Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Knicks Morning News (2017.10.11)

  • [NYPost] Frank Ntilikina is impressing the Knicks, even from his couch
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 5:26:49 PM)

    Frank Ntilikina spent Friday night on his own, resting his sore right knee. But the Knicks rookie guard didn’t treat it like a night off, a chance to go out on the town in his new city. Ntilikina not only sat on his couch and watched the Knicks face the Wizards in Washington, but also…

  • [NYPost] Here are the Knicks’ new ad-affixed jerseys
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 8:15:44 AM)

    The Knicks’ infatuation with geometric shapes remains strong. After running the archaic offensive system known as the triangle in recent years, they haver partnered with a square — Squarespace, Inc., to be exact. The web content publishing company, based in New York City and founded in 2003 by then college student Anthony Casalena, will partner…

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: Traffic Cones and High-Fives: A Glimpse Behind the Warriors’ Curtain
    (Wednesday, October 11, 2017 6:00:23 AM)

    For three days, a college coach from Texas was allowed to watch the N.B.A. champions practice up close. Not everything was complicated, he learned.

  • [NYTimes] Q&A: What if a Bear Took an N.B.A. Star’s Place? Shea Serrano Has an Answer
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 9:00:24 AM)

    The author and humorist behind the best-selling “The Rap Year Book’’ takes on basketball in an illustrated book that asks and answers a lot of questions.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks add Squarespace advertising patch to uniform
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 11:25:53 AM)

    The Knicks became the latest team to add an advertisement to their uniform, announcing a partnership with Squarespace on Tuesday morning.

  • [NYDN] Knicks jerseys to be sponsored by Squarespace
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 7:22:08 AM)

    Forget the Triangle

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks add Squarespace as team’s first jersey sponsor
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 7:10:02 PM)

    The Knicks have joined the jersey sponsor bandwagon.

  • [ESPN] Knicks latest team to wear ad on uniform
    (Tuesday, October 10, 2017 10:48:23 AM)

    Knicks latest team to wear ad on uniform

  • 73 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2017.10.11)

    1. ess-dog

      Our “depth” at center is sort of worthless once you realize that we’re even worse there positionally than most teams. The Bucks have Maker, Hassan in Miami… even Howard in Charlotte rivals what we have. And we might start Kanter night after night?! A Kanter trade would be amazing, but no one is desperate for a center that can’t defend, not even a team like Orlando. I love what Willy has shown, but so far it’s only about average as a starter.

      There’s just not much hope for this team. I’m guessing TH2 tops out as a borderline starter – meaning one of the worst starting sgs in the league. Sf is still a black hole, and Porzingis still has a lot to prove. I honestly expect about 27 wins from this team, tops.

      And that is good! Doncic would be gold for us, and then we can hold out real hope for a core of Frank, Kristaps and Doncic. In the meantime, I hope we see a lot of Frank/Dotson/McD/KP/Willy just so the young guys can get reps. Bring on the Tank.

    2. mase

      I don’t think we will be as bad as we have looked in preseason..
      We are in a transitional phase and we are rebuilding, two things happening

    3. swiftandabundant

      We’re gonna suck at the beginning. The hardest game will be opening night when Melo scores 35 and OKC destroys us. The media is going to howl in delight and go on and on about how stupid we were to get rid of him and how we wasted Melo’s talents, etc. That’s going to be the worst.

      Then it will slowly get better.

    4. Totes McGoats Makes 18mil For 14ppg

      Call me crazy, but I like the Burke signing- only because it gives us another young guy with 1st round pedigree to look at. I was excited about Jarrett Jack but he clearly has lost a couple of steps. Maybe this means Jack is gone, or it is just another body at the 1 since Ntilikina is “resting”. Still- I wouldn’t mind going into the regular season with Burke on the roster. If Mills is going to make another trade, it would be nice if he can do it now. That way we go into the season with what we have without putting team chemistry through a challenge by making an in-season trade.

    5. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Trey Burke and his .516 eFG% and .443 3PT% are welcome on this roster. Especially at the point guard position. The addition of Burke gives the Knicks at least one player at every position with an eFG% over .500. Burke, Hardaway Jr, Lee, McDermott, Beasley, KP, O’Quinn, Hernangomez, and Kanter all fit into that category.

      Our defense is going to be terrible, but getting buckets won’t be a problem this year.

    6. ClashFan

      Burke’s three point shooting spiked last year, so that may regress.

      Apparently he was close to signing with OKC a few weeks ago but backed out for some reason.

    7. Bruno Almeida

      we’re tanking anyway, Burke is a nice addition. Bad but young and has some pedigree, much rather take a chance on him than on Jack, who provides nothing else other than being a veteran which is redundant with Sessions.

    8. ess-dog

      Yeah, we didn’t need Jack AND Sessions, although Burke hasn’t been very good. Maybe he can play some defense?

    9. ClydesCowSuit

      There’s just not much hope for this team.

      What should we be hoping for? Have you had “much hope” for us to win a championship within the last 10 years? I feel more hopeful about this team than any in the recent past…hope is no longer relative to wins, speculative trades or waiting for years to tick off a contract. Clearly, the goal is not to win the playoffs and instead to develop some type of identity as a team that is NOT centered on Melodrama. I can 1000% get on board with that as what I’m “hoping” for. It’s astonishing to me how quickly the miserable experience of rooting for a team with no direction can fade from people’s memory.

      Narrative shoved down our throat each year since 2000:
      Preseason: “anything an happen”. Maybe this year will be different, we’re 0-0!
      First weeks: acknowledgement that anything can’t happen.
      Shortly thereafter: we’re maxing out at a middling seed in a playoffs
      First month: btw, other playoff teams will wipe the court with us in 7 games
      Sometime later: we might have a chance at a low playoff seed if we put a run together
      At the least beneficial moment: this draft has a lot of intriguing talent!

      Maybe 2012 wasn’t that exactly…but it was still a version of deluding ourselves that the Knicks could have a chance to take down a Heat team they had no business with. I’m ready to just watch a season of basketball, root for effort, watch growth and let the chips fall where they may.

    10. d-mar

      Re: Burke – good signing. I’d much rather watch him suck than Jarrett Jack.

      Also, going back to Jowles comment about overrated OKC, has anyone taken a look at their bench? Raymond Felton, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Singler? Good luck playing Westbrook, PG13 and Melo 40+ minutes a night.

    11. ClashFan

      @17
      That’s what’s interesting about the trades for George and Melo. The media’s take is that they got those two guys for basically nothing. But that “nothing” was pretty much their entire bench.

      But hey, it’s now a super team, so who cares? OKC doesn’t look to me like a serious competitor for the likes of GS and Houston, but we’ll see.

    12. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      OKC should be fine. They can stagger the line ups so that one of PG, Melo, and Russ are always on the floor. They will probably struggle in the regular season but come post season time that’s a team that will give loads of headaches. And you never know what Alex Abrines will develop into.

    13. Z-man

      OKC’s bench was equally bad last year and their starting lineup outside of Westbrook was lousy. barring injury (especially to RW) I can’t see them winning less than 50 games. Westbrook is the closest thing to LeBron in terms of single-handed impact on W-L record in the league, and despite their warts, PG and Melo are better players than what they gave up, all of whom had a sub .100 WS48 except for the worst defensive big in the league.

      My guess is that two of the big 3 are on the floor the vast majority of the time. Russ avgs 37 mpg, PG 35 MPG and Melo 32 MPG.

    14. ptmilo

      I think OKC is significantly improved and deeper than last year, but still a bit thin. I think PG is an upgrade to Oladipo and Melo is and upgrade to Kanter. McD and Sabonis were replacement level players and their losses are irrelevant. Patterson is better than replacement level and should actually help their depth a little. They played like a 43 win team last year so 54 would be a big improvement. But that 50-56 range sounds about right to me. They seem like a top 10 defense and can roll out a ferocious stopper lineup of Westbrook/PG/Roberson/PP/Adams when needed. They still have some shitty guys in their rotation, but they seem pretty tough to me.

    15. ClashFan

      @23
      No problem. The Knicks can now trade Burke to them for a 2nd round pick! Or better yet, how about Jack?
      :-)

    16. lavor postell

      I’m guessing TH2 tops out as a borderline starter – meaning one of the worst starting sgs in the league.

      Honestly, that position is so weak around the league I think that he’s already an average starting 2. He needs to improve to be worth the contract, but 2 guard is probably the weakest position in depth leaguewide.

    17. Z-man

      I mean, OKC really wanted Trey Burke, so there’s your answer about their bench.

      Not true. They offered him a non-guaranteed contract.

    18. stratomatic says you can't play defense if you keep getting players than can't defend

      You know we are getting desperate when a guy on his way to the G League is being considered an upgrade to what we have at PG now.

      Sessions was OK as a backup PG, but he wasn’t an especially good backup at his best. He also may have lost a step.

      If Jack makes the team he’ll probably have his moments scoring, but he’s done.

      Baker may still wind up being out best PG until Nitti is ready to take over.

      Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings would be an upgrade.

    19. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Derrick Rose would not be an upgrade because he would refuse to play in a team concept and would consistently look off KP in pursuit of his own offense. Brandon Jennings would be nice, though.

    20. er

      ” @17
      That’s what’s interesting about the trades for George and Melo. The media’s take is that they got those two guys for basically nothing. But that “nothing” was pretty much

      But hey, it’s now a super team, so who cares? OKC doesn’t look to me like a serious competitor for the likes of GS and Houston, but we’ll see.

      —-Actually the OKC young guys have looked decent.

      Grant looks like he’s gotten alot better, Huestis looks like a 3 and D guy, Furguson is a 19 yr old 3 and D guy with alotta upside and along with patterson the Shooter Abrines hasn’t played. This team will be devestating.

    21. mase

      Oh yea, not looking forward to opening the season against OKC.

      I like the Trey Burke pick up, a former lottery pick that’s looking to stay in the NBA he has a good opportunity to play with a developing young core and create a new beginning.

    22. Early Bird

      Burke probably won’t help much, but PG’s can be late bloomers and how much worse can he really be than the corpses of Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack or Ron Baker?

    23. JK47

      The thing that is alarming about Burke is his pathetic, miniscule free throw rate. He averaged 1.5 free throw attempts per 36 minutes last year. That just screams “I have no athleticism.”

      He’s still a decent pickup as a third PG on a bad team, that is actually his ideal role. I doubt he has much upside unless he can sustain his flukey-looking 3PT shooting from last year.

    24. Frank

      Ugh – Thibs and Minnesota just signed Wiggins to a 5 year $148MM extension. They won’t “regret” it in that they’ll lock him up for his prime and not his decline, but he is definitely not a $30MM/year player. And then what are they going to do with Butler and then Towns? Butler will be up for a max contract and Towns will be up for his own max extension at the same time. They’ll be paying $90MM (which’ll be close to 90% of the cap) to 3 players!

    25. Bruno Almeida

      Yeah, Burke looked like a mid range chucker much more than a competent PG and hes definitely not athletic enough to start or anything, but we already know Jack is nothing better than that and he’s 10 years younger. He won’t amount to much but if he managed become a good 3pt shooter he could be a useful player down the line. He shot well in very limited attempts in Washington at least.

      I won’t get into the Melo debate again because thank god he’s gone, but I’ll take the under on OKC quite happily. The west is super deep and there are almost no free wins outside of Phoenix and maybe Sacramento or the Lakers.

    26. rama in the JING

      Does Thibs see something none of us can see? Is Wiggins doing things in practice that haven’t shown up in games yet? Because you’d think a coach would understand why his team was losing and then as GM would not throw money at one of the people causing the problem.

    27. ptmilo

      It’s amazing how similar Wiggins’ age 19,20 and 21 years were. It’s a rare player who has three consecutive years quite that similar, let alone at such a young age. The only notable disparity is better shooting from 16+ feet last year, which is naturally volatile but could also be improvement. Look at those free throw percentages and steals and assists per 36!

    28. Ntilakilla

      That article on Frank is an insightful one. I just love that the kid is a diligent high IQ type player who eats, breathes and sleeps basketball. The really great teams like San Antonio and Golden State always have several of those guys on their rosters.

    29. Owen

      Wiggins contract baffling. He may make the hump this year but he’s never been good. Every year you think the NBA is getting smarter but every year something goes down like this.

    30. Bruno Almeida

      We joke a lot about the pointzz etc, but that’s the extent of analysis on some of those front offices.

      He scored a lot of points = star
      He’s young = has potential

      Max contract.

    31. thenamestsam

      This is a really nice breakdown on Wiggins from Kevin Pelton (insider required). He basically found that Wiggins is practically comp-less in terms of guys who were such prolific volume scorers at such a young age while being so mediocre overall. Despite many making “pointz!” into a bogeyman, there actually isn’t that large a pool of guys who are great scorers while being completely unproductive players. What blows my mind about Wiggins given his obvious athletic gifts is the terrible defensive and rebounding numbers. If he can figure out how to do those things he’d be a productive NBA player, even with middling offensive efficiency. If he could do those things and stop taking so many bad shots (41% on catch and shoot 3s last year, 27.3% on pull-ups) then you’d really be getting somewhere.

      That’s a lot of ifs for $150M though which really highlights how bad the deal is. Even if they’re able to mold him into the player that you can kind of wishcast (the hopeful version of forecast) him into, he would still basically be fairly paid rather than some kind of bargain. The team has all of the risk here and almost no hope for excess returns.

    32. MSA

      Does anyone here really think that KP will not get a max contract soon regardless of results or improvement?

      That’s how it works in the NBA.

    33. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      From what I’ve seen, Russell, Crabbe, Carroll, Booker, and Mozgov is better than at least New York, Dallas, Atlanta, Indiana, Sacramento, Chicago, and Orlando. Sean Marks is a really good GM.

    34. Jack Bauer

      Agree – The Nets will be better than the Knicks and probably some other teams this year. Those odds seem out of wack (for the Nets prediction not the Knicks).

      It’s nice to see other teams becoming the poster children for bad contracts (Embid & Wiggins) instead of the Knicks name automatically coming up in the that discussion.

    35. Cock Jowles, #1 League-Average Superstar

      The Wiggins contract would be the worst in the league if he weren’t 22, so there’s that. We’ll be paying Lee and Noah what he makes next year, only there are plenty of teams that would trade for Wiggins, hoping they have the secret sauce that turns terrible volume scorers into efficient stars. (Spoiler: they’ll fail.)

      Embiid is a crazy overpay on the back of a tiny sample of exceptional, yet flawed, play. No idea why they didn’t wait for his RFA offers to come in before making that commitment. If Simmons and Fultz end up being real stars, and Joel “Andrew “Greg Oden” Bynum” Embiid hamstrings their cap situation while they’re within their competitive window, it could go down as one of the worst deals in league history. Wondering what they are doing in the language to mitigate that risk.

    36. TheOakmanCometh

      The Wolves and Sixers should have waited. They could always match any offer next offseason in restricted free agency. Are the fragile Embiid or the underwhelming Wiggins really going to refuse to sign a long term deal next offseason to get to unrestricted free agency? Very very unlikely.

    37. KnickfaninNJ

      Apparently, not very much. There are some team opt outs for injuries, but only for injuries to the same places he already injured, and he has to miss at least 25 games or play less than a certain number of minutes for the 76ers to be able to exercise that option. I dont like the contract, But at least if he stays on the court enough, he’s probably worth the money. I can’t say the same about Wiggins’ contract.

    38. TheOakmanCometh

      It’s very likely that we’re giving Porzingis the same extension next offseason, regardless of how he performs this year.

    39. KnickfaninNJ

      I am no doctor, But I am very worried about Ntilikina’s knee. According to the Post article, it’s the same issue he had in the French league at the end of the season and the knee swelled up aftet use. That sounds more like a cartilige problem than a bruise.

    40. stratomatic says you can't play defense if you keep getting players than can't defend

      I won’t get into the Melo debate again because thank god he’s gone, but I’ll take the under on OKC quite happily. The west is super deep and there are almost no free wins outside of Phoenix and maybe Sacramento or the Lakers.

      That’s the dilemma for me.

      I think OKC is going to have one the top few defenses in the league and they certainly aren’t going to have trouble scoring with Westbrook, George, and Melo all being able to create and probably getting better shots with Westbrook as PG. The problem is that they could be a a notch below a great team, but with the west as deep as it is, they could still not get the over because there’s is an all time great team and other excellent teams in the mix. There is ZERO question in my mind that if they stay healthy they have a chance to be close to great if they fill out the bench better.

    41. er

      @Jowles

      Yes I think they said it’s the most complicated contract in history. So philly may have some sort of out. The expert take on the contract was that it would be bad for the goodwill to let him go to RFA so idk.

    42. ptmilo

      they can get out of a big chunk of the Embiid deal if his injury is a recurrence of one of his previous injury spots as long as he plays under 1600 minutes bc of it; but they have to cut him to do it.

    43. TheOakmanCometh

      Wiggins had 4.2 WAR last year to Embiid’s 1.9. Of course he did it in 4 times as many minutes.

    44. stratomatic says you can't play defense if you keep getting players than can't defend

      From what I gather, the Embiid contract has some injury protections written into it. Without knowing the details, it’s hard to be too critical. The issue in not whether his talent warrants the contract. IMO that’s a mortal lock. He had a huge impact on both ends. It’s the injury history.

    45. TheOakmanCometh

      @54

      Teams always say that, but it’s kind of bogus. The reality is a player has to take a big risk to get to free agency. Goodwill or bad, nobody with Embiid’s health record is going to do that. I think the agents threaten these GMs until they fold, but it’s mostly empty threats.

    46. stratomatic says you can't play defense if you keep getting players than can't defend

      I bet the “over” on Brooklyn. So far, that’s my only bet of the year. Still contemplating a few others.

    47. er

      @ strat

      I think the “under” talk is melo hate on this site. That team is really really good on defense. Their offense hasn’t even been that good in the PS partly being due to a new team and partly because 2 key offensive players haven’t played (Abrines and Patterson) and Russ has only played 2 games. But the length at the wings is super impressive. Roberson and George and Grant on the wings is probably the most formidable defensive wing group in the league. Adams has looked awesome defensively and on the boards and in PNR. I think they will easily win 50 games and 55 is not a stretch. They will kill bad teams just on the strength of the defense and russ going superNova. If Melo and PG are just above average offensively that team will be great. I wouldn’t bet either way on the line because 55 is actually a perfect number. For fucks sake they held the nuggets under 90 points last night. I think there will be a lot of salty people on this board watching the thunder this year.

    48. stratomatic says you can't play defense if you keep getting players than can't defend

      KP is 100% getting maxed.

      Which is why he better be the real deal or we are screwed for another decade.

    49. TheOakmanCometh

      Also, only a few teams have max cap room next offseason to even offer huge deals to Wiggins and Embiid. And almost every team in the league is overstocked with centers, which further limits the suitors for Embiid.

    50. stratomatic says you can't play defense if you keep getting players than can't defend

      @er

      I agree on all points regarding OKC.

      I hope you are right about Brooklyn. I didn’t make a huge bet for me, but I think it’s a good one and want to cash. :-)

    51. DRed

      Embiid was probably somewhat overrated when he played last year, but that’s pretty much because he turned the ball over way too much. So for him to be really good he has to stay healthy and cut down on turnovers. I can’t say anything about this health, but it’s pretty easy to imagine scenarios in which Embiid learns to turn it over less. Wiggins has to shoot better (not a stretch), learn to pass, figure out how to rebound, and become a much better defender. That’s a lot less likely. So even if he improves his scoring efficiency he’s not going to be worth close to the money he’s getting paid. He’ll essentially be Tim Hardaway Jr.

    52. Donnie Walsh

      He scored a lot of points = star

      To be fair, front offices don’t really decide who a star is. It’s a combination of hype, exposure, and pointz.

      Front offices can choose to alienate the fans that pay their money to watch their favorite players play, or give out contracts like the Wiggins one, and the DeRozan one, and all those other ones that come from the teams that traditionally struggle to compete in free agency.

    53. Bruno Almeida

      It’s not Melo hate for me, I sincerely wish all the best for him. I just dont see how Melo + PG + all the other deals will make up 6 more wins in an incredibly competitive west.

      Ignoring the fact that that they could struggle or not improve by 6 whole wins could be seen as homerism too, actually.

    54. er

      I’m not disagreeing on the win totals lime I said. I was talking about it being a “long season”. I watched the games and that is a he’ll of a defensive team. I would be stunned if they win less than 50 if healthy

    55. Cock Jowles, #1 League-Average Superstar

      Lmao Embiid. The man had 20 and 7 in 11mins. GooD deal?

      If you hit on 19 and you’re dealt a 2, does that make it smart?

      Five-year contract. We’ll see.

    56. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      Still can’t believe the Yankees completed the comeback what a series

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