(Sunday, June 16, 2019 11:08:39 PM)
During the latest rounds of discussions involving a trade for Anthony Davis, the Knicks never made the Pelicans a formal offer, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post. New York was undoubtedly interested in Davis, though talks were “preliminary” and “brief” since New Orleans began parsing offers a couple of weeks ago. Berman […]
(Sunday, June 16, 2019 3:02:40 PM)
Former Lakers center Dwight Howard was asked this week about whether impending free agent Kawhi Leonard should consider the team in free agency, with Howard quickly shutting down the idea in favor of Leonard’s current situation in Toronto. “I don’t know if [the Lakers] are the draw anymore,” Howard said Thursday on ‘First Things First’ […]
(Sunday, June 16, 2019 11:28:28 AM)
Anthony Davis listed the Knicks as one of his preferred locations, but they “weren’t close” to landing the Pelicans star, a source tells Marc Berman of The New York Post. The front office in New Orleans wasn’t impressed with the assets that New York could offer, and a third team would have been needed to […]
(Sunday, June 16, 2019 10:19:00 PM)
The Knicks did not land Anthony Davis, but perhaps they can make a run at another Pelicans center.
136 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2019.06.17)”
Knicks starting 5 – D’Angelo, RJ, Knox, Mitch, Julius Randle?
I wonder if it’s possible to get Russell and Randle to split the rest of our cap space after a Kevin Durant max contract. I worry about the 3&D prowess of Barrett/Knox/Randle if they’re 2-4, but Randle is definitely a guy I would not mind adding. Those two, along with the improvement of our young guys, would likely make us competitive for an 8th seed while Durant gets healthy.
It’s a far cry from KD and Kyrie, but sure, I guess. I’m assuming Russell will just continue to improve (offensively, anyway) and Randle is a fairly safe gamble, although probably not exactly the perfect complement to Mitch. I guess a lot depends on if we still get KD. I think they might still sign him, so we wouldn’t have enough money for both. I think it might be better to just max Russell since he can always be traded and then play “wait and see” for when KD gets back. That gives us a lot of flexibility since RJ can play the 2 or 3, Russell can play the 1 or 2, and Knox can play the 3 or 4 (hopefully decently). There will be other stretch 4s that we can get for cheap to play next to Mitch.
There’s no doubt (here, at least) that he is absolutely not worth a max. But if we’re not going to get anything with the cap space we created, or if we get something terrible with the cap space we created, I find it harder to say (with the benefit of hindsight) that trading him was the right move. It could come down to a choice of Porzingis on a 5 year max vs Durant coming off a ruptured Achilles on a 4 year max (plus two picks).
I still think I’d probably do the trade, but it’s closer now, and (like the Noah stretch) it begs the question of whether or not the Knicks should have waited.
My only regret ever from the Porzingis trade was never being able to see what it looked like with him and Robinson together. And now with Barrett likely in the mix, that’s another guy that figured to fit very well with him so it’s amplified a little bit.
Found it. But not where you evaluate swaps and deferrals.
yeah i’m not sure that’s posted anywhere but the generic math is straightforward. the average normalized value of the pelton draft board is 36.1. swap rights are like rolling two dice and picking the more favorable result. this requires summing the expected values of all rolls over the 870 possible results (30*29), which then gets you to an average value of a random 2-pick swap of 47.5. This is about 11.4 pts better than just having one random pick, which is just below value for the last pick in the first round.
deferral means you have to pick before the free look. this means you will defer if you get worse than 12th (curve has a left skew). so the average value of keeping 1-12 is 56.4. Once you defer your average reverts to the normal 36.1. Then you probability-weight .4(56.4) + .6(36.1) = 44.2. This is about 8 pts better than a normal pick, which is ~34th pick in draft board value. so while the swap obviously dominates in the generic case, it takes very little judgment to switch your preference.
Knicks starting 5 – D’Angelo, RJ, Knox, Mitch, Julius Randle?
starting to feel lonely here. hate this.
Yeah, the actual decision of an NBA GM probably includes some forecast of a team’s strength in 4-5 years, but assuming it’s random gives the process a baseline, like you said. Thanks.
What’s not to like? Two confirmed bad or below average defenders (Knox, Russel) and a third with -0.4 DBPM (Randle). What more can you ask.
I like aspects of Randle’s game, but he’s not going to be good fit next to Robinson unless he stretches out to 3. He’s also not a good defender. He’s better at boxscore basketball than he is at actual basketball. I won’t scream if we sign him because he’s at least young and may get better, but it’s not ideal.
I more or less feel the same way about Russell. I like aspects of his game, but he doesn’t defend and is not worth a huge contract.
You know, looking at last year’s roster, the only players I fell confident will probably be part of the team next year are Mitch, Trier and Knox. Of course, more than those will stay, but who knows which ones. It’s not much of a team so far, even adding in a draft pick. Am I missing something? Is anyone else under a committed contract?
i’m not julius randle’s biggest fan… but he is very useful…. i actually wouldn’t mind a russell and randle pairing but i think we can do a lot better…
Yeah and come to think of it, Russell probably isn’t a great fit with RJ, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense. It makes more sense for a team like Orlando. And getting Nets rejects won’t satisfy the fan base anyway.
Only wins will satisfy the fan base. We traded for McGrady (a disgusting trade and one reason I hate Walsh as a GM) and that was a star but it didn’t make the fan base happy.
And plenty of people here have been consistently and ridiculously wrong about his value (and injury risk until that became apparent later) all along because they focus on numbers that do not weigh his defense, ability to space the floor, and overall skill set properly. They also can’t capture the impact of his past role on his stats and what he might be able to do with a better play maker as more of a #2 or #1a option instead of the foal point of the defense getting double teamed and game planned against every night.
The injury risk remains, but even there he’s had plenty of time off to work on his body and get stronger. New management and coaching will probably use him more prudently and allow him to grow into a bigger role.
Yeah, that’s kind of potential starting 5 that is making me question the Porzingis trade.
Side note: I accidentally listened to sports radio while getting coffee yesterday. Apparently Steph Curry, after missing the last shot in game 6, is 0-9 in the playoffs with under 20 seconds remaining and his team down 3 or less. You can imagine the hot take some clown on ESPN radio has about this. He was announcing a list of player who, according to him, definitely wouldn’t have missed that shot. Jordan, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, etc.
I can’t believe people listen to this shit on purpose.
The guy literally cannot play a full nba season as a starter. And after two offseasons of “getting swole” he still looks like a glass giraffe. We did the right thing.
Yeah, a shot creating guard who doesn’t defend well, shoot well, and has a very high USG! Sarcasm aside, that’s exactly the type of player our front office loves to acquire (DSJ, Mudiay, Knox, Hez, Burke unless he was before Perry…)
Glass Giraffe would make a pretty good band name.
Glass Giraffe and the Unicorns
See, we’re all a bunch of fucking idiots but Strat knows the real deal. Now go ahead and whine about how everybody picks on you.
I like the part about how everybody was “ridiculously wrong” about KP’s injury risk until they were proven right.
Porzingis’ career TS% by month:
October: .565
November: .570
December: .506
January: .529
February: .520
March: .520
Only Strat understands that it’s actually good to suck outside of the first six weeks.
@20
I’m not smarter than anyone else.
I just admit to myself when I’ve been wrong. Initially, years ago I evaluated players incorrectly because I didn’t fully understand all the flaws in the numbers and models. Now I understand them better. And I keep evolving and learning from my past errors as my understanding of the game grows.
It’s not me that thinks practically every GM, every hall of fame coach, and every all time great player is an idiot about the game when all they need to do is look at BPM and WS48.
And yes, I was one of the first people here to talk about his injury risk. I got bashed when I said his ankle injury was not just a fluke. I said it also reflected his lack of strength and ability to take contact that was going to show up again and again (as it already had) and result in more injuries. And yes, Phil got trashed when he considered trading him partially over injury risk. All of that was BEFORE the ACL and before it became fashionable to talk about his injury risk as a problem here.
@21
You make the case for how you can be very intelligent but constantly wrong due to incorrect models of thinking than anyone else here.
Nobody thinks this. Please stop assaulting the straw man, he is lying in the street bloodied and begging for mercy.
I would look into shooters: Seth Curry, Brogdon, or Terrence Ross, depending on how things shake out with the top free agents. They tend to age well and can be moved later if need be. Also, maybe we could get a 1st round pick from the Suns to take on Tyler Johnson’s contract?
Phil did het trashed for considering trading KP. Not for an actual trade, just for considering it. He sucked, I get it, but nobody can hold the two ends of this argument.
This whole offseason already feels very Knicksy.
Resign the unikornet and play him a lot, then trade him to a contender looking for a stretch big.
No one thinks the models are perfect, it’s just the degree of magnitude they’d have to be off by for any of your Porzingis/Frank opinions to be true…yadda yadda yadda you’ve heard all of this before but holding on to bad opinions in the face of overwhelming evidence is a big part of what you do here.
If the models are as off as you think they are (and they have to be functionally useless if Porzingis deserves $31M and Frank Ntilikina isn’t ass), there should be plenty of examples of successful teams who didn’t have players rated well by them.
So what’s your favorite example of a successful team that was chock full of guys who could only be appreciated by the enlightened? Where are all the NBA champions with mediocre WS48s and BPMs but great floor spacing and Overall Skill Sets?
Porzingis fares poorly in the all-in-one metrics because there are some rather obvious flaws in his game. He rebounds like Andrea Bargnani’s little brother, he passes the ball approximately never and he misses lots of shots. He’s an impact defender, and one of the best shot blockers in the league, and that has value. Lots of value even! But he gives a lot of that back by being a low-IQ player on offense who gives away a lot of possessions by taking crummy shots and heroballing his way through double teams. I mean, dude is 7’3” and he’s so pathetically weak you can shut him down with Marcus Smart.
He’s going to be heading into his fifth season and he’s still more potential than production.
I’m also not a Russell guy. It seems like a bit of a facile thing to say but I feel like so much of his value is tied up in shot-making. Scoring is overwhelmingly his top attribute, and his scoring is so entirely shooting based. He doesn’t get to the rim or to the line – he shoots 3s or penetrates past the first line and shoots pull-ups/floaters. Now obviously it worked really well for him this past year, but for him to continue on the upward trajectory you’d expect given his age he’s either going to have to evolve his game significantly (either by finding ways to get to the line or learn to contribute outside of scoring) or take his shot-making prowess to very, very lofty realms. I don’t see a lot of low-hanging fruit for him in terms of improvement I guess is what I’m saying.
It is so difficult these days for me as a Knick fans. Here we are, sitting on a heaping pile of cap space, and there’s nobody that I want to add to the roster that wants our money. Durant is broken. AD is a Laker. Kahwi is the only player out there worth the max cap money that I can see. The way that I figure it, our best option may be to to get RJ in the fold and then add a few veteran mid-level players on reasonable and relatively short contracts. We need a thumper up front and a couple of 3-pt snipers that can play perimeter defense. I’m thinking Julius Randle, Chris Middleton and Tobais Harris as examples. I would ink D’Angelo Russell to a deal too.
As for KP, I get pissed off every time I come here and see that Red Porzingis T-shirt for sale! It’s time to take it off. Good riddance to him.
Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris will both be getting the max. Not knocking them, as they’re both fine players, just noting that you have to take that into account when talking about them.
Porzingis fares poorly in the all-in-one metrics because there are some rather obvious flaws in his game.
depends. bpm and ws thought he was was the 102-135th best player to play 1000 minutes in 2017-18, worth $9-$13m per year today, if healthy. PIPM and RPM thinks he was 32-38th best, worth $27m to $28m per year today, if healthy. hate on the combo metrics if you prefer (with superior autocorrelations and out of sample R squareds), but bpm thought he was a below average defender, and WS had him at the same level per minute defender as steph and super mario. i think you guys are oversimplifying.
KP was worth a max, if healthy–generally you max young guys that post the per 36 numbers he posted, especially when combined with his top-40 productivity (by the lights of RPM/PIPM). But he didn’t want to be a part of the team, and increasingly appeared like a locker room cancer, who didn’t have the IQ requisite to fix his God-awful shot selection. I was mixed about the trade when we did it, but, knowing what I know now, I’m ultimately happy that we traded him, and opted for the lower risk option of two first rounders and a lotto ticket in DSJ, as opposed to a 7’3 max guy coming off an ACL tear–even if we do nothing with the cap space.
Nah, I’m just not warming up to Russell. Middleton and Harris? Nope.
Look to make a smart trade or two, renting cap space in order to get additional first round picks. Of course, look for guys on 1 or 2 year deals to trade for with picks.
The Knicks already have additional second rounders in 2020 and 2021 (the Willie deal). Dallas’s unprotected first in 2021, and possibly Dallas’s first rounder (top 10 protected) in 2023 (or either of the next two years).
Add to this stash! Keep Mitch. Be patient. Start and play DSJ, Knox, and Frank as much as possible. Hope that maybe one of those three takes a nice step forward this year. If not, so be it.
A point guard doesn’t have to be your “at the rim” guy if he shoots well. All Russell’s shooting numbers have gone up, and his assists have as well. He totally lacks in rebounding and defense, but he seems to try at least. And he’s only 22. I have more confidence in him improving than in KP improving, for example. I can see why people here wouldn’t like his game, but he’s a much better risk than a lot of players his age. Is he the right move? Only as a fallback option, perhaps.
That was never the fear about the KP trade, though. It was that they would do something dumb with the cap space that they created due to a “need” to spend money ASAP. Fingers crossed that Perry is smart enough not to do it/has the freedom to do the smart thing!
@38
I don’t think you can judge the KP trade on the basis of subsequent suboptimal decisions. The way you judge it is by ascertaining whether a rational actor would’ve extracted net value from the trade (and imo it’s clear a rational actor would do wonders with this much cap space); not whether Phil Jackson or Steve Mills would have. Judgments of the trade can’t fall victim to results-based thinking.
But yes, I cross my fingers that Perry knows what he’s doing. I’m cautiously optimistic at the moment.
I don’t see D’Angelo Russell as the centerpiece of a future championship team, but I do see him as a guy who you can very likely flip as a piece in a future trade for a superstar who becomes available. He’s young and productive and it’s pretty likely that he’ll be a desirable piece to other teams on that mini-max contract a year or two from now.
Russell, Barrett, future Dallas picks, picks you got from renting out 2019-2020 cap space— now you’re starting to compile some assets. Now you have a package to put together for a real star.
Russell’s improvement is encouraging, and if Morant is not on the table, the Knicks will need a PG more than any other position. I don’t necessarily want him, but I wouldn’t be terribly unhappy if the minimax ends up happening to a 22-year-old PG who seems to be on the rise. Hard to get excited about the shooting efficiency but there are far worse ways to spend that money than a young guy on a decent max.
He stands in contrast to guys like Wiggins and Aaron Gordon, who got big contracts off of potential, not improvement. I think it’s fair to be bullish on Russell, given how well he played last year.
Since “humor” is on the banner of this site, did anyone here catch either:
(1) the fake story about Kawhi pulling out a bag of apples at one of Popovich’s fancy dinners and mumbling to himself, “apple time, apple time.”
Or
(2) Nick Van Exel recently discovering iced coffee?
I highly recommend reading up on both.
I hated the Porzingis trade when they made it and nothing since then is any indication it wasn’t terrible. Unless the rape & assault allegations are true, and then I’d want this guy off my screen forever.
Otherwise he’s a top 5 exciting-to-watch player in the whole NBA. How do you trade such a guy at 22 is beyond me.
$158,000,000 guaranteed to a guy coming off a major knee injury, who hasn’t stepped foot on the court since February 2018. Come opening night, that’s going to be 20 months since his last minute logged. That is extreme risk.
The Knicks unloaded that risk and turned it into forgiving assets. Missing on a $158M salary is orders of magnitude worse than missing on a couple of draft picks. And with the right approach, you can turn those picks into wins.
It was the right choice. Even if he comes back strong, it was defensible.
KP’s lack of development in his first three seasons is another reason to be kind of skeptical of him. He looked like an amazing prospect as a rookie, then didn’t really develop much in his second season. And then in his third season, he once again didn’t develop much. There was no meaningful tick up in his numbers, he was essentially the same player in year 3 that he was in year 1. Sure, he added some usage, blocked a few more shots in season 3, had a high 3P%, yes. Those are all things around the edges. He didn’t become hugely more impactful in that time. His development or lack thereof was pretty disappointing to me.
Usually young players improve a lot in their first few years, because they learn some things, and because their body develops and they add strength. But Porzigins is not a particularly smart player, at least on offense, and he has really struggled to add meaningful strength. He has an unusual body type, 7’3″ with a giraffe-like center of gravity.
And then, halfway through the third season, he suffered the major injury that always seemed like it was right around the corner. There’s a very good chance that guy is going to end up on future “worst contracts in the NBA lists.”
I just saw the greatest Knicks fan Twitter handle ever lol
I don’t know who it is, but the handle is Frennis Smithikina Jr” lolololol
Well played
He’s hated by most fans, but Stefan Bondy is far and away the best read among people covering the Knicks. He’s not biased as a fan and not worried about losing access to the team and MSG. That allows him to tell unpleasant truths.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/ny-anthony-davis-trade-20190616-jphs443wa5a2vgjac5g7cp4kji-story.html
They probably will but neither deserve it.
KP was a lot better in season 3 than in either of his 1st two seasons. He was a much better 3 point shooter, had more moves off the dribble, and could score in more ways. He also got a bit stronger.
The lack of higher model scores reflects on the inadequacy of those models and not his skill.
His role was changing, the amount of attention he was getting as the #1 option changed, and he was just beginning to understand when to pass and when to take the tough shot as the #1 when he went down with the ACL.
If you want to argue his basketball IQ is a little suspect, I wouldn’t even argue that. His shot selection was painful to watch for awhile. But he did not understand his role and had no help from other players when Hardaway (lmao) got hurt. He also had no PG to make it easier for him. However, despite that, he WAS finally figuring it at the end despite being asked to do WAY more than his skill set was ready for. He was ready to be a very good #2 option on a good team playing with a legit #1 and a good PG. He was not ready to be a #1 option on shit team with no PG.
I would try to get Leonard for the max. Since that is unlikely to happen try for Durant and then take on bad contracts with 1 year left for draft picks. Build for 2020.
Although Russell and Randle put up good offensive numbers the Knicks are never going to win anything meaningful until they get strong defensive players!
Maxing him was a an indefensible risk, but maxing KD at 32 is ok? I’m very curious to see him with Doncic next year. Doncic is potentially the #1 strat is talking about and a good distributor.
Maxing a pre-Achilles tear Durant made sense, because Durant is one of the greatest players in the history of the league. Those guys tend to age pretty well. Post-Achilles tear Durant, I’m against that. I’m not into that idea.
what the Knicks can do is to offer Russell the minimax, then keep the remaining cap space. Add Barrett and go with a Russell / DSJ / Barrett / Knox / Mitch lineup. It would be a pretty exciting lineup to watch, with absolute tons of potential and still a lot of cap flexibility to make moves. Then use the remaining cap to add bad contracts for assets and go building slowly.
I like this plan. As long as we don’t add meaningless veterans, I’m fine with being more competitive. What strat and his strawman can’t understand is that nobody is against winning with a young team. We’re simply against adding bad veterans who have zero chance to outperform their contracts.
This lineup would have 5 players who are all young and on decent contracts, with a lot of room for them to outperform their deals (Mitch is pretty much a lock to do so already anyway).
It’s a shame KD got injured as going after him was my favorite plan. But there are plenty of ways this offseason can still be a success for the Knicks.
He got trashed for being a jackass that pissed KP off then publically mulling over a trade in what looked like a pissy revenge move. But the KP didn’t improve and got seriously injured. You can fully hold both ends of the argument, you just need to acknowledge that the situation changed.
But I don’t wanna talk about Phil. I’m here to talk about the draft..
Agree to disagree.
When people talk about signing Russell what do you think he’s worth and what do you think he’ll get? There’s a hell of a lot of cap space out there.
Why are we not talking about Vonleh? I liked that guy. Malcolm Brogdon too.
So BKN just renounced their rights to RHJ, making him an UFA. What do we think about him? He looked to be on an upward trajectory until last season, when his TS% plummeted (terrific defender, but the dude can’t shoot 3s or long 2s, really). I remember loving his profile at draft time, and in general just liking his game, but do we have any reason to believe his last season was an outlier? He could probably be had on a KOQ-esque deal, which could be smart, depending on our goals this offseason.
I like RHJ a lot, at the right salary. Meaning anything in 7 figures.
Helllooooo Milwaukee:
https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1140692815061688320?s=19
Get Bud and co. on the phone, Perry!
Ersan is non-guaranteed for the last year of his contract, btw. Ersan for their first plus a future second is a no-brainer if we’re not maxing anyone.
KP was certainly worth the max in the right situation. He will retain most of his perceived value unless he sustains a truly catastrophic injury (blows out his back, broken foot a la Yao, or something like that.) For the next 5 years, it is a virtual certainty that Dallas will be able to get back what they gave up for him, even if he continues to play like he did for us.
My feeling is that there was little choice but to trade him, given the FA market this summer, the albatross contracts of TH2 and Lee, and the leverage KP had in risking the QO and getting nothing for him. DSJ still has some potential (I’m not optimistic, but it’s something) and the two #1 picks are very valuable (especially now that they are guaranteed to be conveyed.) And there’s no guarantee that he stays in Dallas anyway, so they took on all the risk.
I was a huge KP fan but would have made the rumored Celtics trade (check the record!) Last year, the bloom was off the rose even before the injury. I saw a tired, hapless, low-IQ player out there from Thanksgiving on. More importantly, I saw a guy who wants to be Durant or AD or Giannis, who should be focused on being Kareem or Dirk or Duncan. Unless he gets a handle on who he is and who he is not, he will always underachieve.
We should take Ilyasova off the Bucks
Hell, I’ll take both of ’em for the right price. Give me all of those picks.
The Bucks’ pick is #30 though. I’d take on Ilyasova for a year for #30 but I don’t know what they’d give us to take two years of Tony Snell at $12M per. Snell is not a horrendous player but he doesn’t make a lot of sense for us win curve-wise.
Milwaukee doesn’t have much to offer in the way of draft picks. Pass.
rhj is a jumpshot away from being a really good starter…. this far into his career and being this poor though is discouraging but ppl were saying the same things about trevor ariza….
and if rhj could eventually shoot 3s like ariza… he’s way better than him…. and without any improvement he’s a solid rotation guy…
Yeah, I think taking Ilyasova and not Snell together is the way to go. A late first plus a future second is reasonable value for a one year expiring at 12m. But Milwaukee doesn’t have many picks available to them, and the ones they do have are pretty far into the future, and the Snell contract is pretty hefty. Now, if there was something like:
Ersan + Snell + DiVincenzo + 2019 30th pick + 2025 first or two future seconds
That would certainly have my attention.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/jalen-rose-has-a-problem-with-basketball-analytics
We’re going to have to talk about this, at some point. Jalen Rose is so out of his element it actually makes me angry to read. I mean, J — how’s it goink?
Rose seems to have no concept of the vast gulf between understanding risk management as a front office manager and doing actual basketball things on a basketball court. His use of “manipulate” seems more colloquial than its neutral use, i.e. “I can make the numbers say whatever I want to say to belittle your experience and supplant your power to my benefit.” The causal argument at play — that black ex-players are being forced out via a grand racist conspiracy helmed by math nerds — is willfully ignorant, and it does a great disservice to the very-real racial biases that permeate professional sports.
I like Dante too, but want no part of Snell. Ersan + Dante + #30 for our 2019 2nd plus cash considerations.
I agree with JK and Jowles that it’s probably a bad bet to max porzingis but mostly because of injury risk. But I agree with a lot of Srats points, bigs are really tough to evaluate because they are way more dependent on other players then wings/guards….
System and your pg can make a huge difference, I went and looked at Stoudemire and Chandler pre nash/cp3 they weren’t anything special til they got with those pgs and learned how to play effectively. So when they left those guards they were still really productive. I know I cherry picked a few bigs but I don’t think you guys would say porzingis is less talented then those guys…
The reason i brought up stoudemire and chandler is because they played on some shitty teams with suspect coaches, if porzingis stays healthy playing with Doncic and being coached by Carlise can take him to the next level.
Saying all this, you never give bigs that have injury problems big contracts we learned this lesson so many times with mcdyess and stoudemire…. trading him was the best option…. if he stays healthy good for him
RHJ is definitely a guy we should be targeting in free agency. He’s got talent, he’s young, he unrestricted, and he should be reasonably cheap.
The wording of Stein’s tweet is a little ambiguous. It sounds like they’re only looking to dump one of Snell or Ilyasova, not both. Either way, I would definitely take a future 1st and a future 2nd for either of them but preferably Ilyasova since his contract his shorter and smaller. Don’t think they’re able to trade a 1st until 2024 or 2025 due to other trades.
Here’s my final lotto big board (non-Knicks-specific, changed a bit after finally seeing some draft models/looking at more stats/film) before the draft hits (left off Bol Bol and Jontay Porter, both of whom would’ve easily made this list if not for injury concerns); what’s nice as far as the Knicks are concerned is that we have a few good opportunities at netting value with each pick we have in the draft:
1. Zion
2. Ja
3. RJ (now moderately ahead of Culver in my estimation)
4. Clarke
5. Hayes
6. Culver
7. Shamorie Ponds (possibly available at 55!)
8. Alen Smailagic
9. Coby White
10. Chuma Okeke
11. Grant Williams
12. Goga Bitadze
13. John Konchar (likely going undrafted)
14. Matisse Thybulle
What’s the story with Shamorie Ponds? People on this blog seem to love him but he’s always projected as a high 2RP on the mock draft boards. His stat line doesn’t jump off the page. Wazzup with this guy?
Seems absurd to call Porzingis a “big” when he took 42% of his attempts from >16′ during the 2017-18 season. Contrast that with some other offensively skilled “bigs,” like Embiid (31%), Aldridge (23%), Towns (35%), Vucevic (30%) and Jokic (29%). Hell, Giannis had about 60% more dunks this year in 2358 minutes than Porzingis has had in his entire career. It’s kind of strange to apply this “big” label to KP when he plays a much more diverse game than his fellow bigs in, say, Gobert, Capela, and Adams.
He’s closer to a wing in terms of his long game — Wiggins (46%), Barnes (45%) and Doncic (47%) seem more appropriate comparisons. And he didn’t even get to play in 2018-19, where we might have seen that number increase, as they tend to when a player ages.
The 2019 Bucks pick (#30) was already traded to the Suns but it’s 17-30 protected so it’s available…I think?
@69 – You make a great point about big men that are hurt. That’s the #1 reason to stay away from Durant too. Too much risk.
@72,
It’s a couple of things. Shamorie was showing high levels of NCAA productivity in his first year (enough to justify drafting him, though it’s safe to say that he would’ve went undrafted if he declared after his first year): .151 WS/40, 7.4 BPM, with a split of 21/5/4/2.5 per 40 on .37.5% from 3 (high volume) and 49.4% from 2 (high volume). From a 6-1 PG, that communicates to me (at least) that he’s highly active on both offense (good passing + scoring stats) and defense (good rebounding + steals, despite his lack of size). He stagnated in his second year (though his usage went through the roof) and then made a leap in his 3rd, becoming one of the best players in the NCAA. He has a continued record of very high quality production, in areas that are pretty projectable for the NBA (2 pt%, rebounds, steals, assists), while showing he can maintain a decent 3 pt efficiency at high volume.
His film shows a diverse offensive game (lots of crafty moves to the basket–a good amount of shake and finesse to his game) and solid athleticism (a few dunks, and he finishes at the rim consistently). His passing is decent, but St. John’s also lacked firepower when he was on the team (see his usage, which peaked at 31% in his sophomore year), so those numbers are possibly depressed. But he’s at the very least a competent passer for a PG and sports a 2:1 A:TO.
Defensively, he’s always going to be one-position, and he’s not an amazing defender, but he’s at very least break-even because he’s very good with his hands and a plus rebounder for his position.
He’s a really well-rounded player with a lot of polish on his game, and he’s not conspicuously weak in any area. And his shooting and rebounding are real pluses for him–he’s pretty legit in those areas, I think. In a weak draft like this, that’s enough to get him into my top 10 and ahead of Coby White, who I think is a worse passer, defender, and general decision maker.
@67
Jowles have you read Bomani Jones’ New Yorker interview on the same subject, it’s a more nuanced perspective
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/bomani-jones-on-the-nba-analytics-and-race?fbclid=IwAR1UUPJ6l1UcqURaNPtTxXW8n-HQ5IBWR2kiEVTAB03zOQEO20ikdkDBIdg
There are also plenty of examples of big men going to shit show teams (those are the kind that get the high picks, after all) and being productive immediately. I’m not a huge DeAndre Ayton fan, but the idea that it’s unfair to judge Porzingis’ offensive game after four seasons feels a little ridiculous if Ayton can put up a .608 TS% as a rookie on a team worse than most of Porzingis’.
Three full seasons (and then a bad injury) of basically zero growth is just very concerning if this guy is supposed to be worth 5/$158M.
Shamorie has to be benefiting from some home cooking…
That Jalen Rose interview, it is irritating. I wish the interviewer had said, “you know, the numbers suggest you weren’t a particularly good basketball player.”
As for Bomani, he never played in the league so I don’t really care what he says….
ponds should be a lotto pick… and he’s absolutely no worse than kemba was coming out…. he’s probably a lot better actually and might have a similar career….
the only thing is that he’s short… and there’s always been a huge bias against short pg’s… cp3 went as low as he did because he was short…. but 2nd rd for someone as talented as ponds is criminal…
he’s good… he’s creative… he’s got range… i have little doubt that he’ll be a useful nba player and he could be a lot more than that…
To Jowles point, i think a lot of coaches and others have said you are who you can defend and I believe that to be an accurate statement. As Frank and Strat have pointed out we are a good defensive team with Porzingis on the court don’t think you can say that about the wings you mentioned Jowles.. Offensively i completely agree with you but would be curious how he compared to Nowitzki in that regard
To noble, how much is that defense worth vs what he can do offensively. I agree that he has stagnated offensively and the older you get the harder it is to break bad habits. Again I think it was the right move to trade him, I just was saying i think coaching and who you play with have huge effects on bigs in particular. I haven’t watched much Suns would be curious to see how much they gave the ball to ayton and just got out the way to let him work as we have seen with KP…. Most players peak from 26-30 and if healthy it will be interesting to see if porzingis can make an offensive leap…
I would be interested to see what people here think about olajuwon, was a tremendous rebounder and defender but TS wasn’t as high as other dominant centers….
Edit: not comparing Porzingis to Olajuwon at all
Yeah Shamorie Ponds shot over 80% from the free throw line, over 50% from 2pt range, and averaged 2.6 steals vs 2.0 turnovers a game this year. I think he’s a pretty good bet in the 2nd round to be a good NBA player, and I like his chances for success more than most point guards in this draft.
I also really like the idea of Julius Randle if we can get him for a 3 years deal around $17M a year. He can pass, dribble, and shoots 34% from deep which kinda makes him like a bizarro Noah Vonleh. His defense is an issue, but considering he doesn’t play center he’s not as likely a risk to be exposed in P&Rs the way Kanter was. It also allows us to play one of Kornet and Robinson at all times which should keep our defensive units intact.
If KD gets $38M of our $71M in cap space, that leaves us $33M to work with. I don’t think there’s any way we can get D’Lo and Randle together with that money, but the challenge remains “how do you build a young 43 win team to add Durant to when he’s ready to come back?”
It’s not an enviable position, but it’s the one the Knicks are left with.
We are apparently adding the Westies coach to the big team coaching staff next season, which sounds good to me. He seems to have done a nice job with the kids in the G league
It was starting to look like the Knicks were going to trade Frank on draft night to free up some more cap space, but now that they probably have a lot of excess space and no one good to put into it, it makes less sense to trade him unless the offer is very attractive. No need to take some trash 2nd rounders. Better to take a look at him for another year unless someone offers something good.
This might be your worst hot take ever. Bondy is a douche of the first order. First of all he should get his facts straight if he is masquarading as a “sports writer”. Durant ruptured an Achilles not an ACL. Secondly, you claim to be a gambler and Bondy is giving his hot take from the perspective that is the absolute bane of all gamblers, namely PLAYING RESULTS. I am undefeated when I play results. So is Bondy…. whoppie!
Don’t let the facts get in the way of Bondy being needlessly smarmy:
The Festrunk brothers waltzed into the Knick FO 10 days prior to the trade deadline and demanded a trade. Most here questioned the wisdom of giving a twig 153 million after he played 3 seasons with diminishing returns as the pages on the calendar flipped before that so a deal was made.
Did you want to play a game of cosmic chicken with your only movable asset? Did you want to force a player who wants out to take 153M grumbling?
Let’s face the facts. KP is elite at exactly one thing after 3 seasons…. shot blocking. Horrid rebounder. Horrid shot selection/efficiency. A Prima Dona of the highest order. Can’t stay healthy 3 consecutive seasons. Zero stamina.
There were a gaggle of reasons to move him.
Had Durant not ruptured his Achilles this awful piece never would have been written. The End!
Sure…. let’s pay the bizzaro Vonleh 10 times more than the real Vonleh!!! Asset management at its finest. Randle is a better player than Vonleh but not by an enormous amount.
Randle isn’t the sort of player the Knicks should be looking for. Either very high end or amass lottery tickets in the draft. There is no sense paying 17 M a year to a player that doesn’t move the needle.
If the Knicks can get more than one 2nd rounder for Frank it would be a coup at this point. Most of the 2nd round selections from Frank’s own draft have vastly outperformed him so far. Chances are the Knicks get a player much better than Frank with the hypothetical 2nd rounders they would get for him in a trade scenario.
Frank is garbage and no team should trade for him. Yes I’m only saying that because I still have 5% hope that he somehow becomes a decent player.
There’s another option: not signing Durant.
I think the deal is that Rose has a germ of an intelligent point (basically the idea that stats jobs that are dominating the modern NBA are almost entirely occupied by white people and what that means in a predominantly black sport) and he then just goes down a bizarre tangent that didn’t make any sense.
Yeah, I take issue with the idea that the general take here was that KP was untouchable when Phil was interested in trading him. Plenty of us (like you noted) were fine with trading KP. The package just had to be a good one. I didn’t trust Phil to get a good deal because he was, you know, a terrible GM.
Reading this assessment of Zion makes me want to cry (from an analytics guy at Uproxx’s Dime blog; top 100 overview of the NBA draft):
[url]//docs.google.com/document/d/182H2WSrewAPwObCIkFFOr0xDf-V4HyvrVWX6oZjpb1c/edit)[/url]
Is there any price point at which you sign DeMarcus Cousins on a multi-year deal betting he can stay healthy and you can add pieces? What price point if you’re not the Knicks?
@88 you’re absolutely right, and my preferred course of action would be to go full rebuild. Let’s take on some big contracts for 1RPs and continue to put pieces around Mitchell Robinson and RJ Barrett. But you just KNOW the Knicks will sign Durant and that will make things a lot harder on contending.
If Durant stays in the Bay Area, that makes things very interesting. The Knicks already got out in the public that they will go full Atlanta Hawks, and that’s encouraging. Let’s go get the 30th pick in this draft and then go take some picks from Washington or somebody looking to park a bad contract.
bob (from neptune city, cuz, that’s what i want to believe) is on fire…fuck kp, he was about to become a serious “i’m gonna go play in europe if you don’t trade me” type issue…
hard to tell just how conducive randle’s playing time is to a team winning games, cuz, he’s been on some really shitty teams…i like watching him play though…he’s got some moments where he can really dominate…
a good 3rd or 4th piece maybe…until we figure out our 1st and 2nd (maybe 3rd too) piece, he’s not right for our team…
What is Randle’s anticipated market anyway? He might be redundant on the Pelicans now that they’re getting Zion, so he could potentially leave. If he does, how many teams are willing to pay him? Which teams even want him? If he could be got for a reasonable price, he could be worth it.
I think it’s possible he improves his 3P shooting to the 36-38% range, which could make him a reasonable complementary piece to Mitch (or not, depending on how much he wants to clog the paint) and would fit well with Kornet. We probably shouldn’t make plans based on how well players would pair up with Luke Kornet, but Randle seems like he could be a decent piece at the right price.
?????
A germ of what intelligent point? What does it mean? Is there any evidence teams are excluding qualified black stat geeks? Rose is complaining because the stat geeks are an alternative to the all knowing ex-player who has been doing things wrong his entire career? They didn’t defer to the “eye test” that guys who played the game “understand”?
I always thought one of the attractions of sports was it was one of the most egalitarian endeavors. The best guys play…. black or white. If the best people at analytics were from Mars…. teams analytics departments should be chock full of Martians.
If he can’t defend in space even a little bit on switches he is a more offensively skilled Kanter. Interestingly defense gets more important the deeper you go in the playoffs.
Not from Neptune City but lived in Freehold and Clarksburg for many years and played the Shark River course dozens of times 🙂
What are thoughts on our 2nd round pick?
I like the idea of Smailagic, but there’s also Jaylen Hands as a fast guard (I’m assuming Ponds will already be gone.)
I don’t know if Tacko is really an option… maybe Louis King if he drops? Terence Davis might be a perfect fit next to RJ.
I disagree with Rose for what I believe is the pulling of the race card, here, despite having a legitimate bone to pick about black representation in the highest-power positions (owner, POBO, GM). It’s also fair to be dismayed by the lessened opportunities of black students to achieve success in STEM fields. (That’s backed by a whole lot of evidence, and is a multivariate social problem.)
The idea that implicit bias is absent in American sports (or anywhere) is pretty silly. Most everyone holds the vestiges of racism when living in a country as brazenly racist as ours. I think the easiest counterexample is the NFL’s dearth of black coaches (or the higher likelihood of them being fired) before the Rooney rule was put into place. And even that has been unsuccessful.
https://theundefeated.com/features/the-state-of-the-black-manager-in-major-league-baseball-would-disgust-jackie-robinson/
I’d love to somehow get chuma okeke, but I doubt he lasts that long
Exactly this. He’s alleging bias against predominantly-black ex-players because decision-makers want to hire people with backgrounds in business management and statistical analysis, which by its very nature diminishes the value of “common sense” and “real-world experience,” which are only held by ex-players. I do agree that black men are disenfranchised, here, since they’re far less likely to enter STEM than their white counterparts, and that’s entirely a cultural phenomenon. (Note: if you disagree, you are, by definition, a biological racist.)
Rose is saying, “Do you even watch the games, bro?” and then claiming it’s impossible for a person with an advanced degree in statistics to know as much about basketball as a person who’s been out there “in the flow of the game,” which is, you know, to put it mildly… fucking moronic.
Tim Cook is neither an electrical engineer nor a programmer, and yet he’s at the helm of one of the world’s largest, most successful and most diverse electronic device companies. Perhaps Jalen Rose could tell us how that came to be.
I don’t think we should overpay Julius Randle, but he’s a really solid NBA player. The last 2 seasons he’s posted a >.600 TS%, he’s improved his 3 point shooting and he’s also a very good rebounder. Not sure how he’s gotten the reputation as a bad defender, but comparing him to Kanter might be a little extreme.
I’d gladly take him at the right price.
Randle is the kind of player that is not valued all that highly right now– the old-school big-booty type PF that doesn’t block a lot of shots but does bang inside and rebound. On the one hand, I think that kind of player is a little bit undervalued in today’s game, but that also means you can probably find a similar player for less than what it would cost to sign Randle.
i always knew math hates minorities…at least that’s been part of my excuse for sucking at it for so long (curse these latino genetics of mine)…at one point in life, i could dance pretty decent though…
actually, i was gonna say something insightful about how greater intelligence doesn’t necessarily equate to greater happiness (the only scorecard in life that really matters?)…sadly, seems like increased intelligence does in fact give a greater chance towards happiness (yeah, that doesn’t seem fair):
well, there it is…while sucking at math, i’ve still somehow managed to get some joy out of this long strange trip…
hmmmm, i wonder if someones perceived attractiveness has any correlation to their happiness…
Randle is a crappy defender though. I don’t see much value in paying him $10+M per season. If you’re a non-stretch, non-rim protecting PF you better be a good defender. I’d pass on him.
It’s really not a good point at all though. There’s structural racism preventing black people from equal educational opportunities and inheriting wealth. That pretty much explains the lack of black STEM grads and black billionaires. It has little/nothing to do with the NBA being biased against black owners or black analytics gurus. It’s a structural problem, and while it’s a good problem to try to solve, it’s not the NBA’s job to fix.
Teams should hire whoever helps them win most. If they are short staffing black scouts / coaches it’s a much better point, as those are positions where playing experience more directly translates. Being an owner especially has nothing to do with playing the game.
Jalen comes off as incoherent and bitter about the game having completely passed him by.
Bomani, on the other hand, makes a much more thoughtful point. As NBA front offices are increasingly filled with people from STEM backgrounds as opposed to former players, they will become less diverse due to educational and economic inequities that keep people of color out of STEM, as well as all of the racism baked into the STEM field itself. That’s a problem, both ethically and optically in a league with a predominantly black player base.
I can’t claim to have a ton of great ideas as to what the NBA specifically can do to combat this, but doing what they can to expand opportunities for POC in STEM (and POC in general, for that matter) would be a good start. Instituting something like the NFL’s Rooney Rule for NBA front office hires seems like a good idea, too. As ham-fisted as that may seem, the fact of the matter is you really can’t trust the NBA’s almost entirely white ownership group to not let their own biases affect who they believe is most qualified for the job(s).
@84 – There’s not a word you said that I can disagree with. While it was a shock when it happened, I am 1000% behind trading away Porsuckiz. Nothing that the Knicks have done since last summer has worked out but that’s because the Knicks suck at luck.
—
Supposedly this draft is deep. If would be nice to move up from the back end of the draft and after realizing that the Nets pick 31st, trading for one of Milwaukee’s salary dumps makes more sense today. I don’t see any player that I think is worth max cap dollars that I think we can sign that is worth that. Kawhi and Butler are the top 2. Maybe Kyrie. They won’t take our money. We can’t give the money away. So let’s take a contract like Ilyasova (preferably) or Snell’s and roll the dice with a player and a better pick. I actually think Ersan is a good fit next to Robinson.
The second round is such a crap shoot. Give Scott and Mills credit for grabbing Robinson and then signing Trier last year. So far they’ve given me confidence that they’re working hard and know talent. As much as I try to find a glimmer of hope in free agency, collecting draft picks seems to me to be the better long term approach.
No one would argue with that erected straw man….. but Rose’s assertion that there is something “not right” with black men’s career paths being decided by white math geeks who can’t bounce a basketball seems entirely wrong when viewed that NBA managements are typically populated by more black executives than any other big business I am aware of.
And for the unwoke…. what on earth is a “biological racist?” Seriously. I studied biochemistry for years and was never made aware of a gene that predisposes toward racism.
Also …. words have commonly agreed to definitions. dis·en·fran·chise….verb
past tense: disenfranchised; past participle: disenfranchised
deprive (someone) of the right to vote.
“the law disenfranchised some 3,000 voters on the basis of a residence qualification”
deprive (someone) of a right or privilege.
“a measure that would disenfranchise people from access to legal advice”
ARCHAIC
deprive (someone) of the rights and privileges of a free inhabitant of a borough, city, or country.
If there aren’t more black math geeks that choose to go into BB analytics, they are hardly disenfranchised. The NBA isn’t preventing qualified mathematicians from applying on basis of skin color to the best of my understanding.
Scientific racism or race biology is what it’s more commonly known by. Nothing to do with being a racist via genes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_racism
The argument that black people achieve less in the sciences due to genetic inferiority, for one—
And people of color are not immune from implicit bias themselves. Consider the famous doll test.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_and_Mamie_Clark
Nothing quite so oxymoronic than a term like “scientific racism”. Using science to prove racism is sort of like Thomas Aquinas “proving God” in Summa Theologica.
Back to Jalen Rose…. White math geeks don’t discriminate against black people….. they discriminate against low efficiency chuckers like him that score pointzz and look good by the eye test. That is why he is mystified and insulted.
What’s even worse to me, though, is that Rose patently refutes his own points numerous times! “I’m not saying that you have to play the game to be an announcer or to be an expert,” then what the fuck are you saying?
Huh?
Do not want to read – does he cite any stats for this whitening of NBA offices? The analysis depts teams are adding skew strongly white I’m sure, but does that mean other jobs are getting cut? This is a very confused argument.
He’s soft-pedaling like a pundit, because that’s exactly what he is. This leaves enough wiggle room that he can be the gatekeeper of “qualified basketball minds,” just like he wants to be the gatekeeper on which statistics are valid markers of player ability.
He’s the archetype of “stats are fine, unless I disagree with them.” That whole interview should have been about anti-intellectualism. He’s a sterling example.
the pickings in the 2nd rd are very slim….. it’s very conceivable that none of the projected guys make it more than a year or two in the nba…. the aforementioned ponds would be the heist of the century but him falling that far would be wishful thinking….
tacko fall is an interesting name…. he’s worth the pick even if he’s only a boban type of low minute specialist…. jalen mcdaniels is kind of sort of interesting but that’s really scraping the bottom of the barrel….
dan gafford for whatever reason is being projected in the 2nd rd by nbadraft.net but he’s probably a 1st rder … if he falls he’d be a real good pickup….
What is the question/confusion?
I’m not sure what you mean by “prove.” Are you criticizing the many who have used science to justify or encourage the existence of racism?
@115
I think Gafford is projected to go in the 2nd (at least thats what I’ve seen from most mocks) because he kind of stagnated in his sophomore year –almost identical WS and BPM btwn his freshman and sophomore years. That’s probably arkansas’ fault (they tried to turn him into a post up big and his turnover percentage spiked) but I think that’s why he’s going to be picked in the second.
Okeke, Ponds, Dedric Lawson (another guy I like), Smailagic, and Konchar (who probably goes undrafted, totally undeservedly) are all likely available in the second round–but getting an earlier pick is a necessity if we want Okeke (might get picked in the late 20s) or Ponds (I think he’s going to go more towards the 30s than the 50s) in particular. Any of those guys would be a solid get in the 2nd. So the pickings are slim but not totally hopeless.
I have no idea what to think about Tacko. But he and Mitch together would be hilarious despite the fact that the lanes would be so clogged on O.
I think Bob’s point is that “race” is a social construct without any actual factual basis in truth the same way that a particular man made conception of “God” is without any actual factual basis. Using any logical principles to prove the existence of either just leads to a type of pseudoscience where a method is amended to arrive at a preconceived conclusion like phrenology or Aquinas’ argument on contingency. In the former case, scientific racists proceed to form a psuedoscientific explanation examining cranium size to rationalize their social investment in the existence of racial hierarchies. In the latter case, Aquinas formed a teleological explanation for why every finite thing in the universe has an original creator to rationalize his deist Catholic beliefs as necessary. Both are religions masquerading under the veneer of scientific jargon.
I hope this isn’t a trick question but…. um…. yes? I criticize the use of science for anything other than than the systematic pursuit of knowledge.
Rose is saying, “Do you even watch the games, bro?” and then claiming it’s impossible for a person with an advanced degree in statistics to know as much about basketball as a person who’s been out there “in the flow of the game,” which is, you know, to put it mildly… fucking moronic.
Let’s try this another way.
Does someone who has spent years studying and analyzing the game of chess BUT NEVER ACTUALLY PLAYING IT know as much about chess as a real grandmaster?
I understand there’s some residual bitterness over the resistance to the rise of analytics in sport but the assumption that some fat white shlub who’s never done anything more athletic than take out the garbage understands the totality of basketball better than someone who has spent their life playing the game at the highest level is pretty fucking moronic as well.
What analytics said the Mavs were going to beat the Cavs in the 2011 Finals? What analytics predicted the Raptors would be NBA champs this year? The Giants beating the Patriots TWICE in the Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichek era?
Which isn’t to say fat white shlubs with math degrees don’t have something to contribute to understanding basketball. But when those guys are being elevated above and beyond the insight you get from …you know…playing the game?
Mike
First of all… what does the melanin content of the “shlub’s” skin have to do with anything? Is his hoops insight enhanced by his innate blackness?
The Giants beat the Pats the first time because they had a great pass rush (Strahan, Tuck and Osi) that got to Brady’s Achilles heel…. he loathed being banged around AND Belicheck made the huge mistake of calling a blitz in cover zero against a guy who just doesn’t panic (Eli). Hello Plaxico!
And …. by the way…. how do you think grandmasters become grandmasters at chess…… by decades of analysis of the game…. not by feel or the eye test.
I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the guys who have “played the game” go home and that the “nerds with the slide rules” are going to just take over the whole sport. Clearly there is a place for both kinds of people.
It’s tedious having this argument really, because I feel like I’ve been through this before like 20 years ago on baseball message boards. It was the exact same argument. “Hurr durr you VORPies think you know baseball, well you can’t use your BABIPs to measure David Eckstein’s heart and by the way I think Ozzie Guillen knows a thing or two more than you do about baseball. He has played the game, so don’t make fun of him for bunting in the first inning. Hurr durr.”
Analytics aren’t a fucking crystal ball, and anyway it was the Heat that was in the 2011 Finals. And Nate Silver’s (not even very good) analytics predicted that the Raptors would beat the Warriors, SO THERE. STATS 4EVA. NERDS WIN AGAIN.
I hate to be that guy, but I would like to remind you guys that the social sciences do in fact exist and people are pursuing knowledge in those areas too, despite the claims to the contrary among our contemporaries.
T-Wolves aggressively shopping Wiggins’ apparently. He’s one of the worst players in the NBA and he’s making around 120 million for the next 4 years. What would it take from the Wolves for you to take Wiggins?
Way more than they’d ever give.
I’d take Wiggins if they throw in KAT.
This is a sloppy comparison, IMO. In organizational sports there is a division of labor and knowledge within franchises that you don’t see in individual sport/game competitions like chess. Yes, it is true that a Morey or a Hinkie do not have anywhere near the same intimate level of knowledge regarding on the court basketball play as an NBA veteran like Jalen Rose does. But they are executive level personnel, not basketball labor, so “playing the game” at an NBA level isn’t necessary requisite for them to manage their organizations. If this were so, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan would be the two greatest executives of all time. And then there is the Jerry West type exception, but fuck it, he’s white, played at a HOF level, and was a great basketball executive before analytics took hold.
If it were up to me the entire NBA organizational structure would be restructured top-down so that the league would “de-corporatized.” I would create a situation where the players own half of the league, union veterans have major managerial say, there would be no private ownership of franchises, and they would be managed under a public trust that kicks back to the municipal communities who subsidize their arenas.
Wiggins has FOUR more years on the max deal he signed. There’s nothing the Wolves could possibly give us that I’d take for that. Maybe if they give us KAT, but then we just become Minnesota east for the next 4 years. I’d probably take him if I’m managing a team like the Hornets or Pistons, if the Wolves throw a ton of picks into the deal, but that’s about it.
Wiggins kills any team he lands on for four years.
Maybe 3 first rounders… per year… for the duration of his contract.
GMs study and analyze the game of chess, too. That’s in part how they become grandmasters.
The bigger problem with your analogy is that chess is a game wherein there is no environment-based luck. There are objectively good moves and there are objectively bad moves, and they are rather easily quantified to near-perfection by chess engines, and improved upon by the finest AI known to the public. There are discrete turns wherein an opponent is fully unimpeded from making any legal move. When one player makes a mistake, his opponent has full authority to punish the error. There are no interaction effects in chess. There is no physical fatigue beyond the mental; a gravely-ill, deliriously-sleepy, quadriplegic chess player is fully capable of playing the best possible move, should it present itself. Not a good comparison at all.
I have friends in Minnesota that have a hard time justifying or putting anu kind of positive spin on Wiggins (outside of “he’s young”), so yeah it’s an albatross.
I mean, the Wolves gave a max contract to a dude that essentially produces with about the same level of efficiency as Lance Thomas on a basketball court, and we still have to read here that “those GMs know more than us about the game”, so I guess there’s not much that can be done.
There’s absolutely nothing Morey’s protege will otter that makes Andrew Wiggins a worthwhile asset. For it to even be a conversation they’d have to give up 3 unprotected first round picks and Karl Anthony Towns.
You don’t need a person to pick players for a basketball team. In fact it’d probably be better for many franchises to simply plug data into an algorithm that averages all the various advanced metrics.
Did Deep Blue beat Kasparov? That’s a way harder trick than picking between Kevin Knox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
You can’t measure heart yes but heart’s not a thing really.