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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Knicks Morning News (Friday, Aug 17 2012)

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Basketball: Liberty Top First-Place Sun (Fri, 17 Aug 2012 06:48:03 GMT)
    Cappie Pondexter scored 21 points to lead the Liberty to a 79-61 victory over the first-place Connecticut Sun in Newark in the teams’ first game after the Olympic break.

  • [New York Times] Off the Dribble: Knicks Remain Silent on Jeremy Lin’s Move to Rockets (Fri, 17 Aug 2012 02:29:23 GMT)
    Not a single team official has stepped forward to explain the Knicks’ decision to let Jeremy Lin leave for Houston rather than match a three-year, $25 million contract.

  • [New York Daily News] Oakley: Knick starsALL aren’t about team  (Fri, 17 Aug 2012 03:10:59 GMT)
    Former Knicks big man Charles Oakley knows a thing or two about team success. He played in 13 straight postseasons from 1986-98 with the Bulls and Knicks and was part of a Knicks squad that reached the NBA Finals in 1994.

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks, Nets square off in preseason before season opener (Fri, 17 Aug 2012 00:11:29 GMT)
    One of the New York’s basketball arenas should be ready by the preseason, the other apparently will not.

  • [NBA.com - Knicks News] Knicks City Kids (Fri, 17 Aug 2012 01:44:53 +0000)
    The KCK are the original NBA kids dance team, celebrating their 13th year performing on the hardwood floor of Madison Square Garden.

  • [New York Post] Oakley: Roles not defined for Knicks (Fri, 17 Aug 2012 05:11:25 -0500)
    Maybe the Knicks should practice a little role play this offseason.
    Former Knick Charles Oakley says Carmelo Anthony and Co. need to understand where they fit in on the team if they have any hopes of winning a championship this season.
    “I think it’s all about how you view…

  • 37 comments on “Knicks Morning News (Friday, Aug 17 2012)

    1. Frank O.

      So, we’re in the ‘things are so slow we listen to Charles Oakley’ part of the summer, huh?
      He’s got no ax to grind.

    2. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      I’d like to address a post I made about not knowing if Amar’e was ever good at hitting a jumper, and ruruland’s oh-so-typical reply, “lazy or stupid?”

      So let me get this straight, Master O’ Flip-flop: I’m not allowed to say that a player’s shooting efficiency is indicative of his overall “ability” because of the outside variables (floor spacing, assisted rate, position, etc.) that affect it, but I can look at his shot-type distribution and efficiencies and make an accurate assessment based on that? As if somehow his jumper make-rate is somehow indicative of HIS ability, rather than the ability of his teammates to “create space” for him to take a high percentage jumper?

      What kind of bullshit is that?

    3. chrisk06811

      ESPN’s rankings are out….500 – 401. 2 of our dudes are on the panel. Eddy Curry….rated dead last, right behind Kent Somethingorother on GS. OK….so far, pretty much spot on accurate.

      Jerome Jordan at 450. hi jerome.

    4. ruruland

      <a href="#comment-

      What kind of bullshit is that?

      No, this is a very simple concept, and it appears as though you’re slowly catching on.

      We can compare efficiencies within shot type!! Isn’t that amazing?!?!?!

      When I post numbers from Synergy, I also give efficiency rankings of where a certain players ranks among all NBA players in a certain shot type.

      Naturally, different shot types are created in different ways, i.e., assisted shots are more efficient across the board than self-created shots.

      If we go to 82games.com and Hoopdata, we can find a players efficiency on jump shots from a certain distance as well as the rate with which they are assisted.

      When we do that with Amar’e, we find that historically, his jump shot percentage is elite among power forwards and centers. Not the best, but likely top 5-10 every year with the exception of last season.

      With very few exceptions, almost all frontcourt players have a similarly high assisted basket rate on jump shots, which should make sense to a person who likes to actually watch basketball.

      Unlike WOW, there is not a pre-baked formula where you can plug in a guy’s efficiencies in all shot types as well as his ability to create space/shots for others (however difficult that can be o quantify), matched against the league average in those situations and the overall value of each situation, to determine his overall offensive worth— at least, it hasn’t been developed publically. of course rebounds play a part in that as well, but so to does a players role in creating spacing off the ball.

      As you implictly acknowledge however, such a system of measuring a players worth would be far better than what wow has now and would certainly make more sense.

    5. Brian Cronin

      Javale is one of the most amazing basketball specimens ever. I think he’s going to turn into a great player.

      He has to be one of the most fascinating players in the league. His body is up there with Lebron in the sense that you think to yourself, “How the hell does this person exist? How does someone have that much height, that much strength and that much speed?” And yet unlike Lebron, he’s yet to put it all together. If he ever does, the games he had against the Lakers might become not his norm, but much more common occurrences.

    6. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland: No, this is a very simple concept, and it appears as though you’re slowly catching on.

      We can compare efficiencies within shot type!! Isn’t that amazing?!?!?!

      When I post numbers from Synergy, I also give efficiency rankings of where a certain players ranks among all NBA players in a certain shot type.

      Naturally, different shot types are created in different ways, i.e., assisted shots are more efficient across the board than self-created shots.

      If we go to 82games.com and Hoopdata, we can find a players efficiency on jump shots from a certain distance as well as the rate with which they are assisted.

      When we do that with Amar’e, we find that historically, his jump shot percentage is elite among power forwards and centers. Not the best, but likely top 5-10 every year with the exception of last season.

      What do you mean, within shot type? We don’t know the shot types. We know how often a player attempts and makes a shot from a certain distance, and we know how many of those shots — although not which — go in. How can we ascertain that Amar’e’s jumpers are more “wide open” than others’? How can we even ascertain whether assisted shots are more open in the first place? “Common sense?” That’s bullshit. That’s unscientific. That’s pre-Moneyball baseball shit. You’re grasping at straws. You tell us we can’t look at efficiency data and then you say we can, so long as it’s the way you want it.

    7. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock JowlesYou tell us we can’t look at efficiency data and then you say we can, so long as it’s the way you want it.

      I find it amusing that you’re making this argument, considering that WP/WS considers all rebounds, all steals, all assists, all fga, etc. al to be the same.

      Second, I never claim that you “can’t look” at efficiency data. That’s absurd. I use efficiency data all the time and I’ve repeated my beliefs on that. Just because I’m not completely dogmatic like you are about it doesn’t mean I don’t think it has excellent value. I think it often gets things wrong because it overvalues certain things and does not quantify other things.

      However, I have little doubt that someone will come up with advanced stats that weigh and valuate all shot types based on things like space, contests, as well as the way players move the defense. Publically available visual/spatial data analysis is quickly coming to that point.

      Just because we don’t know the difference in Amar’e’s efficiency on shots from 18 feet when a defender is running at him when one isn’t, doesn’t mean we can’t ascertain that Amar’e is a good/bad jump shooter. Though, apparently ESPN stats and info does quantify shooting percentage of contested shots, where Melo was top 5 last season.

      Secondly, I haven’t run a linear regression (i’m sure you’d do a much better job doing that than I could as it’s been awhile since i took college statistics) to find the correlation between assisted makes and efficiency and unassisted make efficiency across the league, you don’t have to do much research to see an incredibly strong relationship between the two.

      Isolations and post-ups are considerably less efficient than shot types that require an assist by defintion. That does not mean that the former aren’t valuable, because they often lead to high…

    8. ruruland

      Brian Cronin: He has to be one of the most fascinating players in the league. His body is up there with Lebron in the sense that you think to yourself, “How the hell does this person exist? How does someone have that much height, that much strength and that much speed?” And yet unlike Lebron, he’s yet to put it all together. If he ever does, the games he had against the Lakers might become not his norm, but much more common occurrences.

      Raw out of school, poor developmental habitat, , asthma problems that have only recently improved.

      Raw big men take the longest to develop, but you can see that McGee has a chance to be an incredible post player.

      Was 42nd in NBA last year in ppp in post.

      He’s playing in the perfect kind of system, with the best back-door/lob passer in the NBA.

      I think if the Nuggets are ever able to compete with OKC, McGee will have to develop into the their best player — he’s he one guy truly capable of being dominant.

    9. jon abbey

      OKC resigns Ibaka to a 4 year, $40+ million deal, will be very interesting to see what happens with the ultra-efficient and thus overrated Harden now.

    10. Brian Cronin

      Why the heck would he take such a below-market deal? On the one hand, I’d like to congratulate Presti, but that seems more like Jedi mind tricks than good GMing.

    11. massive

      jon abbey:
      OKC resigns Ibaka to a 4 year, $40+ million deal, will be very interesting to see what happens with the ultra-efficient and thus overrated Harden now.

      OKC is either going to trade or amnesty Perk. I just don’t see them letting go of Harden; he’s their 2nd best player. But if you think Harden is overrated, how do you feel about Westbrook?

    12. Juany8

      massive: OKC is either going to trade or amnesty Perk. I just don’t see them letting go of Harden; he’s their 2nd best player. But if you think Harden is overrated, how do you feel about Westbrook?

      Harden is a really nice offensive player, I could certainly see how people would make the case that he’s as good or even better than Westbrook offensively (though not by much). On defense though, it’s absolutely no contest. Westbrook is a fantastic (if a little erratic) defender who can defend pretty much any of the elite guards in the league. Harden is an average defender, at best, who relies far too much on flopping to actually stop good opponents. Lebron and Wade ate up Harden pretty much every time he guarded one of them, while Westbrook was doing an excellent job on Wade and Chalmers.

      You also can’t totally discount that defenses game plan around stopping Westbrook (and Durant) much more than they do Harden. I doubt he’d become mediocre on another team, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his efficiency took a notable dip if he went to another team and was asked to be the top option. Westbrook already has the ball in his hands most of the time, it’s clear what he can do when defenses gear up against him

    13. jon abbey

      yep, that’s all pretty close to my perspective, I think people focus too much on Harden’s strengths and Westbrook’s weaknesses.

      amnestying Perk was a lot easier of a decision before Howard went to the Lakers.

    14. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Juany8:
      You also can’t totally discount that defenses game plan around stopping Westbrook (and Durant) much more than they do Harden. I doubt he’d become mediocre on another team, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his efficiency took a notable dip if he went to another team and was asked to be the top option. Westbrook already has the ball in his hands most of the time, it’s clear what he can do when defenses gear up against him

      Any coach who doesn’t plan a defense to stop a guy who shoots .660 TS% on 21.6 USG% should not have a job in the league.

    15. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Here’s a youtube video I found of James Harden, with my commentary on “spacing” and “shot creation.” If anyone’s to benefit from defenses having to quadruple-team Westbrook because of his “superior athleticism” (oh-so-evident in his 28 points on 27 FGA), it’s gotta be the dude with the ridiculous eFG%, right?.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx09_zUJTkk
      0:06 Harden dribbles hard right and pulls up; Marion has no assignment aside from stopping the 3 but can’t
      0:16 All-NBA PG Derek Fisher passes to a cutting All-NBA PF Nick Collison, who finds Harden camping at the three-point line on a sleeping Carter caught in no-man’s land
      0:28 Harden plays the two-man game with Nick “Hall of Famer” Collison; quick screen, sinks a three with a late hand in his face
      0:32 Harden drives hard right and benefits from late help due to literally ANYONE standing on the left side of the low post; seriously, I could have been there and the defender would have had to think before helping (COSMIC TRUTH: ALMOST ALL NBA PLAYERS REQUIRE A PLAYER TO GUARD THEM OR THEY WILL SHOOT 80%)
      0:41 Drives in transition, splits three defenders for easy finger roll. Again, ANYONE could have been to his sides. They’re NBA players, they require guarding.
      0:56 Again, pick and roll with that pesky Olympian, Nick Collison. Fouled on the way to the hoop but scores anyway.
      1:17 Goes straight at Delonte West, eurosteps, and draws the foul as Haywood swats him as he goes past. This has absolutely nothing to do with the players on the floor with him. He’s playing one-on-one, here.
      1:32 Harden waits for a quick pick and roll from Ibaka, then dives to the hoop as the Mavs don’t have a chance on the switch. Note that Jason Terry is playing several feet off of the oh-so-dangerous Westbrook, and is essentially in the lane. Again, there is no guard in the league who is going to get more space than he’s given there…

    16. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      1:42 Extremely high screen with Ibaka. Somehow Terry senses that he’s driving and meets him in the paint in time, but he’s too strong. Single-handedly lays it up. Westbrook’s defender is seven feet away from him, basically playing in the paint. All his teammates have to do is stand at the arc. Any NBA player can do this.
      1:55 All five Mavs are in rebounding range when he shoots. He drives from the elbow and beats his man in a congested lane. Despite Ibaka “clogging the paint” he finishes.
      2:23 Takes advantage of a much slower defender on the iso and is contested by expert shot-blocker Delonte West at the rim. Westbrook is standing, as we’ve seen before, at the three-point line.
      —————————————
      I’m not saying that Westbrook sucks, I’m just saying that he’s not as important as he seems. Harden may have had a career night, but he certainly did it without Westbrook’s all-encompassing team-betterment. The athleticism is flashy but the efficiency is not. He was 3-12 in that game for 12 points, missing all of his three point attempts.

    17. massive

      I have to agree with THCJ. James Harden isn’t exactly Landry Fields in that he can get to the basket pretty much whenever he wants to, can shoot the 3, and plays a great transition game. Another thing is that while Westbrook may be an elite defender and Harden is average, Harden’s offensive game is a lot better than Westbrook’s. We’re comparing a guy who shot a .660 TS% with 39% from 3 to a guy who shot a .538% with 31% from 3. That’s a 122 point difference on the TS and 8 on the 3pt. James Harden’s efficiency can slip 60 points and he’ll still be superbly efficient, and more still be a whole lot more efficient than Westbrook. It should be noted that Harden did it on a 21.6% USG and Westbrook was on a 32.7% USG, though. That’s a huge difference.

      Another thing to note about Westbrook/Harden is that I’ve seen Scott Brooks take the ball out of Westbrook’s hands in the closing moments of games in order to give it to Harden. Against the Mavs and the Lakers (I would say Spurs, but I wasn’t watching that series), Harden would play the 1 on offense and Westbrook would play the two. It’s common knowledge that you want the ball in the hands of your better offensive players to close the game, right? Westbrook would seriously be running his team’s offense into the dirt, so Scott Brooks would have to move him off the ball, and then OKC would come back from behind. That’s what happened in the game THCJ linked to, and I remember it happened against the Lakers (OKC was behind 7 with somewhere around two minutes to go; Harden was then moved to the PG spot). I don’t think it’s a miracle, just give the ball to your most efficient scorer if you want efficient baskets.

      Lastly, I think the notion that Harden’s efficiency numbers would drop as a #1 option is unfair. Of course he benefits from playing on the Thunder next to KD and Westbrook. Would KDs efficiency numbers drop if he didn’t have Harden and Westbrook? Yes. The same for Westbrook. So that argument is…

    18. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Amen, massive. It’s not that Westbrook is “bad”; it’s that he should take fewer shots. Teams will have to make adjustments no matter who is scoring. Why not push for Harden to take a couple more shots per game and Westbrook a few fewer?

      Of course, that Harden game was an outlier; Harden normally doesn’t shoot that much, and maybe the match-ups were in his favor. But I think it’s extremely short-sighted to say, “He’s athletic; he can score at will.” Well, no, he can’t. His TS% tells us that. He can put up a “good look,” but so can most guards in the league.

      It’s the NBA. EVERYONE is good. Even the bad players would wipe the floor in D-League or mid-level international play. Everyone must be accounted for. Not even Jared Jeffries can be left wide open.

    19. Z-man

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Not even Jared Jeffries can be left wide open.

      I’ll take my chances on that one… :)

      Harden is very, very good at what he does. His size is a problem for opposing 2′s and 3′s. The defense in that game was abysmal (JKidd was statuesque, hopefully we’ll see better than that!) I do think, however, that he would be less effective as a starter and a firat option, and that he is not anywhere near the all-around player that Melo is. As to Westbrook, he is not efficient, but that doesn’t make him less valuable than Harden. To sum up, I agree with THCJ in that Harden should shoot more and Westbrook should shoot less. Maybe losing in the finals and the Lakers getting Howard and Nash will shake them up a bit and make them more mature.

    20. Juany8

      The Honorable Cock Jowles:
      Amen, massive. It’s not that Westbrook is “bad”; it’s that he should take fewer shots. Teams will have to make adjustments no matter who is scoring. Why not push for Harden to take a couple more shots per game and Westbrook a few fewer?

      Of course, that Harden game was an outlier; Harden normally doesn’t shoot that much, and maybe the match-ups were in his favor. But I think it’s extremely short-sighted to say, “He’s athletic; he can score at will.” Well, no, he can’t. His TS% tells us that. He can put up a “good look,” but so can most guards in the league.

      It’s the NBA. EVERYONE is good. Even the bad players would wipe the floor in D-League or mid-level international play. Everyone must be accounted for. Not even Jared Jeffries can be left wide open.

      You totally ignored my argument about defense, I literally said in my post how I could see a strong case that Harden is better than Westbrook, although I’d like to see him actually have the ball in his hands all the time before I say for sure. The truth is we don’t know that Harden will still put up incredible efficiency if his shot distribution totally changed and the defense’s best defenders were focused on him the whole game, KD and Westbrook were still elite when Harden wasn’t really giving them much his first 1 and a half years. Either way, the defense is such a gap (in my opinion of course) that even if their offensive games were close, I’d still take Westbrook pretty easily.

      You also seem to be willingly ignoring that even though every NBA player is amazing when left open, defenses CONSTANTLY leave guys like Harden, Tyson Chandler, and Ryan Anderson open, knowing exactly how efficient those guys are, to prevent guys like Westbrook and Melo from shitting on them 1 on 1. Now Harden is good enough to get shots on his own, I just doubt at a .660 TS%

    21. ephus

      There are a few players, like Biedrins, Reggie Evans and Asik, who can be left alone on the perimeter. I do not put Jared Jeffries in that category, because he will shoot the perimeter jumper and occasionally take the ball to the rim.

    22. Will the Thrill

      If they knew the Hardens, Chandlers, and Andersons would shoot at a .660 TS%, why would they leave them open instead of letting Melo and Westbrook take their men on 1 on 1? Do you really think that Melo can possibly be more efficient if he wasn’t double teamed and just guarded straight up (we aren’t talking about being open like Harden here)?
      I have no idea why a defense wouldn’t take their chances on guarding Melo/Westbrook 1 on 1 instead of leaving Harden open anywhere on the floor.

      Juany8: You also seem to be willingly ignoring that even though every NBA player is amazing when left open, defenses CONSTANTLY leave guys like Harden, Tyson Chandler, and Ryan Anderson open, knowing exactly how efficient those guys are, to prevent guys like Westbrook and Melo from shitting on them 1 on 1. Now Harden is good enough to get shots on his own, I just doubt at a .660 TS%

    23. massive

      Come on, defenses do not leave any of those guys wide open. And why are you comparing Westbrook to Carmelo Anthony? Carmelo Anthony is the number 1 scoring option on his team, and Westbrook is the #2 behind Kevin Durant. Teams don’t double team Russell Westbrook because he plays on court with three other guys who will score if left wide open (did you see what Serge Ibaka did to the Spurs when they left him open)? Carmelo Anthony sees a double much more regularly than Harden.

      Nobody is saying Russell Westbrook is a bad basketball player. He’s just overrated (offensively). But for those of you questioning if Harden would be as efficient on another team, how efficient would Westbrook be if he was traded to a team like Sacramento tomorrow? Westbrook, Durant, Harden, and Ibaka all benefit tremendously by playing with each other, and they would all see a decline in efficiency if they were asked to play with a less talented group of players. None of those guys are LeBron, CP3, or Dwight Howard, so singling out Harden isn’t fair. Can you imagine if Westbrook played for Sacramento, Cleveland, or Washington? Where would he be in terms of scoring efficiency?

      Another thing is that James Harden is NOT a one trick pony like Novak, Landry Fields, Tyson Chandler, or Ryan Anderson. He can score from anywhere on court and create his own offense. Now I’m not saying that James Harden can be a team’s #1 scorer. To me, James Harden is best off playing as a #2 scoring option. But he is not limited to just one thing; he can play.

    24. ruruland

      The question shouldn’t be framed as an equal choice. Naturally, no teams want to allow open jump shots to excellent shooters like Harden. And Hardens ability to score on transition both as a spot up shooter and driver is not something that would go away as a top option.He’s great at that.. But what would happen is that more of Hardens shots would come against the teeth of a defense, while a smaller percentage of his shots would be clean in the half- court….Nearly All number one options are primarily creators, not primarily beneficiaries of creation around them. And THCJ has already acknowledged that not all perimeter defenders are equal…. Harden rarely plays against the opponents top defender like Durant does…….

    25. ruruland

      To reiterate, say Harden has a ten percent increase in usage asa No.1… Where are those shots going to come from, will he play with someone who can create for him, and how many of those new shots come against set defense? How does a defense change if Harden is the priority primo, and how much more frequently does he play against elite defenders?

    26. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      ruruland:
      To reiterate, say Harden has a ten percent increase in usage asa No.1… Where are those shots going to come from, will he play with someone who can create for him, and how many of those new shots come against set defense? How does a defense change if Harden is the priority primo, and how much more frequently does he play against elite defenders?

      Where do the shots come from? You seem to imply that Harden will be tasked to “create” his own shot. Yet there are several times during the course of an NBA game when a player receives no opportunity to “make a play.” Consider a coach-called iso for Westbrook. Is this done because a play cannot be called for Durant or Ibaka or Harden? Is it indicative of their ability, or is it simply a call to “shake things up,” or whatever?

      To argue that Harden cannot increase his usage without his efficiency dropping is to say that his team simply cannot give a few of Westbrook’s opportunities to Harden and reasonably ask for the same level of efficiency. This would imply that Westbrook MUST use the possessions because no one else can. And that, I believe, is bullshit.

    27. ruruland

      The Honorable Cock Jowles: Where do the shots come from? You seem to imply that Harden will be tasked to “create” his own shot. Yet there are several times during the course of an NBA game when a player receives no opportunity to “make a play.” Consider a coach-called iso for Westbrook. Is this done because a play cannot be called for Durant or Ibaka or Harden? Is it indicative of their ability, or is it simply a call to “shake things up,” or whatever?

      To argue that Harden cannot increase his usage without his efficiency dropping is to say that his team simply cannot give a few of Westbrook’s opportunities to Harden and reasonably ask for the same level of efficiency. This would imply that Westbrook MUST use the possessions because no one else can. And that, I believe, is bullshit.

      let’s extend the logic. Can the Knicks get Chandler a dunk every possession, or a Novak open 3 every possession? What are Hardens most efficient plays? Transition and spot-ups… Can the Thunder offense get those shots for Harden every possession, or does the defense intentionally limit these kinds of opportunities in the same way they attempt to limit Westbrook basket attempts. Its very difficult to substantially increase usage without increasing ball-handling shot types….most of hardens attempts come off of decisions he or his teammates make on open shots, by asking Harden to carry a larger burden of the offense, you are confining a higher percentage of his decision making into less efficient opportunities…highly efficient scorers are primarily opportunity scorers, who take advantage of the best opportunity most frequently…. The higher the usage, the proportion of optimal opportunities decrease. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony do not take a high percentage of open opportunity shots.

    28. ruruland

      THCJ working knowledge of the game operates under the fallacy that there is no limitation to the most efficient shot types other than horrible coaching( which is apparently ubiquitous at all levels) and poor player decision making..as usual, he is missing the greatest factors of causality, which are the defense aided by the shot clock and the relative defeciencies of teammates and their ability to aid the shot making process

    29. sidestep

      For last season, Harden had 35 games in which he played 30-39 min (33min avg):
      .469 FG%, .375 3P%, averaging 17.1 pts per game.

      He had 22 games in which he played 20-29 min (27min avg):
      .527 FG%, .438 3P%, averaging 16.3 pts per game.

      Those numbers seem to bear out that Harden is less efficient with more minutes. Sorry, I don’t have TS stats, but the correlation would look the same.

    30. sidestep

      Also, even if we presume that a player is equally efficient regardless of the minutes played, a split based on minutes played will probably be biased in favor of showing higher efficiency for more minutes because players get more playing time when they are on a hot streak, or are getting a favorable match up against the opposing team. The fact that the actual split shows otherwise further enforces the conclusion that Harden is less efficient with more minutes.

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