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Thursday, June 22, 2017

Knicks Morning News (2017.06.19)

  • [NYTimes] N.B.A. Teams Covet a New Breed of Big Man in the Draft
    (Sunday, June 18, 2017 4:02:35 PM)

    Ten years after Portland selected Greg Oden over Kevin Durant, teams are placing greater value on players with size who are nimble and versatile. Point guards will also attract attention in 2017.

  • [NYTimes] Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird, W.N.B.A. Stars, Keep Longtime Friendship
    (Monday, June 19, 2017 4:37:26 AM)

    With Taurasi breaking multiple career records this season and Bird closing in on her own, their relationship — between teammates and then rivals — has endured.

  • [NYTimes] Diana Taurasi Breaks W.N.B.A. Scoring Record
    (Monday, June 19, 2017 12:36:28 AM)

    With a layup late in the first half of Sunday’s game between her Phoenix Mercury and the Los Angeles Sparks, Taurasi passed Tina Thompson’s record of 7,488 points in a career.

  • [NYTimes] Casper, Mattress Maker, Raises $170 Million and Plans I.P.O.
    (Monday, June 19, 2017 1:00:25 AM)

    The new financing comes from Target and other investors, as the three-year-old company prepares to eventually pursue an initial public offering.

  • [NYPost] Knicks’ dream draft pick has ‘Greek Freak’ talent: Szczerbiak
    (Sunday, June 18, 2017 5:17:55 PM)

    If guards Dennis Smith Jr., Malik Monk, Donovan Mitchell and Frank Ntilikina are on the board when the Knicks’ turn comes at No. 8 on Thursday, what would Wally Szczerbiak do? Wally would go French. Szczerbiak, the CBS college basketball analyst/MSG Network broadcaster, told The Post it’s a close call, but he’d nab the French…

  • 140 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2017.06.19)

    1. Totes McGoats

      I really want people to stop invoking Giannis’ name when talking about Ntilikina. Yea the guy has insane length, and is a young foreigner..but cmon! I’m ok with saying something like, “at his position with that length- he could have a defensive effect similar to Giannis once he grows into his role”. That would be awesome to have a guard with that length because no one wants to see a guard like that who WANTS to play defense as they’re trying to run an offense. But Giannis was a 6’9″ frontcourt player, not a 6’5″ point guard. Comparing him to Giannis is a bit too much pressure

    2. ess-dog

      I think if you take Frank, you need kind of a 1b ball handler on the court as well, and Lee isn’t really that. I’d like to bring Holiday back as well as draft another guard like Kennard. Randle is ok in a backup role but Baker is just not good enough, I’m afraid.

    3. Frank

      This really is a fascinating offseason.

      Just from a Knicks point of view, I hope Phil learned his lesson from the Derrick Williams/Afflalo moves — meaning we are obviously not going to contend this year so don’t waste cap room on useless moves. We’re going to have ~$20MM in cap space, and we have to use that to make unbalanced trades to add additional future assets, whether it be to absorb Rubio when Minnesota inevitably blows their cap space on someone like Kyle Lowry or Jrue Holiday, or to absorb Evan Turner (bleh) or more hopefully Moe Harkless with a 1st round pick.

      Another thing — was listening to the Dunc’d on podcast and they were talking about SG options for the Sixers. Not that I think the Sixers would want him in terms of their timeline to contention, but it is clear to me that Courtney Lee is (or at least should be) a big trade chip this offseason. I mean- they are talking about JJ Redick and Robert Covington making $17-20MM year, and Lee is probably going to be a better player for the remainder of his contract than those two guys — definitely in the case of Redick, and presumably in the case of Covington, since, Covington is mostly missing the “3” part from 3 and D.

      If I’m Detroit and I feel like I need to make some sort of playoff push this season, I’m strongly thinking about signing/trading KCP to get future assets, and then trading the #12 pick (which is thought to be just outside the top players of the draft) for Courtney Lee. SVG has been there for 3 years now and they are no better than they were, and I think KCP is extremely overrated. He’s a good defender but hasn’t really improved as a shooter at all at age 24. They’re talking about him getting a max offer in restricted FA and I think Detroit would be crazy to sign him to a $25MM/year offer.

      There literally are zero good SGs in free agency this year.

    4. english_knick

      @3 – totally agree. It’s kind of frustrating the last 24 hours watching the moves that will play out this summer start to define the power balance in the NBA.

      You’ve got GS out on top. Cleveland – with three all-stars having to contemplate win-immediately moves like renting PG13.

      Next tier – those who are close enough that an injury or other bit of luck could push them into contention, also looking for win-now moves. SA with CP3, Boston with Butler/Hayward/Griffin, maybe the Clippers.

      Then there are the young teams with upside who could be positioned for the post-GS/Cleveland era – Utah, twolves, Philly now, maybe even the lakers.

      And then in the middle – the teams who have really no line of sight to contending. Teams that are ‘three years away from being three years away’. We’re one of those – but with KP and Willu we’re better off than a lot of others in our group and could join the Philly group by next summer of we’re smart. Which means throwing every asset we have – vets, cap space being about it – at future assets. If by next summer we have one more long-term piece and another high pick we can start to be optimistic about the future.

    5. ess-dog

      Boston seems to have exactly what Indy would want for George (the 2 new firsts and Crowder) but is PG really enough of an upgrade from Crowder? Boston is in a weird spot because they don’t have any top their stars and have to wonder if guys like George or Heyward (or both?) are worth it. Meanwhile, what they really need the most is a guy just like KP.

    6. Frank

      Re: Ricky Rubio – it does really seem like Thibs just doesn’t want him. The market for PGs is going to be a buyer’s market, with Lowry and Teague now both likely to be on the market (in addition to the guys who are likely going to re-sign with their current teams – CP3, Curry, Holiday. If Hayward leaves Utah, then George Hill will probably be on the market too. And there are 5 supposedly great PGs in the draft that will fill other teams’ needs, with Fultz filling Philly’s need, Fox prob going to Sac, the Knicks probably getting someone like Ntilikina or even Dennis Smith, and Dallas getting one of those too. So if Thibs wants to get rid of Rubio, he’ll have to do it on our terms, not his.

      Speaking of FA PG glut, I wonder if Derrick Rose will even get a non taxpayer MLE level offer. A team I could imagine maybe taking a look at him (with a VERY team-friendly 1 year offer) might be San Antonio? They need what he brings offensively, and maybe with their shooting guru and defensive culture, they could mitigate his weaknesses. His brain might be unsalvageable though.

    7. Frank

      An offseason I’d love:

      Draft Ntilikina, Smith, or Monk. I assume Isaac will be gone. I can make a case for any of those 3. I’d prob prefer Ntilikina.

      We trade Courtney Lee ($11.7MM) for #12 ($2.3MM) and draft Mitchell/Kennard/Anunoby (prob in that order of preference) – this would have to be an agreed-upon trade that is consummated after DET does a S&T with KCP. That would free up about $9.5MM in extra cap space for us. (this is maybe too complicated to actually happen unless we take back bad contracts, which I would not prefer).

      We trade KOQ (~$4.1MM) to Portland for Harkless (9.7MM) + #20 ($1.5MM) and draft Justin Jackson/Terrence Ferguson (in that order of preference) – this would be a net MINUS ~$7MM in cap space for us.

      Draft wings in the 2nd round, whoever Gaines and co. thinks is good. Say maybe Davon Reed and Sindarius Thornwell.

      This leaves us with about $22MM in cap space. Here is where Phil needs to resist the temptation to throw that at bad players.

      I’d offer to take on Rubio’s contract for a 2nd round pick or two. That brings us down to about $10MM in space. Then I’d rent that space out to teams who want to sign players in FA, hopefully picking up a future first.

      So in total:

      Bigs: KP, Willy, Noah, Plumlee
      Wings: Melo, Lance Thomas, Kuzminskas, Thornwell, Reed, Harkless, Ndour, Justin Jackson
      Guards: Ntilikina, Baker, Rubio, #12 pick (Kennard/Mitchell), Randle

      and ideally an extra pick from the renting out of our residual cap space (and sending out a couple 2nd round picks for Rubio).

      Then you work on trading Melo. Prob would keep Lance Thomas as a “culture” guy. Kuzminskas is one of KP’s BFFs so you keep him, although he’s a minor trade chip given how cheap he is.

      Put a couple of the 2nd rounders (or Randle) on 2-way contracts.

      Voila. Offseason work done.

    8. english_knick

      Frank – love your offseason.

      I’d consider Giles with one of the picks. He’s the perfect conplement to KP – can chase stretch fours on the perimeter with KP defending the middle, but go inside on offense while KP stretches the floor. High risk but potentially a great pick.

      I also – sadly – think a couple of your moves are too optimistic. Agree the market for Rubio will be limited but I don’t think we’re getting him, plus assets, as a pure dump.

      I also think getting the least bad of portlands contracts and only giving them a small saving won’t cut it to also get a pick. I’d say the absolute best case, out of the park scenario is that between Lee, KOQ, Melo and cap space we maybe, just maybe have the wherewithal to snag Rubio and two additional picks in the mid-late first round range this year, plus maybe a future asset/young player with some remaining upside. That would still be a wonderful offseason to kick off a two or three year rebuild.

    9. Frank

      @8 perhaps you’re right. I especially think the Lee->Detroit trade is probably not realistic.

      I dunno. Maybe Lee for Rubio + the best of Minny’s or Miami’s 2nd round pick next year would work.

    10. english_knick

      Part of the issue is the timing of deals we might do. It’s very hard to see how Detroit can take Lee and not send back a couple of salaries – Boban and Johnson gets it done but are Detroit really going to give us a relatively recent lotto pick with some upside AND a pick to get Lee? We can’t really pre-agree a trade with them assumptive that they trade KCP, and anyway even trading him for nothing doesn’t create a Lee sized space under the cap.

      We can pre agree a deal with Portland because all it takes is agreeing to renounce rose.

      But we can really only take a Portland salary and also trade for Rubio if either we send salaries for Rubio – probably Lee, so no detroit deal – or if we can first trade Melo in a way that increases space. And my guess is our best bet to do that is to trade Melo later in the summer.

    11. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      We don’t need to go into purgatory rebuild mode. If we can add Rubio, draft well and maybe add a player or two in free agency we’ll be well on our way to greatness. There’s no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. We’re not that far away.

    12. Frank

      If we want to rebuild the right way, we need to look at 2019-20 as the first year we really make a push. these next 2 years should be collecting assets, avoiding (any more) bad contracts, building the right culture (both on-court and in the front office), and developing our young guys and draft picks.

      We are not close at all to being even a top tier eastern conference team.

    13. ess-dog

      Minny doesn’t need to make that trade. They can simply let Rubio’s contract expire. I think the trade will have to be a player and a pick for Rubio, basically flipping the pick we get from Portland (20?) to take Turner’s contract. So then you have Rubio mentoring Frank and maybe them playing together sometimes. Lee is gone to Minny, so you either start Turner at the 2 or go find another sg. Then you work on trading Melo. Idk how you can get another pick to grab Jackson at this point (you kind of still need Kyle), but you could always do the Portland trade for yourself and not get Rubio. But then you don’t have much in the way of guards so you really have to overpay a free agent.

    14. Frank

      Rubio’s contract expires after 2018-19. I guess Minny could let that expire but maybe they want his cap space for this year and next.

      No way in the world I send a player and a pick for Rubio. They’ve been trying to give him away for years and haven’t been able to, and the market for PGs is very saturated at this point.

    15. TheOakmanCometh

      We’re going to need a lot more than the #20 pick to take on Turner from Portland. Turner is a Top 10, maybe Top 5 worst contract in the league. He’s basically on Noah’s contract ($18m per for 3 more years) and is actually WORSE than Noah on the court (though he is healthier).

      For his career, Turner has a negative VORP, negative Plus/Minus, and a miniscule WS/48. He’s a bad shooter from 2-point range and a putrid shooter from 3-point range. He’s an average defender at best, but entering his age 29 season, he’s only going to slow down on that end.

      We would need a much better return package from Portland, something like #15 this year plus their Top 10 protected pick next year. They can also have KOQ.

    16. bobneptune

      There’s no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. We’re not that far away.

      Yeah….. there actually is. Phil need to liquidate any veteran asset (KOQ,Lee… whomever) to absolutely convince Me7o he needs to go. My recurring nightmare is he sticks around and bollixes up the mindset of the younger players. Getting the proverbial bucket of warm spit for him (and NEVER ROSE!) is the quintessential addition by subtraction.

      Bringing in a real player at #8 and maybe a lower first rounder or two should assuage KP’s ‘high anxiety’ on the direction of the team with a clear path moving forward.

    17. ess-dog

      It’s a good point about Turner, but I still think you need a first to get Rubio, even a very low one. Lee just doesn’t get it done imo. What is the point? He’s not nearly putting that team over the top. Maybe for a team like Houston or OKC but not Minny. I’m guessing the deal is there for one of those Portland contracts/picks, it’s just a matter of what else Jax wants to do.

    18. Donnie Walsh

      We would need a much better return package from Portland, something like #15 this year plus their Top 10 protected pick next year.

      I don’t be know… the gold standard of attaching draft picks to salary dumping was when Steve Kerr traded two 1st rounders to get rid of Kurt Thomas’s contract. Even Kerr calls this one of the worst trades of all time. And that trade was only for the #24 pick and #26 pick. (And it was in an age of longer contracts and a more restrictive salary cap).

      So, Phil could pull off a coup by getting multiple picks for Evan Turner (who is not particularly good, but not completely useless either), but I think that trades like that are alienating to a fan base, and Paul Allen is no Robert Sarver when it comes to saving a buck or two, so it’s not terribly realistic to hope for.

    19. ptmilo

      There’s a story out saying Iggy might consider leaving in free agency but the prospective team has to show a path to contention with the Warriors. I’d kind of like to see him go back to Philly instead; he’d be close to the ideal veteran presence and also a good basketball fit with their triplets.

    20. Cock Jowles, An Intriguing Physical Specimen with a High Ceiling

      A team I could imagine maybe taking a look at him (with a VERY team-friendly 1 year offer) might be San Antonio?

      Ahahahaha hahahahah is this some performance art that I don’t understand

      Seriously Derrick Rose will never be a part of a team that is grooming Kyle Anderson to be the 2020 Sixth Man of the Year

    21. ptmilo

      Also, the Warriors are obviously still ridiculous without him but that would not be a small loss. He’s aged incredibly well, but that can’t last for much longer so they’ll lose him pretty soon either way.

    22. Frank

      I really really don’t think that Ricky Rubio will net Minnesota a 1st round pick, or else Thibs would’ve done that a long time ago.

      and @THCJ – Pop (and Kawhi) was able to make Pau Gasol and David Lee look like passable defenders this year, and he’s been able to figure out how to hide Parker on defense forever. And with Parker out, SA needs someone to provide some dribble penetration, and that someone is not Patty Mills (I like Patty Mills but he is not a get-into-the-paint guy). It’s not totally ridiculous — I don’t think it’ll happen, but I don’t think it’s out of the question.

    23. Frank

      Re: Paul George – if I’m the Cavs you HAVE to trade Kevin Love for him (if Indy would accept that offer). I find it very hard to believe that George would come to the Cavs, play with Lebron in the NBA finals, and then decide to leave for a rebuilding Lakers team that at best would have a 2nd round ceiling during his 4 year contract. If anything he would take a 1+1 at the end of next season, then have the Lakers do that thing the Knicks always do which is give his big payday at age 30.

      Truth is – Kevin Love is a really good player but he’s pretty much wasted on the Cavs. They’ll get to the NBA finals with or without him the next 2 years, and he’s a defensive liability against GS.

    24. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      If we have to take on salary from Portland I’m hoping that we’ll take Harkless, even for a lower first round pick that could still net us a Josh Hart, Frank Jackson, Jordan Bell or Jonah Bolden.

    25. Cock Jowles, An Intriguing Physical Specimen with a High Ceiling

      Gasol, Lee, Parker, Mills and Rose.

      Re: teamwork, one of these things is not like the other…

    26. TheOakmanCometh

      I don’t be know… the gold standard of attaching draft picks to salary dumping was when Steve Kerr traded two 1st rounders to get rid of Kurt Thomas’s contract. Even Kerr calls this one of the worst trades of all time. And that trade was only for the #24 pick and #26 pick. (And it was in an age of longer contracts and a more restrictive salary cap).

      So, Phil could pull off a coup by getting multiple picks for Evan Turner (who is not particularly good, but not completely useless either), but I think that trades like that are alienating to a fan base, and Paul Allen is no Robert Sarver when it comes to saving a buck or two, so it’s not terribly realistic to hope for.

      That’s an interesting parallel to a potential Evan Turner trade. I checked out the numbers on that deal. Kurt Thomas had one year left at $8m, which at the time was 14% of the cap. Evan Turner has three years left on his contract, which eats about 17% of each season’s cap. So Turner’s contract is longer and more expensive per year.

      In addition, Kurt was a better player (4.1 Win Shares the year he was traded) than Turner (1.2 WS). Considering that Turner is owed much more money than Kurt was, both in total and on an annual basis, and is a less effective player than Kurt, Portland should have to pony up more assets than Phoenix did to trade Kurt. I agree with you that Phoenix made a dumb deal, but Turner is much more of an albatross than Kurt was.

    27. TheOakmanCometh

      The big wild card in any salary dump trade with Portland is Paul Allen’s appetite for spending. They are already $40m over the luxury tax. If they add anyone using the mid-level exception, that goes to $60m. if they extend Nurkic, who can be a free agent next year, that luxury tax bill explodes.

      Allen hasn’t been shy about spending in the past, but he’s still a businessman. Paying $60m in luxury tax alone (not to mention the actual salaries) for a fringe playoff team can’t be too appetizing. I think there’s a good chance he orders management to cut salary, which gives trade leverage to any team willing to accept those bad contracts.

      Turner is the worst contract they have. We have to ask for something big in exchange. Much bigger than the 20th pick.

    28. swiftandabundant

      I’d do KQ for Turner plus #15 and #20.

      Maybe that’s too steep, but we’d be taking on one of the worst contracts in the league and they would be getting a very serviceable back up big back.

    29. swiftandabundant

      I just hope Phil makes moves on draft day and we end up with one of Detroit or Portland’s first round picks (without giving up picks now or in the future though I’d be fine with one of our second rounders going out). If we end up with 2 of these first round picks I’d be very happy and if we somehow got all 3 I would be elated.

    30. TheOakmanCometh

      Here are the #20 picks since the Year 2000.

      2016 Caris LeVert
      2015 Delon Wright
      2014 Bruno Caboclo
      2013 Tony Snell
      2012 Evan Fournier
      2011 Donatas Motiejunas
      2010 James Anderson
      2009 Eric Maynor
      2008 Alexis Ajinca
      2007 Jason Smith
      2006 Renaldo Balkman
      2005 Julius Hodge
      2004 Jameer Nelson
      2003 Dahntay Jones
      2002 Kareem Rush
      2001 Brendan Haywood
      2000 Speedy Claxton

      Would you take on Turner’s horrible contract for a single one of these guys? Maybe Jameer Nelson. Maybe. And that’s a best-case scenario.

      In other words, if all Portland is offering is #20 to get us to take Turner, we should resoundingly refuse.

    31. Frank

      Gasol, Lee, Parker, Mills and Rose.

      Re: teamwork, one of these things is not like the other…

      Look – I agree with you about Rose — but when you’re SA and you don’t have a whole lot of flexibility to get better and you also have a gaping hole at PG, it’s something they have to look at IMO. The only ones who know whether they can right the ship on Rose are Pop, Buford, Kawhi, Parker, Ginobili, etc.

      (I imagine Gasol will have some thoughts as well — their CHI partnership didn’t go so hot)

    32. Frank

      Meanwhile the Mavs are hiring Ntilikina’s coach to be part of their summer league staff. Wonder whether someone has traded up past us to get him.

    33. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      @31 I believe that this is an extraordinarily deep draft, though. The 4 players that I mentioned above and many more could be long term assets for a team like our’s.

    34. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      @32 Frank, I can see Dallas possibly swapping with Minny and grabbing Ntilikina at #7. But that would still leave us DSJ, Monk, Kennard, Mitchell or Collins to choose from.

    35. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      I’ll predict
      Philly Fultz
      Lakers Ball
      Celtics Tatum
      Suns Isaac
      Kings Fox
      Magic Jackson
      Minny or Dallas Ntilikina
      Knicks DSJ

    36. Frank

      @30 – this is not a good argument. You really need to list all the players that were potentially available at 20, not just the ones that were actually picked at 20.

      Here are some of the players available at 20 —
      2001 – Gerald Wallace, Dalembert, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur

      2002 – Tayshaun Prince, Boozer, Matt Barnes, Rasual Butler, Luis Scola

      2003 – Dahntay Jones, Diaw, Delfino, Kendrick Perkins, Barbosa, JOsh Howard, Pachilia, Mo Williams, James Jones, Korver,

      2004- Jameer Nelson, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin, SASHA VUJACIC, Udrih, Varejao, Ariza

      2005 – Nate Robinson, Jarrett Jack, David Lee, Linas Kleiza, Ilyasova, Turiaf, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Gortat

      2006 – Rondo, Lowry, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Daniel Gibson, Dee Brown, Millsap

      2007 – Jason Smith, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler, Rudy Fernandez, Aaron Brooks, Afflalo, Splitter, Carl Landry, Big Baby, McRoberts, Marc Gasol, Ramon Sessions

      2008 (what a great year!) – Ajinca, Ryan Anderson, Courtney Lee, Koufos, Ibaka, Batum, George Hill, Darrell Arthur, Pekovic, Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Asik, Mbah a Moute, Dragic

      2009- Darren Collison, Casspi, Taj Gibson, Demarre Carroll, Wayne Ellington, Dante Cunningham, Dejuan Blair, Jerebko, Jodie Meeks, Patrick Beverley, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger, Danny Green

      2010 – Trevor Booker, Quincy Pondexter, Greivis Vasquez, Whiteside, Lance Stephenson

      etc etc (got too lazy to keep going)

      Some great players, mostly not great players, but there are a lot of NBA rotation players available at 20 and later. 2008 — wow — 8 guys drafted at 20 or later ended up signing gigantic contracts.

    37. Z-man

      I would probably pass on Evan Turner. Do we really need another grossly overpaid, low-efficiency, low-IQ chucker creating drama with the young guys for 3 years? At least Noah is a player-coach type who could thepretically give you some good minutes if he pulls an Antonio McDyess. Turner brings absolutely nothing.

      I know this is a deep draft and all, but most players picked #10-20 are fringe rotation types. I suppose I wouldn’t flip out if the trade is made, but chances are we’d regret it.

    38. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      “Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell will not meet with the Knicks on Monday, as has been reported. He is working out for the Dallas Mavericks on Monday in front of Donnie Nelson and his staff and is scheduled to work out for the Knicks on Tuesday and meet with Phil Jackson and his staff, according to sources familiar with the Knicks’ workout schedule. Mitchell has drawn strong interest from the Knicks and his workout could be the last one for the club before it makes its final decisions on the eighth pick. Also under consideration are French guard Frank Ntilikina, North Carolina State’s Dennis Smith Jr. and Kentucky guard Malik Monk, among others. Mitchell, who prefers to work out in a group setting to show teams his defensive skill set, will workout in a group setting along with Villanova’s Josh Hart – a potential second-round pick for NYK – and others, per sources.”

      Ian Begley

    39. d-mar

      Chad Ford was on NBA Radio this morning and compared Ntikilina to George Hill and DS Jr. to Starbury or Steve Francis.

      The latter 2 had a few pretty spectacular seasons, but I’d still take George Hill’s career over theirs, especially for this team.

      I just want a true point guard, maybe we roll the dice and go Frank.

    40. ClashFan

      Detroit wants to unload Reggie Jackson; that might be the price to get back the #12 pick.

      If taking on Turner from Portland, yeah, insist on the #15 and #20, but settle for #15 and #25. In that case I’d try to send back LT to soften the salary blow, but they probably do not want anyone back.

      LT or OQ for Turner and #15 and #20. Then if possible, package Lee and those two new picks to jump back into the top 10 via either Minny or Dallas.. The idea is to draft both Monk and Frank for a whole new back court, assuming Monk isn’t gone in the top 6.

      I like the shooting potential of those two guys. The league is all about shooting.

    41. djphan

      i will go on record as saying if josh hart gets picked in the 2nd rd he will probably end up being better than monk or ntilikina….

    42. TheOakmanCometh

      @30 – this is not a good argument. You really need to list all the players that were potentially available at 20, not just the ones that were actually picked at 20.

      Frank, your argument assumes that the Knicks are guaranteed to pick the best player available at #20. If that were the case, then even the #40 pick would be immensely valuable, because in nearly every draft there is a good player picked after #40. But we know that the #40 pick is not actually that valuable because the chances that you select that one player are slim. Same goes for #20.

      The #20 pick has a poor history going back to the 1980s. That’s a sample size of 37 picks, which is a pretty decent barometer.

    43. TheOakmanCometh

      Frank,

      Here’s another way to look at the #20 pick, which you may like better.

      This guy created a value chart for all draft pick slots. He uses the best 2-consecutive-year VORP average of a player’s career as a measurement, then uses a regression method to smooth out the numbers so that each slot looks more like the slots around it.

      http://fansided.com/2016/06/16/nba-draft-trade-value-chart/

      According to this, the #20 pick produces a player whose peak is worth 2.06 VORP per season. This past season, a player with a 2.06 VORP would have ranked 50th in the NBA. Remember, that’s his career peak, not his career average.

      Is a guy who maxes out as the 50th best player in the league worth taking on Turner’s contract? I guess it’s possible. I still wouldn’t do it, though.

    44. Donnie Walsh

      Allen hasn’t been shy about spending in the past, but he’s still a businessman… Turner is the worst contract they have.

      Turner was signed less than 1 year ago, so you’d assume Blazer ownership/management had some sort of a long term plan for their spending that looked past 2017. And that is the main difference between Kurt Thomas (c. 2007) and Evan Turner now: Phoenix acquired Thomas in a dump of Quintin Richardson’s contract (also cost them Nate Robinson’s #21 draft pick), aka, he was a player they didn’t want (and was originally acquired by the previous regime in Phoenix). Turner was bid on and obtained by the current management team in Portland, and spending multiple assets to erase that recent mistake a) looks bad on management, and b) makes fans very angry.

      That said, it is perplexing that the team with the most ball-dominant backcourt in the league would want Evan Turner at all (whose real only strength is as a ball distributing point forward). He’d have much more value on a team that, say, has questionmarls in the backcourt, runs an offense that values ball movement from every position, and isn’t actually trying to win-now.

    45. ess-dog

      @40 that makes me want to take Monk, lol.

      I mean, realistically we are not getting significant free agents in at any point until we’re close to becoming a title contender (2026 maybe?) so why not rent out some of that cap space? Hopefully for a decent pick. Ideally we can also shed some cap space with Melo, and if Noah is totally broken, maybe we stretch him at some point… but until then let’s keep our picks, draft quality players and just feel the reset button for the first time in a long time.

      For the record, I’m also happy to stay put with 8, 44 and and 58 and walk away with something like Monk, Devon Robinson and Edmond Sumner.

    46. Frank

      This whole Dallas – Ntilikina thing is a little strange.

      I get that they like him, but to offer the French coach a job at summer league? that seems might presumptuous. Even if they jump ahead of us at #7, for all we know Orlando or even Sac might take him at 5 if Fox is gone already.

    47. stratomatic

      Meanwhile the Mavs are hiring Ntilikina’s coach to be part of their summer league staff. Wonder whether someone has traded up past us to get him.

      If this is true, it looks like they have a done deal with the T-Wolves. There’s no way you hire that coach unless you think you have the player in the bag.

    48. Frank

      @48 – right, but what if someone before #7 drafts him? I mean he’s getting a lot of press now, at least in NY. Maybe someone else is in love with him. it’s just a weird story.

      There are also rumors that Dallas is interested in Rubio, although they have even less to trade than we do. They don’t really have any young talent, and their other contracts are not assets. They could trade picks, I guess, but that doesn’t seem a good idea considering they’re going to be rebuilding.

      It would be so Knicks if Dallas somehow traded for Rubio then jumped us to get Ntilikina.

      Not that that would be the worst outcome in the world for us. I could live with drafting Isaac if he dropped, or DSJ/Monk, then using whatever we were going to trade for Rubio to make a different move.

    49. stratomatic

      @49. I understand your point and it’s well taken. But other than Dallas and NY I haven’t heard of any interest in him at all. Some mocks have (or at least had) him in the 10-14 range. So maybe they are very confident if they get #7 they have him.

      I’m still not totally convinced he’s the right choice for us anyway. I like the idea of of a 3 & D stopper, but we need a real PG. I see him as more of a SG.

    50. TheOakmanCometh

      Turner was signed less than 1 year ago, so you’d assume Blazer ownership/management had some sort of a long term plan for their spending that looked past 2017.

      Fair enough. That is true. But a few things could have changed their thinking.

      1. Turner was worse than expected and was a poor fit with Lillard/McCollum.
      2. The team was worse than expected. Paying huge money for a contender is one thing. Paying huge money for a 40-win team is another.
      3. Management spent big last offseason to build on the momentum of an overachieving squad that had everybody feeling good. Now that the same roster has underachieved and the excitement has worn off, the good feelings aren’t there anymore.

      It’s also possible that when they signed all those players last offseason, they were always planning on trading some of them for assets later. Certainly Crabbe, Ezeli, Harkless, and Leonard seemed young enough to be able to flip. But with all four of them having disappointing seasons, no one will give up assets for them and management finds itself stuck with more big contracts than it wants.

      We already know that Portland wants to dump salary (if the reports are true) and is willing to include draft picks to do it. The only question is how desperate they are.

    51. er

      If the Knicks pick Ntilikina in this draft at 8, it will be a dumb move that they will regret. By the time he’s decent at NBA basketball KP will be gone. Like it or not the Knicks are on the clock with KP because of the shitty way that the team is run.

      They have to pick Monk if he’s there. The guy has been killing workouts and has been favorably been compared to Beal. I like Smith too but I’m sure he will be gone, Isaac too

    52. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      After Frank’s game today Cuban might fire the euro coach on the spot.

    53. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      @52 Smith Monk and Frank might all be there. At least 2 out of 3 of them should. We’re getting a nice player no matter what.

    54. stratomatic

      The sad part is that if Turner could just shoot 3s well and not do much else on offense he’d be a pretty good player given that he rebounds and make plays at an above average rate for his position.

    55. Frank

      lol – I don’t read french box scores but from what I can tell, Ntilikina has played 14 min with basically zeroes across the board in the box score.

    56. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      0 for 2 shooting with 0 free throws. He’s ours if we want him now.

      Kennard and Mitchell are rocketing up our board.

    57. nicos

      For what it’s worth Smith looks like more of a natural playmaker than either Francis or Marbury- 7.1 assists per 40 vs. 5.8 for Francis and 4.8 for Marbury. His ceiling is really, really high and as talent starved as the Knicks are I think you have to roll the dice on him if he’s there (provided nobody surprising drops).

    58. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      @62

      Echoing strat I could use any xanax and or ambien anyone’s willing to overnight me

    59. TheOakmanCometh

      If the Mavs love Frank so much, and the Knicks are ambivalent between the guards that will be available at #8, we should swap with them and get something in return.

      Boston got a high 2018 lottery pick to move down from 1 to 3. What can we get to move down from 8 to 9? What about the Mavs 2018 pick, Top 20 protected. If it doesn’t convey in 2018, it becomes a 2019 pick, lottery-protected. Then the protection keeps shrinking for a few years before becoming two second-rounders in 2022.

    60. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      Ntilikina’s team in France, Strasbourg IG, was playing in Game 4 of a best-of-5 series against Elan Chalon on Monday. A victory for Strasbourg would mean it plays again on Friday, a day after the draft in Brooklyn. Ntilikina will take his physical Tuesday in New York, hold media availability with other top draft prospects on Wednesday, go into the draft green room on Thursday — and then, if necessary and approved by the Strasbourg team president — fly on a private plane back to France for a decisive Game 5.

      That’s a a crazy schedule

    61. Z-man

      Another thing about Smith Jr if Marbury and Francis are the best comparisons, those two guys maintained a very high trade value up until age 27. In terms of being an “asset” Smith Jr. is more the sure thing than Frank.

    62. fmikieo

      @69 er

      What if Gaines thinks Frank is the right pick? Would you agree with him or not?

    63. Philmelo

      Knicks have strong interest in Ntilikina too. Mavs have done a better job recruiting and building relationships. He wants to be in Dallas— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) June 19, 2017

    64. yellowboy90

      @74

      That would be a big deal if this was college or Frank was a FA. What the heck is Ford talking about?

    65. Brian Cronin

      We’ve obviously seen plenty of instances where guys around this point in the draft really do prefer one team to another. However, I don’t know if I recall it ever actually working once another team expressed interest in that player (we’ve seen things where players just won’t work out for teams or intentionally tank their workouts in the hopes that teams will pass on them, but not cases where teams have the same amount of information). Like, how does Ntilikina telling the Knicks, “I’d prefer to play for Dallas” actually affect anything? Who gives a shit if the guy wants to play for Dallas at this precise moment?

    66. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      YB90, it’s just a nonsensical tweet by an ESPN guy to perpetuate the hate by that network against the Knicks. It made no sense. And someone here posted it for some unknown reason.

    67. nicos

      I guess Frank could threaten to stay in Europe if the Knicks take him but he’d be giving up a lot of money to do so.

    68. Brian Cronin

      True, I suppose that’s really his best argument. “If you pick me, I won’t come over.” It’s not much of a bluff, but it’s something. If I were Minnesota, I’d start leaking stories about how much I’m interested in Ntilikina, as well, see if the Mavs will trade up to get him.

    69. er

      What if Gaines thinks Frank is the right pick? Would you agree with him or not?

      I think Gaines is good at his job for sure. I’m not sure if his job is to pick an international over an American. I thought his job was more so to give assessments of the Euros. If it is his job I would take it into consideration but I feel like the Knicks already hit on two projects in Willy and KP and should go for a more solid player and more of a known

      It’s a very interesting player. But he’s 18 and plays low level ball. Idk

    70. Accidentank 2017

      There’s no real way Frank Ntilikina wants to be in Dallas with Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel over Kristaps Porzingis, the Knicks, and Kurt Rambis’ triangle. These reports are much ado about nothing.

    71. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      Frank was recently interviewed and said that he’d like to play for the Knicks so calling attention to a dumb tweet is dumb.

    72. Accidentank 2017

      The Mavericks are doing what the Thunder and Warriors did to the Knicks in the 2008 and 2009 drafts. We can never have nice things.

    73. swiftandabundant

      I find it funny that so many people (not just on this blog) have been very ambivalent about Frank but now that The Mavs want him and might trade with Minny to get him its all “OH this is so Knicks!” You either want him or you don’t.

      The simple thing here is for Phil to get on the phone with Cuban and offer to switch draft spots and ask for something in return. It doesn’t have to be anything great. A few second round picks would do.

    74. Accidentank 2017

      Frank Ntilikina has always been our guy, though, and we all knew that. He’s been mocked to the Knicks since forever and the Knicks clearly want to build the European Triangle offense to stick it to all the AAU brats. Mark Cuban is selling Frank that he could become the next Dirk or something, even though the next Dirk plays 41 games a year at Madison Square Garden.

      I hope we remember the time Mark Cuban tried to steal our French import and failed, and I hope that same French import goes on to become the greatest French baller ever. Screw Cuban.

    75. Philmelo

      I find it funny that so many people (not just on this blog) have been very ambivalent about Frank but now that The Mavs want him and might trade with Minny to get him its all “OH this is so Knicks!” You either want him or you don’t.

      This. I’ve always been a Frank fan, but its funny seeing how Dallas’ interest has legitimized his value in a way that wasn’t there before. I think the thing to be concerned about is how the Mavs seem to be pursuing him hard despite the very prevalent rumors circulating around the NBA grapevine we’re going to pick him at #8. Either Dallas thinks our FO is bluffing and is calling it out or they have an ace in the hole and will snatch him from us.

    76. Accidentank 2017

      I would organize Fire Phil protests in the streets if Minnesota (who beat us in a coin flip because let’s win pointless games in April) ends up trading Dallas Ricky Rubio and the #7 pick for some silly package Dallas will come up with.

    77. ess-dog

      Honestly I’m more for Jr. and Monk than Frank. Frank doesn’t seem to have an elite skill set the way the other two guys do, unless you count defense, which I mean cone on, what have we really seen?

    78. Brian Cronin

      Fascinating wrinkle about the Fultz trade. A lot of it turned on a brand new rule by the NBA that allows teams to put new restrictions on picks that they received from other teams. It used to be that you couldn’t do that. That likely would have changed the Fultz dramatically if the Sixers weren’t able to put restrictions on the Lakers pick.

    79. Donnie Walsh

      Would that even be worth it?

      Worth it for whom? (I don’t understand why the Bulls would want to deal Butler, but they obviously do, and he’s going to make some team a whole lot better).

    80. Donnie Walsh

      Would that even be worth it for Chicago?

      Aha. I see you’ve edited for clarity :)

    81. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

      If Chicago is looking to tear it all down you could do worse than that Minne trade but Butler could definitely get you more than that

      Easily worthy of a top 5 pick, fultz, whatever

    82. MSA

      Yeah, I don’t get why Chicago want to trade Butler.

      He is possibly the best SG in the league and only 27.

    83. Donnie Walsh

      Minn can throw in Wiggins for Butler and come out safely on top.

      Bos can probably still offer a better package.

      Butler on either of those teams would make them A LOT better.

      Philly is probably the only other team that could compete, and they’re not quite at the point yet to make it worth their while.

    84. ptmilo

      Would that even be worth it for Chicago?

      yeah, i mean you wouldn’t think so. seem like celts can definitely offer a better package.

    85. d-mar

      Every team in the NBA other than Golden State and Cleveland needs to be thinking long term. They should all be saying no to Butler, no to George, no to Heyward and just keep developing young talent. Why would Minnesota give up young players and picks to get Jimmy Butler? To win 45 games and maybe win a playoff round? Boston isn’t one player away either.

      It may sound like waving the white flag, but it’s reality. It’s all about the long game while LeBron is in the East and the Warriors have their big 4.

    86. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      Big things are about to start happening for our beloved team. Can you feel it too?

    87. Donnie Walsh

      Every team in the NBA other than Golden State and Cleveland needs to be thinking long term.

      Undortunately, the league can’t survive this. The bubble would burst.

      And Butler is a really, really good player. He could make a team very good, which has financial benefits outside of winning a championship.

    88. DRed

      Be pretty funny if Boston accumulated all these assets to trade for Jimmy Butler and then the Bulls ship him to the Cavs

    89. Grocer

      It’s a very interesting player. But he’s 18 and plays low level ball. Idk

      I mean, I only really watch the tournament but NCAA ball kinda sucks. These teams and most of the players just aren’t very good. The advantage is we’ve got a lot more data on it vs. other leagues. Problem with Frank is the sample size is so small it’s just impossible to tell, not that he plays low level ball relative to the NCAA.

    90. ptmilo

      If the cavs don’t get Butler, and despite the rumors it seems pretty hard to imagine, billups becoming president could be good for us right? He spent a lot of the year on tv saying how all the good teams need to trade for Melo.

    91. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      And I’m still for a two track approach where we keep or acquire positive veterans to blend in with all of our youth. We should avoid becoming a team of newbies who can’t play together and don’t know how to win. In that regard I’d probably opt to keep Lee, Holiday, Lance and O’Quinn for stability and leadership and to promote our system. Not Melo though. Yes add a Rubio and a PJ Tucker. Having 5 or 6 of these wily veterans is a positive influence both in the short term as well as the long term.

    92. nicos

      I can’t imagine the Bulls preferring either Love or Kyrie to the multiple lottery picks (probably with a decent young player thrown in) they could get from Boston. Maybe I’m wrong but Love for George just seems too obvious for both sides not to get done.

    93. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      Ntilikina did his Jerian Grant impression today going 0 for 2 with 0 points but I still like him:)

    94. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      Nicos, we need to convince the Bulls that their best solution is to add Melo as opposed to subtracting Butler.

    95. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      I’m watching the NBA Network’s special on the draft and boy, would I like Lonzo Ball over all the rest. Who cares about his father?

    96. er

      I mean, I only really watch the tournament but NCAA ball kinda sucks. These teams and most of the players just aren’t very good.

      The difference is that these teams don’t have the continuity that that the pro teams overseas have and they are young kids. I wouldn’t mind the pick if it wasn’t an issue with KP being 21 and almost being a good player already. You need to follow that ala OKC with their legendary triumvirate of KD in 07 Russ in 08 and Harden in 10. Russ was the closest to a project but he was a freak athlete who played in the final 4

    97. DRed

      I’m watching the NBA Network’s special on the draft and boy, would I like Lonzo Ball

      He’s not an ankle breaker bruh

    98. Z-man

      Just watched Ntilikina’s highlight reel very carefully, and I am simply not impressed. He’s an east-west pull up for a jumper with very limited ball skills, no finishing skill, and like zero explosion. He looks like he’s at least 3-4 years away, if he ever even gets there. If it weren’t for all the hype, and I only had his stats and his videos to judge by, I’d see a 2nd round pick. He’s 18 and all and playing against grown men (who suck), but there’s just nothing there that excites me. I essentially see a Langston Galloway-level player.

      I’d surely pick DSJ, Collins, Markkanen, and Mitchell over him. I’d also consider TJ Leaf, Kennard and Allen.

      But hey, if we draft him, I’ll hope that Gaines saw something I don’t see and that he was right.

    99. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      Monk said on that predraft show that he prefers playing the one. He could be a stealth anklebreaker and a long distance fireman. Don’t count him out of the equation.

    100. er

      Monk said on that predraft show that he prefers playing the one

      This is what I have been hoping.

    101. djphan

      monk’s not a pg… he played pg in hs but he wasn’t really a pg… he’s as much a pg as iverson was…

    102. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      @118 That’s funny but it might be tempting for them to add Melo while keeping their entire core for a measly couple of #1s years down the line. By then we could all be dead anyway.

    103. er

      monk’s not a pg… he played pg in hs but he wasn’t really a pg… he’s as much a pg as iverson was…

      I’m thinking Dame Lillard

    104. er

      @118 I’d do it if I’m the Cavs lol

      Then waive JR and deal with unhappy shump for 2 years, unless he opts out of the second year

    105. ptmilo

      Reports that the lakers are offering Russell for a top 12 pick

      Edit: Chad Ford said this but the more reliable Ramona shelbourne merely said they wanted another lottery pick, didn’t mention Russell

    106. djphan

      you have to play the position at least a little bit… it’s difficult as it is to make it as a pg in the nba… it’s a million times more difficult if you haven’t really played the position…. lillard played 4 years at pg before coming into the nba and he was known for his ability in the pnr…

      monk looks to score first.. and his handle is ok but not amazing… but most importantly you have to be able to make a lot of decisions quickly and correctly if you are going to be high usage with primary ballhandling responsibilities… the guys who were born to be pg’s have been doing this since they were little…

      basically the only one who didn’t really play position was westbrook… and even he shared pg roles in college… and there aren’t really any other examples besides him…

    107. Brian Cronin

      you have to play the position at least a little bit… it’s difficult as it is to make it as a pg in the nba… it’s a million times more difficult if you haven’t really played the position…. lillard played 4 years at pg before coming into the nba and he was known for his ability in the pnr…

      When you got moved off of the position because of your college teammate, odds are you’re not sticking with it in the NBA (even if that college teammate is also going to be drafted in the lottery).

    108. Brian Cronin

      Kevin Love, I think, is in a weird position because I think he could really help a lot of teams. He just doesn’t match up well with the Warriors on this specific team. It’s such an odd situation to be in. He’d fit well so many places and he is so talented and yet on this specific team against that specific team, he doesn’t work at all.

    109. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      Brian, Monk was versatile enough to move to SG while there’s no way that Fox could have made that move. It doesn’t necessarily mean that Monk was a poor PG although it might be true.

    110. Brian Cronin

      Frank Ntilikina has always been our guy, though, and we all knew that. He’s been mocked to the Knicks since forever and the Knicks clearly want to build the European Triangle offense to stick it to all the AAU brats. Mark Cuban is selling Frank that he could become the next Dirk or something, even though the next Dirk plays 41 games a year at Madison Square Garden.

      I hope we remember the time Mark Cuban tried to steal our French import and failed, and I hope that same French import goes on to become the greatest French baller ever. Screw Cuban.

      The thing that worries me is that we talk about the Wolves wanting to dump Rubio (because they’re dumb), but then doesn’t it make a lot of sense for the Mavericks to trade for Rubio and the #7 pick? If the Wolves are so desperate to get rid of him, then the Mavericks could trade a future first rounder (they have all of their first round picks) and the #9 pick for Rubio and the #7. A first rounder for Rubio is a pretty good return for the Wolves, right? That and moving down just two spots.

      The Knicks, though, could get Isaac in that scenario possibly. Or Fox!

    111. Brian Cronin

      Lebron subtweeting Dan Gilbert makes me think he’s Legone after this year

      That was a super-douchey tweet.

    112. Brian Cronin

      Oh sure, I’ll never feel sorry for that douche, but boy, that’s still such a lame thing for Lebron to do.

    113. Z-man

      I’m warming up to the idea of Monk a bit. He’s not a true PG and never will be, but he looks pretty gifted as a scorer and athletically. He wouldn’t be my pick, but I can easily see him turning into a CJ McCollum-level player, and I could live with that. Shooting the 3 has become so important in today’s game, and he is better at it than any guard in this draft.

      Anyway, I think he will have a much better NBA career than Frank, especially in their first 5 years. I would still take Dennis Smith Jr. over both of them, but that’s where Clarence Gaines comes in.

    114. Brian Cronin

      Who would you pick Monk over, of the following players?

      Ntilikina (if I learned how to spell his name correctly for no reason – grrr!)
      Smith Jr.
      Mitchell
      Zach Collins
      Markkanen
      Isaac
      Fox
      Tatum

    115. lavor postell

      Would pick Monk over all but Isaac and Fox.

      Him and Tatum is a coin flip for me, because I think Monk adds a dimension to our offense with his movement that’s lacking, but Tatum, if he can improve his shot distribution, could be a #1 scoring option. Neither is going to be a spectacular defender, but I think they’ll compete and could become average-ish individual defenders that could be fine in the right scheme, Tatum especially.

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