In general, for every 1% that a lineup has to increase its usage, its efficiency decreases by 0.25 points per 100 possessions, and vice versa,” Witus concluded, further adding, “For each 1% a player increases his usage, his efficiency drops by 1.25 points per 100 possessions.”

      http://hoopdon.weebly.com/1/post/2013/02/overrated-low-usage-players.html

      http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/2010-11-nba-rebounding-correlations.html

      http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=8008&p=13351

      http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2012/10/jose-calderon-example-of-how-wins.html

      http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/03/06/diminishing-returns-for-scoring-usage-vs-efficiency/

    32. ruruland

      thenoblefacehumper: I suppose you could make the argument that it’s not really worth dissecting a system that says we’d be better off with Thabo Sefolosha and Ronnie Brewer over Earl the Pipemaster and ‘Melo. Still, the fact that it says these things shouldn’t discredit it right off the bat. However, I would like to hear from THCJ or any other Berri person; do you honestly believe, as someone who has watched this team in it’s present incarnation, that we would be better if Ronnie Brewer had all of ‘Melo’s minutes?

      WP is a junk statistic. There is the Berri-cult, and everyone else. Everyone else is getting a lot bigger and more advanced. In a few years, WP will be the batting average of basketball metrics.

      It doesn’t like Melo because he plays power forward and has a low rebound rate. Somehow, with a below average rebounding power forward, the Knicks rebound the ball much better with Melo in the game.

      In fact, Melo has the second highest positive rebound differential on the team — higher than Kidd, Smith, Camby.

      Two, the Knicks rebound the ball much worse with the great rebounder Ronnie Brewer, who for some reason was given the distinction of small forward despite being guarded by power forwards. Naturally, WP gave Melo the power forward distinction, likely because of its bias against high usage players.

      Brewer has the third worst rebounding differential on the team.

      What does basic observation tell us?

      Carmelo Anthony generally does a very good job of blocking out power forwards and not allowing them to get rebounds — opening the way for the guards to come down and board.

      He is like a fullback who opens up the holes for his running backs.

      Melo doesn’t get credit for faceguarding/blocking out opponents and keeping them off the board.

    33. ruruland

      Melo has that role because he is undersized for a power forward. His rebound rate the last four years has been higher as a small forward (and very good for a small forward) when he was able to swoop in without boxing out bigger players.

      Melo has actually had a bigger impact on rebounding this year than ever before. I think he blocks out more effectively than Tyson Chandler, at least on defense (Chandler blocks out way better on offense). Chandler also benefits from Melo’s lead blocking.

    34. ruruland

      To clarify, that 2013 study showed Melo to be the top offensive player in the NBA in two of three metrics that accounted for defense and teammates, net production/efficiency in 2009/10.

    35. Juany8

      Are we still discussing WP? Does anyone think it’s Matt Barnes, Ronnie Brewer, and Sefalosha who are the superstars, or is it Melo, Kobe, and Westbrook? It’s really humorous that their predictions are stunningly awful every year and yet they see no problem with their statistic. Literally the only thing that matters is how well the stat predicts the future, linear correlations based on silly data like the box score can’t conclusively prove anything. Ever. So the only reason to parrot around WP is if you actually believe that it’s better to build around Landry Fields (.154 WP48 this season, down from .172 in his second season and his top 10 player rookie season) than Carmelo Anthony. Good luck convincing NBA teams to take you seriously though.

    36. jon abbey

      which is well timed the same week that Melo probably had the single best three regular season game streak of any Knick ever.

      if it hasn’t been posted yet, the last NBA player to score 40+ on 60%+ shooting for three straight games was Jordan. Kobe hasn’t done it, Durant hasn’t done it, LeBron hasn’t done it, etc.

      and all of Melo’s were wins against playoff teams with his team fighting for the potential second round home court advantage at 2/3.

      WP wildly overvalues individual rebounding and FG efficiency, undervaluing usage and ability to create space for teammates on offense.

    37. ruruland

      Juany8:
      Are we still discussing WP? Does anyone think it’s Matt Barnes, Ronnie Brewer, and Sefalosha who are the superstars, or is it Melo, Kobe, and Westbrook? It’s really humorous that their predictions are stunningly awful every year and yet they see no problem with their statistic. Literally the only thing that matters is how well the stat predicts the future, linear correlations based on silly data like the box score can’t conclusively prove anything. Ever. So the only reason to parrot around WP is if you actually believe that it’s better to build around Landry Fields (.154 WP48 this season, down from .172 in his second season and his top 10 player rookie season) than Carmelo Anthony. Good luck convincing NBA teams to take you seriously though.

      Most of the new studies are refuting WP/Berri underlying assumptions.

      I’m not sure why there are people who still hold on to that metric anymore.

    38. Juany8

      jon abbey:
      I brought up WP again because Forbes hilariously used Berri-babble to determine their most overpaid players in the league list:

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1594153-carmelo-anthony-wins-top-honors-on-forbes-list-of-nbas-most-overpaid-players

      Haha fair enough, it is pretty easy to make fun of…

      I loved that article about offensive player production Ruru. One of my favorite lines came early on: “the data do not record unsuccessful player attempts to accumulate individual statistics, like assists, rebounds, steals, blocks.”

      I’ve been mentioning this for a while, giving players credit for steals but ignoring the failed steal attempts is like giving players credit for making baskets and just ignoring all the missed shots. I don’t see why making a pass to a guy in the corner for 3 gets you credit if your teammate made the shot but nothing if he missed. The passer did nothing different, yet is getting different results. The good teams don’t go for offensive rebounds because if they fail they won’t be able to get set on defense.

      All the linear box score statistics (PER, WS, WP) decry the use of points per minute when evaluating scoring, and then use the equivalent per minute stat to evaluate rebounding, passing, and defense (kind-of-sort-of on defense lol)

    39. ruruland

      Haha, absolutely, there are so many things the box score misses and does not properly credit for….and there are so many ways in which the box score does not pick up value or distribute credit.

      WP is a team stat used to measure individuals. It is not an individual stat that measures individuals impact to the team.

      You should check out that apbr thread.

    40. ephus

      jon abbey:
      which is well timed the same week that Melo probably had the single best three regular season game streak of any Knick ever.

      if it hasn’t been posted yet, the last NBA player to score 40+ on 60%+ shooting for three straight games was Jordan. Kobe hasn’t done it, Durant hasn’t done it, LeBron hasn’t done it, etc.

      and all of Melo’s were wins against playoff teams with his team fighting for the potential second round home court advantage at 2/3.

      WP wildly overvalues individual rebounding and FG efficiency, undervaluing usage and ability to create space for teammates on offense.

      As good as this streak is, to my mind it still does not match Bernard’s Texas road trip in 1984. 50 followed by 50 followed by 25 with incredible efficiency. You mileage may vary.

    41. jon abbey

      ephus: As good as this streak is, to my mind it still does not match Bernard’s Texas road trip in 1984. 50 followed by 50 followed by 25 with incredible efficiency. You mileage may vary.

      that was impressive, but keep in mind that those teams were 37-45, 43-39, and 29-53 respectively. efficiency was almost identical to Melo’s, 51-78 to Melo’s 52-81.

    42. Zanzibar

      Juany8:
      It’s really humorous that their predictions are stunningly awful every year and yet they see no problem with their statistic. Literally the only thing that matters is how well the stat predicts the future, linear correlations based on silly data like the box score can’t conclusively prove anything. Ever. So the only reason to parrot around WP is if you actually believe that it’s better to build around Landry Fields (.154 WP48 this season, down from .172 in his second season and his top 10 player rookie season) than Carmelo Anthony.

      Let me take you down, ’cause i’m going to landry fields.
      Nothing is real and nothing to get hungabout.
      landry fields forever.
      Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see.
      It’s getting hard to be someone but it all works out, it doesn’t matter much to me.
      Let me take you down, ’cause i’m going to strawberry fields.
      Nothing is real and nothing to get hungabout.
      Strawberry fields forever.

    43. Juany8

      Zanzibar: Let me take you down, ’cause i’m going to landry fields.
      Nothing is real and nothing to get hungabout.
      landry fields forever.
      Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see.
      It’s getting hard to be someone but it all works out, it doesn’t matter much to me.
      Let me take you down, ’cause i’m going to strawberry fields.
      Nothing is real and nothing to get hungabout.
      Strawberry fields forever.

      You know what I take back everything I said, this was fucking beautiful and totally made my day. Keep up the excellent work.

    44. KnickfaninNJ

      I think someone above asked for memories of Bernard King and Pitino,

      Bernard is one of my favorite Knicks, not so much because of his scoring ability, but because of his mental resolve after he blew out his knee. It took him something like a year and a half to return. During that time, he didn’t work out with the team and the press was very hard on him. They thought he must be through or not working hard or something. But he showed them up by coming back only when he thought he was ready, and that turned out to mean just as good as he was before, which was spectacularly good.

      I remember Pitino being a reasonable but unusual coach. Not only did he have his teams press a lot, but he basically used two five man units. That is, instead of resting his stars in some sort of rotation so some of them were always on the court, he rested the entire first team all at once and brought in a second team that was fresh and continued to press all the time. The second unit kind of had its own identity and was proud of it. The system worked pretty well. It may be a system that was only good for that particular team, but I am surprised that no one seems to have ever tried that since. Instead now we get coaches like d’Antoni, who want a short rotation and play their best players too many minutes and get too many injuries (this is my general impression)

    45. Juany8

      ruruland:
      Pretending not to understand the argument, going in circles with himself:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaX1plJzaPM

      He’s still trying to argue against the silly strawman that everyone evaluates players based on points per game except the geniuses at WP. They somehow manage to convince themselves that because casual fans and really stupid front offices are terrible at analyzing basketball, they know better than everyone, and have discovered the truth of basketball.

      Here’s an easy way to tell if someone is willing to be intellectually honest in his argument. Ask them what evidence it would take to prove them wrong, regardless of whether or no the proof exists. For example, I believe if I drop a pen, it will fall and hit the ground every time, due to the forces of gravity. I am quite certain of this conclusion, and believe I could drop a pen thousands of times and achieve the same results. However, I will admit I am wrong if I let the pen go and it suddenly starts floating upwards, and this happens repeatedly with multiple different pens and dropping locations.

      That’s a bit of a silly example, but the point is that if you refuse to believe that you can be proven wrong, you are not involved in an intelligent discussion, you are involved in a yelling and name calling match. Even obvious scientific laws are disprovable, it just so happens that no one ever manages to find proof against them, regardless of how hard they try. So the question becomes, is there any evidence out there that would convince the WP crowd that their model is fundamentally wrong? It doesn’t mean anyone will be able to find the proof, as I explained, but if you refuse to believe that anything would ever prove it wrong, then WP says as much about basketball players as their horoscopes.

    46. d-mar

      ruruland: Can’t be sure the Knicks won’t slip to third. I don’t buy anyone tanking right now.

      Why would a team tank for a first round opponent when it ensures facing Miami in the second?

      Boston is resting their old guys because that’s the one shot they have in the postseason.

      Indiana lost to OKC and then a much improved Wizards team. They may have peaked early, imo.

      Boston at 6 or 7 still doesn’t face Miami in the 2nd round.

    47. KnickfaninNJ

      d-mar: Boston at 6 or 7 still doesn’t face Miami in the 2nd round.

      Yes, but even assuming they could tank, they basically are going to play the Knicks or the Pacers if they are in sixth or seventh and probably can’t tell which one it will be. I am not sure they see much difference in quality of opposition or winnability between the Knicks and Pacers. I think it’s much more likely they will just try to manage their health and get key players just enough playing time to be sharp in the playoffs.

    48. ruruland

      Nice post, Juany. If you go to abpr and search wp you’ll find a few threads about how some of the statisticians on their site have found just as strong or stronger correlations to wins than WP using other box score stats. So, I don’t know if it’s been disproven as much as shown to have the same value as a few generic box score stats.

      Also, Boston can’t afford to simply tank, guys. The Bucks are just two games back and can slide into seventh. Boston is not tanking for Miami as much confidence as they have against them.

      Either Boston plays it perfectly, or well be playing the Bucks or Hawks in round one.

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