Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Knicks Morning News (2016.05.29)

  • [New York Times] Warriors 108, Thunder 101 | Series tied, 3-3: Klay Thompson Takes Control, and Warriors Force Game 7 With Thunder (Sun, 29 May 2016 04:14:30 GMT)
    Golden State, facing elimination for a second straight game, trailed for most of the game but preserved its chances of repeating as champion with a late run.

  • [New York Times] Curry Keen to Avoid Another Game Seven Letdown (Sun, 29 May 2016 06:45:27 GMT)
    Stephen Curry will get the chance to make up for one of the few disappointments of his career on Monday when the Golden State Warriors take on Oklahoma City Thunder in Game Seven of the Western Conference finals.

  • [New York Times] Thompson’s 41 Points, 11 3s Save Golden State’s Season (Sun, 29 May 2016 05:15:37 GMT)
    Stephen Curry turned things over to Klay Thompson, and his Splash Brother delivered.

  • [New York Times] NBA-Thompson, Warriors Shock Thunder, Force Game 7 (Sun, 29 May 2016 04:36:27 GMT)
    Klay Thompson scored 41 points to lead the Golden State Warriors to a 108-101 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday at the Chesapeake Energy Arena in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals.

  • [New York Post] Were the Mets really New York’s favorite 1986 team? (Sun, 29 May 2016 02:13:10 -0400)
    It is funny how certain teams assume certain years, right? If you say the year "1970” to a room crowded with New York sports fans, and ask them the first thing that pops into their minds, 99.9 percent of them will say "Knicks!” leaving the other 0.1 percent to explain (fruitlessly) why they would have…

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    54 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2016.05.29)

    1. ClashFan

      To continue the Fournier discussion from yesterday, say the Knicks offer him a deal with a one year opt out and big trade kicker (to try to keep Orlando from matching). Say he signs here and then opts out after one year. Would the Knicks have Bird Rights?

      I’m not saying that Phil would do this, though. Just wondering.

    2. Brian Cronin

      Every free agent on a team has some form of Bird Rights, but after just the one year, said form is so tiny that it is basically meaningless. The Knicks would have the right to give him a 20% raise over of the cap, that’s all (so if he made $15 million and his cap hold was $15 million and the Knicks were at or over the cap, they’d be able to go over the cap to give him a 20% raise – so basically no real help there).

      The rights are as follows:

      After one year: Just can give them a 20% raise over the cap
      After two years: Can give them the MLE over the cap
      After three years: Can sign them to any contract you want over the cap

    3. ClashFan

      Thanks, Brian. I guess when I think of “Bird Rights,” I think of the three year thing.

      Whatever the case, it seems that getting Fournier is highly unlikely unless a sign and trade.

    4. Brian Cronin

      Yeah, the three-year rights are definitely what we think of as “Bird Rights,” with the two-year rights being “Early Bird Rights.” It’s just that people often forget that even after one year, teams do have special rights for their own free agents. It’s just not worth much when you’re talking big free agents. It does allow you to give small raises to your veteran players, though. Like the Knicks were able to bring Jared Jeffries back on a small raise in 2011-12 after having him on the squad in 2010-11, despite being capped out in 2011-12 before re-signing him.

    5. Mr. Cock Jowles, If You Please

      Except that it wasn’t a reasonable disagreement. People on the Love side were incredulous.

      Actually, I’m still incredulous that the trade didn’t happen.

      By the way, Kevin Love has a .202 WS/48 this postseason. Let’s not act like the Cavs fucked up, either. Dude is playing superstar basketball on a similarly-stacked team.

    6. reub

      If we’re looking for value shooting guards with upside potential then Solomon Hill might be the man. His WS/48 for the season was a very good .117. For his 7 playoff games it was a great .169! His 3 pt percentage was through the roof too. He probably can be acquired for under $10 mil which could be a big bargain.

    7. Mr. Cock Jowles, If You Please

      Odd how good basketball players often have good stats, eh?

    8. lavor postell

      Actually, I’m still incredulous that the trade didn’t happen.

      Why? Because GSW turned out to be right? Is it that hard for you to accept that your incredulity was misguided?

    9. DRed

      Me, in the last thread:

      Now that OKC shot 3-23 from downtown I am convinced that the Waiters trade was a bad idea.

      I’d give Solomon Hill 12 million every day of the week before giving Fournier an offer Orlando wouldn’t match.

    10. lavor postell

      Why are we giving Solomon Hill $12m and why are we comparing a guy whose best season who came as a tweener forward to a 2 guard?

    11. Mr. Cock Jowles, If You Please

      Why? Because GSW turned out to be right? Is it that hard for you to accept that your incredulity was misguided?

      What could possibly make you think that I’m incredulous because Golden State’s decision worked out? I mean, think this through, lavor: if anything, I should question my thinking at the time because of how good Thompson has been. But why would I do that? At the time, the Warriors were unwilling to give up an average SG who played good defense for a player who was a multiple All-NBA selection and had put up historically-great rebounding numbers and outstanding offensive production, both volume- and efficiency-wise. If they had traded for Love, they would have been very, very competitive (barring injury) the following year. It was a gamble to not take guaranteed production in favor of a player who was still developing. We’re not talking about DeRozan or Evan Turner for Thompson. We’re talking about Kevin Love, who is currently a top player for an Eastern Conference Champion. I mean seriously, what the fuck?

      Does this not make sense to you? Out of all of the people with awful basketball hot-takes on this board — and you are most certainly among them — I expect a little more critical thinking out of you.

    12. er

      We’re talking about Kevin Love, who is currently a top player for an Eastern Conference Champion. I mean seriously, what the fuck?

      Lebron may not agree with you here. Haha just kidding.

    13. er

      But seriously your arguement is awful.

      You have advice or some knowledge on a stock. However your partner is convinced of the opposite and they have the final call. They pull the trigger and you make millions. Matter of fact you make the most regular season money of all time. But you are still salty because at the time your move still had some merit. How the fuck does that make sense?

    14. lavor postell

      At the time, the Warriors were unwilling to give up an average SG who played good defense for a player who was a multiple All-NBA selection and had put up historically-great rebounding numbers and outstanding offensive production, both volume- and efficiency-wise.

      Yeah, they believed that Klay in a better system could have a huge impact at SG and that giving him and other assets up for Love wasn’t worth it. They won a title. They were right.

      If they had traded for Love, they would have been very, very competitive (barring injury) the following year. It was a gamble to not take guaranteed production in favor of a player who was still developing

      No shit it was a gamble. They won their bet. They won 67 games and a title and now 73 games and a good shot at the title. Adding Love, would have effectively created a hole at SG which they wouldn’t have been able to fill and created issues for them defensively because Love is not a value add on that side of the ball while Klay is. You think Love was making them any better than they’ve been?

      We’re not talking about DeRozan or Evan Turner for Thompson. We’re talking about Kevin Love, who is currently a top player for an Eastern Conference Champion. I mean seriously, what the fuck?

      We’re talking Klay Thompson who is an elite 2 guard, was a key piece of a title winning team and of a 73 win historically good team. Who gives a shit about Kevin Love?

      Does this not make sense to you? Out of all of the people with awful basketball hot-takes on this board — and you are most certainly among them — I expect a little more critical thinking out of you.

      No, none of it makes sense, because you’re acting like not trading for Kevin Love has proven to be a blunder, when in reality they have had unprecedented success. That’s not a hot take it’s just facts.

    15. Mr. Cock Jowles, If You Please

      We’re talking Klay Thompson who is an elite 2 guard

      surely you understand the difference between “is” and “was” yeah

    16. Mr. Cock Jowles, If You Please

      I mean, when you play blackjack, do you hit on 17 and then pat yourself on the back for being dealt a 4?

    17. lavor postell

      I mean, when you play blackjack, do you hit on 17 and then pat yourself on the back for being dealt a 4?

      This analogy is crap.

      surely you understand the difference between “is” and “was” yeah

      surely you understand that they made a bet that they won on Mark Jackson having held those guys back right?

    18. swiftandabundant

      1. Kevin Love put up those numbers on horrible teams. Teams that never even sniffed the playoffs. I love how people only look at stats and not at the win/loss total of the team he played on.

      2. Kevin Love is older than lay Thompson.

      3. Kevin love is not a good defender. Kay Thompson is.

      4. They would have given up more than Klay for Love. At least a pick or another player.

      5. They believed in Klay’s ability to improve and also I’m sure they believed in the budding chemistry between Steph and Klay.

      GSW took a chance and they were right. It’s ok to admit you were wrong.

    19. DRed

      LAVOR DID YOU SEE THE PLAYOFF GAMES WHEN THE INDIANA PACERS TOOK THE TWO SEED TORONTO RAPTORS AND THEIR ALL STAR BACKCOURT TO SEVEN GAMES? WELL I DID, AND LET ME TELL YOU WHAT I SAW WHEN I SAW SOLOMON HILL. IT IS ROUGH ON THE COURT IN THE NATIONAL BASKETALL ASSOCIATION PLAYOFFS, BUT HE WAS RIDING. THAT YOUNG MAN SOLOMON HILL IS A ROUGHRIDER AND THE NEW YORK KNICKERBOCKERS NEED ROUGHRIDERS

    20. er

      @23 you managed to spell Mr Thompsons name 3 different ways in your post. You better put some Respek on that name.

    21. Donnie Walsh

      The trade was going to be Thompson, Barnes, and Lee for Love and Kevin Martin. So Martin would have played the 2 last year with Love at the 4, and I guess Green at the 3?

      That team probably isn’t winning 140 games together, but maybe.

      As it was, Kerr and West (the two that vetoed the trade) definitely believed in the synergy of Thompson and Curry, and probably believed that Green was ready to make a leap as the PF. (Kerr’s first order of business when he took over was to put Green into the starting lineup and move Igoudala to the bench).

      I think looking at the non-trade as “a mistake at the time that still turned out okay based on unforeseeable events” is a bit of a cop out, and ignores a lot of facts (that swiftandabundant laid out).

    22. DRed

      A more serious answer to your question, Lavor, is the Knicks need more good basketball players. Hill is a productive player who we can probably get for cheap (I think he’d sign for less than 12 mill) because he wasn’t a starter. I think Fourier is decent, but we’d probably have to overpay to get him.

    23. er

      Oh boy, Screaming A called KD and Westbrook chokers. KD is gonna put the paws on him smh

    24. swiftandabundant

      @ 26 – ah the ole lets point out spelling mistakes in order to undermine their argument trick.

      I’m writing on a blog in the comments section from my iPhone. I’m not submitting a grad school thesis.

    25. lavor postell

      I thought your first answer was serious :(

      I agree though about Hill. He’d be a very solid get for us an can be used to play small at the forward spots with Melo and maybe even used as a 2 for a bit in some switch everything 2-4 setups with him, Lance and Melo. I’d like to overpay to get one of Crabbe or Fournier as I feel both players have upside to justify overpaying for what they are now and then get a bench wing like a Hill or Henderson type that’s athletic and can be used in both traditional and small ball lineups. Hill I’d try to give a multi-year deal for, but if it’s Henderson probably just a 1+1 with a team option on the 2nd year.

      I do get why people have reservations about overpaying for Crabbe or Fournier. I think both are attainable, though Crabbe is likely an easier pull, but Orlando has some interesting dynamics and only offered Fournier a $9m/yr extension before the start of last season and even if they like him I don’t know if they feel despite his excellent season that he’s doubled his value.

      I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

    26. er

      @30 I agree with you. I was just quoting the great New Orleans philosopher Birdman. Sorry for the confusion.

      I suck at this tongue in cheek thing :(

    27. yellowboy90

      Is it smart to trust Hill’s less than 900 minutes of productivity over the nearly 2400 minutes of unproductive play he displayed last year?

    28. iserp

      A big part of the Klay Thompson vs Kevin Love was that K. Thompson was already considered a good defender, he played in a position more difficult to fill, was steadily improving and fitted better the rest of the team.. So even if GSW would have ‘won’ the trade, it was a bad decision for the future.

      The way Klay Thompson has improved and the emergence of Draymond Green makes it pointless to discuss it now, anyway.

    29. massive

      At the time of the deal Draymond Green nor Klay Thompson looked like All NBA level contributors. Anybody from the outside could have seen that, and it’s probably a safe bet to assume Curry, Iguodala, Green, Love, and Bogut would have won a championship last year. They also would have had Kevin Martin and he was still playing good basketball. Kudos to the Warriors for having that type of foresight, but it looked incredibly dumb to outsiders.

    30. iserp

      At the time of the deal Draymond Green nor Klay Thompson looked like All NBA level contributors. Anybody from the outside could have seen that, and it’s probably a safe bet to assume Curry, Iguodala, Green, Love, and Bogut would have won a championship last year. They also would have had Kevin Martin and he was still playing good basketball. Kudos to the Warriors for having that type of foresight, but it looked incredibly dumb to outsiders.

      Another point was that teams might have better info than outsiders… Right now we are seeing nice things with SportVU that we did not even know that existed two years ago.

      Most models we talk about are just simple linear regressions. Obviously much better than just ‘eye test’ but you can do better (and usually you can do better including using some kind of eye test, specially if it comes from multiple scouts, who gives some objectivity to it).

    31. ClashFan

      @31 I hope you’re right that Fournier or Crabbe are gettable. I think that they’ll get matched, but I hope I’m wrong. I’m still crossing my fingers on luring Batum away, but Fournier or Crabbe would be a great get, esp. if somehow for under $20m.

      Btw, great posts over on P&T.

    32. Mr. Cock Jowles, If You Please

      Another point was that teams might have better info than outsiders… Right now we are seeing nice things with SportVU that we did not even know that existed two years ago.

      Here’s the thing: SportVU does not tell you what a player does in the future. It cannot tell you that. It cannot predict that Klay would go from a .137 WP48 player to a .220 player over the course of one season. Shit, Wins Produced and CARMELO have projections, but they vary wildly due to the sheer number of non-quantifiable factors that not even the most advanced tracking systems can capture.

      Thompson became demonstrably better between ’13-’14 and ’14-’15. You don’t need SportVU to understand that jumping from 55.5% to 59.1% TS while increasing your FGA volume demonstrates a marked increase in player ability. Virtually all of his stats went up between those seasons. Do you mean to tell me that SportVU predicted that? That SportVU data can be manipulated to give high-probability predictions of future play?

      This is not a matter of them refusing to trade away a player who was “undervalued” via confirmation from sports tracking software. He got better immediately after the trade was denied. They refused to trade him on a bet that he would improve.

    33. DRed

      I do get why people have reservations about overpaying for Crabbe or Fournier. I think both are attainable, though Crabbe is likely an easier pull, but Orlando has some interesting dynamics and only offered Fournier a $9m/yr extension before the start of last season and even if they like him I don’t know if they feel despite his excellent season that he’s doubled his value.

      15 million a year (say) sounds insane for a averagish starter (THAT’S MORE THAN STEPH CURRY MAKES), but it’s probably about market value. So if either guy improves you’d have a good player on a pretty nice deal. And that’s never a bad thing. I would be okay with signing either guy, although I’m more inclined to ride or die with Galloway and Grant next year.

    34. Brian Cronin

      Remember when Pippen signed a high-price longterm extension and then the cap exploded and everyone made more than him, even low-level players? Good times.

    35. Brian Cronin

      The year of the final Bulls championship, Pippen was the sixth highest paid Bull and the 126th highest paid player in the league. High-larious.

    36. DRed

      The Knicks need to get a really good guy that they pay way below market value to. That’s what I would do.

    37. Grocer

      I guess if you could get those guys on four year deals at an amount that you believe will be good value down the road it’s fine? Do you believe enough in them to give that length of contract? Are you confident next years CBA discussions will make you look prescient and not idiotic? I worry that we could be locking ourselves into mediocrity with longer contracts but renting decent talent for one or two years seems foolish. I don’t think it matters what the roster looks like next year compared to what it looks like in three years. I’d rather stick with Grant/Galloway, maybe Thanasis, see if we can find gold in the junk pile and end up with a better pick.

    38. massive

      Solomon Hill seems like a great buy. He’s 25 and has been at worst average in the NBA.

    39. reub

      Thanasis has improved and has to make the roster. Aggressiveness, defense, tenacity, improving shot, team player. Oh yeah. And Giannis!

    40. bobneptune

      Things to like about the Knick’s off season so far:

      Zinger must be cleared to play or he wouldn’t have played an organized grab ass game in Athens.

      They sent a personal trainer to work Zinger properly while on vacation.

      Grant is working with a top shooter and PG the player formally known as Chris Jackson.

      Wroten is working his broken J with a guy with a perfect fundamental stroke Allan Houston.

      The way to Carnegie Hall is directed practice…. a good look and policy.

    41. reub

      I wish that Phil had 5 second round picks in this draft. There’s so many possibilities out there! Even another Hernangomez.

    42. bobneptune

      I mean, when you play blackjack, do you hit on 17 and then pat yourself on the back for being dealt a 4?

      Ever see James Caan and Lauren Hutton in the original “The Gambler” ? He hits a hard 18 saying to the dealer….”Give me the three!”

    43. bobneptune

      I mean, when you play blackjack, do you hit on 17 and then pat yourself on the back for being dealt a 4?

      No… but I’ve split a pair of 10’s a bunch of times when the true count per deck is > +6 vs the dealer’s 5 or 6 upcard :-)

    44. massive

      It’s gonna shatter my hopes and dreams when Giannis signs his five year max extension to play for the Bucks. Jason Kidd should be thrown in jail for his negligence of the 3 point shot in today’s game. Jabari Parker and Giannis would be so good if they had a better coach.

    45. Grocer

      No… but I’ve split a pair of 10’s a bunch of times when the true count per deck is > +6 vs the dealer’s 5 or 6 upcard :-)

      I have fond memories of a little old lady in Vegas turning to the young guy sitting next to her and saying “Honey, if you had a twenty inch dick would you cut it in half?”

    46. iserp

      Here’s the thing: SportVU does not tell you what a player does in the future. It cannot tell you that. It cannot predict that Klay would go from a .137 WP48 player to a .220 player over the course of one season.

      I dont know why you do place so much trust in that overtly simple linear regression. Klay Thompson might be doing well in other measurables. For example, this one seems interesting, and I dont think it is captured in WP:

      http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15530589/what-advanced-tracking-data-reveals-nba-shooters

      And maybe it is just a matter of time or using him correctly for him to improve.

      And as I said, even if he just improved a little (as he was 23 at the time), I think it was right to argue for Klay thinking about defense, fit and need. Not to mention all the faults that Kevin Love may have and are not captured by WP, namely that adding him to a team that already has good shooters might not be worth it due to his bad defense. It is also said that his teams dont rebound more with him on the court, but i cannot find a good reference for that.

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