Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, November 16, 2018

Knicks Morning News (2018.09.08)

  • [NYDN] Larry Nassar, Jameis Winston and the Trump administration’s proposed changes to campus sexual misconduct policies
    (Saturday, September 08, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    College students face numerous adjustments as they return to campus for the fall semester.

    But if the Trump administration has its way, students nationwide will face an overhaul of sexual harassment and assault policies on campuses.

    A draft version of the proposed rules recently revealed by the…

  • [NYDN] Waiting and waiting on the platform: Why we need congestion pricing now
    (Saturday, September 08, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    My phone told me I’d be there in 30 minutes; I arrived in 50.

    It was my first day on the job. I had just received an internship as a reporter for the Norwood News, a local Bronx newspaper.

    At 9:30 a.m., the Bx12-Select Bus Service was nowhere in sight. Not wanting to leave my fate to the bus, I…

  • [NYDN] Why tennis matters to me: The game taught me self-confidence and self-control
    (Saturday, September 08, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    I can relate to the performance anxiety Serena Williams says she felt when she returned to the U.S. Open this year. But I can also relate to the self-confidence and courage Serena has developed throughout her career to overcome that anxiety and to continue to win match after match. That’s because…

  • [NYDN] State Senate picks: Bronx, Queens and Manhattan
    (Saturday, September 08, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    Given the corrupt and dysfunctional Legislature that burdens New Yorkers, the instinct to throw the bums out in Albany is welcome.

    So it is a good thing that a number of incumbent Democratic state senators have real contests in Thursday’s primary. Without such challenges, they coast to reelection.

  • [NYDN] Trump’s economy: Can’t deny a good jobs report
    (Saturday, September 08, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    Numbers do not lie. The economy remains what it was for the bulk of the last administration: a pretty effective employment-producing machine.

    Gains of 201,000 jobs in August equaled about the average over the 75-month post-recession job-creation streak under President Obama. President Trump gets…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on unlicensed driving, garbage pickup and the national anthem
    (Saturday, September 08, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Abhor reckless driving, license or no

    Staten Island: Re “Drivers licenses for all, now” (Op-Ed, Sept. 7): The first three paragraphs say it all. Carlos Cardona Fuentes was pulled over for speeding while passing a school and has no driver’s license. He was placed in custody, as most drivers who…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Didi Gregorius, heartbeat of the Yankees, is activated off the disabled list, but Aaron Boone will ease him back into everyday role
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 11:05:00 PM)

    SEATTLE — Didi Gregorius was back Friday night. As expected, the Yankees’ shortstop was activated off the disabled list before the series opener against the Mariners at Safeco. But the shortstop was not in the lineup against the lefthander James Paxton.

    “We’ll kind of ease Didi back in…you know,…

  • [NYDN] Masahiro Tanaka looks like the right choice for wild card game after gem vs. Mariners, but Aaron Boone will give it time
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 10:55:00 PM)

    SEATTLE — It’s wide open now. Despite having said after Wednesday night’s disastrous start that he had no doubts that he could start Luis Severino — and Gary Sanchez — in a potential winner-take-all wild card game, Aaron Boone admitted he is not going to just give that start to his ace.

    The final…

  • [NYDN] Rafael Nadal retires from semifinal match with knee pain after enduring a grueling U.S. Open path
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 10:30:00 PM)

    It’s very difficult to defeat the same world-class player in three straight major tournaments on three different surfaces.

    Just ask World No. 1 Rafael Nadal. His body wouldn’t let him do it Friday.

    Nadal, the U.S. Open’s top seed and defending champion, retired from his semifinal match against…

  • [NYDN] Cops arrest Washington Heights Bridge rape suspect
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 10:20:00 PM)

    Cops have busted the Washington Heights Bridge rape suspect, authorities said.

    Pedro Rodriguez, 21, of the Bronx, was picked up Friday at his place of employment after one a victim identified him from a photo, police sources said.

    Rodriguez, of High Bridge, allegedly raped a 20-year-old woman on…

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — September 8, 2018
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for September 8, 2018

    We continue to vacillate between rational and irrational perspectives as we land back on Earth. The Moon’s shift into fastidious Virgo at 10:29 am EDT reminds us to focus on the most useful strategies. Luna’s Grand Earth Trine with outrageous…

  • [NYDN] Cops bust attempted alleyway rape suspect in Brooklyn
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    Cops have busted a suspect in the attempted rape of a woman dragged into an alley in Brooklyn before a good Samaritan fought off the fiend, sources said.

    The 27-year-old woman was walking near 90th St. and 5th Ave. in Bay Ridge at 1:40 a.m. on Aug 25 when the sicko pounced. He dragged her into…

  • [NYDN] Man’s body found floating in New York Harbor off Battery Park
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 6:55:00 PM)

    Cops recovered the body of a man found floating in New York Harbor near Battery Park on Friday, officials said.

    The unidentified Hispanic male, believed to be in his 50s, was recovered floating near Battery Park Plaza just north of Staten Island Ferry about 9 p.m.

    An FDNY Marine Unit boat responded…

  • [NYDN] Secret Service agent tried to save fatal shooting victim in Brooklyn
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 6:40:00 PM)

    An off-duty Secret Service agent tried in vain to save the life of a shooting victim in Brooklyn last night, authorities said.

    Heated words led to homicide when a gunman opened fire, killing a 20-something male in Bay Ridge just before 6 p.m., cops and witnesses said.

    “One, two, three, four shots,”…

  • [NYDN] Pols ask Mayor to speed cooling of schools as opening week heatwave makes classrooms unbearable
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 6:10:00 PM)

    Cool it down.

    That’s the message City Council members had for Mayor de Blasio and Chancellor Richard Carranza as public school students roasted in the sweltering temperatures during the first week of school that started Wednesday.

    Councilman Mark Tregyer (D-Brooklyn), who chairs the Education Committee,…

  • [NYDN] This boy’s school bus didn’t come for two days; when it did, the ride lasted 4 hours and his ordeal was one of thousands during schools’ opening days
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 5:05:00 PM)

    Hundreds — if not thousands — of public school families in Queens and around the city were left stranded and exasperated over the first days of school due a “terrible” series of school bus snafus, the Daily News has learned.

    Families from Sunnyside, Queens, to the Rockaways and beyond experienced…

  • [NYDN] Government photographer cropped photos of Trump’s inauguration to make crowd look bigger, records reveal
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 4:40:00 PM)

    President Trump’s inauguration is coming back to haunt him.

    A government photographer cropped photos of the pompous event in order to make the crowd look bigger after Trump complained to the National Park Service, according to federal records released Friday.

    The unnamed photographer cropped the…

  • [NYDN] City sends in investigators to test for elevated chemicals at Brooklyn public housing development
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 4:00:00 PM)

    The city dispatched investigators to a Brooklyn public housing development Friday after the Daily News revealed several apartments there recently registered high levels of chemicals in their indoor air.

    In the last three months, an environmental consultant working for NYCHA found consistent levels…

  • [NYDN] Bondy: Serena Williams is undoubtedly the greatest female tennis player of all time, but she hasn’t had a real rival in the last decade
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 3:30:00 PM)

    No matter what happens in the U.S. Open final, Serena Williams is the greatest female tennis player of all-time. Undisputed. The fact that she got this far in the tournament as a 36-year-old mother just reinforces that she’s better than whomever else you’re considering.

    But regarding her legacy,…

  • [NYDN] Fortnite gamer sentenced to 18 months in federal drug-smuggling case
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 3:05:00 PM)

    A Fortnite fanatic was sentenced Friday to 18 months in jail for smuggling cocaine in an operation she said she joined to help her family in Puerto Rico survive Hurricane Maria’s aftermath.

    Prosecutors said they didn’t believe Nicole Lorenzo Cortez’s sob story of turning to a life of crime to help…

  • [NYDN] Bronx man, convicted in fatal 2014 livery carjackings, to spend rest of life behind bars
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 2:55:00 PM)

    A Bronx man will spend the rest of his life in prison for killing two livery car drivers in separate shootings in 2014.

    Tyrone (Man Man) Felder, 29, was found guilty Friday and faces a mandatory minimum sentence of at least 100 years in prison for the shooting deaths of of Maodo Kane and Aboubacar…

  • [NYDN] Mother and son in critical condition after South Africa giraffe attack
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 2:35:00 PM)

    A mother and her 3-year-old son who survived an attack by a female giraffe just after she gave birth to a calf remain hospitalized in South Africa, where the incident took place.

    Three-year-old Finn Williams is in critical condition and has reportedly suffered from “traumatic brain injury.”

    Both…

  • [NYDN] Giant says if Big Blue can run the ball on Sunday vs. Jaguars… ‘it’s over with’
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 1:55:00 PM)

    If the Giants are able to run the ball on Jacksonville’s stout defense Sunday, in the words of one Giants player Friday, “it’s over with.”

    If the offensive line cannot win its battle with the Jaguars’ formidable front, however, it will be a long day for Saquon Barkley and Big Blue’s offense in…

  • [NYDN] Rapper Mac Miller dead at 26 of suspected drug overdose
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 1:50:00 PM)

    Mac Miller, the platinum-selling Hip Hop star known for his early party raps, self-reflective later songs and two-year romance with Ariana Grande, died Friday at his home in Los Angeles. He was 26.

    The Los Angeles County Coroner said Miller was found unresponsive in his home and pronounced dead…

  • [NYDN] The John Lennon stamp and our selective outrage
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 1:50:00 PM)

    We sometimes talk about “selective hearing” — when someone thinks their doubtlessly brilliant points are blowing past their opponent’s ears. But what about selective thinking? What about, in today’s age, selective social pariah-hunting?

    John Lennon now has his very own U.S. postage stamp. I write…

  • [ESPN] Welcome to Springfield: The candidates we’d put in the Hall
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 12:07:53 PM)

    The Basketball Hall of Fame is already one of sports’ most inclusive, but there are plenty of worthy candidates like Stephon Marbury who’ve been left waiting.

  • [SNY Knicks] Relive Jason Kidd’s best assists ahead of his Hall of Fame induction
    (Friday, September 07, 2018 7:21:46 PM)

    On Friday night, former Knicks PG Jason Kidd will be inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. And the hall will be getting one of their best floor generals of all time enshrined forever.

  • 21 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2018.09.08)

    1. thenoblefacehumper

      In baseball they have stats like ERA+, OBP+, etc. that are used to compare an individual player’s season to the average for that season (it also controls for park factors which I doubt would be needed in the NBA). It’d be nice to have the same thing for the NBA.

      Co-signed. I’m a little surprised we don’t have these yet. I guess the analytics movement in basketball is still relatively new, but we also have concepts a lot more advanced than something as simple as TS%+ or whatever.

      On a different note, there’s been some talk about possibly flipping Trey Burke for a first or signing him to a long-term deal. For the millionth time in my history as a Knicks fan I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see it. He was definitely a net positive down the stretch last year, but it took some seriously anomalous shooting numbers just to get him to that point. I mean seriously look at this”

      FG% by distance
      0-3 career: .537
      0-3 2017-2018: .726, about where LeBron James is for his career

      3-10 career: .350
      3-10 2017-2018: .410

      10-16 career: .423
      10-16 2017-2018: .462

      16<3 career: .423
      16<3 2017-2018: .566, Dirk Nowitzki is at .475 for his career

      3PT career: .339
      3PT 2017-2018: .362

      There are definitely some caveats–his 3-10 and 10-16 numbers have been trending up for a few seasons now–but overall it's not hard to see what's happening here. With all of this anomalous shooting he could still only manage a 56% TS. If that falls to 52-53% all of the sudden you're looking at a near-useless player.

    2. GoNyGoNyGo

      Attacking the rim (0-3) and the 3pt shot is all that matters in terms of his development. If he maintains or exceeds 2017-18 in the first half of the season, it indicates that he’s made the leap offensively. While his TS% is an important factor, his defense is what I fear the most. Can he handle larger PGs?

      If he could be flipped for a 1st round pick, I would go for it, but I don’t think he can get flipped for a 2nd round pick.

    3. Z-man

      tnfh, and for the millionth time I need to explain that Burke’s overall TS% was not anomalous for the player he is right now. His TS% in the G-League was .592, where he shot 42% on 3’s on 165 attempts and 52% on 2’s on 361 attempts. He also shot 83% from the line, which is near his career average, while only shooting 65% after being called up. It’s easy to dismiss G-League stats, but in Burke’s case, I think they are relevant because his shots in the NBA are essentially the same shots he took in the G-League. He can get his own shot any time he wants and it’s just a matter of whether he makes them or misses them. The key for him is to keep upping his FTr and 3PTr and to maintain decent %s from there (say, 80% and 38%, both attainable. I am fairly confident that his 56% TS is for real regardless of whether his 2PT% drops into the high 40’s (very likely), given the nature of his scoring and the progress he’s made in the areas I’ve mentioned.

    4. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      And if he regresses? Who do we blame for that? Fizdale? Ntilikina? Tyson Chandler?

    5. Owen

      Probably because Burke, whether you believe in him or not, is one of the few good things to happen to the Knicks lately and one of the current administrations few unqualified successes.

    6. mase

      I’m hoping we can add frank, Knox and Mitchell to that list… collectively with Burke breaking out as a unit, we could be hovering around .500 when/if KP returns.
      Possible first round exit or no playoffs but either way so long Zion. Bittersweet life as a Knick fan.

    7. thenoblefacehumper

      Probably because Burke, whether you believe in him or not, is one of the few good things to happen to the Knicks lately and one of the current administrations few unqualified successes.

      I agree with this and I’m happy we have him! We can’t really hurt ourselves with his situation as long as we don’t do anything stupid, so I’m sure we’ll hurt ourselves with his situation.

      Z-Man, it’s interesting that you bring up his G-League numbers because they support the idea that some regression is likely coming. His NBA 2PT% was over 3% higher than his G-League 2PT%. They don’t keep track of shooting data by distance down there, but I feel pretty good about saying that he probably wasn’t shooting like LeBron James the rim and Dirk Nowitzki from 10-16. He juiced his TS% with a free throw rate he’s never been able to replicate in the NBA for the most part. I am happy to concede that he will be a great player for us if he shoots 40% from 3 and has a .247 FTr like he did in the G-League. I would certainly not bet on it.

      Like I said, I’m happy to have him. He definitely deserved the call and basically carried the entire watchability of the post-Porzingis Knicks on his back last season. My only point is I don’t think we’re getting a first round pick for him, and I don’t think he’ll play at a level that would make an extension a wise move.

    8. Ingmarrrr

      A guy putting up good numbers on an awful team that loses almost every game towards the end of the season is not an indication of future success.

      A guy putting up good numbers in the g-league is not an indication of his future success.

      Put two non-indicators together and what do you get? Zero. Zero indication Burke is any good.

      He may be. Most likely he’s not.

    9. ptmilo

      tnfh, and for the millionth time I need to explain that Burke’s overall TS% was not anomalous for the player he is right now.

      I think it probably was anomalous and you are likely to be wrong about this. G league TS% for a 25 year old generally merits a huge downward adjustment to the NBA. You put 23-27 year guards with NBA experience in the G League, you generally see a big TS% boost, and often guys like RJ Hunter come off looking terrific. His percentages from two point range are almost guaranteed to come down, and his expected improvement at the FT line would be only a small offset unless his FT rate picks up substantially from his career history. His TS last year was 56.3%. You seem to be setting the over under at 56.3% by saying (for the millionth time) it wasn’t anomalous. If I was making the book I would set it at 52.5%, which might still make him a fringe NBA player if he keeps his A/TO strong, but at a very different level. I’m basically assuming he shows slight improvement from his career levels in % at the rim and from 0-23 feet (which still makes him an elite 10-23 foot shooter), and maintains his 36% 3PT percentage while shooting over 80% from the line at the same FTR as his stub Knick season. I hope I’m wrong. His best chance at beating the odds in my view is to shoot way, way more 3s and fewer long and mid 2s. That’s not impossible.

    10. JK47

      I think that Burke’s TS% will dip and that he’ll still be a useful player. Not the .150 WS48 type player he was with the Knicks last year, but more of a .100 type player. Which is still pretty good, considering the utter horseshit we usually run out there at the PG position.

      His low turnover rates and solid assist numbers seem sustainable to me.

    11. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      I don’t get this Burke conversation at all.

      I think his G league data obviously matters, but you have to discount it a bit because of the level of competition. To me, when you adjust that G league data a little, combine it with his NBA data from last year, and use some intuition (he’s coming into his peak years and he’s more mature), the most likely outcome is that he’s a better player now than he was in his first few years and will make a very good backup.

      That’s exactly what I am hoping for.

      I hope he continues to show enough to be considered a solid backup PG and we can get him at an attractive enough price to sign him long term.

    12. Bruno Almeida

      I feel that as Knicks fans were so used by now to the idea that the Knicks won’t ever find real talent in cheap players, G-League, 2nd rounders or whatever, that it’s just the new thing going around for people to talk about.

      We’re mostly talking about Burke because we exhausted pretty much every other topic of conversation and there’s still like 20 days before pre-season starts.

      I will admit I’m a bit hyped for preseason this year, I look forward to finally watching a Knicks team where I won’t be angry whichever way games go because at least 50% of the roster is young and somewhat promising. At this point last season we were discussing garbage signings like Ramon Sessions and Michael Beasley and Jarrett Jack and anxious to see if Melo would finally get traded. It’s a quality of life improvement for sure.

    13. Z-man

      @14 there’s some of that, although in Burke’s case it’s a bit different. He legitimately put up the best young Knicks PG stats since Linsanity and signed to a minimum deal so we don’t have to stress about poison pills for now.

      If anyone is suggesting that I’m cherry-picking stats to prop up Burke’s chances, that’s probably true too. Because at the end of the day, I believe in the guy because what I saw looked and felt real and sustainable. There was a swagger and comfort level in everything he did that made it feel real. I would guess that even the most dogmatic statheads among us know what I am talking about and agree on some level.

      But hey, we’ll find out soon enough who’s right.

    14. Bruno Almeida

      Yeah, but we talked about his production a million times already. We’re still talking about it because there’s literally nothing else to talk about lol.

      The biggest NBA news of the day is probably that David Nwaba signed a contract with the Cavs, or that Anthony Davis changed agents, which is leading people to believe he’s going to the Lakers eventually maybe probably one day.

    15. Ben R

      I think looking at career shooting numbers for Burke is probably a little disingenuous. It doesn’t take much film to acknowledge he is a better player than his first couple years in the league. A bit more fair would be looking at his last three years. It’s almost 3000 minutes.

      Over the last three years, Burke has an efg% of 51% and a TS% of 53%. I think that is a good baseline for his shooting. I would be surprised if he dips much below those.

      I would suspect because he is entering his prime he will climb a bit over that and if Fitzdale gets his 3ptr back to over 0.4 like his last year in Utah it could be even a bit higher than that.

      If I was putting a betting line together I would set it at over/under 54.5% TS%

      54.5% TS% is a good number for a PG and with his great assist/to rate he will probably be an average starting PG next year, and hopefully a great backup one for us for years after that.

      I think the chance of him flaming out is about the same as the chance he develops into a star. Most likely he will be a solid PG moving forward, not a starter on a great team but a definite rotation level player.

    16. Z-man

      @17 very fair, and I totally agree. Although I think he has a far better chance of being a star (in the Isaiah Thomas mold) than flaming out. He’s a good enough player to be at worst a rich man’s Ish Smith (who played fairly well for DET last year.)

    17. GoNyGoNyGo

      I repeat that I think Burke’s defense is what will hold him back. Last season, a surge in offense, as seen when looking at his offensive and defensive box plus/minus. His poor defense means that it is highly doubtful that he’ll ever be a front-line NBA starter. His ceiling appears to be a spark-plug off the bench for a good team, That being said, he could be a good backup if he can keep up his scoring with that kind of role.

      Season OBPM/DBPM (ORtg/DRtg)
      13-14: -3.0/-2.5 (101/115)
      14-15: -1.9/-1.9 (100/108)
      15-16: -2.5/-2.0 (102/108)
      16-17: -2.3/-3.4 (103/114)
      17-18: +4.3/-3.2 (117/114)

    18. GianaDani

      My prediction:

      Next Spring, when both KP & Timmy are suiting up, Burke will excel and take his game to an All-Star level, dropping 22ppg and dishing out 8 assist in 2019 calendar year. Someone gives Burke a Timmy type contract and just like ATL, we lose him for nothing. Let’s see if I’m right.

    19. Bruno Almeida

      @19

      I agree the defense looks ugly and it will probably always be, but I don’t think that’s a big issue, especially on this Knicks team. That’s why he should play together with Ntilikina, as both should help each other in their primary weaknesses. Plenty of good teams have handled bad defensive guards pairing them with good versatile defenders, and Ntilikina was already really good guarding elite guards last season.

      Isaiah Thomas has a career -2.8 DBPM and his best career mark ever is -2.0. He had a -3.3 when they won 53 games in 16-17. Obviously he was on a whole different level in terms of offensive production in that year, but if Burke can just replicate his numbers last season over a full year he’s a starter even with the terrible defense.

    Comments are closed.