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Saturday, October 25, 2014

Knicks Morning News (2014.08.24)

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Loss to Lynx Ends Hammon’s Playing Career (Sun, 24 Aug 2014 04:15:17 GMT)
    Minnesota won at San Antonio, 94-89, to advance to the W.N.B.A.’s Western Conference finals and end the playing career of the Stars’ Becky Hammon.

  • 48 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2014.08.24)

    1. Brian Cronin

      It’s interesting to note that the Love deal ended up including the Miami 2015 first round pick and not Cleveland’s own 2015 first rounder. That’s a significantly better asset than Cleveland’s own pick. So it was surprising to me that not only did Minny get that pick in the deal but that they then flipped it for Thaddeus Young. I like Young and I think he fits in very well in Minny, but I don’t know if a year’s worth of Thaddeus Young is worth what could very well be a lottery pick (but more likely a pick around #15-16).

      I suppose Minny really thinks that they’re going to compete this season. If so, it will be interesting to see who they try to acquire with the $6 million trade exception they picked up in the deal.

    2. er

      This will be one of the most interesting deals 5yrs from now. For a team over the barrel minny did really well. And wiggy is the highest “potential”guy traded in a while. We will see if this motivates him to realize it

    3. Brian Cronin

      Oh yeah, excepting deals that were really more “draft pick” trades (like Chris Webber being traded to Golden State, Dirk being traded to Dallas and Vinsanity being traded to Toronto), Wiggins is easily the biggest potential guy dealt this early in his career. Pervis Ellison, also a #1 pick, was dealt before his second season. Back in the day, Cliff Hagan was a highly touted prospect when he was dealt as part of the deal for the pick that became Bill Russell (while obviously the Celtics dominated that trade, two of the guys they dealt for Russell did become Hall of Famers – Hagan and Ed McCauley, who was a veteran at the time, though, so the Hawks didn’t get as much use out of him as they did out of Hagan).

      Stuff like this, though, is really rare. So yeah, definitely a fascinating transaction.

    4. DRed

      The Wolves did well enough to get Wiggins given the constraints they were operating under, and did the right thing by getting a more valuable draft pick from Cleveland. . .but then they totally fucked up and dealt that pick for one or two years of Thad “decent player” Young. You just traded the best player your franchise has had since KG and you play in the Western Conference. Why are you in win now mode?

    5. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      but then they totally fucked up and dealt that pick for one or two years of Thad “decent player” Young.

      17.9 PPG. Tied for 34th in the league. Just less than Chris Paul, just more than Zach Randolph. This means that he can be trusted to bail out the team when some low-volume player mucks up a possession. That’s my hot take.

    6. Brian Cronin

      The Wolves did well enough to get Wiggins given the constraints they were operating under, and did the right thing by getting a more valuable draft pick from Cleveland. . .but then they totally fucked up and dealt that pick for one or two years of Thad “decent player” Young. You just traded the best player your franchise has had since KG and you play in the Western Conference. Why are you in win now mode?

      Yeah, it’s the whole “He’s only signed for one season (plus a player option for the 2015-16 season” thing that gets me. A likely mid-teens pick is a lot to give up for a guy like that (especially for one who is already making nearly $10 million a year) when you’re likely not going to compete for the playoffs that first season. Not only that, but the project the Wolves got in the deal, Bennett, plays the same position as Young!

    7. lavor postell

      17.9 PPG. Tied for 34th in the league. Just less than Chris Paul, just more than Zach Randolph. This means that he can be trusted to bail out the team when some low-volume player mucks up a possession. That’s my hot take.

      Thanks for that valuable insight. Please tell us for the millionth time how PPG is overrated like you’re the only person aware of the secrets of TS% and eFG%.

    8. ptmilo

      Wiggins is easily the biggest potential guy dealt this early in his career.

      Well, maybe not easily.

      Steve Francis was also dealt a couple of months after the draft. He went #2 behind Brand; he had plenty of hype (among other things) surrounding him at the time. Oddly, Brand was also traded very early in his career after a promising start by the Bulls when they got Tyson Chandler.

      Charlotte traded Kobe the summer after they drafted him for for Divac. It was in a sense a draft day trade, but it’s very similar to Wiggins for Love except that Kobe went #13. But that wasn’t really representative of how people thought of his potential at the time.

      Billy Owens went #3, but the Kings traded him to GSW a few months later in that depressing deal that broke up Run TMC.

      Then of course you have the Danny Ferry for Ron Harper trade after Ferry refused to play for the Clippers, which is also in the ball park. That Cleveland draft where they got Harper, Daugherty, and Price (and Johnny Newman!) the same year was incredible. They also took KJ the next year.

    9. Brian Cronin

      I don’t think draft day trades really count, though, so I’d omit trades like Kobe (or the other ones I mentioned, like Dirk, C-Webb, Vinsanity and Penny Hardaway).

      I thought about Francis and Ferry, as well, but I think they also sort of stand out as unique examples – here we’re talking about someone drafting a player and then using that player after the draft as an acquiring asset. Not guys who had to be traded like Francis and Ferry.

      Owens definitely does count, but I’d put Wiggins now over Owens then as an asset.

    10. dtrickey

      Now that the trade is official and the parameters of the deal have been made public, I think the Wolves came out a little bit better than what was initially reported. Getting Young and Miami’s 1st rounder sweetens the deal, rather than just getting Wiggins and Bennett plus the Cavs pick. Probably not really going to see the full impact of the deal for a few years, but they ended up doing alright.

    11. nicos

      I definitely think you can make the argument that they did better than Denver did when trading Carmelo though only time will tell. Love > Melo (though I don’t think his rep among GMs is all that much better than Melo’s was when he got traded) but they got a potentially much sweeter package given that Wiggins and Bennett are going to be a whole lot cheaper than Gallo/Chandler who were both only a year away from free agency.

    12. Z

      Not sure why draft day trades don’t count. It seems that the important thing is that unproven “upside” gets traded for a known entity in a lot of sports. The timing of this particular trade got a bit kooky because the world revolves around LeBron and he couldn’t sign with Cleveland until after the draft. If he’d been on the Cavs in June, I think this would have been a draft day trade.

      Ultimately, I think it’s pretty similar in thinking to when Atlanta traded Pau Gasol before he played a single game for them. They acquired Shareef Abdur-Rahim. The Hawks’ GM said at the time: “We wanted to acquire talent with this draft pick that would make us the best we could be over the next five-plus years. We don’t have to wait for Shareef to develop, and he has a big upside because he’s only 24… We could have waited for [Gasol] to become Shareef, but we thought, ‘Why not take Shareef now?

      Sure, the Hawks weren’t a piece away at the time, but the thought process is clear. It didn’t turn out in their favor, and this one probably won’t come back to bite the Cavs. But if Wiggins has the career of Pau Gasol, Minnesota will have come out great in this.

    13. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      Wasn’t Brand traded for Curry (or Chandler) after winning Rookie of the Year?

    14. Z-man

      I like that we keep revisiting the WP argument, and this is a great time to be doing it. We’re in the dog days and stats dating back many years are finally readily available.

      As always, I am super impressed with the quality of argument on both (many) sides of this debate. Alas, my position is unchanged. WP is a useful stat when utilized properly. It reinforces the notion that we have to think more carefully about all that goes into point creation and winning basketball.

      When used specifically to compare players with similar roles, there is no doubt that WP scores are excellent indicators of efficiency and overall contribution to team success. However, low-volume/high efficiency scorers who are excellent per-minute rebounders are overvalued, especially when compared to primary scorers.

      It is especially useful in looking at overall team construction and likelihood of team success, and in finding high-value/low-cost players to fill out a roster.

      The lack of a credible way to reliably and accurately account for defensive efficiency on an individual level or interaction effects on both ends.

    15. iserp

      17.9 PPG. Tied for 34th in the league. Just less than Chris Paul, just more than Zach Randolph. This means that he can be trusted to bail out the team when some low-volume player mucks up a possession. That’s my hot take.

      I am pretty sure you liked him last year. Young player sporting a 0.144 WP48 (.128 and .134 the years before).

      But you know, his role changed and he had to take on the scoring role in his team: 0.015 WP48 Now he SUCKS! Surely something happened to him, like he got into drugs, or started living at McDonalds. How could a .140 WP48 player be a .015 player the next year? I am pretty sure the rest of his teammates did not have anything to do, after all, they sold all those really bad players by WP48: Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Nick Young. The 76ers should have been a powerhouse, but then Thad Young decided to be a much worse player. I dont understand anything!!!!

    16. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      But you know, his role changed and he had to take on the scoring role in his team: 0.015 WP48 Now he SUCKS! Surely something happened to him, like he got into drugs, or started living at McDonalds.

      Do you want to know what happened to him? Here’s a quick take:

      12-13: 0.1 3PA/48
      13-14: 5.2 3PA/48 at a 30% rate

      If “turning into Josh Smith” is something I can vote for, that’s it.

    17. lavor postell

      Do you want to know what happened to him? Here’s a quick take:

      12-13: 0.1 3PA/48
      13-14: 5.2 3PA/48 at a 30% rate

      If “turning into Josh Smith” is something I can vote for, that’s it.

      And why did that happen? Is it possibly because maybe with every other semi competent player gone from the team Young was thrust into a role where he had to take shots outside of his comfort zone?

    18. lavor postell

      hahahaha, are you serious

      Why don’t you have a look at the Sixers’ end season roster and let me know who they should have been running offense through. Henry Sims? Tony Wroten Jr? Jarvis Varnado? Arnett Moultrie?

      Somebody has to take shots, even if they are shitty ones.

    19. DRed

      Even if Thad Young returns to being good Thad Young next year, and maybe even gets a bit better, he’s still not a guy a team like Minny should b trading for. If he plays well, he’s probably opting out. But that level of play isn’t likely to turn Minny into a contender. Let’s say things go really well for the TWolves and they get the 7 seed in the West. Then they can overpay Thad Young for 3-4 years? That’s not a great use of a valuable pick.

    20. lavor postell

      Even if Thad Young returns to being good Thad Young next year, and maybe even gets a bit better, he’s still not a guy a team like Minny should b trading for. If he plays well, he’s probably opting out. But that level of play isn’t likely to turn Minny into a contender. Let’s say things go really well for the TWolves and they get the 7 seed in the West. Then they can overpay Thad Young for 3-4 years? That’s not a great use of a valuable pick.

      I agree with this. I also think it’s unlikely that he’s going to be very good as a player Minnesota is going to lean on offensively. That trade makes little sense to me.

    21. Alecto

      I mean isn’t the more likely scenario that Thad Young is horrible at shooting the 3–which is what his stats show? So what if he was “forced” to take 3’s (which I don’t believe), it doesn’t change the fact that he is a terrible 3 point shooter

    22. lavor postell

      I mean isn’t the more likely scenario that Thad Young is horrible at shooting the 3–which is what his stats show? So what if he was forced to take 3?s, it doesn’t change the fact that he is a terrible 3 point shooter

      Yes he’s a terrible three point shooter, so obviously it’s going to suck for him and his team when he’s asked to shoulder a heavy offensive burden and take shots completely out of his comfort zone. My point is I don’t think Young takes those shots if he plays with a couple of guys that are better at scoring than he is.

      So as a coach I’d rather have Thaddeus Young never take 3’s, but I’d rather have him jack up shots from anywhere on the floor over a bunch of D-League scrubs my front office signed to ensure we don’t win more than 20 games. Brett Brown strikes me as a fairly intelligent guy and I doubt that if he had some semblance of NBA talent on his roster he’d have been happy with Young camping out beyond the arc.

    23. DRed

      The other thing to remember about Thad last season is that Philly might not having been trying to win games. Yeah, Thad’s usage was a career high, but not by much. Philly might have just wanted to see how he’d do shooting lots of threes, because why the fuck not? If it turned out he could hit a lot of them they’d have an even more valuable trade chip.

    24. ptmilo

      Do you want to know what happened to him? Here’s a quick take:

      12-13: 0.1 3PA/48
      13-14: 5.2 3PA/48 at a 30% rate

      The 76ers last year excluding Young’s three point attempts had the following offensive experience:

      FGA: 6858
      Possessions implied by FTA: 845
      Turnovers: 1384
      Total opportunities: 9087
      Points: 7885

      Points per opportunity: 0.868
      Young 3 point efficiency: 0.925

      So on that horrible team, Young’s three pointers may well have made sense. What about the counterfactual, where Young instead uses those opportunities with a more efficient shot? Young’s efficiency excluding his three point shots was 0.897, worse than his three point productivity. Young’s 3 point shooting thus looks rational and valued added last year. It isn’t useful or even meaningful to blame his “decline” on an increased volume of low productivity shots that was nonetheless more productive than the rest of his shooting and more productive than the team’s opportunity cost. You can either blame his supposed decline on team on noise, on his non-3pt shooting performance, or on context (this one), but not his sudden romance with the 3.

    25. Brian Cronin

      Wasn’t Brand traded for Curry (or Chandler) after winning Rookie of the Year?

      He was traded after his second season.

    26. Brian Cronin

      Yikes, apparently the Warriors could have done the following deal:

      Thompson/Lee for Love
      Barnes for Afflalo

      But passed on it.

      They really like Thompson way too much (and I actually do like Thompson, but this is just silly).

    27. lavor postell

      Yikes, apparently the Warriors could have done the following deal:

      Thompson/Lee for Love
      Barnes for Afflalo

      But passed on it.

      They really like Thompson way too much (and I actually do like Thompson, but this is just silly).

      If that’s true I’m really happy Kerr passed on us. Afflalo is a better player right now than Thompson and Love is miles ahead of anybody else involved in that trade. A starting 5 of Curry, Afflalo, Iggy, Love and whoever replaces Bogut once he gets injured would be formidable even in the West.

    28. Brian Cronin

      Ah. Weird – especially how Jerry West has that much control over the franchise. He’s a consultant!!

    29. lavor postell

      I don’t really understand the structure of the Warriors’ front office. It’s very Knicks-esque with an owner who seems hands on and an unclear power structure among the executive (or consultants in this case).

    30. Cincinnatus

      Points per opportunity: 0.868
      Young 3 point efficiency: 0.925

      So on that horrible team, Young’s three pointers may well have made sense. What about the counterfactual, where Young instead uses those opportunities with a more efficient shot? Young’s efficiency excluding his three point shots was 0.897, worse than his three point productivity. Young’s 3 point shooting thus looks rational and valued added last year. It isn’t useful or even meaningful to blame his “decline” on an increased volume of low productivity shots that was nonetheless more productive than the rest of his shooting and more productive than the team’s opportunity cost. You can either blame his supposed decline on team on noise, on his non-3pt shooting performance, or on context (this one), but not his sudden romance with the 3.

      wow, this is one of the more insightful things i’ve read on this site using statistics. thank you. so much better than the usual “blahblahblah WP48 says this, i’m so smart i don’t overvalue ppg” or “i’ve seen Jeff Adrien play 40 times last year (yeah right) and Team USA would have won a gold medal with him in 2004.”

    31. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      It isn’t useful or even meaningful to blame his “decline” on an increased volume of low productivity shots that was nonetheless more productive than the rest of his shooting and more productive than the team’s opportunity cost. You can either blame his supposed decline on team on noise, on his non-3pt shooting performance, or on context (this one), but not his sudden romance with the 3.

      I fail to see how the decline in the productivity of his teammates (thus increasing the marginal value of his poor 3P%) relates to the decline of his production as an individual. 31% on 5 3PA/48 in 2014 is bad, bad and bad. And it affects his productivity according to WP48, which is (surprise) what I was initially referring to. Maybe we should be talking about his assisted basket rate.

    32. Nick C.

      So as I understand it the Thaddeus Young argument is this: he used to put up decent WP48, last year he took a ton of 3s at sub league average percentages which meant his WP48 sucked, but his teammates sucked worse as did his 2pt shooting so his taking a ton of sucky by NBA standards 3s was good by tanking Sixer standards.

    33. MSA

      It really doesn’t matter if Young shooting 5 3P/48 at 30% is better than the other options.

      Shooting this bad from 3 will not help you win games. Period.

      It doesn’t make any sense to give him any kind of reward for sucking less than his teammates.

    34. ptmilo

      And it affects his productivity according to WP48, which is (surprise) what I was initially referring to. Maybe we should be talking about his assisted basket rate.

      What’s funny is that Young’s three point shooting was NOT an important factor in dropping his Wins Produced last year from 7.9 to 0.9. To get a sense (these estimates are prior to minor adjustments in the ultimate WP formula but they are not important) of what really dropped his value according to Berrianity by importance, the big drop offs came from:

      1. Fewer rebounds: -3.23
      2. More turnovers: -2.55
      3. Lower 2PT FG% -2.48

      His below average three point shooting only dropped his WP by -0.746, it barely mattered.

    35. Nick C.

      @42 that’s interesting. So he got worse all over not just with the threes which was just something one person mentioned and many latched onto because it seemed fairly logical.

    36. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      MEA CULPA GUYS MEA CULPA

      “So as I understand it the Thaddeus Young argument is this: he used to put up decent WP48, last year he took a ton of 3s at sub league average percentages which meant his WP48 sucked, but his teammates sucked worse as did his 2pt shooting so his taking a ton of sucky by NBA standards 3s was good by tanking Sixer standards.”

      Yeah, that’s the argument. Makes sense, too. Apparently he just got worse at everything last year. Or his teammates made him worse. Or both. You decide.

    37. Cincinnatus

      you said this Jowles:

      Do you want to know what happened to him? Here’s a quick take:

      12-13: 0.1 3PA/48
      13-14: 5.2 3PA/48 at a 30% rate

      It turns out your analysis was off and you were wrong. For someone who loves to talk about wp48 and how other posters here are clueless, Ptmilo did a heck of a better job actually doing some real statistical analysis and showing that Young’s three point shooting was an extremely small part in his wp48 decline. it’s ok to be wrong without getting sarcastic, defensive, and deflecting all the time.

    38. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      I truly apologize and hope you will forgive me for my error, even though his 3PT shooting did actually make him a less productive player than had he not taken those shots at all.

      I believe in a thing called counterfactuals (just listen to the eFG% of my heart)

    39. DRed

      Well, Thad did replace a lot of shots at the rim with 3s, which helps explain at least some of the decline in his 2pt FG%. Taking 5 3s a game was definitely not a good idea. And I don’t know that can be explained away by saying he had to carry a much more significant burden on offense, because his usage didn’t increase significantly.

    40. Cole Aldrich's Second Cousin's Best Friend's Boyfriend

      Probably more like 3.5 a game. GET THE FACST SRAIGHT

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