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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Friday, Nov 30 2012)

  • [New York Times] Short-Handed Spurs Fall to Heat, 105-100 (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 08:39:04 GMT)
    When Gregg Popovich gives his best players a night off to rest, it’s not uncommon for the San Antonio Spurs coach to get letters from upset fans.

  • [New York Times] Warriors Take Down Nuggets in Wild Finish (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 07:29:26 GMT)
    The Golden State Warriors had to survive a video review after the final buzzer on Thursday but prevailed 106-105 in a thriller against the Denver Nuggets in Oakland.

  • [New York Times] Warriors Hold Off Nuggets 106-105 in Wild Finish (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 07:27:03 GMT)
    If there were ever a time to praise the benefits of replay, Warriors coach Mark Jackson found it.

  • [New York Times] On Pro Basketball: As Nets Rise, Celtics’ Division Dominance May Be Waning (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 06:01:45 GMT)
    The Celtics have dominated the Atlantic Division for the last half decade, but with the Nets on the rise, that could be coming to an end.

  • [New York Times] Stern Says Spurs Will Be Penalized for Resting Stars vs. Heat (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 06:00:18 GMT)
    Commissioner David Stern said San Antonio would be hit with “substantial sanctionsâ? for not playing four players in a loss to the Miami Heat on Thursday.

  • [New York Times] Knicks’ Chandler Is Becoming a Force on Offense, Too (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 06:00:18 GMT)
    Center Tyson Chandler, who has hit 32 of 36 shots in the past six games, is leading the league in field-goal percentage and is averaging a career-best 12 points a game.

  • [New York Times] Celtics’ Rajon Rondo Suspended 2 Games for Melee (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 06:00:18 GMT)
    The Celtics guard Rajon Rondo was suspended for starting a shoving match with the Nets’ Kris Humphries that escalated into a melee with other players.

  • [New York Times] Commissioner Riled by Spurs Move to Rest Top Players (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 05:05:27 GMT)
    NBA Commissioner David Stern vowed to punish the San Antonio Spurs for sending Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green home early rather than play in Miami on Thursday against NBA champion Heat.

  • [New York Times] Allen, Heat Top Short-Handed Spurs 105-100 (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 04:57:30 GMT)
    The NBA plans to make San Antonio pay for resting four starters.

  • [New York Times] Commissioner Stern Riled by Spurs Move to Rest Top Players (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 02:59:35 GMT)
    NBA Commissioner David Stern has vowed to punish the San Antonio Spurs for sending Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green home early rather than play in Miami on Thursday against NBA champion Heat.

  • [New York Times] NBA Vows to Sanction Spurs for Resting Regulars (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 02:06:41 GMT)
    The San Antonio Spurs will be punished by the NBA for their decision to send four top players home and not make them available to play in Miami against the Heat on Thursday night.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: The Nuggets’ Split-Personality Backcourt (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 01:44:44 GMT)
    At times, Andre Miller and Ty Lawson are fantastic as a pairing, but it is difficult to see how they complement each other in the Nuggets’ offense.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Nets Say Brook Lopez Will Miss 2 Games With Sprained Foot (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 01:44:29 GMT)
    Brook Lopez missed nearly all of last season after breaking a bone in the same foot, but this injury does not appear to be related, based on the initial report from the team.

  • [New York Times] Mavericks to Sign Veteran Guard Fisher (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 00:59:17 GMT)
    Point guard Derek Fisher signed a contract with the Dallas Mavericks after passing a physical.

  • [New York Daily News] No Kidding, Prigioni points the way for Jason-less Knicks (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 05:33:16 GMT)
    Nicholas Prigioni never asks his father how many minutes he played or how many points Carmelo Anthony scored. The son of a point guard always asks the only question that matters. “Did we win?â? Pablo Prigioni says. “That’s what he asks. If I say no, he starts to cry.â?

  • [New York Post] Prigioni to see more minutes (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 04:16:45 -0500)
    With Jason Kidd expected out again tonight when the Knicks face the pitiful 1-12 Wizards, Mike Woodson may have found answers in Milwaukee about forging on without the future Hall of Famer.
    The Knicks coach, who cancelled yesterday’s practice, may decide to give the temporary starting-forward slot to 3-point…

  • [New York Post] Knicks’ early 3-point barrage just a mirage (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 03:42:12 -0500)
    Five minutes into Monday’s Knicks-Nets, it was painfully evident that this was going to be another one of those games â?? one starved for pace, purpose and a better floor plan.
    Dribble it up â?? slowly â?? spread the floor, try to get a shot off before the shot clock told â?? and…

  • [New York Post] Source: Stoudemire eyes returning for Christmas (Fri, 30 Nov 2012 00:41:24 -0500)
    Amar’e Stoudemire’s goal is to return around Christmas, with mid-December no longer a legitimate possibility, according to person familiar with the Knicks power forward’s thinking. The person said Stoudemire hasn’t begun running on the court following his surgery on Nov. 1.The Knicks’ timetable of six-to-eight…

  • 83 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Friday, Nov 30 2012)

    1. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      How did the Spurs manage to keep it so close with four of their stars not in the game last night? I’m trying to figure out who created their shots, but I’m drawing a blank. There’s no way that Nando de Colo could get a shot off on his own, right?

    2. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      How did the Spurs manage to keep it so close with four of their stars not in the game last night? I’m trying to figure out who created their shots, but I’m drawing a blank. There’s no way that Nando de Colo could get a shot off on his own, right?

      Weird, it’s almost like Miami might not have tried as hard since they realized they weren’t playing anyone good. Almost like when the Knicks lost to the Rockets by 30…. That’s odd though, I’m pretty sure players are static figures that play at exactly the same level every moment of every game. Effort isn’t a variable at all…

    3. jon abbey

      I know, crazy, it’s almost like they have the best system and coach in the league, and managed to keep it close until Miami started trying harder at the end and outscored them 16-5 in the last three minutes.

    4. Hubert Davis

      In the Howard Beck article on the Nets posted above, he notes their sudden defensive prowess. I was impressed by this, too, when we played them. Even with players like Lopez, Humphries, etc they maintain very good team defense. Beck attributes it to coaching and the new presence of veterans like Wallace, Evans, et al who make other players accountable.

      If a team with Brook Lopez at Center can become the 7th best team in the league on a points per 100 possession basis, why do there continue to be believers that we can’t play great defense with Amar’e when we have the same factors in place?

    5. cgreene

      Back to prior discussion about Pop and his impending fine/suspension, there are deft ways of handling things and there are “fuck you, David Stern” ways of handling things. The deft way would have been to bring the players, stagger their minutes and not make a headline about it. Pop decided on the other and he will, therefore, deserve the punishment. He absolutely 100% has the good of the league as part of his job description.

    6. Hubert Davis

      Question:

      Also in that Beck article, he says:

      “The Nets are 11th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.1 points per 100 possessions.”

      I go to basketballreference.com to peruse stats, and through the same amount of games it states they allow 102.2 points per 100 possessions:

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013.html

      Are there different methodologies to defining possessions? And if so, what is the go to source? (I’m curious if Beck got bad information or if I’m using an inferior source of information.)

    7. Juany8

      Hubert Davis:
      Question:

      Also in that Beck article, he says:

      “The Nets are 11th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.1 points per 100 possessions.”

      I go to basketballreference.com to peruse stats, and through the same amount of games it states they allow 102.2 points per 100 possessions:

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013.html

      Are there different methodologies to defining possessions?And if so, what is the go to source?(I’m curious if Beck got bad information or if I’m using an inferior source of information.)

      Might be Beck didn’t have the most recent game when he did the research for his stats. It’s still early enough in the season where a big game here of there makes a notable difference

    8. Nick C.

      cgreene:
      Back to prior discussion about Pop and his impending fine/suspension, there are deft ways of handling things and there are “fuck you, David Stern” ways of handling things.The deft way would have been to bring the players, stagger their minutes and not make a headline about it.Pop decided on the other and he will, therefore, deserve the punishment.He absolutely 100% has the good of the league as part of his job description.

      It may be a technicality but he certainly does not since the Spurs and not the NBA employ him. Next we might judge doctors based on what’s best for the AMA rather than the patient. As for Stern as the head of a league that allegedly was losing money by the hundreds of millions per year when it was strike time he should STFU and be grateful he isn’t lynched or pilloried as any CEO of a company that had such results might be (other than by cranks like me).

    9. Hubert Davis

      So Basketball Reference is still the correct site, I presume. Wasn’t trying to nitpick Beck or anything, I thought perhaps there is debate on what defines a possession (i.e. does one site start a new possession on an offensive rebound while one doesn’t) that might cause the discrepancy in stats, and thus there was a different source to use than the one I was using.

    10. cgreene

      Nick C.: It may be a technicality but he certainly does not since the Spurs and not the NBA employ him.Next we might judge doctors based on what’s best for the AMA rather than the patient.As for Stern as the head of a league that allegedly was losing money by the hundreds of millions per year when it was strike time he should STFU and be grateful he isn’t lynched or pilloried as any CEO of a company that had such results might be (other than by cranks like me).

      This analogy is horribly incorrect. The AMA is not the governing body of hospitals. They are either private entities or run by the state or other orgs like religious institutions. The AMA does not negotiate for example major donations on behalf of hospitals or the salaries of Drs. The NBA (Stern) negotiates the tv contracts of the league and he represents the consortium of owners for whom Popovich works directly. So whether in a dotted line or directly Greg Popovich works for the NBA.

    11. Juany8

      cgreene: This analogy is horribly incorrect.The AMA is not the governing body of hospitals.They are either private entities or run by the state or other orgs like religious institutions.The AMA does not negotiate for example major donations on behalf of hospitals or the salaries of Drs.The NBA (Stern) negotiates the tv contracts of the league and he represents the consortium of owners for whom Popovich works directly.So whether in a dotted line or directly Greg Popovich works for the NBA.

      Actually, David Stern works for the NBA, not the other way around. The league is just a collection of teams, the people with the real power are the owners, which means Poppovich works directly for his owner, and nobody else. David Stern can throw his little bitch fit, as long as Peter Holt believes his team has a better chance of winning a title doing exactly what Poppovich wants (hint: it does) he’ll probably tell Stern to stfu, or at the very least he’ll probably give Poppovich a little “bonus” at the end of the year to make up for it.

      By the way, Holt is the chairman of the NBA Board of Governors, he has a bit more influence than most owners

    12. cgreene

      Juany8: Actually, David Stern works for the NBA, not the other way around. The league is just a collection of teams, the people with the real power are the owners, which means Poppovich works directly for his owner, and nobody else. David Stern can throw his little bitch fit, as long as Peter Holt believes his team has a better chance of winning a title doing exactly what Poppovich wants (hint: it does) he’ll probably tell Stern to stfu, or at the very least he’ll probably give Poppovich a little “bonus” at the end of the year to make up for it.

      By the way, Holt is the chairman of the NBA Board of Governors, he has a bit more influence than most owners

      I never said Stern doesn’t work for the NBA. Where’d you get that? Stern essentially acts as the CEO of a company that works for a board of directors that have voting power and make major corporate decisions such as a major purchase or sale and the hiring of that CEO. Other than that the CEO has the right to operate the company as he sees fit. And if one of the CEO’s VPs of San Antonio pisses him off the CEO is responsible for that discipline. That’s how this is structured. Popovich works for one of a consortium of entities that operate with a certain amount of independence under the rules and guidelines of the NBA. He works for the NBA.

    13. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      How did the Spurs manage to keep it so close with four of their stars not in the game last night? I’m trying to figure out who created their shots, but I’m drawing a blank. There’s no way that Nando de Colo could get a shot off on his own, right?

      :O, i see what you did here….

      We attack specifically some players that have really high efficiency because of the shots they take, and can’t take any others. Aside of perhaps Matt Bonner, i don’t see many of this players that can’t create shots. But i see some of them that were regarded as not very efficient or merely average in other teams.

    14. mokers

      I actually think the spurs owner would Not want to upset the league that much, especially since his team would likely be one of the recipients of revenue sharing. the spurs owner is not in a market where he can piss in sterns face, like say our beloved Dolan. He is also preventing a fellow owner of his from maximizing their revenue and all of the owners benefitting from a larger tv contract. The scheduling was a bit of a dick move, but they had the schedule months ago. I think what pissed off the league is pop didn’t even bring his stars to the city with the team. I think it is reasonable to say Pop could have handled it much better and still agree with the basic premise of his actions

      Juany8: Actually, David Stern works for the NBA, not the other way around. The league is just a collection of teams, the people with the real power are the owners, which means Poppovich works directly for his owner, and nobody else. David Stern can throw his little bitch fit, as long as Peter Holt believes his team has a better chance of winning a title doing exactly what Poppovich wants (hint: it does) he’ll probably tell Stern to stfu, or at the very least he’ll probably give Poppovich a little “bonus” at the end of the year to make up for it.

      By the way, Holt is the chairman of the NBA Board of Governors, he has a bit more influence than most owners

    15. thenamestsam

      While I really don’t like what Pop did, I don’t like Stern punishing him for it either.

      There’s just no way to apply any kind of consistent standard here. If Pop had brought the guys to the arena and not played them is that okay? What if he plays one of the four and not the others? What if he plays them 8 minutes each? What if he says they all tweaked their ankles. The NBA can’t possibly be in the business of determining how much guys should play, so inevitably the punishment is more for how the actions were portrayed than for the actual actions themselves. I don’t like that.

    16. Frank

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      How did the Spurs manage to keep it so close with four of their stars not in the game last night? I’m trying to figure out who created their shots, but I’m drawing a blank. There’s no way that Nando de Colo could get a shot off on his own, right?

      LOL – let’s play that game 100x with real $ on the line and see how many times the game is within 5 points at the end. I would wager we just saw the 1x it would happen.

      Re: Pop — I don’t see how Stern can avoid fining or suspending him. As someone wrote above, that’s an F-you to the league and to TNT. What, he couldn’t make up an injury to Parker, give Ginobili a rest day because of his recent injuries, give Duncan a DNP-OLD, etc.? And Danny Green is what, 23 years old? He can’t play 15 minutes? Yes, Pop works for the Spurs and should have discretion especially given his stature in the coaching world, but to just send your top 4 players home and not even attempt to make up some sort of pretense is about as indelicate and embarrassing for the league as possible. He was trying to make a statement of some sort re: back-to-backs and 4 games in 5 nights, and you just can’t do that. The fact that it ended up being a close game makes it look worse for Stern, but IMHO doesn’t change the fact that Pop’s head has gotten ginormous and the NBA and Stern is within its rights (under best interests of the league) to punish him for it.

    17. Hubert Davis

      The hilarious part about this is that Stern has fought for a system in which when he imposes financial sanctions on the Spurs they get paid for by the Knicks.

    18. johnno

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I’m trying to figure out who created their shots, but I’m drawing a blank. There’s no way that Nando de Colo could get a shot off on his own, right?

      Because everyone knows that you can look at one box score and infer that that is how the player would play every game over an 82 game season. Here’s what has me puzzled — I looked at a Bucks box score from a few years ago and I can’t figure out why no one is making a big deal over the fact that Brandon Jennings averages 55 points a game since he must always perform exactly like he did that night as a rookie. Or I looked at a few random box scores and can’t figure out why Jamaal Crawford isn’t lauded as an all-time great because he averages over 50 points a night (he must do it every night because he did it a couple times, right?). And no one makes a big deal over the fact that David Lee averages 31 (on 13-15 shooting) and 6 assists (he did it last night, so he must do it every night, right?). Hey, wait a minute — THJC can’t possibly be cherry picking a stat to make a ridiculous point, could he? Nah, he NEVER does that…

    19. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: Weird, it’s almost like Miami might not have tried as hard since they realized they weren’t playing anyone good. Almost like when the Knicks lost to the Rockets by 30…. That’s odd though, I’m pretty sure players are static figures that play at exactly the same level every moment of every game. Effort isn’t a variable at all…

      Dude, are you actually suggesting that the Heat played them like they were a JV squad? Is that your explanation? Really?

    20. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey:
      I know, crazy, it’s almost like they have the best system and coach in the league, and managed to keep it close until Miami started trying harder at the end and outscored them 16-5 in the last three minutes.

      So when Miami “tries hard” against a top-tier team’s “second unit,” they can easily triple the opposing team’s score? Yeah, that’s a reasonable assumption about one pro basketball team playing another.

    21. PC

      I think Jowles was just noting that posters argued those dudes couldn’t get off their own shots, and they did just fine “getting off their own shots” last night. The argument those uber-efficient players that work off crumbs in normal games cannot get off shots if they were more featured (even slightly or grossly) is insane. Last night proved it.

      johnno: Because everyone knows that you can look at one box score and infer that that is how the player would play every game over an 82 game season. Here’s what has me puzzled — I looked at a Bucks box score from a few years ago and I can’t figure out why no one is making a big deal over the fact that Brandon Jennings averages 55 points a game since he must always perform exactly like he did that night as a rookie. Or I looked at a few random box scores and can’t figure out why Jamaal Crawford isn’t lauded as an all-time great because he averages over 50 points a night (he must do it every night because he did it a couple times, right?). And no one makes a big deal over the fact that David Lee averages 31 (on 13-15 shooting) and 6 assists (he did it last night, so he must do it every night, right?). Hey, wait a minute — THJC can’t possibly be cherry picking a stat to make a ridiculous point, could he? Nah, he NEVER does that…

    22. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      iserp: :O, i see what you did here….

      We attack specifically some players that have really high efficiency because of the shots they take, and can’t take any others. Aside of perhaps Matt Bonner, i don’t see many of this players that can’t create shots. But i see some of them that were regarded as not very efficient or merely average in other teams.

      “Can’t take any others” is the problem I have with this assumption. We assume that Carmelo Anthony is somehow the world beater at 1) not turning the ball over on those “iso”-type “shot creation” moments and 2) scoring on those “shitty” shot attempts more often than another player. I’m pretty sure that Tyson Chandler can shoot the ball whenever he wants; he just won’t be very efficient about it — a lot like the other “creation”-oriented shot takers that my most vocal detractors support.

    23. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      PC:
      I think Jowles was just noting that posters argued those dudes couldn’t get off their own shots, and they did just fine “getting off their own shots” last night.The argument those uber-efficient players that work off crumbs in normal games cannot get off shots if they were more featured (even slightly or grossly) is insane.Last night proved it.

      Boom, roasted.

    24. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: So when Miami “tries hard” against a top-tier team’s “second unit,” they can easily triple the opposing team’s score? Yeah, that’s a reasonable assumption about one pro basketball team playing another.

      It’s almost like he’s cherry picking a small sample size in response to a comment where you did EXACTLY THE SAME THING. Weird.

    25. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      PC:
      I think Jowles was just noting that posters argued those dudes couldn’t get off their own shots, and they did just fine “getting off their own shots” last night.The argument those uber-efficient players that work off crumbs in normal games cannot get off shots if they were more featured (even slightly or grossly) is insane.Last night proved it.

      And the best part is that last night was the PERFECT example of a team WITHOUT “shot-creators.” Four of the five best players on the Spurs (historically, at least) were not in the game at all! Tony Parkers and Manu Ginobili are the epitome of shot-creators, and without them, the Spurs still took a lot of shots AND made a lot of shots! In fact, the Heat still had to play LeBron for 39 minutes, and didn’t have a substantially higher TS% than the Spurs did last night. What’s up with that?

    26. thenamestsam

      PC:
      I think Jowles was just noting that posters argued those dudes couldn’t get off their own shots, and they did just fine “getting off their own shots” last night.The argument those uber-efficient players that work off crumbs in normal games cannot get off shots if they were more featured (even slightly or grossly) is insane.Last night proved it.

      You honestly believe that one regular season game can offer definitive proof of a universal truth about NBA basketball?

    27. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: It’s almost like he’s cherry picking a small sample size in response to a comment where you did EXACTLY THE SAME THING. Weird.

      I’m telling you what’s real: last night, the Spurs scored 100 pts on 80 FGA. Although they turned the ball over quite a few times, they equalled the Heat in terms of scoring efficiency (and LeBron James played 39 minutes!). Juany8 is making a psychological assumption about the Heat — that they would show up and “not play as hard” because the Spurs’ best players weren’t playing. Do you really see these things as equals?

    28. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: You honestly believe that one regular season game can offer definitive proof of a universal truth about NBA basketball?

      Definitive proof? No. Substantial proof that a team without “shot-creators” can take a lot of shots in a basketball game, and make them at an above-average efficiency? Absolutely.

    29. JK47

      It’s pretty clear to me that the Heat, who rank 24th in defensive rating, pick and choose when they feel like playing hard.

    30. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Because that’s exactly what they fucking did.

      No one’s saying the Spurs would be a better team without Leonard, Ginobili, Duncan, and Parker. Last night’s game suggests that without them, NBA-quality players can still shoot the ball, and shoot it well. With a bunch of “no-name,” second-rank players.

    31. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And the best part is that last night was the PERFECT example of a team WITHOUT “shot-creators.” Four of the five best players on the Spurs (historically, at least) were not in the game at all! Tony Parkers and Manu Ginobili are the epitome of shot-creators, and without them, the Spurs still took a lot of shots AND made a lot of shots! In fact, the Heat still had to play LeBron for 39 minutes, and didn’t have a substantially higher TS% than the Spurs did last night. What’s up with that?

      This is hardly a “perfect example”, there were plenty of players that could create, and the only one that has been uber-efficient because only takes “easy shots” is Matt Bonner (and you could include DeJuan Blair) . I think the Spurs has been good at making a bench with stars a lot of people regarded as bad chuckers (Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson last year), and aren’t swayed by all this “efficiency at all costs” arguments.

    32. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      JK47:
      It’s pretty clear to me that the Heat, who rank 24th in defensive rating, pick and choose when they feel like playing hard.

      Or that they’re not very good at defense this year. Attributing it to “effort” without any kind of evidence is a fucking laugher.

    33. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Because that’s exactly what they fucking did.

      No one’s saying the Spurs would be a better team without Leonard, Ginobili, Duncan, and Parker. Last night’s game suggests that without them, NBA-quality players can still shoot the ball, and shoot it well. With a bunch of “no-name,” second-rank players.

      You are building a strawman argument. We didn’t attack the nonames of the world, but the Farieds (and even some star names like James Harden)

      Not so many years ago, Kevin Martin was adored by all the efficiency stats, and in Houston was regarded as a bad chucker…. let’s see what happens this year.

    34. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      iserp: This is hardly a “perfect example”, there were plenty of players that could create, and the only one that has been uber-efficient because only takes “easy shots” is Matt Bonner (and you could include DeJuan Blair) . I think the Spurs has been good at making a bench with stars a lot of people regarded as bad chuckers (Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson last year), and aren’t swayed by all this “efficiency at all costs” arguments.

      And there are plenty of players who can “create” on every NBA team. It’s professional basketball. Every player in the league is athletic enough to play pro ball. These are the best 400 players in the world.

    35. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And the best part is that last night was the PERFECT example of a team WITHOUT “shot-creators.” Four of the five best players on the Spurs (historically, at least) were not in the game at all! Tony Parkers and Manu Ginobili are the epitome of shot-creators, and without them, the Spurs still took a lot of shots AND made a lot of shots! In fact, the Heat still had to play LeBron for 39 minutes, and didn’t have a substantially higher TS% than the Spurs did last night. What’s up with that?

      I mean did you not understand Johno’s post above? What’s up with the time Jennings scored 55 points? Or the time Kobe scored 81 on 28-46 shooting. Or the time Tim Hardaway went 0-17 from the floor in a game. Or Dirk went 24/24 from the line. Or Steve Blake had 14 assists in a quarter. Or Dampier had 8 blocks in a quarter. What was up with those?

    36. jon abbey

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: So when Miami “tries hard” against a top-tier team’s “second unit,” they can easily triple the opposing team’s score? Yeah, that’s a reasonable assumption about one pro basketball team playing another.

      heh, maybe you missed the OKC/CHA 79-25 score from last week (before OKC pulled their starters). if you told MIA yesterday afternoon that they needed to win that game by 50 or face some dire consequences I’m too sleepy to think of, I think they would have given it a good run.

    37. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      iserp: You are building a strawman argument. We didn’t attack the nonames of the world, but the Farieds (and even some star names like James Harden)

      Not so many years ago, Kevin Martin was adored by all the efficiency stats, and in Houston was regarded as a bad chucker…. let’s see what happens this year.

      iserp: You are building a strawman argument. We didn’t attack the nonames of the world, but the Farieds (and even some star names like James Harden)

      So it’s a strawman because I’m using the Spurs and not Faried (or whoever), yet someone like Juany8 or jon abbey can say “the Heat didn’t try last night” and be okay?

    38. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey: heh, maybe you missed the OKC/CHA 79-25 score from last week (before OKC pulled their starters). if you told MIA yesterday afternoon that they needed to win that game by 50 or face some dire consequences I’m too sleepy to think of, I think they would have given it a good run.

      So LeBron James playing 39 minutes indicates what to you?

    39. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: And there are plenty of players who can “create” on every NBA team. It’s professional basketball. Every player in the league is athletic enough to play pro ball. These are the best 400 players in the world.

      Everyone can create, but not everybody in the same level. But i am pretty sure that Melo could convert at a efficiency of Kenneth Faried if there was someone who created for him, and Melo declined all responsibility to initiate the plays.

    40. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: I mean did you not understand Johno’s post above? What’s up with the time Jennings scored 55 points? Or the time Kobe scored 81 on 28-46 shooting. Or the time Tim Hardaway went 0-17 from the floor in a game. Or Dirk went 24/24 from the line. Or Steve Blake had 14 assists in a quarter. Or Dampier had 8 blocks in a quarter. What was up with those?

      So you want me to assume that this is a statistical aberration instead of indicative of some quality of American professional basketball?

      No, you’re right. You’ve convinced me.

    41. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      iserp: Everyone can create, but not everybody in the same level. But i am pretty sure that Melo could convert at a efficiency of Kenneth Faried if there was someone who created for him, and Melo declined all responsibility to initiate the plays.

      Faried creates his own shots when he crashes the boards. Can Carmelo do that with the same effectiveness?

    42. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: So you want me to assume that this is a statistical aberration instead of indicative of some quality of American professional basketball?

      No, you’re right. You’ve convinced me.

      Lol. I don’t want you to assume anything. That’s my entire point you beautifully oblivious fool. If you’re reaching any conclusion about anything based on a one game sample you are stupid. Full stop. That is all.

    43. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: So it’s a strawman because I’m using the Spurs and not Faried (or whoever), yet someone like Juany8 or jon abbey can say “the Heat didn’t try last night” and be okay?

      It is a strawman because it is easy to defeat the argument that the nonames can play. But it is more difficult to argue that a team composed of uber-efficient players could score at all. You have talked many times about a team composed of Chandler, Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Landry Fields and Jeremy Lin -all of them superstars by WP48- would crush the opposition. No coach with sanity would put all of them together on the court, and specially not Poppovich. That’s your task, defend the Chandler’s, Faried’s,… offensive qualities.

      Not Diaw’s! I know that Boris Diaw is a good player when he wants to be.

    44. iserp

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Faried creates his own shots when he crashes the boards. Can Carmelo do that with the same effectiveness?

      Yes, he can. But then he has to be in position to crash the boards instead of position of getting the ball.

      And i am not saying that anything that Faried’s do has no value. But that he declines all responsibility to initiate plays, and someone has to do it for him. And if you put together all this people that decline to initiate plays (and are superstars of advanced stats because they have less TO’s and more FG% this way), then that team would suck.

    45. thenamestsam

      iserp: It is a strawman because it is easy to defeat the argument that the nonames can play. But it is more difficult to argue that a team composed of uber-efficient players could score at all. You have talked many times about a team composed of Chandler, Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Landry Fields and Jeremy Lin-all of them superstars by WP48- would crush the opposition. No coach with sanity would put all of them together on the court, and specially not Poppovich. That’s your task, defend the Chandler’s, Faried’s,… offensive qualities.

      Not Diaw’s! I know that Boris Diaw is a good player when he wants to be.

      Besides, it’s a dumb argument because nobody is saying or has ever said that the mythical WP/48 team would never make a shot, or win a game. People are saying they wouldn’t be very good, and specifically they definitely wouldn’t be by far the best team in the league. One game offers ZERO conclusive proof one way or the other with regards to answering that question.

    46. iserp

      And i am perfectly fine having one Faried (or 2) in a team. Ours is Tyson Chandler and he has been a blessing. But he can’t do more than he is asked for currently. You can try to run some more plays for him, … but i think Felton has been playing the P&R with Chandler a lot already; and the overall results have been OK (but not spectacular).

    47. johnno

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Dude, are you actually suggesting that the Heat played them like they were a JV squad? Is that your explanation? Really?

      Everyone but THCJ is stupid, don’t you realize that? Over an 82 game season, good teams NEVER look at weak opposition and at least subconsciously mail a game in. (I must have been imagining the Knicks losing to some horrendous teams last year.) I am absolutely sure that LeBron and friends looked at the Spurs last night and said, “Holy crap! We have to face Diaw, Splitter AND deCola, ALL IN THE SAME GAME?!?!? We had better bring our A game or we’re gonna get smoked! I sure wish we were playing against stiffs like Parker, Duncan and Manu.” I watched the second half. Does ANYONE think that the Heat were playing with anything close to maximum intensity?

      By the way, Woodson’s biggest challenge tonight will be getting the Knicks to play hard against the Wiz.

    48. thenamestsam

      johnno: Everyone but THCJ is stupid, don’t you realize that?Over an 82 game season, good teams NEVER look at weak opposition and at least subconsciously mail a game in.(I must have been imagining the Knicks losing to some horrendous teams last year.)I am absolutely sure that LeBron and friends looked at the Spurs last night and said, “Holy crap!We have to face Diaw, Splitter AND deCola, ALL IN THE SAME GAME?!?!?We had better bring our A game or we’re gonna get smoked!I sure wish we were playing against stiffs like Parker, Duncan and Manu.”I watched the second half.Does ANYONE think that the Heat were playing with anything close to maximum intensity?

      By the way, Woodson’s biggest challenge tonight will be getting the Knicks to play hard against the Wiz.

      Seriously. To act like the idea that Lebron and Co. might have treated last night’s game just slightly differently than say Game 6 on the road in Boston is some crazy out there “psychological assumption” is insane. San Antonio’s bench guys played well, but they clearly (to all but 1 person) got something far less than Miami’s best effort.

      On a different note: Wade looked pretty much downright awful, which is something last night’s game had in common with basically every other Heat game I’ve seen this year. Anyone have any thoughts on what’s up with him? If the A+ DWade is gone forever that would be a major step towards us having a real chance at taking them down.

    49. DRed

      This is a point I think a lot of people overlook. Yes, Tyson Chandler can’t get put back dunks without someone missing-but not everyone can get those putback dunks as often as Tyson Chandler. He creates extra shots.

      As for the possibility of some of the Heat players not giving maximum effort, that’s also at least possible. It’s a long season. Teams don’t give their all every night. To my eyes, the Heat did actually look like they were trying last night, but I didn’t watch every minute of the game.

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Faried creates his own shots when he crashes the boards. Can Carmelo do that with the same effectiveness?

    50. DRed

      Wade’s style of play has lead to him taking a beating. He’s probably starting to break down. Fortunately for the Heat (and unfortunately for us), they play with a human wrecking ball on the court.

    51. Nick C.

      DRed:
      This is a point I think a lot of people overlook.Yes, Tyson Chandler can’t get put back dunks without someone missing-but not everyone can get those putback dunks as often as Tyson Chandler.He creates extra shots.

      I often wonder how Jared Jefferies would do given the exact same opportunities as Chandler.

    52. Juany8

      It’s amazing to me that we have to debate whether or not teams try equally hard every night. Did no one see what happened to Miami the last time they won a championship? Does no one see the Celtics losing to the Pistons by 20 and think hmmm…. This is probably indivative of the quality of play they’ll show in the playoffs against Miami. Oh and THCJ, if you’re trying to use last night as evidence of ANYTHING, the last game Harden played, against OKC where he had every motivation in the world to play his best game, he had more turnovers than made field goals when the game was still competitive. I guess Harden is a scrub compared to Gary Neel then.

      There’s also a very clear cut and recent example. Weren’t the Bulls supposed to be an excellent team even without Derrick Rose? WP says Rose was like their 5th best per minute player last year, and yet the rest of the Bulls were only able to win 1 game against a pretty mediocre Sixers team, and that’s after the Bulls were just fine during the regular season without him because *gasp* they try harder than everyone else! But not during the playoffs…

      Oh and you want your shot creator for the Spurs? It’s Poppovich. When you run a fucking brilliant system it’s easier to just plug in players. Poppovich is probably worth more wins than any of the Spurs players that played last night. Oh I forgot, your little formulas don’t really account for coaching, or the fact that Mills and Neel are at least quality rotation guards, they didn’t throw out Douglas and Fields out there. Diaw is also a very good passing big man and can create a lot of looks, all that added up to the Heat’s shitty defense (that I’d bet all my life savings will no longer look shitty in the playoffs) and you get a game where the Heat decided to turn it on late to save the day, just like in half their other games this season.

    53. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      DRed:
      This is a point I think a lot of people overlook.Yes, Tyson Chandler can’t get put back dunks without someone missing-but not everyone can get those putback dunks as often as Tyson Chandler.He creates extra shots.

      As for the possibility of some of the Heat players not giving maximum effort, that’s also at least possible.It’s a long season.Teams don’t give their all every night.To my eyes, the Heat did actually look like they were trying last night, but I didn’t watch every minute of the game.

      This is exactly the problem here:

      Miami didn’t blow out a bunch of “role players,” so they must not have played hard. Total hogwashery.

    54. Juany8

      So offensive rebounding is a type of shot creation, and it is actually a very efficient form of shot creation, but it has 2 major issues.

      1. Crashing the boards too much exposes your defense to quick fast break teams and…

      2. There isn’t a way to plan for a guy to get an offensive rebound. If you’re down in a game (which one team always is by the way) and you need to score points, how exactly do you make sure that Tyson Chandler gets to take his 70% efficiency outback?

      Forget about numbers for a moment and let’s talk game theory, you can talk all you want about how Chandler should be taking more shots, but you have to provide a way to make it happen within the confines of the 24 second shot clock. There is no way to ensure that an offensive rebound occurs without actually missing a shot first, so any attempt to run a good offense has to assume that you need to make the shot in. You can’t plan around rebounding, and sometimes you simply NEED to score. Therefore offensive rebounds are not involved in the team’s actual offense, they’re a supplement after a failed possession. That limits the total impact the offensive putbacks can have, you simply can’t get too many of those shots off a game, and you can’t count on getting an offensive rebound in a must score possession. So players like Faried and Chandler do have a notable impact, but their type of shot creation has a cap, there are only going to be so many offensive rebounding opportunities.

      Ultimately that’s the problem with a “finisher” like Chandler, Faried, or Bonner, on a random possession they are more likely than not going to have very little impact. Chandler is still a stud since he has a tremendous defensive impact on most defensive possessions, but a player like Melo is capable of making an impact on every offensive possession regardless of the circumstances. To do that, you need to be able to have the ball in your hands and it really helps to be able to shoot

    55. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is exactly the problem here:

      Miami didn’t blow out a bunch of “role players,” so they must not have played hard. Total hogwashery.

      Sure, you’re right that it’s at least partially confirmation bias. We “know” that Miami should win easily, so when they don’t we assume they weren’t trying as hard. However, that doesn’t make it “total hogwashery”. Because everyone agrees that players don’t bring it 100% every night. And hardly anything would be more deflating than hearing 2 hours before the game that the other team doesn’t intend to try to win (not saying that SA didn’t try, just that it’s inevitably how LBJ and Co. would feel about it). So there’s plenty of reasons to think they weren’t giving 100%. Plus it didn’t look like they were. So it’s not complete BS.

      But here’s the way more important point. People saying the Heat didn’t try are only saying that to point out that you shouldn’t reach any big conclusions based on this one game. Which should be totally obvious to anyone with half a brain for many reasons. Mainly that it’s one game. So feel free to completely ignore the point about Miami’s effort if you want. You still can’t draw any conclusions based on one game.

    56. Thomas B.

      I love it.

      Stern’s chickens coming home to roost. For nearly 30 years, he has pushed star players on the fans rather than teams. He sees that the marquee names on the Spurs are not going to play, and he thinks the fans will be upset. Why shouldn’t he think that when he pretty much only markets the star players?

      Stern promised the fans stars, when Pop made it so he couldn’t deliver, it made Stern look like an ass because now he has to admit that it is a star driven league. He knows it is, but he hates that he has to say that it is.

      The game was entertaining and well played, but without stars, who cares right? He has to admit that his fans can no longer recognize good basketball, they only recognize stars. The idea that his anger is driven by the fact that Miami fans can only see the Spurs once a year in Miami is total BS. This guy pushes NBALP on everyone he can. Even without NBALP, the Spurs will be on National TV around 8-10 times (I guess). If you live in Miami and you want to see Tim Duncan that badly, because you know he is a super charismatic guy, drive up to Atlanta. Heck you can get floor seats to a Hawks game for the price on a 200 level Heat ticket.
      I can see Stern calling Pop and having this conversation.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugTwbS24ZAQ

    57. DRed

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: This is exactly the problem here:

      Miami didn’t blow out a bunch of “role players,” so they must not have played hard. Total hogwashery.

      There are definitely games where teams don’t play at maximum effort, but I don’t like saying it’s not because they’re trying. We just don’t know. They could be worn out. They could have all been out partying the night before. There could be some sort of personal issues. Unless you have some sort of insider knowledge, it’s too easy to just say they weren’t trying their hardest (although that’s also possible).

    58. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Actually, my little formulas DO account for coaching… Popovich is a genius.

      So maybe Poppovich can make any NBA players competitive in a game? This is what I find funny about what you call “science”, you literally just ignore half the factors that affect the outcome of basketball games because you haven’t found a way to measure them. Let’s see Vinny Del Negro take these same players and have a competitive game against Miami in a playoff game 100 times and see if they even make it within 20 again. My hypothesis is no, but neither of us can test it. Luckily I realize that means I shouldn’t be talking shit on a message board about how I know for a fact everyone else doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

      We’re both trying to take educated guesses here, somehow you think your methodology gives you the right to pretend you’re fundamentally more right than I am. Yet here we are, and the Nuggets aren’t contending, and the Knicks are doing great despite not giving Camby any minutes and Novak sucking. Kevin Martin and James Harden switched efficiency, and it turns out having a high PPS off the bench in Chicago didn’t stop Asik from being a terrible offensive player. I suppose when the Rockets, Timberwolves, and Nuggets win about 4 playoff games combined it’ll turn out that they were all outliers

    59. StatsTeacher

      Great Thread.

      Stern is an ass, can’t stand that guy.

      Farried, Chandler, Leonard, Fields, Lin YES ! will they even score 50?

      Just wanted to say one last thing about Linsanity, the Houston Blog has a similar thread, it has 2380 comments. It has broken down into some interesting camps — they have LOF’s now! Lowry Only Fans lol.

    60. Frank

      Juany8: Ultimately that’s the problem with a “finisher” like Chandler, Faried, or Bonner, on a random possession they are more likely than not going to have very little impact.

      I agree with your point sort of but I think you (probably unintentionally) overlook the unmeasured effects a player can have on any offensive possession. Chandler is a GREAT screener and without a doubt creates better shots for others on that basis. The fact that he is such a great roller means that defenses need to crash in on him when he dives, leaving openings in other places. If Novak hits a 3 off a PNR kick-out, Chandler gets none of the credit even though his superior screening ability and his ridiculously awesome finishing ability are in large part responsible for the fact that Novak got an open shot. Similarly, guys like Bonner and Novak space the floor. If Tyson dives the lane and the guy who is supposed to rotate to him on the dive is a step slow because he’s afraid to leave Novakaine in the corner, then that’s an alleyoop and a PPP of 2 for Tyson. But Novak gets no statistical credit for the fact that the threat of his shooting is what made that shot easier for Tyson.

    61. Frank

      @THCJ – I took your advice and read Stumbling on Wins. Here are my initial thoughts:

      1) I agree that fundamentally, ball possession and scoring efficiency are what wins team basketball games.

      2) I disagree that you can separate out individual players’ contributions to those numbers based on the box score.

      3) If the hypothesis is that each player is responsible for his own stats, then why should there be a disparity between WP48 between positions? Why should you need position adjustment? Are guards less win-producing than centers/PFs in terms of wins?

      4) If guards are less win-producing, then why have them on the court at all? Why not line up 5 PF/Cs?

      5) Paraphrasing since I don’t have the book in front of me, Berri’s answer to that question is basically because that’s how basketball lineups are constructed. That is not an acceptable answer.

      6) The answer obviously is that if you put the 5 current best WP48 centers on the floor together (Chandler, Noah, Gasol, Howard, Varejao) a few things would happen:
      - ball would be stolen immediately upon inbounds
      - there would 8 players standing within 4 feet of the basket on every possession (Gasol can shoot).

      So maybe you DO need guards. But guards turn the ball over more and shoot less efficiently, so should cost you wins. But if you tell me that someone needs to bring the ball up, the the PNR ballhandler, and enter the ball into the post appropriately, you’re making the point that there are significant interaction effects between players and positions, and that for Dwight Howard to be as efficient as he wants to be/is able to be, he needs a less win-producing position to be on the floor with him.

      As soon as you introduce the certainty that there are significant interactions between players, then the whole idea of individual possession and scoring efficiency being all-important sort of goes out the window.

    62. hnwingo

      Stern is right. Any fan buying a regular season ticket should see the best players on both teams, unless they are injured. You buy a ticket, you take the risk that a star will be injured; but not DNP-CD. The only exception is in the last week or two of the NBA and NFL season where all fans understand that some stars may be rested. I would have been very disappointed and angry if I shelled out my money to see the Spurs big 3 play against the Miami big 3 and then Popovich makes this cynical decision. As a TV viewer I would be mad; but get over it, fans at the arena must be treated better.

    63. Frank

      Now I’m not saying that ball possession, rebounding, etc. is not important. In last weeks Knicks/Nets game, Reggie Evans looked to be possibly the most important player on the floor while he was out there. But if you put Evans x5 on the floor, it’s obviously not a good lineup.

      My next nitpick – you’ve mentioned before that Berri has said that players’ numbers are the same year to year regardless of situation and that I should look in the book to find it. I did not find that statement. The best I could find was that box-score stats especially rebounding were most consistent from year-to-year (as opposed to plus-minus etc.). That is definitely not the same as saying that James Harden should have the same stats going from 3rd banana in OKC to 1st banana in Houston, or that we would expect Amare Stoudemire to have the same efficiency with or without Steve Nash.

      Anyway, those are preliminary thoughts. I need to reread it without being on the plane with my two year old screaming in my ear.

    64. ruruland

      Most of Chandlers efficiency is tied to uncontested rim runs . But he helps create open shots for great shooters.

      Without a skilled PnR pg, a great screener and finisher, and great shooters, no aspect of the play would work well. High screen and role 4-out with these pieces is the epitome of sum-of-parts effectiveness.

      Why are we still arguing with Jowles ? Are we all pretending that the study Juany posted wasn’t posted?

      Jowles with the one game sample is trolling so hard right now.

      You know the Knicks team offensive efficiency jumps from 98.2 to 117.3 with Carmelo on the floor?

      Melo has the highest offensive +/- of any player who’s received 150 or more minutes this year. He also has the highest usage in the NBA. These facts will not stop Jowles from trolling.

    65. Nick C.

      hnwingo:
      Stern is right.Any fan buying a regular season ticket should see the best players on both teams, unless they are injured.You buy a ticket, you take the risk that a star will be injured; but not DNP-CD.The only exception is in the last week or two of the NBA and NFL season where all fans understand that some stars may be rested.I would have been very disappointed and angry if I shelled out my money to see the Spurs big 3 play against the Miami big 3 and then Popovich makes this cynical decision.As a TV viewer I would be mad; but get over it, fans at the arena must be treated better.

      but don’t they, or more often the NFL, jockey around the start times to suit TV rather than the fan in the stands. I understand the issue, last year there was some talk regarding resting David Wright with the Mets and the day chosen being a Sunday same previously with Piazza or older players and day games after night games. Theater people might chime in on whether there is a discount if the big star can’t go on and the understudy takes the stage. Stern just needs to explain why anyone should listen to the head of an organization that by his own admission has been losing money for years.

    66. ruruland

      Frank:
      Now I’m not saying that ball possession, rebounding, etc. is not important. In last weeks Knicks/Nets game, Reggie Evans looked to be possibly the most important player on the floor while he was out there. But if you put Evans x5 on the floor, it’s obviously not a good lineup.

      My next nitpick – you’ve mentioned before that Berri has said that players’ numbers are the same year to year regardless of situation and that I should look in the book to find it. I did not find that statement.The best I could find was that box-score stats especially rebounding were most consistent from year-to-year (as opposed to plus-minus etc.).That is definitely not the same as saying that James Harden should have the same stats going from 3rd banana in OKC to 1st banana in Houston, or that we would expect Amare Stoudemire to have the same efficiency with or without Steve Nash.

      Anyway, those are preliminary thoughts. I need to reread it without being on the plane with my two year old screaming in my ear.

      Jowles will not respond to this post. He will ignore it and continue trolling.

    67. Frank

      ruruland: You know the Knicks team offensive efficiency jumps from 98.2 to 117.3 with Carmelo on the floor?

      And all with a career low assist rate! Wow assists MUST be a tell-all box-score stat re: someone’s ability to make others better.

    68. Nick C.

      Ruru-isn’t a large part of Chandlers (pick a random percent) tied to his own abililities to find open space, create it, catch the pass, and convert. Apparently Asik has issues with the catching (as did Mozgov) and I jokingly but seriously referenced Jefferies.

    69. ruruland

      Nick C.:
      Ruru-isn’t a large part of Chandlers (pick a random percent) tied to his own abililities to find open space, create it, catch the pass, and convert. Apparently Asik has issues with the catching (as did Mozgov)and I jokingly but seriously referenced Jefferies.

      Sure. He has relatively good hands, but turnovers seem to go up when he’s confined in tighter space, many of those dropped pass turnovers attributed to passer.

      He’s a good screener, mobile, with good hands and is a great finisher.all of those things crucial to play working. But without skilled PnR passer and at least a couple good shooter on the play side, it just doesn’t work nearly as well. The efficiency of play would go way down but much of it wouldn’t be reflected in Chandlers stats.

    70. ruruland

      Frank: And all with a career low assist rate! Wow assists MUST be a tell-all box-score stat re: someone’s ability to make others better.

      Team assist rate is low, too.

    71. ruruland

      ruruland: Sure. He has relatively good hands, but turnovers seem to go up when he’s confined in tighter space, many of those dropped pass turnovers attributed to passer.

      He’s a good screener, mobile, with good hands and is a great finisher.all of those things crucial to play working. But without skilled PnR passer and at least a couple good shooter on the play side, it just doesn’t work nearly as well. The efficiency of play would go way down but much of it wouldn’t be reflected in Chandlers stats.

      I should say one good shooter on play side.

    72. Nick C.

      ruruland: I should say one good shooter on play side.

      ruruland: Sure. He has relatively good hands, but turnovers seem to go up when he’s confined in tighter space, many of those dropped pass turnovers attributed to passer.

      He’s a good screener, mobile, with good hands and is a great finisher.all of those things crucial to play working. But without skilled PnR passer and at least a couple good shooter on the play side, it just doesn’t work nearly as well. The efficiency of play would go way down but much of it wouldn’t be reflected in Chandlers stats.

      Agreed. It just seemed the argument was trending to “he just takes shots anyone could make” which is not entirely true. Obviously a good pass is easier to convert. A defense that has other things to worry about besides him makes it easier for him as well.

    73. thenamestsam

      Frank,

      Really nice, thoughtful post. I especially like point #6. While THCJ will defend until his dying breath the viability of Chandler, Faried, Leonard, Fields, Lin as a legit NBA championship contender, I don’t think even he believes your 5 center lineup would take the NBA by storm. Once you acknowledge that positions matter, you’ve accepted that a team needs a mix of skills to succeed, which means you’ve accepted interaction effects by definition. End of conversation as far as I can tell.

      On a side note, I’d love to see a wacky college coach roll out this 5 center lineup. I mean nobody thinks it would work, but I’d love to see someone try it, just like I loved reading about the crazy Grinell system that led to that kid scoring 130-whatever points. You’d have a ton of trouble getting the ball up the court, but maybe you have one guy who can do a J-Kidd style back it across half court using his wide body. On offense you have no spacing, but you should be able to volleyball it against the backboard. Tons of O-rebounds. On defense you wouldn’t give up many lay-ups…I’d pay to see someone try it.

    74. massive

      I think somebody above noted that the Heat pick and choose when to play hard because of their 24th ranked defensive efficiency. Well, Boston is notorious for taking it easy for the regular season, and they finished 1st in defensive efficiency last year (they’re 23rd this year, but I don’t view them as a contender this year at all). It could just be that the reduction of Joel Anthony’s minutes and Wade’s now average basketball (WP/48 of .100, WS/48 of .103) has made them a worse defensive team.

      And do you guys think Miami thought it was a better strategy for them to mail in the game against Pops’ no-name Spurs roster than it is for them to crush SA in 36 minutes and watch from the bench for the 4th quarter? It’s what Mike Woodson’s Knicks would have done (and have been doing against inferior competition all year). I’m not saying that the Heat tried hard, but why aren’t we leaving open the possibility that it was Miami’s plan to get out of that game as fast as possible but simply couldn’t? It sure looked that way when the game started and Miami was up double digits after the first few minutes.

    75. thenamestsam

      massive: I think somebody above noted that the Heat pick and choose when to play hard because of their 24th ranked defensive efficiency. Well, Boston is notorious for taking it easy for the regular season, and they finished 1st in defensive efficiency last year (they’re 23rd this year, but I don’t view them as a contender this year at all). It could just be that the reduction of Joel Anthony’s minutes and Wade’s now average basketball (WP/48 of .100, WS/48 of .103) has made them a worse defensive team.

      I don’t think lack of effort is a strategic plan. I just think if you spend all week getting psyched to go against Duncan, Manu and Parker (not to mention game planning them, watching film, etc.) and then one hour before you hear that those guys aren’t even showing up to the arena it HAS to affect you mentally. It’s not like conciously they’re saying “Oh, we’ll mail it in tonight now”, you just think “Oh, this shouldn’t be too hard”. It just snaps you out of your focus. Being up 10 in the first couple minutes would only amplify that effect.

      As for Miami’s defense, there are real reasons to be concerned about it, but there are also reasons to think it’s at least partially effort based. Last year they were a very good defense in the regular season, but even then they allowed teams to shoot a lot of 3s at a very high percentage. Then they completely shut that down in the playoffs. This makes sense when you watch them. They crowd the paint and trap a lot to make up for a lack of size, and they rely on athleticism and effort to close out on the shooters that leaves open. That requires a high effort that can sag during the regular season. Once again this year their biggest weakness has been allowing a lot of 3s at a high percentage. If I were a betting man I’d bet they can turn it around when they need to, just like last year.

    76. Frank

      thenamestsam: Once you acknowledge that positions matter, you’ve accepted that a team needs a mix of skills to succeed, which means you’ve accepted interaction effects by definition. End of conversation as far as I can tell.

      Yeah – I get very uncomfortable when something requires a “fudge factor” to make the numbers all work out. The position adjustment weirds me out. It’s fine when someone like Hollinger says that yes, PER does underestimate defensive/low-usage players, but Berri and his acolytes are dead set that their formula is right for everything.

    77. Z-man

      I will again post a hypothetical question: What would happen if games were won or lost based on the combined WP for the team on each game? And by extension, what if players were paid (and coaches were rated) solely on individual and team Wins Produced scores, respectively? How would this affect the way that basketball is played on a team and on an individual level? I would love to see this experiment done, since any omnibus stat should be valid in reverse, i.e., the team that wins score-wize should invariably win the WP battle as well.

      Like Pop said (paraphrasing) after the Knicks beat the Spurs, the most consistently accurate stat in determing who won the game is WSTMP (Who scored the most points?) If a team can win the WP battle in an individual game but lose on the scoreboard, i.e. if scoring a game solely on a single metric would lead to different winners and losers than the final score would indicate, then the metric has to be tinkered with until that outcome is an impossibility.

    78. Juany8

      Frank: I agree with your point sort of but I think you (probably unintentionally) overlook the unmeasured effects a player can have on any offensive possession. Chandler is a GREAT screener and without a doubt creates better shots for others on that basis. The fact that he is such a great roller means that defenses need to crash in on him when he dives, leaving openings in other places.If Novak hits a 3 off a PNR kick-out, Chandler gets none of the credit even though his superior screening ability and his ridiculously awesome finishing ability are in large part responsible for the fact that Novak got an open shot.Similarly, guys like Bonner and Novak space the floor.If Tyson dives the lane and the guy who is supposed to rotate to him on the dive is a step slow because he’s afraid to leave Novakaine in the corner, then that’s an alleyoop and a PPP of 2 for Tyson. But Novak gets no statistical credit for the fact that the threat of his shooting is what made that shot easier for Tyson.

      Honestly, there’s character limits to these posts and I can only discuss so much haha. Chandler does have a nice impact with his screening, and I do think he’s a pretty nice offensive player overall. Combined with his incredible defense, I think that makes him a fantastic player. Spacing is also a major component of the game of course, but I think people underestimate how important it is to be able to at least pass off the ball from the perimeter. Novak is a great shooter, but he’s the biggest black hole on the team in that he pretty much either shoots the ball or totally halts the offense while he waits for someone to take it from him. Maybe Kidd is not as good a 3 point shooter, but he’s immensely more effective from the perimeter. Underrated skill when evaluating floor spacers, it’s why Ray Allen and Battier are better than Novak and Korver

    79. Juany8

      Frank: Yeah – I get very uncomfortable when something requires a “fudge factor” to make the numbers all work out.The position adjustment weirds me out.It’s fine when someone like Hollinger says that yes, PER does underestimate defensive/low-usage players, but Berri and his acolytes are dead set that their formula is right for everything.

      The positional adjustment you’re referring to is basically Berri admitting that his formula fails. Somehow, we’re supposed to buy the idea that a rebound from Landry Fields is more valuable than a rebound from Amar’e Stoudemire simply because guards get less rebounds in general compared to big men. It’s pretty laughable on it’s face, and even if you did have some kind of positional adjustment, why on earth would it be by the archaic PG-SG-SF-PF-C model? Does anyone think that Lebron James should be directly compared to Danillo Gallinari? Derrick Rose to Derrick Fisher?

      Berri basically admits that different players have different responsibilities, but then goes off a childish model for determining those responsibilities. It’s his total lack of understanding of the game of basketball that leads him to say it’s ok if PG’s score less efficiently and get more turnovers but that there are no interaction effects between players. It turns out PG’s tend to be the team’s shot creator more often than centers do, it’s nothing magical about the PG position. Steve Kerr is a lot closer to Novak on offense than he is to Chris Paul

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