Knicks Morning News (2021.09.18)

  • Possible Signing? This Team Is Reportedly Interested In An NBA Star Who Played For The New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks And Others – Sports Illustrated
    [www.si.com] — Friday, September 17, 2021 10:17:12 PM

    Possible Signing? This Team Is Reportedly Interested In An NBA Star Who Played For The New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks And Others  Sports Illustrated

  • Knicks put single-game tickets on sale, clarify COVID entry policy – Newsday
    [www.newsday.com] — Friday, September 17, 2021 6:56:39 PM

    Knicks put single-game tickets on sale, clarify COVID entry policy  Newsday

  • NY Knicks: Reacting to a proposed Justin Holiday trade idea – Daily Knicks
    [dailyknicks.com] — Friday, September 17, 2021 4:00:00 PM

    NY Knicks: Reacting to a proposed Justin Holiday trade idea  Daily Knicks

  • Bulls to Honor Joakim Noah on Oct. 28 Vs. Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks – NBC Chicago
    [www.nbcchicago.com] — Friday, September 17, 2021 2:20:18 PM

    Bulls to Honor Joakim Noah on Oct. 28 Vs. Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks  NBC Chicago

  • Madison Square Garden Sports : New York Knicks Announce Single-Game Tickets On-Sale For 2021-22 Season – Marketscreener.com
    [www.marketscreener.com] — Friday, September 17, 2021 11:52:11 AM

    Madison Square Garden Sports : New York Knicks Announce Single-Game Tickets On-Sale For 2021-22 Season  Marketscreener.com

  • Opinion: LiAngelo Ball? These Three Teams Should Sign Him To A Training Camp Deal – Sports Illustrated
    [www.si.com] — Friday, September 17, 2021 11:15:50 AM

    Opinion: LiAngelo Ball? These Three Teams Should Sign Him To A Training Camp Deal  Sports Illustrated

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    17 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2021.09.18)”

    1. i think randle’s going to look like he regressed a good bit but it won’t matter as much as it seems like it should. randle made 2 big jumps last year, or maybe 3 depending on what you thought about his defense.

      the shooting is the big one, and it would be a minor miracle if he shot like durant again. a regression where he dipped to 36 from 3 & 38 from 16+ would, else equal, probably cost a bit under 2 pythag wins. but he also had an aberrationally low rim frequency for a guy his size, and you might well get a bit of that back with a positive reversion there.

      his 2nd jump was in assists sans marginal turnovers. as good as randle was here, esp. vs 19-20, there’s some fool’s gold in this. it would be really hard to be a good nba offense running most of your plays through randle point forwarding. he’s a willing passer, but he’s not a great passer. he gets a lot more of his assists jump passing to 3p shooters than finding guys open at the rim with amazing vision or anticipation. he draws doubles, but they aren’t discombobulated, desperate doubles to stop him flying to the rim. he’s a way below average lob tosser. last year he averaged ~2 fewer asst per 100 with rose (reg plus playoff). this year, he’ll not only have rose or kemba with him, but he’ll also have fournier, who unlike bullock does some creating. so it wouldn’t be surprising to see his assists come down a good bit without any damage to the offense; in fact it probably helps.

      so i think you can be relatively bearish on randle’s numbers without necessarily being bearish on the team. in fact i wouldn’t even list him among the major leverage factors for this year:

      1. how much will the defense fall, either due to variance or the modest bullock-fournier downgrade and less modest payton to kemba downgrade.

      2. age/health effect on kemba/rose

      3. upside from rj/quick/mitch/obi/rookie shocker less downside from rj shooting regression…

    2. …I think i am relatively pessimistic on the defense (current guess 10-15th) and rj/obi’s net improvement and consensus-ish on everything else. the offense should improve even if randle’s shooting is just okay.

    3. ***Possible Signing? This Team Is Reportedly Interested In An NBA Star Who Played For The New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks And Others Sports Illustrated***

      A team is reportedly interested in a player.

      Yes, that’s the headline.

      I will spoil it for you all: the team is the Pacers and the player is Wes Matthews.

      I am now going to a seance where I am going to channel the ghost of Frank DeFord and beg him to return to Sports Illustrated….

    4. pt, i think you are overvaluing Elfrid’s role, because he was replaced during last season and not when we let him go in the offseason. He was averaging more than 28 MPG and then we traded for DRose. Last 30 games he was at 18.4 MPG, but he was trending down and the Knicks were clearly scaling up the standings (and the defense was still elite), to end up averaging 15.6 MPG in the last 10 games.
      I agree the defense can regress a bit, but we’ll probably still be Top10. That’s what Thibs does best, and i don’t think that’s going to change this season.

    5. Also, Bullock’s DBPM numbers were like this: -0.3 in 2019-20 (with Fiz/Miller) and 0.6 in 2020-21 (with Thibs). Evan’s DBPM without Thibs was -0.2. Can Thibs make him better? I think he can. And also the way all the team buys on defense, that’s contagious.
      I don’t need to talk about offense because Evan is clearly on a different league than Bullock.

    6. Guys, I just finished reading an advance copy of Chris Herring’s book on the 90s Knicks, Blood in the Garden, and it is FANTASTIC. Y’all will love it. Not in stores til January, but from personal experience I know that preorders really help out authors, since they encourage Amazon and stores to order more copies when the book finally comes out.

      Preorder links here.

    7. Found an inserting article surveying basketball people on the best publicly available all in one metric. It says EPM has the most explanatory power and was ranked second in the poll ahead of LEBRON, RAPM, and BPM.

      The best statistic was actually DPM which attempts to cut through the noise and predict a player’s true value. It has a measure for predicting if a player’s shooting has actually improved or if the improvement is just a mirage.

      DPM does not like Randle , it does predict he should shoot around 35.4%. RJ is another interesting case.

    8. DPM has Julius in 110th. Should i say more? If anyone thinks Julius is not a Top50 player in this league, raise your hand. And i would’ve said Top30, but just to be sure, i think it’d be nuts to not place him in the Top50 at the very least. That metric not even has him in the Top100.

      [update] I was checking Box-DPM, but he is 92nd on the DPM, so the point remains.

    9. Randle had a great year last year but in my gut I still think he is the third best player on a very good team and maybe a square peg in a round hole in one of those situations too

      How much better or worse is Randle than Khris Middleton?

    10. Any metric that predicts Kevin Knox won’t be in the bottom 100 players seems pretty sketchy to me. Obi being more productive than RJ seems a bit of a stretch too. I do think it’ll be a very interesting year for RJ. He’s going from the 2nd/3rd option on offense most likely to 4th/5th- Mitch will certainly be lower usage but you have to think they’ll run far more pnr’s involving Mitch than RJ post-ups or iso’s. He could make decent improvements and still see his scoring take a solid hit. Or it’s possible he could improve enough that he’s co-equal with Fournier. Of course the three point shooting could also drop off without a big improvement from two and he takes a step backwards. It’ll be interesting to see how things play out for him.

    11. but you have to think they’ll run far more pnr’s involving Mitch

      I’d have to think that, too, but who the heck knows with this offense?

    12. ***How much better or worse is Randle than Khris Middleton?***

      Julius, or Chasson? (One he is a lot better than, and the other he is… also probably a lot better than).

    13. Tough call for me. Middleton is a perfect #2. Randle is a suboptimal #1. I’m not sure Randle could adjust his game to play off someone as well as Middleton did. But Middleton most likely could not handle the type of load Randle did last year.

    14. DPM weights recent games/seasons against a player’s career. Randle is likely being dragged down by his mediocre career prior to last year. In other words, DPM doesn’t buy Randle’s improvement.

      Kemba on the other hand is viewed favorably by DPM because his career has historically been much better than his last year. Kemba played well enough that DPM thinks he’ll bounce back or continue at the same pace.

      DPM isn’t saying how well those 2 played last year, it’s saying that moving forward this is how we expect them to perform. Specifically, the stat is supposed to predict a player’s next game boxscore.

      That’s why DPM is predictive rather than explanatory. EPM loved Randle and so do most explanatory metrics because he performed well despite his talent level likely being somewhat lower.

      I don’t know if I buy their assessment of Randle, he looked like a different player last year than he did 2 seasons ago. Metrics can’t pick up on that. Same goes for Kemba. We know Kemba had a devastating injury, but the algorithm doesn’t know it and likely has a rosy view of Kemba because of it.

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