Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, August 19, 2019

Knicks Morning News (2014.11.01)

  • [New York Daily News] J.R. Smith shows he fits in triangle by finding open man (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 03:35:33 GMT)

    It still may turn out to be the ultimate case of trying to squeeze a square peg into a triangular hole, but how about reputed ball stopper J.R.

  • [New York Times] James Rebounds, Leads Cavaliers Past Bulls (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 07:57:48 GMT)

    Never mind that sluggish opener.

  • [New York Times] Griffin Scores 39, Clippers Beat Lakers 118-111 (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 06:39:46 GMT)

    Blake Griffin used a banking analogy to describe his dominant performance against the Lakers on Friday night. And most of the time the Clippers got the ball to him, he was right on the money.

  • [New York Times] Gay Leads Kings Past Trail Blazers 103-94 (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 06:15:49 GMT)

    Rudy Gay knew he could play better and turned the trick Friday night, treating his teammates and the fans to a superb all-around performance.

  • [New York Times] Thomas, Morris Lead Pesky Suns Past Spurs 94-89 (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 05:03:54 GMT)

    Isaiah Thomas scored 10 of his 23 points in the fourth quarter, rallying Phoenix with a relentless series of driving layups, and the Suns beat the San Antonio Spurs 94-89 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] James Leads Cavaliers Past Bulls, 114-108 in OT (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 04:34:04 GMT)

    LeBron James simply wanted to shrug off a poor debut with his new, old team.

  • [New York Times] Wolves Give Ricky Rubio 4-Year, $56M Deal (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 04:27:51 GMT)

    The clock was ticking down toward the deadline for reaching agreement on an extension of his rookie contract, and just like he does on the court for the Minnesota Timberwolves, Ricky Rubio took charge.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: LeBron James’s 36 Points Lead Cavs Past Bulls (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 04:08:38 GMT)

    James was at his best after struggling the previous night, scoring 8 points in the extra period, and the Cavaliers picked up the win after opening with a loss at home to the Knicks.

  • [New York Times] Mayo Scores 25, Bucks Beat Sixers 93-81 (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 03:33:59 GMT)

    O.J Mayo scored 10 of his game-high 25 points in the fourth quarter, and rookie Jabari Parker had 11 points and 10 rebounds in his Milwaukee debut to lead the Bucks to a 93-81 win Friday night over the Philadelphia 76ers in their home opener.

  • [New York Times] Randolph Leads Grizzlies Over Pacers 97-89 (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 02:42:46 GMT)

    Zach Randolph gave over four dozen tickets to family and friends from his hometown in Indiana.

  • [New York Times] National Basketball Association Roundup (Sat, 01 Nov 2014 00:36:44 GMT)

    Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook suffered a small fracture in his right hand Thursday night and is expected to miss four to six weeks.

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    28 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.11.01)

    1. Totes McGoats

      Here’s a thought:
      How about Greg Monroe over Marc Gasol next summer? Should be cheaper and he’s younger and he also thrived in an offense at Georgetown that was predicated on ball movement. And he does the same things Gasol does, albeit Gasol is a better defender. But Fish can always start Cole next to him or Phil can draft or sign a defending big. Maybe we end up drafting high enough to land a Cauley-Stein. Inking Monroe at a lower price than Gasol would also allow the Phil to add relatively the same skill set to the roster while maintaining some financial flexibility. Hopefully enough to bring in another really nice piece. I kinda like that idea.

    2. llcoolbp

      Don’t know how much “cheaper” Monroe will be. He’ll likely get max extension, and I think he will be restricted. But I’m not sure. I would love to have Greg Monroe on the Knicks, no doubt.

    3. max fisher-cohen

      Not a fan of Monroe. After his first season, I thought maybe he could be a Carlos Boozer type player: a sieve defensively, but more than make up for it with rebounding and scoring in bulk with efficiency.

      But he didn’t improve much his second year and got worse his third. He hasn’t improved enough as a mid range shooter to give any real spacing, and his post game hasn’t gotten to a point where he’s legitimately scary down there, allowing him to force doubles and utilize his passing. At this point, he’s kinda like Chris Webber after his knees went out: plenty willing to shoot and able to make nice passes and rebound pretty well, but just too slow and inefficient to be a big part of a winning team.

      If the Knicks can’t get Marc Gasol (or Kawhi Leonard!) next summer, and there are no opportunities to add equivalently talented players through trade, they absolutely cannot repeat 2010 by overpaying for a 2nd rate player. Their only rational option will be to play the Atlanta game and wait until the end of free agency hoping to find steals on role players after all other teams have used their cap space. If that fails, well, they’ll just have to wait another year.

    4. Cole Jowles, #1 WP48 Knicks Superstar

      Thanks pt. One question that I’ve asked about WP several times but never gotten an answer to is: does the team with the highest WP score based on that game’s stat win that game 100% of the time?

      This is an impossibility. The box score lacks information, and statistically improbable things happen. You could have a game in which your team gives up only 5 turnovers, but they all turn into Josh Smith corner threes in transition. Or you could give up 20 turnovers, but they turn into 20 Shumpert bricked layups. There’s no way to account for the missing information in the box score, which is likely regularly distributed but certainly prone to fluctuation.

      If turnovers (e.g.) had a perfectly forecastable outcome (rather than a fluctuating outcome), we’d have a perfect statistic.

    5. JK47

      Monroe is a soft player. I have no interest in a center that plays soft ass defense. He is very overrated. He is the kind of player that dumb teams sign to max contracts.

    6. ptmilo

      I agree with #6, which is similar to the answer I just tried to give on the previous thread. I agree even more with #5/#7. He is not bad. He is young. I think his career will end up looking a lot like Carlos Boozer’s, which is not such a bad thing despite what Boozer has become past his prime. He will likely get max or near max and not be worth it. He is way worse than Gasol. Even with Gasol’s somewhat ugly age I would much rather have him at max than Monroe at near max.

    7. Jake S.

      Can someone please explain why they declined Shane Larkin’s option? I have no idea if he fits in their scheme or if he’s even a player, but you don’t let 1st round picks walk when you can keep them on the roster for practically nothing. That $1.68 million isn’t going to be the difference between signing a marquee free agent or not. Maddening.

    8. JK47

      Larkin is not a great fit for the system. He is the prototypical “waterbug” point guard, a guy whose main strength is his dazzling speed. Phil Jackson teams have never used this type of point guard very much. There’s also the issue of his length. With his height and wing span, he’s one of the smallest players in the league.

      I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Larkin’s play so far, but I can see why they don’t see him as a key rotation piece going forward.

    9. Z-man

      @6 but the Josh Smith 3’s would make his (and the team’s) WP go up for that game and the 20 bricked layups would make his (and the team’s) WP go down.
      It just seems to me that looking at the stat on a game-by-game basis and examining the variance when it does not match the outcome of the game might help to further refine it and might make it easier to sell to skeptics.

    10. max fisher-cohen

      @Jake S.

      It’s totally stupid to opt out of Larkin. He’s played, what, like 550 NBA minutes. If you need the extra $1.65m, which equates to ~$1.1m when you account for the open roster spot hold, trade him. I’m sure there’s a team out there that would give up a 2nd rounder for him.

    11. JK47

      I guess the downside risk would be that Larkin plays like crap, or barely gets any burn this year, and then you’re in a situation where you have to pay somebody to take him off your hands. I don’t agree with the move– I wish they would have held onto Larkin– but I’m just trying to guess what their thought process is.

    12. Cole Jowles, #1 WP48 Knicks Superstar

      http://hoopshabit.com/2014/07/23/nba-advanced-stats-four-factors-winning/

      “The R^2 between the Four Factors and Net Rating is 96.2 percent, which means that based on this model about that much of net rating can be discovered just by knowing the Four Factors, which is an incredible insight. There’s some statistical uncertainty in this but the answer is with a large likelihood between 94 and 98 percent in any case.

      If you type into the equation above exactly the league averages for each category, you should get a 41-win team. This model doesn’t do exactly that and produces something more equivalent to a 40.7 win squad. So it’s pretty close.”

      Wins Produced is a lot like the four factors. I don’t know how examining statistical aberrations can help you change your regression analysis. At that R^2, why not just accept that there are things that the box score has a difficult time explaining? It’s not like we’re talking about football, here, where it’s nearly impossible to forecast anything at all (except for a sucky Jets team, which is damn near a constant).

    13. Jake S.

      Thanks, Max, I didn’t realize that the cap hold was even less than his salary number. And I hear what you’re saying JK47, I just don’t think an athletic first rounder on a cheap 1-year contract (with a team option for one more year, I believe) is at all difficult to unload. See what you have, at least. You can drop him next year if you decide he’s a bad fit or just can’t play. They’re effectively throwing away one of the assets they gained in the Chandler trade — I just don’t get it.

    14. yellowboy90

      Wasn’t Tyrone Lue similar in size to Larkin? He is there choice but I would have thought they could have picked up the option and if it didn’t work out use the stretch provision.

    15. nicos

      I’m a bit puzzled by not picking up Larkin’s contract as well. Am I right in thinking that now the Knicks can’t pay him more than the 1.6m option next year so that if he does play well they’ll have no chance of resigning him? I guess now he’s an expiring contract which may give him some value in a mid-season trade but you’d think that if he’s even half-way decent he’d probably have more trade value if he’s signed cheaply for next season. His ceiling is probably Aaron Brooks but that’s a nice backup if he’s as cheap as Larkin would be next year. Even if you envision him as your 13th-15th guy (and given that fact that he ain’t growing a couple of inches any time soon I can understand that) 1.6m isn’t crippling for an emergency point guard.

    16. DRed

      Its obviously part of Phil’s plan to get Kawhi.
      A monk told Joshu: “I have just entered the monastery. Please teach me.”

      Joshu asked: “Have you eaten your rice porridge?”

      The monk replied: “I have eaten.”

      Joshu said: “Then you had better wash your bowl.”

      At that moment the monk was enlightened.

      Think about it

    17. Brian Cronin

      The Knicks have his Early Bird rights, so they can re-sign him up to the MLE. So they have the opportunity to see if they want to use his cap space and if they don’t need his space, then they can resign him.

    18. Kahnzy

      Watching Dallas and NO on League Pass; three thoughts:

      1) Our call guys are soooo much better. Seriously, Clyde needs to call a game on national TV with Breen and JVG.

      2) I miss Tyson Chandler

      3) Anthony Davis becomes a free agent in two seasons (I’m assuming NO picks up his option for ’15-’16). Boy I hope we have cap room then.

    19. Owen

      I have had the fantasy also, but Anthony Davis, I am told, by capologists far more erudite than I, will never be a Knick….

    20. Kahnzy

      Is that because we’ve never shown an ability to plan that far in advance, or is there an actual legit reason?

    21. Owen

      I can’t actually remember. I surfaced for about three emails this summer and one of them expressed my fervent desire to see AD in orange and white. I was scolded, nay lambasted, for entertaining such a ridiculous fantasy.

      Don’t remember the details though. I think New Orleans just has so much more money and security to offer….

    22. vincoug

      We have no chance of signing Anthony Davis because he will become a restricted free agent and New Orleans will have the right to match any offer. So, unless Davis accepts his qualifying offer and plays an extra year way below his actual value, like Greg Monroe this season, no one has a chance of signing him away from NO.

    23. yellowboy90

      The hope for Davis would be that the Pelicans continue miss the playoffs and his core people getting in his ear telling him to get out early and force a trade to a big market where you can form a real team around you.

      Learn from KD, Lebron, KG, and etc. Lebron and KG left and got their ring KD tried to make it work and he is still looking. Look how Chris Paul chances improved after he was traded. Leaving early gives you more time at success because you never know. blah blah blah

      He stills resigns with N.O.

    24. max fisher-cohen

      If Anthony Davis forced his way out of New Orleans despite NO being willing to match any RFA offers, the response from (rightfully?) paranoid small market owner majority at the end of this CBA would unify the owners and likely end up costing the players as a ton of money.

    25. Donnie Walsh

      It took KG 12 years to give up on Minnesota. LeBron stayed in Cleveland for 7 years. Paul stayed with the hornets for 6 years. I don’t think there is a modern example of a top pick leaving money on the table just to change teams. Anthony Davis is going to sign an extension with NO. Then, in 4 years, maybe he’ll be available, a la Dwight Howard. But that will be in 2018. (And at that time there’s certainly no guarantee that the Knicks will be any more attractive than the Pelicans, let alone the other teams in the league).

      But I guess the day we stop dreaming is the day we die, so dream on fans!

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