Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, November 16, 2018

Knicks Morning News (2018.08.13)

  • [NYPost] Kristaps Porzingis had these words of wisdom for Nets rookie
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 7:27:07 PM)

    Dzanan Musa, known as the Bosnian Scoring Machine, received an unexpected phone call after being drafted by the Nets with the second-to-last pick of the NBA draft’s first round in June. It was from the Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis. “He encouraged me to just go for it,’’ Musa told The Post on Sunday at the NBA’s…

  • [NYPost] Why Trae Young has date with Knicks circled on his calendar
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 7:24:39 PM)

    Trae Young has always talked about liking the big stage. That is why he can’t wait for Oct. 17 when the Hawks rookie point guard makes his NBA debut in the Knicks’ season opener at the Garden. Young, the electric point guard out of Oklahoma, said he has never set foot on the court of…

  • [NYPost] Kevin Knox has noticed Vegas’ Knicks doubts
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 10:20:19 AM)

    Knicks lottery pick Kevin Knox dominated Las Vegas last month and now thinks Vegas is giving the Knicks short shrift. While Knox sees the Knicks in the playoff hunt, Vegas’ Westgate Sports Book has put the Knicks with an over-under of 29 ½ wins. “I saw that,” Knox told The Post at the NBA’s rookie…

  • [NYDN] ‘I’ll kill you!’ Rival NYC tour bus companies in cutthroat competition, suit says
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    Sightseers hoping to find the Big Apple’s dark underbelly need do no more than sign up for a double-decker bus ride.

    They’ll see aggressive confrontations between tour company ticket sellers — replete with flipped birds, colorful cursing and veiled threats of violence, says a lawsuit between two…

  • [NYDN] Indiana man accused of killing and eating ex-girlfriend found fit to stand trial
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 2:32:00 AM)

    An Indiana man who stands accused of raping and killed his estranged girlfriend — and cooking and eating parts of her body — was found competent to stand trial by a state psychiatrist.

    The update comes nearly one year after a judge ruled Joseph Oberhansley incompetent to stand trial, and placed…

  • [NYDN] For housing answers, look up: We need to build bigger to create affordable units, including at 80 Flatbush
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    At the heart of the struggle to address the affordable housing crisis in cities across the country is a resistance to building, even when that building helps address critical public needs. This resistance, buoyed by elected officials who too often heed the calls of some of their most vocal local…

  • [NYDN] White cops vs. black men? Nope: Data on police killings reveal a more complex and stubborn dynamic
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    Several years ago, I found myself questioning the validity of news accounts that suggested that white police officers were choosing to exercise lethal force when interacting with black male suspects. After locating reliable sources for police killing data, my colleagues and I began collecting and…

  • [NYDN] The verdict on Manafort: A perfect match for a President beyond the pale
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 1:10:00 AM)

    Apologists for President Trump dismiss the trial of campaign chairman Paul Manafort as busywork for Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who supposedly has nothing better to do than pester peripheral targets because his core job of unraveling Russian interference in the 2016 election is coming up snake…

  • [NYDN] Full of sound and fury: Shakespeare and helicopters in the park
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    For 56 years, theatergoers have enjoyed Shakespeare in the Park at the Delacorte Theater in Central Park. Founder Joe Papp overcame opposition from the all-powerful Robert Moses and happily, ever since, 100,000 annually have delighted to the works of the Bard of Avon, free of charge.

    The world’s…

  • [NYDN] Hip hop community eying new political party line on ballot, wants Busta Rhymes or LL Cool J to run for governor
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    ALBANY — Expressing frustration that urban issues are not being sufficiently addressed in New York, members of the hip hop community are looking to form their own party line for the coming state elections.

    The line, which would be called the New American Party, is being pushed by Jineea Butler,…

  • [NYDN] Burning the popcorn: The Academy Awards’ new category shows Hollywood in a sorry state
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is designing a new category to honor achievement in popular film.

    Of course great movies can become blockbusters (we’re rooting for Spike Lee’s acclaimed “BlacKkKlansman”). And of course perfectly engineered box-office candy can be great (go see the…

  • [NYDN] LOVETT: Kalief Browder’s brother backing Nixon over Cuomo, cites stalled criminal justice reforms
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    ALBANY – Akeem Browder, whose brother committed suicide after spending three years on Rikers Island awaiting trial on charges he stole a backpack when he was 16, is backing actress Cynthia Nixon over Gov. Cuomo in the coming Democratic primary.

    In doing so, Browder said Cuomo has failed to deliver…

  • [NYDN] Dutchess county state Senate candidate is sister-in-law of Cuomo campaign chairman
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 12:55:00 AM)

    The following is an expanded version of the second item of my “Albany Insider” column from Monday’s print editions:

    ALBANY — Karen Smythe, a Democrat challenging incumbent Republican state Sen. Sue Serino in Dutchess County, is the sister-in-law of Gov. Cuomo’s campaign chairman and former top…

  • [NYDN] EXCLUSIVE: Assembly speaker feeds state Senate Dems pork to help with effort to win control of chamber
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 12:50:00 AM)

    ALBANY — Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie has directed hundreds of thousands of dollars in Assembly pork money to help a fellow Democrat with his reelection effort, the Daily News has learned.

    What makes this a rare move is that this time, the Assembly powerbroker is assisting a member of the state…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on NYCHA, Alex Jones and Michael Kay
    (Monday, August 13, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Keep your NYCHA promises, Bill

    Little Egg Harbor, N.J.: To Voicer Paula Cruz, who asks why the blame for what is going on with the NYCHA is on Mayor de Blasio’s shoulders: For one thing, He promised while he was campaigning that he would take responsibility and assured those living in public housing…

  • [NYDN] Sonny Gray’s struggles at Yankee Stadium continue, even in relief, but he says there’s no extra pressure in the Bronx
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 9:15:00 PM)

    It’s never Sonny in the Bronx.

    Struggling Yankees’ right-hander Sonny Gray made his second appearance out of the bullpen Sunday and left after allowing two runs on five hits in an inning plus of work.

    After the Rangers scored two runs off him in the seventh, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre opened…

  • [NYDN] Mets captain David Wright plays five innings at third base in rehab game, believes he can return to majors
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 9:15:00 PM)

    David Wright believes he took a “baby step in the right direction” toward a potential long-awaited return to the majors.

    The Mets captain felt “butterflies” as he participated in his first rehab game Sunday afternoon, going 0-for-3 and playing third base for five innings with Class A St. Lucie….

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — August 13, 2018
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for August 13, 2018

    An all-too-familiar theme resurfaces today, requiring us to make crucial choices between real-world responsibilities and our captivating dreams. Insistent Mars retrogrades back into industrious Capricorn for a one-month remedial program…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Didi Gregorius does it all in Yankee win over Rangers, proving to be a leader for club’s young infielders as well
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 8:45:00 PM)

    Didi Gregorius made it work like only he could. On a sharp groundball in the hole, the Yankees shortstop made a diving backhand grab. In the dugout his manager was thinking “No, no, no,” watching the Rangers’ speedy center fielder Delino DeShields racing toward first base. But the smooth and calm…

  • [NYDN] Man charged over loaded gun in 4-year-old son’s backpack
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 8:25:00 PM)

    EDWARDSVILLE, Ill. — An Illinois man is charged with reckless conduct after authorities say his 4-year-old son found a gun in a backpack his father had brought to him at day care.

    The Belleville News-Democrat reports that authorities say 32-year-old Joshua Finley of Maryville packed a “nap time…

  • [NYDN] SEE IT: Video shows mugger choking Harlem victim into unconsciousness
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 8:10:00 PM)

    An armed robber choked a Harlem man into unconsciousness as he tried to steal the man’s cell phone from his hand, shocking surveillance video shows.

    The robber, who wore an “R.I.P. Youth” t-shirt, stalked the victim into the stairwell of his building on W. 147th St. building near Amsterdam Ave….

  • [NYDN] Utah man had $100G in drugs mailed to him: police
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 8:10:00 PM)

    PROVO, Utah — Authorities say a man has been arrested in Orem after allegedly having $100,000 in illegal drugs mailed to him.

    The Daily Herald reports 29-year-old Manteo Soto of Price was arrested Friday on suspicion of distributing, offering or arranging the distribution of a controlled substance.

  • [NYDN] NYCFC takes advantage of Jozy Altidore being sent off as Ismael Tajouri-Shradi nets winner in 88th minute to top Toronto FC
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 7:25:00 PM)

    TORONTO — A defining theme of Toronto FC’s 2017 season was control. You always sensed the Reds just about clung on to it — even through the moments, in the playoffs and the Canadian Championship, when they sailed closest to the wind.

    At its best — including in the MLS Cup final — Toronto was an…

  • [NYDN] Tiger Woods, fist pumping once again, places second at PGA Championship for best major finish since 2009
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 6:55:00 PM)

    The fist pump for the birdie at the 18th was demonstrative, but didn’t have the same ferocity as the celebration a decade ago at Torrey Pines.

    The result was not a major triumph, but a significant step in an extraordinary comeback.

    Tiger Woods didn’t win the PGA Championship on Sunday, but it sure…

  • [NYDN] Police search Jamaica Bay for woman, 35, feared drowned as husband swam nearby
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 6:25:00 PM)

    Police searched Sunday for a 35-year-old woman feared pulled underwater by rising tides in Jamaica Bay.

    The woman and her husband were swimming in the bay off Bayswater Point State Park Sunday evening when she disappeared around 5:30 p.m., authorities said.

    NYPD divers and a police helicopter searched…

  • [NYDN] ‘Can you believe your little girl is in New York City?’ Australian tourist told dad before tragic cycling death
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 6:25:00 PM)

    Like so many other visitors to New York, Australian tourist Madison Jane Lyden was on a “trip of a lifetime” — but hers ended in horror and tragedy.

    “Dad, can you believe your little girl is in New York City?” she gushed the last time she spoke to her father in Tasmania, nearly on the other side…

  • [NYDN] Kat Graham was not thrifty because it was cool
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 5:40:00 PM)

    “Vampire Diaries” star Kat Graham wasn’t one of the cool kids at her area thrift shop.

    “When I was young, I was really poor and my mom and I use to go vintage shopping and I’d see all of these cool kids like (deejay) Steve Aoki and (photographer) Cobrasnake at the vintage shops, but we were there…

  • [NYDN] Woman busted for allegedly stabbing husband with sword
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 5:25:00 PM)

    PORT ORCHARD, Wash. — A Bremerton woman has been charged with second-degree assault after authorities say she stabbed her husband in the arm with a samurai sword.

    The Kitsap Sun reports the man called police early Wednesday morning and was later flown to a Seattle hospital.

    The man told police…

  • 67 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2018.08.13)

    1. Totes McGoats as Totes McGoats

      Since the end of the season, I have seen a lot of takes. Hot takes, good takes, bad takes, accurate takes with stats & facts, dreamy takes, and delusional takes lol. Without sounding too optimistic, I think there are a couple things that we overlook sometimes:
      1. If THJ never gets injured early on, we would have had an entirely different season. The threat of what THJ can do, moderate as some feel it is, was enough to allow KP to dominate. Who knows? Maybe not having to carry the whole load once THJ went down would have led to KP not flaming out as quickly.
      2. Frank should be the starting PG with Burke 2nd string. Why? In KP-Knox-THJ, we have 3 scorers who are versatile enough to threaten defenses. I’m not suggesting that’s a great core, just that it’s a good start. If we can defenders at the 1 and 5 to add to that in the starting lineup, then build quality depth- we may not even have to press for a “max player”. In steps MitchRob & Ntilikina. They have to develop. Moving Burke to the bench helps improve depth. And we have young pieces like Dotson, Trier, Hezonja, and Vonleh to look at for future spots at well. Of course this is contingent on KP getting healthy. Again, I’m not saying it’s great- but we may be slightly ahead of the rebuilding curve with what we have now- especially if MitchRob and Ntilikina develop. To begin the season, Kanter starts. But at some point I’d like to see MitchRob eat into his minutes. As far as Burke, he’s likely to start- he’s earned it. But I think his role will be the same and can be maximized whether he starts or not. With Fizdale as coach, the Knicks may be playoff bound faster than we expect. Not this season, but soon

    2. bobneptune

      @1

      I actually like what you say here. I agree with what you say and Frank, Knox and MR should get as many minutes as they can physically reasonably handle. When KP returns (hopefully 70 games into the season) that’s should be an interesting defensive core offering elite rim protection which is a pretty fair jumping off point.

      Of course this line-up will go around 15-67 which is perfectly fine with me as these players get their chance to develop. They will just make too many fundamental errors to win games today, but 2 years down the road with a healthy KP and and a top 3 pick this year….. well I guy can dream , can’t he?

      It took the 69 team a half a decade to draft Willis, Clyde , Bradley, Cazzie, Stallworth et al.

    3. alsep73

      The thing with Robinson is that other than the blocks, he seems to have little clue of how to play defense right now. A lot of it is basic fundamental stuff, which in theory should be easier to correct than if he was just too slow. But I think he’s a ways away from being the cure all for our problems on that end. In the short term, his dunking will be his most useful skill for us.

    4. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      In KP-Knox-THJ, we have 3 scorers who are versatile enough to threaten defenses.

      IMO, the 2 most important things are high volume efficient scorers and elite defenders.

      To have a high level offense you typically need 3 versatile efficient volume scorers. You can get away with 2 if you have a couple great scorers, but even then you need more than that. After you have your 3 scorers, the idea is improve their efficiency with better shooting, better shot selection, better play making etc…

      If our “big 3″ don’t have the skills and basketball IQ to do that, then we will have to replace 1 or more of them or reduce their role.

      On the defensive side we have KP and Frank. I think we need at least 1 more high level defender to kind of lock teams down well enough. If Robinson turns into that player we’ll be in good shape, especially since he’s likely to be very efficient around the basket on low volume and will pick up the slack on the boards.

      In the end I think Hardaway will be the scorer to have his role reduced to coming off the bench. We’ll probably add another high level scorer in free agency.

      I’m not worried about KP’s efficiency because he has the skills to score efficiently. His problem is shot selection. We don’t know enough about Knox yet, but he already has skills.

    5. Hubert

      I think the reason some people perceive the Knicks to be good at the draft comes from the fact that we have been good at avoiding complete busts. There’s no “Hasheem Thabeet at 2” or “Ekpe Udoh at 6” kind of picks in recent memory. We probably have to go back to Michael Sweetney for the last time we drafted a non-NBA quality player. For the most part, we’ve drafted players who actually manage to carve out NBA careers.

      So I think it’s fair to say the Knicks are good at identifying professional basketball players/avoiding busts in the draft. This is a fairly valuable skill, as their are a fair amount of busts every year. But it’s not the same as being good at the draft. I’d say we’re about average.

    6. alsep73

      We probably have to go back to Michael Sweetney for the last time we drafted a non-NBA quality player. For the most part, we’ve drafted players who actually manage to carve out NBA careers.

      I know Jordan Hill stuck around quite a while, but he feels pretty close to Sweetney in outcome. In some ways, he’s worse, because there were clearly players (Teague, Lawson, Holiday, DeRozan) we should’ve taken instead of him once Curry was off the board. Much better players were drafted after Sweetney (David West, Kyle Korver, Kendrick Perkins), but all would’ve been considered major reaches for that draft spot at the time.

    7. bobneptune

      The thing with Robinson is that other than the blocks, he seems to have little clue of how to play defense right now. A lot of it is basic fundamental stuff, which in theory should be easier to correct than if he was just too slow. But I think he’s a ways away from being the cure all for our problems on that end. In the short term, his dunking will be his most useful skill for us.

      Totally agree…. and that is why he should be getting his reps with the best coaching which I assume is on the Knick’s staff while impacting negative on the w/l record. :-)

      On the offensive side he he has skills… he catches the ball well and finishes with both hands as well as being a fast twitch athlete. He is clearly in the embryonic stage of his development and to expect net positive out comes is a bit of a stretch at this point…. repeat this mantra….. losses are good…..losses are good.

    8. Donnie Walsh

      In some ways, he’s worse, because there were clearly players (Teague, Lawson, Holiday, DeRozan) we should’ve taken instead of him once Curry was off the board.

      Yeah, but if they had decided to go with a guard it would have been Brandon Jennings.

    9. swiftandabundant

      Reading the back and forth about drafting skills by The Knicks and I would say the “correct” answer is that there just isn’t enough evidence to say conclusively if the Knicks are good at drafting or not bc we’ve traded away so many of our picks. A lot of our picks have been later in the first round or in the second round.

      It just occurred to me, though, that Mozgov wasn’t included on the list of players we drafted. Should we include the non drafted players that we picked up/brought to camp too? Cause we’ve had some success with that too. Mozgov and Lin, for example. Both way better than expected since they were undrafted players we brought in.

    10. Donnie Walsh

      Who still would have been better than Jordan Hill!

      I don’t know. Jennings had a triple double in his debut game, and scored 55 points during his second week in the league. He did little else, but still managed to turn that into a long term deal before rapidly turning into a vet’s minimum caliber player. That is, quite literally, the worst kind of player to draft.

      Milwaukee was smart and didn’t double down on him (Detroit trades Kris Middleton in the sign and trade, oops). But there is no way the Knicks and their PG starved fan base wouldn’t have gone gaga over him in his first two weeks and built statues of him on 34th street and given him the Allan Houston contract negotiation treatment.

      (But, then again, they wouldn’t have traded him for Tracy McGrady either, so who knows how different things could have been…)

    11. GianaDani

      With LBJ out west now too, is there a shot Antonio Davis wants out of New Orleans and heads east so that he can go to NBA finals and play for a ring.

      GS
      Houston
      OKC
      San Antonio
      Utah
      Denver
      LA

      He’ll be lucky to get an 8 seed and get bumped in the first round for the foreseeable future. We have assets now. It should take an expiring (Kanter), two young players with high ceilings (Knox, Timmy) and an unprotected 1st round pick.

    12. ClashFan

      Antonio Davis? He’s good, but not worth that package. Maybe if they throw in Rik Smits in as well?

      Wait, what year is this? I’m getting old.
      :-)

    13. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      KnicksfaninNJ,

      Even though I think you’re misrepresenting VORP as something other than a function of BPM over minutes played, I appreciate that you took time to make an evidence-based argument.

      A certain other poster in that thread was blowing hot air and calling it fact. So even though I disagree with your premises, thank you for making an effort to re-elevate the level of discourse on this blog.

    14. Z-man

      Fact: PER correlates more closely with BPM than WP. Let’s see, who has spent the last decade trashing PER and touting WP?

    15. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Your axe needs grinding, Z-man. The troll is pretty weak over the last couple of days. Pretty transparent.

    16. chrisk06811

      The thing with Robinson is that other than the blocks, he seems to have little clue of how to play defense right now.

      This pretty much sums up my game, except i’m a horrible shot blocker

    17. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Melo’s gonna be a big story this year. I’m going to eat some serious crow if he has a bounce-back season, but, haha, nah, that ain’t happening.

    18. danvt

      Z-Man is not a troll. Jowles is the guy who’s pretty nasty to everyone…

      Both post interesting and informative stuff about basketball.

    19. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      So Z-man makes claims without evidence, scoffs at evidence contrary to his (baseless) claims, and then dismisses VORP out of hand because (???) and claims that he’s won the argument because Porzingis is cleeeeearly better than Willie Cauley Stein.

      Have I been the troll over the last several days, since this stupid claim of Knick superiority arose?

    20. swiftandabundant

      YEah but Z-Man isn’t really a dick about his opinions. You are.

      You might win more people over if you were actually civil to people on this blog instead of acting like the smartest douchebag in the world. I actually agree with a lot of your points but tend to want to fight you bc you’re such a tool about it.

    21. geo

      See, man, that’s the difference. between us. You think we’re fighting, I think we’re finally talking!

    22. GianaDani

      Think Melo may be motivated cause he has to prove himself again. If he looses ~ 30 pounds and gets himself in shape, he could have a lot more in the tank. Hard to be viewed as a legend when you let the entire league shit on you during last 4-5 years or so… Beating GS and getting a chip solidifies his career.

    23. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      I’m not responding to ad hominem attacks today. It’s my birthday week, so haters can suck my ass. Just the way it’s gonna be. And if you don’t like that, you can suck my ass, hater. ; )

      The biggest issue for me is that Z-man is making claims in the face of evidence that’s, at best, inconclusive.

      My claim: Porzingis has performed significantly worse than a top-10 pick’s expected two-year max VORP. Given his age, there’s a possibility that in the future he will surpass the expected VORP of a player drafted where he was, but this is speculative. Everyone else has been a scrub in terms of marginal value, except Fields, who had a flash in the pan rookie year and then also became pretty scrubbish. (The irony of Fields being the best performer relative to expected value, when Z-man has made a commentating career disparaging role players like Fields, Faried, DeJuan Blair and others.)

      This argument, which I made, describes the current value of Porzingis on a basketball court but I readily admit that it is inconclusive because Porzingis’s career is ongoing. I admit this even though our 7’3″ Carmelo clone just suffered an ACL injury that will sideline him for 12 months! My point is that the Knicks have not demonstrated draft or asset superiority in a way that leads to positive knowledge.

      His claims: VORP is dumb, it was a good pick because NBA consensus is that Porzingis is still valued more than most young players, or something like that.

      Everything comes from the belief that the Knicks have been better at drafting, and he asks detractors to prove that his belief isn’t true. (Or, at best, he appeals to common sense, which is not persuasive.) He prioritizes that belief or common sense over VORP, which is not perfect, but (jesus christ how many times am I going to write this) better than unsubstantiated faith-based claims.

    24. danvt

      I get by far the best info about basketball from this site. Some posts are more researched than others but almost everything is better than espn.com and TV talking heads. People here are pretty civil on the whole and each post tends to bring a different point of view and some nuance. This is no fanboy page. Posts are mostly even handed, well written and I often fritter away perfectly good afternoons enmeshed in these threads.

      I rarely view posts here with disdain.

    25. Nick C.

      Think Melo may be motivated cause he has to prove himself again. If he looses ~ 30 pounds and gets himself in shape, he could have a lot more in the tank. Hard to be viewed as a legend when you let the entire league shit on you during last 4-5 years or so… Beating GS and getting a chip solidifies his career.

      I thought every summer Melo has been posting Hoodie Melo and other such workout warrior videos or photos on his social media. So I’m not sure there is a workout or PED that can help him at this stage.

    26. danvt

      @27
      Your third and fourth paragraphs are strong. Just keep it to that…

      Interesting and gives a totally different take compared to the consensus in the media.

    27. J Weezy

      @26

      Melo is cooked. He is far from a productive player anymore playing starter minutes (>30 minutes). Even if he is willing to play a bench role, which he’s stated countless times that he would not, I highly doubt his game could even mold into that role. He just does not have enough league average skills on offense at this point in his career to justify playing him in spite of his passive at best defense anymore.

    28. geo

      isn’t melo and ryan anderson about the same kind of player at this point in their careers?

      granted, melo may not think so, but…

    29. danvt

      Disclaimer: I’m unworthy because I just watch basketball and rely on the eye test. I get my stats based reality here and I learn…

      But what I hear Z-Man saying is that the act of drafting players has not been the Knicks problem. Everybody hits and misses in the draft. The problem for our beloved team has been valuing players we have and making a mess of the team building process. He thinks (I think), and I agree, that Kevin Knox is OK given that we were picking 9th.

      Again, I read the thread from two days ago and then went surfing…

      Take what I say with the proverbial grain of salt…

    30. geo

      ***news flash – workers outside of madison garden have been seen altering the statue they were creating for last year’s rookie sensation frank ntilikina to match the likeness of this year’s sure to be rookie sensation kevin knox…

      of course the statue’s height still needs to be adjusted down from past rookie sensation kp’s stately stature…

    31. J Weezy

      @32

      If the money is equal, I’d much rather have Ryan Anderson. He has a better career percentage from 3pt and can fit in the stretch 4 role off the bench much better than Carmelo. Also, if you want to continue with the VORP argument, Anderson posted a 1.0 while Carmelo tallied -1.1

    32. Z-man

      @17 Actually, I’m not trolling at all. I made the point that the Knicks have drafted reasonably well relative to drafting position over the past decade and that their problems have little to do with draft-day decision-making compared to trades and non-trades, FA signings and general FO incompetence beyond draft scouting and selection. Enough posters (including some who I have had heated disputes with) have suggested that my points were reasonable enough to satisfy me that they were. The fact that you dismissed my arguments as unsubstantiated trolling is actually trolling on your part.

      You, on the other hand, embarked on a misguided counterargument by cherry-picking VORP data to suit your own narrative that the Knicks have sucked at everything aspect of running a franchise.

      As to @16, read this excerpt from an article on B-R entitled <a href="About Box Plus-Minus":

      Note: in the previous exposition of this stat, Wins Produced was included in this table, and had an R2 on RAPM significantly worse than PER.

      So now you are using VORP in the same way that you used WP48 in the past to suit your narrative back then. I find it amusing that WP48 has not only been relegated to the margins of serious analysis, but that it has been clearly demonstrated to be comparatively more out of whack with BPM and VORP than PER!

      Of course, your predictably lame response is to accuse me of trolling or some kind of ad hominem attack, like the “endowment effect” bullshit you offered up earlier.

      What’s funny is that we actually agree on most things. I think that we even agree on the drafting issue, and that the differences are mainly semantics-based.

    33. GoNyGoNyGo

      Picking up from yesterday….

      @9

      We already see it though, a PF age 21 he already has an acl. ONE MORE AND THATS ALL SHE WROTE.

      Crazy comparison but KD on gsw. He has had some issues with his foot an mcl but never an acl.( gs is so well suited to absorb any major injury they wouldn’t be crippled as a franchise. We are in the opposite position, all our eggs are in one basket.)
      Considering Kd career usage rate and career minutes, KPs injury is a real concern and some of that has to be due to his height. How many 7’3 pf can you name? Not many

      Sorry Mase, “1” does not make for good statistical information. Anyone at any age can tear an ACL. A 15 year old kid that played baseball on a Little League team I coached had an ACL tear while running the bases. He was around 5’6″ at the time.
      How many 7’3″ PEOPLE can you name?
      I’ll just say that 7’2″ Kareem Abdul-Jabbar played 29 years and his “low” number for games played was 62 in 77-78. And he didn’t take 3-point shots. Wilt Chamberlin 7’1″ played 15 years and had one severe knee injury in 69-70 in the beginning of the season. He returned for the last 3 regular season games and played in the playoffs. Both Kareem and Wilt played during a much more physically demanding era.

      Again, I would love to see medical statistics about tall NBA players and injuries. I just don’t think it’s smart for us to come up with unfounded medical predictions.

    34. GoNyGoNyGo

      On the issue of “draft success”, I’ll repeat that the Knicks have neither drafted well or often.

      The Knicks traded their #1 pick (Nene) for a washed up McDyess. Does that count as a good or bad pick?

      Soak this up: In the last 10 years, the Knicks have had only 7 first round picks. In the same time, both the Celtics and the 76’ers have had 14.

    35. Hubert

      What’s funny is that we actually agree on most things. I think that we even agree on the drafting issue, and that the differences are mainly semantics-based.

      Yeah that’s kinda what I picked up on while reading the exchange, too.

      You can make a good case, and Jowles did, that the Knicks are not an excellent drafting team. But Z-Man’s overall point, i.e. that drafting has been one of the things we’ve done relatively well compared to the rest of our operations and isn’t the reason we’ve had a shit 21st century, is probably widely agreed upon.

    36. Donnie Walsh

      The Knicks traded their #1 pick (Nene) for a washed up McDyess. Does that count as a good or bad pick?

      It counts as a good pick by Kiki Vandeweghe for the Denver Nuggets. (If the Knicks had kept the pick they probably would have drafted Chris Wilcox, but that is neither here-nor-there because they didn’t.)

    37. Z-man

      I’m not responding to ad hominem attacks today. It’s my birthday week, so haters can suck my ass. Just the way it’s gonna be. And if you don’t like that, you can suck my ass, hater. ; )

      Happy Birthday, enjoy your favorite bleach cocktail on me! Or a hefty dose of Lagavulin 16 (fyi my wife actually despises Scotch and might prefer the bleach.)

      The biggest issue for me is that Z-man is making claims in the face of evidence that’s, at best, inconclusive.

      Here’s where semantics become important. My claim is that the Knicks made fine draft day decisions (other than trading up or down) irrespective of how the players actually turned out. For example, Cleanthony Early was projected to be a late first round pick and was a fine pick (consistent with what most GMs would have picked) in spite of not developing. That’s different than saying that Cleanthony was a good pick because he became a good player. Others here seem to get what I’m saying and agree with it, why is it so hard for you?

    38. GoNyGoNyGo

      (If the Knicks had kept the pick they probably would have drafted Chris Wilcox, but that is neither here-nor-there because they didn’t.)

      Yeah. I shouldn’t have left that in my post which should have been about this past decade only. The point I was making is that if you have few picks, you have few chances to hit on a pick. I would say we “hit” or better stated, didn’t completely screw up 6 of the picks this past decade (including 2nd rounders but not 2018 picks). They would be: Ntilikina, KP, THJr, Shump, Fields & Jordan Hill. One of those 6 might be considered a star (KP). If you want to add Galo because I didn’t include the rookie class, we’ll say it was 7 players weren’t 100% busts.

    39. Z-man

      Jerian Grant and Willy Hernangomez should count as hits as well, since we essentially drafted them.

    40. alsep73

      And the Kyrie/Butler rumors continue.

      I can’t decide if it’s good news or bad news that we have no easy way to offer them both max contracts next summer. I’m terrified of gambling on them both — though I agree with those who’ve said a healthy Kyrie is a perfect complement to Frank — so the idea that we’d have to move heaven, earth, and some primo draft picks (or young assets like Robinson) to get rid of the Noah and/or Hardaway contracts and clear enough cap space either means we’re assured of it not happening, or we’re assured that Perry and Mills will make the same mistakes Donnie Walsh did heading into 2010.

    41. GoNyGoNyGo

      “essentially” is a good word. Wily was technically drafted by Philadelphia.
      They received a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick for him.
      We traded him for to Charlotte for a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick.

      Essentially a wash for us and a pick-up for the 76’ers.

    42. Donnie Walsh

      The Nene Pick was made by the Knicks, but Denver told the Knicks who to draft because the Knicks couldn’t technically trade the pick until it was made (Stepian rule). They had traded their 2001 1st round pick (for Othella “The Missing Piece” Harrington), so it shows up on basketball reference as NY drafting Nene, but they didn’t draft him.

      (In the case of Grant, he was actually drafted by the Hawks I think, because his pick originated in Washington. Not sure how the Knicks could have made that pick via Washington.)

    43. GoNyGoNyGo

      I disagree with the whole idea of stretching Noah. Nobody’s really seen him healthy for a long time. I wouldn’t cut bait with him just yet. I believe that he’s motivated and if he’s healthy, why not give him a shot at a roster spot? Is he a cancer? We might think that we know, but we really don’t. I doubt we’ll ever see him pull a Marbury.

    44. ClashFan

      FWIW, I count players drafted and acquired on the same night as in the “drafted” ledger. In effect, the Knicks “drafted” Grant and Willy.

      BTW, Jowles, this is my birthday week, too. So, happy birthday to both of us!

    45. GoNyGoNyGo

      FWIW, I count players drafted and acquired on the same night as in the “drafted” ledger. In effect, the Knicks “drafted” Grant and Willy.

      Fair.
      What do the current Knicks have for either of them? Not much. They kinda have Damyean Dotson because of Grant. I wouldn’t consider either Grant or Dotson a draft “hit”.

    46. chrisk06811

      I love looking at old drafts. Remember the year we took Channing Frye, got the pick that was Nate, and then took David Lee 30th? Then in the 2nd round, at 54, we took Dijon Thompson, who is my favorite player named after a mustard. I thought we did great, until I saw Lou Williams went 45 and Gortat 57

    47. dtrickey

      I would say that the Knicks are average drafters at best. Problem is most 1st rounders we have managed to pick have been bottom half of the 1st round; so given a decent chunk of the 30 players picked in the first round never really amount to much (I believe average NBA career is 4-5 years from memory), it’s hard to say we draft well given more players “bust” than not.

      In the last 10 years, I would probably say the following have been “good picks” relative to where they were drafted and the careers they have had to date:

      Ariza (44)
      Frye (8)
      Lee (30)
      Chandler (23)
      Gallinari (6 arguably could have gotten a lot more out of a no.6 pick, but he still has had a nice career despite injuries)
      Shumpert (17 although I appreciate this might be up for debate)
      THJ2 (24 still probably TBD, but hard to say he is a bust as a late 1st round pick)

      That’s about a 23% hit rate on their 31 picks since 2000. Jury is still out on KP, Frank, Dotson, Knox and Robinson so that could change the numbers. Given KP, Frank and Knox represent a decent chunk of the top 10 picks we have had in the last 20 years, if they can become decent players then maybe we can start taking about NYK being good drafters. Other side of that is that those players listed above didn’t really became good players until after they left NYK, so it’s probably a moot point in the end given we have been shit at developing draftees.

    48. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      1. Porzingis was not a very good pick because stats models suggest he’s been mediocre so far.

      2. Porzingis was a good pick because Porzingis is still valued more by the NBA than most other young players (implied here is that he;s not very good but NBA teams are dumb).

      There is a 3rd option.

      The NBA consensus is correct because the stats models are not capturing his value properly.

    49. Hubert

      I do agree that the stat models we use can’t completely capture players’ values, but how do they struggle with Porzingis?

    50. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      In terms of Porzinigs most aren’t getting his contribution to defense right. Above that, they still don’t capture the value of stretch PFs properly because the lower rebounding rate that results from being on the perimeter more often on both sides of the ball is offset (and probably exceeded) by the better spacing they provide for teammates. There are loads of other things wrong with models, but those are the 2 biggest that impact KP. It’s a very complex game. It’s hard to capture the values correctly when there are so many moving parts and it’s a team game.

    51. dtrickey

      Bit of buzz floating around on twitter that the FO is trying to move Lee before camp but the offers haven’t been great.

      I haven’t seen any alleged offers, but it sounds like teams are asking for picks back to take on Lee’s contract. Would have thought he would be more valuable to a team than just as a cap space rental, but I think we have all potentially at some point overestimated what we could get for Lee.

    52. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      because the lower rebounding rate that results from being on the perimeter more often on both sides of the ball is offset (and probably exceeded) by the better spacing they provide for teammates

      ruruland called, he wants his argument about 2011-12 Carmelo Anthony back

    53. 2FOR18, understands math

      Happy bday Jowles.
      I was always impressed that you were willing to go point for point with ruru, as my eyes glazed over about a 3rd of the way through his posts; the man was relentless. Intuitively, he was so obviously wrong about just about everything, but you were willing to go in the weeds with him.

    54. dtrickey

      I wonder if RuRu has made it over to the Rocketblogger yet? Been a whirlwind 12 months for him going from KB to the OKC blog and then to Houston. I don’t think people appreciate the toll that takes moving around like that, but it’s just the nature of the business man.

    55. GoNyGoNyGo

      Everyone knows that Lee’s on the block but there’s no reason to trade Lee now.
      He’s trade deadline trade bait – just the type of piece a contending team might need.
      Only deal when it makes sense. It doesn’t make sense until there’s demand for his service.

    56. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      ruruland called, he wants his argument about 2011-12 Carmelo Anthony back

      1. I hope you aren’t arguing that PFs playing on the perimeter don’t get fewer rebounds than they would in they played in a more traditional role. You would be wrong on that.

      2. If you are arguing they get fewer rebounds but the extra spacing from being an outside threat does not impact the offense positively enough to offset the loss of rebounding, that’s at reasonable position. However, you are then arguing that every team in the NBA has been foolish for moving in that direction and is compounding the foolishness by now asking Cs to play the same way.

      I’m not buying it.

      It’s hard to measure the value of anything in basketball properly (quite easy to pretend you can though) but it’s obvious that when KP has to guard some small sharp shooting PF on the perimeter, it’s having a positive impact on the other team’s offense given that KP won’t be in the paint swatting away shots by their slashers, cutters, and drivers. He’s also getting fewer rebounds. Same when he’s dragging some big outside.

      The same phenomenon makes SGs look weak on many boxscore models.

      SGs tend to be small, play on the perimeter, and don’t get to handle the ball as often as PGs. So it’s kind of tough to accumulate a lot of positive boxscore stats. What they do tend to well is shoot and space the floor. That’s why despite advanced stats models saying most of them aren’t very good, coaches keep playing them. Their value accrues to their teammates boxscores in the same way a great pass adds to the efficiency of the player receiving it. The thing is, we have assists in the boxscore to measure passing value. We don’t have spacing and defense in the boxscore to measure just how good Klay Thompson is.

    57. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      continued..

      And yes, there are examples of SGs that had great boxscore stats (like Jordan, Wade, Bryant). Those guys generally play a different role. They handle the ball way more often and are able to score and accumulate assists too. They are generally teamed with non traditional PGs who play off of them instead of being the dominant playmaker.

      The boxscore is in large part a a reflection of the talent and skills of the player, but it is also in part a reflection of the role of the player on a team trying to maximize the whole with other players that have different or overlapping skills.

    58. Bruno Almeida

      The thing that makes me call bs on every one of those “basketball is complex and advanced stats are always flawed!” arguments is that somehow all the complexities advanced stats can’t account for are always favorable to the Knicks player du jour on the conversation (unless he’s called Tyson Chandler or Willy Hernangomez, then it’s always against them).

      What about the complex idea that KP being a poor rebounder puts extra strain on his teammates to go for these rebounds, making the game harder for them? How about KP’s inability to shoot at an above-average rate makes his guards look worse because they get less assists from his bricks? How about KP’s lack of an inside game forcing his fellow big men to bang inside with opposing bigs on the offensive paint all game long makes them more tired and less effective overall? How about maybe, just maybe, his production is actually subpar and he needs to improve in a lot of areas to actually deserve the contract he’ll eventually get?

    59. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      And yes, there are examples of SGs that had great boxscore stats (like Jordan, Wade, Bryant). Those guys generally play a different role. They handle the ball way more often and are able to score and accumulate assists too. They are generally teamed with non traditional PGs who play off of them instead of being the dominant playmaker.

      So in terms of the Knicks, if Ntilikina had a reliable three point shot, would pairing him with, say, THJ, give us this sort of combination?

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