Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Friday, Jun 14 2013)

  • [New York Times] Heat Even NBA Finals With Spurs After 109-93 Win (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 07:20:43 GMT)
    LeBron James wanted the responsibility on his powerful shoulders.    

  • [New York Times] Game 4: Heat 109, Spurs 93: With an Old-Fashioned Rout, the Heat Make It a New Series (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 06:57:33 GMT)
    LeBron James reclaimed his form and Dwyane Wade reasserted his will over his battered body, lifting the Heat over the Spurs and tying the N.B.A. finals at 2-2.    

  • [New York Times] Heat Capitalize on Costly Turnovers to Take Shine Off Spurs (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 06:17:17 GMT)
    The San Antonio Spurs’ hopes of taking a stranglehold on the NBA Finals were dashed by a slew of costly turnovers in Thursday’s Game Four loss to the Miami Heat.    

  • [New York Times] Big Three Power Heat to Series-Tying Win Over Spurs (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:44:17 GMT)
    With their backs against the wall and hopes of repeating as champions fading, the Miami Heat’s Big Three used a dominating performance to beat the San Antonio Spurs 109-93 on Thursday and even the NBA Finals at 2-2.    

  • [New York Times] Game 4: Heat vs. Spurs (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:41:15 GMT)
    LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh used a dominant performance to help Miami get even with San Antonio at two games each.    

  • [New York Times] King James Returns to Regal Best in Search of Second Crown (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:29:17 GMT)
    LeBron James delivered on a promise to improve his play with a sterling performance in Game Four of the NBA Finals on Thursday, breathing new life into a Miami Heat team that two days ago looked ready to roll over.    

  • [New York Times] Wade Finds Touch When Heat Needed It Most (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:14:35 GMT)
    Trying to guard Dwyane Wade proved impossible for Tiago Splitter. Same goes for Boris Diaw.    

  • [New York Times] Parker Fades After Strong Start in Game 4 Loss (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:14:30 GMT)
    Tony Parker made good on his pledge before Game 4 of the NBA Finals: He was ready to go.    

  • [New York Times] Big 3 Help Heat Even NBA Finals With Spurs (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 04:04:05 GMT)
    LeBron James was better as promised. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were the best they’ve been since the playoffs started.    

  • [New York Times] LeBron Inspires Heat to Series-Tying Win Over Spurs (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:59:17 GMT)
    LeBron James had a game-high 33 points and the Miami Heat beat the San Antonio Spurs 109-93 on Thursday to even the best-of-seven NBA Finals series at 2-2.    

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Nets Owner Calls Jason Kidd a Born Coach (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:15:02 GMT)
    After a news conference on Thursday announcing that he would not run for mayor of Moscow in the fall, Mikhail D. Prokhorov, the Nets’ owner, also said that there was a shortage of N.B.A. coaches with star power.    

  • [New York Times] On Pro Basketball: Nets Couldn’t Pass Up Hiring of Kidd (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:08:14 GMT)
    Despite his lack of coaching experience, Jason Kidd is sure to generate excitement the Nets desperately need.    

  • [New York Times] Miami, San Antonio Tied 49-49 at Halftime of Game Four (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 02:35:20 GMT)
    The San Antonio Spurs used an 11-2 run in the final three minutes to head into halftime of Game Four of the NBA Finals tied 49-49 with the Miami Heat.    

  • [New York Times] Heat Change Game 4 Lineup, Miller In for Haslem (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 00:42:04 GMT)
    The Miami Heat have changed their starting lineup for Game 4 of the NBA Finals, with Mike Miller opening the game at forward and Udonis Haslem coming off the bench.    

  • [New York Times] A Veteran Player Introduces Himself As a Rookie Coach (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 00:25:03 GMT)
    Introduced Thursday, Nets Coach Jason Kidd inherits a team that went through two coaches last season and fizzled in the playoffs.    

  • [New York Times] Wade Still Looking for Complete NBA Finals Game (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 00:20:40 GMT)
    There have been times in these NBA Finals that Dwyane Wade has looked like the Dwyane Wade of old, attacking the rim, dropping the unblockable floater in the lane and jumpstarting the Miami Heat offense.    

  • [New York Post] Kidd’s retirement call mother of all surprises (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:30:39 -0500)
    Sometimes “Mother knows best,” and Jason Kidd’s mom wanted her son to stick it out and play at least one more season for the Knicks.Anne Kidd told The Post yesterday at Kidd’s introductory press conference in Brooklyn she was shocked when the future Hall of Famer informed…

  • [New York Daily News] Georgetown great Ewing: I passed on UNC due to KKK rally (Fri, 14 Jun 2013 03:40:14 GMT)
    Patrick Ewing, a North Carolina Tar Heel? Hard to imagine, we know. But when you hear the Georgetown legend’s reasoning for not picking the Tar Heels, it would be hard to knock him for not teaming up with Michael Jordan.    

  • 63 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Friday, Jun 14 2013)

    1. SeeWhyDee77

      Jason Kidd…awkward..but congrats an good luck to him tho. I had hoped Woodson would have been able to find room for him on his staff.

    2. Hubert

      He’s either going to be fired before the season is over, or someone is going to convince Prokorov that he needs to be patient with a new coach, in which case he’ll be fired before next season is over.

      That team is extremely mediocre and the owner has championship aspirations. It’s a really bad combination when you’re setting expectations for your coach.

    3. yellowboy90

      Kidd contracts seems a little high for a first time coach. Is that the going rate?

    4. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland: If it’s not in the box score, it’s not useful data. That is what your argument boils down to EVERY SINGLE FUCKING TIME.

      No. This is not my argument.

      I claim that individuals are responsible for their own production. When Danny Green hits a wide-open three, I’m not going to first ask, “Did Carmelo Anthony help him make that shot?”

      So when I see someone like Faried get looked over because his box score stats are being diminished through “expert analysis,” I get a little agitated.

      I don’t think that all stats are the outcome of individual performance. Chris Paul, for instance: does he get that many assists because his teammates are good shooters or because he puts them in a good position to score or because he spends a lot of possessions passing (volume assisting, essentially)?

      I do think that it is better to select someone with a a good box score than a person without. Is that really so hard to understand? Massive summed it up in the last thread.

    5. thenamestsam

      I know everybody loves to hate the Heat and I can’t blame them, but I have really come to respect this team. Two years ago when the chips were down, they completely folded. Part of it was that they hadn’t evolved their style as a team yet, but there was also definitely part that they really didn’t have the stomach for it (outside of Wade). But they’ve completely changed as a team. The way they respond when their backs are against the wall is truly impressive. They’re clearly banged up, they’re not playing their best ball, but put them in a must-win game and they couldn’t look further from the team who rolled over against Dallas. 6 losses in the playoffs and they’ve won the 6 following games by an average margin of over 20 points a game. If the Spurs are going to do it they’re going to have to earn it 100%.

      For a series with only one really close game so far it’s been pretty damn fun. The level of play is really high. Some of the shots both teams were making last night were crazy. Neal hit two ridiculous threes, that Parker layup at the end of the 1st half, the whole series of Wade floaters in the post. I’m hoping we’re heading for 7 here.

    6. Juany8

      Just to respond to THCJ’s post, when Danny green hits a 3, he says it’s because Parker/ginobli/Parker drew away the defender to give him the open space to get off a clean look. There are far more players capable of hitting the open 3 than there are players capable of drawing defenders away from good 3 point shooters. Since the box score does not really track this in any meaningful way (assists are probably the least accurate stat in the box score) that means that the box score is almost completely ignoring the most important part of any good offensive possession, creating space for an open shot. All the pick and rolls, cuts, and drives are all apperently worthless, the only thing that matters is whether Danny green made the 3 point shot and who passed it to him.

      If you believe that A 3 from Danny green is a good outcome for an offensive possession, you need to surround him with players that can get him open 3′s to shoot. And those are the players the intelligent basketball minds pay top dollar for. The stupider basketball minds think points scored and total assists is a good proxy for shot creation, so they give monta Ellis $12 million a year. You use the silly straw man that basketball experts are stupid because of the monta contract, but even casual fans know Isaiah Thomas was an idiot. It’s the SMART basketball experts you pay attention to, because when Greg poppovich treats Melo like an offensive super star and leaves Steve Novak open to give extra help, it sends a strong message that Carmelo Anthony is a better offensive player than Novak, or really anyone else on the team. Good luck convincing anyone that your system is better at analyzing basketball than Greg poppovich

    7. d-mar

      @5 I agree, this has been a very entertaining series from the start, with a lot of interesting story lines. The great thing about sports is its unpredictability, the consensus after game 3 was that Wade was shot and LeBron would have to carry the team on his back, And then Wade goes out and reverse ages and puts up one of his best performances in years.

      Game 5 is obviously a must win for the Spurs, and it would be nice for Manu to show up, they need his offense desperately.

    8. Juany8

      With regard to Kidd, honestly if you had taken a poll before the season ended, most people would have said that Kidd would make a great coach one day. The timing is a little weird and Brooklyn is the kind of team that goes for splashy names, but he’ll probably be a good coach at some point. Just think it’s gonna be weird to have him coaching players he was very recently playing against, or even with depending on how the off season turns out.

    9. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: I claim that individuals are responsible for their own production. When Danny Green hits a wide-open three, I’m not going to first ask, “Did Carmelo Anthony help him make that shot?”

      It would be pretty weird if Carmelo Anthony helped Danny Green hit 3 pointers. Tony Parker, on the other hand…

    10. thenamestsam

      d-mar:

      Game 5 is obviously a must win for the Spurs, and it would be nice for Manu to show up, they need his offense desperately.

      Yeah for all the attention that has been focused on Miami’s big-3 (as it always is) the Spurs big 3 have struggled to a certain extent as well. Parker hit the huge shot in Game 1 and his penetration has been a big factor at times to set up the 3s, but he’s averaging less than 15 points a game, and Duncan has struggled with is offensive game as well despite doing good work on the glass and on D. And Manu has been almost comically bad at times – fumbling the ball, dribbling. -36 for the series overall. Spurs have been getting their normal amazing contributions from role players but they’re probably going to need the stars to step it up a bit to win a clincher in Miami. Who’s on track to be finals MVP for them if they win? Green?

    11. marechal

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      I claim that individuals are responsible for their own production. When Danny Green hits a wide-open three, I’m not going to first ask, “Did Carmelo Anthony help him make that shot?”

      This is like giving credit for RBIs. You basically disregard the sequence of events that occurred prior to the thing you are measuring (hitting an open basket, getting a hit with a man on base).

    12. Hubert

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      I claim that individuals are responsible for their own production. When Danny Green hits a wide-open three, I’m not going to first ask, “Did Carmelo Anthony help him make that shot?”

      It comes down to what are you using the information for.

      If you simply want to know how a player performed, then the above statement is enough to go by.

      But if you’re attempting to determine if the way a player performed is indicative of how you can expect him to perform going forward, you do need to know more.

      Keeping with the Danny Green example, if you’re a GM of a team, you can’t simply look at how Danny Green performed, pay him at a rate based on that, and then put him in an entirely different system in which he will never get open looks and expect him to perform the way he did in the Spurs’ system.

      Would you argue otherwise?

    13. massive

      flossy:

      Being able to block a lot of shots when you’re far and away the most athletic player on the court is not impressive when you have no grasp of defensive fundamentals.I don’t see Mike Woodson having the patience for a 6’9? version of JaVale McGee who is in love with shooting jump shots.At least Josh Smith turned into a pretty smart defender–we don’t have five years to wait to see if Tony Mitchell ever gets it.

      From what I’ve seen of Mitchell, he’s not just the opportunist weak-side shot-blocker that an Amar’e Stoudemire is. He holds his ground well on the low block and gets blocks over defenders who end up having to force shots over him (because of his already good defense on the play).

      Maybe I overstated his defense, but I think it’s unfair to compare our situation to Josh Smith’s in Atlanta. For one, there were no Tyson Chandlers or Kenyon Martins on that roster. Those two (if K-Mart is brought back) will be a great influence on Mitchell because they can teach him how to play the game from the defensive side of the ball. Secondly, Josh Smith came into this league as a small forward. That’s why Josh Smith likes to play the perimeter so much; they told him he was a perimeter player from Day 1. The same thing happen There will be no debating about where Tony Mitchell will play in the NBA; he’s a four.

      I think the Knicks would be the best situation in the NBA for Mitchell. We give him the best chance to learn from vets and be successful early on in a limited role.

    14. massive

      Oh, and in sorta disappointing news, the Knicks are interested in Will Bynum. Bynum is essentially another Raymond Felton, and he may or may not take Prigioni’s roster spot.

      I want nothing to do with Bynum. Especially if it costs us Prigioni.

    15. lavor postell

      massive:
      Oh, and in sorta disappointing news, the Knicks are interested in Will Bynum. Bynum is essentially another Raymond Felton, and he may or may not take Prigioni’s roster spot.

      I want nothing to do with Bynum. Especially if it costs us Prigioni.

      I’d be fine splitting our mini mid-level between Prigioni and Bynum actually.

    16. lavor postell

      If that was enough money to get it done. I do agree though in that I’d definitely rather have Prigioni than Bynum if it came down to one or the other.

    17. johnno

      I’ve been thinking about whether the Knicks should try to pick up a 2nd round pick in the draft and I think that, if they can pick one up on the cheap and there is someone available that they really want, they should go for it. If not, they shouldn’t bother. Two reasons for my thinking — first, in the last few years, they’ve been able to pick up guys who none of us had ever heard of who turned out to be more useful than most second round picks (Mozgov, Copeland, Prigioni — maybe someone like Gani Lawal this year?) and second, they’ve got four guys on their Summer League team — Henry Sims, Jerome Jordan, Tony Mitchell and Toure Miller — who might be worth having on the team instead of anyone who might be available in the second round.

    18. Vinny L.

      Wow. There’s a lot of potential sleepers that can be bought with the Knicks million dollar TPE in the 2nd round draft:

      PG

      Nate Wolters 
      Pierre Jackson
      Isaiah Canaan
      Ray McCallum

      SG

      Erick Green
      Ricky Ledo
      Khalif Wyatt
      B.J. Young

      SF

      Deshaun Thomas
      James Ennis

      PF

      Elias Harris
      Jackie Charmichael
      Robert Covington

      C

      Mike Muscala
      Brandon Davies
      Jack Cooley

    19. flossy

      massive: From what I’ve seen of Mitchell, he’s not just the opportunist weak-side shot-blocker that an Amar’e Stoudemire is. He holds his ground well on the low block and gets blocks over defenders who end up having to force shots over him (because of his already good defense on the play).

      Well sure, I would hope he’d hold his ground against the vastly inferior athletes in his sad little conference.

      When a player’s scouting report includes multiple mentions of poor effort, inconsistent focus and lack of understanding of the basic fundamentals of man to man defense, that should be enough to merit a pass. I don’t see the point in a team that wants to contend using a roster spot on an athlete that’s going to need to learn how to play basketball. Mitchell has “Anthony Randolph pt. 2″ written all over him and the Knicks don’t have time for that.

    20. flossy

      massive:
      Oh, and in sorta disappointing news, the Knicks are interested in Will Bynum. Bynum is essentially another Raymond Felton, and he may or may not take Prigioni’s roster spot.

      I want nothing to do with Bynum. Especially if it costs us Prigioni.

      Bynum is an atrocious defender (his teams are a 4.3 pts/100 worse on defense for his career when he’s on the court; it was 4.6 last season) and an even worse shooter than Felton. If we’re going that route, I’d rather we sweet talk Nate Robinson back here (and I don’t even particularly want that).

    21. massive

      flossy:
      I don’t see the point in a team that wants to contend using a roster spot on an athlete that’s going to need to learn how to play basketball.Mitchell has “Anthony Randolph pt. 2? written all over him and the Knicks don’t have time for that.

      I see your point. He’s a project player, but the Anthony Randolph comparison doesn’t make sense here. Randolph came into the league believing he was a small forward. He was too skinny to play the 4, so he played the 3. Tony Mitchell will be a power forward from day 1 unless some idiot of a head coach decides otherwise. That was a big problem for players like Josh Smith and Anthony Randolph; teams fell in love with their athleticism and put them in positions they weren’t suited for because of their measurables. I think he’ll have a really good career if he goes into the right situation. Like how Javale McGee became a valuable player on the Nuggets instead of the waste of ability he was in Washington.

    22. massive

      flossy: Bynum is an atrocious defender (his teams are a 4.3 pts/100 worse on defense for his career when he’s on the court; it was 4.6 last season) and an even worse shooter than Felton.If we’re going that route, I’d rather we sweet talk Nate Robinson back here (and I don’t even particularly want that).

      I’d rather we skip the point guards entirely this offseason (after we re-sign Prigioni). We have a serviceable PG in Felton and a good one in Prigioni. We’ll have 48 minutes of competent play every night, so there is no need to go out of our way to pay a bad player at that position.

    23. Vinny L.

      I’d take Darren Collison, Will Bynum, Pierre Jackson (Baylor), Isaiah Canaan (Murray State), and Erick Green (Virginia Tech) over Prig.

    24. johnno

      massive: Like how Javale McGee became a valuable player on the Nuggets instead of the waste of ability he was in Washington.

      Go to a Nuggets website and read what Nuggets fans think of JaVale McGee. I read one article that basically said good riddance to the GM because he left the team saddled with an albatross like him.

    25. massive

      And in other bad news, CP3 and D12 want to partner up, and Atlanta is the supposed destination.

      We need to help Dallas or Houston clear cap space immediately, because we could realistically be the 5th best team in the conference if that happens.

    26. massive

      johnno: Go to a Nuggets website and read what Nuggets fans think of JaVale McGee.I read one article that basically said good riddance to the GM because he left the team saddled with an albatross like him.

      I don’t really listen to what fans think. Warriors fans booed management/ownership when they traded Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut. McGee is a very productive player when on court, so the boneheaded possessions are worth living with.

    27. Vinny L.

      The ultimate prize to for getting rid of Prig is Nate Robinson of course. .. But Bynum gets you 10-points and four assists per in just 20 minutes!

      That’s great coming off the bench for Felton.

    28. flossy

      massive: I see your point. He’s a project player, but the Anthony Randolph comparison doesn’t make sense here. Randolph came into the league believing he was a small forward. He was too skinny to play the 4, so he played the 3. Tony Mitchell will be a power forward from day 1 unless some idiot of a head coach decides otherwise. That was a big problem for players like Josh Smith and Anthony Randolph; teams fell in love with their athleticism and put them in positions they weren’t suited for because of their measurables. I think he’ll have a really good career if he goes into the right situation. Like how Javale McGee became a valuable player on the Nuggets instead of the waste of ability he was in Washington.

      That’s not really true–Randolph has played everywhere from 3-5 in his career and has failed across the board because he doesn’t have two brain cells to rub together. You may say Tony Mitchell is a pure 4, but that will probably come as a surprise to him since he took four 3 point attempts per 40 (making only 29% of them) last season and seems like the quintessential tweener forward who is perfectly content to loaf around on the perimeter and taking stupid jump shots.

      I agree that JaVale McGee is the kind of of career trajectory is what one might expect from Mitchell, but I think that would be an unmitigated disaster. McGee has been in the league five years and STILL sucks. Far from being a valuable contributor on the Nuggets, he was benched in favor of Kosta Koufous, probably because Koufos knows how to play basketball and JaVale McGee only knows how to chase blocks and dunk. The Nuggets were significantly worse both offensively and defensively with McGee on the court this season, so he has nothing to be proud of and I wouldn’t hold him up as an example of what might happen if Tony Mitchell pans out.

    29. flossy

      massive: I’d rather we skip the point guards entirely this offseason (after we re-sign Prigioni). We have a serviceable PG in Felton and a good one in Prigioni. We’ll have 48 minutes of competent play every night, so there is no need to go out of our way to pay a bad player at that position.

      I agree. Although this sort of depends on the Amar’e/K-Mart platoon holding up at the PF spot, Shumpert sliding back down to the 2 and the Knicks not doing the two PG/Melo at the 4 look as much next season.

    30. Frank

      Vinny L.:
      I’d take Darren Collison, Will Bynum, Pierre Jackson (Baylor), Isaiah Canaan (Murray State), and Erick Green (Virginia Tech) over Prig.

      who are you and how did you come to this board? and how did you come up with this random collection of names? Darren Collison? A guy who was so bad that Dallas signed a 74 year old Derek Fisher to start over him? And how does signing or not signing Prigioni affect us getting these 2nd round PGs at all?

    31. johnno

      massive: I don’t really listen to what fans think.

      What about what George Karl apparently thinks? He saw fit to play his $10 million a year center a grand total of 18 minutes a game, and NEVER with the game on the line.

    32. Hubert

      Vinny L.:
      I’d take Darren Collison, Will Bynum, Pierre Jackson (Baylor), Isaiah Canaan (Murray State), and Erick Green (Virginia Tech) over Prig.

      I feel like dogrufus found his way back onto knickerblogger.

    33. Hubert

      massive:
      And in other bad news, CP3 and D12 want to partner up, and Atlanta is the supposed destination.

      That makes a TON of sense and I’ve thought that would happen since they dumped Joe Johnson.

      Paul, Howard, Horford, Korver, Williams…that’s a good lineup.

    34. Frank

      Wow – Iguodala opted out of his contract according to Woj. Considering they lost their coach and GM, Gallo will likely be out for a good portion of the year…. wow. Denver was a straight-up BAD defensive team when Iggy was off the floor. I guess it’s possible they resign him (or S&T him).

    35. yellowboy90

      I think Denver president has made Iggy his priority FA. So I feel an overpay coming on.

    36. Juany8

      Frank:
      Wow – Iguodala opted out of his contract according to Woj. Considering they lost their coach and GM, Gallo will likely be out for a good portion of the year…. wow. Denver was a straight-up BAD defensive team when Iggy was off the floor. I guess it’s possible they resign him (or S&T him).

      Iggy was always going to opt out if healthy so that’s not a surprise, but if he’s expecting $15 million a year…. Nuggets could end up capped out with an iron clad second round ceiling. And there are still people on this board that don’t like the Melo trade lol.

    37. thenamestsam

      flossy:

      I agree that JaVale McGee is the kind of of career trajectory is what one might expect from Mitchell, but I think that would be an unmitigated disaster.

      Don’t have a strong opinion on Javale McGee, but I think your comment does highlight how unrealistic fans expectations are for this pick. A pick in the mid-20s in a weak draft is just not that valuable. If the Knicks get a guy who has any kind of real NBA career, that’s a solid pick at this spot. JaVale has significant flaws, but he plays significant minutes for a high 50 win team and produces in those minutes. I don’t have any opinion on Mitchell, but if the Knicks pick a guy who has a career as good as JaVale’s that would be an exceptional pick.

      In the last 10 years the best 24th overall picks are: Ibaka, Lowry and then it falls off immediately to guys like Delonte West, BJ Mullens, and Reggie Jackson. 23rd overall is Tayshaun, Wilson Chandler, Koufos and then Francisco Garcia I guess. 25th overall is Batum, Tony Allen, Beaubois. Out of 30 picks that’s about 3 very good players, another 4-5 who are solid bench players/ weak starters and then an immediate fall off to weak bench players and out of the league type guys.

      There’s probably a ~10% chance we get a guy who ends up being really good, ~20% chance we get something useful and a ~70% chance we get a dud. Knicks fans expectations are completely out of wack here.

    38. thenamestsam

      Juany8: Iggy was always going to opt out if healthy so that’s not a surprise, but if he’s expecting $15 million a year…. Nuggets could end up capped out with an iron clad second round ceiling. And there are still people on this board that don’t like the Melo trade lol.

      Devil’s advocate:

      A. Aren’t we capped out with a second round ceiling?
      B. Question A is a stupid question because comparing the fates of the two teams after the trade is a really dumb way to judge the trade. The two teams were not choosing from the same decision set at all. Denver’s choice was not keep Melo or trade Melo. It was let Melo walk or trade Melo to NY or NJ. Arguing over whether we gave up more than we got would only be relevant if Denver had actually been making a choice between the players they gave up and the players they got back. They weren’t.

    39. johnno

      thenamestsam: There’s probably a ~10% chance we get a guy who ends up being really good, ~20% chance we get something useful and a ~70% chance we get a dud. Knicks fans expectations are completely out of wack here.

      I have felt for a long time that draft picks in general are overvalued. Take a look at the #2 overall picks for the last 25 drafts. There are more stiffs than studs, and that is with the second pick in the entire draft. That’s a big reason why I am not losing sleep over the fact that the Knicks don’t have a second round pick this year.

    40. flossy

      thenamestsam:

      TThere’s probably a ~10% chance we get a guy who ends up being really good, ~20% chance we get something useful and a ~70% chance we get a dud. Knicks fans expectations are completely out of wack here.

      My point was that JaVale McGee is a low IQ player who actually hurts his team’s performance when he does play, and if that’s the best case scenario for Mitchell then I’m not interested. This draft is weak in terms of top-level talent but seems actually quite stocked with future role players and guys with low ceilings who could nevertheless contribute in small ways from the jump. I’d much rather pick a future career back-up who can play 15-20mpg in his first year than try find a future star who will get nailed to the bench and contribute nothing because he’s so raw.

      If it comes down to Tony Mitchell vs. say, Jeff Withey, we’d be crazy not to opt for the more NBA ready prospect. Just because the odds are not great for any low first round pick doesn’t mean it’s smart to pick a raw athlete with motivation and IQ problems and just hope for the best.

    41. thenamestsam

      Flossy,

      I mostly agree. I wasn’t trying to take a shot at you specifically at all, just pointing out that the general consensus on this board seems to be that the expectation is that the Knicks will get an impact player at this spot. Just pointing out that I don’t think that’s very likely.

      One thing I’ll say is that I think the perception that there’s a lot of depth available this year is (at least in part) directly caused by the lack of top tier talent. In years where there’s a Derek Rose type player, or a Greg Oden/Durant type debate at the top draft coverage is completely dominated by that. This year the lack of compelling top guys is leading to more coverage than normal for guys lower down. And for most of us who aren’t scouts and don’t watch a ton of college hoops, our perception of how good a prospect a guy like Mitchell is vs. a guy like say Reggie Jackson from a couple years ago is driven almost entirely by how much buzz they get. Maybe there really is more depth than normal this year but I think this is at least part of the story here. Next year when 99% of the coverage is about Wiggins I bet there’s a perception that the draft is shallow.

    42. Juany8

      thenamestsam: Devil’s advocate:

      A. Aren’t we capped out with a second round ceiling?
      B. Question A is a stupid question because comparing the fates of the two teams after the trade is a really dumb way to judge the trade. The two teams were not choosing from the same decision set at all. Denver’s choice was not keep Melo or trade Melo. It was let Melo walk or trade Melo to NY or NJ. Arguing over whether we gave up more than we got would only be relevant if Denver had actually been making a choice between the players they gave up and the players they got back. They weren’t.

      I think if healthy we would have made the ECF and had a shot against Miami. Nuggets lost in the first round to a merely solid team. As far as the actual pieces of the trade, Denver is now paying gallo and chandler almost exactly the same amount we pay Melo and Copeland/Novak. All their top players were acquired in moves outside of that, which means the nuggets could have simply gotten rid of Melo for nothing and would have virtually the same team, only with more flexibility. In other words, getting Melo and the cap space from billups were the key components of the Knicks current core. The nuggets are paying a max contract for their small forward rotation that will never sniff an all star team.

      You can’t judge the trade by the overall fate of the team, but the nuggets might have been better off just letting Melo walk, or trading him for picks and little else. Their core would still be in place and they’d have more flexibility going forward.

    43. massive

      I think the whole “this draft doesn’t have top level talent” thing is being overblown. Ben McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Trey Burke, Victor Oladipo, and Alex Len look like good young pieces to build a good core around. You’ll get your Russell Westbrook in this draft, but no Kevin Durants.

    44. max fisher-cohen

      Johnno draft picks are like playing the lottery. If you draft a superstar, you almost definitely have that player for the first 8-9 years of his career (4 year rookie contract, 4-5 year extension after matching a restricted free agency contract).

      The best way imo is to look at it from the reverse perspective. If you don’t have one of the five best players in the league, you have almost no chance at a title. The odds of winning a title without one of those players in the post max-contract environment (1999 onward) are even WORSE than the odds of getting a top 5 player in the draft.

      The only team to have won a title without a player who had played his whole career with them as one of their top two players were the Pistons, who managed to bring in three late blooming players in Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Chauncey Billups (all of whom were under 30 when they bloomed). Lakers had Kobe; Spurs had Ginobili, Duncan, Robinson and now Parker; Miami had Wade; Dallas had Nowitzki.

      Even in the 90s, the same thing was true — Jordan and Pippen were both home grown, and Hakeem was drafted by Houston, Detroit had Thomas, Rodman and Dumars.

      So yeah, we’ve seen great players switch teams recently with Paul, Lebron and Howard and Shaq back in the late 90s, but we’ve never seen a team manage to acquire exclusively through free agency the level of talent necessary to win a title. Would the Celtics, for example, have been able to win a title had they had to trade for Pierce as well? That likely would have cost them Rondo…

      And if we were hoping to follow the detroit model, it wouldn’t be through signing stars like Stoudemire and Melo. It would be by looking for underachieving players that might bring out the best in each other.

    45. johnno

      massive: I think the whole “this draft doesn’t have top level talent” thing is being overblown.

      I don’t know nearly enough about the players in the draft to have an opinion one way or the other about this but, as someone pointed out the other day, the 2011 draft was supposed to be the worst crop of talent in a decade. Here’s who was picked OUTSIDE of the lottery that year — Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, Shumpert, Tobias Harris, Kenneth Faried, Norris Cole, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons and Isiah Thomas. That team could almost certainly beat a team of players picked in the lottery that year. Hmm. Ignore what I said a few posts up about not being upset that the Knicks don’t have a second round pick. Maybe there is real talent late in this year’s draft…

    46. JK47

      Yeah, I mean look at San Antonio, who have a great team year after year after year because they draft like geniuses despite almost never having a pick higher than 28. Look at their core– other than Duncan, who was a no-brainer as a #1 pick, almost every guy on the team is there because of the Spurs’ shrewd drafting

      Starting Lineup:
      Tim Duncan (#1 overall)
      Tiago Splitter (#28 overall)
      Kawhi Leonard (traded for George Hill, the #28 pick)
      Manu Ginobilli (#57 overall)
      Tony Parker (#28 overall)

      They found Danny Green and Gary Neal on the scrap heap. DeJuan Blair was a second round pick. If you know what you’re doing, you can consistently find good players no matter where you pick in the draft.

    47. thenamestsam

      Juany8: I think if healthy we would have made the ECF and had a shot against Miami. Nuggets lost in the first round to a merely solid team. As far as the actual pieces of the trade, Denver is now paying gallo and chandler almost exactly the same amount we pay Melo and Copeland/Novak. All their top players were acquired in moves outside of that, which means the nuggets could have simply gotten rid of Melo for nothing and would have virtually the same team, only with more flexibility. In other words, getting Melo and the cap space from billups were the key components of the Knicks current core. The nuggets are paying a max contract for their small forward rotation that will never sniff an all star team.

      You can’t judge the trade by the overall fate of the team, but the nuggets might have been better off just letting Melo walk, or trading him for picks and little else. Their core would still be in place and they’d have more flexibility going forward.

      I don’t necessarily disagree, but I don’t think it’s obvious that they’d be significantly better off had they taken some other deal or let him walk. After all they did just have the best regular season in franchise history, and yes they lost in the 1st round, but as we all know Gallo was hurt and Golden State wasn’t really significantly weaker than the team we lost to (at least in my opinion).

      Mostly I just hate the winner-loser method of assessing trades like the Melo trade. Yes, Denver is paying Gallo+Chandler more than we pay Melo and regardless of what WoW says that sucks. But they never had the option to pay Melo that money, and arguing that they’d be better off with the cap space than they are with Gallo+Chandler immediately becomes a much more complex argument. That’s a big part of their team and we really can’t even begin to figure out who would be there instead.

    48. yellowboy90

      IF you are the Clippers and want to keep CP3 why not shred cap space to open up room for dwight?

    49. Juany8

      thenamestsam: I don’t necessarily disagree, but I don’t think it’s obvious that they’d be significantly better off had they taken some other deal or let him walk. After all they did just have the best regular season in franchise history, and yes they lost in the 1st round, but as we all know Gallo was hurt and Golden State wasn’t really significantly weaker than the team we lost to (at least in my opinion).

      Mostly I just hate the winner-loser method of assessing trades like the Melo trade. Yes, Denver is paying Gallo+Chandler more than we pay Melo and regardless of what WoW says that sucks. But they never had the option to pay Melo that money, and arguing that they’d be better off with the cap space than they are with Gallo+Chandler immediately becomes a much more complex argument. That’s a big part of their team and we really can’t even begin to figure out who would be there instead.

      Thats all fair, my initial comment is that I found it funny people still complained about th trade more so than making a point of saying the Knicks won the trade but the nuggets didnt have any great options. On the other hand, some people have argued that they would take the nuggets side of the deal straight up, which means having gallo and chandler instead of Melo. I think that is ridiculous, so although the nuggets might have made the best of a bad situation, they clearly got the worse end of the deal in terms of the actual players transferred.

    50. jon abbey

      yellowboy90:
      IF you are the Clippers and want to keep CP3 why not shred cap space to open up room for dwight?

      isn’t that a lot easier said than done?

    51. Juany8

      yellowboy90:
      IF you are the Clippers and want to keep CP3 why not shred cap space to open up room for dwight?

      It means trading Blake griffin, the player who put you on the map in the first place. Maybe I’d do it but it’s not an easy choicr

    52. jon abbey

      the Nuggets had a real chance this year if Gallo didn’t go down, I still had them beating SA in the second round even without him. of course GS took them out before that, I did not expect that given Denver’s fantastic home record.

    53. Juany8

      jon abbey:
      the Nuggets had a real chance this year if Gallo didn’t go down, I still had them beating SA in the second round even without him. of course GS took them out before that, I did not expect that given Denver’s fantastic home record.

      I mean ginobli is still injured and playing pretty poorly, and Westbrook was out all together, so the nuggets don’t get excuses for injuries. Especially when half the Knicks starters are going to be recovering from injuries this summer, and a certain new coach would have probably helped out more if he had retired before the offseason. Nuggets had some chance sure, but not more so than like 6 other teams. Golden state is being overrated right now, that team still has to get better to seriously contend, and young potential starts to wear off dramatically fast. Their two best players are very injury prone, and their core going forward hasn’t really played together considering bogut and lee keep alternating injuries. Keep in mind that they had a worse point differential than the lakers and rockets during the season.

    54. jon abbey

      yeah, Denver had a chance like we had a chance, everything needed to go right but there was probably no one they couldn’t beat if it did.

    55. yellowboy90

      Juany8: It means trading Blake griffin, the player who put you on the map in the first place. Maybe I’d do it but it’s not an easy choicr

      Juany8: It means trading Blake griffin, the player who put you on the map in the first place. Maybe I’d do it but it’s not an easy choicr

      How about this

      Portland: Tyson, Novak, 2014 2nd rd pick

      LA: 39th and 40th picks, and 20+ million in cap space.

      NY: Jordan, Bledsoe, Butler, rights to Pap, and Leonard or 10th

      Something like that. Gives them a way to keep Griffin and add Howard. I think a deal like that would put them at around 24 million. I am not saying thats a good deal for Ny because I am not a fan of Jordan but the extras included would give me cause to think.

    56. Juany8

      yellowboy90:
      How about this

      Portland: Tyson, Novak, 2014 2nd rd pick

      LA: 39th and 40th picks, and 20+ million in cap space.

      NY: Jordan, Bledsoe, Butler, rights to Pap, and Leonard or 10th

      Something like that. Gives them a way to keep Griffin and add Howard. I think a deal like that would put them at around 24 million. I am not saying thats a good deal for Ny because I am not a fan of Jordan but the extras included would give me cause to think.

      I like Bledsoe but I don’t think the Knicks will trade chandler for a package centered around him and Jordan, who’s a much worse version of chandler. On the other hand, chandler has only been healthy like 2 postseasons in his whole career, so maybe you give up and hope Bledsoe blossoms with more playing time and responsibility.

    57. flossy

      I don’t understand the fascination with Eric Bledsoe. He was an extremely, and I mean EXTREMELY bad offensive player his first two seasons and was still below average in that respect last season. He’s not a great shooter, not a great passer, he turns the ball over a ton, he’s never played more than 22 mpg… sure he’s a stud athlete and has a lot of upside as a defender, but I wouldn’t rock the boat just to bring him on board.

    58. yellowboy90

      Is it really rocking the boat if you can get a center, pg, and another young player with the 10th pick. The 10th pick gives the Knicks a little insurance to double down on another big, pg, or anything. IDK.

    59. jon abbey

      it would really be nice if we could trade Chandler for value before he completely falls off a cliff.

    60. massive

      flossy:
      I don’t understand the fascination with Eric Bledsoe.He was an extremely, and I mean EXTREMELY bad offensive player his first two seasons and was still below average in that respect last season.He’s not a great shooter, not a great passer, he turns the ball over a ton, he’s never played more than 22 mpg… sure he’s a stud athlete and has a lot of upside as a defender, but I wouldn’t rock the boat just to bring him on board.

      Exactly. Nothing about Eric Bledsoe says he’s about to become a good starter in this league. I’d much rather try to see if Darren Collison is available. He’d probably come cheaper, and that .575 TS% is worth adding to our back court.

    61. max fisher-cohen

      Bledsoe is just incredibly athletically gifted and took huge strides last season, jumping from a shit 3pt shooter up near 40%. If he takes another huge step next season, which given his athletic gifts is completely feasible, he becomes a real impact player. I agree with Jon that Chandler seems poised to fall off a cliff given his value is built on athleticism and the fact that he’s got more miles on his body since he came out of HS. If it’s not next season, it’s almost definite that the dropoff comes before 2015, so why not trade him now when he’s most likely at peak value?

      I’m not a huge fan of Jordan either. it’s about planning for the future. I’d trade Chandler to Cleveland to for, say, Varejao and the 19th and 31st picks.

    62. Juany8

      max fisher-cohen:
      Bledsoe is just incredibly athletically gifted and took huge strides last season, jumping from a shit 3pt shooter up near 40%. If he takes another huge step next season, which given his athletic gifts is completely feasible, he becomes a real impact player. I agree with Jon that Chandler seems poised to fall off a cliff given his value is built on athleticism and the fact that he’s got more miles on his body since he came out of HS. If it’s not next season, it’s almost definite that the dropoff comes before 2015, so why not trade him now when he’s most likely at peak value?

      I’m not a huge fan of Jordan either. it’s about planning for the future. I’d trade Chandler to Cleveland to for, say, Varejao and the 19th and 31st picks.

      Pick up a decent bench player from them and I like the varejao trade overall, although if you’re worried about players breaking down then maybe it’s a bad idea to pick up varejao, who’s injuries are part of the reason the cavs keep sucking every year.

    Comments are closed.