Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Knicks Morning News (2018.08.12)

  • [NYDN] Roosevelt Island apartment complex to remain affordable after deal announced by Gov. Cuomo
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    What a deal.

    An agreement has been reached to keep more than 360 Roosevelt Island apartments affordable for another 30 years, Gov. Cuomo announced Sunday.

    The 11th hour plan allows the owners of the Westview housing development to exit the Mitchell-Lama rental program, but tenants will have the…

  • [NYDN] Donald Trump’s human shield: Ivanka, the dutiful daughter, keeps playing her part
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    Comedians Amy Schumer and Chelsea Handler are organizing the women Ivanka Trump follows on Instagram to flood her feed. It’s no laughing matter. They’re reminding her that the abuse of children at the border continues, that she’s been no help, and criticized her for her cluelessness when she finally…

  • [NYDN] Nixon strikes a blow for labor: Why returning public-sector workers the right to strike, as a last resort, makes sense
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    Since 1947, it has been illegal for public workers in New York State to go on strike, first under the Condon-Wadlin act, which called for strikers to be fired, and after 1967 under the Taylor Law, which penalizes them two days pay for each day off the job.

    Now Cynthia Nixon, who is challenging…

  • [NYDN] Glitch in the cable system: Charter’s cautionary tale
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 1:10:00 AM)

    Just about never does a state tell a major business offering service to millions of customers to scram. So the decision by New York to eject Charter Communications, rejecting its bid to take over Time Warner Cable’s TV and internet systems across the state, demands extreme scrutiny — not least…

  • [NYDN] Unite the nation: A vile Washington alt-right rally pits puny punks against a great majority for tolerance
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    The size of the rally is destined to be negligible for the nation’s capital, its cause doomed in a gloriously multiracial nation and world, its message of exclusion and hate reprehensible.

    God still blesses the America where sad-sack white supremacists are free to rally Sunday in front of the White…

  • [NYDN] A real catastrophe: Hurricane Maria’s revised death toll
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    On his visit to San Juan last October, cheerleader-in-chief Donald Trump said Puerto Rican and federal officials could be “very proud” that unlike in “a real catastrophe” like Hurricane Katrina, the island had suffered only 16 confirmed deaths.

    That low official count, later upped to 64, helped…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on Brett Kavanaugh, 3D guns and Vic Raschi
    (Sunday, August 12, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Keep Kavanaugh off the high court

    Manhattan: I urge the Daily News to advocate, in the strongest possible terms, that the Senate vote against confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh embodies everything that a justice should not be — partisan, biased, misogynistic, to name but…

  • [NYDN] Rehabbing Mets captain David Wright to play third base for Single A St. Lucie Sunday
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    There’s no quit in David Wright.

    The Mets announced Wright will play five innings at third base Sunday for St. Lucie in a game against Clearwater. The Single-A game is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.

    “I think a lot of people want to get their eyes on him and see how the ball is coming off his bat, how…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Yankees’ Miguel Andujar takes the lead in the Rookie of the Year race with go-ahead home run to beat the Rangers
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    If they ever ask when it happened that Miguel Andujar jumped ahead of his teammate and the rest of the pack in the running for Rookie of the Year, I will point to Saturday afternoon.

    The 23-year-old hammered a two-run, go-ahead home run in the bottom of the seventh, powering the Yankees to a 5-3…

  • [NYDN] Mets flounder in 11th vs. Marlins as Jacob Rhame gives up walk-off double, offense doesn’t score after fourth inning
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    With the game dead-locked until the 11th inning Saturday night, it was clear these two teams toiling way down at the bottom of the NL East were evenly matched.

    But somebody had to win eventually, and the Marlins came through with a walk-off double in the 11th inning by Bryan Holaday off Jacob Rhame…

  • [NYDN] Gridlock Sam: Lots of action at the Stadium this week
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:05:00 PM)

    ALTERNATE SIDE PARKING RULES ARE SUSPENDED WEDNESDAY FOR FEAST OF THE ASSUMPTION

    Busy week at The Stadium in the Bronx with eight straight games including a one-game subway series makeup with the Mets. The Rangers finish their series at 1 p.m. today. Next the not-so-Amazin’s fly in from Miami to…

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — August 12, 2018
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for August 12, 2018

    We must concentrate on certain activities today and let others pass without much notice. Setting priorities is critical since the Moon snuck into practical Virgo last night at 11:58 pm EDT. Although we gain efficiency by filtering out…

  • [NYDN] Police unions in South Florida asking officers to dump Dolphins ticket plans or request refunds after Miami players protest during anthem
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    A police union in South Florida is asking its members to dump their tickets to Miami Dolphins games or pester the team for refunds after two players knelt during the national anthem in Thursday’s preseason game against the Buccaneers.

    Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson both took a knee and teammate…

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — August 11, 2018
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for August 11, 2018

    Unexpected changes clear the air while establishing the structures for our next adventures. A dramatic Leo Solar Eclipse occurs at 5:57 am EDT, revealing parts of our psyche that are lingering in the shadows. This dynamic New Moon Eclipse…

  • [NYDN] JUSTICE: The night of the murdered poets
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    In the summer of 1952, a collection of the Soviet Union’s most luminous Yiddish writers of prose and poetry lived out their final days in the gloom of Moscow’s Lubyanka prison, caught in the gears of Joseph Stalin’s state security mechanism.

    The writers were arrested in the late 1940s in Stalin’s…

  • [NYDN] Memorial service planned for Caribbean Carnival Association President William Howard
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    A memorial service for William (Bill) Howard, president of the West Indian American Day Carnival Association — organizer of the New York Caribbean Carnival and Parade — will be held Wednesday at Brooklyn’s Laurence Woodward Funeral Home, 1 Troy Ave., at 3 p.m.

    Howard — who died Aug. 5 of natural…

  • [NYDN] Long, gruesome history of serial killers
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    As Peter Vronsky walked inside a Times Square fleabag hotel in 1979, a man lugging a bag of bowling balls pushed his way past. Guy must be in a hurry to check out, Vronsky thought.

    Upstairs, some guests upstairs already had — permanently.

    The departing man turned out to be Richard Francis Cottingham….

  • [NYDN] Zach Britton struggles again for Yankees, spoils Lance Lynn’s strong start with shaky 7th
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 7:20:00 PM)

    Zach Britton called it the most frustrating stretch of his career. The lefty closer has struggled with his command since coming to the Yankees in a trade late last month. Saturday, he retired two Rangers quickly in the seventh, but a slow roller for an infield single opened the door for a disastrous…

  • [NYDN] Isaiah Thomas calls Cleveland a ‘s—hole,’ says he understands why LeBron James left
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 6:35:00 PM)

    Isaiah Thomas appears to be learning some of his vocabulary from President Donald Trump, who has often purported to have “the best words.”

    In an Instagram live video on Saturday, Thomas was rattling off the teams he has played for over the years, and didn’t hold back when it came to his short stint…

  • [NYDN] How sweet it is: Port Authority cops honor ‘Donut Boy’ with doughnuts
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 4:00:00 PM)

    Call it a hole-y intervention — and a tasty one too!

    At 10 years old, Tyler Carach and his family have traveled across the country, handing out some 70,000 doughnuts to police officers as a tasty thank you.

    When a few Port Authority cops heard that Carach was stranded at Kennedy Airport as he and…

  • [NYDN] ‘I hope it was worth it': Cops bag Bronx suspect wanted for June killing
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 3:25:00 PM)

    A Bronx man is facing murder charges for his role in the June slaying of a onetime friend and roommate with whom he’d been feuding, officials said Saturday.

    Cops tracked down and arrested Thomas Bowles, 20, in South Carolina on Thursday and returned him to New York.

    Bowles was ordered held without…

  • [NYDN] Jets LB Kevin Pierre-Louis suspended for first game of season for violating NFL’s drug policy
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 3:15:00 PM)

    Another Jet will not be eligible for the first week of the 2018 season.

    Linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis has been suspended for the first game of the regular season, the Daily News confirmed Saturday.

    A statement from the Jets said Pierre-Louis is being suspended without pay for violating the NFL’s…

  • [NYDN] Actor Liev Schreiber charged with harassment after altercation with photographer
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 3:00:00 PM)

    Actor Liev Schreiber is facing a harassment charge after he got into an altercation with a photographer in Rockland County.

    The 50-year-old Golden Globe winner was filming an episode of the Showtime crime drama “Ray Donovan” when he got into it with a local shutterbug in Nyack last June, according…

  • [NYDN] President Trump blasts Omarosa as a ‘lowlife’ in light of book claiming he’s a racist showing signs of ‘mental decline’
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 2:45:00 PM)

    President Trump went low.

    The commander-in-chief on Saturday called former White House aide and fellow reality TV star Omarosa Manigault Newman a “lowlife.”

    The name-calling came in response to a question about a series of explosive claims in Manigault Newman’s forthcoming book about her time in…

  • [NYDN] The tangled web Trump weaves: Look around at the crooks and creeps attached to our President
    (Saturday, August 11, 2018 2:00:00 PM)

    The trouble with mapping the crimes and criminals of Trumpland is all the lines shooting out wildly in different directions with arrows pointing to and from crew members aiming to steal what they can from whomever they can as they vie for their share of the spoils from the boss who somehow ended…

  • 50 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2018.08.12)

    1. Z-man
      Ahhh, don’t forget 2015; Willie Cauley-Stein

      WCS could still end up having the better career than Porzingis, too early to tell.

      And I didn’t assemble that list to prove Jowles a charlatan. Just to objectively compare the Knicks picks vs the “advanced stat bot” picks during those years. It doesn’t appear there is a sliding doors parallel story where the advanced stat bot guides the Knicks to a future via the draft. Lawson, Blair, Bullock, or Speights wouldn’t have been much different from what we got out of Gallinari, Hill, or Hardaway. But Faried was a lot better than Shumpert during that small window where the Knicks fielded a decently competitive team, so who knows what may have happened differently in 2012…

      But to me, the problem the Knicks have had, it seems, isn’t that they draft poorly relative to other teams. It’s that they simply don’t draft enough, relative to other teams.

      Exactly. And sure, WCS could have a better career than the oft-fatigued and injured KP, although right now there is no comparison regarding the strategic asset value of the picks. What could you trade WCS for right now? Maybe a top-20 protected #1, if that? My guess is, rightfully or wrongly, nothing remotely close to what you can get for KP.

      And as much as I like KP, if someone feels that his stamina, injury and efficiency issues are likely to keep him from ever being the max player he is surely going to be paid to be, then I would have no problem with the suggestion that he’s at his peak value right now and should be traded for multiple assets. I said as much when Phil was trying to trade him to Boston for, what was it, 2 #1s and Brown?

    2. mase

      We could get a haul fir KP. I was saying we should have dangled him for luka and future first. That would be a better core and more balanced with Knox, frank and Luka.

      But at least now we will overpay KP and pair him with another injury plagued max player like Kyrie and watch them both on the bench when we make the playoffs in 2020.

    3. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      Here’s an example of why it’s hard to evaluate a team’s ability to draft well.

      1. The Wins Produced model would love some kid that was projected to go late in the 1st round.

      2. He’d get selected somewhere in that range, and they would basically call every owner, GM, and coach an idiot for passing on him.

      3. As a pro, the model would suggest the kid was very productive and should be getting starter minutes, but he’d be buried on the bench. Guess what? The owner, the GM, and coach are idiots.

      4. He’d get traded for scraps and be buried on the bench for another team. Guess what? The new owner, GM, and coach are idiots.

      At no point in time did anyone consider the possibility that the problem was not that everyone on earth except them is an idiot. The problem may be that the model is wrong.

      The point I am making is not to trash Wins Produced. It’s that we all have slightly different ways of evaluating players. That makes it very difficult to objectively evaluate whether a player was a good draft pick or bad draft pick. The way we think about players in college is similar to how we think about them as pros. If we disagreed about them in college, in many cases we will disagree about them later.

    4. GoNyGoNyGo

      But to me, the problem the Knicks have had, it seems, isn’t that they draft poorly relative to other teams. It’s that they simply don’t draft enough, relative to other teams.

      Walking through the history of the Knicks drafts is very painful. It’s both. They traded away many picks for garbage. Many of the picks they made were disasters. They drafted poorly relative to other teams and they had very few picks. It has been a perfect storm.

      I am feeling better about the the team now but it’s contingent on a fantasy…

      Imagine if we don’t trade any more picks.
      Imagine if we trade for a pick or two in the next 3 drafts.
      Imagine if we let the kids develop and resign them.

      We could become good. We could.

    5. GoNyGoNyGo

      @2 – I disagree with trading away any kid age 25 or younger – especially Porzingis. And you don’t trade when the player is injured. His value is at it’s absolute lowest. Buy low, sell high…right?

    6. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      The “average VORP” was the two best seasons by those players.

      I knew I’d provide more evidence and it’d be dismissed out of hand. Z-man has yet to do anything but appeal to “common sense” with no evidence whatsoever.

      Now he’s saying that it’s unfair because Porzingis and Ntilikina could get better over time. And apparently that’s evidence — the same evidence he used to defend the Bargnani trade.

    7. mase

      I agree about selling high but because of his height I feel like he could be injury prone. You have to evaluate that into the equation plus the re signing looming is that a chance the Knicks can afford to take?

      And because of his age his value doesn’t take a big hit. So why trade him is probably the thinking of the FO, but that’s a bigger risk than they think it is.

    8. NahNahNahWeAreGoingTheOtherWay

      Here is basically the current state of the argument from the usual cast of eye-testers, which makes absolutely no sense.

      The Knicks picked players in the draft that were projected to get drafted where the Knicks drafted them. Thus, the Knicks are good at the draft.

      The bar for competence for this franchise has been set very low. It’s like: “Hey, we didn’t do something totally stupid, we are really good at this whole operating a franchise thing!” To be good at something, you can’t be just average. The definition of good implies better than average.

    9. GoNyGoNyGo

      I would love to see some sort of chart that proves tall=injury prone. If we compared players over 7’0″ and those between 6’8 – 6’11”, what would it show us in terms percent of games missed due to injury. I don’t believe we would see a significant difference between someone 6’11” and someone 7’3″.

    10. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      The draft is mostly random bullshit. If we had a sample of 500 draft choices for the same people within an organization, a few teams would wind up with slightly better/worse results, but it’s mostly an efficient market and anything we attribute to skill (or lack thereof) is just the result of random variation and small sample sizes.

      But if you insist on believing there’s a LOT of skill to it, the Knicks made a trade in order to land Hernanagomez. He’s one of the few players drafted in that 2nd round to still be in the NBA. Most of us would prefer we still had him.

      I’m going to guess the Robinson draft is going to look pretty good in a few years even if he doesn’t reach our highest hopes.

    11. 2FOR18, understands math

      @94 who the fuck are you?!

      Z Man – I had a memory of that poster, so I looked the screen name up, and found 2 posts:

      1) blah blah blah……….When the threads get too long, I skip forward to five commenters: Jowles, JK, Brian, Mike K and DRED.

      As someone with a mathematics background and law degree, IMO, Jowles makes the best statistical arguments on this board, and it’s not even close. Sorry haters.

      Lastly, my props to TNT last night for their Sports and Society Segment. The Banana Boat Crew stepped up to the moment. Dignified. Positive. Proud. Responsible. Very proud to see my favorite sport move the conversation forward. Stay woke.

      2. Once again Jowles is on the money, and everyone arguing against him is just flat wrong……..blah blah blah

      So, he’s either Jowles’ #1 fan, or………….

    12. Donnie Walsh

      Here is basically the current state of the argument from the usual cast of eye-testers, which makes absolutely no sense.

      The Knicks picked players in the draft that were projected to get drafted where the Knicks drafted them. Thus, the Knicks are good at the draft.

      I hate the Knicks ownership and all of it’s managers over the last 20 years. You’ll rarely ever see me defend anything they do. But this criticism just doesn’t ring true.

      Over the past 30 years the Knicks have drafted in the top 6 only twice. Both of those time they did not take the “safe” bet: an American college kid that the pundits and fans encouraged. They didn’t even take the athletic freaks with phantom upside that Jowles is complaining about. They took unromantic Europeans with tangible skills. They got booed by the fans. Some fans even cried because they wanted ACCer Justice Winslow or athletic phantom Jerryd Bayless.

      It’s only the top picks where the “busts” happen. Picks 7 on have a lot of variance, and the way to combat that isn’t really to pick better, but to throw more darts. That’s where the Knicks problem lies. They don’t draft high enough, and they don’t draft often enough.

    13. mase

      @9

      We already see it though, a PF age 21 he already has an acl. ONE MORE AND THATS ALL SHE WROTE.

      Crazy comparison but KD on gsw. He has had some issues with his foot an mcl but never an acl.( gs is so well suited to absorb any major injury they wouldn’t be crippled as a franchise. We are in the opposite position, all our eggs are in one basket.)
      Considering Kd career usage rate and career minutes, KPs injury is a real concern and some of that has to be due to his height. How many 7’3 pf can you name? Not many

    14. Z-man

      …the oft referred to Lady Jowles? naaah.

      …didn’t Trump once pretend to be someone else on a radio call-in show?

    15. 2FOR18, understands math

      Im at a point where it wouldn’t bother me if KP came back in December, showed he was healthy, and then we traded him to LA for Ball and Ingram.

    16. Z-man

      Strat, I don’t always agree with you about either NBA basketball or politics, but one thing I can say about you is that you put your money where your mouth is.

    17. 2FOR18, understands math

      @14 No, I wasn’t thinking that.

      And I believe he did. And if he didn’t I can totally see if.

    18. Z-man

      Regardless of position, the three closest physical comparisons to KP (that had star power coming in to the NBA) are Shawn Bradley, Ralph Samson and Kareem. Dirk has a lower center of gravity and a bit more meat on the bone. So it’s hard to tell, pretty wide range of outcomes.

    19. NahNahNahWeAreGoingTheOtherWay

      @ 11. M. Knight Shyamalan Twist. I back Jowles because he makes good points.

      @ 12. Sounds like your point is that the Knicks didn’t pick the fan favorite. That is different than going outside the consensus ranking. It also doesn’t prove that the Knicks are good at drafting.

    20. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Lady Jowles is definitely my #1 fan, and has a stats degree from Utah, but thankfully, no law school for her. Her brother is an IP attorney in SLC and she wouldn’t trade her life for his for any amount of money. She also would never post here, even if I bribed her with Lagavulin 16-year and Moonstruck truffles.

      Porzingis is still all upside. Good rim protector and a unique skillset on offense. Poor shooting efficiency and a bad rebounder for a PF/C of his size. I don’t know what else there is to say about Porzingis except that the Knicks are probably about to give him $195M on a hunch.

      I agree that WCS has far less trade value (and isn’t all that great of a player), so I’d rather have Porzingis, since freakish athleticism/size is value that stays. But a significantly better player? Nah.

    21. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      I’d rather have Mitchell Robinson than WCS, too. Better contract, 4 years younger, and a solid player, but hasn’t proven worthy of the #6 pick — much like his trade-value equal, Mr. Porzingis and his respective draft slot. He’s not a bust, but he’s a backup NBA center at this point. I wouldn’t hold my breath for him to suddenly become Tyson Chandler 2.0, even though that looked like his ceiling a few years ago. Like Porzingis, he has not lived up to the pre-draft expectations.

    22. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      Assuming KP comes back healthy mentally and physically, it will be interesting to see what Fizdale can do with a 7′ 3″ player that can hit 40% from 3, 80% from the FT line, has enough athleticism and length to get up and catch alley oops from well above or to the left or right of the rim, and can slam home put-back offensive rebounds. If KP gets stronger (which he should over time) he should even be able to finish better around the rum instead of always fading away. If Fizdale can’t create a high efficiency scorer out of that skill set either he’s a bad coach or KP is not very smart.

    23. Totes McGoats as Totes McGoats

      I know everyone here watches the Knicks. But have you ever watched the Knicks ON WEEEED?! Holy shit dude it’s like the best thing ever

      LOL

      Please someone get that reference please someone get that reference

    24. Donnie Walsh

      But if you insist on believing there’s a LOT of skill to it, the Knicks made a trade in order to land Hernanagomez. He’s one of the few players drafted in that 2nd round to still be in the NBA.

      This is kind of misleading as there are actually a lot of players from that 2nd round class that have played more minutes in the league than WHG (Montrezl Harrell, Norm Powell, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connoughton, Andrew Harrison), as well as a bunch of other guys still hanging on (like Willy).

      But that actually plays to the greater point: it’s a crap shoot, and the best way to increase your chances of success is to make a lot of picks, even second rounders.

    25. J Weezy

      I know everyone here watches the Knicks. But have you ever watched the Knicks ON WEEEED?! Holy shit dude it’s like the best thing ever

      LOL

      Please someone get that reference please someone get that reference

      I wanna talk to Samson!

    26. J Weezy

      Like Porzingis, he has not lived up to the pre-draft expectations.

      Wasn’t one of the expectations that KP would take a few years to develop his body before he could produce to his predicted ceiling? Next year will be the year where we should know whether he’ll eventually reach ‘superstardom’ or not.

    27. GianaDani

      Gotta be kidding me with KP. Can he get stronger? Really?

      All he does is work out! Came back year three much stronger! Tore up the league putting up 40 a game during first month; Made all-star team. Leaving us to .500 ball. Then only petson on that team that can play a little, THjr goes down and we were still within reach of playoffs. Then He went down with season ending injury. This injury is causing him to slow his ability to gain bulk because he needs to keep the pounds off his knee but his core is infinitely stronger.

      Having KP is a blessing; it’s making KD, Kyrie, Butler etc…at the very least consider New York and maybe even drule at the idea of joining him.

      No one gets equal value when trading a player like KP.

    28. geo

      5 televised games on espn/tnt… probably another 4 or 5 that’ll show up on nbatv…

      plus the 4 games involving the clippers and lakers…

      not too bad, considering how poor of a record they had last year, and, how poor of a record they’re predicted to have for the upcoming season…

      it’s great being a yankee fan…feels like nearly half their games make it on national tv…

    29. JK47

      I dunno man, KP did the same thing he always does: came out and played like a Hall Of Famer for like 11 games, then massively regressed.

      First 11 games: .614 TS%
      Next 37 games: .511 TS%

      If you look at his game log, you can see the exact moment when he pooped out, it was the November 13 game against Cleveland.

    30. dtrickey

      I know everyone here watches the Knicks. But have you ever watched the Knicks ON WEEEED?! Holy shit dude it’s like the best thing ever

      LOL

      Please someone get that reference please someone get that reference

      You ever see the back of a $20 bill……on weeeeeeed? Is there a guy in the bushes? I don’t know man!?!

      I wanna talk to Samson!

      Doctor says I need a backiatomy.

      I can’t tell you how many times I watched Half-Baked as a teenager.

    31. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Whenever I’m visibly sore from lifting weights or basketball, and someone mentions it, I say, “Doctor says I need a backiotomy.” Can’t recall if anyone has ever noted the reference, but it’s one of my favorite TV movies from the prime Comedy Central era.

      Fun fact: the original script of that movie was far darker and more adult. The studio forced Chappelle to rewrite it to be a stoner movie for preteens, which is exactly what it was for me.

    32. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      Having KP is a blessing; it’s making KD, Kyrie, Butler etc…at the very least consider New York and maybe even drule at the idea of joining him.

      I consider it the opposite, for two reasons:

      (1) He’s not a real star, so anyone who comes to play next to him will be confused when the team still isn’t good. It also can fake a franchise into thinking their window is (lol) right now. Similar to how Amar’e wasn’t the “second superstar,” yet they made moves as if this were the opportunity to be a contender. It wasn’t.

      Considering how many people think Kyrie, Butler or an aging Durant will turn this franchise around (they won’t), I’d say we’re already on this timeline.

      He has not proven himself to be the franchise savior, so we shouldn’t treat him like one.

      (2) There’s an enormous social cost to letting him walk, or trading him for assets, even better assets, that don’t immediately provide a return perceived as equal or greater.

      Example: Let’s say they trade Porzingis for Otto Porter and a future 1st. Porter is a much better player by all available metrics, but he’s not considered a superstar, and draft picks may still be considered lesser assets than young “upside” prospects. The Knicks would be laughed at by opposing fanbases and scorned by their own, even though Porter is objectively a better and more valuable NBA player.

    33. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      I’ve been reading the debate over the Knicks’ drafting prowess with interest. I tend to agree with the people who think the Knicks have drafted well, or at least not badly. But Jowles did actually cite a statistic, and it’s not a statistic I know very well, so I did a little digging. I downloaded the VORP values for every NBA player last season from basketball-reference.com. I then calculated a mean and a median and did a histogram. The distribution is quite skewed. The arithmetical average VORP is 0.46. I think people tend to assume the numerical average player is a typical player, but the median VORP is actually zero, because the distribution is so skewed. That is, literally half of NBA players have a VORP of zero or below. The most common VORP is zero or slightly below. The mean value of 0.46 is actually the 70th percentile player. That means that in terms of percentiles, the VORPs that Jowles cited are as follows:

      Porzingis 1.2 (84th percentile)
      Shumpert 0.9 (78th percentile)
      Early -0.5 (4th percentile)
      Fields 1.7 (89th percentile)
      Hardaway 0.9 (78th percentile)
      Hernangomez (drafted for the Knicks by PHI) 0.7 VORP (73th percentile)

      So even averaging Early in, our picks were significantly better than most NBA players using VORP as a yardstick

      I draw two conclusions from this data. One, the Knicks did draft well, or at least, not badly at all. Two, the stat VORP is named misleadingly. It purports to be “value over replacement player”. That should mean if you have a VORP of zero, a D league call up would be just as good. But if that were true, the actual statistics say that literally half of the NBA could be replaced with G league call ups and the league would get better. I don’t think anyone here believes that to be the case.

    34. J Weezy

      @36

      Is there any player that is available via free agency (player option also) next summer that you believe would be worth it for the Knicks to max out or offer significant cap space. IMO, the best bang for your dollar, max contract wise, is probably a healthy Kawhi. A four year deal for him next summer would take him to age 32.

    35. dtrickey

      IMO, the best bang for your dollar, max contract wise, is probably a healthy Kawhi. A four year deal for him next summer would take him to age 32.

      I think if you are talking about value for money and it hinges on x player being healthy, then it probably isn’t super great value. I would class Kawhi as high risk, high reward. I guess end of the day every contract’s value hinges on player health, but if there are red flags before said contract, then I think you are moving out of the realm of good value.

    36. J Weezy

      39

      If KL plays 78 games this season, plays up to par for his career on offense and defense, that would be good enough for me to determine whether health would be a factor in offering him a four year max deal. Obviously injuries happen, but that’s the risk with guaranteed contracts in professional sports.

    37. GianaDani

      Some of you guys are impossible. Heavily scared from decades of poor free agent signings – so I understand, but if Kyrie is 100% healthy in May/June, then his team is going to at least EC finals. When it’s time to separate boys from men, Kyrie drops 40 plus!!!!!

    38. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      That is, literally half of NBA players have a VORP of zero or below

      This isn’t surprising. VORP is a counting stat, so even good players can have very low VORPs if they never play. Your conclusion that half the league could be replaced with G-Leaguers to improve is a misreading of the data. If the G-Leaguers replaced end-of-bench minutes, you wouldn’t see much of a difference at all.

      It’s not surprising that Porzingis rates higher (in VORP percentile) than most other NBA players — few players are allowed to play as much as he does.

    39. dtrickey

      If KL plays 78 games this season, plays up to par for his career on offense and defense, that would be good enough for me to determine whether health would be a factor in offering him a four year max deal. Obviously injuries happen, but that’s the risk with guaranteed contracts in professional sports.

      Considering KP isn’t going to back until sometime in 2019, I think 78 games this season might be a stretch unless he pulls a lazarus and is ready on opening night. Nevertheless, I appreciate the sentiment.

    40. dtrickey

      Apologies for @45. I read KL as KP. Didn’t have my glasses on! The point @40 makes more sense now.

    41. bobneptune

      If KL plays 78 games this season, plays up to par for his career on offense and defense, that would be good enough for me to determine whether health would be a factor in offering him a four year max deal.

      Hmmmm… While every sane fan and NBA Executive loves KL, guess who played 78 games his first season with the Knicks at a plus all-star level before falling into rapid decline with a serious injury history (and KL’s injury has to be deemed serious) and maybe/probably chronic……

      I’ve never heard of a professional athlete missing 5 months with just a quad injury.

    42. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      Jowles, it’s not exactly a counting stat, since counting stats can’t actually be negative and many players have a negative VORP, but it doesn’t really matter. You chose it as the stat to evaluate Knicks draft picks by, and claimed the numbers you showed represented poor results for Knicks drafting. I just figured out how it compared to the typical NBA player. My main conclusion was that the VORP stats you cited don’t indicate that the Knicks draft badly.

      Of course, if you replace some NBA player who never plays with a G-Leaguer, it won’t affect the quality of league play. But 2/3 of players on NBA rosters usually see reasonable playing time during a season (eight to ten players are in a regular rotation and then injuries add numbers to this). That leave only 5 players per team you could change with a D-Leaguer and have no effect. So you can’t change half the players in the NBA without actually affecting who plays. I guess you could claim that NBA bench warmers are the actual “replacement players” in the NBA (which would be far from the original definition), but, from the statistics I looked at, probably all of them are in the negative as far as VORP goes. If the numerical value of a “replacement player” is significantly below zero, then it’s still labeled in a basically lying way as far as I am concerned.

      I will also comment that I didn’t say that you could replace half the players in the league with G leaguers and not see a change. That is a complete mis-statement of what I said. I said that the literal reading of the name of the stat would suggest you could do this.

    43. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      I listened to Maggie rant on James Dolan and I have say, that I, who am very thick skinned, just think she was awful. She thinks that Anucha Brown Sanders was comparable to the victims of Harvey Weinstein? How can she say that? And she thinks it horrible that some guy confesses regret in a personal song? It’s completely possible that Weinstein didn’t confess crimes to a friend, but instead boasted how woman liked him. Being a friend, that friend believed him. What’s not reasonable is that people who worked with Weinstein and arranged meetings with women for him didn’t so something, not that Dolan didn’t do anything.

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