Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Friday, Jul 19 2013)

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Delle Donne Leads W.N.B.A. All-Star Voting (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 04:05:18 GMT)
    Elena Delle Donne of the Chicago Sky became the first rookie to lead the W.N.B.A. All-Star voting when the starters were announced Thursday.    

  • [New York Times] In Brooklyn, New Nets Stars Are Clear About Their Goal (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 03:24:51 GMT)
    “Champion,” “champions” and “championship” were said a combined eight times in the first five minutes of the Nets’ news conference to introduce Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry.    

  • [New York Times] Delle Donne Is Top Vote Getter for W.N.B.A. All-Star Team (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 02:42:54 GMT)
    The Chicago Sky’s Elena Delle Donne became the first rookie to lead the league’s All-Star voting when the starters were announced Thursday.    

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Approves Return of Hornets Name to Charlotte (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 02:25:09 GMT)
    The N.B.A. unanimously approved Charlotte’s nickname change from the Bobcats to the Hornets at the league’s Board of Governors meeting.    

  • [New York Times] For Nets’ Prokhorov, $183 Million Is No Object (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 01:34:11 GMT)
    Mikhail D. Prokhorov is showing his determination to win at any cost: a high-profile trade helped raise the Nets’ payroll to $101 million, triggering a luxury tax bill of about $82 million.    

  • [New York Post] Painful ‘Truth’ about Knicks (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 05:15:02 -0500)
    Forget anyone, Paul?
    In his first day with a Nets uniform, Paul Pierce took an intra-city swipe at the Knicks, conspicuously leaving them off of a list of contenders to challenge the defending champion Heat in the Eastern Conference.
    “I think we’re going to be right up there with…

  • [ESPN.com - New York Knicks] Van Gundy makes case for Ewing as coach (Fri, 19 Jul 2013 00:03:58 EDT)
    Earlier this summer, Patrick Ewing Jr. took to Twitter to express frustration that his Hall of Fame father was still an assistant coach after 10 seasons. It all happened when Jason Kidd became the Brooklyn Nets’ head coach with no prior NBA coaching experience.Well, Ewing Jr. isn’t the only one who’s confused about Patrick Ewing’s situation. On Thursday, former Knicks coach and ESPN NBA analyst Jeff Van Gundy went on a serious monologue on ESPN New York 98.

  • 160 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Friday, Jul 19 2013)

    1. Z-man

      Sounds like Pierce is already trying to stoke the rivalry by dismissing the Knicks. I wonder if its in response to Metta’s tweet. Tickets for regular season games should go for big bucks!

    2. Z-man

      I do have to hand it to the Russian. His goal was to win a championship within 5 years, and there is no doubt that this team is a serious contender. I’m not ready to crown them yet, they are old and injury prone and have depth issues at PG, but they should be a fun team for NBA fans of any team to watch.

    3. Hubert

      maxwell_3g: I understand your point about melo and I would say that it is a matter of degree.that being said, signing LeBron (who has already won 2 titles with another team) to win a title for us would def not be earning it.your attempt to extend my point of view to an absurd conclusion is ridiculous.How about an actual Knick (which melo may or may not be by them, but lebron certainly is not and will never be) lead our team to our first title in a long time

      Did we actually get into a “True Yankee” discussion last night?

      If Melo got LeBron to come here and we won multiple titles playing some of the most scintillating basketball ever seen at MSG and someone was upset because “we didn’t earn it”, that would be amazing.

    4. Hubert

      Z-man:
      I do have to hand it to the Russian. His goal was to win a championship within 5 years, and there is no doubt that this team is a serious contender. I’m not ready to crown them yet, they are old and injury prone and have depth issues at PG, but they should be a fun team for NBA fans of any team to watch.

      There is plenty of doubt that they are a serious contender. I consider them destined for a first round ouster in the 4/5 matchup.

      My favorite part of yesterday’s press conference (aside from the fact that Paul Pierce looked like someone shot his dog throughout the whole thing), was the part where KG & Pierce said they were looking forward to teaching “the young guys” how to win…and they meant Deron Williams!

      He’s going to love playing with those two. Shit’s got Kobe v Howard written all over it.

    5. Frank

      Hubert: There is plenty of doubt that they are a serious contender. I consider them destined for a first round ouster in the 4/5 matchup.

      If they can be healthy during the postseason, I think the Nets are a serious contender. you may be right that they’ll be a 4 or 5 seed, but that will only be because I don’t think they’ll play pedal-to-the-metal during the regular season.

      The Nets offense was pretty good last season (top 10) and that was with them playing Gerald Wallace and Reggie Evans a total of 65 minutes per game (although Evans mostly made up for his terrible offensive game by getting O-rebounds and the such). We saw how Chicago beat them in the playoffs – play 5-on-4 or even 5-on-3 when one or both those guys are on the court. Now they’re adding 2 bonafide offensive threats in KG and Pierce, as well as a guy in KG who is still one of the best defensive big men in the league. They’re adding one of the great do-everything guys in the league in Kirilenko — a guy who can probably credibly guard all 5 positions. They’re going to be really good. As to whether they’ll be better than the Knicks– hard to say, but this is going to be a great rivalry.

    6. Z-man

      KG vs. MWP
      Truth vs. Melo
      Lopez vs. Tyson
      JoeJ vs. Shump
      DWill vs. RayRay
      AK47 vs. Bargs
      Blatche vs. Amare
      Evans vs. KMart (hopefully)
      Terry vs. JR
      Livingston vs. Prigs

      That is a very intriguing set of matchups.

    7. thenamestsam

      Hubert: There is plenty of doubt that they are a serious contender.I consider them destined for a first round ouster in the 4/5 matchup.

      My favorite part of yesterday’s press conference (aside from the fact that Paul Pierce looked like someone shot his dog throughout the whole thing), was the part where KG & Pierce said they were looking forward to teaching “the young guys” how to win…and they meant Deron Williams!

      He’s going to love playing with those two.Shit’s got Kobe v Howard written all over it.

      Your mileage on “serious contender” may vary but Vegas has them at 7th favorite to win the title at ~15-1 from the most recent numbers I’ve seen. That seems about right to me.

      I think they’re pretty clearly outside the top rung of contenders – Miami, OKC, Spurs, Bulls in my opinion (and Vegas’). They’re in a 2nd group with Indiana, the Clippers and the Rockets – very talented rosters who have legitimate questions about how everything will fit together. If it works any of those teams might be extremely good, if not I could see any of them potentially going out in the 1st round.

    8. DRed

      Vegas currently has us about 9th in the East. Someone yesterday acted shocked when I suggested that the playoffs weren’t a lock for us next season, but apparently the oddsmakers agree with me on that one. I think we will, but if you starting hearing things like “now starting at power forward, Andrea Bargnani” we could be in for a very disappointing year.

    9. lavor postell

      I just have a hard time imagining the Nets having enough depth to get through the season and be peaking come playoff time. Who are their backup PG/SG/C? Blatche at center last year was a disaster defensively, which is why they so often had to pair him with Reggie Evans rather than ideally playing him alongside Garnett. So their starting 5 will be much stronger this year with KG protecting Lopez and minimizing his defensive responsibilities while being a much better complement offensively than Evans. However this is going to come at the cost of a massive drop on their ORG% something I think that’s being a bit understated.

      Garnett is obviously an upgrade and improvement over Evans, but again he still doesn’t address their defensive problems that existed last year anytime Evans wasn’t in the game to cover up for both Blatche and Lopez’s poor rotations. I just don’t see the Nets having nearly enough depth to emerge as champions when they are more dependent on old dudes than we were last year, without nearly as much depth.

      I also don’t think the gap in the East is as large as people want to think. Everybody keeps talking about how Indiana is better because they imposed their will inside. Of course they did when Chandler was 15 pounds lighter than his normal playing weight and could barely raise his hands over his head.

      That’s what will happen when you make a title run in 2011, go 60+ strong in a 66 game condensed season, quietly salvaging the Knicks season while Lin and Melo got most of the glory, play in the Olympics and then play without a backup for much of the season. If we can find an adequate big (JJ?) in addition to re-signing KMart and hold Tyson back to 32 mpg that would be perfect. That team might regress a bit offensively, but stands a chance to be way better defensively than last year especially with a healthy Shump and addition of MWP.

    10. thenamestsam

      DRed:
      Vegas currently has us about 9th in the East.Someone yesterday acted shocked when I suggested that the playoffs weren’t a lock for us next season, but apparently the oddsmakers agree with me on that one.I think we will, but if you starting hearing things like “now starting at power forward, Andrea Bargnani” we could be in for a very disappointing year.

      Very curious where you saw those numbers. Everything I’ve seen says 5th (with a very large gap between 5th and 6th).

    11. lavor postell

      Wow nevermind I thought the Nets lost Evans. I think that’s actually really huge for them. Kirilenko-Evans-Blatche off the bench is a great frontcourt rotation if they can get any decent guard play.

    12. Hubert

      Frank: If they can be healthy during the postseason, I think the Nets are a serious contender.you may be right that they’ll be a 4 or 5 seed, but that will only be becauseI don’t think they’ll play pedal-to-the-metal during the regular season.

      The Nets offense was pretty good last season (top 10) and that was with them playing Gerald Wallace and Reggie Evans a total of 65 minutes per game (although Evans mostly made up for his terrible offensive game by getting O-rebounds and the such).We saw how Chicago beat them in the playoffs – play 5-on-4 or even 5-on-3 when one or both those guys are on the court.Now they’re adding 2 bonafide offensive threats in KG and Pierce, as well as a guy in KG who is still one of the best defensive big men in the league. They’re adding one of the great do-everything guys in the league in Kirilenko — a guy who can probably credibly guard all 5 positions. They’re going to be really good. As to whether they’ll be better than the Knicks– hard to say, but this is going to be a great rivalry.

      Got it. So by picking up two guys who combined for over 50% USG on the league’s 24th best offense, that’s going to help them improve on their top 10 offense.

      Meanwhile, Kevin Garnett, who played only slightly more than half his team’s mintues (51.37%, to be exact) last year, and is expected to have them reduced this year, is going to single handedly transform the Nets into a respectable defensive team.

      People ain’t doing the math on this team.

    13. flossy

      DRed:
      Vegas currently has us about 9th in the East.Someone yesterday acted shocked when I suggested that the playoffs weren’t a lock for us next season, but apparently the oddsmakers agree with me on that one.I think we will, but if you starting hearing things like “now starting at power forward, Andrea Bargnani” we could be in for a very disappointing year.

      Excuse me? A 54-win, 2nd seeded team replaced Steve Novak, Chris Copeland (who rarely played), Camby (who never played) and the corpse of Jason Kidd with Ron Artest, Bargnani and Tim Hardaway JR… and we’re going to fall out of the playoffs?! GTFO! That is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a while.

      I completely agree that Bargnani is not good, but he’d have to infect Tyson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony with the ebola virus to drop the Knicks down to the ninth seed, especially in the Eastern Conference where a solid half of the teams don’t even want to make the playoffs.

    14. DRed

      flossy: Excuse me?A 54-win, 2nd seeded team replaced Steve Novak, Chris Copeland (who rarely played), Camby (who never played) and the corpse of Jason Kidd withRon Artest, Bargnani and Tim Hardaway JR… and we’re going to fall out of the playoffs?!GTFO!That is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a while.

      I completely agree that Bargnani is not good, but he’d have to infect Tyson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony with the ebola virus to drop the Knicks down to the ninth seed, especially in the Eastern Conference where a solid half of the teams don’t even want to make the playoffs.

      Artest should be good. Bargnani is terrible and Hardaway Jr will probably not be very good. A bunch of our good players carry a significant injury risk. Out of our main rotation players, only Shumpert can be expected to significantly improve (actually, Bargnani should improve significantly if healthy, if only because he was so incredibly awful last year, but I’m really hoping he spends most of the season nailed to the bench), and we have a few players who may fall off a cliff. I’m reasonably optimistic about the season, but to my eyes we’re definitely worse than we were last year at this time, and if a few things go wrong, we could be a lot worse.

    15. Brian Cronin

      The wheels could come off completely and this team would still make the playoffs. The bottom ten teams in the East are terrible.

    16. lavor postell

      DRed:
      Vegas currently has us about 9th in the East.Someone yesterday acted shocked when I suggested that the playoffs weren’t a lock for us next season, but apparently the oddsmakers agree with me on that one.I think we will, but if you starting hearing things like “now starting at power forward, Andrea Bargnani” we could be in for a very disappointing year.

      Also what book are you looking at? My book and every other other one I’ve looked at has us with 5th best odds in the East. I’d love to pound the Knicks to make the playoffs on whatever book you’re going by.

    17. Hubert

      One thing about the Pacers: I think they are poised to be a better team in next year’s postseason, but nothing about them screams “we’re going to win 6 more games in the regular season.”

      Chicago is the one team that I can see vaulting past us. But unless you believe our success next year was a total fluke, I don’t see how we’re not the 3rd best team in the conference next year. We won 54 games and we’re getting Amar’e back, adding Artest, will (hopefully) have Martin for a full season, upgraded Copeland/Novak with AB, and have Shumpert for an entire season. The only significant player we lost was Jason Kidd. I see us 1-2 wins better than last year.

      I don’t see how Indiana or Brooklyn are 7 or more wins better than last year’s 49 win total. They will both be tougher in the playoffs, but did either of them really catapult from a 49 win team to a 57 win team? I don’t see how they could have.

      I know predictions are stupid, but it’s a slow Friday and it’s 1000 degrees outside, so I’m inviting everyone to offer theirs. Here are mine:

      1. Chicago 58-24
      2. Miami 57-25 (assuming they don’t try as hard)
      3. New York 55-27
      4. Indiana 54-28
      5. Brooklyn 52-30
      6. Washington 41-41
      7. Detroit 39-43
      8. Milwaukee 37-45

    18. flossy

      DRed: I’m reasonably optimistic about the season, but to my eyes we’re definitely worse than we were last year at this time, and if a few things go wrong, we could be a lot worse.

      I find it hard to imagine we’ll have more injury problems than we did last year, when we had the oldest roster in league history and lost the 2nd most player games to injury after the Timberwolves. As much as I hate Bargnani, we have enough depth in the frontcourt that he won’t hurt us if he can’t make himself useful. Shumpert looks to improve, Amar’e will improve the team considerably if he can give us more than the 600 minutes we got last season, Artest will make a real impact.

      Of the players that we lost, only Kidd could reasonably be called a substantial contributor. And in the calendar year 2013, he was on a steep downward slope to the point of being a huge liablity–and what’s more, his early season role was very capably replicated by Prigioni toward the end of the regular season.

      In order to think we’ll be the 9th seed, short of catastrophic injuries to Melo and Chandler, you have to think that the difference between the 2nd seed in the east and not making the playoffs is a 39 year-old Jason Kidd, and replacing 20 mpg of Steve Novak with 20 mpg of Bargnani (and that ignores the addition of Artest).

      It’s not. We will absolutely make the playoffs next season, if for no other reason than half the teams in the East will have pictures of Andrew Wiggins taped above their lockers.

    19. Frank

      DRed: I’m reasonably optimistic about the season, but to my eyes we’re definitely worse than we were last year at this time, and if a few things go wrong, we could be a lot worse.

      I’m not really sure how you arrive at this conclusion. Jason Kidd was great for 2 months, then beyond awful for the last 5+ months of the season. After New Year’s, Kidd had a TS of 43.2%. For all the ball movement he was supposed to bring, the offense was a net negative 5 points/100poss when he was on the court after 1/1/13 (1.067PPP with him and 1.117 without him). Only 48.5% of buckets were assisted with him on the court and 53.2% when he was off the court. For all his rebounding prowess, him being on or off the court basically made no difference (49.8 TRB with, 49.5 TRB without).

      Losing Cope and Novak hurts the shooting, sure, but their defensive deficiencies were, I’m sure, one of the major reasons we went with this crazy switching/doubling thing.

      We also had some of the worst injury luck in the league. Melo missed, what, 15 games? Amare missed most of the season? Shump was a huge black hole for the first 2 months when he had no athleticism or confidence? Tyson was a shell of himself (or not playing) for the last 2 months of the season?

      IMHO if we don’t win mid 50s again this year it will only be because the top of the eastern conference has gotten stronger – not because we necessarily got weaker. And even in that setting, the bottom of the EC is much worse. I think it’ll be a dogfight to the end in the Atlantic vs BKN, and I really wouldn’t be surprised if Kidd ceded the Atlantic to be sure their geriatric team is ready for the playoffs.

    20. lavor postell

      Throughout the playoffs we saw the importance of match-ups. Pierce is not an all-league colossus anymore and more than anything Shumpert turning him into a glorified JR Smith exposed that. I have a lot of confidence in Shumpert and MWP more than holding their own against Pierce and Johnson for 1/20th of the price.

    21. Keniman Shumpwalker

      DRed: Artest should be good.Bargnani is terrible and Hardaway Jr will probably not be very good.A bunch of our good players carry a significant injury risk.Out of our main rotation players, only Shumpert can be expected to significantly improve (actually, Bargnani should improve significantly if healthy, if only because he was so incredibly awful last year, but I’m really hoping he spends most of the season nailed to the bench), and we have a few players who may fall off a cliff.I’m reasonably optimistic about the season, but to my eyes we’re definitely worse than we were last year at this time, and if a few things go wrong, we could be a lot worse.

      Please elaborate because as is, this argument makes no sense. How are we “worse than we were last year at this time”? We’re already healthier and we’ve returned the same core that just won 54 games and, with major injury issues, took a really good Pacers team to 6 games in the 2nd round. Why are we worse? Because there’s no replacement for Kidd? Sheed? Ronnie fucking Brewer? At this time last year we had no idea when Shump or STAT would be back on the court, were relying on a crew of geriatrics and stiffs to hold the fort down until they got healthy and had a bunch of new guys who had never played together. I would say that we are in SIGNIFICANTLY better shape now than we were last summer (and I hate Bargnani too and think he’s going to be turrrrible and I’m not a fan of THJR’s game at all). I understand thinking we might regress slightly, I understand thinking that there’s no way we’ll stay healthy…but coming to the season in worse shape, falling out of the playoffs entirely…this is pessimism overkill.

    22. jon abbey

      we need more guys on this roster before projecting anything, K-Mart would be a nice start.

    23. thenamestsam

      Hubert:
      One thing about the Pacers: I think they are poised to be a better team in next year’s postseason, but nothing about them screams “we’re going to win 6 more games in the regular season.”

      Strongly, strongly disagree. I think quite a few things about them scream at least 6 more wins. For one, Danny Granger. Remember him? The guy who everyone agreed was their best player 12 months ago? Yeah, I think for an insanely shallow team having an extra borderline all-star caliber wing is going to be a pretty big deal. Last year their reserve wings were Gerald Green, Sam Young, and Orlando Johnson. Not an NBA rotation caliber player in the bunch. If Granger is healthy I think that’s 6 wins right there. Then they added Cope and CJ Watson. I’m not as Cope obsessed as some, but that’s 2 more solid bench players on a team that had basically none last year. Then consider how slow a start Hibbert got off to last year. No way does he not put up a better regular season than he did last year. Then there’s this – Gerorge Hill is 26, Hibbert is 26, Paul George is 23, Lance Stephenson is 22. They have plenty of guys who you would expect to get better with another year.

      I’d be downright shocked if that wasn’t a 55 win team this year.

    24. Hubert

      jon abbey:
      we need more guys on this roster before projecting anything, K-Mart would be a nice start.

      You’re right. I was projecting him as part of the team. But there is enough set now to make half-assed guesses that show us what your expectations are for next year.

    25. Brian Cronin

      we need more guys on this roster before projecting anything, K-Mart would be a nice start.

      Specific predictions, agreed. But I think we’re pretty safe to say that they’ll make the playoffs just with what they have already.

    26. Hubert

      thenamestsam: Strongly, strongly disagree. I think quite a few things about them scream at least 6 more wins. For one, Danny Granger. Remember him? The guy who everyone agreed was their best player 12 months ago? Yeah, I think for an insanely shallow team having an extra borderline all-star caliber wing is going to be a pretty big deal. Last year their reserve wings were Gerald Green, Sam Young, and Orlando Johnson. Not an NBA rotation caliber player in the bunch. If Granger is healthy I think that’s 6 wins right there. Then they added Cope and CJ Watson. I’m not as Cope obsessed as some, but that’s 2 more solid bench players on a team that had basically none last year. Then consider how slow a start Hibbert got off to last year. No way does he not put up a better regular season than he did last year. Then there’s this – Gerorge Hill is 26, Hibbert is 26, Paul George is 23, Lance Stephenson is 22. They have plenty of guys who you would expect to get better with another year.

      I’d be downright shocked if that wasn’t a 55 win team this year.

      Yes, I remember Danny Granger.

      Let’s talk about Danny Granger.

      Danny Granger has chronic knee problems. Danny Granger has missed 135 games over the course of the last 5 seasons. That’s over 1/3 of his team’s games he hasn’t been able to suit up for.

      Danny Granger has also never been as good at basketball as Amar’e Stoudemire is. He is more injury prone. And Amar’e is much farther along in his recovery process.

      So please, explain to me how Indiana getting Danny Granger back to replace Sam Young, Gerald Green, et al… is a bigger deal than us getting Amar’e Stoudemire back to replace all the minutes we wasted starting Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby, Ronnie Brewer, and James White?

    27. thenamestsam

      Brian Cronin: Specific predictions, agreed. But I think we’re pretty safe to say that they’ll make the playoffs just with what they have already.

      Agreed. There are reasons to doubt this Knicks team, but have people looked at the bottom of the Eastern Conference? Doubting whether this team is better than the teams in the Milwaukee, Boston, Detroit group is just incomprehensible to me.

      I’d love to hear DRed or someone else try to make the case for 8 East teams above us. I have a feeling that once they actually took a hard look at those rosters they’d feel very differently. People here get down on the Knicks because we spend so much time dissecting and scrutinizing every little thing. But once you actually look hard at some other teams as well their warts start to become very, very clear.

    28. ess-dog

      I think people here are overrating the Bulls a bit. Deng and Boozer will be a year older, and no one knows what Rose will come back looking like.

      Indy should be about as good as last year. They are a tough, young defensive team, but I don’t think they have a ton of growth potential at this point actually.

      Of course, either of those teams could swing a trade that might boost them up a bit, but I think the Knicks at full strength are right there with these two teams.

      With JR and Tyson at 100% and Kidd providing anything at all, I think we win that Indy series and the right to lose to the Heat, lol.

    29. DRed

      We weren’t unlucky with injuries last season. Amare missing a lot of games is not bad luck. He can’t stay healthy, and unless we’re lucky this year, he’s going to miss a bunch of games again or play 20 minutes a night. Tyson Chandler will wear down unless we can get a capable backup for him. Carmelo, who is a very tough guy battling bigger men most nights, will miss some games and play through nagging injuries in others. That happens every season. Shump should be better this year, and may well be much better. Who else can we project to be better this year? Felton is 29, Prigs is 36, JR is coming off knee surgery, Metta is turning 34 and Carmelo may have a fucked up shoulder. I think we’ve got a playoff caliber team, but it’s not as good as last seasons, and the risk of collapse is higher. Give me a solid backup for Tyson and I’ll feel a lot better, but I think you’re all slightly overestimating the current quality of the team.

    30. MeloDrama

      I like how Utah loses their entire starting lineup and spikes up in WOW projection. I’m not even crapping on WOW here, just laughing at Utah b/c it almost seems plausible to me that they’re now forced to start the good players and will therefore become good.

    31. Hubert

      thenamestsam: Then consider how slow a start Hibbert got off to last year. No way does he not put up a better regular season than he did last year.

      Roy Hibbert puts up pretty much the same regular season every year. I think people are expecting his postseason form to replicate itself in the regular season, and that’s the primary reason they are getting overrated.

      If Roy Hibbert can produce the form he produced against us & Miami over 82 games, I concede they are probably a 57 win team.

      I just think it’s far more likely he’s going to play to the level he plays at consistently during the regular season.

    32. MeloDrama

      And while I think the Knicks are still well into the East playoff picture, the East looks much better than it was on paper right now. Atlanta swapped Millsap in for Smith, will get Lou Williams back and overall looks the same or better than last season. Washington finished the season on a roll with Wall and would have playoffed had he been healthy all year. Cleveland has a nice defensive frontcourt with Varajao (healthy) and Thompson with Kyrie in the backcourt, Detroit needs a PG but upgraded big with Smith, and Toronto might be a sleeper with Jonas V developing and some nice pieces around him (Amir Johnson, Kyle Lowry).

      Don’t think a healthy Knicks team falls behind any of these (aside mayyyybe from Atlanta, depending on how legit the Spurs asst. is) but I think we’ll have 8 teams that actually earn their way in this season, vs. the Bucks basically getting in on bye and the Celts getting in after taking a month off.

    33. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      thenamestsam: Good god do I wish I could get action against those numbers. It wouldn’t even be gambling. I could retire on Monday.

      Get action against those Vegas numbers. I’m sure your fanboyism will override Vegas’s statistical projections.

      45-wins will be a good year for this team.

      Andrea Fucking Bargnani is a Knick.

    34. thenamestsam

      Hubert: Roy Hibbert puts up pretty much the same regular season every year.I think people are expecting his postseason form to replicate itself in the regular season, and that’s the primary reason they are getting overrated.

      If Roy Hibbert can produce the form he produced against us & Miami over 82 games, I concede they are probably a 57 win team.

      I just think it’s far more likely he’s going to play to the level he plays at consistently during the regular season.

      Except that last year he started very slow and then played very well over the end of the season and the playoffs. Certainly if he was a Knick we’d all be assuming that a young player (especially for a big man) had turned a corner and was coming into his own (a certain Iman Shumpert comes to mind).

      Any thoughts on that Danny Granger guy? Or the fact that they should have a real live NBA bench this year?

    35. er

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Get action against those Vegas numbers. I’m sure your fanboyism will override Vegas’s statistical projections.

      45-wins will be a good year for this team.

      Andrea Fucking Bargnani is a Knick.

      I wonder if you would be dumb enough to bet on that over/under

    36. thenamestsam

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Get action against those Vegas numbers. I’m sure your fanboyism will override Vegas’s statistical projections.

      45-wins will be a good year for this team.

      Andrea Fucking Bargnani is a Knick.

      Sorry to be clear which Vegas numbers are these? The ones that DRed made up? Or the actual ones that project us as the 5th best team in the East?

    37. er

      ess-dog:
      I think people here are overrating the Bulls a bit. Deng and Boozer will be a year older, and no one knows what Rose will come back looking like.

      Indy should be about as good as last year. They are a tough, young defensive team, but I don’t think they have a ton of growth potential at this point actually.

      Of course, either of those teams could swing a trade that might boost them up a bit, but I think the Knicks at full strength are right there with these two teams.

      With JR and Tyson at 100% and Kidd providing anything at all, I think we win that Indy series and the right to lose to the Heat, lol.

      Totally agree. DRose is coming off missing a YEAR of bball. People hardly ever speak on it, Deng was TERRIBLE in the playoffs last year and he may be declining. Still a bad offnese

    38. yoda4554

      Just want to point out–we didn’t get especially bad luck on the injury front last year. Anthony’d missed at least 10 games in three of his previous four seasons: 67 games is about what one should’ve projected for him (and should project again next year). Chandler had had, of his previous four seasons, two where he’d missed half the year and two where he’d played almost every game: 66 games, again, was about where he should’ve been projected (and should be next year). The cumulative health woes of the 35+ crew should not have surprised anyone; that we got as much out of them as we did is impressive. Felton missed a few weeks, but just about every team has a guy get a random injury and miss a few weeks.

      The only people who missed more time than might’ve been expected were Stoudemire and Shumpert. They were also, by +/- at least, the two worst players on the team last year, so it’s not necessarily clear that having them at full strength is going to help all that much.

    39. DRed

      thenamestsam: Except that last year he started very slow and then played very well over the end of the season and the playoffs. Certainly if he was a Knick we’d all be assuming that a young player (especially for a big man) had turned a corner and was coming into his own (a certain Iman Shumpert comes to mind).

      Any thoughts on that Danny Granger guy? Or the fact that they should have a real live NBA bench this year?

      Hibbert didn’t start slowly, he started hurt.

    40. Hubert

      thenamestsam:
      Any thoughts on that Danny Granger guy? Or the fact that they should have a real live NBA bench this year?

      My thoughts are up in 29. For some reason it needed to get moderated so it was put up late.

      Short version: I don’t think it’s that big a deal.

    41. er

      Hubert: My thoughts are up in 29.For some reason it needed to get moderated so it was put up late.

      Short version: I don’t think it’s that big a deal.

      Right. I think the supposed top 4 teams are being massively overhyped. Except Miami of course. Watch when the bulls have to deal with a shaky derrick rose and aint exactly lighting the world on fire. BSPN headlines will read, “Whats wrong with CHI?” LMAO cant wait

    42. jon abbey

      I don’t think the question with Chicago is personnel as much as it is cumulative wear and tear because Thibodeau kills his guys. that being said, on paper, they seem to have their best starting 5 since he’s been there: Rose, Butler, Deng, Boozer, Noah.

      also the Jared Zwerling chat just reminded me of something hilarious: why is no one mentioning in this Melo to the Lakers babble that D’Antoni is the Lakers coach (at least for now) and there is no way in hell Melo is going to play for him again?

    43. lavor postell

      yoda4554:
      Just want to point out–we didn’t get especially bad luck on the injury front last year.Anthony’d missed at least 10 games in three of his previous four seasons: 67 games is about what one should’ve projected for him (and should project again next year).Chandler had had, of his previous four seasons, two where he’d missed half the year and two where he’d played almost every game: 66 games, again, was about where he should’ve been projected (and should be next year).The cumulative health woes of the 35+ crew should not have surprised anyone; that we got as much out of them as we did is impressive.Felton missed a few weeks, but just about every team has a guy get a random injury and miss a few weeks.

      The only people who missed more time than might’ve been expected were Stoudemire and Shumpert.They were also, by +/- at least, the two worst players on the team last year, so it’s not necessarily clear that having them at full strength is going to help all that much.

      You don’t think Shump’s +/- is affected by his first two months starting in January where he was clearly still trying to 100% recover from? The same injury incurred on the same day as Derrick Rose who chose not to play last year so he could rehab to get to his best level.

      Somebody should go back and watch all of Kidd’s game film from the beginning of 2013 onwards. His effectively destroyed our offense as a whole with his inability to can open threes or threaten to do so in a way where his swing passing benefited the team as it did early in the season.

      One thing I have noticed about the majority of our acquisitios we’ve made last season into this season is that we clearly put a priority on low turnover players. So while we all argue about shooting inefficiency’s and PPP versus TS% and eFG% I think much of the Knicks’ decision on both ends of the floor is…

    44. Hubert

      By the way, while researching Danny Granger’s injury, I realized it sounds a lot like JR’s. Same part of the knee. Both started rather innocuously, too.

    45. Keniman Shumpwalker

      Hubert:
      By the way, while researching Danny Granger’s injury, I realized it sounds a lot like JR’s.Same part of the knee.Both started rather innocuously, too.

      That’s unsettling.

    46. Glew

      Honestly guys, what is the point of being a fan of a team without having some aspects of hope? It seems as though there are people that just automatically write off certain players for some reason and do their very best to prove the knicks were wrong for employing that player/strategy untill their fingers bleed. Don’t get me wrong I enjoying killing a ton of time at work reading people battle about the NBA. In my opinion, this knicks team should be as good or better than last year as we have gotten younger, more versatile and should have better chemistry and coaching next year (perhaps Woody will learn from his mistakes). In my mind, the knicks main issue is their health which is a huge issue for most teams. I really am curious though and would love to hear what keeps you (Dred, Jowles, etc.) from just either jumping ship or turning into a leisure fan? Is there anyone that is really just waiting/hoping for Melo to bounce so we can obtain new younger talent or something? Do you enjoys arguing for the sake of it or have a personal vendetta against those with optimisum? I am not asking for you to state your loyalty just merely how do you live by intentionally and consistently underselling this team and its moves?

    47. Hubert

      jon abbey:
      also the Jared Zwerling chat just reminded me of something hilarious: why is no one mentioning in this Melo to the Lakers babble that D’Antoni is the Lakers coach (at least for now) and there is no way in hell Melo is going to play for him again?

      Because they will probably fire him before the year is over. And they would definitely fire him to get LeBron and Melo.

    48. Hubert

      Hubert: Is there a further breakdown of this by team?I’m curious if they rate Houston so highly because they are factoring in Howard and Asik’s numbers as if they can both contribute them playing together next year.

      Actually, never mind. I just saw they predicted Indiana and New York to be the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference next year. I already wasted 5 seconds of my life looking at that, don’t want to waste more figuring out what the methodology is.

      You take that stuff seriously?

    49. er

      Hubert: Actually, never mind.I just saw they predicted Indiana and New York to be the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference next year.I already wasted 5 seconds of my life looking at that, don’t want to waste more figuring out what the methodology is.

      You take that stuff seriously?

      SMH whatever the methodology is, it SUCKS

    50. thenamestsam

      Hubert: Yes, I remember Danny Granger.

      Let’s talk about Danny Granger.

      Danny Granger has chronic knee problems.Danny Granger has missed 135 games over the course of the last 5 seasons.That’s over 1/3 of his team’s games he hasn’t been able to suit up for.

      Danny Granger has also never been as good at basketball as Amar’e Stoudemire is. He is more injury prone.And Amar’e is much farther along in his recovery process.

      So please, explain to me how Indiana getting Danny Granger back to replace Sam Young, Gerald Green, et al… is a bigger deal than us getting Amar’e Stoudemire back to replace all the minutes we wasted starting Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby, Ronnie Brewer, and James White?

      Career games played by season prior to last year: 78, 82, 80, 67, 62, 79, 62(out of 66) and he’d never missed a playoff game. You can chop up the numbers to make them look good for your point but he has never had serious injury issues prior to last year. I’m not sure calling that a chronic injury is really accurate.

      I have no idea why you would think Amare Stoudamire would be relevant to this discussion except for the fact that some people seem to think saying something positive about our rivals is akin to dissing the Knicks. It’s not. Me saying I expect the Pacers will be significantly better in next year’s regular season has exactly zero to do with hating on the Knicks or whatever you’re reading into it. Does Amare have anything to do with whether the Pacers will win 55 games next year?

    51. Hubert

      Well I did predict they win 54 games, so if you’re predicting 55 games I don’t see why we should argue.

      The point I was making was that I don’t think they passed us, which is why I was mentioning Amar’e.

    52. DRed

      Hubert: Is there a further breakdown of this by team?I’m curious if they rate Houston so highly because they are factoring in Howard and Asik’s numbers as if they can both contribute them playing together next year.

      The playing time allocations in that chart are pretty odd. Just looking at the Knicks, they’ve got us giving Bargs 26 minutes a night (4th most on the team), while JR gets 15. If that is what happens, then yes, we probably will be proper fucked, but I also don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.

    53. flossy

      Hubert: Actually, never mind.I just saw they predicted Indiana and New York to be the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference next year.I already wasted 5 seconds of my life looking at that, don’t want to waste more figuring out what the methodology is.

      You take that stuff seriously?

      I close my tab as soon as I saw the Knicks ranked below the goddamn 76ers, who are transparently trying to tank as hard as possible. I mean, really, that is just retarded.

    54. JK47

      The Knicks were 5th in the NBA in 3PT% and 1st in attempts last season, so it’s a little troubling that they’re losing 500 3-point attempts from Novak and Copeland, who both shot .420+ for the season from 3. The Knicks are also probably going to be without JR Smith for a while, and JR took 400+ 3-point attempts on his own.

      In the early part of the season at least, those shots are going to go to Iman Shumpert, Metta World Peace, Andrea Bargnani and possibly Tim Hardaway Jr. This could represent a massive dropoff in the Knicks’ 3-point shooting. Hopefully Shumpert can keep up the .400 mark he had in a small sample size last year and Bargnani can do a whole lot better than the .300-ish mark he has had over the last couple of seasons, or we’re going to be looking at a lot of bricks on the offensive end. Bricks that lead to long rebounds and transition buckets for the opposition.

      With a full season of Shump and the addition of MWP, the defense should be much improved, but I’m worried about the offense in light of JR’s surgery.

    55. DRed

      flossy: I close my tab as soon as I saw the Knicks ranked below the goddamn 76ers, who are transparently trying to tank as hard as possible.I mean, really, that is just retarded.

      Well, it’s a model. Any mathematical model you run isn’t going to know the sixers are transparently trying to tank. So why would you expect it to?

    56. thenamestsam

      DRed: Well, it’s a model.Any mathematical model you run isn’t going to know the sixers are transparently trying to tank.So why would you expect it to?

      Well I personally feel like the fact that they don’t really have any good players on their roster (Thaddeus Young excluded) should probably cause the model to rank them fairly low even without knowing explicitly that they’re tanking. I think it may have something to do with that mathematical model being altogether worthless.

    57. Hubert

      JK47:
      The Knicks were 5th in the NBA in 3PT% and 1st in attempts last season, so it’s a little troubling that they’re losing 500 3-point attempts from Novak and Copeland, who both shot .420+ for the season from 3.The Knicks are also probably going to be without JR Smith for a while, and JR took 400+ 3-point attempts on his own.

      That’s troubling. My most serious cause for concern next year is that last year was an anomaly and we will never try to play that way again. That we’re basically starting over this year.

    58. DRed

      Hubert: That’s troubling.My most serious cause for concern next year is that last year was an anomaly and we will never try to play that way again.That we’re basically starting over this year.

      This year will be different, but I think we should still be pretty good. I think Carmelo’s improved 3 point shooting is sustainable, if Shump can figure out to how to finish he has a chance to be a really terrific player, and Tyson will hopefully be healthier for longer. And there’s a chance we’ll be better on defense if Metta plays real minutes. I just don’t think we’ll be as good as we were last year, where we had a real chance of winning the whole thing if we hadn’t broken down at the end.

    59. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Glew: I am not asking for you to state your loyalty just merely how do you live by intentionally and consistently underselling this team and its moves?

      You ever date a girl who’s really hot, and you kind of know that she’s not as good as the exterior suggests, and definitely not as good as everyone says she is. And people are talking about her constantly, and you’re always thinking of things that represent the best side of her, never bothering to weigh them against all of the times when she is just that awful person you know that, at least some of the time, she is?

      And so you court her, and you try to figure her out, and she’s nice to you, lets you buy her stuff. You basically invest your time, energy, and money into the idea that she just might be better than you expect. But every time you make big plans, like, say a 10-day vacation in the middle of June, she bails. Always has some excuse, too, like, “My co-workers couldn’t help me enough to get the time off,” or, “I’m just a little tired and sore from all the things I’ve been doing,” or “I needed to go out to a strip club in Indiana until 4 AM, sorry babe.”

      Eventually you give the fuck up. In my case, you start realizing that the girl you’ve been fawning over is totally overrated, and it’s time to reevaluate the criteria you use to choose ‘em in the first place.

      But then everyone tries to run you out of town for not liking the hot girl anymore, so… whatever.

    60. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Hubert: Actually, never mind.I just saw they predicted Indiana and New York to be the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference next year.I already wasted 5 seconds of my life looking at that, don’t want to waste more figuring out what the methodology is.

      You take that stuff seriously?

      Bookmarked! We’ll talk in May.

    61. max fisher-cohen

      Hubert, the Lakers lost because they had no depth and lots of injuries. Steve Nash missed 32 games. Pau missed 33. Jordan Hill, who sadly was probably the team’s fifth best player, missed 53 games. Dwight only missed 6 but wasn’t anything close to himself until late in the season. Down the stretch, they were one of the best teams in the league — 29-12 to close out the season (58 win pace) — so who knows what would have happened had Kobe and Nash been healthy in the playoffs?

      The Nets are more of the Mavs before Cuban broke up the core — A ton of talent although a good portion of it past its prime. They have the depth to survive the kind of injuries you’d expect, and if Kidd manages the team right, Keeping Garnett and Pierce healthy by regularly them nights off and keeping them at about 25 MPG, they should be one of the last teams you want to play in the playoffs. They won’t be a favorite, and their record may not be amazing, but they will be damn scary.

      The one piece that’s stopping me from really buying into the hype is backup PG. Last year, Terry was that car that only starts when the weather is right. This year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him not start up at all.

      Don’t get me wrong — I think the Nets were stupid to give away so much for what is almost definitely a 1 year window — but I think this year they will really good.

    62. flossy

      DRed: Well, it’s a model.Any mathematical model you run isn’t going to know the sixers are transparently trying to tank.So why would you expect it to?

      Because “transparency” entailed trading away all of their decent players for garbage and drafting someone who won’t play for several months?

    63. flossy

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: But then everyone tries to run you out of town for not liking the hot girl anymore, so… whatever

      No. Every thinks you’re an asshole for not dumping the girl and moving on with your life, instead choosing to hang around to relentlessly bitch about her every flaw and berate those who don’t agree about how horrible she is, long after it’s become clear that neither she nor the people who do like her give any fucks about what you think of her or why.

    64. flossy

      flossy: No.Every thinks you’re an asshole for not dumping the girl and moving on with your life, instead choosing to hang around to relentlessly bitch about her every flaw and berate those who don’t agree about how horrible she is, long after it’s become clear that neither she nor the people who do like her give any fucks about what you think of her or why.

      Particularly since this girl, for all the ways you claim she’s personally done you wrong, seems to have actually lost your favor primarily because she nor most of her other admirers subscribe to the same fringe ideology as you.

    65. max fisher-cohen

      @JK47 Missing JR IMO will be a huge problem for NY. It’s not just the volume of threes, it’s where he takes them, how much space he needs to get them off, and how good he is at attacking hard closeouts.

      Last season, Smith took only about 5% of his 3s from the much easier corners, from which the NBA average is over 40%. This allowed Shumpert and Kidd to shoot nearly 20% of their shots from the corners and Novak to shoot close to 30% of his shots from that same spot. Without JR, someone else is going to have to space the floor from the angle or top of the key, and they are unlikely to do it as well as JR.

      Add in the fact that JR not only has a super-fast release, but that he also can attack off the dribble, and he obligates teams to play him really close. No one else on the Knicks creates near the amount of off ball attention as Smith. Novak didn’t even do that due to his inability to dribble drive. This is going to allow teams to more comfortably put pressure on the ball and ease their recoveries to the more profitable corner three spots. It will also force Shumpert or Bargnani — whoever plays in JR’s spot on the floor — to create off the dribble, which IMO is asking for toruble.

    66. max fisher-cohen

      As far as the monthly recurring conversation about what it is to be a true fan goes, I don’t see the difference between irrationally thinking the players will get better and irrationally thinking management will one day operate more smartly. In both cases, you just want the team to win. You’re just investing your helpless little fan emotions in different aspects of that team.

    67. cgreene

      max fisher-cohen:
      Hubert, the Lakers lost because they had no depth and lots of injuries. Steve Nash missed 32 games. Pau missed 33. Jordan Hill, who sadly was probably the team’s fifth best player, missed 53 games. Dwight only missed 6 but wasn’t anything close to himself until late in the season. Down the stretch, they were one of the best teams in the league — 29-12 to close out the season (58 win pace) — so who knows what would have happened had Kobe and Nash been healthy in the playoffs?

      The Nets are more of the Mavs before Cuban broke up the core — A ton of talent although a good portion of it past its prime. They have the depth to survive the kind of injuries you’d expect, and if Kidd manages the team right, Keeping Garnett and Pierce healthy by regularly them nights off and keeping them at about 25 MPG, they should be one of the last teams you want to play in the playoffs. They won’t be a favorite, and their record may not be amazing, but they will be damn scary.

      The one piece that’s stopping me from really buying into the hype is backup PG. Last year, Terry was that car that only starts when the weather is right. This year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him not start up at all.

      Don’t get me wrong — I think the Nets were stupid to give away so much for what is almost definitely a 1 year window — but I think this year they will really good.

      You realize you sound exactly like a defender of the Knicks from last season right? I mean….

    68. jon abbey

      yeah, JR’s recovery time will be huge. I still would love to somehow get Nate Robinson to fill in for him in that role until he’s back up to speed.

    69. max fisher-cohen

      @cgreene

      I was relatively optimistic after the Knicks acquired Carmelo even though I though it seemed like we gave more than we needed to. Once I became more familiar with Melo’s game, and especially once Stoudemire’s body fell apart, I lost confidence. Once I lost faith in the core, the supporting cast didn’t matter. I haven’t seen the same chemistry issues with Brooklyn. Maybe I will next season though…

      You’re right though that the Nets are extremely similar to the Knicks. The main difference is the Nets were bad for longer and accumulated a pretty huge cache of assets, so they had more to give away as they built their aging team of mercenaries. They have better old guys than we did. Still, you’re right, it could end up a very entertaining train wreck in brooklyn if Garnett has a Marcus Camby style season and Pierce follows the trajectory of Jason Kidd last year.

    70. Hubert

      MFC, I don’t expect them to be like the Lakers. In my predictions above I have them as a 52 win team.

      The difference between them and those Mavs teams, though, – and it’s a really huge difference IMO – is Dirk was always a top 10 player, whereas Brooklyn’s best player is Deron Williams and I’m not convinced he is a top 20 player.

      The only similarity I see between the nets and lakers is that I expect strife between the main guy and the new guys.

    71. flossy

      Hubert: If when we talk in May the Knicks & Pacers are the worst two teams in the East, I will buy in completely.

      Hell, if that happens I’ll get Dave Berri’s face tattooed on my ass.

    72. cgreene

      Max, I was talking about your Lakers comments more specifically. The bottom line about the Nets IMO is that Paul Pierce was simply no longer a good basketball player on either end in last year’s playoffs. His TS was 484. His ws was minus. His PER was 10. He didn’t rebound. The only thing he did well was pass. If it was clear to me that anyone is at the Jason Kidd edge it is PP. he shouldn’t even start over AK47. But he will. Just looking at straight match ups I actually think the small ball starting lineup really hurt the Knicks against the Nets bc JJ could post our 2. I think now in a traditional lineup even w Melo at the 4 and Ron at the 3 the Knicks matchup well because you can switch Ron onto KG on D so he can’t push Melo around.

    73. cgreene

      More in that thought with the following big minutes lineup:
      PG Dw vs Ray
      SG jj vs Shumpert
      SF pp vs Ron
      PF kg vs Melo
      C brook vs Tyson

      Knicks don’t double team at all on defense. Melo still requires a double in the other end. Advantage Knicks. Sub AK for PP Nets may actually have advantage.

    74. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Bookmarked! We’ll talk in May.

      You’re mendacious to the core.

      Every prediction that I’ve seen you make about individuals players has been dead wrong, while every copy and pasted team WP prediction has been completely specious in retrospect.

      Last year the Knicks were predicted by WP to win games largely because of Ronnie Brewer averaging 28 mpg and producing .182 WP/48 and Marcus Camby producing .258 WP on an average of 14 minutes a game — those were two of the team’s 4 star players (Kidd and Chandler being the other two).

      Dead fucking wrong, dude.

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/30/the-full-monty-win-predictions-for-the-2012-13-nba-season/

    75. ruruland

      max fisher-cohen:
      @cgreene

      I was relatively optimistic after the Knicks acquired Carmelo even though I though it seemed like we gave more than we needed to. Once I became more familiar with Melo’s game, and especially once Stoudemire’s body fell apart, I lost confidence. Once I lost faith in the core, the supporting cast didn’t matter. I haven’t seen the same chemistry issues with Brooklyn. Maybe I will next season though…

      You’re right though that the Nets are extremely similar to the Knicks. The main difference is the Nets were bad for longer and accumulated a pretty huge cache of assets, so they had more to give away as they built their aging team of mercenaries. They have better old guys than we did. Still, you’re right, it could end up a very entertaining train wreck in brooklyn if Garnett has a Marcus Camby style season and Pierce follows the trajectory of Jason Kidd last year.

      You aren’t making sense.

      The Knicks won 54 games and took a team that nearly beat Miami to 6 games while missing all the production of a max salary slot, while both Chandler and Melo were playing injured.

      How is that an indictment on the core, which is really Melo?

      He’s not Lebron, Durant, or Paul, is that the problem?

    76. ruruland

      max fisher-cohen:
      As far as the monthly recurring conversation about what it is to be a true fan goes, I don’t see the difference between irrationally thinking the players will get better and irrationally thinking management will one day operate more smartly. In both cases, you just want the team to win. You’re just investing your helpless little fan emotions in different aspects of that team.

      So stale, bro.

    77. ruruland

      DRed: This year will be different, but I think we should still be pretty good.I think Carmelo’s improved 3 point shooting is sustainable, if Shump can figure out to how to finish he has a chance to be a really terrific player, and Tyson will hopefully be healthier for longer.And there’s a chance we’ll be better on defense if Metta plays real minutes.I just don’t think we’ll be as good as we were last year, where we had a real chance of winning the whole thing if we hadn’t broken down at the end.

      What part is not sustainable to you or in what area will the Knicks slip the most next season?

    78. ruruland

      jon abbey:
      I don’t think the question with Chicago is personnel as much as it is cumulative wear and tear because Thibodeau kills his guys. that being said, on paper, they seem to have their best starting 5 since he’s been there: Rose, Butler, Deng, Boozer, Noah.

      also the Jared Zwerling chat just reminded me of something hilarious: why is no one mentioning in this Melo to the Lakers babble that D’Antoni is the Lakers coach (at least for now) and there is no way in hell Melo is going to play for him again?

      I’d say there is almost no chance Melo leaves New York on his own volition.

    79. JK47

      ruruland: What part is not sustainable to you or in what area will the Knicks slip the most next season?

      I would say the Knicks’ 3-point shooting from last year, when they were 5th in 3P% and 1st in attempts, could possibly get a lot worse. You’re subtracting 400+ shots of .420 3P% because of the departures or Novak and Copeland, and nobody really knows when JR Smith will be back. Maybe Bargnani steps up, or maybe he shoots around .300 from three like he has in two straight seasons now. That worries me.

      I do think the defense will improve, but I’ll be surprised if this Knicks team is a top 5 offense again.

    80. ruruland

      JK47: I would say the Knicks’ 3-point shooting from last year, when they were 5th in 3P% and 1st in attempts, could possibly get a lot worse. You’re subtracting 400+ shots of .420 3P% because of the departures or Novak and Copeland, and nobody really knows when JR Smith will be back. Maybe Bargnani steps up, or maybe he shoots around .300 from three like he has in two straight seasons now. That worries me.

      I do think the defense will improve, but I’ll be surprised if this Knicks team is a top 5 offense again.

      Yeah, I think it’s fair to speculate that the 3pt % will go down. Knicks should have more creation, so it’ll be interesting to see how that affects all the other aspects of the offense.

      MWP and AB both are low TO players capable of creating shots, so how does that change some of the situations where Novak was on the floor.

      I really liked mfc’s analysis on 3-pt shot spatial distribution, but is it possible that guys like JR start to get a higher proportion of the corner/ open spot-ups shots?

      What’s the affect on the offense if Amar’es minutes are doubled from last season?

    81. DRed

      JK47: I would say the Knicks’ 3-point shooting from last year, when they were 5th in 3P% and 1st in attempts, could possibly get a lot worse. You’re subtracting 400+ shots of .420 3P% because of the departures or Novak and Copeland, and nobody really knows when JR Smith will be back. Maybe Bargnani steps up, or maybe he shoots around .300 from three like he has in two straight seasons now. That worries me.

      I do think the defense will improve, but I’ll be surprised if this Knicks team is a top 5 offense again.

      Pretty much what he said. We lost a lot of offense, we’ll probably turn it over a bit more, and we’re a year older. Most of our good players on on the wrong side of their primes, and I don’t think our injury issues were unlucky.

    82. ruruland

      DRed: Pretty much what he said.We lost a lot of offense, we’ll probably turn it over a bit more, and we’re a year older.Most of our good players on on the wrong side of their primes, and I don’t think our injury issues were unlucky.

      Certainly fair.

    83. Unreason

      I’m already so looking forward to Nix Nyets. I don’t know who’s gonna be better this year. I am certain, though, that I will care a great freakin’ deal who wins each and every game. Wins will be sweet enough to give me a toothache. Utterly dominating blowout wins will feel even better. Losses will feel like absolute shit.

      I want to see Knicks smiling and talking to KG as he bites his lip and looks away right before they throw in the towel and pull him in 4th quarters. I want to see PP squirm in disgust as DWill takes and misses the crucial last shot he’d have a much better chance of nailing. I want to see TC assist Lopez in digesting the word Spalding repeatedly. I really do.

    84. SeeWhyDee77

      I’ve seen people say we should definitely bring in a Gooden or bring Kmart back or we shoulda went harder after Dalembert. While at least 2 of those 3 moves would be great, I think the best move to make would be to bring Jeffries back or see about Brandan Wright. I don’t think Kmart, Gooden or Dalembert would take sitting at the end of the bench well. And if Stat and Bargnani are healthy, I don’t think those guys get minutes over those 2- assuming MWP starts. Maybe Bargnani loses playing time to Kmart, but even though he’s not nearly as good a defender, if Bargnani is healthy and presumably producing I can’t justify Kmart taking minutes away from him. I think if MWP starts and both Stat and Bargnani anchor that second unit, there will be less pressure on Bargs, allowing him to play free and not worry so much. If healthy in that scenario, I hae faith that teams will have a hard time defending him. As I said in an earlier thread, his best teammate has been Bosh this far. A healthy Stat is better IMO (especially with his new post up game), and Melo certainly is better. In addition to that, he’ll have JR to steal attention..and MWP, Shump, an Chandler to help on defense. I don’t expect Bargnani to suddenly live up to his #1 draft pick status, but the table is set for him to become a better Bargnani without the weight of a franchise on his shoulders. Who knows? Maybe he’ll surprise us all and defend and rebound more. When they asked him to in Toronto he made a serious effort and came up with 6.2 boards and 1.1 blocks per. 6.2 is bad for a 7 footer..but the point I’m trying to make is they asked and he worked at it. Maybe MWP can take him around to some playgrounds and he toughens up lol. I do think being around Chandler, MWP, and Woodson will inspire him to be a more consistent ‘big man’. We’ll see.

    85. Brian Cronin

      I think the offense will get worse but the defense will improve and I’d rather have a top 10 offense and top 10 defense than a top 3 offense and 18th ranked defense.

    86. jon abbey

      we never had a chance for Dalembert unless he was going to take less money for some reason, we don’t have a chance at anyone over the vet minimum after signing Prigioni and Artest, and we wouldn’t have much space even without those two.

      I kind of like the poker game NY seems to be playing with these last spots, although I don’t know what the holdup is with K-Mart.

    87. ess-dog

      Well it looks like Jeremy Tyler has been invited to training camp. He seems to have a nice offensive game.

      I like the idea of having a few young risk guys on the bench. I hope we also sign Darius Morris as a bench guard. I always liked his game. Although this Bobby Brown character will probably get the 3rd pg spot.

    88. lavor postell

      Brian Cronin:
      I think the offense will get worse but the defense will improve and I’d rather have a top 10 offense and top 10 defense than a top 3 offense and 18th ranked defense.

      This +1000.

    89. lavor postell

      ess-dog:
      Well it looks like Jeremy Tyler has been invited to training camp. He seems to have a nice offensive game.

      I like the idea of having a few young risk guys on the bench. I hope we also sign Darius Morris as a bench guard. I always liked his game. Although this Bobby Brown character will probably get the 3rd pg spot.

      Inviting Tyler just seems like a no brainer given his physical talent. I watched Morris a ton in college and he reminded me of a poor man’s Andre Miller, which is to stay found crafty ways to get in to the lane and finish or create for others. There’s a reason THJR’s best season in terms of pure shooting numbers were from his freshman year when Morris was one of the best assist men in the country.

      His numbers from his sophmore year were staggering considering outside of Hardaway he was creating for Zach Novak and Stuart Douglass.

      http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/darius-morris-1.html

      TS% – .545
      eFG% – .509
      AST% – 44.2
      TOV% – 17.6
      USG% – 27.3
      ORtg – 111.4
      DRtg – 101.8
      WS/40 -.174

      This is also after a first year where he was not ready to carry Michigan through a pretty stacked Big Ten and his numbers were abysmal. I think going to the Lakers was terrible for him, but I still think he could have some potential, still only 22. Idk maybe I’m being a homer a little right pulling for the Wolverine, but I think he could be a decent value.

      He’s also the kind of guy that might benefit from going overseas for a couple of years and getting more consistent time and seasoning. A more reliable and consistent perimeter stroke would also help greatly.

    90. massive

      I think we can get to a top 5 defense this year, honestly. I thought it was possible last season, but the small-ball back-court thing really hurt us. Honestly, Iman Shumpert is such a critical part of our defense, I think getting him back to guarding the opposing team’s best guard will do enough for us to catapult our defense at least 10 spots. Remember how stagnant the offense got when Felton was out, and it seemed like the only way we could generate any semblance of offense was through Carmelo Anthony? Shumpert has the ability to do that to other team’s offenses, except most teams in the league don’t have a Carmelo Anthony to bail them out. You get 70 games out of Iman Shumpert (and Tyson) and you can expect a top notch defense. I put a lot of Tyson’s struggles on the back-court’s inability to deny penetration. Shump makes everybody’s job easier. When there’s no penetration, there’s no need to react and recover, which means less switching on and off that leads to the high eFG% we gave up last season. Between Shumpert, Artest, and Chandler, we have some really good players to build a defense around.

      I’m hoping the interest in Austin Daye is legitimate. We can do a lot worse than Austin Daye on a minimum contract. Like James White.

    91. Brian Cronin

      You know I’m a supporter of that plan. Shump is such a key to the defense when they let him play in the backcourt. Penetration destroyed the Knicks last year and Shump can help stop it.

      I don’t know about top 5 but certainly they should be a top 10 defense which is a major step-up from last year.

    92. yellowboy90

      Iwouldn’t mind Daye either but that would mean either Murry or Brown is out with Tyler gettting a spot.

      Anyone know what’s up with Beno Udria?

      I liked what Murry does but his floater needs work and I don’t like him letting players get by him so he can reach for the ball.

    93. SeeWhyDee77

      I think Leslie can be an ace for us defensively. He’s quick an crazy long. If we can get a serious commitment from him on the defensive end, then we may be able to afford to bring in a guy like Daye as opposed to Jeffries. If there are any defensive minded bigs left on the market, then we should bring him in as long as he fits in minutes wise. Other than that, if Leslie shows defensively then adding Daye, Tyler, and Jennings won’t hurt. I saw where Houston brought Brooks back, and we still need a 3rd PG. At this point, I don’t see Nate coming in unless he’s desperate for a deal, so why not bring Boobie Gibson in before Washington or Memphis or the Clips scoop him up? I think he’s probably the most logical choice left.

    94. max fisher-cohen

      @ruru

      First, the condescension thing is weak. Don’t play that game.

      Second, I don’t give out handicaps to teams that have sunken salary into injured or washed up players. As we tweeted about, the problem to me has never been Melo, whom I feel is in the top half of players with max salaries. It’s been about the context of the team, about management’s lack of a coherent vision. What if we could substitute Stoudemire for, say, Danilo Gallinari and George Hill? Then I’d say we have a title contender — not a favorite — but definitely a team that with a little luck could get a ring.

      TBH, seeing as you are apparently more loyal to Anthony than to any team, I don’t see why you aren’t more irritated by that lack of vision as well as it will likely end up damning Anthony’s legacy to that of forgettable or worse a selfish player, whether or not he deserves it.

      The bottom line is that Stoudemire was always extremely ill fit to play with Anthony, and even if he adapts into Nene offensively, a miracle in and of itself, his defense will always prevent him from flourishing as a secondary scoring threat. That’s something that smart management should have foreseen and easily could have dealt with two years ago when STAT still had value. They were too bullheaded or starstruck to make that choice though.

      In the same way, smart management could have foreseen that you can always roll talented players over into younger, cheaper assets, and that if the Nuggets wanted too high a price for Anthony — not too high for his talent but too high for the Knicks to retain the assets to build a contender — that Gallinari, Stoudemire, and Chandler could have been moved for younger, cheaper assets and the team could have waited for the right deal to come along or another star, equal or superior in talent to Anthony, to join the team in free agency.

    95. danvt

      Please don’t try to be Thomas B. This misses any type of metaphorical point and also manages to be misogynistic. Is the “hot girl” JR? Or the team? Is “everybody”, the twenty die hards that post here in July? I know it’s not Steven A Smith. This piece also implies that you like the Knicks or have been taken in by them, which, I can’t imagine. Finally, it implies that you’ve dated a “hot girl” which seems far fetched as well. Ok maybe that’s hitting below the belt. Sorry.

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: You ever date a girl who’s really hot, and you kind of know that she’s not as good as the exterior suggests, and definitely not as good as everyone says she is. And people are talking about her constantly, and you’re always thinking of things that represent the best side of her, never bothering to weigh them against all of the times when she is just that awful person you know that, at least some of the time, she is?

      And so you court her, and you try to figure her out, and she’s nice to you, lets you buy her stuff. You basically invest your time, energy, and money into the idea that she just might be better than you expect. But every time you make big plans, like, say a 10-day vacation in the middle of June, she bails. Always has some excuse, too, like, “My co-workers couldn’t help me enough to get the time off,” or, “I’m just a little tired and sore from all the things I’ve been doing,” or “I needed to go out to a strip club in Indiana until 4 AM, sorry babe.”

      Eventually you give the fuck up. In my case, you start realizing that the girl you’ve been fawning over is totally overrated, and it’s time to reevaluate the criteria you use to choose ‘em in the first place.

      But then everyone tries to run you out of town for not liking the hot girl anymore, so… whatever.

    96. ruruland

      MFC, I respect you, and I think a lot of your posts are really good and your general premise has validity, I guess I just can’t handle talking about the 2010 Melo/Amar’e thing anymore and I think the farther we move away from it the less relevant it is.

      Yes, the Knicks made their bed and are sleeping in it. They should have been more prudent in the Amar’e signing and taken into account the risks of long-term injury, they should have had a better plan to bring a point guard that would blend Amar’e and Melo. They should have retained more of their assets so that they could leverage them for future deals to bring that player aboard.

      But we’re talking about a team that produced 54 wins despite a worst case scenario w/Amar’e.

      A team that could be better next season, and in just two short years will be able to add at least one true max player to a core of, presumably, Melo and Shumpert.

      It is not clear that primarily building through the draft is the optimal way to build a winning franchise in New York, not when time after time we see the franchise able to lure players for under market contracts because they want to play in NY (Bobby Brown looks like he’ll be next).

      I don’t even think it’s really clear that it’s the most effective model for any NBA team. Nor do I do think that any team operates in just one mode (draft, fa).

      Every deal should be looked at independently. And I don’t think there’s a single person who would argue that the Knicks have given away too little in trades.

      However, a smaller market team isn’t going to attract the kind of role players the Knicks can to patch together a strong supporting cast.

      The Knicks will always be able to attract some of the best free agents. That’s an advantage they have over much of the league.

      That doesn’t mean they should give away draft picks. We both agree with that. But I’m afraid you’ve stretched your premise too far.

    97. massive

      I think the Knicks’ biggest mistake was not declining the team option on Chauncey Billups. If we decline that option, we still have the ability to sign Tyson Chandler and we could have used the amnesty clause on Stoudemire to free up some more wiggle room. There was no way the Knicks could have cut Stoudemire after the 2011 season without looking like heartless bastards. We’ll need a lot of things to break right this year to win two playoff series, but I have faith in our team like I always do.

    98. Vinny L.

      Has anyone noticed the development of the Knicks organizations scapegoat/blame Shump strategy starting after the Knicks loss to Indiana?

      It all started with the Knicks organizations lackeys in media “reporting” on how it was anybody but Melo’s fault that the Knicks lost to Indiana. Its just that “he didn’t have enough good players surrounding him that he could trust.”

      Chandler, Felton, and Shump was targeted by this media campaign. After getting abused by Hibbert, and committing the cardinal sin of criticizing Melo, Chandler was called a bum who needed to be traded.

      Felton was called a substandard starting PG, and an out of shape bum who needed to be traded. Shump was called a young prospect who just didn’t have “it” yet, and who had a lot to work on, even after his 3 & D heroics vs Indiana game 6. His barrage of 3′s in that 3rd quarter almost defeated the referees goal of handing that game to Indiana.

      Since that Indiana loss, the steady drum beat against Chandler and Felton has died down some what. In the case of Shump, the organized preemptive strike in the service of defending Carmelo has worked in that it has deflected valid criticism of Melo on to Shump: Instead of Carmelo and JR Smith -the two so called leaders- going to Summer scrub League, supposedly to learn how to be PG’s and team players, Shump is sent there for this reason. Hmmmm

      Carmelo’s Playoff Assist Per Game%: 1.6 Assist per… And the ball is always in his hands

      JR: 1.4 assist per

      Lebron’s Playoff Assist Per Game%: 6.6 per

      Dwyane Wade: 4.8

      I fully understand why Shump is upset.

    99. Vinny L.

      J.R. Smith blocking the Nate Rob – Knick reunion with one of his Euro pals??

      “Brown: Knicks could make offer Friday”

      Quote:

      Brown said he would feel at home in New York, as he knows fellow CAA clients Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. “J.R.’s my boy and we play together in the Drew League,” Brown said.

      He also has known ex-Knick Baron Davis since Brown was 8 years old. Davis is still involved with the team. – Jared Zwerling

      http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/knicks/post/_/id/47296/bobby-brown-knicks-could-make-offer-friday

      How can the Knicks say they have concerns about Nate Rob stepping on J.R.’s feet and then sign one of his shoot first buddies (Bobby Brown)?

    100. Vinny L.

      Mavs forced to waive Bernard James

      The 6-foot-10 center was the 33rd overall pick out of Florida State and a former staff sergeant in the Air Force with three tours of duty overseas. James, 28, started 11 games for the Mavericks last season and averaged 2.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 0.8 blocks. His per-36 production as a rookie — 10.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.0 blocks per game — suggests his game has potential.

      http://espn.go.com/dallas/nba/story/_/id/9494961/sources-dallas-mavericks-waive-bernard-james

    101. ruruland

      Vinny L.:
      Has anyone noticed the development of the Knicks organizations scapegoat/blame Shump strategy starting after the Knicks loss to Indiana?

      It all started with the Knicks organizations lackeys in media “reporting” on how it was anybody but Melo’s fault that the Knicks lost to Indiana. Its just that “he didn’t have enough good players surrounding him that he could trust.”

      Chandler, Felton, and Shump was targeted by this media campaign. After getting abused by Hibbert, and committing the cardinal sin of criticizing Melo, Chandler was called a bum who needed to be traded.

      Felton was called a substandard starting PG, and an out of shape bum who needed to be traded. Shump was called a young prospect who just didn’t have “it” yet, and who had a lot to work on, even after his 3 & D heroics vs Indiana game 6. His barrage of 3?s in that 3rd quarter almost defeated the referees goal of handing that game to Indiana.

      Since that Indiana loss, the steady drum beat against Chandler and Felton has died down some what. In the case of Shump, the organized preemptive strike in the service of defending Carmelo has worked in that it has deflected valid criticism of Melo on to Shump: Instead of Carmelo and JR Smith -the two so called leaders- going to Summer scrub League, supposedly to learn how to be PG’s and team players, Shump is sent there for this reason. Hmmmm

      Carmelo’s Playoff Assist Per Game%: 1.6 Assist per… And the ball is always in his hands

      JR: 1.4 assist per

      Lebron’s Playoff Assist Per Game%: 6.6 per

      Dwyane Wade: 4.8

      I fully understand why Shump is upset.

      Shump is upset?

    102. jon abbey

      massive:
      I think the Knicks’ biggest mistake was not declining the team option on Chauncey Billups. If we decline that option, we still have the ability to sign Tyson Chandler

      we’ve been over this a lot, this isn’t true. Billups had a $3.7M buyout if his option wasn’t picked up which would have counted against the cap and left NY with around $8M under the cap to spend.

    103. massive

      jon abbey: we’ve been over this a lot, this isn’t true. Billups had a $3.7M buyout if his option wasn’t picked up which would have counted against the cap and left NY with around $8M under the cap to spend.

      I’m sure we could have done more to get Tyson his money. We got rid of Ronny Turiaf and paid him a deal that started at $14 million that season, so maybe he takes $11 million instead of the $14 million. Maybe we throw Balkman into the Turiaf deal and still offer him a deal around $13-14 million. Considering that his contract doesn’t have any raises in it, I’m sure the Knicks could have thrown in raises over the same 4 year period to get Tyson Chandler. We cut Chauncey and getting Tyson is still doable.

    104. Z

      massive: I’m sure we could have done more to get Tyson his money. We got rid of Ronny Turiaf and paid him a deal that started at $14 million that season, so maybe he takes $11 million instead of the $14 million. Maybe we throw Balkman into the Turiaf deal and still offer him a deal around $13-14 million. Considering that his contract doesn’t have any raises in it, I’m sure the Knicks could have thrown in raises over the same 4 year period to get Tyson Chandler. We cut Chauncey and getting Tyson is still doable.

      I think the knicks gave billups a verbal promise to exercise his option so that he wouldn’t hold up the Carmelo trade (he was refusing to report to Jersey, if I recall)

    105. Z-man

      flossy: No.Every thinks you’re an asshole for not dumping the girl and moving on with your life, instead choosing to hang around to relentlessly bitch about her every flaw and berate those who don’t agree about how horrible she is, long after it’s become clear that neither she nor the people who do like her give any fucks about what you think of her or why.

      Great answer.

      Although I admit I have a morbid attraction to the relentless bitching. Whatever.

    106. Jack Bauer

      Too much bitching. The Knicks should be better next year, let’s see how it plays out a little before all the doomsday predictions. Don’t go all Negative Nancy just yet.

    107. Z-man

      I really don’t get where the Shump story is coming from. How certain is it that Dolan is super-pissed that Shump did not want to do summer league? To the point of wanting him traded? That sounds very far-fetched, even for Dolan.

    108. Brian Cronin

      Dolan is an awful big douche. So yes, while don’t get me wrong, it does seem hard to believe, I wouldn’t put anything past him.

    109. Brian Cronin

      And Isola is just taking the sure fire trolling method. It is popular with NY beat writers. You want people to pay attention to you and read your articles, so even if they’re reading it out of hatred, they’re still reading it.

    110. JK47

      So, what over-the-hill veteran will Shumpert be converted into? Vince Carter? Yeah, probably Vince Carter.

    111. massive

      JK47:
      So, what over-the-hill veteran will Shumpert be converted into?Vince Carter?Yeah, probably Vince Carter.

      I was hoping Shumpert/Felton for Rondo. Then I remembered we’re the Knicks and then thought Jameer Nelson would be more fitting for our storyline.

    112. massive

      To be clear, I wasn’t hoping we’d trade Iman Shumpert for Rajon Rondo. That would hurt me emotionally. I’m just saying the Knicks would be the type of team to turn an asset into a “he’s bad, but we hope he’ll contribute for us and then expire in 2015″ type of player.

    113. jon abbey

      Shumpie is my favorite Knick in decades, but this team should probably trade him for Rondo if that were possible (doubtful). Melo/Rondo and a hopefully rejuvenated Chandler is a core with potential to make a real run.

    114. Brian Cronin

      If they ever were to trade Shump, I guess Rondo would be one of the few players it might make sense at the moment to acquire. But I’d honestly rather like to see if Shump can continue his offensive evolution this season. If he does, then he’s possibly even more valuable than Rondo! I doubt Boston trades Rondo until he returns (as they figure that they’ll get more money once he’s actually proven he is healthy and playing in games) so they have time to evaluate Shump more.

    115. max fisher-cohen

      ruru

      I won’t address the Knicks potential other than to say that I’m less optimistic, not that I would feel like I was dreaming if they won 54 again next year, but it’s not something I expect. I don’t necessarily feel that NYC has done much for the Knicks to attract guys other than natives like JR and MWP. Winning and potential seem to do more to attract the best free agents.

      I don’t think NY has to be like OKC. It’d be cool if they could be something similar to the Lakers under Buss Sr. though, willing to take risks when the time is right. I mean, the 1996 Lakers won 53 games with a middle-aged roster, and then blew the whole thing up because they saw the team was approaching its ceiling, trading a 27 year old Vlade Divac for the 13th pick in the draft and letting All-Star Cedric Ceballos walk so as to preserve cap room, which they were able to turn into Shaq.

      What would the Knicks do in this situation? Not much. As we are seeing this summer.

      This is not the only instance of NY being unable to see the bigger picture or else just satisfied with a pretty good team more or less at its ceiling — think back to the Allan Houston signing in 2001 — nor is it the only instance of LA doing the opposite: giving up a good team in the hope of crafting a great one — gambling on Bynum and trading Shaq is another great example.

      The last few times the Knicks traded an older player who was still putting up good numbers for younger assets, were the Nazr Mohammed trade, which eventually got them Lee, and then 1998 when they traded Oakley for Camby and Starks for Sprewell. They went on to make the finals the very next year.

      It’s not about picks. It’s about recognizing the life cycle of players and that even in NY, you can’t just buy a championship team. It’s about not being satisfied with a 1 in 100 chance at a title.

    116. Z-man

      mfc,
      I really don’t get the either-or comparison you are making. First, the salary cap structure has changed pretty significantly since the Lakers and Knicks moves you bring up. Second, we will be in a better position to make those kind of moves during the next couple of years than we have been in a lo-o-o-ong time, and are competitive to boot.

      Melo and Chandler have market value close to their remaining contracts, so they won’t be just expirings. Same is probably true for Felton and JR, and Prigs. Shump, Leslie, Hardaway and Tyler represent young guys with potential. Can’t complain at all about the MWP signing.

      Amare is an albatross but that is old news, and there is a reasonable chance that he will be a very productive player in limited minutes. Then next year he becomes a huge expiring.

      The X-factor is Bargnani, and how bad of a risk is he? A 7-footer with dynamic offensive skills on a 2-year deal. There is the glass half-empty or half-full look at this guy; I think he is going to be a much better player here than he was in Toronto. Some blind faith involved, but more about how the change in role, a competitive team, better health, etc. will work in favor of improvement. Still, it is not a long-term albatross kind of move and he should have value beyond being an expiring next year.

    117. Frank O.

      jon abbey:
      Shumpie is my favorite Knick in decades, but this team should probably trade him for Rondo if that were possible (doubtful). Melo/Rondo and a hopefully rejuvenated Chandler is a core with potential to make a real run.

      I mused about this a while back. Rondo running this team would be pretty amazing to see.

    118. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      So flossy, how mad are you that I don’t agree with your basketball worldview? You sound pretty mad, dude. Just how mad, though?

    119. max fisher-cohen

      Z-Man

      Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying the Knicks are the worst run team in the universe. I just think they could do a lot better and I see our complacency over the last few years as a sign that we’re slipping into old habits of buy high, sell low, which will almost inevitably lead to us slipping back to a perennial 25-45 win team.

      Sitting on the SToudemire/Melo pairing, wasting the amnesty on Billups, signing guys in their late 30s to long term contracts, throwing a pick into the Bargnani deal are all small things, but these things eat away at your ceiling bit by bit until you’re like the 11/12 Magic, and your trading for freakin’ Gilbert Arenas in a desperate attempt to keep your star happy.

      Add in the things the knicks refuse to do and the picture is pretty troubling. Yes, Chandler and Melo are still valuable, but will they be in a year or two? Maybe. Will they be in 2015? Possibly. If you believe Melo will still be a top 20 player in 2017, when he’s 33, that’s fair. Keep him. But arguing the same for Chandler even in 2015 is not sensible IMO. Guys fall off cliffs in their 30s. Chandler may not, but he’s likely to, so why is he still on the team? Move him for someone that will still be worth something in 2015 when we’re trying to be a real title contender.

      The same could be said of the 29 y/o Ray Felton. How will he look at 31 or 32? Devin Harris, Kirk Hinrich, Mo Williams, Barbosa, Tinsley and Jameer Nelson’s 30 birthdays haven’t been too kind to them. So why did we commit to him through 2016?

      All these commitments for the Knicks will likely add up in the short term to 1-2 extra playoff series wins. That’s it. Yet cumulatively, they do a good bit of damage to the Knicks’ future possibilities.

      So no, I”m not saying blow the team up, but more run the team responsibly. You’ll never be able to afford that house if you eat out every night. You know what I’m saying?

    120. Z-man

      Re the guys in their late 30′s on long-term contracts, those contracts are all gone after 1 year, every one of them.

      Re Chandler, he is very likely to be valuable and tradable for the next two years. Beyond that, there has been no indication whatsoever that GG plans to re-sign him, and I seriously doubt that he will. And why trade him now when any replacement will be a downgrade? The team was a tough second round exit last year, why conclude that it is time to “sell high?” It is really a jaded view to talk about Chandler when he is 33 or beyond, he surely won’t be here, at least not for the money he is getting paid now.

      Felton is making less than $5 mill and will be an expiring in 2015. You truly don’t think we can package him in a deal at that salary? Or that he will be at least a servicable back-up PG at that age?

      The first round pick? at best #20? Remamber we flip-flop with Denver. Why can’t you wait until you at least see Bargs play for the Knicks before judging whether that deal was worth it? Not to mention that the deal actually added cap flexibility in 2015.

      As to Melo, I do think he will still be a very good player at age 33, he has the kind of game that can evolve with age. You could argue that he won’t be (or never was) a max player, but I think that he will have the market value of a max player well beyond this deal, and could be traded at any time for a decent return.

    121. max fisher-cohen

      Z-Man, we lost to the 9th best team in the league and didn’t impress much even vs. the 17th best team in league without one of their top players. It’s an achievement for the Knicks, but for a team like the Lakers, it would be a disappointment. We did that with one of the oldest teams in the league.

      Artest and Bargnani will probably replace what Copeland and Brewer gave us. A full year of healthy Shumpert will, optimistically, replace what Kidd gave us before he trailed off. Maybe they’ll be better, but at best they’ll add 2-3 wins, which we will give back due to a more competitive Eastern Conference.

      I’m not worried about GG re-signing Tyson. I’m worried about him letting Tyson walk without getting anything in return. I’m worried about us coming to the summer 2015 party with a lot of cap space and not much else to draw players in.

      I don’t see my perspective as jaded. I think the Knicks are doing an okay job. I want them to do a great job. I want to see a coherent vision for this team to not just maintain the 44-54 win cycle ala so many forgettable teams. I want them to go against popular thinking, go against the sure thing, and take the kind of high risk high reward chances that sometimes might leave a team in the doldrums but have the potential to catapult the team up into a higher echelon.

      The Lakers did it. If they’d drafted Vitaly Potapenko rather than Kobe or if Magic ownership had come to its senses and offered Shaq a full max extension, they could have ended up flopping around in the lottery. But they took the risk anyway. I don’t see the Knicks taking those sorts of risks.

    122. Z-man

      max fisher-cohen: we lost to the 9th best team in the league and didn’t impress much even vs. the 17th best team in league without one of their top players.

      But were they really the 9th best? You could argue that they were the 2nd best, based on playoff performance.

      max fisher-cohen: Artest and Bargnani will probably replace what Copeland and Brewer gave us.

      Really? What did Copeland or (especially) Brewer give us? Artest is an all-NBA defensive player who can also score. Bargnani is a guy whose situation is nearly a match to Blatche a year ago, and Blatche is one of the most valuable bench players in the league right now. Brewer can carck an NBA rotation, and Copeland hasn’t proven anything yet and may be more of a flash in the pan than Novak or Extra E were.

      max fisher-cohen: I’m not worried about GG re-signing Tyson. I’m worried about him letting Tyson walk without getting anything in return.

      You do get something in return…$14 mill in cap space. Remember what happened when we took that attitude with Ewing? Would it not have been better to not have gotten anything in return?

      max fisher-cohen: If they’d drafted Vitaly Potapenko rather than Kobe or if Magic ownership had come to its senses and offered Shaq a full max extension, they could have ended up flopping around in the lottery. But they took the risk anyway. I don’t see the Knicks taking those sorts of risks.

      They were still a top team before drafting Kobe. They went 53-29 the year they drafted him and 56-26 the year after. He was drafted with the 13th pick as…

    123. Z-man

      *can’t crack*

      So Kobe was a great pick, but isn’t there some luck involved in picking an all-time great with the 13th pick? Especially when picked just after him were: another HS flyer that turned out to be very good in Jermaine O’Neal, an all-star caliber SF in Peja, and a 2-time MVP in Nash?

    124. Zanzibar

      While I’m happy about us having cap space in 2015, I don’t think we will use it wisely. Most of the free agents that year will be on the wrong side of 30 and younger ones like Aldrich are over-rated and not max players. Hibbert imo is the only one worth a max salary taking into account age and potential impact. But just like Donnie, after 4 years of clearing cap, didn’t want to be left standing in a game of musical chairs, I fear we will dive in and end up with either overpaid max players or max players who will give us a couple of good years and then fall off a cliff. I would much prefer we sign Hibbert and then pursue durable value players in the 6-12m range like Millsap, something like the Pistons chip team. That type of roster would give us flexibility so we don’t end up marking time until the end of large bad contracts. It’s mind boggling to consider that Amare(3 playoffs eligible) and Tyson(2) have not given us a single decent playoffs even close to what would be expected for their salaries.

      And btw, a league office source said that while the Knicks did not actively shop Tyson this off-season they made it known they were willing to entertain offers. They didn’t receive a single offer according to that source. We ain’t gittin’ value for Ty. Amnestying Billups and signing Tyson was dumb on so many levels. He had one good season in an otherwise uninspiring career and we rushed to give him a near max salary. I’ve posted this before but Dirk took only 27% of his shots inside 10ft that season so Tyson’s offensive limitations didn’t affect his play. Amare, in contrast, that year shot 60% of his shots inside 10ft (likely even more this season). Melo, in this past career year, shot 42% at the rim in the playoffs tied for his lowest playoffs at rim % in the past 8 playoff years. Chandler was and is a lousy fit for Melo and Amare.

    125. max fisher-cohen

      Z-Man, you sound really homer-ish. Statistically, Brewer was better than Artest in the year before we got him and not much worse last year. He has similar flaws and strengths and is like five years younger.

      Even against Bargnani’s best year, Copeland was better statistically last year. If you can compare Bargnani to Blatche, then I can compare him to Gerald Green or Yi Jianlian. Just because one draft bust partially redeems himself, doesn’t mean they all will.

      As far as the Chandler issue goes, this is another disingenuous claim. Chandler does not have to be traded for washed up players. He has real value around the league and could be traded for picks or younger players on reasonable contracts — guys that other teams would want.

      And as far as the lakers, I can’t believe your quoting the fact that I brought up. Yes, they won 53 games! Just like the Knicks! But they decided 53 wins and 2nd round exits wasn’t good enough, and they took a risk. THey got lucky with Kobe, but you can’t get lucky unless you actually take some sort of risk. They had 0% of getting a kobe bryant if they hadn’t chanced it and traded Divac for that pick. Their pretty good roster would have continued to age. Attendance would have been good. Fans would have enough to go on to argue they might win a title. They would have been just like the Knicks.

    126. jon abbey

      Brewer was worthless last year, which is why he couldn’t get minutes for two different teams. statistics that say differently are statistics that need to be questioned.

    127. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      jon abbey:
      Brewer was worthless last year, which is why he couldn’t get minutes for two different teams. statistics that say differently are statistics that need to be questioned.

      Just focus on the outliers and say that it’s the statistic’s fault, not yours nor the obviously ingenius coaching and GMing in this league, one that thinks Eddy Curry, Monta Ellis and Andrea Bargnani are worth eight figures a year.

      Durant
      James
      Paul
      Harden
      Chandler
      Ibaka
      Curry
      Noah
      Conley
      Wade

      There are your top ten players last year in overall WP. Would you hesitate to trade any player on the Knicks for one of them?

    128. BigBlueAL

      max fisher-cohen:
      Z-Man, you sound really homer-ish. Statistically, Brewer was better than Artest in the year before we got him and not much worse last year. He has similar flaws and strengths and is like five years younger.

      How the hell was Brewer not much worse statistically than Artest last season?? Brewer last season had a TS% of 41%(!!) which included his career high 30% from 3pt range.

      Brewer is a career 25% 3pt shooter. He has been virtually useless offensively the past 2 seasons. Artest is a much, much better 3pt shooter than Brewer and for this Knicks team thats a pretty important fact.

    129. jon abbey

      1) it’s pretty funny that you spelled ingenious wrong in that context.

      2) if you switch that list to WP48 from overall WP (so you can better factor out the playing time decisions from the coaches you love to mock), it becomes pretty amusing after the top three. Jason Kidd was the 9th most valuable guy in the league with 2000+ minutes, whereas back in the real world, he literally couldn’t finish a breakaway layup by the end of the season.

    130. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      BigBlueAL: How the hell was Brewer not much worse statistically than Artest last season??Brewer last season had a TS% of 41%(!!) which included his career high 30% from 3pt range.

      Brewer is a career 25% 3pt shooter.He has been virtually useless offensively the past 2 seasons.Artest is a much, much better 3pt shooter than Brewer and for this Knicks team thats a pretty important fact.

      Brewer had a stellar STL rate and rarely committed fouls or turnovers. As a SF he is not very productive, but playing the 2 he contributes some good stuff.

    131. massive

      http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-win-predictions-for-2012-13-volume-2-the-hand-crafted-edition/

      That is last year’s WP/48 projections for the season. Let’s recap:

      They said the playoffs would look like:
      1) New York – 55.4 wins
      2) Miami – 55.3 wins
      3) Atlanta – 47.6 wins
      4) Chicago – 44.2 wins
      5) Milwaukee – 43.7 wins
      6) Boston – 42.2 wins
      7) Indiana – 40.6 wins
      8) Philadelphia – 39.2 wins

      None of their projections came true. Their biggest gaffe was they projected Brooklyn to win 32.4 games, when they actually won 49 games. They were close with New York, Boston, and Chicago.

      Looking at their New York projections, they projected Marcus Camby and Ronnie Brewer to play 14.1 and 27 minutes per game respectively. Brewer was supposed to see 2,214 minutes and Camby was supposed to see 1,156 minutes. Together, they saw 961 total minutes instead of the 3,370 total minutes they were projected to see. At their projected WP/48s. that’s a total of 14.56 wins we were supposed to get. Instead, we got a total of 1.82 wins out of those two. According to their projections, we left 12.74 wins on the table and should have won 42-43 games without that production.

      Now I actually like WP/48 because I think it’s useful in context with other things (like every other statistic). However, we can see that it’s not very good at predicting the future. There was a total of about 13 wins not accounted for even though they were in the right ballpark, so we cannot give them credit for a right-ish answer. I don’t think WP/48 can be given any credence for projections, honestly.

    132. massive

      jon abbey: this is an entirely meaningless distinction in today’s NBA, the giggles keep coming.

      Right. New York’s offense doesn’t have a 1-5 distinction. You have a point guard, a center, 2 wings, and Melo lol. When Melo is off-court, JR Smith takes that role. There is no 2 or 3 in New York.

    133. BigBlueAL

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Brewer had a stellar STL rate and rarely committed fouls or turnovers. As a SF he is not very productive, but playing the 2 he contributes some good stuff.

      The guy sucked but the fact he doesnt foul or turn it over and gets an occasional steal still makes him a productive player?? Brewer was a very good player in Utah but since leaving he has been pretty bad including his seasons in Chicago.

      Its players like Brewer that is the reason Melo has to take so many shots which you criticize him for.

    134. jon abbey

      BigBlueAL: The guy sucked but the fact he doesnt foul or turn it over and gets an occasional steal still makes him a productive player??

      this is the thing, if a guy spent his entire playing time sitting on the halfcourt logo, WP would rank him ahead of Melo.

    135. BigBlueAL

      jon abbey: this is the thing, if a guy spent his entire playing time sitting on the halfcourt logo, WP would rank him ahead of Melo.

      WP would love me then. Ive played in a few adult rec leagues with my younger bro and his friends (a couple of them played college ball) and my role was to stay out of the way lol. If it was garbage time they would look for me so I could shoot some 3pters and have fun but if not my purpose was to play D, grab some rebounds and spot up from 3pt range and shoot it on the rare occasion the ball was passed to me.

      I actually had a couple of games where I had to play the full 40 mins cause we only had 5 players for the game and I would take 1 or 2 shots total. Wasnt exactly fun but at my age and shape it was good for me to do some physical activity and sweat alot lol.

      I did go 6 for 6 from the FT line one season.

    136. max fisher-cohen

      re: Brewer

      The point was, a guy with a similar skillset to MWP struggled in NY. Who’s to say that MWP wouldn’t struggle similarly? The fact that he didn’t play for OKC is meaningless since the Thunder already had Kevin Martin, Durant and Sefolosha eating all those minutes.

      Yeah, World Peace is a better shooter, but he’s still hasn’t been above league average since 08/09 and . Defenses are going to challenge him to makes hots just like they did in LA, just like they did with Brewer and in the playoffs, with Jason Kidd. If he doesn’t make them at 35%+, Woodson will face the same conundrum that Jon Abbey has pointed out numerous times: another player who can only play one side of the floor.

    137. BigBlueAL

      MWP the last 4 seasons has shot .355, .356, .296 and .342 from 3pt range. Last season he made 1.9 per game. Not as good as he shot in his final season with the Kings and his lone season in Houston but still not exactly someone you totally ignore considering he is a willing 3pt shooter. Dunno why you are assuming he will be a bad 3pt shooter next season because of 1 poor season out of the last 4 and that was during the lockout season.

      I hope teams defend MWP the way they defended Brewer and Kidd in the playoffs. MWP is not as good as he was a few years ago obviously and Im not saying he is the missing piece for the Knicks but to compare him offensively to Brewer sorry that just doesnt work for me.

    138. Z-man

      MWP has been an all-star level defensive player (1/2 the game) and a reasonable offensive player. Brewer is a scrub. He does not have a similar skillset to MWP. Never has. Please, be real. Stop saying dumb things.

    139. jon abbey

      max fisher-cohen:

      If he doesn’t make them at 35%+, Woodson will face the same conundrum that Jon Abbey has pointed out numerous times: another player who can only play one side of the floor.

      this is going to be even more difficult this year if Bargnani and Amar’e are ever healthy at the same time, I have no idea how you can fit both of them into a rotation unless you have prime-era Dikembe Mutumbo next to them the whole time.

    140. BigBlueAL

      jon abbey: this is going to be even more difficult this year if Bargnani and Amar’e are ever healthy at the same time, I have no idea how you can fit both of them into a rotation unless you have prime-era Dikembe Mutumbo next to them the whole time.

      One of them has to start along side Chandler and the other plays with KMart off the bench I would assume. But hell the Knicks survived long stretches late last season during their 13 game winning streak with Cope at C. Playing one of them at C if necessary for 5 to 10 mins a game wont be that detrimental I would hope. Playing both together though would be stretching it.

    141. yellowboy90

      Also, don’t you have to include that when playing small ball he will likely be defended by 4s. That’s different from LA.

    Comments are closed.