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Thursday, September 20, 2018

Knicks Morning News (2018.09.13)

  • [NYDN] 5 Feast of San Gennaro foods and events you shouldn’t miss
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    Mamma mia!

    Navigating the always-crowded Feast of San Gennaro in Manhattan’s Little Italy can be hectic and confusing as you try to distinguish the tourist traps from authentic eats.

    So we’ve narrowed down some of the must-hit events and food stands so you don’t have to waste time figuring it out…

  • [NYDN] EXCLUSIVE: Two sets of rules in NYPD discipline
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    Not all crimes and punishments are equal in the NYPD.

    One boss dated an ex-con, another is accused of fudging statistics and encouraging mass arrests – one was demoted and the other lost a few vacation days.

    Which offense is worse? Having poor taste in men, according to the NYPD.

    Probationary Captain…

  • [NYDN] Here are other stars who criticized their own movies as Viola Davis admits she regrets doing ‘The Help’
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    Viola Davis is far from the only star to share a critical view about a past movie role.

    Davis told The New York Times she regrets doing the 2011 drama “The Help” — which centers on a pair of black maids working for white families during the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s — because she believes

  • [NYDN] EXCLUSIVE: Thousands sign petition to keep Victims Compensation Fund going for 9/11-illness sufferers
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    More than 130,000 people have signed a Change.org petition to extend the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund, which provides financial assistance to those suffering from illnesses caused by Ground Zero contaminants.

    The petition was put together by John Feal, a 9/11 survivor advocate who plans to collect…

  • [NYDN] The man with the sign and me: My Catholic faith and my children’s innocence in an age of sex abuse scandals
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    A man who says he’s a survivor of child sex abuse often stands outside of my children’s Catholic elementary school at pickup with a sign. The sign describes how a priest at our parish abused him, decades ago. The priest is long dead, and anyone associated with the cover-up has left the parish.

  • [NYDN] How to vote: The Daily News’ picks on primary day
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 1:10:00 AM)

    New York’s political establishment put today’s primary for state contests on a Thursday, so as not to conflict with Sept. 11 remembrances or Rosh Hashana; the vote should’ve happened months ago, and been combined with Congressional primaries.

    Why’d they split them up, costing millions of dollars…

  • [NYDN] N.Y. vs. the electorate: How state voting laws suppress participation
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    How does New York State make it difficult to vote? Let us count the ways.

    Both parties refused to consolidate federal and state primaries, driving down turnout. It’s a trick they’ve pulled before and surely will try again.

    New York has one of the strictest party registration timetables, mandating…

  • [NYDN] Schools Chancellor Carranza takes yellow bus no-show personally
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    As the city’s yellow school bus delays and no-shows dragged on Wednesday, parents complained of difficulty reaching school officials or bus company staffers who could help.

    Hold times on the city’s school bus help line stretched beyond 22 minutes, and some desperate parents reached out to Education…

  • [NYDN] Surrogate justice: The machine beats the voters in Brooklyn
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    Surrogate judges oversee the estates of the dead and can offer rich rewards to connected lawyers. So when one of the 14-year judgeships is vacant, competition is fierce.

    So fierce that the Brooklyn Democratic machine lost the last two surrogate primaries to insurgents.

    Not this year. Boss Frank…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on Primary Day
    (Thursday, September 13, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    No to Cuomo

    Manhattan: Quid Pro Cuomo moved the freakin’ primary to a Thursday, and y’all believe that it was to honor Tuesday, Sept. 11? None of you think this was an illegal move by a crooked incumbent to lower voter turnout (cuz he expects to lose to Cynthia Nixon the TV star)? It’s 2018, and…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Peter Alonso still ‘disappointed’ Mets never called him up, but management made the right call on young slugger
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 10:00:00 PM)

    Peter Alonso got to Citi Field this week, but it wasn’t the September arrival he and Mets fans were hoping for.

    Instead of getting big league at-bats and experience, exciting a fan base that had long ago given up on this season, the Mets’ top hitting prospect was sitting in the press room during…

  • [NYDN] Mets offense goes off in rout of Marlins following miserable rain delay
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 10:00:00 PM)

    If only the Mets bats woke up like this once in a while for Jacob deGrom, there would be no NL Cy Young debate.

    The Mets exploded for more runs than they’ve scored for their ace in his last five outings to coast to a 13-0 rout of Miami following a near six-hour rain delay.

    The teams were set to…

  • [NYDN] Bronx man charged in drug rival’s killing, even though victim refused to ID him with dying breaths: police
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:55:00 PM)

    A Bronx gunman whose victim refused to identify him with his dying breaths wound up in cuffs anyway, after witnesses helped police identify him, cop sources said.

    Justin Smith, 28, was busted Wednesday on charges he killed 42-year-old Edwin Cabrera on Aug. 3.

    Police sources described the killing…

  • [NYDN] Another gang member sought in brutal slaying of Bronx teen Lesandro Guzman-Feliz
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:40:00 PM)

    Cops are looking to question yet another Trinitarios gang member in connection with this summer’s brutal machete slaying of Bronx teenager Lesandro (Junior) Guzman-Feliz.

    Police have charged 13 alleged members of the violent street gang with the teen’s June 20 slaying, and on Wednesday, they released…

  • [NYDN] Humboldt Broncos return to ice 5 months after bus crash
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:30:00 PM)

    HUMBOLDT, Saskatchewan — Brayden Camrud and Derek Patter were back on the ice for the Humboldt Broncos on Wednesday night in the team’s first game since 10 teammates and six other people were killed in a bus crash.

    Camrud and Patter are the only survivors back with the junior hockey team. In a…

  • [NYDN] California gunman kills five, including wife, then shoots himself as police arrive
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:10:00 PM)

    BAKERSFIELD, Calif. — Authorities say a gunman in California has killed five people, including his wife, before turning the gun on himself as a sheriff’s deputy closed in.

    Kern County Sheriff Donny Youngblood says the shootings began shortly before 5:30 p.m. Wednesday and occurred at a business…

  • [NYDN] Yankees nearly no-hit in loss to Twins as wild card lead continues to dwindle
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:05:00 PM)

    Aaron Judge, the Yankees need you.

    The Bronx Bombers were nearly no-hit by the less-than-mediocre Jake Odorizzi Wednesday night, as the Yanks saw their lead atop the wild card dwindle to just one game with a 3-1 loss to the Twins.

    Odorizzi, whose stat line improved to a 6-10 record and 4.41 ERA,…

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — September 13, 2018
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for September 13, 2018

    We may be lost in idealistic thoughts today as the borders of Fantasyland stretch farther than our eyes can see. Logical Mercury is visiting analytical Virgo where it helps us figure out nearly anything, but its current opposition to…

  • [NYDN] Bronx teacher who performed oral sex on 14-year-old gets 10 years probation, avoids jail, keeps teaching certificate
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    A Bronx high school teacher who admitted to performing oral sex on her 14-year-old student won’t face jail time — and she might even return to the classroom.

    Dori Myers, 30, last month pleaded guilty to criminal sex act for the Nov. 2016 incident at her former workplace, New School for Leadership…

  • [NYDN] 24 men in Phoenix area arrested in child sex crime operation
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 8:55:00 PM)

    MESA, Ariz. — Authorities say a multi-agency operation to crack down on child sex crimes has resulted in the arrest of 24 men in the Phoenix metro area.

    Mesa police say they partnered with the Tempe, Gilbert and Chandler police departments and the Arizona Attorney General’s Office as part of the…

  • [NYDN] Pope Francis to meet U.S. bishops Thursday over abuse scandal
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    VATICAN CITY — With the Catholic Church in crisis once again over clerical sex abuse and cover-up, Pope Francis will meet Thursday with U.S. cardinals and bishops who are demanding to know how one of their own was able to climb the clerical ranks despite allegations that he slept with seminarians.

  • [NYDN] Ex-convict pleads guilty to killing college student from China, gets life in prison
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 8:35:00 PM)

    SALT LAKE CITY — An ex-convict pleaded guilty Wednesday to killing a University of Utah student from China using a gun stolen after another slaying.

    Austin Boutain, 24, was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole in the plea agreement that allowed him to avoid the death penalty….

  • [NYDN] WNBA Finals: Seattle Storm sweeps Washington Mystics to claim championship, Twitter reacts
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 7:50:00 PM)

    FAIRFAX, Va. — Breanna Stewart led the Seattle Storm to their third WNBA title Wednesday night, scoring 30 points in a 98-82 victory over the Washington Mystics in Game 3 of the best-of-five series.

    Stewart was the league MVP and was selected the Finals MVP after averaging 25.6 points in the three…

  • [NYDN] OUCH! Red Sox fan takes Devon Travis bat to the head
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 7:25:00 PM)

    A man sitting in the box seats at Wednesday night’s Red Sox game was hit on the forehead by a bat that slipped out of Devon Travis’ hands in the eighth inning.

    The bat cleared the netting along the baseline and landed about 15 rows up in the box seats, about midway between third base and home plate….

  • [NYDN] Mets to make major announcement on David Wright as source says team captain still hopes to return
    (Wednesday, September 12, 2018 6:47:00 PM)

    The Mets and David Wright are expecting to announce Thursday their plans for the team captain’s attempted comeback.

    The Mets’ third baseman has not played in a major league game since May 2016, but has said he is ready to play in a game before the end of the season.

    According to sources, Wright…

  • 41 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2018.09.13)

    1. alsep73

      It’s midway through September and Noah is still on the team. Is this just that they’re just taking a long time to negotiate the terms of his buyout? Or is it a sign that Perry sees what we do: that there’s minimal value at best to stretching Noah until we know for sure we will need that cap space?

    2. mase

      When we extended Mitch we began the Noah negotiations. “Mitch is gonna get your minutes, ever want to play again? Accept our offer!!”

    3. thenoblefacehumper

      It’s midway through September and Noah is still on the team. Is this just that they’re just taking a long time to negotiate the terms of his buyout? Or is it a sign that Perry sees what we do: that there’s minimal value at best to stretching Noah until we know for sure we will need that cap space?

      I guess either option is good, right? They both would mean we aren’t just stretching him before we know we’ll need the space and paying the full price. Hopefully we’re either trying to save so money or just not dealing with this situation until it’s necessary (or both).

    4. Bruno Almeida

      Well, it is nice to have stability for once. I’m pretty happy if they just stay stable and don’t make stupid moves. They were probably looking for Noah to do something similar to what Deng did and give some money back, but I would guess he refused.

    5. Hubert

      @1 I’m not optimistic the Knicks found religion on this. If I had to guess, the delay is because he’s refusing to take one dollar less on his buyout, and the Knicks are trying to wait him out. I think we just postponed the buyout until the start of training camp or the regular season.

    6. geo

      saw that our first pre-season game is October 1st…i love this time of year…still a sliver of an excuse for being irrationally optimistic…

      hopefully we’ll have a full healthy season from ron baker, which should make a huge difference in our win/loss record…

      i’m sure noah is due for an unexpected resurgence of his career, and, will return to his dpoy form…

      kp looks really good in those off-season photos…maybe he’ll be ready for play by the christmas game…back to his old fall form…probably even better and stronger than before…

      heard kanter’s been practicing a bunch of threes – it’ll be a little weird to not see him continually camped underneath the basket (and clogging the lane – not, that many of our players are looking to get to the rim anyway)…i’m sure with his new 3 point prowess he’ll really help stretch the defense…

      also heard our man frank been hanging around the and1 mixtape tour working on his handle – can’t wait to see that…

      i think you can pretty much call the rookie of the year question answered…we got him on our team…

      and, thank goodness we have that athletic freak and basketball savant lance thomas leading this exceptional squad out on the court each night…

      50 wins in the bag…

      Edit: ooops, meant to say – 25 wins, in the bag…

    7. Grocer

      I’m pretty sure the players vote on captains and both Lance and Lee are co-captains. I wouldn’t read too much into it beyond “they’ve been around longer.”

    8. GianaDani

      Ok…so let’s see: according to ESPN Hollinger rankings based on their advanced statistics.

      Kanter is a top 5 center in the EC.
      KP is a top 3 PF in the EC
      THjr is a top 10 SF in the EC
      Frank is a top 5 defender at 2 and a perfect fit between Trey & Timmy.
      Burke is a top 5 PG in EC.

      Bench is both deep, hungry & talented although a little green.

      Forecasted by same company, how do those pieces add up to 29 wins?

    9. Bruno Almeida

      Ok, so who died between Irving, Wall, Simmons, Lowry or Dragic? Kemba Walker, Darren Collison, Eric Bledsoe also exist still I guess.

      Embiid, Horford and Drummond are also still alive as far as I know…

      I mean…

      Can’t we just bury PER as a collective and agree never to use it again?

    10. GianaDani

      Burke was unbelievably efficient last year; outplayed both Dragic & Kemba but thats not important. Sure, we can bury PER but why exactly? Also, what do we replace it with?

    11. Bruno Almeida

      That’s not important because Burke did it in 30 something games for a team that lost a vast majority of their games.

      There’s RAPM, BPM, VORP, even WS48, all stats who have far more interesting ideas and are far more useful and less obviously flawed than PER.

    12. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Sure, we can bury PER but why exactly? Also, what do we replace it with?

      https://alexpetralia.com/datablog/2015/6/11/nba-how-do-per-and-win-percentage-correlate

      Offense:

      The relationship is significant and, here, PER explains about 79% of the variation in a team’s offensive efficiency.

      Defense:

      This time, the relationship is insignificant with a p-value of .806 and PER explaining only .2% of the variation in defensive efficiency. In other words, the model is extremely poor and PER says nothing about how a team performs defensively.

    13. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Do you think we could pick up Jabari Bird for cheap? I mean, I know these “allegations” are pretty “terrible,” but don’t you think that it’s possible that [misogynistic excuse for violence against women] or that [attack on abusee’s credibility because she dated a rich guy or likes money at all] or [asserting that a person is not guilty of having committed a crime because he hasn’t yet been convicted]?

      https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/9fjbrq/its_a_domestic_assault_and_battery_case_bird/e5x7w7c/

      Look at these comments and then weep for the world we inherited and allow to continue.

    14. Z-man

      PER’s flaws are more obvious, but no more egregious than the flaws in the other metrics widely used here over the years, including the ones you cited. It is actually better-aligned with BPM/VORP than Berri’s WP, which was the “gold standard” for some around here.

      Tyson Chandler and Allen Iverson are two great examples. Both PER and BPM-based stats conclude that Iverson was consistently a more productive and valuable player than Chandler in their respective primes. Yet Iverson was a punching bag around here for the Berri acolytes, some of whom have now moved on to BPM. Yet you will likely never hear the usual suspects say “hey, maybe I did overrate Chandler and underrate Iverson!” Just like you will likely never hear any of those same people say that PER has its uses as much as any of the others.

    15. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      2001-02

      Iverson TS% .489

      Denver Nuggets TS% .495 (29th of 29 teams)

      Iverson PER 21.9 11th of 185 qualified players

      Yeeeeeeaaaaaah, okaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy………………

    16. GianaDani

      Thanks Jowles and Zman; This girl is learning a thing or two about math (statistics) and I have to admit that I kind of like it.

      Do I have this straight? In a nut shell, PER is pretty good offensively but is lacking big time defensively? I guess, this explains why Kanter and Timmy are ranked in in top 10 and both Burke and KP are ranked 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

      Bruno (btw, love that name): We can agree to disagree about whether 43% of one season is a valid sample size and/or the net valid discount effective rate for team losing most of the games played.

      With respect to other things like WORP, BPM or whatever you prefer and based ONLY on their production in 2017-18, where does our starting line up rank with respect to other players in the Eastern Conference?

      Kanter
      KP
      Timmy
      Frank
      Burke

    17. Nick C.

      @18 I don’t see the story on my Yahoo anymore. I did see “what does Tiger woods’ ex- look like now”. sigh

      I got through a few comments speculating(?) that he had a medical condition causing him to have blackouts in which he has fits of rage ????

    18. JK47

      If you shoot a lot, you’ll have a high PER, even if you shoot and miss a lot. PER absolutely loved Carmelo Anthony.

    19. dtrickey

      Look at these comments and then weep for the world we inherited and allow to continue.

      Well we have cartoonists here in Australia drawing 1920’s Sambo caricatures of Serena Williams and politicians attacking a 9 year old girl for protesting the national anthem out of respect for indigenous Australian’s, so the comments on a reddit thread really don’t surprise me at all.

    20. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      In terms of murders and civilian deaths, the data is quite convincing, and I believe it. In terms of deaths from wars, I am not at all as optimistic as the presentation authors. Over the past two centuries there’s not much of a change in the war casualty rate except for the last half of the twentieth century (after world war two). that’s not really a statistically impressive length of time. And maybe Democracy did surge up til 2015, but now it seems to be retreating in some places (like Hungary); and global warming is going to put a lot if stress on-the job world that could lead to a lot of conflict.

    21. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      Worth a read.

      PER has been said to reward inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:

      “Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.”

      Hollinger responded, via a post on ESPN’s TrueHoop blog:

      “Berri leads off with a huge misunderstanding of PER—that the credits and debits it gives for making and missing shots equate to a “break-even” shooting mark of 30.4% on 2-point shots. He made this assumption because he forgot that PER is calibrated against the rest of the league at the end of the formula.

      Actually, if we took a player that was completely average in every other respect for the 2006–07 season—rebounds, free throws, assists, turnovers, etc.—and gave him a league-average rate of shots, and all of them were 2-pointers, and he shot 30.4%, he’d end up with a PER of 7.18. As long-time PER fans know, that would make him considerably worse than nearly every player in the league.

      To end up with a league-average PER of 15.00, the actual break-even mark in this case is 48.5%, which is exactly what the league average is on 2-point shots this season”.

    22. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      PER is a boxscore model. It suffers from the same problems as all the others. It can’t account for the impact of a players’s role, teammates, system, coaching, and the defense he faced. It also doesn’t make much of an effort to measure defense. However, I think it’s pretty good if you just want a quick summary about the player’s productivity on offense if you aren’t familiar with the details of his game.

    23. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      I agree about PER. I think it also correlates pretty well with a players perceived trade value (which can be different from his actual productivity on the court). That is, if a player has a high PER, GMs are willing to give up more to get him. I think this is much more true for PER than for, say BPM or RPM.

    24. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      Consider Cousins, for example. He has a high PER and New Orleans was willing to give Hield and a first round pick to get him. But because of his defense, he might not have the bargain a lot of commentators said New Orleans was getting.

    25. Z-man

      @20 and @23

      During Melo’s time with Denver, his PER never went above 22.2, which is high, but he was never in the top-10 in the league during that time. He only cracked the top-10 twice (2o12-13 and 2013-14, the same 2 years that his WS48, OBPM and VORP peaked, as did hid USG%, but not his TS%….go figure!) even though he was in the top-10 in usage ten times. He never approached LeBron’s or Durant’s average PER. So PER “liked” Melo, but didn’t “absolutely love” him.

      I’m not arguing that PER isn’t flawed. It is. I’m arguing that WP, WS, BPM and VORP are equally flawed, and that if you want to “bury” PER for its flaws, you might as well bury the whole lot of them. For example, Melo had a higher OBPM than Chandler in 2011-2012, even though Chandler’s TS% was .708 and Melo’s was .525. So OBPM “confirms” that Melo was significantly more valuable than Chandler on the offensive end in that year, which was disputed by Jowles and others at the time.

    26. Owen

      #27 I got to say, i am actually a little surprised by that post. I think I was as deep into the thickets with Wins Produced and PER as anybody back then, and I never read that defense by Hollinger.

    27. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      That defense by Hollinger still doesn’t explain why a player as dogshit at Iverson in 2001-02 (at everything but USG% and STL%) could be 11th in the league in PER. So either PER is giving him primary credit for the #4 defense in the league, which would be a laughable argument, or it overvalues volume scorers at virtually any efficiency.

      Iverson should not have been ranked #11 in PER if he was making shots less often than the worst offensive team and doing virtually nothing else of value in the box score. And I’m a guy who thinks that steal rate can be attributed to individual talent.

    28. Z-man

      @33 but this is a pretty weak attack on PER. Just because there is are outliers that are grossly overvalued relative to “common sense” doesn’t mean that the stat is fatally flawed.

      In 2015-16, WS48 rated Enes Kanter 11th in the league, despite his obscenely bad defense. Your long-revered WP rates Enes Kanter as a top-10 player in the league that year, better than Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and LeBron James. And all of those guys were ranked below the immortal Cole Aldrich! Funny though, PER and WS48 also rank Kanter as a superstar. But not BPM or VORP, which rated him somewhat above average on offense (1.7) but absolutely catastrophic on defense (-3.1!) and slightly better than a replacement-level player overall (VORP=0.1). Which stat most correctly captures Kanter’s value?

      Heaven forbid that back in the day, anyone came out you with a lame-ass argument about WP like the one you made above.

    29. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      The cold, hard fact is that Iverson used more scoring attempts than any player in the league to create points, and he was worse than the worst shooting team in the league at turning those shot attempts into points. Incredibly, he was #2 in shots missed while playing only 60 games. He was also #2 in FGA.

      Of the 32 players who played 1500 minutes on >25 USG%, Iverson ranked only ahead of Jason Williams (.466), Jordan (.468) and MVP-candidate Marcus Fizer (.482) in TS%. Yet again, he was #2 in the league in FGA and FGM, just 20 FGA behind Antoine Walker, who played in 81 games.

      This isn’t a speculative argument about how a hyper-efficient scorer (say, Tyson Chandler) inherently makes it harder for his teammates to score. No evidence has ever been given for that claim. But there’s lots of evidence that chuckers are not productive basketball players.

      Either PER builds in a “volume scoring is inherently good” facet or the stat is FUBAR.

    30. Bruno Almeida

      I really feel the arguments are becoming personal or out of spite when PER merits a defense like this.

      I’ve said it in a jokingly manner because I thought we had buried the idea of PER being any relevant years ago when it became clear it was mostly just reinforcing common sense and overvaluing volume shooting sans efficiency.

    31. Donnie Walsh

      THjr is a top 10 SF in the EC

      I mean, there’s only 15 teams in the EC. And they’re not very good. So “top 10 sf in the EC” isn’t really saying much. (You can just as easily say bottom 10 SF in the NBA).

    32. Brian Cronin

      I agree about PER. I think it also correlates pretty well with a players perceived trade value (which can be different from his actual productivity on the court). That is, if a player has a high PER, GMs are willing to give up more to get him. I think this is much more true for PER than for, say BPM or RPM.

      That seems fair to me. NBA GMs, in general, are about where the stat community was roughly 15 years ago. While I mean that as an insult of NBA GMs, I also do mean it as a slight compliment of PER, as PER is a lot better than traditional box score stats. It’s like, say, OPS. MLB GMs eventually became comfortable with OPS. Similarly, NBA GMs are now comfortable with the basics of PER, so that does put them ahead of where they were before the days of PER.

    33. Z-man

      Bruno, you can stick your personal attacks up your ass.

      Jowles, you still refuse to answer for the contradiction between WP and BPM. I’ll say once again that PER is better aligned with BPM-based stats than WP. For a decade you used WP as your personal gold standard,and now you use BPM as a gold standard. Why do you keep dodging this issue?

    34. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      #27 I got to say, i am actually a little surprised by that post. I think I was as deep into the thickets with Wins Produced and PER as anybody back then, and I never read that defense by Hollinger.

      I stumbled onto that quote when I was trying to mimic PER with a more basic formula.

      Most of these models have what I would call a break even point on shooting efficiency. Berri was wrong about PER’s break even point, but he was generally correct that scoring and usage gets more value in PER than in Wins Produced.

      I believe using a fixed break even point for measuring how much a player is contributing to the offense is a flaw. I believe if you want to measure a players value to the offense you have to use a more variable analysis that combines efficiency, usage, role, system, teammates, coaching, the defense the player faces, shot selection etc.. Unfortunately, that’s a complex mess that doesn’t translate into numbers very easily. So it gets very subjective and is also prone to error.

      I might say I think Porzingis is a better scorer than his TS% indicates and list a bunch of reasons why I think that’s so. There will be resistance to that view because I can’t convert it into a provable number and people are searching for easy answers that don’t seem to exist (at least yet). But I still feel strongly that the factors that impact efficiency (aside from his talents) have been stacked against KP (especially last year). So with some tweaks, better coaching, and better decision making (which is on him), he can become a valuable high usage scorer quite easily. If he also actually improves his skills, he can become VERY valuable.

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