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Monday, March 25, 2019

Knicks Morning News (2017.04.29)

  • [NYTimes] Wizards and Celtics Both Clinch Series and Will Meet in the Next Round
    (Saturday, April 29, 2017 4:22:46 AM)

    John Wall led Washington with 42 points; Avery Bradley scored 23 to lead Boston; and Larry Bird stepped down from the Pacers’ front office.

  • [SNY Knicks] Hill, Senglin among potential under the radar targets for Knicks
    (Friday, April 28, 2017 1:00:28 PM)

    The Knicks, coming off their fourth-straight season without a postseason appearance, have lots of work to do between now and the 2017-18 season.

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    48 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2017.04.29)

    1. Reub On Our Way To Greatness

      How’s Jerian doing?
      I’m in the Canary Islands and have lost track of him.

    2. Z-man

      Man, this draft is really tough to figure. I get the sense that there is a future superstar to be had at #7 or wherever we wind up, but the players are so young, it’s as much of a crap shoot as ever. Ignoring the top 3 guys (they will never fall to us and are consensus picks if we do move up) the two guys I worry most about passing over are Isaac and Smith Jr.

      Isaac’s skillset/physical tools combo is super impressive, but there’s a risk that he’s somewhat of a tweener. I can’t really think of a great comparison in the NBA; Paul George? Gordon Hayward?

      Smith seems to be the perfect guard for today’s NBA. Playing guard defense is becoming virtually impossible with the way the rules are set up, and he is dynamite inside and out on offense. At best, I see a taller Isaiah Thomas. At worst, I see a more athletic Kemba Walker.

      I’m fine with guys like Fox, Frank and a bunch of the forwards (Tatum, Collins, Markkanen, to name a few), but Isaac looks like he could be special and so does Smith.

    3. Z-man

      Rashard Lewis was a pretty good player, but would be a disappointing outcome for a #7 pick in this draft. Rashard was more of a spot-up guy. This guy looks more dynamic. Maybe more Robert Horry?

    4. Accidentank 2017

      Dennis Smith Jr is also a lockdown defender when engaged:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo9dJhdqm5c

      And Rashard Lewis is a lazy comp IMO. Rashard couldn’t handle like Isaac and he isn’t the shot blocker, rebounder, or defender Isaac is. He isn’t the next Kevin Durant, but he’s the second most coordinated 7 foot wing I’ve seen behind only Durant.

    5. Accidentank 2017

      Even Kirilenko doesn’t have Isaac’s shooting touch or ball handle. Jonathan Isaac is a rare talent, people. Don’t let Xavier Rathan-Meyes and Dwayne Bacon deter you from the truth; Isaac has the highest ceiling of anybody in the draft.

    6. kevin5318

      I’m already expecting the Wolves to draft him. He’s a perfect frontcourt partner for KAT.

    7. Accidentank 2017

      Frank Ntilikina is the pick unless his workout with Philly blows Monk’s out of the water.

    8. JK47

      Yeah, Lamar’s skill set was a little different but his physical attributes are similar to Isaac– same kind of combination of length and agility. The young Odom was really quick for a guy his size.

    9. Accidentank 2017

      What we do with our lottery pick is very important, but grabbing a productive 2nd round pick is one way to really get bang for your buck. I’m hoping we can land Peter Jok and a Euro stash. What Phil does in round 2, with his two picks, might be more important than what he does in this top heavy draft where pretty much anybody in that range not named Markannen or Monk (Fox, Smith Jr, Frank N’ Tank) would be a good pick. If Phil can deliver a draft as good as the 2015 draft I’d be very happy.

    10. Z-man

      It’s highly likely that unless Phil (or Gaines) falls in love with either Collins or Markkanen as the clear BPA in spite of redundancy, we will wind up with one of Fox, Ntilikina, Tatum, Smith, Monk or Isaac. A lot depends on who is available but various mocks have so much variance. My guess of the order:

      Fultz goes #1
      Ball and Josh go 2-3 but not necc in that order
      Fox, Tatum and Isaac go 4-6, but not in that order

      That leaves Smith, Frank and Monk. I think it’s fair that, need aside, you can make just as compelling an argument for Collins or Markkanen.

      In fact, if either of those two jump into the top 6, one of Fox, Isaac or Tatum will be available, and it would be hard to pass on them for Smith, Frank or Monk.

      Man, does #7 suck.

    11. JK47

      Man, does #7 suck.

      Winning just enough meaningless games to screw yourself in the following year’s draft is a big part of what we do here. We’re not gonna kick winning just enough meaningless games to screw yourself in the following year’s draft to the curb.

    12. Accidentank 2017

      Don’t be mad when Willy Hernangomez turns into Hassan Whiteside next Spring and takes us out of position to draft Luka Doncic or Michael Porter Jr.

    13. Donnie Walsh

      Isaac reminds me a little of a young Lamar Odom

      Young Lamar Odom wasn’t very good. Averaged 3 turnovers to go along with his 4 assists per 36 over his first 5 years as point forward. He was a “5 tool prospect” that really never honed any of his tools. (Just as whomever the Knicks 2017 draft pick won’t as well, of course).

    14. danvt

      I’m happy the Knicks won some games. I like that they have some NBA players and not no one. I’d rather them not win 15 games just for a shot at a top three pick. Maybe Ben Simmons is the real deal but just about anyone else from last year is not much better than WHG. I mean, I’d rather have Jamal Murray than anyone picked 2-6. Some drafts are better than others and, of course, I’m stupid, but I’d rather take a shot that we get great value in the top ten or twenty and have, like, a decent chance at the playoffs in a given year.

      Gaming the system is for suckers. (I know PHI is gonna be a dynasty any year now.) Kawhi Leonard #15, Paul George #10, Jimmy Butler #30. Unless LBJ is coming out I think the move is just not to trade your pick for Andrea Bargnani (who was #1) (so was Anthony Bennett). Boy, there’s a lot of busts in the top ten every year. Phil’s been bad at some things but not drafting. If we get a good kid at 7, we’re gonna be really happy to have a lot of the guys from last year who everyone is pissed at now for winning a bit.

    15. danvt

      The only exception is Carmelo. I won’t be happy to have him back. He’s Arod. If Phil finds a team to pay his salary I’ll be extremely happy. I’m convinced that as long as he’s here the ball will go through him and that has not worked out.

    16. DRed

      Smith and Fox are both good prospect. I think they’re a step below Isaacs, but it’s not a huge step. In terms of quality drafting 7th instead of 4th is pretty equal, but we just have fewer roughly equivalent prospects to chose from

    17. thenoblefacehumper

      I’m happy the Knicks won some games. I like that they have some NBA players and not no one. I’d rather them not win 15 games just for a shot at a top three pick.

      I can understand not begrudging wins that came largely at the hands of Porzingis, Willy, and maybe Baker/Randle/Ndour if you want to be extremely optimistic about their prospects. Those wins at least theoretically beget future wins, so you roll with the punches.

      The problem is we had a handful of wins that were largely attributable to Melo, Courtney Lee, KOQ, Holiday, etc. Unless we re-sign KOQ, which I would be happy about but doubt will occur due to how smart it would be, none of those guys will be on the next good Knicks team. So we worsened our draft position and will have nothing to show for it in the future. How is that anything but bad and stupid?

    18. Z-man

      We’ll never know at draft time if drafting 7th makes us miss a future HOFer or helps us avoid a consensus pick that turns out to be a bust. I can’t get too wrapped up in that stuff. The bottom line is that we are drafting much higher than most of us thought at the beginning of the season, and it’s s deep enough draft so that position is only theoretically relevant.

      For example, DRed says Isaac is a better prospect than Fox or Smith, but is he really? These guys are all over the place on various “expert” draft boards; there is literally no consensus beyond the top 3.

    19. thenoblefacehumper

      We’ll never know at draft time if drafting 7th makes us miss a future HOFer or helps us avoid a consensus pick that turns out to be a bust. I can’t get too wrapped up in that stuff. The bottom line is that we are drafting much higher than most of us thought at the beginning of the season, and it’s s deep enough draft so that position is only theoretically relevant.

      And if we had stayed at 6th, I wouldn’t have cared much either. But at least to me there’s a big difference between 6th and 7th in this draft. There’s a perfectly realistic scenario in which Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Isaac, Fox, and Smith are all off the table by the time we pick.

      Oh, and there’s a 23% chance we pick 8th so you can cross off Ntilikina as well. Yeah. It’s quite possible that literally every single prospect we’ve discussed on here will be gone by the time we pick, all because we won some entirely meaningless games.

      I just scared myself shitless.

    20. Zanzibar

      2017 There’s a perfectly realistic scenario in which Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Isaac, Fox, and Smith are all off the table by the time we pick. I just scared myself shitless.

      2015 There’s a perfectly realistic scenario in which KAT, Okafor, Russell, KP, Winslow, and Mudiay are all off the table by the time we pick.

      So don’t sweat it, it’s a crap shoot. If you judge by WS/48, we did much better than you could reasonably hope for at the time in the 2015 draft: Willy (.124), Grant (.118), KP (.100). Only real regret is Melo’s brand cost us KAT and Phil just gives away players for nothing of value in return. I’ll only be upset if Wolves land a top 2 pick in 2017 draft and one of those players ends up being a difference maker.

    21. JK47

      “With the second pick in the 2017 NBA draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select Lonzo Ball, point guard from UCLA…”

      #Knicks

    22. JK47

      You know, really, I get all of the “doesn’t matter if you pick 6th or 7th” stuff. Really, it’s kind of true. It’s just that I’ve seen this kind of shit play out so many times now that I’m jaded beyond recognition. Of COURSE Minnesota is going to win the lotto with what should have been our ping pong balls, and of COURSE a meaningless jump shot by a meaningless player like Maurice Ndour is going to be the difference between a Hall of Fame player and this generation’s answer to Jordan Hill. This is just how shit is. This is the New York Knicks. It is just written in the stars.

      You have to apply Dolan’s Razor: the most irritating possible outcome is the thing that will actually happen. There is just no other way. This is the world we live in. Embrace it, and then when it happens, it won’t hurt so bad.

    23. Zanzibar

      Hard to blame Ndour. He was probably trying to miss but he’s such a poor natural shooter that his trying to miss actually resulted in the bucket. No I identify Professor Plumlee in the Paint as the culprit (notice what I did there?). Did he really have to be all energetic and block that layup? Ya gotta look at that.

    24. d-mar

      “With the second pick in the 2017 NBA draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select Lonzo Ball, point guard from UCLA…”

      #Knicks

      I get the sentiment, but I’m pretty sure the coin flip didn’t effect our odds of moving up to the top 3.

      More likely that the 6th pick turns into the next Steph Curry, and the 7th pick turns into the next Jonny Flynn.

    25. Accidentank 2017

      Funny things are:

      1) Flynn went 6th to Minnesota that year.
      2) Steph Curry went one pick before we drafted 8th.
      3) Steph Curry needed time to develop and we probably would have traded him to Denver for Melo.

      Funny.

    26. Cock Jowles, The Nostradumbass Who Still Beat Your Weak Preseason Picks

      Gaming the system is for suckers. (I know PHI is gonna be a dynasty any year now.) Kawhi Leonard #15, Paul George #10, Jimmy Butler #30.

      Like I’ve said before, higher draft slots usually means other teams get a chance to whiff before you do.

      Here are some Spurs draft picks since Tim Duncan:

      Leon Smith
      Bryan Bracey
      Chris Carrawell
      Cory Hightower
      Robertas Javtokas
      Randy Holcomb
      Sergei Karaulov
      Damir Markota
      Giorgos Printezis
      James Gist
      Marcus Williams
      Jack McClinton
      Adam Hanga
      Marcus Denmon (man I wanted him bad)
      Deshaun Thomas
      Livio Jean-Charles
      Cady Lalanne

      Lots of these guys never even made it to a single game, and we’re talking about the best franchise in the last twenty years. Drafting is an art, and it’s very hard to project future production from NCAA (or, jeez, high school) numbers.

    27. danvt

      Like I’ve said before, higher draft slots usually means other teams get a chance to whiff before you do.

      Did Jowles just agree with me? Wow.

      Yeah, I mean we could have had Russell or Okafor over Porzingis. Actually, change that to would have. #7 forces us to be smart, take the best available player, and not go with the consensus for fear of being roasted in the tabloids.

      Speaking of the consensus, Lonzo Ball’s jumper is phugly! Any alarm bells there?

      One more thing for the tank team. If you, as an organization, want to put kids on the floor with no chance of winning so be it, but those kids still need to try. That PHI game was a great game. The crowd was fired up and Baker and N’Dour put on a show. I don’t think a coach wants to lose either. Hand wringing over wins is idiotic. I mean, if you feel that way, just be glad that we didn’t finish .500. Wow, that would have been a drag. Maybe making the playoffs. Then we wouldn’t have any ping pong balls at all! So glad we lost those ten extra games.

    28. MSA

      Lots of these guys never even made it to a single game, and we’re talking about the best franchise in the last twenty years. Drafting is an art, and it’s very hard to project future production from NCAA (or, jeez, high school) numbers.

      That’s why I’m totally fine with trading down for multiple picks.

      I seriously don’t belive that all this prospects deserve the hype that this draft is getting.

      In the top 7 picks I’m almost certain that 3 or 4 will be backup at best in their careers.

      I don’t know. The thought of drafting a top pick is very tempting but I just think that, except for mega hyped 1st round picks (Tim Duncan, Lebron, AD), the rest is a crap shot and I don’t trust NBA decision makers to be clairvoyant about the future.

    29. thenoblefacehumper

      I mean, if you feel that way, just be glad that we didn’t finish .500. Wow, that would have been a drag. Maybe making the playoffs. Then we wouldn’t have any ping pong balls at all! So glad we lost those ten extra games.

      I actually think it’s pretty easy to draw a line at which point wins become detrimental. The goal of every team is to get to a place where they have a chance to win a championship. With the amount of fluky stuff that can happen, I don’t even think that chance has to be particularly high to justify a push. The Rockets are perfectly justified in going for it right now, for example. Given that, there are two simple questions:

      1) Do you currently have any chance whatsoever to win a championship?
      2) Taking into account your current cap, talent, and age situation, is there any chance whatsoever that free agency coupled with internal improvement is enough to get your team to a place where it has a non-zero chance at a championship?

      If the answer to both questions is no, wins are bad.

      Sure, you could reasonably argue that there’s some nuance I’m leaving out. If all teams assume they can sign a true superstar in free agency, all of them can claim that the answer to the second question is yes. If you’re realistic, though, and acknowledge that Kevin Durant ain’t walking through the door of a team like the Knicks, this isn’t a hard determination to make.

      I genuinely wish this wasn’t the way the NBA incentive structure was set up, but it is, and will continue to be unless the league makes a serious effort to reform it.

    30. JK47

      The real reason it doesn’t matter whether we pick at #6 or #8 is that we have a sub-optimal GM who was dumb enough to think Carmelo Anthony was worth a mega-max no trade clause contract, and that Derrick Rose would be a good complementary piece and that the last legs of Joakim Noah would be just the thing to glue it all together. It’s like having some horrible terminal disease and worrying about whether or not to get your teeth whitened. Sure, #6, #8, whatever!

    31. DRed

      I think there’s a good chance we’ll be able to draft a good prospect, but yeah, I’d feel a lot better if we were picking 4th

    32. Donnie Walsh

      You have to apply Dolan’s Razor: the most irritating possible outcome is the thing that will actually happen.

      Dolan’s Razor, aka “instant karma”.

    33. danvt

      I genuinely wish this wasn’t the way the NBA incentive structure was set up, but it is, and will continue to be unless the league makes a serious effort to reform it.

      I agree with this. A salary cap plus guaranteed deals is bad for fans. Also, the lottery doesn’t go far enough to discourage losing.

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