Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Friday, May 03 2013)

  • [New York Daily News] After funeral fiasco, Woodson calls for closer vs. Celtics (Fri, 03 May 2013 05:22:19 GMT)
    On Thursday, Mike Woodson looked to regain control of his locker room after admitting that he wasn’t aware that players had planned to dress in black for the Celtics’ Game 5 “funeral.â? Had Woodson been clued into the Knicks’ bold fashion statement he would have put an end to it.    

  • [New York Daily News] Lawrence: Melo’s facing more pressure than anyone else (Fri, 03 May 2013 05:19:08 GMT)
    Doc Rivers left the Garden the other night trying to make a case that his Celtics, now very much in this series, and the Knicks, now teetering toward what would be a historic collapse, have equal pressure on them for Friday’s Game 6 in the TD Garden.    

  • [New York Daily News] Raissman: Playoffs exposing mental makeup of Knicks (Fri, 03 May 2013 05:07:40 GMT)
    With all those microphones positioned courtside at the Gulag, James (Guitar Jimmy) Dolan has likely ordered his designated lackey to listen to the audio and find out what Jordan Crawford really said to Carmelo Anthony.    

  • [New York Daily News] Lupica: For Melo & Co., it could soon be five players and a funeral (Fri, 03 May 2013 04:40:21 GMT)
    This is no game in Chump Town on Friday night, the place where the idea was hatched for the Knicks to show up in black because, look out, they were going to bury the Boston Celtics, who have won 17 championships in their history compared to two for the New York Knicks. No.    

  • [New York Times] Warriors Never Relent in Series Win Over Denver (Fri, 03 May 2013 07:52:19 GMT)
    The Golden State Warriors never relented. They didn’t back down when Andrew Bogut sat out rehabilitating his left ankle. They didn’t buckle when they lost Game 1 at Denver. And they didn’t quit when All-Star forward David Lee tore his right hip flexor in that playoff opener â?? and neither did Lee, for the matter.    

  • [New York Times] Nets Beat Bulls 95-92, Force Game 7 (Fri, 03 May 2013 07:39:45 GMT)
    The Brooklyn Nets wiped out their deficit. Now, they will try and finish off an improbable comeback.    

  • [New York Times] Game 6: Warriors 92, Nuggets 88: Warriors Eliminate Nuggets in Game 6 (Fri, 03 May 2013 07:39:07 GMT)
    Stephen Curry scored 22 points and David Lee made a surprising cameo in a quick return from injury as Golden State eliminated the Denver Nuggets in six games.    

  • [New York Times] Warriors Eliminate Denver With 92-88 Win in Game 6 (Fri, 03 May 2013 06:21:44 GMT)
    Draymond Green threw his arms in the air and ran to Golden State Warriors coach Mark Jackson for an emotional hug. Jarrett Jack squatted down, put his right hand on his head and closed his eyes. Stephen Curry wanted to see it all â?? teammates parading around the court, gold confetti in the air, smiles all around the announced sellout crowd of 19,596.    

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Nine Years Later, an Uncanny Echo (Fri, 03 May 2013 04:32:31 GMT)
    If the Celtics can win at home on Friday night, they will be one victory from matching what their baseball brethren accomplished nearly a decade ago, as unthinkable as that feat was.    

  • [New York Times] Nets 95, Bulls 92: Nets Beat Bulls to Even Series (Fri, 03 May 2013 04:32:16 GMT)
    Chicago gave the Nets all they could handle, scrapping until the last second, but the Nets prevailed, forging back from a three-games-to-one series deficit to force a Game 7.    

  • [New York Times] David Lee Returns for Warriors in Game 6 vs Denver (Fri, 03 May 2013 04:24:54 GMT)
    All-Star forward David Lee made a surprising return for the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night after not dressing the previous four games with what the team had called a season-ending hip injury.    

  • [New York Times] Game 6: Nets vs. Bulls (Fri, 03 May 2013 04:19:56 GMT)
    The Nets’ 95-92 victory means there will be a Game 7 in Brooklyn on Saturday night.    

  • [New York Times] Bulls, Depleted by Injuries, Are Also Playing Through Sickness (Fri, 03 May 2013 03:56:00 GMT)
    The Chicago Bulls were missing Kirk Hinrich with a bruised calf and Luol Deng to a virus. Two other players suited up despite battling their own illnesses.    

  • [New York Times] Nets Beat Bulls 95-92, Force Game 7 (Fri, 03 May 2013 03:54:58 GMT)
    Down and just about out, the Brooklyn Nets are suddenly on quite a roll.    

  • [New York Times] Warriors Coach Mark Jackson Fined $25,000 by NBA (Fri, 03 May 2013 01:45:45 GMT)
    The NBA fined Golden State coach Mark Jackson $25,000 on Thursday for making public comments in an attempt to influence the officiating in the Warriors’ playoff series with Denver.    

  • [New York Times] Analysis: What Next for Lakers After Tumultuous Season? (Fri, 03 May 2013 00:51:34 GMT)
    After enduring a roller-coaster season described by Hall of Famer Earvin ‘Magic’ Johnson as “one of the worst” in franchise history, Los Angeles Lakers fans are scratching their heads over what may happen next.    

  • [New York Times] On Pro Basketball: Knicks’ Fashion and Sense Went Their Own Ways (Fri, 03 May 2013 00:39:10 GMT)
    The Knicks arrived for Game 5 at Madison Square Garden dressed in black, a choice that bothered their coach, Mike Woodson.    

  • 75 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Friday, May 03 2013)

    1. Hubert Davis

      RuRu, sorry I couldn’t respond to any of your stuff last night. I’m a work time poster.

      Anyway, I’m open to being wrong on this thing and accepting what you and MeloDrama are putting forth, i.e. that the spike in isolation is solely a result in Boston’s devastating defense of our PnR. I don’t have synergy and usually go with my observations (and on Wed, they were from pretty high up at MSG and altered by intoxication). So I’ll keep an eye on this tonight.

      I have always given Boston a lot of the credit. I know statistically they force isolations more than any other team. But in my naked eye analysis, I see one trick that they pull repeatedly:

      Melo gets the ball on the wing with Felton the next nearest Knick at the top of the 3 point line and 2 other Knicks on the weakside perimeter and Tyson/Martin outside of the key on the weakside.

      The ball stops there.

      Boston guards him one on one while he’s behind the 3 point line. They have a defender ready to jump the lane if he passes to Felton.

      Sometimes, Melo has responded to this by attacking and drawing fouls, which has been the positive result.

      But a lot of times they send the double from the weakside as soon as he gets within the 3 point circle. And when he sees the double coming he rushes the long contested 2.

      I can’t site how many times I’ve seen this. I’m going from memory. I do know he has taken a lot of long two’s, and this is what I’ve meant about Melo being manipulated by the Celtic D.

    2. Mulligan

      Well, what do we think folks? Will this team figure it out or will I be drunk by noon on Sunday to brace myself for the inevitable collapse? Also, Celtics-Indiana would be an ugly ugly series.

    3. Hubert Davis

      I think we will win tonight unless the NBA rigs the game by sending an inexperienced officiating crew.

      I’m not remotely kidding, either. I believe this happens. It’s the same trick they pull in Serie A (the Italian soccer league) where there is much less money at stake.

      If we get a fair to mildly bad whistle, we win.

    4. RicanKnick

      I’m afraid of the bad whistles too…and I’m afraid of Melo not being able to handle the pressure. I don’t know how I’m going to work today…I’m nervous as Scooby Doo…

    5. Garson

      Not related… but was just thinking…

      Although westbrook is absouluty livid that hes stuck watching… he must be thankful for this deep in the back of his mind.

      He just traded one playoff year in exchange for a career of not hearing anymore
      ” westbrook should be shooting less” or “westbrook is taking shots away from durant” etc..

    6. stratomatic

      The Melo and JR apologists are having a tough time facing the facts.

      Defenses ALWAYS tighten up in the playoffs. So no one is expecting the “scorers” to exceed or even duplicate their exact eFG%, TS% etc… from the regular season. But we do expect them to not hold the ball for 10 seconds before making a move or pass, not jack up bad shots too early in the clock, and to make a respectable percentage of shots and FTs when the offense wins the possession or they get a good look.

      The Boston defense has always been tough. That’s not the issue. The issue is that on too many possessions our key players on offense are making bad CHOICES or missing good looks.

      It happens. Good players have bad games, bad streaks, make occasional bad decisions. However, when you have a justified reputation for this kind of thing going in, it’s on you to prove the critics wrong.

      Carmelo Marbury and JR Francis better show up tonight and play intelligent skilled basketball or we are at risk of game 7 becoming the ugliest day in NY basketball history.

    7. Zanzibar

      RIP Wins Produced
      Cause of Death: Traumatic injuries sustained from 3 successive Mile High falls
      Eulogy to be delivered by The Reverend Cock Jowles

      Twitterverse reactions starting to pour in:

      @LandryFields: Thanks a million guys..make that $20m

      @MeloAnthony: Ronnie and Corey’s WPs combined ain’t better than moi…#shotcreator

      @APBRmetrics: Yawn…#Junkscience

      @DennisRodman: Kim Jong-un agrees with me and WP – I was better than MJ

      @DBerri: You morons still just don’t get it…#forevemisunderstood

      @GeorgeKarl: My kingdom for a Ball Stopper

      @Owen: I’ve never been a WP48 bigot…#melohater

    8. Juany8

      Zanzibar:
      RIP Wins Produced
      Cause of Death: Traumatic injuries sustained from 3 successive Mile High falls
      Eulogy to be delivered by The Reverend Cock Jowles

      Twitterverse reactions starting to pour in:

      @LandryFields: Thanks a million guys..make that $20m

      @MeloAnthony: Ronnie and Corey’s WPs combined ain’t better than moi…#shotcreator

      @APBRmetrics: Yawn…#Junkscience

      @DennisRodman: Kim Jong-un agrees with me and WP – I was better than MJ

      @DBerri: You morons still just don’t get it…#forevemisunderstood

      @GeorgeKarl: My kingdom for a Ball Stopper

      @Owen: I’ve never been a WP48 bigot…#melohater

      Lmao! Pretty hilarious post Zanzibar, definitely made me laugh out loud at work.

    9. Juany8

      stratomatic:
      The Melo and JR apologists are having a tough time facing the facts.

      Defenses ALWAYS tighten up in the playoffs.So no one is expecting the “scorers” to exceed or even duplicate their exact eFG%, TS% etc… from the regular season. But we do expect them to not hold the ball for 10 seconds before making a move or pass, not jack up bad shots too early in the clock, and to make a respectable percentage of shots and FTs when the offense wins the possession or they get a good look.

      The Boston defense has always been tough. That’s not the issue. The issue is that on too many possessions our key players on offense are making bad CHOICES or missing good looks.

      It happens. Good players have bad games, bad streaks, make occasional bad decisions. However, when you have a justified reputation for this kind of thing going in, it’s on you to prove the critics wrong.

      Carmelo Marbury and JR Francis better show up tonight and play intelligent skilled basketball or we are at risk of game 7 becoming the ugliest day in NY basketball history.

      So why not wait until they actually lose to prove how much they suck? Do you realize how dumb these posts are gonna look if the a Knicks somehow do manage to knock off Miami? You’re absolutely right, if Melo and JR keep playing awful all playoffs and the Knicks lose, then that’s a massive stain on them. But why not wait until that happens before you try to prove how right you are? Look what happened with THCJ and Denver…

    10. d-mar

      We’re all guilty of changing our opinions of teams based on individual playoff performances. After game 1 of the Nets-Bulls, there was immediately discussion of a Nets-Heat series. After we went up 3-0 on Boston with probably our best performance of the season, there was a lot of “we can beat the Heat talk.” And now, after a miserable showing in game 5, we are suddenly seen as a bunch of immature playoff newbies who are being schooled by the rough, tough Celtics.

      If we had gone into game 5 tied 2-2 and won in MSG, we’d be in the exact same situation we are now, but no one would be ready to jump off a cliff. We all need to relax a little, take a deep breath and remember that we are a better team than Boston, and the first 3 games were more indicative of this matchup than the last 1. (and I don’t count game 4, as a lot of teams up 3-0 tend to mail it in the next game)

    11. yellowboy90

      I am looking at numerous occasions where Melo is just missing open guys on drives and posts up. He has to pass. He is drawing the extra man he needs to dump it off to Kenyon or Chandler. I want to see triple double Melo. He has it in him. It is time.

    12. Hubert Davis

      Jesus christ they assigned Bennett Salvatore.

      And of course they sent Joey Crawford to Memphis.

    13. Mulligan

      I don’t pay attention to the ref stuff – what’s Salvatore’s reputation. Also, is there a website that tracks trends in outcomes based on ref combinations? Should be pretty easy to do nowadays, no?

    14. Hubert Davis

      Bennett Salvatore is the guy who turned the 2006 Finals around by sending the Heat to the FT line 49 times in game 5.

      If you guys don’t pay attention to that stuff, so be it. We don’t have a chance tonight.

    15. Mulligan

      I’m sure others pay attention, but I only hear about refs when people complain about them, so what’s the point in distinguishing their unique brand of crappiness?
      But Joey Crawford is the only one who’s genuinely nuts, right?

    16. chrisk06811

      How do we not have a chance? We won the first 3, took game 4 to OT without our 2nd best scorer. We don’t have a chance because of who is refereeing?

      I found a stat….home teams won 60% of the games Salvatore ref’ed in 2012; avg margin is 4 pts. Of course, we won 56% of our road games, better than avg. Overall NBA home team win margin is 3.2 pts; so Salvatore’s games benefited the home team by less than a pt. That’s 1 more made free throw, or 1 less stupid technical.

      He calls on avg 40 fouls called per game, which is about average.

      Don’t get hung up on the refs is the point. If any of you run in to Melo or Chandler or JR, please tell that. Shut your mouth and get back on D.

    17. Juany8

      Hubert Davis:
      Bennett Salvatore is the guy who turned the 2006 Finals around by sending the Heat to the FT line 49 times in game 5.

      If you guys don’t pay attention to that stuff, so be it.We don’t have a chance tonight.

      It’s amazing how little people question the results of these sports leagues sometimes. We had freaking Tim Donahey fixing outcomes for gambling and yet even the most egregious refereeing gets swept aside as fans complaining. If you’re not at least a little paranoid of these things, you’re probably not paying attention. Professional sports have a ton of money involved….

    18. Hubert Davis

      Look guys. The NBA has two options:

      1. Have no programming on Sunday and make no money.

      2. Have half of New York and Boston glued to their TV sets and make a windfall in revenue.

      You want to think they put aside their corporate well being to ensure a fair game, god bless you. You probably shouldn’t invest in the stock market, by the way.

      This is their Ace crew for extending a series when they want a home team to win. The only chance we have is to beat the Celtics by 30.

    19. Hubert Davis

      chrisk06811:
      How do we not have a chance?We won the first 3, took game 4 to OT without our 2nd best scorer.We don’t have a chance because of who is refereeing?

      I found a stat….home teams won 60% of the games Salvatore ref’ed in 2012; avg margin is 4 pts.Of course, we won 56% of our road games, better than avg.Overall NBA home team win margin is 3.2 pts; so Salvatore’s games benefited the home team by less than a pt.That’s 1 more made free throw, or 1 less stupid technical.

      He calls on avg 40 fouls called per game, which is about average.

      Don’t get hung up on the refs is the point.If any of you run in to Melo or Chandler or JR, please tell that.Shut your mouth and get back on D.

      That’s meaningless.

      You can give a guy Charlotte home for Miami and he probably won’t screw it up.

      But these three officials tonight: Salvatore, Malloy, and Mauer, are among the lowest rated officials in the game.

      Leagues that are in involved in match fixing (most famously, Serie A in Italy) didn’t actually tell the refs to fix matches. They sent the worst rated refs to referee home games because they are easily swayed by the crowd.

      It’s match fixing. It happens. It’s happening tonight.

    20. JK47

      Whatever. The Knicks put themselves in this position. If they lose it’s their own fault, because there should have never been a Game 6 in the first place. There never should have been a Game 5.

      I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the refs are heavily biased towards Boston, but if you go out and take care of business when you should, you don’t have to worry about Bennett Salvatore stealing the series from you.

      Maybe if this team focused a little less on bullshit and a little more on basketball they wouldn’t be in this situation.

    21. Hubert Davis

      I guess I shouldn’t say we have no chance. The thing about assigning bad referees is there is always a chance they can be bad in the unintended direction. But between suspending JR, sending Joey Crawford to Game 5, and this, it’s been a stacked deck for three games.

    22. JK47

      Stacked deck? I just don’t see it.

      JR Smith violently hurled his elbows at Jason Terry’s face, because JR Smith is a head case who does stupid things. That ejection, suspension and Game 4 loss is on JR. In Game 5, the Knicks couldn’t score to save their lives and played an all-around terrible game. The Celtics didn’t need Joey Crawford’s help to kick the Knicks’ asses in that game.

    23. Hubert Davis

      Terry fucking flopped.

      If Kevin Garnett had thrown that elbow on JR, they would’ve called a foul on JR, not ejected and suspended KG.

    24. GHenman

      I’m so stressed right now, you would think I’m playing tonight. I can only imagine how much pressure Melo and JR must be feeling. It will be very interesting to see how they react. Also, when Kidd, Novak, and Prigs get open looks they have to shoot without hesitation. Make or miss I beleive this will get the offense going>

    25. Nick C.

      On the other hand Nate Robinson pretty much tackled CJ Watson into the scorers table. He got to keep playing the game and have the most fortuitous game of his life.

      As for the basketball I am confused by what I read here and in the paper. Woodson says they are staying on our shooters, others cite not running pick and roll or Boston shutting it down. Can it really be both is Boston’s defense that octopusian? I also read in the previous thread that Melo might play point forward to get better looks, despite what happened last year and that it was at the behest of his archenemy D’Antoni. I am either not to worry because the Knicks are the superior and/or Boston’s shots just happened to fall which is why they won. Which doesn’t comfort me because that turns it into a luck event to some extent.

      As for me I would like to see the offense initiated between 15-20 secnds on the clock or at least not with around ten left; no standing in place more than momentarily other than to box out or screen; awareness of where Jason terry is before the pass goes his way since his main skill is shooting threes and just smart focused basketball.

      If some suck shots go in for Boston and rim out for the Knicks well so be it. If it goes 2006 finals with the refs I may turn on the Mets. Otherwise, these are the same players that made many pretty giddy about their prospects. They have it in them or so I keep thinking to myself.

    26. mcliff05

      Hubert Davis: Just because you’re paranoid don’t mean they’re not after you.

      Lol. There will always be bad officiating, champions are mentally tough enough to have a short memory and get back on defense. I have knots in my stomach thinking about this game tonight but I still have a feeling that Melo will get. it. done.

      Then again Im the idiot who was waiting for Cano to come through in last years ALCS sooooo yeah, back to freaking out.

    27. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8: It’s amazing how little people question the results of these sports leagues sometimes. We had freaking Tim Donahey fixing outcomes for gambling and yet even the most egregious refereeing gets swept aside as fans complaining. If you’re not at least a little paranoid of these things, you’re probably not paying attention. Professional sports have a ton of money involved….

      Totally agreed. 2002 WCF was the end of the line for me. 2006 was even worse.

      http://www.82games.com/game5refs.htm

      Also, I think George Karl might be working for the league office.

    28. Mulligan

      It might be in the league’s best interest to have people watch game 7 on Sunday, but it’s also in their interest to have NY advance all the way to the finals. Or extend any of our last 2 playoff series longer than they’ve lasted. Believe me, Indiana-Boston will be unwatchable. You think the league wants that?

      Terry’s flop was egregious, but JR’s elbow was also egregious. He did a horrible job of hiding it and he knew it. At least don’t go for the head so obviously. There are plenty of ways to sneakily hurt a guy without getting suspended.

      I don’t doubt there’s a lot of money influencing the outcome of these games, but the question is whose money? You assume it’s the league, I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

    29. stratomatic

      Juany8: So why not wait until they actually lose to prove how much they suck? Do you realize how dumb these posts are gonna look if the a Knicks somehow do manage to knock off Miami? You’re absolutely right, if Melo and JR keep playing awful all playoffs and the Knicks lose, then that’s a massive stain on them. But why not wait until that happens before you try to prove how right you are? Look what happened with THCJ and Denver…

      I’m the guy that has a huge bet on the Knicks to win the series and thinks they are still between 80%-90% to win from here.

      I’m also the guy that has been a passionate Knicks fan since before most of the people here were born. :-)

      I just don’t allow my passions and fandom to interfere with my analysis of the team and players because I sometimes bet a lot of money on the games. That would be a bad combination. :-)

      My analysis of Melo and JR is what it is. We need them to play intelligently to win it all, but we should get past the Celtics either way because they are not a very good team. I think we will win unless Melo and JR play horribly for 2 more games (and I think there’s a 10%-15% chance of that).

    30. stratomatic

      Zanzibar:
      RIP Wins Produced
      Cause of Death: Traumatic injuries sustained from 3 successive Mile High falls
      Eulogy to be delivered by The Reverend Cock Jowles

      The Nuggets didn’t lose because Wins Produced evaluated the team or players incorrectly. They lost because:

      1. They don’t have enough good outside shooters. That becomes more critical in the playoffs. So the loss of Gallo was a devastating blow.

      2. Kenneth Faried was not 100%. He’s the most productive player on the team

      3. Win’s produced is evaluating players on a net basis for the whole season, which means home and away. The Nuggets are massively better at home. Once they lost home court in game 2 when Faried was a shell, they were in trouble because they were a slight underdog at Golden State.

      4. George Karl is a genius at getting the most out of his teams on offense by playing fast, focusing on getting the ball into the paint, not taking bad shots or long 2s etc… but he’s horrible at matchups and over thinks in the playoffs. He makes the same mistakes every year.

      When Lee went out for GS, he adjusted to GS’s small ball by going even smaller himself to match up. Theoretically that might make some sense if your small ball players are as productive as your Cs and PFs, but he was substituting very EV- players for very EV+ players. Wins Produced cannot determine that the coach will make significant mistake.

      5. One of Denver’s strengths in the regular season is their depth. Teams player shorter rotations & starters more minutes in the playoffs because there are no back to backs etc…

      WP in not perfect, but it’s way better than most of the mainstream alternatives. Most simply do not understand why.

    31. Hubert Davis

      Mulligan:
      It might be in the league’s best interest to have people watch game 7 on Sunday, but it’s also in their interest to have NY advance all the way to the finals. Or extend any of our last 2 playoff series longer than they’ve lasted. Believe me, Indiana-Boston will be unwatchable. You think the league wants that?

      Hence we will probably get a favorable whistle on Sunday.

      But I think you’re wrong about our impact on the ratings in future rounds. The league would do fine with Boston in the next round, and LeBron is a bigger draw than NY.

      I don’t really buy the large-market conspiracies. I do think the league desperately wants more games to sell advertising, though.

    32. stratomatic

      I don’t have a strong view on how much the “money, ratings, politics etc..” in basketball impacts the refereeing, but since it’s obvious it impacts boxing (for example) you would think it also has an impact in basketball – even if it isn’t on a conscious level.

    33. elikint

      Aging boston team, a shrewd defensive coach like Rivers, refs who call fouls or hate the Knicks — it all doesn’t matter. These are challenges but not serious ones. We all would see a second round out as a failure for the Knicks, and many of us a success only if they really pushed the Heat in the ECF. I’m zen about tonight and/or (hope not!) sunday. If they can’t win another game they’ve simply shown they would have failed anyway later in the playoffs — wasn’t meant to be.

      Go Knicks!

    34. Hubert Davis

      If anyone thinks the NBA is above this sort of thing, you’re probably the kind of person who is shocked to learn that there is less than 100% pure beef in your Big Mac.

    35. Frank

      For anyone that hasn’t read it yet, check out this 2 part series from HP and HoopChalk about our awful offense. For some reason hosted on two different sites:

      http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/05/03/drive-and-dish-inside-the-knicks-offense/

      http://hoopchalk.com/2013/05/03/inside-the-knicks-offense/

      Basically it says what we’ve all been saying — RUN THE FRICKIN’ PNR and then give to JR or Melo in iso if nothing happens.

      The other thing you see is that our center completely messes up the spacing on pretty much all of these examples. Chandler and K-Mart are standing at the elbow or even closer to the rim, allowing their center to stand in the paint waiting for Melo.

      Would be interesting to see if, in the absence of Novak (hopefully) tonight, we see Cope playing the 5 when KG is off the floor. Maybe some nice 5-out offense so they can’t load up the paint like they have been.

    36. johnlocke

      We better win tonight! That is all. If I have to see a Hitler parody on us losing in the first round, I might just give up sports.

      Hitler: Don’t worry, I bet on the Knicks, they are up 3-0 and no team in NBA history comes back from that! They win Game 4 for sure. It’s a sweep. They have Melo,, they have JR it’s over

      The captains: (awkward glances)…uhhh, sir, JR elbowed Terry and got suspended and Melo has missed twice as many shots as he’s made…JR did make 3 big threes….when the game was already over…

      ….TBC

    37. stratomatic

      Frank,

      I agree, spacing is an issue. We have so many offensively challenged “defensive specialists” playing at times, it’s tough. That’s why I have been complaining about building the team around just JR and Melo (and Felton) as scorers. Our entire offense is built around guys that have traditionally not been especially efficient and also prone to taking bad shots.

      But playing guys like Novak and Copeland is a huge tradeoff on the boards and defensively to get that better spacing.

    38. flossy

      Hubert Davis: The only chance we have is to beat the Celtics by 30.

      Sounds like a plan. We’re easily capable of laying a beat down on this Celtics team if our best players don’t show up chucking like drunks playing pop a shot at the corner bar.

    39. Juany8

      stratomatic: The Nuggets didn’t lose because Wins Produced evaluated the team or players incorrectly. They lost because:

      1. They don’t have enough good outside shooters.That becomes more critical in the playoffs. So the loss of Gallo was a devastating blow.

      2. Kenneth Faried was not 100%. He’s the most productive player on the team

      3. Win’s produced is evaluating players on a net basis for the whole season, which means home and away. The Nuggets are massively better at home. Once they lost home court in game 2 when Faried was a shell, they were in trouble because they were a slight underdog at Golden State.

      4. George Karl is a genius at getting the most out of his teams on offense by playing fast, focusing on getting the ball into the paint, not taking bad shots or long 2s etc… but he’s horrible at matchups and over thinks in the playoffs. He makes the same mistakes every year.

      When Lee went out for GS, he adjusted to GS’s small ball by going even smaller himself to match up. Theoretically that might make some sense if your small ball players are as productive as your Cs and PFs, but he was substituting very EV- players for very EV+ players. Wins Produced cannot determine that the coach will make significant mistake.

      5. One of Denver’s strengths in the regular season is their depth. Teams player shorter rotations & starters more minutes in the playoffs because there are no back to backs etc…

      WP in not perfect, but it’s way better than most of the mainstream alternatives. Most simply do not understand why.

      You’re ignoring that they lost to the worst team in the Western Conference. Even if they had won, they would have been destroyed by San Antonio. They were not a real contender, which was the case of all the anti WP people on this site. Contenders don’t make excuses for why they lost in the first round to a .500…

    40. flossy

      Hubert Davis:
      Terry fucking flopped.

      If Kevin Garnett had thrown that elbow on JR, they would’ve called a foul on JR, not ejected and suspended KG.

      Give me a break. Terry may have exaggerated the contact, but there’s absolutely no question JR Smith intentionally elbowed him in the face. The replay was crystal clear. Even JR Smith didn’t try to argue or deny it all–he was walking back to the locker room before Terry was even off the floor.

      KG playing dirty has nothing to do with anything. Are you actually surprised that HOF players get away with more of that stuff than a guy like JR, one of the league’s most notorious knuckleheads? Really? Do you think Bryon Russell could have pushed off on Jordan to make space for a game winner? That’s not how this league works.

      Instead of complaining that the sky is blue, the Knicks could try just keeping their composure and executing the game plan, for a change.

    41. steveoh

      If home teams win at a 60% clip in games that Bennett Salvatore referees, then it slightly helps us. This year, home teams won 61% of home games (752-477).

      But yep, his rep.

    42. stratomatic

      Juany8: You’re ignoring that they lost to the worst team in the Western Conference. Even if they had won, they would have been destroyed by San Antonio. They were not a real contender, which was the case of all the anti WP people on this site. Contenders don’t make excuses for why they lost in the first round to a .500…

      I don’t know anyone (WP or otherwise) that thought they were a serious contender vs a healthy SA, OKC, or MIA.

      They were roughly equal to LAC/MEM in the west and NY in the east which was why getting home court was so huge.

      Losing to GS was bad because they had home court and GS was the #6 team (IMO better than Boston though), but I don’t deal with the “emotions” of Denver vs. NY and Melo trade when evaluating the talent.

      IMO they lost to mildly inferior but pretty good team for the reasons I outlined. Long term they are very well positioned which is partly what that trade was about. The Nuggets have upside, an 5-10 year window, and the pieces to get better. The Knicks are do or die now or we rebuild in 2015.

    43. Juany8

      As far as WP being better than main stream alternatives, being better than PER isn’t saying much. And it’s debatable whether it even is better than PER. The only way there is an intelligent thought behind WP is if it’s all a big troll attempt/psychological experiment, the stat itself is a complete failure and proves it every year. It’s like they can’t imagine that regular season success doesn’t linearly translate to postseason success.

    44. Juany8

      stratomatic: I don’t know anyone (WP or otherwise) that thought they were a serious contender vs a healthy SA, OKC, or MIA.

      They were roughly equal to LAC/MEM in the west and NY in the east which was why getting home court was so huge.

      Losing to GS was bad because they had home court and GS was the #6 team (IMO better than Boston though), but I don’t deal with the “emotions” of Denver vs. NY and Melo trade when evaluating the talent.

      IMO they lost to mildly inferior but pretty good team for the reasons I outlined. Long term they are very well positioned which is partly what that trade was about. The Nuggets have upside, an 5-10 year window, and the pieces to get better. The Knicks are do or die now or we rebuild in 2015.

      Upside to what? golden state and OKC are better right now, and young enough to continue improving. Memphis and the Clippers also have a solid core that could play together for several years pretty easily. Houston has actual stats, cap space, and plenty of youth. The nuggets have done a spectacular job of setting themselves up for a second round ceiling every year. They’re the new version of the joe Johnson Atlanta hawks, only in the west.

    45. mcliff05

      I think Jordan Crawford screwed Boston. What happened after that KG-honey nut-bus stalking-debacle following a loss at MSG? We went up to Boston and BATTLED for a W. I could see the same unfolding tonight and it will come down to the last 2 minutes.

    46. Garson

      mcliff05:
      I think Jordan Crawford screwed Boston.What happened after that KG-honey nut-bus stalking-debacle following a loss at MSG?We went up to Boston and BATTLED for a W.I could see the same unfolding tonight and it will come down to the last 2 minutes.

      I never understood this concept of getting riled up from anyones comments, more-so from the 12th man off the bench.

      If these players cant get up for a playoff game without extra motiviation , then we have a serious problem.

    47. stratomatic

      Juany8: Upside to what? golden state and OKC are better right now, and young enough to continue improving. Memphis and the Clippers also have a solid core that could play together for several years pretty easily. Houston has actual stats, cap space, and plenty of youth. The nuggets have done a spectacular job of setting themselves up for a second round ceiling every year. They’re the new version of the joe Johnson Atlanta hawks, only in the west.

      Most of their players are young enough to keep improving and they have the flexibility and depth to make moves to fill in gaps in shooting etc….

      You can’t worry about the other teams.

      You either have to be good enough to win it all now if you are old (like the Knicks, but they aren’t), young and flexible enough to keep improving, or blow up the team and start over.

      Not everyone can have a James, Durant, Wade, etc..

      (and there’s no way in hell GS is better. They just happened to win a short series)

    48. yellowboy90

      Frank:
      For anyone that hasn’t read it yet, check out this 2 part series from HP and HoopChalk about our awful offense. For some reason hosted on two different sites:

      http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/05/03/drive-and-dish-inside-the-knicks-offense/

      http://hoopchalk.com/2013/05/03/inside-the-knicks-offense/

      Basically it says what we’ve all been saying — RUN THE FRICKIN’ PNR and then give to JR or Melo in iso if nothing happens.

      The other thing you see is that our center completely messes up the spacing on pretty much all of these examples.Chandler and K-Mart are standing at the elbow or even closer to the rim, allowing their center to stand in the paint waiting for Melo.

      Would be interesting to see if, in the absence of Novak (hopefully) tonight, we see Cope playing the 5 when KG is off the floor.Maybe some nice 5-out offense so they can’t load up the paint like they have been.

      I’ve been wondering why Cope wasn’t playing when Bass was at center since game 1.

    49. mcliff05

      Garson: I never understood this concept of getting riled up from anyones comments, more-so from the 12th man off the bench.If these players cant get up for a playoff game without extra motiviation , then we have a serious problem.

      I agree but it happens in sports all the time. If trash talk didnt motivate then coaches wouldnt care about giving their opponents bulletin board material.

    50. Juany8

      stratomatic: Most of their players are young enough to keep improving and they have the flexibility and depth to make moves to fill in gaps in shooting etc….

      You can’t worry about the other teams.

      You either have to be good enough to win it all now if you are old (like the Knicks, but they aren’t), young and flexible enough to keep improving, or blow up the team and start over.

      Not everyone can have a James, Durant, Wade, etc..

      (and there’s no way in hell GS is better. They just happened to win a short series)

      Bogut didn’t play all season, and lee didnt play in the playoffs, they’re going to keep getting better as long as those 2 stay healthy. Klay Thompson is also going to be sick, and they had several major players who were rookies this year. And of course Curry is better than anyone the nuggets are likely to get in the next 5 years, as is a healthy Bogut. Iguodala might not even stay past the season, and if he does that flexibility vanishes.

      Golden state has a lot more room to improve than the nuggets, and considering they won pretty easily this series I would say they are the better team right now. Denver would have had to play a ton better just to be close, and golden state was not at full strength. Gallinari isn’t king to change that much lol.

    51. mokers

      Golden State can improve, but it will be tough next year as they are still dealing with the Biedrins and Jefferson contracts and they are over the cap. As much as I like David Lee, he is not worth $15 million a year under this CBA…

      Oracle Arena is a fun place to watch though.

    52. yellowboy90

      I want Tyson-Bot to step up and shut down Garnett. I want to see a huge rebound game plus double digit points.

    53. Hubert Davis

      I, too, like the idea of Cope at the 5 if our offense starts getting bogged down in Isolation.

      F Melo
      F Smith/Shumpert
      C Copeland
      G Felton
      G Kidd/Prigioni

      is worth a shot.

      It’s better than settling for long 2′s. You give up rebounding, potentially, but they don’t rebound.

    54. mcliff05

      Hubert Davis: I, too, like the idea of Cope at the 5 if our offense starts getting bogged down in Isolation.F MeloF Smith/ShumpertC CopelandG FeltonG Kidd/Prigioniis worth a shot. It’s better than settling for long 2?s. You give up rebounding, potentially, but they don’t rebound.

      I get the concept of what you’re trying to attain but isnt this the lineup we started when everyone was hurt at the end of the year and we were freaking out that Cope was at center?

      Personally I would like to see Kmart start and Chandler come off the bench. Kmart seems a step quicker and better on switching. Chandlers PnR game might be more effective with Garnett on the bench.

    55. DRed

      Juany8: You’re ignoring that they lost to the worst team in the Western Conference. Even if they had won, they would have been destroyed by San Antonio. They were not a real contender, which was the case of all the anti WP people on this site. Contenders don’t make excuses for why they lost in the first round to a .500…

      The kobe-less Lakers were the worst team in the WC playoffs. By a country mile. Getting Bogut back makes up for losing Lee. Denver should have won, but I don’t see it as a huge upset. George Karl doesn’t lose in the first round so often by accident

    56. jon abbey

      yeah, a big game from Tyson against Garnett would be welcome. as great as Garnett is, the last three games were the first time he had three straight 17+ rebound games since 2006. that is at least somewhat on Tyson.

    57. Hubert Davis

      mcliff05: I get the concept of what you’re trying to attain but isnt this the lineup we started when everyone was hurt at the end of the year and we were freaking out that Cope was at center?

      I wasn’t freaking out when it was killing people.

      Remember the Pacers game when Melo & JR were bogging us down and every time we threw Cope in we went on a tear?

    58. Juany8

      DRed: The kobe-less Lakers were the worst team in the WC playoffs. By a country mile. Getting Bogut back makes up for losing Lee. Denver should have won, but I don’t see it as a huge upset. George Karl doesn’t lose in the first round so often by accident

      Lol I forgot they existed. Such a sad waste of talent…

    59. Brian Cronin

      Bill Simmons answered a question I was wondering about this. Tonight is only the SECOND time EVER that there has been four Game 6s on a single night.

      If it makes everyone feel better, the last time it happened was in 2003 and all four of the teams closed out the series that night. Let’s hope that the bodes well for the Knicks tonight!

    60. Nick C.

      er: good lawd were they.

      Can you believe they were the Sports Illustrated cover team. Not that means anything but still quite a drop.

    61. er

      Brian Cronin:
      Bill Simmons answered a question I was wondering about this. Tonight is only the SECOND time EVER that there has been four Game 6s on a single night.

      If it makes everyone feel better, the last time it happened was in 2003 and all four of the teams closed out the series that night. Let’s hope that the bodes well for the Knicks tonight!

      All of the 3 win teams are on the road accept memphis which will def add to the intrigue

    62. er

      er: All of the 3 win teams are on the road accept memphis which will def add to the intrigue

      except *

    63. Tony Pena

      Hubert Davis: Jesus christ they assigned Bennett Salvatore. And of course they sent Joey Crawford to Memphis.

      I hear ya, but really not worth stressing about. Might as well not watch.

    64. mcliff05

      Hubert Davis: I wasn’t freaking out when it was killing people. Remember the Pacers game when Melo & JR were bogging us down and every time we threw Cope in we went on a tear?

      Vaguely but thats only because the perception going into that game was that without Tyson and kmart, Hibbert and West would destroy us (and that was an important game to clinch the 2 seed). When Cope actually came in and went crazy it was surprising (at least to me). While I was ecstatic about the result, Copes and the team’s performance with such the smallest of small lineups seemed fortunate instead of a revelation.

      I do think we need more Cope tho, hopefully with Novak out he can prove to be ready for the moment.

    65. Hubert Davis

      RuRu I respect you a lot but I respect Zach Lowe more and I don’t think he’s the wrong hands Synergy fell into:

      http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/60957/game-6-madness-the-keys-to-a-killer-night-of-playoff-basketball

      Also, Seth Rosenthal did a nice piece that refutes the claim of you and MeloDrama that we’re running forced isolations mostly:

      http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2013/5/3/4293820/knickstape-the-unfortunate-truth-behind-isolations-knicks-celtics#comments

    66. Will the Thrill

      Yeah, I had a real suspicion that most of those isolations were actually designed to be isolation plays just by the alarming numbers. It seems like running more isolation plays is just part of our game plan in the playoffs, regardless of the defensive intensity/schemes from the other team.

      Hubert Davis: Also, Seth Rosenthal did a nice piece that refutes the claim of you and MeloDrama that we’re running forced isolations mostly:

      http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2013/5/3/4293820/knickstape-the-unfortunate-truth-behind-isolations-knicks-celtics#comments

        

    67. max fisher-cohen

      Regarding the Wins Produced drama from the last thread, I think that Wins Produced was really relevant when it first came out 7 years ago in the wake of the pistons’ championship. This was a time when you still had a lot of very bad WP players making a ton of money — Allen Iverson (69th by WP), Stephon Marbury (131st by WP), Steve Francis (120th), Eddy Curry (205th), Vin Baker (335th), Jalen Rose (223rd), Tim Thomas, Boozer, Zach Randolph… Maurice Taylor was making $9.1m and was LAST in the league in Wins Produced. I could keep going. All these guys were WAY overpaid, mostly because they scored a lot of points and most of their teams were dramatically underperforming.

      Then on the other hand you had guys like Billups, Ben Wallace, Shane Battier, Lamar Odom and Manu Ginobili who were making a fraction of what these so called stars were making. Even if Wins Produced was overvaluing certain skills and could be gamed by certain style players, it was also very effective at picking out the kind of players who, back then, GMs were way UNDERvaluing.

      That has changed a lot in the last seven years. If the 28 year old Shane Battier was a free agent today, you can bet he’d get a contract for way more than $5.8m/year. Billups, ridiculously, was making roughly the same amount that year. Wallace, despite being probably the most dominant defensive force since Olajuwon or maybe Mutombo, was only making $7.5m. Those sorts of values just aren’t out there any more. Teams have wised up.

      I wish someone would make a metric that took into account the likely free agent value of a player. That would be cool.

    68. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      max fisher-cohen: Teams have wised up.

      I don’t know if this is true. Chris Paul for Eric Gordon (“But they score the same number of points!”), Rudy Gay on a max contract, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings in the same backcourt, Austin Rivers being in the NBA. There are a lot of bad contract decisions being made still. Maybe not as badly as in the early Aughts, but it’s still bad.

      Here are the top players according to WP (total) this season:

      Durant
      James
      Paul
      Harden
      Chandler

      (That’s a 72+ win team, right there.)

      Ibaka
      Curry
      Noah
      Conley
      Wade

      (Another All-NBA team.)

      Kirilenko
      Butler
      Faried
      Sefolosha
      Marion
      Calderon
      Johnson
      Batum
      Iguodala
      Gasol, Marc
      George
      Hickson
      Hill
      Duncan
      Evans
      Kidd
      Griffin
      Bryant
      Lee

    69. max fisher-cohen

      TCHJ, I agree that there are still dumb teams and dumb contracts and guys who are way overvalued (Rudy Gay, anyone?), just that they’re not nearly as dumb, making WP’s warts more glaring. Its focus on possessions and efficiency still has something to add to the conversation, but some of those things have been absorbed by the less stupid teams in the league.

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