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Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Monday, Sep 02 2013)

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Shock Deliver Blow to Liberty’s Playoff Hopes (Mon, 02 Sep 2013 03:20:14 GMT)
    Riquana Williams scored 22 points and made two crucial free throws with 21.1 seconds left, as the host Tulsa Shock put a dent in the Liberty’s playoff hopes with a 93-88 victory.    

  • 29 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Monday, Sep 02 2013)

    1. Z-man

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1756499-why-carmelo-anthony-andrea-bargnani-partnership-will-work-for-ny-knicks

      While linking articles from the Bleacher Report is not a way to make friends around here, there is hardly anything Knicks out there and I’m desperate. This one make the case that Bargnani should start and Melo should be moved back to SF. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea.

      Starters: Felton, Shump, Melo, Bargnani, Chandler

      Bench: Prigioni/Beno, JR/TH2, MWP, Amare, KMart/Tyler

      We have loads of injury concerns that suggest minutes should be limited during the regular season, so I can see all of these players getting enough PT. By playoff time, roles and effectiveness will be better established and injuries will cull the lineup down.

      If/when Bargnani is ineffective as a starter, bump MWP into the starting lineup and move Melo to the 4. Give Shump a quick hook if more scoring is needed, replacing him with JR (if healthy) or Beno. Rotate in Amare, Bargnani and KMart (keeping in mind that Amare and KMart should both have lots of nights off and have minutes restricted.)

    2. Z-man

      I think someone (ruru?) had brought up how much of a positive impact Rasheed Wallace had in the 17 games in which he played more than 10 minutes (we went 13-4.) If Bargnani could play a similar role with this team, he might have a similar impact. Looking at Bargnani’s stats from his 24yo season (when Bosh was the highest usage player and primary option; any stats after that were form when Bargs was the primary option and/or injured.)

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=bargnan01&y1=2010&p2=wallara01&y2=2013

      The glaring differences are: Wallace grabbing 4 more Drebs per 36 and shooting 4 more 3′s per 36 at a much lower %. But there is a lot of overlap, suggesting that Bargnani might be a very good fit for this team.

    3. SeeWhyDee77

      Z-man: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1756499-why-carmelo-anthony-andrea-bargnani-partnership-will-work-for-ny-knicks

      While linking articles from the Bleacher Report is not a way to make friends around here, there is hardly anything Knicks out there and I’m desperate. This one make the case that Bargnani should start and Melo should be moved back to SF. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea.

      Starters: Felton, Shump, Melo, Bargnani, Chandler

      Bench: Prigioni/Beno, JR/TH2, MWP, Amare, KMart/Tyler

      We have loads of injury concerns that suggest minutes should be limited during the regular season, so I can see all of these players getting enough PT. By playoff time, roles and effectiveness will be better established and injuries will cull the lineup down.

      If/when Bargnani is ineffective as a starter, bump MWP into the starting lineup and move Melo to the 4. Give Shump a quick hook if more scoring is needed, replacing him with JR (if healthy) or Beno. Rotate in Amare, Bargnani and KMart (keeping in mind that Amare and KMart should both have lots of nights off and have minutes restricted.)

      Pretty much my expectation. I was beginning to think I was stark raving mad for seeing what Bargnani can do on this roster. Starting him doesn’t hurt the team as much as everyone thinks. Sure, he’s not Tyson-esque and Melo isn’t Pippen defensively. But having those 2 as the starting forwards gives us the balance that Melo hasn’t had as a Knick. The only real question is if Bargnani is healthy enough to regain his form. If it works and guys stay healthy we have a better shot than we did last season of makin it to the ECF and maybe even the Finals. Yes..I’ll take orange kool aid in a blue cup…

    4. dtrickey

      As much as I would like to see STAT starting, I think that’s an interesting proposition starting AB at the 4. I think I mores so like the idea of having two 7 footers on the court, when one can stretch the D and one stay at home. A part of me wants STAT to start (maybe for nothing more than sentimentality) but having AB start potentially makes better sense from an offensive point of view.

      I would really love to see Woodson throw out some unconventional lineups in the early games of the pre-season, just for shits and giggles before settling the rotation.

      On another note, what are peoples thoughts on potentially picking up Melo (the Fab one) seeing as he’s been waived? He’s still pretty raw, and at this stage is an end of the bench guy, but NY could be a good environment for him (i.e. Chandler and STAT as a mentors). Showed a lot of potential at Syracuse and could develop into a decent defender. I think he had a triple-double in the D-League with 14 blocks or something ridiculous like that. I think there’s work ethic issues that need to be addressed, but the veterean presence would be good for him. I’m not sure what he’s worth off waivers, but I would imagine we would have to wait for him to clear.

    5. max fisher-cohen

      Wallace’s contribution was on the defensive end. If you just look at the period of the season when Wallace was healthy, here’s what you get:

      Wallace O-Rating: 102.0 (11th on the team)
      Wallace D-Rating: 97.3 (4th on the team while playing more minutes than any of those above him)

      If you think Bargnani will be good enough to play 20+ mins next year, then you probably want to start him. I agree with that. That gives him more minutes with our best rebounder, Chandler, along with two guys who will be strong rebounders for their positions in SF Melo and SG Shumpert. You probably start Felton with that lineup too since his penetration fits better with Shumpert than JR.

    6. SeeWhyDee77

      dtrickey:

      On another note, what are peoples thoughts on potentially picking up Melo (the Fab one) seeing as he’s been waived? He’s still pretty raw, and at this stage is an end of the bench guy, but NY could be a good environment for him (i.e. Chandler and STAT as a mentors). Showed a lot of potential at Syracuse and could develop into a decent defender. I think he had a triple-double in the D-League with 14 blocks or something ridiculous like that. I think there’s work ethic issues that need to be addressed, but the veterean presence would be good for him. I’m not sure what he’s worth off waivers, but I would imagine we would have to wait for him to clear.

      Fab Melo would be a nice choice to develop at the end of the bench behind Chandler, STAT, Kmart and Bargnani. He’s young and there is no doubt we could get him on the cheap. He would probably be more comfortable as a Knick than he was in Boston or would have been in Memphis. He’s got the Syracuse connection with Melo and Boheim in the same state. He’s Brazilian so we’ve got foreign guys he could kinda relate to as well. Prigioni, even though he’s Argentinian, may relate to him better than others. And he’s already got defensive chops so Tyson is as good a choice as anyone on the roster to take him under his wing. He moves better than Haddadi so if we’re lookin for size to bang against the formidable bigs in the East, he’s a good choice there too. I think both Haddadi and Fab Melo are both good choices for an end of bench defensive big. But if I had my druthers, I’d strongly consider Fab because he’s younger and more mobile. Probably can’t go wrong either way tho.

    7. Z-man

      Well, Woodson is on record saying that Melo, Felton and Chandler are starters. So it’s more a matter of filling in the last two spots. I’d be surprised if Shump did not start, so it comes down to filling the last spot with either Bargnani or MWP. It seems that Bargs makes the best choice. Any other choice seems to muck up the rotation.

      One big question on offense is: will Bargnani be good enough vs. SFs to pull the opposing PF off of Melo? If he can, then the next question is: Can Melo be an effective ball-handler in a high P&R with Chandler? It’s bound to be a more effective play if the opposing PF is not in the mix.

    8. Z-man

      SeeWhyDee77: Fab Melo would be a nice choice to develop at the end of the bench behind Chandler, STAT, Kmart and Bargnani. He’s young and there is no doubt we could get him on the cheap. He would probably be more comfortable as a Knick than he was in Boston or would have been in Memphis. He’s got the Syracuse connection with Melo and Boheim in the same state. He’s Brazilian so we’ve got foreign guys he could kinda relate to as well. Prigioni, even though he’s Argentinian, may relate to him better than others. And he’s already got defensive chops so Tyson is as good a choice as anyone on the roster to take him under his wing. He moves better than Haddadi so if we’re lookin for size to bang against the formidable bigs in the East, he’s a good choice there too. I think both Haddadi and Fab Melo are both good choices for an end of bench defensive big. But if I had my druthers, I’d strongly consider Fab because he’s younger and more mobile. Probably can’t go wrong either way tho.

      I dunno, just watched a Fab Melo mix from Syracuse and he looked absolutely terrible. Certainly no better than Jerome Jordan.

    9. ess-dog

      And then there’s this article:
      http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/229656/How-The-Andrea-Bargnani-Trade-Compounds-New-Yorks-Biggest-Problem

      I just can’t imagine Bargs beating out MWP for the starting spot in nyc on a Woodson team, but if it happens, hey, cool.

      I’m almost more apt to just giving Bargs the back up center minutes. He can’t be that bad against scrub centers, and we have plenty of other power forwards: Amare, Kmart, MWP, and Melo.

      I think a Felton/JR/MWP/Melo/Tyson lineup would be crazy good (emphasis on crazy.) Plus you still have plenty of scorers on the bench.

    10. nicos

      SeeWhyDee77: Fab Melo would be a nice choice to develop at the end of the bench behind Chandler, STAT, Kmart and Bargnani. He’s young and there is no doubt we could get him on the cheap. He would probably be more comfortable as a Knick than he was in Boston or would have been in Memphis. He’s got the Syracuse connection with Melo and Boheim in the same state. He’s Brazilian so we’ve got foreign guys he could kinda relate to as well. Prigioni, even though he’s Argentinian, may relate to him better than others. And he’s already got defensive chops so Tyson is as good a choice as anyone on the roster to take him under his wing. He moves better than Haddadi so if we’re lookin for size to bang against the formidable bigs in the East, he’s a good choice there too. I think both Haddadi and Fab Melo are both good choices for an end of bench defensive big. But if I had my druthers, I’d strongly consider Fab because he’s younger and more mobile. Probably can’t go wrong either way tho.

      I think Jeremy Tyler already has the end of the bench development guy slot filled- my guess is that if they’re going to add another big it’ll be someone they think can play 8-10 minutes right now.

    11. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      “We play basketball, not reboundball.”

      Any guesses on who said this, verbatim?

      (Hint: it is a 7’0″ PF/C who posters on this board are advocating as a starter on a team that aspires for the ECF.)

    12. nicos

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      “We play basketball, not reboundball.”

      Any guesses on who said this, verbatim?

      (Hint: it is a 7’0? PF/C who posters on this board are advocating as a starter on a team that aspires for the ECF.)

      His career rebound rate is 9.4- about the same JR’s last year whose place he’d be taking in the starting lineup. My guess is the Knicks would continue to be a solid defensive/poor offensive rebounding team just like last year even if Bargnani plays 20 minutes a night. Of course you’d like to improve rather than tread water and unless AB regains his shooting stroke they probably won’t even be treading water.

    13. Brian Cronin

      I just can’t imagine Bargs beating out MWP for the starting spot in nyc on a Woodson team, but if it happens, hey, cool.

      I’m almost more apt to just giving Bargs the back up center minutes. He can’t be that bad against scrub centers, and we have plenty of other power forwards: Amare, Kmart, MWP, and Melo.

      I’m inclined to think this, as well. MWP for the other forward spot and Bargs for back-up center minutes (once he proves he can hit the outside jumper at a good rate, of course).

    14. SeeWhyDee77

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: “We play basketball, not reboundball.”

      Any guesses on who said this, verbatim?

      (Hint: it is a 7’0? PF/C who posters on this board are advocating as a starter on a team that aspires for the ECF.)

      Ha! Nice one. But I still think Bargnani will be better as a Knick as long as he’s healthy. The pieces are in place for him to be able to play really well. I don’t think he’s a great player by any stretch, but I do think he’s good enough to nail down that second threat role while on the floor with Chandler and Melo. Especially with the threat of a Melo/Chandler PnR or a Felton/Chandler PnR. He probably can help deter guard penetration on tandem with Chandler. Not sayin anyone’s afraid of him, but 2 7 footers does look more imposing than Chandler and Melo. If he can give us a block per game out there, that’s an improvement.

    15. nicos

      Brian Cronin: I’m inclined to think this, as well. MWP for the other forward spot and Bargs for back-up center minutes (once he proves he can hit the outside jumper at a good rate, of course).

      I do think the Knicks got AB with intention of starting him but now that MWP fell into their laps I’d say it’s 60/40 Metta starts. I think the only way AB starts is if he shoots the lights out from three during camp. For what it’s worth MWP is an awful rebounder as well so boards are still going to be an issue.

    16. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      “We play basketball, not reboundball.”

      Any guesses on who said this, verbatim?

      (Hint: it is a 7’0? PF/C who posters on this board are advocating as a starter on a team that aspires for the ECF.)

      Yeah it was a dumb thing to say. Doesn’t mean that he’ll be a bust on this team. Remember when I posted a BR search about low-rebounding 6’10+” guys who shot lots of 3′s, and names like Rashard Lewis (in his best years), Turkoglu (in his best years) and Gallo repeatedly came up? Why are you so sure that Bargnani can’t play that type of role for the Knicks?

      And I’ll repeat, his low WS48 relative to others on this list is NOT due to his rebounding. He actually was one of the better rebounders in the group.

      If he shoots to a .570+ TS%, only the most diehard WP advocates will give a hoot about his rebounding. He will surely rebound better than Novak and Copeland, and defend PFs and Cs better. It will all be about his shooting. As MFC suggested in @5, having decent rebounders at the other positions will balance things out, IF he shoots well. The question is, will having a complementary role help lift his TS%? If it doesn’t, then he will suck for this team even if he bumps his rebounding up to 8 per 36.

    17. Jack Bauer

      “Reboundball”, that’s awesome.

      Bargs will be better than Novak and Copeland all around, that is the bottom line.

    18. massive

      Well, we all know JR Smith won’t be starting so it’s kinda foolish to name him when we’re talking about starting line ups. My personal favorite line up is the Felton/Shumpert/Melo/Bargnani/Chandler line up. The reason I like this line up is because I like Bargs as a one on one defender against 4s, and placing him next to one of the league’s best spatial defenders in Chandler gives us some really good balance on that end. Felton/Shump work great on both ends, and you still maintain the 1 in 4 out principles that make this offense so good. I can see the argument for starting MWP next too Melo, but moving Melo to the 4 means he has to bang with 4s on the defensive end. This leads to Chris Kaman uppercuts and KG labrum tears. This team’s #1 priority is to keep Melo healthy, and starting Melo with Bargs, to me, helps us achieve that goal. I also like the idea of keeping Ron with JR, but that’s probably just my cynicism.

      Another thing of note is where we play basketball. The Eastern Conference features these frontcourts:

      Boozer/Noah
      KG/Lopez
      West/Hibbert
      Varejao/Bynum
      (potentially) Bosh/Oden

      We need size more than we need excellent perimeter defense. Let Shump lock up the other team’s best guard/wing and just worry about packing the paint with large men.

    19. er

      Z-man:
      I think someone (ruru?) had brought up how much of a positive impact Rasheed Wallace had in the 17 games in which he played more than 10 minutes (we went 13-4.) If Bargnani could play a similar role with this team, he might have a similar impact. Looking at Bargnani’s stats from his 24yo season (when Bosh was the highest usage player and primary option; any stats after that were form when Bargs was the primary option and/or injured.)

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=bargnan01&y1=2010&p2=wallara01&y2=2013

      The glaring differences are: Wallace grabbing 4 more Drebs per 36 and shooting 4 more 3?s per 36 at a much lower %. But there is a lot of overlap, suggesting that Bargnani might be a very good fit for this team.

      I think you may be thinking about when i ardently advocated for the AB starting at the 4 on d and 3 on offense. It just makes sense to me. If Bargs is anywhere decent, the matchup nightmares are def in our favor. Take the Bulls for example, what do they do defensively? They are a team that usually gives melo fits(not counting the Easter miracle a few years back.) They simply pack the paint. Do they have Boozer/Gibson on the perimeter with Barg? Play Zone? A true stretch 4 creates numerous lanes. Melo is not a stretch 4 because hes only 6’8 but when you have to match up with a 7 footer that can be a problem

    20. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Z-man: Yeah it was a dumb thing to say. Doesn’t mean that he’ll be a bust on this team. Remember when I posted a BR search about low-rebounding 6’10+” guys who shot lots of 3?s, and names like Rashard Lewis (in his best years), Turkoglu (in his best years) and Gallo repeatedly came up? Why are you so sure that Bargnani can’t play that type of role for the Knicks?

      Yet Bargnani was, I believe, the lowest in WS48 on those lists, mostly because he is not really good at anything. Rashard Lewis posted a 59% TS on 20% USG. Bargnani’s never come close to that.

    21. JK47

      Hearing about Bargnani’s height as a great asset really bothers me. Yes, he’s 7 feet tall, but he probably plays smaller than any seven footer in NBA history. If his shooting ability combined with his height is such a massive asset, why is he rocking a .535 career TS% in 13,000 minutes of NBA play? Why is his rebounding atrocious? Why is he a lousy rim protector. Yes, he’s 7 feet tall but SO WHAT. It puzzles me why his height is always talked about like it’s an asset. He doesn’t do anything with it.

      You look at his stat lines, and they’re the stat lines you see from a mediocre NBA 2-guard. It’s obvious to me why he’s a bad player: when he’s out there, that’s one less big man doing the things that power forwards and centers do: rebound, block shots, score at a high efficiency, play help defense…

      I hope I’m wrong but I’m fully expecting the Bargnani experiment to be a disaster.

    22. er

      JK47:
      Hearing about Bargnani’s height as a great asset really bothers me.Yes, he’s 7 feet tall, but he probably plays smaller than any seven footer in NBA history.If his shooting ability combined with his height is such a massive asset, why is he rocking a .535 career TS% in 13,000 minutes of NBA play?Why is his rebounding atrocious?Why is he a lousy rim protector.Yes, he’s 7 feet tall but SO WHAT.It puzzles me why his height is always talked about like it’s an asset.He doesn’t do anything with it.

      You look at his stat lines, and they’re the stat lines you see from a mediocre NBA 2-guard.It’s obvious to me why he’s a bad player: when he’s out there, that’s one less big man doing the things that power forwards and centers do: rebound, block shots, score at a high efficiency, play help defense…

      I hope I’m wrong but I’m fully expecting the Bargnani experiment to be a disaster.

      its an asset because of matchups plain and simple. He can just shoot over smaller guys or get past slower ones.

    23. JK47

      er: its an asset because of matchups plain and simple. He can just shoot over smaller guys or get past slower ones.

      Then why is his efficiency so completely mediocre? Why is he magically going to be able to do those things here, when he hasn’t been able to do this in 13,000 NBA minutes. Yes, I know, role, but I think the concept of “role” is being way overstated here. If it’s so easy to shoot over the small guys and get past the slower guys, why the .535 career TS%?

    24. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      JK47: Then why is his efficiency so completely mediocre?Why is he magically going to be able to do those things here, when he hasn’t been able to do this in 13,000 NBA minutes.Yes, I know, role, but I think the concept of “role” is being way overstated here.If it’s so easy to shoot over the small guys and get past the slower guys, why the .535 career TS%?

      I feel the same way.

      The opponents aren’t going to change, except he’s no longer playing New York and playing Toronto instead.

      This is another one of those axioms that Knickerbloggers disagree on: how uniform/homogeneous is the game of basketball, how uniform/homogeneous are player positions, and to what degree do phenotypes differ on the court?

      Bargnani got open looks in Toronto. Will he get enough here to make a difference? And how do we explain our predictions when his efficiency drops or stays the same?

    25. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Bargnani got open looks in Toronto. Will he get enough here to make a difference? And how do we explain our predictions when his efficiency drops or stays the same?

      Bargnani got open looks in Toronto. Did he get open looks in Toronto? I don’t know that.

      Will he get enough here? We’ll see. We have no idea how he’ll be used.

      And how do we explain our predictions when his efficiency drops or stays the same? I don’t know how we will do that, but what if he DOES become more efficient? Will WOW need an explanation or will they chalk it up to “don’t bother me with outlier” status?

    26. er

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I feel the same way.

      The opponents aren’t going to change, except he’s no longer playing New York and playing Toronto instead.

      This is another one of those axioms that Knickerbloggers disagree on: how uniform/homogeneous is the game of basketball, how uniform/homogeneous are player positions, and to what degree do phenotypes differ on the court?

      Bargnani got open looks in Toronto. Will he get enough here to make a difference? And how do we explain our predictions when his efficiency drops or stays the same?

      you guys make valid points. The key difference is Melo though. A guy like Kawai Leonard would guard him in TO, now Leonard would obviously play melo and a second tier defender would have to guard him. I could be wrong but this has to help. Woodson has to be strategic in maximizing him.

    27. flossy

      JK47: Why is his rebounding atrocious? Why is he a lousy rim protector. Yes, he’s 7 feet tall but SO WHAT. It puzzles me why his height is always talked about like it’s an asset. He doesn’t do anything with it.

      For what it’s worth, if you buy into the “Dwight Effect” theory, Bargnani is #2 in the league (by a hair) at “proximal FG%” (opponents FG% when he is within 5′ of their shot):

      1. Larry Sanders – 34.9%
      2. Bargnani – 35.2%
      3. Kendrick Perkins – 37.3%
      4. Elton Brand – 38%
      5. Roy Hibbert – 38.7%

      http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/The%20Dwight%20Effect%20A%20New%20Ensemble%20of%20Interior%20Defense%20Analytics%20for%20the%20NBA.pdf

      Of course, he’s 90th out of 93 players ranked when it comes to the % of opponent FGAs for which he actually *is* within 5 feet of the shot at 22%, compared to league-leader Josh Harrellson (really) at 36%. And, he doesn’t even crack the top 50 when you sort the proximal % folks according to # of FGA defended near the rim…

      BUT it does suggest that there is some kernel of defensive skill/usefulness? I don’t know, just grasping at straws here…

    28. JK47

      flossy: For what it’s worth, if you buy into the “Dwight Effect” theory, Bargnani is #2 in the league (by a hair) at “proximal FG%” (opponents FG% when he is within 5? of their shot):

      1. Larry Sanders – 34.9%
      2. Bargnani – 35.2%
      3. Kendrick Perkins – 37.3%
      4. Elton Brand – 38%
      5. Roy Hibbert – 38.7%

      http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/The%20Dwight%20Effect%20A%20New%20Ensemble%20of%20Interior%20Defense%20Analytics%20for%20the%20NBA.pdf

      Of course, he’s 90th out of 93 players ranked when it comes to the % of opponent FGAs for which he actually *is* within 5 feet of the shot at 22%, compared to league-leader Josh Harrellson (really) at 36%.And, he doesn’t even crack the top 50 when you sort the proximal % folks according to # of FGA defended near the rim…

      BUT it does suggest that there is some kernel of defensive skill/usefulness?I don’t know, just grasping at straws here…

      Well, that stat makes perfect sense, because:
      1. Bargnani is indeed seven feet and has long arms, so if he’s right next to you he’s probably hard to shoot around, and
      2. He’s an abysmally bad help defender and is never in the right place at the right time, so again, his seven-footedness turns out to be useless.

    29. er

      JK47: Well, that stat makes perfect sense, because:
      1. Bargnani is indeed seven feet and has long arms, so if he’s right next to you he’s probably hard to shoot around, and

      lol

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